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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just mount that action also. All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing spect I'm sitting it to cash touch time.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to wind. That's incredible being bank small banks, I

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Speaker 3: like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you want to

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Speaker 1: fall and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: I am your host, Evan Abrams, and I am joined

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Speaker 3: as always by the one, the only, Brandon Anderson. I

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Speaker 3: mean today, it's simple. We've got Week eighteen right around

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Speaker 3: the corner. All these games on Saturday, and then you've

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Speaker 3: got the Sunday games followed by Minnesota and Detroit on

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Speaker 3: Sunday Night football before we find out the entire playoff

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Speaker 3: bracket and field. But Brandon, what's going on? How are

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Speaker 3: you taking in this entire week? So much to talk about,

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Speaker 3: so many different games and angles. It's a great one.

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Speaker 3: What do you got here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? Week eighteen? Man, it felt like we just started

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Speaker 1: the season not long ago. I remember we had this

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Speaker 1: new podcast. We're like, okay, three best bets. Maybe you'll

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Speaker 1: sneak an escalator in there. Here we are a week eighteen.

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Speaker 1: We got like goofy slate, terrible games for the most part.

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Speaker 1: Don't worry everyone, I got seven best bets. I got

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Speaker 1: escalators and every single one of them. Like, we're digging in.

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Speaker 1: We had a lot of fun this year and hopefully

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Speaker 1: can close out the year on the good now. Plus,

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Speaker 1: of course we got the playoff games to come to.

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Speaker 1: But twenty twenty five rang the new year. Ready for

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Speaker 1: you know, a little wrap up football this week, a

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Speaker 1: little kind of pre postseason, preseason type football. But I

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Speaker 1: think we still have some fun angles here. Ready to

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Speaker 1: watch some games college football on the days in between,

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Speaker 1: just football every day and the holiday season right now.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we're going to hit a point when like the

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Speaker 3: playoffs happen and the balls are done and everyone asks themselves,

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Speaker 3: where's the foot? But right now it is every day

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Speaker 3: and all the time, which is awesome. But this week

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Speaker 3: is really just a hodge todge. I think it's the

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Speaker 3: easiest way to call it. But the equal sign is motivation,

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Speaker 3: and that's what everyone tries to handicap when you go,

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Speaker 3: we gamed a game here. I think we need to

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Speaker 3: start and we're going to go one by one on

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Speaker 3: a few topics before we hit your best sets. But

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Speaker 3: we're gonna start with what is the biggest thing you

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Speaker 3: really learned from Week seventeen. I'll let you start here,

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Speaker 3: but the week that was before you got here, what

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Speaker 3: is the biggest thing you think that mattered?

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Speaker 1: I think jokingly the thing I learned is maybe we

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Speaker 1: don't need football in nine standalone windows from the NFL.

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Speaker 1: For the week, we got a lot of not great

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Speaker 1: Island games, and by the time we got the Sunday,

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Speaker 1: the day with all the football like, it was a

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Speaker 1: rough out here. I know I missed the recap pod,

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Speaker 1: but there was not a lot of recapping the recap

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Speaker 1: on Sunday, so that was one last and otherwise it

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Speaker 1: feels forever going now. But way back on Christmas, I

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Speaker 1: thought the Ravens and the Texans just showed us they're

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Speaker 1: exactly who we thought they've been all season. The Ravens

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Speaker 1: look great, look like LEGISA Bowl contenders with the Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl defense now in particular, in that game held hold

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Speaker 1: at Texans to two points really zero because just the

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Speaker 1: safety the offense gave up. And I thought Houston in

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Speaker 1: that game sort of looked like and played like a

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Speaker 1: team that their season was over, Like oh this is

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Speaker 1: the game we got eliminated from the playoffs. No, No,

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Speaker 1: your division champions, that was your celebration victory lap game.

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Speaker 1: I don't know about them. We've doubted the Texans all year.

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Speaker 1: We've been backing the Ravens. I think that game just

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Speaker 1: showed us exactly what we thought those teams looked like

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Speaker 1: heading into the postseason.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I was gonna say, I think you're pretty much on

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Speaker 3: point there in terms of the teams.

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Speaker 2: That played well.

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Speaker 3: The one thing I was going to say is, like,

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Speaker 3: what I've learned from Week seventeen was kind of Buffalo's

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Speaker 3: defense is still a bit of an issue in something

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Speaker 3: I'm going to keep an eye on. I understood, Yeah, listen,

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Speaker 3: forty to fourteen, we get it. But the second Rogers

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Speaker 3: leaves and I don't really know what we have left

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Speaker 3: of Rogers. Tyrod kind of goes down the field twice,

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Speaker 3: and that's kind of what we've seen of Buffalo's defense.

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Speaker 3: So it'll be interesting to see who they get. But

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Speaker 3: just some quick hitters on Week seventeen, Kyler was Kyler

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Speaker 3: kind of exactly how we felt he would be. Was

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Speaker 3: what he ended up being. Jaden's run ability. Jaden Daniels's

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Speaker 3: runability feels like it's going to be a storyline for

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Speaker 3: whoever Washington gets in the playoffs. His ability to make

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Speaker 3: plays is kind of something we haven't seen in a rookie,

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Speaker 3: and it'll be interesting how he takes that environment. God,

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Speaker 3: this week sucked. Was my next note, which is exactly

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Speaker 3: what you said. It's just the slate was pretty terrible.

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Speaker 3: I kind of thought that I was. I don't think

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Speaker 3: I knew by the end of the week, and now

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Speaker 3: looking at Cleveland and Baltimore this week that Cleveland is

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Speaker 3: four and twelve against the spread. This year, we've been

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Speaker 3: talking so much about the Titans. I don't think I

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Speaker 3: really knew how bad they were. They're on like a

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Speaker 3: four or five game ats losing streak and during this

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Speaker 3: one we'll talk about in a minute. But those are

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Speaker 3: my surprises, or at least things I was thinking about

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Speaker 3: when it comes to week seventeen.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's go to the next.

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Speaker 3: Topic here, which is any future you would add entering

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Speaker 3: this week kind of before all these games in the

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Speaker 3: playoff field is set. What did you have here? I

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Speaker 3: have a quick thought after, but nothing crazy.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it was a couple to reiterate. We talked last

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Speaker 1: week about Bengals Super Bowl ticket. The odds went longer now,

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Speaker 1: even though the Bengals won the game last week. So

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Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty to one. Obviously it's a crazy

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Speaker 1: long shot. They still don't have a defense. But if

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Speaker 1: I get Joe Burrow and those receivers, I think they

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Speaker 1: give me a shot. And if I get in the

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati would play at Buffalo. If they win that, they'd

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Speaker 1: have to go at Kansas City. All right, well they're underdogs,

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Speaker 1: but we all know the Bengals can hang and score

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Speaker 1: points in those games and have a chance, and then

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Speaker 1: you're at the final four teams and then you at

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Speaker 1: least at a hedge opportunity. So I think just a

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Speaker 1: crazy nibble on a long shot. The other one we've

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Speaker 1: talked about two Packers to win the UNCA is eight

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Speaker 1: to one. Now right now, I think we're getting a

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Speaker 1: slight discount on that number. This is a team that

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Speaker 1: lost last week, has not played well against the top

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Speaker 1: NFC teams. But I still think the NFC is where

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Speaker 1: the real sleeper team you want is. And right now

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Speaker 1: it's a discount because the Packers are the seventh seed.

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Speaker 1: Lind up to play the Eagles, and last Washington loses

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Speaker 1: this week, which I think is very much in play

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Speaker 1: and and Green Bay moves up a slot and gets

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Speaker 1: a much better path after that. If that's the case,

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Speaker 1: Because that's a possibility, I think we're getting a little

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Speaker 1: discount on the eight to one number to win the NFC.

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Speaker 1: I do think for NFC teams you want NFC ticket

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Speaker 1: and not Super Bowl because I think the AFC team

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Speaker 1: is going to be favored once we get there. But

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Speaker 1: those would be two for me. What sticks out to you?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I keep staring at Pittsburgh at fifty to one,

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Speaker 3: just knowing what they can do on defense. And the

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Speaker 3: thing that's crazy to me as well is, I mean

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Speaker 3: the stigma on Tomlins.

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Speaker 2: He has been he can't win in the playoffs recently.

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Speaker 3: He's also like a lot of games when you just

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Speaker 3: look at the stats, you know, since they've kind of

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Speaker 3: had their glory days. He gets there, he finishes about

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Speaker 3: five hundred, but they really win the games. But I

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Speaker 3: still think fifty to one it's a little long. And

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Speaker 3: then I just thought this was interesting. Rams Chargers, Commanders,

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Speaker 3: they're all thirty five to one, basically priced the same

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Speaker 3: in the market. So I was trying to decide to myself, like,

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Speaker 3: which of those teams would I be most interested in?

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Speaker 3: Probably in order, it's Commanders, Chargers, Rams potentially just based

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Speaker 3: on who they would have to face. I know the

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Speaker 3: Rams might get the Lions depending on what happens here

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Speaker 3: on Sunday Night football. So just overall some interesting thoughts.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's go to the next topic here, which

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Speaker 3: is Black Monday. It's just a head coaching topic, Like

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Speaker 3: if you had to predict which of these guys you

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Speaker 3: think's gonna get the slip first. I don't think there's

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Speaker 3: a lot to choose from since a few of the

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Speaker 3: top candidates have already been let go, but gied Mayo

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Speaker 3: was one for me. Jeff Ulbrick, I think they're gonna

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Speaker 3: open up that Jets job either way. Antonio Pears, but

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Speaker 3: they've won two in a row, Like I don't necessarily

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Speaker 3: know if Davis is even why the family in general,

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Speaker 3: Like do they care for is Brady even watching? Like

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Speaker 3: I think they're probably moving on. But those are my

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Speaker 3: three candidates. But I think you know the Dennis Allen's

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Speaker 3: already out the door.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Jet Saints and Bears already fired their coach,

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Speaker 1: so that one doesn't really even count those are interims.

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Speaker 1: I do think those three guys are all gone. The

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Speaker 1: interim thing is not getting well for guys that keep

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Speaker 1: that job. See also Antonio Pierce. It's had a few

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Speaker 1: categories here. I think Pierce with the Raiders fits in

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Speaker 1: with McCarthy and the Cowboys and Stefanski and the Browns

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Speaker 1: as shouldn't be safe, but probably are. I don't think

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Speaker 1: those guys are going anywhere. I think the Raiders have

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Speaker 1: a real chance to end the year on a three

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Speaker 1: game winning streak. The Browns are just cheap. Jerry Jones,

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Speaker 1: I don't know what he's doing those jobs. I would

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Speaker 1: love to see something new for those teams. I don't

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Speaker 1: think they will Gerrod Mayo, and I think Brian Callahan

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Speaker 1: and Tennessee. If you ad tune fourteen ats, you're doing

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Speaker 1: something wrong.

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Speaker 2: Maybe first year coaches.

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Speaker 1: I put probably safe, but I wouldn't be shocked to

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Speaker 1: see a team just try something new. Those are pretty

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Speaker 1: stable franchises historically, so they're not necessarily like a team

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Speaker 1: that I would expect to do something crazy. So I've

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Speaker 1: got I'm putting the number at four. Here's the numbers

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Speaker 1: I got for you. I think Brian Dable with the Giants,

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Speaker 1: I think he's done. You start over, you get a

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Speaker 1: top four pick. I think it's just time to get

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Speaker 1: the new coach, new quarterback, kind of start fresh. Jacksonville

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Speaker 1: plays Indianapolis this week. I think they're both done. I

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Speaker 1: think both guys it's time to start fresh. That division

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Speaker 1: was so bad this year and neither one of those

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Speaker 1: teams even got close to contending in a division that

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Speaker 1: was just there for anyone to take. So I think

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Speaker 1: stike In the way the Colts lost down the stretch

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Speaker 1: this season with the Jonathan Taylor fumble and then the

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Speaker 1: game last week against the Giants, I think you just

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Speaker 1: need a fresh start. I like stik In personally, but

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Speaker 1: I think they're gonna have to do something. And Doug

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Speaker 1: Peterson with the funeral escalator like a month or two ago,

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Speaker 1: I don't know how he's still working out here.

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Speaker 2: He's still going around he is.

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Speaker 1: And then here's my surprise pick. And I'm kind of

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Speaker 1: hedging a little bit. I'm telling you that on Monday,

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Speaker 1: either Mike McDaniel or Zach Taylor is getting fired. One

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Speaker 1: of those teams maybe both are missing the playoffs. I

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Speaker 1: think that one or both of those teams are gonna

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Speaker 1: look real hard at we think we're super well contenders,

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Speaker 1: we're not sure we can get there the way things

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Speaker 1: are looking right now, and we can't do a lot

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Speaker 1: of other changes where we make a change. Maybe the

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Speaker 1: head coach, what do you think about Taylor McDaniel.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so I was gonna say Taylor because Taylor is

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Speaker 3: always on my list. McDaniel wasn't one I even really

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Speaker 3: thought of. But I do think that's a good dark horse.

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Speaker 3: The one thing you got wrong on Zach Taylor's They're

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Speaker 3: gonna do it Sunday morning, right like they lose Saturday

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Speaker 3: they lose, they lose Saturday night, Like you're gonna wake

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Speaker 3: up trying to figure out what's going on in the

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Speaker 3: playoff race, and they're gonna be like Zach Taylor got fired.

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Speaker 3: But that is most likely this scenario. I think the

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Speaker 3: Dable one is kind of interesting. I mean that, you know,

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Speaker 3: finishing a little hot, they like him as a head coach.

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Speaker 3: I don't know that one would be interesting going that direction,

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Speaker 3: especially if you keep winning and you end up getting

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Speaker 3: like the seventh or eighth pick. Kind of a crappy

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Speaker 3: situation there, but all right, let's keep going award season. Basically,

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Speaker 3: the question here is can any award be impacted by

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Speaker 3: what will happen in week eighteen? And obviously our opinions

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Speaker 3: you can go first year, and I have a quick.

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Speaker 1: Thought, Yeah, I think there's one. I don't think MVP

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Speaker 1: is gonna be up for grabs. Josh Allen's not expected

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Speaker 1: to play much, and Lamar Jackson's playing a preseason game

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Speaker 1: against the Crown, So I think I think that topic

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Speaker 1: is done. Thank god, I can't handle any more MVP

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Speaker 1: discourse this year. I think DPOI still is up for

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Speaker 1: grabs this weekend. We saw in the middle of this

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Speaker 1: week finally TG a lot, who I think has been

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Speaker 1: the favorite ever since Anon Hutchinson got hurt, finally is

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Speaker 1: no longer the favorite. Patrick's certained past him mid this week,

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Speaker 1: which that should tell us something as better as if

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Speaker 1: in the middle of the week not because of a game,

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Speaker 1: not because of anything that happened, but because of like

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Speaker 1: social media conversations basically suddenly cow out of steam. That

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Speaker 1: should tell you to be careful about like, don't just

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Speaker 1: look at the book in the odds and be like, oh, okay,

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Speaker 1: well certain's gonna win, and like no, it's just like

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Speaker 1: some Twitter people decided to have a conversation and I'll

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Speaker 1: put their money on it and chase the steam that way.

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Speaker 1: Both of those guys are playing in games for basically

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Speaker 1: that last playoff spot in the field. I think TJ. A.

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Speaker 1: Watt could have a big moment against the Bengals knock

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Speaker 1: them out of the playoffs, the hot team no one

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Speaker 1: wants to face, or maybe Denver against Carson Wentz. Maybe

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Speaker 1: Certan has a big game or big moment there. I

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Speaker 1: think one of those two has a big moment, or

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Speaker 1: maybe neither, And I'm not sure. I'd be totally shocked

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Speaker 1: to see neither one of those guys. And some other

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Speaker 1: crazy sort of dark cords at this point emerged that

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Speaker 1: to me is the one award that still seems a

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Speaker 1: little bit up for grabs, all.

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Speaker 3: Right, one by one MVP in my opinion, I think

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Speaker 3: Lamar on Saturday afternoon in front of an audience, puts

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Speaker 3: up a trillion yards and runs around, And I think

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Speaker 3: the angle you're gonna talk about later is Derrick Henry,

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Speaker 3: which the same thing could happen here like, I think

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Speaker 3: the motivation to just being in front of an audience

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Speaker 3: is interesting. I think it's still a race, but I

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Speaker 3: think you're probably right it's over. Saquan's Offensive Player of

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Speaker 3: the Year is a lock. I do think the defensive

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Speaker 3: Player of the Year is an interesting category. I wanted

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Speaker 3: to bring up Kirby Joseph, who obviously two interceptions up

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Speaker 3: to nine this week he's twenty to one, but I

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Speaker 3: just don't necessarily see how that's gonna happen. I want

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Speaker 3: to say Miles Garrett, but they're just not winning any games.

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Speaker 3: So like, even if say they beat the Ravens, right

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Speaker 3: and all this crazy stuff happens on Saturday and he

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Speaker 3: has a bunch of sacks, I don't even know if

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Speaker 3: that's necessarily enough to be a part of the conversation

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Speaker 3: given the year. So I think Watt could do it

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Speaker 3: in front of an audience, but Certin's probably the rightful

291
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Speaker 3: favorite at this point.

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Speaker 2: Versus Rookie of the Year.

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Speaker 3: I think Darnold could win this award Sunday Night comeback

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Speaker 3: player of the Year. I think the one thing that

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Speaker 3: could happen here is even if Burrow plays well and

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Speaker 3: they win and maybe Denver gets into the playoffs, so

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Speaker 3: that storyline gets halted a little bit. Donald did plus

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Speaker 3: one seventy being back in the market after we had

299
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Speaker 3: this whole associated press what is this ward about? And

300
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Speaker 3: then all of a sudden, he's plus one seventy. I

301
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Speaker 3: do think they beat the Lions, and the money line

302
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Speaker 3: price is probably right around the same plus one seventy.

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Speaker 3: Either way, I think Donald probably has a shot and

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Speaker 3: O'Connell's already won that award. You don't have a win

305
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Speaker 3: total of six and a half and finished fourteen and

306
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Speaker 3: two or whatever and not win that. So that is

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Speaker 3: my opinion of the situation. All right, This one's a

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Speaker 3: simple one. What's the one game you don't want to

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Speaker 3: have any action on this weekend?

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Speaker 1: I got four and they're all from two divisions. I'm

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Speaker 1: not bending anything on the NFC West So Seattle, Rams,

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Speaker 1: San Francisco, Arizona, and I got nothing on the AFC

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Speaker 1: South Houston, Tennessee at Jacksonville, India and Minneapolis. The two

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Speaker 1: teams and those bad divisions have already won divisions and

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Speaker 1: look to be resting everyone else. I just I got nothing.

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Speaker 1: I have no props, I have no angles on that

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Speaker 1: don't need to watch those games. I don't need to

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Speaker 1: pay attention to them normally on any game any given

319
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Speaker 1: a week. I literally had an article last year having

320
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Speaker 1: a bet on every team every game. I got nothing

321
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Speaker 1: on these teams. I put like three minutes of prepping

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Speaker 1: doing I was like, Nah, you're out of here. Let's

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Speaker 1: play some real games.

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Speaker 3: I have no interest in Buffalo New England. I just

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Speaker 3: can't even spend my time thinking about one series and

326
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Speaker 3: all that different type of stuff. It just means nothing

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Speaker 3: to me. I can probably find some sort of dumb

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Speaker 3: angle on most of these games. That one I just

329
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Speaker 3: have no interest in because A I don't trust you're

330
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Speaker 3: odd Mayo. I don't even know if may is going

331
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Speaker 3: to play enough for if he should play, and Josh

332
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Speaker 3: Allen's gonna play one series to continue as streak. So

333
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Speaker 3: all right, let's talk Detroit Minnesota quickly, just because just

334
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Speaker 3: so big of a game, the playoff circumstances around it,

335
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Speaker 3: and honestly how rare it is. But I'll let you start, like,

336
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Speaker 3: what's your breakdown here, what's your thought process? You know,

337
00:15:57,840 --> 00:15:58,440
Speaker 3: kind of dive in.

338
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I wanted to put this one in the top

339
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Speaker 1: because I don't have a bet coming up on this one,

340
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Speaker 1: so for me, this is a no bet, but not

341
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Speaker 1: as like those other teams. I'm already betting with my heart.

342
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Speaker 1: I'm a Vikings fan. The whole region out hearing me

343
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Speaker 1: watching the game. This is being billed as the biggest

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Speaker 1: regular season game ever. It might very well be, because

345
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Speaker 1: I honestly think this is a Super Bowl elimination game.

346
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Speaker 1: I don't think that you can count on Jared Goff

347
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Speaker 1: or Sam Darnald to go on the road with no

348
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Speaker 1: rest and go win three road games in all likelihood

349
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Speaker 1: and win the Super Bowl. Is an underdog. I think

350
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Speaker 1: that's just asking way too much for Golf and Donald

351
00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:37,400
Speaker 1: and for what these teams are for the game. The

352
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Speaker 1: profiles of these teams are changing a little bit. The

353
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Speaker 1: Vikings we think of as this really good defensive team

354
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Speaker 1: with just enough offense. The defense is slipped to more

355
00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:48,480
Speaker 1: like seventh to tenth, like bottom of the top ten.

356
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Speaker 1: They're a top passing offense. Now, they've been a top

357
00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:53,880
Speaker 1: five passing offense the entire back half of the season,

358
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Speaker 1: and that I think is the key matchup here, because

359
00:16:57,360 --> 00:16:59,920
Speaker 1: we already know the Lions defense has slipped. We know that,

360
00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:02,560
Speaker 1: but over the last six weeks they are thirtieth by

361
00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:06,159
Speaker 1: dv Away, thirtieth against the past, and that is a

362
00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,800
Speaker 1: bad matchup when you're going up against this red hot

363
00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:14,240
Speaker 1: Sam Darnold, Addison, Jefferson, Hawkinson, the whole crew. So the total,

364
00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:15,879
Speaker 1: I don't know exactly where it's at right now, but

365
00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:17,600
Speaker 1: it looks like it's gonna close as our top of

366
00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:21,440
Speaker 1: the season, like fifty seven ish range. My trends pop

367
00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:23,280
Speaker 1: on the under because the trends are gonna tell you

368
00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:25,040
Speaker 1: to bet under. That's just too high of a number.

369
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Speaker 1: I can't do it. I took a couple of these

370
00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:29,760
Speaker 1: high lines unders then got like eighty points in those games.

371
00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:33,959
Speaker 1: So look back in this matchup. Six straight matchups Lions

372
00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:37,320
Speaker 1: Vikings have gone fifty points or higher. So and we

373
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Speaker 1: got no Lions defense. Right now, you're looking like, can

374
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Speaker 1: we make two stops somewhere in the game to get

375
00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:46,320
Speaker 1: over the line if you need an angle, I think

376
00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:49,280
Speaker 1: aman Ra could have a big game Vikings middle of

377
00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:51,040
Speaker 1: the field is one area that they're a little bit

378
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Speaker 1: vulnerable defensively. Here's his last three games against the Vikings.

379
00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:56,280
Speaker 1: One hundred and six yards, one hundred and forty four,

380
00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:58,159
Speaker 1: one hundred and twelve. I think we just get a

381
00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:01,959
Speaker 1: lot of quick stuff over there. If you want to

382
00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:05,280
Speaker 1: play something on this game, I think the only real

383
00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:07,640
Speaker 1: way to do it is to bet whoever you think

384
00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:11,520
Speaker 1: is gonna win to win the NFC. So if you

385
00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:15,000
Speaker 1: like the Vikings passing offense against the bad passing defense

386
00:18:15,119 --> 00:18:17,480
Speaker 1: four to one right now to win the NFC. If

387
00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:20,360
Speaker 1: you win this game as Minnesota, I know it's crazy,

388
00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:23,920
Speaker 1: you're the one seed. You're off next week. You might

389
00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:26,520
Speaker 1: get to play Washington or Green Bay after that, just

390
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:30,000
Speaker 1: to host the NFC Championship. You gotta like home Brian

391
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:34,040
Speaker 1: Flores defense against either rookie quarterback or against the Packers,

392
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Speaker 1: who they have dominated for the better part of both

393
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,560
Speaker 1: matchups so far this year. So I think if you

394
00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:42,920
Speaker 1: want something on the game, my heart's already on the game,

395
00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:45,800
Speaker 1: But I think betting a future on either the Vikings

396
00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:47,840
Speaker 1: or the Lions that would be the way to go.

397
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Speaker 1: It's an awesome game. It's a great way to end.

398
00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:53,679
Speaker 1: Not a great slate, but we'll be waiting finally, actually

399
00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:55,639
Speaker 1: waiting all day for Sunday night is the real thing

400
00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:56,240
Speaker 1: this week.

401
00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:59,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, this game is gonna be full of touchdown tickets.

402
00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:02,760
Speaker 3: It's like everywhere you go on social media, people are

403
00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:05,080
Speaker 3: going to have two touchdowns and two touchdowns and this

404
00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:07,320
Speaker 3: guy and six players. I mean, this game has a

405
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:09,560
Speaker 3: total of fifty six and a half fifty seven, So

406
00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:12,639
Speaker 3: everyone's just gonna assume two dome deams inside a dome

407
00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:17,640
Speaker 3: under the lights, assuming a track meet here.

408
00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:18,639
Speaker 2: I did look it up.

409
00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:21,280
Speaker 3: You saw the like you said, the best regular season game,

410
00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:24,440
Speaker 3: so I was just curious. We've only had six games

411
00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:27,440
Speaker 3: where an eighty five percent win percentage faced an eighty

412
00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:30,160
Speaker 3: five percent win percentage in game ten or later since

413
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:33,520
Speaker 3: nineteen ninety and it's the first since chiefs Rams in

414
00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:36,520
Speaker 3: twenty eighteen, which was the famous fifty four to fifty

415
00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,520
Speaker 3: one game with like a sixty three total. So I

416
00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:42,720
Speaker 3: think everybody praise that is what we get here.

417
00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:44,480
Speaker 2: Honestly, I only.

418
00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:46,720
Speaker 3: Thought about what was curious about the Super Bowl odds

419
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:48,800
Speaker 3: depending on who wins this game, obviously with the one

420
00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:51,840
Speaker 3: and the five in terms of the seeds, and I

421
00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:54,960
Speaker 3: thought Minnesota is just interesting. There's six eight to one

422
00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:59,520
Speaker 3: while Detroit is second at three seventy. If Minnesota wins

423
00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,240
Speaker 3: the game, I just feel like there's an opportunity, as

424
00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:04,480
Speaker 3: I think you alluded to. I also think there's an

425
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:07,560
Speaker 3: opportunity in Super Bowl matchups, like if you think Minnesota

426
00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:10,600
Speaker 3: wins the game, maybe doing like a Minnesota Baltimore or

427
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:14,280
Speaker 3: whoever you kind of like in the AFC to match

428
00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:16,360
Speaker 3: up with them. I mean, at the minimum, they don't

429
00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:18,240
Speaker 3: have to play a week if they win the game,

430
00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,800
Speaker 3: So those odds should be interesting. Nonetheless, and I believe

431
00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:26,280
Speaker 3: the loser goes to either Tampa Bay, Atlanta or the Rams.

432
00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:29,480
Speaker 3: I think something of that nature. So we will see

433
00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:32,800
Speaker 3: how that goes all. Right now, before we get into

434
00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 3: all these bets, I just wanted to quickly go over

435
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:37,639
Speaker 3: Week eighteen thoughts, Like what you know, this is a

436
00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:40,920
Speaker 3: completely different week than really the other seventeen weeks.

437
00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:43,080
Speaker 2: And I know you have names for different weeks.

438
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:45,359
Speaker 3: You've got like the kitchen sink week, and you've got

439
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 3: all that different type of stuff.

440
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:48,640
Speaker 2: That's kind of what you get here.

441
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:51,159
Speaker 3: So the way I had looked at week eighteen is

442
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,399
Speaker 3: when you can see the finish line, right, Like, I

443
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,919
Speaker 3: think there's a different motivation factor for teams who are

444
00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:01,320
Speaker 3: out of the race, maybe weeks thirteen, fourteen, fifteen, But

445
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:04,359
Speaker 3: once you get to week eighteen, it's like, Okay, maybe

446
00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:06,880
Speaker 3: I can get myself up for one last game before

447
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 3: I have a bunch of months off and I go

448
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:11,159
Speaker 3: to Lank like Kan Kuhn and all this stuff. So

449
00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:14,399
Speaker 3: I do think Week eighteen brings a different motivational factor.

450
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:19,520
Speaker 3: Player rotations also is like a humongous thing in week

451
00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:22,159
Speaker 3: eighteen in my opinion, how many how long people are

452
00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:24,240
Speaker 3: gonna play? When they're gonna play, it's almost like a

453
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:28,919
Speaker 3: preseason game and incentives. Obviously it's a massive conversation. But

454
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:32,200
Speaker 3: I do think sometimes it works both ways a little bit,

455
00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:35,399
Speaker 3: like does the team want it? Does it actually matter?

456
00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:39,000
Speaker 3: Because if the team's trying to win anyway, they're just

457
00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:40,879
Speaker 3: gonna go with their game plan, right Like they're not

458
00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:44,040
Speaker 3: gonna change a game plan if they're trying to win

459
00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:47,120
Speaker 3: a game to get a guy an extra fifteen receiving yards.

460
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 3: So I do think those are my thought processes in

461
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:52,119
Speaker 3: terms of Week eighteen. But what do you think?

462
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you on the player incentive thing. I

463
00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:58,960
Speaker 1: think that has become almost too involgue, like everyone's got

464
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 1: the postop you have it in yours, Like it's good

465
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:05,119
Speaker 1: to know who the players with the incentives are, but like,

466
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:08,080
Speaker 1: let's not be crazy. The books also know who's got

467
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:11,120
Speaker 1: the player incentives, Like they're setting the lines accordingly, they're

468
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,280
Speaker 1: reacting to the bets coming and accordingly. I'm not sure

469
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,880
Speaker 1: that that sort of that market is like I think

470
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 1: it may be tapped out a little bit on most

471
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:20,359
Speaker 1: of those. So I don't do a lot with the

472
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 1: player incentives. I do have one that we'll talk about later,

473
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:24,760
Speaker 1: but I think you have to kind of get creative

474
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:26,679
Speaker 1: with how you want to do that sort of angle.

475
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 1: Maybe the incentive I like is on Week eighteen, So

476
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:33,240
Speaker 1: I would encourage you as you're listening today and playing

477
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 1: these these are aggressive bets. You're gonna hear a lot

478
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 1: of long shots today, you know, we know I love that,

479
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 1: But I think week eighteen, if you're going to bet,

480
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 1: I think you have to bet aggressively because I have

481
00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:47,880
Speaker 1: lines this week by my model that are off by five, six,

482
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,320
Speaker 1: and nine points from what the NFL model is. Like

483
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:52,760
Speaker 1: a lot of betters don't have a line that's off

484
00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 1: by like a half point or a point, and then

485
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:57,199
Speaker 1: that makes them better off by nine is preposterous, Like,

486
00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:59,439
Speaker 1: I clearly must be a way off on this, But

487
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,159
Speaker 1: if I'm right, I must be way right, and I

488
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 1: better bet it really aggressively, not just like play a

489
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 1: spread bet. So I have seven bets today, but my

490
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:10,399
Speaker 1: seven bets are really like twenty bets because there is

491
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:12,719
Speaker 1: a bet and then there's okay. But if it is

492
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 1: this way, then what's the aggressive way? What's the escalator

493
00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:19,159
Speaker 1: way to play it? So with the incentives, you know,

494
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:21,360
Speaker 1: we've like there's a very obvious one that I'll come

495
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:25,880
Speaker 1: back to. The Steelers play Sunday or Saturday. The Raiders

496
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 1: and Chargers play on Sunday. If the Steelers win, the

497
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 1: Chargers are locked into the sixth seed, and that game

498
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 1: becomes meaningless for them a day later, maybe they're resting

499
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 1: that odds on that game are going to change if

500
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:40,719
Speaker 1: the Steelers win, and so you can parlay those together.

501
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 1: You can sort of choose your own adventure on team incentives.

502
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:47,639
Speaker 1: I think the team incentive more the player incentive is

503
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,119
Speaker 1: the way to go here and say, Okay, what do

504
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,120
Speaker 1: I think a team's going to do here? And if

505
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:55,160
Speaker 1: they do, what happens in the other game, and sometimes

506
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 1: what happens in those games simultaneous. Tampa and Atlanta Atlanta

507
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 1: need to win and they need a Bucks lost. Well,

508
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 1: what if it's halftime and the Bucks are up twenty

509
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 1: one to three. You don't think the Falcons have the

510
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 1: Internet in the locker room and know what's happening there.

511
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:12,480
Speaker 1: Like games simultaneous, you can sort of choose a path

512
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 1: script an outcome of Okay, if this game is happening

513
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 1: over here, what's this team know about it? And what

514
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,680
Speaker 1: would they do about it? So I think you're gonna

515
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,120
Speaker 1: have a little fun. Maybe down the bet a little

516
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:25,840
Speaker 1: bit to more pizza money sized bets this weekend, but

517
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:29,119
Speaker 1: have some fun and go for the long shots. Less bets,

518
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 1: more crazy ones is my way to going Week eighteen.

519
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 1: I like it though. I'm excited for this podcast. I

520
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:34,480
Speaker 1: got some fun ones today.

521
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:35,200
Speaker 2: Yeah.

522
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 3: Week eighteen's the best and nobody knows a long shot

523
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 3: like you do, so it should be a good time

524
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,359
Speaker 3: all right. Before we get into all these bets, wild

525
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:44,640
Speaker 3: card lines are out at a bunch of books right now,

526
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:48,439
Speaker 3: which is basically hypothetical lines. If this team plays this team,

527
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,159
Speaker 3: you are happy to bet this. They have a spread,

528
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 3: they have a total, So I.

529
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:54,479
Speaker 2: Kind of toss this to you.

530
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:58,359
Speaker 3: What are you seeing of these potential matchups where the

531
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,679
Speaker 3: line might be you know, a point, a point that

532
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:03,159
Speaker 3: way on the total that you think there might be

533
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 3: an advantage.

534
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 1: Yeah to the COMI Buffalo minus seven and a half

535
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 1: home against Denver. I do not believe in this Denver team.

536
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:12,440
Speaker 1: So if we do get that one Bononicks on the

537
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,880
Speaker 1: road and like snowy Buffalo for a home playoff debut

538
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 1: on the road for the rookie, just that to me

539
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 1: screams a line that would rise at least to nine

540
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 1: and a half because that would get teased into oblivion

541
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:26,480
Speaker 1: at seven and a half, and I don't think books

542
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 1: want to deal with that. So I would love the

543
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 1: Bills there. And then if we get it Pittsburgh Baltimore.

544
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 1: Right now we're getting a total at forty seven and

545
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,199
Speaker 1: a half. That's an under all day for me. I

546
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:38,879
Speaker 1: know we just got fifty one in the match a

547
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 1: couple weeks ago, but historically that is way too high.

548
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 1: Forty seven is a key number. I think that would

549
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 1: go that direction. And right now it's Pittsburgh plus seven

550
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:52,040
Speaker 1: and a half. I don't know, man, All the history

551
00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:54,920
Speaker 1: says to take the underdog in that matchup over at Field.

552
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,119
Speaker 1: Will we know all the trends that way, we know

553
00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 1: about the raw ra stuff and in this particular matchup,

554
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,199
Speaker 1: So those are the ones that caught my eye. What

555
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:04,919
Speaker 1: I really want that I haven't seen anywhere is I

556
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:08,399
Speaker 1: want Packers, not at Eagles. I don't know about that

557
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 1: one yet. I want Packers. If they move up to

558
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,360
Speaker 1: the sixth seed, give me them out whatever line they're

559
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:15,480
Speaker 1: gonna post against the Rams or the Bucks. I think

560
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 1: the Packers are as good as anyone in the NFC,

561
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:19,880
Speaker 1: and if they move up, that will be the underdog

562
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 1: that I think has a great chance to win and

563
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 1: keep winning next week.

564
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:27,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I circle the Packers Eagles, saying to myself, Okay,

565
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:29,600
Speaker 3: I kind of like the three, but I did put

566
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 3: a question mark there, being like Packers Bucks is really

567
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:34,920
Speaker 3: what I'd be interested in, which is also why I

568
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 3: think Washington plus two and a half in Tampa Bay,

569
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 3: which is currently listed, is interesting. Man, I would really

570
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 3: love the three, but I still think it's kind of

571
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,639
Speaker 3: free points because it's probably a pick'm game to me,

572
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 3: Washington in Tampa Bay, even with the rookie. But yeah,

573
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:52,479
Speaker 3: Green Bay Tampa Bay would be the dream. All right,

574
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 3: let's get into these bets.

575
00:26:56,440 --> 00:27:01,680
Speaker 4: This is your best bet.

576
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 2: So we're gonna start with Carolina and Atlanta. You said it.

577
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:09,200
Speaker 3: This is Atlanta's entire season. They play at the exact

578
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:12,119
Speaker 3: same time as Tampa Bay New Orleans. Tampa Bay wins,

579
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:14,440
Speaker 3: they're in. It's not Atlanta has a shot.

580
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:14,720
Speaker 2: Here.

581
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:16,719
Speaker 3: The stat I have before I toss it to you.

582
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 3: Bryce Young's turnover turnover worthy throw percentage, to me is

583
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 3: probably the story of the season. It's at two percent

584
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:26,400
Speaker 3: since week nine. It was at four point nine percent

585
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:29,439
Speaker 3: prior to week nine. So he's just really improved as

586
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 3: a quarterback not giving them ball to the other team.

587
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 1: So what do you like here in this matchup Panthers Island. Baby,

588
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 1: we're finishing the season right where we started back on

589
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:41,159
Speaker 1: Carolina plus eight and a half, and on each one

590
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 1: of these picks, we'll get to the escalator. We're back

591
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 1: one more time, Panthers Island. Actually, genuinely, I think this

592
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 1: might be one of my favorite bets of the entire season.

593
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,440
Speaker 1: These teams are just not that far apart. I make

594
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,879
Speaker 1: this Atlanta minus three and a half, so this is

595
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 1: a huge difference across the major key number. Obviously, I

596
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,160
Speaker 1: just think we're viewing Atlanta all here and viewing Carolina

597
00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 1: a little bit wrong. Still too so Atlanta before the

598
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 1: change from Kirk Cousins, they ranked thirty first in DVA

599
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 1: the last six games before that, and I don't think

600
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:12,919
Speaker 1: a lot has changed since then. Here's what has changed.

601
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 1: The passing offense has not. The passing offense with Michael

602
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 1: Pennock still ranks twenty six the last two games by DVA.

603
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 1: What has changed is the passing defense is top five.

604
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 1: Is Atlanta really a top five passing defense these last

605
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 1: couple of weeks or this last month or so their

606
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:31,880
Speaker 1: top ten defense overall? I don't know. I don't see that.

607
00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 1: Why would they be a top ten, top five defense suddenly?

608
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:36,880
Speaker 1: I know they're getting a little more pressure. I don't

609
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,960
Speaker 1: think that that's totally nothing, But look at just the

610
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 1: team they're playing here, Carolina. Last week I gave out

611
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 1: Carolina talking about that their top five pass defense over

612
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 1: the last six weeks, and then their pass defense gave

613
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 1: up a million yards to Tampa Bay. Because defense is

614
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 1: fluky and kind of goes hot and cold, and I

615
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,640
Speaker 1: think that shows you just how vulnerable and fluky some

616
00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 1: of those stats can be, and how much I Thinkana's

617
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 1: passing defense can be in this matchup, who's the better

618
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 1: quarterback right now? Because I'm pretty sure it's Bryce Young,

619
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 1: not Michael Pennix. We've seen two games from Penix. Young's

620
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 1: playing well. I take Dave Canalis and the Carolina coaching

621
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 1: staff over Atlanta's right now. So what's the advantage for

622
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 1: Atlanta this game? Certainly the run game, and maybe they

623
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 1: just run all over them and maybe that's enough. Is

624
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 1: the defense really that much better? Carolina's defense has not

625
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 1: been good. I don't know that trust Atlanta's defense. And

626
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 1: by the way, importantly, Atlanta's defense just played Sunday night,

627
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 1: could not get off the field against Washington. They were

628
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 1: in the field seventy seven plays forty two minutes. That

629
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 1: defense is exhausted, and I think that that sets up

630
00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 1: very poorly for them. Here here's some of the trends.

631
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 1: Teams have won forty to sixty percent like Atlanta against

632
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:53,160
Speaker 1: the team eight to twenty five percent worse thirty one

633
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 1: seventy ats thirty nine percent. Stuckey's trend that he talks

634
00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 1: about a must win team versus eliminated team the last

635
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:02,480
Speaker 1: two we the year forty percent that hits here for

636
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 1: Atlanta as well or against Atlanta either way, road team

637
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:09,720
Speaker 1: failing to cover by twenty four of the week before

638
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:13,440
Speaker 1: sixty five percent ATS that's in Carolina's favor. A couple

639
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 1: others just as like coming off a huge blowout as underdogs,

640
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 1: more trends in their favor. So I love this, but

641
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 1: I think this line is way off. Panthers island back

642
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 1: one more time, Carolina plus eight and a half.

643
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 2: God bless us.

644
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 3: Hopefully Carolina can give us one more ATS win this

645
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 3: year right at the end of the year, to kind

646
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 3: of send Atlanta off into their offseason. All right, let's

647
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 3: keep going here.

648
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:40,480
Speaker 1: So this one's quick and easy. Just set us up here.

649
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 1: So Panthers plus eight and a half Panthers money line.

650
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 1: I think Panthers win this game outright. It's plus three

651
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 1: point fifty. These teams split the season series each last

652
00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 1: four years, Atlanta one in October, so that means Carolina

653
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 1: has to win now. And there's one other angle that

654
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 1: will add even a slight and more escalator. I mentioned

655
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 1: it a little bit already. What if Atlanta looks up

656
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 1: at halftime and the Bucks are rolling Tampa Bay winning

657
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 1: big against the Saints. They're two touchdown favorites. If the

658
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 1: Bucks aren't winning big, it doesn't matter what the Falcons

659
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:11,040
Speaker 1: do anymore. And if they're in a tight game, are

660
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:13,239
Speaker 1: they really gonna have the extra motivation or are they

661
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 1: just gonna be like, you know what season's done anyway?

662
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 1: Is what are we doing out here? So if you

663
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 1: think the Bucks win big, especially pulling ahead in the

664
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 1: second half, as they probably will do against the Saints,

665
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 1: who have been terrible second half, box minus thirteen with

666
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 1: the Carolina money line plus seven to fifty nine, that's

667
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 1: the escalator on motivation here. If the Falcons look up

668
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 1: at the scoreboard and there's Tampa Bay rolling away, does

669
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 1: Carolina just get this over the line too, So basically

670
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 1: plus seven to fifty love that one.

671
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's some fun stuff to probably do with like

672
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 3: Mike Evans and Tampa Bay scoring a ton of points

673
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:50,280
Speaker 3: on that side of the ball, mixed with that Carolina stuff.

674
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 3: As you said, I think there's some fun things back

675
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 3: and forth there. All right, Well, that's Panther's Falcons. So

676
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 3: let's move on here now to the next one. We're

677
00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:01,280
Speaker 3: gonna do Chiefs and Broncos. Now we got a rookie

678
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 3: lay in ten and a half and eleven points here.

679
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 3: Just a crazy situation obviously, with no Mahomes, no Kelsey,

680
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,400
Speaker 3: Casey resting all their starters. The one note I will say,

681
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 3: Andy Reid is a dog of four and a half

682
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 3: for more twenty and eleven against the spread since two

683
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 3: thousand and three Casey and Philly, But honestly, more impressively

684
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 3: to me, he's twenty seven and four in a six

685
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 3: point tis in that slot, which means not getting blown out,

686
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 3: which is exactly what you would want in a ten

687
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 3: and a half point dog.

688
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 2: So what are you doing here, Casey? Denver?

689
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think the Chiefs get blown out. In fact,

690
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:35,560
Speaker 1: I think they're in this all the way and have

691
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 1: a real chance to win. So give me Chiefs plus

692
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 1: ten and a half in Denver. And look, I know

693
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:43,200
Speaker 1: books are pricing in motivation. I know Denver has to

694
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 1: win this game, but this line move is ridiculous. I

695
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 1: would have this Chiefs minus six if they were healthy

696
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 1: and motivated, and they're not. But that's like a sixteen

697
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 1: point seventeen point line move. Even with the guys out,

698
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 1: I would still make this maybe like Denver minus three

699
00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 1: or four range. This is way too many points here

700
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 1: for a team that I think is moving backwards a

701
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 1: little bit, and the Chiefs have more than just Patrick Mahomes. Now,

702
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:08,680
Speaker 1: look Patrick Maholmes. I think when we look back five

703
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 1: ten years from now, is going to be absurd that

704
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 1: the Chiefs are fifteen and a one, back to back

705
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 1: defending champions and patri Maholmes is probably not gonna be

706
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 1: a top five MP candidate in his prime. I don't

707
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 1: know what we have to do to fix that. But

708
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 1: it's not just Mahomes out. We're gonna lose Travis Kelcey.

709
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 1: Chris Jones is out. But here's the thing. NFL rosters

710
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 1: only go fifty three deep. There's only so many guys

711
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 1: that you can bench, and the Chiefs are not as

712
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 1: top heavy as we think of them. And beyond Mahomes Kelsey,

713
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 1: we already knew Chris Jones will be sitting anyways with

714
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 1: his injury. Maybe Trent McDuffie. There's not a lot of huge,

715
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 1: needle moving guys that will be missing from this team.

716
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 1: The offensive line strength still there, There's only so many linemen.

717
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 1: You got to play some of those good linemen for

718
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. The defense that's come back around. The Chiefs

719
00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 1: in the last four weeks are suddenly top five offense

720
00:33:57,520 --> 00:34:00,800
Speaker 1: and defense by DVOA again top five pass defense. Also,

721
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 1: these guys have to play. They can only bench so

722
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 1: many players. And by the way, I know it's the backups,

723
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:09,799
Speaker 1: but you don't think that the Chiefs, who have won

724
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:12,360
Speaker 1: seventeen out of eighteen games. You don't think the team

725
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:14,200
Speaker 1: that is the back to back champs wants to go

726
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 1: sixteen to one and knock out the division arrival out

727
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:19,360
Speaker 1: of the playoffs. They will be trying in this game.

728
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,440
Speaker 1: And I got my Carson Wentz jersey on here. I

729
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 1: am in North Dakota, Like I'm not backing Carson Wentz

730
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,839
Speaker 1: in his one start for the year. I know all

731
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 1: the Carson Wentz jokes. He's a top five backup. They

732
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 1: go and get him for this moment to play when

733
00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:38,320
Speaker 1: Mahomes is down. And don't forget it's not just Carson Wentz.

734
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:41,480
Speaker 1: It's Carson Wentz and Andy Reid and every quarterback for

735
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 1: decades has been better with Andy Reid. Denver, their defense

736
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 1: is their calling card, but their defense is down to

737
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 1: thirteenth over the last six weeks, basically league average against

738
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:54,000
Speaker 1: the run. And the pass. Alan is a great team

739
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 1: right now, and they're a tired defense. Like we just

740
00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:59,200
Speaker 1: said with Atlanta, they played the Bengals. Now, it was

741
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:01,880
Speaker 1: on Saturday, but this defense was on the field for

742
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:04,720
Speaker 1: eighty four plays against the Bengals. They gave up almost

743
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 1: five hundred yards forty two minutes on the field. Defense

744
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:10,960
Speaker 1: has been a worse at home. They've been worse early.

745
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 1: The Chiefs defense has been better on the road. I

746
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 1: think this sets up for one of those games where

747
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 1: it's like, oh man, it's like thirteen to ten in

748
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter. Can the Broncos hold on and finish

749
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:24,320
Speaker 1: this thing off? That's where we're headed. You had the

750
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:27,279
Speaker 1: Andy Reid underdog stats when he's a underdog and more

751
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:29,759
Speaker 1: than a touchdown eight and three against the spread if

752
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:31,919
Speaker 1: you just bet any underdog game on the money line,

753
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 1: Andy Reid twenty six percent ROI on the money line,

754
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:38,720
Speaker 1: only behind Mike Tomlin for active coaches. So raw raw Tomlin.

755
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 1: We know we love that. We don't get raw raw

756
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 1: Reid because he's the favorite every time, but I think

757
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 1: this is a great spot to back him. The Chiefs

758
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:49,399
Speaker 1: have owned the Broncos seventeen of eighteen and one last thing.

759
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 1: There's a small chance Denver might not even have to

760
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:55,839
Speaker 1: win this game. If the Bengals lose Saturday, and if

761
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:59,440
Speaker 1: Tyler Huntley and the Dolphins are just looking tearrible, Denver

762
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:01,400
Speaker 1: is already in the playoffs at that point. They may

763
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 1: not even have to get over the line at the

764
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:05,799
Speaker 1: end of this game, even though these are simultaneous. So

765
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 1: Chiefs plus ten and a half, well, I think is

766
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 1: just a terrible line. That's the play Carson the Winz

767
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:13,719
Speaker 1: baby North Dakota, let's go.

768
00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:17,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, maybe the Pittsburgh what would be? It would be

769
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:22,439
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh Jets Chiefs parlay on the money line where all

770
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:25,359
Speaker 3: three of them just fall in their faces. I might

771
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 3: have to put a few bucks on that one. All right,

772
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:29,239
Speaker 3: is it you have an escalator here? Or are we

773
00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 3: moving all game?

774
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 1: So it's kind of a yeah, multiple escalator of course.

775
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 1: So Chiefs on the money line plus four fifty, that's

776
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 1: the obvious pick here. I do think that the Chiefs

777
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:44,359
Speaker 1: can and maybe will win outright and not really correlated,

778
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 1: but Chiefs Panthers moneyline parlay plus twenty two twenty two,

779
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 1: So put that one in there, just a little nibble.

780
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:54,160
Speaker 1: But then here's the kind of fun narrative escalator. You're

781
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:56,920
Speaker 1: just building one. What if all three need to win,

782
00:36:57,040 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 1: teams fall in their face. Here's my version of that

783
00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 1: little nibble. What if the Bengals look awesome. The Bengals

784
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 1: go out and win on Saturday, they cover the minus

785
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:09,480
Speaker 1: two whatever the number is. The Jets win, the Dolphins

786
00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:11,360
Speaker 1: get them out of here. Who cares about them, Tyler

787
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:14,319
Speaker 1: Huntley don't need to worry about that. The Bengals the

788
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:17,400
Speaker 1: team nobody wants to face. Oh no, the poor Bills,

789
00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:19,360
Speaker 1: and maybe the Chiefs will have to face the Bengals.

790
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 1: The Broncos are struggling, the Chiefs are hanging around, everyone's

791
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 1: excited for Joe Burrow in the playoffs. And then the

792
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 1: Bengals get over the line, or sorry that then the

793
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 1: Broncos get over the line right at the end. So

794
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:36,320
Speaker 1: here's the parlay. Bengals to cover, Jets to win, Chiefs

795
00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:40,400
Speaker 1: plus seven and a half Denver money line. So the

796
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 1: Bengals win, They're set up as the team nobody wants

797
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 1: to face. They we're excited about the playoffs, and then

798
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 1: it gets ruined and the Broncos just like squeeze out

799
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 1: a win. Against the backups from the Chiefs, and everyone's

800
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 1: disappointed and sad except us because we hit a thirteen

801
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:56,280
Speaker 1: to one parlay. A little narrative escalator on that one.

802
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:58,600
Speaker 1: So if you're looking to tail this pick, look for

803
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 1: the quick slip button in the Action Network app.

804
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 2: I love those.

805
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 3: I'm gonna have so many of these little strung together

806
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:06,359
Speaker 3: by the time we hit the weekend for like eight,

807
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 3: you know, eight ten bucks a piece. It'll be fantastic.

808
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:14,759
Speaker 3: All right, next game here, Steelers Bengals. Before I give

809
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:16,919
Speaker 3: my stat because I just have more of a way

810
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:20,400
Speaker 3: to kind of play your bets here and kind of

811
00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 3: add a few things to it to make it a

812
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:24,839
Speaker 3: little longer. But why don't you walk us into this?

813
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 3: What do you like here?

814
00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:27,200
Speaker 2: Cincinnati Pittsburgh.

815
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I just gave you the narrative escalator parlay

816
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,239
Speaker 1: on the Bengals. But the truth is, I'm only just

817
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 1: gonna nimble down a little bit because I'm actually on

818
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:36,759
Speaker 1: the other side of this game. Give me the Steelers

819
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 1: on Saturday plus two and a half at one book

820
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:41,320
Speaker 1: plus two if you need to plus one and a half,

821
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:44,319
Speaker 1: I would rather take that than the money line. We've

822
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:46,440
Speaker 1: seen the Bengals go for two. We've seen them win

823
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:48,719
Speaker 1: or lose by one a couple of times, so that

824
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:51,400
Speaker 1: one or two points may actually matter. But this is

825
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:54,880
Speaker 1: just a classic Raw ra Tomlin spot. Even if the

826
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 1: Ravens win, Pittsburgh should still be trying this game. They

827
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:01,719
Speaker 1: want to secure the ive seed and play the Texans,

828
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:06,440
Speaker 1: not the Ravens, and knock out the Bengals, your division rival.

829
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 1: That's another thing to do. And they've been terrible for

830
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:12,360
Speaker 1: the last three weeks. They've just been home since Christmas,

831
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:14,920
Speaker 1: where they looked awful after looked awful the week before.

832
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:17,080
Speaker 1: They don't want to be limping in the playoffs on

833
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 1: a four game losing streak. I think Pittsburgh tries. I

834
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 1: think they treat this game as business as usual, and

835
00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:25,560
Speaker 1: I think that Pittsburgh should be favored. I would have

836
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:28,759
Speaker 1: this at minus four. Pittsburgh we're getting almost all the

837
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 1: way to. I don't think we're gonna get to plus

838
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:33,160
Speaker 1: three on the other side, but we're getting close to

839
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:35,839
Speaker 1: that now. I just see no way Cincinnati should be fair,

840
00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 1: and I know that's how books have tweated these teams

841
00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:40,759
Speaker 1: all season, but I don't see it. Pittsburgh. I know

842
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 1: has not looked good the last couple of games, but

843
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 1: that was Baltimore and Kansas City. The Bengals are not

844
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 1: those teams. Particularly, their defense is very beautible. The Steelers

845
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:53,279
Speaker 1: are an extra rest. They're at home. The Bengals just

846
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:55,879
Speaker 1: mentioned coming out that long overtime game that they had.

847
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh has a special teams advantage. They have a big

848
00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:02,359
Speaker 1: coaching advantage. They're obviously better on defense. I know they

849
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:05,239
Speaker 1: have their flaws right now, but they're clearly better than Cincinnati.

850
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 1: And then all the Tomlin stats, let me just run

851
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 1: off a few of them for you here Tomlin week

852
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 1: five forod as an underdog sixty eight percent ATS and

853
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 1: in my Tomlin Underdog Rob Ross spot, I have noted

854
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:19,400
Speaker 1: that trend is better in the division. It's better in

855
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 1: a home game. It's better as a touchdown underdog or last,

856
00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 1: it's better off a seven point loss or more. This

857
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:27,120
Speaker 1: game checks all for those boxes.

858
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:27,839
Speaker 2: This is a.

859
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 1: Prime Tomlin raw Ross spot. It's a great spot to

860
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:34,319
Speaker 1: back AFC North underdog sixty percent against this thread week

861
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:36,880
Speaker 1: fourteen forward. It's a great spot to just back a

862
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 1: team on a three game losing streak ATS and straight

863
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:42,960
Speaker 1: up fifty nine percent ATS. And then Mike Tomlin just

864
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:45,960
Speaker 1: against the Bengals, They've won fifteen of nineteen games. This

865
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:48,839
Speaker 1: is a team that he has dominated this franchise over

866
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:51,400
Speaker 1: the years. And then this may be one of your stats.

867
00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 1: I got it out of your column. Mike Tomlin. Week

868
00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:57,840
Speaker 1: seventeen and eighteen fourteen and seven ATS sixty seven percent

869
00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:01,720
Speaker 1: against this thread three to zero ATS in Week eighteen.

870
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:06,160
Speaker 1: These teams close strong under Mike Tomlin. Steelers plus two

871
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 1: and a half get the best number. Again, I'd rather

872
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:11,120
Speaker 1: play that than the money line, But I think Pittsburgh

873
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:12,920
Speaker 1: isn't a great spot to hang around here and make

874
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:14,280
Speaker 1: things interesting on Saturday.

875
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:17,080
Speaker 3: I mean, it feels like every Bengals game does have

876
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:19,960
Speaker 3: the ability to go over. And if I look at it,

877
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:24,160
Speaker 3: here's some numbers. Forty four, thirty seven, twenty forty one,

878
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:28,399
Speaker 3: twenty four. Those are Burrows points versus Tomlin since twenty

879
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 3: twenty one. Now, necessarily, I don't know if the Bengals

880
00:41:31,560 --> 00:41:33,440
Speaker 3: are going to win the game, but I do think

881
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:34,920
Speaker 3: they're going to be able to put up some points.

882
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:38,400
Speaker 3: So Cincinnati team total over twenty four and a half

883
00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 3: and Pittsburgh to win is about seven to one. Which

884
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:45,720
Speaker 3: is interesting considering the money line is short. So just

885
00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:48,279
Speaker 3: an idea. You know, Cincinnati puts up a ton of

886
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:51,959
Speaker 3: points there, and if you like, Pittsburgh feels a little long.

887
00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:54,120
Speaker 3: All right, is there any escalator here or do you

888
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 3: want to move on to the next.

889
00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 1: I got an escalator. I know everything, Evan, So here's

890
00:41:57,160 --> 00:41:59,280
Speaker 1: my version of escalator. And this might be my favorite

891
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:02,319
Speaker 1: version of these escalators. Part of the reason I'm not

892
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:04,520
Speaker 1: playing the Steelers' money line is because if you do

893
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:07,359
Speaker 1: think Steelers win, there's a better angle. And I've seen

894
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 1: it out there. I know Anthony Dubunda or old colleague

895
00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 1: had this play. I think the guys on six pack

896
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 1: ended up doing this play as well. If the Steelers win,

897
00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:18,719
Speaker 1: we mentioned already they're the five seed, the Chargers locking

898
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:20,879
Speaker 1: into the sixth seed and a day later have nothing

899
00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:24,120
Speaker 1: to play for against the Raiders. Justin Herbert's been banged

900
00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 1: up all season. I don't know what Jim harbod nows necessarily,

901
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:30,279
Speaker 1: but as a five point favorite on the road for LA,

902
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 1: there's no way that line stays that high. So I

903
00:42:32,520 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 1: want to Pittsburgh Raiders money line parlay. Frankly, I think

904
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:39,280
Speaker 1: that that's a bad line in favor of the Raiders anyway,

905
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:42,759
Speaker 1: five point home dogs. But the Raiders defense has been

906
00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:45,640
Speaker 1: really good the last six weeks. They've been the better

907
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 1: defense than the Chargers in my opinion. Patrick Ram's defense

908
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:51,080
Speaker 1: has been really good. They're top three against the past,

909
00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:54,880
Speaker 1: top six overall by DVOA. Chargers defense has been fading away.

910
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:57,319
Speaker 1: They were really good the first half the season, not

911
00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:00,719
Speaker 1: so good lately. A couple weeks ago, the Raiders were

912
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:02,920
Speaker 1: the Giants. Those were the two teams they're supposed to

913
00:43:02,960 --> 00:43:05,040
Speaker 1: be the number one pick. They've won two in a row.

914
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:08,520
Speaker 1: Antonio Pierce and o'conno. Those guys are playing and coaching

915
00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:11,480
Speaker 1: for their future right now. So I think, if you

916
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:14,560
Speaker 1: want just the Raiders angle, I take the under in

917
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:17,400
Speaker 1: that game. Raiders games have gone under forty one and

918
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:19,839
Speaker 1: five straight. It's forty one and a half. So I think,

919
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:21,759
Speaker 1: if you just want a Raiders angle, but you're not

920
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:24,880
Speaker 1: so sold on it, just ugly game, peek of close whatever.

921
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:27,600
Speaker 1: But here's how you know the Steelers Raiders money line

922
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:30,880
Speaker 1: parlay is good. You got to shop round because there

923
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:33,600
Speaker 1: are multiple major books that will not let you parlay

924
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:35,720
Speaker 1: this bet. If you try to put those two together.

925
00:43:36,239 --> 00:43:38,880
Speaker 1: They know that it's correlated and they will not accept

926
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:40,920
Speaker 1: this bet right now. But if there are books that

927
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 1: do accept it, it's five to one right now, shop Brownie,

928
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:47,880
Speaker 1: get it. Chargers Raiders have split the season series five straight.

929
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:50,319
Speaker 1: Chargers won the first time. That sets up all for

930
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:53,520
Speaker 1: the Raiders. Get that parlay. It's way too good of

931
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:55,880
Speaker 1: a price if the Steelers will win what could be

932
00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:58,200
Speaker 1: kind of a coin flippy game. You got a five

933
00:43:58,239 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 1: to one on the Raiders, in effect a meaningless game

934
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 1: for both teams. So I love that one. It might

935
00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:05,120
Speaker 1: be my favorite escalator of this group.

936
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:06,759
Speaker 2: That is an interesting one.

937
00:44:06,840 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 3: I mean, just considering the circumstances about what you could

938
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 3: possibly get on Sunday with the Raiders and Chargers on

939
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:15,320
Speaker 3: the other side of it, I could just see Harbaugh

940
00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:17,360
Speaker 3: has said. I think he has really one of the

941
00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:19,400
Speaker 3: best quotes here. I don't have it here, but I

942
00:44:19,440 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 3: think it's something about, like, you know, we're gonna have

943
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:24,440
Speaker 3: the most motivated team in the entire world when it

944
00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:27,439
Speaker 3: comes to Sunday. Yeah, that's that's until it doesn't matter.

945
00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 3: So we'll see how that circumstances works. All right, last

946
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:34,320
Speaker 3: game here before we talk about incentives. You've got something

947
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:38,359
Speaker 3: on Dallas and Washington. Now, this one kind of goes

948
00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:41,759
Speaker 3: both ways, right, like Washington needs the game, but there's

949
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:44,719
Speaker 3: certain circumstances that could be happening during the game that

950
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 3: would make it go one way.

951
00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:47,480
Speaker 2: Or the other. So what's your play here?

952
00:44:48,040 --> 00:44:50,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is low key the second most

953
00:44:50,200 --> 00:44:52,759
Speaker 1: interesting game on Sunday. Obviously the Sunday night game is

954
00:44:52,800 --> 00:44:55,239
Speaker 1: the big one. But this is going to determine where

955
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:57,160
Speaker 1: do the Packers end up, And that's the team I

956
00:44:57,160 --> 00:44:59,040
Speaker 1: have my eye on for the long shot kind of

957
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:02,600
Speaker 1: path tohere a super Bowl possibly. I like the underdog here.

958
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:06,640
Speaker 1: Give me the Cowboys plus five against Washington. Really interesting game.

959
00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:09,840
Speaker 1: We got Dan Quinn's Washington against his old team. We

960
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:13,319
Speaker 1: got McCarthy and Zimmer maybe coaching for their future. They

961
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:15,040
Speaker 1: certainly don't want to get embarrassed like they did a

962
00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:17,879
Speaker 1: week ago. Dallas just won this game a month ago.

963
00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:21,440
Speaker 1: They won by eight points the week before Thanksgiving against Washington.

964
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:24,440
Speaker 1: And Washington in the last six weeks, which I think

965
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 1: probably includes that game, Washington is tenth in DVA. They're

966
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:30,920
Speaker 1: pretty good, but they're one spot behind the Cowboys. The

967
00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:33,920
Speaker 1: Cowboys have been not terrible down the stretch. They just

968
00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:36,080
Speaker 1: were out of it way too early for it to matter.

969
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:39,680
Speaker 1: But they've been league average offensively. They've been really good defensively.

970
00:45:40,239 --> 00:45:42,759
Speaker 1: Not last week they got crushed by the Eagles, but

971
00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 1: I think that Micah Parsons has changed this defense and

972
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:48,799
Speaker 1: made them really really good again, and Mike Zimmer has

973
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:52,360
Speaker 1: found some answers with this unit. So Washington the playoff team,

974
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:56,520
Speaker 1: their defense is the week unit. And again another team

975
00:45:56,600 --> 00:45:59,759
Speaker 1: coming off an overtime game. Recurring theme here we're gonna

976
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:03,200
Speaker 1: tie defense. And then some trends that favor the Cowboys.

977
00:46:03,239 --> 00:46:05,080
Speaker 1: This was one that was on the Panthers as well.

978
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:07,759
Speaker 1: Teams that lose by thirty one or more that are

979
00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:10,359
Speaker 1: then four point underdogs are more at home sixty seven

980
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:14,760
Speaker 1: percent ats. I can't really get to better than Washington

981
00:46:14,840 --> 00:46:17,919
Speaker 1: minus one or two here. The must win text came

982
00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 1: in and put this price toward Dallas to where we're

983
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:24,680
Speaker 1: gonna cross the key numbers. So I like Cowboys plus five.

984
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:27,080
Speaker 1: And then here's mask Cleayer on this one rather than

985
00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 1: the money line, which is also a bad number. If

986
00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:32,800
Speaker 1: Washington drops to the seven seed we talked about this before,

987
00:46:33,320 --> 00:46:35,399
Speaker 1: that's a great spot for the Packers to go, get

988
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 1: the win, move up to the six, get a much

989
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:41,239
Speaker 1: better path Packers minus ten against the Bears. I'm not

990
00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:43,239
Speaker 1: that worried about the Packer's gonna after the Vikings, and

991
00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:45,759
Speaker 1: I'm certainly not worried against the Bears, who are bad

992
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:49,719
Speaker 1: at everything right now. Chicago offense, bad on the road,

993
00:46:49,880 --> 00:46:52,840
Speaker 1: bad from behind, defense is bad early. I think that

994
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:55,600
Speaker 1: one could get away from Chicago. So here's the parlay here,

995
00:46:56,320 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 1: Washington loses, green Bay wins big. Green Bay sees Washington

996
00:47:00,600 --> 00:47:03,440
Speaker 1: losing is like, let's go, baby, get out of here. Eagles,

997
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:06,240
Speaker 1: we get the better one. So Dallas on the money

998
00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:10,520
Speaker 1: line plus one ninety Packers cover the ten. Put those together.

999
00:47:10,880 --> 00:47:14,280
Speaker 1: That's the parlay plus four fifty seven, and then the Packers.

1000
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:16,360
Speaker 1: You want that future if that happens too.

1001
00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:17,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that would make sense.

1002
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:20,279
Speaker 3: I mean, I still feel like there's an opportunity there,

1003
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:22,560
Speaker 3: especially with all these games at one o'clock and then

1004
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:24,480
Speaker 3: the four o'clock's kind of lining up where they need

1005
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:26,680
Speaker 3: each other and have to watch each other. Where there's

1006
00:47:26,719 --> 00:47:29,239
Speaker 3: like halftime, you probably get an idea where there's going

1007
00:47:29,320 --> 00:47:31,719
Speaker 3: to be some blowouts and some opportunities. So I do

1008
00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:35,360
Speaker 3: think having these like long tail parlays kind of in

1009
00:47:35,400 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 3: your back pocket for some pizza change will give you

1010
00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:41,120
Speaker 3: an opportunity while these games are going on.

1011
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 1: Con see the counder lightning round the thunder.

1012
00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:51,839
Speaker 3: All right, So Philly and the Giants, we're gonna start here.

1013
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:55,000
Speaker 3: The only note I have Week seventeen or later Brian

1014
00:47:55,080 --> 00:47:58,239
Speaker 3: Dable five and oh against the spread, which you know

1015
00:47:58,400 --> 00:48:00,560
Speaker 3: kind of goes into you know, is there gonna be spoiler?

1016
00:48:00,600 --> 00:48:03,120
Speaker 2: Are they going to win another game here? So?

1017
00:48:03,360 --> 00:48:05,239
Speaker 3: What do you think Philly and the Giants? Which which

1018
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:06,799
Speaker 3: direction does this game end up going?

1019
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:09,400
Speaker 1: This is my one favorite of the week. And this

1020
00:48:09,480 --> 00:48:11,400
Speaker 1: is a little bit of a lighter pick here because

1021
00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 1: the game doesn't matter. But I like the Eagles. I

1022
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:16,800
Speaker 1: like Eagles minus two. I know this game means nothing.

1023
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:18,880
Speaker 1: They're locked into the two seeds. They're gonna look like

1024
00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:21,839
Speaker 1: have Tanner McKee starting at quarterback. They just see when

1025
00:48:21,880 --> 00:48:24,319
Speaker 1: Tanner McKee came in last week. This team wants to

1026
00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:26,960
Speaker 1: play well for him. It's a home game for Philly.

1027
00:48:27,480 --> 00:48:30,000
Speaker 1: They care about these games. They want This is to

1028
00:48:30,160 --> 00:48:34,719
Speaker 1: me a betting on team infrastructure and team chemistry sort

1029
00:48:34,719 --> 00:48:37,759
Speaker 1: of pick here. If this was a healthy game with

1030
00:48:38,160 --> 00:48:41,120
Speaker 1: the Eagles trying. I have bet at least fourteen for

1031
00:48:41,200 --> 00:48:43,880
Speaker 1: the Eagles, So how far down do you move the

1032
00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:47,480
Speaker 1: line with no Jalen Hurts. Now, look, with the Chiefs,

1033
00:48:47,480 --> 00:48:50,879
Speaker 1: we talked about them not being so star Leyden. That's

1034
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:54,040
Speaker 1: not true with the Eagles, especially offensively. No Hurts, no

1035
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:57,319
Speaker 1: Saguon Barkley, sorry, no record coming for him, No Ag

1036
00:48:57,480 --> 00:49:00,399
Speaker 1: Brown or DeVante Smith. I have to imagine a lot

1037
00:49:00,400 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 1: of offense left. But again, fifty three man roster, the

1038
00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:07,360
Speaker 1: offensive line is still gonna be pretty good. The defense

1039
00:49:07,440 --> 00:49:09,200
Speaker 1: that's been number one all season is still gonna be

1040
00:49:09,239 --> 00:49:13,279
Speaker 1: pretty good. Vic Fangio, the coaching, They're still gonna have

1041
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:15,880
Speaker 1: a lot of advantages there. And this game kind of

1042
00:49:15,880 --> 00:49:18,759
Speaker 1: looks under looks windy and gross, lots of trends point under.

1043
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:22,280
Speaker 1: But to me, this is an organizational win for Philly

1044
00:49:22,800 --> 00:49:25,600
Speaker 1: and a team that I think wants to lose. For

1045
00:49:25,640 --> 00:49:28,400
Speaker 1: the Giants, I'm not so sure they just won. But

1046
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:31,160
Speaker 1: the Eagles have won six of the last seven matchups

1047
00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:33,920
Speaker 1: by an average of twenty points a game. They've won

1048
00:49:34,000 --> 00:49:37,400
Speaker 1: fourteen of seventeen against the Giants, and I think, like,

1049
00:49:37,800 --> 00:49:39,879
Speaker 1: look the way we bet this team a lot this year.

1050
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:43,160
Speaker 1: We wanted Eagles second half right because you just want

1051
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:45,880
Speaker 1: a lead and just run the ball and bleed the

1052
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:49,000
Speaker 1: clock out. That's the whole game this week. That's the

1053
00:49:49,040 --> 00:49:52,200
Speaker 1: only thing the game is is just get through the game.

1054
00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:54,840
Speaker 1: Let the Giants lose like they want to lose, and

1055
00:49:54,880 --> 00:49:57,319
Speaker 1: wouldn't it but you, by the way, so New York

1056
00:49:57,360 --> 00:50:00,560
Speaker 1: Giants to blow the number one pick and then still

1057
00:50:00,600 --> 00:50:02,880
Speaker 1: lose ugly the next week and leave the bitter feeling

1058
00:50:02,880 --> 00:50:04,759
Speaker 1: in their mouth after they already ruin their won't pick

1059
00:50:04,760 --> 00:50:07,880
Speaker 1: anyway like that just seems so Giants. And suddenly like

1060
00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:11,680
Speaker 1: Kenny Gainwell is rushing for a touchdown and Tanner McKee

1061
00:50:11,680 --> 00:50:13,799
Speaker 1: is getting a touchdown as Adrian Brown chucks the ball

1062
00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:16,600
Speaker 1: up into the stands. This is a vibes pick for me,

1063
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:18,920
Speaker 1: and the Eagles are going to close the season on

1064
00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:21,719
Speaker 1: a win. The Giants are going to lose. Here's a

1065
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:23,840
Speaker 1: fun stat that I looked up in bat Labs this week.

1066
00:50:24,239 --> 00:50:26,879
Speaker 1: Teams that have won ten to thirty percent of their

1067
00:50:26,880 --> 00:50:30,399
Speaker 1: games week seventeen and eighteen. So not like a winless team.

1068
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:33,000
Speaker 1: They don't want to lose the last game. They don't

1069
00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:34,880
Speaker 1: want to be that. But as long as there is

1070
00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:37,799
Speaker 1: anything better than that ten to thirty percent and they're

1071
00:50:37,800 --> 00:50:40,879
Speaker 1: on the road, those teams are twenty and forty two

1072
00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:43,879
Speaker 1: against the spread, thirty two percent cover rate in week

1073
00:50:43,920 --> 00:50:46,520
Speaker 1: seventeen and eighteen, failing to cover about almost six points

1074
00:50:46,560 --> 00:50:50,600
Speaker 1: a game. So I like Eagles minus two, and I'll

1075
00:50:50,680 --> 00:50:54,040
Speaker 1: jump right into the escalator here two different ways. I

1076
00:50:54,080 --> 00:50:58,200
Speaker 1: think Eagles cover and win big probably, so fourteen plus

1077
00:50:58,239 --> 00:51:01,040
Speaker 1: win is plus four fifty Four of the last seven

1078
00:51:01,080 --> 00:51:02,960
Speaker 1: matchups here the Eagles have won by twenty four or

1079
00:51:03,000 --> 00:51:05,360
Speaker 1: more points. I think this goes just be an ugly

1080
00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:07,600
Speaker 1: game where the Eagles are run, run, running all through

1081
00:51:07,600 --> 00:51:10,399
Speaker 1: the Giants. And then we've had a lot of just win,

1082
00:51:10,520 --> 00:51:14,080
Speaker 1: baby parlays. How about it just lose, baby parlay. I

1083
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:16,760
Speaker 1: just gave you the stat about the Giants, the teams

1084
00:51:16,760 --> 00:51:19,399
Speaker 1: that are ten to thirty percent wanting to lose at

1085
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:22,360
Speaker 1: the end. So the Giants right now are tied with

1086
00:51:22,400 --> 00:51:25,200
Speaker 1: the Browns, Titans, and Patriots all three and thirteen all

1087
00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:28,640
Speaker 1: for those top four picks. Now, look, the Patriots I

1088
00:51:28,640 --> 00:51:30,319
Speaker 1: think need to lose. You said you don't want to

1089
00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:33,080
Speaker 1: bet that game. Patriots want to keep that top pick.

1090
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:35,480
Speaker 1: It's right there. It's one game away. I don't even

1091
00:51:35,520 --> 00:51:37,080
Speaker 1: know if Drake may is gonna be playing that game,

1092
00:51:37,120 --> 00:51:39,040
Speaker 1: watching them put in like Joe Milton for the second

1093
00:51:39,080 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 1: half or something. We got Shder Sanders and cam Ward

1094
00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:46,839
Speaker 1: in this draft. We got Travis Hunter that do everything, receiver, cornerback,

1095
00:51:46,920 --> 00:51:49,440
Speaker 1: whatever he is. I think these teams are going to

1096
00:51:49,480 --> 00:51:51,960
Speaker 1: want to lock in now here, and the numbers from

1097
00:51:51,960 --> 00:51:53,640
Speaker 1: the past tell us that's the case. And the weird

1098
00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:56,839
Speaker 1: part is we get reduced lines here because these teams

1099
00:51:56,880 --> 00:51:59,600
Speaker 1: are playing the Bills who are arresting, the Texans who arresting,

1100
00:51:59,640 --> 00:52:03,000
Speaker 1: the Eagles who are arresting. Somehow, the Titans, who you've

1101
00:52:03,000 --> 00:52:05,399
Speaker 1: talked about as two and fourteen against the spread, are

1102
00:52:05,520 --> 00:52:09,239
Speaker 1: favorites in Week eighteen, which is objectively funny, But that

1103
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:13,080
Speaker 1: stat about these teams fading. I looked up the straight up,

1104
00:52:13,480 --> 00:52:16,080
Speaker 1: so ten to thirty percent win rate against somebody better

1105
00:52:16,120 --> 00:52:19,560
Speaker 1: than that since twenty ten. The team that has the

1106
00:52:19,600 --> 00:52:22,279
Speaker 1: better win rate seventy two and thirteen straight up, so

1107
00:52:22,320 --> 00:52:24,759
Speaker 1: that's an eighty five percent hit rate. They're winning by

1108
00:52:24,800 --> 00:52:27,880
Speaker 1: almost thirteen points a game, fourteen percent away in the

1109
00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:32,160
Speaker 1: money line, So just lose, baby, parlay. We're betting against

1110
00:52:32,200 --> 00:52:34,200
Speaker 1: all four of those teams three and thirteen. So we're

1111
00:52:34,200 --> 00:52:37,680
Speaker 1: taking the money line for the Bills, the Texans, the Eagles,

1112
00:52:38,200 --> 00:52:40,000
Speaker 1: and if you want the Ravens, you're not going to

1113
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:42,360
Speaker 1: juice the money line much with throwing that one in there.

1114
00:52:42,640 --> 00:52:45,640
Speaker 1: But all four together is plus five point fifty eight.

1115
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:49,120
Speaker 1: Now here's what's crazy. If that stat tells us eighty

1116
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:51,759
Speaker 1: five percent of the time these teams win against these

1117
00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:55,759
Speaker 1: bottom feeders, eighty five percent to the fourth times four

1118
00:52:55,840 --> 00:52:58,239
Speaker 1: times is still better than a coin flip. This should

1119
00:52:58,280 --> 00:53:01,960
Speaker 1: be like an even odds money rating plus five fifty.

1120
00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:06,800
Speaker 1: Basically that basically these bad teams should lose, like we

1121
00:53:06,920 --> 00:53:09,759
Speaker 1: all know they should lose. They get a good quarterback pick,

1122
00:53:09,760 --> 00:53:13,640
Speaker 1: get a good draft pick, so just lose, baby, fading

1123
00:53:14,040 --> 00:53:17,000
Speaker 1: these losing teams. Betting on the Eagles, who I like

1124
00:53:17,040 --> 00:53:19,480
Speaker 1: best out of the four, well, and the Ravens. Obviously,

1125
00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:22,280
Speaker 1: I can't believe I'm betting on the Texans here, but sure,

1126
00:53:22,520 --> 00:53:26,040
Speaker 1: let the Texans beat on the stupid favored Titans and

1127
00:53:26,080 --> 00:53:29,480
Speaker 1: then Bill's or the Patriots. So Bill's Texans, Ravens, Eagles

1128
00:53:29,520 --> 00:53:31,960
Speaker 1: plus five point fifty on the money line Parlay.

1129
00:53:32,880 --> 00:53:35,880
Speaker 3: You knew lose, Baby Lose would include the Giants, especially

1130
00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:38,799
Speaker 3: this season. All right, let's go to the next game here,

1131
00:53:39,200 --> 00:53:42,160
Speaker 3: Miami and the Jets. The only real question I have

1132
00:53:42,600 --> 00:53:44,680
Speaker 3: is will the Jets close his favorites again?

1133
00:53:44,880 --> 00:53:45,520
Speaker 2: Because why not?

1134
00:53:45,800 --> 00:53:47,600
Speaker 3: Right now, that looks like that line is down to

1135
00:53:47,640 --> 00:53:51,239
Speaker 3: basically one with Tyler Hutley starting right now minus one

1136
00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:53,920
Speaker 3: from Miami. But honestly, I feel like we're gonna get

1137
00:53:53,920 --> 00:53:56,680
Speaker 3: to Sunday and everyone's gonna be like Aaron Rodgers last

1138
00:53:56,719 --> 00:54:00,799
Speaker 3: game and Jets will close minus one or something like that.

1139
00:54:00,880 --> 00:54:02,440
Speaker 2: But what do you think there? What are you doing

1140
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:04,120
Speaker 2: with Miami and New York? Yeah?

1141
00:54:04,160 --> 00:54:06,680
Speaker 1: I looked at the Jets side here, and I certainly

1142
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:09,400
Speaker 1: would lean that way. But I'm gonna I'm done with sides.

1143
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:11,319
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the under. Give me the under thirty

1144
00:54:11,440 --> 00:54:13,439
Speaker 1: nine and a half. I think this is an ugly

1145
00:54:13,520 --> 00:54:16,120
Speaker 1: game here, and look, Miami can win and make the

1146
00:54:16,120 --> 00:54:19,520
Speaker 1: playoffs if Denver loses. Nobody wants that. We don't need

1147
00:54:19,560 --> 00:54:22,440
Speaker 1: to see whatever left of Miami in the playoffs. In Buffalo,

1148
00:54:22,480 --> 00:54:24,959
Speaker 1: we already literally saw that game in the playoffs last year.

1149
00:54:25,480 --> 00:54:29,279
Speaker 1: Miami last week beat the Browns twenty to three. That

1150
00:54:29,440 --> 00:54:31,560
Speaker 1: was not indicative of that game. That was an ugly

1151
00:54:31,640 --> 00:54:34,359
Speaker 1: game for both offenses. Miami's offense had a thirty six

1152
00:54:34,360 --> 00:54:37,759
Speaker 1: percent success rate. They only won that game like they

1153
00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:39,839
Speaker 1: did because the Browns were all three in the red

1154
00:54:39,960 --> 00:54:43,719
Speaker 1: zone six turnovers, four of them on downs. It was bad.

1155
00:54:43,760 --> 00:54:45,839
Speaker 1: The Jets were down forty to nothing get to run

1156
00:54:45,840 --> 00:54:48,160
Speaker 1: out the field till they got two garbage time touchdowns.

1157
00:54:48,920 --> 00:54:51,279
Speaker 1: This is a bet on Tyler Huntley or a bet

1158
00:54:51,280 --> 00:54:54,560
Speaker 1: against Tyler Huntley. Basically, if I ever see Tyler Huntley

1159
00:54:54,719 --> 00:54:56,600
Speaker 1: likely starting a game as he probably is here with

1160
00:54:56,680 --> 00:54:59,520
Speaker 1: Tua and hip injury, I'm taking the under every single

1161
00:54:59,560 --> 00:55:03,640
Speaker 1: time Tyler Huntling games when he starts eleven and two

1162
00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:06,719
Speaker 1: to the under thirty one points a game average in

1163
00:55:06,760 --> 00:55:09,399
Speaker 1: those games when two has not played the whole game.

1164
00:55:09,440 --> 00:55:12,880
Speaker 1: This season, here's Miami's point total twenty last week against

1165
00:55:12,920 --> 00:55:17,880
Speaker 1: the Browns. Otherwise ten three, twelve, ten and fifteen. This

1166
00:55:17,960 --> 00:55:20,400
Speaker 1: team can't score the ball eleven point six points a

1167
00:55:20,440 --> 00:55:25,120
Speaker 1: game without to sixty four drives five touchdowns, four of

1168
00:55:25,160 --> 00:55:28,160
Speaker 1: them in the fourth quarter, so they're averaging barely over

1169
00:55:28,200 --> 00:55:31,440
Speaker 1: a point per drive on the season. The Jets i

1170
00:55:31,440 --> 00:55:33,759
Speaker 1: don't know what's with the Jets. Do they quit already?

1171
00:55:34,120 --> 00:55:37,920
Speaker 1: Is Rogers retiring? Will Miami quit in the cold if

1172
00:55:37,920 --> 00:55:40,399
Speaker 1: they know two has basically cooked? Anyways? Do they really

1173
00:55:40,480 --> 00:55:42,840
Speaker 1: want a playoff game to win a cold game in

1174
00:55:42,880 --> 00:55:44,680
Speaker 1: New York, to stay in New York for another week

1175
00:55:44,719 --> 00:55:47,279
Speaker 1: and lose a cold game in Buffalo? I just see

1176
00:55:47,320 --> 00:55:51,480
Speaker 1: a lot of ways that this just is like an ugly, awful,

1177
00:55:51,800 --> 00:55:53,760
Speaker 1: don't even show down a red zone sort of game.

1178
00:55:54,360 --> 00:55:57,160
Speaker 1: So I like the under thirty nine and a half,

1179
00:55:57,440 --> 00:56:00,239
Speaker 1: and again I would lean Jets here, but I don't

1180
00:56:00,280 --> 00:56:03,120
Speaker 1: want any part of either side here. I just hope

1181
00:56:03,160 --> 00:56:05,080
Speaker 1: that the Jets do win so we don't have to

1182
00:56:05,080 --> 00:56:07,400
Speaker 1: worry about watching Miami in the playoffs the week after.

1183
00:56:08,600 --> 00:56:11,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the under is probably the safest call

1184
00:56:11,120 --> 00:56:13,719
Speaker 3: because I just don't know which way you're going to

1185
00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:16,640
Speaker 3: get motivational wised, Like, I don't even think you know

1186
00:56:16,680 --> 00:56:19,560
Speaker 3: what Rogers is thinking entering this one. Obviously he'd like

1187
00:56:19,600 --> 00:56:23,719
Speaker 3: to get that Devonte touchdown, but aside from that, and

1188
00:56:23,719 --> 00:56:27,120
Speaker 3: then on Miami side, you obviously going for the playoff spot.

1189
00:56:27,160 --> 00:56:30,480
Speaker 3: But without two of they have really looked terrible from

1190
00:56:30,560 --> 00:56:34,000
Speaker 3: a consistency standpoint, on the offensive side, and if you

1191
00:56:34,040 --> 00:56:36,080
Speaker 3: look at the look ahead, look ahead was forty five,

1192
00:56:36,200 --> 00:56:37,960
Speaker 3: now down to thirty nine. I don't know if that's

1193
00:56:38,080 --> 00:56:41,759
Speaker 3: enough of a drop. What's your what's your escalator there?

1194
00:56:41,880 --> 00:56:43,799
Speaker 1: Yeah? Mine is basically what you just said. Back to

1195
00:56:43,800 --> 00:56:47,120
Speaker 1: the Devonte Adams, well, I still like the Devonte Adams touchdown.

1196
00:56:47,880 --> 00:56:50,600
Speaker 1: Rogers is at four ninety nine. Now, look, I'm a

1197
00:56:50,680 --> 00:56:53,640
Speaker 1: Vikings fan, you know I would love to see him

1198
00:56:53,680 --> 00:56:56,239
Speaker 1: retire at four ninety nine and just have the bittersweet

1199
00:56:56,239 --> 00:56:59,440
Speaker 1: feeling of no touchdowns his last two games off into retirement.

1200
00:56:59,680 --> 00:57:01,640
Speaker 1: You know, Oh, I love that. But if he does

1201
00:57:01,680 --> 00:57:05,040
Speaker 1: throw the touchdown, it's probably Devanta Adams still five touchdowns

1202
00:57:05,040 --> 00:57:07,799
Speaker 1: his last five games, ten of the last seventeen with

1203
00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:11,319
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. I think that it would not shock me

1204
00:57:11,680 --> 00:57:13,799
Speaker 1: if the Jets only real goal this game is just

1205
00:57:13,800 --> 00:57:16,800
Speaker 1: to get Aaron Rodgers that five hundred touchdown, in fact,

1206
00:57:17,160 --> 00:57:19,439
Speaker 1: maybe even despite him, and get him out of here. Go ahead,

1207
00:57:19,480 --> 00:57:21,640
Speaker 1: go off to retirement. We are ready to move on.

1208
00:57:22,120 --> 00:57:25,640
Speaker 1: Take your boy DeVante with you. So I'm not playing

1209
00:57:25,680 --> 00:57:28,760
Speaker 1: just the Adams touchdown because I don't need the juice anymore.

1210
00:57:28,880 --> 00:57:32,040
Speaker 1: But give me the under thirty nine and a half

1211
00:57:32,080 --> 00:57:35,480
Speaker 1: with the Atoms touchdown. Now we got negative correlation because

1212
00:57:35,520 --> 00:57:37,840
Speaker 1: there's only so many points you can get when you're

1213
00:57:37,920 --> 00:57:40,480
Speaker 1: under thirty nine and a half with the Atams touchdown

1214
00:57:40,520 --> 00:57:42,840
Speaker 1: is plus four to forty. And again we need that

1215
00:57:42,920 --> 00:57:45,680
Speaker 1: touchdown early in the game. So under three and a

1216
00:57:45,760 --> 00:57:49,560
Speaker 1: half with the first Atoms touchdown is plus fourteen hundred.

1217
00:57:49,880 --> 00:57:52,439
Speaker 1: So those are the angles there. Give me that five

1218
00:57:52,520 --> 00:57:54,680
Speaker 1: hundred touchdown if it does happen, make it go to

1219
00:57:54,720 --> 00:57:57,120
Speaker 1: Devanta Adams and then nothing else the rest of the game.

1220
00:57:57,520 --> 00:57:59,640
Speaker 1: So if you're looking to tail this pick, look for

1221
00:57:59,680 --> 00:58:02,240
Speaker 1: the quick clip button in the Action Network app.

1222
00:58:02,360 --> 00:58:06,360
Speaker 3: All right, let's get to the final game here, Ravens

1223
00:58:06,400 --> 00:58:10,520
Speaker 3: and Browns. And as we are recording this podcast, Bailey

1224
00:58:10,680 --> 00:58:13,840
Speaker 3: Zappi sounds like he will now be the starting quarterback

1225
00:58:14,000 --> 00:58:18,000
Speaker 3: of the Cleveland Browns for this one actually, and it

1226
00:58:18,040 --> 00:58:23,400
Speaker 3: looks like that Baltimore is up to a twenty point favorite.

1227
00:58:24,120 --> 00:58:24,280
Speaker 4: Now.

1228
00:58:24,320 --> 00:58:27,760
Speaker 3: That would be the largest spread in any game since

1229
00:58:28,600 --> 00:58:32,440
Speaker 3: October of twenty twenty one, when Kyler Murray was a

1230
00:58:32,520 --> 00:58:37,320
Speaker 3: twenty and a half point favorite against Davis Mills. And

1231
00:58:37,640 --> 00:58:41,280
Speaker 3: you know, pretty crazy for it to be at this number.

1232
00:58:41,600 --> 00:58:43,600
Speaker 3: At this time, and I believe this is going to be,

1233
00:58:43,840 --> 00:58:46,640
Speaker 3: you know, maybe the largest line ever for a final

1234
00:58:46,680 --> 00:58:51,000
Speaker 3: week of the regular season, So expectations have never been higher.

1235
00:58:51,520 --> 00:58:54,320
Speaker 2: What are you doing with this Baltimore Cleveland game.

1236
00:58:54,760 --> 00:58:56,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, here we are at the end of the regular season.

1237
00:58:56,880 --> 00:58:59,200
Speaker 1: It's my last pick of the regular season. We're going

1238
00:58:59,240 --> 00:59:01,440
Speaker 1: back to the first game on the slate, and I

1239
00:59:01,520 --> 00:59:03,800
Speaker 1: want the first score on the slate. Give me the

1240
00:59:03,840 --> 00:59:07,240
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry first touchdown plus three to zero five. So

1241
00:59:07,840 --> 00:59:10,160
Speaker 1: this game stinks. We all know, like the Ravens are

1242
00:59:10,200 --> 00:59:12,360
Speaker 1: going to run the Browns off the field. I think

1243
00:59:12,400 --> 00:59:15,920
Speaker 1: it's hilarious that Bailey Zappi comes in for Dorian Thompson

1244
00:59:16,000 --> 00:59:19,160
Speaker 1: Robinson and the line moves against him. Just retire, buddy, Like,

1245
00:59:19,200 --> 00:59:22,120
Speaker 1: you're not an NFL quarterback if you're replacing DTR and

1246
00:59:22,120 --> 00:59:24,440
Speaker 1: the line moves against you. We had the DTR mind

1247
00:59:24,440 --> 00:59:27,320
Speaker 1: shaft last week. We hit that. Can't do anymore because

1248
00:59:27,320 --> 00:59:29,480
Speaker 1: the team total for Cleveland is eleven and a half

1249
00:59:29,520 --> 00:59:32,400
Speaker 1: this week, so good luck with that. I looked at

1250
00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:35,120
Speaker 1: Baltimore first half. We know that's a good Lamar Jackson thing.

1251
00:59:35,160 --> 00:59:38,600
Speaker 1: But here's the thing. If Baltimore rolls early, and if

1252
00:59:38,640 --> 00:59:41,960
Speaker 1: the Browns can't score, why not just bet first touchdown.

1253
00:59:42,280 --> 00:59:45,120
Speaker 1: So here's the one player incentive that I'm backing this week,

1254
00:59:45,160 --> 00:59:47,960
Speaker 1: other than I guess Adams a little bit. Derrick Henry

1255
00:59:48,040 --> 00:59:50,360
Speaker 1: is one off the lead for rushing touchdowns for the

1256
00:59:50,440 --> 00:59:53,120
Speaker 1: league for the season. We had that one fifteen to

1257
00:59:53,120 --> 00:59:56,640
Speaker 1: more touchdowns plus five fifty. We're one away there. He's

1258
00:59:56,720 --> 01:00:00,400
Speaker 1: one off Jamal Lewis's team record for Baltimore's set two

1259
01:00:00,440 --> 01:00:03,320
Speaker 1: decades ago. I think they get him that touchdown. And

1260
01:00:04,040 --> 01:00:06,640
Speaker 1: he's been a scoring machine this season. First eleven games

1261
01:00:06,680 --> 01:00:09,400
Speaker 1: of the season, he's scored every single game. Then he

1262
01:00:09,440 --> 01:00:12,720
Speaker 1: went scoreless for four games. Then last week he scored

1263
01:00:12,760 --> 01:00:15,840
Speaker 1: the first touchdown. In fact, I don't bet first touchdowns.

1264
01:00:15,880 --> 01:00:18,480
Speaker 1: I had to look this up for it. Derrick Henry

1265
01:00:18,720 --> 01:00:21,440
Speaker 1: is the league leader in first touchdowns. Last week was

1266
01:00:21,440 --> 01:00:23,919
Speaker 1: his seventh time this season that he had the first

1267
01:00:23,960 --> 01:00:26,240
Speaker 1: touchdown in a game. There's only three other guys in

1268
01:00:26,240 --> 01:00:28,720
Speaker 1: the NFL with even five first touchdowns, and then everyone

1269
01:00:28,720 --> 01:00:31,760
Speaker 1: else is below that. Derrick Henry has done that almost

1270
01:00:31,800 --> 01:00:34,040
Speaker 1: half of the games the Ravens have played this season.

1271
01:00:34,480 --> 01:00:38,120
Speaker 1: So plus three or five for that first touchdown and

1272
01:00:38,120 --> 01:00:40,680
Speaker 1: then here's the last escalator on what's already a three

1273
01:00:40,760 --> 01:00:45,480
Speaker 1: hundred pick. Remember from earlier this year, when Henry's team wins,

1274
01:00:45,760 --> 01:00:47,840
Speaker 1: he gets one hundred yards and two touchdowns. Well, we

1275
01:00:47,920 --> 01:00:50,480
Speaker 1: know they're winning. This is the surest win of the season.

1276
01:00:51,080 --> 01:00:55,840
Speaker 1: So Derrick Henry looking pretty good lately. It's a windy game,

1277
01:00:56,000 --> 01:00:58,040
Speaker 1: it looks ugly. You're just trying to run down the

1278
01:00:58,040 --> 01:00:59,760
Speaker 1: clock and get the win and get out of here.

1279
01:01:00,280 --> 01:01:04,120
Speaker 1: Last two weeks Pittsburgh and Houston, Derrick henrygan's good defenses.

1280
01:01:04,480 --> 01:01:06,920
Speaker 1: Over three hundred yards six point one yards of carry,

1281
01:01:07,360 --> 01:01:10,160
Speaker 1: no surprise, because you look at Henry splits year by year.

1282
01:01:10,640 --> 01:01:13,520
Speaker 1: December is his best month five point two yards of

1283
01:01:13,560 --> 01:01:18,320
Speaker 1: carry except January five point nine, only four games, but

1284
01:01:18,360 --> 01:01:20,320
Speaker 1: he's averaging one hundred and forty four yards a game

1285
01:01:20,360 --> 01:01:23,280
Speaker 1: in January for his career, including his career high two

1286
01:01:23,320 --> 01:01:27,520
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty came in January. So one hundred yards

1287
01:01:27,640 --> 01:01:30,520
Speaker 1: and two scores for Derrick Henry. He's done that twenty

1288
01:01:30,560 --> 01:01:32,840
Speaker 1: two times and one hundred and thirty four games, but

1289
01:01:33,480 --> 01:01:35,360
Speaker 1: all but two of those times came in to wins,

1290
01:01:35,640 --> 01:01:38,320
Speaker 1: So you'll get just wins, which again we know they're winning.

1291
01:01:38,400 --> 01:01:41,320
Speaker 1: This is the shirts win on the schedule, seventy seven.

1292
01:01:41,400 --> 01:01:45,080
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry wins twenty times. He's hat one hundred yards

1293
01:01:45,080 --> 01:01:48,160
Speaker 1: and two touchdowns. That's over a quarter of those games.

1294
01:01:48,400 --> 01:01:50,400
Speaker 1: We get one hundred yards and two touchdowns at plus

1295
01:01:50,400 --> 01:01:53,640
Speaker 1: five fifty. So that's the first escalator. And then back

1296
01:01:53,680 --> 01:01:57,000
Speaker 1: to the first touchdown Henry one hundred yards, two touchdowns,

1297
01:01:57,080 --> 01:02:00,480
Speaker 1: one of which is the first touchdown, eleven to one.

1298
01:02:00,760 --> 01:02:03,880
Speaker 1: That's it. That's the last escalator. We end where we start,

1299
01:02:03,920 --> 01:02:06,600
Speaker 1: we start, where we end. It's pizza money. Hopefully we

1300
01:02:06,640 --> 01:02:08,640
Speaker 1: hit some of these long shot, crazy escalators.

1301
01:02:09,240 --> 01:02:09,439
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1302
01:02:09,440 --> 01:02:11,919
Speaker 3: I have Derek Henry most rushing touchdowns this year, which

1303
01:02:11,960 --> 01:02:14,760
Speaker 3: has been an absolute sweat and comes down to this

1304
01:02:14,920 --> 01:02:18,240
Speaker 3: exact moment in this exact game. So let's hopefully we

1305
01:02:18,360 --> 01:02:19,520
Speaker 3: all cash together.

1306
01:02:19,600 --> 01:02:19,920
Speaker 2: All right.

1307
01:02:19,960 --> 01:02:23,400
Speaker 3: Well, that's it. That is the regular season. I honestly

1308
01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:26,760
Speaker 3: cannot wait for Sunday night. We will do our recap

1309
01:02:26,800 --> 01:02:29,480
Speaker 3: podcast where we go over the entire slate on what

1310
01:02:29,520 --> 01:02:30,880
Speaker 3: happens on Saturday and Sunday.

1311
01:02:31,160 --> 01:02:32,640
Speaker 2: And this one's gonna be a wild one.

1312
01:02:32,680 --> 01:02:36,160
Speaker 3: I'm expecting some upsets, you know, some you know, some

1313
01:02:36,200 --> 01:02:39,720
Speaker 3: really really crazy stuff. Hopefully it is a fun Week

1314
01:02:40,160 --> 01:02:43,200
Speaker 3: eighteen all right, So that'll be the Action Network podcast

1315
01:02:43,240 --> 01:02:46,040
Speaker 3: for Week eighteen Best Bets episode. Do not forget to

1316
01:02:46,080 --> 01:02:48,880
Speaker 3: download the free award winning Action Work app to see

1317
01:02:48,920 --> 01:02:51,760
Speaker 3: more of our Action Hour contributors. Plus you can track

1318
01:02:51,800 --> 01:02:54,560
Speaker 3: your own bets. Also check out the Action Work discord

1319
01:02:54,640 --> 01:02:57,840
Speaker 3: server Chop it Up with Experts. I'm on there fellow gamblers,

1320
01:02:58,160 --> 01:03:00,200
Speaker 3: a ton of people chatting it up through games a

1321
01:03:00,240 --> 01:03:02,800
Speaker 3: link in the description of this podcast, and do not

1322
01:03:02,920 --> 01:03:07,320
Speaker 3: miss our Week eighteen betting preview episode with Stucky and

1323
01:03:07,480 --> 01:03:10,040
Speaker 3: Raybund which is out now and like I said, we

1324
01:03:10,120 --> 01:03:12,919
Speaker 3: will be back Sunday night for the recap episode. Thank

1325
01:03:12,960 --> 01:03:15,280
Speaker 3: you for listening, Good luck with your bets, and enjoy

1326
01:03:15,360 --> 01:03:19,280
Speaker 3: the slate this weekend. Last Scott Hansen, last Red Zone,

1327
01:03:19,440 --> 01:03:19,880
Speaker 3: Enjoy ahead.

1328
01:03:20,200 --> 01:03:35,720
Speaker 4: See a letter guys.

1329
01:03:36,760 --> 01:03:40,200
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1330
01:03:40,600 --> 01:03:43,560
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1331
01:03:43,720 --> 01:03:46,360
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1332
01:03:46,440 --> 01:03:47,240
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler