WEBVTT - Surveillance: Election Interference with Stravidis 0:00:09.880 --> 0:00:13.840 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Jay Leye. 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:17.560 We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.520 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:27.240 Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the Bloomberg Mike 0:00:27.280 --> 0:00:30.080 Pile joining us now black Rock Investment Institute Global Chief 0:00:30.120 --> 0:00:32.880 Investment Strategist, might fantastic to catch up with you, sir. 0:00:33.360 --> 0:00:36.199 The guide for you does it market participants, stay up 0:00:36.240 --> 0:00:38.760 and watch this debate, trade on it, off the back 0:00:38.760 --> 0:00:40.800 of it, based on who you think one. How do 0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:44.839 you go through this? Mike? What's the process? So one 0:00:44.880 --> 0:00:48.040 of the things we've been saying throughout the election season 0:00:48.240 --> 0:00:51.960 is just how stable the polls have been, even in 0:00:52.000 --> 0:00:56.640 the face of obviously historic events in in the United States. 0:00:56.960 --> 0:00:58.920 And so I think, as it relates to your question, 0:00:59.360 --> 0:01:01.680 you know, yes, you know, insofar as it's one of 0:01:01.720 --> 0:01:05.679 the last big events before the presidential election, it could matter. 0:01:05.959 --> 0:01:09.480 But our basic thesis is that that this race continues 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:12.080 to look awfly stable on Our advice to investors is, 0:01:12.520 --> 0:01:16.960 you know, look through any volatility that the race itself generates, 0:01:17.200 --> 0:01:19.400 look to the long term, look to the fundamentals and 0:01:19.600 --> 0:01:22.559 add to high conviction positions if you do see that volatility. 0:01:22.720 --> 0:01:25.520 Mike Powel, you were weaned on blanch Flower economics at 0:01:25.600 --> 0:01:28.959 Dartmouth College and just a simple idea of wage dynamics 0:01:28.959 --> 0:01:32.280 and the separation of societies, which which is known and 0:01:32.319 --> 0:01:34.320 not only what Danny Blanche Follower has done, but others 0:01:34.319 --> 0:01:38.320 at Dartmouth economics. How divided is this nation now? And 0:01:38.360 --> 0:01:43.280 what does it mean for investors? So, you know, I'd 0:01:43.280 --> 0:01:46.280 say the nation, you know, does look divided across a 0:01:46.319 --> 0:01:51.480 couple of dimensions. Obviously the political polar polarization as historic highs. 0:01:51.520 --> 0:01:53.880 But I think as well, when we talk about economics, 0:01:53.880 --> 0:01:56.600 when we talk about markets, you know, I know we've 0:01:56.600 --> 0:01:58.720 talked a lot about the k shape nature of the 0:01:58.840 --> 0:02:01.480 recovery and that agree to which you know, even an 0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:04.240 aggregate as the economy is surprised to the upside, that's 0:02:04.280 --> 0:02:07.200 a much different experience for people in different parts of 0:02:07.200 --> 0:02:09.760 this economy. And I think that's why as we look ahead, 0:02:10.080 --> 0:02:12.639 you know, this question is you've raised around fiscal stimulus, 0:02:12.639 --> 0:02:15.200 this question of is the is the recovery going to 0:02:15.280 --> 0:02:17.320 become more sustained? Is going to be an awful big 0:02:17.320 --> 0:02:20.480 part of a market narrative as we go into Micha, 0:02:20.520 --> 0:02:22.679 A lot of people are believing in this yield curve 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:26.240 steepening story, higher longer term yields based on this idea 0:02:26.280 --> 0:02:28.600 that we will get some sort of fiscal support bill, 0:02:28.960 --> 0:02:32.360 perhaps this year, definitely next year. How high contenure yields 0:02:32.360 --> 0:02:36.480 really rise before the Fed steps in? We think this 0:02:36.600 --> 0:02:40.239 is a huge issue. Uh And I would say, are 0:02:40.360 --> 0:02:42.360 are do you want it as a perhaps a little 0:02:42.360 --> 0:02:44.640 distinct I mean, I think we heard from Governor Brainerd 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:48.440 yesterday that the Fed intends to act along the entire 0:02:48.480 --> 0:02:51.280 yield curve. We see that as a as a signal 0:02:51.360 --> 0:02:53.760 of of exactly that the Fed is going to be 0:02:54.080 --> 0:02:58.400 pretty closely watching the nominal curve and not allowing a 0:02:58.440 --> 0:03:01.519 tremendous amount of steepening to us. The kind of more 0:03:01.560 --> 0:03:06.240 compelling reflation dynamic is to expect to see the nominal 0:03:06.280 --> 0:03:09.480 curve stay more or less stable to a little higher, 0:03:09.480 --> 0:03:12.920 but but real rates tips to rally even more considerably, 0:03:13.200 --> 0:03:15.560 so real rates even more negative, and that has pretty 0:03:15.560 --> 0:03:19.640 important implications for the dollar risk assets globally. So we 0:03:19.639 --> 0:03:23.280 think that's the really important dynamic here. Well, make that 0:03:23.360 --> 0:03:27.079 makes it profoundly difficult to earn financials, and it makes 0:03:27.080 --> 0:03:30.000 it even easier to stick with what's working right now. 0:03:30.080 --> 0:03:31.520 What do you say back to the people that are 0:03:31.560 --> 0:03:36.200 talking up the rotation in the equity market in America? 0:03:36.680 --> 0:03:38.840 So I'd say two things. And I think we have 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:41.360 been talking about a type of rotation the market that 0:03:41.320 --> 0:03:45.640 it's been less growth to value and more large too small. 0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:49.240 We do think that the growth dynamics that are reflationary, 0:03:49.280 --> 0:03:52.040 fiscal stimulus type path could put in could bring about 0:03:52.120 --> 0:03:55.320 that type of rotation. But agree with you that you know, 0:03:55.400 --> 0:03:58.360 in a world where we see real rates lower, when 0:03:58.400 --> 0:04:02.200 we see the path of of the dollar potentially lower 0:04:02.200 --> 0:04:05.680 as well, that's also a pretty attractive world for for 0:04:06.560 --> 0:04:09.840 equities outside the United States risk assets outside the United States, 0:04:09.840 --> 0:04:13.119 including places like emerging markets. So I'm looking right now. 0:04:13.360 --> 0:04:16.680 The low of negative real yields for ten year treasuries, 0:04:16.720 --> 0:04:19.080 in other words, amount of money are losing to invest 0:04:19.200 --> 0:04:21.960 in longer term treasuries based on the rate of inflation, 0:04:22.839 --> 0:04:26.720 hit a record negative point one one percent in September. 0:04:26.880 --> 0:04:31.320 How low could this go? I don't want to put 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:33.680 any precise numbers on it, but I do think the 0:04:33.680 --> 0:04:37.200 important point is if you look at um places that 0:04:37.240 --> 0:04:42.400 have combined kind of significant ongoing monetary accommodation plus fiscal policy, 0:04:42.839 --> 0:04:45.400 that the place where that has really manifested itself as 0:04:45.440 --> 0:04:47.120 in is in real rates. I mean, this is what 0:04:47.200 --> 0:04:49.560 we saw in Japan, this is what we've seen in 0:04:49.600 --> 0:04:52.520 other places that have brought this combination to bear. And 0:04:52.560 --> 0:04:56.080 I think that's where we see the pressure from those 0:04:56.120 --> 0:04:59.920 two forces coming together in policy really manifesting itself and market. 0:05:01.520 --> 0:05:04.200 My pile from black Rock, Mike just fantastic to catch 0:05:04.240 --> 0:05:10.359 up as always joining us from the black Rock Investment Institute. 0:05:11.360 --> 0:05:13.760 Jeffrey h is with v and White Melon. He is 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:18.400 a senior strategist in is wonderfully eclectic about linking foreign 0:05:18.400 --> 0:05:22.120 exchange dynamics into everything else that's out there. We're thrilly 0:05:22.120 --> 0:05:24.320 could join us right now, Jeff, I want to talk 0:05:24.320 --> 0:05:28.159 about the persistent stronger n men be the Chinese you want. 0:05:28.640 --> 0:05:31.400 Is that managed by Beijing or is that the market 0:05:31.480 --> 0:05:35.279 speaking a bit of both it right now? So Beijing 0:05:35.360 --> 0:05:37.760 is managing it less. I think that that's been clear 0:05:37.960 --> 0:05:39.880 for the market to see. For the market now is 0:05:39.880 --> 0:05:42.279 trying to be okay, You're not managing it Let's see 0:05:42.279 --> 0:05:44.839 how far we can push them then be stronger before 0:05:44.880 --> 0:05:47.159 you actually start to want to manage it a bit 0:05:47.200 --> 0:05:50.080 more because this is getting uncomfortable for China, race is 0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:53.080 still quite high if you look at whether mon curvid. 0:05:53.520 --> 0:05:56.120 I'm sure though there are some no big activities in 0:05:56.520 --> 0:05:58.400 some of the mestic I t O market coming through. 0:05:58.640 --> 0:06:00.280 But at the end of the day, you know, one 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:03.560 strong spot has been exports, right, but a stronger currency 0:06:03.600 --> 0:06:05.680 that coupee into exports. So the market is going to 0:06:05.680 --> 0:06:09.120 be testing the PDOC tolerance up ahead. How does remembering 0:06:09.240 --> 0:06:13.440 diffused leak if you will, to the other currencies of 0:06:13.480 --> 0:06:17.840 the Pacific RIM and indeed over the US dollar. Well, 0:06:17.839 --> 0:06:20.279 there's two ways this can happen. One positive one paths 0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:23.520 less positive. The positive side is stronger than be stronger 0:06:23.560 --> 0:06:26.640 persons in power for Chinese, you know, the fable Chinese 0:06:26.640 --> 0:06:29.880 consumer that the world desperately needs to come through. Then 0:06:29.960 --> 0:06:32.480 they have more personal power they can spend and lift 0:06:32.600 --> 0:06:36.679 the economy around them. However, you know, if China actually 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:38.960 starts to get worried about this and start the pushback 0:06:39.200 --> 0:06:42.599 starts to intervene, then career Japan, Taiwan, they're going to 0:06:42.600 --> 0:06:45.680 get nervous as well. We don't want to localized currency war. 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:47.320 But for the time being, I think they're going to 0:06:47.400 --> 0:06:50.320 be given everyone else a lot of space, especially career. 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:52.599 You know, that's one where I think the market is 0:06:52.640 --> 0:06:56.080 quite fond of as well. So Jeffrey comes down to tolerance. 0:06:56.120 --> 0:06:59.719 Let's talk about levels dollar China. Right now. We saw 0:06:59.760 --> 0:07:02.479 six sixty four earlier in the session. What kind of 0:07:02.560 --> 0:07:06.240 level do you have in mind? Well, I think when 0:07:06.240 --> 0:07:08.360 we get to say, you six fifty, you know that 0:07:08.440 --> 0:07:10.440 kind of the level of the PDOC may need to 0:07:10.440 --> 0:07:12.360 take a double taper. Let's go back to two thousand 0:07:12.400 --> 0:07:15.000 and fourteen, two thousand and fifty, when did the p 0:07:15.080 --> 0:07:17.920 BOC really start to talk down the room and be well, 0:07:17.960 --> 0:07:20.920 talk about it being quote que valued. You know that 0:07:21.200 --> 0:07:24.200 is the key phrase from kago Is now the governor. There. 0:07:24.320 --> 0:07:26.360 We were heading towards in the six ten. People were 0:07:26.360 --> 0:07:29.000 talking about it breaking six and heading into five. Nowhere 0:07:29.040 --> 0:07:32.720 near there yet. All the PBSC leadership, though they were 0:07:32.720 --> 0:07:35.160 on the wires yesterday, no one uttered a single to 0:07:35.240 --> 0:07:37.360 the what about the rim be So it's telling you 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:39.640 these levels right now, they're happy with it to continue 0:07:39.640 --> 0:07:43.040 to advance down to six fifty. Then Jeff, let's build 0:07:43.040 --> 0:07:46.200 on this the derivatives of this trade stronger China, stronger currency. 0:07:46.440 --> 0:07:48.280 People have been loading up on copper bit and up 0:07:48.280 --> 0:07:50.880 the copper price out of those trades have been attached 0:07:50.880 --> 0:07:53.640 to that stronger Chinese currency. What do you things vulnerable 0:07:53.640 --> 0:07:57.200 at the moment, Jeff, So from a positioning point, See, 0:07:57.320 --> 0:08:00.440 we've already seen the oddie adjust a bit, right, so 0:08:00.720 --> 0:08:04.200 but for copper, so for Chillian testossie dollar. I actually 0:08:04.200 --> 0:08:06.880 think in particular BOSSI is not that vulnerable. I would 0:08:06.960 --> 0:08:09.040 like it to actually move forward a bit after the 0:08:09.160 --> 0:08:11.600 rb A figures out its policy path. If you are 0:08:11.600 --> 0:08:14.560 an oil related currency, I think that's where you don't 0:08:14.560 --> 0:08:17.360 want to own the China beta because all the comments 0:08:17.360 --> 0:08:19.640 are repond the leadership next year, and then next week 0:08:19.640 --> 0:08:21.960 they announced the next five year fan China wants to 0:08:21.960 --> 0:08:24.559 go green, China wants to move away from fossil fields 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:27.640 as well, go for early carbon neutrality and then start 0:08:27.720 --> 0:08:30.440 to shrink its carbon footprint. So that isn't really a 0:08:30.480 --> 0:08:32.520 good stories of possile field. So you saw go along 0:08:32.559 --> 0:08:36.280 iron or you go those proxies um for oil and 0:08:36.400 --> 0:08:38.560 energy and the rest. I'm not so sure Okay, So 0:08:38.600 --> 0:08:40.959 the flip side of the strong un of the strong 0:08:41.080 --> 0:08:44.320 carper call is the week dollar a call. What could 0:08:44.360 --> 0:08:47.880 potentially be the catalyst to further the weekend to further 0:08:47.920 --> 0:08:51.480 weaken the dollar from here, well, I think a massive 0:08:51.520 --> 0:08:55.440 reallocation story and we're talking mediums along with irrespective what 0:08:55.480 --> 0:08:57.920 happens to the election, I think that is in place 0:08:58.000 --> 0:09:00.079 in it right now. You look at the underlying it 0:09:00.320 --> 0:09:02.560 for Chinese government bonds, I mean, look at the yields 0:09:02.640 --> 0:09:05.600 right now at three uh a, three fifteen, three twenty 0:09:05.640 --> 0:09:08.080 on a head spaces it's some naturally you know, quite 0:09:08.080 --> 0:09:11.480 solid as well, let alone unheaged flow. So as long 0:09:11.520 --> 0:09:14.400 as China continues to grow and the rest of the 0:09:14.400 --> 0:09:17.480 world and the US underperforms on growth, I think that 0:09:17.600 --> 0:09:21.120 reallocation story into Chinese assets, into Asian assets, which is 0:09:21.120 --> 0:09:23.760 that performing, I think that will undermine the dollar. It's 0:09:23.760 --> 0:09:26.720 not the usual suspect. So markets want to be short 0:09:26.760 --> 0:09:29.520 dollars against that then and be Korean one. They're looking 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:32.240 at Taiwan dollar and the rest and against the euro 0:09:32.400 --> 0:09:34.280 sterling not so much right now, the kind of in 0:09:34.280 --> 0:09:36.160 the same vote. All right, in the short term though, 0:09:36.200 --> 0:09:40.040 there is the potential for underpricing a contested election, underpricing 0:09:40.360 --> 0:09:43.959 what servis Boras wants to Weinstein called critic chaos that 0:09:44.080 --> 0:09:47.880 he's predicting around the US election. Does the dollar strengthen 0:09:48.120 --> 0:09:51.960 in that type of scenario, um, so, volatility is going 0:09:52.000 --> 0:09:53.960 to speak heither and one of the drivers. But if 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:56.719 we go back to a March kind of scenario where 0:09:56.760 --> 0:10:00.960 market just scrambles the liquidity, then then probably it will 0:10:01.000 --> 0:10:03.760 be a dollar positive story. But having said that, all 0:10:03.840 --> 0:10:07.640 of the facilities established by the Federal Reserve in March, 0:10:07.800 --> 0:10:09.599 you know, they are still in placeful, they can be 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:12.760 reactivated very very quickly. Right, so I don't think it's 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:15.040 going to be as severe as we saw in March. 0:10:15.160 --> 0:10:17.319 And also just be wary of what you want to own. 0:10:17.360 --> 0:10:20.800 A dollar against dollar and downside dollar swift downside people 0:10:20.920 --> 0:10:23.280 might want to own those trades as well as election heades. 0:10:23.559 --> 0:10:26.200 How much is the U n strengthening on the heels 0:10:26.280 --> 0:10:28.880 of a Biden win, of the expectation that's being baked 0:10:29.080 --> 0:10:33.480 into markets. I don't think that is a catholics right now. 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:37.280 It's more on the China alone, its own economy, its 0:10:37.360 --> 0:10:41.360 own numbers are actually strengthening slow. And also you know, 0:10:41.480 --> 0:10:43.439 with the app allocation, with what's going on in the 0:10:43.480 --> 0:10:46.920 equity market, big text ideas coming up, and further opening 0:10:47.000 --> 0:10:50.560 of the bond market. It's that underlying institutional reallocation to China, 0:10:50.640 --> 0:10:52.719 which has actually been solding for some time now. And 0:10:52.800 --> 0:10:55.640 again I think that's music independently of the poles. Now, 0:10:55.840 --> 0:10:58.640 if the trade relationship there can be let's just say, 0:10:59.120 --> 0:11:02.080 less chaos over next years, that's going to be positive 0:11:02.120 --> 0:11:03.679 for China. But I think they'll be positive for the 0:11:03.800 --> 0:11:06.120 US in the world as well because gobal trade starts 0:11:06.160 --> 0:11:09.120 to normalize somewhat. So I don't see any inconsistencies. Would say, 0:11:09.160 --> 0:11:11.960 good US market and good Chinese market. But for now, 0:11:12.080 --> 0:11:15.480 I think it's a China standalone story. Jeff, find a 0:11:15.600 --> 0:11:17.679 question from me. You've always got a favorite trade, what 0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:21.280 is it right now? So you know right now again, 0:11:21.320 --> 0:11:23.480 I like the China proxies. I want to own Aussie, 0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:25.719 I want to own a Korean one. And on the 0:11:25.760 --> 0:11:28.840 other side, probably Sterling is my favorite funder right now. 0:11:28.960 --> 0:11:30.520 I think the BO he's got it wrong. I think 0:11:30.559 --> 0:11:32.480 they need to do a lot more upp ahead. What's 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:35.160 not announced today not enough. So I want to add 0:11:35.160 --> 0:11:39.040 to my Sterling Shorts, a salary Sterling buyer of the 0:11:39.160 --> 0:11:42.079 China proxies. Jeff Greater, catch up, sir, Jeff, you of 0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:47.240 b and y melon. Thank you. This is a joy. 0:11:47.880 --> 0:11:50.080 I said to the wonderful staff the other day. Can 0:11:50.120 --> 0:11:53.320 you dread the admiral down? And let's get him in there? 0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:57.439 And you know we found him. He's like, you know, 0:11:57.600 --> 0:12:03.000 he's pandemics. Oh. James Travinis joins us here before an election. 0:12:03.080 --> 0:12:05.760 We should point out that the last time around he 0:12:05.920 --> 0:12:09.360 was discussed as a vice president of vice presidential caliber 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:13.480 for Secretary Clinton. Were thrilled that he could join. Today. 0:12:14.280 --> 0:12:18.720 I am thunderstruck, Admiral Stravins by the lack of discussion 0:12:19.000 --> 0:12:24.360 of our military in this campaign. What happened We have 0:12:25.640 --> 0:12:28.959 entirely internal focused, Tom and I think we all know 0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:34.840 that the pandemic, the economy, getting our teeth straightened. Everything 0:12:35.040 --> 0:12:39.400 is looking into the economy these days, and as a result, 0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:44.200 events continue to move in the real world China, Russia 0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:48.840 and North Korea, on and on um. They're swimming around 0:12:49.280 --> 0:12:51.719 waiting for the results of this election, and we need 0:12:51.840 --> 0:12:54.280 to be mindful and I think coming out of the election, 0:12:54.400 --> 0:12:58.480 Tom Um, these issues, these international issues are going to 0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:01.320 bubble to the floor. Well those national issues is there 0:13:01.679 --> 0:13:04.720 in Obviously, this election can go one of two ways. 0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:09.600 If I presume a second administration, Trump will be maybe 0:13:09.679 --> 0:13:13.160 like the first administration. Fine, but there is a mystery 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:17.439 to a Biden administration. What would you presume would be 0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:22.400 his extension to the Pentagon and his extension to state. 0:13:23.760 --> 0:13:29.080 First of all, look for re engagement in the international scene. 0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:32.840 That means working more closely with NATO. That means coming 0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:36.920 back into the Paris climate of courts. That means nailing 0:13:37.000 --> 0:13:41.839 down a strategic arms limitation treaty with Russia. Uh, it 0:13:42.080 --> 0:13:45.920 means putting additional pressure on China in the South China. See, 0:13:46.000 --> 0:13:49.719 that's something I think both administrations will do. And above all, 0:13:49.880 --> 0:13:52.240 it will be a very clear eyed view of Russia 0:13:52.559 --> 0:13:57.600 and the ongoing turbulence that Russia generates in the international system. 0:13:57.880 --> 0:14:02.400 So two different paths, I think. Uh. Lastly, I'll say 0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:05.880 you'll probably see the Biden administration try and cut a 0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:11.440 new deal with Iran, returning to a nuclear arms deal, 0:14:11.559 --> 0:14:15.000 but bringing in some additional elements. Um. So I think 0:14:15.040 --> 0:14:19.640 it'll be more re engagement in the world, more alignment 0:14:19.720 --> 0:14:24.760 with our allies in a bit more focus on Iran, 0:14:25.480 --> 0:14:29.680 North Korea, China, and Russia. Speaking of Iran, yesterday, the 0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:32.880 top U s by chief accused Iran of making direct 0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:36.760 efforts in interfering with the US election. What do you 0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:39.760 make of some of the interference claims so far? And 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:43.200 in terms of who wants who to win the election? 0:14:44.800 --> 0:14:49.720 Clearly the nations I just mentioned, particularly China, Russia, and 0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:54.400 Iran are involved in attempting to manipulate the election. Iran 0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:58.240 doesn't have a lot of capability, but they would probably 0:14:58.440 --> 0:15:02.840 rather see a Biden administration on the theory that Biden 0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:07.480 administration will go to the negotiating table um China, I 0:15:07.600 --> 0:15:11.400 think it would prefer at this point. They've been back 0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:13.360 and forth, but I think at this point they would 0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:19.160 prefer a Biden administration simply because less turbulence, less back 0:15:19.240 --> 0:15:21.920 and forth. I think Russia clearly would favor a Trump 0:15:21.960 --> 0:15:26.440 administration because not that they have particular love for Donald Trump, 0:15:26.560 --> 0:15:29.280 but they loved the division in the country. With your 0:15:29.320 --> 0:15:31.480 father's service to the nation of the Marine Corps and 0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:34.800 particularly his tour of duty as a Greek American in 0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:39.080 the levant Your comment ad on Turkey and the upset 0:15:39.160 --> 0:15:43.400 of Cypress and the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey is banking a 0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:47.480 series of bad decisions lately under President ur Lwan. They're 0:15:47.520 --> 0:15:51.600 pushing too hard over oil and gas and they're generating 0:15:51.640 --> 0:15:56.440 real backlash not just from Greece but from Cyprus, Israel, Egypt. Secondly, 0:15:56.520 --> 0:16:01.320 they're backing Azerbai John in this nonsense war between Armenia 0:16:01.440 --> 0:16:06.040 and Azerby John, and thirdly pushing into Olivia. They're on 0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:08.920 the wrong side of almost every issue from a US 0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:12.280 perspective at the moment. There's one way to start a book, folks, 0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:14.920 and there's any number of wonderful books that Stravitus has done. 0:16:14.960 --> 0:16:18.080 I of course mentioned his Leader's Bookshelf is really a 0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:20.520 must mustard. I threw it at least as kids the 0:16:20.600 --> 0:16:22.800 other night and said, just shut up and read. Just 0:16:22.880 --> 0:16:26.520 start with start with Sharman the Civil War, and learn 0:16:26.560 --> 0:16:30.080 about Roberty Lee. There is Admiral a seventeen year old 0:16:30.160 --> 0:16:33.320 out to see and it was in nineteen seventy two. 0:16:33.440 --> 0:16:36.040 You had the courage to come out at Naval Academy 0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:38.760 in nineteen seventy six, and trust me, folks, at that 0:16:38.880 --> 0:16:42.800 time it was not a popular tour of duty and 0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:44.840 then you come over to what we've just witnessed with 0:16:44.960 --> 0:16:49.320 Tom Hanks on Greyhound in the North Atlantic Run. What 0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:52.440 was your thought moving from a seventeen year old kid 0:16:52.480 --> 0:16:56.240 on the Jeweit in nineteen seventy two, doctor Mr Hanks 0:16:56.400 --> 0:17:02.000 nineteen forty one. Um, that film is fabulous, but it's 0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:04.600 based back to books. It's based on an even better 0:17:04.800 --> 0:17:08.520 book called The Good Shepherd by C. S. Forrester. And 0:17:08.640 --> 0:17:11.320 that was a book I read as a teenager about 0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:15.000 those destroyers and those operations. And you know, you can 0:17:15.080 --> 0:17:17.840 drop a plumb line from that young Jim Staverdus to 0:17:17.920 --> 0:17:20.760 being the supreme Allied Commander of NATO. It's all about 0:17:20.880 --> 0:17:23.840 books and reading and the experiences we have in life. 0:17:23.880 --> 0:17:26.760 You put them together, you can do anything. Well. Then 0:17:26.840 --> 0:17:29.359 look at the future of the Navy now, I mean 0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:33.360 take Forrester and all the romance Patrick Patrick O'Brien, folks, Yes, 0:17:33.400 --> 0:17:37.679 I've read all twenty one editions of O'Brien, etcetera, etcetera, 0:17:37.680 --> 0:17:41.320 and the honor of speaking to Gabellian Chronkite about it. Great. Okay, 0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:46.040 the next navy can that seventeen year old kid in 0:17:46.119 --> 0:17:49.920 two thousand twenty one going out of San Diego. Can 0:17:50.000 --> 0:17:53.200 he have the same vision you had? I think so, 0:17:53.760 --> 0:17:58.840 And our Navy will be more technological, certainly more cyber, 0:17:59.040 --> 0:18:03.879 more unmanned vehicles, more integration with special forces, but the 0:18:04.119 --> 0:18:07.840 same fundamentals of going down to the sea and ships 0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:12.320 and sailing where millennia of mariners have gone before. We'll 0:18:12.359 --> 0:18:16.400 still capture young American men and women. I I think 0:18:16.480 --> 0:18:19.200 the Navy will be a huge part of our future, 0:18:19.600 --> 0:18:22.920 and in particular time back to China, the Navy's will 0:18:23.000 --> 0:18:27.080 in the South China Sea, pushing back on Chinese opportunism 0:18:27.160 --> 0:18:30.040 there must videz thank you so much before this election. 0:18:30.520 --> 0:18:33.920 Of course as former work with NATO with Carlyle, and 0:18:34.000 --> 0:18:36.000 of course I really wanted any number of the books, 0:18:36.040 --> 0:18:38.000 but where I took that out of that great opening 0:18:38.359 --> 0:18:42.200 sea power, the history and geopolitics of America and the 0:18:42.320 --> 0:18:48.760 Navy as well. I'm the pandemic, Lisa, and I've been 0:18:48.840 --> 0:18:53.920 following the deaths, the cases, but there's also those in recovery. 0:18:54.040 --> 0:18:58.960 Here's Jason Farley, uh, professor of nursing the Johns Hopkins University. 0:18:59.800 --> 0:19:03.520 We're seeing continued emerging data. There is a recent publication 0:19:03.600 --> 0:19:07.840 in the journal American Medical Association highly respected journal, showing 0:19:07.920 --> 0:19:11.159 that they followed patients after their uniqual long set of 0:19:11.240 --> 0:19:14.840 symptoms for up to two months after they initially became sick, 0:19:15.440 --> 0:19:19.200 and they found that patient fatigue was the most common symptoms, 0:19:19.480 --> 0:19:23.240 but they also had lingering symptoms from the respiratory system, 0:19:23.320 --> 0:19:27.639 so cough and some some difficulty breathing at times. Some patients, 0:19:27.680 --> 0:19:31.600 although a smaller proportion less than still have problems with 0:19:31.800 --> 0:19:35.240 taste and smell. So I think we definitely are seeing 0:19:35.359 --> 0:19:40.440 some subgroups of people who have longer symptoms. Jason, just 0:19:40.520 --> 0:19:44.520 to add to that, what if we let about reinfection. Yeah, 0:19:44.600 --> 0:19:48.520 we continue to see cases of small numbers of cases, 0:19:48.600 --> 0:19:51.160 let's be clear, but small numbers of cases of patients 0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:54.920 who we've identified have recovered from the infection, and I'll 0:19:54.960 --> 0:19:58.280 have a documented negative test in some of the cases 0:19:58.400 --> 0:20:03.760 repeatedly negative and then have subsequently developed coronavirus. Again. Um, 0:20:04.359 --> 0:20:07.320 it was always within the realm of possibility. We talked 0:20:07.320 --> 0:20:09.480 about it on this show and in others um that 0:20:09.640 --> 0:20:12.080 that would possibly occur, and now we're just seeing small 0:20:12.160 --> 0:20:15.960 members of cases where that information is growing. Jason, what's 0:20:15.960 --> 0:20:19.639 the latest on the infectiousness of children Initially there was 0:20:19.720 --> 0:20:22.600 a theory that perhaps they were not infectious. Those of 0:20:22.680 --> 0:20:25.240 us who have children said that can't possibly be, since 0:20:25.240 --> 0:20:27.639 they are vectors of disease. Now the idea is that 0:20:27.760 --> 0:20:30.320 they can spread the virus. How are we looking in 0:20:30.480 --> 0:20:33.320 terms of how they compare with a degree of spreading 0:20:33.359 --> 0:20:37.800 it versus adults. Yeah, so, well there are a couple 0:20:37.800 --> 0:20:40.640 of points there. So so in terms of how how 0:20:41.520 --> 0:20:44.920 good at child is that spreading compared to an adult, 0:20:45.520 --> 0:20:49.000 you know, really they have the as equal a probability 0:20:49.040 --> 0:20:51.800 of transmission depending on their viral load and how much 0:20:51.920 --> 0:20:54.840 virus they have and then how much contact they have. 0:20:55.520 --> 0:20:58.880 So so that's the person. Um we were wrong initially 0:20:58.880 --> 0:21:01.560 about them being less ters. You know, with with certain 0:21:01.600 --> 0:21:04.360 infectious diseases with small kids in particular, like the really 0:21:04.440 --> 0:21:07.400 little ones. Um, their cough is a little weaker, it's 0:21:07.440 --> 0:21:09.280 not as forceful, so you would think of as you 0:21:09.320 --> 0:21:11.640 think of pigpen and a cloud of dust that goes 0:21:11.680 --> 0:21:14.120 around them. You know that that cloud of dust around 0:21:14.160 --> 0:21:16.520 the children is a little smaller than our moments adults. 0:21:16.600 --> 0:21:19.560 So so there's some data to support that they may 0:21:19.600 --> 0:21:23.240 be able to spread aerosols a little less far, but overall, 0:21:23.280 --> 0:21:25.879 they carry a similar amount of virus and therefore are 0:21:26.000 --> 0:21:31.359 as equally infectious as their adults counterparts are. Family Jason 0:21:31.400 --> 0:21:33.400 just around down the interview. Let's try and fit finish 0:21:33.440 --> 0:21:36.400 on a positive note, the improvement in therapeutics. We're looking 0:21:36.440 --> 0:21:39.760 at the case count, we're looking at hospitalizations again, Jason 0:21:39.800 --> 0:21:42.280 walked me through therapeutics. How much has improved over the 0:21:42.400 --> 0:21:46.680 last six months or so. Yeah, so right now we've 0:21:46.720 --> 0:21:50.200 got um you know, definitely a glimmer of hope. So 0:21:50.640 --> 0:21:52.920 the most of the world is now using them dim 0:21:53.040 --> 0:21:56.960 severre with or without tex and mathasone UM so with 0:21:57.200 --> 0:21:59.359 those two agents, and it all depends on whether or 0:21:59.359 --> 0:22:02.560 not you need ventilation or oxygenation. And that's how they're 0:22:03.000 --> 0:22:06.320 recommendations around the world are moving forward. Uh, people who 0:22:06.359 --> 0:22:09.880 need oxygen get dex methodzone or indissevere, and then people 0:22:09.920 --> 0:22:13.080 who need mechanical ventilation likely get both. There was a 0:22:13.160 --> 0:22:15.320 recent study that just came out from the w h 0:22:15.400 --> 0:22:19.159 O that still under peer review that calls to question 0:22:19.280 --> 0:22:23.920 again the mortality benefit the death benefit of ridissevere. But 0:22:24.280 --> 0:22:26.960 we had already had good data that showed that redissevere 0:22:27.080 --> 0:22:30.960 did not reduce death, it reduced symptom burden. So so 0:22:31.080 --> 0:22:33.240 again are another study that seems to be similar to 0:22:33.320 --> 0:22:36.280 what we already know. So what we're seeing is the 0:22:36.400 --> 0:22:39.920 cases of patients having greater access to these treatments, which 0:22:39.960 --> 0:22:43.280