Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look a hand
Speaker 1: of the top stories in the coming week from our
Speaker 1: day Break anchors all around the world. Hand just ahead
Speaker 1: on the program. It's the mother of all economic reports,
Speaker 1: the unemployment report coming out on John Tucker in New York.
Speaker 1: I'm Ryan Turtis in Hong Kong. Two interesting chapters of
Speaker 1: China's upcoming Communist Party Congress. I'm Caroline him in London
Speaker 1: for the World Aviation Festival in Amsterdam. The CEO is
Speaker 1: what we're speaking to Bloomberg. I'm Any Morris in Washington.
Speaker 1: This midterm election is unusually hard to hold. That's all
Speaker 1: straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg eleven three,
Speaker 1: on New York, Bloomberg one, Washington d C, Bloomberg one
Speaker 1: oh six one Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, San Francisco, d
Speaker 1: A B Digital Radio, London, Sirius XM one nine and
Speaker 1: around the world on Bloomberg Radio dot com and via
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business App. Hi, everybody, I'm John Tucker, and
Speaker 1: let's try today's program with a look ahead to the
Speaker 1: coming jobs report. Joining me for more, Bloomberg reporter Matt
Speaker 1: Bosler Matt in the introduction, I called it the mother
Speaker 1: of all economic reports? Is it still or we are
Speaker 1: firmly focused on inflation reports instead of the job's report
Speaker 1: these days? Well, it's definitely competing a lot more with
Speaker 1: inflation these days, but I would say it probably still
Speaker 1: is the mother of all economic reports. It's pretty critical
Speaker 1: over the next several months and into the next year
Speaker 1: for determining the trajectory for the Federal Reserve and therefore
Speaker 1: for financial markets more broadly. Yeah, And a big component
Speaker 1: of that is if the job's market is strong, the
Speaker 1: wages companies are paying their workers more, and that feeds
Speaker 1: into the whole inflation picture. Right. That's the thing. We
Speaker 1: have very high inflation right now. It's it's north of
Speaker 1: eight percent, it's the highest in four decades. But a
Speaker 1: lot of that is presumed to be due to supply
Speaker 1: chain problems, supply side factors that are expected to dissipate
Speaker 1: and resolve over the next several months and into next year.
Speaker 1: So the big question is, once all of that stuff
Speaker 1: goes away, what is sort of the underlying rate of inflation?
Speaker 1: Setting all of that aside, economists and forecasters, policymakers at
Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve, for example, tend to think that wage
Speaker 1: growth is really the underlying factor, uh that determines where
Speaker 1: inflation is headed. And so wage growth is still very
Speaker 1: high right now at around six and so set officials
Speaker 1: are really looking for, you know, that to moderate in
Speaker 1: order to feel more confident that inflation is going to
Speaker 1: come all the way back down to two once those
Speaker 1: supply side facts take care of themselves. Okay, So, how
Speaker 1: strong is the labor market in the US and are
Speaker 1: there going to be signs of some cracks in the
Speaker 1: labor market going forward, especially with this coming report. You know,
Speaker 1: the labor market is just looking incredibly strong right now,
Speaker 1: and it's a bit of a puzzle for economists who
Speaker 1: would have expected to see more softening there as the
Speaker 1: Fed has raised rates over the last six months. You know,
Speaker 1: we just got the latest reading on initial jobless claims
Speaker 1: on Thursday. For last week it fell, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: weekly initial claims fell below two hundred thousand again for
Speaker 1: the first time in several months. Are now near the
Speaker 1: lowest levels of this expansion. Yeah, that was you know,
Speaker 1: that's that's one of these good news bad news scenarios.
Speaker 1: You get a really good labor market report and then
Speaker 1: stocks you know, sort of go off a cliff. So
Speaker 1: it's that's what we're contending with. Explain that to everybody
Speaker 1: why that happens, Well, I mean, that really speaks to
Speaker 1: where we're at right now with Federal Reserve policy. You know,
Speaker 1: the Fed is looking for the economy to soften. It's
Speaker 1: not softening, which means they're probably going to be inclined
Speaker 1: to raise interest rates even higher than they're already saying,
Speaker 1: which is you know, quite high already. So the question
Speaker 1: is does the Federal Reserve it has a dual mandate,
Speaker 1: by the way, as everybody knows, uh, price control, price pressures,
Speaker 1: easing price pressures, lowering the rate of inflation, and full employment.
Speaker 1: So do they have with that dual mandate, do they
Speaker 1: have to torpedo the labor market to bring prices down?
Speaker 1: This is a really interesting thing because you know, they're
Speaker 1: projecting a higher unemployment right next year. They see it
Speaker 1: rising a four point four at the end of next
Speaker 1: year from the current levels around three point seven percent,
Speaker 1: and they think that's necessary to bring inflation down. They
Speaker 1: need to see some softening in the labor market to
Speaker 1: moderate that wage growth, and then to bring inflation down, So,
Speaker 1: you know, you kind of scratch your head, is that
Speaker 1: really consistent with their full employment mandate. What they say
Speaker 1: is that price stability is a precursor to full employment,
Speaker 1: and so that's kind of how they swear that circle
Speaker 1: that you know, we need to get inflation down because
Speaker 1: that will set the stage for a healthy labor market
Speaker 1: over the longer run. Now that's a contexted notion, but
Speaker 1: that's what they're saying at the moment. So what's the
Speaker 1: prediction right now from economist ahead of the release of
Speaker 1: the report. So economists expect the unemployment rate to stay
Speaker 1: unchanged at three point seven in September from last month.
Speaker 1: The other big number to watch is labor force participation.
Speaker 1: That was sixty two point four percent last month, but
Speaker 1: it picked up quite a bit from the month before,
Speaker 1: and that's something that we've really been waiting to see
Speaker 1: and hadn't really seen until just last month. If that continues,
Speaker 1: that's going to be really important because that's one way
Speaker 1: that um, you know, some of that labor supply could
Speaker 1: return and take some pressure off of wages and prices
Speaker 1: without necessarily having to see um, you know, weaker labor demand. Uh,
Speaker 1: so that's a big one to watch for sure. Okay,
Speaker 1: the Federalserve officials have been tightening, and we have to
Speaker 1: remind everybody that their policy acts with a lag. So
Speaker 1: is it possible we've already passed the point of where
Speaker 1: the policy starts to take effect. And maybe there's an
Speaker 1: indication that the Federal Reserve officials have gone too far
Speaker 1: given how long they've been raising rates. Now, they started
Speaker 1: in March, but they were obviously signaling rate hikes even
Speaker 1: before then, which worked its way into longer term interest rates.
Speaker 1: We haven't really seen that showing up in the economic
Speaker 1: data yet. Economists would expect it to start showing up
Speaker 1: around now. And so the big question going forward is
Speaker 1: do we start to see that having a fact or
Speaker 1: is it possible that the economy is just, for whatever
Speaker 1: reason less sensitive to interest rates then it used to be.
Speaker 1: One big thing that did happen during the pandemic is
Speaker 1: all of the money that the government pumped into the
Speaker 1: economy allowed a lot of people to pay down debt.
Speaker 1: And so maybe, uh, you know, consumers and businesses are
Speaker 1: just not as interest sensitive as they used to be.
Speaker 1: In that case, the Fed may have to raise rates
Speaker 1: higher in order to gain traction and and really starts
Speaker 1: closing down. Matt. Always a pleasure. Thanks for explaining things
Speaker 1: to Bloomberg reporter Matt Bosler. And just to hit on
Speaker 1: bloom Break Daybreak Weekend, some big weeks coming for China's
Speaker 1: economy and the political scene. There, I'm John Tucker and
Speaker 1: busm This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, a global look ahead
Speaker 1: of the top stories from investors in the coming week.
Speaker 1: I'm John Tucker in New York. Up later in the
Speaker 1: program here comes the World Aviation Festival in Amsterdam. But
Speaker 1: first China's economy and political leadership and focus this coming
Speaker 1: week and for more, let's head to Hong Kong and
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak Asia host Brian Curtis John. Over the next
Speaker 1: couple of weeks, we'll be taking a close look at
Speaker 1: the Communist Party Congress in China coming up later this month.
Speaker 1: In this segment, we'll focus on two specific areas. One
Speaker 1: a possible overhaul of the Chinese economy and secondly, future leaders,
Speaker 1: including who might eventually succeed Shijin Ping as Secretary General.
Speaker 1: We have Premier Lika Chong as well as the economics
Speaker 1: are Leo Hu PBOC Governor Ye Young and others likely
Speaker 1: to step down early next year. Now that's based on
Speaker 1: retirement age and term limits for senior officials. New leadership
Speaker 1: might lead to new direction, though President She himself is
Speaker 1: expected to secure a third term as party chief. Joining
Speaker 1: us for discussion is Marvin Chen, China and North Asia
Speaker 1: equity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Crystal chap who's China
Speaker 1: assignment reporter on finance at Bloomberg News. So Marvin, let's
Speaker 1: go to you first. Plenty of big issues to be
Speaker 1: discussed at the Congress. Confidence is low among both households
Speaker 1: and businesses, and of course there's a certain degree of
Speaker 1: external attention with with the West. We spoke earlier with
Speaker 1: Leland Miller, CEO at China Beije Book, and he told
Speaker 1: us China is actually facing increasing risks from deflation. We're
Speaker 1: not in deflation yet, but you know, we're heading into
Speaker 1: the winter. And a lot of people say, oh, this
Speaker 1: will bring economic stimulus after the Party Congress, it will
Speaker 1: bring an end to COVID zero lockdowns. I don't think
Speaker 1: that's the case. And moreover, if you have more COVID
Speaker 1: and more COVID zero lockdowns, You're really going to have
Speaker 1: a problem with the threat of deflation looming. So again
Speaker 1: Leland Miller there China base book. So Marvin, what might
Speaker 1: we expect on COVID policy out of the Congress? Yeah,
Speaker 1: thank you, Brian. Well, first I just want to emphasize
Speaker 1: that the Party Congress is largely a political event, so
Speaker 1: we shouldn't expect any immediately policy changes coming from the Congress,
Speaker 1: but we can get signals on the policy direction in
Speaker 1: the coming months once the leadership transition is in place.
Speaker 1: For COVID um, you know, cases have been coming down
Speaker 1: in recent weeks and the last major city, chanin Do
Speaker 1: that was under lockdown is now reopening. So the Congress
Speaker 1: could be an opportune time for the Party to declare
Speaker 1: small victory and the effectiveness of the current COVID policies.
Speaker 1: But we think the changes will be gradual, perhaps another
Speaker 1: reduction in the in bound quarantine requirements, and the gradual
Speaker 1: reduction may be similar to what we saw in Hong Kong,
Speaker 1: but the semi lockdowns when cases rise may still be
Speaker 1: looming and lasting into two thousand three. Is there a
Speaker 1: sense that Hong Kong might be an experiment that they're
Speaker 1: watching to see how it might be applied to China. Yeah, definitely.
Speaker 1: You know, Hong Kong will be closely watched how the
Speaker 1: reopening of Hong Kong affects cases. But you know, we
Speaker 1: we think that the Hong Kong reopening is uh more
Speaker 1: significant because they want to keep Hong Kong as a
Speaker 1: international finance hub. As you mentioned, the party Congress will
Speaker 1: deal with leadership issues. So I'm just curious. So who
Speaker 1: might be tapped to become the next premier? Um, well,
Speaker 1: I mean we we do know that the Ka Chang
Speaker 1: is going to retire, but you know there's a speculation
Speaker 1: on a few names. Um, you know, I don't want
Speaker 1: to uh go, and I mean it's hard to speculating guests,
Speaker 1: but it's Leo Hu's name. Per ups in that circle.
Speaker 1: We think Leo ja is reaching the retirement age and
Speaker 1: he may be may be stepping down, and so no
Speaker 1: exception made on that. Okay, let's talk a little bit
Speaker 1: about housing. I know that it's not so much economic policy,
Speaker 1: but this is a this is a story that runs
Speaker 1: right through society in China. Are we expected to see
Speaker 1: some measures at least in the next month or two
Speaker 1: to shore up housing. Yeah, there's not going to be
Speaker 1: a quick fix to China's property issues at the moment,
Speaker 1: and it'll take some time to restore the market sentiment.
Speaker 1: Many of these measures will be uh will vary from
Speaker 1: city to city and left up to local government discrestion. Okay,
Speaker 1: for part two in our discussion, we wanted to talk
Speaker 1: a little bit about future leadership. You're we mentioned that
Speaker 1: we know that elites will take up the key leadership positions,
Speaker 1: but there's another group that will also advance, and these
Speaker 1: are being called the luckiest generation. They were born back
Speaker 1: in the nineteen seventies. They missed both the chaotic era
Speaker 1: of Mount ze Dong, particularly towards the end. They got
Speaker 1: their education and grounding before the troubles of this most
Speaker 1: recent period. They had a brief window of Internet freedom
Speaker 1: wto membership and all that that meant, as well as
Speaker 1: global mobility, and those freedoms have now been somewhat restricted
Speaker 1: by censorship, trade actions and COVID border closure. Let's bring
Speaker 1: in Crystal for a little bit of insight on this
Speaker 1: wonderful story. So give us one name, Crystal, that you
Speaker 1: think kind of stands out as the future high flyer.
Speaker 1: So I think arguably the most high profile leader in
Speaker 1: this cohort of politicians born in the nineteen seventies. Um
Speaker 1: It's step the deputy party secretary in Shanghaim. His name
Speaker 1: is to So he's been known as a right hand
Speaker 1: man to the current Shanghai Party chief Letia, who is
Speaker 1: a longtime associate of presidency and the financial hub of
Speaker 1: Shanghai is traditionally a springboard to higher office. Seizing pay
Speaker 1: himself as a former Shaghai party secretary. Many probably the
Speaker 1: observers have noticed Jugo is one of the most promising
Speaker 1: younger politicians to sporn in the nineteen seventies. And broadly speaking,
Speaker 1: why is this generation important? So it's likely that Seizing
Speaker 1: things success so will emerge from this generation. They will
Speaker 1: rise to power just as he gets very very old.
Speaker 1: So current age limits and norms meant that those born
Speaker 1: in the nineteen sixties will have to retire over the
Speaker 1: next decade. So that would clear a path for those
Speaker 1: born in the nineteen seventies to join the Politburo. So
Speaker 1: the idea and the logic is that they will first
Speaker 1: join UM the Central Committee this month as alternate members
Speaker 1: become full members in the next Congress and then right
Speaker 1: to the Politburo in the Congress. I'm also curious about
Speaker 1: whether or not these leaders will be more globalist in nature.
Speaker 1: I mean, might they be looking externally as much as
Speaker 1: internally for the development of China. One thing that stands
Speaker 1: out from the shared experience of this cohort of positition
Speaker 1: s born in the nineteen seventies is that they have
Speaker 1: witnessed and in fact experienced the benefits of China's startling
Speaker 1: economic rights. So that gives rise to two arguments. One
Speaker 1: is that because that they have enjoyed the benefits and
Speaker 1: they have had possibly a more international education, so they
Speaker 1: will open up China at just potentially the right time.
Speaker 1: On the other hand, we could also argue that because
Speaker 1: you have only experienced the so called good times, it
Speaker 1: is much easier for them to internalize the idea that
Speaker 1: the party enrich our society, and that would um help
Speaker 1: them to enforce the seaters co. Yeah, so a lot
Speaker 1: needs to unfold over the next many years. Crystal, thanks
Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Chrystal China assignment reporter on
Speaker 1: finance at Bloomberg News, and Marvin Chen thank you as well.
Speaker 1: China and North Asia, equity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. I'm
Speaker 1: Brian Curtis along with Doug Chrisner. You can catch us
Speaker 1: every weekday here for Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, beginning at six
Speaker 1: am in Hong Kong and six pm on Wall Street.
Speaker 1: John Brian, thanks a lot. Just ahead on Bloomberg day
Speaker 1: Break Weekend, the High Flying World Aviation Festival in Amsterdam.
Speaker 1: I'm John Tucker On. This is Bloomberg broadcasting live from
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York. Bloomberg evon
Speaker 1: Freo to Washington, d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one
Speaker 1: oh six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg NIXT to the
Speaker 1: country Sirius XM Channel one nine to London d A
Speaker 1: B Digital Radio, and around the globe the Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: app and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend.
Speaker 1: I'm John Tuckery New York with your love log stories
Speaker 1: for investors in the coming week. The World that Idiot
Speaker 1: and festival happens next week in Amsterdam. For more Land,
Speaker 1: Said to London, bringing Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor Caroline Hepger,
Speaker 1: John sawing dollar denominated fuel costs, a chaotic post COVID
Speaker 1: summer travel season, and sustainable aviation. The airline industry certainly
Speaker 1: has some challenges. Jo, what I mean now is Bloomberg
Speaker 1: anchor Guy Johnson, who is off to Amsterdam. Then in
Speaker 1: the coming few days, Well, we hope you're going to
Speaker 1: be off term. What is the biggest issue then in
Speaker 1: your view for the industry? Is it production? Is it
Speaker 1: the passenger fuel costs? What do you think? It's all
Speaker 1: of the current It's all of the above. This is
Speaker 1: an industry that shut down during the pandemic, which was unprecedented.
Speaker 1: It has then had to completely readjust to a summer
Speaker 1: that has been much stronger than anticipated. The capacity has
Speaker 1: not been there. We've all read the stories about the
Speaker 1: chaos that has ensued as a result of that. It
Speaker 1: has been a European problem, it's been a problem over
Speaker 1: in the United States, it's been a problem down in Australia.
Speaker 1: All of the airlines have been suffering from the same issue.
Speaker 1: But then, but the challenge now comes in. As much
Speaker 1: as they've they've ramped up capacity once again to meet
Speaker 1: this demand. But when now we're going into a cost
Speaker 1: of living crisis. A lot of people book their summer
Speaker 1: leisure trips as they came out of the pandemic. Let
Speaker 1: me go anywhere. I don't care where, I just want
Speaker 1: to go on holiday. But now energy prices are rising,
Speaker 1: mortgage costs are rising. Are people going to continue to book?
Speaker 1: And if they're not going to book, will business travel
Speaker 1: make up the game? Yeah? I mean I was really
Speaker 1: just the other day. I don't know whether you've seen
Speaker 1: this the October half term here in the UK where
Speaker 1: people might go and grab some summer son. Apparently airline
Speaker 1: ticket prices have gone up something like for travel to
Speaker 1: places like tenor Reef and elsewhere. Look, you cover all
Speaker 1: the kind of global aviation industry Shindix, what do you
Speaker 1: think the atmosphere is actually going to be like? Then
Speaker 1: sort of paints a picture and really importantly, who are
Speaker 1: you going to be speaking to for blue bo TV
Speaker 1: and radio? I think it's going to be called So
Speaker 1: if you're an airline boss, you are, from a d
Speaker 1: N A point of view, an optimistic person you have
Speaker 1: to be. If you want to run an airline, you
Speaker 1: have got to be an optimistic person. But I would
Speaker 1: say even the most optimistic airline CEO at the moment,
Speaker 1: it's probably feeling fairly cautious. Um, there's a lot going on.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of non unknowns that they have to
Speaker 1: deal with, so so I think there will be certainly
Speaker 1: a note of caution. We're going to be speaking to
Speaker 1: a whole range of carriers from around the world, and
Speaker 1: that's what's great about these things. Airline CEOs are actually
Speaker 1: prepared to get on an airplane and come to these
Speaker 1: kinds of events. So we've got Willie Walsh is going
Speaker 1: to be there. He'll give us the sort of top
Speaker 1: down picture from my art. That's the industry body. We're
Speaker 1: being hosted by the new KLM ceo. UM. There are
Speaker 1: many female CEOs in this industry, so it's great that
Speaker 1: she is. She is kind of hosting this event effectively
Speaker 1: for us. She's just been in the job for a
Speaker 1: hundred days. It's gonna be really interesting to get her
Speaker 1: take Marion Riddler of what is happening with the airline.
Speaker 1: Then we've got some of the big kind of global carriers.
Speaker 1: So Tim Clark is going to be there from Emirates,
Speaker 1: be injurged to get his take. He has a pretty
Speaker 1: global picture of what is going on quantas is CEO
Speaker 1: Alan Joyce is going to be there, so you're getting
Speaker 1: you're getting the kind of the whole range um and
Speaker 1: I think actually I'm quite curious to hear from from
Speaker 1: some of the long haul carriers because you mentioned tenn
Speaker 1: a Reef. I think that's quite interesting. People are shortening
Speaker 1: the length they're going to be prepared to fly for
Speaker 1: winter sun and it's going to be interesting. You mentioned
Speaker 1: tenner Reef. Tenner Reef has quite a good winter sun.
Speaker 1: But normally people will be going to Australia, they'd be
Speaker 1: going to the Caribbean, they'd be going to quite far
Speaker 1: flung places to reach that wind sun. My understanding is
Speaker 1: that they're going to be flying shorter distances to get
Speaker 1: that little that little rare. There you go. You can
Speaker 1: you can tell that I was looking it up on
Speaker 1: me on the internet, can't you. Well. The October rises
Speaker 1: are looking like look interesting that you mentioned i Ata
Speaker 1: and great stuff. Really excited to hear about all the
Speaker 1: CEOs that you're going to be able to listen to
Speaker 1: on on radio and of course watch on tv UM.
Speaker 1: Iata says that they are optimistic that governments will sign
Speaker 1: up to the target of net zero emissions for the
Speaker 1: sector by twenty fifty. There's a critical meeting coming up
Speaker 1: in Canada de Carbonization, the road to de carbonization for
Speaker 1: these airline industries. It's really challenging, it is. It is
Speaker 1: a huge challenge. It is interesting. Easy Jet has just
Speaker 1: moved away from its offset scheme which didn't work, so
Speaker 1: they're trying all kinds of different things trying to make
Speaker 1: this work. The biggest, the biggest thing that that the
Speaker 1: industry needs from governments is a policy pledge to make
Speaker 1: sustainable aviation fuel in quantities, So that needs that needs
Speaker 1: a tax reset to be able to allow that to happen.
Speaker 1: Joe Biden, just over in the United States has started
Speaker 1: down this down this road. It's going to be intrigued
Speaker 1: to hear from Quantus. They're very keen for the Australian
Speaker 1: government to to actually step in and deliver significant policy
Speaker 1: around this kind of area that will allow the sustainable
Speaker 1: aviation industry to grow. Guy, thanks so much for being
Speaker 1: with us, Wishing you all the best of luck. Will
Speaker 1: be tuning in of course to get all of those
Speaker 1: CEO interviews from the World Aviation Festival that takes place
Speaker 1: in the coming days in Amsterdam. Thanks so much to
Speaker 1: Guy Johnson. I'm Caroline Hedge in London. You can catch
Speaker 1: us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak, beginning at six
Speaker 1: am in London. That's what I am on More Street, John, Caroline,
Speaker 1: thanks a lot. Just ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, watch
Speaker 1: for more mud slinging as the mid term elections near.
Speaker 1: I'm John Tucker, and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Daybreak Weekend Global, looking ahead of the top stories for
Speaker 1: investors in the coming week. I'm John Tucker in New York.
Speaker 1: The mid term election season shifting in the high gear
Speaker 1: this coming week, with the November eighth elections getting closer evermore.
Speaker 1: Let's head to our Bloomberg ninety one newsroom in Washington
Speaker 1: and Amy Morris, Thank you, John. President Biden has been
Speaker 1: ramping up the rhetoric as the mid terms near, and
Speaker 1: he steps up the campaign appearances and other public speeches.
Speaker 1: You can't claim to be a party of law in
Speaker 1: or and call the people to attack the police in
Speaker 1: January six patriots. Now, as President Biden and other Democrats
Speaker 1: continue to try to use issues surrounding January six to
Speaker 1: their advantage. Republicans are trying to use a lot of
Speaker 1: hot button issues as well to their advantage. One of
Speaker 1: the issues they may try to turn to their political
Speaker 1: advantage the January six riots, including some people who are
Speaker 1: actually there. We talk about this now, Bloomberg political reporter
Speaker 1: Ryan tigue beckwith Ryan. It is a pleasure as always,
Speaker 1: Thanks so much for joining us. All right. So, former
Speaker 1: President Trump has not yet announced his bid for the
Speaker 1: White House, but he has been pushing back at President
Speaker 1: Biden's claims of success. Uh. Here is the former president
Speaker 1: now at a rally in Ohio just recently. It's been
Speaker 1: one of the worst years for stops in history. How
Speaker 1: are you, for a one case doing not too good?
Speaker 1: All right? So, Ryan, how powerful an argument is this
Speaker 1: for Republicans? Is this something that can maybe move the
Speaker 1: needle or sway independence? You know, I've never really understood
Speaker 1: Trump's focus on for one case, because a lot of
Speaker 1: the people who really vote based on the economy don't
Speaker 1: have forewarn case. I think the broader point here is
Speaker 1: our employment doing doing and so I think that the
Speaker 1: broader argument there about the economy is is still probably
Speaker 1: in the Republicans. Uh, you know, on their ledger on
Speaker 1: the positive side, giving them a boost. Um, I think
Speaker 1: that there's a question, a real open question of how
Speaker 1: much other issues like abortion may counter the countervailing forces
Speaker 1: there for Democrats this time around. But I still feel
Speaker 1: like the economy is just is too uncertain and for
Speaker 1: it to be a boost to Biden at this point.
Speaker 1: So we're coming up now on a busy week at
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court, shifting gears just a bit. The political
Speaker 1: world still reverberating from the rollback of abortion rights. If
Speaker 1: the economy isn't necessarily going to move the needle for everyone,
Speaker 1: how is the abortion you're going to play out for
Speaker 1: the GOP specifically? Yeah, I mean I think that there
Speaker 1: was a long for a long time, there was an
Speaker 1: advantage here for the Republicans in that the status quo
Speaker 1: was sort of assumed by supporters of abortion rights to be,
Speaker 1: you know, not changing, and if you're a Republican, you
Speaker 1: could go out there and campaign on how you're going
Speaker 1: to abortion or you're going to you know, things like
Speaker 1: partial birth abortion or a parent notifications or things like that,
Speaker 1: where they could kind of find the wedge issues that
Speaker 1: would sway a number of people. Since the Dobb's decision.
Speaker 1: We really seem like a reversal in the pool. But
Speaker 1: there's a lot more people who are concerned about this
Speaker 1: who are abortion right supporters than opponents. And there's a
Speaker 1: lot of people who say in the past, what it
Speaker 1: said that they were pro life, and now we're saying
Speaker 1: but you know, I would sort of like the standard
Speaker 1: that there was during reversus a way to be with
Speaker 1: the law. I do think that that is a factor.
Speaker 1: I don't know how much of a factor. I mean,
Speaker 1: it could be a thing where it cuts into the
Speaker 1: Republican margin, but not enough to prevent Republicans from prevailing
Speaker 1: in the House and picking up some sentences. So it
Speaker 1: could be a factor but not enough of a factor.
Speaker 1: Or it could completely change the electorate. I mean, we
Speaker 1: have seen some evidence that voter registriations about young women
Speaker 1: especially are unusually high. It's a real hard one to pull.
Speaker 1: It's a real hard nitt term to pull. I don't
Speaker 1: think we've seen one like this. The other flip side
Speaker 1: of that coin is that maybe people who supported Republicans
Speaker 1: are who supported Donald Trump before aren't as motivated to
Speaker 1: go to the polls because abortion perhaps was their wedge issue,
Speaker 1: and now it has been resolved, the Supreme Court has
Speaker 1: had that handed down that decision, right, it does drain
Speaker 1: a little bit of the energy there. And I think
Speaker 1: that you saw like Trump was very effectively able to
Speaker 1: get people back into his corner who were maybe skeptical
Speaker 1: of him. But we're republic against them, We're um anti
Speaker 1: abortion rights, those folks. We're swayed kind of at the
Speaker 1: last minute by his argument that like you got to
Speaker 1: come home, you know, I can quit juststicism the Supreme Court,
Speaker 1: And that was basically to feel that he made with them,
Speaker 1: I can go to the justices and not in like
Speaker 1: a five four situation, but like feeling a pretty confident
Speaker 1: six three conservative majority in the screen courts, Like I
Speaker 1: think that really becomes much less of an effective argument
Speaker 1: if there are other things that are sort of depressing
Speaker 1: them or keeping them from wanting to turn out. You
Speaker 1: would mentioned Ryan that this particular mid term is hard
Speaker 1: to pull. Why is that? What is the perfect storm
Speaker 1: that we're witnessing that makes this one so unusual? You know,
Speaker 1: there is just a there. You could do a whole
Speaker 1: hour on what's up with pulling lately? And the real
Speaker 1: problem with pulling is not so much figuring out what
Speaker 1: people think, because we can easily pull and tell you
Speaker 1: what what people think. Um. The problem is whether those
Speaker 1: are the people who are going to show up to vote,
Speaker 1: and it's Pulsters have different ways of doing this. Sometimes
Speaker 1: they will just pull people that they know voted in
Speaker 1: previous elections. Sometimes they will ask people they do vote.
Speaker 1: Of course, you know, everyone says yeah, I voted, because
Speaker 1: no one wants to say that they're like a bad
Speaker 1: citizens um. Or you know, they may say you intended
Speaker 1: to vote. You know, if the election were helped today,
Speaker 1: how would you vote? And the composes are all very inexact,
Speaker 1: and there's also some noise in the data. It appears
Speaker 1: that maybe some Trump supporters have just run so skeptical
Speaker 1: of institutions in general that they don't respond to poll
Speaker 1: or that they don't tell polsters that they're going to vote,
Speaker 1: or maybe just that they're off the grid enough that
Speaker 1: it's hard to get ahold of them and so they're
Speaker 1: not being captured by that. So we do see that
Speaker 1: there's some potential here that the pools are understating Republicans
Speaker 1: in sowing Democrats ahead, and some of the Senate races,
Speaker 1: and we may wake up the day after the election
Speaker 1: and find that Republicans actually did quite well in those
Speaker 1: races that they were cast of movies, like in Georgia
Speaker 1: and Pennsylvania, or you know, it may not be the
Speaker 1: case when we may find that there's another group of
Speaker 1: people that we've missed, like him, women that were you know,
Speaker 1: under stampling. So I really take polls with much more
Speaker 1: solt than your doctor would recommend. Right now, Well, we
Speaker 1: are talking with Bloomberg political reporter Ryan tigue beckwith about
Speaker 1: the unusual nature of this mid term election. Ryan, lets
Speaker 1: shift gears a bit to Pennsylvania. Democratic sending candidate John
Speaker 1: Fetterman was at a rally this past week, and he
Speaker 1: promised to quantify Roe v. Wade if the state sends
Speaker 1: him to Washington. My name is John feder Woman. His
Speaker 1: Republican opponent, mem and Oz has agreed to release his
Speaker 1: medical records. He also continues to pressure Federman to release
Speaker 1: his following that stroke that Federman had back in May.
Speaker 1: I don't know if he's medically fit. Holdough, I'm a
Speaker 1: doctor and I probably should have an opinion on it.
Speaker 1: But the fact is that nobody knows because none of
Speaker 1: us have had access to his medical records, and Frantny
Speaker 1: that's his decision what records he wants to provide. Okay,
Speaker 1: So Ryan, where do we stand on this race and
Speaker 1: what are you looking for as far as the two
Speaker 1: of them in the coming weeks? Okay? Now, I am
Speaker 1: one of those people who will tell you that debate
Speaker 1: do not matter. M Everyone always gets all excited about
Speaker 1: debates and makes a big deal about debate um and
Speaker 1: generally speaking, like most debates doesn't really have an effect.
Speaker 1: There's a handful of cases that you could point to
Speaker 1: where they did. This is one of those. I think
Speaker 1: if if Sedderman and are needing a debate, and Sederman
Speaker 1: is able to put on a pretty normal performance for
Speaker 1: a politician, then I think that that will put to
Speaker 1: bed the questions about, you know, his stroke and whether
Speaker 1: he needs a further job. If if he has a
Speaker 1: halting performance or has a moment on stage, or he
Speaker 1: appears lost or isn't able to parry effectively an attack,
Speaker 1: and I think there's medical concerns would really be forefronted
Speaker 1: by that. So there's a lot of states in the
Speaker 1: two of them leading at a debate and out of
Speaker 1: a very smart guy and a very quick guy, and
Speaker 1: I think this would also be an opportunity for him.
Speaker 1: He's been really flatsported on on social media and some
Speaker 1: of his remarks and interviews and things like that. If
Speaker 1: he can manage to get through a debate without saying
Speaker 1: something about crude detas or or no some of the
Speaker 1: things that he said that where he's started trying to
Speaker 1: attack betterman and ends up making him sound cool, Uh,
Speaker 1: then I think that would also could actually move the
Speaker 1: needle a little bit. It's a very close race, much
Speaker 1: closer than I think Democrats were hoping it would be
Speaker 1: at this point, speaking of moving the needle, will immigration issues,
Speaker 1: border issues move the needle? It seems to be getting
Speaker 1: more intense by the day. Where's the traction when it
Speaker 1: comes to immigration. I don't it necessarily enough of a
Speaker 1: crisis to become like an issue for swing voters or
Speaker 1: depress Democrats on the issue or something like that. And
Speaker 1: there's some reason to believe that that the aspensive focused
Speaker 1: on immigration in vers when it really wasn't an issue.
Speaker 1: Is why Donald Trump did better in among Hispanics than
Speaker 1: he did in It may be that there's a cost
Speaker 1: to talking about immigration, because the way that Republicans talk
Speaker 1: about it tends to turn off some people. The other
Speaker 1: reason why this is a weird mid term is that
Speaker 1: it does feel like there's like two separate elections going
Speaker 1: on where Republicans are kind of over in this corner
Speaker 1: talking about immigration and inflation, crime, and Democrats over in
Speaker 1: this corner talking about abortion rights and you know, Biden's
Speaker 1: record and prescription drug prices and whatnot, and and they're
Speaker 1: the public seems to be kind of in their two
Speaker 1: universes too, like there's this isn't really a thing where
Speaker 1: there's an issue and you know, here's what I do
Speaker 1: about it. It's like each has kind of its own
Speaker 1: set of issues. And I think that's the other thing
Speaker 1: is that it's hard to know which motivating enough to
Speaker 1: get the turnout. Okay, we're gonna keep watching it with you, Ryan,
Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Bloomberg political correspondent Ryan tigue beckwith
Speaker 1: and that's what's going on in the nation's capital. For
Speaker 1: more of our political news coverage, tune into Balance of
Speaker 1: Power with David Weston weekdays at noon Wall Street Time,
Speaker 1: and Sound On with Joe Matthew weekday afternoons at five
Speaker 1: right here on Bloomberg Radio. I'm Amy Morris and this
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg John. Amy Morris reporting from our Bloomberg ninety
Speaker 1: one newsroom in Washington. Thanks Tommy, and that does it
Speaker 1: for this edition of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Join us again
Speaker 1: Monday morning at five am Wall Street Time for the
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Speaker 1: start your day. I'm John Tucker at this is Bloomberg.