WEBVTT - Special Coverage: US and Iran Agree to Ceasefire Hours Before Trump Deadline 0:00:00.040 --> 0:00:07.000 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:09.160 --> 0:00:13.800 This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg instant reaction 0:00:14.080 --> 0:00:17.919 and analysis from our three thousand journalists and analysts around 0:00:17.960 --> 0:00:19.319 the world. 0:00:20.280 --> 0:00:23.239 From Bloomberg World's headquarters in New York. I'm Doug Prisner. 0:00:23.320 --> 0:00:26.600 The US and Iran have agreed to a two week ceasefire. 0:00:27.080 --> 0:00:30.400 It's expected to halt the American Israeli military campaign in 0:00:30.520 --> 0:00:33.960 exchange for Tehran opening the Strait of Horror moves and 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:36.440 needless to say, this deal will buy time for the 0:00:36.479 --> 0:00:39.120 two sides to reach a more permanent agreement to end 0:00:39.120 --> 0:00:42.400 the war. This conflict has already killed thousands of people 0:00:42.440 --> 0:00:46.519 and sparked a global energy crisis. Let's go to Washington 0:00:46.600 --> 0:00:50.479 and bring in Bloomberg's Eric Martin, one of our reporters 0:00:50.479 --> 0:00:52.800 for Bloomberg News. Eric, thank you so much. I know 0:00:52.920 --> 0:00:56.000 that it's been a busy evening for you. Give me 0:00:56.120 --> 0:00:59.800 a sense of how or the role that Pakistan played 0:01:00.240 --> 0:01:02.000 in bringing us to this point in time. 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:05.640 Sure well, we have seen over the last several weeks 0:01:05.880 --> 0:01:11.000 Pakistan taking the leading role in passing messages between Iran 0:01:11.520 --> 0:01:14.520 and the Trump administration. A couple of weeks ago, we 0:01:14.600 --> 0:01:19.640 confirmed that Pakistan had shared a fifteen point proposal from 0:01:19.680 --> 0:01:24.720 the Trump administration with Iran, and we saw this afternoon 0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:28.679 the strongest indication, the first indication we got that this 0:01:28.720 --> 0:01:34.160 would be a night when diplomacy with notch apparent at 0:01:34.240 --> 0:01:37.800 least short term victory and divert the kind of strikes 0:01:37.800 --> 0:01:41.319 that President Trump had threatened, was when we saw Pakistani 0:01:41.600 --> 0:01:46.319 Prime Minister Shibaz Sharif this afternoon posting on x on 0:01:46.400 --> 0:01:51.280 social media about the Pakistani plea to the US request 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:53.920 to the US to hold off for two weeks on 0:01:54.040 --> 0:01:57.360 the attacks, to agree to a two week street ceasefire 0:01:57.720 --> 0:02:01.880 in exchange for Iran opening the street. And so that 0:02:02.120 --> 0:02:06.040 was kind of mid afternoon today, and that really set 0:02:06.040 --> 0:02:10.640 the tone for a complete one eighty from what we 0:02:10.680 --> 0:02:13.919 had seen coming into the day, which was President Trump 0:02:13.960 --> 0:02:18.120 over the last forty eight hours repeatedly threatening, including using 0:02:19.000 --> 0:02:24.720 curse words on Sunday, to really rain down fire on 0:02:25.480 --> 0:02:28.639 Iran this morning, starting a day with his tweet about 0:02:29.360 --> 0:02:32.760 killing a civilization. And so it's been quite a roller 0:02:32.760 --> 0:02:35.120 coaster in the last twelve hours or so. 0:02:35.160 --> 0:02:37.919 Here no doubt about that, and from the Iranian side, 0:02:38.000 --> 0:02:41.920 indications that there will be safe passage for vessels traveling 0:02:41.960 --> 0:02:44.480 through the straight of Horm moves that will be possible 0:02:44.560 --> 0:02:46.600 for a two week period, Is that right. 0:02:46.960 --> 0:02:49.919 That's what we've seen thus far from the Iramian side, 0:02:50.280 --> 0:02:53.839 And we have also started to see some reporting coming 0:02:53.919 --> 0:02:59.080 out CNN reporting that Special ENVOYE. Steve whit Call, Vice 0:02:59.120 --> 0:03:03.240 President Vance, and President Trump's son in law Jared Kushner 0:03:03.240 --> 0:03:09.800 are expected to attend talks with Iran on Friday in Islamabad. 0:03:10.600 --> 0:03:14.239 So things moving quickly here, moving from the news of 0:03:14.680 --> 0:03:18.640 this ceasefire to the next step, which is trying to 0:03:18.639 --> 0:03:23.600 reach a comprehensive agreement in discussion negotiations between the US 0:03:23.600 --> 0:03:24.160 and IRMA. 0:03:24.400 --> 0:03:27.680 Speaking with Bloomberg, Eric Martin want to bring in Daniel Bimen. 0:03:27.760 --> 0:03:31.800 He is director of the Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism 0:03:31.960 --> 0:03:36.560 Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Daniel, 0:03:36.600 --> 0:03:39.760 thank you so much for being with us to share 0:03:39.800 --> 0:03:42.920 your perspective. Did this strike you at all in a 0:03:42.960 --> 0:03:46.600 surprising way that we would see essentially a dramatic climb 0:03:46.680 --> 0:03:50.560 down from some of the bellios bellicost rhetoric that we'd 0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:51.840 been hearing earlier. 0:03:52.000 --> 0:03:57.360 President Trump was clearly moving towards a decision moment and 0:03:57.760 --> 0:04:01.520 today it was either going to be significant escalation or 0:04:01.560 --> 0:04:04.800 some sort of deal. And he can now claim that 0:04:04.840 --> 0:04:07.840 it was his threats that led the Iranians to the 0:04:07.840 --> 0:04:11.240 negotiating table. It's quite possible he could have gotten this 0:04:11.280 --> 0:04:13.760 deal several weeks ago. So I'm not quite sure that's right, 0:04:14.600 --> 0:04:17.719 but this possibility has been out there. It's not a 0:04:17.760 --> 0:04:20.080 comprehensive deal. It doesn't get all of what the United 0:04:20.120 --> 0:04:22.400 States wants or even close and the same on the 0:04:22.400 --> 0:04:26.960 Iranian side. So both sides, I think are hurting enough 0:04:27.040 --> 0:04:31.239 where they're willing to at least accept a temporary deal, 0:04:31.560 --> 0:04:33.760 where perhaps several weeks ago they might not. 0:04:34.240 --> 0:04:37.400 So, according to the President tonight, the administration has received 0:04:37.440 --> 0:04:40.320 a ten point proposal from the Iranian side. Trump called 0:04:40.320 --> 0:04:44.359 it workable. Kind of the basis for negotiations. What would 0:04:44.400 --> 0:04:49.120 you imagine Iran wants is a part of this negotiation. 0:04:49.560 --> 0:04:54.400 So Iran is claiming fairly ambitious things as part of 0:04:54.440 --> 0:04:58.880 this ten point proposal. Some of it is, of course, 0:04:58.920 --> 0:05:01.839 a permanency is fire, so no renewal of war, and 0:05:01.880 --> 0:05:05.760 that applies not just to Iran but to Lebanon and Yemen, 0:05:06.680 --> 0:05:10.520 but also lifting of both primary and secondary sanctions that 0:05:10.560 --> 0:05:16.960 the US has imposed, unfreezing assets allowing Iran nuclear enrichment, 0:05:17.080 --> 0:05:20.560 while at the same time Iran maintains its position that 0:05:20.600 --> 0:05:22.960 would not seek a nuclear weapon, but it would still 0:05:23.000 --> 0:05:27.280 have a nuclear program. So what Iran wants is proposing 0:05:27.279 --> 0:05:30.240 in the past has not been acceptable to different US administrations. 0:05:30.680 --> 0:05:34.039 But it's a beginning negotiating point, So it's quite possible 0:05:34.480 --> 0:05:38.839 that the final result will be somewhere in between, or frankly, 0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:40.560 that there might not even be a final result. It 0:05:40.600 --> 0:05:44.040 might just be a ceasefire that's indefinitely extended rather than 0:05:44.120 --> 0:05:45.080 a more permanent deal. 0:05:45.400 --> 0:05:49.160 Daniel Blyman from CSIS back to Bloomberg's Eric Martin. Eric, 0:05:49.160 --> 0:05:53.560 we're getting indications from CNN that Steve Whitkoff, along with 0:05:53.680 --> 0:05:57.120 Vice President JD Vance and Jared Kushner, the President's son 0:05:57.160 --> 0:06:00.200 in law, are expected to attend the first round of 0:06:00.240 --> 0:06:04.760 talks in Islamabad on Friday. Do you expect this to 0:06:04.800 --> 0:06:07.200 be wrapped up within this two week period that they're 0:06:07.240 --> 0:06:08.200 calling a ceasefire. 0:06:08.440 --> 0:06:10.680 Well, there certainly seems on the surface to be a 0:06:10.720 --> 0:06:13.600 lot that they need to get agreement on in two weeks. 0:06:14.000 --> 0:06:17.720 Some of the US previous US demands objectives of the 0:06:17.760 --> 0:06:22.279 war in terms of decimating aaron It's missile program, getting 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:25.960 around to stop support for proxies, getting Iran to agree 0:06:26.040 --> 0:06:31.480 to give up not only nuclear weapons ambitions but potential 0:06:31.839 --> 0:06:35.880 nuclear material as well, and to reopen the strait. All 0:06:35.920 --> 0:06:38.120 of these have been things that they've been at longerheads 0:06:38.120 --> 0:06:41.520 in recent days, at least publicly. So it would seem 0:06:41.520 --> 0:06:43.400 if there is a lot that they need to get 0:06:43.440 --> 0:06:47.200 done in those two weeks. Hence the need to run 0:06:47.279 --> 0:06:50.240 the urgency in getting the two sides to sit down 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:54.560 already in just a couple of days from now in Pakistan. 0:06:54.600 --> 0:06:59.080 Apparently back to Daniel Bimen from CSIS, Daniel, we were 0:06:59.240 --> 0:07:03.719 learning from the Iranian side that as long as there 0:07:04.000 --> 0:07:09.320 is no longer military campaigning from the Americans and the 0:07:09.360 --> 0:07:13.440 Israelis on Iran, that the Strait of Horror Moves will 0:07:13.480 --> 0:07:18.360 be open and free for travel for cargo vessels, notably 0:07:18.680 --> 0:07:23.120 those tankers that carry crude oil. Is there something here 0:07:23.160 --> 0:07:25.960 that you believe needs to be caveated or is this 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:29.880 going to be kind of a durable ceasefire do you think? 0:07:29.960 --> 0:07:31.920 Or is there still some level of risk that we 0:07:32.000 --> 0:07:33.400 need to be aware of. 0:07:34.480 --> 0:07:36.920 There's certainly some level of risk, though I should stress 0:07:37.360 --> 0:07:42.880 this ceasefire is good news, but Iran has shown that 0:07:42.960 --> 0:07:46.840 it can close thereat straits, and this Iran hopes will 0:07:46.840 --> 0:07:50.480 be a deterrent against both US and also Israeli attacks. 0:07:50.520 --> 0:07:53.520 And one thing to remember here is, of course, there's 0:07:53.560 --> 0:07:55.960 more than just the United States in Iran, and Israel 0:07:56.000 --> 0:07:58.760 has said it will go along with this ceasefire, but 0:07:58.880 --> 0:08:02.560 Israel has its own intro and it's quite possible, especially 0:08:02.640 --> 0:08:05.840 now that Iran's air defenses are destroyed, that Israel might 0:08:05.880 --> 0:08:09.120 be a future attack, and that could lead to the 0:08:09.160 --> 0:08:13.640 unraveling or at least short term unraveling of any ceasefire arrangement. 0:08:13.920 --> 0:08:17.720 So to what extent will the Israelis have influence over 0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:19.960 these talks that will be happening in Pakistan. 0:08:21.760 --> 0:08:25.600 The Israelis are listened to very carefully by the Trump administration, 0:08:26.360 --> 0:08:29.680 and certainly many of their views on Iran's nuclear program 0:08:29.920 --> 0:08:33.199 and the terrorist groups that around supports those are also 0:08:33.320 --> 0:08:36.200 shared in Washington. So there is a fair amount of 0:08:36.840 --> 0:08:40.640 common agreement. But that said, there may be differences in 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:44.720 terms of how much risk the two countries are willing 0:08:44.720 --> 0:08:48.480 to take with regard to Iran's nuclear enrichment. There may 0:08:48.520 --> 0:08:53.079 also be differences with regard to verification for things like 0:08:53.120 --> 0:08:55.760 support to Irani and proxies. So you can imagine a 0:08:55.840 --> 0:08:59.560 thousand different details where there might be a disagreement. But 0:09:00.120 --> 0:09:05.080 Israel has weakened around significantly in this conflict, and I 0:09:05.080 --> 0:09:07.400 think Israeli leaders are looking at this and saying this 0:09:07.440 --> 0:09:10.880 has been a major success. And as a result, I 0:09:10.880 --> 0:09:12.640 think they recognized that this war was going to end 0:09:12.679 --> 0:09:16.160 sometime and the current arrangement may be the best they 0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:17.240 can realistically hope for. 0:09:18.000 --> 0:09:20.800 So to what extent, though, when you look at the 0:09:20.840 --> 0:09:25.560 situation that exist with Egypt and Turkey that have been 0:09:25.720 --> 0:09:29.600 also involved with Pakistan in trying to get talks moving 0:09:29.640 --> 0:09:33.360 forward towards some type of negotiated settlement, do you expect 0:09:33.360 --> 0:09:36.079 those parties also to be a part of what gets 0:09:36.080 --> 0:09:36.520 worked out. 0:09:37.800 --> 0:09:44.280 Absolutely, And these parties have influence. Egypt has some influence 0:09:44.320 --> 0:09:46.960 with Israel. They've worked closely together on a number of things, 0:09:46.960 --> 0:09:50.480 including Gaza. But both of them have tried to work 0:09:50.520 --> 0:09:54.800 with the Trump administration and they recognize that the destabilization 0:09:54.840 --> 0:09:57.040 in the Middle East is strongly not in their interest 0:09:57.600 --> 0:10:01.679 and are pushing towards resolution of this, and both are 0:10:01.720 --> 0:10:04.880 going to try to make a continued pitch for diplomacy, 0:10:05.600 --> 0:10:09.079 which along with Pakistan, they have had some success. It's 0:10:09.120 --> 0:10:11.239 been a difficult road, but you do have to recognize 0:10:11.280 --> 0:10:13.800 that many of these countries deserve credit for bringing the 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:14.760 two parties closer. 0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:17.560 One of the aims, though, if I'm correct in this 0:10:17.840 --> 0:10:20.680 was regime change, and it's not clear that that's occurred. 0:10:22.200 --> 0:10:24.440 I would say certainly regime change has not occurred. It 0:10:24.559 --> 0:10:28.280 is obviously different leaders because Israel and the United States 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:30.880 have killed many of them, but the same regime, the 0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:35.360 same power system is in place and around. This was 0:10:36.080 --> 0:10:39.480 a goal to President Trump himself articulated, but he also 0:10:39.760 --> 0:10:43.960 articulated numerous other goals. Figures like Secretary of State Rubio 0:10:44.080 --> 0:10:46.960 articulated different goals. So the United States. One of the 0:10:47.559 --> 0:10:50.959 criticisms I have is the United States has been really 0:10:51.000 --> 0:10:53.199 all over the map in what is trying to achieve. 0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:57.000 So if you take minimal your subjectives, some have been achieved, 0:10:57.240 --> 0:11:00.000 but if you look at more maximum ones, especially regime change, 0:11:00.360 --> 0:11:01.160 it's nowhere close. 0:11:01.280 --> 0:11:03.959 Daniel, thank you so much for joining us and sharing 0:11:04.000 --> 0:11:07.560 your perspective. Daniel Biman is director of the Warfare, Irregular 0:11:07.640 --> 0:11:11.240 Threats and Terrorism Program at the Center for Strategic and 0:11:11.480 --> 0:11:16.000 International Studies. Our thanks to to Bloomberg's Eric Martin, a 0:11:16.120 --> 0:11:20.160 reporter in Washington, d C. Let's get to Bloomberg's Christina Raffini, 0:11:20.160 --> 0:11:23.160 she as co host of Bloomberg This Weekend. Thank you 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:26.800 for making time. I think it's your day off. Yeah, right, 0:11:27.720 --> 0:11:29.719 But there's never a day off, is there when you're 0:11:29.720 --> 0:11:30.400 in the news. 0:11:30.200 --> 0:11:33.840 Business and when in diplomacy. I was literally just what's 0:11:33.840 --> 0:11:36.079 happening before we came on with a Middle Eastern source 0:11:36.080 --> 0:11:37.720 and I said the same thing, it's my day off 0:11:37.760 --> 0:11:39.480 about to go on, and they said, we don't have 0:11:39.600 --> 0:11:41.720 days off anymore. So we're all in it together and 0:11:41.760 --> 0:11:43.319 we're just trying to figure out what's going on. 0:11:43.440 --> 0:11:45.199 So, based on what you were reading in the news 0:11:45.200 --> 0:11:47.400 flow today, is this really a surprise that there have 0:11:47.520 --> 0:11:51.439 been there's been this kind of eleventh hour temporary solution. 0:11:51.960 --> 0:11:54.400 I don't think so. I think the tea leaves were 0:11:54.559 --> 0:11:57.600 just not really there. But you and you never know 0:11:57.640 --> 0:11:59.800 what this administration and it's such a small group of 0:11:59.840 --> 0:12:02.400 Pea people making these decisions. I've said before, they can 0:12:02.440 --> 0:12:03.319 pivot on a dime. 0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:04.680 So even what sources are. 0:12:04.520 --> 0:12:06.400 Telling you can be right up until the minute the 0:12:06.440 --> 0:12:09.440 President changes his mind. The thing is, I think the 0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:12.480 President really did need an off ramp. Sources have told me. 0:12:12.520 --> 0:12:17.680 It's unclear how real this Pakistani moderation is, but it's 0:12:17.760 --> 0:12:20.480 real enough that it allowed the President a way to 0:12:20.600 --> 0:12:24.679 get out of these highly charged threats he's been making 0:12:24.920 --> 0:12:27.760 over the weekend. I mean, we saw that profanity lace 0:12:27.840 --> 0:12:30.040 tweet came out while we were on the air on Sunday, 0:12:30.040 --> 0:12:32.040 and I got to tell you, we were reading another 0:12:32.080 --> 0:12:34.720 tweet from the President and I scrolled up and saw that, 0:12:34.800 --> 0:12:37.000 and I was afraid to read it on air because 0:12:37.000 --> 0:12:39.960 I thought, oh, gosh, am I on a wrong website? 0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:42.640 Is it's a fake truth social And it wasn't until 0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:45.120 it came through the terminal that we then realized now 0:12:45.160 --> 0:12:47.400 that was actually what the President had said. So a 0:12:47.400 --> 0:12:50.280 lot of relief throughout the release tonight, a lot of 0:12:50.280 --> 0:12:52.120 relief on this side of the ocean. 0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:56.600 Speaking with Bloomberg's Christina Raffini, co host of Bloomberg This Weekend, 0:12:56.960 --> 0:13:01.199 about our top story President Trump tonight, coponing his threat 0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:04.280 to a track or attack I should say civilian infrastructure 0:13:04.320 --> 0:13:08.280 across Iran for two weeks as negotiators inch closer to 0:13:08.400 --> 0:13:11.600 a cease fire deal. The deadline had been eight pm 0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:14.720 Eastern time, but around three twenty five this afternoon we 0:13:14.800 --> 0:13:17.760 learned that Pakistan asked the President for a two week extension, 0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:21.640 and this evening President Trump said he accepted that request. 0:13:21.960 --> 0:13:25.320 The Asranian Iranians, according to the New York Times, have 0:13:25.520 --> 0:13:29.480 agreed to this cease fire and Iran tonight saying that 0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:32.440 safe passage through the Strait of horm Moves is possible 0:13:32.480 --> 0:13:35.840 for this two week period. We're seeing crude oil prices 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:37.080 simply collapse right now. 0:13:37.280 --> 0:13:37.360 Now. 0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:40.800 I want to bring in Terry Haynes from Pangaea Policy. Terry, 0:13:40.800 --> 0:13:43.200 thanks for making time. It's a busy night. Let me 0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:43.920 get your reaction. 0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:45.319 Good evening, Doug. 0:13:46.280 --> 0:13:49.839 My reaction is that, as Churchill. 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:52.400 Once put it, jaw jaw is better than war war. 0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:56.439 So the fact that the two sides continue to jaw 0:13:56.559 --> 0:14:00.480 is a good thing. I heard enough of Christina's point 0:14:01.080 --> 0:14:04.640 to to agree that you know, there there are lots 0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:09.440 and lots of loose ends here and UH and tentative 0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:15.559 tentative UH. The agreements for a ceasefire without it without 0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:19.720 a complete agreement on anything. UH. Thirdly, just for markets, UH, 0:14:20.120 --> 0:14:23.440 I would urge that, you know, this looks much more 0:14:23.600 --> 0:14:28.360 like uh, the you know, a brief step back than 0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:32.400 any kind of any kind of directional I think you 0:14:32.560 --> 0:14:38.360 can't assume that the direction of travel here uh is 0:14:38.360 --> 0:14:42.640 inexorably towards peace and people people want to believe that. 0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:45.320 They hope it's true, of course, and and. 0:14:45.240 --> 0:14:48.080 They will expect that a move in this direction is 0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:50.920 a move towards that. Uh. I'd urge a lot of 0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:54.320 caution on that front, because you know, we frankly don't 0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:57.640 know enough about what the basis of the ten point 0:14:57.680 --> 0:15:01.400 plan is, whether it covers a broad wath of diplomatic 0:15:01.920 --> 0:15:04.960 issues that the United States wants, whether it's a very 0:15:05.040 --> 0:15:09.040 narrow set of issues like Iroun wants, or exactly what's 0:15:09.080 --> 0:15:10.880 in it. But the fact that we've got a little 0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:13.560 breathing room here is generally speaking a good thing. 0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:16.720 Terry, give me a sense of what President Trump has 0:15:16.720 --> 0:15:20.120 been facing in terms of domestic pressure to try to 0:15:20.200 --> 0:15:23.600 dial down the severity of what's been happening even beyond 0:15:23.600 --> 0:15:27.040 the rhetorical side, and arrive at some sort of deal. 0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:30.000 Well, Doug, I think what's been going on from the 0:15:30.040 --> 0:15:34.000 Trump side is you know, look looking through all the 0:15:34.120 --> 0:15:37.040 smoke and mirrors, you know, kind of the fog of 0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:39.600 war stuff that goes on. And I don't mean to 0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:43.280 minimize any of it, because some of it, uh you know, 0:15:43.360 --> 0:15:47.240 they've blown back into the sony sorts of things or 0:15:47.280 --> 0:15:52.720 in the civilization or you know, quite consequential and serious statements. 0:15:52.960 --> 0:15:54.800 But I think. 0:15:55.280 --> 0:15:56.680 But I do think diversionary. 0:15:58.320 --> 0:16:03.200 Yeah, the war is not popular for a lot of reasons. 0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:07.640 Republicans to date have tended to back. 0:16:08.480 --> 0:16:11.720 Trump for the short term, more or less uncritically. 0:16:12.400 --> 0:16:17.760 Democrats decided within hours of the beginning of hostilities that 0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:21.280 it would oppose and so what you and. 0:16:21.360 --> 0:16:27.000 You see that political split among the elected leaders mirrored 0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:32.640 in the public by and large. But the public does support, 0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:36.120 i think, on a bipartisan basis, in a quite large one, 0:16:37.120 --> 0:16:41.200 the core goals of removing Iran's ability to have a 0:16:41.280 --> 0:16:44.200 nuclear weapon. I think that that needs to be understood. 0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:49.480 So as long as the president remains the actual policy, 0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:52.960 the actual steps to get to a resolution remain laser 0:16:53.000 --> 0:16:58.240 focused on that. That said, that goal, that set of goals, 0:16:58.960 --> 0:17:03.640 the public I think will continue to support if the 0:17:03.680 --> 0:17:10.960 administration starts dissipating, I think, and then becomes less clear 0:17:11.000 --> 0:17:13.520 about its objectives, then I think what you have is 0:17:13.520 --> 0:17:17.840 a situation where opposition in the country rises fairly quickly 0:17:18.520 --> 0:17:24.360 and Congressional opposition rises fairly quickly. Let's remember that the idea, 0:17:24.760 --> 0:17:30.640 the War Powers resolution idea, kicks in again at a 0:17:30.680 --> 0:17:32.960 minimum of sixty days, so we're coming up on that 0:17:33.760 --> 0:17:34.040 by the. 0:17:34.080 --> 0:17:34.680 End of the month. 0:17:35.240 --> 0:17:38.320 And so there's a lot of pressure both domestically in 0:17:38.440 --> 0:17:42.679 terms of in terms of how people feel about the 0:17:42.720 --> 0:17:47.960 war and the levers available with Congress to direct some 0:17:48.000 --> 0:17:52.840 sort of conclusion. There's a real set of pressures on 0:17:53.600 --> 0:17:55.960 the White House to try to conclude something within the 0:17:55.960 --> 0:17:56.879 next three weeks or so. 0:17:57.640 --> 0:18:00.800 Speaking with Terry Hayes of Pangaeapolis, we'll get back to 0:18:01.040 --> 0:18:04.360 Christina Ruffini now she is co host of Bloomberg this weekend. 0:18:04.640 --> 0:18:08.320 So Christina, as I mentioned, according to Axios, will have 0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:13.359 the first round of negotiations happening Friday in Islamabad, and 0:18:13.400 --> 0:18:16.520 we are learning from CNN tonight that Israel has agreed 0:18:16.560 --> 0:18:20.760 to suspend bombing during these negotiations. I would imagine during 0:18:20.800 --> 0:18:25.760 this two week interregnant period how closely aligned are the 0:18:25.880 --> 0:18:28.480 US and Israel when it comes to the objectives here 0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:31.240 for some sort of deal, And would you expect Israel 0:18:31.320 --> 0:18:33.359 to play any role in these negotiations. 0:18:34.920 --> 0:18:38.080 I don't think they can on the face I mean, obviously, 0:18:38.960 --> 0:18:41.760 the Prime Minister Benjamin att Yang, who is very influential 0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:45.480 in the White House, and depending on what reporting you're reading, 0:18:46.000 --> 0:18:48.919 likely had a big influence in convincing President Trump to 0:18:49.000 --> 0:18:51.240 launch this attack in the first place. Has been something 0:18:51.280 --> 0:18:53.919 he wanted for decades, and he has waited for the 0:18:53.920 --> 0:18:56.760 correct American president to be in place to convince the 0:18:56.840 --> 0:18:59.280 US to take this action. That the dangers around pose 0:18:59.359 --> 0:19:02.840 not just Israe, but to the region at large. The 0:19:03.000 --> 0:19:06.000 presence of Israel publicly in these talks would be a 0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:09.640 poison pill. That would not be something Iran could allow. 0:19:10.240 --> 0:19:11.679 Just on the face of it, that would not be 0:19:11.720 --> 0:19:14.320 something I don't think Pakistan would want either. That's just 0:19:14.359 --> 0:19:16.240 not going to work. It's not going to be productive. 0:19:16.600 --> 0:19:19.080 Now Israel in the US, of course back channeling will 0:19:19.119 --> 0:19:21.960 be aligned and will be coordinating. It is significant that 0:19:22.160 --> 0:19:24.919 Israel has agreed to hold its fire as well for 0:19:25.000 --> 0:19:27.560 the past I mean, for these next two weeks because 0:19:27.880 --> 0:19:31.600 that cease fire would not hold because diplomatically, if you 0:19:31.640 --> 0:19:34.800 are iron, if you are getting these incomings, they are 0:19:34.840 --> 0:19:38.520 not really distinguishing between the policy of those two countries 0:19:38.560 --> 0:19:40.680 at this time. So if one word of fire or 0:19:40.720 --> 0:19:43.159 the other word of fire, the Citystown will break the 0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:46.840 seatown excuse me. The ceasefire would break down completely because 0:19:46.880 --> 0:19:49.880 they would assume that any strike Israel took had been 0:19:49.920 --> 0:19:52.359 made with the approval of the United States, whether or 0:19:52.400 --> 0:19:53.280 not that was true. 0:19:53.560 --> 0:19:56.360 Let's bring into real I'm sorry, go ahead, no, no, no, no, 0:19:56.440 --> 0:19:59.399 you finished ape. Well, I was going to bring in 0:19:59.440 --> 0:20:02.560 your friends. Mason, who is our White House in Washington? Correspond? 0:20:02.640 --> 0:20:04.600 Oh, all right, I guess we can bring in Jephnie. 0:20:04.800 --> 0:20:07.040 Okay, Jeff, what are you hearing from the White House 0:20:07.080 --> 0:20:07.640 at this hour? 0:20:08.400 --> 0:20:10.919 Christina doesn't want to share the airtime. That was the 0:20:10.920 --> 0:20:13.359 problem there, and I'm just kidding. We love being on together. 0:20:14.520 --> 0:20:15.640 What am I hearing from the White House? 0:20:15.640 --> 0:20:15.800 Well? 0:20:15.880 --> 0:20:18.480 Number one the spokesman for the White House's President Donald Trump, 0:20:18.960 --> 0:20:24.240 and he made news tonight with his decision to put 0:20:24.240 --> 0:20:27.480 off this strike, or to delay it in any case, 0:20:27.520 --> 0:20:31.560 for two weeks, and also to accept as he's fire 0:20:31.680 --> 0:20:37.640 from Iran. So I think the big question marks continue 0:20:37.680 --> 0:20:40.199 to be whether or not this will lead to a 0:20:40.200 --> 0:20:42.760 more permanent deal, and he hinted at that in his 0:20:42.840 --> 0:20:45.919 post by talking about the fact that he said Iran 0:20:46.000 --> 0:20:49.760 had given a ten point plan that he spoke somewhat 0:20:49.800 --> 0:20:53.879 favorably of, and whether or not the next two weeks 0:20:53.920 --> 0:20:57.480 is enough time for them to agree on that. But 0:20:57.600 --> 0:21:01.879 certainly if he does get the straight up horm moves opened, 0:21:01.880 --> 0:21:05.320 if Iran follows through on that and opens it up 0:21:05.359 --> 0:21:08.280 for two weeks, that's a huge what I think he 0:21:08.320 --> 0:21:12.119 would probably call gift to the United States and the 0:21:12.119 --> 0:21:14.680 rest of the world while they continue these negotiations. 0:21:15.200 --> 0:21:18.800 Back to Terry Haines from Pangaea Policy, Terry, the Iranian 0:21:18.880 --> 0:21:23.159 parliament passed a I guess we can call it legislation 0:21:23.320 --> 0:21:27.440 recently which essentially applied a toll for vessels passing through 0:21:27.480 --> 0:21:30.399 the Strait. Do you think that's a deal breaker for 0:21:30.720 --> 0:21:34.240 the Trump administration, that there is no way that any 0:21:34.280 --> 0:21:38.359 type of fee could be charged for traffic in the Strait? 0:21:39.640 --> 0:21:45.119 Well, you know, in a state like Iran. Yeah, I 0:21:45.160 --> 0:21:48.360 think those those pieces of legislation aren't going to matter 0:21:48.520 --> 0:21:53.160 very much. What will matter a great deal is whether 0:21:53.320 --> 0:21:58.080 or not Iran holds to what appears to be it's 0:21:58.160 --> 0:22:01.560 agreement to open the straight during these two during this 0:22:01.640 --> 0:22:06.119 two week period, if Iran, Iran keeps to its word 0:22:07.359 --> 0:22:11.400 on reopening the street, it has some ability to recover 0:22:11.560 --> 0:22:14.520 a little bit of world opinion. But right now what 0:22:14.600 --> 0:22:16.800 you have is is, you know, Irn's not a very 0:22:16.840 --> 0:22:20.520 good job of uh making it hard for its allies 0:22:20.880 --> 0:22:25.600 UH China and Russia UH to overtly be helpful. There's 0:22:25.600 --> 0:22:27.920 a variety of ways and that's been reported in which 0:22:27.920 --> 0:22:32.680 they are being more or less covertly helpful, but overtly UH. 0:22:32.800 --> 0:22:37.680 You know, the Europe is not fully in the situation 0:22:37.880 --> 0:22:42.639 where it is interested in uh in coming down on 0:22:42.680 --> 0:22:47.119 the Iranians, nor with the global the global South. But UH, 0:22:47.800 --> 0:22:50.960 you know Iran has done itself a great disservice with 0:22:51.000 --> 0:22:54.320 its golf neighbors. UH. It can recover a little bit 0:22:54.359 --> 0:22:58.639 of of of of good opinion, UH if it holds 0:22:58.680 --> 0:23:02.800 to this deal UH without complications or strings or invoking 0:23:02.840 --> 0:23:03.480 the law. 0:23:03.280 --> 0:23:07.800 That you just mentioned, which quite an appropriate question. But 0:23:08.160 --> 0:23:11.119 should it decide at once to start playing games or 0:23:11.160 --> 0:23:16.119 favoritism or selectively applying tolls or anything like that that 0:23:16.320 --> 0:23:19.040 is going to edge closer to being a deal breaker 0:23:19.720 --> 0:23:22.440 with the United States and Israel. And it's exactly the 0:23:22.560 --> 0:23:26.120 kind of thing that talking about when we discussed earlier 0:23:26.520 --> 0:23:30.040