1 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,840 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Jay Leye. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the Bloomberg Mike 5 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 1: Pile joining us now black Rock Investment Institute Global Chief 6 00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:32,880 Speaker 1: Investment Strategist, might fantastic to catch up with you, sir. 7 00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:36,199 Speaker 1: The guide for you does it market participants, stay up 8 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 1: and watch this debate, trade on it, off the back 9 00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:40,800 Speaker 1: of it, based on who you think one. How do 10 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:44,839 Speaker 1: you go through this? Mike? What's the process? So one 11 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:48,040 Speaker 1: of the things we've been saying throughout the election season 12 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:51,960 Speaker 1: is just how stable the polls have been, even in 13 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: the face of obviously historic events in in the United States. 14 00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:58,920 Speaker 1: And so I think, as it relates to your question, 15 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 1: you know, yes, you know, insofar as it's one of 16 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:05,679 Speaker 1: the last big events before the presidential election, it could matter. 17 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:09,480 Speaker 1: But our basic thesis is that that this race continues 18 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 1: to look awfly stable on Our advice to investors is, 19 00:01:12,520 --> 00:01:16,960 Speaker 1: you know, look through any volatility that the race itself generates, 20 00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:19,400 Speaker 1: look to the long term, look to the fundamentals and 21 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:22,559 Speaker 1: add to high conviction positions if you do see that volatility. 22 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 1: Mike Powel, you were weaned on blanch Flower economics at 23 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 1: Dartmouth College and just a simple idea of wage dynamics 24 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:32,280 Speaker 1: and the separation of societies, which which is known and 25 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:34,320 Speaker 1: not only what Danny Blanche Follower has done, but others 26 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:38,320 Speaker 1: at Dartmouth economics. How divided is this nation now? And 27 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 1: what does it mean for investors? So, you know, I'd 28 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 1: say the nation, you know, does look divided across a 29 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 1: couple of dimensions. Obviously the political polar polarization as historic highs. 30 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 1: But I think as well, when we talk about economics, 31 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 1: when we talk about markets, you know, I know we've 32 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 1: talked a lot about the k shape nature of the 33 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 1: recovery and that agree to which you know, even an 34 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 1: aggregate as the economy is surprised to the upside, that's 35 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 1: a much different experience for people in different parts of 36 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 1: this economy. And I think that's why as we look ahead, 37 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:12,639 Speaker 1: you know, this question is you've raised around fiscal stimulus, 38 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 1: this question of is the is the recovery going to 39 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 1: become more sustained? Is going to be an awful big 40 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 1: part of a market narrative as we go into Micha, 41 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:22,679 Speaker 1: A lot of people are believing in this yield curve 42 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 1: steepening story, higher longer term yields based on this idea 43 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: that we will get some sort of fiscal support bill, 44 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:32,360 Speaker 1: perhaps this year, definitely next year. How high contenure yields 45 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 1: really rise before the Fed steps in? We think this 46 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:40,239 Speaker 1: is a huge issue. Uh And I would say, are 47 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:42,360 Speaker 1: are do you want it as a perhaps a little 48 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:44,640 Speaker 1: distinct I mean, I think we heard from Governor Brainerd 49 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 1: yesterday that the Fed intends to act along the entire 50 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:51,280 Speaker 1: yield curve. We see that as a as a signal 51 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 1: of of exactly that the Fed is going to be 52 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 1: pretty closely watching the nominal curve and not allowing a 53 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,519 Speaker 1: tremendous amount of steepening to us. The kind of more 54 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:06,240 Speaker 1: compelling reflation dynamic is to expect to see the nominal 55 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 1: curve stay more or less stable to a little higher, 56 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:12,920 Speaker 1: but but real rates tips to rally even more considerably, 57 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:15,560 Speaker 1: so real rates even more negative, and that has pretty 58 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:19,640 Speaker 1: important implications for the dollar risk assets globally. So we 59 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 1: think that's the really important dynamic here. Well, make that 60 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:27,079 Speaker 1: makes it profoundly difficult to earn financials, and it makes 61 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 1: it even easier to stick with what's working right now. 62 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 1: What do you say back to the people that are 63 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:36,200 Speaker 1: talking up the rotation in the equity market in America? 64 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 1: So I'd say two things. And I think we have 65 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 1: been talking about a type of rotation the market that 66 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 1: it's been less growth to value and more large too small. 67 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 1: We do think that the growth dynamics that are reflationary, 68 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus type path could put in could bring about 69 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 1: that type of rotation. But agree with you that you know, 70 00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 1: in a world where we see real rates lower, when 71 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 1: we see the path of of the dollar potentially lower 72 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: as well, that's also a pretty attractive world for for 73 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:09,840 Speaker 1: equities outside the United States risk assets outside the United States, 74 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:13,119 Speaker 1: including places like emerging markets. So I'm looking right now. 75 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 1: The low of negative real yields for ten year treasuries, 76 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 1: in other words, amount of money are losing to invest 77 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 1: in longer term treasuries based on the rate of inflation, 78 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:26,720 Speaker 1: hit a record negative point one one percent in September. 79 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 1: How low could this go? I don't want to put 80 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 1: any precise numbers on it, but I do think the 81 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 1: important point is if you look at um places that 82 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:42,400 Speaker 1: have combined kind of significant ongoing monetary accommodation plus fiscal policy, 83 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 1: that the place where that has really manifested itself as 84 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 1: in is in real rates. I mean, this is what 85 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 1: we saw in Japan, this is what we've seen in 86 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:52,520 Speaker 1: other places that have brought this combination to bear. And 87 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:56,080 Speaker 1: I think that's where we see the pressure from those 88 00:04:56,120 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 1: two forces coming together in policy really manifesting itself and market. 89 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 1: My pile from black Rock, Mike just fantastic to catch 90 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:10,359 Speaker 1: up as always joining us from the black Rock Investment Institute. 91 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:13,760 Speaker 1: Jeffrey h is with v and White Melon. He is 92 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 1: a senior strategist in is wonderfully eclectic about linking foreign 93 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 1: exchange dynamics into everything else that's out there. We're thrilly 94 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 1: could join us right now, Jeff, I want to talk 95 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:28,159 Speaker 1: about the persistent stronger n men be the Chinese you want. 96 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 1: Is that managed by Beijing or is that the market 97 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:35,279 Speaker 1: speaking a bit of both it right now? So Beijing 98 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 1: is managing it less. I think that that's been clear 99 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 1: for the market to see. For the market now is 100 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:42,279 Speaker 1: trying to be okay, You're not managing it Let's see 101 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:44,839 Speaker 1: how far we can push them then be stronger before 102 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:47,159 Speaker 1: you actually start to want to manage it a bit 103 00:05:47,200 --> 00:05:50,080 Speaker 1: more because this is getting uncomfortable for China, race is 104 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:53,080 Speaker 1: still quite high if you look at whether mon curvid. 105 00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:56,120 Speaker 1: I'm sure though there are some no big activities in 106 00:05:56,520 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 1: some of the mestic I t O market coming through. 107 00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:00,280 Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, you know, one 108 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 1: strong spot has been exports, right, but a stronger currency 109 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:05,680 Speaker 1: that coupee into exports. So the market is going to 110 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 1: be testing the PDOC tolerance up ahead. How does remembering 111 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:13,440 Speaker 1: diffused leak if you will, to the other currencies of 112 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:17,840 Speaker 1: the Pacific RIM and indeed over the US dollar. Well, 113 00:06:17,839 --> 00:06:20,279 Speaker 1: there's two ways this can happen. One positive one paths 114 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:23,520 Speaker 1: less positive. The positive side is stronger than be stronger 115 00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 1: persons in power for Chinese, you know, the fable Chinese 116 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 1: consumer that the world desperately needs to come through. Then 117 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:32,480 Speaker 1: they have more personal power they can spend and lift 118 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:36,679 Speaker 1: the economy around them. However, you know, if China actually 119 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 1: starts to get worried about this and start the pushback 120 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 1: starts to intervene, then career Japan, Taiwan, they're going to 121 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 1: get nervous as well. We don't want to localized currency war. 122 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 1: But for the time being, I think they're going to 123 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 1: be given everyone else a lot of space, especially career. 124 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:52,599 Speaker 1: You know, that's one where I think the market is 125 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 1: quite fond of as well. So Jeffrey comes down to tolerance. 126 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:59,719 Speaker 1: Let's talk about levels dollar China. Right now. We saw 127 00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:02,479 Speaker 1: six sixty four earlier in the session. What kind of 128 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 1: level do you have in mind? Well, I think when 129 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:08,360 Speaker 1: we get to say, you six fifty, you know that 130 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 1: kind of the level of the PDOC may need to 131 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 1: take a double taper. Let's go back to two thousand 132 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 1: and fourteen, two thousand and fifty, when did the p 133 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:17,920 Speaker 1: BOC really start to talk down the room and be well, 134 00:07:17,960 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 1: talk about it being quote que valued. You know that 135 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:24,200 Speaker 1: is the key phrase from kago Is now the governor. There. 136 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 1: We were heading towards in the six ten. People were 137 00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 1: talking about it breaking six and heading into five. Nowhere 138 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 1: near there yet. All the PBSC leadership, though they were 139 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 1: on the wires yesterday, no one uttered a single to 140 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 1: the what about the rim be So it's telling you 141 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:39,640 Speaker 1: these levels right now, they're happy with it to continue 142 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 1: to advance down to six fifty. Then Jeff, let's build 143 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 1: on this the derivatives of this trade stronger China, stronger currency. 144 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 1: People have been loading up on copper bit and up 145 00:07:48,280 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 1: the copper price out of those trades have been attached 146 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 1: to that stronger Chinese currency. What do you things vulnerable 147 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:57,200 Speaker 1: at the moment, Jeff, So from a positioning point, See, 148 00:07:57,320 --> 00:08:00,440 Speaker 1: we've already seen the oddie adjust a bit, right, so 149 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:04,200 Speaker 1: but for copper, so for Chillian testossie dollar. I actually 150 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:06,880 Speaker 1: think in particular BOSSI is not that vulnerable. I would 151 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 1: like it to actually move forward a bit after the 152 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 1: rb A figures out its policy path. If you are 153 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:14,560 Speaker 1: an oil related currency, I think that's where you don't 154 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 1: want to own the China beta because all the comments 155 00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 1: are repond the leadership next year, and then next week 156 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:21,960 Speaker 1: they announced the next five year fan China wants to 157 00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:24,559 Speaker 1: go green, China wants to move away from fossil fields 158 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:27,640 Speaker 1: as well, go for early carbon neutrality and then start 159 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 1: to shrink its carbon footprint. So that isn't really a 160 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 1: good stories of possile field. So you saw go along 161 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:36,280 Speaker 1: iron or you go those proxies um for oil and 162 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:38,560 Speaker 1: energy and the rest. I'm not so sure Okay, So 163 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:40,959 Speaker 1: the flip side of the strong un of the strong 164 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:44,320 Speaker 1: carper call is the week dollar a call. What could 165 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 1: potentially be the catalyst to further the weekend to further 166 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 1: weaken the dollar from here, well, I think a massive 167 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:55,440 Speaker 1: reallocation story and we're talking mediums along with irrespective what 168 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:57,920 Speaker 1: happens to the election, I think that is in place 169 00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:00,079 Speaker 1: in it right now. You look at the underlying it 170 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:02,560 Speaker 1: for Chinese government bonds, I mean, look at the yields 171 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 1: right now at three uh a, three fifteen, three twenty 172 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:08,080 Speaker 1: on a head spaces it's some naturally you know, quite 173 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 1: solid as well, let alone unheaged flow. So as long 174 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:14,400 Speaker 1: as China continues to grow and the rest of the 175 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 1: world and the US underperforms on growth, I think that 176 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 1: reallocation story into Chinese assets, into Asian assets, which is 177 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: that performing, I think that will undermine the dollar. It's 178 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:26,720 Speaker 1: not the usual suspect. So markets want to be short 179 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 1: dollars against that then and be Korean one. They're looking 180 00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:32,240 Speaker 1: at Taiwan dollar and the rest and against the euro 181 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 1: sterling not so much right now, the kind of in 182 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 1: the same vote. All right, in the short term though, 183 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 1: there is the potential for underpricing a contested election, underpricing 184 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:43,959 Speaker 1: what servis Boras wants to Weinstein called critic chaos that 185 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 1: he's predicting around the US election. Does the dollar strengthen 186 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:51,960 Speaker 1: in that type of scenario, um, so, volatility is going 187 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:53,960 Speaker 1: to speak heither and one of the drivers. But if 188 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:56,719 Speaker 1: we go back to a March kind of scenario where 189 00:09:56,760 --> 00:10:00,960 Speaker 1: market just scrambles the liquidity, then then probably it will 190 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 1: be a dollar positive story. But having said that, all 191 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 1: of the facilities established by the Federal Reserve in March, 192 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:09,599 Speaker 1: you know, they are still in placeful, they can be 193 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:12,760 Speaker 1: reactivated very very quickly. Right, so I don't think it's 194 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:15,040 Speaker 1: going to be as severe as we saw in March. 195 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:17,319 Speaker 1: And also just be wary of what you want to own. 196 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 1: A dollar against dollar and downside dollar swift downside people 197 00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 1: might want to own those trades as well as election heades. 198 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:26,200 Speaker 1: How much is the U n strengthening on the heels 199 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 1: of a Biden win, of the expectation that's being baked 200 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 1: into markets. I don't think that is a catholics right now. 201 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:37,280 Speaker 1: It's more on the China alone, its own economy, its 202 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 1: own numbers are actually strengthening slow. And also you know, 203 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:43,439 Speaker 1: with the app allocation, with what's going on in the 204 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 1: equity market, big text ideas coming up, and further opening 205 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:50,560 Speaker 1: of the bond market. It's that underlying institutional reallocation to China, 206 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:52,719 Speaker 1: which has actually been solding for some time now. And 207 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 1: again I think that's music independently of the poles. Now, 208 00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:58,640 Speaker 1: if the trade relationship there can be let's just say, 209 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:02,080 Speaker 1: less chaos over next years, that's going to be positive 210 00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:03,679 Speaker 1: for China. But I think they'll be positive for the 211 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 1: US in the world as well because gobal trade starts 212 00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 1: to normalize somewhat. So I don't see any inconsistencies. Would say, 213 00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:11,960 Speaker 1: good US market and good Chinese market. But for now, 214 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:15,480 Speaker 1: I think it's a China standalone story. Jeff, find a 215 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:17,679 Speaker 1: question from me. You've always got a favorite trade, what 216 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:21,280 Speaker 1: is it right now? So you know right now again, 217 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 1: I like the China proxies. I want to own Aussie, 218 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:25,719 Speaker 1: I want to own a Korean one. And on the 219 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,840 Speaker 1: other side, probably Sterling is my favorite funder right now. 220 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 1: I think the BO he's got it wrong. I think 221 00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 1: they need to do a lot more upp ahead. What's 222 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 1: not announced today not enough. So I want to add 223 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 1: to my Sterling Shorts, a salary Sterling buyer of the 224 00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:42,079 Speaker 1: China proxies. Jeff Greater, catch up, sir, Jeff, you of 225 00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 1: b and y melon. Thank you. This is a joy. 226 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:50,080 Speaker 1: I said to the wonderful staff the other day. Can 227 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:53,320 Speaker 1: you dread the admiral down? And let's get him in there? 228 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:57,439 Speaker 1: And you know we found him. He's like, you know, 229 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: he's pandemics. Oh. James Travinis joins us here before an election. 230 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:05,760 Speaker 1: We should point out that the last time around he 231 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:09,360 Speaker 1: was discussed as a vice president of vice presidential caliber 232 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 1: for Secretary Clinton. Were thrilled that he could join. Today. 233 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:18,720 Speaker 1: I am thunderstruck, Admiral Stravins by the lack of discussion 234 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 1: of our military in this campaign. What happened We have 235 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:28,959 Speaker 1: entirely internal focused, Tom and I think we all know 236 00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 1: that the pandemic, the economy, getting our teeth straightened. Everything 237 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 1: is looking into the economy these days, and as a result, 238 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:44,200 Speaker 1: events continue to move in the real world China, Russia 239 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:48,840 Speaker 1: and North Korea, on and on um. They're swimming around 240 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:51,719 Speaker 1: waiting for the results of this election, and we need 241 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 1: to be mindful and I think coming out of the election, 242 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:58,480 Speaker 1: Tom Um, these issues, these international issues are going to 243 00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:01,320 Speaker 1: bubble to the floor. Well those national issues is there 244 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:04,720 Speaker 1: in Obviously, this election can go one of two ways. 245 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 1: If I presume a second administration, Trump will be maybe 246 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 1: like the first administration. Fine, but there is a mystery 247 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:17,439 Speaker 1: to a Biden administration. What would you presume would be 248 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 1: his extension to the Pentagon and his extension to state. 249 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:29,080 Speaker 1: First of all, look for re engagement in the international scene. 250 00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 1: That means working more closely with NATO. That means coming 251 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 1: back into the Paris climate of courts. That means nailing 252 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:41,839 Speaker 1: down a strategic arms limitation treaty with Russia. Uh, it 253 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:45,920 Speaker 1: means putting additional pressure on China in the South China. See, 254 00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:49,719 Speaker 1: that's something I think both administrations will do. And above all, 255 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:52,240 Speaker 1: it will be a very clear eyed view of Russia 256 00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 1: and the ongoing turbulence that Russia generates in the international system. 257 00:13:57,880 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 1: So two different paths, I think. Uh. Lastly, I'll say 258 00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:05,880 Speaker 1: you'll probably see the Biden administration try and cut a 259 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:11,440 Speaker 1: new deal with Iran, returning to a nuclear arms deal, 260 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 1: but bringing in some additional elements. Um. So I think 261 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 1: it'll be more re engagement in the world, more alignment 262 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 1: with our allies in a bit more focus on Iran, 263 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:29,680 Speaker 1: North Korea, China, and Russia. Speaking of Iran, yesterday, the 264 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 1: top U s by chief accused Iran of making direct 265 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:36,760 Speaker 1: efforts in interfering with the US election. What do you 266 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 1: make of some of the interference claims so far? And 267 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 1: in terms of who wants who to win the election? 268 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 1: Clearly the nations I just mentioned, particularly China, Russia, and 269 00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 1: Iran are involved in attempting to manipulate the election. Iran 270 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 1: doesn't have a lot of capability, but they would probably 271 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:02,840 Speaker 1: rather see a Biden administration on the theory that Biden 272 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 1: administration will go to the negotiating table um China, I 273 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 1: think it would prefer at this point. They've been back 274 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 1: and forth, but I think at this point they would 275 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 1: prefer a Biden administration simply because less turbulence, less back 276 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 1: and forth. I think Russia clearly would favor a Trump 277 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 1: administration because not that they have particular love for Donald Trump, 278 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 1: but they loved the division in the country. With your 279 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:31,480 Speaker 1: father's service to the nation of the Marine Corps and 280 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:34,800 Speaker 1: particularly his tour of duty as a Greek American in 281 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 1: the levant Your comment ad on Turkey and the upset 282 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:43,400 Speaker 1: of Cypress and the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey is banking a 283 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:47,480 Speaker 1: series of bad decisions lately under President ur Lwan. They're 284 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:51,600 Speaker 1: pushing too hard over oil and gas and they're generating 285 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 1: real backlash not just from Greece but from Cyprus, Israel, Egypt. Secondly, 286 00:15:56,520 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 1: they're backing Azerbai John in this nonsense war between Armenia 287 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 1: and Azerby John, and thirdly pushing into Olivia. They're on 288 00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 1: the wrong side of almost every issue from a US 289 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:12,280 Speaker 1: perspective at the moment. There's one way to start a book, folks, 290 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:14,920 Speaker 1: and there's any number of wonderful books that Stravitus has done. 291 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 1: I of course mentioned his Leader's Bookshelf is really a 292 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 1: must mustard. I threw it at least as kids the 293 00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 1: other night and said, just shut up and read. Just 294 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:26,520 Speaker 1: start with start with Sharman the Civil War, and learn 295 00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:30,080 Speaker 1: about Roberty Lee. There is Admiral a seventeen year old 296 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:33,320 Speaker 1: out to see and it was in nineteen seventy two. 297 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 1: You had the courage to come out at Naval Academy 298 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 1: in nineteen seventy six, and trust me, folks, at that 299 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:42,800 Speaker 1: time it was not a popular tour of duty and 300 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 1: then you come over to what we've just witnessed with 301 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:49,320 Speaker 1: Tom Hanks on Greyhound in the North Atlantic Run. What 302 00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 1: was your thought moving from a seventeen year old kid 303 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:56,240 Speaker 1: on the Jeweit in nineteen seventy two, doctor Mr Hanks 304 00:16:56,400 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 1: nineteen forty one. Um, that film is fabulous, but it's 305 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 1: based back to books. It's based on an even better 306 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 1: book called The Good Shepherd by C. S. Forrester. And 307 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 1: that was a book I read as a teenager about 308 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 1: those destroyers and those operations. And you know, you can 309 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:17,840 Speaker 1: drop a plumb line from that young Jim Staverdus to 310 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 1: being the supreme Allied Commander of NATO. It's all about 311 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:23,840 Speaker 1: books and reading and the experiences we have in life. 312 00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:26,760 Speaker 1: You put them together, you can do anything. Well. Then 313 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:29,359 Speaker 1: look at the future of the Navy now, I mean 314 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:33,360 Speaker 1: take Forrester and all the romance Patrick Patrick O'Brien, folks, Yes, 315 00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:37,679 Speaker 1: I've read all twenty one editions of O'Brien, etcetera, etcetera, 316 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:41,320 Speaker 1: and the honor of speaking to Gabellian Chronkite about it. Great. Okay, 317 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:46,040 Speaker 1: the next navy can that seventeen year old kid in 318 00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:49,920 Speaker 1: two thousand twenty one going out of San Diego. Can 319 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 1: he have the same vision you had? I think so, 320 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 1: And our Navy will be more technological, certainly more cyber, 321 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:03,879 Speaker 1: more unmanned vehicles, more integration with special forces, but the 322 00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 1: same fundamentals of going down to the sea and ships 323 00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:12,320 Speaker 1: and sailing where millennia of mariners have gone before. We'll 324 00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:16,400 Speaker 1: still capture young American men and women. I I think 325 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:19,200 Speaker 1: the Navy will be a huge part of our future, 326 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:22,920 Speaker 1: and in particular time back to China, the Navy's will 327 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 1: in the South China Sea, pushing back on Chinese opportunism 328 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 1: there must videz thank you so much before this election. 329 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:33,920 Speaker 1: Of course as former work with NATO with Carlyle, and 330 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:36,000 Speaker 1: of course I really wanted any number of the books, 331 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:38,000 Speaker 1: but where I took that out of that great opening 332 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:42,200 Speaker 1: sea power, the history and geopolitics of America and the 333 00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:48,760 Speaker 1: Navy as well. I'm the pandemic, Lisa, and I've been 334 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:53,920 Speaker 1: following the deaths, the cases, but there's also those in recovery. 335 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:58,960 Speaker 1: Here's Jason Farley, uh, professor of nursing the Johns Hopkins University. 336 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 1: We're seeing continued emerging data. There is a recent publication 337 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 1: in the journal American Medical Association highly respected journal, showing 338 00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:11,159 Speaker 1: that they followed patients after their uniqual long set of 339 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 1: symptoms for up to two months after they initially became sick, 340 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:19,200 Speaker 1: and they found that patient fatigue was the most common symptoms, 341 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 1: but they also had lingering symptoms from the respiratory system, 342 00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:27,639 Speaker 1: so cough and some some difficulty breathing at times. Some patients, 343 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:31,600 Speaker 1: although a smaller proportion less than still have problems with 344 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:35,240 Speaker 1: taste and smell. So I think we definitely are seeing 345 00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:40,440 Speaker 1: some subgroups of people who have longer symptoms. Jason, just 346 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 1: to add to that, what if we let about reinfection. Yeah, 347 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:48,520 Speaker 1: we continue to see cases of small numbers of cases, 348 00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:51,160 Speaker 1: let's be clear, but small numbers of cases of patients 349 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:54,920 Speaker 1: who we've identified have recovered from the infection, and I'll 350 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:58,280 Speaker 1: have a documented negative test in some of the cases 351 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:03,760 Speaker 1: repeatedly negative and then have subsequently developed coronavirus. Again. Um, 352 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:07,320 Speaker 1: it was always within the realm of possibility. We talked 353 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:09,480 Speaker 1: about it on this show and in others um that 354 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 1: that would possibly occur, and now we're just seeing small 355 00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:15,960 Speaker 1: members of cases where that information is growing. Jason, what's 356 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:19,639 Speaker 1: the latest on the infectiousness of children Initially there was 357 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,600 Speaker 1: a theory that perhaps they were not infectious. Those of 358 00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:25,240 Speaker 1: us who have children said that can't possibly be, since 359 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:27,639 Speaker 1: they are vectors of disease. Now the idea is that 360 00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:30,320 Speaker 1: they can spread the virus. How are we looking in 361 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 1: terms of how they compare with a degree of spreading 362 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 1: it versus adults. Yeah, so, well there are a couple 363 00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:40,640 Speaker 1: of points there. So so in terms of how how 364 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:44,920 Speaker 1: good at child is that spreading compared to an adult, 365 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:49,000 Speaker 1: you know, really they have the as equal a probability 366 00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 1: of transmission depending on their viral load and how much 367 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:54,840 Speaker 1: virus they have and then how much contact they have. 368 00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:58,880 Speaker 1: So so that's the person. Um we were wrong initially 369 00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 1: about them being less ters. You know, with with certain 370 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:04,360 Speaker 1: infectious diseases with small kids in particular, like the really 371 00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:07,400 Speaker 1: little ones. Um, their cough is a little weaker, it's 372 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:09,280 Speaker 1: not as forceful, so you would think of as you 373 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:11,640 Speaker 1: think of pigpen and a cloud of dust that goes 374 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,120 Speaker 1: around them. You know that that cloud of dust around 375 00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:16,520 Speaker 1: the children is a little smaller than our moments adults. 376 00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 1: So so there's some data to support that they may 377 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:23,240 Speaker 1: be able to spread aerosols a little less far, but overall, 378 00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:25,879 Speaker 1: they carry a similar amount of virus and therefore are 379 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:31,359 Speaker 1: as equally infectious as their adults counterparts are. Family Jason 380 00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:33,400 Speaker 1: just around down the interview. Let's try and fit finish 381 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:36,400 Speaker 1: on a positive note, the improvement in therapeutics. We're looking 382 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,760 Speaker 1: at the case count, we're looking at hospitalizations again, Jason 383 00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:42,280 Speaker 1: walked me through therapeutics. How much has improved over the 384 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:46,680 Speaker 1: last six months or so. Yeah, so right now we've 385 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:50,200 Speaker 1: got um you know, definitely a glimmer of hope. So 386 00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:52,920 Speaker 1: the most of the world is now using them dim 387 00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:56,960 Speaker 1: severre with or without tex and mathasone UM so with 388 00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 1: those two agents, and it all depends on whether or 389 00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 1: not you need ventilation or oxygenation. And that's how they're 390 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:06,320 Speaker 1: recommendations around the world are moving forward. Uh, people who 391 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:09,880 Speaker 1: need oxygen get dex methodzone or indissevere, and then people 392 00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:13,080 Speaker 1: who need mechanical ventilation likely get both. There was a 393 00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:15,320 Speaker 1: recent study that just came out from the w h 394 00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:19,159 Speaker 1: O that still under peer review that calls to question 395 00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:23,920 Speaker 1: again the mortality benefit the death benefit of ridissevere. But 396 00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 1: we had already had good data that showed that redissevere 397 00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,960 Speaker 1: did not reduce death, it reduced symptom burden. So so 398 00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:33,240 Speaker 1: again are another study that seems to be similar to 399 00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:36,280 Speaker 1: what we already know. So what we're seeing is the 400 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,920 Speaker 1: cases of patients having greater access to these treatments, which 401 00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 1: is also going to help us reduce ultimately the mortality 402 00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:46,960 Speaker 1: level as we can scale up these interventions. Someone with 403 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:50,200 Speaker 1: knowledge that is a good thing. In silence, Professor Farley, 404 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:55,560 Speaker 1: Encyclopedic on the Care of People. Professor Mercy John's Hopkins University. 405 00:22:55,920 --> 00:23:00,080 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and 406 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:05,480 Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast 407 00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene before 408 00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:14,040 Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.