WEBVTT - 10 Players Projections HATE in 2025 (Ep. 940) 0:00:05.440 --> 0:00:09.000 Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros m LB. This is 0:00:09.039 --> 0:00:12.200 the Fantasy Baseball Podcast as Me, Joey P Joe Pisapia 0:00:12.280 --> 0:00:15.360 with me today. My best friend Joe Alrico Welsh is 0:00:15.400 --> 0:00:18.560 still recovering from his illness, but Joe, Rico and I 0:00:18.600 --> 0:00:21.599 are here on our Twitch live. You can also watch 0:00:21.680 --> 0:00:24.480 on YouTube on demand of course, but we're gonna be 0:00:24.480 --> 0:00:26.479 doing a lot of stuff here on Twitch live, so 0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:29.200 make sure you go to twitch dot tv slash Fantasy 0:00:29.200 --> 0:00:31.880 Pros and you subscribe today so you could be a 0:00:31.880 --> 0:00:33.720 part of all the live mannas because that's where Leading 0:00:33.720 --> 0:00:36.080 Off is gonna be live to start the season. We're 0:00:36.120 --> 0:00:39.160 gonna be live on YouTube two on Wednesday afternoons taking 0:00:39.200 --> 0:00:41.480 your question. So don't worry, we're not leaving there. Everything 0:00:41.600 --> 0:00:45.199 is gonna be great. And today we're gonna talk about hate. 0:00:45.479 --> 0:00:49.440 Why because you know the Internet sometimes, Joe, it's such 0:00:49.520 --> 0:00:54.880 a loving, nurturing, tender place, so we thought we'd kind 0:00:54.880 --> 0:00:57.000 of changed it up from what the Internet is normally, 0:00:57.080 --> 0:00:59.639 especially social media and things like that. Instead we talk 0:00:59.680 --> 0:01:03.280 about some players, not that we hate, but the projections hate. 0:01:03.320 --> 0:01:05.840 So let's talk about this because you and Welsh did 0:01:05.840 --> 0:01:09.319 a show recently about the players projections love obviously people 0:01:09.400 --> 0:01:12.319 who might have some big breakout seasons. But we're going 0:01:12.400 --> 0:01:14.920 to flip the script today, So Joe, take us behind 0:01:15.160 --> 0:01:17.480 the mindset of this program today that you and I 0:01:17.560 --> 0:01:19.520 are going to run through with these players. 0:01:19.880 --> 0:01:21.280 Well, first, I hope the people are going to be 0:01:21.280 --> 0:01:23.039 all right dealing with some hate on the internet. I 0:01:23.040 --> 0:01:25.320 know this is such an anomaly, but we're going to 0:01:25.400 --> 0:01:27.720 try and get through it. So what I've done today, 0:01:27.760 --> 0:01:29.800 what we're going to do today is take a look 0:01:29.920 --> 0:01:33.880 at ten players that projections. We're using the word hate, 0:01:33.880 --> 0:01:37.880 but projections are lower on than the consensus, especially in 0:01:37.959 --> 0:01:40.760 terms of ADP. So what I've done is I'm putting 0:01:40.880 --> 0:01:45.160 the ATC projections into an auction calculator and the way 0:01:45.160 --> 0:01:47.160 that it works on fan graphs is that it'll show 0:01:47.200 --> 0:01:49.760 you ADP as well. So I'm picking out some players 0:01:49.760 --> 0:01:53.280 where the ADP is a lot lower than the projected 0:01:53.400 --> 0:01:56.120 auction value, and you're going to see once we get 0:01:56.160 --> 0:01:58.040 into it. I'll give you some comparisons in terms of 0:01:58.040 --> 0:02:00.480 guys who are close in terms of dollar range, very 0:02:00.480 --> 0:02:02.240 different than what you're seeing in terms of ADP. So 0:02:02.240 --> 0:02:04.520 if you are a projections. Person These are essentially the 0:02:04.560 --> 0:02:06.720 players you should be fading heading into twenty twenty five. 0:02:07.240 --> 0:02:09.119 And for those of you who always complain, hey, there's 0:02:09.120 --> 0:02:12.000 not enough salary cap information stuff on the site, we'll 0:02:12.000 --> 0:02:13.760 here you go, here you go. We're talking about it 0:02:13.840 --> 0:02:15.840 right now. Some players you might want to think twice about, 0:02:16.000 --> 0:02:18.640 at least overbidding for maybe you want to pay cost, 0:02:18.960 --> 0:02:21.760 maybe slightly less, but overbidding. Maybe you should think twice 0:02:21.800 --> 0:02:24.040 about it. One thing you should not think twice about 0:02:24.280 --> 0:02:27.120 is joining us Wednesday for Fantasy Fest, because that is 0:02:27.160 --> 0:02:30.679 going down this coming Wednesday. I can't believe it's gonna 0:02:30.680 --> 0:02:33.280 be here three pm Eastern on our YouTube channel, Fantasy 0:02:33.280 --> 0:02:36.040 Bros MLB. Subscribe today. We're trying to get to twenty 0:02:36.080 --> 0:02:38.480 five thousand before opening day. We can do it. It's 0:02:38.480 --> 0:02:41.960 a four hour live stream pack with bus breakouts, bowld predictions, 0:02:42.040 --> 0:02:44.360 and we're gonna help you crush all of your competition, 0:02:44.400 --> 0:02:47.040 embarrass your friends and relatives. That's what we're here to do. 0:02:47.120 --> 0:02:50.080 It's gonna be Me Mayor Welsh, the Worm, all the 0:02:50.120 --> 0:02:53.040 fun people, Joe Rico, and some special guests too, Chris Towers, 0:02:53.080 --> 0:02:56.520 Frank Stanfel from CBS Eric Cross, the Prospect Guru himself, 0:02:56.560 --> 0:03:00.600 Scott Pianowski, and many more. So tune in Live pros 0:03:00.840 --> 0:03:03.400 MLB YouTube channel three pm Eastern ring the belt that 0:03:03.440 --> 0:03:05.760 goes dang for notifications so you don't miss it, and 0:03:05.840 --> 0:03:08.160 of course if you do, if you have to work 0:03:08.200 --> 0:03:10.720 for a living, it'll still live on our YouTube channel. 0:03:10.720 --> 0:03:12.720 But we'd love for you to join us for four 0:03:12.760 --> 0:03:16.400 hours of wall to wall baseball. All right, let's start 0:03:16.440 --> 0:03:19.200 here with the first player on our list, Joe Alrico. 0:03:19.360 --> 0:03:22.040 Let's start with Jared Duran. Last year, Jared Duran was 0:03:22.080 --> 0:03:25.640 the darling of this program, especially me. I hype that 0:03:25.720 --> 0:03:29.400 guy so much, and even with my lofty expectations, Jared 0:03:29.480 --> 0:03:33.440 durand delivered. Scored over one hundred and ten runs, hit 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:37.320 twenty homers, stole thirty plus bases, hit to eighty five. 0:03:37.840 --> 0:03:41.080 Yet something's telling you the projections might not be as 0:03:41.160 --> 0:03:42.640 kind to him in twenty twenty five. 0:03:43.480 --> 0:03:45.920 Yeah, last year I was very interested in him as well. 0:03:46.000 --> 0:03:48.680 The price was still kind of deflated. It's not deflated 0:03:48.680 --> 0:03:51.320 this year. He's a second round pick in most rooms 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:53.760 if you're looking at the ATC projections and it's a 0:03:53.800 --> 0:03:57.400 twelve team auction calculator that I'm using, Jared Duran comes 0:03:57.400 --> 0:04:01.440 out as the thirty first overall hitter, not even including pitchers, 0:04:01.680 --> 0:04:05.920 thirty first overall hitter, behind Manny Machado, behind Jazz Chisholm, 0:04:06.120 --> 0:04:09.120 behind Katel Marte, Raphael Devers, a lot of players that 0:04:09.160 --> 0:04:12.040 are going a lot later in draft rooms than he is. 0:04:12.560 --> 0:04:14.040 I think part of it is that they're calling for 0:04:14.040 --> 0:04:16.839 some regression in terms of the batting average. ATC hasn't 0:04:16.839 --> 0:04:18.960 projected at two sixty eight when he hit two eighty 0:04:19.000 --> 0:04:22.280 five last year. They're also calling for three fewer homers, 0:04:22.480 --> 0:04:26.000 a drop by twenty runs, six fewer ribbies, and four 0:04:26.080 --> 0:04:29.560 fewer stolen bases. So really, across the board, ATC is 0:04:29.600 --> 0:04:32.640 calling for a bit of regression. With Jaron Duran, I'm 0:04:32.640 --> 0:04:34.359 really not one hundred percent sure what to make of it. 0:04:34.400 --> 0:04:37.120 I think that the projections are probably pretty fair, but 0:04:37.160 --> 0:04:39.679 he could also surpass them, especially in terms of batting average. 0:04:39.720 --> 0:04:41.440 He's hit two eighty five and two ninety five the 0:04:41.520 --> 0:04:44.000 last two seasons. I'm not sure why they would expect 0:04:44.040 --> 0:04:46.880 him to come down to the two sixties, but ATC 0:04:47.160 --> 0:04:49.040 is throwing some cold water on the Jared Duran love 0:04:49.080 --> 0:04:49.479 for sure. 0:04:50.279 --> 0:04:52.760 Yeah. Look, I'm still very much in on Jared Duran. 0:04:52.839 --> 0:04:55.920 The ADP is definitely steep, but at the same time 0:04:55.920 --> 0:04:57.839 I'm looking around the other outfielder as that he's going 0:04:57.880 --> 0:05:02.160 near Jackson Curio. Jaron Duran, I think are very close. 0:05:03.080 --> 0:05:04.839 I think there's some value if you go like a 0:05:04.920 --> 0:05:06.960 round or so later, or you know, a couple dollars 0:05:07.040 --> 0:05:09.359 later on guys like maybe the upside of Ono Cruz 0:05:09.400 --> 0:05:12.760 or why at Langford. So I get that, but I 0:05:12.839 --> 0:05:15.760 understand what you're saying. I'm not off Jaron Duran, but 0:05:15.920 --> 0:05:17.960 I don't want to overpay for him either. Let's go 0:05:18.000 --> 0:05:21.560 to another outfielder. This one's in Chicago, says Azuki. Now, 0:05:21.560 --> 0:05:25.080 this is another guy that I think still ironically is undervalued. 0:05:25.120 --> 0:05:27.200 He is the eighty six player going off the board 0:05:27.200 --> 0:05:29.520 in the consensus ADP, which you can find, by the way, 0:05:29.720 --> 0:05:32.960 at fantasypros dot com. He's the twenty sixth outfielder off 0:05:32.960 --> 0:05:35.359 the board, but he's still going ahead of guys like 0:05:35.480 --> 0:05:38.320 Luis Robert, which I do have a problem with because 0:05:38.400 --> 0:05:41.120 Robert's a guy that has shown you thirty twenty kind 0:05:41.160 --> 0:05:43.360 of a season. Say it's Azuki, I think is still 0:05:43.360 --> 0:05:45.600 more of a twenty fifteen guy, but he does give 0:05:45.640 --> 0:05:48.359 you batting average. What are you seeing in sayas Azuki's 0:05:48.400 --> 0:05:50.440 projections that have you a little concerned. 0:05:51.360 --> 0:05:54.039 So I'm personally a very big fan of Saya Suzuki. 0:05:54.080 --> 0:05:56.120 I think that he is a well rounded contributor. He 0:05:56.160 --> 0:05:58.440 can give you five category production. I think the Cubs 0:05:58.440 --> 0:06:01.320 lineup is sneaky very good this year, but if you 0:06:01.360 --> 0:06:03.680 are looking at the ATC projections, he comes in as 0:06:03.680 --> 0:06:07.120 the twenty eighth outfielder, behind Ian Hap, behind Taylor Ward, 0:06:07.560 --> 0:06:09.200 behind a lot of guys who are going well outside 0:06:09.200 --> 0:06:10.960 of the top one hundred picks, and say Suzuki is 0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:14.000 going right around pick eighty five. For another piece of context, 0:06:14.000 --> 0:06:17.159 he's projected is essentially the same value as Nick Castillanos, 0:06:17.360 --> 0:06:20.479 who's going about eighty five picks later than he is. 0:06:20.560 --> 0:06:24.719 So I understand some of the skepticism with say A Suzuki, 0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:26.000 but it feels like they're a little bit low in 0:06:26.040 --> 0:06:28.200 the batting average. The last couple of years he's been 0:06:28.200 --> 0:06:31.679 too eighty three to eighty five. I see some systems 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:33.320 in the two fifties. Even the bat has him a 0:06:33.320 --> 0:06:35.840 two fifty seven. We're focusing in on ATC at two 0:06:35.920 --> 0:06:39.160 sixty three. But it just seems a little bit too conservative. 0:06:39.200 --> 0:06:42.039 They're essentially saying he's gonna repeat what he did last year, 0:06:42.320 --> 0:06:44.200 and I guess that implies that he's going to miss 0:06:44.200 --> 0:06:45.800 some games as well, because he played one hundred and 0:06:45.839 --> 0:06:48.280 thirty two last year. Projections are for one hundred and 0:06:48.320 --> 0:06:50.960 twenty nine, but it feels a little bit light. I 0:06:51.000 --> 0:06:53.640 think that Suzuki can probably hit twenty five home run 0:06:54.080 --> 0:06:55.839 twenty five home runs if things break right with his 0:06:55.839 --> 0:06:59.040 barrel right hard hit rates very good. I like him 0:06:59.040 --> 0:07:00.320 a lot more than the projections do. 0:07:01.360 --> 0:07:04.479 Yeah. Look, I don't think he's got the ceiling, like 0:07:04.520 --> 0:07:06.400 I said of a Louis Robert or some other guys 0:07:06.400 --> 0:07:09.240 maybe in that same range, but the floor is so strong. 0:07:09.840 --> 0:07:11.760 I'm with you. I think the projections here are being 0:07:11.800 --> 0:07:13.400 a little too negative. I also like the fact that 0:07:13.440 --> 0:07:15.560 Kyle Tucker's in this lineup too, and I think whenever 0:07:15.600 --> 0:07:18.600 you're adding talent to a lineup, you have to take 0:07:18.640 --> 0:07:21.200 that into account. It has a ripple effect. It does 0:07:21.240 --> 0:07:23.760 trickle down. Jelly Boy wants to know how old Suzuki 0:07:23.840 --> 0:07:26.720 is watching us live on Twitch. Thanks jelly Boy. He 0:07:26.880 --> 0:07:30.000 is thirty, so not that old, so he is still 0:07:30.040 --> 0:07:33.480 right in his prime good ballpark factor. For the most part. 0:07:33.560 --> 0:07:37.280 We're talking about improved lineup this year too, if Matt 0:07:37.320 --> 0:07:40.440 Shaw comes along quickly. Let's talk about these two outfitlders 0:07:40.440 --> 0:07:42.640 again here just for perspective. So I'm gonna give you 0:07:42.720 --> 0:07:44.720 some names going in the same ADP you tell me, 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:47.840 despite the fact maybe the projections are being a little 0:07:48.080 --> 0:07:50.960 you know, bearish here. Who you would want to take so, 0:07:51.240 --> 0:07:53.040 Cheerio or Jaron Durant. 0:07:53.520 --> 0:07:56.040 I'm all in on Cheerio. For me. I would take Cheerio. 0:07:56.240 --> 0:07:59.480 It's not like a massive difference, but I love Cheerio 0:07:59.600 --> 0:07:59.960 this year. 0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:03.760 Jared Duran or Jazz Chisholm. 0:08:04.320 --> 0:08:06.160 That one's Duran for me. I think the profile is 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:08.080 a bit safer, especially with the batting average. 0:08:08.800 --> 0:08:12.600 I agree. Here's one two five months of Ronald Acunya 0:08:13.000 --> 0:08:15.440 or six theoretical months of Jared Duran. 0:08:17.000 --> 0:08:19.040 Oh, it's still searing. 0:08:19.200 --> 0:08:21.160 This is where the rubber meets the road here, because 0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:24.600 this is about what kind of manager you are in fantasy? 0:08:24.640 --> 0:08:27.120 Do you want to roll the dice with the greatness 0:08:27.120 --> 0:08:29.480 of Acunya. We've seen him come back from the acl 0:08:29.560 --> 0:08:32.160 tair before and come back and tear it up no 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:35.760 pun intended or every punt intended. But seriously, like that 0:08:35.920 --> 0:08:38.040 is a tough one for me because if you are 0:08:38.120 --> 0:08:40.600 the safety neck kind of owner, then you are somebody 0:08:40.800 --> 0:08:43.560 that wants to have Jared Duran most likely as opposed 0:08:43.600 --> 0:08:46.679 to you know, waiting for and God forbid there's a 0:08:46.720 --> 0:08:48.800 setback for Ronald Acunya. What do you think here between 0:08:48.840 --> 0:08:50.680 those two guys, what kind of manager are you? 0:08:50.800 --> 0:08:54.560 Joe So I am generally a little more play it safe, 0:08:54.559 --> 0:08:56.200 but I also play in a lot of deeper leagues. 0:08:56.280 --> 0:08:59.480 I'm mostly playing fifteen team mix leagues, and you need 0:08:59.520 --> 0:09:01.880 a little bit of a higher floor there. I think 0:09:01.880 --> 0:09:03.960 the average viewer is probably more likely to be playing 0:09:03.960 --> 0:09:05.360 in a ten or a twelve team league with the 0:09:05.360 --> 0:09:08.679 il spots, and in that case Acuna is probably the 0:09:08.720 --> 0:09:11.560 guy you should be taking a chance on. But I 0:09:11.600 --> 0:09:13.880 also think that Durant really brings a lot of safety 0:09:13.920 --> 0:09:15.520 at the top of the Red Sox lineup. That should 0:09:15.520 --> 0:09:17.640 be very good. It's a great ballpark to hit in. 0:09:18.040 --> 0:09:21.760 There aren't the injury concerns I can see going both ways. 0:09:21.800 --> 0:09:24.560 For me personally, it's probably Duran because I know the 0:09:24.559 --> 0:09:26.760 injuries are gonna find me throughout the season. I don't 0:09:26.760 --> 0:09:28.920 want to be stockpiling them before the year starts. If 0:09:28.920 --> 0:09:31.040 Acuna has any kind of setback, that wouldn't be good. 0:09:31.160 --> 0:09:33.440 And also, the last time he returned from the ACL problem, 0:09:33.960 --> 0:09:36.680 the power was kind of zapped from him for at 0:09:36.800 --> 0:09:39.400 least that first year when he returned, So I'm not 0:09:39.480 --> 0:09:41.320 exactly sure what kind of player we're gonna get. He's 0:09:41.320 --> 0:09:43.120 probably not going to run as much. You'd have to 0:09:43.120 --> 0:09:45.080 think that he's gonna take it easy a little bit 0:09:45.120 --> 0:09:45.920 after both of these. 0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:48.080 Is that the bill of goods we were sold last time? 0:09:48.080 --> 0:09:51.160 And then he ran a muck. Remember it was like, oh, 0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:53.160 you know, he's not probably not gonna run as much, 0:09:53.160 --> 0:09:54.760 and then he stole a million bases. But it was 0:09:54.800 --> 0:09:57.200 the power that actually lacked around a little bit. Ironically, 0:09:57.200 --> 0:09:59.080 I guess because of the timing more than anything, or 0:09:59.120 --> 0:10:01.240 maybe just the the power of the legs, you know, 0:10:01.280 --> 0:10:03.679 getting back under him. That to me was actually was 0:10:03.800 --> 0:10:06.760 so surprising, because I think what you're saying is correct. 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:08.840 Most people would have thought, oh, you know, the power 0:10:08.880 --> 0:10:11.080 will be there, but the stolen bases won't. And it 0:10:11.120 --> 0:10:13.440 was the inverse. Last time he came back from this injury. 0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:16.200 I just wonder now that it's been both legs that 0:10:16.280 --> 0:10:20.040 have now had an injury, a serious, significant injury, if 0:10:20.040 --> 0:10:22.520 he's now going to say, Okay, I can't run as much. 0:10:22.600 --> 0:10:24.960 And also, another thing about his running before is interesting. 0:10:25.000 --> 0:10:29.240 I believe it was before the rule changes. I believe, 0:10:29.960 --> 0:10:32.280 So that's another piece of variable we have to factor 0:10:32.320 --> 0:10:34.080 into the equation that when he came back from the 0:10:34.120 --> 0:10:36.680 first injury, I think that was before the stolen base 0:10:36.760 --> 0:10:38.360 rules had changed. So maybe we can factor in a 0:10:38.360 --> 0:10:40.439 few extra steals from him just from that alone, that 0:10:40.480 --> 0:10:42.400 it's a little bit easier than it was three years ago. 0:10:43.000 --> 0:10:46.200 But he is a nerve wracking pick in any league, 0:10:46.200 --> 0:10:48.079 whether it's a deep league, your shallow league, basket ball, 0:10:48.120 --> 0:10:50.439 whatever it is you're playing, you're taking on a lot 0:10:50.480 --> 0:10:52.480 of risk in the third round. I've seen some droughtser 0:10:52.480 --> 0:10:53.800 he starting to get pushed down to the fourth a 0:10:53.840 --> 0:10:55.960 little bit. That's where I kind of like it. But 0:10:56.000 --> 0:10:58.000 there's also some rumsorre He's in the second and I 0:10:58.000 --> 0:10:59.319 think at that point it's a little bit too much 0:10:59.320 --> 0:11:01.360 of a risk. That's where Jared Durant's going, and it's 0:11:01.400 --> 0:11:03.360 a second round price on both of them. Then I 0:11:03.360 --> 0:11:04.360 would have to go at Duran. 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:06.080 I think the more shallow of the league, the more 0:11:06.080 --> 0:11:08.920 I like Akunya. Uh, just easier to deal with. All right, 0:11:09.000 --> 0:11:10.719 let's go to Mike Wish's question here. I currently in 0:11:10.840 --> 0:11:13.160 drafting twelve in head to edd points league with two 0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:15.319 picks to go. If Gunn are still available to I 0:11:15.360 --> 0:11:18.120 grab him absolutely. I mean in a head ahead he 0:11:18.120 --> 0:11:20.440 should not still be there. So good luck with that 0:11:20.520 --> 0:11:23.199 draft there. Let's get to another player here, Jordan Westburg. Now, 0:11:23.240 --> 0:11:26.520 Westburg is a guy that last year eighteen homers, sixty three, 0:11:26.600 --> 0:11:30.120 ribby stole six bases, hit two sixty four. I don't 0:11:30.160 --> 0:11:31.880 want to say came out of nowhere, but he wasn't 0:11:31.880 --> 0:11:33.960 the guy that we were expecting to pop last year. 0:11:33.960 --> 0:11:35.760 We were looking for the Holidays and the curios dads, 0:11:35.800 --> 0:11:38.080 and Westburg is the one that we got that sort 0:11:38.080 --> 0:11:41.800 of broke out. Now, my concern with Westburg continues to be, 0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:44.280 what if Kobe Mayo hits the cover off the ball. 0:11:44.480 --> 0:11:48.760 What if, you know, Jackson Holiday, you know, finally lives 0:11:48.840 --> 0:11:51.280 up to the promise and him getting squeezed do the projection? 0:11:51.440 --> 0:11:55.640 So anything about that possibility of Westburg maybe losing out 0:11:55.679 --> 0:11:57.520 on a little bit of playing timer ret bats, or 0:11:57.559 --> 0:11:59.200 do you think Westburg is locked in no matter what, 0:11:59.240 --> 0:12:00.000 they're just gonna find us. 0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:04.560 I think Westburg is pretty locked in. I don't think 0:12:04.600 --> 0:12:06.160 that he is somebody that you'd have to worry about 0:12:06.160 --> 0:12:08.599 losing unless he's hitting his weight, then I think that 0:12:08.640 --> 0:12:11.559 he's probably pretty locked into the lineup. But the projections 0:12:11.600 --> 0:12:14.240 are a tad bit lower on him than I was 0:12:14.320 --> 0:12:18.079 maybe expecting, just based on ADP. He comes in as 0:12:18.120 --> 0:12:20.960 a ten dollars player in twelve team leagues. According to ATC, 0:12:21.320 --> 0:12:23.560 it's about the same value as Luisa Rise. I know 0:12:23.600 --> 0:12:25.880 it's a much different skill set overall, but if you're 0:12:25.880 --> 0:12:28.839 just looking at pure value, they're projected about the same. 0:12:29.120 --> 0:12:31.680 Marcus Semian is projected as a little bit more valuable, 0:12:31.880 --> 0:12:33.640 and he's going ten or twelve picks later in a 0:12:33.679 --> 0:12:35.959 lot of rooms. Luis Garcia, who's been our guy Joe 0:12:36.000 --> 0:12:39.080 all draft season, is projected within a dollar and he's 0:12:39.120 --> 0:12:41.600 going about forty picks later. So it's not that I 0:12:41.600 --> 0:12:43.839 don't like Westburg necessarily, It's just that I feel like 0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:46.360 I can kind of replicate his production down the board, 0:12:46.600 --> 0:12:48.480 and at the very least I can replicate the value 0:12:48.480 --> 0:12:49.760 that I'm getting out of that draft pick. 0:12:50.600 --> 0:12:52.440 Look a show that's about hate, and we're getting some 0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:55.719 love love. This format so far, flawless transition from the 0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:57.560 playing content to the mail bag and back. That's what 0:12:57.600 --> 0:12:59.880 we do here. It's not Fantasy pros by accident, Jelly, 0:12:59.880 --> 0:13:02.400 but we live this life, bro, This is what we 0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:05.600 do Westbrook. Just so you know, I like to look 0:13:05.640 --> 0:13:08.160 back at minor league track record a big everybody knows 0:13:08.160 --> 0:13:09.720 that about me, and I always like to come back 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:12.080 to double A numbers. And when you look at like 0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:14.480 twenty twenty two double A, you know, only forty seven games, 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:17.199 but he had two forty seven. There's a lower version 0:13:17.240 --> 0:13:20.800 of Jordan Westburg that does exist. And if you look 0:13:20.840 --> 0:13:24.319 at the minor league ups and downs, it's not impossible 0:13:24.360 --> 0:13:26.280 to think that the league makes adjustments to Westburg and 0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:28.319 he could struggle a little bit. So this is actually 0:13:28.360 --> 0:13:30.400 a guy that I'm fading in twenty twenty five in 0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:33.280 a big way. Now, one guy I'm not fading, and 0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:36.199 I think projections are too light on him is Mark 0:13:36.320 --> 0:13:38.480 Ventos of the New York Mets. And if you've been 0:13:38.520 --> 0:13:40.560 watching the shows for years, you know I'm the biggest 0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:43.560 self loathing Met fan there is. It's always dooming gloom. 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:45.440 It's always going to be the worst. I knew that 0:13:45.480 --> 0:13:46.880 they were not gonna get to the World Series or 0:13:46.880 --> 0:13:48.480 win the World Series. I was just trying my best 0:13:48.559 --> 0:13:51.440 last year to enjoy the ride, and I did. But 0:13:51.880 --> 0:13:57.960 the entos, to me, I don't understand how he There's 0:13:58.000 --> 0:13:59.960 no universe to me where he stays healthy for six 0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:02.720 months and does not drive in one hundred runs. It 0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:07.040 just doesn't exist with Lindor, with Lonso too in that 0:14:07.080 --> 0:14:09.400 lineup now getting on base ahead of him. I don't 0:14:09.400 --> 0:14:10.599 know if Peter A Lonzo is going to stick of 0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:12.000 that three hole. I gotta be honest with you. I 0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:13.960 think Vento's in that three hole would be much better 0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:16.280 hit Nimo four and Alonzo five. I think that's probably 0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:19.400 the best version of the Mets lineup personally. But Joe, 0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:22.280 when you're digging deep into ATC and some of the 0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:26.000 other projection aggregates, what do you see about Vento's. 0:14:26.560 --> 0:14:29.240 The batting average is kind of the big one at 0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:32.360 two forty two. Not that it would kill you necessarily, 0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:34.560 but it is a bit of a detriment, and I 0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:37.360 think it The big concern there is the swing and miss, 0:14:37.360 --> 0:14:39.640 Like he had a twenty nine percent strikeout rate last year, 0:14:39.720 --> 0:14:42.400 close to thirty twenty nine point seven, and then a 0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:45.840 sixteen percent swinging strike rate. He is a free swinger, 0:14:46.040 --> 0:14:48.040 and I think that's what worries some people. That might 0:14:48.080 --> 0:14:50.640 be what some of the modeling doesn't like. I agree 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:53.160 with you that the power is completely legit, Like a 0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:57.400 fourteen percent barrel is a crazy number. Forty seven on 0:14:57.440 --> 0:14:59.560 the hard hit is really really good. I think that 0:14:59.600 --> 0:15:02.600 some people and the systems specifically, are just a little 0:15:02.600 --> 0:15:04.600 bit worried about what the batting average floor could be. 0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:07.120 There are some systems that happen as a two thirty 0:15:07.200 --> 0:15:10.400 hitter when you're looking at just the straight dollar values 0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:13.560 compared to ADP. So he's the eighth third baseman by ADP, 0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:16.640 and he's eleventh in terms of the projected dollar value. 0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:19.800 You know, Alec Bohm is projected as a more valuable player. 0:15:19.880 --> 0:15:23.160 Jake Berger, Matt Chapman, Alex Bregman, these guys are all 0:15:23.160 --> 0:15:25.200 going a lot later. And I don't think Joe, you're 0:15:25.320 --> 0:15:27.000 you're not going to agree with a lot of those, 0:15:27.040 --> 0:15:29.200 probably because you are Vento's guy and I get that, 0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:31.560 but if you are trying to replicate some of that 0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:33.600 value later on, you can wait a few rounds and 0:15:33.640 --> 0:15:36.400 you could take I mean, any of these guys really 0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:39.200 that I mentioned, Bregman, Chapman, Berger, Bom and they're all 0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:41.640 projected as a slightly bit more valuable than Vento's at 0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:42.520 a much later cost. 0:15:43.400 --> 0:15:47.080 Yeah. Look, I get that. I don't think it's far off. 0:15:47.520 --> 0:15:49.320 I'm just going to stay on the counter argument here, 0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:51.760 which is he's a career two seventy seven hitter in 0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:54.480 the minor leagues. If he hits two sixty again, I'll 0:15:54.520 --> 0:15:56.400 take that to the bank. I think he's got thirty 0:15:56.440 --> 0:15:58.000 plus homer power. I think he's going to drive in 0:15:58.040 --> 0:15:59.760 a hundred. I think he could score one hundred two 0:15:59.760 --> 0:16:02.000 if the break right. For this Mets offense, and I 0:16:02.040 --> 0:16:05.000 know Mets fans with expectation, it's a very dangerous game 0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:07.120 to play. But this is why I think lineups are 0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:10.080 so important. We touched about this a little bit and 0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:12.320 one of the last discussions we had with Suzuki. When 0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:14.720 you add onon soda to a lineup, it changes everything. 0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:17.040 And if you are going to hit him in the 0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:19.080 three hole, which again I think is a smart thing 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:20.880 to do. Whether or not that's going to be out 0:16:20.920 --> 0:16:23.960 of the gate, we'll find out. But over time, I 0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:26.280 think it would be much wiser to flip flop those guys. 0:16:26.320 --> 0:16:28.640 Stick Nimo in the four spot. And if you do that, 0:16:29.440 --> 0:16:31.880 Fientos is going to be in a tremendous position where 0:16:31.880 --> 0:16:33.920 he's going to see a ton of fastballs this year. 0:16:34.040 --> 0:16:36.080 So where he hits in the lineup matter, is hitting 0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:38.280 the five spot. I think maybe some of these concerns 0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:40.600 come to fruition if he ends up hitting in the 0:16:40.600 --> 0:16:43.200 three spot more often than not, I think he takes 0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:45.160 off like a rocket ship. Let's get to some more 0:16:45.240 --> 0:16:48.080 questions here too, because we've got some newbies here, which 0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:51.440 we love. Black Raptors here. I'm new to Fantasy baseball, 0:16:51.440 --> 0:16:54.240 will welcome aboard. I've been watching you guys for the videos. 0:16:54.400 --> 0:16:57.400 And if I am later in the first round, would 0:16:57.400 --> 0:16:59.640 you go Schemes then Scooba or would you guys rather 0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:03.000 go and then look for a lind'or so that you 0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:05.520 can get Zach Wheeler, Gilbert Crochet, et cetera, et cetera, 0:17:05.720 --> 0:17:08.080 Or would you wait on a pitcher? Now it depends 0:17:08.080 --> 0:17:10.720 on the format you're playing in blackraptor It depends. If 0:17:10.760 --> 0:17:15.119 you are looking at, say head to head points leagues 0:17:15.160 --> 0:17:19.399 where strikeouts are big money stuff and big points for wins, 0:17:19.600 --> 0:17:21.720 then I'm looking for big time pitchers, and then I 0:17:21.760 --> 0:17:23.879 would want one of those aces at the bottom for sure. 0:17:24.440 --> 0:17:26.040 I would still lean towards School. I think he's a 0:17:26.040 --> 0:17:30.000 little safer as much as Skeins as really interesting. If 0:17:30.040 --> 0:17:32.520 it's season long roto, I've been somebody, You've seen it 0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:34.400 in the drafts. I tend to wait, and it's head 0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:36.000 to head, so there you go, so we see that. 0:17:36.040 --> 0:17:37.560 So even if it's head to head points or head 0:17:37.560 --> 0:17:39.960 to head categories, I'm a little more apt to go 0:17:40.160 --> 0:17:43.680 with a pitcher earlier. But I'm also okay with taking 0:17:43.720 --> 0:17:45.719