1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,680 Speaker 1: So was there a point as the journey continued and 2 00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:08,039 Speaker 1: you noticed these things where you thought Trump may have 3 00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:11,039 Speaker 1: a shot, and if not Trump, someone like him is coming. 4 00:00:11,760 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 1: Or was it only afterwards you pieced it together and 5 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:26,640 Speaker 1: thought I should have seen it. Welcome to Bloomberg Benchmark, 6 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 1: a podcast about the global economy. I'm Daniel Moss, executive 7 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 1: editor for Global Economics based in New York, and I'm 8 00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 1: Scott Landman, an economy editor for Bloomberg in Washington. So 9 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 1: America's unemployment rate is four point seven percent, close to 10 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:46,519 Speaker 1: what most economists define as full employment. Consumer confidence is 11 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:49,919 Speaker 1: back to where it was before the financial crisis. Wages 12 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 1: are finally starting to pick up. So why the discontent, 13 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 1: why the division and all the handwringing about our and 14 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 1: it is our place in the world. Our guest, Robert D. Kaplan, 15 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 1: has some unique observations. He spent three weeks on a 16 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:08,000 Speaker 1: coast to coast road trip last year and just published 17 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 1: Earning the Rockies, How geography shapes America's role in the world. 18 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 1: Bob's a senior fellow at the Center for a New 19 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:19,319 Speaker 1: American Security, a senior advisor at Eurasia Group. He held 20 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:22,839 Speaker 1: positions at the U. S. Naval Academy, the Defense Policy Board. 21 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:26,040 Speaker 1: He's the author of Balkan Ghosts. The list goes on 22 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 1: and on. Bob, if I missed anything, No, but it 23 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 1: was five weeks actually that ipent driving, and it was 24 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:36,960 Speaker 1: one of several road trips that I took across America. Well, 25 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:40,760 Speaker 1: it's fabulous to have you here, unless we're missing something. 26 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 1: You came away something of an optimist. So what is 27 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 1: the dominant narrative with its obsessions about inequality, declinism, surging 28 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 1: sales of George orwell, what's that missing? I think what 29 00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:59,040 Speaker 1: I saw, And I took my trip in the spring 30 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 1: of teen, about nine months before the first presidential primaries, 31 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 1: when Donald Trump was just a failed celebrity New York 32 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 1: real estate developer who people who read The New York 33 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 1: Post knew about, but not not many other people. And 34 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:20,840 Speaker 1: that wasn't the policy, right, It wasn't. What I came 35 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 1: away with were several things. First, probably the most important, 36 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:28,839 Speaker 1: is that the very the middle class, the very thing 37 00:02:28,919 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 1: we pay lip service to celebrate assume exists, was disappearing 38 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:38,919 Speaker 1: before my eyes. What I saw once I got away 39 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 1: from the coasts and away from the college towns and 40 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:47,360 Speaker 1: away from a few successful big cities like Chicago and 41 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 1: Des Moines in Denver and Kansas City, was a country 42 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 1: where assert a small amount had drifted upwards into the 43 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 1: global cosmopolitan up or middle class elite sipping chardonnay at 44 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 1: fine restaurants, even in western Nebraska, even in eastern Wyoming. 45 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:11,080 Speaker 1: Because the red blue divide is not as clear cut 46 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:14,400 Speaker 1: in person as it is on the TV screens. But 47 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:19,160 Speaker 1: the much larger percentage of people that I saw, which 48 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 1: used to be the middle class with drifting downward into 49 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 1: a precarious blue collar existence that was one or two 50 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 1: misfortunes away from poverty. And that's what you saw. You 51 00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 1: saw this stark differentiation between people who were had benefited 52 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 1: from globalization and people who had been left behind by it. 53 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 1: It's almost as if the American continent, the interior continent, 54 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:52,120 Speaker 1: has been swept into the world through globalization, cyber all 55 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 1: of that, and a part of the population has done 56 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 1: magnificently with it. But a much larger population simply can 57 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 1: not compete and find that their lives. They're employed, but 58 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 1: they hate their jobs. Their lives are full of worries. 59 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 1: When you overhear conversations and restaurant bars, et cetera. Everyone 60 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:19,920 Speaker 1: is worrying about taking care of elderly relatives, UH, pensions, UH, 61 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:24,679 Speaker 1: their medical problems, getting health insurance. Um. It's a country 62 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:29,520 Speaker 1: united by people's worries, where in twenty fifteen I heard 63 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:34,600 Speaker 1: very little discussion of politics, and I think what unite. 64 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:38,839 Speaker 1: The explanation for that is that Donald Trump represented a 65 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 1: kind of anti politics. Well, I'm wondering now if I've 66 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:47,160 Speaker 1: misread portions of the book, because there is a strain 67 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 1: of optimism that comes up, and you derive that directly 68 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:58,360 Speaker 1: from the actual geography. Over it's a celebration and um 69 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:03,920 Speaker 1: and and a mend meditation upon the American landscape. And 70 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:07,280 Speaker 1: as I call it, it's the there is no geography 71 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:12,120 Speaker 1: in the world in world history better perfectly apportioned for 72 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 1: projecting power around the globe as the American continent, the 73 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 1: temperate zone of the American continent. And that geography is 74 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 1: really the main character of the book. And on that geography, 75 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 1: I'm very optimistic. But things I see here and there 76 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:32,119 Speaker 1: as I write, one place, I passed through towns where 77 00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 1: pennies still mattered, where you didn't leave pennies as extras 78 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 1: in the Little Uh you know, in the Little jar Bob. 79 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:44,159 Speaker 1: How does the how does this view on the geography 80 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:49,280 Speaker 1: play into the mix of people you you met and 81 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:53,360 Speaker 1: conversations you heard throughout your road trip. You talk about 82 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:56,720 Speaker 1: the inequality you saw across the country, and yet at 83 00:05:56,720 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 1: the same time, there's this unique geography that this country 84 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:06,159 Speaker 1: is in that makes it very different from the place 85 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 1: where Europe is in its proximity to the Middle East, 86 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:14,160 Speaker 1: for example, or some of the other geographic features such 87 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:18,359 Speaker 1: as access to water. You know, how long can America 88 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:23,040 Speaker 1: maintain this comparative advantage? Did this road trip help reinforce 89 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:25,559 Speaker 1: that for you or did it make you more worried? Um, 90 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:31,920 Speaker 1: that's a great question. America's comparative advantage has lasted from 91 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 1: its founding literally up until recent times. But remember we've 92 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 1: always been swept up more and more to the world 93 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:44,480 Speaker 1: into the world, first with ocean liners that took five 94 00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:47,480 Speaker 1: days to cross the Atlantic, but at the time we're 95 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 1: a great technological marvel, and now of course with cyber 96 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:56,520 Speaker 1: with jet airplanes. But remember, attrition of the same adds 97 00:06:56,640 --> 00:07:02,480 Speaker 1: up to big change eventually. And now the the interconnectedness 98 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 1: with the rest of the world is at a far 99 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 1: more intense level than ever before. America's comparative advantage was 100 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:14,280 Speaker 1: really built on the fact that we were the only 101 00:07:14,640 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 1: part of the industrialized world which did not have its 102 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 1: infrastructure damage during World War Two. Uh you know, Germany, Germany, Russia, China, Japan, 103 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:31,720 Speaker 1: England were devastated by the war, but we were in 104 00:07:31,840 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 1: splendid isolation. We came out of World War Two literally, 105 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:39,800 Speaker 1: you know, with I think half the world's industrial capacity 106 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 1: or something. And that was that advantage lasted for decades. 107 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 1: It really was Pax American, right, and it's wearing away now, 108 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 1: it's really wearing away. And as we become more and 109 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:57,400 Speaker 1: more immersed into the rest of the world, we find 110 00:07:57,440 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 1: that part of our country, as I said earlier, is 111 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 1: succeeding at it succeeding at globalization, a larger part is not. 112 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:10,679 Speaker 1: And so the more interconnected we become with the world, 113 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 1: the more divisions are exposed at home, divisions that never 114 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 1: previously existed. Because in the past, we had an internal market. 115 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 1: That was another comparative advantage we had. We had an 116 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:28,640 Speaker 1: economy of scale that produced its own goods and services 117 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 1: for its own people. So let's back up a bit 118 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 1: for our listeners. What inspired you to take the trip 119 00:08:34,920 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 1: the way you took it. Were you looking for something 120 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 1: or did you have the germ of this idea and 121 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:42,319 Speaker 1: you thought, well, the only way I can really play 122 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 1: this out is by going coast to CoA. Well, this 123 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 1: book had a very odd origin. I originally wanted to 124 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:53,640 Speaker 1: do a short book about a great American writer historian 125 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:58,839 Speaker 1: who has now been forgotten, Bernard Devoto. And I said 126 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,480 Speaker 1: I should write a book on de Voto, and people said, no, 127 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:04,440 Speaker 1: he's a minor writer. You know, the book's not going 128 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 1: to do well. And I wanted to write also about 129 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 1: my father. Devoto inspired me about the connection of the 130 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 1: American landscape with america projecting power, and my father Expot 131 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 1: inspired me with his trips across the country in the 132 00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:23,360 Speaker 1: nineteen thirties that he used to tell me about. So 133 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:26,480 Speaker 1: I put my father in de Voto together and that 134 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:30,559 Speaker 1: led naturally to a discovery of the American landscape or 135 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:35,479 Speaker 1: road trip, and that led to a meditation upon America's 136 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 1: role in the world, which is what the last chapter 137 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:42,400 Speaker 1: is all about. What our foreign policy should be based 138 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:45,840 Speaker 1: upon what I saw on the road in America. So 139 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:49,439 Speaker 1: was there a point as the journey continued and you 140 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 1: noticed these things were we thought, h Trump may have 141 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:56,760 Speaker 1: a shot, and if not Trump, someone like him is coming. 142 00:09:57,440 --> 00:10:00,360 Speaker 1: Or was it only afterwards you pieced it together, thought 143 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:03,959 Speaker 1: I should have seen it. It was both. Actually, I 144 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 1: saw that there was a big change coming because I 145 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:09,839 Speaker 1: saw that the middle class was not holding and it 146 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 1: was the middle class that essentially acquiesced to our great military, 147 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:18,840 Speaker 1: to our involvements, not just an Iraq and Afghanistan, but 148 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:22,240 Speaker 1: to you know, the great troop deployments in Europe and 149 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 1: Japan during the Cold War. So that if the middle 150 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:30,160 Speaker 1: class is eroding, the support for a three hundred warship 151 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:33,679 Speaker 1: navy could also erode. All the things we take for 152 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:38,120 Speaker 1: granted could erode. And I saw a country that was alienated. 153 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 1: But I did I didn't piece it together with the 154 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 1: person of Trump because he didn't exist in the popular 155 00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 1: mind what I made the journey. But I believe that 156 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:55,320 Speaker 1: that there's no contradiction or very little contradiction between what 157 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 1: I saw and described on the road and his election. Now, 158 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:04,439 Speaker 1: uh Bob, you finished the journey in the southwestern United 159 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 1: States and all the way to San Diego, and one 160 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 1: issue that Trump ran on and probably successfully was talking 161 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 1: about what a bad deal NAFTA was, on how illegal 162 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:21,560 Speaker 1: immigration was pouring across the border from Mexico, whether or 163 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:25,680 Speaker 1: not that was true. Now you do talk about that 164 00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 1: someone in the book. But now uh Trump is is 165 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:33,920 Speaker 1: uh floating or at least as press secretary floated a 166 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:37,360 Speaker 1: tax on imports to pay for a proposed wall with Mexico. 167 00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 1: Can can the dynamism down there be undone? So simply 168 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 1: you know what we're What are some more of your 169 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 1: impressions about the you know, Latino influenced parts of the 170 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 1: West and Southwest that maybe weren't able to get into 171 00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:54,079 Speaker 1: in your book. Yes, well, not so much in this book, 172 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:57,440 Speaker 1: but in previous books of mine, An Empire Wilderness, which 173 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 1: I published in and The Avenge of Geography, which I 174 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 1: published in two thousand and twelve, I dealt at length 175 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 1: with Mexico, and my conclusions then were the same as now, 176 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:13,160 Speaker 1: which is that Latin history is gradually moving north, that 177 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:17,160 Speaker 1: as the Mexican economy grows, as its population grows at 178 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 1: a faster rate than that of the United States, we 179 00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 1: our destiny is tied in with Mexico. We cannot cut 180 00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:29,439 Speaker 1: it off. It's you know, the official frontier is artificial. 181 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 1: It's not based on much of a geographical divide. The 182 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 1: Rio Grande River is very narrow there. People speak Spanish, 183 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 1: you know, it consistently in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona. Uh. 184 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:46,960 Speaker 1: The US dollar is the currency of choice in the 185 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:50,960 Speaker 1: northern third of Mexico. So that a new country is 186 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:54,680 Speaker 1: coming into being called mex America, which is sort of 187 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:59,720 Speaker 1: the northern third of Mexico and say the southern half 188 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 1: of a number of southwestern states. It won't be an 189 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:05,840 Speaker 1: official country, but it will be a country in terms 190 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:10,319 Speaker 1: of mindset, in terms of language, and in terms of economics, 191 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 1: and considering that we should be thinking how to build 192 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 1: up the Mexican economy because of Mexico wins. We win. 193 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:22,560 Speaker 1: How to get Mexico's growth rate up from I don't 194 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 1: know exactly what it is now about two percent or 195 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 1: so up to four percent because that helps us. What 196 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:34,439 Speaker 1: I'm worried about is this is this truculent messaging coming 197 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 1: out of the White House about Mexico is going to 198 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:41,400 Speaker 1: hurt Mexico's prospects in the world economy. It's gonna hurt 199 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 1: Mexico's brand, just as Mexico moves closer and closer away 200 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:51,640 Speaker 1: from third world status and into first world status. But 201 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 1: I mean that's built a lot on intricate global supply chains. 202 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:59,679 Speaker 1: This just in I visited a supermarket in Mexico City 203 00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 1: and August and I'm pretty sure those carrots, which said 204 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:05,960 Speaker 1: product of the USA, had been back and forward across 205 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 1: the boarder multiple times before they ended up in that supermarket. Now, 206 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 1: does that supply chain ultimately defend itself, because it sounds 207 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:18,880 Speaker 1: like you're describing the rise of an economy state, if 208 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 1: not a nation state. That's an interesting question because there 209 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 1: are supply chains like that all over the world. The 210 00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 1: Chinese want to build such a supply chain from China 211 00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:32,320 Speaker 1: to Europe through Central Asia called One Belt, One Road, 212 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 1: And so the question is, does do supply chains do 213 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 1: the Does the self interest inherent in maintaining supply chains 214 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 1: keep the peace? Uh, you know, that's the ultimate question. 215 00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:48,320 Speaker 1: I'm not so sure because I think that there is 216 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:53,640 Speaker 1: a there is a large a large degree of nationalism, 217 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:56,440 Speaker 1: and I'm not talking about the new surge of populism, 218 00:14:56,560 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 1: just you know, the normal national self interest. You know, 219 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 1: that could lead to disruptions and supply chains. But has 220 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 1: the nationalism run behind the economic story. I think for 221 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 1: a long time it did. I think what was happening 222 00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:16,960 Speaker 1: was that global elites, of which the media is a part, 223 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:20,960 Speaker 1: and not just in the United States, the global elite 224 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 1: in Poland and Hungary, in Mexico, we all have more 225 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 1: in common with each other than we have with our 226 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 1: own poorer countrymen. And we assumed that because our lives 227 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 1: were better and better, and we lived in a world 228 00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:40,760 Speaker 1: of high technology people with multiple identities and multiple passports, 229 00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 1: that the rest of the world was following two. And 230 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:47,120 Speaker 1: what I saw in this road trip was that there's 231 00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:49,560 Speaker 1: a large portion of the U S which was being 232 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:54,360 Speaker 1: left behind. And that's also true in Poland, in Hungary, 233 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 1: in other places, which which accounts for the populist upheavals 234 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:03,440 Speaker 1: in those countries. So even though you have these forces 235 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 1: in you, not just the United States, but other countries, 236 00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:09,680 Speaker 1: like you said, around Europe, uh, you know, even across 237 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:15,400 Speaker 1: Asia several countries, is there a reason or is it 238 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 1: possible to say that the geographic nature of the United 239 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:26,280 Speaker 1: States or geographic features would uh lessen the forces of 240 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:31,480 Speaker 1: inequality UH as compared with a place like Poland, which 241 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 1: is hemmed in on multiple sides by economic and potential 242 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 1: security rivals. Our geography work to unite the country. In 243 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 1: the nineteen and part of the twentieth century, our people 244 00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:50,280 Speaker 1: crossed the Appalachians and then found a flat panel of 245 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 1: rich soil the Midwest, where the differences among different immigrant 246 00:16:56,120 --> 00:17:00,240 Speaker 1: groups could be ground down and an American culture could 247 00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 1: be formed. So our geography work towards unity for many 248 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 1: parts of our history. Our river system is not perpendicular 249 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 1: like in Russia, which divides the country even more. It's diagonal, 250 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 1: so that all the waters flow into the Missouri and 251 00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:21,399 Speaker 1: Mississippi river systems, enabling trade and commerce. From the early 252 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:26,119 Speaker 1: nineteenth century onward, it was a geography that worked towards unity. 253 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:30,159 Speaker 1: But now this geography is being undone by the fact 254 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 1: that our people live in a global civilization where some 255 00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:37,360 Speaker 1: do better than others, and certain parts of the country 256 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:41,760 Speaker 1: do better than others. So let's talk about what happened 257 00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:45,880 Speaker 1: when you got to the Pacific. You describe in rather 258 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 1: or inspiring terms the site of the U. S. Pacific 259 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 1: Fleet at San Diego took a little bit about what 260 00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:56,600 Speaker 1: went through your mind and your heart when you saw it. 261 00:17:56,840 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 1: I saw Finally, after weeks upon we of traveling through 262 00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:04,800 Speaker 1: a virtual desert, because remember the Great America, the Great 263 00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:08,359 Speaker 1: Planes are technically a desert. They just happened to be irrigated. 264 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:11,720 Speaker 1: Gets less than twenty inches of rainfall per uh per 265 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 1: year between say the middle of Nebraska and the California coast. 266 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:20,760 Speaker 1: For much of that terrain, you're in what is technically 267 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:24,679 Speaker 1: a desert, desert or a semi desert. And suddenly you 268 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 1: come upon the ocean and Naval Base San Diego, and 269 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:33,119 Speaker 1: you see, lined up as far as the eye could see, 270 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:37,639 Speaker 1: one warship after another, one or two carriers, one or 271 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 1: two submarines, money more destroyers, cruisers, and frigates, and that 272 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:48,120 Speaker 1: each of these platforms cost four billion dollars for each destroyer, 273 00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 1: eighteen billion for an aircraft carrier with all the planes 274 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:56,120 Speaker 1: on it. And you see, you see essentially America's biggest, 275 00:18:56,520 --> 00:19:01,840 Speaker 1: most important strategic instrument, the America Amrican Navy, because it's 276 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:05,760 Speaker 1: more important than our nuclear arsenal, because our nuclear arsenal 277 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:09,440 Speaker 1: is a taboo that can never be used and practically, 278 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:13,160 Speaker 1: but our navy is around the world on any given day, 279 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:16,399 Speaker 1: and occurred to me, we conquered a desert the Great 280 00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 1: Plains in order to become a sea power, because once 281 00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:23,520 Speaker 1: we were on both oceans, then we were a veritable 282 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:29,119 Speaker 1: maritime nation. And that sea power at three hundred warships, 283 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:31,680 Speaker 1: it's actually now like to seventy eight. It's going to 284 00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:34,119 Speaker 1: go up to three thirteen. But think of it in 285 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:38,000 Speaker 1: terms of three hundred warships and a coast guard, which 286 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:40,439 Speaker 1: if it count, which if it was called a navy, 287 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:43,840 Speaker 1: would be the twelfth largest navy in the world. So 288 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:48,119 Speaker 1: you see that conquering the dry land temperate zone of 289 00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 1: North America enabled us to become a world power. And 290 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:56,040 Speaker 1: you see it at a point of concision at Naval 291 00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:59,520 Speaker 1: Base San Diego. Now, how many of the people who 292 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:02,679 Speaker 1: voted for Trump, who said they worried about depletion of 293 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:07,000 Speaker 1: the military have actually seen what you've seen? Very few 294 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:11,760 Speaker 1: of the Pacific. First of all, most people in our country, 295 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:14,680 Speaker 1: even elites, when they think of a military, they think 296 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:17,680 Speaker 1: of the Army of the Marines, because you only see 297 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:21,440 Speaker 1: warships if you live on the coast near a naval base. 298 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:24,920 Speaker 1: Think about it, very few Americans have actually seen a warship. 299 00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:30,320 Speaker 1: But it's our warships combined with our air forces. Uh. 300 00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:33,360 Speaker 1: We we have a system called numbered air forces. So 301 00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,720 Speaker 1: there are many American air forces. It's our navy and 302 00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:42,239 Speaker 1: Air force that essentially project power across the Earth on 303 00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 1: every single day. Our Army and Marines are only there 304 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:52,960 Speaker 1: for unexpected contingencies. But because contingencies cannot be predicted, we 305 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,520 Speaker 1: find that our our land forces are in the news often, 306 00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:59,679 Speaker 1: so they think we're in decline in the military just 307 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 1: because they heard it on say a competitive network. Exactly, 308 00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:10,240 Speaker 1: it looks regardless of Iraq, irregardless of Afghanistan, America has 309 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 1: far and away the greatest military in the world because 310 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 1: of its Navy and Air force and because of the 311 00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 1: experience that our ground fault force has got in Iraq 312 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:26,080 Speaker 1: and Afghanistan that no other military has gotten. Essentially, we 313 00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,119 Speaker 1: have to wrap up. We could talk about this forever 314 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 1: and every even got to read one of my favorite 315 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:33,720 Speaker 1: passages from the book. But okay, it's twenty you're gonna 316 00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:36,119 Speaker 1: do the trip again. If you do, what do you 317 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:39,919 Speaker 1: think you'll find. I think I'll find um a greater 318 00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 1: urban spread. Uh. You know, the suburbs will have expanded 319 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:49,600 Speaker 1: into exerbs. There will be no difference between Lawrence Kansas 320 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:54,439 Speaker 1: uh and uh. In Kansas City, they'll have conglomerated into 321 00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 1: one place. Um, you know, Spokane, Washington will be together 322 00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:02,439 Speaker 1: with Ida. Oh. There'll be more people, more or even 323 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:06,080 Speaker 1: more urban people, and the urban terrain will take up 324 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 1: even greater amounts of space, but they'll still be a 325 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 1: great divide between urban and rural. Does Trump hold those 326 00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 1: supporters in those states? And isn't enough to get him 327 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:21,000 Speaker 1: across the line again? He can hold those supporters if 328 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:26,560 Speaker 1: the economy grows, but it's unclear that pump priming the 329 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:31,199 Speaker 1: economy with lower you know, doing away with regulations, with 330 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 1: lowering taxes, etcetera, can pump prime the economy if the 331 00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 1: stock markets are increasingly upset by political news, like since 332 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:45,560 Speaker 1: he was inaugurated. Benchmark will be back next week and 333 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:48,159 Speaker 1: until then, you can find us on the Bloomberg terminal 334 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:52,200 Speaker 1: and Bloomberg dot com, UH and our newly revamped Bloomberg app, 335 00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:56,400 Speaker 1: as well as on iTunes, pocketcasts, and Stitcher. While you're there, 336 00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 1: take a minute to rate and review the show so 337 00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 1: more listeners can find us and let us know what 338 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,560 Speaker 1: you thought of the show. You can follow me on 339 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:08,879 Speaker 1: Twitter at at Scott Landman and Dan You are at loss. 340 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:13,479 Speaker 1: Underscore Echo Benchmark is produced by Sarah Patterson and the 341 00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:17,600 Speaker 1: head of Bloomberg Podcast is Alec McCabe. Thanks for listening, 342 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:18,440 Speaker 1: See you next time.