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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros m LB. This is

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Speaker 1: the Fantasy Baseball Podcast as Me, Joey P Joe Pisapia

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Speaker 1: with me today. My best friend Joe Alrico Welsh is

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Speaker 1: still recovering from his illness, but Joe, Rico and I

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Speaker 1: are here on our Twitch live. You can also watch

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Speaker 1: on YouTube on demand of course, but we're gonna be

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Speaker 1: doing a lot of stuff here on Twitch live, so

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Speaker 1: make sure you go to twitch dot tv slash Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Pros and you subscribe today so you could be a

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Speaker 1: part of all the live mannas because that's where Leading

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Speaker 1: Off is gonna be live to start the season. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna be live on YouTube two on Wednesday afternoons taking

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Speaker 1: your question. So don't worry, we're not leaving there. Everything

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Speaker 1: is gonna be great. And today we're gonna talk about hate.

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Speaker 1: Why because you know the Internet sometimes, Joe, it's such

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Speaker 1: a loving, nurturing, tender place, so we thought we'd kind

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Speaker 1: of changed it up from what the Internet is normally,

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Speaker 1: especially social media and things like that. Instead we talk

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Speaker 1: about some players, not that we hate, but the projections hate.

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Speaker 1: So let's talk about this because you and Welsh did

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Speaker 1: a show recently about the players projections love obviously people

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Speaker 1: who might have some big breakout seasons. But we're going

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Speaker 1: to flip the script today, So Joe, take us behind

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Speaker 1: the mindset of this program today that you and I

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Speaker 1: are going to run through with these players.

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Speaker 2: Well, first, I hope the people are going to be

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Speaker 2: all right dealing with some hate on the internet. I

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Speaker 2: know this is such an anomaly, but we're going to

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Speaker 2: try and get through it. So what I've done today,

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Speaker 2: what we're going to do today is take a look

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Speaker 2: at ten players that projections. We're using the word hate,

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Speaker 2: but projections are lower on than the consensus, especially in

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Speaker 2: terms of ADP. So what I've done is I'm putting

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Speaker 2: the ATC projections into an auction calculator and the way

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Speaker 2: that it works on fan graphs is that it'll show

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Speaker 2: you ADP as well. So I'm picking out some players

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Speaker 2: where the ADP is a lot lower than the projected

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Speaker 2: auction value, and you're going to see once we get

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Speaker 2: into it. I'll give you some comparisons in terms of

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Speaker 2: guys who are close in terms of dollar range, very

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Speaker 2: different than what you're seeing in terms of ADP. So

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Speaker 2: if you are a projections. Person These are essentially the

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Speaker 2: players you should be fading heading into twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: And for those of you who always complain, hey, there's

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Speaker 1: not enough salary cap information stuff on the site, we'll

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Speaker 1: here you go, here you go. We're talking about it

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Speaker 1: right now. Some players you might want to think twice about,

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Speaker 1: at least overbidding for maybe you want to pay cost,

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Speaker 1: maybe slightly less, but overbidding. Maybe you should think twice

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Speaker 1: about it. One thing you should not think twice about

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Speaker 1: is joining us Wednesday for Fantasy Fest, because that is

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Speaker 1: going down this coming Wednesday. I can't believe it's gonna

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Speaker 1: be here three pm Eastern on our YouTube channel, Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Bros MLB. Subscribe today. We're trying to get to twenty

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Speaker 1: five thousand before opening day. We can do it. It's

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Speaker 1: a four hour live stream pack with bus breakouts, bowld predictions,

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Speaker 1: and we're gonna help you crush all of your competition,

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Speaker 1: embarrass your friends and relatives. That's what we're here to do.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be Me Mayor Welsh, the Worm, all the

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Speaker 1: fun people, Joe Rico, and some special guests too, Chris Towers,

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Speaker 1: Frank Stanfel from CBS Eric Cross, the Prospect Guru himself,

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Speaker 1: Scott Pianowski, and many more. So tune in Live pros

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Speaker 1: MLB YouTube channel three pm Eastern ring the belt that

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Speaker 1: goes dang for notifications so you don't miss it, and

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Speaker 1: of course if you do, if you have to work

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Speaker 1: for a living, it'll still live on our YouTube channel.

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Speaker 1: But we'd love for you to join us for four

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Speaker 1: hours of wall to wall baseball. All right, let's start

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Speaker 1: here with the first player on our list, Joe Alrico.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with Jared Duran. Last year, Jared Duran was

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Speaker 1: the darling of this program, especially me. I hype that

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Speaker 1: guy so much, and even with my lofty expectations, Jared

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Speaker 1: durand delivered. Scored over one hundred and ten runs, hit

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Speaker 1: twenty homers, stole thirty plus bases, hit to eighty five.

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Speaker 1: Yet something's telling you the projections might not be as

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Speaker 1: kind to him in twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, last year I was very interested in him as well.

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Speaker 2: The price was still kind of deflated. It's not deflated

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Speaker 2: this year. He's a second round pick in most rooms

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Speaker 2: if you're looking at the ATC projections and it's a

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Speaker 2: twelve team auction calculator that I'm using, Jared Duran comes

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Speaker 2: out as the thirty first overall hitter, not even including pitchers,

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Speaker 2: thirty first overall hitter, behind Manny Machado, behind Jazz Chisholm,

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Speaker 2: behind Katel Marte, Raphael Devers, a lot of players that

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Speaker 2: are going a lot later in draft rooms than he is.

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Speaker 2: I think part of it is that they're calling for

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Speaker 2: some regression in terms of the batting average. ATC hasn't

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Speaker 2: projected at two sixty eight when he hit two eighty

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Speaker 2: five last year. They're also calling for three fewer homers,

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Speaker 2: a drop by twenty runs, six fewer ribbies, and four

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Speaker 2: fewer stolen bases. So really, across the board, ATC is

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Speaker 2: calling for a bit of regression. With Jaron Duran, I'm

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Speaker 2: really not one hundred percent sure what to make of it.

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Speaker 2: I think that the projections are probably pretty fair, but

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Speaker 2: he could also surpass them, especially in terms of batting average.

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Speaker 2: He's hit two eighty five and two ninety five the

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Speaker 2: last two seasons. I'm not sure why they would expect

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Speaker 2: him to come down to the two sixties, but ATC

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Speaker 2: is throwing some cold water on the Jared Duran love

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Speaker 2: for sure.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, I'm still very much in on Jared Duran.

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Speaker 1: The ADP is definitely steep, but at the same time

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Speaker 1: I'm looking around the other outfielder as that he's going

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Speaker 1: near Jackson Curio. Jaron Duran, I think are very close.

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Speaker 1: I think there's some value if you go like a

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Speaker 1: round or so later, or you know, a couple dollars

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Speaker 1: later on guys like maybe the upside of Ono Cruz

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Speaker 1: or why at Langford. So I get that, but I

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Speaker 1: understand what you're saying. I'm not off Jaron Duran, but

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Speaker 1: I don't want to overpay for him either. Let's go

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Speaker 1: to another outfielder. This one's in Chicago, says Azuki. Now,

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Speaker 1: this is another guy that I think still ironically is undervalued.

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Speaker 1: He is the eighty six player going off the board

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Speaker 1: in the consensus ADP, which you can find, by the way,

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Speaker 1: at fantasypros dot com. He's the twenty sixth outfielder off

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Speaker 1: the board, but he's still going ahead of guys like

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Speaker 1: Luis Robert, which I do have a problem with because

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Speaker 1: Robert's a guy that has shown you thirty twenty kind

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Speaker 1: of a season. Say it's Azuki, I think is still

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Speaker 1: more of a twenty fifteen guy, but he does give

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Speaker 1: you batting average. What are you seeing in sayas Azuki's

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Speaker 1: projections that have you a little concerned.

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Speaker 2: So I'm personally a very big fan of Saya Suzuki.

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Speaker 2: I think that he is a well rounded contributor. He

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Speaker 2: can give you five category production. I think the Cubs

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Speaker 2: lineup is sneaky very good this year, but if you

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Speaker 2: are looking at the ATC projections, he comes in as

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Speaker 2: the twenty eighth outfielder, behind Ian Hap, behind Taylor Ward,

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Speaker 2: behind a lot of guys who are going well outside

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Speaker 2: of the top one hundred picks, and say Suzuki is

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Speaker 2: going right around pick eighty five. For another piece of context,

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Speaker 2: he's projected is essentially the same value as Nick Castillanos,

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Speaker 2: who's going about eighty five picks later than he is.

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Speaker 2: So I understand some of the skepticism with say A Suzuki,

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Speaker 2: but it feels like they're a little bit low in

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Speaker 2: the batting average. The last couple of years he's been

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Speaker 2: too eighty three to eighty five. I see some systems

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Speaker 2: in the two fifties. Even the bat has him a

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Speaker 2: two fifty seven. We're focusing in on ATC at two

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Speaker 2: sixty three. But it just seems a little bit too conservative.

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Speaker 2: They're essentially saying he's gonna repeat what he did last year,

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Speaker 2: and I guess that implies that he's going to miss

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Speaker 2: some games as well, because he played one hundred and

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Speaker 2: thirty two last year. Projections are for one hundred and

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Speaker 2: twenty nine, but it feels a little bit light. I

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Speaker 2: think that Suzuki can probably hit twenty five home run

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Speaker 2: twenty five home runs if things break right with his

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Speaker 2: barrel right hard hit rates very good. I like him

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Speaker 2: a lot more than the projections do.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, I don't think he's got the ceiling, like

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Speaker 1: I said of a Louis Robert or some other guys

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Speaker 1: maybe in that same range, but the floor is so strong.

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Speaker 1: I'm with you. I think the projections here are being

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Speaker 1: a little too negative. I also like the fact that

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Speaker 1: Kyle Tucker's in this lineup too, and I think whenever

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Speaker 1: you're adding talent to a lineup, you have to take

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Speaker 1: that into account. It has a ripple effect. It does

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Speaker 1: trickle down. Jelly Boy wants to know how old Suzuki

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Speaker 1: is watching us live on Twitch. Thanks jelly Boy. He

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Speaker 1: is thirty, so not that old, so he is still

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Speaker 1: right in his prime good ballpark factor. For the most part.

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Speaker 1: We're talking about improved lineup this year too, if Matt

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Speaker 1: Shaw comes along quickly. Let's talk about these two outfitlders

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Speaker 1: again here just for perspective. So I'm gonna give you

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Speaker 1: some names going in the same ADP you tell me,

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Speaker 1: despite the fact maybe the projections are being a little

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Speaker 1: you know, bearish here. Who you would want to take so,

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Speaker 1: Cheerio or Jaron Durant.

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Speaker 2: I'm all in on Cheerio. For me. I would take Cheerio.

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Speaker 2: It's not like a massive difference, but I love Cheerio

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Speaker 2: this year.

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Speaker 1: Jared Duran or Jazz Chisholm.

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Speaker 2: That one's Duran for me. I think the profile is

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Speaker 2: a bit safer, especially with the batting average.

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Speaker 1: I agree. Here's one two five months of Ronald Acunya

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Speaker 1: or six theoretical months of Jared Duran.

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Speaker 2: Oh, it's still searing.

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Speaker 1: This is where the rubber meets the road here, because

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Speaker 1: this is about what kind of manager you are in fantasy?

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Speaker 1: Do you want to roll the dice with the greatness

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Speaker 1: of Acunya. We've seen him come back from the acl

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Speaker 1: tair before and come back and tear it up no

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Speaker 1: pun intended or every punt intended. But seriously, like that

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Speaker 1: is a tough one for me because if you are

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Speaker 1: the safety neck kind of owner, then you are somebody

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Speaker 1: that wants to have Jared Duran most likely as opposed

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Speaker 1: to you know, waiting for and God forbid there's a

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Speaker 1: setback for Ronald Acunya. What do you think here between

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Speaker 1: those two guys, what kind of manager are you?

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Speaker 2: Joe So I am generally a little more play it safe,

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Speaker 2: but I also play in a lot of deeper leagues.

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Speaker 2: I'm mostly playing fifteen team mix leagues, and you need

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Speaker 2: a little bit of a higher floor there. I think

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Speaker 2: the average viewer is probably more likely to be playing

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Speaker 2: in a ten or a twelve team league with the

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Speaker 2: il spots, and in that case Acuna is probably the

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Speaker 2: guy you should be taking a chance on. But I

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Speaker 2: also think that Durant really brings a lot of safety

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Speaker 2: at the top of the Red Sox lineup. That should

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Speaker 2: be very good. It's a great ballpark to hit in.

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Speaker 2: There aren't the injury concerns I can see going both ways.

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Speaker 2: For me personally, it's probably Duran because I know the

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Speaker 2: injuries are gonna find me throughout the season. I don't

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Speaker 2: want to be stockpiling them before the year starts. If

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Speaker 2: Acuna has any kind of setback, that wouldn't be good.

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Speaker 2: And also, the last time he returned from the ACL problem,

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Speaker 2: the power was kind of zapped from him for at

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Speaker 2: least that first year when he returned, So I'm not

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Speaker 2: exactly sure what kind of player we're gonna get. He's

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Speaker 2: probably not going to run as much. You'd have to

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Speaker 2: think that he's gonna take it easy a little bit

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Speaker 2: after both of these.

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Speaker 1: Is that the bill of goods we were sold last time?

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Speaker 1: And then he ran a muck. Remember it was like, oh,

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Speaker 1: you know, he's not probably not gonna run as much,

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Speaker 1: and then he stole a million bases. But it was

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Speaker 1: the power that actually lacked around a little bit. Ironically,

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Speaker 1: I guess because of the timing more than anything, or

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Speaker 1: maybe just the the power of the legs, you know,

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Speaker 1: getting back under him. That to me was actually was

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Speaker 1: so surprising, because I think what you're saying is correct.

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Speaker 1: Most people would have thought, oh, you know, the power

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Speaker 1: will be there, but the stolen bases won't. And it

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Speaker 1: was the inverse. Last time he came back from this injury.

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Speaker 2: I just wonder now that it's been both legs that

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Speaker 2: have now had an injury, a serious, significant injury, if

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Speaker 2: he's now going to say, Okay, I can't run as much.

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Speaker 2: And also, another thing about his running before is interesting.

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Speaker 2: I believe it was before the rule changes. I believe,

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Speaker 2: So that's another piece of variable we have to factor

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Speaker 2: into the equation that when he came back from the

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Speaker 2: first injury, I think that was before the stolen base

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Speaker 2: rules had changed. So maybe we can factor in a

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Speaker 2: few extra steals from him just from that alone, that

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Speaker 2: it's a little bit easier than it was three years ago.

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Speaker 2: But he is a nerve wracking pick in any league,

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Speaker 2: whether it's a deep league, your shallow league, basket ball,

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Speaker 2: whatever it is you're playing, you're taking on a lot

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Speaker 2: of risk in the third round. I've seen some droughtser

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Speaker 2: he starting to get pushed down to the fourth a

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Speaker 2: little bit. That's where I kind of like it. But

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Speaker 2: there's also some rumsorre He's in the second and I

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Speaker 2: think at that point it's a little bit too much

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Speaker 2: of a risk. That's where Jared Durant's going, and it's

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Speaker 2: a second round price on both of them. Then I

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Speaker 2: would have to go at Duran.

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Speaker 1: I think the more shallow of the league, the more

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Speaker 1: I like Akunya. Uh, just easier to deal with. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's go to Mike Wish's question here. I currently in

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Speaker 1: drafting twelve in head to edd points league with two

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Speaker 1: picks to go. If Gunn are still available to I

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Speaker 1: grab him absolutely. I mean in a head ahead he

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Speaker 1: should not still be there. So good luck with that

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Speaker 1: draft there. Let's get to another player here, Jordan Westburg. Now,

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Speaker 1: Westburg is a guy that last year eighteen homers, sixty three,

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Speaker 1: ribby stole six bases, hit two sixty four. I don't

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Speaker 1: want to say came out of nowhere, but he wasn't

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Speaker 1: the guy that we were expecting to pop last year.

259
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Speaker 1: We were looking for the Holidays and the curios dads,

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Speaker 1: and Westburg is the one that we got that sort

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Speaker 1: of broke out. Now, my concern with Westburg continues to be,

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Speaker 1: what if Kobe Mayo hits the cover off the ball.

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Speaker 1: What if, you know, Jackson Holiday, you know, finally lives

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Speaker 1: up to the promise and him getting squeezed do the projection?

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Speaker 1: So anything about that possibility of Westburg maybe losing out

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Speaker 1: on a little bit of playing timer ret bats, or

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Speaker 1: do you think Westburg is locked in no matter what,

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Speaker 1: they're just gonna find us.

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Speaker 2: I think Westburg is pretty locked in. I don't think

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Speaker 2: that he is somebody that you'd have to worry about

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Speaker 2: losing unless he's hitting his weight, then I think that

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Speaker 2: he's probably pretty locked into the lineup. But the projections

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Speaker 2: are a tad bit lower on him than I was

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Speaker 2: maybe expecting, just based on ADP. He comes in as

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Speaker 2: a ten dollars player in twelve team leagues. According to ATC,

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Speaker 2: it's about the same value as Luisa Rise. I know

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Speaker 2: it's a much different skill set overall, but if you're

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Speaker 2: just looking at pure value, they're projected about the same.

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Speaker 2: Marcus Semian is projected as a little bit more valuable,

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Speaker 2: and he's going ten or twelve picks later in a

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Speaker 2: lot of rooms. Luis Garcia, who's been our guy Joe

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Speaker 2: all draft season, is projected within a dollar and he's

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Speaker 2: going about forty picks later. So it's not that I

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Speaker 2: don't like Westburg necessarily, It's just that I feel like

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Speaker 2: I can kind of replicate his production down the board,

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Speaker 2: and at the very least I can replicate the value

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Speaker 2: that I'm getting out of that draft pick.

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Speaker 1: Look a show that's about hate, and we're getting some

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Speaker 1: love love. This format so far, flawless transition from the

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Speaker 1: playing content to the mail bag and back. That's what

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Speaker 1: we do here. It's not Fantasy pros by accident, Jelly,

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Speaker 1: but we live this life, bro, This is what we

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Speaker 1: do Westbrook. Just so you know, I like to look

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Speaker 1: back at minor league track record a big everybody knows

295
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Speaker 1: that about me, and I always like to come back

296
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Speaker 1: to double A numbers. And when you look at like

297
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Speaker 1: twenty twenty two double A, you know, only forty seven games,

298
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Speaker 1: but he had two forty seven. There's a lower version

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Speaker 1: of Jordan Westburg that does exist. And if you look

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Speaker 1: at the minor league ups and downs, it's not impossible

301
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Speaker 1: to think that the league makes adjustments to Westburg and

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Speaker 1: he could struggle a little bit. So this is actually

303
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Speaker 1: a guy that I'm fading in twenty twenty five in

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Speaker 1: a big way. Now, one guy I'm not fading, and

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Speaker 1: I think projections are too light on him is Mark

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Speaker 1: Ventos of the New York Mets. And if you've been

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Speaker 1: watching the shows for years, you know I'm the biggest

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Speaker 1: self loathing Met fan there is. It's always dooming gloom.

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Speaker 1: It's always going to be the worst. I knew that

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Speaker 1: they were not gonna get to the World Series or

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Speaker 1: win the World Series. I was just trying my best

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Speaker 1: last year to enjoy the ride, and I did. But

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Speaker 1: the entos, to me, I don't understand how he There's

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Speaker 1: no universe to me where he stays healthy for six

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Speaker 1: months and does not drive in one hundred runs. It

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Speaker 1: just doesn't exist with Lindor, with Lonso too in that

317
00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:09,400
Speaker 1: lineup now getting on base ahead of him. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if Peter A Lonzo is going to stick of

319
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Speaker 1: that three hole. I gotta be honest with you. I

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Speaker 1: think Vento's in that three hole would be much better

321
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Speaker 1: hit Nimo four and Alonzo five. I think that's probably

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Speaker 1: the best version of the Mets lineup personally. But Joe,

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Speaker 1: when you're digging deep into ATC and some of the

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Speaker 1: other projection aggregates, what do you see about Vento's.

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Speaker 2: The batting average is kind of the big one at

326
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Speaker 2: two forty two. Not that it would kill you necessarily,

327
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Speaker 2: but it is a bit of a detriment, and I

328
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Speaker 2: think it The big concern there is the swing and miss,

329
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Speaker 2: Like he had a twenty nine percent strikeout rate last year,

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Speaker 2: close to thirty twenty nine point seven, and then a

331
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Speaker 2: sixteen percent swinging strike rate. He is a free swinger,

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Speaker 2: and I think that's what worries some people. That might

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Speaker 2: be what some of the modeling doesn't like. I agree

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Speaker 2: with you that the power is completely legit, Like a

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Speaker 2: fourteen percent barrel is a crazy number. Forty seven on

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Speaker 2: the hard hit is really really good. I think that

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Speaker 2: some people and the systems specifically, are just a little

338
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Speaker 2: bit worried about what the batting average floor could be.

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Speaker 2: There are some systems that happen as a two thirty

340
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Speaker 2: hitter when you're looking at just the straight dollar values

341
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Speaker 2: compared to ADP. So he's the eighth third baseman by ADP,

342
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Speaker 2: and he's eleventh in terms of the projected dollar value.

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Speaker 2: You know, Alec Bohm is projected as a more valuable player.

344
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Speaker 2: Jake Berger, Matt Chapman, Alex Bregman, these guys are all

345
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Speaker 2: going a lot later. And I don't think Joe, you're

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Speaker 2: you're not going to agree with a lot of those,

347
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Speaker 2: probably because you are Vento's guy and I get that,

348
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Speaker 2: but if you are trying to replicate some of that

349
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Speaker 2: value later on, you can wait a few rounds and

350
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Speaker 2: you could take I mean, any of these guys really

351
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Speaker 2: that I mentioned, Bregman, Chapman, Berger, Bom and they're all

352
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Speaker 2: projected as a slightly bit more valuable than Vento's at

353
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Speaker 2: a much later cost.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, I get that. I don't think it's far off.

355
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Speaker 1: I'm just going to stay on the counter argument here,

356
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Speaker 1: which is he's a career two seventy seven hitter in

357
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Speaker 1: the minor leagues. If he hits two sixty again, I'll

358
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Speaker 1: take that to the bank. I think he's got thirty

359
00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:58,000
Speaker 1: plus homer power. I think he's going to drive in

360
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Speaker 1: a hundred. I think he could score one hundred two

361
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Speaker 1: if the break right. For this Mets offense, and I

362
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Speaker 1: know Mets fans with expectation, it's a very dangerous game

363
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Speaker 1: to play. But this is why I think lineups are

364
00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:10,080
Speaker 1: so important. We touched about this a little bit and

365
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Speaker 1: one of the last discussions we had with Suzuki. When

366
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Speaker 1: you add onon soda to a lineup, it changes everything.

367
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Speaker 1: And if you are going to hit him in the

368
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Speaker 1: three hole, which again I think is a smart thing

369
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Speaker 1: to do. Whether or not that's going to be out

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Speaker 1: of the gate, we'll find out. But over time, I

371
00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:26,280
Speaker 1: think it would be much wiser to flip flop those guys.

372
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Speaker 1: Stick Nimo in the four spot. And if you do that,

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Speaker 1: Fientos is going to be in a tremendous position where

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Speaker 1: he's going to see a ton of fastballs this year.

375
00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:36,080
Speaker 1: So where he hits in the lineup matter, is hitting

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Speaker 1: the five spot. I think maybe some of these concerns

377
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Speaker 1: come to fruition if he ends up hitting in the

378
00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:43,200
Speaker 1: three spot more often than not, I think he takes

379
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Speaker 1: off like a rocket ship. Let's get to some more

380
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Speaker 1: questions here too, because we've got some newbies here, which

381
00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:51,440
Speaker 1: we love. Black Raptors here. I'm new to Fantasy baseball,

382
00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:54,240
Speaker 1: will welcome aboard. I've been watching you guys for the videos.

383
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Speaker 1: And if I am later in the first round, would

384
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Speaker 1: you go Schemes then Scooba or would you guys rather

385
00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:03,000
Speaker 1: go and then look for a lind'or so that you

386
00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:05,520
Speaker 1: can get Zach Wheeler, Gilbert Crochet, et cetera, et cetera,

387
00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:08,080
Speaker 1: Or would you wait on a pitcher? Now it depends

388
00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:10,720
Speaker 1: on the format you're playing in blackraptor It depends. If

389
00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:15,119
Speaker 1: you are looking at, say head to head points leagues

390
00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:19,399
Speaker 1: where strikeouts are big money stuff and big points for wins,

391
00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:21,720
Speaker 1: then I'm looking for big time pitchers, and then I

392
00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:23,879
Speaker 1: would want one of those aces at the bottom for sure.

393
00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:26,040
Speaker 1: I would still lean towards School. I think he's a

394
00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:30,000
Speaker 1: little safer as much as Skeins as really interesting. If

395
00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:32,520
Speaker 1: it's season long roto, I've been somebody, You've seen it

396
00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:34,400
Speaker 1: in the drafts. I tend to wait, and it's head

397
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Speaker 1: to head, so there you go, so we see that.

398
00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:37,560
Speaker 1: So even if it's head to head points or head

399
00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:39,960
Speaker 1: to head categories, I'm a little more apt to go

400
00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:43,680
Speaker 1: with a pitcher earlier. But I'm also okay with taking

401
00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:45,719
Speaker 1: those two big hitters at the turn there and then

402
00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:48,600
Speaker 1: coming around and settling for a Blake Snell to be

403
00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:52,240
Speaker 1: my rotation head. I think the value there is still

404
00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:53,879
Speaker 1: really good with some of the guys you're getting in

405
00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:56,439
Speaker 1: the third or fourth round. The problem is if you

406
00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:59,720
Speaker 1: miss those guys in the top fifteen hitters, it's really

407
00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:01,679
Speaker 1: tough to make up ground. So I don't like it

408
00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:05,600
Speaker 1: in most roto formats, even head to head ones. Joe

409
00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:07,960
Speaker 1: what are your thoughts on what Black Raptors trying to

410
00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:08,800
Speaker 1: figure out this year.

411
00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:11,360
Speaker 2: I think at the end of the first I understand

412
00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,560
Speaker 2: the temptation to go with one of the other or

413
00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,000
Speaker 2: help maybe even double down and go pocket aces if

414
00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:19,320
Speaker 2: you're feeling adventurous. I can understand that there's some temptation there,

415
00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:23,200
Speaker 2: But for me personally. You mentioned it, Joe, like, there

416
00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:26,760
Speaker 2: are so many solid bats in the first round, specifically

417
00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:28,480
Speaker 2: at the end of the first beginning of the second, Like,

418
00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:32,119
Speaker 2: I think there's seventeen, eighteen, nineteen first round worthy hitters

419
00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:34,280
Speaker 2: this year, And so if you're able to get a

420
00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:37,119
Speaker 2: Vlad in Lindor Combo at the end of the first

421
00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,639
Speaker 2: or Vlad and Carol or your Nlvarez and Mookie bats, Like,

422
00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:43,160
Speaker 2: if you can get two of those lockdown hitters, that's

423
00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:44,840
Speaker 2: generally the way I like to go about it. And

424
00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:46,480
Speaker 2: then you've alluded to some of these pitchers that are

425
00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:47,679
Speaker 2: still going to be on the board a little bit

426
00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:51,639
Speaker 2: later on Logan, Gilbert, Garrett Crochet, Zach Wheeler. Those guys,

427
00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:53,800
Speaker 2: especially in a twelve team league, could still be sitting

428
00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:56,800
Speaker 2: there in the third Wheeler maybe not Gilbert and Crochet

429
00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:58,760
Speaker 2: almost certainly will be sitting there in the third round,

430
00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:01,119
Speaker 2: and I think the crochet talking about his value compared

431
00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:03,600
Speaker 2: to Schemes and Scooble, it's about the same for me.

432
00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:06,159
Speaker 2: There's not a huge gap there really. So if you

433
00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:09,880
Speaker 2: can still take an elite star ace level pitcher while

434
00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,439
Speaker 2: locking down two of those cornerstone hitters in your lineup,

435
00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:14,040
Speaker 2: that's the way I generally like to go about it.

436
00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:16,280
Speaker 1: Look, I think you take the two big hitters and

437
00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:20,440
Speaker 1: come back around and get a Pablo Lopez and a Snell,

438
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:22,720
Speaker 1: or you know, maybe a Dylan CS and a Snell.

439
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:24,800
Speaker 1: You know, if things really break right for you, And

440
00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:26,960
Speaker 1: to me, that is I think the better balance of

441
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:29,080
Speaker 1: a roster. It's a great question, and this is the book.

442
00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:31,040
Speaker 1: We're here for the ogs, we're here for the newbies,

443
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:32,960
Speaker 1: we're here for everybody. Let's take another question here since

444
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:34,720
Speaker 1: we're on questions, and we'll get back to some of

445
00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:38,200
Speaker 1: the players projections hate. This is from Bova Knight front

446
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:40,040
Speaker 1: of the show. Hey, guys in the Dynasty, startup slow

447
00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:43,520
Speaker 1: draft right now. Ten teams with custom scoring that favors offense.

448
00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:46,320
Speaker 1: I think, oh and power, I'm thinking offense right That's

449
00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:50,320
Speaker 1: where we're got Okay, I have started with Churio and Acunya. Man,

450
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:54,240
Speaker 1: that is a pretty fantastic dynasty even for ten teams. Star,

451
00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:55,800
Speaker 1: Can you give me a guy that you're reaching for

452
00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:58,560
Speaker 1: in general in this sort of format, giving it's a

453
00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:01,800
Speaker 1: dynasty startup? Well, I like what you're doing here, Mova,

454
00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:05,880
Speaker 1: which is you are focusing on offense first and building

455
00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:10,760
Speaker 1: building a dynasty team around young position players, because that,

456
00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:12,720
Speaker 1: to me, is what you want to do. Pitching can

457
00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:16,080
Speaker 1: be very volatile. Pitching also turns over faster than anything else,

458
00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:20,000
Speaker 1: so that is I think important. Where would you go next?

459
00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:21,320
Speaker 1: You want to try to reach for a guy like

460
00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:23,000
Speaker 1: Crochet based on his age and now that he's with

461
00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 1: the Boston Red Sox, are you still going to pound

462
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:27,720
Speaker 1: the hitting table a little bit more as or somebody

463
00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:30,720
Speaker 1: you're reaching for Joe in dynasty round? That fourth round?

464
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 1: Is it a junior Caminero, let's say, or something like that.

465
00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 2: You definitely could. You can continue to fill out the offense,

466
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:37,800
Speaker 2: and I think that's probably the wise thing to do

467
00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:41,040
Speaker 2: in the ten team league. The pitchers, You're still going

468
00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:43,480
Speaker 2: to have such great pitchers available in the sixties, seventies

469
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:45,760
Speaker 2: and eighties, and you can take six hitters to start

470
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:49,640
Speaker 2: your draft off. But I also don't really hate going

471
00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:52,320
Speaker 2: after one of those lockdown aces that are still in

472
00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:55,359
Speaker 2: their twenties, like Garrett Crochet. This channel me. While so

473
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:58,399
Speaker 2: all of us have loved Garrett Crochet throughout the draft season,

474
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:01,600
Speaker 2: I wouldn't mind going with him there. He's still so young,

475
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,600
Speaker 2: He's in a great spot in Boston. The ballpark isn't

476
00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:08,159
Speaker 2: my favorite thing, but his talent is just brilliant. Like

477
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:10,080
Speaker 2: Garrett Crochet. There's a world where Garrett Crochet is the

478
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,560
Speaker 2: number one pitcher this season in all of baseball, and

479
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:14,359
Speaker 2: win was a cy young. I wouldn't even be a

480
00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:16,360
Speaker 2: little bit surprised by it. So if you're taking him

481
00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:18,320
Speaker 2: in the fourth round and then you're backfilling some of

482
00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:20,200
Speaker 2: the bats later as well. I get the pitching is

483
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,920
Speaker 2: more volatile in Dynasty, but you have such an elite

484
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:25,560
Speaker 2: base of five category guys with which Cherio Nakunya, I

485
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:27,160
Speaker 2: wouldn't mind if you want to pivot off and start

486
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 2: going to some pitching now as well.

487
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,080
Speaker 1: We've seen some pitchers have some success in Family Park.

488
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 1: Pedro Martinez was pretty good, Roger Clement's pretty good. It

489
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 1: can be done. Folks. It can be done. And Crochet

490
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,360
Speaker 1: looks like quite the strikeout artist, dropping what he had

491
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:43,320
Speaker 1: six k's the other day in three nings or seven

492
00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:45,399
Speaker 1: I think it was yes, in the spring trade. It's

493
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:48,120
Speaker 1: only spring trading. But you know, I think the best

494
00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:52,640
Speaker 1: giveaway this year, Joe would be a crocheted Garrett Crochet.

495
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 1: I would like to give that away.

496
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:56,119
Speaker 2: A crochet we got away jersey.

497
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, not even just the jersey, like a

498
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:00,879
Speaker 1: little like you know, like how we have Little Derek.

499
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:02,960
Speaker 1: You like Little Derek Brown, like a little stuffed animal,

500
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:06,720
Speaker 1: like this kind of thing. I like when Little Derek

501
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,359
Speaker 1: makes appearances on the Baseball Show. It's fun, all right,

502
00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 1: Let's get to the next player on a list. And

503
00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 1: it also brings us to our Microsoft Chasing Challenger segment,

504
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:17,879
Speaker 1: which is brought to you by Microsoft. Just like the

505
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 1: athletes who push boundaries and redefine what's possible in business,

506
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 1: those decision makers today are turning challenges into opportunities, and

507
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 1: Microsoft meets you where you are with tools and guidance

508
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:32,360
Speaker 1: to help make you the impactful person using safe, secure

509
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 1: AI solutions or whatever challenges you're facing. Microsoft empowers you

510
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,159
Speaker 1: with the expertise to say bring it on, and in

511
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:41,639
Speaker 1: this segment, we're gonna spotlight Anthony Volpe, who is a

512
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 1: can't miss, quote unquote prospect who's frankly been missing a

513
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 1: lot of balls lately in the first two years of

514
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 1: his major league career. It's a pivotal year, I think

515
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,560
Speaker 1: for Anthony Volpe, because we're constantly in win now mode.

516
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 1: If we're the New York Yankees, and let's be honest,

517
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:56,720
Speaker 1: Volpi so far has not produced. I think up to

518
00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 1: what the expectations were. I think that is always a

519
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 1: expectations are high. It's New York. Prospects sometimes get overrated.

520
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 1: Now I've seen Volpe play in person a bunch. He's

521
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:08,359
Speaker 1: a very good player. I think he was rushed a

522
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 1: little bit to the big leagues, to be honest, and

523
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 1: I think he continues to press there. But if he

524
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:16,119
Speaker 1: doesn't produce this year, I would not be shocked if

525
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:18,880
Speaker 1: the Yankees start looking for a little competition and maybe

526
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:21,439
Speaker 1: somebody else to fill that role at shortstop. And Volpi

527
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 1: has power, he's got speed, He's a solid defender, but

528
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 1: too much swing and miss. That's been his problem. Spot

529
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:29,120
Speaker 1: in the batting orders a problem too. He's always hitting

530
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 1: lower in the lineup, that's not great. He's a good defender.

531
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:34,680
Speaker 1: Too much swing a miss. That's the big challenge heading

532
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 1: into twenty twenty five. Hopefully what Anthony Volpey can do

533
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:40,960
Speaker 1: is go back to some of the minor league tape

534
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 1: and see what are the things that was doing there

535
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,160
Speaker 1: that gave me success, that made me a better contact

536
00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:47,280
Speaker 1: hitter that I'm not doing at this major league level.

537
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:48,879
Speaker 1: Is he trying to hit too many home runs? Is

538
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 1: he trying to press a little bit too much? But

539
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:52,639
Speaker 1: Anthony volpe I think is at a crossroads this year

540
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,800
Speaker 1: and it's gonna be very interesting to see what happens

541
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:58,159
Speaker 1: to him in twenty twenty five. And that's this week's

542
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 1: Chasing Challengers. Remember Microsoft AI solutions empower you to take

543
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:05,760
Speaker 1: bold steps and new ideas to help drive your business forward.

544
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,679
Speaker 1: With Microsoft as your trusted partner, you can navigate your

545
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:12,440
Speaker 1: journey with confidence of finding innovative solutions and reaching new possibilities.

546
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 1: Visit Microsoft dot com Slash Challengers to learn more. What's

547
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 1: your take on Anthony Volby this year?

548
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 2: So the main thing is the batting order spot. I

549
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:24,359
Speaker 2: think I've heard it said by some people that well

550
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 2: they're probably going to put him back in the leadoff spot.

551
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 2: You know, he's still a young guy. Blah blah blah,

552
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 2: he's got speed. His on base percentage is atrocious. Last

553
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 2: year it was two ninety three. The year before it

554
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 2: was two eighty three. The Yankees moved him down from

555
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 2: the leadoff spot because he was somebody that was leading off.

556
00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 2: I believe I'm just going to pull it up, but

557
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 2: I believe it was June or July when they dropped him.

558
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 2: It was July the third when they removed him from

559
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:51,399
Speaker 2: the leadoff spot and he never returned there for the

560
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 2: rest of the season. Batting in the seventh through ninth spot,

561
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 2: that's a concern. If he's batting seven through nine, there's

562
00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:58,720
Speaker 2: not a lot of value there if you're looking at

563
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,960
Speaker 2: the straight projections. So first all start with the ADP.

564
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 2: He's the fourteenth shortstop by ADP, and if you look

565
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 2: at the dollar value projections, he's twentieth. So a lot

566
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 2: of that comes from the low batting average two thirty

567
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,879
Speaker 2: seven projected batting average fourteen home runs. If he's batting

568
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 2: at the bottom of the order, then the counting stats

569
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 2: probably aren't going to be great. He's projected for just

570
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 2: sixty RBI. You know, he kind of took a step

571
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,639
Speaker 2: back last season. The barrel rate, which is something I

572
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:24,160
Speaker 2: look at a lot. I've referenced it all the time

573
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 2: on the show. He went from nine percent in his

574
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 2: rookie year, which is really a good number, to three

575
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 2: point nine percent. The launch angle fell from fourteen to eight,

576
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 2: the hard hit rate went down, you know, the home

577
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 2: runs went from twenty one to twelve. It was just

578
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,200
Speaker 2: a bad season for Anthony Bolpy. He kind of needs

579
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 2: to prove it to me at this point that he

580
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 2: can be a starting caliber shortstop in even a fifteen

581
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 2: team rotal league. At this point, I think he's like

582
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:48,640
Speaker 2: a middle infield option for the most part, maybe even

583
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,439
Speaker 2: a bench option at some point. But he's somebody like

584
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:53,399
Speaker 2: I've done a couple of videos, short forms and different

585
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:55,439
Speaker 2: podcasts on this channel where I've talked about fading him,

586
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:57,560
Speaker 2: and that's my stance heading into this year that Vulpi

587
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 2: is somebody that's just too rich for my blood. Yeah.

588
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:03,679
Speaker 1: Look, I would buy him low in dynasty leagues just

589
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 1: because the principle of buying low on once upon a

590
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:11,119
Speaker 1: time very highly rated prospects. It's always a good practice.

591
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 1: Typically it tends to work out for you when you

592
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,399
Speaker 1: buy him low. But in Redraft, I got a problem

593
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:17,640
Speaker 1: with I'm with you, I'm not liking it. Walkee Penguins

594
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:19,640
Speaker 1: entered the chat. I like Crochet better if Mayor didn't

595
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:21,359
Speaker 1: love him. Well, Mayor's a big Red Sox guy, so

596
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 1: that's what happens. I don't know how the guy who's

597
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 1: an Eagles fan is also a Red Sox fan. I'm

598
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:28,400
Speaker 1: not sure how that got crossed up. But then again,

599
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:30,359
Speaker 1: I'm a Patriots fan and a Mets fan, which is

600
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:35,160
Speaker 1: nice because I've had cycles of joy and utter disillusion

601
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 1: and it just goes in a circle for about twenty

602
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:40,119
Speaker 1: years where I just felt awful pain, awful pain, and

603
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 1: then August came in training camp, and then Super Bowls

604
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 1: and life is great, and then Spring training happens, and

605
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 1: then by June the Mets were out of it. Also here,

606
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 1: Bova has some of the names that they were looking at,

607
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:54,400
Speaker 1: camin Naro, Gilbert, Langford, Streider, Merrill, and Sasaki. I gotta

608
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 1: tell you, cam Naro's the want to stix out for me.

609
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 1: I think Joe's gonna say Gilbert, but I don't want

610
00:26:58,840 --> 00:26:59,720
Speaker 1: to speak for you.

611
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 2: The one that sticks out for me is actually Langford.

612
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:03,880
Speaker 2: I think Langford.

613
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:06,120
Speaker 1: Really over caman Aro. Okay, I am.

614
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 2: Langford over camon Aro. I think, Yeah, the lineup I

615
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 2: think is better in Texas going forward. I think it's

616
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 2: affectable that they're going to be fairly close. But Langford

617
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:16,440
Speaker 2: also brings you speed that camon Aro doesn't really have.

618
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:18,600
Speaker 2: Caman Arroo might have a little bit more power, but

619
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:21,159
Speaker 2: I think it's relatively close, but I am more of

620
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 2: I had a keeper question actually just this morning between

621
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 2: the two of them, and I told the guy Langford.

622
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:27,119
Speaker 2: So that's my stance, But I don't think it's like

623
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 2: an obvious answer either.

624
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 1: Jelly wants to know, is ATC you prefer projection system? Well,

625
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:35,240
Speaker 1: ATC and it's aero cone friend of our here over

626
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,680
Speaker 1: at Fantasy Pros. It's an aggregate system, right. It takes

627
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:42,159
Speaker 1: all the projections and kind of gives you the average

628
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:44,440
Speaker 1: of the projection. So that's a great way instead of

629
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 1: beating around and trying to look at a million different projections,

630
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:49,199
Speaker 1: you can actually just look at ATC and kind of

631
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 1: get the bigger picture. So in that sense, yeah, it's

632
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 1: it's pretty good and actually, we just did a mock

633
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 1: draft show over on his pod. I was over there

634
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,200
Speaker 1: do a little mock draft action. Catch out that pod. Yes,

635
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 1: it was a good good time. Let's take a quick

636
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,080
Speaker 1: break in the action to tell you about fan Tracks,

637
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 1: the home of fantasy sports. If you're looking for year

638
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 1: round engagement, fan Tracks is your spot. Offseason trades, real

639
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 1: time updates, and seamless player transactions keep the excitement alive

640
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,200
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641
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643
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644
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645
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646
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647
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648
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649
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650
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653
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Speaker 1: up today at fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros. That's

654
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:03,840
Speaker 1: fan slash Fantasy Pros. And now back to the action.

655
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to some more players here. Let's

656
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 1: get some pitchers here that the projections hate. I'll start

657
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 1: with Corbyn Burns. New digs for him, Arizona, that's where

658
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 1: he wanted to be. Now, the Arizona Diamondbacks scored a

659
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 1: ton of runs last year in terms of ballpark environment.

660
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if you want to call

661
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 1: it a push. I'm not sure where your head's at.

662
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 1: But Joe Cordin Burns started off really well. The second

663
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 1: half wasn't quite as good as the first half, but

664
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 1: you know, Cortin Burn's been a very steady pitcher for

665
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 1: a while. How Well, However, I would say he is

666
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 1: not a guy that, if you dial back to three

667
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 1: years ago, has been quite as dominant. Maybe those numbers

668
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 1: were unsustainable. What are the projections tell you about him

669
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:41,640
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five?

670
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, Colbyn Burns was brilliant and I think he's still

671
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 2: a really good pitcher. But I think he's just a

672
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 2: little bit Pricey, and I think the projections tend to

673
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 2: agree on that. By ADP, he is the ninth pitcher

674
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 2: off the board and Emmanuel Classe is ahead of him,

675
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 2: So that's actually the eighth starting pitcher let me go

676
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 2: to let me just or by starting pitchers, so was

677
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 2: the eighth starting pitcher by ADP, and in terms of

678
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 2: the dollar value projected thirteenth he's projected below Logan Web below,

679
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 2: Yamamoto below, Snell, Framber, Valdez. I think a lot of

680
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 2: it comes down to the three fifty five projected era

681
00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 2: and the fact that he's not projected for a strikeout

682
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 2: per inning. Corbyn Burns at times in his career has

683
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,239
Speaker 2: been a thirty five percent strikeout rate guy. He had

684
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 2: two hundred and forty three strikeouts in twenty twenty two.

685
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 2: Last season, in one hundred and ninety four innings, he

686
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 2: just had one hundred and eighty one. And if you

687
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 2: look progressively every year from thirty five percent to thirty

688
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 2: to twenty five to twenty three, he's lost ticks on

689
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 2: the strikeout rate every single year. The phips are still

690
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 2: very good, but they're not what they were in twenty

691
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 2: one and twenty two. They're and like in the mid

692
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 2: threes when he was in the mid twoes. I think

693
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 2: that the ballpark is interesting. It's not a terribly hit

694
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:48,240
Speaker 2: or friendly park. It actually is pretty bad for left

695
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 2: handed power. So I don't think the park is a

696
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 2: big thing for me. Really. It's just that I don't

697
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 2: know what I'm getting in terms of strikeouts and era

698
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 2: from Corbyn Burns. It might be in that three six,

699
00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 2: three seven range. And if I'm taking a starter in

700
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 2: the third round, is my that's a little bit dicey

701
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 2: for me. If he's not even gonna give me a strikeout, perinting,

702
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:06,480
Speaker 2: I think that's a little bit of a a little

703
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 2: bit too much meat a stomach in the third round.

704
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 1: I agree, I would rather have Crochet Sale, Reagan Cease,

705
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 1: probably Snell all over Burns. To be honest with you,

706
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 1: I love Snell this year with the Dodgers. I think

707
00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 1: he is the safest guy. That team's gonna win one

708
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 1: hundred games just by accident. So that's why I'd go.

709
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 1: Also some fun things in the chat. Wonky Penguin is

710
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:31,080
Speaker 1: a Cubs Vikings fan because her dad thought that overcoming

711
00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 1: difficult challenges was an important part of her childhood. It's

712
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 1: built character for you, Wonky Penguin. Here's another one, Tyler,

713
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:39,920
Speaker 1: I'm a Blue Jays an Argonauts fan. Does that count?

714
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 2: Go ahead, arguts? This might be the first CFL reference

715
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 2: ever on the Fantasy Pros Baseball podcast. It might be.

716
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 1: I thought that would make you happy. Yeah, you're You're

717
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 1: a good, red blooded Canadian. They're the only teams.

718
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:52,720
Speaker 2: That's won a championship in Toronto in the last twenty

719
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 2: or thirty years.

720
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 1: I like, here's one from Sir Tray. Hey, guys, fun

721
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 1: watching you on Twitter, trying to decide my keeper's ten

722
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 1: team head to head Agoria is they have to drop

723
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 1: two Otani Caminaro, Churio, Cruz Diaz and Tanner Scott to

724
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 1: drop two. This is easy. Uh, it's gonna be Daz

725
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 1: for me and Scott. I mean, that's it. Yeah, closers

726
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 1: are replaceable. This is the easiest question we're gonna have

727
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 1: all year, Joe, Right, you got anything to add there?

728
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 2: Tanner Scott, Like, I think he'll probably get the majority

729
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 2: of the saves, but that's a pretty strong Pano in

730
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 2: Los Angeles. He might get seventeen saves this year or

731
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 2: something like that. It could be twenty eight.

732
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 1: But some managers don't like using lefties and saved situations.

733
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 1: I like to save them for that big spot. Like

734
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 1: I'm just saying it's historically something the managers do. Not

735
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 1: everybody's Billy Wagner necessarily, But I'm telling you right now,

736
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 1: just watch it might be more complicated. You think that's

737
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 1: a no brainer. Those are two easy drops you're gonna crush.

738
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 1: It's a great team. Let's do another picture here, Hunter

739
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 1: Brown awful, awful April, but man, after that, awfully good.

740
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:54,959
Speaker 1: Now I understand, you know, we have to bake into

741
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 1: some of the bad Hunter Brown in the projections, but

742
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 1: I want to be more up. S'simistic when it comes

743
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 1: to Hunter Brown. Why are some of the projections looking pessimistic?

744
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 2: So the thing that stands out from the projections, he

745
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:11,240
Speaker 2: has a top one hundred ADP, but he is as

746
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:15,560
Speaker 2: the forty first starting pitcher in terms of ADP. That's

747
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 2: that's a little bit high, I think, just based on

748
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 2: the projected whip at one twenty five, the projected era

749
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 2: at three seventy five. Like, if he's giving you a

750
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 2: one to twenty five whip over one hundred and seventy innings.

751
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 2: It's not great. It's not really helping you a high

752
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 2: three's era a lot of the time, especially in a

753
00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 2: deeper league. Brown is going to be your SP three.

754
00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 2: Maybe if you're really pushing it, he could be your

755
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 2: SP two. I just think that there's a lot of

756
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 2: risk there. Like Houston's still a good team, but they're

757
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:43,160
Speaker 2: not quite as good as they were. I think losing Kyle,

758
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 2: Tucker and Bregman is a big loss. Replacing them with

759
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 2: Walker and Parides definitely helps, but are they going to

760
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 2: be quite as good. Probably not. I think you can

761
00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 2: maybe shave a win or two off of Brown's projections,

762
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 2: and I think that era is probably going to be

763
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:58,480
Speaker 2: somewhere in like the mid to high threes. So I

764
00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 2: don't know. I think he's a good source of strikeout, but

765
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:03,719
Speaker 2: he's kind of just not somebody that knocks my socks

766
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 2: off this season. I've drafted him once or twice, but

767
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:07,840
Speaker 2: I don't know. I think you can do better in

768
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 2: that top one hundred ADP range.

769
00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:12,400
Speaker 1: I still like Hunter Brown. I think he was so

770
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 1: good down the stretch. I'm just buying. I'm gonna buy

771
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 1: in a Hunter Brown. The team will still be very competitive,

772
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 1: I think losing Tucker and Bregman takes a big hit

773
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:24,880
Speaker 1: there for Houston, and I don't know if Paritis is

774
00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:28,719
Speaker 1: enough to take that back. But look at some of

775
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 1: the pitchers going in that same range. Grayson Rodriguez, I

776
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:34,880
Speaker 1: would take over him. Rokie Sazaki and Hunter Brown are

777
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 1: very close to me. But Zach Gallen I would take

778
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 1: over either. Do you agree or disagree?

779
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:42,320
Speaker 2: Grayson's a little dicey right now with this whole lat situation.

780
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 2: I'm not sure what to make of.

781
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 1: Lats and Obliques. That's all spring trainings about Joe Lots

782
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:47,720
Speaker 1: and Obliques.

783
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:50,960
Speaker 2: Who are the other guys that you said besides him?

784
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 1: The other guys in the similar adp Freddy Peralta, Grayson Rodriguez,

785
00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:57,880
Speaker 1: Roki Sazaki, Hunter Brown, Zach Gowen.

786
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 2: That's sure like I'm taking I'm personally taking all of

787
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:03,319
Speaker 2: them over Brown. I think maybe not t Sazaki because

788
00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 2: Azaki is going to get on the hype train with

789
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 2: these with these crazy splitters I'm seeing on the timeline,

790
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:10,399
Speaker 2: and his price is going to shoot up. I think

791
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 2: I'm taking most of the over. I think I'm more

792
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:13,440
Speaker 2: of a fade on Brown this year. I'm coming to

793
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:16,440
Speaker 2: realize yeah.

794
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:19,319
Speaker 1: I can understand. All right, let's get to another pitcher here.

795
00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:23,480
Speaker 1: Hunter Green massive strikeout potential, could certainly lead the National

796
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:25,919
Speaker 1: League in strikeouts. I think even with Paul Skeens being

797
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:29,239
Speaker 1: there and Hunter Green starting to get the home runs

798
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 1: under control, starting to figure things out, it's kind of

799
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 1: been a low, slow road for him. And it feels

800
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:38,759
Speaker 1: like Hunter Green is, you know, I think a twenty

801
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:41,240
Speaker 1: twenty four when you look back, really putting the pieces together,

802
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:43,879
Speaker 1: not just trying to throw the ball, but really trying

803
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 1: to pitch a little bit more and starting to I think,

804
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:50,319
Speaker 1: find the outs and lineups, do the things that better

805
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:52,359
Speaker 1: pitchers do instead of just trying to blow everybody away

806
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:55,919
Speaker 1: and strike out everybody. However, the strikeout totals are extremely high,

807
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 1: and that is something we look for in fantasy. But

808
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 1: when you're digging into the numbers and rejections for twenty

809
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 1: twenty five, what did you see about Hunter Green?

810
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:04,440
Speaker 2: Well, we got hundred brown, Hunter Green, and then up

811
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:08,600
Speaker 2: next Hunter Blue on our projections. So when I'm taking

812
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 2: a look at his numb.

813
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:12,799
Speaker 1: Sounds like a reservoir dogs kind of thing situation here.

814
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 2: Steve Buscemi's gonna walk through the door any minute.

815
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:17,640
Speaker 1: Why, mister pink.

816
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 2: So the thing with Hunter Green, I think is the

817
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 2: ballpark a lot of the time that scares people. It

818
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:26,200
Speaker 2: scares me a little bit. If you are starting him

819
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 2: in Cincinnati, you never really know what's going to happen.

820
00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:30,960
Speaker 2: He has historically had a bit of a home run problem.

821
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 2: Last year that seemed to be curved a little bit,

822
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 2: But I'm not really sure what the real version of

823
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:36,919
Speaker 2: him is. Like his first two years homer to fly

824
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 2: ball sixteen percent, fourteen percent. Those are well above league gaverage,

825
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 2: and then last year he went down to seven percent,

826
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 2: which is below league gaverage. So is he somewhere in

827
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 2: the middle layer? Probably you can split the difference. But

828
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 2: I think you can also split the difference on a

829
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:50,879
Speaker 2: lot of the numbers from twenty three to twenty four,

830
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 2: Like is he a four e two era? No? But

831
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 2: is he a two seven five era in that ballpark

832
00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:59,200
Speaker 2: with his command? I don't know, honestly. Like the whip

833
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 2: went from one four two two to one zero two.

834
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:03,360
Speaker 2: Like the way I'm approaching hundred, I was, what does

835
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 2: one hunder brown? The way am approaching hundred Green this

836
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 2: year is I'm kind of splitting the difference from his

837
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 2: twenty three to twenty four stats, which seems kind of

838
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 2: what the projections are doing. If he's giving you what

839
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:14,200
Speaker 2: ATC's calling for, which is a three to nine ERA

840
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:17,440
Speaker 2: and a one one seven whip, you can live with it.

841
00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:20,040
Speaker 2: But as a top one hundred pick, I don't know

842
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:22,160
Speaker 2: that you're gonna love it. Like he is projected in

843
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:24,799
Speaker 2: the same value range as Chris Sanchez, who's going about

844
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 2: one hundred picks later or about eighty ninety picks later.

845
00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 2: Same as Gosman, same as Rodan, Nate E Evaldi. These

846
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 2: guys are all projected right around the same dollar value.

847
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 2: Flynn Rodriguez, Galen Rinaldo, Lopez, all these guys are projected

848
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 2: right in the same range. And I think without having

849
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:40,960
Speaker 2: to worry about Great American Ballpark, they might be a

850
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:41,800
Speaker 2: little bit safer.

851
00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:45,359
Speaker 1: There's no way I'm taking Ronaldo Lopez over hundred Green.

852
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:46,400
Speaker 1: I'm just not doing it.

853
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:46,839
Speaker 3: That's fair.

854
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:49,399
Speaker 1: I just I get it. It was a good year last

855
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:53,320
Speaker 1: year for Lopez converting. I get it. It was solid.

856
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:55,399
Speaker 1: It was the story that kept on going to we're

857
00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:56,719
Speaker 1: waiting for it to end. It did not. I'm not

858
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 1: saying Lopez can't be good. But I want the upside

859
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:02,120
Speaker 1: of a Green and that strikeout potential. So there's an

860
00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:03,839
Speaker 1: opportunity with some of the guys we're talking about. Maybe

861
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:06,439
Speaker 1: the projections don't like where some of the sharper people

862
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 1: in your leagues might start to fade away from some

863
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:10,839
Speaker 1: of these people. If people are fading away from Hunter Green,

864
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 1: I'm taking them and I'm taking that strike out upside

865
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 1: along with it. Now he's only made twenty six starts.

866
00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:18,120
Speaker 1: That's the career high last year. That also has to

867
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:20,960
Speaker 1: enter into your psyche when you're evaluating players. But at

868
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:24,280
Speaker 1: his age right now, he's gonna be turning twenty five. Look,

869
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 1: I'm in on Hunter Green. I love the upside, and

870
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 1: I think that Cincinnati Red's team it's gonna be a

871
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 1: very good, very athletic team there. You're gonna have a

872
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 1: lot of positives in Ladolo and singer pitch well, they're

873
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:37,879
Speaker 1: gonna compete for that division. They're definitely gonna compete. Two

874
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:41,239
Speaker 1: more pitchers to talk about here, Let's go to Jared Jones. Now,

875
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 1: we had Nick Pollock on the show. If you missed it,

876
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:45,400
Speaker 1: go watch on our YouTube channel. Jared Jones one of

877
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:47,439
Speaker 1: the guys he absolutely loves. He had a red hot

878
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:50,840
Speaker 1: start to the season, kind of the inverse of Hunter Brown,

879
00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:53,239
Speaker 1: and then of course some injuries happened and the rest

880
00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 1: was history. So kind of an incomplete downward spiral there

881
00:38:57,640 --> 00:39:00,600
Speaker 1: for Jared Jones in the second half. But it's a

882
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:02,839
Speaker 1: new year, yes it is, So where are we going

883
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:06,359
Speaker 1: with Jared Jones this year? With the projections Joe, So.

884
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 2: He's kind of a hard evel just because of how

885
00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 2: things fell off for him in the second half of

886
00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:13,239
Speaker 2: the season. Like you alluded to, first half was a

887
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 2: three fifty six ERA second half he did miss a

888
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 2: big chunk of time as well, but five eighty seven

889
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:20,759
Speaker 2: ERA in the second half he was getting crushed, and

890
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:22,600
Speaker 2: I think the projections are kind of looking into that.

891
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:24,839
Speaker 2: There's also not a ton of data because he's only

892
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 2: pitched a one season when there is not as much

893
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:29,120
Speaker 2: to look back on. Projections do have a bit of

894
00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:32,000
Speaker 2: a harder time, But he is projected as the number

895
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:35,440
Speaker 2: sixty starting pitcher with a five dollars value, maybe they

896
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:38,240
Speaker 2: call it a six dollar value in twelve team leagues,

897
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:42,000
Speaker 2: behind Robby Ray, behind Ranger Suarez, behind your guy, Seth Lugo,

898
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:45,439
Speaker 2: standyel Contratadge Bradley. These guys are all going well after

899
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 2: him in drafts and they're all projected right around the

900
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 2: same range. I think that there is some concern the

901
00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:55,800
Speaker 2: team stinks, like the team at the front office in Pittsburgh.

902
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:57,440
Speaker 2: I don't know what they've done here. You got a

903
00:39:57,440 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 2: healthy policy teams, you have an ostensibly healthy Jared je

904
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:03,320
Speaker 2: Ownes right now. Your window to compete is open, Tommy

905
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:03,799
Speaker 2: Fans and.

906
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:07,280
Speaker 1: The division's week. It's not a strong division either. There's

907
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 1: no way if you added a big batter two this offseason.

908
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:13,440
Speaker 1: But they didn't do it. And why they don't go

909
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:15,360
Speaker 1: to a team like the Orioles as a glut of

910
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:17,759
Speaker 1: position player prospects. I keep saying this and make a

911
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:19,799
Speaker 1: deal with them. I don't understand. If you've got all

912
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 1: these pitching prospects, there's only five spots in the rotation

913
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 1: trade one of these guys, the Orioles are desperate for pitching.

914
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:28,520
Speaker 1: Their average age of pitcher is what now between Charlie

915
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:30,680
Speaker 1: Morton and Segano and those I mean it is not young.

916
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:32,879
Speaker 1: I don't understand what they're thinking.

917
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:35,880
Speaker 2: They're Joe, and if you look at the Pirates lineup,

918
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:38,080
Speaker 2: they have a thirty seven year old Tommy Fan projected

919
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 2: a lead off and a thirty eight year old Andrew

920
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:42,319
Speaker 2: McCutchen going to be cleaning up for them. It's a

921
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:44,840
Speaker 2: problem huge like that. That is a problematic offense. If

922
00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:47,600
Speaker 2: Jared Jones won seven games this year or eight games

923
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 2: this year, I don't think anybody should be surprised by that.

924
00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:52,799
Speaker 2: The projected numbers are pretty good. But at the same time,

925
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:55,440
Speaker 2: a three ninety four era, a one to twenty two

926
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:59,319
Speaker 2: whip about a strikeout printing. It's fine. But if I

927
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:02,320
Speaker 2: can get the same value in Robbie, Ray Lugo, Al Contra,

928
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:05,279
Speaker 2: Nester Cortes, Ryan Pepio, all these guys who are going

929
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:08,319
Speaker 2: later that have better projections, I just don't really see

930
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:10,959
Speaker 2: the need to take a risky shot on Jared Jones.

931
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:12,960
Speaker 2: I still like him, like Dynasty Leagues, I'd still be

932
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 2: buying into him, but I think there's a lot of

933
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:16,600
Speaker 2: risk in twenty twenty five.

934
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 1: Last guy on the list Shane Bose of the Tampa

935
00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:21,320
Speaker 1: Bay Rays. Now look, Boz is a young picture with

936
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,120
Speaker 1: a lot of upside. Problem is in Paulock and I

937
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:26,279
Speaker 1: were talking about this on the last show on the

938
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:31,280
Speaker 1: Number two Pitching Guide, we were talking about Lttel having

939
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:34,840
Speaker 1: no options left and that could hurt bos or Pepio

940
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 1: potentially in this rotation. I know Eno on the show

941
00:41:37,040 --> 00:41:40,239
Speaker 1: that you guys did was talking about you know, Ryan

942
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 1: Pepio very glowingly. So is Shane bos looking a situation

943
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:46,479
Speaker 1: where he could be a little Maybe he's the odd

944
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:48,360
Speaker 1: man out of this rotation at least to start?

945
00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 2: Oh man, I hope not. That would be devastating because

946
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:54,880
Speaker 2: as much as I think the projections are down on

947
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:57,799
Speaker 2: Shane Boss, I still really like him. I think that

948
00:41:57,880 --> 00:42:00,280
Speaker 2: he is now finally in a situation where he's he healthy,

949
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:04,920
Speaker 2: he should have a chance, like the rotation should be McLanahan, Bradley, Papio,

950
00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:07,839
Speaker 2: probably Boz and Rasmussen. And I guess the Lttel question

951
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:09,840
Speaker 2: is behind Maybe they make him a long reliever or

952
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:12,239
Speaker 2: something like that, or maybe Rasmussen stays in the pen

953
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 2: because he's not terribly stretched out at the moment. There

954
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:16,840
Speaker 2: are some questions I guess as to how they're going

955
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:19,160
Speaker 2: to assemble the rotation, but I don't think Shane BoSz

956
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:22,279
Speaker 2: should be in jeopardy. That being said, the projections are

957
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:24,240
Speaker 2: not great on him, one hundred and thirty eight innings,

958
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:27,480
Speaker 2: which is not great in terms of volume, a four

959
00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 2: h five ERA, a one to twenty four whip and

960
00:42:30,160 --> 00:42:33,080
Speaker 2: fewer than strikeout printing. The strikeouts I think are are

961
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:35,960
Speaker 2: misprojected there. I think that he is somebody that was

962
00:42:36,000 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 2: working his way back from a major surgery. The strikeout

963
00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:41,799
Speaker 2: rate wasn't what it was pre surgery, but over the

964
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 2: fourteen starts he still had very good results. He the

965
00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:46,520
Speaker 2: three zero six ERA and a one zero six whip.

966
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:48,279
Speaker 2: I think the strikeouts will come back. This is a

967
00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:50,840
Speaker 2: guy who had a thirty six percent strikeout rate in

968
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:52,880
Speaker 2: his first touch of major League baseball, and then the

969
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:55,360
Speaker 2: next year it was twenty six percent. Like, the strikeouts

970
00:42:55,360 --> 00:42:58,760
Speaker 2: are legit. The stuff is very very legit. With Shane Bozz,

971
00:42:59,480 --> 00:43:01,160
Speaker 2: I think that this is a year where he can

972
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:03,719
Speaker 2: defy the projections. But I think we have to at

973
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:06,960
Speaker 2: least give them some We have to at least acknowledge them,

974
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:10,720
Speaker 2: especially considering the ballpark downgrade in terms of the pitchers

975
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:12,960
Speaker 2: that are going to be headed there too. Essentially, what

976
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:14,920
Speaker 2: is Yankee Stadium hot Yankee Stadium?

977
00:43:15,600 --> 00:43:17,800
Speaker 1: I like that, or humid to Yankee Stadium? Maybe we

978
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:20,799
Speaker 1: call it that some great stuff there. Obviously, when you're

979
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:22,279
Speaker 1: looking at some of these projections, you see them on

980
00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 1: the player profiles here at Fantasypros dot com, So make

981
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 1: sure you head over there. Joe's done some amazing work

982
00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:30,560
Speaker 1: to bring us these names today. And of course, if

983
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:32,440
Speaker 1: you're watching on demand on our YouTube channel, who are

984
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:35,600
Speaker 1: the players that you're possibly fading in twenty twenty five?

985
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 1: I want you to drop those names below, subscribe to

986
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:39,919
Speaker 1: the YouTube channel. We're trying to get to twenty five

987
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 1: thousand before opening day. We can do it. I believe

988
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:45,160
Speaker 1: in us. And for those people who are saying, hey,

989
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:47,120
Speaker 1: how do I hang out and watch you guys interact

990
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:49,439
Speaker 1: just like everybody in the chat today, well you could

991
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:52,200
Speaker 1: do that over at twitch dot tv slash Fantasy Pros.

992
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:54,279
Speaker 1: So go head over there because that's where leading off

993
00:43:54,320 --> 00:43:57,840
Speaker 1: is going to be. And don't forget Wednesday, March twelfth,

994
00:43:57,880 --> 00:44:00,520
Speaker 1: it's all going down baby. We're gonna be here on

995
00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:04,279
Speaker 1: our YouTube channel doing the Fantasy Fest yet again. Four

996
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 1: hours of Fantasy Baseball for you, live, incredible guests, incredible insight.

997
00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:12,360
Speaker 1: It's your one stop shop to make sure you get prepared,

998
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:15,480
Speaker 1: and maybe you haven't been prepared enough for your drafts. Well,

999
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:17,640
Speaker 1: we're gonna help you, so get ready with us at

1000
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:19,359
Speaker 1: the Fantasy Fest And of course you can watch it back,

1001
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:22,400
Speaker 1: but you can join us live three pm Eastern March twelfth,

1002
00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:26,239
Speaker 1: Wednesday on our YouTube channel Subscribe today. That'll do it

1003
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:28,440
Speaker 1: for us here, but the story of the game goes

1004
00:44:28,440 --> 00:44:31,120
Speaker 1: on for Joe Rico, I'm Joey P. We'll see you

1005
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:31,960
Speaker 1: next time. Kids.

1006
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:35,640
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1007
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:38,240
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1010
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