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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast presented by BED

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Speaker 1: three sixty five, part of the Volume Podcast Network. I

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Speaker 1: am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is our

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Speaker 1: Tuesday Super Bowl fifty nine preview episode. We will break

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Speaker 1: down the lines for the Big Game between the Kansas

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Speaker 1: City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles with our guest doctor

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Speaker 1: Nick Giffen Predictive Analystic Action Network. We'll talk super Bowl bets,

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Speaker 1: his incredible luck rankings.

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Speaker 2: Hi, everybody Hi.

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Speaker 1: After Nick Simon and I will deliver our exec decision

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Speaker 1: and our Simon says, because we are on the super

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Speaker 1: Bowl schedule, reminder, we will wait and do our Big

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Speaker 1: Balls foxhol Biggest bet Scutroulette next Thursday before the Super.

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Speaker 3: Bowl, as we do every year.

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Speaker 1: We've got a full menu of super Bowl betting intel

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Speaker 1: for you over the next four episode. After today's betting

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Speaker 1: preview episode, we've got our super Bowl Trend Show with

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Speaker 1: our beloved data Mavin Evan Abrams on Thursday. Next Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: we talk all things super Bowl props with Sean Kerner

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Speaker 1: and Chris Raybon. Then we'll wrap it up next Thursday

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Speaker 1: with our final Best Bets episode of the football season.

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Speaker 1: Joined by Brandon Anderson, who has crushed it with his

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Speaker 1: hot red bets on the Action Network podcast on Sunday

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Speaker 1: Nights with Evan exciting a couple of weeks planning to

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Speaker 1: break down over the next few episodes live from our

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Speaker 1: Timomy John Holmes Studios, I'm joined as always by my

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Speaker 1: co host, my companion, mikeam Padra, my BFF, professional Better

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Speaker 1: signmon hunter, el Sooimon Chad.

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Speaker 2: How are we doing?

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Speaker 3: I am so good? You know, I.

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Speaker 1: Know you feel this way. You've got the Eagles in

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. You've got massive futures on the Eagles

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Speaker 1: and the Chiefs. It feels like you've thread the needle beautifully.

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Speaker 1: I am still feeling a little bit relieved because the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs and the Eagles matchup bet paid off for me

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Speaker 1: after a relatively shitty year.

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Speaker 3: It is amazing to me.

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Speaker 1: How different I feel in the twenty four to forty

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Speaker 1: eight hours after.

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Speaker 3: Something wins. I know, it's so stupid.

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Speaker 1: It's not like I'm betting money that is going to

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Speaker 1: change my life one way or the other. It's only

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Speaker 1: about seeing the opportunity and then over the next twenty

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Speaker 1: four hours, feeling good that I made the right decision

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Speaker 1: regretting decisions I made, regretting decisions I didn't make, regretting

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Speaker 1: decisions I had in front of me that I missed. Like,

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Speaker 1: it's really what it comes down to for me, and

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Speaker 1: I just feel better having gotten the matchup.

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Speaker 3: Bet. I know it sounds amateurs. I don't know what

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Speaker 3: to tell you it is and it's not.

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Speaker 2: It's also I think it's because of this show. Right,

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Speaker 2: we know how huge of a show this is and

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Speaker 2: how many people listen, and a lot of pressure comes out.

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't be lying to you to end this season

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Speaker 2: going five zero to one on sides feels pretty fucking

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Speaker 2: good for your boy. So yeah, I get where you're

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Speaker 2: coming from. It's like, that's what we put all the

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Speaker 2: work in for, and you know, when it comes out

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Speaker 2: and works, it's like, God, this is this is the

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Speaker 2: best feeling. But yeah, I agree. The hardest part is

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Speaker 2: you're already onto the next week. So I definitely enjoyed it,

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Speaker 2: was excited for it. When we talked Sunday night and

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Speaker 2: I literally woke up Monday morning, I was just like, well,

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Speaker 2: back to work, and that's just how that's the nature

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Speaker 2: of this job. So I am really excited to dive

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Speaker 2: into this matchup.

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Speaker 3: Well, let's get to it.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder of the Favorite podcast is presented by

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Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five and now new Bet.

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Speaker 3: Three six five.

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Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,

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Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older and

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Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

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Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight eight hundred bets off

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Speaker 1: in Iowa terms. Condition restrictions apply all right, Kansas City

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Speaker 1: one and a half point.

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Speaker 3: Favorite over the Philadelphia Eagles and Super Bowl fifty nine.

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Speaker 1: Batt summer all here with John Matten and all that

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Speaker 1: build up and all of this hoop lage, John, Is

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Speaker 1: it as big as it seems?

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Speaker 4: I think it's bigger than it seems. And if you're

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Speaker 4: one of these players or one of these coaches, it's

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Speaker 4: the biggest thing in your life. And it's something that

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Speaker 4: there are thirty teams in the league, and there are

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Speaker 4: thirty teams or players and coaches, and every one of

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Speaker 4: them want to be here today. And then you say, well,

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Speaker 4: how big is that. It's even bigger than that, because

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Speaker 4: it's not just getting here today, but it's winning today.

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Speaker 4: And I think that the biggest difference in sports are

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Speaker 4: the biggest gap in sports is a difference between the

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Speaker 4: winner and the loser of the super Bowl. The winner,

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Speaker 4: you're world champion. They can never take it away from you,

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Speaker 4: you'll never forget it. The loser, they just get thrown

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Speaker 4: back in the pile.

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Speaker 1: The total is forty nine and a half the money line.

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Speaker 1: Since the number is so short, I do want to

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Speaker 1: give that as an option right now. It's anywhere minus

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Speaker 1: one twenty five to minus one thirty. I bet this

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Speaker 1: as soon as it opened at Kansas City minus one

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Speaker 1: and a half and Kansas City on the money line

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Speaker 1: at minus one twenty Simon Simon, I'm making Kansas City

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Speaker 1: on the money line. My exec decision, the choice between

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Speaker 1: the unthinkable and the impossible?

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Speaker 2: Are you at your honest execute number? Executive decision already

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Speaker 2: diving right in it's available.

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Speaker 1: Last week, you beat me to the punch, so I

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Speaker 1: felt like to get on a straight away.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't hate it, obviously. It's been interesting the

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Speaker 2: movement this week, and that's what I can't wait to

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Speaker 2: dive into, because we can do like a mini sharp

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Speaker 2: call here just about the early reads on you know

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Speaker 2: what I'm hearing and what guys are saying. And we

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Speaker 2: talked Sunday night the line was moving to two. I

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Speaker 2: thought we'd be sitting here, he'd be two and a half.

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Speaker 2: I don't know about you.

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Speaker 5: I did.

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Speaker 3: I'm actually shocked it's not a two right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I told you the hesitation to me was

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Speaker 2: going to be everyone like me that runs a model.

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Speaker 2: I would be shocked if they didn't have the Eagles

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Speaker 2: as a small favorite. And you know, coming into that

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Speaker 2: matchup last week, I had the Chiefs as a favorite,

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Speaker 2: and it really had a lot to do with I thought,

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Speaker 2: you know, Hurts was injured. I really did think that

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Speaker 2: knee was a real thing. You had to throw that out.

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Speaker 2: The clear was no issue on the knee at all.

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Speaker 2: I mean he had three rushing touchdowns. I know two

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Speaker 2: of them were touch pushes, but he had another rushing

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Speaker 2: touchdout was called back on a hold that really didn't

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Speaker 2: affect the play all. So you should have two long

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Speaker 2: rushing touchdowns. He did not look like an issue to me,

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Speaker 2: So definitely a went back and looked break it all down.

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Speaker 2: Do you have egos as a minus one favorite here?

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Speaker 2: So I do understand the respect from the you know,

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Speaker 2: heavy money coming in right now on the Eagles, because

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Speaker 2: you look at most books right now it is Chiefs money,

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Speaker 2: and I know in the action app it it says

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Speaker 2: it's right now it's all Egles money. So I know,

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Speaker 2: I know that could depending on where you're at and

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Speaker 2: what books you use, it could fluctuate. But you know

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Speaker 2: a couple of books I really respect. Right now, it

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Speaker 2: looks like the early money is coming in on this

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Speaker 2: Eagles team. So yeah, it's it's pretty interesting that the

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Speaker 2: professionals are taking this Eagle side, and it looks like

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Speaker 2: when you're looking at the Ticke account, that the public

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Speaker 2: is doing what me and chatter probably ended up doing

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Speaker 2: here and end up on the chief side because it

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Speaker 2: just feels like the safer side. And we understand the

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Speaker 2: Eagles are the better team. And I'm looking forward to

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Speaker 2: diving into all these numbers, but you know, the Eagles

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Speaker 2: to pull this off, Chad, they are going to have

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Speaker 2: to be historical because we've seen my homes now it

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Speaker 2: feels like the book is out, Like if you don't

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Speaker 2: kill them, if you don't if not up double digits, yea,

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Speaker 2: with two minutes to go with the ball, You're somehow

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Speaker 2: going to lose that game. I don't know how he

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Speaker 2: keeps doing it, like he just keeps finding these ways

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Speaker 2: to win and that you know, the calls go their way.

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Speaker 2: Everything we can talk we always talk about at the

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Speaker 2: end of the day, they make the plays when they

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Speaker 2: need to, like Spags makes the right blitz call when

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Speaker 2: he needs to. And you know this Eagles team, then

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Speaker 2: why I dive into it. It is better than that

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Speaker 2: twenty seventeen team that Eagles won the Super Bowl with.

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Speaker 2: And it's pretty easy to realize why Eagles had an

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Speaker 2: all pro quarterback Carson Wentz go down. They have their

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Speaker 2: all pro tackle and Jason Peters go down. Those are

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Speaker 2: two major hits their offense. And then defensively, you know

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Speaker 2: they had they had a bunch of injuries as well.

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Speaker 2: So this Eagles team is healthy, like this is a

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Speaker 2: team that might be getting Brandon Grahan back. So it's

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Speaker 2: it's pretty well. We dive into it the fact that

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Speaker 2: there are things the Eagles can do to beat this team.

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Speaker 2: And I know people talked about, well, it's the Fangs defense,

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Speaker 2: right then matter up, Well, you know it's the defense

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Speaker 2: basically rushes four. We know from the history that's how

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Speaker 2: you beat Mahomes. The only time we've seen him lose

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Speaker 2: in the Super Bowl against Tom Brady was when he

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Speaker 2: got pressured rushing four. That Tampa bead front was just

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Speaker 2: incredible because we talked, I mean you go back with

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Speaker 2: Star our podcast, we knew that game was gonna be

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Speaker 2: won in the trenches from the Tampa side because they're

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Speaker 2: left and right tackle ra out for the Chiefs. So

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Speaker 2: when you look at this, that's the edge to me

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Speaker 2: for the Eagles, right if you're looking for an edge

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Speaker 2: to take here, we know the secondary is incredible. Yet

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Speaker 2: I mean Quannon Mitchell in the playoffs so far twelve targets.

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Speaker 2: He's gonna up four catches for twenty one yards, two

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Speaker 2: interceptions of pass breakup. That's our rookie Quanyon Mitchell. That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Zach Brown, you know, could easily win Defensive Player of

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Speaker 2: the Year. He's had twenty six tackles, three tackles for

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Speaker 2: a loss, one force fumble, two FuMB was recovered, one interceptions,

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Speaker 2: two pass deflected. That's that's insane that he's been playing

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Speaker 2: dial level. So there are guys in the back end

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Speaker 2: that could be a difference maker. My whole point was

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Speaker 2: to getting that in Fangs defense. He he just rushes

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Speaker 2: before and if you go back historically, he's zero for

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Speaker 2: eight in his career against Patrick Mahomes. He's never beat Mahomes.

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Speaker 2: So it's like, Okay, well maybe he's never had the guys.

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Speaker 2: He's had some pretty good defenses. It's just Mahomes is

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Speaker 2: just Andy Reid and Mahomes are always one step ahead.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's really interesting breaking this game down

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Speaker 2: with those numbers where it's like the Eagles have the defenders,

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Speaker 2: but you know, Mahomes is gonna have a counter for it.

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Speaker 2: Like we saw, we joked Chad that play I can't

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Speaker 2: get over that rushing touchdown he had to win the game.

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Speaker 2: Even the Bills defenders talk about they've never seen that

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Speaker 2: on tape before. Guess where that game was. Guess where

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Speaker 2: that play was on tape the Bills. They stole it

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Speaker 2: from the Bills offense and ran against their defense. So

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Speaker 2: Josh Allen play, they ran with Patrick Mahomes and made

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Speaker 2: Travis Custer lee blacker. So that was just my long

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Speaker 2: win answer getting through that. I'm trying to find reasons

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Speaker 2: that back this Eagles team because it does come down

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Speaker 2: the defense. But it's tough to find the silver lining

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Speaker 2: here because Andy Reid and Patrickmwans always have a counter.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you feel the same way about that, chef.

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Speaker 3: Dude, you're reading my mind, and it's so funny.

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Speaker 1: Last year at this time, we were looking at the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs as two.

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Speaker 3: Point underdogs, I think, and.

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Speaker 1: Struggling with betting the Chiefs because we clearly thought the

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Speaker 1: Niners had a better roster, they were better at top

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Speaker 1: to bottom, right, But we went with the Chiefs because

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Speaker 1: you don't want to bet against Patrick Mahomes because Patrick

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Speaker 1: Mahomes is a dog, and I would emphasize The stats

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Speaker 1: we always talk about on Patrick Mahomes are not just

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Speaker 1: as a dog, They're as a favorite of three or

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Speaker 1: less or as a dog. So this is in that window.

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Speaker 1: But I was thinking about this this morning. The comps

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Speaker 1: are the same. I'm not betting against Patrick Mahomes. I'm

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Speaker 1: not betting against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid and Steve Spagnolo.

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Speaker 3: This is a Hall.

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Speaker 1: Of Fame trio who when Andy Reid has had a vehicle,

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Speaker 1: a vessel for his brilliance, like Patrick Mahomes, he has

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Speaker 1: pretty much been unstoppable. When I'm thinking about this game,

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Speaker 1: I'm in the office today and I was just talking

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Speaker 1: to the guy who runs our finance team, who happens

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Speaker 1: to be a huge Buffalo Bills fan, and I said

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Speaker 1: to him, we were talking about the game, obviously from

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Speaker 1: this past weekend, and I was like, look, at the

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Speaker 1: end of the day, over the next two weeks, do

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Speaker 1: I trust Andy Reid to game plan over Nick Sirianni

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Speaker 1: and Kellen Moore?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Do I trust Steve Spagnolo to game plan over Vic Fangio.

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Speaker 1: Maybe it's even, but Spagnolo has done it in the

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Speaker 1: biggest games, in the biggest circumstances, not just in Super Bowls,

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Speaker 1: but that the way he disguised that blitz against Josh

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Speaker 1: Allen on fourth and five was brilliant, had it in

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Speaker 1: his bag the whole game and held it until he

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Speaker 1: needed it.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: Do I trust Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts? Yes, so

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Speaker 1: like I get the roster stuff at the end of

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Speaker 1: the day, the people who need to make the decisions

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Speaker 1: when they matter most that I trust the most.

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Speaker 3: It's going to be on the Chiefs.

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Speaker 2: That's fair. And I do want to give flowers though,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I don't want to make this all just

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Speaker 2: love for this Chief side. Obviously, people know I'm a

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Speaker 2: dire Eagles fan, tons of respect to this team. It's

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Speaker 2: incredible what how he's built here, and Chad just said it,

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Speaker 2: like I'm the same view. This is no doubt the

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Speaker 2: best team of football. They have the best roster roster

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Speaker 2: and it all comes down to health. Right. They've been

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Speaker 2: able to stay healthy and that is the key. We

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Speaker 2: talk all the time to getting to this point in

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Speaker 2: the season, and you know, Jalen Hurts and again I

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Speaker 2: love Chad. Chad went for being one of my best

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Speaker 2: men and my future wedding in fifteen years to be

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Speaker 2: not invited. When he left out of his top ten

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Speaker 2: this past summer, I was so mad at Chad. I

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Speaker 2: couldn't believe he did it. I felt portrayal because it

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Speaker 2: just felt like they hate I had gone too far

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Speaker 2: with Hurts and carried over it a little bit to

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Speaker 2: this season because people wanted in to throw up, throw

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Speaker 2: for more yards and score more touchdowns. And you know,

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Speaker 2: we've seen some amazing stats these last twenty four hours

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Speaker 2: on Jailen Hurts, and I'm gonna read off a couple

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Speaker 2: just because I want to put people in perspective of

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Speaker 2: just how high the bar is set for people sometimes

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Speaker 2: and it doesn't really make sense because it's like it

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Speaker 2: feels like you're watching a totally different game. So, last

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Speaker 2: three seasons, including playoffs, Patrick Mahomes Jalen Hurts, let's compare

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Speaker 2: their stats. Patrick Mahomes has forty eight wins, ten losses,

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Speaker 2: pretty good. Jalen Hurts forty two wins, twelve losses. Their

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Speaker 2: total yards per game Mahomes two ninety, pretty impressive, Jalen

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Speaker 2: Hurts two sixty. Okay. Mahomes total touchdowns one to seventeen

296
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Speaker 2: forty three turnovers. Jalen Hurts one hundred and twenty one touchdowns,

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Speaker 2: thirty nine turnovers, So you did better than that stat.

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Speaker 2: Passer rating Mahomes ninety eight point five, passer rating Hurts

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Speaker 2: ninety seven point five, basically identical stats across the board.

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Speaker 2: One is viewed as the greatest quarterback ever. One is

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Speaker 2: not a top ten quarterback to Chad Moment. So that's

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Speaker 2: what I mean. It's it's tough where I get the hate,

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Speaker 2: but you just go through all these stats and it's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts is the eighth quarterback in NFL history reached

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Speaker 2: multiple Super Bowls in their first five seasons. He joins

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Speaker 2: Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner,

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Speaker 2: Troy Aikman, John Oway. Okay, maybe Russell Wilson want to

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Speaker 2: make the Hall of Fame. Everyone else I just read

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Speaker 2: on that list is a Hall of Famer. So it's like,

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Speaker 2: I get the hate and the doubt, but there this

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Speaker 2: is the team in the quarterback that I do think

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Speaker 2: could pull it off. But this is a long win

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Speaker 2: away of getting I don't think I'm gonna put my

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Speaker 2: money on it. I think I'm with Chad here and

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Speaker 2: just the fact that it's Mahomes and it's under three

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Speaker 2: in this exact spot, and I was hoping Evan was

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Speaker 2: gonna be here for this little part because I saw

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Speaker 2: a crazy stat that mahomes Is was coming into the season.

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Speaker 2: He was eleven to zero. Don't and true dome games

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Speaker 2: in his career eleven and oh he's now fifteen and

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Speaker 2: oh through this whole season, and don't.

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Speaker 1: Get Evan to I mean, certainly Evan will be on

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Speaker 1: Thursday and we can we can have yeah.

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Speaker 2: Because that just blew my mind where it's like I

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Speaker 2: knew how dominant he was in indoor games and how

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Speaker 2: rare was him to play it right, because you know,

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Speaker 2: no one is division as home games. I know people

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Speaker 2: count their chargers. That's actually not considered a true home game.

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Speaker 2: I know, as stupid as that sounds, but the Saints Dome,

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Speaker 2: this is as dome as it gets. It's the super Dome,

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Speaker 2: so it's wild where it's if it's perfect, no wind,

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Speaker 2: no bullshit, people always like, well, how good he is

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Speaker 2: in the cold? Me and Chad loved that stet right

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Speaker 2: sixteen and two, when it's below free degrees the man

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Speaker 2: could be might be fifteen to zero in Dome games.

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Speaker 2: It's just all of his numbers, all this stuff just breaks,

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Speaker 2: all this stuff, all the work I put into it.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I wanted to find reasons the back to

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Speaker 2: the Sequels team. I want to believe in Jalen Hurts,

340
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Speaker 2: want to believe in Saquon Barkley, this wrong game after

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Speaker 2: seeing Cooks just do whatever the hell he wanted. Again,

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Speaker 2: it's this Chiefs team last week, Like this is a

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Speaker 2: good matchup for the run game for this Eagles team.

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Speaker 2: But like me and Chad, no, and when it's the

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Speaker 2: fourth quarter, even if the Eagles are up a touchdown,

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Speaker 2: Mahomes is gonna find a way. If you let him

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Speaker 2: live long enough, he will find a way. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: this is a really tough spot to be in. I

349
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Speaker 2: was really hoping we would come in here and it'd

350
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Speaker 2: be two and a half. Three this Eagle's number, And

351
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Speaker 2: to me, same with the Bills. I would have been

352
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Speaker 2: comfortable taking the three on this dog one and a half.

353
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Speaker 2: I get the respect from the pros and what their

354
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Speaker 2: models are telling them, I just can't do it. Once

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Speaker 2: it's crossed that threshold with Mahomes. Once You're getting a

356
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Speaker 2: great number of mahomes at one and a half, and

357
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Speaker 2: you can do what Chad's doing. There's no dishonor in

358
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Speaker 2: taking the money line, like you want to play it

359
00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:43,000
Speaker 2: as safe as possible, because last week that game could

360
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Speaker 2: have easily landed on one. Like I know, Chad was

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Speaker 2: just like me doing that crazy math where it's like,

362
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Speaker 2: oh my god, they missed a two pointer, They're gonna

363
00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:51,320
Speaker 2: kick a field goal. This is gonna land on one.

364
00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:53,720
Speaker 2: There's no dishonor in taking the money line there. But

365
00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:55,919
Speaker 2: to me, I don't have fear and taking the one

366
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Speaker 2: and a half of mahomes. We've just seen super Bowl

367
00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:00,960
Speaker 2: in its entire history, it's only had one game landing

368
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Speaker 2: between three. So we're talking a long history of the

369
00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:05,840
Speaker 2: Super Bowl and only one time in its history is

370
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Speaker 2: ever landing between three. So I'm good with taking the

371
00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:11,439
Speaker 2: risks taking the one and a half. I just I

372
00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:13,600
Speaker 2: believe in this Chiefs team, believe in the number, and

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Speaker 2: I know I hate to do it. I hate to

374
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Speaker 2: see my team lose, and I know it's gonna hurt,

375
00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:20,120
Speaker 2: But you just have to trust Mahmes and Andy Reid

376
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:21,920
Speaker 2: and Spags. Like you just said, in the spot. They

377
00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:24,359
Speaker 2: always find a way. You just gotta throw the numbers

378
00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:26,720
Speaker 2: out here. People. It's so tough to do. But to me,

379
00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:29,120
Speaker 2: there's only one side to take, and is the Chiefs.

380
00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:33,320
Speaker 1: Is Chiefs minus one and a half yours, Sigmon says, when.

381
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Speaker 2: We do, I'll do it. Yeah, let's I mean, we

382
00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:41,160
Speaker 2: only have so many options, right, there's like two. There's

383
00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,000
Speaker 2: only a side in the total here. So I'm with you, Yes,

384
00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:46,080
Speaker 2: Simon says, give me, gimme Chiefs minus one and a half.

385
00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:49,320
Speaker 1: What's interesting to me about this game? You know, we

386
00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:52,479
Speaker 1: can talk a little bit about the matchup. I'm excited

387
00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:55,280
Speaker 1: that we're on the same side, as is customary.

388
00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:57,320
Speaker 2: Honestly, I wanted to go against that. I was looking

389
00:18:57,359 --> 00:18:58,240
Speaker 2: for a reason that bad.

390
00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:00,399
Speaker 1: You knew that, you knew that I love thee and

391
00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:03,280
Speaker 1: I was. I was honestly nervous. Like I thought about

392
00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:06,160
Speaker 1: it yesterday, I thought about it this morning. I'm like, man,

393
00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:08,280
Speaker 1: I hope Simon's on my side. I know he's doing

394
00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:09,959
Speaker 1: a lot of work the past couple of days, Like,

395
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:13,199
Speaker 1: I know he's gonna I knew you were gonna have

396
00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 1: the Eagles probably at minus two in this game. If

397
00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:19,160
Speaker 1: I had to bet that's where you're number landed right.

398
00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:22,920
Speaker 2: No, actually, and it just Eagles minus one so one O.

399
00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:24,760
Speaker 2: Thankly that is value. That means you're getting two and

400
00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:25,160
Speaker 2: a half points.

401
00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:27,159
Speaker 1: I think you're getting two and a half points of

402
00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:30,200
Speaker 1: value according to everybody's model, which is why people are

403
00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:30,639
Speaker 1: betting it.

404
00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:34,639
Speaker 2: But guy Sean Shan's got it at Chiefs minus one

405
00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,480
Speaker 2: and a half. So Sean Sean definitely respects the chief side.

406
00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,680
Speaker 2: But yeah, most most pros I've talked to, but which

407
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:42,840
Speaker 2: I just said is true, most of them are minus one,

408
00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:44,720
Speaker 2: minus one and a half on the Eagles, even some

409
00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:46,960
Speaker 2: have minus two. So a lot of respect on the

410
00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:48,080
Speaker 2: Eagle side.

411
00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:54,399
Speaker 1: Other than my just firm belief in Andy Reid, Steve Spegnolo,

412
00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:59,720
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes and getting them is basically to win the game.

413
00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:05,280
Speaker 1: A couple things about the matchup that stuck out to

414
00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:08,159
Speaker 1: me that we're in favor of the Eagles that I

415
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:14,080
Speaker 1: think are being underrepresented potentially in the market or when

416
00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:18,639
Speaker 1: it comes to evaluating the Chiefs. Everyone talks about the

417
00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:20,400
Speaker 1: Eagles rush and it is dominant.

418
00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:22,719
Speaker 3: Jalen Carter is unreal.

419
00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:25,879
Speaker 1: Brian Baldinger, who I like to follow, he had a

420
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:30,160
Speaker 1: video clip of Jalen Carter some guy trying to undercut

421
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:33,240
Speaker 1: him and Jalen Carter flipped like literally just hurtled the

422
00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:35,520
Speaker 1: guy on the way to the quarterback. It was like,

423
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:39,920
Speaker 1: the guy is such a freaking nature. But one thing

424
00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 1: that I think the Chiefs have done which a lot

425
00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:45,760
Speaker 1: of people have recognized but not talked enough about. They're

426
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:49,400
Speaker 1: not a downfield passing team. And because their offensive line

427
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,120
Speaker 1: is just not very good right now, like Mahomes worst

428
00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:54,639
Speaker 1: QBI he's ever had in his career, sacked more than

429
00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 1: he's ever been in his career. The brilliance of Andy

430
00:20:57,280 --> 00:21:00,640
Speaker 1: Reid is that he's changed the offense and so there's

431
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:04,439
Speaker 1: such a quick passing offense now fifty six percent of

432
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 1: their receiving yards came on yards after the catch. So

433
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:10,640
Speaker 1: part of me feels like some of the matchup advantages

434
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:14,720
Speaker 1: that the Eagles have, both as a coverage unit and

435
00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,200
Speaker 1: as a rush unit are mitigated because of the way

436
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:18,879
Speaker 1: the Chiefs play offense.

437
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:21,000
Speaker 3: Now agree or disagree.

438
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,320
Speaker 2: Agree, and I do want to give flowers to Nolan

439
00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:26,280
Speaker 2: Smith Junior, who you know, Jade Daniels is one of

440
00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 2: the best athletes I've ever seen, and he somehow was

441
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 2: able to catch him a few times in that game,

442
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 2: and you know he is a difference maker coming off

443
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:37,160
Speaker 2: that edge. Like we talked about that Eagles. If there's

444
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:40,159
Speaker 2: a defense that can stop him, my homes this is

445
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:43,440
Speaker 2: the defense. Like this is in my lifetime, the best

446
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:45,919
Speaker 2: defense Eagles I've ever had, Like the how he hit

447
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 2: on every rookie pick and then basically got an All

448
00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:51,120
Speaker 2: Pro for three million, four million dollars in the middle

449
00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 2: of the field at linebacker and braun So it's it's

450
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,199
Speaker 2: all come together, like this is the perfect thing. But

451
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 2: I think Chad knows where I'm coming from where my life,

452
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 2: Like he says, there was hesitation last year in the

453
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:06,199
Speaker 2: Super Bowl. As soon as that Ravens game ended. I

454
00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:10,400
Speaker 2: didn't stop betting that Chiefs number until that that Friday, Like.

455
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:12,240
Speaker 3: Hes that was my hesitation.

456
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:16,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say, like I was like, the fucking

457
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:20,199
Speaker 2: numbers don't matter. That was the best Ravens team that

458
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:22,440
Speaker 2: was perfectly set up to beat that chief That Chiefs

459
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:24,400
Speaker 2: team was not good last year, Like this Chiefs team.

460
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,120
Speaker 2: People are like, well this team isn't that good. They

461
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,480
Speaker 2: fucking are. This is a better Chiefs team at any

462
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:32,439
Speaker 2: point than they were last year. You know, it's just

463
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:34,320
Speaker 2: what we talk about. It's the game within the game

464
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:37,440
Speaker 2: that Mahomes plays with Andy Reid, and it's like it's

465
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 2: it's so tough because it's like this is this Eagles

466
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,119
Speaker 2: team is perfectly lined up to beat this team, like

467
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:45,960
Speaker 2: they have no weakness honestly, like like we joked about it,

468
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 2: their biggest weakness is Hurts. Honestly, when you when you

469
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,320
Speaker 2: really do break it down, it's like, if Hurts doesn't

470
00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 2: show up, he's gonna need to make big time thirds

471
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:56,159
Speaker 2: in this game. They will lose this game because the

472
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 2: running attack, even the receivers, they will be able to

473
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 2: get open. I mean Matt Collins was able to get

474
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:03,640
Speaker 2: open last week. You think aj or smith A're gonna

475
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 2: have issues getting open. No, like they're gonna be able

476
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,400
Speaker 2: to scheme it open. But yeah, when I really dive

477
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 2: into it again, we didn't even talk to the total yet.

478
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 2: Like that's another spot. I really love the Total. I

479
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,680
Speaker 2: love the under This does feel like this is going

480
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:20,399
Speaker 2: to be an ugly defensive type of game from both sides,

481
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,359
Speaker 2: and coming into it, the public is thinking the other

482
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:25,120
Speaker 2: way in my opinion, Like to me, I haven't really

483
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,159
Speaker 2: looked at it, but they're going to be hammering the

484
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 2: over because the Eagles just put up fifty five points.

485
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:32,000
Speaker 2: Chiefs just had their highest scoring game of the year

486
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,719
Speaker 2: last week thirty two points. It's really that simple when

487
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:37,159
Speaker 2: you break it down, like the public overreacts to what

488
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:40,119
Speaker 2: they just saw, where historical data tells us teams that

489
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 2: just like went crazy in the conference championship game tend

490
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 2: to struggle in the Super Bowl, right because it's like

491
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 2: you come off or playing a perfect game and it's

492
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:50,679
Speaker 2: going to feel different, right, every little thing. Like we

493
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 2: talked about last week and Ochad thought the Eagles left

494
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:55,479
Speaker 2: a couple of players in the field. When I go

495
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 2: back and watch it, they got so lucky in so

496
00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 2: many different ways, like even that opening touchdown, you know,

497
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 2: Washington getting sucked in and triple you know, Bobby Wagner

498
00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 2: tripping over his own guy. Yeah, missing the tackle, Saqua,

499
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:09,480
Speaker 2: I'm breaking the tackles fluky like no one No one's

500
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 2: like model is gonna be like, oh no, that should

501
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 2: have been a touchdown. No, it shouldn't have. Like a

502
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:14,719
Speaker 2: lot of things need to break their way for all

503
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:17,879
Speaker 2: those points scored in that game. So yeah, like we

504
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 2: were talking about right now when I feel like it's

505
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 2: gonna be a low scoring, ugly, drag it out type

506
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 2: of game once again favors Mahomes, Like, that's exactly what

507
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,199
Speaker 2: the Chiefs want to play. They've been living in that

508
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:31,119
Speaker 2: this whole season, just pulling people down in the mud,

509
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 2: just making them try to wiggle their way out of it.

510
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:35,639
Speaker 2: And the Eagles they have, like I said, they have

511
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:37,640
Speaker 2: the team to do it. The one loss that really

512
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:39,919
Speaker 2: stuck out to me they had all year was that

513
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:41,920
Speaker 2: Josh Allen loss. I mean, I know it was way

514
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 2: early in the season, but you saw how they can

515
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 2: do it right with a mobile quarterback. That does give

516
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:49,439
Speaker 2: the Chiefs fits. Like that element of it is an

517
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:52,119
Speaker 2: issue to the Chiefs defense because there's so many different

518
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:53,879
Speaker 2: options you can run with it, and we saw it

519
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 2: this past week. I mean, it was there for Josh

520
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 2: Allen to steal it once again. Why because he's a

521
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 2: mobile quarterback and they do struggle with so there are

522
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 2: ways to do it. But I mean you can just

523
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 2: tell like me and Chad, we just we've been burned,

524
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 2: We've learned our lessons. We feel like we're in the

525
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 2: moments of history. Don't overthink a right Chad. That's what

526
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 2: I keep telling myself. Take chiefs at a great number, Mahomes.

527
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 2: I mean, Chad knows these stats. I just want to

528
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 2: read it again. I mean we've been talking all week.

529
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 2: I know Evans might bring it up to on extended rest,

530
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:25,200
Speaker 2: Mahomes is thirty and four straight up in his career

531
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 2: on eight plus days of rest. His only losses is

532
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:31,200
Speaker 2: one of them is two. Jalen hurts like it hurts,

533
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 2: did do it one time? You're asking a lightning to

534
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 2: strike twice here because it's only half four times Brady

535
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 2: Matt Ryan Jalen hurts in O'Connell Mahomes. In the playoffs,

536
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:46,880
Speaker 2: his record Chad seventeen and three eighty five percent straight up.

537
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 2: This man, we just it doesn't make sense. The only

538
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 2: the only person he's behind. I love the staff from

539
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,199
Speaker 2: Evan is bart Starr, who's nine on one straight up

540
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 2: in the playoffs. That's what we're talking here. People. It's

541
00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:59,440
Speaker 2: like the greatest quarterback ever though.

542
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 3: They quarterback who's three pete he's chasing.

543
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:04,119
Speaker 2: I love it. Yeah, I don't even think of that.

544
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 2: It's so true. So yeah, it's we know we're sitting

545
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 2: in history. Chad's embraced it. I'm still fighting it because

546
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 2: I am just to my dying breath being like, no,

547
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:16,320
Speaker 2: this can't be true. I can't see my favorite team

548
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 2: lose two super Bowls in three years. But it does

549
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 2: feel like we're living in history and this is Mahomes's moment.

550
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:25,879
Speaker 2: So yeah, Chad, I again. I'm trying to find a

551
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:27,880
Speaker 2: way people. I'm hoping to come in Thursday next week,

552
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:29,919
Speaker 2: on Tuesday and be like, oh, I found this. This

553
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 2: is why you should take the egos at this point.

554
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 2: But no, the number is gone the other ways. It's

555
00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 2: a good number on Mahomes at this point. The value

556
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:38,919
Speaker 2: is on Mahomes. Let's take Mahomes here together.

557
00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 1: Brother, Oh my god, I feel like maybe I'll be

558
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 1: your best man again again.

559
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 3: You're back in time you find love.

560
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 1: By the time you find love, you'll have forgotten all

561
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:53,160
Speaker 1: about this. You'll have been in like so many stupors.

562
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,000
Speaker 3: By then you'll be like, I love Chad. We were

563
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 3: on the Chiefs together.

564
00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:59,359
Speaker 1: Uh, all right, there's a couple more things that I have,

565
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:03,119
Speaker 1: but I feel like they played nicely into Uh. Doctor

566
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 1: Nick and some of his regression analysis and.

567
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:06,639
Speaker 3: The luck range and get some.

568
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:12,639
Speaker 1: Let's get let's get an actual mathematician in here. Reminder

569
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 1: to everybody listening, our bet three six five Super Bowl

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575
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576
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588
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Speaker 1: how many roads must a man walk down before you

590
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Speaker 1: a great time to bet on big island games. There's

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Speaker 1: no bigger island game than the super Bowl. I want

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632
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Speaker 1: also seen Nick. I'm convinced me he'll be on the

633
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Speaker 1: Super Bowl show. He crushes it with the luck rankings. Nick,

634
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:23,240
Speaker 1: welcome to the show. Immediately. Just tell people the advantages

635
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636
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637
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 5: What Happens Live is awesome.

638
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 6: We usually go from the two minute warning through halftime

639
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 6: and we're just firing off live bets. I have built

640
00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 6: a proprietary model which takes in and ingests Sean Kerner's

641
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 6: pregame projections. Right, we have the most accurate projecting guy

642
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Speaker 6: on the planet here takes us pregame projections and then

643
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Speaker 6: translates those into in game projections and we.

644
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:55,440
Speaker 5: Just fire off bets.

645
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 6: Whenever the model shows value, it looks at the current

646
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 6: game state, score, different what the money line is, all

647
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 6: that stuff, and kind of figures out how things will

648
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 6: develop for the rest of the game. The number of

649
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 6: expected plays each team's.

650
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 5: Pass run ratio, et cetera.

651
00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 6: And we've bet and I have to say this, I'm

652
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 6: really excited because we have found this year in the

653
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 6: Action Network Discord. So if you want to join Discord

654
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 6: dot gg slash Action Network in the Action Network Discord,

655
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 6: ma'be doing these bet what Happens live shows. We have

656
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 6: found an edge that has hit in one hundred percent

657
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 6: of the playoff games and has hit like eighty percent

658
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 6: year and my model shows it's about a seventy five

659
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 6: eighty percent bet every time we bet it and the

660
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 6: books have not adjusted.

661
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:41,000
Speaker 5: I'm not going to say what it is because we

662
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 5: can't be.

663
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 6: Given away, you know, edges like that and ruining it

664
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 6: for the biggest game of the year.

665
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 5: But everybody in the Discord knows it. And if you want.

666
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 6: To, you know, exploit that live edge with us, make

667
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 6: sure you join the disc Board. We're gonna try to

668
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 6: explore some other ways as well to air bet what

669
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 6: Happens live outside the Discord as well, but definitely join

670
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 6: the Action Network Discord.

671
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 1: Speaking of Super Bowl props, a lot of people have

672
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 1: been asking when we're dropping our prop episodes featuring Nick,

673
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 1: Sean Kerner, Chris Raybond, Grant Niffer. Because these have hit

674
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 1: at an obscene rate these last few Super Bowls, we're

675
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:20,440
Speaker 1: doing those as two sets of Wednesday live shows. Try

676
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:23,440
Speaker 1: to catch these live as these numbers get crushed as

677
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 1: soon as any of these guys talk about them. We

678
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 1: go live in the Action Network YouTube channel and on

679
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 1: Twitter at Action Network HQ Wednesday the twenty ninth and

680
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:36,719
Speaker 1: Wednesday February fifth. Each time we'll do a part one

681
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 1: at four pm Eastern with Doctor Nick and Grant, and

682
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,240
Speaker 1: then part two with Raybound and Kerner at six pm.

683
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 1: Marcter Calendars super Bowl Props Live shows next two Wednesdays,

684
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 1: four pm, six pm. Action Network YouTube page, Action Network

685
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 1: HQ on Twitter. All right, here's my question for you

686
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 1: before we get into all your luck ranking stuff, which

687
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 1: crushed by the way, like totals, we're twenty one to twelve.

688
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 1: You know, over the course of the season, there's a

689
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:11,560
Speaker 1: lot of turnover regression that I think is possible in

690
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:15,760
Speaker 1: this game. The Eagles have a plus ten turnover margin

691
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 1: heading into the Super Bowl through the playoffs. That's the

692
00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 1: best in I think twenty five years. On Sunday, the Chiefs,

693
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 1: while they've won eight games prior without a turnover. They

694
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 1: had one turnover, the Bills had none. The Bills, according

695
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 1: to Mike count, had six turnover worthy plays, two new

696
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:39,920
Speaker 1: interceptions from Josh Allen in the first series, and they

697
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:43,200
Speaker 1: had four fumbles they were covered on their own. Do

698
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:47,799
Speaker 1: you think there is some turnover regression here that could

699
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:48,879
Speaker 1: play a factor in the game.

700
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:52,560
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean it's certainly possible, right, And one of

701
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:54,719
Speaker 6: the things is you do make your own luck. So

702
00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 6: a lot of what the Eagles did, I think it

703
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:59,360
Speaker 6: was every fumble that hit the ground against the Commanders,

704
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:02,960
Speaker 6: the Eagles rec So you know, there is an element

705
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 6: if you make your own luck. But when the ball

706
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 6: hits the ground, it can bounce in funny ways, So

707
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:09,360
Speaker 6: there certainly is an element of luck as well that

708
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 6: you aren't creating. But look, I mean, if you're forcing fumbles,

709
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 6: you're bound to recover.

710
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:15,960
Speaker 5: Some of those fumbles.

711
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 6: So if the Eagles keep forcing fumbles, that'll bode well

712
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:22,319
Speaker 6: for them because they're still going to recover, you know,

713
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 6: around sixty percent of them or so. I think the

714
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:27,320
Speaker 6: team that forces a fumble tends to recover around sixty

715
00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 6: percent long term. But that said, yeah, certainly Eagles came

716
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:35,720
Speaker 6: in over expectation versus the Commanders, Chiefs came in under

717
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 6: turnover expectation versus the Bills. But that's also, you know,

718
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 6: just each team's most recent game, so you got to

719
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:46,960
Speaker 6: kind of look at the longer term statistics and probably

720
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,879
Speaker 6: a little bit of luck favoring the Eagles, so they've

721
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 6: been a little bit more lucky than the Chiefs and

722
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:54,560
Speaker 6: the turnover department. But you know, to me, it's not

723
00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 6: a super major factor in luck specifically for this game.

724
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:05,240
Speaker 3: How did the luck rankings grade this game?

725
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 6: Yeah, this is an interesting one the luck rankings. These

726
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:13,840
Speaker 6: two teams are one spot apart in our luck rankings,

727
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:17,880
Speaker 6: so there's no luck edge on the side and the

728
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 6: luck total and in the playoffs, anything above a one

729
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 6: and a quarter below minus one and a quarter would

730
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:28,439
Speaker 6: be a luckover or a luck under. Well, this game

731
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:31,319
Speaker 6: is minus zero point one, so no.

732
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:35,279
Speaker 5: Luck on either. And here's the funny thing. Two years

733
00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 5: ago when these teams.

734
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:39,760
Speaker 6: Played, they were one place apart and the luck total

735
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 6: was minus zero point one. It is a repeat of

736
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 6: twenty twenty two, which is incredible. I couldn't believe it

737
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:48,080
Speaker 6: when I saw that.

738
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:52,280
Speaker 1: Well Son and to me, that kind of plays into

739
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:58,680
Speaker 1: your theory exactly, like this is a grinded out last

740
00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 1: team with the ball potentially wins, and we're kind of

741
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:07,000
Speaker 1: just betting that the Chiefs will be the last ones

742
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:07,479
Speaker 1: with the ball.

743
00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 5: I guess yeah.

744
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 2: And it kind of scares of what Nick talking about

745
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 2: because that last time they played in the Super Bowl,

746
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:15,000
Speaker 2: obviously that was an easy over. That game went way over.

747
00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 2: So to me, what he talked about, though, touch a

748
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:20,360
Speaker 2: litt bit on that I expect from both teams is

749
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:22,800
Speaker 2: red zone regression. Right there both have just been scoring

750
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:24,640
Speaker 2: a ton of touchdowns in the red zone, where the

751
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 2: Eagles are not that team, right, They're usually a team

752
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 2: that it does struggle once they get in the red zone.

753
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:31,839
Speaker 2: This past season, right this playoffs have been much better.

754
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 2: And on the flip side, the Chiefs, it's been insane

755
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:37,360
Speaker 2: how that much they've just been scoring in the red zone, right,

756
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 2: They've not been taking the threes that they have that

757
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:43,279
Speaker 2: they did during the regular season. So to me, the

758
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:47,359
Speaker 2: turn of regression is a little scary because that could

759
00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 2: make for some short fields and we are talking about that,

760
00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 2: but I think it playcates to both these teams that

761
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:54,319
Speaker 2: they're just both quarterbacks are so smart protecting the ball

762
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 2: that they know that if they don't turn the ball over,

763
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:58,080
Speaker 2: they're probably gonna win the game, right if they just

764
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:00,520
Speaker 2: put their team in the best position. So that is

765
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 2: kind of the weird part with this Eagles team is

766
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:05,400
Speaker 2: that I do think they've been really lucky with the turnovers.

767
00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 2: But like Nick said, they've been making their own looks right.

768
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:09,759
Speaker 2: They've been going after the ball. They've been punching the

769
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:11,719
Speaker 2: ball out, not just in that snow game, but in

770
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:15,440
Speaker 2: that last game against Washington on the flip side, Washington

771
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:16,840
Speaker 2: was trying to punch the ball and they just couldn't

772
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:18,800
Speaker 2: do it right. That's the type of thing it is

773
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 2: where it's like, you know, when you have an all

774
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 2: pro like Saquon, you can punch all you want. The

775
00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:25,600
Speaker 2: dude is so strong that boy ain't coming out. So

776
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:28,520
Speaker 2: I agree they had been lucky, but it's definitely the

777
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:30,279
Speaker 2: players that have in the field that make that luck.

778
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 1: One more thing that plays to why I like the

779
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 1: Chiefs is I do think if it's a close game

780
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:44,000
Speaker 1: and they get the ball with four minutes left, I

781
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:45,880
Speaker 1: don't have a ton of confidence the Eagles are getting

782
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:50,200
Speaker 1: the ball back to me that plays into the strength

783
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:53,680
Speaker 1: of who the Chiefs are and why you want to

784
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:55,960
Speaker 1: be on the side of the Chiefs. Nick, I don't

785
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:58,080
Speaker 1: know if you have any thoughts yet. I know you're

786
00:38:58,120 --> 00:38:59,799
Speaker 1: gonna have thoughts on props that I want to get to.

787
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:03,000
Speaker 1: But like, have you thought about the side or the

788
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 1: total in this game independent of the luck rankings?

789
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:10,319
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean in terms of satura are total. It's

790
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 6: the thing that keeps printing is those Chiefs second half unders.

791
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:15,200
Speaker 5: Even in that high.

792
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:17,200
Speaker 6: Scoring game against the Bills just this last week, if

793
00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:19,160
Speaker 6: you got your twenty four and a half, if you

794
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 6: got the under twenty four and a half, it landed

795
00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:23,359
Speaker 6: on twenty four, right, And I talked about that. On't

796
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:25,880
Speaker 6: convinced me get that twenty four and a half at

797
00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:27,640
Speaker 6: minus one twenty if you got to pay for it,

798
00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:30,560
Speaker 6: and it landed on twenty four. But the Eagles they're

799
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:32,759
Speaker 6: a possession team, right. They possessed the ball thirty two

800
00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:34,920
Speaker 6: minutes per game number one in the NFL. And then

801
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:37,520
Speaker 6: the Chiefs, like you said, in the second half, if

802
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 6: they have the ball, they're gonna make it so the

803
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:41,200
Speaker 6: Eagles don't.

804
00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:41,799
Speaker 5: Get the ball back.

805
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 6: So I think a second half under if you want

806
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:47,440
Speaker 6: to go with you the luck totals minus zero point one.

807
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:49,759
Speaker 6: There's no luck on the over or the under, and

808
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:53,359
Speaker 6: in the Super Bowl. Since we have started our luck

809
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:57,920
Speaker 6: rankings in twenty eighteen, the luck total anytime it's been

810
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 6: above or below minus one and a half or plus

811
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:01,560
Speaker 6: or sorry one in a quarter or plus one in

812
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:05,239
Speaker 6: a quarter has hit. The only one that didn't hit

813
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:07,480
Speaker 6: was this minus point one two years ago when it

814
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 6: went over. So don't factor in the luck. Just analyze

815
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:13,440
Speaker 6: this game on its own merits, because the luck rank

816
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 6: can say nothing about it. But those second half unders

817
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:18,239
Speaker 6: for the Chiefs just keep printing this year.

818
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:21,399
Speaker 2: And the only reason I didn't make the over under,

819
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:24,720
Speaker 2: my Simon says, is just because you can be patient

820
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:27,320
Speaker 2: with this total. Like we talked about it, it's heavy over

821
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:30,359
Speaker 2: public money right now, and in professional betters are taking

822
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 2: the over. So to me, I mean Nick Tuckle the

823
00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:35,319
Speaker 2: time about key numbers. This could go through a key

824
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:37,440
Speaker 2: number of fifty to fifty one and a half, like

825
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 2: you might if you're patient, or you might be able

826
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:41,319
Speaker 2: to get a really nice number. Obviously, if you want

827
00:40:41,360 --> 00:40:42,759
Speaker 2: to take it now for nine and a half, I

828
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 2: have no issue. That's a great number to get this

829
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:47,360
Speaker 2: under on. But I think what Nick's talking about here

830
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:48,799
Speaker 2: is that you can afford to be patient. If you

831
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 2: like that second half under, you might get another extra

832
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:53,879
Speaker 2: point if you keep waiting. The public keeps hamming this over.

833
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:56,399
Speaker 2: So it's really interesting. All the money right now, it's

834
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:58,239
Speaker 2: just all of it. Any book you look at I'm

835
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:01,440
Speaker 2: looking at is on the over, So it's interesting. Cha

836
00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:02,759
Speaker 2: had to tell it at forty nine and a half.

837
00:41:02,960 --> 00:41:04,240
Speaker 2: We're two days in. It's just holding.

838
00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:07,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I'm actually shocked, right it opened at fifty

839
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:10,799
Speaker 1: and a half, immediately got that down. Hasn't gone up

840
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:12,560
Speaker 1: from the forty nine and a half number. These numbers

841
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:15,880
Speaker 1: are all basically painted like everyone's minus in one and

842
00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:19,440
Speaker 1: a half, everyone's forty nine and a half. Which is

843
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:21,640
Speaker 1: why I'm going to be really curious to see if

844
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:25,239
Speaker 1: it budges. I don't You're right, Simon. If it's gonna budge,

845
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:30,440
Speaker 1: it'll be much closer to the weekend, potentially Sunday afternoon,

846
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:35,840
Speaker 1: four o'clock, when half of New Orleans is piling into

847
00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:40,240
Speaker 1: a legal sports book somewhere or hammering their apps, including

848
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:42,960
Speaker 1: bet three sixty five because it's legal in Louisiana, and

849
00:41:43,360 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 1: they are just going bonkers betting the over, you know,

850
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:50,920
Speaker 1: and potentially betting the Chiefs, which sets up you know,

851
00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:52,680
Speaker 1: let's say it does get to three. By the way,

852
00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 1: let's say it does get to three. At that point,

853
00:41:56,120 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 1: if you've bet the one and a half, we throw

854
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:02,319
Speaker 1: a little on the Eagles at plus three and try

855
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 1: to get the middle.

856
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:06,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, even if you're trying to play the middle, you

857
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:07,400
Speaker 2: can do it at two and a half. Right, the

858
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:10,360
Speaker 2: three doesn't matter so much you're around the push. But

859
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:13,840
Speaker 2: I think the books have made their move at this point.

860
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:16,040
Speaker 2: The only way I can see this going now is flipping.

861
00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:19,359
Speaker 2: I don't think maybe I'll get to two. I don't

862
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:20,799
Speaker 2: think i'll touch two and a half. I could see

863
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:22,359
Speaker 2: this either flipping or just staying one a half at

864
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 2: this point, just because they found the resistance right when

865
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:27,240
Speaker 2: they moved down from two to one and a half.

866
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:29,839
Speaker 2: That just shows the resistance of really smart money coming

867
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:31,680
Speaker 2: on the Eagles. So I think the books are gonna

868
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 2: be happy in their position.

869
00:42:33,239 --> 00:42:39,239
Speaker 1: Hi, Nick, you've already identified some props. I know that

870
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 1: you're racing through your research. Give me some ideas here

871
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:45,640
Speaker 1: what you're looking at so far?

872
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:50,240
Speaker 6: Yeah, well, you know, obviously the game's just finished on Sunday,

873
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:53,439
Speaker 6: Yesterdays Monday, so I spent all of yesterday breaking down

874
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:57,440
Speaker 6: this Chief's offense. Where are these receivers going to line up?

875
00:42:57,480 --> 00:43:00,720
Speaker 6: Who are they going to line up against? Things that nature?

876
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:04,080
Speaker 1: But before you do that, before you explain that, I

877
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:06,880
Speaker 1: started to interrupt you. But like, I know what that

878
00:43:06,920 --> 00:43:10,360
Speaker 1: looks like for Simon, and I know what that looks

879
00:43:10,480 --> 00:43:14,440
Speaker 1: like for me. But you come at this from an

880
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:17,880
Speaker 1: entirely different perspective as a mathematician. So what does it

881
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:19,879
Speaker 1: mean when you say you were looking at this game

882
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:22,000
Speaker 1: trying to see where receivers are going to line up?

883
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:25,160
Speaker 3: Are you watching film? How are you thinking about the

884
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:25,839
Speaker 3: process here?

885
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:29,719
Speaker 6: Yeah, not film, a lot of numbers, right, So are

886
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:31,440
Speaker 6: you lining up in the slot? Are you lining up

887
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:35,280
Speaker 6: out wide, inline, backfield, those kinds of things. So where

888
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:38,720
Speaker 6: on the field are you positioning or are the receivers

889
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:41,440
Speaker 6: positioning themselves? But then I'm also looking at things like

890
00:43:41,520 --> 00:43:45,920
Speaker 6: pressure rates. So certain receivers get targeted more when the

891
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 6: quarterback is under pressure when Mahomes is under pressure, and

892
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:53,560
Speaker 6: certain receivers get targeted less when he's under pressure. Additionally,

893
00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 6: you look at coverages. So if the opposing defense is

894
00:43:56,719 --> 00:43:59,760
Speaker 6: playing a too high safety shell versus a single high safety,

895
00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:03,440
Speaker 6: certain receivers get targeted in different ways. So all those

896
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:06,719
Speaker 6: things kind of get factored together and you mold those

897
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:10,560
Speaker 6: into a projection, and you know, that's kind of what

898
00:44:10,600 --> 00:44:12,319
Speaker 6: I'm looking at. So I'm not really looking at the

899
00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 6: film aspect of things, just a lot of numericality stuff,

900
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:18,040
Speaker 6: right that I that I'm looking you know, putting my

901
00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:20,479
Speaker 6: math PhD to to good work here.

902
00:44:21,520 --> 00:44:22,960
Speaker 5: So you're going, that's a lot of what I was

903
00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:23,760
Speaker 5: doing yesterday.

904
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:26,759
Speaker 1: You're going to like the advanced analytics sites, whether it's

905
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:31,240
Speaker 1: NFL next Gen Stats or you know, pro football focused

906
00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:34,400
Speaker 1: places like that, that are giving you the percentages of

907
00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:35,560
Speaker 1: where players are lining up.

908
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:37,880
Speaker 3: You're flowing that into a model. You're running your model,

909
00:44:38,000 --> 00:44:38,839
Speaker 3: et cetera, et cetera.

910
00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:41,279
Speaker 5: Okay, exactly, Yeah, that's one hundred percent, right.

911
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:43,560
Speaker 6: And so when you do that, you know one of

912
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 6: the things I noticed, which of course everybody knows, these

913
00:44:46,520 --> 00:44:50,520
Speaker 6: Eagles cornerbacks are amazing, right, You got Quingyan, Mitchell, Darius Slay,

914
00:44:50,600 --> 00:44:55,359
Speaker 6: Cooper de Gene. These guys allow targets at such a

915
00:44:55,480 --> 00:45:00,799
Speaker 6: low rate because they produce such awesome coverage that what

916
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:03,239
Speaker 6: that does, even though the Eagles don't generate a ton

917
00:45:03,280 --> 00:45:05,319
Speaker 6: of pressure, they generate the fifth lowest pressure rate in

918
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:09,799
Speaker 6: the regular season, it still forces quarterbacks to scramble. We

919
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:12,280
Speaker 6: talk about the coverage sack, well, these are the coverage

920
00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 6: scrambles that the Eagles force.

921
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:16,359
Speaker 5: So they either get coverage sacks.

922
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:18,359
Speaker 6: Because even though they are the fifth lowest pressure rate,

923
00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:21,440
Speaker 6: they're about mid tier in terms of sack rate, so

924
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:25,200
Speaker 6: that means coverage sacks, but they also allow coverage scrambles.

925
00:45:25,239 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 6: And whether it's a coverage sack or coverage scramble, it

926
00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:31,359
Speaker 6: does two things. It takes away a pass attempt from

927
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:33,680
Speaker 6: the quarterback that would have been a pass attempt right

928
00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:37,360
Speaker 6: and it eats clock because if you're scrambling, the clock's

929
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:39,160
Speaker 6: gonna run, or if you get sacked, the clock is

930
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:42,319
Speaker 6: going to run. Both of those things help an under

931
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:44,359
Speaker 6: so chat. I don't know if you want to give

932
00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 6: me my favorite player prop, but I'm kind of hitting

933
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:50,320
Speaker 6: at it. It's Patrick Mahomes under thirty six and a

934
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:51,960
Speaker 6: half passing attempts.

935
00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 5: You can get it.

936
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:54,440
Speaker 6: Minus one nineteen I think is the best out there.

937
00:45:54,440 --> 00:45:58,320
Speaker 6: A lot of minus one twenties. I have Patrick Mahomes

938
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:01,120
Speaker 6: projected for between thirty four and a half thirty five

939
00:46:01,880 --> 00:46:04,480
Speaker 6: as my average number in the model. I went over

940
00:46:04,480 --> 00:46:06,799
Speaker 6: to Sean Kerner. I was like, are you shown val

941
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:08,480
Speaker 6: on this? Because I am, And He's like, yeah, I've

942
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:11,760
Speaker 6: got this closer to thirty five. So we're both showing

943
00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:13,959
Speaker 6: value on this under thirty six and a half pass

944
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:15,000
Speaker 6: attempts for Mahomes.

945
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:17,080
Speaker 5: A couple other reasons why I like it. The Eagles,

946
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:17,839
Speaker 5: we talked about it.

947
00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:20,720
Speaker 6: Number one in possession time of possession thirty two minutes

948
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:23,439
Speaker 6: per game right around there. Give her take a little bit.

949
00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:26,239
Speaker 6: If the Eagles are possessing the ball, Mahomes can't be

950
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:30,879
Speaker 6: throwing it and Mahomes is looking to run in the

951
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:33,760
Speaker 6: playoff house, right, They protect him in the regular season,

952
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:36,000
Speaker 6: and we've seen this even with certain play calls. There's

953
00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:38,560
Speaker 6: play calls that the Bills didn't even see on film

954
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:41,239
Speaker 6: all year that the Chiefs ran in that game versus

955
00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:43,680
Speaker 6: the Bills. The Chiefs really open things up in the

956
00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:46,440
Speaker 6: playoffs because they no longer need to protect Mahomes. The

957
00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:49,720
Speaker 6: goals to win the Super Bowl Mahomes seven and eleven

958
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:51,840
Speaker 6: rushing attempts in the two playoff games. Those are his

959
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:55,400
Speaker 6: two highest rushing attempt totals of the whole season, So

960
00:46:56,000 --> 00:46:58,600
Speaker 6: if he's running a few extra times, that's taking away

961
00:46:58,640 --> 00:47:02,040
Speaker 6: pass attempts. Holmes is average thirty five point one pass

962
00:47:02,040 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 6: attempts on the year, twenty five and a half in

963
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:09,400
Speaker 6: the playoffs, and the Eagles only allow thirty one point

964
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:11,760
Speaker 6: eight pass attempts per game. So a lot of things

965
00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:13,879
Speaker 6: pointing to the under thirty six and a half pass

966
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:14,840
Speaker 6: attempts for Mahomes.

967
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:16,200
Speaker 3: What do you think of that? Simon?

968
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:19,520
Speaker 2: Love it. I mean, remember I'll not convince me. Anytime

969
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:21,520
Speaker 2: I had to do prior props. Almost always went to

970
00:47:21,680 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 2: the quarterback completion because you can find a lot of

971
00:47:24,200 --> 00:47:26,240
Speaker 2: value on a lot of different quarterbacks. This year, obviously,

972
00:47:26,600 --> 00:47:29,800
Speaker 2: I was always hanmering Anthony richardson unders. It was really

973
00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:32,000
Speaker 2: profitable depend on their match. If you knew that the

974
00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:34,480
Speaker 2: Culture were going to win, it was basically easy money

975
00:47:34,520 --> 00:47:36,480
Speaker 2: just to set of bedding the spread. You just take

976
00:47:36,520 --> 00:47:38,319
Speaker 2: his under completions because they just would run the ball

977
00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:41,400
Speaker 2: anytime they did win. So I love the thinking you're with, Nick,

978
00:47:41,480 --> 00:47:43,760
Speaker 2: especially the fact that this is going to be bumped

979
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:46,360
Speaker 2: up because it's the books taking the season average of Mahomes.

980
00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:48,680
Speaker 2: Matter of factory what Nick just talked about in the playoffs,

981
00:47:48,719 --> 00:47:52,240
Speaker 2: Mahomes runs it much more like something that they can't quantify.

982
00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:54,400
Speaker 2: So to me, I love to play because we know

983
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:56,480
Speaker 2: both teams are going to lead the clock, which means

984
00:47:56,560 --> 00:47:58,920
Speaker 2: less possessions, which means less time throwing the ball. So

985
00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 2: love this opening one from Nick.

986
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:04,480
Speaker 1: Also, it correlates to what we would like to happen

987
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:08,799
Speaker 1: if Patrick Mahomes is throwing it less than chances are

988
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:14,160
Speaker 1: the Chiefs are doing. Yeah, okay, uh doctor Nick, what's

989
00:48:14,200 --> 00:48:14,759
Speaker 1: another one?

990
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:17,080
Speaker 2: Uh?

991
00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:19,400
Speaker 6: Well, that's the only prop I've got so far. I

992
00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:23,200
Speaker 6: did bet yesterday a Xavier Worthy as GP. I took

993
00:48:23,239 --> 00:48:25,440
Speaker 6: his under five and a half receptions and I parlayed

994
00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:29,239
Speaker 6: it with his touchdown. So a little anti correlation there.

995
00:48:29,280 --> 00:48:31,040
Speaker 6: I'm showing value on his under five and a half

996
00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:33,960
Speaker 6: and I'm showing value as anytime touchdown. So if I'm

997
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 6: showing value on both, why not parlay them and get

998
00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:40,160
Speaker 6: that extra boost and odds because of the negative correlation.

999
00:48:40,880 --> 00:48:43,919
Speaker 6: Uh So that's the only other bet I have made

1000
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:47,799
Speaker 6: so far for the Super Bowl. After this podcast, I'm

1001
00:48:47,800 --> 00:48:49,800
Speaker 6: gonna be diving into the Eagles side of the ball.

1002
00:48:50,239 --> 00:48:53,000
Speaker 6: Uh And you know, I'm sure we'll have some Eagles props.

1003
00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:55,640
Speaker 6: Got the prop a Palooza show tomorrow, like you said,

1004
00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:57,799
Speaker 6: So I got to get on those Eagles props as

1005
00:48:57,800 --> 00:48:59,400
Speaker 6: well and have something for that show.

1006
00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:01,840
Speaker 2: What do you think about this matchup for Travis Kelcey

1007
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 2: where we've seen the Eagles the one place you get attack.

1008
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:06,640
Speaker 2: I mean we talked last week. I think everyone action

1009
00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:08,640
Speaker 2: loved Earth's last week and he ended up having what

1010
00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:12,040
Speaker 2: one hundred yards shit done of catches. Week before that,

1011
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:14,240
Speaker 2: we saw Higbee have a good game against the Eagles.

1012
00:49:14,280 --> 00:49:16,239
Speaker 2: Even the backup number two tight end had a good

1013
00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:17,760
Speaker 2: game against he Go. I think he scored a touchdown

1014
00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:20,279
Speaker 2: against the Eagles. Are you using a ton of value

1015
00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:23,520
Speaker 2: right on Travis kelser Is that market just dead because

1016
00:49:23,560 --> 00:49:25,680
Speaker 2: of who he is and what the betting public does

1017
00:49:25,719 --> 00:49:27,680
Speaker 2: with with Travis kels Because I haven't bet it yet,

1018
00:49:27,760 --> 00:49:29,799
Speaker 2: I'm just wonder you're coming from your numbers, are saying

1019
00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:31,680
Speaker 2: this is a good spot or is this a spot

1020
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:33,280
Speaker 2: just to avoid Travis Kelceer props?

1021
00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:36,799
Speaker 6: This is this is interesting because it's Travis Kelcey, right,

1022
00:49:36,880 --> 00:49:39,320
Speaker 6: I mean, he's dating Taylor Swift, you'd think the public's

1023
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:42,200
Speaker 6: going to be hammering his over, so there wouldn't be

1024
00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:44,920
Speaker 6: value on us over. But last I checked, which admittedly

1025
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:47,719
Speaker 6: was yesterday, I was showing some value on Travis kelce

1026
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:52,319
Speaker 6: over on his receptions, which is mind boggling when you

1027
00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:54,720
Speaker 6: think about where the public usually is. So maybe I'll

1028
00:49:54,840 --> 00:49:57,280
Speaker 6: end up joining the public. I haven't bet it yet myself,

1029
00:49:57,320 --> 00:50:00,080
Speaker 6: because it's less than a five percent edge that I

1030
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:03,840
Speaker 6: have on it, but you're right. I mean, he lines

1031
00:50:03,960 --> 00:50:07,000
Speaker 6: up out wide very little in the playoffs. He's out

1032
00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:09,799
Speaker 6: lined up out wide seven percent on the right, six

1033
00:50:09,840 --> 00:50:12,480
Speaker 6: percent on the left, in the slot thirty three percent,

1034
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:15,520
Speaker 6: but more than half his snaps come either in line

1035
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:17,480
Speaker 6: or in other spots on the field that he's going

1036
00:50:17,560 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 6: to be avoiding those Eagles top three cornerbacks and so

1037
00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:24,520
Speaker 6: they'll end up targeting Travis Kelcey quite a bunch, and

1038
00:50:24,560 --> 00:50:26,920
Speaker 6: I think this is a very good spot for Travis Kelcey.

1039
00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:34,200
Speaker 1: Doctor Nick, I like that you mentioned Xavier Worthy. You

1040
00:50:34,239 --> 00:50:36,799
Speaker 1: know that was a big one for convincing me this

1041
00:50:36,840 --> 00:50:39,920
Speaker 1: week that the touchdown projections that you and Kerner have

1042
00:50:40,040 --> 00:50:43,279
Speaker 1: been doing all season have been crushing it. So I

1043
00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:46,040
Speaker 1: like the idea of that Xavier worthy under five and

1044
00:50:46,080 --> 00:50:49,080
Speaker 1: a half receptions plus in any time touchdown. He's getting

1045
00:50:49,080 --> 00:50:51,000
Speaker 1: more and more into the offense, obviously getting more and

1046
00:50:51,000 --> 00:50:55,640
Speaker 1: more target share. Got inches away two weeks ago, got

1047
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:56,720
Speaker 1: in there last week.

1048
00:50:57,320 --> 00:50:58,000
Speaker 3: Very good one.

1049
00:50:58,360 --> 00:51:03,080
Speaker 1: Look, if you're listening to the show, you know that

1050
00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:07,600
Speaker 1: the Luck rankings are a regular reference point for us.

1051
00:51:07,600 --> 00:51:10,800
Speaker 1: I'm glad we could have Doctor nickon to break it

1052
00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:13,360
Speaker 1: down a little bit more from a luck perspective.

1053
00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:15,840
Speaker 3: Thanks Doctor Nick, of course.

1054
00:51:15,960 --> 00:51:18,560
Speaker 6: Glad to join you guys, and ready for that twenty

1055
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:21,200
Speaker 6: twenty two rerunch. By the way, Simon, congrats to your

1056
00:51:21,239 --> 00:51:25,640
Speaker 6: eagles against my commanders. Did feel the pain a little bit,

1057
00:51:25,800 --> 00:51:29,239
Speaker 6: just like our producer for the Buffalo Bill's side of

1058
00:51:29,280 --> 00:51:30,000
Speaker 6: things as well.

1059
00:51:30,560 --> 00:51:32,080
Speaker 2: You'll always have the hard rock brother.

1060
00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:37,080
Speaker 3: That's right, that's funny.

1061
00:51:37,360 --> 00:51:40,000
Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet

1062
00:51:40,000 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.

1063
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:45,000
Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets

1064
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:48,480
Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo code Favorites,

1065
00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:50,600
Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars to

1066
00:51:50,600 --> 00:51:53,319
Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those

1067
00:51:53,360 --> 00:51:57,960
Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures.

1068
00:51:57,560 --> 00:51:57,919
Speaker 3: And more.

1069
00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:01,000
Speaker 1: Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. Bet three sixty five

1070
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:06,520
Speaker 1: must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

1071
00:52:06,560 --> 00:52:09,719
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

1072
00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:13,560
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

1073
00:52:13,719 --> 00:52:16,080
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions

1074
00:52:16,080 --> 00:52:19,080
Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Simon and I We'll return with our next

1075
00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:23,640
Speaker 1: episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page

1076
00:52:23,640 --> 00:52:28,799
Speaker 1: eleven am Eastern Thursday to talk about the trends with

1077
00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:30,120
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams.

1078
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Speaker 3: Download us from.

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Speaker 1: Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your POD's rate, review,

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Speaker 1: subscribe WES five stars, say whatever you want.

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Speaker 3: Feedback is the gift. Until next time, Love you. Action

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Speaker 3: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone

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Speaker 3: you care about has a gambling problem, help is available

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Speaker 3: twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler