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Speaker 1: Hey there everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast,

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Speaker 1: brought to you by Bett MGM. I am your host,

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Speaker 1: Dan Harris and you can find me on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: Dan Harris Ady. It is time for our early look

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Speaker 1: at next week's lines, and with me to break it

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Speaker 1: all down is Rich Ryan, host of the Gridiron Gamble podcast.

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Speaker 1: You can find Rich on Twitter at rich t Ryan. Rich.

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Speaker 1: Thanks again for coming back on the show. How's it going.

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Speaker 2: It's doing good. It's a victory Monday for us miserable

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Speaker 2: Jets fans, which they come few and far between nowadays.

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Speaker 1: Second in a row. Thh man, I mean, let's go.

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Speaker 1: We're an unstoppable juggernaut. Now, you were saying right before

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Speaker 1: you got on that you are actually going? Are you

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Speaker 1: going this weekend? Next weekend? When are you going to

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Speaker 1: the game? I'm going to the game.

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Speaker 2: We'll be discussing later in this podcast this weekend, heading

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Speaker 2: back east from South Orange County out here in California

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Speaker 2: to New Jersey to watch our fight in New York

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Speaker 2: Jets take on the Oakland.

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Speaker 1: Oh baby, Well, I look forward to hearing your thoughts

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Speaker 1: on that, because it's actually kind of an interesting line

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Speaker 1: at least from my perspective. So we are going to

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Speaker 1: get into that and all the games on the week

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Speaker 1: twelve slate, and when we do, we're going to be

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Speaker 1: using the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com. And

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Speaker 1: you surely know by now that the consensus odds over

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Speaker 1: there are the aggregation of odds that are available on

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Speaker 1: the market. As always, there are differences in the various

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Speaker 1: sports books, so when you're looking shop around, but there

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Speaker 1: are occasionally, you know, outliers there that you can really

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Speaker 1: take advantage of. And also if you ever want to

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Speaker 1: see how I or any of the top sports betting

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Speaker 1: experts are leaning on any given bet at any given time,

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Speaker 1: you can see that also on bettingpros dot com. All right, Rich,

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Speaker 1: let's dive right in here with the Thursday night game.

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Speaker 1: You've got the Colts at the Texans. The Texans here

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Speaker 1: laying three and a half and the over under at

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Speaker 1: forty five and a half. There's a lot to on

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Speaker 1: back here with you know, both teams. Really the Colts

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Speaker 1: grab the big win against the Jaguars, but they lose

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Speaker 1: Marlon Mack to a fractured hand. He's certainly not going

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Speaker 1: to play in this game, and probably not for the

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Speaker 1: foreseeable future. It's going to be some doination of Jordan

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Speaker 1: Wilkins or Jonathan Williams and naihim Hines. We've got possibly

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Speaker 1: t Y Hilton making it back today. There was a

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Speaker 1: positive report from him in practice, So it's unclear a

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Speaker 1: little bit what we're going to see out of this offense.

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Speaker 1: On the Texan side, pretty embarrassed by Baltimore. There's really

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Speaker 1: no shame in that. Baltimore is just a total juggernaut

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Speaker 1: at the moment. But the Shaun Watson, he gets beat

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Speaker 1: up pretty good. Maybe will Fuller returns here at the least.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you assume that the Texans are going to

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Speaker 1: be pretty angry looking to bounce back. So how do

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Speaker 1: you feel here about laying three and a half at

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Speaker 1: home over under forty five and a half?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot here, and on the short week,

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Speaker 2: it makes things even more interesting. This is a four

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Speaker 2: and a half look ahead, moved down a point. Colt's

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Speaker 2: bouncing back with Brissette under center, and like you said,

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Speaker 2: Texans embarrassed by the Ravens last week at home. But

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Speaker 2: it looks like both the bets and the money are

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Speaker 2: pouring in on Houston. I'm seeing sixty six percent of

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Speaker 2: the bets, seventy six percent of the money, and I

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Speaker 2: think I kind of agree with them. And if you

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Speaker 2: look at that Texans Ravens game, obviously, one of the

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Speaker 2: things that everybody talked about today was the missed pass

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Speaker 2: interference on that deep ball to DeAndre Hopkins and the

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Speaker 2: subsequent stand call on the challenge of the PI, and

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Speaker 2: that game just kind of got away from the Texans

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Speaker 2: and it is an embarrassing spot, especially coming off of

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Speaker 2: a bye and the Ravens coming off of that massive

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Speaker 2: Patriots game. You would think that would be a nice

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Speaker 2: merge for the Texans to take advantage of it. They

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Speaker 2: just kind of got steamrolled there. I think we're getting

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Speaker 2: a bit of value with that line coming down these

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Speaker 2: two teams, in addition to leaning a little bit towards

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Speaker 2: three and a half. Last time they went out, they

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Speaker 2: combined for fifty three points. Right now, the total sitting

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Speaker 2: at forty five and a half. So if there's more

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Speaker 2: positive news on t Y Hilts, and I think I'm

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Speaker 2: leaning towards the over as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree with the over. At the very least,

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Speaker 1: I do think that this is going to be a

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Speaker 1: game that's going to be high scoring on Thursday nights.

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Speaker 1: The defenses, they just have such a short time to

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Speaker 1: recover from those you know, hard hitting games that they

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Speaker 1: have the day before. As you said, a lot is

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Speaker 1: going to depend on what we see from the Colts

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Speaker 1: practice reports. It's really tough on that Thursday game. But

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Speaker 1: I agree with you, and you know, I look at

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Speaker 1: the game and I feel like, you know, I don't

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Speaker 1: feel like I should like the Texans at three and

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Speaker 1: a half, but I do. I certainly lean that way.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's gonna move very much, as you said,

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Speaker 1: you know, originally you know that the line has come down,

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Speaker 1: but there is a lot of money coming in on

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Speaker 1: the Texans at this point. So I do like them

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Speaker 1: at three and a half, and I do like the

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Speaker 1: over right now at forty five and a half, even

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Speaker 1: without having the details on what's going to happen with

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Speaker 1: you know, some of the Colts skill players, because I

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Speaker 1: do think they'll still be able to put up points regardless.

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Speaker 1: Let's move on here to the bucks at the Falcons.

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Speaker 1: Falcons here are laying four and a half and the

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Speaker 1: over under is at fifty two and a half. That's

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Speaker 1: come down a bit. It was at fifty four when

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Speaker 1: I checked yesterday. I'm not really sure what has gotten

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Speaker 1: into the Falcons here. Things are really working for them

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Speaker 1: right now. They still cannot run the ball effectively, but

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Speaker 1: the passing offense looks to be just fine even without

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Speaker 1: Mohammed Sanu or Austin Hooper. It's really about their defense

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Speaker 1: that has suddenly come alive, both against the Saints and

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Speaker 1: then yesterday against the Panthers. Meanwhile, we know exactly what

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Speaker 1: the Bucks are at this point. Elite run defense, awful

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Speaker 1: pass defense, and Jameis Winston is going to throw a

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Speaker 1: few backbreaking interceptions or turn the ball over by a

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Speaker 1: fumble at the worst possible time. So how do you

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Speaker 1: feel here about the Falcons at home lank four and

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Speaker 1: a half with a total of fifty two and a half.

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Speaker 2: Who are these Atlanta Falcons?

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Speaker 1: I've been described. Everybody was screaming, you know, for the

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Speaker 1: coach to be fired, and suddenly, you know, Quinn just

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Speaker 1: got them turned around and playing well. I don't know

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Speaker 1: how it happened, but it happened.

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Speaker 2: And this is who Quinn is supposed to be, right,

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Speaker 2: He's a pete Carroll guy, part of that Seahawks defense

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Speaker 2: transitioned to Atlanta, and that was the strength when Dion

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Speaker 2: Jones first came into the league, Devondre Campbell, all these guys,

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Speaker 2: and they started off real slow, but now they're getting going.

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Speaker 2: You've got Claiborne and Jared up front really getting after it.

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Speaker 2: So I don't know, honestly what to make of this

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Speaker 2: Falcons team. You look at some of the sabermetrics or sabermetrics,

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Speaker 2: not baseball but like PFF and football outsiders, and I

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Speaker 2: don't know how much we can actually account the first

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Speaker 2: couple games of the year. I think they're muddying the

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Speaker 2: sample a little bit. So my knee jerk reaction is

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Speaker 2: that the Falcons are being overvalued off of two wins,

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Speaker 2: and that we should be looking to take the points

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Speaker 2: with the Bucks, maybe even dabble in the plus one

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Speaker 2: ninety on the money line. But I just I don't know.

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Speaker 2: Maybe sharper people than me will take advantage of this,

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Speaker 2: because when there's uncertainty in the market, that's when there's

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Speaker 2: value to be had. But the Falcons new trend of

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Speaker 2: being awesome just makes me very wary of this game

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Speaker 2: on all angles.

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Speaker 1: This strikes me as a game that's going to be

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Speaker 1: pretty split between sharp beetters and public. I think the

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Speaker 1: public are gonna back the Falcons because I think everybody

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Speaker 1: is a really short memory, and the Falcons are playing

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Speaker 1: great and the Bucks just keep throwing it away. So

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Speaker 1: I bet you though the shart better is because you

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Speaker 1: know the models are going to say that the Bucks

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Speaker 1: are much better than their record indicates. But I'll be honest,

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Speaker 1: I've lost enough money betting on Jameis Winston so far

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Speaker 1: this year and it's not something that I would feel

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Speaker 1: comfortable taking advantage of. If anything, i'd lean the Falcons.

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Speaker 1: But again, I'm just not able to process what exactly

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Speaker 1: has changed. And again they were beat up on defense.

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Speaker 1: It's not like they're that much healthier suddenly that their

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Speaker 1: defense is going to be playing at this elite level

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Speaker 1: that it's been at right now. But still, especially with Winston,

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Speaker 1: you know, at the very end of that game he

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Speaker 1: was against the Saints, he was limping a lot. Now,

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Speaker 1: Bruce arians said that the ankle injury is fine, so

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Speaker 1: hopefully it is. But in the end, look, it's just

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Speaker 1: it's not a game that I feel real comfortable backing

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Speaker 1: you know, the Bucks for sure, and the Falcons well,

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Speaker 1: I like it just it feels like a game where

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Speaker 1: the public's going to love them, and that's also not

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Speaker 1: something I want to know. So I could see this

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Speaker 1: being a Thursday game where we list one game where

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Speaker 1: we stay away that this one being the one that

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Speaker 1: I'll avoid at all costs.

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Speaker 2: The Bucks are the alternate line team. Man, I'm telling

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Speaker 2: you fire Falcons minus ten and a half alternate and

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Speaker 2: Fire Bucks money line. You'll probably win money in the

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Speaker 2: long run.

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Speaker 1: I like it all right. Let's move on to the

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Speaker 1: Dolphins at the Browns. Browns a whopping eleven point favorite

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Speaker 1: over under here at forty four and a half. I mean,

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Speaker 1: the Browns are looking a little better this day. These days.

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Speaker 1: I think Kareem Hunt actually really opened up the offense.

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Speaker 1: And more about the fact that when he plays with

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Speaker 1: Kareem Hunt, I think that might be their best I'm sorry,

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Speaker 1: whitn't he plays with Chubb? That might be their best setup.

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Speaker 1: The way they've got it going on, Their defense is

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Speaker 1: getting healthier in the secondary. They're obviously not going to

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Speaker 1: have Miles Garrett here, which hurts their pass rush. But

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins, who had won a couple of games are

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Speaker 1: kind of coming back down to earth. They get dominated

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Speaker 1: by the Bills. In this last game, Devontae Parker continues

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Speaker 1: to be really the only consistent part of their team

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Speaker 1: on either side of the ball. So how do you

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Speaker 1: feel here about the Browns at home? Off kind of

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Speaker 1: the mini by laying eleven over under forty four and

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Speaker 1: a half.

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Speaker 2: A couple extra days rest, and it's so funny. It's

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Speaker 2: almost like Freddie Kitchens waited nine weeks to roll out

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Speaker 2: this twenty one personnel with Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb

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Speaker 2: on the field at the same time, and it's really

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Speaker 2: unlocked something in this offense. It's allowed the offensive line

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Speaker 2: to have less time to block. Right, they've been struggling

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Speaker 2: upfront and things have not been working out downfield when

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Speaker 2: getting the ball to Obj. But when you can throw

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Speaker 2: shorter to either Hunt or Chubb, you can give that

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Speaker 2: offensive line a little bit of help there by letting

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Speaker 2: Baker give rid of the ball quickly. And honestly, Baker's

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Speaker 2: really a timing quarterback. He's not somebody that's gonna do

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Speaker 2: your like Bruce arians seven step drop and just chuck

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Speaker 2: the ball down the field. He's very much a timing thrower,

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Speaker 2: so everything's been in rhythm and looked great. And yeah,

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Speaker 2: the mini buy as well has really helped. The public

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Speaker 2: is still loving the Dolphins.

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Speaker 1: I mean, was just gonna say that that's crazy to me.

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Speaker 2: Obviously, they covered five straights, so they were putting money

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Speaker 2: in everybody's pockets. But yeah, thirty one percent of tickets

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Speaker 2: on the Browns forty percent of the money. So the

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Speaker 2: public is once again lining up to take the points

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Speaker 2: with the Dolphins, and I kind of think they're rights.

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Speaker 2: I mean, in order to cover ten and a half,

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Speaker 2: you have to be consistently getting out to a lead

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Speaker 2: and extending the lead over a large sample, and I

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Speaker 2: don't know if the Browns are built to do that,

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Speaker 2: so I think you have to take the points here.

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Speaker 1: Now, I completely agree that there is value in the Dolphins.

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Speaker 1: I mean anything when you get to double digits, it

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Speaker 1: just makes me just be like, oh man, I want

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Speaker 1: to take that, because you know, getting that many points

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Speaker 1: and I did it with the Bengals pretty much Assie's

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Speaker 1: and long. It hasn't always worked out, but you want

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Speaker 1: to take a look at that. And for the public

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Speaker 1: side of it, my guess is Frankly, again I say

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Speaker 1: this most weeks, but the overwhelming bets in the preseason

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Speaker 1: were on Mayfield to win MVP and the Browns to

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Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. So I think they the public

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Speaker 1: got so beat down by the Browns that they're just

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Speaker 1: running the other way. And again, the Dolphins have been

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Speaker 1: a team that covered this past week. But for the

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Speaker 1: most part, overall, it's not a game that I want

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Speaker 1: any part of. And there are a lot of games

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Speaker 1: like that on this slate, Frankly, but you know, with

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Speaker 1: the Browns laying eleven points, I see the value with

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins, but they're not at the point right now

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Speaker 1: given just I mean again, at some point, you know,

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Speaker 1: all the injuries are taking their told, even on a

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Speaker 1: team with a team like the Dolphins that doesn't have

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Speaker 1: that much talent. You know, once you lose Preston Williams

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Speaker 1: and even you know, Mark Walton, who wasn't anything great,

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Speaker 1: but you know he was at least Kalen Bilage is

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Speaker 1: probably the worst running back in football, you know, and

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Speaker 1: he's getting carries and on the defensive side when you

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Speaker 1: lost Staving Howard. So again, it's just not it's something

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Speaker 1: where I see the value in the Dolphins, But I

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Speaker 1: really don't think I could take it so long as

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Speaker 1: it sticks in double digits, which I'm sure it will.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Kaylin Bilage's player profile photo is next to the

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Speaker 2: word plod in the dictionary.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's really it's a remarkable level of utility.

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Speaker 2: Frankly and the Brown's defensive lineman. Obviously, everybody knows they're

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Speaker 2: not gonna be without Miles Garrett, but Ogunjobi missing this

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Speaker 2: game for pushing Rudolph after that melee is well, I mean,

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Speaker 2: they're gonna have zero pass rush in this game. So

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Speaker 2: really a tough spot for a Browns team that should be,

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Speaker 2: you know, coming off of a big division win the

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Speaker 2: mini bye, like you noted, this should be them entering

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Speaker 2: into like a late season bloom and unfortunately kind of

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Speaker 2: a rough spot for them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you bet against Fitsmagic at your own risk. Let's

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Speaker 1: move on here to the Giants at the Bears this game.

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Speaker 1: I'm just I don't know what the spread could be

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Speaker 1: on this game where I'd feel comfortable with it. But

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Speaker 1: the spread that it is currently at is Bear's laying

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Speaker 1: six and a half with an over under at forty

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Speaker 1: and a half. That's down at least a point from

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Speaker 1: what I checked on last night. We know we've got

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Speaker 1: the Mitch Trubisky injury that's kind of hanging up in

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Speaker 1: the air. He reportedly had the hit pointer last night.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of grumblings, but maybe that's not true.

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Speaker 1: Who knows. I honestly don't think it makes a difference

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Speaker 1: if you go to Chase Daniel or not. I'm not

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Speaker 1: sure it's a downgrade at this point. Trubisky has just

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Speaker 1: been playing so terribly. The Giants coming off the by

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Speaker 1: still does not sound like they're gonna have Evan Ingram here.

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Speaker 1: Maybe Sterling Shepherd he practiced today. Hopefully Sequon Parkley, you know,

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Speaker 1: got a little bit banged up in that Jets game.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully he's back good. How do you feel about the Bears?

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Speaker 1: Who I mean, betting on the Bears under basically has

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Speaker 1: been just a super solid strategy this whole year. I

289
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Speaker 1: think there's seven to three against it. How do you

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Speaker 1: feel about the Bears lank six and a half at

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Speaker 1: home to the Giants with an over under at forty

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Speaker 1: and a half. That's the correct reaction, just to be clear.

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Speaker 2: So a couple of weeks back, our Gridiron Gamble Super

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Speaker 2: Contest card. We had the Bears as short home favorites

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Speaker 2: against the Vikings, and not that we're the ones to

296
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Speaker 2: celebrate injuries, but we were quite happy to see Chase

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Speaker 2: Daniel get any quarterback sure when Mitch Trubisky was removed

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Speaker 2: from that game. I agree with you. I don't think

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Speaker 2: when this game opens, if Chase Daniel is the starting quarterback,

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Speaker 2: which all things are trending in that direction, I don't

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Speaker 2: think it moves off of this six and a half line.

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Speaker 2: That is in some places, certainly here in this betting

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Speaker 2: Pro's portal. I don't love either side at the number.

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Speaker 2: I do think the Bears are certainly a teaser candidate.

305
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Speaker 2: They though at six and a half. Get them down

306
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Speaker 2: to a half point, and I do like the over

307
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Speaker 2: in this game forty and a half. This Giants defense

308
00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:19,480
Speaker 2: stinks like it is horrific, and if we can get

309
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Speaker 2: Chase Daniel back there, I think that they can score

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Speaker 2: enough to get this pass that over the Bear. The

311
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Speaker 2: Giants are gonna be able to move the ball, and

312
00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:33,640
Speaker 2: Dimes is perfect in both aspects in that he can

313
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Speaker 2: move the ball and get the ball in the end zone,

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Speaker 2: or he can hand into the Bears defense, and they

315
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Speaker 2: can score as well. So I'm not in love with

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Speaker 2: the number. I do think the Bears are a teaser

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Speaker 2: candidate down to a half point, and I do like

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Speaker 2: the over on four and a half forty and a

319
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Speaker 2: half here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't like either of these numbers no matter

321
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Speaker 1: what you do. I mean, I agree with you that

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Speaker 1: I don't love the under on this one, because again, yeah,

323
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Speaker 1: the thing is, you know, even if the Bears just

324
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Speaker 1: run David Montgomery, you know, all day long, even though

325
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Speaker 1: you know they don't have a great offensive line, but

326
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Speaker 1: against the Giants, who don't really need that to be

327
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Speaker 1: able to move the ball, they should be able to

328
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Speaker 1: go up and down. They you know, the Giants pass

329
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Speaker 1: defense is terrible, Alan Robinson, I expect we'll have a

330
00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:13,800
Speaker 1: bounce back game after getting shut down by Jaylen Ramsey

331
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Speaker 1: and again on the other side of the ball. Look,

332
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Speaker 1: the Bears defense is just not anything close to what

333
00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:21,600
Speaker 1: it was. You can certainly run on them. Barkley's probably

334
00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:23,440
Speaker 1: gonna have a big day, and if Shepard comes back,

335
00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:26,920
Speaker 1: that's just going to give the Giants another weapon. So yeah,

336
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Speaker 1: I mean, I guess as much as I've been leaning

337
00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:30,560
Speaker 1: on the under the over does strike me as right

338
00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:32,200
Speaker 1: if I had to go one way or another, But

339
00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:34,360
Speaker 1: at six and a half, I'm just not going anywhere

340
00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:37,520
Speaker 1: near this game whatsoever. And I agree though I do

341
00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:39,840
Speaker 1: expect the Bears to win, so teasing it down sounds

342
00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:41,800
Speaker 1: like a good idea to me. Let's move on here

343
00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:44,200
Speaker 1: to the Seahawks at the Eagles. The Eagles here are

344
00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:46,400
Speaker 1: laying two and a half and the over unders at

345
00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:49,440
Speaker 1: forty eight. I'll be honest, I'm a little surprised by

346
00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:52,040
Speaker 1: this line. I thought it would be closer to a

347
00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:55,400
Speaker 1: pick them. I mean, the Eagles. They continue the battle. Yeah,

348
00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:57,560
Speaker 1: I know, I'm ready for it. The Eagles continue to

349
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Speaker 1: battle injuries. Okay, they lose this tough game to the Pack.

350
00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:02,760
Speaker 1: They easily could have won that game, you know, had

351
00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:05,280
Speaker 1: Nelson Agiler been able to hold onto a football, which,

352
00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:07,280
Speaker 1: by the way, is always one of the most confounding

353
00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:11,520
Speaker 1: things to me that these individuals. Agaler is a superior athlete.

354
00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:15,080
Speaker 1: His whole life has been dedicated to, you know, being

355
00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:17,320
Speaker 1: a wide receiver, and the fact that he has all

356
00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:20,560
Speaker 1: these drops always just strikes me as a little odd

357
00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:23,600
Speaker 1: to watch professional football players like that. But regardless, they

358
00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:25,600
Speaker 1: hang in this game, they easily could have won it

359
00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:28,000
Speaker 1: despite the fact that they had no Jordan Howard. They

360
00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:30,960
Speaker 1: had no Alshon Jeffery, so certainly not a terrible effort,

361
00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:34,680
Speaker 1: and their defense is fine. Meanwhile, the Seahawks, they just

362
00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:38,240
Speaker 1: they find a way to win every game. They're coming

363
00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:41,160
Speaker 1: off a bye. Tyler Lockett's injury doesn't look serious. I

364
00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:43,680
Speaker 1: don't think the Seahawks are a powerhouse team. I think

365
00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:46,280
Speaker 1: the Eagles are just a little overrated, and I think

366
00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:50,680
Speaker 1: betting against Russell Wilson is just not a profitable endeavor

367
00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:52,440
Speaker 1: at this point. So you sound like you have a

368
00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:53,720
Speaker 1: little bit of a different take. So how do you

369
00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:55,360
Speaker 1: feel on Eagles laying two and a half at home

370
00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:57,040
Speaker 1: with an over under and now at forty eight?

371
00:16:57,600 --> 00:17:01,920
Speaker 2: I think this line is fair. The my knee jerk

372
00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:05,919
Speaker 2: is just that the number playing the number in and

373
00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:09,040
Speaker 2: of itself, You're getting some value in not laying the

374
00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:13,000
Speaker 2: field goal with the Eagles here, But once you start

375
00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:15,840
Speaker 2: looking at the x's and o's and who's lining up,

376
00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:20,800
Speaker 2: I'm very afraid of this Eagles offense and their inability

377
00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:23,879
Speaker 2: to move the ball. They predominantly want to sit in

378
00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:28,320
Speaker 2: twelve with both Zach Ertz and Dallas Godert on the field.

379
00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:31,639
Speaker 2: But there's probably no worse team to want to play

380
00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:35,399
Speaker 2: twelve against than the Seahawks because they're coverage abilities at

381
00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:38,679
Speaker 2: linebacker with Wagner and kJ Wright are just off the charts,

382
00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:41,399
Speaker 2: plus they're coming off the buy. I think this is just,

383
00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:44,320
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, a very very fair

384
00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:46,960
Speaker 2: number and unless it moves then ey of the direction,

385
00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:49,320
Speaker 2: I think it's a stay away for me. I am

386
00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:52,399
Speaker 2: very intrigued though, at how much the public is just

387
00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:56,479
Speaker 2: dumping on the Eagles. They're taking the Hawks at an

388
00:17:56,520 --> 00:18:00,720
Speaker 2: eighty three percent clip ninety percent of them money, so.

389
00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,240
Speaker 1: That's what that's what's dropping the spread here, right, I

390
00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:06,120
Speaker 1: mean the look ahead was three, it's actually two now

391
00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:08,159
Speaker 1: at the consensus thoughts. I looked at it before we

392
00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:10,080
Speaker 1: started recording and I had it at two and a half.

393
00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:12,920
Speaker 1: So it is just dropping very quickly, and that's I

394
00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:16,600
Speaker 1: completely agree. I mean, I hate being so aligned with

395
00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:18,639
Speaker 1: the public at this point, you know, but this is

396
00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:21,000
Speaker 1: not something where you know eighty three percent of the

397
00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:23,040
Speaker 1: money is coming in on the Seahawks and you know

398
00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:25,239
Speaker 1: fifty percent of the money is coming in, right, I mean,

399
00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:28,160
Speaker 1: the bet the amount of money coming in is aligned

400
00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:30,320
Speaker 1: with the number of bets that are coming in. So

401
00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:33,240
Speaker 1: I don't know, man, this strikes me as a mistake here.

402
00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:35,960
Speaker 1: I think the Eagles are fine, but what you know,

403
00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:39,320
Speaker 1: the Seahawks they do this every single game. You know,

404
00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:41,760
Speaker 1: they just managed to hang in there long enough for

405
00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:44,399
Speaker 1: Wilson to do his thing. And if they're getting points,

406
00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:46,040
Speaker 1: not that it really matters if it was a pick them.

407
00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:47,560
Speaker 1: If they're going to get one, if they're going to

408
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:49,800
Speaker 1: get two, not that big a deal. But for me,

409
00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:52,040
Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I think they messed. I think

410
00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:54,600
Speaker 1: the Eagles are being overvalued a little bit by the bookmakers.

411
00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:57,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I still have some great grave concerns about this.

412
00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:02,879
Speaker 2: See this Eagle secondary. I think yesterday or Sunday, sorry

413
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:04,520
Speaker 2: for those of you that listen to that are listening

414
00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:04,880
Speaker 2: to this.

415
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:06,480
Speaker 1: Later in the week.

416
00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:09,720
Speaker 2: I think that poor offensive performance was more indicative of

417
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:13,040
Speaker 2: the Patriots' inability to move the ball as opposed to

418
00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:15,320
Speaker 2: the Eagles really clamping down on d I do not

419
00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:17,639
Speaker 2: love that secondary. So yeah, again, I think this is

420
00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:21,400
Speaker 2: a fair line. And yeah, holding a ticket while number

421
00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:23,399
Speaker 2: three is running around out there like a chicken with

422
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,199
Speaker 2: his head cut off. Puts the fear of God in me.

423
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:27,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I will almost certainly be taking the Seahawks

424
00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:30,600
Speaker 1: in the Super Contest as long as they remain getting points.

425
00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:31,879
Speaker 1: So I'll just put that out there and they may

426
00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:34,280
Speaker 1: be one of my best bets on Thursday after I

427
00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:36,200
Speaker 1: get a good look at the entire card. Now, before

428
00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:39,160
Speaker 1: we move on, let's talk briefly about bet MGM. If

429
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:42,160
Speaker 1: you have ever seen that Seinfeld episode where Kramer wants

430
00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:44,879
Speaker 1: to essentially live his entire life in his shower, I

431
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464
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,760
Speaker 1: move on here to the Panthers at the Saints. Saints

465
00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 1: here are laying nine and a half and it's moving up,

466
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,520
Speaker 1: and the over under is at forty seven. At the moment.

467
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,560
Speaker 1: Panthers starting to get a little bit exposed here on

468
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:31,119
Speaker 1: both sides of the ball. Kyle Allen throws four picks

469
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:35,159
Speaker 1: against that suddenly incredible Falcons defense that we've been talking about,

470
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:38,160
Speaker 1: and their passing defense, which is usually strong, it's struggling

471
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,320
Speaker 1: a little bit, but they're pretty desperate at this point.

472
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:42,520
Speaker 1: They really need to win. Meanwhile, the Saints write the

473
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 1: ship against the Bucks. Now they're coming home, they'll probably

474
00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:48,119
Speaker 1: still be down Marshawn Lattimore here. It sounds like his

475
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 1: injury is going to keep him out at least another week.

476
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,560
Speaker 1: But you know, the offense continues to hum. Their run

477
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 1: defense it's great and you'll need it against McCaffrey. So

478
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 1: how do you feel here? Saints at home laning nine

479
00:21:57,520 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 1: and a half points and the over under at forty seven.

480
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 2: Feels like an auto bed on Carolina. To me, it's

481
00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 2: two converging ideas. One what team looked the best last

482
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:10,640
Speaker 2: week in professional football? What team looked the worst last

483
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 2: week in professional football. They're coming together here this look

484
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:15,919
Speaker 2: ahead with six and a half, we're moving it a

485
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:19,639
Speaker 2: full field goal because Kyle Allen had his first really

486
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 2: horrific professional game. There's just too much value in the

487
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:29,440
Speaker 2: number here, especially if Latimore is out. He's a problem

488
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:33,439
Speaker 2: missing in that secondary, So way too many points. I

489
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 2: think you just have to close your eyes, pinch your nose,

490
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:37,919
Speaker 2: and take the Carolina Panthers.

491
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:38,960
Speaker 1: And let me ask you something. Can you see it

492
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:42,440
Speaker 1: getting past ten? And I kind of can? I kind

493
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:44,399
Speaker 1: of can, man, I'm telling you, I think the public

494
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:47,879
Speaker 1: is going to pound the Saints here. I know it

495
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 1: hasn't come in yet, but I could see them really

496
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 1: pounding it. I could see it getting higher. I think

497
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:53,719
Speaker 1: if you like the Panthers, you don't need to move

498
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:55,800
Speaker 1: right now. I don't really see it coming back down

499
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:58,120
Speaker 1: below the nine and a half. I mean maybe nine.

500
00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:01,639
Speaker 1: I guess I could see, you know, if everything breaks away,

501
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 1: But to me, I think nine and a half is

502
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 1: kind of your floor here, and I could see it

503
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:06,879
Speaker 1: getting past the key number of ten. I know that's crazy,

504
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 1: but I think that when this starts coming in, I

505
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 1: think the public is going to be looking at the slate.

506
00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:12,600
Speaker 1: They're not going to love what they see. The Saints

507
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 1: are public team, they're going to like them, and I

508
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:15,679
Speaker 1: think they hate it's going to go far. So if

509
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 1: you like the Panthers, I'm not sure you need to

510
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 1: jump on it right now. I don't think you're going

511
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:19,919
Speaker 1: to lose any value going forward.

512
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:24,159
Speaker 2: Interesting ten's a lot. I think the amount of liability

513
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:26,439
Speaker 2: they might receive if they move to ten would be

514
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:31,159
Speaker 2: so heavy that they're more comfortable taking all this money

515
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:33,399
Speaker 2: at minus nine and a half or minus eight and

516
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,880
Speaker 2: a half wherever it is on here and just kind

517
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 2: of needing the Panthers as opposed to pushing it to

518
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 2: ten and maybe balancing a little bit more. I think

519
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,399
Speaker 2: the books are okay having an opinion here and wanting

520
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:48,960
Speaker 2: Carolina plus the nine and a half.

521
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:50,720
Speaker 1: All right, well, let's go to the game that you're

522
00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:55,160
Speaker 1: going to be at. Raiders. Go that Raiders laying three

523
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 1: over under forty five and a half. This's dropped significantly

524
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,400
Speaker 1: over here. Initially, I really want to hear your thoughts

525
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 1: on this, because initially it felt like a little bit

526
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 1: of a surprising line to me. I mean, the Raiders

527
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 1: did not dominate the Bengals or anything. But we've seen

528
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 1: enough of them to know that they're a pretty quality

529
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 1: team sort of on both sides of the ball at

530
00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 1: this point. And when you look at though, when I

531
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:18,959
Speaker 1: looked at it a little closer, you look at how

532
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 1: the two teams match up, considering that the Jets are

533
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 1: at home and it's a West Coast team traveling east

534
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 1: never really a great thing for the Raiders, and their

535
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:27,919
Speaker 1: history kind of makes sense. I mean, it's not like

536
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 1: the Raiders have these dominant wide receivers the type that

537
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 1: can give the Jets trouble because they have nothing in

538
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 1: their cornerbacks. They can stop the run, but they struggle

539
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 1: to stop the past. They don't get all that much

540
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:40,680
Speaker 1: pressure on the quarterback, which kind of is the only

541
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 1: thing keeping Sam Darnold upright. So the Jets are coming

542
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 1: off two straight wins here, as we talked about, So

543
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 1: how do you feel here about the Raiders laying three

544
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:49,880
Speaker 1: with an over under forty five and a half?

545
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 2: Feels a little disrespectful not gonna lie three? Look at

546
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:57,119
Speaker 2: why does this move up a half points? Raiders fail

547
00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:01,359
Speaker 2: to cover against a really, really bad Bengals team. They

548
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:04,119
Speaker 2: had a chance there deep in the red zone, but

549
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:08,560
Speaker 2: got a I believe Richie with Richie Incognito, jumped off

550
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 2: sides there and it ended up kicking a field goal

551
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,760
Speaker 2: in a spot where they could have scored a touchdown

552
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:17,880
Speaker 2: to cover. No way that I was laying points there,

553
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:21,440
Speaker 2: and I'm salty at all of that penalty, none whatsoever,

554
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:25,159
Speaker 2: But yet moves a half point in the Raiders direction.

555
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:27,679
Speaker 2: The numbers here are telling me that the sharps are

556
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:29,919
Speaker 2: coming in on the Jets right now. Fifty three percent

557
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:32,360
Speaker 2: of the tickets are on them, but eighty two percent

558
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 2: of the money.

559
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 1: I gotta lean.

560
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:39,680
Speaker 2: Jets here, But I'm definitely afraid of this secondary. As

561
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 2: porous as the Raiders offensive weapons may be, I'm not

562
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:47,160
Speaker 2: worried about hunter Renfro taking the top off. I am

563
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 2: still concerned with the cornerbacks on the field for the

564
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 2: Jets and the linebackers as well, because we're gonna have

565
00:25:56,240 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 2: to be dealing with Darren Waller on some of these

566
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:02,440
Speaker 2: routes as well. But you did bring up a very

567
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:06,199
Speaker 2: important point, and that's the biggest weakness for the Jets

568
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 2: is their offensive line. And if you can't generate a

569
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 2: pass for us, then you can't take advantage of this

570
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 2: large weakness and Sam can just stand back there and

571
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:18,919
Speaker 2: throw some darts. He looked amazing against Washington because they

572
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 2: were able to keep him up right, So I think

573
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 2: three and a half is just a bit too heavy.

574
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 2: At three, I think the line is a little more fair.

575
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 2: But we're getting a ton of value just in that

576
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 2: hook right there.

577
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, right now, it's if you look at the

578
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 1: various sportsbooks, it's bouncing between three and three and a half.

579
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 1: So for us, the consensus line actually is at three.

580
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:37,120
Speaker 1: So I think it's fine there, but I agree there

581
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 1: are some books that are laying three and a half. Yeah,

582
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:43,639
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know. I know, I kind of

583
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 1: like the over, I will say, especially now that it's

584
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 1: dropped at forty five and a half, because I think

585
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 1: both these teams are going to be able to put

586
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 1: up points. But again, you know, it's just it's a

587
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:56,160
Speaker 1: matchup where, you know, the offense really runs through Josh

588
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:57,919
Speaker 1: Jacobs at this point, and the one thing that the

589
00:26:57,960 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 1: Jets can do is stop the run. And it's not

590
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:02,119
Speaker 1: like Jake is really much of a pass threat. He's

591
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:04,359
Speaker 1: catching more passes now, but he's not one of these backs,

592
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 1: it's going to sneak out and really dominate you through

593
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:09,119
Speaker 1: the air, like you know, Christian McCaffrey or Alvin Kamara,

594
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 1: anything close to that. And the wide receivers Tyrell Williams

595
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 1: is fine, but he's battling Planter Fasciatis Hunter Renfroze. Okay,

596
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 1: Waller is definitely good. But yeah, it just doesn't seem

597
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 1: like the best matchup for the type of offense that

598
00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:23,119
Speaker 1: the Raiders have. And I agree that this is the

599
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 1: type of game where the Jets are going to be

600
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 1: able to put up points. So for me, I kind

601
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:28,639
Speaker 1: of like the total here now that it's dropped a

602
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 1: few points to forty five and a half. I don't

603
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 1: have real strong feelings about the spread right now at

604
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 1: three or three and a half. I certainly did not

605
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:38,639
Speaker 1: feel like it was disrespectful. I feel like, you know,

606
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:40,720
Speaker 1: I think I maybe have a higher opinion of the

607
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:44,119
Speaker 1: Raiders than you do. But for me, love the Raiders.

608
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,240
Speaker 2: I was telling people. I was telling people, take a

609
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:48,400
Speaker 2: taste on Raiders plus four hundred to win the West.

610
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 1: Oh, all right, I like it. Well, anyway, it should

611
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 1: be an interesting I'm sure the line's going to stay

612
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:55,720
Speaker 1: roughly at three or three and a half, but again,

613
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 1: the total of forty five and a half, I'm kind

614
00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 1: of feeling like that is a bet that I'll want

615
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:03,000
Speaker 1: to be making this week because I do feel like

616
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 1: both teams are going to be able to put up points.

617
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,119
Speaker 1: Let's move on here to the Broncos at the Bills.

618
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 1: Bills here laying four and a half and the over

619
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:11,199
Speaker 1: under at thirty seven and a half. I think I

620
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 1: saw it yesterday and it was thirty five and a half,

621
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:16,400
Speaker 1: which is insane. So the fact that it's at least

622
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,920
Speaker 1: just now a really low number instead of a crazy

623
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 1: low number makes me feel a little better. The Broncos here,

624
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 1: they blow the twenty point halftime lead to the Vikings,

625
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:27,360
Speaker 1: but they continue to show that they're not this pushover

626
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 1: even with Brandon Allen at quarterback. A few things break

627
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:32,640
Speaker 1: differently for them, you know, even with Joe Flacco, they

628
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 1: really could have been in the mix out there in

629
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 1: the West. The defense remained strong after they didn't trade

630
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 1: really any of their big pieces. Meanwhile, the Bills continue

631
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 1: to play well. But this is kind of going to

632
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 1: be the first real test for Josh Allen, you know,

633
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 1: other than when he played against the Patriots where he

634
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 1: didn't have a great game, so I'm really going to

635
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 1: be interested to see how he's able to do. Defense

636
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 1: is solid, They're still a bit vulnerable against the run,

637
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 1: which could make for a good day for Philip Lindsay.

638
00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 1: And again the over under and now, when I first

639
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 1: saw it, I was like thirty five and a half.

640
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 1: Goodness gracious at thirty seven and a half, still really low.

641
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 1: But how do you feel about the Bills? Lank four

642
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 1: and a half at home with the total at thirty

643
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 1: seven and a half.

644
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 2: Broncos another team that started off very slow defensively, but

645
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 2: have come on as of late. And it's very weird

646
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 2: that it all happened after the Bradley Chubb injury. There

647
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:20,200
Speaker 2: were rumblings that Vic Fangio's defense is extremely complex and

648
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 2: it took a little bit for them to understand some

649
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 2: of the concepts, and they've really really rounded into form

650
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 2: and looked pretty great these last couple of weeks. And

651
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 2: anytime Josh Allen goes up against the defense with a

652
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 2: pulse that definitely puts some fear into me. I liked

653
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 2: this more at the opener at five and a half. Unsurprisingly,

654
00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:42,479
Speaker 2: it's starting to come down, and if you look at

655
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 2: these numbers, man, it seems like the sharps are really

656
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 2: pounding the Broncos here because fifty seven percent of the

657
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 2: tickets are on the bills, but eighty five percent of

658
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 2: the money is on the Broncos. So hopefully out there

659
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 2: you were able to grab a five and a half

660
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 2: ticket as it comes down, I'm less intrigued about Denver.

661
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 2: Brandon Allen on the road is just the scariest Josh

662
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 2: Allen against a good defense. But yeah, I still think

663
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 2: there might be a little bit of value on a

664
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 2: really well coached Broncos team.

665
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I actually agree with you there. I

666
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 1: do think that, you know, even at four and a half,

667
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 1: I think the value is still with the Broncos. My

668
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 1: only concern again is, you know, as I mentioned a

669
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 1: couple of times here, I went to school in Buffalo.

670
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 1: That place is a really really difficult place to play

671
00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 1: once it starts getting a little cold and a little

672
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:34,960
Speaker 1: windy like it is now. So it's something where I

673
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 1: get a little worried about it. But I think the

674
00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 1: Broncos are just a much better football team than people

675
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 1: give them credit for. Even with Allen back there I mean, look,

676
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 1: he's still able to move the ball. Courtland Sutton is

677
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 1: a real real receiver out there. You know, he can

678
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 1: really do some great things if you just let him

679
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 1: do his thing and throw it up to him. And again,

680
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna just pound. You know, the one

681
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:58,240
Speaker 1: vulnerability of this Bill's defense is against the run, and

682
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:00,080
Speaker 1: I think you're just gonna see a whole lot of

683
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 1: Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman put in there, and I

684
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 1: think they're going to try to control the ball there.

685
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 1: So you know, if I had to go with the

686
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 1: over under, by the way, I still would I think,

687
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 1: probably go with the under at thirty seven and a

688
00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 1: half because I could see both teams just trying to

689
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 1: run the ball NonStop, which leads to the clock running

690
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 1: and not that much scoring. But I agree, for right now,

691
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 1: I would have liked it better at five and a half.

692
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 1: I still think that there's value in the Broncos at

693
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 1: four and a half. I'm not saying that I'm going

694
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 1: to jump all over it, but if I'm looking for value,

695
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 1: I think that's probably one of the spots.

696
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 2: Sudden they really open up the playbook for too two

697
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 2: wide receiver reverses an inside run. I mean, he's just

698
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 2: a fantastic player. So he's he's one of those guys,

699
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 2: and I know you do a lot of fancy stuff

700
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 2: as well, where he's getting into the territory where don't

701
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 2: care who he's up against, don't care what the cornerback

702
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 2: receiver matchup is, Courtland Sutton is going to get his.

703
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, Sunday, he makes some acrobatic catches and you know, look,

704
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 1: as long as you have the trust to throw it

705
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 1: up to him and see what he can do, then

706
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 1: you're liable to come down with good things. And they've

707
00:31:57,480 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 1: been doing that lately, even with Allen in there. So

708
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,120
Speaker 1: I do think this is something where you know, probably

709
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 1: value on the Broncos. Again, don't love it, especially not

710
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 1: at four and a half, but it's something where I'm

711
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 1: certainly more than willing to roll with them if in

712
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:12,000
Speaker 1: the end, like for the Super Contest, where we're desperate

713
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 1: to find values somewhere, that might be one where I

714
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 1: might dabble in for the Lions at the Redskins. Lions

715
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 1: here are laying three and a half in the over

716
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 1: under at forty two and a half, I think it's

717
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 1: fair to assume that it's probably still Jeff driscoll here

718
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 1: for the Lions, but he is able to move the

719
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 1: ball pretty well against the Cowboys, to be fair. Meanwhile,

720
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 1: perhaps the team has found their first running back since

721
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 1: Carrie On Johnson went out with Bo Scarborough. Of all people,

722
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 1: he carried in this game last week. It was a

723
00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:42,520
Speaker 1: revenge game, absolutely for the team that drafted him. He

724
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 1: ran pretty well. I mean, he's not going to do

725
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 1: anything in the passing game. You're still going to see JD. McKissick,

726
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 1: you'll see a little bit of Ti Johnson. But really

727
00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 1: he at least gave them this presence on the ground

728
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 1: that they haven't really had in a while. So it

729
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 1: certainly helped the offense. The problem is the defense. They

730
00:32:56,640 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 1: remained significantly subpar on defense probably isn't going to matter

731
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 1: against a Dwayne Haskins led RESK Redskins team. If they

732
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 1: put up a few points I think seventeen yesterday against

733
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 1: the Jets, but almost all of that was in garbage time. Haskins,

734
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 1: it's just really not ready to be an NFL Q

735
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 1: be especially when you're coming out after a bye. You

736
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 1: kind of said, okay, he might be able to show

737
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 1: us something and he really just doesn't. Although you probably

738
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 1: looked a little better than I expected. They get Darius

739
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:25,920
Speaker 1: guys involved a little bit here. Terry McLaurin still is

740
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 1: around and he's a solid wide receiver. So how do

741
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 1: you feel here about the lines length three and a

742
00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 1: half with the over underd forty two and a half?

743
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 1: And I assume you, like me, think it's going to

744
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 1: be Driskell and not Matthew Stafford under center.

745
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely going to be Driskell Stafford just we get it.

746
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 2: You're you're an absolute warrior. But I don't think playing

747
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 2: with a broken hip or broken back, whatever it is,

748
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 2: is worth it it this part of the season, Lions

749
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:52,000
Speaker 2: are three to five and one. It's been a long

750
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:55,000
Speaker 2: year for the Stafford family. Just to go, just go

751
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 2: take a rest unless you're driving. Put a hand in

752
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:00,160
Speaker 2: the air if you had both Scarborough and you're dimes

753
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 2: the team when the Cowboys drafted him, because I did

754
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 2: hoping that he would somehow crack some attempts behind that

755
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:11,320
Speaker 2: offensive line with a Zeke injury, but unfortunately not man.

756
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:13,560
Speaker 2: It is the year twenty nineteen of our Lord in

757
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 2: Jeff Driscoll's a road favorite in professional football. I don't

758
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 2: know if I can get down with that. Ninety six

759
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 2: percent of the tickets are on the Lions, ninety nine

760
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:30,640
Speaker 2: percent of the money is on Detroit. No, thank you next, Okay,

761
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 2: I think that that's fair, Matt. It's really not a

762
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:36,920
Speaker 2: game that I particularly love. I certainly will never be

763
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 2: backing the Redskins with Dwayne Askins back there, but certainly

764
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 2: something where I'm not overly excited about the Lions despite

765
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 2: the love that they are getting from the public. I

766
00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 2: think that's also fair to say Driscoll was kind of

767
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:53,320
Speaker 2: impressive this past week, but I agree it's very strange

768
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 2: to look at a Jeff Driscoll led team and see

769
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 2: them favored by three and a half points. So let's

770
00:34:58,040 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 2: move on here.

771
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 1: But before we finish up with our last few games,

772
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,799
Speaker 1: I do want to remind everyone about our giveaway. It's

773
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:06,280
Speaker 1: as signed Odell Beckham Junior Cleveland Brown's Helmet. Our contest

774
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775
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776
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Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com slash contest for more details, but to enter,

777
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 1: all you need to do is leave a review for

778
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:19,799
Speaker 1: the show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send a

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Speaker 1: screenshot of that review to contest at Bettingpros dot com. Now,

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783
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786
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789
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790
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 1: let's move on here to the Steelers at the Bengals.

791
00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:58,960
Speaker 1: Steelers here are laying seven with an over under at

792
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 1: thirty nine and a half. This is just a very

793
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:03,800
Speaker 1: tough one to analyze because we don't really know who's

794
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 1: gonna be out there for the Steelers on offense. I

795
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:08,279
Speaker 1: think we can assume that James Connor is probably going

796
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 1: to be out after reaggravated his shoulder injury. That's gonna

797
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 1: leave Jayalen Samuels and Trey Edmonds in the backfield. Meanwhile,

798
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:16,920
Speaker 1: Juju smith Schuster not only leaves with the concussion, but

799
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 1: he's also apparently battling a knee injury, making it a

800
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 1: little more unlikely. They signed a few wide receivers off

801
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:26,040
Speaker 1: the street today, so I'd have to bet that smith

802
00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 1: Schuster doesn't play Deontae Johnson. I mean, given how scary

803
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:31,319
Speaker 1: that concussion look, do, you probably have to assume he's

804
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:34,080
Speaker 1: not gonna play. So it's really just about their defense,

805
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 1: which does remain strong, which is a problem so long

806
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:39,839
Speaker 1: as Ryan Finley remains the quarterback for the Bengals, because

807
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 1: he's really not getting it done. I mean, they did

808
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:44,840
Speaker 1: hang in there against the Raiders, but there's just no

809
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 1: firepower for that team on either side of the ball.

810
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:49,320
Speaker 1: So tough to analyze given the injuries. But how do

811
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:51,400
Speaker 1: you feel right now? But the Steelers laying seven and

812
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:53,360
Speaker 1: the over under at thirty nine and a half.

813
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, if we know there's no Palancy and if there's

814
00:36:56,600 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 2: a possibility that there's no Connor and no Juju, I

815
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:04,520
Speaker 2: think we have to take the points with the Bengals.

816
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 2: As disgusting as it feels this Steelers offense is already

817
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:15,280
Speaker 2: putrid with Juju who is an elite receiver, and Connor

818
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 2: who's above average runner, and Pouncy being one of the

819
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 2: best centers in the game. You take all three of

820
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 2: those away, you've got Mason Rudolph throwing to a bunch

821
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 2: of randoms, his college teammate James Washington being one of them.

822
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,560
Speaker 2: The Deontay Johnson was bleeding out of his ears, like,

823
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 2: what is the Steelers offense going to look like? And

824
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 2: I despise the Bengals specifically on the defensive side of

825
00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 2: the ball, But I just I don't know how this

826
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 2: doesn't move off of the seven look ahead with all

827
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:53,920
Speaker 2: these these injuries here, the total is suspiciously low as well,

828
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:57,480
Speaker 2: But given how poor both of these offenses are, I

829
00:37:57,520 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 2: think that's kind of a stay away as well. But

830
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:02,120
Speaker 2: if these injuries trend in that direction, if the Steelers

831
00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 2: are going to be without some of those key players,

832
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:06,160
Speaker 2: I think we have to take the points with the Bengals.

833
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:07,919
Speaker 2: As icky as it feels.

834
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:10,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean really, and when you look at it,

835
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:12,239
Speaker 1: I mean still at this point, the majority of the

836
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:15,279
Speaker 1: money is on the Steelers, but the majority of the

837
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:17,279
Speaker 1: bets actually is on the Steelers, but the majority the

838
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:19,239
Speaker 1: money is on the Bengals because I think, you know,

839
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:22,360
Speaker 1: most sharp bedders are probably realizing it's just not going

840
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 1: to be many people out there. You know. This could

841
00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 1: be another game where Jaylen Samuels catches thirteen passes, you know,

842
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:30,719
Speaker 1: because I don't really know how else they're going to

843
00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 1: be able to move the ball. They are signing guys

844
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:35,880
Speaker 1: off the streets. So I agree, I have I have lost.

845
00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 1: I have lost with the Bengals this year, trying to

846
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:41,279
Speaker 1: sort of, you know, bank on the value. But at

847
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:44,399
Speaker 1: this point, if it stays at seven, I agree, Yeah,

848
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 1: I think you got to take that touchdown because again

849
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:48,719
Speaker 1: I don't see any way Connor plays. It seems highly

850
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:52,160
Speaker 1: unlikely that Smith Schuster plays, and probably not Deante Johnson,

851
00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 1: and again no Penalcy. It's just really hard to see

852
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 1: them putting up points at all at this point. So yeah,

853
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I think I take the value

854
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:03,759
Speaker 1: with the Bengals and hold my nose and probably do it.

855
00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:05,880
Speaker 1: Let's move on here to the Jaguars at the Titans.

856
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:08,799
Speaker 1: Titans here laying three at home, the over under at

857
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:12,120
Speaker 1: forty one to me, This is the exact correct spread

858
00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 1: and the exact correct total. The Titans are coming off

859
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:17,200
Speaker 1: of bye. They continue to look a little better offensively

860
00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 1: with Ryan Tannehill. The Jaguars get beat up a bit

861
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 1: by the Colts and Nick Foles return, but they're certainly

862
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:24,040
Speaker 1: capable of winning this type of game, as they did

863
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:26,080
Speaker 1: earlier this year. So how do you feel about the

864
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:27,960
Speaker 1: Titans laying three at home with an over under of

865
00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:28,480
Speaker 1: forty one.

866
00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:30,880
Speaker 2: I think there's some value in the Titans here. I

867
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 2: think this line should be three and a half. I

868
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:34,760
Speaker 2: think they should be getting the hook. And by looking

869
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:37,799
Speaker 2: at the betting pros portal right here, that minus three

870
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 2: is at minus one twenty juice, which is telling me

871
00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 2: that the money is coming in on Tennessee. It's kind

872
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 2: of weird. I think Nick Foles is a better quarterback

873
00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:50,360
Speaker 2: than Gardner Minshew, but given the structure of this Jags offense,

874
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:54,640
Speaker 2: their inability to pass block, and their need for kind

875
00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 2: of playmaking at the quarterback position, I think Minshew's a

876
00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:01,680
Speaker 2: better fit for the team. As ass backwards as that

877
00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:05,400
Speaker 2: may sound, A lot of the struggles last week for

878
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:08,879
Speaker 2: the Jags was just Nick Foles's inability to make a play.

879
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 2: And that's okay when you're on the Eagles, right when

880
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 2: you have an offensive structure around you where your guys

881
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:16,040
Speaker 2: are gonna win, your offensive line's gonna win, and when

882
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:19,720
Speaker 2: your guys get the ball, they're going to make winning plays.

883
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:22,320
Speaker 2: But the Jags are kind of a team that needed

884
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:26,319
Speaker 2: that boost from Minshew. They needed his mobility and his

885
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:28,120
Speaker 2: ability to get out of the pocket and kind of

886
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:30,839
Speaker 2: create throwing lanes. And I just don't think they're gonna

887
00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:33,280
Speaker 2: get that out of Foles. Plus, you've got the Titans

888
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 2: coming off the by Ryan Tannills just doesn't really make

889
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:40,880
Speaker 2: that many mistakes at quarterback. We might be getting aj

890
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:43,759
Speaker 2: Brown back healthy. Yeah, I think the Titan should be

891
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:45,120
Speaker 2: getting the hook here. I think there's some value in

892
00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:45,640
Speaker 2: the monastery.

893
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:49,319
Speaker 1: Well, from what I'm looking at, ninety five percent of

894
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 1: the money is coming in on the Titans right now,

895
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 1: so certainly Better's look to agree with you. And look,

896
00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:59,560
Speaker 1: Tannehill has completely changed that offense, I think. I mean,

897
00:40:59,840 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 1: you know, you figured maybe it wouldn't be that much

898
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:05,279
Speaker 1: of an upgrade over Mariotta, but it really is. I mean,

899
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 1: they're moving the ball through the air. Well, you always

900
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 1: have Derrick Henry pounding the rock, the defense remains strong. Yeah,

901
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:13,799
Speaker 1: I mean I get it, and off the buy, I

902
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:15,960
Speaker 1: do get it. But you know, I think the Jaguars

903
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:18,240
Speaker 1: are just one of these teams that I can't really

904
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:19,920
Speaker 1: get a read on. I feel like every time I

905
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 1: expect them to come out a little flat, they come

906
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 1: out looking better than I expect. Every time I think

907
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:25,960
Speaker 1: that they're going to put up a big game, I

908
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:28,640
Speaker 1: feel like they come out flat. So for me, you know,

909
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 1: at three, I feel like this is where it's supposed

910
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:33,359
Speaker 1: to be. You kind of feel like, essentially at three,

911
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:35,840
Speaker 1: you're getting you're certainly getting value on the Titan. So

912
00:41:36,360 --> 00:41:38,880
Speaker 1: that's one that you know, I could see. It's certainly

913
00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:41,120
Speaker 1: the vast majority of betters are in agreement with you.

914
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:44,400
Speaker 1: But for me, this line feels about right. But it

915
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:46,440
Speaker 1: sounds like, given the amount of money that's coming in,

916
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 1: if you do like the Titans, you should probably get

917
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 1: in on it while it's at three.

918
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:53,400
Speaker 2: Because that hook, that hook's coming, it's coming.

919
00:41:53,200 --> 00:41:55,680
Speaker 1: It's certainly coming. Let's move on to a game that

920
00:41:56,480 --> 00:41:58,880
Speaker 1: might be the most bet game in the history of

921
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:02,759
Speaker 1: professional football, the Cowboys at the Patriots. Patriots here are

922
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:05,799
Speaker 1: laying six and a half with the over under of

923
00:42:06,080 --> 00:42:09,160
Speaker 1: forty six. It's going to be really interesting to see

924
00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:12,719
Speaker 1: how these bets break down. Considering again, you've got two

925
00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 1: of the most public teams in the game, The Patriots.

926
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:17,320
Speaker 1: We talked about that game a little bit earlier against

927
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 1: the Eels. They win, but they really don't look that impressive. Again,

928
00:42:20,680 --> 00:42:23,360
Speaker 1: the weather wasn't great, let's at least you know, acknowledge that.

929
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:28,400
Speaker 1: But the Pats haven't really looked that good offensively in

930
00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:30,760
Speaker 1: a while. They've kind of been relying on their defense,

931
00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:34,120
Speaker 1: which is great, but it's not quite as dominant as

932
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:36,040
Speaker 1: maybe it looked early in the season when they had

933
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 1: that cupcake schedule. The Cowboys defense hasn't been tremendous either,

934
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:42,759
Speaker 1: but the offense is doing enough. Against the Lions, They're

935
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:45,200
Speaker 1: not running the ball that effectively these days, which is

936
00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 1: a little weird. Zeke has scored the touchdowns but really

937
00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:50,520
Speaker 1: not gaining that many yards of the last couple of games.

938
00:42:50,560 --> 00:42:52,839
Speaker 1: But they obviously have a lot of weapons. Even with

939
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:56,000
Speaker 1: Amari Cooper battling the knee injury, they're getting around Cobb

940
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:58,799
Speaker 1: involved more, Michael Gallup as an emerging star. So this

941
00:42:58,840 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 1: should be a good one. Feel about the Patriots at

942
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 1: home link six and a half with the total at

943
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 1: forty six.

944
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:06,000
Speaker 2: I think under forty six is my favorite bed of

945
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 2: the week so far. You look at what the Patriots

946
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:12,760
Speaker 2: do on defense, and they funnel you to run the ball,

947
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:15,759
Speaker 2: one because they're awesome in coverage, and two because a

948
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:17,360
Speaker 2: lot of the looks they give you in the front

949
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:20,000
Speaker 2: invite you to run the ball, and teams have had

950
00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:23,480
Speaker 2: success with that. The Ravens obviously crushed them, and the

951
00:43:23,520 --> 00:43:26,960
Speaker 2: Eagles had sincess on the ground yesterday or on Sunday,

952
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 2: but they needed to throw the ball and when they did,

953
00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:32,200
Speaker 2: they were unable to. And Bill's kind of allowing teams

954
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:36,000
Speaker 2: to run, knowing that eventually they'll need to throw the ball.

955
00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 2: And Dallas as an offense, they kind of want to

956
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:42,480
Speaker 2: run the ball. They've been better when they let Dak

957
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 2: get back there and throw the rock. He's been incredible

958
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 2: these last two weeks when Kellen Moore gets to design

959
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:51,600
Speaker 2: these passing plays to let him spread the ball around

960
00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:54,840
Speaker 2: to these great receivers. But at their core, they still

961
00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 2: want to run the ball. And on the other side,

962
00:43:57,840 --> 00:44:01,279
Speaker 2: the Patriots passing attack has not I've been good whatsoever.

963
00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 2: And I'm really worried about the Patriots offensive line trying

964
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:10,760
Speaker 2: to pass block against Robert Quinn, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Malie Collins.

965
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:13,920
Speaker 2: So I think under forty six is far and away

966
00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:17,880
Speaker 2: my favorite bet of the week so far. And in

967
00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:22,440
Speaker 2: terms of the game itself, I mean, I hate lining

968
00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:24,279
Speaker 2: up to fade the Pats, but I think there's some

969
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:27,440
Speaker 2: value in taking the points as well.

970
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:29,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you on both. Again, this is

971
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:32,080
Speaker 1: a game where I see the value in the Cowboys.

972
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:33,600
Speaker 1: I don't know if I'm gonna be able to pull

973
00:44:33,640 --> 00:44:36,239
Speaker 1: the trigger on it because I rarely am against the Patriots,

974
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:38,279
Speaker 1: but yeah, I agree. I think the Patriots right now

975
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:40,920
Speaker 1: are getting a little bit exposed. I mean, there's still

976
00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 1: a great team. They'll still probably be in the Super Bowl.

977
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:44,960
Speaker 1: They'll still probably win the Super Bowl, as you and

978
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:47,799
Speaker 1: I as Jets fans know, but in the end, for

979
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 1: right now, look, you saw Brady at the end of

980
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 1: that game. He took a beating a little bit, but

981
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:54,319
Speaker 1: he's he's gonna be taking a beating a little bit

982
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:57,319
Speaker 1: more behind that offensive line. They just don't have the

983
00:44:57,360 --> 00:45:00,520
Speaker 1: wide receiver death. I know, Mohammed Sanus on board. You

984
00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:03,040
Speaker 1: know they still have Julian Edelman of course philiped or

985
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 1: set but they just do not have the firepower on

986
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:08,320
Speaker 1: offense and they can't run the ball, so it's really

987
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 1: affecting the way they're able to move. And I agree,

988
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:13,080
Speaker 1: you know, the way you attack the Patriots if you can,

989
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:14,919
Speaker 1: is on the ground. I think you're going to see

990
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 1: a lot of zeke here, So I could see it

991
00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:19,920
Speaker 1: being a low scoring, not crazy low scoring, but a

992
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:21,920
Speaker 1: low scoring kind of drag it out game that's going

993
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:24,239
Speaker 1: to be tight. So I agree, if I'm forced to

994
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:26,640
Speaker 1: go anywhere, I would go under the forty six and

995
00:45:26,680 --> 00:45:29,600
Speaker 1: the Cowboys getting the points. Again, that's scary at this

996
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:31,879
Speaker 1: point even you know when you're getting under a touchdown here,

997
00:45:32,120 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 1: But I do think that there is value there. As

998
00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:36,319
Speaker 1: you said, let's move on here to the Packers at

999
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:38,520
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers. The forty nine ers here are

1000
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:41,399
Speaker 1: now laying three and the over under is at forty six.

1001
00:45:41,440 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 1: Another really good game here. Packers are coming off a

1002
00:45:43,600 --> 00:45:46,359
Speaker 1: bye and they're bounce back win against the Panthers. They're

1003
00:45:46,360 --> 00:45:48,759
Speaker 1: getting a little bit healthier here. Devonte Adams certainly look

1004
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:51,719
Speaker 1: closer to full strength in their last game. Meanwhile, the

1005
00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:54,120
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers wind up winning and covering depending on

1006
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:56,799
Speaker 1: when you got that spread against the Cardinal likes, I mean,

1007
00:45:57,040 --> 00:46:00,600
Speaker 1: I feel horrible for betters who who didn't get it

1008
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:04,799
Speaker 1: until late when the line had moved pretty significantly from

1009
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:06,520
Speaker 1: I think it opened at eleven and a half and

1010
00:46:06,520 --> 00:46:08,080
Speaker 1: it dropped at nine and a half by the end.

1011
00:46:08,719 --> 00:46:11,560
Speaker 1: Over All, though not the greatest effort from the forty

1012
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:15,680
Speaker 1: nine Ers, especially defensively. Offensively, Jimmy g throws the four

1013
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:18,239
Speaker 1: touchdown pass, so of course they're still not having great

1014
00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 1: success the last few weeks running the ball, and that's

1015
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:22,840
Speaker 1: really where you attack the Packers better. So how do

1016
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:24,680
Speaker 1: you feel here? A big one forty nine Ers laying

1017
00:46:24,719 --> 00:46:26,719
Speaker 1: three at home to the Packers with an over under

1018
00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:27,359
Speaker 1: at forty six.

1019
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, the injury report is going to be massively important here.

1020
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:32,960
Speaker 2: I think we're still going to be missing Joe Staley.

1021
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:35,359
Speaker 2: He had minor there's no succincive minor surgery. He had

1022
00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:38,480
Speaker 2: finger surgery following that Seahawks game, missed last week. I

1023
00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:40,960
Speaker 2: don't know what the timetable is for his return. And

1024
00:46:40,960 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 2: then of course Emmanuel Sanders played hurt against the Cardinals

1025
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:51,880
Speaker 2: last week. George kill missed the game. Kill's really important

1026
00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:55,279
Speaker 2: to this offense. He unlocks a lot of things at

1027
00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:59,560
Speaker 2: the second level and really helps the run game as

1028
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:02,319
Speaker 2: well because his threat and play action, whether it be

1029
00:47:02,640 --> 00:47:05,759
Speaker 2: down the seam or on those crossers, really adds a

1030
00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:09,560
Speaker 2: dimension to the Shanahan offense that is important for Jimmy

1031
00:47:09,560 --> 00:47:14,080
Speaker 2: G to operate. I've never been the biggest Jimmy G fan,

1032
00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:17,840
Speaker 2: so I've not been surprised by his I think a

1033
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:22,920
Speaker 2: dozen turnovers so far this year. This line is very interesting.

1034
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:26,719
Speaker 2: This line is very respectful to the Packers. I think

1035
00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 2: they are coming off of by and they have looked

1036
00:47:29,719 --> 00:47:34,560
Speaker 2: great as of late, last scene, beating the Carolina Panthers

1037
00:47:34,600 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 2: pretty badly at home.

1038
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:37,800
Speaker 1: And I'm also.

1039
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:40,080
Speaker 2: Interested to see how much the public is lining up

1040
00:47:40,120 --> 00:47:42,719
Speaker 2: to take the Packers sixty percent of the tickets. The

1041
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:45,480
Speaker 2: money is a little bit more balanced at fifty two

1042
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:51,000
Speaker 2: percent for Green Bay. I think there's a little bit

1043
00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 2: of value on the Packers coming off the bye, but

1044
00:47:55,120 --> 00:47:57,960
Speaker 2: I don't know. They are just very fine margins that

1045
00:47:58,000 --> 00:47:59,880
Speaker 2: are separating these two teams right now, and given the

1046
00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:03,359
Speaker 2: injury speculation at this time, I'm in wait and see

1047
00:48:03,360 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 2: mode with Wiscontin.

1048
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't really think I want any part of

1049
00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:08,759
Speaker 1: this whatever happens. You know, I could see if Sanders

1050
00:48:08,880 --> 00:48:12,200
Speaker 1: and Kittle and Staley are all out, then I see

1051
00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:14,479
Speaker 1: the value in the Packers at that point. But if

1052
00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:17,239
Speaker 1: any or especially all of them are healthy, I just

1053
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:19,239
Speaker 1: don't have a great feel for it. Again, you know,

1054
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:21,800
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers, I was kind of slow to

1055
00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:23,319
Speaker 1: come around on them. Then I bought all in and

1056
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:25,239
Speaker 1: I've watched them closely the last few games. Again, you

1057
00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 1: take Kittle out of that game, and you know, it's

1058
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:30,200
Speaker 1: just it's not the same offense when you have it. Sanders,

1059
00:48:30,239 --> 00:48:32,560
Speaker 1: you know the fact that he was questionable coming in

1060
00:48:32,560 --> 00:48:34,359
Speaker 1: because he left the game before, and he leaves this

1061
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:36,839
Speaker 1: last game against the Cardinals also with the injury. It's

1062
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:38,480
Speaker 1: a little tough to rely on him going forward. I

1063
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:41,360
Speaker 1: mean could look Deebo Samuel certainly stepped up. You know,

1064
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:42,920
Speaker 1: they have a couple of guys that they can throw

1065
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:44,799
Speaker 1: in there. But it's not a game where I would

1066
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:47,279
Speaker 1: feel really confident in their ability to move the ball

1067
00:48:47,320 --> 00:48:50,080
Speaker 1: through the air. Especially the Packers. Although their past defense

1068
00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:52,680
Speaker 1: isn't quite as good as it showed early on this season,

1069
00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:55,239
Speaker 1: it's still their strength and I don't really have that

1070
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:57,439
Speaker 1: much faith in the forty nine ers to be able

1071
00:48:57,480 --> 00:49:01,319
Speaker 1: to run the ball, So it's just it's Sunday night.

1072
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:03,960
Speaker 1: I don't really have a great feel for it at

1073
00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:07,840
Speaker 1: this point, unless again, the forty nine ers are completely

1074
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:10,120
Speaker 1: down all those skill players. If so, then I'll lean

1075
00:49:10,160 --> 00:49:13,600
Speaker 1: the Packers. But at home on Sunday night, it's going

1076
00:49:13,640 --> 00:49:15,960
Speaker 1: to be a little difficult for me to go against them.

1077
00:49:16,000 --> 00:49:17,400
Speaker 1: So it's probably gonna be a game that I'm going

1078
00:49:17,480 --> 00:49:20,920
Speaker 1: to stay away from because it's just it's not a

1079
00:49:20,920 --> 00:49:24,000
Speaker 1: line that I feel all that comfortable with. Let's move

1080
00:49:24,040 --> 00:49:25,920
Speaker 1: on here to our final game, the Monday night football

1081
00:49:25,920 --> 00:49:29,640
Speaker 1: game Ravens at the Rams, still showing the Ravens laying

1082
00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:32,360
Speaker 1: three and a half and the over under at forty

1083
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:33,759
Speaker 1: six and a half, which has come down a bit

1084
00:49:33,760 --> 00:49:36,200
Speaker 1: from forty nine. When I saw the Ravens, they look

1085
00:49:36,360 --> 00:49:42,080
Speaker 1: absolutely unstoppable. Lamar Jackson is playing at an incredibly high level,

1086
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 1: and the defense is healthy and gelling. It's just hard

1087
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:48,680
Speaker 1: to see them being beat, especially by a Rams team

1088
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:52,040
Speaker 1: that has one of the worst offensive lines in the game.

1089
00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:56,880
Speaker 1: They lack any offensive firepower at this point. Maybe Brandon

1090
00:49:56,960 --> 00:49:59,640
Speaker 1: Cooks comes back Robert Woods apparently missed this last game

1091
00:49:59,640 --> 00:50:02,320
Speaker 1: against the The personal issues so used him. He's gonna play.

1092
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:05,319
Speaker 1: Todd Gurley ran pretty well. But I don't know about you, man.

1093
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:08,239
Speaker 1: I'm looking at this game at Ravens, you know, three

1094
00:50:08,239 --> 00:50:11,000
Speaker 1: and a half. I love the Ravens at that number,

1095
00:50:11,000 --> 00:50:12,439
Speaker 1: and I'd be surprised if it doesn't grow.

1096
00:50:12,800 --> 00:50:14,680
Speaker 2: You know what the preseason line was on this game?

1097
00:50:14,840 --> 00:50:18,560
Speaker 2: How about Rams minus seven and a half. Oh my god, Oh,

1098
00:50:18,600 --> 00:50:22,000
Speaker 2: how the times have changed? Yeah, I mean even the

1099
00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:25,279
Speaker 2: one week look ahead was Ravens plus one. You knew

1100
00:50:25,320 --> 00:50:29,000
Speaker 2: that was gonna shift with how the Ravens dominated the

1101
00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:32,160
Speaker 2: Texans last week and the Rams while they did win,

1102
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:35,840
Speaker 2: while they did cover, it was in very ugly fashion

1103
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:39,120
Speaker 2: for the entire world to watch on an Island game

1104
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:43,920
Speaker 2: on Sunday night football. Unsurprisingly, eighty percent of the bets

1105
00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:46,440
Speaker 2: are on Baltimore, but the money's there as well at

1106
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:51,040
Speaker 2: seventy percent. So yeah, I think this line is fair.

1107
00:50:51,560 --> 00:50:54,920
Speaker 2: The fake sharp of me thinks that what are you doing, idiot?

1108
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:56,839
Speaker 2: You have to take the Rams here? Like, how can

1109
00:50:56,840 --> 00:50:59,280
Speaker 2: they be getting this many points at home? The Ravens

1110
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 2: have never been more overvalue than they are, right, now.

1111
00:51:01,560 --> 00:51:06,879
Speaker 2: But the Ravens have also earned this inflation because not

1112
00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:09,239
Speaker 2: only are they doing incredible things on the offensive side

1113
00:51:09,239 --> 00:51:12,759
Speaker 2: of the ball with Lamar and his MVP candidacy, but

1114
00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:19,080
Speaker 2: since getting Marcus Peters and since having Marlin Humphrey and

1115
00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:21,759
Speaker 2: the other quarterback which is I'm blanking on right now

1116
00:51:21,800 --> 00:51:24,719
Speaker 2: coming back Jimmy Smith coming back to full health, this

1117
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:28,080
Speaker 2: defense has been awesome. They had a couple of sacks

1118
00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:32,360
Speaker 2: yesterday were one hundred percent coverage sacks because they're missing

1119
00:51:32,719 --> 00:51:36,440
Speaker 2: Zadari Smith in that front from a pure pass rushing perspective,

1120
00:51:36,480 --> 00:51:41,000
Speaker 2: but guys were blanketed yesterday. And if we're not with Woods,

1121
00:51:41,040 --> 00:51:43,239
Speaker 2: and if we don't have Brandon Cooks, the Rams are

1122
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 2: gonna have a tough time moving the ball against this defense.

1123
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:50,279
Speaker 2: So ultimately, I think this is a fair line. And

1124
00:51:50,360 --> 00:51:52,640
Speaker 2: I'm not going to hate you for laying three and

1125
00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:53,640
Speaker 2: a half with the races.

1126
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:55,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't care that. I'm going to be totally

1127
00:51:55,640 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 1: aligned with the public on this one because because I

1128
00:51:58,160 --> 00:52:02,640
Speaker 1: think that you are. Look, I've watched you know, on

1129
00:52:02,680 --> 00:52:06,000
Speaker 1: Football Sunday, I have you know, four TVs going one

1130
00:52:06,000 --> 00:52:07,400
Speaker 1: of them has red zone, and then I pick a

1131
00:52:07,480 --> 00:52:10,799
Speaker 1: couple of games that I watch necessarily, I'm trying to

1132
00:52:10,800 --> 00:52:13,840
Speaker 1: watch the Rams closely just because I want to understand

1133
00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 1: what is happening right now. You just their defense is legitimate, Okay,

1134
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:20,520
Speaker 1: so their defense is gonna be fine, But with you know,

1135
00:52:20,560 --> 00:52:23,000
Speaker 1: the way the Ravens are playing, you know, I'd like

1136
00:52:23,040 --> 00:52:24,880
Speaker 1: to see them play the Patriots again because I'd like

1137
00:52:24,960 --> 00:52:27,360
Speaker 1: to see what it is if you have a look

1138
00:52:27,400 --> 00:52:29,439
Speaker 1: at exactly what their offense looks like when you play

1139
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:31,600
Speaker 1: them in a regular season game, and whether or not

1140
00:52:31,680 --> 00:52:33,960
Speaker 1: you can make any sort of adjustments to try to

1141
00:52:34,000 --> 00:52:36,239
Speaker 1: slow down Jackson. But the first time you see them

1142
00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:39,279
Speaker 1: this season, with the way Jackson is playing, as good

1143
00:52:39,360 --> 00:52:41,520
Speaker 1: as the Rams defense is playing, you know, especially since

1144
00:52:41,560 --> 00:52:44,200
Speaker 1: they added Jalen Ramsey, I just don't think it's gonna

1145
00:52:44,239 --> 00:52:48,080
Speaker 1: matter all that much. And more importantly, I just don't

1146
00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:50,239
Speaker 1: understand how the Rams are going to be able to

1147
00:52:50,280 --> 00:52:54,280
Speaker 1: do anything offensively. They just can't. Golf is really showing

1148
00:52:54,719 --> 00:52:57,279
Speaker 1: who he is. He is never gonna have enough time

1149
00:52:57,600 --> 00:53:00,279
Speaker 1: to throw in that pocket. Because even if you don't

1150
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:03,400
Speaker 1: love the Ravens pass rush, which is certainly solid enough,

1151
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:05,880
Speaker 1: that offensive line is abysmal. I mean, they're playing with

1152
00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:08,760
Speaker 1: like four backups at this point, it's just not gonna

1153
00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:11,440
Speaker 1: be going well for them. So again, they can stop

1154
00:53:11,440 --> 00:53:13,520
Speaker 1: the run. You know, once Brandon Williams came back, they've

1155
00:53:13,520 --> 00:53:15,879
Speaker 1: been able to do that. You mentioned the cornerbacks. The

1156
00:53:16,120 --> 00:53:18,839
Speaker 1: defense as a whole is gelling. This is as much

1157
00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:22,200
Speaker 1: about the Rams and kind of my lack of respect

1158
00:53:22,239 --> 00:53:24,560
Speaker 1: for them as it is about my immen's respect for

1159
00:53:24,600 --> 00:53:27,200
Speaker 1: the Ravens. So I'll be aligned with the public on

1160
00:53:27,239 --> 00:53:28,759
Speaker 1: this one. I'm okay with it, And again, as you

1161
00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:30,960
Speaker 1: talked about, even when it opened, I think it was

1162
00:53:31,000 --> 00:53:33,680
Speaker 1: a pick em as you mentioned, and it's just swung

1163
00:53:33,719 --> 00:53:36,080
Speaker 1: wildly to the Ravens. So for me, I don't know.

1164
00:53:36,160 --> 00:53:38,040
Speaker 1: I think the public's gonna continue to pound this, and

1165
00:53:38,200 --> 00:53:40,000
Speaker 1: I would get it on the Ravens now because I

1166
00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:41,000
Speaker 1: don't see it coming back.

1167
00:53:41,440 --> 00:53:43,520
Speaker 2: Sometimes you gotta put your SpongeBob SquarePants.

1168
00:53:43,840 --> 00:53:45,640
Speaker 1: I don't mind doing it every now and then with

1169
00:53:45,719 --> 00:53:47,560
Speaker 1: a game like this, and I certainly will be doing

1170
00:53:47,600 --> 00:53:49,680
Speaker 1: it here. That's gonna do it for today's show, Rich,

1171
00:53:49,680 --> 00:53:51,640
Speaker 1: it was great having you back on. Remind everybody where

1172
00:53:51,640 --> 00:53:53,000
Speaker 1: they can find more of you in your work.

1173
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:56,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, check out our podcast, grid Iron Gamble you can

1174
00:53:56,160 --> 00:53:59,160
Speaker 2: get it on any podcastcher We're also on Twitter at

1175
00:53:59,320 --> 00:54:01,839
Speaker 2: grid on Iron Gamble check us out.

1176
00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:04,680
Speaker 1: Awesome. Well, thanks again for coming back on. Hopefully we

1177
00:54:04,680 --> 00:54:05,920
Speaker 1: can do it one more time before the end of

1178
00:54:05,960 --> 00:54:06,400
Speaker 1: the season.

1179
00:54:06,600 --> 00:54:07,799
Speaker 2: My pleasure, j E.

1180
00:54:07,960 --> 00:54:10,880
Speaker 1: Ts Enjoy the game. Thanks again to the sponsor of

1181
00:54:10,920 --> 00:54:13,640
Speaker 1: today's show, bet MGM. Remember to download the bet MGM

1182
00:54:13,719 --> 00:54:16,399
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1183
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1184
00:54:19,520 --> 00:54:21,799
Speaker 1: and don't forget to rate and review the podcast and

1185
00:54:21,840 --> 00:54:24,719
Speaker 1: send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros

1186
00:54:24,760 --> 00:54:27,520
Speaker 1: dot com for your chance to an assigned Odell Beckham

1187
00:54:27,560 --> 00:54:30,200
Speaker 1: Junior Brown Trummet. We'll be back later this week giving

1188
00:54:30,239 --> 00:54:32,480
Speaker 1: some of our best bets for Week twelve. I'll talk

1189
00:54:32,520 --> 00:54:32,960
Speaker 1: to you then