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Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day. If Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot com the radio plus mobil and on your radio,

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Speaker 1: this is a Bloomberg business flash and I'm calling Moscow.

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Speaker 1: This updates brought to you by American Arbitration Association. International

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Speaker 1: Trader Business Dispute Resolve Faster with the International Center for

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Speaker 1: Dispute Resolution, the leader in alternative dispute resolution around the world.

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Speaker 1: I see dr dot org. Us stocks are retreating from

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Speaker 1: a two month high, falling for the first time in

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Speaker 1: five days, and it declines in banks and technology shares

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Speaker 1: as investors assess China's growth prospects. Now we check the

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Speaker 1: markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. On Bloomberg,

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Speaker 1: the down Jones Industrial Average is down a tenth of

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Speaker 1: a percent on twenty two points at sixteen thousand and

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Speaker 1: nine hundred eighty five. The S and P five hundred

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Speaker 1: is down three tenths per cent or six points, to

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Speaker 1: nine three, and the nasdacks down about four tenths per

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Speaker 1: cent or sixteen points, to forty seven hundred. The ten

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Speaker 1: year treasury down eleven thirty seconds, the yield one point

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Speaker 1: nine one percent yield on the two year point eight

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Speaker 1: nine percent, NIMEX s crude oil up two point one percent,

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Speaker 1: up seventy four cents to thirty six sixty eight arrow

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Speaker 1: Comex gold is down two ten percent or two dollars

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Speaker 1: ten cents to twelve sixty eight sixty ounce, the euro

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Speaker 1: and dollar oh nine five to the end one thirteen

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Speaker 1: point six one and iron ore sort of the most

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Speaker 1: ever after Chinese policymakers signal their willingness to buttress economic growth,

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Speaker 1: boosting the outlook for steel consumption in the top user

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Speaker 1: and igniting speculation that some investors who'd bet against the

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Speaker 1: market had been caught out. That's a Bloomberg business flash.

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Speaker 1: Tom and Mike Karen, thanks so much right on the

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Speaker 1: screen now if the vic's rather seventeen point six three

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Speaker 1: up point seven seven points. The last time we spoke

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Speaker 1: with Mr Valier, he was nursing the political zoo that

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Speaker 1: is his new Hampshire. He has now moved on to

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Speaker 1: Michigan and then onto Florida. Greg Villier joining us right

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Speaker 1: now with Horizon Um Investments. Greg, love your coverage in

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Speaker 1: the on the ground feel that you have. Our blue

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Speaker 1: collar is Michigan and does blue collar Michigan follow right

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Speaker 1: on to blue collar Florida. We'll see. I think that

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Speaker 1: Trump will have a pretty good night tomorrow night. I

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Speaker 1: think Hillary will have a pretty good night. But you're right.

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Speaker 1: The key issue then becomes Florida, and I would say

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Speaker 1: Ohio as well. A week from tomorrow night. That's the

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Speaker 1: big one. And the negative ads from all sorts of

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Speaker 1: Republicans I think are starting to take a toll on Trump.

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Speaker 1: You think it's working, um, but there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: questions about whether the negative ads just fire up his base. Well, well,

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Speaker 1: we'll see, but I think a lot of dark clouds

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Speaker 1: are starting to perform, whether it's Trump University or now.

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Speaker 1: But now he's changing positions, he's sounding like a politician.

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Speaker 1: Oh my god, he's he said, I've changed. So I

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Speaker 1: think there are a lot of seeds of doubt that

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Speaker 1: have been planted. If he loses either Florida or Ohio

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Speaker 1: a week from tomorrow night, I don't think he can

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Speaker 1: get to the convention with enough delegates to win. All Right,

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Speaker 1: the convention get process. Everybody's peeting their hopes on a

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Speaker 1: broke up convention. That's a lot harder to pull off

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Speaker 1: than it sounds. It's not like there's a smoke filled

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Speaker 1: room where people can go in. First of all, there's

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Speaker 1: a rule rule forty that says you have to have

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Speaker 1: won a certain number of minimum number of primaries to

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Speaker 1: get your name into nomination. So they can't just pick anybody.

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Speaker 1: Can't say Tom Keane would make a great candidate, let's nominate.

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Speaker 1: Are You're right, Mike? And I think that that's why

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Speaker 1: I say Paul Ryan can't just become the savior in Cleveland.

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Speaker 1: That said, the more I look at this map, I

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Speaker 1: think that you will see Trump go to Cleveland with

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Speaker 1: a plurality. I don't think there's any question about that.

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Speaker 1: But I think he's going to be short of a majority.

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Speaker 1: Over the weekend, and frankly, before the weekend, I saw

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Speaker 1: a set of smart articles reviewing his lack of organization.

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Speaker 1: How important is that give us the real Greg Vale,

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Speaker 1: a world that gotta have X number of people who

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Speaker 1: actually know what they're talking about to make the electoral sausage. Well,

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Speaker 1: I tell you, Tom, there's two things. Number One, I

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Speaker 1: think his organization is not the best. By the way,

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Speaker 1: Cruz has a very good organization. Number Two, I'm not

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Speaker 1: sure how liquid Trump is. That's how ironic. Here's a

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Speaker 1: guy who's allegedly worth in three four five eight billion.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure how much liquid money he's been putting

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Speaker 1: into the campaign right now. So you put it all together,

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Speaker 1: and he's a rookie. I think there are some structural

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Speaker 1: factors that also would argue against him. Interesting, Um, does

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Speaker 1: he have a donor base that can help fund him

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Speaker 1: if he declines to fund himself to the extent that

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Speaker 1: is probably going to be necessary to counter the spending

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Speaker 1: on these negative ads. I think so. But of course

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Speaker 1: in doing that, he'll deflate his own argument that he's

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Speaker 1: self funded, so that you he runs into an argument

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Speaker 1: that he's being a hypocrite if he starts taking money.

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Speaker 1: But I think yes, as we go down the road,

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Speaker 1: he will have to take some money. Does Marco Rubio

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Speaker 1: get out now? Not until next Tuesday night in Florida.

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Speaker 1: I think he'll definitely stay in through then. He had

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Speaker 1: a bad weekend, as you guys know. Um really a mystery.

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Speaker 1: The Washington Post has a big story this morning about

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Speaker 1: his organization not being first rate. But I was wrong.

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Speaker 1: I thought he was the most talented electable Republican in

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Speaker 1: the field. And it looks like we're never going to

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Speaker 1: get to find out and now we go to what

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Speaker 1: we do best, folks, is make stupid statements during the weekend,

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Speaker 1: which Greg Straightness is out on Monday morning. Greg iwasa

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Speaker 1: asked twice this weekend if they have to file texts forms.

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Speaker 1: They don't. They don't have that. They have style financial

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Speaker 1: disclosure documents, but that's not tax for US tax forums

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Speaker 1: get deep, deep into the weeds. I think you can

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Speaker 1: be shamed into it, as Mitt Romney was. You know,

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Speaker 1: I am not sure that Trump will. He seems to

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Speaker 1: get away with a lot, doesn't he and he may

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Speaker 1: be able to just finesse this for a while. But

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Speaker 1: if he doesn't, it'll be a big theme for Hillary

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Speaker 1: Clinton during the fall. Well, he has declined to release

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Speaker 1: the tax A lot of people don't think he's going

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Speaker 1: to um. There was a really fascinating article in Fortune magazine.

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Speaker 1: One of their writers, I'm looking for it now, see

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Speaker 1: if I can find it, took apart his financial disclosure

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Speaker 1: for him and suggested that there are a lot of

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Speaker 1: details in there that tell you he is nowhere near

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Speaker 1: as wealthy as he says he is. And of course

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Speaker 1: that's something Blueberg News has reported as well. Um, how

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Speaker 1: much does that matter to people? Is he keeps making

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Speaker 1: a big deal out of it in the debates. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think the three of us would gladly share, you know,

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Speaker 1: what he's got. But it does it does matter if

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Speaker 1: he's grossly inflating what he's really worth, if it's if

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Speaker 1: it's just on paper, if it's assets that are tied

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Speaker 1: up in all sorts of complex deals. It does deflate

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Speaker 1: the argument that he's a billionaire and a successful businessman.

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Speaker 1: I watched the speech by Ronney. I thought one of

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Speaker 1: the most effective arguments was that this guy Trump has

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Speaker 1: not been that good at business man. Many of his

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Speaker 1: most of his ventures have failed. What's the following on

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Speaker 1: this for Governor Romney? I mean, I saw some you know,

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Speaker 1: back and forth, and it depends on people's politics and that.

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Speaker 1: But if we're trying to do an a political show,

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Speaker 1: how does the establishment arrange the deck chairs after they've

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Speaker 1: had a few days to digest the cinema that we

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Speaker 1: saw this week. I don't think that Romney has any

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Speaker 1: chance of dem the nominee. As Mike points out, there's

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Speaker 1: a rule that seemingly would preclude that, you know, he

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Speaker 1: may have an influence now I think it's one of

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Speaker 1: the four. And of the four out there, the one

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Speaker 1: who sort of intrigues me the most is I think

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Speaker 1: if he hangs in there and goes to the convention

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Speaker 1: with a few hundred delegates, he's someone maybe everyone could

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Speaker 1: sort of agree on. So I think I understand his rationale.

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Speaker 1: I think he liked the other three may stay right

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Speaker 1: until July. How does he do that if he's hardly

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Speaker 1: has traction. I don't understand why the rules this time

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Speaker 1: are different Greg Villier and the other fourteen conventions and things.

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Speaker 1: There's rules and then there's momentum. And I think if

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Speaker 1: we go into April and all of a sudden, someone

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Speaker 1: gets hot, let's say it's casing. Maybe Rubio. I think

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Speaker 1: it's casing, and they in case it wins Pennsylvania, he

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Speaker 1: wins New York, He decisively wins California on June seventh,

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Speaker 1: He wins New Jersey on June seven. With that kind

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Speaker 1: of momentum, I think that would that would mean a

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Speaker 1: lot to delegates who are looking for somebody who can

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Speaker 1: win in the fall. What happens if Trump does maintain

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Speaker 1: his lead, UH does be positioned to become the nominee. Uh,

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Speaker 1: We've We've seen some people, including the other candidates, say

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Speaker 1: they went back the nominee. We've some people like Mitt

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Speaker 1: Romney saying no way. Well, you know, first of all,

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Speaker 1: I would say that still is the most likely scenario

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Speaker 1: that Trump limps into Cleveland, not not with a huge majority,

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Speaker 1: but just enough and does that's still the most likely scenario.

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Speaker 1: What if that happens, I think the focus will immediately

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Speaker 1: shift to the electoral college map. Could he put together

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Speaker 1: a coalition of white blue collar men in Michigan, Ohio,

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Speaker 1: upper Midwest Pennsylvania. Could he put together the votes to

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Speaker 1: do it? It's an uphill fight, but as Hillary still

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Speaker 1: has legal problems with her emails, it's Trump. You can't

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Speaker 1: rule out Trump winning this thing. It's less than but

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Speaker 1: it's not zero. Very quickly on Secretary Clinton, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think she's not getting the chat that the others

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Speaker 1: are getting because it's a whole different calculus. Where is

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Speaker 1: she after Michigan, after Florida on at least to two

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Speaker 1: to one lead, maybe more. That's not even counting the

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Speaker 1: super delegates. I mean, she would have to get indicted

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Speaker 1: at a big time to stumble. I think she quite

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Speaker 1: clearly is the favorite to meet an and the shaky

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Speaker 1: favorite to win the presidency. Greg a wonderful update. Greg

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Speaker 1: value value it immensely. He is with Horizon and over

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Speaker 1: the years has given us perspective. I swear Mike greg

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Speaker 1: is different because he grew up in New Hampshire where

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Speaker 1: this was so deadly serious when we were kids. It

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Speaker 1: was just for those of you younger, it was so

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Speaker 1: different the importance of valiers New Hampshire, way back where

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Speaker 1: they you know, in the cigar filled rooms, and it

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Speaker 1: was amazing. Ill the other day said there may be

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Speaker 1: there may be non cigar filled rooms of the pipe

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Speaker 1: in the smoke. Uh. Shout out to Albert our Hunt

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Speaker 1: with a wonderful bloom review column today on Mrs Reagan,

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Speaker 1: whatever your politics in the time, in the moment, passing

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Speaker 1: on and a further shot at to Michael McKee for

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Speaker 1: terrific value and give us some glimpse Michael in the year. Um,

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Speaker 1: did Reagan ever throw a shoe at you because you

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Speaker 1: said the wrong thing? He glared at me, but he

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Speaker 1: never threw Michael mckin. Maybe we'll talk about that tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: Tomorrow we will do economics, finance, Investment, International Relations, Michael

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Speaker 1: McKee and Tom Keane. This is Bloomberg's surveillance,