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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the Podcast. I am Chad Millman

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Speaker 1: from the Action Network. In just a second, I will

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Speaker 1: be joined by Bob Scucci. But later on in the show,

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Speaker 1: Professional Better Simon Hunter is going to come on and

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Speaker 1: we're gonna go over uh our five picks for the

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Speaker 1: Westgates Super Contest. Darren is not joining because he's on

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Speaker 1: the hunt of Mattress Mac, the guy bedding twenty million

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Speaker 1: dollars on the World Series. That is all coming down

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Speaker 1: to tonight's game. It's Wednesday when I'm recording this. Tonight

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Speaker 1: they're playing Game seven. Mattress Mac has bet twenty million

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Speaker 1: dollars and Darren has been with him every step of

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Speaker 1: the way, including today flying on a private jet to

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Speaker 1: Mississippi so Mattress Mac can get even more money down. Also,

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Speaker 1: Breeders Cup coming up this weekend. We like to cover

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Speaker 1: the big races. We like to cover the big events,

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Speaker 1: even if they're happening during football season. We have a

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Speaker 1: special guest coming on to talk about Breeders Cup. But

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Speaker 1: first from Boyd Gaming representing all the books they represent

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Speaker 1: in the state of Nevada and throughout the country. Mr

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Speaker 1: Bob Scucci, what is going on, buddy, how the usual?

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Speaker 1: I mean, we got everything going on all the same time.

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Speaker 1: It's a great time of year. Got Breeders Cup this

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Speaker 1: this weekend, and football, basketball, baseball, hockey, you name it,

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Speaker 1: we got it. Hey, Let's let me ask you a question,

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Speaker 1: because we got someone coming on for the Breeders Cup

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Speaker 1: in a little bit. And what I want to know

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Speaker 1: is in the mid a football season, like Breeders Cup,

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Speaker 1: how much attention is that going to get? Quite a bit?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how much crossover there is,

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Speaker 1: just you know from the football fans that that you know,

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Speaker 1: will suddenly like horse racing. But especially in Nevada where

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Speaker 1: the race books are right in the sports books themselves, Um,

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Speaker 1: you can't help but be around it. And if you

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Speaker 1: see race after race, I mean even the casual sports

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Speaker 1: better is going to want to put a few dollars

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Speaker 1: on one of these horse races, knowing that the biggest

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Speaker 1: races in the world. You know what's big, what's big

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Speaker 1: betting on the NFL? You know what's you know what's

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Speaker 1: really painful? What's that betting on the NFL. Yeah, it's tough,

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Speaker 1: man Like, it's it's a really hard thing, you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm betting every game. You can follow along in the

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Speaker 1: Action Network gap to fifty six or bust. I am

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Speaker 1: betting every single game you can bet in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: Um My record this year is what is my overall

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Speaker 1: record right now? NFL? I am and fifty three on

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Speaker 1: the year. That is fifty six point two. You can

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Speaker 1: follow that in the Action Network app to or bust.

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Speaker 1: But last weekend was rough man. I went six and eight,

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Speaker 1: and I needed miracles from the Packers on Sunday night

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Speaker 1: and the officials on Monday night so the Dolphins would cover.

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Speaker 1: Like it is just gut wrenching, like to see the

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Speaker 1: refs in that Bucks game blow the game, to see

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Speaker 1: the refs in that Browns game blow the game with

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Speaker 1: just bad, bad calls, isn't me? Do you feel like

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Speaker 1: refs are having a bigger impact on betting this year

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Speaker 1: than normally? I think I'm biased because I've always felt

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Speaker 1: that refs had a significant influence in the game, And

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Speaker 1: maybe that just comes from watching thirty thousand games over

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Speaker 1: a career, but I've always felt that they've had a

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Speaker 1: huge impact. So no different than normal. This was the

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Speaker 1: first weekend like where normally you get a sense it's Stucky,

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Speaker 1: one of the guys at the Action Network and they

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Speaker 1: host a great podcast, the Action Network podcast Go Downloaded,

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Speaker 1: and Stucky and Colin Wilson who hosts the Colleges podcast. Uh.

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Speaker 1: Stucky will always grate his games based on sort of

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Speaker 1: the final score, but also luck and like did the

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Speaker 1: game go as he planned? Did the game not go

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Speaker 1: as he planned? What did you miss? And what happened

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Speaker 1: just because of luck wins or losses. And I feel

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Speaker 1: like this was the first weekend where I had bad luck.

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Speaker 1: It was a first and that's not bad. Like eight

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Speaker 1: weeks in to have bad luck where I really felt like, oh,

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Speaker 1: those were some bad beats. Like I had not had

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Speaker 1: a weekend like that yet, and now more than ever,

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Speaker 1: it's making me sad. Well, the right side to the

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Speaker 1: winning side, So you gotta you gotta take luck into account.

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Speaker 1: A wise man once said, the right side is the

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Speaker 1: winning side. Scooch. Thursday night, we have an undefeated San

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Speaker 1: Francisco forty Niners team traveling in Arizona. A surprising three

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Speaker 1: four and one. UM did not cover for people last

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Speaker 1: week against the Saints is ten point dogs, which I

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Speaker 1: think people thought they would UM again they are ten

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Speaker 1: point dogs at home, this time against the San Francisco

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Speaker 1: forty Niners, who are juggernauts, like absolute juggernauts. I thought

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Speaker 1: I thought they might lose to the Panthers this past weekend.

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Speaker 1: I was so all over the Panthers in that side,

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Speaker 1: and yet and yet, Scooch, they hung up fifty freaking points,

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Speaker 1: a fifty burger on that team. Yeah. We keep talking

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Speaker 1: about how we have to keep adjusting lines on the

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Speaker 1: forty Niners, and I was at the point last week

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Speaker 1: where I said, I just can't adjust too many hire.

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Speaker 1: You know, I had them ranked, you know, just behind

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Speaker 1: the Saints, and and now I think we just have

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Speaker 1: to put them just kind of even with the Saints.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if they play the games, to pick them

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Speaker 1: now and just really just uh, whoever's got the home

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Speaker 1: field is going to be the favorite in that matchup.

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Speaker 1: But I mean this line, prior to last Sunday, this

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Speaker 1: line would have been seven, seven and a half. And

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Speaker 1: even though I keep saying I'm not going to adjust

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Speaker 1: the Niners, I didn't. We hung eight on this game

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Speaker 1: and we just let the money drive it up to ten.

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Speaker 1: I think it's another situation where the values on the Cardinals.

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Speaker 1: As much as you hate to say that, I mean,

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals played the Saints last week and that line

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Speaker 1: closed twelve and a half. So, uh, it's almost saying

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Speaker 1: that the Niners are laying as much on the road

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Speaker 1: against the Cardinals as the Saints laid at home against

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals. So I mean that just shows how inflated

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Speaker 1: this line has become. But you know, you look at

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Speaker 1: the ticket count and it's like twenty to one, one

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Speaker 1: of the biggest I've seen all year in terms of

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Speaker 1: just being lopsided. This will be one of the biggest

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Speaker 1: decisions we've had in a long time. I hate that

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to hold my nose in bet the Cardinals. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: no matter what we do, the car is, like you said,

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Speaker 1: just juggernauts, just weekend week out. Why not just keep

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Speaker 1: betting on them that you're you're the casual fan. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, there's no reason not to to let off

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Speaker 1: of it now. I mean, they've been covering for you

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Speaker 1: every week except I think maybe one possibly to opt

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Speaker 1: to go back. But they just cover every week and convincingly.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you're never you're never even sweating in these games.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, We're gonna be huge Cardinal fans. So frustrating.

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Speaker 1: It's so so frustrating. You know who else is frustrating

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Speaker 1: The Houston Texans who are playing the Jags in London

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Speaker 1: this weekend. It's a nine thirty game, which we love,

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Speaker 1: like nothing better than a nine thirty game. I hate

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Speaker 1: these London games where they're starting at one o'clock. Give

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Speaker 1: me football. Like when I'm waking up and I'm doing

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Speaker 1: laundry and there's a pile of it on my bed

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Speaker 1: and I'm folding it and no one's bothering me, and

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Speaker 1: I have to say to stay my wife. I'm like,

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Speaker 1: I'm working, okay, Yeah, I'm gonna be working from nine

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Speaker 1: thirty am until midnight watching football. There will be no break,

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Speaker 1: maybe from like seven thirty to eight thirty, you know,

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Speaker 1: depending on if the late games go really late. Maybe

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Speaker 1: I'll be available. Other than that, I'm watching the Texans

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Speaker 1: and the Jags. I'm seeing the Texans is one a

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Speaker 1: half point favorites. I don't know about that one. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so I guess on the East coast, nine thirties decent start.

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Speaker 1: But on the West Coast at six thirty am and

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Speaker 1: nobody wants to get up that early on Sunday morning.

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Speaker 1: So typically we don't see a whole lot of action

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Speaker 1: on the six thirty games here on the West Coast

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Speaker 1: and in Las Vegas. There's some people that have interested

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Speaker 1: if it's a big matchup, they'll bet on it the

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Speaker 1: night before. But for some reason, the the A S

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Speaker 1: the South just doesn't draw a lot of interest. Even

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Speaker 1: with it's kind of like all these teams there's there's

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Speaker 1: maybe three three and a half points that separate them

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Speaker 1: in power ranking, so it's like one A, one B,

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Speaker 1: one C and one D like they're all entries and

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Speaker 1: anytime they play each other, that's only a couple of points.

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Speaker 1: Uh in terms of the point spread is only a

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Speaker 1: couple of points different, So very competitive game ticket count

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Speaker 1: slightly heavier on the Texans. Now without J. J. Watt,

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Speaker 1: I mean that's going to affect just kind of the

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Speaker 1: recreational casual fan who you know that that's one name

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Speaker 1: they recognize and they'll either they'll either bet the Jags

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Speaker 1: or kind of lay off the game. It was not

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Speaker 1: that long. J. J. Watt was worth a point or

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Speaker 1: a point in a half against the points bread and

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Speaker 1: he was the only defensive player who commanded that kind

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Speaker 1: of respect and carried that kind of weight. Yeah, it

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Speaker 1: wasn't long ago. And but you know the problem he

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Speaker 1: has been dealing with so many injuries. It's almost like

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Speaker 1: the teams have to play without them as much as

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Speaker 1: they as they played with them. So, um, you see

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Speaker 1: the value shrink over time, and that's usually typical with

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Speaker 1: any player that's that's kind of injury plagued. I don't

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Speaker 1: like that game, but I feel like I'm going to

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Speaker 1: have to bet the Texans in it. We we've been

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Speaker 1: kind of had a pretty good beat on this Texas

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Speaker 1: team in terms of kind of shading them when we

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Speaker 1: feel it's a bad spot for them and they come

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Speaker 1: up short, and then um being kind of heavy on

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Speaker 1: them when when when they play well. So I think

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Speaker 1: this is a good line for us. I don't think

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Speaker 1: we'll see much movement in this one. But uh, maybe

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Speaker 1: I haven't been given the Jacks enough credit that they

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Speaker 1: have surprised me in a few games. You and I

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Speaker 1: joke all the time that like those a f C

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Speaker 1: South teams and those teams that are generally in the

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Speaker 1: Southeast where college football means everything, are the most sort

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Speaker 1: of nondescript, lacking in cultural cash, a, lacking in fan base,

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Speaker 1: lacking in passion, lacking any anything that is sort of identifiable.

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Speaker 1: Right like, it's it's the helmet theory, the Titans, the Jaguars,

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Speaker 1: the Texans. For the life of me, right now, I

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Speaker 1: cannot tell you the fourth team in the a f

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Speaker 1: C South Like, Honest to god, if I like, I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't need to look it up right now, I have

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Speaker 1: no idea who it is, all right, the Colts. The

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Speaker 1: only team that has any sort of history or any

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Speaker 1: weight or sway with the public is the team that

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Speaker 1: I can remember. That's how little this conference, this division matters.

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Speaker 1: It really doesn't. They need more separation. It does seem

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Speaker 1: like all their uniforms are so nondiscribed. They all need

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Speaker 1: distinguishable They need to get better uniforms. I agree with

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Speaker 1: you that they all feel like they are the only

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Speaker 1: one that that has any sort of like, that feels

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Speaker 1: like it has gravitas, like all the other ones feel

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Speaker 1: like those fake uniforms you get in movies and commercials

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Speaker 1: when people can't use real NFL I P So they

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Speaker 1: they make up what uniforms look like. That's what all

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Speaker 1: these other uniforms look like yeah, like like what al

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Speaker 1: Pacino in any given Sunday and they're like, I don't

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Speaker 1: all the Sharks or something. That's exactly what it is.

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Speaker 1: Like they they're all it's like they're all wearing like

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Speaker 1: you know, XFL uniforms or any or North Dallas forty

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Speaker 1: or any given Sunday or you know, commercials for Samsung

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Speaker 1: TVs exactly exactly. I'm with you there. Do you know

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Speaker 1: what else I hate other than the a f C

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Speaker 1: South What Chicago Bears? Why the fuck does Matt Nagy?

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Speaker 1: Why does he think that kicking a forty year old

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Speaker 1: yard field goal is good enough? He did the same

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Speaker 1: thing in the playoffs last year, like he will just

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Speaker 1: decide you get you know, hey, we're within fifty five

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Speaker 1: yards of a field goal, let's just kneel, like, let's

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Speaker 1: give up getting any more yardage. He did the same

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Speaker 1: thing last year in the playoffs the Bears lost. He

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Speaker 1: did the same thing this past week against the Chargers,

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Speaker 1: an offense that is so dreadful it's painful, painful. Of

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Speaker 1: Buddy Mine was at the game. He lives in California

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Speaker 1: and it's a second game he's been to with the Bears,

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Speaker 1: and he texted me, He's like, I've seen six quarters

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Speaker 1: of Bears football and zero Bears touchdowns. He texted me

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Speaker 1: at halftime. This team, this coach, this quarterback, they are

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Speaker 1: adrift in a sea of mediocrity to stink and bad

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Speaker 1: decision making and regret, regret that they don't have Christian McCaffrey.

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Speaker 1: They don't have Patrick Mahomes, they don't have Deshaun Watson.

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Speaker 1: They got Mitchell fucking true Bisky and David Montgomery. That's

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Speaker 1: who they got. Yeah, it's it reminds me of like

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Speaker 1: the year after the Falcons came up short against the

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Speaker 1: nine the Patriots, and then the year after that they

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Speaker 1: were just done and they've been done ever since. And

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Speaker 1: we look at the Bears season last year and how

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Speaker 1: close they came, and instead of getting up to the

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Speaker 1: next level, they've regressed so far back. It's just it's

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Speaker 1: ridic killis and and the coach, I mean, to your

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Speaker 1: point of of relying on a long field goal, I mean,

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Speaker 1: he didn't even check with the kicker to see that

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Speaker 1: he prefers kicking from the middle instead of the left

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Speaker 1: hash mark, and and then he misses it left. I

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Speaker 1: mean they're just bad coaching all the way around. I mean,

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Speaker 1: the potential is there because of the talent of some

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Speaker 1: of the players, but uh, they're just on a downward spiral.

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Speaker 1: And and now they're they're facing an Eagles team that

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Speaker 1: put together one of their better games of the year.

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Speaker 1: We actually liked them against the Bills last week and

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Speaker 1: tried to shade the line to draw a lot of

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Speaker 1: Bills money there. Uh, here they are laying five and

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Speaker 1: a half, and we've actually got pretty good two ways,

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Speaker 1: to be honest with you. I mean, the public is

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Speaker 1: on the Eagles that about maybe a two to one ratio,

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Speaker 1: But you know, we we kind of bounced between five

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Speaker 1: and five and a half and we've got some decent

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Speaker 1: money on both sides. So some of the some of

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Speaker 1: the sharp guys are actually taking the five and a

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Speaker 1: half with embarrassed. Well, I was going to say all

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Speaker 1: that said my whole rant. The Bears are the right

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Speaker 1: side in this game. Here you go. You gotta bet

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Speaker 1: on these teams, you gotta, I mean, that's where the

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Speaker 1: value is. I mean, especially the worst a team looks,

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Speaker 1: the more the power rankings and the lines are going

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Speaker 1: to shift away from that direction. So at some point

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Speaker 1: you have to get some value on them. Kansas City

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Speaker 1: is a two and a half point favorite over the

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Speaker 1: Vikings at home. I'm assuming you believe Patrick Mahomes is

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Speaker 1: going to play um, but tell me what the plan

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Speaker 1: is here? Yeah, that it's kind of in the middle, actually,

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Speaker 1: so I think you know, with Mahomes definitely in, this

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Speaker 1: line goes up to three, three and a half. Without Mahomes,

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Speaker 1: you're kind of looking at a similar line. Is what

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Speaker 1: we saw with Green Bay Kansas City last week, Minnesota

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Speaker 1: being as high as maybe a two and a half,

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Speaker 1: possibly even a three point favorite. So in this case,

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Speaker 1: we're seeing probably it's going to be about a six

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Speaker 1: point line differential with him definitely in or definitely out,

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Speaker 1: we still have to take into consideration and he's not regardless,

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Speaker 1: so we're not getting the best Mahomes even if he

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Speaker 1: does play. So that is, you know, one of the

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Speaker 1: factors in this one. Washington visiting Buffalo. I felt like,

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Speaker 1: and Buffalo is a nine and a half point favorite.

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Speaker 1: I felt like the Eagles were the prime spot last week.

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Speaker 1: I think you did too. Do we think Buffalo was

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Speaker 1: just in a bad spot and like they're they're actually

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Speaker 1: a decent team or do we think that they've been

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Speaker 1: overvalued all year? Well, I think they have a decent

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Speaker 1: defense and the offense is still suspect and there's nothing

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Speaker 1: to indicate that kind of anything's changed in the last

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks. There. Um, I do think they're they're

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Speaker 1: good teams, so to be a sizeable favorite is you know,

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Speaker 1: to be expected in this game. But I think the

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Speaker 1: Sharper guys are going to take the points in this one,

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Speaker 1: so um, it's enough points to this way the general public,

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Speaker 1: I don't think they have enough confidence in the team

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Speaker 1: like the Bills, like they do some of you know

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Speaker 1: the teams like the Patriots and the forty niners and

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Speaker 1: you know the Seahawks or Rams where they don't mind

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Speaker 1: laying more than a touchdown. But to late ten points

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Speaker 1: with the Bills, I think. I think more people are

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Speaker 1: gonna kind of gravitate towards the Redskins in this one.

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Speaker 1: I think so too. I think so too, And it's weird, weird.

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Speaker 1: I think the Bills are gonna crush them. You know, uh,

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Speaker 1: who's traveling Our favorite team, the Indianapolis Colts are traveling

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Speaker 1: to Pittsburgh and there are one point favorites right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, Juggernauts Indianapolis, Yeah yeah for sure. Yeah. Well,

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Speaker 1: the Cults have just been a team that's been drawing

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Speaker 1: action either on them or against them all years. So

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Speaker 1: these have been real intriguing game games. Uh. And the Steelers,

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Speaker 1: I think even people that have been generally Steelers fans

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Speaker 1: over many years, and they have a huge following, I

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Speaker 1: think they just can't quite figure out what to do

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Speaker 1: with this team. Uh, you know, without a premier quarterback,

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Speaker 1: so you know the money is going to be coming

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Speaker 1: on the Colts. We did already get a couple couple

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Speaker 1: of plays. I could see this line moving up right

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Speaker 1: now where the Colts minus one, but I can definitely

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Speaker 1: see this line moving up to kind of two, possibly

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Speaker 1: even two and a half. I don't think the Sharp

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Speaker 1: guys will get involved in this. I don't think they're

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Speaker 1: they're seeing anything on the Steelers, even as short home

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Speaker 1: dogs that would make them want to come in on

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Speaker 1: this one. So I think this one might be one

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Speaker 1: where it's just all Colts both ways. Well, look, tickets

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Speaker 1: right now are coming in on the Colds. It is

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Speaker 1: going to get dangerously close to that scenario where you've

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Speaker 1: got of the tickets and on a road favorite, and

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Speaker 1: I as a as a this guy and all the

331
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Speaker 1: other moments out there are going to be compelled to

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Speaker 1: bet on the Steelers, and I wouldn't mind it. Like

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Speaker 1: the Colts, I think they're a well coached team, but

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure they're a very good team. Yeah, you know,

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Speaker 1: I I agree with that. Um, they have some talent

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Speaker 1: and and Burset has just been really effective. So um.

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Speaker 1: And on the other side, the Steelers, like they said that,

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Speaker 1: I mean, going down fourteen nothing against the Dolphins is

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Speaker 1: a fourteen point favorite. You know, didn't instill any confidence

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Speaker 1: in anybody, even though they did come back to almost

341
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Speaker 1: cover that one. But the public either stays away or

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Speaker 1: probably bets on the Colts. Um. And this is a week,

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Speaker 1: This is a week with a lot of short road

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Speaker 1: dogs with good teams, and that usually spells disaster for

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Speaker 1: the books, meaning it could be a week where the

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Speaker 1: general public has a has a big week. And I'll

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Speaker 1: give you a kind of a a statistic that is

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Speaker 1: completely non scientific and it's probably a little biased, but

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Speaker 1: in my recent memory, Breeder's Cup weekend has not been

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Speaker 1: a good weekend for the books and it seems like

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Speaker 1: you have, at least in Las Vegas, where you have

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Speaker 1: people in the in the book, it's it's busy. They're

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Speaker 1: bent horse racing and they see these short home uh,

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Speaker 1: these short road dogs, and they just bet on them,

355
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Speaker 1: just looking and say, oh, Packers are only laying three

356
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Speaker 1: or Patriots were only laying three and a half, and

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Speaker 1: it looks like an automatic play. And the last few

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Speaker 1: years Breeders Cup weekend has been an extremely public weekend.

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Speaker 1: Just seems the way that the schedule falls, and it

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Speaker 1: seems to be no different. Listen, Scares. I don't know

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Speaker 1: if you know this, but at the Action Network, we're

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Speaker 1: in the hunch and biased business. We're not in the

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Speaker 1: data and analytics business. So anytime you want to bring

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Speaker 1: that kind of like cold hardtake onto the podcast, you're

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Speaker 1: more than welcome. Yeah, nice, thank you. Listen. Um, we

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Speaker 1: have the out Pacino Coast coached Tennessee Sharks visiting the

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Speaker 1: the the Robert De Niro coached Carolina Ponies and they're

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Speaker 1: playing for the Pantheon Cup. Yeah, that's about the size

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Speaker 1: of the very little action on this game. I mean,

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Speaker 1: all the bets on this one are just parlay's and

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Speaker 1: a little slightly heavier on the Panthers because they're laying

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Speaker 1: three and a half but almost no money on this game.

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Speaker 1: This is especially with the Panthers coming off of that

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Speaker 1: kind of annihilation last week at the hands of the

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Speaker 1: forty niners. No one's going to become anxious to kind

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Speaker 1: of put their money on them this week. Um going

377
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Speaker 1: up against the Titans team who came out of the

378
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Speaker 1: gate looking real strong, putting up forty one points against

379
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Speaker 1: Cleveland and then just doing nothing significant Since then, we

380
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Speaker 1: got a couple of wins, but in some close games.

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Speaker 1: Again nothing to get the public excited about. So this

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Speaker 1: will be one of the corner TV games. The Jets

383
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Speaker 1: are visiting to the Dolphins. What is the money line

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Speaker 1: on this right now for the for the Dolphins and

385
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Speaker 1: they're getting plus one I. If the Dolphins are gonna

386
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Speaker 1: win any game, it's this game against the Jets team

387
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Speaker 1: that is a freaking mess. Levian Bell might get traded.

388
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Speaker 1: Jamal Adams might get traded. Sam Donald has not stopped

389
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Speaker 1: seeing ghosts. Robby Anderson might get traded. Everybody hates the GM.

390
00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 1: Adam gaze looks like a guy who they never should

391
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Speaker 1: have get given the job to and the only people

392
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Speaker 1: who thought he should have the job are the owners

393
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Speaker 1: who are too stupid to know the difference between Adam

394
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Speaker 1: Gates and an actual professional head football coach. Like this

395
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:39,840
Speaker 1: team is a wreck. This team is is an absolute wreck.

396
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Speaker 1: And the Dolphins got some spirit and they got some fight,

397
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Speaker 1: and they have gotten progressively harder to play every single week.

398
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Speaker 1: They just have like their challenges. They don't have the talent,

399
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Speaker 1: but they're not lacking in heart. And I think they're

400
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Speaker 1: playing a team that is as sort of diminished in

401
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Speaker 1: talent as they are. Give me the Dolphins plus Yeah,

402
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 1: I think the sharp guys agree with you here. Uh,

403
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Speaker 1: nobody's getting excited about getting the Jet and betting on

404
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,879
Speaker 1: the Jets. But the Dolphins are in a lot of games.

405
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:17,719
Speaker 1: And Okay, they cover against the Steelers, they cover against

406
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Speaker 1: the Niners, they cover against the Redskins. I mean they've

407
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Speaker 1: got three covers in a row. After coming out of

408
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 1: the Gates saying that you know they're they're going to

409
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Speaker 1: tank the season and unload their players, and they still

410
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,200
Speaker 1: made some bad this. I didn't understand the decision this

411
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,399
Speaker 1: week too, Uh, to get a key to leave and

412
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Speaker 1: get rid of a fifth rounder and a seventh rounder

413
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Speaker 1: to the Rams. But and you wonder just how much

414
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Speaker 1: a lot of that still is affecting morale. But they

415
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 1: do have probably more fight than what we've seen from

416
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Speaker 1: the Jets since that Cowboys win. So uh, it's an

417
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 1: intriguing game. And the sharp guys are with you. They're

418
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Speaker 1: taking the points with the Dolphins, and and they're actually

419
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Speaker 1: taking them a little bit on the money line as well.

420
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Speaker 1: There we go there. Oh my god, I am a

421
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 1: wise guy. Imagine that, because you've got to be professional

422
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Speaker 1: to recognize that this is the spot for the Dolphins. Yep,

423
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Speaker 1: yep um. The Tampa Bay Zealots of the doesn't really

424
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,679
Speaker 1: matter football league are visiting a real football team, the

425
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Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks. Uh, there's six point underdogs going to Seattle.

426
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Speaker 1: How do you bet against Russell Wilson at this point?

427
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 1: Although I will say, now that I think about it,

428
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:35,440
Speaker 1: this feels like the week where you want to bet

429
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:39,760
Speaker 1: on famous Jambus because he was so bad last week. Well,

430
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,199
Speaker 1: once again, the sharp guys agree with you. There. We

431
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 1: opened the game six and a half and a couple

432
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 1: of our biggest bets of the of the week so

433
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 1: far had been on the Buccaneers. So it's one of

434
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:55,159
Speaker 1: our biggest decisions as of right now. It's it's one

435
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 1: of our biggest decisions that we need the Seahawks. But

436
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 1: I would expect in the coming days that the public

437
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,199
Speaker 1: is going to still be on the Seahawks. Lay in

438
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 1: the six. I think the sharp guys might actually drive

439
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 1: this down to five and a half or lower. So

440
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 1: if you're going to bet the Seahawks, it's one of

441
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 1: the rare instances where you kinda bet the favorite late

442
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 1: because if you're if you're looking at the betting on

443
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers, you want to grab that six now while

444
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 1: you can. I guess that's what I'm gonna have to do.

445
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 1: If if I were a betting man, I guess that's

446
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:29,640
Speaker 1: what I would do. But I agree that's the side

447
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 1: you want to be on. Detroit at Oakland Oakland minus two. Listen,

448
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:37,919
Speaker 1: I've been on Detroit most of the year. I actually

449
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 1: like this team a lot, but Oakland showing up, you know,

450
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 1: like short, Oakland is a short home favorite. With which

451
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 1: which car brother is it? Is it Derek Carr with

452
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 1: Derek Carr actually playing decent football and being accurate and

453
00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:01,120
Speaker 1: Josh Jacobs as a powerhouse running back. I don't mind

454
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,359
Speaker 1: open is a short home favorite. Start start move, Millman

455
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 1: moved go Yeah, two weeks in a row where the

456
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 1: Raiders really should have gotten to win. You know, I

457
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 1: love the Raiders a couple of weeks ago against green

458
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 1: Bay and you know, I know you can't take much

459
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 1: from just three quarters, but they didn't really just looked

460
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 1: alive until Derek Carr fumbled that ball against green Bay

461
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 1: going into the end zone. And then last week they

462
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 1: had that game in hand. I mean that talk about

463
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 1: the right side with the wrong result. That was one

464
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 1: of them. They still get the cover easily last week,

465
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:34,880
Speaker 1: but there was another one they should have won the game.

466
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:39,119
Speaker 1: I do like this Raiders team, and I like the

467
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:42,160
Speaker 1: Lions a lot more. Early in the year. They're starting

468
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:45,880
Speaker 1: to kind of plateau a little bit, So I think

469
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 1: this is a real good spot for the Raiders, and

470
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:51,160
Speaker 1: I wouldn't mind taking a little Lions money in this one,

471
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 1: but right now it's kind of dead even. But I

472
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 1: think this Lion has a better chance of going to

473
00:26:57,200 --> 00:26:59,879
Speaker 1: three on the Raiders than it does moving towards pit.

474
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 1: So get it while it's short. As they might say

475
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:10,640
Speaker 1: in the betting business. Yes, sir, did I just make

476
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 1: something up? Did I make it up? Get something? While

477
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 1: it's short doesn't have a good ring to it, though,

478
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:18,920
Speaker 1: I don't want to put that on a T shirt.

479
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 1: Get no, no, get it. While it's short, okay, still

480
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:26,239
Speaker 1: has a bad ring to it has other connotations. All

481
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:31,680
Speaker 1: of a sudden, you're like a literary critic. You spent

482
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:35,760
Speaker 1: thirty years in the dark and the smoke of the

483
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:39,159
Speaker 1: sports book. You come out into the light once a

484
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 1: week for thirty minutes to talk to me, and all

485
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:43,640
Speaker 1: of a sudden, you feel like you can tell me

486
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:46,679
Speaker 1: what sounds good. I've written seven books, four of them

487
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 1: best sellers, and I'm a content genius. That's what's happened.

488
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 1: I'm reading all those moment books. Get it, well, it's short.

489
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 1: Cleveland is a three point favorite at Denver. That Denver

490
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:08,160
Speaker 1: team is a hot mess and Cleveland. Look, they didn't

491
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 1: look great against the Patriots, but that was the right

492
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 1: side and they got burned by a couple of phantom

493
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:19,159
Speaker 1: p I calls. Yeah, I agree with you there, and

494
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:21,640
Speaker 1: you talk about a team that really should have won

495
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 1: last week and didn't. The Broncos had that game against

496
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 1: the Colts and then they let the Colts. Uh, I

497
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:30,959
Speaker 1: don't know how with seconds left. I mean they had

498
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 1: Jacoby bur said, I think von Miller had him in

499
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:36,639
Speaker 1: the grass in his own end zone with like thirty

500
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 1: a minute left in the game, couldn't bring him down.

501
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,960
Speaker 1: They let him throw for like thirty yards, drive down,

502
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 1: kicked the game winning field goal. Um. This Broncos team

503
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:49,040
Speaker 1: is just I mean they that's I think I can

504
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 1: count five games now where they lost in similar fashions

505
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 1: this year that they probably should have won. But you

506
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 1: can't keep saying that every week. You know, they should

507
00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 1: have won this game, they should have won that game.

508
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 1: They're only getting a few a goal in this one

509
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 1: against a much better Browns team. Um, the sharp guys

510
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 1: agree with you. They're on the Browns at minus three.

511
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 1: We went to three months twenty. If anything, I see

512
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 1: the line going up on the Browns. I feel like

513
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 1: the window on this team could be five and two,

514
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:21,240
Speaker 1: not two and five. Is say, five weeks. You sort

515
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 1: of get the benefit of the doubt. We're like, hey,

516
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 1: you look back on the record, and they lost two

517
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 1: games in the last second, and then they won two

518
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:29,760
Speaker 1: games and two games they just didn't look good, but

519
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 1: they could easily be foreign to not to not you know,

520
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 1: two and four, I feel like you run out of

521
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 1: that is sort of like something you can bank on

522
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 1: as a team to buoy your your your players. Yeah,

523
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 1: they did get they did get the cover though last week.

524
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 1: I mean, what were they getting like six points in

525
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 1: that game last week that they probably should have won

526
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 1: out right, So they did cover fairly easy. And in

527
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 1: our game, it's more about covering than winning. So there

528
00:29:56,320 --> 00:30:02,520
Speaker 1: you have it. Whatever did? Uh? Green Bay on the

529
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:05,720
Speaker 1: road three and a half point favorites at the Los

530
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:11,400
Speaker 1: Angeles Chargers, which is not really like um being on

531
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 1: the road at all. It's not this Charger team has

532
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 1: no home field advantage really, and I'm sure there's gonna

533
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 1: be more Packers in the Packers fans in the stadium

534
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 1: than there are Chargers. But great action on this one. Obviously,

535
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 1: the public is all over the Packers and this one

536
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 1: at a huge rate. Maybe about of the tickets are

537
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 1: on the Packers. Um. But we did get some some

538
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 1: pretty big action on the Chargers at plus three and

539
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 1: a half. But then we even got bigger action on

540
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:44,000
Speaker 1: the Packers at minus three and a half. So, like

541
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 1: I said, a lot of action both ways. Obviously one

542
00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 1: of the later games of the day. So it's gonna

543
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 1: be a huge with a good team like the Packers,

544
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 1: um with. It's going to be the highest profile of

545
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 1: game of the afternoon for us. Uh, you know, not

546
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 1: including the game of the Patriots Ravens, but of the

547
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 1: rest of the games, it's gonna be a big decision

548
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 1: for us. We're going to need the Chargers. Speaking of

549
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 1: the Patriots Ravens, the Patriots are three and a half

550
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 1: point favorites in Baltimore. My friends Stucky I mentioned earlier

551
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 1: action at our podcast and by the way, everything I

552
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 1: look at in terms of the data where I talk

553
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:22,040
Speaker 1: about the betting percentages, money percentages, lines, etcetera. You can

554
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 1: get it all in the Action Network app downloaded for free.

555
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 1: You can also follow all my pics via Chad Millman

556
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 1: or to fifty six or Busts Scoochy. You know that

557
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 1: we had an app called the Action Network. I've heard

558
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 1: of that. Yeah, it's got a pretty good reputation in

559
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 1: your industry. Nice, do you ever want to come out

560
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 1: of the dark. I might do that. I'll do it

561
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 1: this week. Next week. You're gonna be live in the

562
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 1: studio by the way. Yeah, we gotta figure out of time,

563
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:53,640
Speaker 1: but I'll be in New York. That you sound really enthusiastic.

564
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 1: Baltimore as a three and a half point dog to

565
00:31:57,000 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 1: the Patriots. All in on the Ravens, baby, all in.

566
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 1: This is the game the Patriots lose, this ends their

567
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 1: undefeated season. Yeah. Everything points to the Ravens in this one.

568
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 1: We opened the game four. The wise guys were all

569
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 1: over it. They took the four. We're down the three

570
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 1: and a half. The public is all over the Patriots

571
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 1: and this one. But it's a great spot for the Ravens.

572
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 1: Ravens can't lose this one. Patriots undefeated season goes down

573
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 1: on this one. And having said all that, give me

574
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 1: the Patriots again because you just don't bet against this team.

575
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 1: Oh my god, you are such a buzz kill. And

576
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 1: the way you built that up, it was so clear

577
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 1: like you were going misdirection. That was like a Matt

578
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 1: Negy called misdirection. Everybody in the stadium knew which way

579
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 1: you're going with that, all right, Well, you know, stastic

580
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 1: it was intentional. Yeah, I could sense it because you

581
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:56,640
Speaker 1: were laying it down pretty thick. Yeah, it was telegraphed

582
00:32:56,760 --> 00:33:01,120
Speaker 1: like everything in the Bears offense, like Robiski passes for

583
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 1: this passes, Matt Nig's play calls, the fact they're gonna

584
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:06,880
Speaker 1: miss a fifty five yard field goal to lose a game.

585
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 1: I'm gonna love the Ravens in this foreshadowing, foreshadowing, foreshadowing,

586
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 1: scooterrow leed foreshadowing. Dallas is on the road against the

587
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 1: New York Giants, their seven point favorites. Monday Night Football,

588
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 1: give me the Giants. Yeah, another sharp guy play. Uh.

589
00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 1: You know we opened seven and a half, we went

590
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 1: down to seven, and they're they're taking the seven. But

591
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 1: the public is all over the Cowboys and just kind

592
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 1: of similar again, like I said, all these road uh favorites.

593
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:40,960
Speaker 1: It seems like this weekend, first weekend of November sets

594
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 1: up where there's just a ton of road favorites, uh,

595
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 1: and a lot of short road favorites. But Cowboys lane seven. Um,

596
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 1: you know, our day is really gonna come down, or

597
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:55,000
Speaker 1: our weekend, I should say, is really gonna come down

598
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:58,480
Speaker 1: to three or four games. Packers over the Chargers, Patriots

599
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 1: over the Ravens, and then all Boys over the Giants

600
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 1: to to cap the weekend. If that happens, every book

601
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 1: in the country gets beat. I am seen the board

602
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 1: so clearly right now. It's like I've never had more

603
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 1: confidence going in a week, and then I do right now.

604
00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:18,320
Speaker 1: I hope you're right because you like a lot of dogs,

605
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:21,279
Speaker 1: and that's what we need this week. That's what they've

606
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:26,279
Speaker 1: said about me for years. Scooch. You know what we're

607
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:29,400
Speaker 1: gonna do right now? What's that play a little Scooch roulette?

608
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:38,879
Speaker 1: Last week? You had the Dolphins, they covered. I had

609
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: the Panthers, they did not. Therefore, Mr Scucci, Robert Scucci,

610
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 1: you get to go first. Yeah, I'm gonna go with

611
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:53,440
Speaker 1: this Packers team. And I know I mean going up

612
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:55,839
Speaker 1: against the Chargers and having kind of no home field

613
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 1: advantage for the Chargers, laying three and a half seems

614
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:00,520
Speaker 1: like a short price. So I'm just like goal those

615
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 1: recreational bettors coming into the sports book seeing that short number,

616
00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 1: get a well short. I am gonna go with the

617
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:17,239
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins. I'm gonna go with the Miami Dolphins on

618
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:23,800
Speaker 1: the money line. Nice, there you go. Money line movement,

619
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 1: that's what they call. You get it. You get extra

620
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 1: points for that because it's a money line. Yeah, so

621
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 1: I'll win like two weeks in a row. Yeah, alright, folks, listen.

622
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:35,279
Speaker 1: Uh coming up in a few minutes, we got a

623
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:37,759
Speaker 1: special guest talking about the Breeders Cup. And then later

624
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:40,600
Speaker 1: on in the show, Simon Hunter Professional Better is gonna

625
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 1: come on and we're gonna pick our five teams for

626
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 1: the Super Contest. We're doing it without Danni Ravel, which

627
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:50,240
Speaker 1: means we're gonna win every game. Bob Scucci next week,

628
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:54,279
Speaker 1: live in studio, whatever time you'd like, because I want

629
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:57,400
Speaker 1: some enthusiasm when you come in. Thank you for coming

630
00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:00,720
Speaker 1: on your podcast. All right, listen, we got a special

631
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:04,240
Speaker 1: guest coming up for the Breeders Cup, and this segment

632
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 1: is sponsored by tv G, which is America's favorite legal

633
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 1: online wagering platform for twenty years and tv G is

634
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:16,799
Speaker 1: the official wagering partner of the Breeders Cup. Everybody heard

635
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:19,319
Speaker 1: Scooch and I talking about the Breeders Cup. It is

636
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 1: a massive weekend. The books will be so crowded wherever

637
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 1: sports betting is legal, It's going to be an exciting weekend.

638
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:27,839
Speaker 1: Everyone gets pumped up for the Triple Crown races, right,

639
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 1: but smart betters know that the Breeders Cup is the

640
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:32,319
Speaker 1: best bet of the year in horse racing. I know

641
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:35,080
Speaker 1: this because last year we had so much traction, so

642
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:38,880
Speaker 1: much traction against the Breeders Cup on Action Network dot Com.

643
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:42,320
Speaker 1: It's not just one race. The top horses, trainers and

644
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 1: jockeys from around the world are getting together for an

645
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 1: amazing weekend. Fourteen races, thirty million dollars in purses. It's

646
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:52,799
Speaker 1: likely that the horse of the year, the horse of

647
00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:57,880
Speaker 1: the year will likely be crowned after this weekend at

648
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:00,080
Speaker 1: the Breeders Cup. Like I said, tv G is the

649
00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:03,760
Speaker 1: official wagering partner of the Breeders Cup. It's America's favorite

650
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:06,800
Speaker 1: legal online wagering platform for twenty years, and it is

651
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:12,160
Speaker 1: a huge, huge Breeders Cup offer, a huge Breeders Cup offer.

652
00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:17,759
Speaker 1: New accounts can bet up to five dollars risk free

653
00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:22,480
Speaker 1: on a Breeders Cup race. People five hundred dollars risk free.

654
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 1: That's ridiculous. They're giving you five dollars. New sign ups

655
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:28,359
Speaker 1: bet up to five dollars and if your horse doesn't win,

656
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:35,400
Speaker 1: you get the money back. Folks, horse racing at its finest,

657
00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:40,360
Speaker 1: the Breeders Cup. Let's roll. Okay, coming on to talk

658
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 1: Breeders Cup. Dave Weaver, a host and handicapper with t

659
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 1: v G Dave I just finished telling everybody how exciting

660
00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:51,320
Speaker 1: Breeders Cup weekend it is is and it is huge.

661
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:55,200
Speaker 1: Um my guest before Bob Scucci, bookmaker at the Orleans

662
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:57,879
Speaker 1: all the Boyd Gaming Books, I was talking all about

663
00:37:57,920 --> 00:38:00,320
Speaker 1: how the Breeders Cup drive so much action but also

664
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 1: makes the book that much more exciting. On over the weekend,

665
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 1: fourteen races, thirty million dollar purse. Who's going to be

666
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 1: the horse of the year. Well, we all know the

667
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:18,239
Speaker 1: answer to that. After the series of races. There are

668
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:21,800
Speaker 1: a couple of horses that have not lost all year long,

669
00:38:21,840 --> 00:38:26,000
Speaker 1: and depending on the outcomes of what happens in these races,

670
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:29,439
Speaker 1: we're going to know. But but as a better and

671
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:32,400
Speaker 1: as better as across the country, No, there are really

672
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 1: two days that people are paying attention to horse racing,

673
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 1: even if they're not a big horse racing fan. Number

674
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 1: one would be the Kentucky Derby and number two would

675
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:45,760
Speaker 1: be the Breeders Cup. So in in you know pools,

676
00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:49,719
Speaker 1: betting pools. Normally that would be a hundred thousand dollars.

677
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 1: Now we're talking millions of dollars. So there's so much

678
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 1: money that we made this weekend. Yeah. I was actually

679
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:58,040
Speaker 1: surprised last year the Action Network. You know, obviously we're

680
00:38:58,040 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 1: two years almost two years old, and so last year

681
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 1: was the first year that we covered the Breeders Cup.

682
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:07,200
Speaker 1: I was shocked at how much activity, traction, uh, traffic

683
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 1: subs we drove from the Breeders Cup. It feels like, uh,

684
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:16,279
Speaker 1: it feels like people talk about the people Crown. You

685
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:18,600
Speaker 1: say it's the second sort of most talked about race

686
00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 1: of the year. I would say, I'm not sure I

687
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 1: believe that. I feel like it's maybe fourth. But for

688
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 1: some fans who like are on the periphery, this is

689
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:30,279
Speaker 1: when they jump back in the pool. Yeah. And there

690
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 1: are fourteen races. You know, the Kentucky Derby Boom, that's

691
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:35,200
Speaker 1: the one race that day. There are bigger, big races

692
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:38,439
Speaker 1: on the undercard, but this weekend with fourteen grade ones

693
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 1: and you mentioned the thirty million dollars in purses. There.

694
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 1: There's a horse in the in the distaff named and

695
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:45,440
Speaker 1: maybe South that's undefeated. If she wins, she's got a

696
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:47,560
Speaker 1: chance for Horse the Year. There's a horse named Bricks

697
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 1: and Mortar that's in in the turf on Saturday, that

698
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 1: I'm trying to beat this a big favorite. That let's

699
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:55,799
Speaker 1: put things in the sports terms for you real quick,

700
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:57,880
Speaker 1: because I know a lot of your audience are betting

701
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 1: sports every day and not so much racing. So you know,

702
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:03,960
Speaker 1: if you're laying minus one ten on on a game,

703
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:07,239
Speaker 1: you're going fifty fifty two coin toss. And in a

704
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 1: horse race, you know they're twelve horses in this race,

705
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:13,440
Speaker 1: So you're gonna be able to find horses that present

706
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 1: good value, um better than than you know, plus one

707
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:20,840
Speaker 1: fifty or plus one eighty, which you're gonna see in

708
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:24,600
Speaker 1: a in a basketball game or a football game. And

709
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:27,920
Speaker 1: now we're looking at horses that are essentially, in sports

710
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:33,000
Speaker 1: bedding terms, plus two thousand plus twenty one shots to

711
00:40:33,080 --> 00:40:35,920
Speaker 1: one shots. Because the horse is gonna be favored. I

712
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:39,160
Speaker 1: don't like. I don't think he deserves to be as

713
00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:41,479
Speaker 1: shorter price as he's gonna be, which is probably gonna

714
00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 1: be somewhere in the even money range. And I'm gonna

715
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 1: try to beat him. He's going further than he's ever

716
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 1: gone before, so I believe he's gonna get tired when

717
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:51,799
Speaker 1: it comes to the top of the lane and we

718
00:40:51,880 --> 00:40:53,880
Speaker 1: can beat him with a price, or some horses that

719
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:57,759
Speaker 1: are shipping in internationally from from Europe that usually have

720
00:40:57,840 --> 00:41:00,759
Speaker 1: a lot of success in this race because they have

721
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:03,440
Speaker 1: the experience going the mile and a half distance. And

722
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:06,160
Speaker 1: I'm looking at a horse that came from France last

723
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 1: time out and finished second at thirteen to one at Woodbine,

724
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:13,279
Speaker 1: So he has one race here in North America. He

725
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 1: might be twenty or thirty to one. We're talking about

726
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 1: the number seven horse, Al Lannach, that's gonna be race

727
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:21,239
Speaker 1: number eleven on Saturday. That would be my big price

728
00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:23,839
Speaker 1: play to consider in that race. What are the other

729
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 1: big races and you mentioned a couple of horses that

730
00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 1: people are talking about. Bob Baffort has a horse running

731
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:32,840
Speaker 1: in this race, like the big trainers are there. Break

732
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:37,399
Speaker 1: it down for me of like horses that are sort

733
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 1: of on the popular side, like you've just discussed, and

734
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 1: there are real chances for placing for winning. Actually, the

735
00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:46,879
Speaker 1: big the big race is the Breeders Cup Classic. It's

736
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:49,520
Speaker 1: the final race on Saturday, goes race number twelve. Bob

737
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:52,680
Speaker 1: Baffort has the morning line's favorite and it's a horse

738
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:55,880
Speaker 1: local to Santa Anita, named Mackenzie that's never been worse

739
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:59,680
Speaker 1: than seconds in seven races here at Santa Anita. So

740
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:01,719
Speaker 1: he comes was back off the second place try where

741
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:05,080
Speaker 1: he's a heavy, heavy favorite last time out. Mike Smith,

742
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:08,720
Speaker 1: legendary rider, he's one over two hundred Grade one races,

743
00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:13,919
Speaker 1: got fired for not riding to Bob Bafford's instructions last

744
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:15,800
Speaker 1: time out, and he's going to have a new rider

745
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 1: and Joel Azario. So Mike Smith ends up on another horse.

746
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:20,959
Speaker 1: You know how sweet that would be if he could

747
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 1: beat Bafford. Now I'm sure they're still friends, but business wise,

748
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 1: you have to make these decisions in these races. And

749
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:30,839
Speaker 1: Mike Smith picks up the number five horse, Yoshida, who

750
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:33,680
Speaker 1: I actually think could beat the number eight horse Mackenzie.

751
00:42:33,680 --> 00:42:36,799
Speaker 1: But Bob Bafford usually has big success on these type

752
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 1: of days, and this is his home track at stan Anita.

753
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna try to beat Mackenzie. That's the Bafford

754
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:44,840
Speaker 1: horse in the race twelve, that's the Breeders Step Classic.

755
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:47,759
Speaker 1: What wasn't Mike Smith doing? What did Bob Baffor not

756
00:42:47,920 --> 00:42:52,279
Speaker 1: like he was? I think he wanted him to be

757
00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 1: in front and and take this horse to lead and win.

758
00:42:55,680 --> 00:42:58,799
Speaker 1: But I'm kind of on the side of Look, that

759
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:01,200
Speaker 1: was a two hundred thousand dollar purse. This is the

760
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:03,759
Speaker 1: six million dollar purse. As long as I get the

761
00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 1: lead in the race that matters, and as long as

762
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:09,200
Speaker 1: I win the race that matters, shouldn't everything be okay?

763
00:43:09,239 --> 00:43:12,239
Speaker 1: But apparently not, because after finishing second in that race

764
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:15,120
Speaker 1: as the one to five favorite, Badford decided to make

765
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:17,960
Speaker 1: a change and Mike Smith no longer has them mount

766
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:23,360
Speaker 1: on McKenzie. It's so interesting in horse racing that the

767
00:43:23,480 --> 00:43:26,880
Speaker 1: trainers will change the jockeys at a moment's notice, and

768
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 1: like either it speaks to how much impact the jockeys

769
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 1: can have in two minutes or how little the jockeys matter.

770
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:37,799
Speaker 1: Because you know, in most areas, preparation in sports, like

771
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:41,160
Speaker 1: in most events, preparation is the key. You need to

772
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:43,320
Speaker 1: be practicing, you need to be playing, you need to

773
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:46,920
Speaker 1: be getting comfortable with your teammates. In horse racing, it

774
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:50,279
Speaker 1: feels like it's the apposite. Well, you can't fire the

775
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:52,320
Speaker 1: trainer or else if you fire yourself, so the next

776
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 1: the next scapegoat is going to be to fire the jockey.

777
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:58,360
Speaker 1: I myself would not take Mike Smith off of this horse.

778
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 1: He he knows them very very well. He also had

779
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:03,480
Speaker 1: a questionable ride and three starts back in the metropol

780
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:05,720
Speaker 1: is a mile where he got just boxed in behind

781
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:08,319
Speaker 1: horses and wasn't able to find the seam. So maybe

782
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:11,160
Speaker 1: between that and his last start, you know, it was

783
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:13,040
Speaker 1: just time to make a change. But we'll see if

784
00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:15,640
Speaker 1: it was the right move or not. All right, Dave,

785
00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 1: give me the three bets I should make this weekend.

786
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:20,040
Speaker 1: You mentioned one, give me give me them all together.

787
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:23,560
Speaker 1: So the first bet that I had already mentioned is

788
00:44:23,560 --> 00:44:27,719
Speaker 1: gonna come in race number eleven on Saturday. That's the

789
00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:30,439
Speaker 1: number seven horse, all Enact. That's gonna be a wind bet.

790
00:44:30,440 --> 00:44:33,360
Speaker 1: This is the horse is gonna be twenty maybe thirty

791
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:36,319
Speaker 1: to one at post time. Okay, let's go earlier in

792
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:39,359
Speaker 1: the day. Race number four. It's the first Breeders Cup Race.

793
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 1: There are three races that are steaks that are are

794
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:44,480
Speaker 1: not considered the Breeders Cup races because they're not grade ones.

795
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 1: But the first actual Breeders Cup race on Saturday is

796
00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:50,080
Speaker 1: the Breeder's Kept Filling Mayre Turf Sprints. Sorry, but he

797
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:52,680
Speaker 1: just got filling Mayor sprints. There's a horse that's gonna

798
00:44:52,719 --> 00:44:55,440
Speaker 1: be over bet from the inside post name Cofefi, that

799
00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:57,719
Speaker 1: is going further than I think she wants to go.

800
00:44:57,880 --> 00:45:01,319
Speaker 1: She's gonna get dueled by another horse named sel Court.

801
00:45:01,360 --> 00:45:03,720
Speaker 1: It's gonna set it up for a horse named Come Dancing,

802
00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:06,400
Speaker 1: who's gonna sit off the pace and run right past

803
00:45:06,440 --> 00:45:08,359
Speaker 1: them with about an eighth of a mile ago. That's

804
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:11,120
Speaker 1: the number four horse, fourth race, four horse Come Dancing,

805
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 1: eleventh race, the seven horse Alannoch and then the twelfth

806
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:19,000
Speaker 1: race with the British Cup Classic. Let's get your sheet

807
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:23,320
Speaker 1: at home. Mike Smith, maybe everything happens for a reason

808
00:45:23,560 --> 00:45:25,080
Speaker 1: and he ends up winning with a horse that he

809
00:45:25,239 --> 00:45:27,759
Speaker 1: never thought he would be riding in that race. Oh

810
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 1: my god, I love that. I love that you were

811
00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:33,400
Speaker 1: going for Bike Smith in the Battle Royale against Bob Bafford.

812
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:35,640
Speaker 1: It feels kind of personal. Feels like you're against Bob Bafford.

813
00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:37,640
Speaker 1: That's all I'm saying. I'm not. I like Bob a lot.

814
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:40,160
Speaker 1: I like Mike too, So that's fine. That's great, all right,

815
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:42,120
Speaker 1: Listen to everybody. The Breeders Cup is a great weekend

816
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:44,840
Speaker 1: of racing. Um And that's not even like in the

817
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:47,360
Speaker 1: script that I'm being told to read. It is pretty fantastic.

818
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:49,799
Speaker 1: And in a week like a fall weekend, when you're

819
00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:53,520
Speaker 1: getting the NFL and you're getting the Breeders Cup, fourteen races,

820
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:57,160
Speaker 1: thirty million in purses, Go sign up, learn more tv

821
00:45:57,280 --> 00:45:59,840
Speaker 1: G dot com New sign ups. You bet up to

822
00:46:00,040 --> 00:46:02,680
Speaker 1: five hundred dollars and if your horse doesn't win, you

823
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:07,080
Speaker 1: get the money back five dollars new accounts, risk free

824
00:46:07,120 --> 00:46:10,440
Speaker 1: offer on a Breeders Cup race. Go get a TVG

825
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 1: dot com. It is time to make the five picks

826
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:18,200
Speaker 1: that is going to turn me into a millionaire, so

827
00:46:18,239 --> 00:46:20,759
Speaker 1: I can walk around Atlantic Atlantic City like my guest

828
00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:25,240
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, just dropping bags of money on the World

829
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:28,839
Speaker 1: Series tonight from whatever posh hotel he's hanging out at

830
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:36,040
Speaker 1: in a c Simon, how you doing, buddy? And now

831
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 1: a word from a wise guy with Simon Hunter. Listen,

832
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:44,600
Speaker 1: we got rid of ravel this week, thank god. So

833
00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:49,280
Speaker 1: it's just you and me. We can make educated, smart picks.

834
00:46:49,640 --> 00:46:51,560
Speaker 1: None of this dolphins crap that it's going to make

835
00:46:51,560 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 1: a sweat until the very end that Revel had even

836
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:56,359
Speaker 1: though he won, I feel like we're just we you know,

837
00:46:56,719 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 1: we escaped with our lives in that game. Yeah, I

838
00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:03,960
Speaker 1: can't believe Darren's busy day planning around the mattress guy.

839
00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:06,879
Speaker 1: But I guess the millionaires have probably planes about phone,

840
00:47:06,920 --> 00:47:08,520
Speaker 1: so I guess that makes sense. You can't call in.

841
00:47:08,880 --> 00:47:12,799
Speaker 1: So you're so so right here the picks I'm going

842
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:16,040
Speaker 1: with right now? Okay, are you ready? And like, I

843
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 1: know how you feel about some of these picks, because like,

844
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:23,160
Speaker 1: sharp players aren't always the right plays in the contest. Um,

845
00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:30,839
Speaker 1: I love Pittsburgh, I love uh Oakland, I love Cleveland,

846
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 1: I love Baltimore, and I think I love the Giants. Yeah, Like,

847
00:47:40,880 --> 00:47:43,640
Speaker 1: I definitely I'm gonna be betting on pretty much all

848
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:46,279
Speaker 1: those games. And it's just like where you just said,

849
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 1: like you don't always want to take the sharpest play.

850
00:47:48,239 --> 00:47:51,120
Speaker 1: Like last week, I talked to the other taking Cleveland

851
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:52,759
Speaker 1: and taking green Bay just because I knew at the

852
00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 1: end of the day we'd be killing ourselves saying why

853
00:47:56,040 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 1: did we back Baker Mayfield against Tom Brady. So it's

854
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:03,080
Speaker 1: definitely one of those for the contest, it's all about

855
00:48:03,080 --> 00:48:05,640
Speaker 1: playing it a little weird and a little differently than

856
00:48:05,640 --> 00:48:08,360
Speaker 1: you would normally bet. Like I texted you guys, I

857
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:10,720
Speaker 1: think at like seven am on Sunday, my my picks

858
00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 1: for the Super Contest and how we do it with

859
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:16,920
Speaker 1: our algorithms and our theories, and it was obviously we

860
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 1: went for once so it worked out, but the one

861
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:22,239
Speaker 1: we lost with Atlanta. So anyone normal person would say

862
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:24,560
Speaker 1: that's a stupid bet to take Atlanta plus six and

863
00:48:24,560 --> 00:48:27,239
Speaker 1: a half. But basically that's how you have to play

864
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:29,200
Speaker 1: the contest. You have to play it with a system

865
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:30,879
Speaker 1: and stick to that system, even if you don't even

866
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:34,360
Speaker 1: believe in yourself. So I like your heads that with

867
00:48:34,400 --> 00:48:37,000
Speaker 1: a couple of them, I think for the Super Contest,

868
00:48:37,400 --> 00:48:41,200
Speaker 1: I do like the Oakland side where it's they're they're

869
00:48:41,200 --> 00:48:44,080
Speaker 1: coming finally coming back oben after a long run, and

870
00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:47,719
Speaker 1: the lines have looked good. I mean Stafford looked good.

871
00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:52,880
Speaker 1: He's played bad teams, he's played well, he's put up points. Um. Well,

872
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:55,520
Speaker 1: I like the Oakland spot coming home here. What do

873
00:48:55,520 --> 00:48:59,960
Speaker 1: you what do you think about Pittsburgh that that's such

874
00:49:00,040 --> 00:49:05,200
Speaker 1: a fishy line where it's like I saw it come

875
00:49:05,239 --> 00:49:08,319
Speaker 1: out and I couldn't believe even before the Monday night

876
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 1: game it was a pick um and I took I

877
00:49:12,719 --> 00:49:16,640
Speaker 1: took Pittsburgh right then because I knew that it might

878
00:49:16,680 --> 00:49:18,520
Speaker 1: be a good value where they could win and they

879
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:20,920
Speaker 1: maybe go up, it actually went the other way. So

880
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:24,400
Speaker 1: now they're actually a dog um and it's going to

881
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:27,080
Speaker 1: cold swist. So obviously the public is found in the Colts.

882
00:49:27,880 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 1: But that's that's a coin flip game where I don't

883
00:49:30,080 --> 00:49:32,799
Speaker 1: see much value in the line in my system. Like

884
00:49:33,040 --> 00:49:36,920
Speaker 1: I got I got them at minus two Pittsburgh, so

885
00:49:37,000 --> 00:49:40,359
Speaker 1: yeah again plus one, But is that really really what

886
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 1: we want to do? We want to back Pittsburgh all

887
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:45,640
Speaker 1: you know what I'm doing. I'm taking Pittsburgh and I'm

888
00:49:45,680 --> 00:49:47,399
Speaker 1: taking Clearland out of it because you're right, I don't

889
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:51,120
Speaker 1: want to back those teams. Yeah, like that. That Brown's

890
00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:55,239
Speaker 1: one that that's a really funny spot where usually it

891
00:49:55,280 --> 00:49:58,279
Speaker 1: does work out going against backed up qvs. But in

892
00:49:58,320 --> 00:50:01,600
Speaker 1: their first spot, like we saw on Sunday and night,

893
00:50:01,680 --> 00:50:04,879
Speaker 1: usually these backups their first game, they come out, most

894
00:50:04,880 --> 00:50:07,560
Speaker 1: of them played pretty good. So I definitely would stay

895
00:50:07,560 --> 00:50:12,040
Speaker 1: away from the Cleveland. I'd go with the Broncos there, Well,

896
00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:15,239
Speaker 1: you go with the Broncos. Yeah, I'm I'm gonna be

897
00:50:15,280 --> 00:50:19,279
Speaker 1: taking the Brown because I like I like this, I

898
00:50:19,360 --> 00:50:23,000
Speaker 1: like their defense matchup wise against the offensive line of

899
00:50:23,160 --> 00:50:25,360
Speaker 1: the Browns, like they didn't address that weakness in the

900
00:50:25,360 --> 00:50:29,200
Speaker 1: trade deadline, So my ratings the Browns really haven't improved

901
00:50:29,600 --> 00:50:31,520
Speaker 1: at all since the start of the season, so they're

902
00:50:31,600 --> 00:50:33,080
Speaker 1: kind of one of these teams on the down slopes,

903
00:50:33,120 --> 00:50:35,160
Speaker 1: So I'll be faithing them this week. Are you going

904
00:50:35,200 --> 00:50:41,680
Speaker 1: to take them in the contest? Mm hmm, I might

905
00:50:41,800 --> 00:50:43,359
Speaker 1: just because that might be one of the heavy ones.

906
00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:46,200
Speaker 1: Like right now, the a lock for me, My contest

907
00:50:46,239 --> 00:50:49,800
Speaker 1: is probably gonna be the Chargers because everybody's going to

908
00:50:49,880 --> 00:50:52,600
Speaker 1: take the Green Bay line. It's a really really bad line,

909
00:50:53,719 --> 00:50:58,240
Speaker 1: so it's one of those where the Chargers are probably

910
00:50:58,239 --> 00:51:00,279
Speaker 1: gonnap losing, but I don't see them lose. Them buy

911
00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:02,880
Speaker 1: more than the field goal, So it's kind of funny

912
00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:07,279
Speaker 1: that they opened the line. He could have got green

913
00:51:07,320 --> 00:51:09,359
Speaker 1: Bay and minus three, but I'm still seeing a lot

914
00:51:09,360 --> 00:51:11,680
Speaker 1: of I'm seeing mainly three and a halfs now out there,

915
00:51:12,080 --> 00:51:13,960
Speaker 1: so it's it's funny they're giving you the hook with

916
00:51:14,080 --> 00:51:17,759
Speaker 1: the Chargers and that I don't know I could. I

917
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:19,919
Speaker 1: don't get why they didn't open this line at green

918
00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:22,160
Speaker 1: Bay minus six because they would have got way more

919
00:51:22,200 --> 00:51:24,719
Speaker 1: money on the chargers and they're not really getting any

920
00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:27,120
Speaker 1: any money on the chargers besides sharp money. So it's

921
00:51:27,160 --> 00:51:29,000
Speaker 1: kind of funny they hung that line where it's one

922
00:51:29,000 --> 00:51:31,160
Speaker 1: of those they're saying, this is what we believe in

923
00:51:31,719 --> 00:51:33,520
Speaker 1: and everyone could come beat on Green Bay. We're gonna

924
00:51:33,560 --> 00:51:37,200
Speaker 1: believe in our own line. We're laying here. So it's

925
00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:39,560
Speaker 1: it's a funny. That's what the contest is really weird,

926
00:51:39,600 --> 00:51:42,920
Speaker 1: where you have to think about, like these guys I've

927
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:47,680
Speaker 1: been looking at, they like to take these these easy favorites,

928
00:51:47,800 --> 00:51:50,560
Speaker 1: Like last week a lot of them were taking and

929
00:51:50,600 --> 00:51:53,480
Speaker 1: it worked out for him. They were taking in Seattle

930
00:51:53,600 --> 00:51:56,200
Speaker 1: and it worked out. But if you do that every week,

931
00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:57,839
Speaker 1: when if the line looks too good to be true,

932
00:51:57,880 --> 00:51:59,919
Speaker 1: it usually is, like we learned with Caroline the last

933
00:52:00,000 --> 00:52:02,400
Speaker 1: week that that was that was a trap line. There

934
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:04,000
Speaker 1: was a reason they were giving us so many points.

935
00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:06,680
Speaker 1: They were sucking us in Chargers. Okay, so here's what

936
00:52:06,719 --> 00:52:11,760
Speaker 1: I'm doing so far. Chargers, Oakland, Baltimore are three picks

937
00:52:11,800 --> 00:52:14,799
Speaker 1: for sure. And then you you just want to go

938
00:52:14,800 --> 00:52:17,200
Speaker 1: with some chalk here to please um damn, because there's

939
00:52:17,280 --> 00:52:19,239
Speaker 1: chalk I like this week. Tell me the chalk you

940
00:52:19,320 --> 00:52:24,759
Speaker 1: like so I'm a nice chalk spot is Carolina. You

941
00:52:24,840 --> 00:52:27,560
Speaker 1: got a team in the Titans coming in off two

942
00:52:27,560 --> 00:52:31,359
Speaker 1: wins to play a team that just got demolished after

943
00:52:31,520 --> 00:52:34,080
Speaker 1: by a week on the road coming home. It's a

944
00:52:34,120 --> 00:52:37,440
Speaker 1: really good get right spot for Carolina. And I like

945
00:52:37,640 --> 00:52:41,040
Speaker 1: the Eagles coming back home after a big win and

946
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:44,960
Speaker 1: the Bears coming in where most sharps are gonna take

947
00:52:44,960 --> 00:52:47,000
Speaker 1: that five points for the Bears just because the Eagles

948
00:52:47,040 --> 00:52:49,960
Speaker 1: don't look like they're you know, they don't they don't

949
00:52:50,000 --> 00:52:52,000
Speaker 1: trust the was they're saying this is a good value

950
00:52:52,000 --> 00:52:54,640
Speaker 1: here taking the five points. But I got the Eagles

951
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:56,560
Speaker 1: a minus seven for this game, so I think you're

952
00:52:56,600 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 1: getting good values on the Eagles. Oh my god, I

953
00:52:59,200 --> 00:53:01,040
Speaker 1: totally feel like the Bears of the right Side there,

954
00:53:01,239 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 1: But you know what, definitely because that on paper that

955
00:53:04,120 --> 00:53:06,319
Speaker 1: looks like the Bears of the smart side, but it's

956
00:53:06,320 --> 00:53:08,319
Speaker 1: just you have to put the human element to it.

957
00:53:08,440 --> 00:53:11,240
Speaker 1: The team does not believe as a unit in Robiski,

958
00:53:11,520 --> 00:53:13,880
Speaker 1: and that's supposed to be the leader of the team.

959
00:53:13,920 --> 00:53:17,000
Speaker 1: So it's one of those where, like the numbers I

960
00:53:17,000 --> 00:53:19,080
Speaker 1: could see on paper, people are gonna think like this

961
00:53:19,120 --> 00:53:21,680
Speaker 1: is a really smart side ticking the Bears, but I

962
00:53:21,760 --> 00:53:23,560
Speaker 1: think of the human element. I like the Eagles. There,

963
00:53:24,440 --> 00:53:26,800
Speaker 1: you know what I'm with you, I've changed my tune.

964
00:53:27,040 --> 00:53:34,560
Speaker 1: I'm going Carolina Chargers, Eagles, Oakland Baltimore. Now, did Darren

965
00:53:34,600 --> 00:53:36,320
Speaker 1: send in any of his UM picture? You like that?

966
00:53:36,800 --> 00:53:40,399
Speaker 1: So busy Gallo vanting around the world, he doesn't even

967
00:53:40,480 --> 00:53:44,680
Speaker 1: remember that we're doing this podcast. So I get to

968
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:49,960
Speaker 1: make what I like to call the executive decisions UM.

969
00:53:50,040 --> 00:53:51,880
Speaker 1: And then for extra ones, I mean, if we want to,

970
00:53:51,920 --> 00:53:55,160
Speaker 1: like think about switching out any of these for sharp numbers.

971
00:53:56,200 --> 00:53:58,799
Speaker 1: I love the Jags in London, and I also love

972
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:00,640
Speaker 1: the Bucks, but I know we probably don' wanta do

973
00:54:00,680 --> 00:54:03,279
Speaker 1: the Bucks again. But six points is way too many

974
00:54:03,280 --> 00:54:06,560
Speaker 1: points for the Yaws defense to be laying to an

975
00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:10,799
Speaker 1: explosive offense like that. I know the whole Winston turnover thing,

976
00:54:10,880 --> 00:54:13,200
Speaker 1: but it's one of those where, like I said, he

977
00:54:13,280 --> 00:54:15,600
Speaker 1: in the year, it's it's really Russell Wilson on that team,

978
00:54:15,640 --> 00:54:19,360
Speaker 1: and it's just a bunch of pieces. Like their defense.

979
00:54:19,719 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 1: Letting Atlantic get back into the game just shows what

980
00:54:22,080 --> 00:54:24,840
Speaker 1: kind of defense they are. I couldn't agree more. I

981
00:54:24,920 --> 00:54:26,840
Speaker 1: like the box in that spot. I think it's the

982
00:54:28,000 --> 00:54:29,800
Speaker 1: this is the week where you're allowed to bed jamis.

983
00:54:30,040 --> 00:54:31,839
Speaker 1: Last week was the week where it was a bad

984
00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:34,439
Speaker 1: spot where it didn't work out. So though even though

985
00:54:34,480 --> 00:54:38,279
Speaker 1: we were on him, we were unlucky, we got a

986
00:54:38,280 --> 00:54:43,520
Speaker 1: better shot this week. Yeah, Simon Hunter, I like I

987
00:54:43,560 --> 00:54:45,399
Speaker 1: like keeping. We can keep that bucks when we can

988
00:54:45,400 --> 00:54:46,840
Speaker 1: text tomorrow and see if you want to switch that

989
00:54:46,880 --> 00:54:48,439
Speaker 1: one in ang, We'll see what happens after the last

990
00:54:48,520 --> 00:54:52,880
Speaker 1: come out. Yeah, brother, you are keeping us in this

991
00:54:52,960 --> 00:54:58,359
Speaker 1: thing by will and spirit, and I appreciate that. It's

992
00:54:58,400 --> 00:55:00,600
Speaker 1: my pleasure. Man. We're gonna keep keep and better here.

993
00:55:00,600 --> 00:55:02,680
Speaker 1: We got a little three and two weeks so we

994
00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:05,759
Speaker 1: bounced back, so we gotta keep it rolling here. Let's roll.

995
00:55:06,160 --> 00:55:10,080
Speaker 1: Let's go make some money, all right, buddy, Simon Hunter.

996
00:55:10,120 --> 00:55:12,440
Speaker 1: I'll talk to you next week. This has been the

997
00:55:12,600 --> 00:55:16,040
Speaker 1: favorite from the Action Network the podcast. Download the podcast

998
00:55:16,760 --> 00:55:21,920
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts from radio dot Com search for the

999
00:55:21,960 --> 00:55:26,040
Speaker 1: favorites wherever you get your podcast. I am Chad Noman.

1000
00:55:26,719 --> 00:55:28,319
Speaker 1: Until next time, I love you.