WEBVTT - NFL Week 5 Picks & Best Bets + Against the Spread Selections (Ep. 352) 0:00:00.960 --> 0:00:03.120 Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.160 --> 0:00:05.440 your bet so it's be Joey Pa joe Pizzapia, and 0:00:05.440 --> 0:00:07.840 it's week five. It's time to take a look at 0:00:07.840 --> 0:00:10.920 the best lines, the best spreads, and of course all 0:00:11.039 --> 0:00:13.120 of the betting you could possibly handle. And to help 0:00:13.160 --> 0:00:16.080 me do it, of course, is Andrew Erickson, mister prop 0:00:16.200 --> 0:00:19.040 prophet himself, who has got a wedding to go to 0:00:19.120 --> 0:00:21.320 this weekend. Don't worry, it's not his. That's next year. 0:00:21.560 --> 0:00:23.400 I'll be waiting for my invitation. Iris and I didn't 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:24.639 get to save the date yet. I don't know what 0:00:24.720 --> 0:00:26.800 that's all about, but we'll see what happens. And of course, 0:00:27.360 --> 0:00:29.160 one of my good pals who's back. I haven't gotten 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:30.440 to talk to you in a little while, so we 0:00:30.440 --> 0:00:32.800 had to have her back on the show, Samantha Pravidi. 0:00:32.840 --> 0:00:34.960 You could find her work over at the thirty third 0:00:35.000 --> 0:00:37.959 team right now. You can follow her on X. It's 0:00:37.960 --> 0:00:40.080 getting It's taking me a while, but I'm starting to 0:00:40.080 --> 0:00:41.800 say X instead of Twitter. I still don't like it. 0:00:42.000 --> 0:00:45.200 You can follow her at Samantha NFL. Samantha, welcome back. 0:00:45.280 --> 0:00:48.960 I know in your spare time You're doing so many things, 0:00:49.280 --> 0:00:52.480 including the snowboard instructing, which is fascinating to me because 0:00:52.520 --> 0:00:54.760 I'm just a dumb old city boy. So for those 0:00:54.800 --> 0:00:57.280 of us who have never been skiing, never been snowboarding, 0:00:57.600 --> 0:00:59.640 what is rule number one? Now, that's the thing that 0:00:59.680 --> 0:01:01.320 I need to know. Like, if I go to do that, 0:01:01.440 --> 0:01:03.480 what is the thing that I should pay attention to 0:01:03.560 --> 0:01:05.120 the most before I get out there on the slopes 0:01:05.120 --> 0:01:06.440 and possibly hurt myself? 0:01:07.400 --> 0:01:09.759 Take a ski lesson that would be the most important. 0:01:10.480 --> 0:01:13.760 See your snowboard lesson really really important. It's hard to 0:01:13.840 --> 0:01:17.840 learn well without any kind of instruction, and you know, 0:01:17.880 --> 0:01:20.600 it's good to build that foundation and take away some 0:01:20.640 --> 0:01:23.360 of the anxiety. But one really big tip if you 0:01:23.360 --> 0:01:25.360 come up to the mountains up here as we are 0:01:25.400 --> 0:01:28.160 at ninety six hundred feet, similar thing is if you 0:01:28.200 --> 0:01:31.320 know you're playing the Rockies or playing the Broncos, big 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:35.720 big adjustments to altitude, so have to hydrate a ton hydration. 0:01:35.959 --> 0:01:37.360 And if I end up having to be in the 0:01:37.400 --> 0:01:40.160 little you know kids group, you know French frying and 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:42.160 pizzaing like they do on South Park, I'll try to 0:01:42.160 --> 0:01:44.880 figure that out. Ericson you were telling me before the 0:01:44.880 --> 0:01:46.960 show that the wedding you're attending this weekend is near 0:01:47.000 --> 0:01:51.320 Jillette Stadium. While you're there hanging out in that general area, 0:01:51.760 --> 0:01:53.280 do you want to look for the Patriots offense you 0:01:53.280 --> 0:01:55.000 can find it or maybe a cornerback They might be 0:01:55.000 --> 0:01:56.080 able to use you this weekend. 0:01:57.000 --> 0:01:59.640 Well, they're going to use jac Jackson to I talked 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:01.680 to my author about two weeks. I was like, Dad, 0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:03.600 Jase jack is gonna be on the Patriots in two 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:05.640 weeks or so. H Like, he gave it two weeks 0:02:05.640 --> 0:02:07.640 and again, one thing led to another. He got benched 0:02:07.640 --> 0:02:09.720 by the Chargers, and what do you know? The Patriots 0:02:09.760 --> 0:02:12.359 get one of their cornerbacks that they draft, they turn 0:02:12.440 --> 0:02:15.480 to a productive starter, and then he gets overpaid in 0:02:15.520 --> 0:02:17.360 free agency by another team and then what do you know, 0:02:17.520 --> 0:02:18.760 he's back on the Patriots. 0:02:19.240 --> 0:02:22.320 Yeah, he was a healthy scratch last time for the Chargers, 0:02:22.320 --> 0:02:25.200 a team that can't stop anybody in the secondary. Healthy scratch. 0:02:25.840 --> 0:02:27.080 But you know who will go back and it'll be 0:02:27.120 --> 0:02:29.880 productive because it's the system and you just ask him 0:02:29.919 --> 0:02:31.400 to do one thing. That's all he needs to do. 0:02:31.520 --> 0:02:32.760 But we got a lot of things to do. We're 0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:35.560 gonna give you our favorite weekly side bets the totals. 0:02:35.600 --> 0:02:37.600 We're gonna go through all that before we do, don't forget. 0:02:37.680 --> 0:02:40.240 Make sure you drop a comment below and subscribe to 0:02:40.240 --> 0:02:42.360 the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Even if you're listening on 0:02:42.360 --> 0:02:45.440 the podcast end, run over to your YouTube app and 0:02:45.480 --> 0:02:48.040 go subscribe, because when you do, you might have a 0:02:48.120 --> 0:02:50.440 chance to win this Odell Beckham autograph jersey thanks to 0:02:50.480 --> 0:02:53.399 us of our Betting Pros. Again, subscribe, drop a comment below, 0:02:53.440 --> 0:02:55.080 and don't forget to click that little bell to lit 0:02:55.120 --> 0:02:57.600 Go's ding for notification, so you know if you are 0:02:57.639 --> 0:02:59.480 the big winner of the Odell Beckham jersey. 0:02:59.600 --> 0:02:59.760 End. 0:03:00.160 --> 0:03:02.160 Every single time a piece of content drops here on 0:03:02.160 --> 0:03:04.440 the channel, you'll be aware. We got live streams going on, 0:03:04.480 --> 0:03:06.760 we got the college football It is hot right nowt 0:03:06.760 --> 0:03:09.079 Me tell you they do some great work. Samantha, you're 0:03:09.120 --> 0:03:11.720 our guest. Let's kick off week five. Give me number 0:03:11.720 --> 0:03:13.800 one on your list of things we want to bet 0:03:14.040 --> 0:03:15.280 for this week in the NFL. 0:03:15.880 --> 0:03:19.560 Sure, so I happen to like the Cardinals' first half 0:03:19.600 --> 0:03:21.639 money line that is plus one twenty. You can get 0:03:21.639 --> 0:03:25.040 that at DraftKings. They are playing the lowly Bengals. So 0:03:25.280 --> 0:03:27.600 the shortback story here is that I actually took Bengals 0:03:27.600 --> 0:03:30.400 Titans first half under last week. Obviously that didn't go 0:03:30.480 --> 0:03:33.040 super well for me. And the absolute knife twist to 0:03:33.080 --> 0:03:35.280 this whole story is that it ended on a Derrick 0:03:35.360 --> 0:03:39.400 Henry passing touchdown, like just absolute pain cool to watch 0:03:39.440 --> 0:03:42.000 but painful. But you know, I got to say that 0:03:42.040 --> 0:03:44.360 the Bengals did their part of it and that they 0:03:44.400 --> 0:03:47.720 only scored three points in the whole game. But yeah, 0:03:47.720 --> 0:03:49.960 so this time I am taking the Cardinals to lead 0:03:50.040 --> 0:03:53.480 going into half halftime. As a mnemic as the Bengals 0:03:53.480 --> 0:03:56.200 have been this year, they've been actually a lot worse 0:03:56.240 --> 0:03:58.880 early in the game since He's not led once going 0:03:58.880 --> 0:04:01.600 into the half. They are bottom three and first half 0:04:01.640 --> 0:04:05.520 points this year, averaging just four point eight all season, 0:04:05.560 --> 0:04:08.280 ahead of only the Falcons and Giants. They're scoring fifty 0:04:08.280 --> 0:04:10.240 six percent more points in the second half, which is 0:04:10.240 --> 0:04:12.960 actually not that much, but there are half to half 0:04:12.960 --> 0:04:16.440 differential is negative thirty four points. So on the flip side, 0:04:16.560 --> 0:04:18.280 we've got the Cardinals, who are actually one of the 0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:20.320 better first half teams and one of the worst second 0:04:20.360 --> 0:04:24.000 half teams. They're averaging about eleven more points per half 0:04:24.040 --> 0:04:27.000 than the Bengals and have a twenty positive twenty four 0:04:27.040 --> 0:04:30.599 point differential, and then like even just like first half aside, 0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:34.240 we just watching the Bengals has been really, really painful. 0:04:34.920 --> 0:04:38.159 Joe Burrow just visibly hampered by this calf thing. And 0:04:38.200 --> 0:04:40.600 then we've got T Higgins who may or may not play. 0:04:40.640 --> 0:04:42.640 If he plays, he has a broken rib, which you 0:04:42.680 --> 0:04:45.400 know I wouldn't want to be playing with either. Joe Burrow. 0:04:45.600 --> 0:04:48.080 Last year he had the second highest completion rate in 0:04:48.120 --> 0:04:50.520 the NFL, and this year he's at fifty seven point six, 0:04:50.600 --> 0:04:55.279 so definitely needs to something is not working for him. 0:04:55.320 --> 0:04:58.400 So I am definitely concerned about him overall. But I 0:04:58.440 --> 0:05:00.400 think like the best bet in this game for me 0:05:00.920 --> 0:05:03.080 is to take the Cardinals first half of my line. 0:05:03.279 --> 0:05:06.160 Yeah plus T one twenty. You're getting that right now 0:05:06.200 --> 0:05:08.800 over on DK. And I gotta be honest with a 0:05:08.839 --> 0:05:11.360 Sunday night, when I was putting the early look Ahead 0:05:11.400 --> 0:05:14.200 show together, the original number was five and a half 0:05:14.240 --> 0:05:16.039 on Arizona, and I jumped on that because the next 0:05:16.040 --> 0:05:17.480 morning we got up to do the show, that look 0:05:17.480 --> 0:05:19.640 Ahead show that we drop every Monday, and it was 0:05:19.680 --> 0:05:23.000 three and I was like, wow, that didn't take very 0:05:23.000 --> 0:05:24.960 long for people to really marinate on how bad the 0:05:24.960 --> 0:05:27.480 Bengals look, and it's been a tough, tough sled. My 0:05:27.520 --> 0:05:29.800 concern here too, going forward is what happens if they 0:05:29.800 --> 0:05:32.719 lose here, If they lose the Arizona Cardinals. I imagine 0:05:32.760 --> 0:05:34.320 Joe Burrow goes in the ir and he just tries 0:05:34.360 --> 0:05:35.760 to get healthy and they try to figure it out. 0:05:35.760 --> 0:05:38.159 But it's all about that long term investment. They're paying 0:05:38.200 --> 0:05:39.920 him a lot of money. Andrew Rickson, I'm paying you 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:42.039 a lot of money. So tell me something, tell me 0:05:42.040 --> 0:05:43.760 something good right now. Give me a pick for Week five? 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:44.279 What do you got? 0:05:45.200 --> 0:05:49.920 Patriots Saints under forty and a half, the stone cold 0:05:49.960 --> 0:05:53.279 lock of the week. Baby, Like these offices can get 0:05:53.360 --> 0:05:55.800 out of their own way. So and we're just looking 0:05:55.800 --> 0:05:58.560 at what they've done so far this year. Patriots four 0:05:58.600 --> 0:06:01.719 and oh towards the under, Saints four and oh towards 0:06:01.760 --> 0:06:05.040 the under. The Saints are thirty second in red scoring 0:06:05.200 --> 0:06:08.960 red zone scoring rate. They can't score points. And everyone 0:06:08.960 --> 0:06:11.680 looked at Derek Carr as this massive upgrade coming in. 0:06:12.000 --> 0:06:14.680 He's gonna be a better than Andy Dalton. No, not 0:06:14.800 --> 0:06:16.760 in the case whatsoever. I backed the Saints last because 0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:18.880 I thought Winston was gonna play. He didn't play, and 0:06:18.880 --> 0:06:21.080 what do you know, the Saints lost because I started 0:06:21.080 --> 0:06:22.040 Derek Carr so. 0:06:22.480 --> 0:06:24.440 Well for me, a car with half an alarm. I mean, 0:06:24.520 --> 0:06:25.800 let's be honest, he wasn't the. 0:06:25.839 --> 0:06:27.680 One he playing the game because he's afraid to lose 0:06:27.680 --> 0:06:31.120 his job because he's not good. That's why I can't 0:06:31.440 --> 0:06:34.560 back the Patriots here, just because I don't know have 0:06:34.640 --> 0:06:36.920 any confience in their offense either. But for me it's 0:06:37.279 --> 0:06:39.800 I like the defenses, I like the under, and if 0:06:39.800 --> 0:06:40.880 I had to pick a side, I would pick the 0:06:40.880 --> 0:06:42.920 Patriots because they were playing at home, but I don't 0:06:42.920 --> 0:06:45.080 feel confident enough to put it as my best bet, 0:06:45.200 --> 0:06:46.919 so I would just go to the under here. And 0:06:46.960 --> 0:06:48.719 I've been better as I've been tracking my bets so 0:06:48.800 --> 0:06:52.520 far this year with the betting primer, I'm up positively 0:06:52.560 --> 0:06:55.440 on totals. Like that's where I've been better than picking side, 0:06:55.480 --> 0:06:57.560 So trying to embrace that a little bit more, so, 0:06:57.600 --> 0:06:59.800 I'm gonna start with the with the under here. 0:07:00.200 --> 0:07:03.120 I actually tease the New Orleans Saints to three over 0:07:03.200 --> 0:07:06.560 on FanDuel and took that instead because with all the 0:07:06.600 --> 0:07:08.280 corners being heard, I just think there's going to be 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:11.200 a terrible situation for the page. And Matthew Judonnell too, Like, 0:07:11.400 --> 0:07:13.840 you can't lose that many guys on defense, Christian Gonzalez, 0:07:13.880 --> 0:07:16.800 everyone named Jones. I mean, it's just crazy right now, 0:07:16.880 --> 0:07:19.520 what they're got going on there. It's just unbelievable. Everyone 0:07:19.560 --> 0:07:21.960 but Mac Jones. It's the only Jones is actually playing. 0:07:21.960 --> 0:07:24.120 They got three guys that are hurt. One might be 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:26.920 coming back, but it's a bad scene right now, depending 0:07:26.960 --> 0:07:29.560 on Derek Carr's health. Like, I just think the Saints 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:31.040 are going to go in there and win this football game. 0:07:31.040 --> 0:07:33.160 All right, back to you, Samantha, Let's get another one 0:07:33.160 --> 0:07:35.040 of your favorite bets for Week five. What do you have? 0:07:35.560 --> 0:07:37.520 Well, this one's slam because I'm just gonna go off 0:07:37.560 --> 0:07:39.679 of what Andrew said. That was one of my best 0:07:39.720 --> 0:07:43.200 bets as well. I mean, both offenses are like the 0:07:43.320 --> 0:07:46.080 definition of mid. Actually mid might be a compliment so 0:07:46.480 --> 0:07:49.520 at this point, but bottom six and points scored for 0:07:49.560 --> 0:07:53.280 both teams and bottom and below average and controlling time 0:07:53.320 --> 0:07:56.320 of possession. Both defenses are obviously pretty good. Though you 0:07:56.360 --> 0:07:59.280 did mention that there are multiple injuries to the Patriots side, 0:07:59.400 --> 0:08:01.760 but all of the Saints games this year have been 0:08:01.800 --> 0:08:04.200 pretty low scoring. In fact, every one of them would 0:08:04.200 --> 0:08:06.840 have hit their respective unders. We talked about Derek Carr 0:08:06.840 --> 0:08:10.200 dealing with this ac joint injury which absolutely killed Chris 0:08:10.240 --> 0:08:12.920 o'lave last week, very very painful to get point nine 0:08:12.960 --> 0:08:15.200 fantasy points. But even when Carr was healthy, I mean, 0:08:15.200 --> 0:08:17.520 the Saints games, like I said, have just been pretty 0:08:17.560 --> 0:08:19.640 low scoring. They did get a little bit of spark 0:08:19.680 --> 0:08:22.000 with Alvin Kamara coming back last week, which was nice, 0:08:22.040 --> 0:08:25.480 But on the Patriots side, it has been a troubling trend, 0:08:25.840 --> 0:08:28.760 going from twenty points in the first week seventeen five 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:32.160 and fifteen and three, so definitely not trending in the 0:08:32.240 --> 0:08:35.920 right direction. They did play some tough defenses the Cowboys 0:08:35.960 --> 0:08:38.280 and Jets, but the scenes have been pretty good themselves, 0:08:38.360 --> 0:08:40.760 So you know, I've been concerned about this offense. They 0:08:40.800 --> 0:08:43.440 haven't been really great at establishing the run. Their best 0:08:43.440 --> 0:08:46.160 pass catcher from a production standpoint is tight end Hunter 0:08:46.280 --> 0:08:48.679 Henry and their quarterbacks by back Jones, so I've never 0:08:48.720 --> 0:08:51.640 really been a huge believer in him. He could definitely 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:53.320 be on the run a lot to the Steelers running 0:08:53.360 --> 0:08:56.080 top seven in sacks per game, So I am all 0:08:56.120 --> 0:08:58.040 about the under forty. 0:08:57.800 --> 0:09:01.040 Points, depressing Sunday for the Patriots. I can tell you 0:09:01.160 --> 0:09:03.400 right now. Alvin Kamara, the big beneficiary too, was just 0:09:03.440 --> 0:09:05.200 looking to see because I thought he had fourteen targets 0:09:05.200 --> 0:09:07.760 that he did last like fourteen targets from Derek Carr 0:09:07.840 --> 0:09:09.880 who couldn't probably throw the ball more than ten yards. 0:09:10.040 --> 0:09:12.920 He was a warrior last week Ericson. That's what he was. 0:09:13.320 --> 0:09:15.720 You're dogging him fighting for his job. He's a leader, 0:09:15.800 --> 0:09:19.239 that's what he's doing. Anyway, we'll get to the individuals 0:09:19.280 --> 0:09:20.959 tomorrow and the prop show. That'll be a good time. 0:09:21.000 --> 0:09:22.920 Chris MEETI is gonna join us, Chris Robin's gonna join 0:09:22.960 --> 0:09:25.080 It's gonna be a great show. Before we get to 0:09:25.679 --> 0:09:27.880 the next pick here that we have. Don't forget everybody. 0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:30.319 When you download that Betting pros app, make sure you 0:09:30.360 --> 0:09:32.240 go to the community tab and make sure you join 0:09:32.280 --> 0:09:34.680 the NFL contest we've got going on, because the grand 0:09:34.720 --> 0:09:37.040 prize winner is gonna get a Jackson Smith and Jigba Jersey. 0:09:37.280 --> 0:09:38.840 All you have to do is make five picks a week. 0:09:38.880 --> 0:09:40.720 But if you're saying, oh Joe, it's already October, I 0:09:40.760 --> 0:09:44.000 missed out, doesn't matter. We're still doing weekly prizes, monthly prizes. 0:09:44.040 --> 0:09:45.680 You just have to make one hundred picks through the year, 0:09:46.200 --> 0:09:48.000 five picks a week. That's it. That's all you gotta do. 0:09:48.080 --> 0:09:51.040 Go to bettingpros dot com slash NFL contest or go 0:09:51.080 --> 0:09:53.040 to the community tab on the app. That's all you 0:09:53.080 --> 0:09:55.400 have to do and just join the NFL Contest again. 0:09:55.400 --> 0:09:58.240 We're giving away swag to our Betting Pro Shop, our 0:09:58.280 --> 0:10:00.640 Fantasy Pro Shop. We're giving away upgrades Fantasy Pros and 0:10:00.679 --> 0:10:04.079 Betting Pros to the premium as well, So get on 0:10:04.080 --> 0:10:06.960 that and don't forget also that you've got something special 0:10:07.000 --> 0:10:09.760 going on too for Io Wes. If you haven't downloaded 0:10:09.880 --> 0:10:11.599 the Betting Pros app, do it this weekend because you 0:10:11.640 --> 0:10:14.440 get three free days of premium to check out that 0:10:14.880 --> 0:10:18.040 which is outstanding all the best betting tools on the planet. 0:10:18.080 --> 0:10:21.200 Andrew Ericksson, let's go back to you for another week. 0:10:21.240 --> 0:10:21.559 Two pick. 0:10:21.640 --> 0:10:23.640 What do you have for the people going with the 0:10:23.720 --> 0:10:28.440 Ravens minus four playing in Pittsburgh. I understand the line 0:10:28.440 --> 0:10:30.720 because they got to give respect to the Steelers defense 0:10:30.880 --> 0:10:34.079 Mike Tomlin, but come on, like the offense for the 0:10:34.120 --> 0:10:37.640 Pittsburgh Steelers is so bad it is horrible up and down. 0:10:37.760 --> 0:10:39.840 You have Kenny Pickett, who's coming off an injury, who's 0:10:39.840 --> 0:10:41.280 going to play in this game. But he's not the 0:10:41.320 --> 0:10:43.640 only guy that's hurt. Pat Fayrenmouth is not going to play. 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:45.720 They're starting left tackle Dan Moore is not gonna play. 0:10:45.800 --> 0:10:48.199 Their starting guard James Daniels is also dealing with an injury, 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:51.000 so they're gonna have their rookie left tackles start this game. 0:10:51.480 --> 0:10:54.640 And I'm having a banged up quarterback already. I get 0:10:54.640 --> 0:10:56.760 that the defense for Baltimore's not elite because the've also 0:10:56.760 --> 0:10:59.240 been banged up, but they've also played very well despite 0:10:59.280 --> 0:11:01.440 missing a lot of their ty guys. The Ravens take 0:11:01.480 --> 0:11:04.720 care of business against bad offenses and incompetent play callers. 0:11:05.160 --> 0:11:07.160 That's what the Steelers are bringing to the table here 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:11.240 in this game. So again, this isn't a matchup where 0:11:11.240 --> 0:11:13.520 the Ravens are gonna overlook the Steelers. They know the 0:11:13.520 --> 0:11:16.600 Steelers are one of their biggest rivals, but they're clearly 0:11:16.640 --> 0:11:19.240 the better team here, and the fact that it's only 0:11:19.320 --> 0:11:22.400 four points, I'm taking it like I just think Baltimore 0:11:22.520 --> 0:11:25.160 is hands down the better team. They beat Pittsburgh in 0:11:25.200 --> 0:11:27.280 Pittsburgh last year with Tyler Huntley by a field goal. 0:11:27.440 --> 0:11:30.560 I know Trubisky started that game, but the Steelers offense, 0:11:30.600 --> 0:11:32.320 I don't know how they're gonna score, Like unless TJ. 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:35.360 Watt gets a pick like forces a strip fumble that 0:11:35.480 --> 0:11:37.200 is a scoring for a touchdown, Like, how do the 0:11:37.200 --> 0:11:40.079 Steelers actually score points? I think the Ravens know that. 0:11:40.240 --> 0:11:42.120 The Ravens know that they can be conservative. They can 0:11:42.200 --> 0:11:44.280 run the football with Gus Edwards against one of the 0:11:44.320 --> 0:11:47.640 worst run defenses in the NFL and play keep away 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:50.720 and just win the game. So I like the Ravens here. 0:11:50.920 --> 0:11:53.040 I think they get to win just because the Steelers 0:11:53.080 --> 0:11:55.640 are the walking wounded right now. Now we're getting close to Halloween. 0:11:55.679 --> 0:11:57.800 But yeah, the Steelers are just not in a good place. 0:11:58.040 --> 0:12:00.360 I just noticed on x that Matt canada Is Burner 0:12:00.360 --> 0:12:02.000 account just followed you. So it's going to be a 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:03.959 busy weekend for you, just telling you. 0:12:03.960 --> 0:12:05.720 Well, this is going to be the last game at Canon. 0:12:05.760 --> 0:12:07.640 Maybe coaching for the Pittsburgh has. 0:12:07.559 --> 0:12:09.480 Got a lot more time to tweet or x or 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:12.120 whatever the hell he's gonna do. But I agree with you, 0:12:12.760 --> 0:12:14.240 it's been bad. You know, we always like to give 0:12:14.280 --> 0:12:16.240 the Tomlin team's respect, and we always like to give 0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:19.200 them some sort of preference or treatment because they're always ppared, 0:12:19.200 --> 0:12:21.480 they're aways well coached, and we did that in week 0:12:21.520 --> 0:12:24.440 one and we got our doors blown off on it 0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:26.240 because of how good the forty Niners were and how 0:12:26.280 --> 0:12:30.080 ill prepared the Pittsburgh Steelers were. And it hasn't gotten better, 0:12:30.200 --> 0:12:32.760 it really hasn't. It's just been one thing after another. 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:35.600 So Mike Tomlin said there's changes coming. We'll see. Maybe 0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:37.640 there'll be some changes after this. Once a, Maantha Pravidio, 0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:40.080 let's change up the conversation. Give me another pick here 0:12:40.400 --> 0:12:42.120 that you like for Week five in the NFL. 0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:46.800 Sure, so I like the Lions team total over twenty 0:12:46.840 --> 0:12:49.920 seven and a half points, which is minus one fifteen. 0:12:49.960 --> 0:12:51.520 You can get that at a few places, but I 0:12:51.520 --> 0:12:53.719 got to get bet three six five. There are two 0:12:53.760 --> 0:12:56.280 many main reasons that I like this bet. First, I 0:12:56.320 --> 0:12:58.480 think that last week was a little bit of an 0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:02.840 aberration for the Panthers. I think their defense definitely outperformed expectations, 0:13:03.080 --> 0:13:05.520 and Kirk Cousins and the Vikings did what they usually do, 0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:08.720 like played down to their competition, like they the only 0:13:08.760 --> 0:13:10.800 reason that they kept it that close for that long. 0:13:10.960 --> 0:13:13.480 Was really that and I you know, I actually lie 0:13:13.640 --> 0:13:16.559 bet the Vikings plus two and a half, and obviously, 0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:18.600 like I had to sweat that for all of like 0:13:18.679 --> 0:13:21.120 one millisecond because I just knew the Panthers were going 0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:23.680 to find a way to lose that game. But the 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:25.839 second reason I like this is that the Lions are 0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:29.000 at home and Jaredduff is a crazy home road split. 0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:31.080 I don't know if he just likes to like sleep 0:13:31.080 --> 0:13:33.400 in his own bed, or maybe he has trouble throwing 0:13:33.640 --> 0:13:36.280 outside of Ford Field, but whatever it is, since the 0:13:36.280 --> 0:13:39.360 beginning of the twenty two season, he's averaging near like 0:13:39.440 --> 0:13:42.920 forty more passing yards per game. In eleven home games, 0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:46.240 he has twenty seven touchdowns to five interceptions. Ten road 0:13:46.280 --> 0:13:51.199 games eight touchdowns to five interceptions, So huge, huge divergence there. 0:13:51.600 --> 0:13:54.480 You know, there's minor concerned that if the Lions jump 0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:56.400 out to a really early lead, they could take their 0:13:56.400 --> 0:13:58.080 foot off the gas, but that isn't something that we 0:13:58.160 --> 0:14:01.320 saw against the Packers for sure. So what I do 0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:02.840 think is that they will jump out to it early, 0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:06.280 probably lean on that rush game, which you know will 0:14:06.280 --> 0:14:09.360 probably hurt a lot of fantasy managers feelings because Steven 0:14:09.400 --> 0:14:11.920 Montgomery will probably end up with like thirty carries. But 0:14:12.360 --> 0:14:15.360 you know, anyway, I just think that there's no way 0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:17.120 that they don't tack on at least thirty points on 0:14:17.120 --> 0:14:17.920 this Panthers team. 0:14:18.720 --> 0:14:22.040 Yeah, I think a highly likely scenario, that's for sure. 0:14:22.960 --> 0:14:26.240 You know when Also, everybody is talking about live betting. 0:14:26.240 --> 0:14:28.160 I was talking about it on Monday, made a lot 0:14:28.160 --> 0:14:31.440 of money, the same concept as like the Denver Broncos 0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:33.040 all of a sudden went to plus five hundred. So 0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:34.760 I was like, yeah, well, I'm gonna bet them because 0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:36.400 Chicago can't get out of their own way. They can't 0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:38.120 possibly win this game. And they didn't let me down. 0:14:38.400 --> 0:14:40.960 I did sweat that one though, that one I was sweating. 0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:43.240 Of course, they didn't kick a field goal, so I'm okay. 0:14:43.320 --> 0:14:45.600 But I want to let everybody know. Speaking of love betting. 0:14:46.120 --> 0:14:50.120 Next Thursday on our discord at fantasypros dot com slash chat, 0:14:50.160 --> 0:14:53.160 you can go join our Betting Pros channel Derek Brown 0:14:53.160 --> 0:14:55.120 and I during Thursday night football, right around a halftime, 0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:56.920 We're going to jump in there talk about some live 0:14:56.920 --> 0:14:59.480 betting potential things. Take your questions too, So if you haven't, 0:14:59.480 --> 0:15:02.400 it's free to join fancaybors dot com slash chat, go 0:15:02.440 --> 0:15:04.360 take a look at that again, join the Betting Pros 0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:07.000 channel and when you do that Thursday night next week, 0:15:07.040 --> 0:15:08.560 we're gonna be jumping in there and talking to you 0:15:08.560 --> 0:15:10.600 guys about making me making some money while the game 0:15:10.680 --> 0:15:13.680 is going on live. Andrew Erickson, we got Thursday night 0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:16.520 football tonight. Maybe not an excited game. Again, the aforementioned 0:15:16.520 --> 0:15:18.600 Bears are playing, so Scott bog and I will be 0:15:18.600 --> 0:15:20.600 taking everybody through that at five pm Eastern live on 0:15:20.640 --> 0:15:23.560 the channel, as we do every single Thursday. But before 0:15:23.600 --> 0:15:25.360 we get to that, let's get to another one of 0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:26.040 your picks here. 0:15:26.080 --> 0:15:29.640 What do you have going with the Falcons minus one 0:15:29.680 --> 0:15:33.400 and a half over at MGM minus one fifteen? Look, 0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:35.560 the two quarterbacks in this game could not be on 0:15:35.840 --> 0:15:38.000 different ends of the spectrum, Like it couldn't be wider. 0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:39.120 Everyone loves c J. 0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:42.040 Stroud. Everybody hates Desmon Ridder. Like if you've listened to 0:15:42.120 --> 0:15:46.200 any or any content this week, that's been the highlight. 0:15:46.320 --> 0:15:49.240 Like the headline Ridder is horrible. Stroud is Peyton manning 0:15:49.760 --> 0:15:52.920 at the Texans. They blow away with the draft. But anyway, 0:15:53.320 --> 0:15:55.200 looking at Ritter, what he does at home is very 0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:56.200 differentrom what he does on the road. 0:15:56.200 --> 0:15:56.520 Dosnety. 0:15:56.560 --> 0:15:59.040 Ritter is undefeated at home at the professional level, at 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:03.240 the college level, never lost a football game at home. Now, 0:16:03.880 --> 0:16:07.960 the Falcons their defense underrated, not enough people are talking 0:16:07.960 --> 0:16:10.680 about because the offense being bad is kind of what's 0:16:10.760 --> 0:16:14.440 highlighting this team. But all the defensive adjustments they made 0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:17.160 during the offseason, adding guys like Klays Campbell, bringing in 0:16:17.200 --> 0:16:19.840 guy like Jesse Bates like has shown up on the field. 0:16:20.080 --> 0:16:22.080 So they're one of the better defenses in terms of 0:16:22.080 --> 0:16:25.280 generating pressure, in terms of not allowing yards after the catch. 0:16:25.720 --> 0:16:28.200 So I think that this is a spot where I'm 0:16:28.440 --> 0:16:30.720 kind of buying the dip on the Atlanta Falcons, Like 0:16:30.760 --> 0:16:33.040 we back them a lot in the offseason, and when 0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:34.960 they played home, twenty four and a half points per 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:37.520 game at home this year on the road six and 0:16:37.560 --> 0:16:40.360 a half points per game. So it's the stark difference 0:16:40.360 --> 0:16:42.760 between Desmond Ritter because when he plays at home, he's 0:16:42.760 --> 0:16:45.040 not pressured. Like when he's not under pressure, he can 0:16:45.080 --> 0:16:48.120 actually operate as a normal functioning quarterback, which I expect 0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:50.600 him to do here against the Houston Texans, who don't 0:16:50.640 --> 0:16:54.000 have a pass rush as good as Jacksonville or as Detroit, 0:16:54.200 --> 0:16:55.480 so I think that he's going to be able to 0:16:55.520 --> 0:16:57.440 operate from the pocket here. I mean, look at the 0:16:57.480 --> 0:17:00.440 coaching matchup between Arthur Smith and Demico Ryans. We saw 0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:03.800 this last year Smith. Arthur Smith had the edge. The 0:17:03.840 --> 0:17:06.760 Atlanta Falcons beat the forty nine Ers defense twenty eight 0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:10.520 to fourteen. Marcus Mariota completed all but one of his passes. 0:17:11.000 --> 0:17:12.880