Speaker 1: The volume all right, time for our weekly three Points segment,
Speaker 1: brought to you by Chase Freedom Unlimited. How do you
Speaker 1: cash back now? So, for those of you guys who
Speaker 1: don't remember from last week this particular segment, what I'm
Speaker 1: gonna do is I'm gonna target specific matchups that I'm
Speaker 1: watching in three series here in the first round. Now.
Speaker 1: Of our eight first round series, five of them are
Speaker 1: either three to one or over, So we are going
Speaker 1: to focus on the other three series that are all
Speaker 1: still being contested relatively evenly. The Lakers are up to
Speaker 1: one on the Grizzlies, the Warriors are tied to two
Speaker 1: with the Sacramento Kings, and the Miami Heat have a
Speaker 1: two to one lead over the Milwaukee Bucks with Giannison
Speaker 1: Tena Kompo returning tonight. So we're gonna focus on those
Speaker 1: three series. Let's start with Warriors King series tied to two.
Speaker 1: Both teams are really struggling to contain the opposing star.
Speaker 1: Both Dearon Fox and Steph Curry are averaging thirty two
Speaker 1: points per game in the series. So to me the
Speaker 1: major matchup down the stretch in these final three games
Speaker 1: three game series first one to win, two, two, of
Speaker 1: the games in Sacramento. Who's gonna be able to get
Speaker 1: stops on the opposing star? I think in large part
Speaker 1: over the course of the series. As you've seen the
Speaker 1: Warriors when they go on their run in the middle
Speaker 1: of the fourth quarter last night, it's Steph Curry doing
Speaker 1: everything late in the game when the Kings get back
Speaker 1: into it to buy themselves a chance with the Harrison
Speaker 1: Barnes three on the left wing to win the game,
Speaker 1: it's Darn Fox doing everything and getting where he wants
Speaker 1: to on the floor. Whoever ends up getting consistent stops
Speaker 1: against the opposing Star is going to win this series
Speaker 1: in my opinion. So let's take a look at it
Speaker 1: from both sides. Let's start with the Warriors guarding Fox. Now.
Speaker 1: I expected them to go heavy into Gary Payton the
Speaker 1: second in this series. They have not done so. As
Speaker 1: a matter of fact, if you guys remember I talked
Speaker 1: a lot about a specific lineup that they used in
Speaker 1: Game one. In Game two that worked well, and that
Speaker 1: was Stephen Clay with Gary Payton, Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green.
Speaker 1: That lineup was plus five per one hundred possessions and
Speaker 1: just under forty possessions in the first two games, both
Speaker 1: on the road, and I thought that was the lineup
Speaker 1: that they would end up going to, especially in clutch
Speaker 1: situations in this series. Instead, they have not done that.
Speaker 1: They did not use that lineup at all in the
Speaker 1: two home games. As a matter of fact, they went
Speaker 1: with a lot of Jordan Poole, and then when Jordan
Speaker 1: Poole started struggling and had that bad turnover late in
Speaker 1: the game last night, they ended up going with Kevon
Speaker 1: Looney down the stretch, going big and ended up working
Speaker 1: out they got to win. They've been doing in on
Speaker 1: ball situations, they've been going with Draymond Green on deer
Speaker 1: and Fox and having Andrew Wiggins Garden Malik Monk. Now,
Speaker 1: they've been trying Draymond Green guarding deer and Fox with
Speaker 1: some success since all the way back when they were
Speaker 1: playing in November, so that matchup has actually worked okay
Speaker 1: with them. But here's why I like to see them
Speaker 1: use Gary Payton more. First of all, they flat out
Speaker 1: don't need Jordan Poole's offense with that group last night,
Speaker 1: even though he did make a lot of plays throughout
Speaker 1: the game. Down the stretch of the game, not so much.
Speaker 1: I thought he took a bad three, he'd left a
Speaker 1: pull up mid range jump shot way short of the rim,
Speaker 1: had that really bad turnover to Klay Thompson in the corner.
Speaker 1: His execution issues actually become an even bigger problem on
Speaker 1: that stage. So I understand going defense with that group,
Speaker 1: but instead of Kevon Looney, I would go with Gary Payton.
Speaker 1: And the main reason why is transition cross matches. So
Speaker 1: you know, the Warriors in general, they're gonna take a
Speaker 1: lot of threes, right, And when you take a lot
Speaker 1: of threes, they lead to a lot of long rebounds.
Speaker 1: And they also have a lot of guys who like
Speaker 1: to attack the offensive glass, and so as a result
Speaker 1: of that, a lot of times they're giving up transition
Speaker 1: opportunities the other way. And you know, transition defense is
Speaker 1: about stopping that first action right, or stopping that first basket,
Speaker 1: like the runout for a layup, or the runout drop
Speaker 1: off for a guy in the corner for three, or
Speaker 1: the trailer for the three. You want to stop that
Speaker 1: action and force them to play in the half court.
Speaker 1: But transition defensive principles are just get back and grab somebody.
Speaker 1: You're not running back to your matchup it's every man.
Speaker 1: It's every man just needs to sprint back and then
Speaker 1: spread out from there. And so a lot of times
Speaker 1: like whoever's the first guy back is going to pick
Speaker 1: up the ball, and then whoever the second guy is
Speaker 1: back is gonna grab the second guy. So you end
Speaker 1: up with all these cross matches, and whoever's supposed to
Speaker 1: be guarding Darren Fox might not be. He might be
Speaker 1: guarding someone else, or vice versa. Having three guys in
Speaker 1: the lineup that can guard deeron Fox instead of two.
Speaker 1: So having Draymond, Gary Payton, and Andrew Wiggins together that I
Speaker 1: believe gives you a much better chance of keeping a
Speaker 1: good defensive player on the Aaron Fox. Not to mention
Speaker 1: that Stefan Clay have both held up pretty well defensively
Speaker 1: in the series and switches when they've needed to. So
Speaker 1: I just think that gives you a much better chance
Speaker 1: of g stops. So, if we're up to me, I'd
Speaker 1: like to see the Warriors play a little bit more
Speaker 1: Gary Payton as they had on the road into Sacramento.
Speaker 1: Now on the King's Front, when they're dealing with Steph,
Speaker 1: they're having the most success with Davion Mitchell on the floor.
Speaker 1: Dearn Fox has done okay guarding Steph. The problem is is,
Speaker 1: like you saw in that final possession where you got
Speaker 1: that wide open floater, the one he missed right before
Speaker 1: the Harrison Barnes shot, he just can go right around
Speaker 1: Dearon Fox because he's got a lower center of gravity
Speaker 1: and Steph is actually like a deceptively pretty strong dude, right,
Speaker 1: And Davion Mitchell has a lower center of gravity than
Speaker 1: Steph and can beat him to spots, and so he
Speaker 1: really needs screens and pump bakes and things like that
Speaker 1: to shake free of him. He actually makes Steph work
Speaker 1: much much harder, but similarly to the Gary Payton thing,
Speaker 1: although not to the same extent. Mike Brown hasn't played
Speaker 1: him a ton. He's played under one hundred minutes in
Speaker 1: this series, and you saw last night he was kind
Speaker 1: of going back and forth between between playing Keegan Murray
Speaker 1: or Davion Mitchell down the stretch. And I didn't think
Speaker 1: it was a coincidence that it was like, Okay, we
Speaker 1: got Keegan Murray on the floor with Davion Mitchell on
Speaker 1: the bench, and Steph goes off right scores all these baskets, right,
Speaker 1: under three minutes left, Mike Brown brings on Davion Mitchell.
Speaker 1: Steph doesn't score for a while, and actually Davion does
Speaker 1: a really nice job then down in the final minute,
Speaker 1: Mike Brown goes back to Keegan Murray takes Davion Mitchell out.
Speaker 1: Darren Fox is guarding Steph and Steph goes right around
Speaker 1: him and gets a wide open float that he ended
Speaker 1: up missing, but was one of his best looks of
Speaker 1: the night, in a shot that Steph hits like sixty
Speaker 1: percent of the time. And so I would like to
Speaker 1: see them just kind of lean on Davion Mitchell a
Speaker 1: little bit more. I understand the advantage of Keegan Murray, right,
Speaker 1: It's about Kegan Murray at a great shooting night. He's
Speaker 1: being guarded more closely. You're creating spacing. But Deeron Fox
Speaker 1: and Malik Monk both in particular, are kind of just
Speaker 1: shot hunting. They're not looking to pass a ton when
Speaker 1: they're getting downhill. As matter of fact, that was a
Speaker 1: big problem for them in the fourth quarter as they
Speaker 1: were forcing shots over Andrew Wiggins and getting blocked, or
Speaker 1: Milik Monk barreling down the floor in transition forcing something
Speaker 1: to the rim. Those guys are kind of tunnel vision
Speaker 1: right now, So I'm not worry necessarily about them beating
Speaker 1: you with the pass. Even on the play where Harrison
Speaker 1: Barnes got the wide open three was because Dearn Fox
Speaker 1: literally had nowhere else to go at that point, and
Speaker 1: so I'd like to see them play a little bit
Speaker 1: more Davion Mitchell understanding that even if Golden State helps
Speaker 1: off of him, it's not like they were gonna make
Speaker 1: those passes to those shooters to begin with. Again, we
Speaker 1: gotta separate shot quality from results in a small sample size,
Speaker 1: if you play really great defense, a guy might make
Speaker 1: a shot. But in three games and three clutch situations,
Speaker 1: there's gonna be dozens and dozens of possessions, and the
Speaker 1: team that creates better shots is probably going to win.
Speaker 1: And so getting the right defensive personnel out there to
Speaker 1: make the shots more difficult, I think is going to
Speaker 1: go a long way towards swinging the outcome. All right,
Speaker 1: Moving on to heat Bucks, I think Giannis needs to
Speaker 1: come back and guard Jimmy Butler. Now I talked a
Speaker 1: lot about this in a show or two shows go.
Speaker 1: If I remember correctly about this idea, that. I'm not
Speaker 1: worried about the bucks at all until Jannis said he
Speaker 1: wasn't going to play in Game four, which didn't happen.
Speaker 1: I saw a report this morning that Yanni's plans on
Speaker 1: playing tonight, big shock. They fell down to one in
Speaker 1: the series. I think that he would have played in
Speaker 1: Game three if they were in a worse predicament. But
Speaker 1: they had just won in dominating fashion in Game two
Speaker 1: without Yannis, and so I think they thought they could
Speaker 1: go get Game three without Yannis, and now they realize
Speaker 1: that they can't. They've got to play him to beat Miami.
Speaker 1: And Miami's in a very interesting predicament now because Victor Oladipo,
Speaker 1: in some very tragic news, has has ruptured his ptel
Speaker 1: attendant in his left knee, so he's obviously not going
Speaker 1: to play anymore in this series. Tyler Harrow has broken
Speaker 1: his hand. They're going deep into the bench to guys
Speaker 1: like Duncan Robinson, right, So, like we're in a situation
Speaker 1: now where Miami just does not have a lot of
Speaker 1: shot creation. But Jimmy Butler has been phenomenal in this series.
Speaker 1: He's averaging thirty points per game, shooting sixty percent from
Speaker 1: the field sixty seven percent from three and a three
Speaker 1: to one assist to turnover ratio has eighteen assists to
Speaker 1: just six turnovers. Now, Mike Budenholzer typically likes to put
Speaker 1: Giannison help, so even when Jannis has been healthy in
Speaker 1: this series, they've tucked him on Gabe Vincent and had
Speaker 1: a Drew Holliday guard Jimmy Butler and Drew Holliday is
Speaker 1: one of the all time great defensive players in this league,
Speaker 1: but he has typically struggled, especially in uber physical environments
Speaker 1: against the bigger, stronger wings in the league. I've seen
Speaker 1: guys like Lebron give Drew Holiday problems. I've seen guys
Speaker 1: like Jimmy Butler give Drew Holiday problems over the years.
Speaker 1: And in this game, he was scoring on him in
Speaker 1: the post, shooting over the top of him, beating him
Speaker 1: off the dribble. He's just too big and strong for
Speaker 1: a guy like Drew Holliday. Unfortunately, he's been way too
Speaker 1: comfortable in this series. He's not bothering him enough. Now.
Speaker 1: The idea there is Bud likes to keep Jannis and
Speaker 1: help because Giannis is a devastating low man help defender,
Speaker 1: and there is a lot of value to that in
Speaker 1: the defense, but specifically with a heat team like this,
Speaker 1: where if you cut the head off the snake, if
Speaker 1: you can get Jimmy Butler to start struggling, this team
Speaker 1: will not be able to score and you can quickly
Speaker 1: rip off three wins and end this series in six
Speaker 1: games if you can control Jimmy Butler. Secondly, Jiannis has
Speaker 1: guarded guys like this really well in his career. We've
Speaker 1: talked a lot this season. There was one of my
Speaker 1: favorite games this year was a win by the Bucks
Speaker 1: over the Clippers. Or down the stretch of the game,
Speaker 1: Yannis switched on to Kawhi Leonard and locked his ass
Speaker 1: up those big forwards. He's too strong. He can absorb
Speaker 1: that contact in the chest without giving up position, and
Speaker 1: then when he needs to close ground to contest, he's
Speaker 1: got the length to contest. So, like Drew on, Jimmy's
Speaker 1: just not working. Specifically having Giannis on Jimmy as a
Speaker 1: matchup that I believe he can win, and I'm not
Speaker 1: concerned as much about the help defense part, as long
Speaker 1: as you can contain Jimmy, just because there's not enough
Speaker 1: skill on the floor. Finally, it is smarter tactically, in
Speaker 1: my opinion, to keep Giannis closer to the ball. One
Speaker 1: of the problems with putting Giannis and help in this
Speaker 1: particular series is Eric Spolsh has a very clear strategy here.
Speaker 1: It's we've got Bam and Jimmy, and it's three shooters
Speaker 1: around them at all times, three guys that are dead eye,
Speaker 1: knockdown shooters. And so by putting Janis in help, he's
Speaker 1: being pulled further away from the rim. Now in a
Speaker 1: let's protect like bread and butter the Jimmy Bam pick
Speaker 1: and roll. Now you're asking either Yiannis to chase over
Speaker 1: the top of screens or to switch brook Lopez out
Speaker 1: onto the perimeter. But again, bam Adebayo is continuing to
Speaker 1: demonstrate a struggle offensively to be aggressive and dangerous when
Speaker 1: he has the ball in his hands. So I would
Speaker 1: even just switch that brook Lopeziani's action with the Jimmy
Speaker 1: bampick and roll have Brooke Press up a little bit,
Speaker 1: and now you have giannison help, except for he's in
Speaker 1: help in a situation on bam Adebayo where he's close
Speaker 1: to the rim. So specifically, from a tactical perspective, Putting
Speaker 1: Giannis on Jimmy in isolations keeps him close to their
Speaker 1: most dangerous offensive player, and in pick and roll situations
Speaker 1: helps him to stay closer to the rim. I think
Speaker 1: that is the right strategy. And again, with Tyler Harrow
Speaker 1: and Victor Oladipo out cut the head off the snake,
Speaker 1: this team will not be able to score all right. Lastly,
Speaker 1: before we get out of here, our third point moving
Speaker 1: forward to Lakers Grizzlies. Can the Lakers play with consistent
Speaker 1: focus and energy? I believe that the Lakers are a
Speaker 1: much much better team than the Memphis Grizzlies. I believe
Speaker 1: that going into the series. The reason I picked the
Speaker 1: Lakers in six is because they have a tendency to
Speaker 1: play with inconsistent effort. But when they have played hard,
Speaker 1: I think they've been the much better. Game one, they
Speaker 1: dominated the glass forty five to thirty four, and rebounds.
Speaker 1: They got way better shots. They shot six percent better
Speaker 1: from the field. I didn't think that was just a
Speaker 1: shot variance type of game. I thought the Lakers looked
Speaker 1: like a better team throughout the game. Then the first
Speaker 1: quarter of Game three, they outrebounded Memphis twenty to twelve.
Speaker 1: They made fourteen field goals in that quarter, compared to
Speaker 1: just three for Memphis, and they forced them into six turnovers.
Speaker 1: In the series, the Lakers have made eighteen shots per
Speaker 1: game in the restricted area and have held the Grizzlies
Speaker 1: to just thirteen point seven made shots in the restricted
Speaker 1: area per game, which is massively inflated by them just
Speaker 1: letting John Morant run a layup line in the first
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter of Game two or Game three.
Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, in the regular season, Memphis
Speaker 1: averaged nineteen point three makes in the restricted area per game,
Speaker 1: which ranked seventh in the league, and the Lakers have
Speaker 1: brought them down from nineteen point three to thirteen point seven,
Speaker 1: basically shutting off the rim from them. I think the
Speaker 1: Lakers are bigger. I think they're stronger. I think they're
Speaker 1: more skilled. I think their stars are better. I think
Speaker 1: their role players are better. I think they're just better.
Speaker 1: But every single time they've taken a position of advantage
Speaker 1: in the series, they've relaxed. They controlled Game one and
Speaker 1: then immediately laid an egg in Game two against them
Speaker 1: without jow which without John. Defensively, if they were locked in,
Speaker 1: they would have held them in the sixties or at
Speaker 1: least in the seventies or eighties. If they gave two
Speaker 1: and a half quarters of solid effort, Nope, mailed it in,
Speaker 1: got beat. Then they dominate the first quarter of Game two.
Speaker 1: I tweet right after the quarter expect them to do
Speaker 1: the bare minimum the rest of the game. They do,
Speaker 1: they barely win by ten points. As a matter of fact,
Speaker 1: I think the Lakers will beat the Grizzlies. I feel
Speaker 1: very confident about that, but it is a question of
Speaker 1: how long it will take. And like I said last night,
Speaker 1: this specific tendency of Theirs to let their foot off
Speaker 1: the gas I think could get them beat as soon
Speaker 1: as next round against Golden State and Sacramento. But specifically
Speaker 1: within this series, the difference between the Lakers winning in
Speaker 1: five or winning in six is gonna come down to
Speaker 1: that consistency of effort. And I believe it's very important
Speaker 1: for them to win this series quickly because Golden State
Speaker 1: Sacramento very well might go seven. Even if the Warriors
Speaker 1: won Game five. Sacramento is a dangerous team to come
Speaker 1: into Golden State and win Game six. They just damn
Speaker 1: near beat them in Game four. As a matter of fact,
Speaker 1: I'd say odds are that series goes seven. I picked
Speaker 1: Warriors in six. I'm gonna stick with it, but I
Speaker 1: wouldn't be the least bit surprised if it went seven.
Speaker 1: So if that series goes seven and you can beat
Speaker 1: Memphis in five that as a matter of fact, I
Speaker 1: believe that Game five would be on Wednesday, right, So
Speaker 1: for Warriors Kings, we have their game their Game five
Speaker 1: is also on Wednesday, So that means that their Game
Speaker 1: six would be on Friday, and their Game seven would
Speaker 1: be on Sunday, which would mean that Game one of
Speaker 1: the following series would stay start no earlier than Tuesday
Speaker 1: if the series went to seven games, and would start
Speaker 1: Sunday if it ended in six. So if you end
Speaker 1: the series in five games, if you win on Wednesday,
Speaker 1: then you are guaranteed Thursday, Friday, Saturday off. That's three days,
Speaker 1: three full days, a day to completely rest their bodies,
Speaker 1: a light day to schematically go over what they want
Speaker 1: to do in round two, and then maybe a hard
Speaker 1: practice day of the day before the game. That's that's
Speaker 1: the worst case scenario if you close the series out
Speaker 1: in five. If you close the series out in five
Speaker 1: and King's Warriors goes to seven, you're not playing until
Speaker 1: Tuesday at the earliest, so you're guaranteed Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday,
Speaker 1: Monday off. That's five full calendar days at a minimum
Speaker 1: if the Grizzly. If the Warriors Kings series goes seven,
Speaker 1: and you're dealing with two superstars that wholly represent the
Speaker 1: ceiling of your team that are coming off of foot injuries,
Speaker 1: one of them stress related, the other a ligament tear
Speaker 1: that was also stress related. So it's vitally important for
Speaker 1: the Lakers to close this series out quickly, and that's
Speaker 1: why I think it's such an important matchup in this series.
Speaker 1: My three points were brought to you by Chase Freedom Unlimited.
Speaker 1: Earned five percent on travel purchase through Chase, three percent
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Speaker 1: one point five percent on everything else. How do you
Speaker 1: cash back? All right, guys, that is all I have
Speaker 1: for today. As always, as sincerely appreciate your guys' support.
Speaker 1: We will be back live on AMP after the final
Speaker 1: buzzer of Lakers Grizzlies later tonight to break down that
Speaker 1: game as well as Game four between the Bucks and
Speaker 1: the Heat. I appreciate you guys, I'll see you later tonight.
Speaker 1: The volume