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Speaker 1: The most valuable commandity I know of is information. Wouldn't

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Speaker 1: you agree A five dollars? This is a rating a lesson,

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Speaker 1: but they tackled ship one. You're saying that humans need

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Speaker 1: fantasy to make life bearable, Humans need fantasy to be

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Speaker 1: h my goodness, that was good.

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Speaker 2: I suppose the best, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn, babe.

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Speaker 2: Let's and welcome to the Fantasy Flex Props Podcast. We're

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Speaker 2: gonna talk all about player props today. I am your host,

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Speaker 2: Chris Raybon, joined by my guy Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 1: Sean, what's going on?

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Speaker 3: Man?

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Speaker 1: It's the end of the week. How you feeling feeling good?

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Speaker 3: You know last week I was saying I felt even

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Speaker 3: better than I did after week one when I went

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Speaker 3: five and oh, and I ended up going one and four, So.

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Speaker 1: I apologize for that.

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Speaker 3: But the beauty of price picks is, you know, going

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Speaker 3: five and oh you can get like ten to one payout.

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Speaker 3: So I can, you know, have a bad week, I

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Speaker 3: think five weeks in a row now and still be up.

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Speaker 3: So hopefully I can be a little bit better this week.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, apologies for last week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a ten to one payout, so I actually

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Speaker 2: just put some of those in right before we have

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Speaker 2: to the show.

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Speaker 1: So we'll talk about those props right.

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Speaker 2: Now, and let's start with our first quarterback prop. We

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Speaker 2: do a quarterback prop each, two running back props and

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Speaker 2: two receiving props. So who you got for QB in

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Speaker 2: week number three? I'm going over Justin Fields. It's two

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifteen and a half passing yards right now.

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Speaker 2: You know this is his debut, It's it's a tougher

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Speaker 2: matchup against the Browns, but you know the Bears are

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Speaker 2: seven point underdogs.

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Speaker 1: This should be a pass heavy game script.

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Speaker 3: And you know I've been pretty bullish on Justin Fields

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Speaker 3: all off season, so I love that we get the

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Speaker 3: line pretty low. Oh and his rushing yard line is

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Speaker 3: forty four and a half, which seems high to me.

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Speaker 3: I don't think he's going to be that much of

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Speaker 3: a scrambling quarterback. I think he's gonna lean on his

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Speaker 3: arm a bit more than the market's indicating right now.

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Speaker 3: So I'm actually projecting him closer to two hundred and

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Speaker 3: forty yards. I mean, he has Alan Robinson and Darnell

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Speaker 3: Mooney at his disposal, so I think he's gonna, you know,

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Speaker 3: have a stinky good passing game this week. So I'm

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Speaker 3: going over to fifteen and a half, and I'd probably

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Speaker 3: take it all the way up to you know, two

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Speaker 3: twenty five and a half two thirty right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I have justin Field thrown for two fifty and

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Speaker 1: running for forty five, So I'm over both. Oh so

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Speaker 1: you do have rushing for a ton of yards, because.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I have mad E carries eight carries for forty five.

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Speaker 2: I don't feel like that's excessive. I mean, what do

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Speaker 2: you have, Like you have like ten carries and ten

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Speaker 2: pass attempts and is in his debut or something crazy

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Speaker 2: like that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I think well some of them are near downs.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, yeah, I don't think that the rushing line

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Speaker 3: is way off. I think just we don't know that

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Speaker 3: there's a wide range of outcomes, whereas I think his

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Speaker 3: his passing floor is pretty high right now. So that

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Speaker 3: that's why I'm going with the over on that. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: it won't surprise me if he rushes for fifty yards.

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Speaker 3: He's certainly talented enough. He flashed out ability in preseason.

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Speaker 3: But I don't think he's like a jail and Hurts

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Speaker 3: type of scrambling quarterback. That's why I'm, you know, saying,

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Speaker 3: just throw that in as a lighter play. But I'm

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Speaker 3: more confident in my passing yard projection from right now. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I mean I'm you're on the under for field rushing.

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Speaker 3: I'm just saying I'm over everything, like I'm way over

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Speaker 3: the passing yard. So I totally agree with your play.

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Speaker 3: This two fifteen. That's like a Davis Mills esquad. And

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Speaker 3: remember Mac Jones.

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Speaker 2: His line was like two forty or something in week

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Speaker 2: or to fifty, so like we knew that was too high. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: but it's like this, Yeah, this to me is an over.

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Speaker 2: I did bet the Bears plus seven and a half,

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Speaker 2: so maybe I'm a little biased, but you know, I

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Speaker 2: think this Cleveland defense hasn't really come together quite yet

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Speaker 2: in terms of like being what we thought it would

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Speaker 2: be giving all the additions. I mean, he gave up

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Speaker 2: three thirty seven of mahomes.

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Speaker 1: That'll happen.

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Speaker 2: But Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills, you know, still combined

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Speaker 2: for two twenty seven. I think that's and Tyrod Taylor

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Speaker 2: was ten of eleven for one to twenty five, so

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Speaker 2: and he only had a rush once.

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Speaker 1: So maybe that's you know, that could play into it.

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Speaker 2: But the Browns couldn't stop Tyrod Taylor and they couldn't

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Speaker 2: stop Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: So since this sets up well for Justins Dealez to

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Speaker 1: go over his passing prop, I like it.

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Speaker 2: My quarterback prop is going to be Kyler Murray over

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Speaker 2: two hundred and eighty and a.

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Speaker 1: Half passing yards.

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Speaker 2: Kyler Murray's passing yards has been one of those things

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Speaker 2: that's just like gone up in my model.

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Speaker 1: I haven't passing for over three hundred yards this week, so.

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Speaker 2: I look at the I look at Kyler Murray in

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Speaker 2: two different game scripts this year. In his first game script,

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Speaker 2: it was a blowout win, two hundred eighty nine yards still,

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Speaker 2: so he still would have gone over in.

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Speaker 1: A close game. He still throws for four hundred.

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Speaker 2: Jacksonville allowed two hundred and ninety one to Tyrod Taylor

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Speaker 2: in a blowout and win a closer game. They still

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Speaker 2: allowed three twenty eight to Teddy Bridge order, so Jacksonville's

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Speaker 2: giving up way over to eighty twice at least ten

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Speaker 2: yards over, and Kyler's gone at least nine yards over

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Speaker 2: this number in both games. So you haven't there's no

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Speaker 2: scenario yet in which this has gone under I know

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Speaker 2: people are thinking, Okay, it's gonna be.

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Speaker 1: An easy win for Arizona. Not so sure about that.

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Speaker 2: This is a classic trap game for Arizona. You know,

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Speaker 2: they got some tough games on deck. They're going on

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Speaker 2: their road here. They took a touchdown favorite, so I

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Speaker 2: think you'll still see Kyrad throw his normal amount of passes.

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Speaker 2: Rondo Moore is getting better and better.

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Speaker 1: I know Hopkins misses some practice, but that's that's normal

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Speaker 1: for him, So I think he'll be fine. So, yeah,

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Speaker 1: Kyra over to eighty and a half.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm right in line with you, but I do

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Speaker 3: take all your points. And I was a bit concerned

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Speaker 3: about a potential blowout. But it does seem like, you know,

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Speaker 3: Jaguars plus seven and a half might be the play.

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Speaker 4: Oh no, no, no, no, no, no, you and I can't.

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Speaker 4: Oh yeah no we ca Yeah, we don't do that, understand. No,

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Speaker 4: let him cover first, That's all I'm saying. Yeah, let

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Speaker 4: them cover a spread first.

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Speaker 3: Right, For people that want to bet on that game,

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Speaker 3: it seems like a decent I'm.

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Speaker 1: Still saying dope. I'm not saying be on the Cardinals.

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Speaker 1: I'm still saying, I just don't. I don't, right, don't.

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Speaker 3: And I agree that Rondelle Moore, Rondelle Moore, not that

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Speaker 3: Kyler Murray hasn't really unlocked his ceiling yet, but he

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Speaker 3: had room to grow as a passer, and I think

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Speaker 3: Rondelle Moore is helping unlock that. So yeah, I think

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Speaker 3: that the market's probably underreacting to Kyler's first two games,

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Speaker 3: and I could definitely see why somebody wanted to go over.

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Speaker 1: To eighty against the Jaguars. Come on, this is an

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Speaker 1: easy matchup.

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Speaker 2: So remember remember Kyler for his career, and I've pointed

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Speaker 2: this out because you know, for his career, he came

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Speaker 2: into the year averaging about seven yards per an attack.

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Speaker 2: So it's not that he has to throw more, he's

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Speaker 2: just getting more efficient. This year, he's averaging ten point

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Speaker 2: one yards in a tip. Do we expect him to

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Speaker 2: do that a year?

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Speaker 1: Of course not. But can you average seven and a half,

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Speaker 1: you know, seven?

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Speaker 2: Approach eight with this with this amount of weaponry against

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Speaker 2: the Baddie?

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Speaker 1: Absolutely? Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Who is your first running back prop for week number three?

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Speaker 3: Let's go with Najee Harris to go under sixty nine

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Speaker 3: and a half rushing yards.

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Speaker 1: Where have I heard that one before?

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Speaker 3: Oh?

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, snake you Yeah, well, I liked it so

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Speaker 1: much I stole you. You can have it.

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Speaker 3: It's a great, great play though, to appreciate it. Yeah, So,

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Speaker 3: I mean he has to earn most of his yards.

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Speaker 3: I said this after Week one, where eighty four percent

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Speaker 3: of his rushing yards have been after contact this year,

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Speaker 3: his which you know, is good. It means he's earning

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Speaker 3: his yards. He's a good running back, but his offensive

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Speaker 3: line is doing him no favors. So I think we'll

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Speaker 3: just see them dump off to him to be you know,

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Speaker 3: sort of an extension of the run game. I still

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Speaker 3: like him in fantasy as a result, but I'm afraid

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Speaker 3: we just can't really be projecting him for this many

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Speaker 3: rushing yards yet. So I'm projecting him closer to sixty here,

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Speaker 3: and i'd probably take this down to about sixty five

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Speaker 3: half to sixty six and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, i'd probably take it down under sixty

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Speaker 2: to at least to sixty. I have him under sixty

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Speaker 2: yards projected this week like that, and that's the mean.

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Speaker 2: So the median you got to take another you know,

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Speaker 2: a few yards off that, so you know, I think

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Speaker 2: he'll do work in the passing game. I think I

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Speaker 2: haven't projected for about four catches, but I bet the

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Speaker 2: under in the Cincinnati Pittsburgh game. Cincinnati's alligned just four

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Speaker 2: and a half yards per play on defense, so this

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Speaker 2: is not an easy matchup all the way around. And

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Speaker 2: Ben Roethlisberger's banged up now, so maybe that you know,

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Speaker 2: maybe they run more, but they they haven't really been

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Speaker 2: able to run, so that's the issue. It's it's you know,

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Speaker 2: it's gonna be tough. I think tough sweating for Harris.

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Speaker 1: So I like that one. I already talked about that

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Speaker 1: on the other pod, So I'll just go right into mine.

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Speaker 2: Austin Eckler over fifty three and a half rushing yards.

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Speaker 2: He's been over this prop in both games, albeit barely.

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Speaker 2: He's fifty seven and fifty four, and it's two games

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Speaker 2: this year. He's averaging twelve carries a game, so he'd

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Speaker 2: have to average four and a half yards per carry

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Speaker 2: to go over this number against Kansas City. Well, for

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Speaker 2: his career, he averages four point seven yards per carry.

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Speaker 2: Kansas City is giving up one hundred and thirty rushing

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Speaker 2: yards per game and five point seven yards per carry

201
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Speaker 2: two running backs this season.

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Speaker 1: And this is what they do. They invite you to

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Speaker 1: run the football.

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Speaker 2: They want you to run because they know that they

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Speaker 2: have Patrick Mahomes on the other side and he can

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Speaker 2: hit a seventy five yard touchdown in one play, So

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Speaker 2: they don't feel like they need to kind of stop

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Speaker 2: the run and do They just don't.

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Speaker 1: They really just don't want to.

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Speaker 2: Give you anything, you know, huge big plays, over the

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Speaker 2: top things like that, and they feel like most weeks

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Speaker 2: they won't beat themselves. Funny that I say that after

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Speaker 2: they beat themselves last week. But still though I think

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Speaker 2: the Refts helped with that.

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Speaker 1: Right, you know.

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Speaker 2: But I mean, no, you don't see Patrick Mahomes make

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Speaker 2: a worse throw or Edwards a layer of fumble like that,

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Speaker 2: you know, in succession very often.

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Speaker 1: So I'll still I.

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Speaker 2: Oh oh oh no, No, the Chargers they're talking about

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs like the Chiefs to invite the run because

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs are going to beat themselves on offense, like

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Speaker 2: they're gonna if anything, they're gonna beat you on offense.

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Speaker 2: So they don't exactly you can run for five yeards

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Speaker 2: to carry all day against him and that's what they've

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Speaker 2: done in the Mahomes era every year, the bottom of

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Speaker 2: the league in DVOA against the run. You know, the

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Speaker 2: yard the efficiency is very good for opponents against the run.

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Speaker 1: So again, ecker doesn't have to do anything crazy.

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Speaker 2: He just has to average his normal carries below his

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Speaker 2: career average, way below the case average on defense, and

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Speaker 2: he still barely.

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Speaker 1: Gets over this one.

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Speaker 2: So I think you have you could have a big

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Speaker 2: game on the ground for ecor So Eckler over fifty

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Speaker 2: three and a half rushing yards at prize picks.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, love it. I mean he was. He was my

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Speaker 1: cheek coach.

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Speaker 3: I think he was yours too on our Week three

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Speaker 3: DFS preview show. And yeah, the Chiefs defense ranks thirty

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Speaker 3: second in DVO against the run. Not surprising because like

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Speaker 3: you said, that's kind of part of their plan and

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Speaker 3: it works. So yeah, I love Eckler here both. You know,

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Speaker 3: his rushing and receiving props look enticing on the over.

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Speaker 3: So I'm in line with you here, all right, where are.

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Speaker 2: You going for your second running back prop?

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Speaker 3: I'm going with Fournette to go under twenty one and

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Speaker 3: a half receiving yards and this is a bit of

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Speaker 3: a projection because he's cleared this number in each of

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Speaker 3: the first two games. Week when he had five catches

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Speaker 3: for twenty seven yards, last week he had four catches

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Speaker 3: for twenty four. But we really haven't seen Joe Bernard

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Speaker 3: be involved too much yet, and maybe that's due to

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Speaker 3: the ankle injury he had going into the season, but

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Speaker 3: I think either way, they're going to start to get

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Speaker 3: Joe a little bit more involved and Leo's going to

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Speaker 3: concede some of that work to him. And plus Leo's

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Speaker 3: catch rates eighty two percent right now, twenty four percent

259
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Speaker 3: target rate, so I expect those to regress slightly. So

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Speaker 3: this is kind of getting ahead of the future trend

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Speaker 3: I think where he's not going to be clearing twenty

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Speaker 3: yards every game. I'm projecting this actually closer to seventeen yards,

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Speaker 3: which you know, a five six point gap and receiving

264
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Speaker 3: yards for running back is a pretty big deal. So

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Speaker 3: I do think there's quite a bit of value here,

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Speaker 3: and I would I would probably take it down to

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Speaker 3: about nineteen and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, my main projection for Fournette is actually eighteen, so

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Speaker 2: I'm well under this number. Even I'm even lower than

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Speaker 2: you on his receiving. You look at week one, he

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Speaker 2: ran fifty eight percent of the routes per dropback, but

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Speaker 2: that was with Ronald Jones running only four percent and

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Speaker 2: getting benched in the process. In week two, Fournette that

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Speaker 2: they knocked fifteen percent off of that down to forty

275
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Speaker 2: three and Jones went up to thirty three. So Bernard

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Speaker 2: actually also went down. But I think they don't like

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Speaker 2: there was a quote, and this is why, again, most

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Speaker 2: of my research during the week stems not from like

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Speaker 2: reading a lot of like you know, other fantasy content.

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Speaker 2: It's like a lot of just team beat reports things

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Speaker 2: like things like that. And there's a quote from Bruce

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Speaker 2: Arians that said, we don't like to throw to our backs.

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Speaker 1: We will we only do it if we really have to.

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Speaker 2: We like to go to the downfield. And that matches

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Speaker 2: with exactly what we know about the offense. So I

286
00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:53,800
Speaker 2: know the Rams are gonna play some too high shell

287
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Speaker 2: so you know, but I think that's gonna invite the

288
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Speaker 2: run more than you know, the backs, because you still

289
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Speaker 2: have to protect you know, maybe have to keep him

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Speaker 2: in the block.

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Speaker 1: You're not gonna at this point gronk.

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Speaker 2: You have to keep him backing over Gronk, Like you

293
00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:10,040
Speaker 2: can't have Gronk pass blockie because he's like a Hall

294
00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:12,880
Speaker 2: of Fame a Gronk again now at this point, So yeah,

295
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Speaker 2: I like it.

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Speaker 1: I'm way under on this projection.

297
00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:18,320
Speaker 2: Well, my second running back prop, I'm going to a

298
00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:22,000
Speaker 2: guy that I was bearished for on the full season

299
00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:25,439
Speaker 2: in this number, and he's been under it twice already,

300
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Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go back to the well. DeAndre Swift

301
00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:31,280
Speaker 2: under forty and a half rushing yards thirty nine and

302
00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:34,800
Speaker 2: thirty seven in his first two games, averaging just nine

303
00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:36,959
Speaker 2: and a half carries per game. So and this is

304
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Speaker 2: what I feared earlier, you know, before the season, was

305
00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:44,679
Speaker 2: that they weren't really gonna up his carries in especially.

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Speaker 1: Not early in the year.

307
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Speaker 2: Now they're on a short week, so I see no

308
00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:49,800
Speaker 2: reason for them to give him a ton of work outside,

309
00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:52,880
Speaker 2: you know, outlining what he's already kind of received this year.

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Speaker 2: But you know, Baltimore, they've given up some points in

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00:13:57,320 --> 00:13:59,760
Speaker 2: both games, so it may seem like their defense is

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00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:03,080
Speaker 2: fall and off a little not against the run, Baltimore

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00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:06,040
Speaker 2: is allowing just forty four and a half rushing yards

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00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:08,720
Speaker 2: per game to running backs, just two point eight yards

315
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Speaker 2: per carry two opposing backfields through two weeks.

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Speaker 1: Just thirty two.

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00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:16,400
Speaker 2: Carries for eighty nine yards combined by opposing running backs

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00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:19,480
Speaker 2: into two games for Baltimore. So still playing good defense

319
00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:22,080
Speaker 2: on the ground, forcing opponents.

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Speaker 1: To go to the air.

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Speaker 2: I think DeAndre Swift fall short of this again, probably

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Speaker 2: not way short, but I think it's another week where

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Speaker 2: he ends up in the thirties.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you've been making a killing fading DeAndre Swift early

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00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:35,640
Speaker 3: in the season with his rushing stats. But yeah, we

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00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:38,280
Speaker 3: don't want to touch his receiving stats. Obviously he's going

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00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:40,320
Speaker 3: to tear it up there. But you know, Jamal Williams

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00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:43,360
Speaker 3: has looked good. You know, the Lions are what eight

329
00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:46,080
Speaker 3: and a half seven and a half point eight point

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Speaker 3: underdogs as we record this on Yeah against the Ravens

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00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:51,680
Speaker 3: who will probably you know, dominate time and possession. So

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00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:55,240
Speaker 3: this is another spot to fade Swift's rushing ability. But

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Speaker 3: you know, I think he's still a good play in

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00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:01,440
Speaker 3: fantasy because he he does have that high, high upside

335
00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:03,600
Speaker 3: when it comes to receiving stats. So love the early

336
00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:06,040
Speaker 3: season fade right now on Swiss rushing stats.

337
00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:08,280
Speaker 2: Yes, high high ups too, did you see him jump

338
00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:11,880
Speaker 2: straight over a packer last week, I mean Monday Night Swift.

339
00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:13,840
Speaker 1: Yeah he oh yeah, he's legit.

340
00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:16,800
Speaker 2: He cleared somebody like straight up, like right over his head.

341
00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:18,800
Speaker 2: Like no, I don't even think like a foot knocked

342
00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:19,680
Speaker 2: on a helmet or anything.

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00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:20,960
Speaker 1: It was like it was pretty impressive.

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00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:22,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, you're not You're not fading him because you think

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00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:25,720
Speaker 3: he's a bad football player. It's just the all the

346
00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:29,600
Speaker 3: variables right now are going against him now with the

347
00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:30,920
Speaker 3: rushing stats anyway.

348
00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:32,880
Speaker 2: And you should be proud of me because I'll give

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Speaker 2: you a little tease to the next two. This is

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00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:37,920
Speaker 2: my only under of the podcast. So oh wow, they're

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00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:40,560
Speaker 2: going to say you bumped up Nick Chubb's yard per

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00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:41,200
Speaker 2: carried at.

353
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Speaker 1: Five and a half.

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Speaker 2: Hey out, I'm getting it all one thing and it's

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Speaker 2: a next up Here on the Fantasy Flex podcast is

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Speaker 2: a segment we call Elite Entries, where Sewn and I

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Speaker 2: dived into the Prize Picks app to compare our player

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Speaker 2: projections to the wines to build some entries.

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Speaker 1: Remember with Prize Picks, you choose the picks you like.

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00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:02,760
Speaker 1: You build your entry, and you could go two, three, four, or.

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Speaker 2: Even five picks and your payout is based on how

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Speaker 2: big your lineup is, So if you build one of

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Speaker 2: those five picks, you get ten to one payout. Let's go, Sean,

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Speaker 2: We'll do two each year. What's your first prize picks?

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Speaker 2: A lead entry best bet.

366
00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:18,120
Speaker 1: For week number three.

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00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:21,960
Speaker 3: So my favorite bet right now is justin Fields to

368
00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:25,440
Speaker 3: go over two hundred and fifteen and a half passing yards.

369
00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:29,480
Speaker 3: This number is way too low for his NFL debut.

370
00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:31,400
Speaker 3: I think the market might be sleeping on it. I

371
00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:33,880
Speaker 3: don't know why it's so low. Yes, it's a tougher

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00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:36,960
Speaker 3: matchup against the Browns, but you know the Bears are

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00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:39,360
Speaker 3: seven point underdogs, so this this should be a pass

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00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:43,200
Speaker 3: heavy game script for the rookie. He has two really

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00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:46,680
Speaker 3: good receivers and Alan Robinson and Darnell Mooney, So you know,

376
00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:49,960
Speaker 3: I'm projecting this culture into two forty two forty five,

377
00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:52,720
Speaker 3: and I would take this up a extra ten yards,

378
00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:54,040
Speaker 3: So I would take this all the way up to

379
00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:56,840
Speaker 3: two twenty five or even two thirty. That's how much

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00:16:56,880 --> 00:16:58,720
Speaker 3: I love this profit and that's how much I think

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00:16:58,720 --> 00:16:59,560
Speaker 3: this line is off.

382
00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:03,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Browns have not had much success in pass

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00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:06,560
Speaker 2: defense except anyone but Davis Mill so I liked this

384
00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:08,520
Speaker 2: as well. I have this set of how two fifty

385
00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:13,040
Speaker 2: for my first Prize Picks a Weed Entry best bet

386
00:17:13,040 --> 00:17:15,120
Speaker 2: for Week number three. I'm going with Kyler Murray over

387
00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:19,040
Speaker 2: two hundred eighty and a half passing yards. Again, Murray's

388
00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:21,240
Speaker 2: been over this number twice in two different game scripts

389
00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:24,280
Speaker 2: two eighty nine in the bowout of Tennessee, four hundred

390
00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:28,640
Speaker 2: in a close game against Minnesota. And Jacksonville has given

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00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:32,240
Speaker 2: up more than this to not only Teddy Bridgewater with

392
00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:34,360
Speaker 2: three hundred and twenty eight last week in a low

393
00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:38,119
Speaker 2: scoring game. But Tyrod Taylor hit two ninety one in

394
00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:43,040
Speaker 2: Week one. So this Jacksonville pass defense still a ways away.

395
00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:44,399
Speaker 1: And Kyler Murray.

396
00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:45,760
Speaker 2: Had a round of room to grow at his efficiency

397
00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:48,360
Speaker 2: coming into the year, averaging only seven point oher yard

398
00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:51,120
Speaker 2: for an attempt. So he's at ten this year over

399
00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:53,560
Speaker 2: ten that can regress and he could still easily create

400
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:56,040
Speaker 2: this number. So Kyler Murray over two hundred and eighty

401
00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:58,960
Speaker 2: and a half passing yards for me, Sean, who is

402
00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:02,760
Speaker 2: your second prize Picks a Weed Entry best bet for

403
00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:03,800
Speaker 2: Week number three?

404
00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:07,119
Speaker 3: So my second favorite bet right now is Cooper Cup

405
00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:10,119
Speaker 3: to go over seventy seven and a half receiving yards.

406
00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:12,439
Speaker 1: Now, there's no way he can keep.

407
00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:15,480
Speaker 3: Up this thirty four percent target rate, so I'm projecting

408
00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:19,439
Speaker 3: progression into this, but still, I mean, he's in a

409
00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:22,080
Speaker 3: complete mind Medald with Matthew Stafford right now. They're just

410
00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:25,840
Speaker 3: clicking on all cylinders. He's runner out every Matthew Stafford

411
00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:28,280
Speaker 3: drop back this season, so he's getting a ton of run.

412
00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:29,960
Speaker 3: This is a game that I think is going to

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00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:32,760
Speaker 3: be a shootout against the Buccaneers. We've seen the Buccaneers

414
00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:35,560
Speaker 3: allow massive games or receivers in the past, so I'm

415
00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:38,520
Speaker 3: not worried about this matchup at all. I'm projecting this

416
00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:40,720
Speaker 3: closer to eighty eight and a half yard, so I

417
00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:42,560
Speaker 3: would take this all the way up to eighty two

418
00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:43,000
Speaker 3: and a half.

419
00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:46,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have coup ay even ninety for this game.

420
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,600
Speaker 2: And remember, as you said about the shootout, both of

421
00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:53,200
Speaker 2: these teams top three in situation neutral paced, so should

422
00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:55,879
Speaker 2: be a back and forth affair. I'm going with Austin

423
00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:58,480
Speaker 2: Eckler for my second best bet over fifty three and

424
00:18:58,480 --> 00:18:59,440
Speaker 2: a half rushing yards.

425
00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:01,600
Speaker 1: He's clear this number in both games.

426
00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:03,439
Speaker 2: So far fifty four and fifty seven.

427
00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:04,959
Speaker 1: He's averaged twelve carries.

428
00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:07,679
Speaker 2: He averages four point seven yards of carry for his career.

429
00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:10,119
Speaker 2: He wude only need to average four point five yards

430
00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:12,160
Speaker 2: of carries to get over in this game, and he's

431
00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:14,400
Speaker 2: going against the defense that's given up five point seven

432
00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:18,000
Speaker 2: yards a carrier running backs. So love the matchup back

433
00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:21,320
Speaker 2: way here. That's going to be my second best bet.

434
00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:24,280
Speaker 2: Austin Ecker over fifty three and a half. So that's

435
00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:28,880
Speaker 2: our elit entry for today week number three. As a recap,

436
00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:31,920
Speaker 2: sean going with Justin Fields over two hundred and fifteen

437
00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:32,520
Speaker 2: and a half.

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00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:34,960
Speaker 1: Passing yards and Cooper Cup over.

439
00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:37,439
Speaker 2: Seventy seven and a half receiving yards. I'm going with

440
00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:39,640
Speaker 2: Kyler Murray over two hundred and eighty and a half

441
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:42,560
Speaker 2: passing yards and Austin Eck were over fifty three and

442
00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:46,000
Speaker 2: a half rushing yards. As a reminder, these Prize Picks

443
00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:48,960
Speaker 2: markets do move, so you want to get on it

444
00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:52,400
Speaker 2: quickly if you want to lock in the best number.

445
00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:54,920
Speaker 2: If you haven't created a Prize Picks account yet, check

446
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:57,880
Speaker 2: out the link in our episode description and they will

447
00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 2: match your first deposit of one one hundred dollars. Or

448
00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:05,560
Speaker 2: visit prize picks dot com and use the promo code

449
00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:12,520
Speaker 2: Action one zero. That's Action one zero at prizepicks dot com.

450
00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:16,359
Speaker 1: Okay, now back to this Fantasy flex. Hell, there you

451
00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:19,879
Speaker 1: go with your first wide receiver or tight end prop

452
00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:20,920
Speaker 1: for week number three.

453
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:23,359
Speaker 3: So I think I might have stolen this one from you.

454
00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:25,760
Speaker 3: This one just seems like a no brainer right now.

455
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:29,240
Speaker 3: And it's Cooper Cup over seventy seven and a half

456
00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:32,000
Speaker 3: receiving yards. I'm actually surprised to see it this low.

457
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,680
Speaker 3: And you know, I'm projecting quite a bit of regression

458
00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:40,160
Speaker 3: going forward, just because he can't maintain this thirty four

459
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:43,520
Speaker 3: percent target rate when he's running hero out like that's

460
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:47,399
Speaker 3: probably unsustainable. Who knows, but you know he has one

461
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:50,400
Speaker 3: hundred percent routes run rate through each of the first

462
00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:53,840
Speaker 3: two games. He's in a clear mind meld with Matthew Stafford.

463
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:56,960
Speaker 3: I mean, the connection between the two is unreal. So

464
00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:59,400
Speaker 3: I expect them to still, you know, connect for seven

465
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 3: to eight receptions here, and I'm projecting this up closer

466
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,879
Speaker 3: to eighty eight and a half, like approaching ninety.

467
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:07,920
Speaker 1: I mean, he's your.

468
00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 3: Wide receiver too, right, he's my wide receiver three in

469
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:11,960
Speaker 3: fantasy Yeah, he's.

470
00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:13,479
Speaker 2: Down to three now, I think Adam Oh he's down

471
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:17,639
Speaker 2: in my little up you know, post podcast upseeah, Okay,

472
00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 2: but you know he.

473
00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:21,119
Speaker 1: Climbed up in Green Bay, you know, I think they climbed.

474
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, but if he keeps up, if he keeps this up,

475
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 3: you know, Davante Adams, Terry Hill, He's in that range

476
00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:31,040
Speaker 3: when it comes to just raw projection. So I think

477
00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 3: right now, we take anything we see in the seventies

478
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:34,760
Speaker 3: with this guy.

479
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:36,359
Speaker 1: So I'm going over here, and I would take it

480
00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:36,720
Speaker 1: up to.

481
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:39,360
Speaker 2: Pretty much called eighty half media to cut off from

482
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:42,480
Speaker 2: me right around eighty three eighty four.

483
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:44,040
Speaker 1: So I like it a lot.

484
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:46,639
Speaker 2: He's he's my top, He's my number three wide out

485
00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:49,080
Speaker 2: in fantasy, just like you. I don't think he will

486
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:50,960
Speaker 2: flow any lower than that. If anything, he might bump

487
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,119
Speaker 2: back up to number two. But yeah, great play. I

488
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 2: have him for yeah, upwards of more than six and

489
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:59,200
Speaker 2: almost seven catches in this game. So and remember Tampa

490
00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 2: Bay good deep, but they'll give up catches like we

491
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 2: saw that against Dallas.

492
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:04,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, we saw it, you know against Atlanta.

493
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:07,080
Speaker 2: Like they're gonna play cover three, they're gonna play a

494
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:08,120
Speaker 2: single high safety.

495
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:10,120
Speaker 1: You're canna be able to get some catches on them

496
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:13,480
Speaker 1: with your receiver, So yeah, I'm over this one as well.

497
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:18,120
Speaker 2: For my first receiver prop, I'm going Justin Jefferson over

498
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:21,159
Speaker 2: seventy three and a half receiving yards. This one is

499
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 2: one where he he went over it in half of

500
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 2: his games last year, even though he wasn't playing full

501
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 2: snaps until like week three or four, and then he

502
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 2: came just short in the two games this year, sixty

503
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:31,880
Speaker 2: sixth and seventy one.

504
00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:35,440
Speaker 1: But remember who they're playing this week, Seattle.

505
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:39,920
Speaker 2: Justin Jefferson lines up in the spot where he's going

506
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:43,719
Speaker 2: to face Trey Flowers the most, and Cray Flowers has

507
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:45,439
Speaker 2: really struggled to the point where I don't know they

508
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 2: might venture, but either way, you know, Flowers has giving

509
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 2: up nine targets, seven catches, one hundred and thirty yards,

510
00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:54,440
Speaker 2: a touchdown, a one to fifty six passer rating. They're

511
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:58,000
Speaker 2: gonna target this matchup, you know. And the total is

512
00:22:58,000 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 2: fifty five in his game, fifty five and a half.

513
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 2: It's a two point spread, and that it opened I

514
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:04,440
Speaker 2: think around a pickup more Seattle minus one.

515
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:05,879
Speaker 1: So it could be another.

516
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 2: Close game, high scoring game, and Jefferson's gonna have the

517
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,159
Speaker 2: best matchup out of the out of the trio of

518
00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:12,160
Speaker 2: Minnesota receivers.

519
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 1: So to me, this is where Justin Jefferson gets back to,

520
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 1: you know, putting up one of those stat lines that

521
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:19,399
Speaker 1: we kind of came to know him for last year.

522
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 1: Because he's kind of been quiet this year.

523
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,680
Speaker 2: We've been talking about kJ Osbourne and Adam Demon scores

524
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 2: touchdowns every game. Yeah, but remember Justin Jefferson last season

525
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 2: averaged eighty seven and a half yards per game. This

526
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:32,719
Speaker 2: year he's at sixty eight. So in a great matchup,

527
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 2: does he clear seventy three and a half? I think absolutely?

528
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:36,440
Speaker 1: Yeah.

529
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:38,919
Speaker 3: I'm with you here and our boy kJ Osborne has

530
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 3: looked great in the first two weeks, but I think

531
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 3: he's going to take a step back, you know, in

532
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 3: terms of target share. So I think that that's going

533
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:50,359
Speaker 3: to start going Justin Jefferson's way. And like I said

534
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,320
Speaker 3: before he went on last year, Justin Jefferson his prop

535
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 3: was eighteen and a half yards.

536
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:55,959
Speaker 1: And we know what happened.

537
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 3: Usually he gets off to this low start in week

538
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 3: three historically on a one year sample size is when

539
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:03,640
Speaker 3: Justin Jefferson breaks out.

540
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 1: So I see a trend here.

541
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,120
Speaker 2: Imagine if you could bet, like if you could lock

542
00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:10,159
Speaker 2: in like a prop for the next year, like if

543
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,440
Speaker 2: you could lock in like Justin Jefferson eighteen and a half,

544
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 2: like an option for like this year's week three.

545
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 3: Last year, I know, it was so disappointing just to

546
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 3: just take eighteen and a half and I just win

547
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 3: my bet and you know what, do you have one

548
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:27,200
Speaker 3: hundred and seventy four yards? And then the next by

549
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:29,680
Speaker 3: the next week he was up to the low fifties,

550
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:31,920
Speaker 3: I think, and the rest is history. But that was

551
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 3: fun being able to get Justin Jefferson below twenty receiving

552
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:36,399
Speaker 3: yards if you could believe it.

553
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 1: Hey, I mean, I know you have like.

554
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:40,359
Speaker 2: A little column in your spreadsheet where you do all

555
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 2: the like distribution so you know, you know sportsbooks like

556
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 2: you bet like over sixty, over eighty, over one hundred,

557
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,760
Speaker 2: over one hundred twenty based on those same distributions. So

558
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:52,480
Speaker 2: you got to start you got to start dabbling in those,

559
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 2: like you know, those little more exotic receiving yard props.

560
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe for a different show, but oh yeah that

561
00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 1: was d G and shit.

562
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:05,359
Speaker 2: It's true though, like sometimes like Valdes Scantling, like Marquise Brown,

563
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:05,920
Speaker 2: guys like that.

564
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, you got it. You can't just take

565
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 1: the media.

566
00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 2: You gotta go like with the highest number they post

567
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 2: is exactly high ceiling five hundred, Yeah, exactly.

568
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 3: That's why Valda's scantling. Yeah, if there's a prop for

569
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 3: zero catches, you take it, or you know, one hundred

570
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 3: plus yards.

571
00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:24,120
Speaker 1: Or you take both.

572
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 2: And if you want to bet the numbers, right, you

573
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 2: probably exactly exactly. But yeah, where do you go for

574
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 2: your second receiving prop? I am going with Marquise Brown

575
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:39,399
Speaker 2: under four and a half receptions here. It looks like

576
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 2: he missed practice again today. That's kind of been the

577
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 2: theme so far this season.

578
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:46,680
Speaker 3: He's been dealing with the ankle injury where he missed

579
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 3: his practice time and think it's totally fine comes Sunday.

580
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 3: But this week, you know that they have an easier

581
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 3: matchup against Lions. Maybe they don't lean on him as much.

582
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 3: Maybe they lean on Sammy Watkins here. And like I

583
00:25:57,320 --> 00:25:59,440
Speaker 3: said on our Tuesday show, I think Mark Andrews is

584
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 3: due for an eruption game here, so maybe you know

585
00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:06,119
Speaker 3: they get Mark Andrews going and uh yeah, this is

586
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 3: a projection where he's one of those guys where he

587
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,760
Speaker 3: has a wide range of outcomes. It wouldn't surprise me

588
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 3: if he clears his receiving yards prop. But when it

589
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 3: comes to receptions, it's a little bit easier to find value.

590
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 3: If you're projecting four receptions like I am, that extra

591
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 3: half reception is so valuable in these markets that I

592
00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:28,840
Speaker 3: would consider this probably a sixty percent chance of going under.

593
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:30,920
Speaker 3: So I love the under four and a half receptions

594
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 3: here for Hollywood Brown.

595
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I actually have you know, I have Lamar

596
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:38,160
Speaker 2: Jackson going over his you know, normal pass yard baseline

597
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 2: against the Wons. I don't think it's a great defense

598
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 2: at this point, but I still have Marku's Brown at

599
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 2: like three point seven catches because the thing with especially

600
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 2: these and you kind of alluded to with these high

601
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 2: yard per catch receivers, which Brown usually is, is the

602
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 2: more yards they get, they don't need necessarily need any

603
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 2: more catches. Like it's like, if Marky's Brown catches a

604
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 2: fifty yard pass, that's just fifty extra yards of like offense,

605
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 2: the Ravens don't need to pick up and thus less

606
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:05,639
Speaker 2: plays they have to run before they get to the

607
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 2: end zone or kick a you know, a bank of

608
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:08,159
Speaker 2: short thing.

609
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 1: Justin tuckerfield goal so yeah, I think I'm with you.

610
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 2: I think even if he goes a little over my projection,

611
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 2: he's at four and he's still win that by a

612
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 2: half one. So unless it's a crazy game script where

613
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,880
Speaker 2: Baltimore maybe you know, maybe it's a trap game for them,

614
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 2: I see I see him, yeah, having an efficient game,

615
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 2: but not necessarily a high volume. So I like that

616
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 2: one a lot for my second receiver prop I am

617
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 2: going with. And this is going to kind of come

618
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:35,159
Speaker 2: out of nowhere, but it's why we look at the

619
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,520
Speaker 2: market and try to find, you know, which which guys

620
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 2: matchup or are all from our projections the most. And

621
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 2: it's Gerald Everett here, I'm going over twenty one and

622
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:45,879
Speaker 2: a half receiving yards. He ran sixty nine percent of

623
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 2: the routes per drop back in week one, seventy six

624
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 2: percent in week two. The Vikings are allowing sixty four

625
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 2: and a half yards per game receiving to tight end,

626
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 2: So Gerald Everett's getting you know, like most of the

627
00:27:57,600 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 2: tight end usage, like probably three quarters of it.

628
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 1: Were Seattle, so you know he would clear it based

629
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 1: on the defense.

630
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:04,639
Speaker 2: But you look back to even when he was with

631
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 2: the Rams last year, he cleared his number in ten

632
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 2: to fifteen games. And yeah, he was playing a much

633
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 2: lower snapcount because he was behind Higbee for the Rams,

634
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:14,439
Speaker 2: so I know he's had some kind of quiet games.

635
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:17,240
Speaker 2: So it was it was something that's been talked about

636
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 2: in the Seattle media. Their tight ends just got you know,

637
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 2: one catch last week. So I think they, you know,

638
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:27,400
Speaker 2: they need a little bit more high percentage passing game

639
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 2: because remember they had that big play to Lockey early,

640
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:34,400
Speaker 2: the big play to Freddie Swain late, but they couldn't

641
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 2: pick up key first downs when they needed to late

642
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 2: in the game against the Titans, and so they need

643
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 2: more high percentage passing game. And I think that's you

644
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 2: kind of have to look at, you know, what happened

645
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 2: the week before, did it work, did it not work,

646
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 2: and what possible adjustments could be made. And to me,

647
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 2: you know, Gerald Everett without even adjusting anything, just based

648
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 2: on his routes run around seven, putting it around seventy

649
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:56,880
Speaker 2: percent the average from you know, the first couple of weeks,

650
00:28:57,080 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 2: being a little conservative, he still is about re catches

651
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 2: about thirty yards for me, so I think I think

652
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 2: he's he should go well over this problem.

653
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm in line with you here. I want to

654
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 3: take this one too, damn it. But Week one kind

655
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 3: of threw me for a loop because Will Disley out

656
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 3: ran Jill Everett and routes run and I was kind

657
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 3: of worried about that, but we two dispelled that, where

658
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 3: you know, we saw Everett take a huge leap and

659
00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 3: routes run seventy six percent is pretty elite for a

660
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 3: tight end. And yeah, his target rate this year has

661
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 3: been six point seven percent, which is pretty unusual for uls.

662
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 3: We know he does like to lean on tight ends.

663
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 3: So I think last week Freddy Swain was sort of

664
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 3: the third target in this offense. I think going forward

665
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 3: it's going to be Everett.

666
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 1: So love this play.

667
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 3: It's it's kind of like Fournette where he hasn't cleared

668
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 3: this number yet this year, but I think this is

669
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 3: a good projection to kind of sail over this. So

670
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 3: I'm projecting closer to thirty actually I'm.

671
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 1: Right, So yeah, we're and it's just again it's just

672
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 1: straight up on routes.

673
00:29:57,280 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 2: The average tight end per route run is going to

674
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 2: see a target about six, sixteen, seventeen percent of the time,

675
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 2: you know, and by routes, I mean including you know,

676
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 2: routes where no one's targeted, where quarterback scrambles or whatever happens,

677
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 2: which does happen with Wilson, but yeah, he's not going

678
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 2: to be at six point seven per you know, targets

679
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 2: for no way. Yeah, So that's that's our Those are

680
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 2: our props for this episode to recap, Sean going with

681
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 2: Justin Fields over two hundred and fifteen and a half

682
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 2: passing yards, Najee Harris under sixty nine and a half

683
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 2: rushing yards, Leonard Fournette under twenty one and a half

684
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 2: receiving yards, Cooper Cup over seventy seven and a half,

685
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 2: and Marquise Brown under four and a half receptions. I

686
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 2: am going with Kyler Murray over two hundred eighty and

687
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 2: a half passing yards, Austin Eckler over fifty three and

688
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 2: a half rushing yards, DeAndre Swift under forty and a

689
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 2: half rushing yards, Justin Jefferson over seventy three and a

690
00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 2: half receiving yards, and I ruled Ever over twenty one

691
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 2: and a half receiving yards. All right, So that's gonna

692
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:09,480
Speaker 2: do it for our Week three Player Props podcast presented

693
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 2: by Prize Picks. Be sure to follow Sean Kerner on

694
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 2: Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker and me at Chris Raymond.

695
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 2: You can also follow us at those same handles in

696
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 2: the free, award winning Action Network app, where you can

697
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:27,880
Speaker 2: see all of our bets and track yours for free.

698
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 2: And be sure to check out actionnetwork dot com for

699
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 2: our fantasy projections, rankings, content and tools, and Fantasylabs dot

700
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 2: com for our dfs content.

701
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 1: And models and tools and all that good stuff. All right,

702
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 1: until next time, Let's get this twenty