Speaker 1: Term check it down, Man Now Down Now Thursday morning,
Speaker 1: January nine, twents nineteen. It's the Beating the Book Podcast
Speaker 1: Megapod Division Round good games this weekend. We'll tackle them
Speaker 1: all as always, beginning with the staples of the show.
Speaker 1: But first eleven good minutes with Aaron Shots. This is
Speaker 1: a numbers game with Gil Alexander, broadcasting only on the
Speaker 1: Vegas Stats and Information Network bild gideons will believe in analytics. Analytics,
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Speaker 1: has every number you need to cash your tickets now
Speaker 1: live from the Visa in studios in the South Point
Speaker 1: Hotel and Casino. It's Gil Alexander. It is a numbers
Speaker 1: game right here at Visa, the Vegas Stats and Information Network,
Speaker 1: serious XM Channel two oh four, Visa dot Com, the
Speaker 1: Visa app, Fubo TV, where all books are so old, right,
Speaker 1: maybe not that last one. Uh. This is where sports
Speaker 1: betting analytics live actionable sports betting information on the show
Speaker 1: this hour. Kind enough to make quarterly appearances with us
Speaker 1: on the show this year, and we appreciate that this
Speaker 1: is always the time that he uh grants me some
Speaker 1: time he hangs out with me on this show and
Speaker 1: on the podcast to just sort of do a little
Speaker 1: brief year in review and then a projection into the playoffs.
Speaker 1: It's the great errand Shots from Football Outsiders. Good morning, Erin, Hey,
Speaker 1: good morning. I'm excited to talk to you because I
Speaker 1: always ask you the same sort of template of questions
Speaker 1: at this time during the season, and I want to
Speaker 1: start with some of those. The historical context of a
Speaker 1: certain offense and a certain offense to the good and
Speaker 1: to the bat I should say this year, uh, namely
Speaker 1: the Chiefs and the Cardinals. Put those if you would, sir,
Speaker 1: in historical perspective for us based on your numbers. Right,
Speaker 1: So for folks who don't know the numbers at Football
Speaker 1: Outsiders are main stats called d v o A. It
Speaker 1: stands for defense adjusted value over average. We have to
Speaker 1: stat breaking down play by play, going all the way
Speaker 1: back to what's important is that it's normalized by year. Okay,
Speaker 1: so it controls for the fact that the offensive environment
Speaker 1: of this year was so high, and based on that,
Speaker 1: we have Kansas City as the fifth best offense of
Speaker 1: the last thirty three years and Arizona as a third
Speaker 1: worst defense of the last thirty three years. Third worst offense.
Speaker 1: You mean of the last thirty three years, the third worst, sorry,
Speaker 1: third worst offense of the last thirty three years. Right, yeah,
Speaker 1: so that the only offense is worse. Here's the thing
Speaker 1: that some of the offense is better than the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: which are fifth the best in the last thirty three
Speaker 1: years according to d v o A your number. I
Speaker 1: remember some of those offenses, namely the number one team,
Speaker 1: which is the two thousand seven Patriots, which made the
Speaker 1: bid to go undefeated before getting beat by the Giants
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl. Uh and the night Broncos, also
Speaker 1: a Super Bowl winning team just above them. When I
Speaker 1: look at the when I look at the two teams
Speaker 1: that were worse than the Cardinals over that thirty three years, man,
Speaker 1: thank goodness, I have no recollection of these two teams
Speaker 1: there in two thousand two Texans and ninety two Seahawks.
Speaker 1: What were those two thousand two Texans were an expansion
Speaker 1: team where I believe that David Carr set the all
Speaker 1: time record for taking sacks in the season. And the
Speaker 1: ninety two Seahawks were one of these incredible teams with
Speaker 1: a really great defense led by Kenny Easily and Cork
Speaker 1: has Kennedy, but their offense was so putrid. They used
Speaker 1: three quarterbacks during the year, Kelly uh Stover, Stan Stan
Speaker 1: Gelba and Dan McGuire. And running game. The running game
Speaker 1: was actually reasonable with I think Chris Warren was his name,
Speaker 1: but it's the passing game was so abhorrent at that
Speaker 1: even right ninety two had much lower offensive levels than now,
Speaker 1: but he compared to other teams at the time, they
Speaker 1: were just dismally low. Wow, Kelly Stow for Stan Gilbo
Speaker 1: Gilbo I believe went to Maryland because I'm from that
Speaker 1: part of the country. And then Dan McGuire I believe
Speaker 1: is Mark McGuire's brother. If I recall, Yeah, they did
Speaker 1: not score more than seventeen points in a single game
Speaker 1: all season. Wow. Do you remember Cortez, Kennedy and Kenny easily? Though?
Speaker 1: That was That was quite a defense, all right. So
Speaker 1: then the other question that perhaps happily or some years
Speaker 1: much to your chagrin, I ask, is your preseason projections
Speaker 1: from before this season, how many of the twelve playoff
Speaker 1: teams did you get? Right? Aaron, We we did pretty
Speaker 1: good this year. We got eight playoff teams right, which
Speaker 1: is about average for us. But the three of the
Speaker 1: four teams that we mistakenly had in the playoffs were
Speaker 1: the last three teams that got eliminated. Oh, there you go.
Speaker 1: And though our playoff prediction had Minnesota, our playoff prediction
Speaker 1: had Pitts for our playoff prediction had Tennessee UH, And
Speaker 1: we had Indianapolis and Kansas City seventh and eighth in
Speaker 1: the a f C, but they made it in. And
Speaker 1: we had Seattle UH seventh in the NFC and they
Speaker 1: made it in. So the only team we really really
Speaker 1: blew it on was Chicago. So the most disappointing and
Speaker 1: the most overachieving then was it was Chicago. The most
Speaker 1: overachieving Chicago was definitely the most overachieving team this year.
Speaker 1: Although I think you have to pok Kansas City. I
Speaker 1: don't think any of us could have expected Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 1: to be what Patrick Mahomes turned into. Yeah, not quite.
Speaker 1: What was the most disappointing team then? Based on your numbers? Oh,
Speaker 1: I mean, based on what everybody else expected, the most
Speaker 1: disappointing team was Jacksonville. Based on what we expected this year,
Speaker 1: I would say the most disappointing team was Green Pay. Oh,
Speaker 1: that's interesting. And then Here's here's what I always love
Speaker 1: to ask you then, and you've had some great answers
Speaker 1: to this question over the year, is that have really
Speaker 1: have really manifested which is then as we project into
Speaker 1: next season, for those who enjoy making a futures bet
Speaker 1: in the NFL, even though I have long said, you know,
Speaker 1: there's not a lot of value in the futures market
Speaker 1: before a season starts, But just for those who might
Speaker 1: want to delve into that based on d v O A,
Speaker 1: what is the team that either failed to make the playoffs?
Speaker 1: Because I guess Pittsburgh might be the obvious answer to that,
Speaker 1: I don't want to phrase it that way, but what's
Speaker 1: the team that's sort of under the radar, let's say,
Speaker 1: Aaron in the conventional in the mainstream, that is that
Speaker 1: that no one's really thinking about, they think is primed
Speaker 1: for good for great success next year. Well, here's the
Speaker 1: tough part of that is because if I'm going to
Speaker 1: answer this question, I want a team where I trust
Speaker 1: the quarterback, and a couple of teams where our numbers
Speaker 1: say that those teams were better than their records. I
Speaker 1: don't really trust the quarterback we have Denver Thirt teams.
Speaker 1: Despite their six and ten record, Denver had an incredible
Speaker 1: record year of playing close to really good teams, and
Speaker 1: that normally indicates improvement the following year, and you're going
Speaker 1: to get a better a head coach who's better and
Speaker 1: in game decision making next year. I would hope, right
Speaker 1: they're changing the head coach. That should help. But I
Speaker 1: don't know if I trust case Keenum enough to say
Speaker 1: Denver is my hot playoffs pick for next year. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I hear you on that. I mean that that makes
Speaker 1: perfect sense, and then I guess you have to. I mean,
Speaker 1: I would imagine Minnesota and Pittsburgh will be right back.
Speaker 1: I mean, there's no way until you run through the
Speaker 1: numbers that you'll know we have the nine and ten.
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh was ninth this year in our number. Minnesota was tent.
Speaker 1: Another popular team that we have high we have Cleveland
Speaker 1: and they were hotter at the end of the season.
Speaker 1: I mean, I definitely am on the Cleveland bandwagon for um.
Speaker 1: Atlanta was I think better than people realize, despite the
Speaker 1: fact that they only went seven and nine, their seventeenth
Speaker 1: in our number, and their defense is thirty feet and
Speaker 1: defense is less consistent from year to year than offense,
Speaker 1: and they had a ton of defensive injuries. There's a
Speaker 1: lot of reasons to believe that the Atlantic defense will
Speaker 1: improve next year. And so Atlanta is going to be
Speaker 1: back into the playoff punt next year, absent for the
Speaker 1: concutive year. The Washington Redskins and Aeron's numbers once again,
Speaker 1: not your fault there, And I'm not one of those guys,
Speaker 1: and they were, they were really they We're doing pretty
Speaker 1: well in our numbers through half the season. And then
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, they got to the second quarterback
Speaker 1: and the third quarterback in the fourth quarterback, and so
Speaker 1: we don't know whether Alex Smith is going to be
Speaker 1: back next year. We don't know who the quarterback is
Speaker 1: going to be. But the defense is the same thing.
Speaker 1: They always have a you know, an average defense, and
Speaker 1: they had an average defense to shoot so seven, they're
Speaker 1: so seven and nine. Um, we're talking to Aaron Shots
Speaker 1: at FO Underscore A Shots on Twitter. That's s c
Speaker 1: H A t Zs, the head of Football Outsiders, also
Speaker 1: an ESPN insider. Um, I'm glad you brought up the
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns before we get to wild card weekend. I
Speaker 1: want to give you ops, Aaron, because before the season started,
Speaker 1: you came on a Numbers game and you made what
Speaker 1: at the time seemed like an outlandish statement. Do you
Speaker 1: remember what it was? Did I say that Cleveland was
Speaker 1: going to go over? No, you would have probably said
Speaker 1: more than that. You went even further. You said it
Speaker 1: would not surprise you if the Cleveland Browns made the postseason.
Speaker 1: Now it didn't happen, but it got close enough where
Speaker 1: I think you deserve your proper respect on that, sir,
Speaker 1: because people were laughing at thank you. What did you
Speaker 1: Numbers say about the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.
Speaker 1: Philadelphia was the most average team we have ever measured.
Speaker 1: It's kind of remarkable. In thirty three years, we've never
Speaker 1: measured a team that came within one percentage point of
Speaker 1: average in all three phases of the game until Philadelphia.
Speaker 1: Their total t v o A was zero point zero percent,
Speaker 1: and they were sixteen in offense, in defense, fifteen to
Speaker 1: special teams, fifteenth in schedule strength, and sixteenths inconsistency. They
Speaker 1: literally were like the most average team we've ever measured,
Speaker 1: except that they went nine and seven instead of eight
Speaker 1: and eight, which I think you can give a little
Speaker 1: bit of credit to to Doug Peterson for his aggressive
Speaker 1: coaching to get them over that little extra win there.
Speaker 1: You know the fact that if you look over all
Speaker 1: five games that Nick Foles started, Wentz was the better
Speaker 1: quarterback than Foles. If you only look at the last
Speaker 1: three games, then Foles was the better quarterback than Wents.
Speaker 1: But you also have to consider the first two games
Speaker 1: the season that Foles played, So I do think it's
Speaker 1: a little bit of a step down to go from
Speaker 1: Wentz to Fulls for Philadelphia. All right, Aaron, I leave
Speaker 1: you with this. If there was one team here this
Speaker 1: weekend that would be most primed for a run to
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, which team would that be? The best
Speaker 1: team of these teams is the Chargers. But the Chargers
Speaker 1: would have to win three games on the road. That's
Speaker 1: a little hard to do. Yeah, that's the first first
Speaker 1: kind Chargers comment all show. It's really been a Ravens
Speaker 1: theme show today. Aaron, You're the best. I appreciated man.
Speaker 1: Aaron shots at FO Underscore a s c. H. A.
Speaker 1: T Z on Twitter, Football Outsiders founder, creator and ESPN insider.
Speaker 1: Thank you, Aaron, enjoy the weekend. The great Aeron shots
Speaker 1: for football outsiders right here on a numbers game. There
Speaker 1: were there were baseball analytics everywhere, mateo. And then one
Speaker 1: day a young Aaron shots up in New England. I
Speaker 1: believe he was in New England at the time. Uh.
Speaker 1: He was like, why isn't anybody doing this for football?
Speaker 1: And he's like, I'm gonna do it myself, and there
Speaker 1: the rest is history. And now back to your regular
Speaker 1: scheduled podcast. On my right, nearly four decades in the
Speaker 1: business from Wager Talk, it's Marco D'Angel. Look, good morning, Marco,
Speaker 1: Hey Jiol, how are you doing today. I'm doing very well.
Speaker 1: I am on the road. I am at Borgata in
Speaker 1: Atlantic City. I don't know if you've heard this. Gambling
Speaker 1: is legalized here. That's why I'm here. We're never stopping
Speaker 1: for the megapod though. On my left also a staple
Speaker 1: of the show for all these years. Out of the
Speaker 1: sports betting diaspora, it's a what's happen? Today's all right?
Speaker 1: Never better, brother, never better? Thanks for having me. Is
Speaker 1: this the week where the chiefs fall? Because this the week?
Speaker 1: God bless America. I don't think so, I really don't.
Speaker 1: I actually think the line should be higher I'm surprised, Uh,
Speaker 1: the dropped the way it did and actually saw some
Speaker 1: sharp money come in on Indianapolis. That was a little
Speaker 1: bit surprising the line would move the other way. I mean,
Speaker 1: Coult's been hot, um, but I thought power rating wise,
Speaker 1: they would be a little greater favorite. I mean, look
Speaker 1: at that numbers five real quickly. It's five right now. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you don't have to don't feel the advantage. And it
Speaker 1: looks low. Alright, alright, looks low. You don't have to
Speaker 1: do your whole dissertation now. We'll find out more about
Speaker 1: that coming up. And our guests today returning today. I did,
Speaker 1: I did, but you know how the intro works. Have
Speaker 1: you been here before? For God's six? I love you,
Speaker 1: bro and the guests though the show today returning I
Speaker 1: think only our second return guest this year. He is
Speaker 1: a serial contest winner in Las Vegas eleven let Me
Speaker 1: run him down Real Quick Dollar Win Eliminator Contest, the
Speaker 1: Palms Contest in twenty sixteen Stations Casinos Last and Standing
Speaker 1: College Football Contest, and flirted with the title over at
Speaker 1: Stations this year as well in the NFL contest It's
Speaker 1: Our Friend Las Vegas. Chris what's happening to Chris? Oh,
Speaker 1: good morning everybody. Yeah, there was a sad last day
Speaker 1: of the year loss. We made it down to the
Speaker 1: final weekend and lost on the final game by half
Speaker 1: a point. Oh, you were down to the last three, right,
Speaker 1: you were one of the last three. Yeah. The Washington
Speaker 1: botched extra point on Thanksgiving Day excluded us from winning.
Speaker 1: The whole thing said not to mention a non targeting
Speaker 1: flag not made, a non p I not made. Don't
Speaker 1: get me started on that game. That was brutal. Thanks Washington,
Speaker 1: different times. Yeah, that's the one I'm talking about. Yeah, okay, well, gentlemen,
Speaker 1: Division Round, National Football League. Great games will break them
Speaker 1: all down. ACE already got a head start on the
Speaker 1: Colts and Chiefs. Let's start there. That's the first one
Speaker 1: in chronological order, Colts at Chiefs. The Colts coming off
Speaker 1: the most dominant win of wild card week, that's for sure.
Speaker 1: Score any one points in the first half against the Texans,
Speaker 1: just sort of coasted it out after that point. Andrew
Speaker 1: Luck two twenty two yards to touchdowns in that game
Speaker 1: against the Texans. He actually got a hundred ninety one
Speaker 1: of them, and both touchdowns before halftime. Colts built the
Speaker 1: twenty one and nothing lead and coasted, as I said,
Speaker 1: to victory. So they opened the season, Colts did one
Speaker 1: in five. Now they've won five in a row, ten
Speaker 1: out of eleven, and they traveled to the Chiefs, the
Speaker 1: Chiefs who are a f C West Champions number one
Speaker 1: seed in the entire a f C. Right now, as
Speaker 1: we look at this across the board, Chief's a consensus
Speaker 1: five and a half point favorite. In this ballgame has
Speaker 1: always be starting with a guest, Chris, your thoughts, sir, Well,
Speaker 1: you know, uh eight actually uh reversed his course from
Speaker 1: earlier to the last time I was on the show.
Speaker 1: We were in opposing views on Kansas City and and uh,
Speaker 1: humorously enough, we're gonna be on opposite side this time.
Speaker 1: I was really high on Casey through most of the season.
Speaker 1: But I think, uh, since they lost uh Lamar. What's
Speaker 1: that guy's name again, A Kaream the the guy. Yeah,
Speaker 1: since they lost him, that whole team is not produced
Speaker 1: offensively with the same efficiency. And efficiency, sir, they scored
Speaker 1: twenty five points or more in every game of the season.
Speaker 1: I think that's the first time ever. And uh, but
Speaker 1: I just see a little bit of a little bit
Speaker 1: of the wheels coming off the bus with Kansas City.
Speaker 1: As you mentioned, Indianapolis is one ten out of eleven
Speaker 1: and seven, three and one against the spread. UH. There
Speaker 1: two or no straight up in a UH against the
Speaker 1: spread as the dog. They were only an underdog twice
Speaker 1: even with that horrible start. But you know, one of
Speaker 1: the reasons for that is they actually faced one of
Speaker 1: the worst schedules UH in the league. Over a recent
Speaker 1: periods SOU they've really put up some great stats, a
Speaker 1: lot of winning weeks. I'm a little bit nervous with
Speaker 1: Indianapolis to because they played such a pathetic schedule late
Speaker 1: in the year. UM, but they've really showed up against Houston.
Speaker 1: Houston had a really strong d and they handled them
Speaker 1: pretty well. They are on a roll. Luck has the experience.
Speaker 1: And now we're in a situation where we've got another
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback entering the playoffs. And here's a really really
Speaker 1: interesting statu I wasn't aware of. The last twenty rookie
Speaker 1: quarterbacks they have started a playoff game are four and
Speaker 1: sixteen against the spread and even in in seven and thirteen. Overall,
Speaker 1: for the few extras that were favorite won the game. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, Kansas Cities defense is really soft. We don't
Speaker 1: have to go into that. Uh. Indianapolis is running the
Speaker 1: ball very well. They've put up five hundred and sixty
Speaker 1: or five hundred and eighty yards over the last two games,
Speaker 1: so they have a really balanced attack. I think it's
Speaker 1: it's good to really leave a lot of openings for Indianapolis. Uh,
Speaker 1: it's a very least to stay within, you know, a
Speaker 1: backdoor cover sort of situation. I'm kind of surprised the
Speaker 1: lines blow six. Also, I haven't met this game yet.
Speaker 1: I'm hoping that it gets propped up a little bit. Uh,
Speaker 1: but I probably will play the plus six in this
Speaker 1: game when we get it. Yeah, And what Chris is
Speaker 1: saying about Patrick Mahomes, he is the only rookie quarterback
Speaker 1: that we'll be playing, or rookie quarterback. He's the only
Speaker 1: guy that's never had a playoff game under his belt
Speaker 1: that's playing this weekend. I should say, even Jared Golf,
Speaker 1: although it ended terribly for the Rams. Terrible performance by
Speaker 1: the Rams last year, even Jared Golf has played in one.
Speaker 1: I liked Marco the group of games from a betting
Speaker 1: perspective better last week quite frankly, but this is the
Speaker 1: one where I have the most conviction and it is
Speaker 1: on the Colts. How about you, Well, I look at
Speaker 1: this one, and you know, obviously it's it's hard not
Speaker 1: to like the Colts the way they're playing, But there
Speaker 1: are a couple of negatives that you've got to take
Speaker 1: into consideration here, and it's gonna end up having me
Speaker 1: playing the total is my stronger play. Uh. This is
Speaker 1: gonna be the third straight road game for Indianapolis, and
Speaker 1: we know how tough that is to our in regular season.
Speaker 1: Now you know we move it into the playoffs, everything
Speaker 1: is more intensified with the playoffs. That's the biggest concern
Speaker 1: that I have going in here. And unfortunately for them,
Speaker 1: if you want to lug the miles travel, this is
Speaker 1: not one of those East coast West coast type deals.
Speaker 1: There are three road games. Traveling from Indianapolis is Tennessee,
Speaker 1: Houston in Kansas City. So if you could have three
Speaker 1: road games, this is probably mileedgewise the shortest distance you
Speaker 1: could have for three road games for them, what I
Speaker 1: am going to look at and if you remember on
Speaker 1: last week's podcast, skill I went with the under in
Speaker 1: the Indianapolis UM Houston game, and you look at those
Speaker 1: two teams and you think Andrew Luck, you think of
Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson, and automatically you think about the over Um.
Speaker 1: The Colts defense had been playing well, but that was
Speaker 1: a you know, a division foe that they were meeting
Speaker 1: for the third time. You know, when you play somebody
Speaker 1: you know twice every year and then now you hook
Speaker 1: up a third time in a playoff game, you know
Speaker 1: everybody's strengths and weaknesses, and I think it's easier to
Speaker 1: prepare the game plan. Uh, you can take away what
Speaker 1: the other team does best with that being so familiar
Speaker 1: with each other. That's not the case this week. Uh.
Speaker 1: The Kansas City defense, you know, we don't have to
Speaker 1: talk about how bad they've been all year. I mean
Speaker 1: this is from start to finish. Uh, this defense hasn't
Speaker 1: been able to stop anybody. Uh, they just outscore everybody
Speaker 1: in Indianapolis, as Chris said, has played a rather soft schedule. Uh,
Speaker 1: so I think that part's gonna catch up with their defense,
Speaker 1: which is overachieved this year. That's the biggest surprise to me.
Speaker 1: We didn't know what Andrew Luck was gonna do coming
Speaker 1: back off the injury from last year, but we knew
Speaker 1: what he was capable of. Nobody saw this defense playing
Speaker 1: as good as it did for Indianapolis, and I think
Speaker 1: that changes this week. And finally, if you go back
Speaker 1: to last year, if anything, I think Andrew or Andy
Speaker 1: Reid is gonna learned uh a lesson from last year.
Speaker 1: No leads ever enough, and especially with the defense that
Speaker 1: he has this year, he'll keep his foot on the gas.
Speaker 1: I think throughout the ball game because he knows Andrew
Speaker 1: luck is capable of coming from behind with that set,
Speaker 1: and with last week's game being a low scoring game,
Speaker 1: gives us a little bit of value here with the number,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go ahead and take over. And I know
Speaker 1: that you know sounds square Kansas City game. Let's take
Speaker 1: it over, But that to me presents the most value.
Speaker 1: If I I do lean to the Colts, I will
Speaker 1: be honest, they lean to the Colts, but it's weak.
Speaker 1: Probably where I'll be more involved with the Colts is
Speaker 1: I know it's not the proper number mathematically to tease,
Speaker 1: but if it's over the four and a half, and
Speaker 1: I can use a six point teaser and get it
Speaker 1: to double digits, get it to the ten and a half.
Speaker 1: That would be still think some value in this particular matchup,
Speaker 1: but I think the over is the better play. Someone
Speaker 1: I know will be teasing Indianapolis Marcot. That will be me.
Speaker 1: That will be me for sure. Um, Marlon Mackott should
Speaker 1: be mentioned. A huge game against the Texans, carries a
Speaker 1: hundred forty yards a touchdown. All right, Ace, I'm sorry
Speaker 1: you jump the gun earlier. Now you get to speak
Speaker 1: about the Chiefs. Go ahead, Yeah, no problem at all.
Speaker 1: I haven't been again this weekend. So far, I haven't
Speaker 1: bet anything, and closer as the game day. I said
Speaker 1: that last week. The guys I've been working with the
Speaker 1: last couple of years, they've been taking some of their
Speaker 1: biggest positions the day before in the day of the
Speaker 1: game with good success. Um. I think it's because some
Speaker 1: of these lines get knocked out of whack once the
Speaker 1: public gets involved, and let's face it, most of their
Speaker 1: money comes in on game day. With that said, this
Speaker 1: is the game. I thought the line was a little
Speaker 1: bit short. And what I mean by that is, granted,
Speaker 1: Kansas City has not played their best ball down the stretch,
Speaker 1: losing two of their last three games. Um, but They've
Speaker 1: been a big favorite when they've played at home. I
Speaker 1: mean they were two touchdown favored against Oakland, they were
Speaker 1: a touchdown favorite against Baltimore. I just thought it would
Speaker 1: come out a little bit higher. Um. With that said,
Speaker 1: I could tell you what certainty their sharp money on
Speaker 1: to Indianapolis that picked up that plus six UM, and
Speaker 1: that has me thinking, you know, there may be some
Speaker 1: value on that momentum as far as the total goes.
Speaker 1: With Marco touched on, I think he may be right.
Speaker 1: And you look at Indianapolis. UM, they haven't had high
Speaker 1: totals over the last six games. They haven't had any
Speaker 1: in the fifties. Even so with a total this high,
Speaker 1: I don't think it's just the Kansas City signed that's
Speaker 1: expected to do some scoring. And we know that defense
Speaker 1: gives up points. So as long as Indianapolis does their part, um,
Speaker 1: I don't think anyone's gonna keep Kansas City off the scoreboard. UM.
Speaker 1: And again listen, uh we joke about how I feel
Speaker 1: about Kansas City, and my my simple note is this,
Speaker 1: I think they're extremely overrated, over valued. Obviously, they're a
Speaker 1: good football team. You don't win eleven games twelve games
Speaker 1: in the NFL and not have a good football team. Um.
Speaker 1: But like I said, I thought their schedule with soft,
Speaker 1: I thought they're built for the regular season. Um, And
Speaker 1: I don't think they're a playoff type of football team.
Speaker 1: And then a couple that with history of just not
Speaker 1: being able to get the job done, um when it matters.
Speaker 1: I mean, listen, they won the turnover battle against the
Speaker 1: Chargers at home plus two and turnovers and still managed
Speaker 1: to lose one of their most important games. I mean,
Speaker 1: every time they stepped up and there was any pressure,
Speaker 1: they lost. And when they played the Rams in that
Speaker 1: Big Markey the game of the year pretty much as
Speaker 1: far as primetime games go, turn the ball over five times.
Speaker 1: So I mean, when the pressure is on, this team
Speaker 1: just hasn't delivered. So for me, I guess I understand
Speaker 1: why the Indianapolis money is coming in, especially since this
Speaker 1: is a team that has delivered when it matters. And
Speaker 1: Andrew looks the guy I want what the football. So
Speaker 1: I have not bet this game. I can confirm it's
Speaker 1: sharp money that took that plus six on Indianapolis Colts,
Speaker 1: and I can't disagree. But the only thing I can
Speaker 1: add is I don't think there's any line value on
Speaker 1: the Indianapolis Colts, I think power rating wise, Um, we're
Speaker 1: looking at a number that's based more on recency bias
Speaker 1: than anything else. Um, if this game was played in
Speaker 1: week eight week ten, what would Kansas City be? And
Speaker 1: I you know, they're different teams than they were in
Speaker 1: week ten. I get that. But as professionals were supposed
Speaker 1: to not overreact, you know what I mean, We're supposed
Speaker 1: to not have kne jerk reactions and not remember what
Speaker 1: we just saw last. So if you look at the
Speaker 1: whole body of work, it looks like a little short
Speaker 1: spread for me. So even though I agree with the
Speaker 1: Indianapolist side, I don't think there's any line value there,
Speaker 1: and that's why I haven't bet the game. A few
Speaker 1: things here, just to wrap up the conversation on this,
Speaker 1: Andy Reid certainly something's got to give the playoff woes
Speaker 1: uh And as Marco said, we don't have to look
Speaker 1: even past Las next year to UH see another bad
Speaker 1: Andy Reid playoff loss. But Andy Reid off of Bye
Speaker 1: quite quite good. So here he's got the extra rest
Speaker 1: twenty and four straight up lifetime with an extra week
Speaker 1: rest sixteen and eight against the spread. The other thing
Speaker 1: we talked about, all your home road splits have never
Speaker 1: been as stark as they have been this year in
Speaker 1: the NFL. And the Chiefs are seven and one straight up.
Speaker 1: Now we're talking at home on the season. Of course,
Speaker 1: they're giving five and a half in this case, but
Speaker 1: keep in mind those home road splits, which brings us
Speaker 1: to home road splits in this next game. Oh oh,
Speaker 1: one more thing on that last game. Just a PostScript
Speaker 1: on the Houston Texans if I could. I love DeShawn Watson,
Speaker 1: and I'm not saying this hot take after the fact,
Speaker 1: but I was tweeting it while it was happening when
Speaker 1: they were down fourteen nothing and twenty one and nothing,
Speaker 1: and Deshaun Watson was doing all those historyonics with the
Speaker 1: first down signals and stuff that is such a bad
Speaker 1: look in that game like that was embarrassing. And he
Speaker 1: was throwing Donovan McNabb like warm burners the entire game long.
Speaker 1: So I don't know what the story was with that team.
Speaker 1: I know DeAndre Hopkins got hurt midway through. Certainly was
Speaker 1: a bad look forward to Shaun and the Texans all
Speaker 1: the way around in that game. As far as the
Speaker 1: home road splits in this next one, Dallas at the Rams.
Speaker 1: That's the second game on Saturday, Dallas coming off win
Speaker 1: over the Seahawks, talk about another team doing bad things.
Speaker 1: Seahawks play calling in that game against the Cowboys very questionable,
Speaker 1: very successful in the passing game, not so much in
Speaker 1: the running game. I get it that you game plan
Speaker 1: that way because you're a successful running team all season
Speaker 1: long and that's who you are. But really very little
Speaker 1: adjustment headed into the second half on the Seahawks part.
Speaker 1: Cowboys hold on for dear life after the worst on
Speaker 1: side kicking history to twenty two. That number folds right
Speaker 1: in that spot where honestly, everybody should have made money.
Speaker 1: Everybody should have made money on that game. But lesson
Speaker 1: and getting the best of the number. And then it's
Speaker 1: the Rams. Rams seven and one at home. This year's
Speaker 1: straight up thirteen and three, number two seed in the
Speaker 1: National Football Conference. Rams seven point favorites. This is the
Speaker 1: one game where it has stood at seven the whole
Speaker 1: way through. Probably gonna stay at seven, although it's seven
Speaker 1: with that extra juice right now. Consensus total in this
Speaker 1: one is forty nine and a half. Previous game Indianapolis
Speaker 1: in the Chiefs was fifty seven. Case we failed to
Speaker 1: mention that. Think about the contrast between the totals this
Speaker 1: week and last week, where we have the three games
Speaker 1: that were right about forty one and forty two, So
Speaker 1: this one's forty nine and a half. Marco, do the
Speaker 1: Cowboys have a puncher's chance here? And did they catch
Speaker 1: a major break that the Eagles won? And uh, instead
Speaker 1: of having to go to New Orleans, Dallas gets to
Speaker 1: go to l A here. Oh, obviously they catch the
Speaker 1: break as far as not having to go to the
Speaker 1: New Orleans vote and face them. We saw that the
Speaker 1: Rams weren't quite the same team. Um, you know over
Speaker 1: the last month of the season. You have the last
Speaker 1: two weeks, they blew out the Arizona and San Francisco,
Speaker 1: but they could have just slept walk through those games.
Speaker 1: In one and the San Francisco game they put up
Speaker 1: you know, they gave up thirty two points to the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers. Um, you talked about Dallas last week
Speaker 1: and uh, everybody should have won that game. Well, you know,
Speaker 1: I was one of the ones that fell right in
Speaker 1: the middle. I I was there at the two, so
Speaker 1: I pushed and I was on the Cowboys side. And
Speaker 1: I was not a half camper with that game at all.
Speaker 1: And that is probably you know you talk about you know,
Speaker 1: bounces of the ball and you know luck and turnovers.
Speaker 1: That game, the point spread was decided by a hamstring. Okay,
Speaker 1: let's let's let's just be honest about it. Uh, Seattle
Speaker 1: doesn't cover that game. If they have any uh you know,
Speaker 1: have a field goal kicker that they can kick the
Speaker 1: extra points, and it's gonna prove to be even more
Speaker 1: costly for me. Uh. Was in a contest to Mark Lawrences.
Speaker 1: And I know you've had Marked on the show, you
Speaker 1: know a few times, the Wise Guy contest. I I
Speaker 1: cost myself. I believe it was second place in that one. Uh,
Speaker 1: because they used they set number and when the contest
Speaker 1: plays were entered, the line was two and a half
Speaker 1: on Dallas with that one. And uh, it's gonna cost
Speaker 1: me a little bit of money there. But for this game, guy, Um,
Speaker 1: I like the Dallas side. But as we go through
Speaker 1: these four games, this will probably be the weakest of
Speaker 1: the four. And it's because if they do fall behind,
Speaker 1: I'm still not sold on Dak Prescott. He's played well,
Speaker 1: he made some good throws in that Seattle game. Um,
Speaker 1: he pressed me with some of the throws that he
Speaker 1: did make. But this is a team that now they've
Speaker 1: got to go out on the road. The Rams have
Speaker 1: had the extra week off to regroup. Uh Todd Gurley.
Speaker 1: They rested him the last couple of weeks to get him,
Speaker 1: you know, to a hundred percent, and they're gonna need
Speaker 1: him a lot because we all talked about at numerous
Speaker 1: times the Rams offense just didn't seem the same after
Speaker 1: they lost Uh, Cooper Cup. That is Jared Goss's security blanket.
Speaker 1: He was the leading receiver whenever a play was breaking down.
Speaker 1: That's the guy he looked to and bailed him out.
Speaker 1: And that's gonna be the question mark in this game.
Speaker 1: From a fundamental stand I'm gonna go old school and
Speaker 1: say you give me the better team or the better
Speaker 1: defense getting points. That's where I'm gonna line up at.
Speaker 1: But I'll be honest with you, and I know, Gil
Speaker 1: I played this game with you a couple of times
Speaker 1: this year. If your life depended on it and you've
Speaker 1: were given one teaser to save your soul, here, do
Speaker 1: you feel more comfortable with using the you know, the
Speaker 1: six point teaser and going and let's hell, let's be
Speaker 1: let's give you the full seven if you want, do
Speaker 1: you want to go to fourteen with Dallas or do
Speaker 1: you want to go to pick with the Rams. It's
Speaker 1: a great question, But if your life depended on it,
Speaker 1: I think you take the Rams. And that's my exactly
Speaker 1: and that is my only concern because this could get ugly.
Speaker 1: But I have the lead to the Cowboys. I think
Speaker 1: they will be able to run the football. Fundamentally, You've
Speaker 1: got a great running team going against the worst team
Speaker 1: it's stopping the run in the NFL, and when you
Speaker 1: think of who they got up front, it is mind
Speaker 1: boggling that they're so bad. I think that some of
Speaker 1: that is a little bit misleading that in earlier in
Speaker 1: the season they had such big leads in games that
Speaker 1: when teams were running the football, you totally catch them
Speaker 1: by surprising it catches and inflates the yards per carry
Speaker 1: some because you know you're gonna give up those yards
Speaker 1: on the ground when you're winning by three touchdowns. But
Speaker 1: I still think Dallas is gonna be able to move
Speaker 1: the ball enough, and their defense is played uh really well. Uh.
Speaker 1: Over the last half of the season, and that's a
Speaker 1: direct result, as we talked last week, how Amari Cooper
Speaker 1: has made this team better on both sides of the football.
Speaker 1: Small lean to Dallas, this is my weakest of the four,
Speaker 1: weakest of the four. You know, Chris might know this.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you guys know this. Uh. Pinnacle
Speaker 1: tinny uh teaser protection on the Rams and the Saints.
Speaker 1: So if you tried teasing the Rams and the Saints,
Speaker 1: they'll only let you tease down the favorites to three,
Speaker 1: but the but the on the reverse side, they make
Speaker 1: up for the difference, right, so you could get the
Speaker 1: dogs for greater than the amount teas. So in other words,
Speaker 1: if it's a six point tease, they'll only let you
Speaker 1: tease down the favorites to three, but the discrepancy what
Speaker 1: they left out they'll give you on the dog side,
Speaker 1: you'll so you'll end up getting the dogs for like
Speaker 1: plus sixteen, roughly speaking, if you understand what I'm saying.
Speaker 1: So they stagger that for teaser protection purposes, the offshore
Speaker 1: way to do that at Pinnacle, Well, they have to
Speaker 1: start doing something about teasers in the playoffs. The books
Speaker 1: are just getting murdered on those so the Pinnacle isn't
Speaker 1: the same company. That's a whole. You know, another discussion
Speaker 1: to be had, right, you know, with with owners of policies.
Speaker 1: They're changing every single facet of any value that they
Speaker 1: used to offer across the board of every bet and
Speaker 1: wager that they accept across every sport. So they're they're
Speaker 1: no longer the the the huge value place to be
Speaker 1: found off shore. Yeah, and I would say the Pinnacle
Speaker 1: lean is not what it once was either. Well of course,
Speaker 1: because and it's much easier. They've lowered their limits significantly,
Speaker 1: so it's much easier to uh TO to smooth those
Speaker 1: lines for much less money. I tweeted out the middle
Speaker 1: of the season, I've bet a n C double a
Speaker 1: football game on a late Thursday afternoon for a thousand
Speaker 1: dollars and moved at the five or six cents. I
Speaker 1: couldn't believe it. And then the other thing that people
Speaker 1: are using with these money lines, with these Pinnacle lines
Speaker 1: is there are so many offshore books that automatically follow Pinnacle.
Speaker 1: It's worth it for people to move Pinnacle the wrong
Speaker 1: direction so that they can get down huge money at
Speaker 1: the off screen shops. The mirror pinnacles so a lot
Speaker 1: of manipulation, a lot of manipulation Ace Dallas at the Rams.
Speaker 1: If you stretch this back now to New England Atlanta,
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl between the Patriots and the Falcons. So
Speaker 1: when the Patriots came roaring back against the Falcons down
Speaker 1: three in that Super Bowl, not only one the game,
Speaker 1: but had the nerve to cover that game as a favorite.
Speaker 1: As we all so vivid recall, since that time, it
Speaker 1: has been the revenge of the underdogs of the NFL playoffs.
Speaker 1: So he extended back to just after that game, fourteen
Speaker 1: and one against the spread run for underdogs, uh, including
Speaker 1: four and oh last week the only underdog not to
Speaker 1: cover in that stretch last year and this year, uh,
Speaker 1: the Titans against the Patriots in this divisional round. How
Speaker 1: do you feel about the Cowboys and the Rams? Will
Speaker 1: the dog bark here? Real quickly? I just wanted to
Speaker 1: add on top of what Chris said, and he has
Speaker 1: on point, and I think nothing is more important than
Speaker 1: that fact because in today's handicap and world, there's so
Speaker 1: much talk about line moves, reverse line moves, steam, the
Speaker 1: sharp side, the hot game, all that nonsense. UM, and
Speaker 1: I can tell you from experience and I touched on
Speaker 1: it on the podcast over and over any on screen account,
Speaker 1: I get I hand off, and I said, I don't
Speaker 1: even want a piece of it. I don't even take
Speaker 1: a percentage of it. I don't even want a three
Speaker 1: roll because I don't want to work off built on
Speaker 1: that hunt, because I know it's used to manipulate the
Speaker 1: market and nothing else. So you've got to be so
Speaker 1: careful in today's world trying to pick off. If that's
Speaker 1: your approach, you know, to piggyback the sharp side, good
Speaker 1: luck with it if you don't have a source that
Speaker 1: actually is moving the stuff. Um, and as it high
Speaker 1: up on that food chain as well. UM. Now in
Speaker 1: this round, you have to remember, um, we talked about
Speaker 1: it last week, and you always bring out the status
Speaker 1: pick the winner, forget the spread. Um. You know last
Speaker 1: week the wild card round it's close to nine at
Speaker 1: a ten times the spread don't even matter in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: This divisional round is actually the lowest correlation two point
Speaker 1: spread and winner. It's down the seventy eight percent. I
Speaker 1: think you go back fifteen plus years, so this is
Speaker 1: the one lowest round and then in the conference finals
Speaker 1: it goes back up again. And the super Bowl goes
Speaker 1: back down again. UM, so the spread does kind of
Speaker 1: matter in this round if it doesn't any UM. With
Speaker 1: that said, I think this line short as well. And
Speaker 1: I'm not one to look at a favorite immediate. And again,
Speaker 1: I worry as as far as the Rams because I
Speaker 1: didn't like when what I saw when they played a
Speaker 1: team like Chicago or even losing the Philadelphia the week after. Um,
Speaker 1: you know, and and they beat up Arizona and Detroit's
Speaker 1: in San Francisco is not all that impressive. UM, And
Speaker 1: Dallas has been playing good down the stretch. But I
Speaker 1: just think that this Rams team is just just way
Speaker 1: better than as simple as I could put it in Dallas.
Speaker 1: And as good as Dallas has been getting back to
Speaker 1: that run, it only works if you're not behind. I mean,
Speaker 1: if they fall behind to the Rams, I don't care
Speaker 1: how bad the Rams rush defense is, you're not gonna
Speaker 1: have to, you know, utilize it much. And Dallas is
Speaker 1: gonna be forced that to come from behind, and that's
Speaker 1: a position I don't think they'll have success in. That's
Speaker 1: why I look at this game as as one that
Speaker 1: could get out of hand. You know that that could
Speaker 1: be a easy double digit, you know, sixteen seventeen point
Speaker 1: when where the teams on the Dallas sign doesn't even
Speaker 1: help you, So save your money. Um. Again, I'm not
Speaker 1: one to really jump all over the favorites, but you
Speaker 1: look at Dallas. They only have a plus fifteen point
Speaker 1: differential for the season, you know, compared to the Rams
Speaker 1: plus one forty three. I mean there's just two different
Speaker 1: football teams. Um. The RAM has been doing it all
Speaker 1: season and Dallas has done it down the stretch. And
Speaker 1: you look, they've done great over the last eight games.
Speaker 1: They've only lost one, the shutout to Indianapolis. Um. But
Speaker 1: they were playing at home. I mean they had Washington
Speaker 1: at home, the Saints at home, Philly at home, Tampa
Speaker 1: at home. UM, Seattle in that playoff game at home.
Speaker 1: Now they got to go on the road, man, and
Speaker 1: I just don't think they're gonna have much success at all. Um.
Speaker 1: I like the Rams in this spot. I think that's
Speaker 1: the safest teaser as far as it looks square. But
Speaker 1: I don't think you could look at it any other way.
Speaker 1: There's no sense and teasing it up. It's either tease
Speaker 1: it down or leave it alone. UM. I haven't bet
Speaker 1: this game. But for me, it's Rams or nothing at all.
Speaker 1: I I don't see anything to make me want to
Speaker 1: take the Dallas Cowboys. And again I had him last week.
Speaker 1: I gave him. I bet the money line. Um, I
Speaker 1: wasn't gonna lay the two or whatever was one and
Speaker 1: a half. So for me, I don't think they're going
Speaker 1: to carry that over. I like the Lambs minus seven here.
Speaker 1: I haven't bet it, like I said, but it's the
Speaker 1: only sign I could look at Zeke for the Cowboys
Speaker 1: last week, Cauze feel Eliott twenty six carries a hundred
Speaker 1: thirty seven yards and the go ahead touchdown in the
Speaker 1: fourth quarter before Dallas had to hold on to that one.
Speaker 1: I will say this to me. The difference in this
Speaker 1: NFL season and any other one that I can remember
Speaker 1: is that every one of the supposed marquee teams, the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: the Rams, the Saints, they're all flawed and we've all
Speaker 1: seen them, especially in the case of the Rams and
Speaker 1: the Saints, just have really bad performances where you're like
Speaker 1: where you're like wow, Like I thought these guys were
Speaker 1: supposed to be good. But in the end, if the
Speaker 1: Rams can't dispatch the Cowboys at home. What are we
Speaker 1: talking about? Yeah, Like, so this is Sean McVey versus
Speaker 1: the Clapper, right, Like, if the Cowboys win this game,
Speaker 1: everything we thought we knew about that the Clapper and
Speaker 1: Sean McVeigh will be completely turned on its head. Well yeah,
Speaker 1: I think the crowd is going to have an effect
Speaker 1: on Los Angeles hustle. Uh. From what I understand, Dallas
Speaker 1: spent years training in in the Los Angeles area and
Speaker 1: has one of their largest crowd bases in that area,
Speaker 1: especially with the Los Angeles being without a team for years.
Speaker 1: But the ticket demand is way up after Dallas was announced,
Speaker 1: and the crowd could be almost fifty fifty. And if
Speaker 1: that can inspire the Rams to play with a chip
Speaker 1: on their shoulder, I don't know what can. Uh. Marco
Speaker 1: really hit on a lot of great points. With the
Speaker 1: Rams being a completely different team with Cooper out, they
Speaker 1: just don't have that same spark. But they're facing Dallas.
Speaker 1: Dallas six and thirteen the last nineteen times they played
Speaker 1: a winning team. Uh. The Rams at home play much
Speaker 1: differently than they do on the road. Also, golf is
Speaker 1: there's twenty two touchdowns versus three interception. He's much more
Speaker 1: comfortable playing there. The Rams defense is doing it their
Speaker 1: plus eleven on turnovers, they're forcing fumbles. Uh. And if
Speaker 1: they don't have the best special teams in the league, uh,
Speaker 1: it's certainly one of the best special teams in the league.
Speaker 1: So UH, there's certainly no My numbers say that I
Speaker 1: should be laying at seven. I really wish it would
Speaker 1: have gone down to six and a half and and
Speaker 1: people have been drinking the Dallas kool aid to bring
Speaker 1: it under the seven. I think certainly we're never going
Speaker 1: to see that. Uh. So I haven't bet the game.
Speaker 1: I'll probably have the Rams and a teaser probably will
Speaker 1: bet the Rams. Uh. And that's where I stand on that.
Speaker 1: But it's it's it's it's it's the weakest of the
Speaker 1: four games. All right, let's go to Sunday, Chargers at
Speaker 1: New England. This to me is maybe the most interesting
Speaker 1: of all the games. Lamar Jackson sack seven times by
Speaker 1: the Chargers last week. The Chargers, even when they were
Speaker 1: up at Baltimore, even when they were up twenty three
Speaker 1: to three, there was this feeling for those of us
Speaker 1: who had the Chargers and who have Chargers futures, were like, Wow,
Speaker 1: this is a kind of stroll kind of game, like
Speaker 1: I almost felt like, and I think I even tweeted
Speaker 1: at the time, Chargers were like, here, go ahead, take
Speaker 1: the game, Ravens, and the Ravens just couldn't do it. Uh,
Speaker 1: they didn't have it. Lamar Jackson was two for eight
Speaker 1: at halftime for seventeen yards and a pick, a zero
Speaker 1: point zero quarterback rating, and the Chargers led twelve to
Speaker 1: nothing on the strength of four field goals at halftime.
Speaker 1: By the way, if you had said before the game, hey,
Speaker 1: one of these two kickers, uh, Justin Tucker and uh
Speaker 1: Michael Badsley's gonna have five field goals, you know what,
Speaker 1: would the odds have been on it being Basley. But
Speaker 1: the Chargers then end up holding on for dear life,
Speaker 1: right because the Ravens go nuts at the end and
Speaker 1: the Ravens actually have the ball with the chance to
Speaker 1: win it at the end. When I was watching that,
Speaker 1: it was kind of surreal, like it happened so fast.
Speaker 1: It was like, this can't be happening, Like I couldn't
Speaker 1: process it. That said, it's not all Lamar Jackson's fault.
Speaker 1: The Ravens offensive line just got murdered by the Chargers
Speaker 1: defensive line, New England their four point if it's now
Speaker 1: this opened a little higher, it's down to four ACE.
Speaker 1: We start with you the totals at forty six and
Speaker 1: a half. You've been talking about how you're surprised that
Speaker 1: the spreads on the Saturday games. Were you surprised that
Speaker 1: this is this low? Yeah, but honestly, power rating wise,
Speaker 1: I kind of made it four, Like I I, what
Speaker 1: can you really make it? Um? Just because of how
Speaker 1: San Diego is playing, you know, and and the road record.
Speaker 1: You got a factor into the team that's won nine
Speaker 1: out of ten games on the road. UM. So I
Speaker 1: wasn't all that shocked. And it is a New England
Speaker 1: team that looks vulnerable this season, and at least from
Speaker 1: the early public money. And again it is so little
Speaker 1: a bit has come in. But I looked at the
Speaker 1: back end of a book I have access to before
Speaker 1: coming on we're doing the podcast, um, and it's Charger money.
Speaker 1: I mean parlay's that were tied in from like NBA
Speaker 1: from earlier in the week that that is live that
Speaker 1: they wont is pending on the Chargers. So that's usually
Speaker 1: like a pre like, uh, what's gonna come it's all
Speaker 1: he's a preview. Whenever I see that stuff early in
Speaker 1: the week, usually come game day, that's the side that's
Speaker 1: one sided. And I'm not gonna be surprised if the
Speaker 1: money does come in on the Chargers, and personally I disagree.
Speaker 1: Um for me, this is New England blindly or leave
Speaker 1: the game alone. Uh. And here's the reason why. Uh.
Speaker 1: In the last fifteen years, fourteen of the last fifteen
Speaker 1: a f C champions have been named Brady, Roethlisberger or Manning.
Speaker 1: Roethlisberger ain't around, Manning isn't around, and there's only one
Speaker 1: guy left standing and that's Tom Brady. So unless until
Speaker 1: New England is ousted from the playoffs, Um, they're the
Speaker 1: team I'm looking at. And I have a little bias.
Speaker 1: I have a future on New England. I give it.
Speaker 1: I bet an NFC team, in an NFC team, and
Speaker 1: New England was my a f C team simply because
Speaker 1: they've been always favored to win the Super Bowl. Remember
Speaker 1: like last year or the year before, they went down
Speaker 1: like a two to one before the season and the
Speaker 1: fact I was able to find six and a half
Speaker 1: or seven to one at one spot. Um, I just
Speaker 1: saw that was just way too much value to pass up.
Speaker 1: And this is the game that I have a future
Speaker 1: on im Like the next one we're gonna talk about that,
Speaker 1: I'm not hedging. Um, I'm not taking the Chargers plus
Speaker 1: four to hedge any of that. Bet Um. I don't
Speaker 1: like the Chargers in this spot at all. Um, I
Speaker 1: think this is New England's game. I get a Charge
Speaker 1: has been playing great on the road, but now you're
Speaker 1: looking at three straight road games. Um, as a team
Speaker 1: that was putting must win situations, you know when you're
Speaker 1: in that over and over and a couple of that,
Speaker 1: which is turning the ball over too much for my liking.
Speaker 1: I mean, here's a team that's got ten turnovers over
Speaker 1: the last four games. Granted they won three or four
Speaker 1: of them and more importantly covered three or four of them,
Speaker 1: but how hard long can you maintain that before there's
Speaker 1: that regression and you're gonna run into a New England
Speaker 1: team that knows how to take advantage of turnovers. Um.
Speaker 1: So for me, I mean, just match up everything to me,
Speaker 1: says New England. Um. Again, I've been on that tail
Speaker 1: end on the other side without even wanting to, because
Speaker 1: I do take percentage of the accounts. And we all
Speaker 1: know how the betting ston to gets light going against
Speaker 1: New England during the regular season because it's always so
Speaker 1: called inflated UM. But this is one of those spots
Speaker 1: that I don't care what I see in any accounts.
Speaker 1: For me, I'm not hedging it. I like New England here, um.
Speaker 1: They think they should win this game by two touchdowns,
Speaker 1: I really do. I'm gonna get some quick information as
Speaker 1: far as the total. I have a difference of opinion.
Speaker 1: One of the the guys I respect the most that
Speaker 1: actually moves lines when he fires bet the on their
Speaker 1: first half and it went twenty three and a half
Speaker 1: down to twenty two and a half UM. But then
Speaker 1: you're seeing this total for the game line coming back up,
Speaker 1: and that is uh, bettingson to get money the accounts
Speaker 1: they've just bet the over forty six forty six and
Speaker 1: a half's or whatever um in there, and that's why
Speaker 1: you're looking at forty seven's probably forty seven and a
Speaker 1: half this morning, totals going back up. So just putting
Speaker 1: that out there, there's a difference in opinion. One likes
Speaker 1: un during the first half, other truth likes over in
Speaker 1: the game. But I like the New England minus four.
Speaker 1: I think you could please or this one in laid
Speaker 1: double digits. Oh, going pleaser. By the way, Christie Andrews,
Speaker 1: inventor of the term pleaser, He's sorry that he never
Speaker 1: copyrighted it. Uh, the Chargers, I guess I'm contractually obligated
Speaker 1: to mention because everybody else is that the Chargers are
Speaker 1: o N seven lifetime against Tom Brady and the Patriots,
Speaker 1: including the playoffs since Philip Rivers became the starter in
Speaker 1: two thousand six. By the way, last thing about Lamar Jackson,
Speaker 1: because I just wanna I want to defend him a
Speaker 1: little bit. His center, his snapper, what the hell was that?
Speaker 1: Like the balls were going over his head. He was
Speaker 1: also whipping in some m that Lamar Jackson couldn't handle.
Speaker 1: That didn't help Lamar Jackson's cause last week either, Chris,
Speaker 1: Where was I going with this game? Oh? I was
Speaker 1: mentioning last game McVey versus the Clapper. Well, some people
Speaker 1: would say it's Bill Belichick versus Anthony Lynd. Do you
Speaker 1: really want to put your money on Anthony Lynn? And
Speaker 1: do you really want to go against Bill Belichick? No
Speaker 1: one has ever gone to the rich House betting against
Speaker 1: Bill Belichick. How do you feel about this game here? Well,
Speaker 1: I was actually looking forward to betting New England until
Speaker 1: I examined my spreadsheet and I was I had really
Speaker 1: wasn't a huge Charger back for the entire season. They
Speaker 1: have such a history of special teams uh sabotaging their success.
Speaker 1: And when you really look at the Chargers, they've solved
Speaker 1: these problems. They're they're atrocious kicking game, believe it or not.
Speaker 1: The guys made forty seven, not of fifty kids. Uh
Speaker 1: they have uh, they their defense, their special teams are
Speaker 1: actually one of the better special teams now in the league.
Speaker 1: And it's a complete reversal of fortunate and that's their
Speaker 1: difference for this team. You know, all the horrible losses
Speaker 1: were you know, in years past, seemed to be for
Speaker 1: nonsense mistakes with special teams in one way or another. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know, if you replace, if you were just betting
Speaker 1: these teams on stats and results, and you took all
Speaker 1: the names and the coaches out of the equation, the
Speaker 1: Patriots wouldn't be favored in this game. I I've read
Speaker 1: a lot of people that that that have the Chargers actually,
Speaker 1: you know, one one and a half point favorites. I
Speaker 1: have it more of a pick them, but there I
Speaker 1: think that there's an acidine amount of value in this game. Uh,
Speaker 1: even though my head wants to bet New England for
Speaker 1: all the reasons they said, Uh, you know, it's a
Speaker 1: more you know a lot of people are gonna have
Speaker 1: that show me attitude. But Uh, I would have liked
Speaker 1: to have been getting more than uh four points. Uh
Speaker 1: it's the only game I bet so far plus four
Speaker 1: and a half. I really look at the Chargers, Uh,
Speaker 1: having an eight teen game road schedule this year so far,
Speaker 1: their home advantage is next to nothing, which you know, really,
Speaker 1: you know, it's probably helpful to the Charges that they
Speaker 1: can just stay more focused a lot, you know, from
Speaker 1: game to game to game to game. Uh, New England
Speaker 1: is so banged up, uh and so average. You know,
Speaker 1: just shocking to me that we're getting points in this
Speaker 1: game with what the Chargers have done on the field
Speaker 1: statistically and what you can see with your eyes and that,
Speaker 1: and that Baltimore team was no slouch. And uh, I
Speaker 1: was very surprised to see how well they did against Baltimore,
Speaker 1: even though Baltimore you know, shot themselves in the foot,
Speaker 1: you still have to do it. You still have to
Speaker 1: perform on the road, and Uh, they're impressive. I think
Speaker 1: there's value with the Chargers. They're impressive. I am in
Speaker 1: the tank for them with futures to win the a
Speaker 1: f C. Primarily, I'm all about the Charges. Baltimore, by
Speaker 1: the way, finished with ninety yards rushing in that game,
Speaker 1: after averaging two twenty nine point six with Jackson at
Speaker 1: the helm during the regular season. I think you put
Speaker 1: it perfectly, Chris, which is this is there's not a
Speaker 1: better example of the historical uh feeling you have about
Speaker 1: the New England Patriots and the historical feeling you have
Speaker 1: about the Chargers and then being able to sort of
Speaker 1: get your brain to throw that to the side and
Speaker 1: think about what is actually the case if you take
Speaker 1: off the names as as you put it off the
Speaker 1: uniforms Chargers, remember if they don't give up that game
Speaker 1: to the Broncos with that ridiculous play call where they
Speaker 1: passed the ball right underneath the two minute warning and
Speaker 1: in effect the incomplete pass gave the Broncos like four
Speaker 1: or five extra plays. Uh, just a ridiculously stupid move.
Speaker 1: It's the Chargers who are the number one seed in
Speaker 1: the a f C. If that doesn't happen. Uh. And
Speaker 1: I asked Marco asked Michael Lombardi on a Numbers game
Speaker 1: on visa this week. You know, we were going through
Speaker 1: all these games and he was saying things about the
Speaker 1: charges like he doesn't know if Philip Rivers is okay,
Speaker 1: he just doesn't trust Anthony Lynn, the charges of historical
Speaker 1: all the things that that we've been touching upon. And
Speaker 1: in the end in which I'll ask you guys this
Speaker 1: at the end of the show, I asked him, Okay,
Speaker 1: so if you had to pick one dog here that
Speaker 1: wins the game out right, He's like, oh, yeah, Chargers.
Speaker 1: You know he threw that all aside and he was like, ok,
Speaker 1: clearly it's the Chargers. Yeah, well, I'm gonna look at
Speaker 1: the Chargers. And we talked about situations as far as
Speaker 1: scheduling goes, and you know, Ace pointed out that this
Speaker 1: will be their third road game in a row. It's
Speaker 1: actually gonna be there fourth in five weeks. And unlike
Speaker 1: when I talked about the Indianapolis game and with the travel, uh,
Speaker 1: this is putting the mileage on They're going from l
Speaker 1: A to Baltimore back to l a back out you know,
Speaker 1: to play in New England, so you couldn't really log
Speaker 1: any more miles than they are during this streak. Uh
Speaker 1: that they're playing um not to mention, not to mention,
Speaker 1: if I might jump in, I'm sorry not to mention that.
Speaker 1: How how much of a shaft have the Chargers gotten
Speaker 1: by not only having to travel but playing the early
Speaker 1: Sunday game on the East Coast two weeks in a row,
Speaker 1: Like that's unprecedented that they got the shaft on that.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, go ahead now, I agree with you. That's
Speaker 1: another great point about it. But you look at the
Speaker 1: Chargers and I look at New England, and you know,
Speaker 1: we don't have to talk about the history, and you know,
Speaker 1: just blindly betting the Patriots at home the last three seasons,
Speaker 1: you're twenty and eight against the spread. You know, that's
Speaker 1: that's nothing to sneeze at. But let's be realistic. New
Speaker 1: England one of the softest schedules in the NFL this year,
Speaker 1: just because of the division they reside in. When you
Speaker 1: get to play the Jets twice, you get to play
Speaker 1: Buffalo twice, once with a rookie quarterback and once without
Speaker 1: and if you remember, the game without was the game
Speaker 1: that they signed Derek Anderson off the street to come
Speaker 1: in and fill and play the Monday night game. I
Speaker 1: mean it's ridiculous, Um, you know. And then Miami wasn't
Speaker 1: anything special this year. So you look at New England,
Speaker 1: they lose Josh Gordon, and I think this is gonna
Speaker 1: be moving forward. Actually one of the bigger hits for
Speaker 1: them because it takes away that deep threat that they
Speaker 1: didn't have all year. I mean, he was becoming a
Speaker 1: go to guy for Brady and this looked like you know,
Speaker 1: prior to this last indiscretion, you know, Bill Belichick does
Speaker 1: it again. He pulls somebody off the you know, the
Speaker 1: trash heap that's been a problem child everywhere and made
Speaker 1: him a productive player. And then what happens. You know,
Speaker 1: he has the relapse. So I think that's gonna hurt.
Speaker 1: Gronk has not been Gronk all year long. He's got
Speaker 1: what three touchdowns this year? Um, you look at him
Speaker 1: in you know the last few games. Uh, he doesn't
Speaker 1: have that explosiveness anymore. Uh. The guys beat up um
Speaker 1: to rely on him to take over a game like
Speaker 1: he used to I can't do. Um. A lot of
Speaker 1: people are gonna look, I think the public perception from
Speaker 1: last week's game and say, you know, the Chargers, as
Speaker 1: much as they dominated, as you said, they never really
Speaker 1: pulled away from Baltimore, settling for the four field goals
Speaker 1: at the beginning of the game, which Anthony Lynn. For
Speaker 1: God's sake, when why do these coaches continue when they're
Speaker 1: inside the you know, the two yard line? Dude, we
Speaker 1: gotta run the on both tight formation all the time.
Speaker 1: Let's just put all twenty two people right altogether, and
Speaker 1: let's just see what happens spread the goddamn field. That
Speaker 1: drives me nuts more than anything else watching a football game.
Speaker 1: And it took them seven attempts because remember they got
Speaker 1: stopped three, picked the field goal, then later in the
Speaker 1: game got stopped three and finally even went on fourth
Speaker 1: down before they got it into the end zone. So
Speaker 1: seven attempts before they got the ball into the end zone. UM,
Speaker 1: change the plays, boys. But this week I think that
Speaker 1: you'll see more of a wide open game. And last
Speaker 1: week the game, we talked about how a game opens
Speaker 1: up and how it develops. And once you saw that
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson was a deer cotton headlights last week. The
Speaker 1: Chargers really never had to push, you know, the gas pedal.
Speaker 1: They didn't have to force the issue because Baltimore wasn't
Speaker 1: gonna do anything. And for anybody uh watching the game,
Speaker 1: we kill you're you know, you're a Washington fan, but
Speaker 1: Baltimore's you know that your next door neighbor. There. Were
Speaker 1: you expecting Flacco at any point? Well, I asked at
Speaker 1: the beginning, I think late in the first half on Twitter,
Speaker 1: I was like, all right, truth serum, if you're a
Speaker 1: Raven's better right now or a Ravens fan, do you
Speaker 1: want Flacco in? And most people at that moment wanted
Speaker 1: Flacco because they're gonna get back your one game thing.
Speaker 1: If you want to win one game, which one of
Speaker 1: those guys that you want. I don't know that Flacco
Speaker 1: would have had better success quite because I think their
Speaker 1: offensive line was getting crushed. But I think it's a
Speaker 1: worthwhile question anyway, Yeah, and it's I thought they should
Speaker 1: have come to Flacco. And then when they didn't bring
Speaker 1: him out in the third quarter and then after the
Speaker 1: first two drives were more of the same for Jackson
Speaker 1: and they didn't bring him in. Then it dawned on
Speaker 1: me and then I figured it out, and then when
Speaker 1: I heard the postgame interview, it confirmed it for me. Obviously,
Speaker 1: we know Flacco is not going to be there next year.
Speaker 1: That that was clear with harbas comments wishing him luck
Speaker 1: and everything else. But that became money, and I don't
Speaker 1: think the organization and that's sad that you would risk
Speaker 1: a playoff game for it, but I don't think they
Speaker 1: wanted to risk him getting hurt on their paycheck because
Speaker 1: they have one one year left on that contract. That's right.
Speaker 1: That's the Robert Griffin thing, the reason the Redskins didn't
Speaker 1: play him his last years because they would have been
Speaker 1: on the hook for what of the nineteen million dollars
Speaker 1: if he gets hurt. That's the one thing that guarantees
Speaker 1: a player's contract is an injury like that. By the way,
Speaker 1: it's a whole another story. That's the reason why the
Speaker 1: Jaguars in essence had to stick with or decided to
Speaker 1: stick with Blake Bortles. That's a whole another story because
Speaker 1: like a risk, injury never really improved, so they were
Speaker 1: an effect on the hook for him for one year,
Speaker 1: so they figured out, let's assign him to a three
Speaker 1: year deal, which effectively is a two year deal. But
Speaker 1: if that injury doesn't happen, they probably don't have Blake
Speaker 1: Bortles as long as you're right, So I think you're
Speaker 1: right about Flacco. The other thing about that is Lamar
Speaker 1: Jackson effectively saved John Harbaugh's job for him. So that
Speaker 1: was another thing we were talking about, is like, does
Speaker 1: he really is he really gonna Poulamar Jackson after that
Speaker 1: guy single handedly saved his job in Baltimore? Should be
Speaker 1: a great game Chargers and the Patriots go ahead. I'm sorry, yeah,
Speaker 1: So for with that said, I think the Chargers are
Speaker 1: the better team. This is the best team Philip Rivers
Speaker 1: has had and and I can remember if any of
Speaker 1: the playoff teams that he's taken, I like them. Here,
Speaker 1: you look at this game going into New England. Remember
Speaker 1: these two teams played last year and it was an
Speaker 1: eight point victory by the Patriots. But that was the
Speaker 1: game that if you watch that game, the Chargers were
Speaker 1: in it from start to finish and they just couldn't
Speaker 1: get that one play to get over the hump. And
Speaker 1: of course, you know Belichick and Brady, everything falls into
Speaker 1: place as he usually does. You can't tell me if
Speaker 1: you just compare from last year to this year. The
Speaker 1: Chargers are a much better team than they were last year,
Speaker 1: and New England has definitely taken a step backwards, so
Speaker 1: that gap is closed. I will be on the Chargers.
Speaker 1: I'm even gonna be a little on the over in
Speaker 1: this game, and then you'll go for the three headed monster,
Speaker 1: get me over ten points. I'm also going to be
Speaker 1: there with something you know, I'll be there on the
Speaker 1: teaser side of things. I um, I said it before,
Speaker 1: I said again. I think the the Chargers Colts five
Speaker 1: six combination is the best five six we've ever seen
Speaker 1: in any playoff bracket since they've gone to this format.
Speaker 1: I mean, they are live to get into the a
Speaker 1: f C Championship. Could you imagine, by the way, the
Speaker 1: Chargers got a home game. By the way, it's not
Speaker 1: called stub Hub anymore. If they get a home game,
Speaker 1: we're gonna learn a new stadium name, some new spots.
Speaker 1: It's not even Stubbub anymore. So we'll see if that happens,
Speaker 1: if those two teams are able to win out right
Speaker 1: before we get to the final game, a reminder, as
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Speaker 1: final game. It's New Orleans hosting the Philadelphia Eagles, the
Speaker 1: defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. The Nick Foles Magic
Speaker 1: Carpet Ride continues. Last week in Chicago, Cody Parky all
Speaker 1: off the upright off the crossbar Eagles hold on for
Speaker 1: a dramatic sixteen fift win after tying it up on
Speaker 1: a fourth and goal from the one folds to Tate
Speaker 1: with just under a minute left um but the Bears
Speaker 1: gotten field goal position. Parky I knew as soon as
Speaker 1: he kicked that through the uprights on the icing one
Speaker 1: where Doug Peterson called time out. I knew when Parky
Speaker 1: sunk that. I was like, Oh, no, he's gonna miss.
Speaker 1: He's gonna mix the next one. There's no question. Foles
Speaker 1: now is seven and oh straight up in elimination games.
Speaker 1: So three and oh in the playoffs last year in
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, as we also famously know, and then
Speaker 1: this year four and oh now three and o in
Speaker 1: the regular season Rams Texans Redskins to close out the season,
Speaker 1: and then last week against the Bears. Is this where
Speaker 1: it ends? Chris, We start with you. The Saints eight
Speaker 1: point favorites totals fifty and a half folds is relatively
Speaker 1: pedestrian at sevent t d s five picks, so he's
Speaker 1: kind of coming down to earth a little bit um
Speaker 1: facing breeze at home was twenty two and one. So
Speaker 1: this I made a mistake. This is actually my weakest
Speaker 1: game of the week. And I didn't do a lot
Speaker 1: of preparation on this game, just because there was just
Speaker 1: so much skewed data. Everybody's making a big deal of
Speaker 1: this forty eight to seven win earlier in the season,
Speaker 1: but you know, Philly was an entirely different team at
Speaker 1: that point. Uh. They were extremely banged up, They had
Speaker 1: a different quarterback Sprowls. I don't think played. I think
Speaker 1: the center got injured. You know, it was just a
Speaker 1: debacle of a comedy of errors, and you have to
Speaker 1: kind of cast that aside. My numbers have this as
Speaker 1: New Orleans supposed to be about nine and a half
Speaker 1: to ten, so I don't see a lot of value
Speaker 1: there and they never never land area. Uh. I'll definitely
Speaker 1: consider teasing this game. I don't think I'm gonna have
Speaker 1: a play on this team unless of miraculous it gets
Speaker 1: down to a seven. Uh, And I kind of think
Speaker 1: that the over and and I don't know the worst
Speaker 1: totals guy ever, so probably should take the under. But
Speaker 1: I kind of think the over might be something to
Speaker 1: look at because there's a little bit of value with
Speaker 1: the low scoring game. Philadelphia is off off of with
Speaker 1: the Bears, but it's going indoors. It's gonna be good weather.
Speaker 1: The Eagles don't really play well on turf. Uh. But
Speaker 1: that's all I can say about this game. It's teaser friendly.
Speaker 1: Teaser friendly. But here's the question. Teaser friendly in both directions, Like,
Speaker 1: it's really almost difficult to call. Do you tease the Saints?
Speaker 1: Do you tease the Eagles? I assume you're talking about
Speaker 1: the Saints. Yeah, I'm talking about the Saint. It's gonna
Speaker 1: be pretty high. You know, books are gonna definitely be
Speaker 1: fading rams New Orleans teasers. Uh. They they're gonna be
Speaker 1: one of those two guys to go down. Yeah, for sure. Marco,
Speaker 1: your thoughts here, well, uh, we promised to somebody on Twitter.
Speaker 1: Hit asked for the podcast this week to mention double joint.
Speaker 1: Uh very good for so uh, I answered dad in
Speaker 1: uh uh when that happened on Sunday night, My god,
Speaker 1: the poor Bears fans, I said, at least though somewhere
Speaker 1: for at least one day, Steve Bartman is not the
Speaker 1: most hated person in Chicago sports history. You see the
Speaker 1: dude on the video that's being you know, sent all around.
Speaker 1: Who's on the Cody Parky Ranta. So with that said, Philadelphia,
Speaker 1: you know, Satan Nick to the rescue continues. I mean,
Speaker 1: right now, Nick Voles could run for mayor Philadelphia and
Speaker 1: win in a landslide. I mean, the guy they love
Speaker 1: him right now. But let's be realistic. Um, last week
Speaker 1: they should not have won. UM. Chicago had every opportunity
Speaker 1: to win that game. UM the fact that they settled
Speaker 1: for field goals again at the beginning of the game.
Speaker 1: And you know, it was one of those things where
Speaker 1: they maybe the inexperience ends of Trabinsky, But you really
Speaker 1: can't blame Mitchell Travisky. We I thought going in that
Speaker 1: that would be the astick to the game. It was
Speaker 1: his first playoff game, but he put up good numbers,
Speaker 1: you you can't fault what he did. He didn't have
Speaker 1: any turnovers. Uh, so you know, a clean game for Trabinsky. Uh.
Speaker 1: They just didn't get the job done. And one of
Speaker 1: the plays that I go back to, first of all,
Speaker 1: for folds as good as the game as he had,
Speaker 1: he did have two horrible throws. UM the interception in
Speaker 1: the end zone. I don't know what he was looking
Speaker 1: at coverage wise there that was horrible. And then the
Speaker 1: other one, uh, the first one of the game. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, could have proved costly, but he bounced back,
Speaker 1: kept them in position. But nobody talks about the stupid
Speaker 1: play of the Bears. Right when they regained momentum after
Speaker 1: their score. I think it was late third quarter, maybe
Speaker 1: early fourth um. They had Philadelphia pinned deep and there
Speaker 1: was that third down and long and the guy you know,
Speaker 1: could have pulled it in but had dropped it. And
Speaker 1: then they get the call for the defenseless. The second
Speaker 1: receipt defender comes in and just levels them, lights them up,
Speaker 1: and they get the uns you know, defenseless uh defender
Speaker 1: unnecessary roughness call. They kept that drive alive, Chicago would
Speaker 1: have got the ball back. It probably midfield in momentum
Speaker 1: at that time, if they don't have that one game
Speaker 1: changing you know, Gaff, you know with the penalty. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I was on the Bears in that game. I'm I'm
Speaker 1: a little sour with it. But you know, they had
Speaker 1: their opportunity. They make the two point conversion. It's a
Speaker 1: seven point game, not sitting on five and everything else.
Speaker 1: But can they can they close a forty one point
Speaker 1: gap from the first meeting? Uh? You know they got
Speaker 1: drilled forty eight to seven. Yes that was with Carson
Speaker 1: Wentz and yes, they had injuries at the time, and
Speaker 1: they're playing better. But the Saints team, you know, their machine.
Speaker 1: Unfortunately the last few weeks, you know, the offense hasn't
Speaker 1: looked the same. Did this Saints peak too soon? That's
Speaker 1: my only concern with the Saints. Will I lay the
Speaker 1: points with them? If you ask me, do I feel
Speaker 1: better with taking the Saints are taking the Eagles. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna tell you, I'm gonna take the Saints. Am I
Speaker 1: gonna take teasers? Absolutely, I'll be honest. I am a
Speaker 1: little bit surprised though, Guys. I thought that this was
Speaker 1: the game that the number would be sitting at nine
Speaker 1: to block the teasers. The fact that you know, we
Speaker 1: didn't see it go to nine um a little bit.
Speaker 1: You know, they're they're getting enough money on the Eagles
Speaker 1: and people are buying into this. They are the defending
Speaker 1: Super Bowl champs. And as you said, Gil, they've been
Speaker 1: in playoff mode for a month. You can't fault that,
Speaker 1: you know, mentality whenever a team is playing that way.
Speaker 1: But once again, we've got another team and I don't
Speaker 1: remember a playoff where we had as many teams playing
Speaker 1: three straight road games. This is another one. Now granted,
Speaker 1: you know, again it's not the worst of it. There's
Speaker 1: not an East coast West coast in there. You know,
Speaker 1: they're playing Washington, Chicago, and New Orleans. But it's still
Speaker 1: it's three road games in a row. And guys, if
Speaker 1: you look, it's actually five of the last six on
Speaker 1: the road for Philadelphia. At some point, this magical circus
Speaker 1: ride is gonna come to an end, and it has
Speaker 1: the makings of when it does come to an end,
Speaker 1: it comes hard. And Philippa and Philadelphia they got to
Speaker 1: exercise those demons from the first game. You know, if
Speaker 1: they're in this early, they can stay in this all
Speaker 1: the way. But what happens if they fall behind fourteen
Speaker 1: nothing and visions of that first game come creeping back in.
Speaker 1: I got this. I have a week vote for the Saints.
Speaker 1: I've got a very strong vote for the Saints. On teasers,
Speaker 1: Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles tries it again. There's a
Speaker 1: few things about the game. One Christie Andrews did did
Speaker 1: open the Saints as a nine point favorite at the
Speaker 1: South Point in Las Vegas teaser protection, but he, you know,
Speaker 1: at least early on tactical error, he even admits, because
Speaker 1: the money then came in on the Eagles, so it
Speaker 1: was not at all what he anticipated there early on.
Speaker 1: A few things about that game last week that that
Speaker 1: sort of get lost. First of all, how great was
Speaker 1: the mascot reaction when the field goal when they feel
Speaker 1: this is a phenomenal Bears mascot reacted. Um. But the
Speaker 1: the time out that Doug Peterson called right before fourth down.
Speaker 1: You know a lot of people are like, oh, it
Speaker 1: was genius because they planned to play, and I'm like, nah,
Speaker 1: not at the time, it wasn't. That was a very
Speaker 1: that gets washed away in history because they convert the
Speaker 1: one yard past the Golden Tate and so that time out,
Speaker 1: which would have effectively been a death knell for the
Speaker 1: Eagles if they don't convert their that kind of got
Speaker 1: washed away in history in my opinion, Golden Tate, which
Speaker 1: I said at the at the trade deadline, I'm like,
Speaker 1: I get it that this is a very active NFL
Speaker 1: trade deadline, but like the Lion's willingness to trade him
Speaker 1: to a um Fends opponent, like a potential wild card
Speaker 1: race opponent, didn't happen for the lines, but they're Golden
Speaker 1: Tate justified his old trade value in one play. And
Speaker 1: then um the last thing the Bears when they went
Speaker 1: up fifteen to ten, that two point conversion attempt where
Speaker 1: they tried the gadget play with like Khalil Mack in
Speaker 1: the game running in motion that failed. Like that to
Speaker 1: me was like a two point play you try when
Speaker 1: you're up nineteen trying to go up twenty one, not
Speaker 1: when you're up five in a division round playoff game.
Speaker 1: And like Naggie was all smiles about it when Khalil
Speaker 1: Mack was coming off the field, I was like, that
Speaker 1: is not a time to smile. And last thing and
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, and as I'll go to you right here,
Speaker 1: but I do think it deserves to be brought up
Speaker 1: one last time. Naggy's decision to beat the Minnesota Vikings.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, Like I know people are like, but this
Speaker 1: is not a second guess. I first guessed this, So
Speaker 1: I'm not just bringing it up because of the result.
Speaker 1: Even if Cody Parky makes that field goal, I'm still
Speaker 1: talking about it. Naggi's decision to say, you know what,
Speaker 1: we're just gonna we see the football team in front
Speaker 1: of us, We're gonna beat the football team in front
Speaker 1: of us. That's how we play. Whoever we play, we play,
Speaker 1: and they end up with the Eagles. Well, I do
Speaker 1: think that it's worth questioning that once again. I questioned
Speaker 1: at the time, I'll question it again. I really do
Speaker 1: believe that they should have played that differently. Your thoughts
Speaker 1: on this game. I think this is the most difficult
Speaker 1: game the handicap because they played already. And what I
Speaker 1: mean by that is they played just into in November,
Speaker 1: I mean mid November, not all that long ago. Um.
Speaker 1: And granted different quarterback situation, but we're supposed to be
Speaker 1: able to quantify what the change is, UM, the drop
Speaker 1: off for you know, an increase but what that said,
Speaker 1: we had a seven point line in that game and
Speaker 1: the Things blow them out seven. So as sharp betters,
Speaker 1: you're you're not supposed to overjust meaning if they were
Speaker 1: going to play the following week, you may shade it
Speaker 1: a little bit. What a half a point one point
Speaker 1: at the most um based on perception, But what that said,
Speaker 1: Now we have to factor in the changing quarterback, the
Speaker 1: drop off from whence the Folds. I think most guys
Speaker 1: make it about one one and a half points at
Speaker 1: that at the most um, But then you add in
Speaker 1: how Folds has been playing, especially the last two games,
Speaker 1: where you know we could do no wrong more or
Speaker 1: less UM, And I agree with Chris, I thought the
Speaker 1: line would be higher, closer to that double digit range. UM.
Speaker 1: For me, this is simple and I'm just gonna share
Speaker 1: as much information as I can. UM. And I obviously
Speaker 1: no secret. I have a future on the Saints and
Speaker 1: they were fifteen the one, so there's a lot of
Speaker 1: equity there. And for me, it's always the decision do
Speaker 1: I hedge with a chance of a middle or do
Speaker 1: I leave it alone? And for me, the only time
Speaker 1: I hedge is if I like the other side, if
Speaker 1: I think the other side has value. I don't like
Speaker 1: to give up equity, especially when you have them by
Speaker 1: the balls, because you have them by the ball so
Speaker 1: few times. Um. And with that said, here's the game
Speaker 1: where I I thought, Saints at home, uh against the Eagles,
Speaker 1: who granted their stats on the road are are pretty
Speaker 1: line up with what they are at home. You know,
Speaker 1: it's like they really uh regress when they go on
Speaker 1: the road. UM. But we now have dominant the Saints are.
Speaker 1: We know their home field advantage. It's it's been well
Speaker 1: established now for a long time. And I thought, Okay,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be in a great position. Don't even have
Speaker 1: to hedge this. Saints aren't gonna lose it. And then
Speaker 1: everything changed on Someday because as soon as those lines
Speaker 1: came out and there were nine and a half, there
Speaker 1: were ten up there ten minus one twenty UM to
Speaker 1: take the Eagles, and uh, the group that's done the
Speaker 1: best for me in the NFL took Philadelphia in every
Speaker 1: single account, all the way down to as low as
Speaker 1: plus eight and a half UM. So it was as
Speaker 1: legit of a position as they can take. Uh. And
Speaker 1: that made my decision very easy. I too, will be
Speaker 1: hedging my future bet, hopefully middlely by having the Saints
Speaker 1: winning the game between one and eight points. Um. But again,
Speaker 1: that's what I could pass along, that that very established,
Speaker 1: long respected winner is on Philadelphia and likes them a lot.
Speaker 1: And I do radio in New Orleans every week, and
Speaker 1: I had built some good contacts there um, including one
Speaker 1: that that is in the Saints locker room a lot.
Speaker 1: And without really giving a name or anything, the exact
Speaker 1: text I got maybe two or three days ago is dude,
Speaker 1: I'm about to make the biggest bet I've ever made
Speaker 1: on Philadelphia. Am I on the right side? Like he
Speaker 1: wanted to know why I have any information on the game.
Speaker 1: This is the guy who loves the Saints, follows the Saints,
Speaker 1: is in the Saints locker room, and it's telling me
Speaker 1: this line is way too high. Any indication as to
Speaker 1: why he said that to you though, No, No, I
Speaker 1: mean you know, it was on text back and forth
Speaker 1: like that. It wasn't like really talking to him and
Speaker 1: digging into it. But um, yeah, he was just like,
Speaker 1: I went to place my biggest bet. And it's been
Speaker 1: rare over the last seven years I've been doing radio
Speaker 1: there um. I think maybe ten times as he reached
Speaker 1: out like that, and is when percentage has been pretty good,
Speaker 1: whether on the Saints or against the Saints. So the
Speaker 1: fact two of those sources came in against New Orleans
Speaker 1: makes me worried about my future. And to me, I'm
Speaker 1: tagging Philadelphia man again. I'm not the smartest guy in
Speaker 1: the room. I try to surround myself with smart people.
Speaker 1: And when you do that, you gotta live and do
Speaker 1: him on a gage and else why surround yourself? All? Right?
Speaker 1: Final questions here, guys. You can answer this one with
Speaker 1: one word. The underdog then most likely to win outright
Speaker 1: this weekend in your opinion, Chris is Chargers, Marco, Chargers, Colts, Oh,
Speaker 1: I like it? Phrase one phrase to answer this question?
Speaker 1: The game you like least? Chris? You already mentioned it again? Uh,
Speaker 1: Philly New Orleans, Marco, Dallas rams A Philly New Orleans
Speaker 1: because I I can't beat okay. Uh. Last thing, I
Speaker 1: am in Atlantic City to do a shoot with j
Speaker 1: Rute from MGM here at Borgata. But in a couple
Speaker 1: of days, I am going to Jersey City with a partner. Uh,
Speaker 1: and we're entering the draft. Kings Sports Betting National Championship,
Speaker 1: which is this funky little formatted contest that has just
Speaker 1: gotten publicity recently. Really, it wasn't well promoted early on
Speaker 1: Chris any words of advice. You're the contest king, and
Speaker 1: why aren't you doing this? Or are you doing this?
Speaker 1: You know you touched on it exactly. I can't believe
Speaker 1: under promoted it. It was. I just found out about
Speaker 1: it last weekend for the first time. From what I understand,
Speaker 1: there's a big overlay warning that there's so few entries.
Speaker 1: Last number I saw it was about a hundred and
Speaker 1: forty people entered, and I'm sure there'll be a lot
Speaker 1: of late entries. But um, when we won the Wayne Contest,
Speaker 1: we were fortunate enough that there was a huge overlay
Speaker 1: on that one because they had the guaranteed one thousand
Speaker 1: dollar first prize and there was only about six d
Speaker 1: people entered. So, uh, they took a big bath on
Speaker 1: that one. And I don't know what the what the
Speaker 1: top prize and this one you just mentioned is. But uh,
Speaker 1: you know, anytime you're in an overlay situation, you're getting
Speaker 1: great value. But unfortunately I don't know the format of it, uh,
Speaker 1: other than I believe you can bet any bets that
Speaker 1: is allowed on the draft Kings app or that they offer.
Speaker 1: So I think you're going to be fighting people that
Speaker 1: are going to be very selective with props and very
Speaker 1: unusual bets. The people that are gonna win this contest
Speaker 1: are not going to be the people betting the normal bets.
Speaker 1: Are overtly recognizable that there are people out there that
Speaker 1: I know that are already out there that will find
Speaker 1: the holes and the weaknesses. So it's basically similar to
Speaker 1: going into a horse racing, uh handicapping contest and you're
Speaker 1: facing people that you know are great friends with all
Speaker 1: the barns and owners and stuff, and you're supposed to,
Speaker 1: you know, beat those guys. So, uh, it's gonna be
Speaker 1: a tough contest. It's it would be very interesting to
Speaker 1: see the road of selections at the winner uh takes
Speaker 1: and wins with I agree with everything you said. I
Speaker 1: think your spot on it. With all that, there will
Speaker 1: be an overlay and um, you know that's one of
Speaker 1: the reasons why smart people decided, hey, wait a minute,
Speaker 1: this is something we should we might want to enter.
Speaker 1: Um and I'm not talking about me, I'm talking about
Speaker 1: lots of other groups that have decided to do it
Speaker 1: here in the late going, and I think you're right.
Speaker 1: I think most of the people, sort of the non
Speaker 1: sports bettors who get in, more of the fantasy players,
Speaker 1: they'll they'll do a t s and they'll just try
Speaker 1: to roll it over and make it bigger and bigger,
Speaker 1: and they'll crap out. And I think the smart players
Speaker 1: do play props, do play, you know, some of the
Speaker 1: more let's put it off the off the radar things
Speaker 1: we have our let's not forget there. There's limits to
Speaker 1: those bets. And with Kings, I'm sure the limits are
Speaker 1: low and it's all based on your account. You you're
Speaker 1: betting real money, actual money. So if you can only
Speaker 1: get three d on a promp and the other guy
Speaker 1: could put two thousand on a side or total, I
Speaker 1: mean he gives him. You know, how much are you
Speaker 1: gonna build it up dooring through the prompts? So you
Speaker 1: gotta factor that into Draft Kings Sports Betting National Championship.
Speaker 1: If you're interested here in the final going, if you
Speaker 1: can move on a drop of a dime, it's DraftKings
Speaker 1: dot Com slash s b n C. DraftKings dot Com
Speaker 1: slash SPNC Million Dollar first prizes, two and a half
Speaker 1: million dollar contest, ten thousand dollar entry fee, and then
Speaker 1: a five thousand dollar bankroll. Yeah, the way it works
Speaker 1: this is like this. You you've put up ten thousand
Speaker 1: dollars entry fee. They credit five thousand of that ten
Speaker 1: into a draft Kings account for you. So you have
Speaker 1: a draft Kings sports book account on your phone and
Speaker 1: they will have five thousand dollars in there. You have
Speaker 1: to bet at least the thousand dollars each of the
Speaker 1: first two days Friday and Saturday. You could bet anything
Speaker 1: in that app, so it'll have sides, totals, all the
Speaker 1: sports prompts, whatever you want for the limits that Draftings allows.
Speaker 1: And again you've got to bet at least a thousand
Speaker 1: dollars each of two days. Now Sunday, you have to
Speaker 1: bet at least two thousand dollars on the NFL divisional games,
Speaker 1: the first one, the second one, both of them. Whatever
Speaker 1: you want to do, and your final bets you could
Speaker 1: make are up until that second game kicks off. And
Speaker 1: then when when it's all over and that second game
Speaker 1: is done, whoever has won the most money over to
Speaker 1: three days, you qualify for the top prize through if
Speaker 1: they paid twenty five positions. But what the beauty is
Speaker 1: the five thousand that's credited to your account. Any money
Speaker 1: you wont is yours. So I mean, even if you
Speaker 1: just don't break even, you get your five thousand back,
Speaker 1: you cash out your account, you leave, you know. So
Speaker 1: it's a great contest. And in fact, you know, like
Speaker 1: I said, I'm trying to get out there. I'm looking
Speaker 1: for flights and stuff like that. I just thought it
Speaker 1: was next week and I found out about it yesterday,
Speaker 1: So I'm having that logistic problems to to get out there.
Speaker 1: But I think it's definitely worth going. And you're right
Speaker 1: the word I think you used this word, but whatever,
Speaker 1: it is all paraphrase. The trajectory of their bets, the
Speaker 1: the route they take to the championship. That will be
Speaker 1: fascinating to find out in the end. Las Vegas Chris
Speaker 1: Multiple Handicapping Contest champ appreciate it, man, Thank you for
Speaker 1: doing this. I know I've jacked up your lunch hour,
Speaker 1: so thank you. Marco D'Angelo Ace, Thank you guys. Thanks
Speaker 1: for having two weeks away from the Depraved Vegas Lifestyle
Speaker 1: Show Championship round in between that. Good luck with all
Speaker 1: your bets this week, and everybody thanks so much for listening.