Speaker 1: Ye, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene
Speaker 1: Jay Lee. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Why
Speaker 1: don't you bring in her steam guests? Her children are
Speaker 1: still out there if you couldn't get home from school yesterday.
Speaker 1: Dana is great Tappy with this. Dana and Moa Jpmrkan
Speaker 1: Asset Management, Senior portfolio Manager. I won't start with the politics.
Speaker 1: I want to focus with the markets. This morning, we
Speaker 1: had a really ugly German business confidence read, not on
Speaker 1: current the current situation, but on expectations of what was
Speaker 1: about to come. The data really isn't stabilizing in Europe, Dana,
Speaker 1: what you'll read on things at the moment, I think
Speaker 1: we're almost at the point where we're moving on to
Speaker 1: the second act of this weakness in Europe. Where first
Speaker 1: first bit of weakness we saw last year was being
Speaker 1: blamed on all sorts of supply side constraints, on trade
Speaker 1: wars or what's happening in the auto sector. Now we're
Speaker 1: starting to see that spill over into the consumer side
Speaker 1: and into the demand side. So weak demand is coming
Speaker 1: through on a lot of the surveys. Additionally, we're starting
Speaker 1: to see companies saying some of the constraints that had
Speaker 1: been done the supply side that are actually fading because
Speaker 1: they just they don't see the demand too match it.
Speaker 1: So much more concerning, I'd say for the outlook for
Speaker 1: the German economy, what's the circuit breaker for this weakness?
Speaker 1: Because quite clearly many people come on this program and
Speaker 1: don't think it's the e c B. So where does
Speaker 1: the circuit breaker come from? The circuit breaker comes from
Speaker 1: the politicians. We need to see physical stimulus come in UM.
Speaker 1: That's ultimately what's going to shift the trajectory for growth.
Speaker 1: The longer discontinues, the moil start to impact potential growth UM. Now,
Speaker 1: they've been hesitant to act because they don't see the
Speaker 1: weakness in the labor market. But the minute you get
Speaker 1: an indication that the labor market is starting to slow
Speaker 1: down and we are seeing the momentum on job growth fading,
Speaker 1: then the policymakers will be forced to act. I mean,
Speaker 1: we have built Dudley this question yesterday about one trillion
Speaker 1: dollars US deficit, and what do you do with fiscal
Speaker 1: expansion the United States if you need it? What's the
Speaker 1: ability to have fiscal expansion in Europe? I haven't seen
Speaker 1: a good article yet actually laying out what the catalyst
Speaker 1: will be for individual governments to do with Madame Leguarde
Speaker 1: or Brussels wants to do. I see no evidence of it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think it's on a case by case basis. Unfortunately,
Speaker 1: I think the big conundrum is the countries that have
Speaker 1: some flexibility on fiscal are the ones that needed least. Germany, however,
Speaker 1: now is becoming more of an issue. They certainly have
Speaker 1: the space, um not necessarily the willingness to act decisively,
Speaker 1: but they do have space to do some significant fiscal spend.
Speaker 1: But that's just one part of Europe. What is it?
Speaker 1: It's acluding the UK, which we often do now we
Speaker 1: do do it, Yeah, we do data that now we
Speaker 1: say twenty seven plus we say twenty seven plus one.
Speaker 1: I mean, I mean the basic theme here for our listeners,
Speaker 1: and this includes those coast to coast and Bloomberg Radio,
Speaker 1: is when does this low interest rate environment end? I
Speaker 1: mean I talked to your job Norman or others at
Speaker 1: JP Morgan, and there's just like a desire to get
Speaker 1: back to normalization. What's the glide path to get back
Speaker 1: to normal? Yeah, so it depends on what normal is.
Speaker 1: I would argue, this isn't the new normal, this is
Speaker 1: the normal. So you're managing a fixed in comport for
Speaker 1: ailio assuming this issis this is the new normal where
Speaker 1: the lower bound on money tree policy has decisively shifted
Speaker 1: um and we seek we see investors starting to acknowledge that.
Speaker 1: Hence the yield grab that we've been seeing. People are
Speaker 1: actually thinking, if this environment is here for the for
Speaker 1: the medium term, and inflation expectations and rising, why should
Speaker 1: we not look to lucky meals where we can find
Speaker 1: them right now. A conversation that came up again and
Speaker 1: again and again in the last couple of days with
Speaker 1: Tom and on this program and elsewhere, was the policy
Speaker 1: response from China that we've seen so far. The central Bank,
Speaker 1: the governor speaking again in the last twenty four hours,
Speaker 1: reluctant to aggressively ease, the Finance minister speaking I believe overnight,
Speaker 1: saying that the tax cuts will be bigger than expected.
Speaker 1: The nature of the stimulus in China has changed as
Speaker 1: the character of the spill over changed as well, because
Speaker 1: we've been looking at China trying to stabilize the situation
Speaker 1: for a long time, and I haven't seen any positive
Speaker 1: footullout from that effort. No, completely agree. I think China's
Speaker 1: response has changed. They've accepted a lower growth environment. We
Speaker 1: saw those statements last week saying getting growth back about
Speaker 1: six six percent is going to be challenging for China.
Speaker 1: So there's an acceptance to accept. There's a willingness to
Speaker 1: accept lower growth at the at the at the because
Speaker 1: for them, the big issue is keeping debt levels stable,
Speaker 1: so they don't want to increase net leverage in the system.
Speaker 1: So those two things act in different ways. They are
Speaker 1: focused more on um stimulating consumption domestically rather than historical
Speaker 1: in structure spends which have boosted the external growth, and
Speaker 1: I think for now it's drips and drops for China.
Speaker 1: We're not going to get the big bazooka that we
Speaker 1: had in twenty fifteen or two thousand and eight from
Speaker 1: China unless things really really become diet from here. Dinna
Speaker 1: always loved catching up with you, Dinamo, Jpmorganescent Management Senior
Speaker 1: portfolio manager joining us here in New York. I can
Speaker 1: tell you that talks about talks are leading to more talks,
Speaker 1: the Treasury Secretary, later confirming with Fox News later later
Speaker 1: confirming with Fox News that those talks would commence on
Speaker 1: the week October seven in Washington with each Chinese Vice Premier.
Speaker 1: Marilyn Watson of Black Rock, please weigh in on this craziness.
Speaker 1: Where are we in all of this? Yeah, I mean
Speaker 1: there's a huge amount going on, obviously. I think the
Speaker 1: markets are really focusing still on the trade tensions and
Speaker 1: the talks that are going to be coming up in October.
Speaker 1: We have seen some concessions already from the Chinese in
Speaker 1: terms of as in buying more agriculture, in terms of pork,
Speaker 1: in terms of you know, sybeing, etcetera. UM, And I
Speaker 1: think to your point, it's really interesting now, especially as
Speaker 1: we have the U N Council to see all these
Speaker 1: side talks. So it's not only the trade tensions, but
Speaker 1: also any discussions around the tensions around Iran, Saudi Arabia, Brexit,
Speaker 1: you name it. I think it's all going on, and
Speaker 1: I think that's why we're seeing a bit more volatility
Speaker 1: that we are in the market. Obviously, we had the
Speaker 1: announcement in the UK this morning, we saw the spike
Speaker 1: in sterling. But I think really there are a whole
Speaker 1: range of different issues that are very politically driven that
Speaker 1: are really sort of focusing the market on them at
Speaker 1: the moment. The whole range of issues that could be
Speaker 1: addressed at the UM lace today. Just as far as
Speaker 1: the trade stories concerned, we've had a series of growth
Speaker 1: scares through this cycle. We mentioned the many times fifteen,
Speaker 1: sixteen and our eighteen coming into nine. Did the trade
Speaker 1: talks hold the keys to how long we will be
Speaker 1: going through this growth scare? Or can we come out
Speaker 1: of it because of something cow somewhere else, some kind
Speaker 1: of policy initiative that brings us out of this. Finally,
Speaker 1: how does this play out in your mind? What's your
Speaker 1: base case? Maryland? So, I think that the trade tensions
Speaker 1: are really a core component of the global growth to
Speaker 1: CHETREE going forward. We've seen that in the export data
Speaker 1: coming out of Japan, out of Korea, in Europe, we've
Speaker 1: seen we're seeing the impact that it's having on the
Speaker 1: p M eyes in the uro Zone and elsewhere, and
Speaker 1: I think it really is starting to play a key
Speaker 1: role in global growth. Then a black rock in fixed
Speaker 1: income which spread neros most advantageously for our listeners. If
Speaker 1: there's a permanence to this regime, as James Bullard would
Speaker 1: call it, where's the spread nearrowing opportunity. So at the
Speaker 1: moment in the U S we do like investment grade credit.
Speaker 1: We think in this environment where the third is gradually
Speaker 1: reducing rates, where it continues to support the growth of
Speaker 1: the economy, and then we do continue to like spread product.
Speaker 1: We also like agency nbs, etcetera. I think in the
Speaker 1: Eurozone we do see spreads tightening further in the long
Speaker 1: end of the curve. In Italy and France, we think
Speaker 1: we can see further compression there. But I think also
Speaker 1: so trade isn't the only thing, and we are seeing
Speaker 1: a ratcheting up of I guess a focus on whether
Speaker 1: we could see more fiscal stimulus in Europe, whether we
Speaker 1: can see more fiscal stimulus around the world as well
Speaker 1: as you know, a range of loosening from central banks
Speaker 1: around the world as well, so we could potentially see
Speaker 1: more in Japan, We're seeing more in China, for example.
Speaker 1: In the Eurozone, so it's not just trade, but that
Speaker 1: is one of the key components that is having an
Speaker 1: impact on global growth. I was just quickly taking a
Speaker 1: look at one of your trade and looking for that compression,
Speaker 1: that spread compression in Europe. In Italy right now, the
Speaker 1: spread over Germany on a ten year maturity is a
Speaker 1: hundred and forty one call it a hundred and forty
Speaker 1: two basis points. The tights of the q ERA are
Speaker 1: a t eight basis points, and I just wonder can
Speaker 1: we retest the tights of the q ERA the kind
Speaker 1: of levels we had back in early Is that what
Speaker 1: you're looking for Maryland? Well, so we've already seen a
Speaker 1: huge compression between Italy and Germany. We've really seen that
Speaker 1: come down quite considerably. It's hard to see in the
Speaker 1: nert term them getting back to the tights that that
Speaker 1: you mentioned with between Italy and Germany, because we do
Speaker 1: still see a lot of political risk in Italy still.
Speaker 1: They've moderated, but they haven't gone away. Um. The Eurozone
Speaker 1: as a whole is still you know, struggling, and we've
Speaker 1: seen the very the way weak data coming out of
Speaker 1: Germany and elsewhere as well. So I think the ECB
Speaker 1: is doing everything it can. They've made it very clear
Speaker 1: that we need to see more fiscal stimulus. I think
Speaker 1: really to get back to the tights in between Italy
Speaker 1: and Germany, you to see a lot more in terms
Speaker 1: of up for a formulatively politic politics, etcetera. Thank you,
Speaker 1: it's good to see it. Thank you to come to
Speaker 1: you this morning from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studios in
Speaker 1: New York. We thank Interactive Brokers for their real commitment
Speaker 1: to our conversation and economics finance investment in Brexit, and
Speaker 1: Brexit just keeps going. That's what you want to focus on,
Speaker 1: We're gonna focus on right now. We can do that
Speaker 1: with a gentleman who's really quite informed. He's a Chataw House,
Speaker 1: which is one of the great think tanks of London.
Speaker 1: I've walked by their their austin their fancy offices. They're
Speaker 1: very British and all that. Thomas Rains is in there
Speaker 1: having tea at the appropriate hour and he joins us
Speaker 1: right now. Thomas Rain's good morning. UM. I see just
Speaker 1: one headline come out. I'm not quite sure how current
Speaker 1: it is that Jeremy Corbin at the Labor Conference will
Speaker 1: move up his speech one day. There's an immediacy of
Speaker 1: the next twenty four hours. Do you have a hint
Speaker 1: or a guestimate of what the Prime Minister will do?
Speaker 1: Worried about whether the mats will make it in Manhattan.
Speaker 1: That's a great question. Thanks for having me on. I
Speaker 1: think it's at this point probably Boris Johnson will just
Speaker 1: hold fire. What we know will happen as a result
Speaker 1: of the court judgment is that Parliament will return to
Speaker 1: sitting very shortly. So the order of prorogation to suspend
Speaker 1: Parliament was unlawful, so MPs will go back to business
Speaker 1: in the Commons. But we don't actually know what they're
Speaker 1: going to do with this extra time that they have.
Speaker 1: There are lots of calls for Boris Johnson to resign.
Speaker 1: I suspect he will resist those calls for now, but
Speaker 1: in a way what he would like and what all
Speaker 1: of the parties have said that is a general election,
Speaker 1: and the question is really about how that comes about.
Speaker 1: I mean, maybe journal figure out what to do with
Speaker 1: the tats that seems to be in London. You really
Speaker 1: want to make this about sports, aren't you. Well it
Speaker 1: is a sport. You're bringing the mets for Thomas Raines
Speaker 1: because it's okay that in Brexit it's a sport. It
Speaker 1: goes on and on, and a sport that not many
Speaker 1: people like watching at the moment. Look, Thomas, here's a
Speaker 1: question for you. The Prime Minister is quite clearly lost
Speaker 1: in Parliament, he's lost in court. Does that necessarily mean
Speaker 1: he loses in the court of public opinion. I think
Speaker 1: that's much less clear. So in some ways, and there
Speaker 1: is a theory that this court judgment isn't as bad
Speaker 1: politically for Boris Johnson as it is legally. He has
Speaker 1: tried to present the narrative that he is the one
Speaker 1: sort of true believer in Brexit who was committed to
Speaker 1: making it happen. And against him, you have a Labor Party,
Speaker 1: you have a remained Parliament, and now you have judges.
Speaker 1: So in some ways it might add to the narrative
Speaker 1: that he has to say, look, I'm the only one
Speaker 1: who can deliver this the establishment against me trying to
Speaker 1: block Brexit. Having said that, this is such a clear
Speaker 1: and damning verdict, it wasn't a judgment about Brexit, as
Speaker 1: much as he will be trying to frame it. It
Speaker 1: was a judgment about the power of the executive branch
Speaker 1: to suspend Parliament and this was a powerful assertion of
Speaker 1: the rule of law and of parliamentary sovereignty. I think
Speaker 1: it's quite difficult to spin that, but he will certainly try.
Speaker 1: He wants to try and bring back as many of
Speaker 1: those Brexit Party voters, So people who've gone towards Nigel
Speaker 1: Farage's Brexit Party and the European elections he's had sort
Speaker 1: of risen out of nowhere in the last few months
Speaker 1: and he will try as much as possible to win
Speaker 1: them back. Tom Range, your claim as the tribes you
Speaker 1: talk about the European tribes, define the Farage tribe of
Speaker 1: England and how they and I mean England and how
Speaker 1: they responded this historic moment for the nation. Well, what's
Speaker 1: what's interesting about this as a sort of subtext to it,
Speaker 1: which is that the chief sort of politic call adviser
Speaker 1: to Boris Johnson is Dominic Cummings. Now he ran the
Speaker 1: main Leave campaign, but he used to have terrible fights
Speaker 1: during the referendum campaign with Nigel Forage and his colleagues
Speaker 1: who ran a slightly different campaign which was much more
Speaker 1: focused on on immigration and other issues. And there's a
Speaker 1: real political split there and they are coming out with
Speaker 1: the knives for Dominic Cummings. Now they're called on Twitter
Speaker 1: from actually all across both the Brexit Party in the
Speaker 1: Conservative Party for Cummings to resign. They hold him responsible
Speaker 1: for this proregration strategy. So there is a sort of
Speaker 1: political split behind the scenes between those two. I think
Speaker 1: Brexit Party voters, many of whom will probably not be
Speaker 1: put off by by Johnson's condemnation by the Court. Um
Speaker 1: you know, there is a hard core of British public
Speaker 1: opinion which is disproportionately English. As you mentioned, it tends
Speaker 1: to be older voters, It tends to be people outside
Speaker 1: of the big cities who are who feel that Brexit
Speaker 1: is the most important political issue you that they face.
Speaker 1: They believe that Parliament and others are trying to block it,
Speaker 1: and I doubt that they will be too concerned in
Speaker 1: terms of their support for Brexit because of the judgment
Speaker 1: of the Court and Thomas. This is embarrassing for the
Speaker 1: Prime Minister. I imagine the front pages won't be favorable
Speaker 1: to the Prime Minister tomorrow, but I wonder if the
Speaker 1: Prime Minister ultimately ends up with what he wants. Jeremy
Speaker 1: Corbin will address his party and the membership as soon
Speaker 1: as today. When he does that, Thomas, doesn't it make
Speaker 1: it harder for him to avoid the calls for a
Speaker 1: general election. Now Parliament will come back tomorrow and I
Speaker 1: have no doubt the Prime Minister will present them with
Speaker 1: the same question, if you want me out, if you
Speaker 1: think I should resign, let's have an election. How is
Speaker 1: do they avoid that for the next six weeks with
Speaker 1: significant difficulty? I think one way to do it is
Speaker 1: that you could have a vote of no confidence in
Speaker 1: the Prime Minister and you try to install a temporary government.
Speaker 1: The real challenge here is about the expension of the
Speaker 1: Article fifty negotiations. We have this deadline of October thirty
Speaker 1: one when the UK is too to lead the European Union.
Speaker 1: Parliament is determined that that date doesn't pass in the
Speaker 1: UK leaves with no deal. So you have this clear
Speaker 1: impasse and that and basically the Labor Party and the
Speaker 1: other opposition parties don't trust Boris Dumpson not to kind
Speaker 1: of move the UK over that clific. So the real
Speaker 1: question is can they find another way around that they
Speaker 1: feel that they can guarantee the UK won't leave with
Speaker 1: without a deal. One way to do that would be
Speaker 1: to have a temporary leader in government. The real uh
Speaker 1: so you had a vote of noll the government of
Speaker 1: National Unity. But the only way I think that could
Speaker 1: happen is if Conservative members of Parliament who have had
Speaker 1: lost the whips so they've basically been expelled from their
Speaker 1: party vote for that. And it's not clear that they
Speaker 1: will now. Tam Marines. This is brilliant. It's so confusing.
Speaker 1: You and I have to have a beverage of rejoice
Speaker 1: on the second floor of rules if we're going to
Speaker 1: get through this. Forget about the complexity. Doesn't the Prime
Speaker 1: minister college general election this morning in Manhattan, fly home
Speaker 1: and call their bluff and just have an election that
Speaker 1: that well is that it's not that the thing is
Speaker 1: with the change that we had under the under the
Speaker 1: previous Camera government. It's not in the gift of the
Speaker 1: Prime minister to simply call an election. He needs parliament support.
Speaker 1: He is a very weak prime minister in Parliament. He
Speaker 1: has no majority whatsoever, and so he is not really
Speaker 1: so basically they will they could call his bluff and say, well, no,
Speaker 1: we'll wait until after the thirty post of October an election. Then,
Speaker 1: but then we still have this challenge of how do
Speaker 1: you get Boris Johnson who asked for the extension that
Speaker 1: we need, and then we might have another legal fight,
Speaker 1: jan say, frustrated, like an American son. We have a
Speaker 1: six term Parliament Act, which ultimately means you need a
Speaker 1: certain amount of empres to vote for an election, and
Speaker 1: right now the Prime Minister doesn't have enough of those
Speaker 1: MPs to get that election through unless the opposition start
Speaker 1: to come with him. Oh yeah, the whole two years,
Speaker 1: a whole two years every four years, dawning up to
Speaker 1: the next one time, as we won't go there. If
Speaker 1: we had an election today, what would that result look like?
Speaker 1: If the polls are any guide at the moment, Thomas Um,
Speaker 1: I hate to keep answering questions with with don't really know,
Speaker 1: but that nobody really knows. So at the moment, the
Speaker 1: Conservative Party are doing relatively well in the polls. Labor
Speaker 1: are doing relatively poorly. The Conservatives sort of mid thirties,
Speaker 1: Labor on mid twenties. A Liberal Democrats, which is the
Speaker 1: party most opposed to Brexit, are hot on labors here
Speaker 1: and just behind them is the Brexit Party. So we
Speaker 1: have four parties in play in a system which is
Speaker 1: used to having sort of two or two and a
Speaker 1: half parties in play. So that makes all of the
Speaker 1: kind of modeling that people normally use to predict elections
Speaker 1: very difficult to use in this circumstance. I think you
Speaker 1: could have a situation where the Conservatives end up as
Speaker 1: the largest party in the House of Commons but without
Speaker 1: a majority, and you have a labor minority government which
Speaker 1: is supported by the Liberal Democrats and the SMP, and
Speaker 1: that will lead it to and with certainly a second
Speaker 1: referendum on Brexit. Tom Rines, thank you so much for
Speaker 1: the update Confusion Ring. We'll go through the morning here
Speaker 1: and of course Prime Minister Johnson schedule to speak this
Speaker 1: evening afternoon late late as well, and then he will
Speaker 1: fly back to the United Kingdom. Right now greeting him
Speaker 1: in the United Kingdom will be the mathematician from Cambridge
Speaker 1: Whale joins us. She is with black Rock and it
Speaker 1: really works in the emerging market area and the strategy
Speaker 1: forward um to give it a Matthew tilt Wale if
Speaker 1: we could, we love having you on. Is the is
Speaker 1: e M such a value in equity and in bonds
Speaker 1: that you have to own some or do you have
Speaker 1: to own a lot? I think the start you have
Speaker 1: to own some. If you think about the percentage of
Speaker 1: emerging markets as part of the overall global benchmark for
Speaker 1: aquities is eaching towards under For fixed income, it's growing
Speaker 1: as well, and that has been accelerated by the fact
Speaker 1: that China China unctual assets across aquitism bonds are increasingly
Speaker 1: getting included as well. So this year with UH Barclay's
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Inclusion Global at JP Morgan Benchmark Inclusion MSCI
Speaker 1: inclusion on the aquity side, we're talking about over two
Speaker 1: hundred billion dollar worth of money in motion just also
Speaker 1: the back of this benchmark inclusion events along for China
Speaker 1: and more broadly, with the emerging market coming of age
Speaker 1: and markets increasingly growing, the direction of o oh yes
Speaker 1: is its own sound and potentially more so, Wait, just
Speaker 1: give us a sense of what your global allocation is
Speaker 1: right now and what changes you may have made recently
Speaker 1: to that. Absolutely so. We have actually recently upgraded European
Speaker 1: equities from underweight to neutral and brought down our emerging
Speaker 1: market equity exposure UH from overweight to neutral as well.
Speaker 1: On a tactical basis, and I tell you why. Specifically
Speaker 1: behind our European equity upgrade, that has been very much
Speaker 1: of the back of our expectation for the easy b
Speaker 1: to surprise on the upside versus UH consensus expectation in
Speaker 1: terms of the stimulus package and how far they would go.
Speaker 1: And we have seen part of that coming through, and
Speaker 1: we think that there is more to come with the
Speaker 1: incoming president Christine regards carrying over the baton as well.
Speaker 1: UM specifically with regards to our emerging market equity bangoring
Speaker 1: from overweight to a new tool that had to do
Speaker 1: back then with the mood music in terms of trades
Speaker 1: tension between the US and China deteriorating, but now that
Speaker 1: is incrementally getting better. We're reviewing that right now as well.
Speaker 1: And so really as relates to the US market, are
Speaker 1: you expecting the feder reserve to be going to a
Speaker 1: consistent easing here or maybe just kind of wanted done here? Well,
Speaker 1: m looking at the rest of the year, another rate
Speaker 1: card is very much on the table and upcoming fat
Speaker 1: meetings our life in that In that sense, Um, we
Speaker 1: very much take comfort from the fact that UH Chairman
Speaker 1: pause that at the press conference when needed, they stand
Speaker 1: by ready too, ready to act. And the fact that
Speaker 1: you know what, it's okay to have an economy that
Speaker 1: not propped up by central bank easy. If it can
Speaker 1: go ahead by itself, that's even better. What is the
Speaker 1: tail risk right now? We have the advantage of you
Speaker 1: as a strategist and manager and emerging markets for black Rock,
Speaker 1: but define for us the sum of the tail risk
Speaker 1: right now within our global financial system. UM. I think
Speaker 1: as it relates to emerging markets, the incremental news flow
Speaker 1: with regards to trade very much weight and sentiment, which
Speaker 1: in turn drives as all location trend which in turn
Speaker 1: also have been impacting UH price action as well. So yes,
Speaker 1: incrementally in the short term, they seem to be getting
Speaker 1: better as we're heading to the October meeting. But the
Speaker 1: strategic confrontation between the two superpowers in the world data
Speaker 1: going away, especially as it relates to technology. So we
Speaker 1: have to bear that in mind very much as we
Speaker 1: think about kind of the overall topdown on the location
Speaker 1: and and beyond that growth slowdown, growth slowdown, and and
Speaker 1: and and and spilling over for manufacturing into service part
Speaker 1: of the economy that we pay a lot of attention
Speaker 1: to not our base case recession, but it's increasing created
Speaker 1: into our clients radar includ the fear, so we have
Speaker 1: to leave it there. Waily, thank you so much. It
Speaker 1: is with black Rock in London. Thanks for listening to
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You can
Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio