Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
Speaker 1: your bet so it's be Joey Pa joe Pizzapia, and
Speaker 1: it's week five. It's time to take a look at
Speaker 1: the best lines, the best spreads, and of course all
Speaker 1: of the betting you could possibly handle. And to help
Speaker 1: me do it, of course, is Andrew Erickson, mister prop
Speaker 1: prophet himself, who has got a wedding to go to
Speaker 1: this weekend. Don't worry, it's not his. That's next year.
Speaker 1: I'll be waiting for my invitation. Iris and I didn't
Speaker 1: get to save the date yet. I don't know what
Speaker 1: that's all about, but we'll see what happens. And of course,
Speaker 1: one of my good pals who's back. I haven't gotten
Speaker 1: to talk to you in a little while, so we
Speaker 1: had to have her back on the show, Samantha Pravidi.
Speaker 1: You could find her work over at the thirty third
Speaker 1: team right now. You can follow her on X. It's
Speaker 1: getting It's taking me a while, but I'm starting to
Speaker 1: say X instead of Twitter. I still don't like it.
Speaker 1: You can follow her at Samantha NFL. Samantha, welcome back.
Speaker 1: I know in your spare time You're doing so many things,
Speaker 1: including the snowboard instructing, which is fascinating to me because
Speaker 1: I'm just a dumb old city boy. So for those
Speaker 1: of us who have never been skiing, never been snowboarding,
Speaker 1: what is rule number one? Now, that's the thing that
Speaker 1: I need to know. Like, if I go to do that,
Speaker 1: what is the thing that I should pay attention to
Speaker 1: the most before I get out there on the slopes
Speaker 1: and possibly hurt myself?
Speaker 2: Take a ski lesson that would be the most important.
Speaker 2: See your snowboard lesson really really important. It's hard to
Speaker 2: learn well without any kind of instruction, and you know,
Speaker 2: it's good to build that foundation and take away some
Speaker 2: of the anxiety. But one really big tip if you
Speaker 2: come up to the mountains up here as we are
Speaker 2: at ninety six hundred feet, similar thing is if you
Speaker 2: know you're playing the Rockies or playing the Broncos, big
Speaker 2: big adjustments to altitude, so have to hydrate a ton hydration.
Speaker 1: And if I end up having to be in the
Speaker 1: little you know kids group, you know French frying and
Speaker 1: pizzaing like they do on South Park, I'll try to
Speaker 1: figure that out. Ericson you were telling me before the
Speaker 1: show that the wedding you're attending this weekend is near
Speaker 1: Jillette Stadium. While you're there hanging out in that general area,
Speaker 1: do you want to look for the Patriots offense you
Speaker 1: can find it or maybe a cornerback They might be
Speaker 1: able to use you this weekend.
Speaker 3: Well, they're going to use jac Jackson to I talked
Speaker 3: to my author about two weeks. I was like, Dad,
Speaker 3: Jase jack is gonna be on the Patriots in two
Speaker 3: weeks or so. H Like, he gave it two weeks
Speaker 3: and again, one thing led to another. He got benched
Speaker 3: by the Chargers, and what do you know? The Patriots
Speaker 3: get one of their cornerbacks that they draft, they turn
Speaker 3: to a productive starter, and then he gets overpaid in
Speaker 3: free agency by another team and then what do you know,
Speaker 3: he's back on the Patriots.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he was a healthy scratch last time for the Chargers,
Speaker 1: a team that can't stop anybody in the secondary. Healthy scratch.
Speaker 1: But you know who will go back and it'll be
Speaker 1: productive because it's the system and you just ask him
Speaker 1: to do one thing. That's all he needs to do.
Speaker 1: But we got a lot of things to do. We're
Speaker 1: gonna give you our favorite weekly side bets the totals.
Speaker 1: We're gonna go through all that before we do, don't forget.
Speaker 1: Make sure you drop a comment below and subscribe to
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Speaker 3: End.
Speaker 1: Every single time a piece of content drops here on
Speaker 1: the channel, you'll be aware. We got live streams going on,
Speaker 1: we got the college football It is hot right nowt
Speaker 1: Me tell you they do some great work. Samantha, you're
Speaker 1: our guest. Let's kick off week five. Give me number
Speaker 1: one on your list of things we want to bet
Speaker 1: for this week in the NFL.
Speaker 2: Sure, so I happen to like the Cardinals' first half
Speaker 2: money line that is plus one twenty. You can get
Speaker 2: that at DraftKings. They are playing the lowly Bengals. So
Speaker 2: the shortback story here is that I actually took Bengals
Speaker 2: Titans first half under last week. Obviously that didn't go
Speaker 2: super well for me. And the absolute knife twist to
Speaker 2: this whole story is that it ended on a Derrick
Speaker 2: Henry passing touchdown, like just absolute pain cool to watch
Speaker 2: but painful. But you know, I got to say that
Speaker 2: the Bengals did their part of it and that they
Speaker 2: only scored three points in the whole game. But yeah,
Speaker 2: so this time I am taking the Cardinals to lead
Speaker 2: going into half halftime. As a mnemic as the Bengals
Speaker 2: have been this year, they've been actually a lot worse
Speaker 2: early in the game since He's not led once going
Speaker 2: into the half. They are bottom three and first half
Speaker 2: points this year, averaging just four point eight all season,
Speaker 2: ahead of only the Falcons and Giants. They're scoring fifty
Speaker 2: six percent more points in the second half, which is
Speaker 2: actually not that much, but there are half to half
Speaker 2: differential is negative thirty four points. So on the flip side,
Speaker 2: we've got the Cardinals, who are actually one of the
Speaker 2: better first half teams and one of the worst second
Speaker 2: half teams. They're averaging about eleven more points per half
Speaker 2: than the Bengals and have a twenty positive twenty four
Speaker 2: point differential, and then like even just like first half aside,
Speaker 2: we just watching the Bengals has been really, really painful.
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow just visibly hampered by this calf thing. And
Speaker 2: then we've got T Higgins who may or may not play.
Speaker 2: If he plays, he has a broken rib, which you
Speaker 2: know I wouldn't want to be playing with either. Joe Burrow.
Speaker 2: Last year he had the second highest completion rate in
Speaker 2: the NFL, and this year he's at fifty seven point six,
Speaker 2: so definitely needs to something is not working for him.
Speaker 2: So I am definitely concerned about him overall. But I
Speaker 2: think like the best bet in this game for me
Speaker 2: is to take the Cardinals first half of my line.
Speaker 1: Yeah plus T one twenty. You're getting that right now
Speaker 1: over on DK. And I gotta be honest with a
Speaker 1: Sunday night, when I was putting the early look Ahead
Speaker 1: show together, the original number was five and a half
Speaker 1: on Arizona, and I jumped on that because the next
Speaker 1: morning we got up to do the show, that look
Speaker 1: Ahead show that we drop every Monday, and it was
Speaker 1: three and I was like, wow, that didn't take very
Speaker 1: long for people to really marinate on how bad the
Speaker 1: Bengals look, and it's been a tough, tough sled. My
Speaker 1: concern here too, going forward is what happens if they
Speaker 1: lose here, If they lose the Arizona Cardinals. I imagine
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow goes in the ir and he just tries
Speaker 1: to get healthy and they try to figure it out.
Speaker 1: But it's all about that long term investment. They're paying
Speaker 1: him a lot of money. Andrew Rickson, I'm paying you
Speaker 1: a lot of money. So tell me something, tell me
Speaker 1: something good right now. Give me a pick for Week five?
Speaker 1: What do you got?
Speaker 3: Patriots Saints under forty and a half, the stone cold
Speaker 3: lock of the week. Baby, Like these offices can get
Speaker 3: out of their own way. So and we're just looking
Speaker 3: at what they've done so far this year. Patriots four
Speaker 3: and oh towards the under, Saints four and oh towards
Speaker 3: the under. The Saints are thirty second in red scoring
Speaker 3: red zone scoring rate. They can't score points. And everyone
Speaker 3: looked at Derek Carr as this massive upgrade coming in.
Speaker 3: He's gonna be a better than Andy Dalton. No, not
Speaker 3: in the case whatsoever. I backed the Saints last because
Speaker 3: I thought Winston was gonna play. He didn't play, and
Speaker 3: what do you know, the Saints lost because I started
Speaker 3: Derek Carr so.
Speaker 1: Well for me, a car with half an alarm. I mean,
Speaker 1: let's be honest, he wasn't the.
Speaker 3: One he playing the game because he's afraid to lose
Speaker 3: his job because he's not good. That's why I can't
Speaker 3: back the Patriots here, just because I don't know have
Speaker 3: any confience in their offense either. But for me it's
Speaker 3: I like the defenses, I like the under, and if
Speaker 3: I had to pick a side, I would pick the
Speaker 3: Patriots because they were playing at home, but I don't
Speaker 3: feel confident enough to put it as my best bet,
Speaker 3: so I would just go to the under here. And
Speaker 3: I've been better as I've been tracking my bets so
Speaker 3: far this year with the betting primer, I'm up positively
Speaker 3: on totals. Like that's where I've been better than picking side,
Speaker 3: So trying to embrace that a little bit more, so,
Speaker 3: I'm gonna start with the with the under here.
Speaker 1: I actually tease the New Orleans Saints to three over
Speaker 1: on FanDuel and took that instead because with all the
Speaker 1: corners being heard, I just think there's going to be
Speaker 1: a terrible situation for the page. And Matthew Judonnell too, Like,
Speaker 1: you can't lose that many guys on defense, Christian Gonzalez,
Speaker 1: everyone named Jones. I mean, it's just crazy right now,
Speaker 1: what they're got going on there. It's just unbelievable. Everyone
Speaker 1: but Mac Jones. It's the only Jones is actually playing.
Speaker 1: They got three guys that are hurt. One might be
Speaker 1: coming back, but it's a bad scene right now, depending
Speaker 1: on Derek Carr's health. Like, I just think the Saints
Speaker 1: are going to go in there and win this football game.
Speaker 1: All right, back to you, Samantha, Let's get another one
Speaker 1: of your favorite bets for Week five. What do you have?
Speaker 2: Well, this one's slam because I'm just gonna go off
Speaker 2: of what Andrew said. That was one of my best
Speaker 2: bets as well. I mean, both offenses are like the
Speaker 2: definition of mid. Actually mid might be a compliment so
Speaker 2: at this point, but bottom six and points scored for
Speaker 2: both teams and bottom and below average and controlling time
Speaker 2: of possession. Both defenses are obviously pretty good. Though you
Speaker 2: did mention that there are multiple injuries to the Patriots side,
Speaker 2: but all of the Saints games this year have been
Speaker 2: pretty low scoring. In fact, every one of them would
Speaker 2: have hit their respective unders. We talked about Derek Carr
Speaker 2: dealing with this ac joint injury which absolutely killed Chris
Speaker 2: o'lave last week, very very painful to get point nine
Speaker 2: fantasy points. But even when Carr was healthy, I mean,
Speaker 2: the Saints games, like I said, have just been pretty
Speaker 2: low scoring. They did get a little bit of spark
Speaker 2: with Alvin Kamara coming back last week, which was nice,
Speaker 2: But on the Patriots side, it has been a troubling trend,
Speaker 2: going from twenty points in the first week seventeen five
Speaker 2: and fifteen and three, so definitely not trending in the
Speaker 2: right direction. They did play some tough defenses the Cowboys
Speaker 2: and Jets, but the scenes have been pretty good themselves,
Speaker 2: So you know, I've been concerned about this offense. They
Speaker 2: haven't been really great at establishing the run. Their best
Speaker 2: pass catcher from a production standpoint is tight end Hunter
Speaker 2: Henry and their quarterbacks by back Jones, so I've never
Speaker 2: really been a huge believer in him. He could definitely
Speaker 2: be on the run a lot to the Steelers running
Speaker 2: top seven in sacks per game, So I am all
Speaker 2: about the under forty.
Speaker 1: Points, depressing Sunday for the Patriots. I can tell you
Speaker 1: right now. Alvin Kamara, the big beneficiary too, was just
Speaker 1: looking to see because I thought he had fourteen targets
Speaker 1: that he did last like fourteen targets from Derek Carr
Speaker 1: who couldn't probably throw the ball more than ten yards.
Speaker 1: He was a warrior last week Ericson. That's what he was.
Speaker 1: You're dogging him fighting for his job. He's a leader,
Speaker 1: that's what he's doing. Anyway, we'll get to the individuals
Speaker 1: tomorrow and the prop show. That'll be a good time.
Speaker 1: Chris MEETI is gonna join us, Chris Robin's gonna join
Speaker 1: It's gonna be a great show. Before we get to
Speaker 1: the next pick here that we have. Don't forget everybody.
Speaker 1: When you download that Betting pros app, make sure you
Speaker 1: go to the community tab and make sure you join
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Speaker 1: prize winner is gonna get a Jackson Smith and Jigba Jersey.
Speaker 1: All you have to do is make five picks a week.
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Speaker 1: Andrew Ericksson, let's go back to you for another week.
Speaker 1: Two pick.
Speaker 3: What do you have for the people going with the
Speaker 3: Ravens minus four playing in Pittsburgh. I understand the line
Speaker 3: because they got to give respect to the Steelers defense
Speaker 3: Mike Tomlin, but come on, like the offense for the
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh Steelers is so bad it is horrible up and down.
Speaker 3: You have Kenny Pickett, who's coming off an injury, who's
Speaker 3: going to play in this game. But he's not the
Speaker 3: only guy that's hurt. Pat Fayrenmouth is not going to play.
Speaker 3: They're starting left tackle Dan Moore is not gonna play.
Speaker 3: Their starting guard James Daniels is also dealing with an injury,
Speaker 3: so they're gonna have their rookie left tackles start this game.
Speaker 3: And I'm having a banged up quarterback already. I get
Speaker 3: that the defense for Baltimore's not elite because the've also
Speaker 3: been banged up, but they've also played very well despite
Speaker 3: missing a lot of their ty guys. The Ravens take
Speaker 3: care of business against bad offenses and incompetent play callers.
Speaker 3: That's what the Steelers are bringing to the table here
Speaker 3: in this game. So again, this isn't a matchup where
Speaker 3: the Ravens are gonna overlook the Steelers. They know the
Speaker 3: Steelers are one of their biggest rivals, but they're clearly
Speaker 3: the better team here, and the fact that it's only
Speaker 3: four points, I'm taking it like I just think Baltimore
Speaker 3: is hands down the better team. They beat Pittsburgh in
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh last year with Tyler Huntley by a field goal.
Speaker 3: I know Trubisky started that game, but the Steelers offense,
Speaker 3: I don't know how they're gonna score, Like unless TJ.
Speaker 3: Watt gets a pick like forces a strip fumble that
Speaker 3: is a scoring for a touchdown, Like, how do the
Speaker 3: Steelers actually score points? I think the Ravens know that.
Speaker 3: The Ravens know that they can be conservative. They can
Speaker 3: run the football with Gus Edwards against one of the
Speaker 3: worst run defenses in the NFL and play keep away
Speaker 3: and just win the game. So I like the Ravens here.
Speaker 3: I think they get to win just because the Steelers
Speaker 3: are the walking wounded right now. Now we're getting close to Halloween.
Speaker 3: But yeah, the Steelers are just not in a good place.
Speaker 1: I just noticed on x that Matt canada Is Burner
Speaker 1: account just followed you. So it's going to be a
Speaker 1: busy weekend for you, just telling you.
Speaker 3: Well, this is going to be the last game at Canon.
Speaker 3: Maybe coaching for the Pittsburgh has.
Speaker 1: Got a lot more time to tweet or x or
Speaker 1: whatever the hell he's gonna do. But I agree with you,
Speaker 1: it's been bad. You know, we always like to give
Speaker 1: the Tomlin team's respect, and we always like to give
Speaker 1: them some sort of preference or treatment because they're always ppared,
Speaker 1: they're aways well coached, and we did that in week
Speaker 1: one and we got our doors blown off on it
Speaker 1: because of how good the forty Niners were and how
Speaker 1: ill prepared the Pittsburgh Steelers were. And it hasn't gotten better,
Speaker 1: it really hasn't. It's just been one thing after another.
Speaker 1: So Mike Tomlin said there's changes coming. We'll see. Maybe
Speaker 1: there'll be some changes after this. Once a, Maantha Pravidio,
Speaker 1: let's change up the conversation. Give me another pick here
Speaker 1: that you like for Week five in the NFL.
Speaker 2: Sure, so I like the Lions team total over twenty
Speaker 2: seven and a half points, which is minus one fifteen.
Speaker 2: You can get that at a few places, but I
Speaker 2: got to get bet three six five. There are two
Speaker 2: many main reasons that I like this bet. First, I
Speaker 2: think that last week was a little bit of an
Speaker 2: aberration for the Panthers. I think their defense definitely outperformed expectations,
Speaker 2: and Kirk Cousins and the Vikings did what they usually do,
Speaker 2: like played down to their competition, like they the only
Speaker 2: reason that they kept it that close for that long.
Speaker 2: Was really that and I you know, I actually lie
Speaker 2: bet the Vikings plus two and a half, and obviously,
Speaker 2: like I had to sweat that for all of like
Speaker 2: one millisecond because I just knew the Panthers were going
Speaker 2: to find a way to lose that game. But the
Speaker 2: second reason I like this is that the Lions are
Speaker 2: at home and Jaredduff is a crazy home road split.
Speaker 2: I don't know if he just likes to like sleep
Speaker 2: in his own bed, or maybe he has trouble throwing
Speaker 2: outside of Ford Field, but whatever it is, since the
Speaker 2: beginning of the twenty two season, he's averaging near like
Speaker 2: forty more passing yards per game. In eleven home games,
Speaker 2: he has twenty seven touchdowns to five interceptions. Ten road
Speaker 2: games eight touchdowns to five interceptions, So huge, huge divergence there.
Speaker 2: You know, there's minor concerned that if the Lions jump
Speaker 2: out to a really early lead, they could take their
Speaker 2: foot off the gas, but that isn't something that we
Speaker 2: saw against the Packers for sure. So what I do
Speaker 2: think is that they will jump out to it early,
Speaker 2: probably lean on that rush game, which you know will
Speaker 2: probably hurt a lot of fantasy managers feelings because Steven
Speaker 2: Montgomery will probably end up with like thirty carries. But
Speaker 2: you know, anyway, I just think that there's no way
Speaker 2: that they don't tack on at least thirty points on
Speaker 2: this Panthers team.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think a highly likely scenario, that's for sure.
Speaker 1: You know when Also, everybody is talking about live betting.
Speaker 1: I was talking about it on Monday, made a lot
Speaker 1: of money, the same concept as like the Denver Broncos
Speaker 1: all of a sudden went to plus five hundred. So
Speaker 1: I was like, yeah, well, I'm gonna bet them because
Speaker 1: Chicago can't get out of their own way. They can't
Speaker 1: possibly win this game. And they didn't let me down.
Speaker 1: I did sweat that one though, that one I was sweating.
Speaker 1: Of course, they didn't kick a field goal, so I'm okay.
Speaker 1: But I want to let everybody know. Speaking of love betting.
Speaker 1: Next Thursday on our discord at fantasypros dot com slash chat,
Speaker 1: you can go join our Betting Pros channel Derek Brown
Speaker 1: and I during Thursday night football, right around a halftime,
Speaker 1: We're going to jump in there talk about some live
Speaker 1: betting potential things. Take your questions too, So if you haven't,
Speaker 1: it's free to join fancaybors dot com slash chat, go
Speaker 1: take a look at that again, join the Betting Pros
Speaker 1: channel and when you do that Thursday night next week,
Speaker 1: we're gonna be jumping in there and talking to you
Speaker 1: guys about making me making some money while the game
Speaker 1: is going on live. Andrew Erickson, we got Thursday night
Speaker 1: football tonight. Maybe not an excited game. Again, the aforementioned
Speaker 1: Bears are playing, so Scott bog and I will be
Speaker 1: taking everybody through that at five pm Eastern live on
Speaker 1: the channel, as we do every single Thursday. But before
Speaker 1: we get to that, let's get to another one of
Speaker 1: your picks here.
Speaker 3: What do you have going with the Falcons minus one
Speaker 3: and a half over at MGM minus one fifteen? Look,
Speaker 3: the two quarterbacks in this game could not be on
Speaker 3: different ends of the spectrum, Like it couldn't be wider.
Speaker 1: Everyone loves c J.
Speaker 3: Stroud. Everybody hates Desmon Ridder. Like if you've listened to
Speaker 3: any or any content this week, that's been the highlight.
Speaker 3: Like the headline Ridder is horrible. Stroud is Peyton manning
Speaker 3: at the Texans. They blow away with the draft. But anyway,
Speaker 3: looking at Ritter, what he does at home is very
Speaker 3: differentrom what he does on the road.
Speaker 1: Dosnety.
Speaker 3: Ritter is undefeated at home at the professional level, at
Speaker 3: the college level, never lost a football game at home. Now,
Speaker 3: the Falcons their defense underrated, not enough people are talking
Speaker 3: about because the offense being bad is kind of what's
Speaker 3: highlighting this team. But all the defensive adjustments they made
Speaker 3: during the offseason, adding guys like Klays Campbell, bringing in
Speaker 3: guy like Jesse Bates like has shown up on the field.
Speaker 3: So they're one of the better defenses in terms of
Speaker 3: generating pressure, in terms of not allowing yards after the catch.
Speaker 3: So I think that this is a spot where I'm
Speaker 3: kind of buying the dip on the Atlanta Falcons, Like
Speaker 3: we back them a lot in the offseason, and when
Speaker 3: they played home, twenty four and a half points per
Speaker 3: game at home this year on the road six and
Speaker 3: a half points per game. So it's the stark difference
Speaker 3: between Desmond Ritter because when he plays at home, he's
Speaker 3: not pressured. Like when he's not under pressure, he can
Speaker 3: actually operate as a normal functioning quarterback, which I expect
Speaker 3: him to do here against the Houston Texans, who don't
Speaker 3: have a pass rush as good as Jacksonville or as Detroit,
Speaker 3: so I think that he's going to be able to
Speaker 3: operate from the pocket here. I mean, look at the
Speaker 3: coaching matchup between Arthur Smith and Demico Ryans. We saw
Speaker 3: this last year Smith. Arthur Smith had the edge. The
Speaker 3: Atlanta Falcons beat the forty nine Ers defense twenty eight
Speaker 3: to fourteen. Marcus Mariota completed all but one of his passes.
Speaker 3: So I think there's a coaching edge here with Arthur
Speaker 3: Smith's offense versus this Tamiko Ryan's defense that no one's
Speaker 3: going to talk about. So I like the Falcons a
Speaker 3: lot here because everyone loves Houston, and I'm.
Speaker 1: Surprised that it I do. I'm one of the other ones.
Speaker 1: It made a pick. This is I totally admit that
Speaker 1: that's a Conurian pick. Though I like where your head's
Speaker 1: at because it does feel like, you know, whenever the
Speaker 1: public goes one way, you should go the other way.
Speaker 1: And Ericson's bring up a really good point and this
Speaker 1: is how you make money. My problem is, I feel
Speaker 1: like Desmond Ritter is, you know, look, I know you
Speaker 1: brought up road numbers and the whole numbers, but also
Speaker 1: the road numbers. It's also a London game in there too.
Speaker 1: That's a weird travel It's not the normal sort of
Speaker 1: situation there. I just I struggle with the fact that
Speaker 1: he can't seem to remember that Kyle Pitts is on
Speaker 1: his team, and he can't seem to remember some of
Speaker 1: the important things. And I like, I I've a desmonder apologist.
Speaker 1: But at the same time, I'm looking at the vibe
Speaker 1: of the Houston Texans right now, and I think they've
Speaker 1: got something going on here and it would be very
Speaker 1: nfl ask for them to beat the Steelers, big triumphant victory,
Speaker 1: go on the road, and then louse to Falcons. You're
Speaker 1: one hundred percent right, so I can't wait to see
Speaker 1: the outcome of this game. You and I will be
Speaker 1: texting Sunday while you're at the wedding this weekend. So
Speaker 1: let's get to the next one here on our list. Here,
Speaker 1: We've got a bunch of good ones here. Let's go
Speaker 1: back to you, Samantha. What do you have here for
Speaker 1: Week five?
Speaker 2: Sure, I'm gonna piggyback off of what Andrew said, but
Speaker 2: kind of go in the opposite direction. I'm a little
Speaker 2: bit more right on Joe's seniors.
Speaker 1: So uh, obviously, finally someone likes me best.
Speaker 2: So I've obviously been super high up on CJ. Strod.
Speaker 2: It goes without saying, and you know, as a sad
Speaker 2: Panthers fan like you, the sad Poplo gift just watching
Speaker 2: him the awesome. Well, Bryce Young is been struggling. I know,
Speaker 2: four weeks of the season. It's fine, it'll be okay,
Speaker 2: everything's fine, everything's fine, Everything's fine.
Speaker 1: That's what you relyd me of right now.
Speaker 2: But a cool nugget that my friend Brandon Anderson from
Speaker 2: Action Network told me earlier today is in the ten
Speaker 2: teams that a team ten times that a team has
Speaker 2: played after playing in London without a bye, the opponent
Speaker 2: of that team has gone over the team total versus
Speaker 2: a tired defense seven out of ten times, and has
Speaker 2: either tied or led going into the fourth quarter in
Speaker 2: all ten games. Small sample size, yes, but we're definitely hurt.
Speaker 2: We've definitely heard teams complain about not having that bye
Speaker 2: week after the international travel, which totally makes sense, and
Speaker 2: it's possible that it just impacts the defenses a little
Speaker 2: bit worse. So I think that there there could be
Speaker 2: something to that with the Falcons coming off of that
Speaker 2: London game, and I've just been, like I said, really
Speaker 2: impressed with it with the CJ. Stroud the Texans and
Speaker 2: what he's doing with what I'm going to say is
Speaker 2: pretty much a B team, which I also think might
Speaker 2: even be a compliment because they've got like five offensive
Speaker 2: linemen injured and his best receivers are Nico Collins in
Speaker 2: Tank Dell and great pickup by the way, if you
Speaker 2: were able to get him in fantasy. I do like
Speaker 2: the Texans to potentially win out right or cover the spread,
Speaker 2: But the only reason I am going with the team
Speaker 2: total is because of what you mentioned with the home
Speaker 2: road split for Desmond Ritter. I just don't know exactly
Speaker 2: what to think of this Falcons team, so that's kind
Speaker 2: of when I go in that team total direction. So
Speaker 2: at least I know what I think I'm getting out
Speaker 2: of one team. I'm not always sure what I'm going
Speaker 2: to get out of the Falcons, but I feel pretty
Speaker 2: confident that I'm going to get a good game out
Speaker 2: of Cjstrat and the Texans.
Speaker 1: So'm outside the box thinking I like it, let's go
Speaker 1: all right, let's get to the next one and Andrew
Speaker 1: Erickson's And remember, if you're trying to stay on top
Speaker 1: of everything here, make sure you're using the Betting Pros app.
Speaker 1: Make sure you're setting those game notifications to you with
Speaker 1: the line alerts all from VP. So if you have
Speaker 1: the VP line alerts that app, you can set your
Speaker 1: certain game notifications so you know of the line movement
Speaker 1: between now and Sunday during kickoff. It really helps you
Speaker 1: lock in the best bets. So make sure you're utilizing
Speaker 1: all all of the tools here at Betting Pros so
Speaker 1: you can be success because we're giving them to you
Speaker 1: and they're right there. You can track all your bets.
Speaker 1: You can use the prop bet cheat sheet, which you're
Speaker 1: going to talk about a lot tomorrow too. That was
Speaker 1: a fantastic tool and it's all there for you, So
Speaker 1: don't be intimidated by this. This is fun. Wagering on
Speaker 1: the NFL games is fun. And even if you can't wager,
Speaker 1: you can still do the NFL Contest and just make
Speaker 1: picks and still be a part of something every week.
Speaker 1: So go join the community. It's a good time, all right,
Speaker 1: Andrew ercton, you're a good time. Give me something's gonna
Speaker 1: be a good time for my wallet this week.
Speaker 3: Well, you can get this one right before in the morning, Joe,
Speaker 3: before you go on the live stream. Bill's Jags under
Speaker 3: forty and a half or forty nine over at bet
Speaker 3: MGM minus one ten. So this is the London game,
Speaker 3: the second London game in a row that the Jags
Speaker 3: are hosting. I don't think there's gonna be a lot
Speaker 3: of points scored in this game, to be honest. I
Speaker 3: like the underplay here. You look at the Bills defense,
Speaker 3: it's been great fourth until expected points add on defense
Speaker 3: behind Baltimore, Dallas, and Cleveland. So they're playing like a
Speaker 3: top five defense. And jaguarres have struggled on offense, like
Speaker 3: we really have not seen them hit their stride like
Speaker 3: they did last year's still trying to figure things out.
Speaker 3: They're shuffling across their offensive. One they're getting Cam Robinson
Speaker 3: back this week, but still we haven't seen Trevor Lawrence
Speaker 3: really click with his receivers since week one. I look
Speaker 3: at the Bills side of the things, I think Jacksonville
Speaker 3: can limit their ground game top ten and fewest rushing
Speaker 3: yards per game eighth and expected points added in the
Speaker 3: run defense. So I think that both defenses have like
Speaker 3: the personnel to slow down the respective offenses. And I
Speaker 3: think that you have Jacksonville playing their second game in
Speaker 3: London at you know, at home, quote unquote, but they're
Speaker 3: adjusted to the time, like they're adjusted to the times.
Speaker 3: But Bills just got to London, so we'll see how
Speaker 3: they accliment their bodies to the time difference. And when
Speaker 3: you look at what the Bills have done on the
Speaker 3: road this year, they're two and oh toward the ender
Speaker 3: on the road this season. With the Jaguars they're two
Speaker 3: and one towards the under at home, including last week
Speaker 3: in London. So I think that the London games you
Speaker 3: get all excited about, and they're usually not these high
Speaker 3: scoring affairs, just like for me, it's usually like much
Speaker 3: closer games like we saw it last week, where you
Speaker 3: know that game could have been lower scoring if it
Speaker 3: wasn't for a pick six thrown by Desmond Ritter. So
Speaker 3: I'm taking me under your especially with at the totals
Speaker 3: at forty nine, Like the Jaguars haven't played a shootout
Speaker 3: at all this year, so with their often struggling I
Speaker 3: don't think the Bills offense is going to do enough
Speaker 3: necessarily to put this game over the total. I think
Speaker 3: it goes over like forty five, but goes in under
Speaker 3: forty nine.
Speaker 1: I bet this one already is this was a really
Speaker 1: big week for me for the early betting again. Follow
Speaker 1: me at bettingpros dot com slash Joe. You can follow
Speaker 1: ericson the same thing betting Pros dot com slash ericson.
Speaker 1: I bet this one at six on the Jag side
Speaker 1: for the same reason. I feel like it's a letdown
Speaker 1: for the Buffalo Bills a little bit here. The big
Speaker 1: game against Miami last week, big statement game. Then they
Speaker 1: also lost for Davius White, that's another big piece. Then
Speaker 1: you got a travel to London. I just feel like
Speaker 1: this is the classic letdown.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: I don't know if the Jags can win outright, that
Speaker 1: I'm not into. But I'm not alone because this numbers
Speaker 1: already been bet down because it was at six two
Speaker 1: days ago. Now it's at five in most spots. It's
Speaker 1: looking at betting Pros, So right now, the best number
Speaker 1: you can get, you know, is the five and a half.
Speaker 1: You can get that in a couple spots like on
Speaker 1: Fandel and Caesars have there at MGM's there, but also
Speaker 1: DK's already at fives, he's already starting to move in
Speaker 1: the opposite direction. Are really interesting, So good stuff there,
Speaker 1: like that a lot. All right, Samantha, let's go back
Speaker 1: to you. One more for the people here week five.
Speaker 1: What do you have sure?
Speaker 2: I'm going with one more team total, and that's under
Speaker 2: sixteen and a half for these Steelers, So kind of
Speaker 2: piggybacking off of what Andrews said. Obviously, we think that
Speaker 2: the Ravens are the better team here, and it's not
Speaker 2: particularly close, but the so the spread would seem to
Speaker 2: make obvious sense. But I'm not as bullish because two
Speaker 2: main reasons. These teams tend to play each other pretty close.
Speaker 2: Dating back to twenty twenty, the last six meetings have
Speaker 2: been determined by the following margins three, two, three, one, five,
Speaker 2: and four. I know there have been a lot of
Speaker 2: backups been playing in those games, but the underdog has
Speaker 2: actually covered eleven straight meetings between these two teams, So
Speaker 2: something to meant to keep in mind that they, like
Speaker 2: I said, that they keep them pretty close. Lamar Jackson
Speaker 2: has struggled in the past, so, like I said, I'm
Speaker 2: a little bit more confident about the Steelers not doing
Speaker 2: anything instead of the raven side of things. In terms
Speaker 2: of line movement, this is actually shifted down about four points,
Speaker 2: which was all on the Steelers side. So definitely, people
Speaker 2: are very pessimistic about the Steelers, which makes sense with
Speaker 2: all the injuries. Deontay Johnson heard his hamstring won't be
Speaker 2: back till week six or so. Pat Fryermuth will miss
Speaker 2: multiple weeks. Kenny Pickett says he will be good to go,
Speaker 2: but I mean, I don't know if that what that means.
Speaker 2: If he can't play, it's Mitch Trubisky. But it's not
Speaker 2: like Kenny Pickett is out there. Yes, we know what
Speaker 2: that means. Three interceptions last year's from him in this game,
Speaker 2: so you know that that's pretty much what I would
Speaker 2: expect from from Mitch trubisk. Even if Pickett plays, it's
Speaker 2: really not like he's he's out there blowing the doors
Speaker 2: off of defenses. So I think he's going to struggle
Speaker 2: against the Baltimore pass rush that rings top four in
Speaker 2: sacks per game, and it's just overall they haven't been
Speaker 2: able to establish the run at all. Nahi Harris has
Speaker 2: just been absolutely terrible fantasy. And you know it's good
Speaker 2: for my betting because I've been betting his under every
Speaker 2: single week.
Speaker 1: So well, you've been winning a lot of money and
Speaker 1: you're taking us all out after the show for dinner.
Speaker 1: But sure, that's that's definitely gonna happen.
Speaker 2: But yeah, something like, yeah, I expect this to be
Speaker 2: something like seventeen to thirteen. I don't think it'll be
Speaker 2: a huge game on either side.
Speaker 1: Sounds very AFC North kind of. Yeah, that sounds about right.
Speaker 1: I guess they only grace for Patriots fans too, that like,
Speaker 1: Patriots are bad, but so of the Steelers. So I
Speaker 1: guess you're just gonna okay, nobody's going ahead of anybody
Speaker 1: in the ring race right now. Andrew Erickson, one more
Speaker 1: before you get out of here, give us your last
Speaker 1: pick here four week five.
Speaker 3: I'm going with the Colts money line here, which I
Speaker 3: think now based on where the odds have shifted. You know,
Speaker 3: when I first put this in, they were favorites, and
Speaker 3: now it looks like they're two and a half point docs.
Speaker 3: So I should able to get a higher payout on
Speaker 3: the Colts money line, you know, opening us favorites and now.
Speaker 1: On FanDuel Erickson right now, just looking at it on
Speaker 1: right now.
Speaker 3: Plus I love it because I hate this spot for
Speaker 3: the Titans because the Titans are one of these teams
Speaker 3: where they're so hot cold. It's like one week they're this,
Speaker 3: they just dominate. The next week they don't know to
Speaker 3: look like they know how to play football. So it's
Speaker 3: like you got a zig while the others are zagging
Speaker 3: with the Titans. So people are back in the Titans.
Speaker 3: You got to back the other team. So the thing
Speaker 3: with me is looking at how they play on the
Speaker 3: road first, how they played home, and it specifically comes
Speaker 3: down to their offensive line. Like their offensive line is bad,
Speaker 3: there's no debate about that. And what happens is offensive
Speaker 3: lines don't travel well like bad old lines don't play
Speaker 3: good on the road. And we've seen that in the
Speaker 3: air two road games where they've averaged nine points per game,
Speaker 3: first twenty seven points per game playing at home. What's
Speaker 3: the strength of the Colts defense, their defensive front, their
Speaker 3: defensive line that matches up with Hennessey's ability to run
Speaker 3: the football. And when you look at the advantage on
Speaker 3: the Colt side of things from an offensive perspective. Anthony
Speaker 3: Richardson is breaking fantasy football and the guy looks like
Speaker 3: Cam Newton out there. So I'm taking Anthony Richardson and
Speaker 3: Shane Styke in this this duo. I love this pairing.
Speaker 3: They're gonna to take advantage of this horrible Titan secondary
Speaker 3: that you know last or this is what they've done
Speaker 3: this year fifth worst than justin net Yard's a lot
Speaker 3: to attempt and completion percentage faced. So Richardson got his
Speaker 3: team back in the game by completing eleven passes last
Speaker 3: week against the Rams forst overtime. They didn't win that game,
Speaker 3: but they came close, and they were down big in
Speaker 3: that game and they still rallied. So I like what
Speaker 3: I'm seeing from this Colts team. You look at the
Speaker 3: last time we saw Shane Steiken play this Titan secondary
Speaker 3: last year with the Eagles. Again the different personnel, but
Speaker 3: he threw for four hundred passing yards Jalen Hurts in
Speaker 3: that game. Shane Stikeen knows how to beat this Titans defense.
Speaker 3: We saw it last year. I think he's gonna do
Speaker 3: the exact same thing with Anthony Richardson. So Colts money line,
Speaker 3: let's book it.
Speaker 1: I like Styking a lot as a coach. I think
Speaker 1: he's gonna do very well. I think he and Richardson
Speaker 1: are gonna have a very productive time together. So Erickson
Speaker 1: likes the Colts on the money line, which, by the way,
Speaker 1: now you can get a plus one eighteen over on FANDLE.
Speaker 1: That's the best line you can get for them, So
Speaker 1: jump on that, bad boy. Also, he is in on
Speaker 1: the Jags Bills under at forty nine, the Falcons minus
Speaker 1: one and a half, the Ravens minus four, and the
Speaker 1: Patriots and Saints under. Samantha is on the Cardinals on
Speaker 1: the money line, the Patriots and Saints under, the Lions
Speaker 1: team total of twenty seven and a half, the Texans
Speaker 1: on this the over, excuse me, the over, and the
Speaker 1: Texans twenty and a half, and the under sorry Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: Stealers under sixteen and a half. Gross. That's a very
Speaker 1: low number, and I'm still under it, and I don't
Speaker 1: think it's wrong. I don't think it's wrong. Samantha Pravidi
Speaker 1: always so great to talk to you, so happy you
Speaker 1: could make the time for us on the show today.
Speaker 1: Go follow her at Samantha nfl Over on X. Don't forget.
Speaker 1: Drop a comment below, what are your picks for the week.
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Speaker 1: Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks for
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