Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros m LB. This is
Speaker 1: the Fantasy Baseball Podcast as Me, Joey P Joe Pisapia
Speaker 1: with me today. My best friend Joe Alrico Welsh is
Speaker 1: still recovering from his illness, but Joe, Rico and I
Speaker 1: are here on our Twitch live. You can also watch
Speaker 1: on YouTube on demand of course, but we're gonna be
Speaker 1: doing a lot of stuff here on Twitch live, so
Speaker 1: make sure you go to twitch dot tv slash Fantasy
Speaker 1: Pros and you subscribe today so you could be a
Speaker 1: part of all the live mannas because that's where Leading
Speaker 1: Off is gonna be live to start the season. We're
Speaker 1: gonna be live on YouTube two on Wednesday afternoons taking
Speaker 1: your question. So don't worry, we're not leaving there. Everything
Speaker 1: is gonna be great. And today we're gonna talk about hate.
Speaker 1: Why because you know the Internet sometimes, Joe, it's such
Speaker 1: a loving, nurturing, tender place, so we thought we'd kind
Speaker 1: of changed it up from what the Internet is normally,
Speaker 1: especially social media and things like that. Instead we talk
Speaker 1: about some players, not that we hate, but the projections hate.
Speaker 1: So let's talk about this because you and Welsh did
Speaker 1: a show recently about the players projections love obviously people
Speaker 1: who might have some big breakout seasons. But we're going
Speaker 1: to flip the script today, So Joe, take us behind
Speaker 1: the mindset of this program today that you and I
Speaker 1: are going to run through with these players.
Speaker 2: Well, first, I hope the people are going to be
Speaker 2: all right dealing with some hate on the internet. I
Speaker 2: know this is such an anomaly, but we're going to
Speaker 2: try and get through it. So what I've done today,
Speaker 2: what we're going to do today is take a look
Speaker 2: at ten players that projections. We're using the word hate,
Speaker 2: but projections are lower on than the consensus, especially in
Speaker 2: terms of ADP. So what I've done is I'm putting
Speaker 2: the ATC projections into an auction calculator and the way
Speaker 2: that it works on fan graphs is that it'll show
Speaker 2: you ADP as well. So I'm picking out some players
Speaker 2: where the ADP is a lot lower than the projected
Speaker 2: auction value, and you're going to see once we get
Speaker 2: into it. I'll give you some comparisons in terms of
Speaker 2: guys who are close in terms of dollar range, very
Speaker 2: different than what you're seeing in terms of ADP. So
Speaker 2: if you are a projections. Person These are essentially the
Speaker 2: players you should be fading heading into twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1: And for those of you who always complain, hey, there's
Speaker 1: not enough salary cap information stuff on the site, we'll
Speaker 1: here you go, here you go. We're talking about it
Speaker 1: right now. Some players you might want to think twice about,
Speaker 1: at least overbidding for maybe you want to pay cost,
Speaker 1: maybe slightly less, but overbidding. Maybe you should think twice
Speaker 1: about it. One thing you should not think twice about
Speaker 1: is joining us Wednesday for Fantasy Fest, because that is
Speaker 1: going down this coming Wednesday. I can't believe it's gonna
Speaker 1: be here three pm Eastern on our YouTube channel, Fantasy
Speaker 1: Bros MLB. Subscribe today. We're trying to get to twenty
Speaker 1: five thousand before opening day. We can do it. It's
Speaker 1: a four hour live stream pack with bus breakouts, bowld predictions,
Speaker 1: and we're gonna help you crush all of your competition,
Speaker 1: embarrass your friends and relatives. That's what we're here to do.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be Me Mayor Welsh, the Worm, all the
Speaker 1: fun people, Joe Rico, and some special guests too, Chris Towers,
Speaker 1: Frank Stanfel from CBS Eric Cross, the Prospect Guru himself,
Speaker 1: Scott Pianowski, and many more. So tune in Live pros
Speaker 1: MLB YouTube channel three pm Eastern ring the belt that
Speaker 1: goes dang for notifications so you don't miss it, and
Speaker 1: of course if you do, if you have to work
Speaker 1: for a living, it'll still live on our YouTube channel.
Speaker 1: But we'd love for you to join us for four
Speaker 1: hours of wall to wall baseball. All right, let's start
Speaker 1: here with the first player on our list, Joe Alrico.
Speaker 1: Let's start with Jared Duran. Last year, Jared Duran was
Speaker 1: the darling of this program, especially me. I hype that
Speaker 1: guy so much, and even with my lofty expectations, Jared
Speaker 1: durand delivered. Scored over one hundred and ten runs, hit
Speaker 1: twenty homers, stole thirty plus bases, hit to eighty five.
Speaker 1: Yet something's telling you the projections might not be as
Speaker 1: kind to him in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: Yeah, last year I was very interested in him as well.
Speaker 2: The price was still kind of deflated. It's not deflated
Speaker 2: this year. He's a second round pick in most rooms
Speaker 2: if you're looking at the ATC projections and it's a
Speaker 2: twelve team auction calculator that I'm using, Jared Duran comes
Speaker 2: out as the thirty first overall hitter, not even including pitchers,
Speaker 2: thirty first overall hitter, behind Manny Machado, behind Jazz Chisholm,
Speaker 2: behind Katel Marte, Raphael Devers, a lot of players that
Speaker 2: are going a lot later in draft rooms than he is.
Speaker 2: I think part of it is that they're calling for
Speaker 2: some regression in terms of the batting average. ATC hasn't
Speaker 2: projected at two sixty eight when he hit two eighty
Speaker 2: five last year. They're also calling for three fewer homers,
Speaker 2: a drop by twenty runs, six fewer ribbies, and four
Speaker 2: fewer stolen bases. So really, across the board, ATC is
Speaker 2: calling for a bit of regression. With Jaron Duran, I'm
Speaker 2: really not one hundred percent sure what to make of it.
Speaker 2: I think that the projections are probably pretty fair, but
Speaker 2: he could also surpass them, especially in terms of batting average.
Speaker 2: He's hit two eighty five and two ninety five the
Speaker 2: last two seasons. I'm not sure why they would expect
Speaker 2: him to come down to the two sixties, but ATC
Speaker 2: is throwing some cold water on the Jared Duran love
Speaker 2: for sure.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, I'm still very much in on Jared Duran.
Speaker 1: The ADP is definitely steep, but at the same time
Speaker 1: I'm looking around the other outfielder as that he's going
Speaker 1: near Jackson Curio. Jaron Duran, I think are very close.
Speaker 1: I think there's some value if you go like a
Speaker 1: round or so later, or you know, a couple dollars
Speaker 1: later on guys like maybe the upside of Ono Cruz
Speaker 1: or why at Langford. So I get that, but I
Speaker 1: understand what you're saying. I'm not off Jaron Duran, but
Speaker 1: I don't want to overpay for him either. Let's go
Speaker 1: to another outfielder. This one's in Chicago, says Azuki. Now,
Speaker 1: this is another guy that I think still ironically is undervalued.
Speaker 1: He is the eighty six player going off the board
Speaker 1: in the consensus ADP, which you can find, by the way,
Speaker 1: at fantasypros dot com. He's the twenty sixth outfielder off
Speaker 1: the board, but he's still going ahead of guys like
Speaker 1: Luis Robert, which I do have a problem with because
Speaker 1: Robert's a guy that has shown you thirty twenty kind
Speaker 1: of a season. Say it's Azuki, I think is still
Speaker 1: more of a twenty fifteen guy, but he does give
Speaker 1: you batting average. What are you seeing in sayas Azuki's
Speaker 1: projections that have you a little concerned.
Speaker 2: So I'm personally a very big fan of Saya Suzuki.
Speaker 2: I think that he is a well rounded contributor. He
Speaker 2: can give you five category production. I think the Cubs
Speaker 2: lineup is sneaky very good this year, but if you
Speaker 2: are looking at the ATC projections, he comes in as
Speaker 2: the twenty eighth outfielder, behind Ian Hap, behind Taylor Ward,
Speaker 2: behind a lot of guys who are going well outside
Speaker 2: of the top one hundred picks, and say Suzuki is
Speaker 2: going right around pick eighty five. For another piece of context,
Speaker 2: he's projected is essentially the same value as Nick Castillanos,
Speaker 2: who's going about eighty five picks later than he is.
Speaker 2: So I understand some of the skepticism with say A Suzuki,
Speaker 2: but it feels like they're a little bit low in
Speaker 2: the batting average. The last couple of years he's been
Speaker 2: too eighty three to eighty five. I see some systems
Speaker 2: in the two fifties. Even the bat has him a
Speaker 2: two fifty seven. We're focusing in on ATC at two
Speaker 2: sixty three. But it just seems a little bit too conservative.
Speaker 2: They're essentially saying he's gonna repeat what he did last year,
Speaker 2: and I guess that implies that he's going to miss
Speaker 2: some games as well, because he played one hundred and
Speaker 2: thirty two last year. Projections are for one hundred and
Speaker 2: twenty nine, but it feels a little bit light. I
Speaker 2: think that Suzuki can probably hit twenty five home run
Speaker 2: twenty five home runs if things break right with his
Speaker 2: barrel right hard hit rates very good. I like him
Speaker 2: a lot more than the projections do.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, I don't think he's got the ceiling, like
Speaker 1: I said of a Louis Robert or some other guys
Speaker 1: maybe in that same range, but the floor is so strong.
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I think the projections here are being
Speaker 1: a little too negative. I also like the fact that
Speaker 1: Kyle Tucker's in this lineup too, and I think whenever
Speaker 1: you're adding talent to a lineup, you have to take
Speaker 1: that into account. It has a ripple effect. It does
Speaker 1: trickle down. Jelly Boy wants to know how old Suzuki
Speaker 1: is watching us live on Twitch. Thanks jelly Boy. He
Speaker 1: is thirty, so not that old, so he is still
Speaker 1: right in his prime good ballpark factor. For the most part.
Speaker 1: We're talking about improved lineup this year too, if Matt
Speaker 1: Shaw comes along quickly. Let's talk about these two outfitlders
Speaker 1: again here just for perspective. So I'm gonna give you
Speaker 1: some names going in the same ADP you tell me,
Speaker 1: despite the fact maybe the projections are being a little
Speaker 1: you know, bearish here. Who you would want to take so,
Speaker 1: Cheerio or Jaron Durant.
Speaker 2: I'm all in on Cheerio. For me. I would take Cheerio.
Speaker 2: It's not like a massive difference, but I love Cheerio
Speaker 2: this year.
Speaker 1: Jared Duran or Jazz Chisholm.
Speaker 2: That one's Duran for me. I think the profile is
Speaker 2: a bit safer, especially with the batting average.
Speaker 1: I agree. Here's one two five months of Ronald Acunya
Speaker 1: or six theoretical months of Jared Duran.
Speaker 2: Oh, it's still searing.
Speaker 1: This is where the rubber meets the road here, because
Speaker 1: this is about what kind of manager you are in fantasy?
Speaker 1: Do you want to roll the dice with the greatness
Speaker 1: of Acunya. We've seen him come back from the acl
Speaker 1: tair before and come back and tear it up no
Speaker 1: pun intended or every punt intended. But seriously, like that
Speaker 1: is a tough one for me because if you are
Speaker 1: the safety neck kind of owner, then you are somebody
Speaker 1: that wants to have Jared Duran most likely as opposed
Speaker 1: to you know, waiting for and God forbid there's a
Speaker 1: setback for Ronald Acunya. What do you think here between
Speaker 1: those two guys, what kind of manager are you?
Speaker 2: Joe So I am generally a little more play it safe,
Speaker 2: but I also play in a lot of deeper leagues.
Speaker 2: I'm mostly playing fifteen team mix leagues, and you need
Speaker 2: a little bit of a higher floor there. I think
Speaker 2: the average viewer is probably more likely to be playing
Speaker 2: in a ten or a twelve team league with the
Speaker 2: il spots, and in that case Acuna is probably the
Speaker 2: guy you should be taking a chance on. But I
Speaker 2: also think that Durant really brings a lot of safety
Speaker 2: at the top of the Red Sox lineup. That should
Speaker 2: be very good. It's a great ballpark to hit in.
Speaker 2: There aren't the injury concerns I can see going both ways.
Speaker 2: For me personally, it's probably Duran because I know the
Speaker 2: injuries are gonna find me throughout the season. I don't
Speaker 2: want to be stockpiling them before the year starts. If
Speaker 2: Acuna has any kind of setback, that wouldn't be good.
Speaker 2: And also, the last time he returned from the ACL problem,
Speaker 2: the power was kind of zapped from him for at
Speaker 2: least that first year when he returned, So I'm not
Speaker 2: exactly sure what kind of player we're gonna get. He's
Speaker 2: probably not going to run as much. You'd have to
Speaker 2: think that he's gonna take it easy a little bit
Speaker 2: after both of these.
Speaker 1: Is that the bill of goods we were sold last time?
Speaker 1: And then he ran a muck. Remember it was like, oh,
Speaker 1: you know, he's not probably not gonna run as much,
Speaker 1: and then he stole a million bases. But it was
Speaker 1: the power that actually lacked around a little bit. Ironically,
Speaker 1: I guess because of the timing more than anything, or
Speaker 1: maybe just the the power of the legs, you know,
Speaker 1: getting back under him. That to me was actually was
Speaker 1: so surprising, because I think what you're saying is correct.
Speaker 1: Most people would have thought, oh, you know, the power
Speaker 1: will be there, but the stolen bases won't. And it
Speaker 1: was the inverse. Last time he came back from this injury.
Speaker 2: I just wonder now that it's been both legs that
Speaker 2: have now had an injury, a serious, significant injury, if
Speaker 2: he's now going to say, Okay, I can't run as much.
Speaker 2: And also, another thing about his running before is interesting.
Speaker 2: I believe it was before the rule changes. I believe,
Speaker 2: So that's another piece of variable we have to factor
Speaker 2: into the equation that when he came back from the
Speaker 2: first injury, I think that was before the stolen base
Speaker 2: rules had changed. So maybe we can factor in a
Speaker 2: few extra steals from him just from that alone, that
Speaker 2: it's a little bit easier than it was three years ago.
Speaker 2: But he is a nerve wracking pick in any league,
Speaker 2: whether it's a deep league, your shallow league, basket ball,
Speaker 2: whatever it is you're playing, you're taking on a lot
Speaker 2: of risk in the third round. I've seen some droughtser
Speaker 2: he starting to get pushed down to the fourth a
Speaker 2: little bit. That's where I kind of like it. But
Speaker 2: there's also some rumsorre He's in the second and I
Speaker 2: think at that point it's a little bit too much
Speaker 2: of a risk. That's where Jared Durant's going, and it's
Speaker 2: a second round price on both of them. Then I
Speaker 2: would have to go at Duran.
Speaker 1: I think the more shallow of the league, the more
Speaker 1: I like Akunya. Uh, just easier to deal with. All right,
Speaker 1: let's go to Mike Wish's question here. I currently in
Speaker 1: drafting twelve in head to edd points league with two
Speaker 1: picks to go. If Gunn are still available to I
Speaker 1: grab him absolutely. I mean in a head ahead he
Speaker 1: should not still be there. So good luck with that
Speaker 1: draft there. Let's get to another player here, Jordan Westburg. Now,
Speaker 1: Westburg is a guy that last year eighteen homers, sixty three,
Speaker 1: ribby stole six bases, hit two sixty four. I don't
Speaker 1: want to say came out of nowhere, but he wasn't
Speaker 1: the guy that we were expecting to pop last year.
Speaker 1: We were looking for the Holidays and the curios dads,
Speaker 1: and Westburg is the one that we got that sort
Speaker 1: of broke out. Now, my concern with Westburg continues to be,
Speaker 1: what if Kobe Mayo hits the cover off the ball.
Speaker 1: What if, you know, Jackson Holiday, you know, finally lives
Speaker 1: up to the promise and him getting squeezed do the projection?
Speaker 1: So anything about that possibility of Westburg maybe losing out
Speaker 1: on a little bit of playing timer ret bats, or
Speaker 1: do you think Westburg is locked in no matter what,
Speaker 1: they're just gonna find us.
Speaker 2: I think Westburg is pretty locked in. I don't think
Speaker 2: that he is somebody that you'd have to worry about
Speaker 2: losing unless he's hitting his weight, then I think that
Speaker 2: he's probably pretty locked into the lineup. But the projections
Speaker 2: are a tad bit lower on him than I was
Speaker 2: maybe expecting, just based on ADP. He comes in as
Speaker 2: a ten dollars player in twelve team leagues. According to ATC,
Speaker 2: it's about the same value as Luisa Rise. I know
Speaker 2: it's a much different skill set overall, but if you're
Speaker 2: just looking at pure value, they're projected about the same.
Speaker 2: Marcus Semian is projected as a little bit more valuable,
Speaker 2: and he's going ten or twelve picks later in a
Speaker 2: lot of rooms. Luis Garcia, who's been our guy Joe
Speaker 2: all draft season, is projected within a dollar and he's
Speaker 2: going about forty picks later. So it's not that I
Speaker 2: don't like Westburg necessarily, It's just that I feel like
Speaker 2: I can kind of replicate his production down the board,
Speaker 2: and at the very least I can replicate the value
Speaker 2: that I'm getting out of that draft pick.
Speaker 1: Look a show that's about hate, and we're getting some
Speaker 1: love love. This format so far, flawless transition from the
Speaker 1: playing content to the mail bag and back. That's what
Speaker 1: we do here. It's not Fantasy pros by accident, Jelly,
Speaker 1: but we live this life, bro, This is what we
Speaker 1: do Westbrook. Just so you know, I like to look
Speaker 1: back at minor league track record a big everybody knows
Speaker 1: that about me, and I always like to come back
Speaker 1: to double A numbers. And when you look at like
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two double A, you know, only forty seven games,
Speaker 1: but he had two forty seven. There's a lower version
Speaker 1: of Jordan Westburg that does exist. And if you look
Speaker 1: at the minor league ups and downs, it's not impossible
Speaker 1: to think that the league makes adjustments to Westburg and
Speaker 1: he could struggle a little bit. So this is actually
Speaker 1: a guy that I'm fading in twenty twenty five in
Speaker 1: a big way. Now, one guy I'm not fading, and
Speaker 1: I think projections are too light on him is Mark
Speaker 1: Ventos of the New York Mets. And if you've been
Speaker 1: watching the shows for years, you know I'm the biggest
Speaker 1: self loathing Met fan there is. It's always dooming gloom.
Speaker 1: It's always going to be the worst. I knew that
Speaker 1: they were not gonna get to the World Series or
Speaker 1: win the World Series. I was just trying my best
Speaker 1: last year to enjoy the ride, and I did. But
Speaker 1: the entos, to me, I don't understand how he There's
Speaker 1: no universe to me where he stays healthy for six
Speaker 1: months and does not drive in one hundred runs. It
Speaker 1: just doesn't exist with Lindor, with Lonso too in that
Speaker 1: lineup now getting on base ahead of him. I don't
Speaker 1: know if Peter A Lonzo is going to stick of
Speaker 1: that three hole. I gotta be honest with you. I
Speaker 1: think Vento's in that three hole would be much better
Speaker 1: hit Nimo four and Alonzo five. I think that's probably
Speaker 1: the best version of the Mets lineup personally. But Joe,
Speaker 1: when you're digging deep into ATC and some of the
Speaker 1: other projection aggregates, what do you see about Vento's.
Speaker 2: The batting average is kind of the big one at
Speaker 2: two forty two. Not that it would kill you necessarily,
Speaker 2: but it is a bit of a detriment, and I
Speaker 2: think it The big concern there is the swing and miss,
Speaker 2: Like he had a twenty nine percent strikeout rate last year,
Speaker 2: close to thirty twenty nine point seven, and then a
Speaker 2: sixteen percent swinging strike rate. He is a free swinger,
Speaker 2: and I think that's what worries some people. That might
Speaker 2: be what some of the modeling doesn't like. I agree
Speaker 2: with you that the power is completely legit, Like a
Speaker 2: fourteen percent barrel is a crazy number. Forty seven on
Speaker 2: the hard hit is really really good. I think that
Speaker 2: some people and the systems specifically, are just a little
Speaker 2: bit worried about what the batting average floor could be.
Speaker 2: There are some systems that happen as a two thirty
Speaker 2: hitter when you're looking at just the straight dollar values
Speaker 2: compared to ADP. So he's the eighth third baseman by ADP,
Speaker 2: and he's eleventh in terms of the projected dollar value.
Speaker 2: You know, Alec Bohm is projected as a more valuable player.
Speaker 2: Jake Berger, Matt Chapman, Alex Bregman, these guys are all
Speaker 2: going a lot later. And I don't think Joe, you're
Speaker 2: you're not going to agree with a lot of those,
Speaker 2: probably because you are Vento's guy and I get that,
Speaker 2: but if you are trying to replicate some of that
Speaker 2: value later on, you can wait a few rounds and
Speaker 2: you could take I mean, any of these guys really
Speaker 2: that I mentioned, Bregman, Chapman, Berger, Bom and they're all
Speaker 2: projected as a slightly bit more valuable than Vento's at
Speaker 2: a much later cost.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, I get that. I don't think it's far off.
Speaker 1: I'm just going to stay on the counter argument here,
Speaker 1: which is he's a career two seventy seven hitter in
Speaker 1: the minor leagues. If he hits two sixty again, I'll
Speaker 1: take that to the bank. I think he's got thirty
Speaker 1: plus homer power. I think he's going to drive in
Speaker 1: a hundred. I think he could score one hundred two
Speaker 1: if the break right. For this Mets offense, and I
Speaker 1: know Mets fans with expectation, it's a very dangerous game
Speaker 1: to play. But this is why I think lineups are
Speaker 1: so important. We touched about this a little bit and
Speaker 1: one of the last discussions we had with Suzuki. When
Speaker 1: you add onon soda to a lineup, it changes everything.
Speaker 1: And if you are going to hit him in the
Speaker 1: three hole, which again I think is a smart thing
Speaker 1: to do. Whether or not that's going to be out
Speaker 1: of the gate, we'll find out. But over time, I
Speaker 1: think it would be much wiser to flip flop those guys.
Speaker 1: Stick Nimo in the four spot. And if you do that,
Speaker 1: Fientos is going to be in a tremendous position where
Speaker 1: he's going to see a ton of fastballs this year.
Speaker 1: So where he hits in the lineup matter, is hitting
Speaker 1: the five spot. I think maybe some of these concerns
Speaker 1: come to fruition if he ends up hitting in the
Speaker 1: three spot more often than not, I think he takes
Speaker 1: off like a rocket ship. Let's get to some more
Speaker 1: questions here too, because we've got some newbies here, which
Speaker 1: we love. Black Raptors here. I'm new to Fantasy baseball,
Speaker 1: will welcome aboard. I've been watching you guys for the videos.
Speaker 1: And if I am later in the first round, would
Speaker 1: you go Schemes then Scooba or would you guys rather
Speaker 1: go and then look for a lind'or so that you
Speaker 1: can get Zach Wheeler, Gilbert Crochet, et cetera, et cetera,
Speaker 1: Or would you wait on a pitcher? Now it depends
Speaker 1: on the format you're playing in blackraptor It depends. If
Speaker 1: you are looking at, say head to head points leagues
Speaker 1: where strikeouts are big money stuff and big points for wins,
Speaker 1: then I'm looking for big time pitchers, and then I
Speaker 1: would want one of those aces at the bottom for sure.
Speaker 1: I would still lean towards School. I think he's a
Speaker 1: little safer as much as Skeins as really interesting. If
Speaker 1: it's season long roto, I've been somebody, You've seen it
Speaker 1: in the drafts. I tend to wait, and it's head
Speaker 1: to head, so there you go, so we see that.
Speaker 1: So even if it's head to head points or head
Speaker 1: to head categories, I'm a little more apt to go
Speaker 1: with a pitcher earlier. But I'm also okay with taking
Speaker 1: those two big hitters at the turn there and then
Speaker 1: coming around and settling for a Blake Snell to be
Speaker 1: my rotation head. I think the value there is still
Speaker 1: really good with some of the guys you're getting in
Speaker 1: the third or fourth round. The problem is if you
Speaker 1: miss those guys in the top fifteen hitters, it's really
Speaker 1: tough to make up ground. So I don't like it
Speaker 1: in most roto formats, even head to head ones. Joe
Speaker 1: what are your thoughts on what Black Raptors trying to
Speaker 1: figure out this year.
Speaker 2: I think at the end of the first I understand
Speaker 2: the temptation to go with one of the other or
Speaker 2: help maybe even double down and go pocket aces if
Speaker 2: you're feeling adventurous. I can understand that there's some temptation there,
Speaker 2: But for me personally. You mentioned it, Joe, like, there
Speaker 2: are so many solid bats in the first round, specifically
Speaker 2: at the end of the first beginning of the second, Like,
Speaker 2: I think there's seventeen, eighteen, nineteen first round worthy hitters
Speaker 2: this year, And so if you're able to get a
Speaker 2: Vlad in Lindor Combo at the end of the first
Speaker 2: or Vlad and Carol or your Nlvarez and Mookie bats, Like,
Speaker 2: if you can get two of those lockdown hitters, that's
Speaker 2: generally the way I like to go about it. And
Speaker 2: then you've alluded to some of these pitchers that are
Speaker 2: still going to be on the board a little bit
Speaker 2: later on Logan, Gilbert, Garrett Crochet, Zach Wheeler. Those guys,
Speaker 2: especially in a twelve team league, could still be sitting
Speaker 2: there in the third Wheeler maybe not Gilbert and Crochet
Speaker 2: almost certainly will be sitting there in the third round,
Speaker 2: and I think the crochet talking about his value compared
Speaker 2: to Schemes and Scooble, it's about the same for me.
Speaker 2: There's not a huge gap there really. So if you
Speaker 2: can still take an elite star ace level pitcher while
Speaker 2: locking down two of those cornerstone hitters in your lineup,
Speaker 2: that's the way I generally like to go about it.
Speaker 1: Look, I think you take the two big hitters and
Speaker 1: come back around and get a Pablo Lopez and a Snell,
Speaker 1: or you know, maybe a Dylan CS and a Snell.
Speaker 1: You know, if things really break right for you, And
Speaker 1: to me, that is I think the better balance of
Speaker 1: a roster. It's a great question, and this is the book.
Speaker 1: We're here for the ogs, we're here for the newbies,
Speaker 1: we're here for everybody. Let's take another question here since
Speaker 1: we're on questions, and we'll get back to some of
Speaker 1: the players projections hate. This is from Bova Knight front
Speaker 1: of the show. Hey, guys in the Dynasty, startup slow
Speaker 1: draft right now. Ten teams with custom scoring that favors offense.
Speaker 1: I think, oh and power, I'm thinking offense right That's
Speaker 1: where we're got Okay, I have started with Churio and Acunya. Man,
Speaker 1: that is a pretty fantastic dynasty even for ten teams. Star,
Speaker 1: Can you give me a guy that you're reaching for
Speaker 1: in general in this sort of format, giving it's a
Speaker 1: dynasty startup? Well, I like what you're doing here, Mova,
Speaker 1: which is you are focusing on offense first and building
Speaker 1: building a dynasty team around young position players, because that,
Speaker 1: to me, is what you want to do. Pitching can
Speaker 1: be very volatile. Pitching also turns over faster than anything else,
Speaker 1: so that is I think important. Where would you go next?
Speaker 1: You want to try to reach for a guy like
Speaker 1: Crochet based on his age and now that he's with
Speaker 1: the Boston Red Sox, are you still going to pound
Speaker 1: the hitting table a little bit more as or somebody
Speaker 1: you're reaching for Joe in dynasty round? That fourth round?
Speaker 1: Is it a junior Caminero, let's say, or something like that.
Speaker 2: You definitely could. You can continue to fill out the offense,
Speaker 2: and I think that's probably the wise thing to do
Speaker 2: in the ten team league. The pitchers, You're still going
Speaker 2: to have such great pitchers available in the sixties, seventies
Speaker 2: and eighties, and you can take six hitters to start
Speaker 2: your draft off. But I also don't really hate going
Speaker 2: after one of those lockdown aces that are still in
Speaker 2: their twenties, like Garrett Crochet. This channel me. While so
Speaker 2: all of us have loved Garrett Crochet throughout the draft season,
Speaker 2: I wouldn't mind going with him there. He's still so young,
Speaker 2: He's in a great spot in Boston. The ballpark isn't
Speaker 2: my favorite thing, but his talent is just brilliant. Like
Speaker 2: Garrett Crochet. There's a world where Garrett Crochet is the
Speaker 2: number one pitcher this season in all of baseball, and
Speaker 2: win was a cy young. I wouldn't even be a
Speaker 2: little bit surprised by it. So if you're taking him
Speaker 2: in the fourth round and then you're backfilling some of
Speaker 2: the bats later as well. I get the pitching is
Speaker 2: more volatile in Dynasty, but you have such an elite
Speaker 2: base of five category guys with which Cherio Nakunya, I
Speaker 2: wouldn't mind if you want to pivot off and start
Speaker 2: going to some pitching now as well.
Speaker 1: We've seen some pitchers have some success in Family Park.
Speaker 1: Pedro Martinez was pretty good, Roger Clement's pretty good. It
Speaker 1: can be done. Folks. It can be done. And Crochet
Speaker 1: looks like quite the strikeout artist, dropping what he had
Speaker 1: six k's the other day in three nings or seven
Speaker 1: I think it was yes, in the spring trade. It's
Speaker 1: only spring trading. But you know, I think the best
Speaker 1: giveaway this year, Joe would be a crocheted Garrett Crochet.
Speaker 1: I would like to give that away.
Speaker 2: A crochet we got away jersey.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, not even just the jersey, like a
Speaker 1: little like you know, like how we have Little Derek.
Speaker 1: You like Little Derek Brown, like a little stuffed animal,
Speaker 1: like this kind of thing. I like when Little Derek
Speaker 1: makes appearances on the Baseball Show. It's fun, all right,
Speaker 1: Let's get to the next player on a list. And
Speaker 1: it also brings us to our Microsoft Chasing Challenger segment,
Speaker 1: which is brought to you by Microsoft. Just like the
Speaker 1: athletes who push boundaries and redefine what's possible in business,
Speaker 1: those decision makers today are turning challenges into opportunities, and
Speaker 1: Microsoft meets you where you are with tools and guidance
Speaker 1: to help make you the impactful person using safe, secure
Speaker 1: AI solutions or whatever challenges you're facing. Microsoft empowers you
Speaker 1: with the expertise to say bring it on, and in
Speaker 1: this segment, we're gonna spotlight Anthony Volpe, who is a
Speaker 1: can't miss, quote unquote prospect who's frankly been missing a
Speaker 1: lot of balls lately in the first two years of
Speaker 1: his major league career. It's a pivotal year, I think
Speaker 1: for Anthony Volpe, because we're constantly in win now mode.
Speaker 1: If we're the New York Yankees, and let's be honest,
Speaker 1: Volpi so far has not produced. I think up to
Speaker 1: what the expectations were. I think that is always a
Speaker 1: expectations are high. It's New York. Prospects sometimes get overrated.
Speaker 1: Now I've seen Volpe play in person a bunch. He's
Speaker 1: a very good player. I think he was rushed a
Speaker 1: little bit to the big leagues, to be honest, and
Speaker 1: I think he continues to press there. But if he
Speaker 1: doesn't produce this year, I would not be shocked if
Speaker 1: the Yankees start looking for a little competition and maybe
Speaker 1: somebody else to fill that role at shortstop. And Volpi
Speaker 1: has power, he's got speed, He's a solid defender, but
Speaker 1: too much swing and miss. That's been his problem. Spot
Speaker 1: in the batting orders a problem too. He's always hitting
Speaker 1: lower in the lineup, that's not great. He's a good defender.
Speaker 1: Too much swing a miss. That's the big challenge heading
Speaker 1: into twenty twenty five. Hopefully what Anthony Volpey can do
Speaker 1: is go back to some of the minor league tape
Speaker 1: and see what are the things that was doing there
Speaker 1: that gave me success, that made me a better contact
Speaker 1: hitter that I'm not doing at this major league level.
Speaker 1: Is he trying to hit too many home runs? Is
Speaker 1: he trying to press a little bit too much? But
Speaker 1: Anthony volpe I think is at a crossroads this year
Speaker 1: and it's gonna be very interesting to see what happens
Speaker 1: to him in twenty twenty five. And that's this week's
Speaker 1: Chasing Challengers. Remember Microsoft AI solutions empower you to take
Speaker 1: bold steps and new ideas to help drive your business forward.
Speaker 1: With Microsoft as your trusted partner, you can navigate your
Speaker 1: journey with confidence of finding innovative solutions and reaching new possibilities.
Speaker 1: Visit Microsoft dot com Slash Challengers to learn more. What's
Speaker 1: your take on Anthony Volby this year?
Speaker 2: So the main thing is the batting order spot. I
Speaker 2: think I've heard it said by some people that well
Speaker 2: they're probably going to put him back in the leadoff spot.
Speaker 2: You know, he's still a young guy. Blah blah blah,
Speaker 2: he's got speed. His on base percentage is atrocious. Last
Speaker 2: year it was two ninety three. The year before it
Speaker 2: was two eighty three. The Yankees moved him down from
Speaker 2: the leadoff spot because he was somebody that was leading off.
Speaker 2: I believe I'm just going to pull it up, but
Speaker 2: I believe it was June or July when they dropped him.
Speaker 2: It was July the third when they removed him from
Speaker 2: the leadoff spot and he never returned there for the
Speaker 2: rest of the season. Batting in the seventh through ninth spot,
Speaker 2: that's a concern. If he's batting seven through nine, there's
Speaker 2: not a lot of value there if you're looking at
Speaker 2: the straight projections. So first all start with the ADP.
Speaker 2: He's the fourteenth shortstop by ADP, and if you look
Speaker 2: at the dollar value projections, he's twentieth. So a lot
Speaker 2: of that comes from the low batting average two thirty
Speaker 2: seven projected batting average fourteen home runs. If he's batting
Speaker 2: at the bottom of the order, then the counting stats
Speaker 2: probably aren't going to be great. He's projected for just
Speaker 2: sixty RBI. You know, he kind of took a step
Speaker 2: back last season. The barrel rate, which is something I
Speaker 2: look at a lot. I've referenced it all the time
Speaker 2: on the show. He went from nine percent in his
Speaker 2: rookie year, which is really a good number, to three
Speaker 2: point nine percent. The launch angle fell from fourteen to eight,
Speaker 2: the hard hit rate went down, you know, the home
Speaker 2: runs went from twenty one to twelve. It was just
Speaker 2: a bad season for Anthony Bolpy. He kind of needs
Speaker 2: to prove it to me at this point that he
Speaker 2: can be a starting caliber shortstop in even a fifteen
Speaker 2: team rotal league. At this point, I think he's like
Speaker 2: a middle infield option for the most part, maybe even
Speaker 2: a bench option at some point. But he's somebody like
Speaker 2: I've done a couple of videos, short forms and different
Speaker 2: podcasts on this channel where I've talked about fading him,
Speaker 2: and that's my stance heading into this year that Vulpi
Speaker 2: is somebody that's just too rich for my blood. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Look, I would buy him low in dynasty leagues just
Speaker 1: because the principle of buying low on once upon a
Speaker 1: time very highly rated prospects. It's always a good practice.
Speaker 1: Typically it tends to work out for you when you
Speaker 1: buy him low. But in Redraft, I got a problem
Speaker 1: with I'm with you, I'm not liking it. Walkee Penguins
Speaker 1: entered the chat. I like Crochet better if Mayor didn't
Speaker 1: love him. Well, Mayor's a big Red Sox guy, so
Speaker 1: that's what happens. I don't know how the guy who's
Speaker 1: an Eagles fan is also a Red Sox fan. I'm
Speaker 1: not sure how that got crossed up. But then again,
Speaker 1: I'm a Patriots fan and a Mets fan, which is
Speaker 1: nice because I've had cycles of joy and utter disillusion
Speaker 1: and it just goes in a circle for about twenty
Speaker 1: years where I just felt awful pain, awful pain, and
Speaker 1: then August came in training camp, and then Super Bowls
Speaker 1: and life is great, and then Spring training happens, and
Speaker 1: then by June the Mets were out of it. Also here,
Speaker 1: Bova has some of the names that they were looking at,
Speaker 1: camin Naro, Gilbert, Langford, Streider, Merrill, and Sasaki. I gotta
Speaker 1: tell you, cam Naro's the want to stix out for me.
Speaker 1: I think Joe's gonna say Gilbert, but I don't want
Speaker 1: to speak for you.
Speaker 2: The one that sticks out for me is actually Langford.
Speaker 2: I think Langford.
Speaker 1: Really over caman Aro. Okay, I am.
Speaker 2: Langford over camon Aro. I think, Yeah, the lineup I
Speaker 2: think is better in Texas going forward. I think it's
Speaker 2: affectable that they're going to be fairly close. But Langford
Speaker 2: also brings you speed that camon Aro doesn't really have.
Speaker 2: Caman Arroo might have a little bit more power, but
Speaker 2: I think it's relatively close, but I am more of
Speaker 2: I had a keeper question actually just this morning between
Speaker 2: the two of them, and I told the guy Langford.
Speaker 2: So that's my stance, But I don't think it's like
Speaker 2: an obvious answer either.
Speaker 1: Jelly wants to know, is ATC you prefer projection system? Well,
Speaker 1: ATC and it's aero cone friend of our here over
Speaker 1: at Fantasy Pros. It's an aggregate system, right. It takes
Speaker 1: all the projections and kind of gives you the average
Speaker 1: of the projection. So that's a great way instead of
Speaker 1: beating around and trying to look at a million different projections,
Speaker 1: you can actually just look at ATC and kind of
Speaker 1: get the bigger picture. So in that sense, yeah, it's
Speaker 1: it's pretty good and actually, we just did a mock
Speaker 1: draft show over on his pod. I was over there
Speaker 1: do a little mock draft action. Catch out that pod. Yes,
Speaker 1: it was a good good time. Let's take a quick
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Speaker 1: fan slash Fantasy Pros. And now back to the action.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to some more players here. Let's
Speaker 1: get some pitchers here that the projections hate. I'll start
Speaker 1: with Corbyn Burns. New digs for him, Arizona, that's where
Speaker 1: he wanted to be. Now, the Arizona Diamondbacks scored a
Speaker 1: ton of runs last year in terms of ballpark environment.
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if you want to call
Speaker 1: it a push. I'm not sure where your head's at.
Speaker 1: But Joe Cordin Burns started off really well. The second
Speaker 1: half wasn't quite as good as the first half, but
Speaker 1: you know, Cortin Burn's been a very steady pitcher for
Speaker 1: a while. How Well, However, I would say he is
Speaker 1: not a guy that, if you dial back to three
Speaker 1: years ago, has been quite as dominant. Maybe those numbers
Speaker 1: were unsustainable. What are the projections tell you about him
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five?
Speaker 2: Yeah, Colbyn Burns was brilliant and I think he's still
Speaker 2: a really good pitcher. But I think he's just a
Speaker 2: little bit Pricey, and I think the projections tend to
Speaker 2: agree on that. By ADP, he is the ninth pitcher
Speaker 2: off the board and Emmanuel Classe is ahead of him,
Speaker 2: So that's actually the eighth starting pitcher let me go
Speaker 2: to let me just or by starting pitchers, so was
Speaker 2: the eighth starting pitcher by ADP, and in terms of
Speaker 2: the dollar value projected thirteenth he's projected below Logan Web below,
Speaker 2: Yamamoto below, Snell, Framber, Valdez. I think a lot of
Speaker 2: it comes down to the three fifty five projected era
Speaker 2: and the fact that he's not projected for a strikeout
Speaker 2: per inning. Corbyn Burns at times in his career has
Speaker 2: been a thirty five percent strikeout rate guy. He had
Speaker 2: two hundred and forty three strikeouts in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 2: Last season, in one hundred and ninety four innings, he
Speaker 2: just had one hundred and eighty one. And if you
Speaker 2: look progressively every year from thirty five percent to thirty
Speaker 2: to twenty five to twenty three, he's lost ticks on
Speaker 2: the strikeout rate every single year. The phips are still
Speaker 2: very good, but they're not what they were in twenty
Speaker 2: one and twenty two. They're and like in the mid
Speaker 2: threes when he was in the mid twoes. I think
Speaker 2: that the ballpark is interesting. It's not a terribly hit
Speaker 2: or friendly park. It actually is pretty bad for left
Speaker 2: handed power. So I don't think the park is a
Speaker 2: big thing for me. Really. It's just that I don't
Speaker 2: know what I'm getting in terms of strikeouts and era
Speaker 2: from Corbyn Burns. It might be in that three six,
Speaker 2: three seven range. And if I'm taking a starter in
Speaker 2: the third round, is my that's a little bit dicey
Speaker 2: for me. If he's not even gonna give me a strikeout, perinting,
Speaker 2: I think that's a little bit of a a little
Speaker 2: bit too much meat a stomach in the third round.
Speaker 1: I agree, I would rather have Crochet Sale, Reagan Cease,
Speaker 1: probably Snell all over Burns. To be honest with you,
Speaker 1: I love Snell this year with the Dodgers. I think
Speaker 1: he is the safest guy. That team's gonna win one
Speaker 1: hundred games just by accident. So that's why I'd go.
Speaker 1: Also some fun things in the chat. Wonky Penguin is
Speaker 1: a Cubs Vikings fan because her dad thought that overcoming
Speaker 1: difficult challenges was an important part of her childhood. It's
Speaker 1: built character for you, Wonky Penguin. Here's another one, Tyler,
Speaker 1: I'm a Blue Jays an Argonauts fan. Does that count?
Speaker 2: Go ahead, arguts? This might be the first CFL reference
Speaker 2: ever on the Fantasy Pros Baseball podcast. It might be.
Speaker 1: I thought that would make you happy. Yeah, you're You're
Speaker 1: a good, red blooded Canadian. They're the only teams.
Speaker 2: That's won a championship in Toronto in the last twenty
Speaker 2: or thirty years.
Speaker 1: I like, here's one from Sir Tray. Hey, guys, fun
Speaker 1: watching you on Twitter, trying to decide my keeper's ten
Speaker 1: team head to head Agoria is they have to drop
Speaker 1: two Otani Caminaro, Churio, Cruz Diaz and Tanner Scott to
Speaker 1: drop two. This is easy. Uh, it's gonna be Daz
Speaker 1: for me and Scott. I mean, that's it. Yeah, closers
Speaker 1: are replaceable. This is the easiest question we're gonna have
Speaker 1: all year, Joe, Right, you got anything to add there?
Speaker 2: Tanner Scott, Like, I think he'll probably get the majority
Speaker 2: of the saves, but that's a pretty strong Pano in
Speaker 2: Los Angeles. He might get seventeen saves this year or
Speaker 2: something like that. It could be twenty eight.
Speaker 1: But some managers don't like using lefties and saved situations.
Speaker 1: I like to save them for that big spot. Like
Speaker 1: I'm just saying it's historically something the managers do. Not
Speaker 1: everybody's Billy Wagner necessarily, But I'm telling you right now,
Speaker 1: just watch it might be more complicated. You think that's
Speaker 1: a no brainer. Those are two easy drops you're gonna crush.
Speaker 1: It's a great team. Let's do another picture here, Hunter
Speaker 1: Brown awful, awful April, but man, after that, awfully good.
Speaker 1: Now I understand, you know, we have to bake into
Speaker 1: some of the bad Hunter Brown in the projections, but
Speaker 1: I want to be more up. S'simistic when it comes
Speaker 1: to Hunter Brown. Why are some of the projections looking pessimistic?
Speaker 2: So the thing that stands out from the projections, he
Speaker 2: has a top one hundred ADP, but he is as
Speaker 2: the forty first starting pitcher in terms of ADP. That's
Speaker 2: that's a little bit high, I think, just based on
Speaker 2: the projected whip at one twenty five, the projected era
Speaker 2: at three seventy five. Like, if he's giving you a
Speaker 2: one to twenty five whip over one hundred and seventy innings.
Speaker 2: It's not great. It's not really helping you a high
Speaker 2: three's era a lot of the time, especially in a
Speaker 2: deeper league. Brown is going to be your SP three.
Speaker 2: Maybe if you're really pushing it, he could be your
Speaker 2: SP two. I just think that there's a lot of
Speaker 2: risk there. Like Houston's still a good team, but they're
Speaker 2: not quite as good as they were. I think losing Kyle,
Speaker 2: Tucker and Bregman is a big loss. Replacing them with
Speaker 2: Walker and Parides definitely helps, but are they going to
Speaker 2: be quite as good. Probably not. I think you can
Speaker 2: maybe shave a win or two off of Brown's projections,
Speaker 2: and I think that era is probably going to be
Speaker 2: somewhere in like the mid to high threes. So I
Speaker 2: don't know. I think he's a good source of strikeout, but
Speaker 2: he's kind of just not somebody that knocks my socks
Speaker 2: off this season. I've drafted him once or twice, but
Speaker 2: I don't know. I think you can do better in
Speaker 2: that top one hundred ADP range.
Speaker 1: I still like Hunter Brown. I think he was so
Speaker 1: good down the stretch. I'm just buying. I'm gonna buy
Speaker 1: in a Hunter Brown. The team will still be very competitive,
Speaker 1: I think losing Tucker and Bregman takes a big hit
Speaker 1: there for Houston, and I don't know if Paritis is
Speaker 1: enough to take that back. But look at some of
Speaker 1: the pitchers going in that same range. Grayson Rodriguez, I
Speaker 1: would take over him. Rokie Sazaki and Hunter Brown are
Speaker 1: very close to me. But Zach Gallen I would take
Speaker 1: over either. Do you agree or disagree?
Speaker 2: Grayson's a little dicey right now with this whole lat situation.
Speaker 2: I'm not sure what to make of.
Speaker 1: Lats and Obliques. That's all spring trainings about Joe Lots
Speaker 1: and Obliques.
Speaker 2: Who are the other guys that you said besides him?
Speaker 1: The other guys in the similar adp Freddy Peralta, Grayson Rodriguez,
Speaker 1: Roki Sazaki, Hunter Brown, Zach Gowen.
Speaker 2: That's sure like I'm taking I'm personally taking all of
Speaker 2: them over Brown. I think maybe not t Sazaki because
Speaker 2: Azaki is going to get on the hype train with
Speaker 2: these with these crazy splitters I'm seeing on the timeline,
Speaker 2: and his price is going to shoot up. I think
Speaker 2: I'm taking most of the over. I think I'm more
Speaker 2: of a fade on Brown this year. I'm coming to
Speaker 2: realize yeah.
Speaker 1: I can understand. All right, let's get to another pitcher here.
Speaker 1: Hunter Green massive strikeout potential, could certainly lead the National
Speaker 1: League in strikeouts. I think even with Paul Skeens being
Speaker 1: there and Hunter Green starting to get the home runs
Speaker 1: under control, starting to figure things out, it's kind of
Speaker 1: been a low, slow road for him. And it feels
Speaker 1: like Hunter Green is, you know, I think a twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four when you look back, really putting the pieces together,
Speaker 1: not just trying to throw the ball, but really trying
Speaker 1: to pitch a little bit more and starting to I think,
Speaker 1: find the outs and lineups, do the things that better
Speaker 1: pitchers do instead of just trying to blow everybody away
Speaker 1: and strike out everybody. However, the strikeout totals are extremely high,
Speaker 1: and that is something we look for in fantasy. But
Speaker 1: when you're digging into the numbers and rejections for twenty
Speaker 1: twenty five, what did you see about Hunter Green?
Speaker 2: Well, we got hundred brown, Hunter Green, and then up
Speaker 2: next Hunter Blue on our projections. So when I'm taking
Speaker 2: a look at his numb.
Speaker 1: Sounds like a reservoir dogs kind of thing situation here.
Speaker 2: Steve Buscemi's gonna walk through the door any minute.
Speaker 1: Why, mister pink.
Speaker 2: So the thing with Hunter Green, I think is the
Speaker 2: ballpark a lot of the time that scares people. It
Speaker 2: scares me a little bit. If you are starting him
Speaker 2: in Cincinnati, you never really know what's going to happen.
Speaker 2: He has historically had a bit of a home run problem.
Speaker 2: Last year that seemed to be curved a little bit,
Speaker 2: But I'm not really sure what the real version of
Speaker 2: him is. Like his first two years homer to fly
Speaker 2: ball sixteen percent, fourteen percent. Those are well above league gaverage,
Speaker 2: and then last year he went down to seven percent,
Speaker 2: which is below league gaverage. So is he somewhere in
Speaker 2: the middle layer? Probably you can split the difference. But
Speaker 2: I think you can also split the difference on a
Speaker 2: lot of the numbers from twenty three to twenty four,
Speaker 2: Like is he a four e two era? No? But
Speaker 2: is he a two seven five era in that ballpark
Speaker 2: with his command? I don't know, honestly. Like the whip
Speaker 2: went from one four two two to one zero two.
Speaker 2: Like the way I'm approaching hundred, I was, what does
Speaker 2: one hunder brown? The way am approaching hundred Green this
Speaker 2: year is I'm kind of splitting the difference from his
Speaker 2: twenty three to twenty four stats, which seems kind of
Speaker 2: what the projections are doing. If he's giving you what
Speaker 2: ATC's calling for, which is a three to nine ERA
Speaker 2: and a one one seven whip, you can live with it.
Speaker 2: But as a top one hundred pick, I don't know
Speaker 2: that you're gonna love it. Like he is projected in
Speaker 2: the same value range as Chris Sanchez, who's going about
Speaker 2: one hundred picks later or about eighty ninety picks later.
Speaker 2: Same as Gosman, same as Rodan, Nate E Evaldi. These
Speaker 2: guys are all projected right around the same dollar value.
Speaker 2: Flynn Rodriguez, Galen Rinaldo, Lopez, all these guys are projected
Speaker 2: right in the same range. And I think without having
Speaker 2: to worry about Great American Ballpark, they might be a
Speaker 2: little bit safer.
Speaker 1: There's no way I'm taking Ronaldo Lopez over hundred Green.
Speaker 1: I'm just not doing it.
Speaker 3: That's fair.
Speaker 1: I just I get it. It was a good year last
Speaker 1: year for Lopez converting. I get it. It was solid.
Speaker 1: It was the story that kept on going to we're
Speaker 1: waiting for it to end. It did not. I'm not
Speaker 1: saying Lopez can't be good. But I want the upside
Speaker 1: of a Green and that strikeout potential. So there's an
Speaker 1: opportunity with some of the guys we're talking about. Maybe
Speaker 1: the projections don't like where some of the sharper people
Speaker 1: in your leagues might start to fade away from some
Speaker 1: of these people. If people are fading away from Hunter Green,
Speaker 1: I'm taking them and I'm taking that strike out upside
Speaker 1: along with it. Now he's only made twenty six starts.
Speaker 1: That's the career high last year. That also has to
Speaker 1: enter into your psyche when you're evaluating players. But at
Speaker 1: his age right now, he's gonna be turning twenty five. Look,
Speaker 1: I'm in on Hunter Green. I love the upside, and
Speaker 1: I think that Cincinnati Red's team it's gonna be a
Speaker 1: very good, very athletic team there. You're gonna have a
Speaker 1: lot of positives in Ladolo and singer pitch well, they're
Speaker 1: gonna compete for that division. They're definitely gonna compete. Two
Speaker 1: more pitchers to talk about here, Let's go to Jared Jones. Now,
Speaker 1: we had Nick Pollock on the show. If you missed it,
Speaker 1: go watch on our YouTube channel. Jared Jones one of
Speaker 1: the guys he absolutely loves. He had a red hot
Speaker 1: start to the season, kind of the inverse of Hunter Brown,
Speaker 1: and then of course some injuries happened and the rest
Speaker 1: was history. So kind of an incomplete downward spiral there
Speaker 1: for Jared Jones in the second half. But it's a
Speaker 1: new year, yes it is, So where are we going
Speaker 1: with Jared Jones this year? With the projections Joe, So.
Speaker 2: He's kind of a hard evel just because of how
Speaker 2: things fell off for him in the second half of
Speaker 2: the season. Like you alluded to, first half was a
Speaker 2: three fifty six ERA second half he did miss a
Speaker 2: big chunk of time as well, but five eighty seven
Speaker 2: ERA in the second half he was getting crushed, and
Speaker 2: I think the projections are kind of looking into that.
Speaker 2: There's also not a ton of data because he's only
Speaker 2: pitched a one season when there is not as much
Speaker 2: to look back on. Projections do have a bit of
Speaker 2: a harder time, But he is projected as the number
Speaker 2: sixty starting pitcher with a five dollars value, maybe they
Speaker 2: call it a six dollar value in twelve team leagues,
Speaker 2: behind Robby Ray, behind Ranger Suarez, behind your guy, Seth Lugo,
Speaker 2: standyel Contratadge Bradley. These guys are all going well after
Speaker 2: him in drafts and they're all projected right around the
Speaker 2: same range. I think that there is some concern the
Speaker 2: team stinks, like the team at the front office in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2: I don't know what they've done here. You got a
Speaker 2: healthy policy teams, you have an ostensibly healthy Jared je
Speaker 2: Ownes right now. Your window to compete is open, Tommy
Speaker 2: Fans and.
Speaker 1: The division's week. It's not a strong division either. There's
Speaker 1: no way if you added a big batter two this offseason.
Speaker 1: But they didn't do it. And why they don't go
Speaker 1: to a team like the Orioles as a glut of
Speaker 1: position player prospects. I keep saying this and make a
Speaker 1: deal with them. I don't understand. If you've got all
Speaker 1: these pitching prospects, there's only five spots in the rotation
Speaker 1: trade one of these guys, the Orioles are desperate for pitching.
Speaker 1: Their average age of pitcher is what now between Charlie
Speaker 1: Morton and Segano and those I mean it is not young.
Speaker 1: I don't understand what they're thinking.
Speaker 2: They're Joe, and if you look at the Pirates lineup,
Speaker 2: they have a thirty seven year old Tommy Fan projected
Speaker 2: a lead off and a thirty eight year old Andrew
Speaker 2: McCutchen going to be cleaning up for them. It's a
Speaker 2: problem huge like that. That is a problematic offense. If
Speaker 2: Jared Jones won seven games this year or eight games
Speaker 2: this year, I don't think anybody should be surprised by that.
Speaker 2: The projected numbers are pretty good. But at the same time,
Speaker 2: a three ninety four era, a one to twenty two
Speaker 2: whip about a strikeout printing. It's fine. But if I
Speaker 2: can get the same value in Robbie, Ray Lugo, Al Contra,
Speaker 2: Nester Cortes, Ryan Pepio, all these guys who are going
Speaker 2: later that have better projections, I just don't really see
Speaker 2: the need to take a risky shot on Jared Jones.
Speaker 2: I still like him, like Dynasty Leagues, I'd still be
Speaker 2: buying into him, but I think there's a lot of
Speaker 2: risk in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1: Last guy on the list Shane Bose of the Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay Rays. Now look, Boz is a young picture with
Speaker 1: a lot of upside. Problem is in Paulock and I
Speaker 1: were talking about this on the last show on the
Speaker 1: Number two Pitching Guide, we were talking about Lttel having
Speaker 1: no options left and that could hurt bos or Pepio
Speaker 1: potentially in this rotation. I know Eno on the show
Speaker 1: that you guys did was talking about you know, Ryan
Speaker 1: Pepio very glowingly. So is Shane bos looking a situation
Speaker 1: where he could be a little Maybe he's the odd
Speaker 1: man out of this rotation at least to start?
Speaker 2: Oh man, I hope not. That would be devastating because
Speaker 2: as much as I think the projections are down on
Speaker 2: Shane Boss, I still really like him. I think that
Speaker 2: he is now finally in a situation where he's he healthy,
Speaker 2: he should have a chance, like the rotation should be McLanahan, Bradley, Papio,
Speaker 2: probably Boz and Rasmussen. And I guess the Lttel question
Speaker 2: is behind Maybe they make him a long reliever or
Speaker 2: something like that, or maybe Rasmussen stays in the pen
Speaker 2: because he's not terribly stretched out at the moment. There
Speaker 2: are some questions I guess as to how they're going
Speaker 2: to assemble the rotation, but I don't think Shane BoSz
Speaker 2: should be in jeopardy. That being said, the projections are
Speaker 2: not great on him, one hundred and thirty eight innings,
Speaker 2: which is not great in terms of volume, a four
Speaker 2: h five ERA, a one to twenty four whip and
Speaker 2: fewer than strikeout printing. The strikeouts I think are are
Speaker 2: misprojected there. I think that he is somebody that was
Speaker 2: working his way back from a major surgery. The strikeout
Speaker 2: rate wasn't what it was pre surgery, but over the
Speaker 2: fourteen starts he still had very good results. He the
Speaker 2: three zero six ERA and a one zero six whip.
Speaker 2: I think the strikeouts will come back. This is a
Speaker 2: guy who had a thirty six percent strikeout rate in
Speaker 2: his first touch of major League baseball, and then the
Speaker 2: next year it was twenty six percent. Like, the strikeouts
Speaker 2: are legit. The stuff is very very legit. With Shane Bozz,
Speaker 2: I think that this is a year where he can
Speaker 2: defy the projections. But I think we have to at
Speaker 2: least give them some We have to at least acknowledge them,
Speaker 2: especially considering the ballpark downgrade in terms of the pitchers
Speaker 2: that are going to be headed there too. Essentially, what
Speaker 2: is Yankee Stadium hot Yankee Stadium?
Speaker 1: I like that, or humid to Yankee Stadium? Maybe we
Speaker 1: call it that some great stuff there. Obviously, when you're
Speaker 1: looking at some of these projections, you see them on
Speaker 1: the player profiles here at Fantasypros dot com, So make
Speaker 1: sure you head over there. Joe's done some amazing work
Speaker 1: to bring us these names today. And of course, if
Speaker 1: you're watching on demand on our YouTube channel, who are
Speaker 1: the players that you're possibly fading in twenty twenty five?
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Speaker 1: on for Joe Rico, I'm Joey P. We'll see you
Speaker 1: next time. Kids.
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