1 00:00:10,360 --> 00:00:14,320 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. 2 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:18,599 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Wisn'tal, and I'm Tracy Halloway. So, Tracy, obviously, 3 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:21,640 Speaker 1: a lot of the images in videos that we've seen 4 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 1: out of China over the last week, I mean, I 5 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 1: think it's safe to say they're pretty extraordinary, absolutely incredible. 6 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:29,840 Speaker 1: So I remember, I guess it might have been a 7 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 1: month or two ago someone posted a sign in Beijing 8 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 1: that was critical of the party leadership and the COVID restrictions, 9 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 1: and that alone had like, you know, just d reams 10 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:45,839 Speaker 1: of ink spilled over this one sign that managed to 11 00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:47,880 Speaker 1: be put up in Beijing, and it stayed there for 12 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:51,519 Speaker 1: a little while. But now we have these protests that 13 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 1: have erupted in a number of Chinese cities everywhere from 14 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 1: Beijing to Shanghai and other places, where people are marching 15 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 1: in this streets, they're holding up multiple signs, and the 16 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 1: extraordinary thing is that this has been allowed to happen 17 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 1: at all, allowed to happen, and also the people in 18 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 1: many of these cases are almost certainly taking huge personal risks. 19 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 1: There have been some videos of people calling for you know, 20 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:23,640 Speaker 1: j and Ping to resign, and my understanding of China 21 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 1: is that that is the type of public comment that 22 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 1: could get one in very serious legal jeopardy. Absolutely, so 23 00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:33,920 Speaker 1: this is a fascinating moment in Chinese history. It's a 24 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: fascinating moment from an economic perspective as well, because, of 25 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:41,160 Speaker 1: course China is the world's second biggest economy. It has 26 00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 1: had a number of quite stringent COVID related restrictions over 27 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 1: the past three years or so, and unlike other countries, 28 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 1: it hasn't really eased up all that much. And so 29 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 1: we're seeing this ground swell of populist anger and a 30 00:01:56,840 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 1: lot of criticism over the way the party and specifically 31 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 1: Shi shin Ping, has actually handled this whole situation, right. 32 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 1: I mean, we're coming on, you know, almost three years 33 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 1: now of COVID zero. I first heard of COVID in 34 00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: you know, it's a December here we are. We're recording 35 00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:21,799 Speaker 1: this episode November. It's coming out in December, and uh, 36 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 1: you know, this is extraordinary long time to have life 37 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:29,480 Speaker 1: disrupted in a very extreme way. Of course, the tightness 38 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:32,840 Speaker 1: of the lockdowns has sort of waxed and waned at times, 39 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 1: but it's pretty extreme. In many cases. The efforts to 40 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:38,960 Speaker 1: contain COVID have been quite your cony in and as 41 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 1: you say, the economic situation was already not that great. 42 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 1: Growth is poor. Earlier this year we talked about a 43 00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:49,919 Speaker 1: lot of the problems facing the real estate industry. We also, 44 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:53,240 Speaker 1: of course recently had the Party Congress, so an extraordinary 45 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 1: moment for China in general right now. Yeah, and since 46 00:02:56,639 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 1: you mentioned the Party Congress, you know, I think there 47 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 1: was an expctation that maybe after this big political event 48 00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:05,920 Speaker 1: was out of the way, after all the attention that 49 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:09,920 Speaker 1: had been turned on Shesh and paying basically securing leadership 50 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 1: for life, that after that had passed, maybe some things 51 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:16,080 Speaker 1: would start to change, maybe some of the restrictions would 52 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 1: be eased up a bit. That doesn't seem to have happened, 53 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 1: and so well, there have been some other things that 54 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 1: have happened in the interim, including a fire in a 55 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:28,360 Speaker 1: room she where people have criticized the government as having, 56 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 1: you know, because of the COVID restrictions on this building, 57 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 1: people were unable to escape, and I think ten people 58 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 1: were reported to have died in that fire. That's the 59 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 1: thing that's sort of sparked all of this. But it is, 60 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 1: as you say, the result of three years of major, 61 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:50,120 Speaker 1: major disruptions to people's lives, right, and you mentioned, you know, 62 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:52,760 Speaker 1: there may have been some people might have thought, Okay, 63 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 1: after the Party Congress, then the government can ease up, 64 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 1: perhaps on COVID restrictions. But you know, we talked about 65 00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: this with Dan walk There is still the sort of 66 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 1: brutal math for China of limited healthcare capacity, limited hospital beds, 67 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 1: limited success in a mass vaccination and opening up means 68 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:15,160 Speaker 1: a lot more people will die. And when the government 69 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 1: has sort of made a point about the success it's 70 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:21,440 Speaker 1: had in containing COVID, particularly compared to the rest of 71 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 1: the world, that is a choice the government doesn't want 72 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:27,280 Speaker 1: to make. Well, I mean, the term painting yourself into 73 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 1: a corner kind of springs to mind. And of course 74 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:32,280 Speaker 1: the big question is what can China do now. It's 75 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 1: tied a lot of its political legitimacy to keeping people alive, 76 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 1: which means you have to have these COVID restrictions. So 77 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 1: what can it do in the face of mass unrest? 78 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 1: So we really do have the perfect guest to talk 79 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 1: about this today. Absolutely, we are going to be speaking 80 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:50,600 Speaker 1: with Victor she He is a professor at the School 81 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 1: of Global Policy, and strategy at you see San Diego, 82 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:56,359 Speaker 1: and he is also the author of the new book 83 00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 1: Coalitions of the Week. Victor, thank you so much for 84 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:02,719 Speaker 1: coming on, Thank you for having me, Joe and Tracy. Well, 85 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:05,040 Speaker 1: why don't we just start with the sort of big 86 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:09,280 Speaker 1: picture question, which is how extraordinary from your perspective are 87 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:12,640 Speaker 1: the protests that we've seen across the country. This has 88 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:17,440 Speaker 1: been very, very extraordinary in that these are in person, 89 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:22,440 Speaker 1: on the street protests across multiple major cities of China, 90 00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:24,559 Speaker 1: and this is really something that we have not seen 91 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 1: since so so this is very very striking. Indeed, So 92 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:32,040 Speaker 1: this is actually one thing I wanted to ask you, 93 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 1: which is there is a perception that you know, in 94 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 1: China it doesn't tolerate any descent, but historically, over vast 95 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:46,360 Speaker 1: periods of time, we have had certain protest movements, you know, 96 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 1: student unrest or maybe laborers or farmers. Can you sort 97 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:54,840 Speaker 1: of put what we're seeing now in a historical context? 98 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 1: What is this actually remind you of or are there 99 00:05:57,560 --> 00:06:03,400 Speaker 1: historical analogies or parallels that can reach to to explain this. Yeah, So, 100 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:06,000 Speaker 1: as you point out, indeed, even though in the major 101 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:09,000 Speaker 1: cities we have not seen major protests for quite a 102 00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:13,440 Speaker 1: number of years. There are protests, sit ins, even riots 103 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 1: that take place all the time in China. According to 104 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 1: statistics that we, you know, as outsiders, were able to 105 00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:23,280 Speaker 1: gather from a few years ago, there are tens of 106 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:28,039 Speaker 1: thousands of protests across China. But nonetheless, the vast majority 107 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:31,919 Speaker 1: of protests up until recent days have taken place in 108 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:35,680 Speaker 1: rural areas, smaller cities, maybe medium sized cities. In a 109 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:38,719 Speaker 1: couple of cases, they have tended to you know, really 110 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 1: focused on grievances that are very local, like land seizures, 111 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:47,040 Speaker 1: like benefits that people are not receiving, like a local 112 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:49,840 Speaker 1: abuse of power by the police forces. What we are 113 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 1: seeing today instead as a multi city protests in some 114 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:58,679 Speaker 1: of the largest and politically most important cities in China, 115 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:02,919 Speaker 1: like Shanghai, like Beijing, and the slogans at least of 116 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:07,040 Speaker 1: the protesters are not very specific. There are very general 117 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 1: slogans calling for constitutional reform, calling for democracy, calling for freedom, 118 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 1: as well as the downfall of the Chinese leadership. So 119 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 1: so that's that's uh, you know, very striking and something 120 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:22,560 Speaker 1: that we haven't seen for decades. So I mentioned in 121 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 1: the intro that my perception is that anyone engaging in 122 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 1: these protests is potentially taking big personal legal risk. What 123 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,040 Speaker 1: is the law? What? What what does it say about 124 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,000 Speaker 1: whether you can go out and protest or call for 125 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 1: she shouldn't pink to step down? Is it against the 126 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 1: law to do this? Uh so? Of course, constitutionally, Chinese 127 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:48,000 Speaker 1: citizens have the freedom of speech and the freedom of assembly. However, 128 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 1: both in the constitution and also in the number of 129 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:54,239 Speaker 1: regulations and laws, any subversion of the Chinese Communist Party 130 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:58,840 Speaker 1: is considered illegal, and of course calling for the downfall 131 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 1: of the you know, leadership of the Chinese Communist Party 132 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 1: would would be with fall of foul of these regulations 133 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 1: and laws, right, and everything is always open to significant interpretation, 134 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 1: or at least you know, that seems to have been 135 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 1: the case in Hong Kong with the National Security Law. 136 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 1: It's kind of like it's vague enough that if you 137 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 1: do something that upsets the party or the leadership that 138 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:25,680 Speaker 1: they can crack down on you. But this leads into 139 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 1: another question, which is why are these protests being tolerated 140 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:35,640 Speaker 1: right now? Because, as as you point out, these are 141 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 1: pretty big demonstrations with what would be very inflammatory slogans 142 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 1: and language for the Communist Party, things that are very 143 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 1: critical of She and Ping, calling for democracy and human 144 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 1: rights and freedom. Why are these being allowed to happen? 145 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:56,440 Speaker 1: My read of it is is very tactical so far. 146 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 1: In fact, today we've seen a lot of tightening up. Uh. 147 00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 1: You have to remember that since the Chinese government, of 148 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 1: course has not been standing still, they've been doing an 149 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 1: incredible amount of research, looking at experiences overseas, looking at 150 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 1: domestic cases of disturbances, and really trying to engineer the 151 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:21,719 Speaker 1: best response to protest movements over time. And I think 152 00:09:21,760 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 1: one of the lessons that they've learned is that if 153 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 1: you know, there really is a high level of dissatisfaction, 154 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:29,240 Speaker 1: which is you know, which is the case here in 155 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:32,200 Speaker 1: China after three years of lockdown there, there is indeed 156 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:35,559 Speaker 1: a very high level of dissatisfaction among the people. At 157 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 1: the first sign of trouble, you crack down using very 158 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 1: bruto forces that could invite backlash protests. Uh. And I 159 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:48,679 Speaker 1: think they tactically allow, you know, at least for one 160 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:51,960 Speaker 1: or two day period for people around China to protests, 161 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:54,000 Speaker 1: to even post things online. I mean, one of the 162 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 1: puzzles is, you know, why are they able to post 163 00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:59,720 Speaker 1: things online and even you know, retweet them and so 164 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:01,960 Speaker 1: and so. Fourth part of it could be tactical. Today 165 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 1: we have certainly seen today a lot more tightening, a 166 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 1: lot greater police forces. It does take time for the 167 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 1: police to deploy, get organized, to figure out a coherent response. 168 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 1: I think kind of the extent and the scale of 169 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:22,079 Speaker 1: the protests also has been very surprising even to the authorities. 170 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 1: Today we're seeing a more coherent response. So I guess 171 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:49,200 Speaker 1: another question is why now why in November December. Obviously 172 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:52,560 Speaker 1: the COVID zero lockdowns have been you know, happening for 173 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:58,079 Speaker 1: almost three years uninterrupted, But why now, Yeah, So the 174 00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:00,719 Speaker 1: immediate trigger, of course, is you point out, is the 175 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:05,440 Speaker 1: fire in Urumchi. But one of the potential trigger for 176 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 1: that event as well if other events we've seen online 177 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 1: where the neighborhood committees have barred people in their homes 178 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:16,040 Speaker 1: and not let them leave their homes, sometimes with very 179 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:20,440 Speaker 1: draconian measures like you know, putting like a rebar across 180 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:24,080 Speaker 1: people's doors and so and so forth. That was triggered 181 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:27,320 Speaker 1: by a relaxation of COVID policy that was announced on 182 00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 1: November eleven. So part of that relaxation was to switch 183 00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 1: from a seven day offsite quarantine in one of these 184 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:41,200 Speaker 1: giant quarantine warehouses, Uh, switch it into fewer days of 185 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 1: that to five days, but then more days of mandatory 186 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 1: in home quarantine. But for the local authorities, whose resources 187 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 1: are extremely stretched already, they took shortcuts. And he's like, well, 188 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 1: how do we make sure that people don't leave their 189 00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:58,280 Speaker 1: homes when they're supposed to. Let's put a rebar across 190 00:11:58,320 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 1: the door to make sure the door that's doesn't open. 191 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:03,680 Speaker 1: In some of the wealthier localities like Shanghai, they've put 192 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 1: electronic monitors outside of people's doores to to monitor whether 193 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:11,680 Speaker 1: doors get open. That's that's a bit more humane. But 194 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 1: in some of these poor localities they have resorted to 195 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:18,560 Speaker 1: some very crude measures um and that you know, certainly 196 00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:22,680 Speaker 1: has pushed people's level of frustration and anger over the 197 00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 1: edge in many cases. So so ironically, I think it 198 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:30,440 Speaker 1: partly was triggered by this relaxation of COVID policies, which 199 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 1: you know, people were right after the twenty Party Congress 200 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:36,959 Speaker 1: that there has been some relaxation. So for foreigners traveling 201 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 1: to China, they don't have to quarantine for as many days. 202 00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 1: They don't have to test us often, et cetera. So 203 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 1: just on this note, I mean historically, when there happened 204 00:12:47,160 --> 00:12:52,520 Speaker 1: protests in China, one of the playbooks that gets trotted 205 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:56,440 Speaker 1: out very very quickly by the ruling party is blame 206 00:12:56,559 --> 00:13:01,360 Speaker 1: for an influence and blame local officials for bungling you know, 207 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 1: Beijing's Grand Plan. The plan was fine, but the local 208 00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:08,120 Speaker 1: officials just implemented it poorly and it's all their fault. 209 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 1: Is that a? Is that the kind of thing we're 210 00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:13,520 Speaker 1: going to see here? Is that the playbook that we're 211 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:17,280 Speaker 1: going to see and then be do local officials deserve 212 00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:21,559 Speaker 1: some of the blame here? Yeah? So we are seeing 213 00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:27,080 Speaker 1: today some commentaries not from official Chinese government websites yet, 214 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:30,760 Speaker 1: but certainly unofficially they have a lot of influencers, let's 215 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 1: just say online they are saying no foreign hostile forces 216 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 1: are behind these protests. Of course, that's ridiculous because there 217 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:42,079 Speaker 1: are no foreigners left in China after three years of lockdown. 218 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 1: The number of foreigners in China you know, have been 219 00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:49,079 Speaker 1: cut by or something like that. So even if foreign 220 00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:52,319 Speaker 1: hostile forces would like to you know, do something that 221 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 1: they literally cannot do it in terms of local officials 222 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:57,880 Speaker 1: I think. You know, of course they bear some of 223 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:01,199 Speaker 1: the blame because some very prudent meass have been implemented 224 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:06,800 Speaker 1: by them. But for local level community workers, remember, you know, 225 00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:09,960 Speaker 1: at the grassroots level, the Change governments that they have 226 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:13,720 Speaker 1: something called residential committees. But these are not people who 227 00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:18,199 Speaker 1: are fully paid for by the Chinese governments, oftentimes their retirees. 228 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:21,960 Speaker 1: They get a very modest stipend a few hundred dollars 229 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:23,840 Speaker 1: a month, but they don't get the full pay and 230 00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 1: benefits of Chinese government officials. But for the past three 231 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:31,280 Speaker 1: years they have been the main force implementing public policies 232 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 1: in China, you know, instituting the lockdown, doing testings, delivering 233 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:41,320 Speaker 1: food and sometimes even social services to distressed households. There 234 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 1: are stretched to the brink um, you know, the Change 235 00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:47,920 Speaker 1: government transfer some resources to the local level. There's there's 236 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:52,040 Speaker 1: free food for these community workers. Sometimes there there's bonus pay. 237 00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 1: But also the other factor is that at the local 238 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:57,520 Speaker 1: level local governments they don't have a lot of money. 239 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:01,920 Speaker 1: Revenue is down close to ten percent at the local level, 240 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 1: and even civil service pay is being cut much less 241 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 1: the pay of these community level workers, so they're stretched 242 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 1: beyond other initial capacity, and one can understand why they 243 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:20,280 Speaker 1: take shortcuts when they're asked to institute very onerous you know, 244 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 1: to the new policies, you know, really ask a lot 245 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 1: of them because they have to track at the household 246 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 1: level who's supposed to stay at home, who's who has 247 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 1: a freedom of movement, and that's just not something they 248 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 1: have the capacity to do in many cases. So this 249 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:38,120 Speaker 1: leads into something else that I wanted to ask you, 250 00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:40,440 Speaker 1: And I love this conversation because it's one of those 251 00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 1: where you you answer something and then I immediately have 252 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 1: like five other questions. But just on this note, I 253 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:51,760 Speaker 1: think people outside of China maybe don't necessarily appreciate how 254 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 1: much manpower it actually takes to have these kinds of 255 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 1: COVID restrictions, where you know, if you're in a big 256 00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 1: apartment building, there is a group of people who are 257 00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 1: charged with making sure that people aren't going in and 258 00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 1: out when they're not allowed to, and that people are 259 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,880 Speaker 1: you know, reporting their test results and that everything is 260 00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 1: sort of going to plan. And then also when you 261 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 1: have these kind of protest movements, it takes a lot 262 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 1: of manpower to police and potentially suppress them. So today, 263 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:25,240 Speaker 1: for instance, I'm seeing images of police officers who are 264 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 1: you know, taking protesters phones individually and deleting photos off 265 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:34,320 Speaker 1: of them of the demonstrations, which is similar to what 266 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:37,040 Speaker 1: we saw in Hong Kong as well. So can that 267 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:41,320 Speaker 1: kind of I guess, manpower or that kind of like 268 00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:45,000 Speaker 1: you need an army of workers basically doing this. Can 269 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 1: that be maintained or is there a chance that eventually, 270 00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 1: you know, the people who are enforcing a lot of 271 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:53,520 Speaker 1: these rules are just going to say, you know what, 272 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 1: it's not worth it anymore, and I'm out. Yeah, I 273 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:02,560 Speaker 1: think local fiscal stress can cause some kind of issues 274 00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:05,359 Speaker 1: down the road, and I don't think we're quite there yet. 275 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:10,480 Speaker 1: But you know, basically grassroots level community workers and police 276 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 1: forces who are official civil servants actually are very limited 277 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:20,240 Speaker 1: in numbers and is certainly not sufficient to carry out 278 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 1: all the tasks that the government asked them to do today, 279 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 1: you know, which include enforcing quarantine, providing social services, etcetera, etcetera. 280 00:17:28,480 --> 00:17:31,960 Speaker 1: So the Change government has had to rely on these 281 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:37,480 Speaker 1: informal workers quasi formal workers at the community level for quarantine, 282 00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 1: but also in terms of repression, there is a whole 283 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:47,280 Speaker 1: entire you know, base of manpower who are quasi formal 284 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:51,400 Speaker 1: enforcers for the Chinese governments, their contract workers. They get 285 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:54,440 Speaker 1: hired sometimes even on the spot. So I've seen footages 286 00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 1: where in Juhan to to deal with the protests, the 287 00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 1: Chinese government just gather a bunch of guys off the 288 00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:02,359 Speaker 1: pay them and say okay, you all get three woman 289 00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 1: b a day and they become enforcers for the Chinese government. 290 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:10,399 Speaker 1: That all works okay, as long as the money is there. 291 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:14,240 Speaker 1: But at the local level, not every local government can 292 00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:17,080 Speaker 1: come up with the money at the drop of a 293 00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 1: hat anymore, especially in tier three tier four cities in 294 00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 1: China outside of provincial capitals, the fiscal resources are really stretched. 295 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:30,639 Speaker 1: Land sales have collapsed, as you guys have discussed on 296 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:33,919 Speaker 1: the show already, that has been a major source of 297 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:37,359 Speaker 1: discretionary spending at the local level. Now, if there's a 298 00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:40,640 Speaker 1: major protests at a second tier of third tier city, 299 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:43,280 Speaker 1: they have to write a note to the central government saying, oh, hey, 300 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 1: you know we have protests, Please give us some money 301 00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:48,080 Speaker 1: so we can pay for people to quell the protests. 302 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:51,160 Speaker 1: That may not happen fast enough, and we really could 303 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:54,560 Speaker 1: see some things getting out of control. Fortunately for the 304 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 1: Chinese government in places like Beijing and Shanghai, there's plenty 305 00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 1: of money. Police forces in these places, as we're seeing, 306 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:05,679 Speaker 1: are enormous, especially in Beijing. There are just tens and 307 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 1: tens of thousands of different kinds of police forces in 308 00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 1: the immediate immediate vicinity of the city, and some of 309 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 1: them are being mobilized right now. You know you sort 310 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:18,919 Speaker 1: of anticipated my next question, but can you talk more 311 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:23,000 Speaker 1: about the nexus of local government economic stress and the 312 00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:25,920 Speaker 1: decline in real estate because I think we we've talked 313 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:28,200 Speaker 1: about it in a few different episodes in the past. 314 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:32,800 Speaker 1: How important real estate sales or land sales specifically are 315 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:36,919 Speaker 1: two local finances, But can you explain that mechanism, like 316 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:39,679 Speaker 1: what is the role that local land sales play? And 317 00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 1: then how much stress have the local governments come under 318 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 1: thanks to the well known property bus that's going on. Yeah, so, 319 00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:48,280 Speaker 1: so there's an intimate link. I mean, the first thing 320 00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:51,240 Speaker 1: to realize about China is that despite the fact that 321 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:54,000 Speaker 1: we talk about, you know, Chinese industrial policies and all 322 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:58,919 Speaker 1: these great tech companies in China, these tech and industrial companies, 323 00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:02,520 Speaker 1: they only benefit a small handful of cities in China. 324 00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:06,479 Speaker 1: So a lot of the industrial activities concentrated in cities 325 00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:10,679 Speaker 1: in Guangdong, in Jorjian Province, in Shanghai obviously, and of 326 00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:14,919 Speaker 1: course you have political financial activities in Beijing. Outside of 327 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:18,960 Speaker 1: these key cities. You remember, China has like four hundred cities, right, 328 00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:21,920 Speaker 1: so for the vast majority of cities in China, there's 329 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:24,359 Speaker 1: really not much going on in some of these cities 330 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:27,480 Speaker 1: in western China and northeastern China and some parts of 331 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:31,679 Speaker 1: the Southwest. And so for those governments, in order to 332 00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:34,720 Speaker 1: generate GP growth, what they need to do is to 333 00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 1: sell land to property developers. Property developers build the land, 334 00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:42,400 Speaker 1: and then also for the government, they use the current 335 00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 1: revenue stream from selling land as well as the prospect 336 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:50,360 Speaker 1: of land value in the future as collateral to get 337 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:54,200 Speaker 1: loans from the banks to build infrastructure. So using current 338 00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:57,440 Speaker 1: and future land sales as a way to finance infrastructure 339 00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:02,199 Speaker 1: building is the main economy model for the majority of 340 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:05,000 Speaker 1: cities in China. The problem, of course, recently is because 341 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:08,720 Speaker 1: of the leveraging policies and COVID lockdown, property sales have 342 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 1: been negative for quite a few months now, and then 343 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 1: that means land sales have completely dropped off, you know, 344 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:20,679 Speaker 1: down a year to date, and so then for the 345 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 1: local government's their ability to build infrastructure also has diminished 346 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:30,160 Speaker 1: quite substantially, and this has caused economic slowdown across many 347 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 1: localities in China. One other dynamic I'm curious about, and 348 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 1: maybe it's totally off the mark here, but I seem 349 00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:42,040 Speaker 1: to recall that at the recent People's Congress, one of 350 00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:43,679 Speaker 1: the and I can't remember his name, but one of 351 00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:47,560 Speaker 1: the Chinese Communist Party officials that was elevated was perceived 352 00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:51,920 Speaker 1: as having been rewarded for successfully implementing a hard lockdown 353 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:55,920 Speaker 1: in I think it was Shanghai. And I'm curious whether 354 00:21:56,280 --> 00:22:00,520 Speaker 1: regional chiefs others sort of see this dynamic and sort 355 00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:03,360 Speaker 1: of and when you're thinking about the sort of draconian 356 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:06,920 Speaker 1: approach to containing COVID, whether there's sort of an inter 357 00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:11,800 Speaker 1: regional competition among local officials who perceived this as a 358 00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:16,640 Speaker 1: moment to elevate their standing within the National Communist Party. Yeah, 359 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:18,960 Speaker 1: so I think you're referring to Yin Lei, who's a 360 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:23,520 Speaker 1: public health expert, former party chief of Citron, who has 361 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:27,040 Speaker 1: been made the party sector of Beijing. I believe this, 362 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 1: by the way, actually will be a big test for him, 363 00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:32,240 Speaker 1: because of course part of a party chief's job is 364 00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:35,359 Speaker 1: to handle instability. Yeah, so, so I think you have 365 00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:39,199 Speaker 1: cases like that, people getting promoted for pursuing very draconian 366 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 1: lockdown policies. But in general, I think the problem is 367 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:45,679 Speaker 1: that if if you look at the new regulations issued 368 00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:49,960 Speaker 1: on November eleventh, the twenty measures, even though it's signals 369 00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:53,480 Speaker 1: some kind of relaxation, at the same time, it also 370 00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:59,359 Speaker 1: basically required local officials to still remain very vigilant about 371 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 1: the spread out of COVID, still holding them responsible for 372 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:08,439 Speaker 1: very rapid proliferation of COVID cases. Of course, with Amicron 373 00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:12,359 Speaker 1: that is just going to happen. With any degree of relaxation, 374 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:16,240 Speaker 1: inevitably you will have rapid spread of COVID. So local 375 00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:19,440 Speaker 1: officials are still very afraid that they would be held 376 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:23,920 Speaker 1: responsible for rapid spread of COVID under their charge in 377 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:27,720 Speaker 1: the jurisdiction that that they control, and therefore in many 378 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:31,080 Speaker 1: cases they have still ordered their underlings to be extremely 379 00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:35,000 Speaker 1: vigilant against the spread of COVID, which then, of course 380 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:37,520 Speaker 1: has led to a lot of these crude measures that 381 00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:41,000 Speaker 1: people are protesting about. So so I think what is 382 00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:44,760 Speaker 1: required is a very clear signal from the central government 383 00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:47,240 Speaker 1: that you know, indeed, we're not going to hold people 384 00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:50,880 Speaker 1: responsible anymore for the rapid spread of COVID. And despite 385 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:53,800 Speaker 1: you know, various rumors that are swirling around that you know, 386 00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:56,800 Speaker 1: you know, some investment banks are talking about, I just 387 00:23:56,880 --> 00:24:00,800 Speaker 1: don't see that happening in the immediate future, because, uh, 388 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:04,560 Speaker 1: such a clear signal would really go back against sort 389 00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:08,720 Speaker 1: of three years of very strict COVID policies which the 390 00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:12,040 Speaker 1: Chinese government has told the world but especially the people 391 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:16,000 Speaker 1: of China, that the stringent policies have been China's model 392 00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:19,639 Speaker 1: has worked against the spread of COVID, and to completely 393 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,639 Speaker 1: go against that, I think would be pretty un usual. 394 00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:43,120 Speaker 1: I want to dig more into what sort of happens 395 00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:46,000 Speaker 1: from here, but before we do, just going back to 396 00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:49,800 Speaker 1: the question of why are these protests being allowed to 397 00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:53,280 Speaker 1: happen now? I mean, one of the theories, and again 398 00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,120 Speaker 1: it's something that tends to pop up when there are 399 00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,400 Speaker 1: signs of dissent. One of the theories is that, well, 400 00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:04,440 Speaker 1: maybe there are various factions of political elites who are 401 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,840 Speaker 1: actually allowing these to happen and maybe signaling that they 402 00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:11,040 Speaker 1: are unhappy with she Ji and Ping's leadership or something 403 00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:16,840 Speaker 1: like that. This is basically your expertise China's elite. So 404 00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:22,400 Speaker 1: do you buy that viewpoint? Is that possibility here? I 405 00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:26,040 Speaker 1: don't buy that there. I mean, look, there are very 406 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:29,719 Speaker 1: dissatisfied people within the Chinese government, but they're not the 407 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:34,040 Speaker 1: ones who are in charge anymore. As you know, people 408 00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:37,720 Speaker 1: who are not in she Jimping's factions happen by and 409 00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:41,080 Speaker 1: large removed, you know, from the Chinese government forced into 410 00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:45,399 Speaker 1: retirement and the new leadership which has taken power after 411 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:49,080 Speaker 1: the Twentie Party Congress. They're they're almost all uh she 412 00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:52,480 Speaker 1: Jimping followers with a record of being very loyal to 413 00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:55,600 Speaker 1: she Jimping. I really think this is a matter of 414 00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 1: the authorities being surprised, but then also tactically not to 415 00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:04,960 Speaker 1: join the most bruto tools at their disposal immediately for 416 00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:08,040 Speaker 1: fear of a backlash protests. What I do find a 417 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,879 Speaker 1: little bit odd is is how people are able to 418 00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:17,880 Speaker 1: post footages of protests slogans in various forms on online platforms. 419 00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:21,880 Speaker 1: I mean, those are supposed to be censored very strictly, clearly, 420 00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:25,480 Speaker 1: at least for a day or two. It has not 421 00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:29,679 Speaker 1: been very strict censorship of this content. Perhaps that is 422 00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 1: going to tighten, but certainly we have We've had a 423 00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:36,280 Speaker 1: lot of very deep dissatisfaction from the tech industry in China, 424 00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:38,080 Speaker 1: and I do wonder if that has something to do 425 00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:41,240 Speaker 1: with it. Going back to you know, we started this 426 00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:45,800 Speaker 1: discussion putting these protests in historical context. Do protests make 427 00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:49,840 Speaker 1: changes happen? And how does the government respond because obviously 428 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:55,320 Speaker 1: there's no electoral electoral democracy, so you can't easily switch 429 00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:58,160 Speaker 1: out the government, but there's you know, you imagine there's 430 00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:03,520 Speaker 1: some feedback mechanism. How historically has the Chinese government adjusted 431 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:07,280 Speaker 1: policies in response to protests and what could it look 432 00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:12,240 Speaker 1: like here given the self imposed COVID zero constraints. Yeah, 433 00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:15,560 Speaker 1: so historically, you know, for some of these protests are 434 00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:19,399 Speaker 1: that are narrow and focus and ask for very specific things. 435 00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:22,720 Speaker 1: Protesters have had some success. You know, In fact, there's 436 00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:25,880 Speaker 1: a saying in China that you know, if you don't protest, 437 00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:28,040 Speaker 1: you're not going to get a result. If you organize 438 00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:30,240 Speaker 1: a small protest, you get a small result. If you 439 00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:34,360 Speaker 1: organize a big protest and you'll get major results. Uh So, 440 00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:37,159 Speaker 1: this is certainly a case of major protests. At the 441 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:40,680 Speaker 1: local level, we are seeing some concessions already, at least 442 00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:42,879 Speaker 1: for now. You know, of course, some of these concessions 443 00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,919 Speaker 1: can go away after a few days. At some of 444 00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 1: the elite universities, for example at Chinghua University, Peaking universities, 445 00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:53,919 Speaker 1: that there there has been some relaxation and COVID policies, 446 00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:56,640 Speaker 1: The dorms have opened up, people can move a bit 447 00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:59,399 Speaker 1: more freely. All that can be taken away. Of course, 448 00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 1: you know, at the neighborhood level, people are just taking 449 00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:05,280 Speaker 1: down the barricades themselves. No one's really stopping them. So 450 00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:08,199 Speaker 1: I think even if the central policies do not change 451 00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:10,840 Speaker 1: the factor, I think sort of facts on the ground 452 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:15,159 Speaker 1: maybe shifting that we could see kind of you know, 453 00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:19,000 Speaker 1: medium term gradual relaxation of COVID policies, as people take 454 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,400 Speaker 1: matters in their own hands, and as the government does 455 00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:27,600 Speaker 1: not try to re institute very draconian lockdown policies. Of course, 456 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:31,520 Speaker 1: that will depend on the trajectory of COVID spreading. If 457 00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:33,840 Speaker 1: COVID really becomes out of hand and that we have 458 00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:39,560 Speaker 1: a large number of serious cases popping up, China's capacity 459 00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:42,840 Speaker 1: to treat serious COVID cases is very limited, even in 460 00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:45,960 Speaker 1: major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, so that could force 461 00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:48,720 Speaker 1: the authorities to go back. The other thing that I think, 462 00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:52,480 Speaker 1: unfortunately will happen is that the authorities are of course 463 00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:57,160 Speaker 1: taking very careful records of the protesters and especially the 464 00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,640 Speaker 1: protest leaders. They know who they are, and there will 465 00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:04,480 Speaker 1: be a wave of arrest in the coming days. So 466 00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:08,160 Speaker 1: one of the criticisms that is sort of bubbling to 467 00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:12,000 Speaker 1: the surface right now, given the fact that COVID zero 468 00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 1: restrictions have gone on for something like three years now, 469 00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:19,640 Speaker 1: and given this outbreak of dissent, one of the criticisms 470 00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:27,040 Speaker 1: is that China's government basically squandered three years of preparation 471 00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:30,840 Speaker 1: time to get its house in order and maybe start 472 00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:35,240 Speaker 1: thinking about what an exit from COVID zero actually looks like, 473 00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,960 Speaker 1: and that it doesn't seem like they had a viable 474 00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:42,120 Speaker 1: exit plan in place. Maybe they were too focused on 475 00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:44,880 Speaker 1: the National Party Congress and things going on with Chit 476 00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:49,040 Speaker 1: and Ping and things like that. But why why does 477 00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:52,200 Speaker 1: it seem like there hasn't been much thought given to 478 00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:56,320 Speaker 1: how to actually start to wind down some of these restrictions. 479 00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:59,280 Speaker 1: We saw a little bit of movement after the Party Congress, 480 00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:01,920 Speaker 1: as you pointed out, but it doesn't seem like she 481 00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:04,440 Speaker 1: shin Ping or anyone from the party has ever gone 482 00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:09,240 Speaker 1: out and said here are our steps to reopening. Yeah. No, 483 00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:13,760 Speaker 1: I think that is a big puzzle, especially in the 484 00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:18,680 Speaker 1: vaccination front. China has had a vaccination campaign, a couple 485 00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,480 Speaker 1: of rounds of it, and you know, of course, the 486 00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:24,640 Speaker 1: vast majority of people in China have been vaccinated, but 487 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:30,480 Speaker 1: the vaccination and booster rates among elderly population remains very low, 488 00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:35,440 Speaker 1: and so instead of using its vast propaganda, publicity, grassroots 489 00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:41,040 Speaker 1: level capacity to to persuade the elderly population to get vaccinated, 490 00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:44,040 Speaker 1: the Change government has not done too much on that front, 491 00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,640 Speaker 1: at least not since so there was a round of 492 00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:50,800 Speaker 1: vaccination in late The other thing that's puzzling is that 493 00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:54,640 Speaker 1: China runs a massive trade surplus, but at the same 494 00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:58,760 Speaker 1: time it refuses to approve any of the Western vaccines, 495 00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:02,200 Speaker 1: the mr and A vaccine, and instead has focused on 496 00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:06,800 Speaker 1: industrial policies to to develop China's own vaccines. And that's 497 00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:09,240 Speaker 1: very puzzling because you know, even if China were to 498 00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:13,280 Speaker 1: import mRNA vaccine for a few years, I'm sure within 499 00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:16,720 Speaker 1: a couple more years China will have developed pretty effective 500 00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:21,520 Speaker 1: mRNA vaccine of its own, given its its own biotech capacity. 501 00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:24,240 Speaker 1: So for a few years, you spend a few billion 502 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:28,640 Speaker 1: dollars buying Western vaccines from a trade balance perspective, is 503 00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:32,320 Speaker 1: really a small drop in China's vast trade surplus bucket. 504 00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,960 Speaker 1: Yet the Chinese government has consistently refused to do so, 505 00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:39,080 Speaker 1: and the latest, you know, after Shultz visit, Finally, you know, 506 00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:42,440 Speaker 1: foreigners in China, which you know now number in in 507 00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:45,760 Speaker 1: just a few thousands, can get the m RNA vaccines, 508 00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:49,040 Speaker 1: but no one else can. That's that's really really puzzling, 509 00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:53,040 Speaker 1: and it shows that the Chinese government makes policies according 510 00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:57,080 Speaker 1: to its own logic, not according to even public health needs, 511 00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:00,200 Speaker 1: and certainly not strictly according to the needs of its 512 00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:05,920 Speaker 1: population all the time. So my impression is, you know, 513 00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:10,000 Speaker 1: if you get three doses of the sinovac vaccine, it's 514 00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:14,600 Speaker 1: actually reasonably effective compared to m r n A. So 515 00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,880 Speaker 1: in some respects, the focus on foreign vaccines is kind 516 00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:19,959 Speaker 1: of a red herring, but it does beg the question 517 00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:23,120 Speaker 1: why China hasn't. You know, we talk a lot about 518 00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:26,800 Speaker 1: the benefits of a centralized economy and a centralized society 519 00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:29,920 Speaker 1: in many ways. But why why didn't China just you know, 520 00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:34,120 Speaker 1: tell people go out and get vaccinated, and if you 521 00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:37,760 Speaker 1: get vaccinated, maybe some of these restrictions start to ease 522 00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:40,520 Speaker 1: off of it. It doesn't seem like a carrot was 523 00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,160 Speaker 1: ever offered, and frankly, it doesn't seem like there was 524 00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:48,400 Speaker 1: much of a stick to force people to get vaccinated either. Yeah. Well, 525 00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:51,240 Speaker 1: so that there were some carrots being offered in late 526 00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:57,840 Speaker 1: when the Sinovac first rolled out, and so that a 527 00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:01,520 Speaker 1: wave of vaccination had pretty highs access rates, even among 528 00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:05,080 Speaker 1: the elderly population. But you know, as you pointed out, 529 00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:08,880 Speaker 1: for signal back to work reasonably well. Although although I 530 00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:10,840 Speaker 1: have to say, there isn't like a ton of data 531 00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:15,080 Speaker 1: on that, um, you know, there has you know, I 532 00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:17,800 Speaker 1: forgot whether people have to be triple boosted or you know, 533 00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:21,120 Speaker 1: get four shots or three shots, And there has not 534 00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:25,120 Speaker 1: been a concerted effort to get the elderly population to 535 00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:29,440 Speaker 1: get those booster shots. And that is indeed puzzling, especially puzzling. 536 00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:32,600 Speaker 1: You know that actually even when it made sense in 537 00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:35,560 Speaker 1: the run up to the twenty Party Congress or you know, 538 00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:39,320 Speaker 1: certainly immediately afterward, it would have made sense to immediately 539 00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:44,600 Speaker 1: launch a campaign to boost people, especially the elderly's, but 540 00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:47,400 Speaker 1: we have not seen that. And of course there's this 541 00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:50,760 Speaker 1: interesting fact that the elderly's are the most drawn to 542 00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:54,600 Speaker 1: government propaganda, you know. So if you look at kind 543 00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:57,880 Speaker 1: on on weve ball, you know who clicks on Chinese 544 00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:00,920 Speaker 1: government messaging the most. They tend to be the elderly 545 00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:04,160 Speaker 1: population who trusts the government the most. And so a 546 00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:10,040 Speaker 1: concerted government propaganda campaign probably would have had a significant effectiveness. 547 00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:13,600 Speaker 1: The Chinese goverman did not do that. I want to 548 00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:16,440 Speaker 1: go back to the economy for a moment, and of 549 00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:19,960 Speaker 1: course we've talked about the real estate bust and the 550 00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:22,440 Speaker 1: fiscal impact that that's having, and we've talked about that 551 00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:26,000 Speaker 1: on passed episodes. As you mentioned, one of the things 552 00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:28,640 Speaker 1: that's been working very well for the Chinese economy is 553 00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:31,640 Speaker 1: the exports, and it's just running an absolutely enormous current 554 00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:35,160 Speaker 1: account surplus right now, partly due to exports, but also 555 00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:38,400 Speaker 1: probably because it's not importing that much oil these days 556 00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:42,040 Speaker 1: with the lockdowns. But even on the exports side, maybe 557 00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:44,640 Speaker 1: some signs that things are creaking. It is a report 558 00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:48,760 Speaker 1: that came out I believe today again November about supply 559 00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,640 Speaker 1: curtail mints for Apple, which is almost you know, back 560 00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:53,520 Speaker 1: to the future. One of the first topics that we 561 00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:56,160 Speaker 1: discussed on this show three years ago is what would 562 00:34:56,160 --> 00:35:00,480 Speaker 1: it mean for Apple's supply chain, but just more broadly economy. 563 00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:05,400 Speaker 1: Three years of disruptions, three years of various in person 564 00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:09,880 Speaker 1: service things like restaurants and other services not taking place 565 00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:14,160 Speaker 1: as normal. What's this episode going to do to the 566 00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:18,680 Speaker 1: Chinese economy and the sort of trajectory of where it goes? Yeah, no, 567 00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:22,280 Speaker 1: I think um. This is part of the reason why 568 00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:24,840 Speaker 1: we're seeing so many young people coming out the streets 569 00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:29,040 Speaker 1: and protesting, because the prospects for many of them is 570 00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:31,920 Speaker 1: not good. You know, as we've seen in this u 571 00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:36,520 Speaker 1: S data, when you graduate from college at a time 572 00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:41,760 Speaker 1: of economic recession, it affects the entire career trajectories of people. 573 00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:43,839 Speaker 1: You know, if they don't find that first job, they 574 00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,760 Speaker 1: don't get on the career ladder, you know, their ability 575 00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,000 Speaker 1: to find jobs in future is effected, the pay goes 576 00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:52,879 Speaker 1: up more slowly, etcetera, etcetera. This is happening to an 577 00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:56,840 Speaker 1: entire generation of people in China, especially those who do 578 00:35:56,960 --> 00:36:01,600 Speaker 1: not major in electrical engineering, or computer science. I mean, 579 00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:03,799 Speaker 1: I think for the CS and w E people, they 580 00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:07,520 Speaker 1: can still find jobs in defense, in the tech industry, etcetera. 581 00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:10,520 Speaker 1: But for people you know, who are majoring in social 582 00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:14,560 Speaker 1: sciences and the humanities, who typically would go into some 583 00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,200 Speaker 1: of these service sector jobs, you know, helping a restaurant 584 00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:24,480 Speaker 1: market their food, helping deliver various kinds of services, legal services, etcetera. 585 00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:28,600 Speaker 1: All of these industries are suffering tremendously because of the lockdown, 586 00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:33,520 Speaker 1: because of how poorly the Chinese economy is doing. You know, 587 00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:37,720 Speaker 1: of course, the Chinese economy as a whole did okay 588 00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:41,759 Speaker 1: one because of stimulus in the West, in the US 589 00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:45,680 Speaker 1: and in Europe, which bolster demanding these economies for a 590 00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:49,839 Speaker 1: couple of years. But as uh, you know, that is 591 00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:53,840 Speaker 1: fading away in the West, a demand for Chinese goods 592 00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:57,839 Speaker 1: also has fallen, and so across the board, you know, 593 00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:01,399 Speaker 1: China will face some economic head winds in the next 594 00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:03,920 Speaker 1: few months, and so I think, you know, of course, 595 00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:08,279 Speaker 1: the Chinese government is trying to counteract by relaxing property policies, 596 00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:11,359 Speaker 1: and now all these loans going to property developers, that 597 00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:15,239 Speaker 1: of course only helps them complete the projects that have 598 00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:20,880 Speaker 1: been ongoing it doesn't necessarily stimulate demand to buy properties. 599 00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:25,080 Speaker 1: I think for Chinese people, you know, the investment demand 600 00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:27,719 Speaker 1: has dried up to some extent because people realize that 601 00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:31,359 Speaker 1: there's just way more supplied than demand, and the what's 602 00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:35,000 Speaker 1: called heart demand, so demand from news new household formation 603 00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:39,840 Speaker 1: that has slowed down tremendously also because of youth unemployment 604 00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:44,000 Speaker 1: over right now, and it could be getting worse in fact. 605 00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:47,319 Speaker 1: So for a lot of these graduates of social sciences 606 00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:50,520 Speaker 1: and humanities, the job prospects are very dim. They can 607 00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,000 Speaker 1: work for the government, but the government in many cases 608 00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:55,960 Speaker 1: will send them to the rural areas, you know, to 609 00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:59,839 Speaker 1: to village in western China, somewhere where where they live 610 00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:03,279 Speaker 1: in uh, you know, the conditions that they're not used to. Fore. 611 00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:06,239 Speaker 1: She didn't paining that's perfectly fine, perfectly normal, because he 612 00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:09,600 Speaker 1: himself went through that. But I think for this generation 613 00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:14,120 Speaker 1: of Chinese who grew up amiss very high economic growth 614 00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:18,080 Speaker 1: initially a lot of hope for the future, unemployment or 615 00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:21,480 Speaker 1: this kind of you know, government made employment are not 616 00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:26,080 Speaker 1: very attractive. Victor. She thank you so much for coming 617 00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:29,240 Speaker 1: on oud lot, thank you for having thanks Victor. Picture 618 00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:49,480 Speaker 1: that was fascinating. Yeah, that was really excellent, Thanks Tracy. 619 00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:52,839 Speaker 1: I really enjoyed talking to Victor and that helped clear 620 00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:54,680 Speaker 1: up a lot of things in my head. But you know, 621 00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:58,160 Speaker 1: just to start, like this idea of you know, it's 622 00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:01,440 Speaker 1: not just the sort of three years of COVID zero 623 00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:04,960 Speaker 1: and lockdowns and disruptions, etcetera on the property, but this 624 00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:09,759 Speaker 1: idea of like a generation of younger Chinese students and 625 00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:13,120 Speaker 1: graduate who may not have or may see that their 626 00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:16,200 Speaker 1: future is not going to be what they expected because 627 00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:18,719 Speaker 1: of this huge disruption and slow down is like a 628 00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:23,400 Speaker 1: really interesting context for all this absolutely, and I guess 629 00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:27,400 Speaker 1: in that respect, like it is probably important that a 630 00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:30,040 Speaker 1: lot of this is taking place in Shanghai, which you know, 631 00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:36,160 Speaker 1: traditionally was that sort of hotbed of entrepreneurship and tech billionaires, 632 00:39:36,320 --> 00:39:38,560 Speaker 1: and then China cracked down on it and now there's 633 00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:41,120 Speaker 1: a big question mark over whether or not that kind 634 00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:45,000 Speaker 1: of employment prospects still exists. The other thing that really 635 00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:47,200 Speaker 1: struck me was just that, you know, the sort of 636 00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:51,120 Speaker 1: manpower issue, which is it takes a lot of people 637 00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:54,120 Speaker 1: and a lot of resources and presumably a decent amount 638 00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:57,920 Speaker 1: of money to actually have these types of restrictions in 639 00:39:58,040 --> 00:40:01,480 Speaker 1: place and you know, restrictions that are naturally crimping some 640 00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:05,319 Speaker 1: of your economic growth at the same time. And I 641 00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:08,279 Speaker 1: guess it's interesting to me the question of whether or 642 00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:12,839 Speaker 1: not they're going to be able to maintain those absolutely, 643 00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:15,400 Speaker 1: And you know, I hadn't really thought about that prior 644 00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:18,080 Speaker 1: in the context of the real estate collapse that we've 645 00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:20,319 Speaker 1: been we have talked about multiple times on this show. 646 00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:24,319 Speaker 1: I knew that, and probably from some of our past conversations. 647 00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:28,840 Speaker 1: I knew that they were a significant portion of local 648 00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:33,200 Speaker 1: government revenue, but I hadn't really appreciated the degree to which, okay, 649 00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:36,919 Speaker 1: if that fell, that really does constrain the state capacity 650 00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:40,000 Speaker 1: of these local governments, and that you know, even though 651 00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:42,960 Speaker 1: it is a sort of the Chinese Communist Party, etcetera, 652 00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:45,040 Speaker 1: that there are a lot of people, as a victor 653 00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:49,680 Speaker 1: pointed out, not working for full government salaries even though 654 00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:52,760 Speaker 1: they sort of our government officials, and that there really 655 00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:56,040 Speaker 1: isn't you know, a a national budget the same way 656 00:40:56,200 --> 00:40:58,440 Speaker 1: kind of like here in a respect in which you know, 657 00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:01,520 Speaker 1: if there's you know, during the housing bust of California 658 00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:03,960 Speaker 1: in two thousand and two thousand nine, that of course 659 00:41:04,040 --> 00:41:07,480 Speaker 1: caused local austerity and layoffs and so to see that 660 00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:11,439 Speaker 1: sort of similar structure of government finance there, how it's 661 00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:15,520 Speaker 1: playing out in the context of COVID is really interesting. Absolutely, 662 00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:18,520 Speaker 1: it certainly seems like we'll have more to discuss on 663 00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:20,640 Speaker 1: this topic. But shall we leave it there for now? 664 00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:23,080 Speaker 1: Let's leave it there, all right. This has been another 665 00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:26,120 Speaker 1: episode of the ad Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You 666 00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:28,759 Speaker 1: can follow me on Twitter at Tracy Alloway and I'm 667 00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:31,000 Speaker 1: Joe wi Isn't though. You can follow me on Twitter 668 00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:34,319 Speaker 1: at the Stalwart. Follow our guest Victor She He's at 669 00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:38,800 Speaker 1: v she to follow our producer Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen 670 00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:41,799 Speaker 1: Armine and check out all of our podcasts at Bloomberg 671 00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:46,000 Speaker 1: unto the handle at podcasts and for more Odd Lots content, 672 00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:49,040 Speaker 1: go to Bloomberg dot com slash odd Lots, where you 673 00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:51,799 Speaker 1: get transcript Tracy and I blog and we even write 674 00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:56,040 Speaker 1: a newsletter that you should subscribe to and Odd Lots listeners. 675 00:41:56,080 --> 00:41:57,759 Speaker 1: Tracy and I are going to be doing an a 676 00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:00,640 Speaker 1: m A Ask Me Anything episode where you can ask 677 00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:03,560 Speaker 1: us questions about us, what we're into, what we cover, 678 00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:07,279 Speaker 1: send us a voice memo, state your name, where you're from, 679 00:42:07,280 --> 00:42:09,640 Speaker 1: and one question put it in an email to odd 680 00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:12,640 Speaker 1: Lots at Bloomberg dot net, and we'll give you our answers. 681 00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:13,520 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.