1 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:05,360 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look a hand 2 00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: of the top stories in the coming week from our 3 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:10,400 Speaker 1: day Break anchors all around the world. Hand just ahead 4 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:14,200 Speaker 1: on the program. It's the mother of all economic reports, 5 00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: the unemployment report coming out on John Tucker in New York. 6 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:20,959 Speaker 1: I'm Ryan Turtis in Hong Kong. Two interesting chapters of 7 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:25,079 Speaker 1: China's upcoming Communist Party Congress. I'm Caroline him in London 8 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 1: for the World Aviation Festival in Amsterdam. The CEO is 9 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:31,639 Speaker 1: what we're speaking to Bloomberg. I'm Any Morris in Washington. 10 00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:35,880 Speaker 1: This midterm election is unusually hard to hold. That's all 11 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 1: straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg eleven three, 12 00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 1: on New York, Bloomberg one, Washington d C, Bloomberg one 13 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:48,199 Speaker 1: oh six one Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, San Francisco, d 14 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 1: A B Digital Radio, London, Sirius XM one nine and 15 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 1: around the world on Bloomberg Radio dot com and via 16 00:00:55,080 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business App. Hi, everybody, I'm John Tucker, and 17 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:04,560 Speaker 1: let's try today's program with a look ahead to the 18 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:09,199 Speaker 1: coming jobs report. Joining me for more, Bloomberg reporter Matt 19 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:12,240 Speaker 1: Bosler Matt in the introduction, I called it the mother 20 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 1: of all economic reports? Is it still or we are 21 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:19,279 Speaker 1: firmly focused on inflation reports instead of the job's report 22 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 1: these days? Well, it's definitely competing a lot more with 23 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:25,679 Speaker 1: inflation these days, but I would say it probably still 24 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:28,480 Speaker 1: is the mother of all economic reports. It's pretty critical 25 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:31,640 Speaker 1: over the next several months and into the next year 26 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 1: for determining the trajectory for the Federal Reserve and therefore 27 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:38,680 Speaker 1: for financial markets more broadly. Yeah, And a big component 28 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 1: of that is if the job's market is strong, the 29 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 1: wages companies are paying their workers more, and that feeds 30 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 1: into the whole inflation picture. Right. That's the thing. We 31 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 1: have very high inflation right now. It's it's north of 32 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 1: eight percent, it's the highest in four decades. But a 33 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 1: lot of that is presumed to be due to supply 34 00:01:56,960 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 1: chain problems, supply side factors that are expected to dissipate 35 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: and resolve over the next several months and into next year. 36 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 1: So the big question is, once all of that stuff 37 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,559 Speaker 1: goes away, what is sort of the underlying rate of inflation? 38 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 1: Setting all of that aside, economists and forecasters, policymakers at 39 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:18,239 Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve, for example, tend to think that wage 40 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 1: growth is really the underlying factor, uh that determines where 41 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:25,960 Speaker 1: inflation is headed. And so wage growth is still very 42 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 1: high right now at around six and so set officials 43 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 1: are really looking for, you know, that to moderate in 44 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:36,280 Speaker 1: order to feel more confident that inflation is going to 45 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 1: come all the way back down to two once those 46 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:42,919 Speaker 1: supply side facts take care of themselves. Okay, So, how 47 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 1: strong is the labor market in the US and are 48 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 1: there going to be signs of some cracks in the 49 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:53,920 Speaker 1: labor market going forward, especially with this coming report. You know, 50 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 1: the labor market is just looking incredibly strong right now, 51 00:02:57,240 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: and it's a bit of a puzzle for economists who 52 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 1: would have expected to see more softening there as the 53 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:06,920 Speaker 1: Fed has raised rates over the last six months. You know, 54 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 1: we just got the latest reading on initial jobless claims 55 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 1: on Thursday. For last week it fell, uh, you know, 56 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 1: weekly initial claims fell below two hundred thousand again for 57 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:20,800 Speaker 1: the first time in several months. Are now near the 58 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 1: lowest levels of this expansion. Yeah, that was you know, 59 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:27,799 Speaker 1: that's that's one of these good news bad news scenarios. 60 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:31,680 Speaker 1: You get a really good labor market report and then 61 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:34,519 Speaker 1: stocks you know, sort of go off a cliff. So 62 00:03:34,720 --> 00:03:38,119 Speaker 1: it's that's what we're contending with. Explain that to everybody 63 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: why that happens, Well, I mean, that really speaks to 64 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 1: where we're at right now with Federal Reserve policy. You know, 65 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 1: the Fed is looking for the economy to soften. It's 66 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 1: not softening, which means they're probably going to be inclined 67 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 1: to raise interest rates even higher than they're already saying, 68 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:57,440 Speaker 1: which is you know, quite high already. So the question 69 00:03:57,640 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 1: is does the Federal Reserve it has a dual mandate, 70 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 1: by the way, as everybody knows, uh, price control, price pressures, 71 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:10,600 Speaker 1: easing price pressures, lowering the rate of inflation, and full employment. 72 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:14,120 Speaker 1: So do they have with that dual mandate, do they 73 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 1: have to torpedo the labor market to bring prices down? 74 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:20,800 Speaker 1: This is a really interesting thing because you know, they're 75 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 1: projecting a higher unemployment right next year. They see it 76 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 1: rising a four point four at the end of next 77 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:29,520 Speaker 1: year from the current levels around three point seven percent, 78 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:32,480 Speaker 1: and they think that's necessary to bring inflation down. They 79 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:34,839 Speaker 1: need to see some softening in the labor market to 80 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:37,599 Speaker 1: moderate that wage growth, and then to bring inflation down, So, 81 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:39,479 Speaker 1: you know, you kind of scratch your head, is that 82 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 1: really consistent with their full employment mandate. What they say 83 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 1: is that price stability is a precursor to full employment, 84 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:48,799 Speaker 1: and so that's kind of how they swear that circle 85 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:51,039 Speaker 1: that you know, we need to get inflation down because 86 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:54,159 Speaker 1: that will set the stage for a healthy labor market 87 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:56,919 Speaker 1: over the longer run. Now that's a contexted notion, but 88 00:04:57,080 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 1: that's what they're saying at the moment. So what's the 89 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 1: prediction right now from economist ahead of the release of 90 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:06,920 Speaker 1: the report. So economists expect the unemployment rate to stay 91 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:12,360 Speaker 1: unchanged at three point seven in September from last month. 92 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 1: The other big number to watch is labor force participation. 93 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:18,800 Speaker 1: That was sixty two point four percent last month, but 94 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 1: it picked up quite a bit from the month before, 95 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 1: and that's something that we've really been waiting to see 96 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:26,680 Speaker 1: and hadn't really seen until just last month. If that continues, 97 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:29,359 Speaker 1: that's going to be really important because that's one way 98 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:32,239 Speaker 1: that um, you know, some of that labor supply could 99 00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 1: return and take some pressure off of wages and prices 100 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 1: without necessarily having to see um, you know, weaker labor demand. Uh, 101 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:44,040 Speaker 1: so that's a big one to watch for sure. Okay, 102 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:46,919 Speaker 1: the Federalserve officials have been tightening, and we have to 103 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 1: remind everybody that their policy acts with a lag. So 104 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:56,680 Speaker 1: is it possible we've already passed the point of where 105 00:05:56,680 --> 00:06:00,160 Speaker 1: the policy starts to take effect. And maybe there's an 106 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 1: indication that the Federal Reserve officials have gone too far 107 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 1: given how long they've been raising rates. Now, they started 108 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 1: in March, but they were obviously signaling rate hikes even 109 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:13,440 Speaker 1: before then, which worked its way into longer term interest rates. 110 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:17,280 Speaker 1: We haven't really seen that showing up in the economic 111 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 1: data yet. Economists would expect it to start showing up 112 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:23,479 Speaker 1: around now. And so the big question going forward is 113 00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:26,440 Speaker 1: do we start to see that having a fact or 114 00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:29,039 Speaker 1: is it possible that the economy is just, for whatever 115 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:32,520 Speaker 1: reason less sensitive to interest rates then it used to be. 116 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:35,600 Speaker 1: One big thing that did happen during the pandemic is 117 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:38,240 Speaker 1: all of the money that the government pumped into the 118 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:41,159 Speaker 1: economy allowed a lot of people to pay down debt. 119 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:44,600 Speaker 1: And so maybe, uh, you know, consumers and businesses are 120 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 1: just not as interest sensitive as they used to be. 121 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 1: In that case, the Fed may have to raise rates 122 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 1: higher in order to gain traction and and really starts 123 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:57,120 Speaker 1: closing down. Matt. Always a pleasure. Thanks for explaining things 124 00:06:57,160 --> 00:06:59,720 Speaker 1: to Bloomberg reporter Matt Bosler. And just to hit on 125 00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:03,240 Speaker 1: bloom Break Daybreak Weekend, some big weeks coming for China's 126 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:06,480 Speaker 1: economy and the political scene. There, I'm John Tucker and 127 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:17,280 Speaker 1: busm This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, a global look ahead 128 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 1: of the top stories from investors in the coming week. 129 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:21,760 Speaker 1: I'm John Tucker in New York. Up later in the 130 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 1: program here comes the World Aviation Festival in Amsterdam. But 131 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 1: first China's economy and political leadership and focus this coming 132 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 1: week and for more, let's head to Hong Kong and 133 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:37,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak Asia host Brian Curtis John. Over the next 134 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 1: couple of weeks, we'll be taking a close look at 135 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 1: the Communist Party Congress in China coming up later this month. 136 00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 1: In this segment, we'll focus on two specific areas. One 137 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 1: a possible overhaul of the Chinese economy and secondly, future leaders, 138 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 1: including who might eventually succeed Shijin Ping as Secretary General. 139 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:00,440 Speaker 1: We have Premier Lika Chong as well as the economics 140 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 1: are Leo Hu PBOC Governor Ye Young and others likely 141 00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 1: to step down early next year. Now that's based on 142 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 1: retirement age and term limits for senior officials. New leadership 143 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 1: might lead to new direction, though President She himself is 144 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 1: expected to secure a third term as party chief. Joining 145 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:23,239 Speaker 1: us for discussion is Marvin Chen, China and North Asia 146 00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:27,640 Speaker 1: equity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Crystal chap who's China 147 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 1: assignment reporter on finance at Bloomberg News. So Marvin, let's 148 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:35,960 Speaker 1: go to you first. Plenty of big issues to be 149 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 1: discussed at the Congress. Confidence is low among both households 150 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 1: and businesses, and of course there's a certain degree of 151 00:08:44,559 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 1: external attention with with the West. We spoke earlier with 152 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 1: Leland Miller, CEO at China Beije Book, and he told 153 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 1: us China is actually facing increasing risks from deflation. We're 154 00:08:57,040 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: not in deflation yet, but you know, we're heading into 155 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 1: the winter. And a lot of people say, oh, this 156 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:03,679 Speaker 1: will bring economic stimulus after the Party Congress, it will 157 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:06,600 Speaker 1: bring an end to COVID zero lockdowns. I don't think 158 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 1: that's the case. And moreover, if you have more COVID 159 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:12,200 Speaker 1: and more COVID zero lockdowns, You're really going to have 160 00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:15,560 Speaker 1: a problem with the threat of deflation looming. So again 161 00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 1: Leland Miller there China base book. So Marvin, what might 162 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 1: we expect on COVID policy out of the Congress? Yeah, 163 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:25,480 Speaker 1: thank you, Brian. Well, first I just want to emphasize 164 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 1: that the Party Congress is largely a political event, so 165 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 1: we shouldn't expect any immediately policy changes coming from the Congress, 166 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:35,960 Speaker 1: but we can get signals on the policy direction in 167 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:39,559 Speaker 1: the coming months once the leadership transition is in place. 168 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:42,840 Speaker 1: For COVID um, you know, cases have been coming down 169 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:45,480 Speaker 1: in recent weeks and the last major city, chanin Do 170 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:48,960 Speaker 1: that was under lockdown is now reopening. So the Congress 171 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 1: could be an opportune time for the Party to declare 172 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 1: small victory and the effectiveness of the current COVID policies. 173 00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 1: But we think the changes will be gradual, perhaps another 174 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 1: reduction in the in bound quarantine requirements, and the gradual 175 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:04,839 Speaker 1: reduction may be similar to what we saw in Hong Kong, 176 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 1: but the semi lockdowns when cases rise may still be 177 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 1: looming and lasting into two thousand three. Is there a 178 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:14,440 Speaker 1: sense that Hong Kong might be an experiment that they're 179 00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 1: watching to see how it might be applied to China. Yeah, definitely. 180 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:23,360 Speaker 1: You know, Hong Kong will be closely watched how the 181 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:27,960 Speaker 1: reopening of Hong Kong affects cases. But you know, we 182 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:31,000 Speaker 1: we think that the Hong Kong reopening is uh more 183 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 1: significant because they want to keep Hong Kong as a 184 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 1: international finance hub. As you mentioned, the party Congress will 185 00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:41,920 Speaker 1: deal with leadership issues. So I'm just curious. So who 186 00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:46,440 Speaker 1: might be tapped to become the next premier? Um, well, 187 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:48,679 Speaker 1: I mean we we do know that the Ka Chang 188 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 1: is going to retire, but you know there's a speculation 189 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 1: on a few names. Um, you know, I don't want 190 00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:58,040 Speaker 1: to uh go, and I mean it's hard to speculating guests, 191 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:01,160 Speaker 1: but it's Leo Hu's name. Per ups in that circle. 192 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:04,880 Speaker 1: We think Leo ja is reaching the retirement age and 193 00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:07,680 Speaker 1: he may be may be stepping down, and so no 194 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 1: exception made on that. Okay, let's talk a little bit 195 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 1: about housing. I know that it's not so much economic policy, 196 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 1: but this is a this is a story that runs 197 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 1: right through society in China. Are we expected to see 198 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:22,520 Speaker 1: some measures at least in the next month or two 199 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:25,760 Speaker 1: to shore up housing. Yeah, there's not going to be 200 00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:28,560 Speaker 1: a quick fix to China's property issues at the moment, 201 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 1: and it'll take some time to restore the market sentiment. 202 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:35,080 Speaker 1: Many of these measures will be uh will vary from 203 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:38,240 Speaker 1: city to city and left up to local government discrestion. Okay, 204 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:40,480 Speaker 1: for part two in our discussion, we wanted to talk 205 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 1: a little bit about future leadership. You're we mentioned that 206 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 1: we know that elites will take up the key leadership positions, 207 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:50,959 Speaker 1: but there's another group that will also advance, and these 208 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 1: are being called the luckiest generation. They were born back 209 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:57,720 Speaker 1: in the nineteen seventies. They missed both the chaotic era 210 00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:01,120 Speaker 1: of Mount ze Dong, particularly towards the end. They got 211 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 1: their education and grounding before the troubles of this most 212 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:08,520 Speaker 1: recent period. They had a brief window of Internet freedom 213 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:12,280 Speaker 1: wto membership and all that that meant, as well as 214 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:16,680 Speaker 1: global mobility, and those freedoms have now been somewhat restricted 215 00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:20,680 Speaker 1: by censorship, trade actions and COVID border closure. Let's bring 216 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 1: in Crystal for a little bit of insight on this 217 00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:27,440 Speaker 1: wonderful story. So give us one name, Crystal, that you 218 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:29,679 Speaker 1: think kind of stands out as the future high flyer. 219 00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:33,680 Speaker 1: So I think arguably the most high profile leader in 220 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:37,320 Speaker 1: this cohort of politicians born in the nineteen seventies. Um 221 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:41,320 Speaker 1: It's step the deputy party secretary in Shanghaim. His name 222 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:44,839 Speaker 1: is to So he's been known as a right hand 223 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 1: man to the current Shanghai Party chief Letia, who is 224 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:52,680 Speaker 1: a longtime associate of presidency and the financial hub of 225 00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 1: Shanghai is traditionally a springboard to higher office. Seizing pay 226 00:12:56,920 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 1: himself as a former Shaghai party secretary. Many probably the 227 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:04,120 Speaker 1: observers have noticed Jugo is one of the most promising 228 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:08,080 Speaker 1: younger politicians to sporn in the nineteen seventies. And broadly speaking, 229 00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:12,360 Speaker 1: why is this generation important? So it's likely that Seizing 230 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 1: things success so will emerge from this generation. They will 231 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 1: rise to power just as he gets very very old. 232 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:22,320 Speaker 1: So current age limits and norms meant that those born 233 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 1: in the nineteen sixties will have to retire over the 234 00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:27,960 Speaker 1: next decade. So that would clear a path for those 235 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 1: born in the nineteen seventies to join the Politburo. So 236 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:34,079 Speaker 1: the idea and the logic is that they will first 237 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 1: join UM the Central Committee this month as alternate members 238 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 1: become full members in the next Congress and then right 239 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 1: to the Politburo in the Congress. I'm also curious about 240 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:49,680 Speaker 1: whether or not these leaders will be more globalist in nature. 241 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:53,040 Speaker 1: I mean, might they be looking externally as much as 242 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 1: internally for the development of China. One thing that stands 243 00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:59,960 Speaker 1: out from the shared experience of this cohort of positition 244 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:02,560 Speaker 1: s born in the nineteen seventies is that they have 245 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 1: witnessed and in fact experienced the benefits of China's startling 246 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:11,600 Speaker 1: economic rights. So that gives rise to two arguments. One 247 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:14,120 Speaker 1: is that because that they have enjoyed the benefits and 248 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 1: they have had possibly a more international education, so they 249 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 1: will open up China at just potentially the right time. 250 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:24,880 Speaker 1: On the other hand, we could also argue that because 251 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker 1: you have only experienced the so called good times, it 252 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 1: is much easier for them to internalize the idea that 253 00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 1: the party enrich our society, and that would um help 254 00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:39,920 Speaker 1: them to enforce the seaters co. Yeah, so a lot 255 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:43,080 Speaker 1: needs to unfold over the next many years. Crystal, thanks 256 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Chrystal China assignment reporter on 257 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 1: finance at Bloomberg News, and Marvin Chen thank you as well. 258 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:53,920 Speaker 1: China and North Asia, equity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. I'm 259 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 1: Brian Curtis along with Doug Chrisner. You can catch us 260 00:14:57,000 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 1: every weekday here for Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, beginning at six 261 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 1: am in Hong Kong and six pm on Wall Street. 262 00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:07,160 Speaker 1: John Brian, thanks a lot. Just ahead on Bloomberg day 263 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:11,920 Speaker 1: Break Weekend, the High Flying World Aviation Festival in Amsterdam. 264 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 1: I'm John Tucker On. This is Bloomberg broadcasting live from 265 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:32,320 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York. Bloomberg evon 266 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:36,960 Speaker 1: Freo to Washington, d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one 267 00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:40,360 Speaker 1: oh six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg NIXT to the 268 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:43,880 Speaker 1: country Sirius XM Channel one nine to London d A 269 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:47,360 Speaker 1: B Digital Radio, and around the globe the Bloomberg Business 270 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 1: app and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. 271 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:01,520 Speaker 1: I'm John Tuckery New York with your love log stories 272 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 1: for investors in the coming week. The World that Idiot 273 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:07,840 Speaker 1: and festival happens next week in Amsterdam. For more Land, 274 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:12,080 Speaker 1: Said to London, bringing Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor Caroline Hepger, 275 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 1: John sawing dollar denominated fuel costs, a chaotic post COVID 276 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:20,920 Speaker 1: summer travel season, and sustainable aviation. The airline industry certainly 277 00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 1: has some challenges. Jo, what I mean now is Bloomberg 278 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:26,400 Speaker 1: anchor Guy Johnson, who is off to Amsterdam. Then in 279 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 1: the coming few days, Well, we hope you're going to 280 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:33,640 Speaker 1: be off term. What is the biggest issue then in 281 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:36,240 Speaker 1: your view for the industry? Is it production? Is it 282 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:39,000 Speaker 1: the passenger fuel costs? What do you think? It's all 283 00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:41,280 Speaker 1: of the current It's all of the above. This is 284 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:44,800 Speaker 1: an industry that shut down during the pandemic, which was unprecedented. 285 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:49,800 Speaker 1: It has then had to completely readjust to a summer 286 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 1: that has been much stronger than anticipated. The capacity has 287 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 1: not been there. We've all read the stories about the 288 00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 1: chaos that has ensued as a result of that. It 289 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 1: has been a European problem, it's been a problem over 290 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 1: in the United States, it's been a problem down in Australia. 291 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:06,359 Speaker 1: All of the airlines have been suffering from the same issue. 292 00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:08,480 Speaker 1: But then, but the challenge now comes in. As much 293 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:12,080 Speaker 1: as they've they've ramped up capacity once again to meet 294 00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 1: this demand. But when now we're going into a cost 295 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:17,240 Speaker 1: of living crisis. A lot of people book their summer 296 00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:20,680 Speaker 1: leisure trips as they came out of the pandemic. Let 297 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 1: me go anywhere. I don't care where, I just want 298 00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:26,040 Speaker 1: to go on holiday. But now energy prices are rising, 299 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:29,159 Speaker 1: mortgage costs are rising. Are people going to continue to book? 300 00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 1: And if they're not going to book, will business travel 301 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:34,119 Speaker 1: make up the game? Yeah? I mean I was really 302 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:35,840 Speaker 1: just the other day. I don't know whether you've seen 303 00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:37,800 Speaker 1: this the October half term here in the UK where 304 00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:40,760 Speaker 1: people might go and grab some summer son. Apparently airline 305 00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:44,359 Speaker 1: ticket prices have gone up something like for travel to 306 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 1: places like tenor Reef and elsewhere. Look, you cover all 307 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:50,639 Speaker 1: the kind of global aviation industry Shindix, what do you 308 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:52,880 Speaker 1: think the atmosphere is actually going to be like? Then 309 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 1: sort of paints a picture and really importantly, who are 310 00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:58,120 Speaker 1: you going to be speaking to for blue bo TV 311 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:00,399 Speaker 1: and radio? I think it's going to be called So 312 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:03,720 Speaker 1: if you're an airline boss, you are, from a d 313 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:06,199 Speaker 1: N A point of view, an optimistic person you have 314 00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:07,959 Speaker 1: to be. If you want to run an airline, you 315 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,400 Speaker 1: have got to be an optimistic person. But I would 316 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,480 Speaker 1: say even the most optimistic airline CEO at the moment, 317 00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 1: it's probably feeling fairly cautious. Um, there's a lot going on. 318 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:19,720 Speaker 1: There's a lot of non unknowns that they have to 319 00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:22,520 Speaker 1: deal with, so so I think there will be certainly 320 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 1: a note of caution. We're going to be speaking to 321 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:27,600 Speaker 1: a whole range of carriers from around the world, and 322 00:18:27,600 --> 00:18:30,440 Speaker 1: that's what's great about these things. Airline CEOs are actually 323 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 1: prepared to get on an airplane and come to these 324 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 1: kinds of events. So we've got Willie Walsh is going 325 00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 1: to be there. He'll give us the sort of top 326 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:39,920 Speaker 1: down picture from my art. That's the industry body. We're 327 00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 1: being hosted by the new KLM ceo. UM. There are 328 00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 1: many female CEOs in this industry, so it's great that 329 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,600 Speaker 1: she is. She is kind of hosting this event effectively 330 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 1: for us. She's just been in the job for a 331 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:53,439 Speaker 1: hundred days. It's gonna be really interesting to get her 332 00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:57,240 Speaker 1: take Marion Riddler of what is happening with the airline. 333 00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:00,880 Speaker 1: Then we've got some of the big kind of global carriers. 334 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,200 Speaker 1: So Tim Clark is going to be there from Emirates, 335 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:05,800 Speaker 1: be injurged to get his take. He has a pretty 336 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 1: global picture of what is going on quantas is CEO 337 00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 1: Alan Joyce is going to be there, so you're getting 338 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:15,280 Speaker 1: you're getting the kind of the whole range um and 339 00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 1: I think actually I'm quite curious to hear from from 340 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:20,280 Speaker 1: some of the long haul carriers because you mentioned tenn 341 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 1: a Reef. I think that's quite interesting. People are shortening 342 00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 1: the length they're going to be prepared to fly for 343 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 1: winter sun and it's going to be interesting. You mentioned 344 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:30,240 Speaker 1: tenner Reef. Tenner Reef has quite a good winter sun. 345 00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:33,480 Speaker 1: But normally people will be going to Australia, they'd be 346 00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 1: going to the Caribbean, they'd be going to quite far 347 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:40,200 Speaker 1: flung places to reach that wind sun. My understanding is 348 00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 1: that they're going to be flying shorter distances to get 349 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:46,000 Speaker 1: that little that little rare. There you go. You can 350 00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:47,840 Speaker 1: you can tell that I was looking it up on 351 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,720 Speaker 1: me on the internet, can't you. Well. The October rises 352 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 1: are looking like look interesting that you mentioned i Ata 353 00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:55,879 Speaker 1: and great stuff. Really excited to hear about all the 354 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:57,760 Speaker 1: CEOs that you're going to be able to listen to 355 00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:00,840 Speaker 1: on on radio and of course watch on tv UM. 356 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:05,040 Speaker 1: Iata says that they are optimistic that governments will sign 357 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:07,439 Speaker 1: up to the target of net zero emissions for the 358 00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:10,800 Speaker 1: sector by twenty fifty. There's a critical meeting coming up 359 00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:14,480 Speaker 1: in Canada de Carbonization, the road to de carbonization for 360 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:18,000 Speaker 1: these airline industries. It's really challenging, it is. It is 361 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:20,040 Speaker 1: a huge challenge. It is interesting. Easy Jet has just 362 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,359 Speaker 1: moved away from its offset scheme which didn't work, so 363 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:26,120 Speaker 1: they're trying all kinds of different things trying to make 364 00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 1: this work. The biggest, the biggest thing that that the 365 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:32,040 Speaker 1: industry needs from governments is a policy pledge to make 366 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:36,480 Speaker 1: sustainable aviation fuel in quantities, So that needs that needs 367 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 1: a tax reset to be able to allow that to happen. 368 00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:42,760 Speaker 1: Joe Biden, just over in the United States has started 369 00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:44,919 Speaker 1: down this down this road. It's going to be intrigued 370 00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 1: to hear from Quantus. They're very keen for the Australian 371 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:51,520 Speaker 1: government to to actually step in and deliver significant policy 372 00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:54,080 Speaker 1: around this kind of area that will allow the sustainable 373 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:56,880 Speaker 1: aviation industry to grow. Guy, thanks so much for being 374 00:20:56,920 --> 00:20:58,640 Speaker 1: with us, Wishing you all the best of luck. Will 375 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 1: be tuning in of course to get all of those 376 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 1: CEO interviews from the World Aviation Festival that takes place 377 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:06,800 Speaker 1: in the coming days in Amsterdam. Thanks so much to 378 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:09,440 Speaker 1: Guy Johnson. I'm Caroline Hedge in London. You can catch 379 00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 1: us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak, beginning at six 380 00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:16,000 Speaker 1: am in London. That's what I am on More Street, John, Caroline, 381 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,359 Speaker 1: thanks a lot. Just ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, watch 382 00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:22,520 Speaker 1: for more mud slinging as the mid term elections near. 383 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 1: I'm John Tucker, and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg 384 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,439 Speaker 1: Daybreak Weekend Global, looking ahead of the top stories for 385 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:37,640 Speaker 1: investors in the coming week. I'm John Tucker in New York. 386 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,480 Speaker 1: The mid term election season shifting in the high gear 387 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 1: this coming week, with the November eighth elections getting closer evermore. 388 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:48,000 Speaker 1: Let's head to our Bloomberg ninety one newsroom in Washington 389 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,280 Speaker 1: and Amy Morris, Thank you, John. President Biden has been 390 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,399 Speaker 1: ramping up the rhetoric as the mid terms near, and 391 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,560 Speaker 1: he steps up the campaign appearances and other public speeches. 392 00:21:57,880 --> 00:21:59,680 Speaker 1: You can't claim to be a party of law in 393 00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 1: or and call the people to attack the police in 394 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 1: January six patriots. Now, as President Biden and other Democrats 395 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:10,439 Speaker 1: continue to try to use issues surrounding January six to 396 00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,479 Speaker 1: their advantage. Republicans are trying to use a lot of 397 00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,760 Speaker 1: hot button issues as well to their advantage. One of 398 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:18,880 Speaker 1: the issues they may try to turn to their political 399 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:22,399 Speaker 1: advantage the January six riots, including some people who are 400 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:25,960 Speaker 1: actually there. We talk about this now, Bloomberg political reporter 401 00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:29,680 Speaker 1: Ryan tigue beckwith Ryan. It is a pleasure as always, 402 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:33,000 Speaker 1: Thanks so much for joining us. All right. So, former 403 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:35,560 Speaker 1: President Trump has not yet announced his bid for the 404 00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:38,640 Speaker 1: White House, but he has been pushing back at President 405 00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 1: Biden's claims of success. Uh. Here is the former president 406 00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:45,640 Speaker 1: now at a rally in Ohio just recently. It's been 407 00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:49,520 Speaker 1: one of the worst years for stops in history. How 408 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 1: are you, for a one case doing not too good? 409 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,280 Speaker 1: All right? So, Ryan, how powerful an argument is this 410 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:57,960 Speaker 1: for Republicans? Is this something that can maybe move the 411 00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:01,760 Speaker 1: needle or sway independence? You know, I've never really understood 412 00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:04,199 Speaker 1: Trump's focus on for one case, because a lot of 413 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,440 Speaker 1: the people who really vote based on the economy don't 414 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 1: have forewarn case. I think the broader point here is 415 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:13,919 Speaker 1: our employment doing doing and so I think that the 416 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:19,040 Speaker 1: broader argument there about the economy is is still probably 417 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:22,439 Speaker 1: in the Republicans. Uh, you know, on their ledger on 418 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:25,920 Speaker 1: the positive side, giving them a boost. Um, I think 419 00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:28,680 Speaker 1: that there's a question, a real open question of how 420 00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:34,200 Speaker 1: much other issues like abortion may counter the countervailing forces 421 00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,840 Speaker 1: there for Democrats this time around. But I still feel 422 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:40,879 Speaker 1: like the economy is just is too uncertain and for 423 00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:44,000 Speaker 1: it to be a boost to Biden at this point. 424 00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:47,000 Speaker 1: So we're coming up now on a busy week at 425 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,959 Speaker 1: the Supreme Court, shifting gears just a bit. The political 426 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 1: world still reverberating from the rollback of abortion rights. If 427 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 1: the economy isn't necessarily going to move the needle for everyone, 428 00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 1: how is the abortion you're going to play out for 429 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,399 Speaker 1: the GOP specifically? Yeah, I mean I think that there 430 00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:05,320 Speaker 1: was a long for a long time, there was an 431 00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 1: advantage here for the Republicans in that the status quo 432 00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:12,280 Speaker 1: was sort of assumed by supporters of abortion rights to be, 433 00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:17,199 Speaker 1: you know, not changing, and if you're a Republican, you 434 00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:20,440 Speaker 1: could go out there and campaign on how you're going 435 00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:24,919 Speaker 1: to abortion or you're going to you know, things like 436 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:28,359 Speaker 1: partial birth abortion or a parent notifications or things like that, 437 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,239 Speaker 1: where they could kind of find the wedge issues that 438 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:35,520 Speaker 1: would sway a number of people. Since the Dobb's decision. 439 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:37,840 Speaker 1: We really seem like a reversal in the pool. But 440 00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:39,960 Speaker 1: there's a lot more people who are concerned about this 441 00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:42,760 Speaker 1: who are abortion right supporters than opponents. And there's a 442 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,159 Speaker 1: lot of people who say in the past, what it 443 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:47,879 Speaker 1: said that they were pro life, and now we're saying 444 00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:52,440 Speaker 1: but you know, I would sort of like the standard 445 00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:54,480 Speaker 1: that there was during reversus a way to be with 446 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:58,200 Speaker 1: the law. I do think that that is a factor. 447 00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,440 Speaker 1: I don't know how much of a factor. I mean, 448 00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:03,520 Speaker 1: it could be a thing where it cuts into the 449 00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 1: Republican margin, but not enough to prevent Republicans from prevailing 450 00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:11,240 Speaker 1: in the House and picking up some sentences. So it 451 00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 1: could be a factor but not enough of a factor. 452 00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:17,359 Speaker 1: Or it could completely change the electorate. I mean, we 453 00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:20,359 Speaker 1: have seen some evidence that voter registriations about young women 454 00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:24,440 Speaker 1: especially are unusually high. It's a real hard one to pull. 455 00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:26,280 Speaker 1: It's a real hard nitt term to pull. I don't 456 00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 1: think we've seen one like this. The other flip side 457 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:32,480 Speaker 1: of that coin is that maybe people who supported Republicans 458 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:36,600 Speaker 1: are who supported Donald Trump before aren't as motivated to 459 00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:41,280 Speaker 1: go to the polls because abortion perhaps was their wedge issue, 460 00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:45,080 Speaker 1: and now it has been resolved, the Supreme Court has 461 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:47,879 Speaker 1: had that handed down that decision, right, it does drain 462 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,200 Speaker 1: a little bit of the energy there. And I think 463 00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 1: that you saw like Trump was very effectively able to 464 00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,720 Speaker 1: get people back into his corner who were maybe skeptical 465 00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,960 Speaker 1: of him. But we're republic against them, We're um anti 466 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:06,320 Speaker 1: abortion rights, those folks. We're swayed kind of at the 467 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,960 Speaker 1: last minute by his argument that like you got to 468 00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:11,960 Speaker 1: come home, you know, I can quit juststicism the Supreme Court, 469 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,040 Speaker 1: And that was basically to feel that he made with them, 470 00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:16,600 Speaker 1: I can go to the justices and not in like 471 00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:20,639 Speaker 1: a five four situation, but like feeling a pretty confident 472 00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:23,800 Speaker 1: six three conservative majority in the screen courts, Like I 473 00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:28,119 Speaker 1: think that really becomes much less of an effective argument 474 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:31,440 Speaker 1: if there are other things that are sort of depressing 475 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:33,679 Speaker 1: them or keeping them from wanting to turn out. You 476 00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,760 Speaker 1: would mentioned Ryan that this particular mid term is hard 477 00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,520 Speaker 1: to pull. Why is that? What is the perfect storm 478 00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,320 Speaker 1: that we're witnessing that makes this one so unusual? You know, 479 00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:44,920 Speaker 1: there is just a there. You could do a whole 480 00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:48,400 Speaker 1: hour on what's up with pulling lately? And the real 481 00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:51,560 Speaker 1: problem with pulling is not so much figuring out what 482 00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,360 Speaker 1: people think, because we can easily pull and tell you 483 00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:58,600 Speaker 1: what what people think. Um. The problem is whether those 484 00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:00,679 Speaker 1: are the people who are going to show up to vote, 485 00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:04,920 Speaker 1: and it's Pulsters have different ways of doing this. Sometimes 486 00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:07,359 Speaker 1: they will just pull people that they know voted in 487 00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:10,879 Speaker 1: previous elections. Sometimes they will ask people they do vote. 488 00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,840 Speaker 1: Of course, you know, everyone says yeah, I voted, because 489 00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:16,000 Speaker 1: no one wants to say that they're like a bad 490 00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:19,240 Speaker 1: citizens um. Or you know, they may say you intended 491 00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:21,320 Speaker 1: to vote. You know, if the election were helped today, 492 00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:24,879 Speaker 1: how would you vote? And the composes are all very inexact, 493 00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:28,360 Speaker 1: and there's also some noise in the data. It appears 494 00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:31,639 Speaker 1: that maybe some Trump supporters have just run so skeptical 495 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,480 Speaker 1: of institutions in general that they don't respond to poll 496 00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:38,399 Speaker 1: or that they don't tell polsters that they're going to vote, 497 00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,520 Speaker 1: or maybe just that they're off the grid enough that 498 00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:44,240 Speaker 1: it's hard to get ahold of them and so they're 499 00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:47,080 Speaker 1: not being captured by that. So we do see that 500 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:51,080 Speaker 1: there's some potential here that the pools are understating Republicans 501 00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,760 Speaker 1: in sowing Democrats ahead, and some of the Senate races, 502 00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,080 Speaker 1: and we may wake up the day after the election 503 00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:58,360 Speaker 1: and find that Republicans actually did quite well in those 504 00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,600 Speaker 1: races that they were cast of movies, like in Georgia 505 00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:06,359 Speaker 1: and Pennsylvania, or you know, it may not be the 506 00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:08,159 Speaker 1: case when we may find that there's another group of 507 00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:11,239 Speaker 1: people that we've missed, like him, women that were you know, 508 00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:16,080 Speaker 1: under stampling. So I really take polls with much more 509 00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:20,320 Speaker 1: solt than your doctor would recommend. Right now, Well, we 510 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 1: are talking with Bloomberg political reporter Ryan tigue beckwith about 511 00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:27,400 Speaker 1: the unusual nature of this mid term election. Ryan, lets 512 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:31,480 Speaker 1: shift gears a bit to Pennsylvania. Democratic sending candidate John 513 00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:33,840 Speaker 1: Fetterman was at a rally this past week, and he 514 00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 1: promised to quantify Roe v. Wade if the state sends 515 00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:44,600 Speaker 1: him to Washington. My name is John feder Woman. His 516 00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:47,760 Speaker 1: Republican opponent, mem and Oz has agreed to release his 517 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:51,400 Speaker 1: medical records. He also continues to pressure Federman to release 518 00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:54,160 Speaker 1: his following that stroke that Federman had back in May. 519 00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 1: I don't know if he's medically fit. Holdough, I'm a 520 00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:57,840 Speaker 1: doctor and I probably should have an opinion on it. 521 00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:00,440 Speaker 1: But the fact is that nobody knows because none of 522 00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:03,160 Speaker 1: us have had access to his medical records, and Frantny 523 00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,840 Speaker 1: that's his decision what records he wants to provide. Okay, 524 00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:08,960 Speaker 1: So Ryan, where do we stand on this race and 525 00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:11,160 Speaker 1: what are you looking for as far as the two 526 00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:13,280 Speaker 1: of them in the coming weeks? Okay? Now, I am 527 00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:15,120 Speaker 1: one of those people who will tell you that debate 528 00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,600 Speaker 1: do not matter. M Everyone always gets all excited about 529 00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:21,680 Speaker 1: debates and makes a big deal about debate um and 530 00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:25,440 Speaker 1: generally speaking, like most debates doesn't really have an effect. 531 00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:28,560 Speaker 1: There's a handful of cases that you could point to 532 00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:31,000 Speaker 1: where they did. This is one of those. I think 533 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,680 Speaker 1: if if Sedderman and are needing a debate, and Sederman 534 00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:38,720 Speaker 1: is able to put on a pretty normal performance for 535 00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:41,240 Speaker 1: a politician, then I think that that will put to 536 00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:46,560 Speaker 1: bed the questions about, you know, his stroke and whether 537 00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:49,440 Speaker 1: he needs a further job. If if he has a 538 00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:53,000 Speaker 1: halting performance or has a moment on stage, or he 539 00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:57,040 Speaker 1: appears lost or isn't able to parry effectively an attack, 540 00:29:57,160 --> 00:30:01,320 Speaker 1: and I think there's medical concerns would really be forefronted 541 00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,000 Speaker 1: by that. So there's a lot of states in the 542 00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:06,680 Speaker 1: two of them leading at a debate and out of 543 00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:10,920 Speaker 1: a very smart guy and a very quick guy, and 544 00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:13,520 Speaker 1: I think this would also be an opportunity for him. 545 00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:19,160 Speaker 1: He's been really flatsported on on social media and some 546 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:22,239 Speaker 1: of his remarks and interviews and things like that. If 547 00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:26,400 Speaker 1: he can manage to get through a debate without saying 548 00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:30,440 Speaker 1: something about crude detas or or no some of the 549 00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:32,880 Speaker 1: things that he said that where he's started trying to 550 00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:36,040 Speaker 1: attack betterman and ends up making him sound cool, Uh, 551 00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:40,320 Speaker 1: then I think that would also could actually move the 552 00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:42,680 Speaker 1: needle a little bit. It's a very close race, much 553 00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:44,920 Speaker 1: closer than I think Democrats were hoping it would be 554 00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:48,920 Speaker 1: at this point, speaking of moving the needle, will immigration issues, 555 00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:52,200 Speaker 1: border issues move the needle? It seems to be getting 556 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,840 Speaker 1: more intense by the day. Where's the traction when it 557 00:30:54,880 --> 00:31:01,680 Speaker 1: comes to immigration. I don't it necessarily enough of a 558 00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:06,920 Speaker 1: crisis to become like an issue for swing voters or 559 00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:09,360 Speaker 1: depress Democrats on the issue or something like that. And 560 00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:12,360 Speaker 1: there's some reason to believe that that the aspensive focused 561 00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:17,080 Speaker 1: on immigration in vers when it really wasn't an issue. 562 00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:21,719 Speaker 1: Is why Donald Trump did better in among Hispanics than 563 00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:24,960 Speaker 1: he did in It may be that there's a cost 564 00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:28,120 Speaker 1: to talking about immigration, because the way that Republicans talk 565 00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:30,760 Speaker 1: about it tends to turn off some people. The other 566 00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:32,520 Speaker 1: reason why this is a weird mid term is that 567 00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:35,320 Speaker 1: it does feel like there's like two separate elections going 568 00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:39,000 Speaker 1: on where Republicans are kind of over in this corner 569 00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:43,880 Speaker 1: talking about immigration and inflation, crime, and Democrats over in 570 00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:48,760 Speaker 1: this corner talking about abortion rights and you know, Biden's 571 00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:54,240 Speaker 1: record and prescription drug prices and whatnot, and and they're 572 00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,600 Speaker 1: the public seems to be kind of in their two 573 00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:00,000 Speaker 1: universes too, like there's this isn't really a thing where 574 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:03,040 Speaker 1: there's an issue and you know, here's what I do 575 00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:05,320 Speaker 1: about it. It's like each has kind of its own 576 00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:08,360 Speaker 1: set of issues. And I think that's the other thing 577 00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:11,680 Speaker 1: is that it's hard to know which motivating enough to 578 00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:15,720 Speaker 1: get the turnout. Okay, we're gonna keep watching it with you, Ryan, 579 00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:20,160 Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Bloomberg political correspondent Ryan tigue beckwith 580 00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:22,720 Speaker 1: and that's what's going on in the nation's capital. For 581 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:25,560 Speaker 1: more of our political news coverage, tune into Balance of 582 00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:28,760 Speaker 1: Power with David Weston weekdays at noon Wall Street Time, 583 00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:32,160 Speaker 1: and Sound On with Joe Matthew weekday afternoons at five 584 00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:35,800 Speaker 1: right here on Bloomberg Radio. I'm Amy Morris and this 585 00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:39,600 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg John. Amy Morris reporting from our Bloomberg ninety 586 00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:42,840 Speaker 1: one newsroom in Washington. Thanks Tommy, and that does it 587 00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:46,120 Speaker 1: for this edition of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Join us again 588 00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:49,120 Speaker 1: Monday morning at five am Wall Street Time for the 589 00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:52,280 Speaker 1: latest on markets overseas and the news you need to 590 00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:55,840 Speaker 1: start your day. I'm John Tucker at this is Bloomberg.