WEBVTT - MLB BETTING UPDATE with Sean Zerillo 0:00:00.920 --> 0:00:04.320 Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard rods Bet. We 0:00:04.360 --> 0:00:08.000 are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the 0:00:08.039 --> 0:00:10.799 show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wives 0:00:10.840 --> 0:00:11.959 guys pay attention. 0:00:12.080 --> 0:00:13.440 I am Chad Milman. 0:00:13.520 --> 0:00:17.119 I am joined as always, but my co host, my bff, 0:00:17.160 --> 0:00:26.960 my companion, my compatre professional better Simon Hunter et O Simon, Chad. 0:00:26.960 --> 0:00:30.360 We are truly in the dog days of summer, my friend. 0:00:30.520 --> 0:00:34.120 We got lists coming out, we got Hormone Derby's, we 0:00:34.240 --> 0:00:37.839 got a little World Cup left, and thank god, two 0:00:37.920 --> 0:00:40.760 weeks from now we get guys back in camp with 0:00:40.840 --> 0:00:44.640 actual football. But until then, I'm enjoying these last few days. 0:00:44.800 --> 0:00:47.080 I did notice the other day ESPN put out its 0:00:47.080 --> 0:00:50.600 top ten quarterbacks list, and so I know, I looked 0:00:50.640 --> 0:00:53.760 at it and I thought to myself, I don't want 0:00:53.800 --> 0:00:56.400 to digest it. I want to make my own lists 0:00:56.440 --> 0:01:00.800 so I can surprise Simon. What did you think. 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:03.120 Of the home run Derby? 0:01:04.480 --> 0:01:05.039 I loved it. 0:01:06.040 --> 0:01:09.800 I did end up going, but didn't go in that 0:01:09.840 --> 0:01:11.520 We have like a thing called State Side right by 0:01:11.560 --> 0:01:13.600 the stadium, because I was just I thought, all right, 0:01:13.640 --> 0:01:15.640 I'll be able to get a discount because no joke, 0:01:15.720 --> 0:01:18.840 I have a ticket from the last time they were here. 0:01:18.959 --> 0:01:19.760 It was at the Vet. 0:01:20.240 --> 0:01:23.800 I saw almost pousitive, was like Barry Bonds Mark Maguire 0:01:23.959 --> 0:01:26.560 in that home run Derby. It was five bucks and 0:01:26.600 --> 0:01:29.560 we were in the lower bowl. Jesus yeah, and I 0:01:29.640 --> 0:01:32.720 was looking for just nosebleeders. The cheapest I could fine 0:01:32.760 --> 0:01:33.360 was nine hundred. 0:01:33.440 --> 0:01:34.959 I was like, I'll just I'll just wait, are you 0:01:35.040 --> 0:01:35.560 kidding me? 0:01:36.000 --> 0:01:39.040 Not kidding? Four hundred level? Chad, four hundred level. They 0:01:39.040 --> 0:01:41.280 were looking for nine hundred, So I was like, all right, 0:01:41.280 --> 0:01:43.720 I'll just I'll watch the State side. And it was electric. 0:01:43.760 --> 0:01:44.640 I mean, I don't know about you. 0:01:44.680 --> 0:01:47.440 I thought it was gonna be a shoreber so uh yeah, 0:01:47.560 --> 0:01:48.640 definitely was fired up. 0:01:48.680 --> 0:01:53.120 And it's it's again in Philadelphia's unique place. It's all 0:01:53.160 --> 0:01:56.160 about where they put these locations. But the fact that 0:01:56.160 --> 0:01:58.560 the fans were so into it, even if the setup 0:01:58.600 --> 0:02:01.000 was stupid by Netflix, because I know TV honestly, wasn't 0:02:01.000 --> 0:02:02.200 that enjoyable of experience for me. 0:02:02.200 --> 0:02:02.919 I don't know by other. 0:02:02.800 --> 0:02:06.440 People Netflix wise, But overall the atmosphere, I thought it 0:02:06.440 --> 0:02:09.280 was so electric. I really feel like I came through 0:02:09.320 --> 0:02:09.680 on TV. 0:02:09.840 --> 0:02:11.120 So it was fun. 0:02:11.200 --> 0:02:13.200 I really enjoyed that home run and I don't know 0:02:13.240 --> 0:02:16.679 if it's the swings, you know, whatever it was, but yeah, 0:02:16.760 --> 0:02:18.600 usually I don't I don't really get that far up 0:02:18.639 --> 0:02:19.480 for it, but I feel like I had to go 0:02:19.520 --> 0:02:21.000 because it was in my city and end up being 0:02:21.280 --> 0:02:22.399 a pretty cool experience. 0:02:23.120 --> 0:02:25.799 Well look, I think that the best thing about it 0:02:26.720 --> 0:02:30.680 are the Philly fans and how excited they got for 0:02:30.760 --> 0:02:34.480 Schwarber and that Schwarber got to the final round, and 0:02:34.560 --> 0:02:36.800 you know the fact that it took just a monstrous 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:39.040 blast for Schwarber to lose. 0:02:40.520 --> 0:02:42.360 I loved the atmosphere for it. 0:02:42.480 --> 0:02:46.360 I could like, I don't care that much about the 0:02:46.440 --> 0:02:47.320 home run derby. 0:02:47.800 --> 0:02:49.320 I have found that. 0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:57.960 More and more my impartial fandom is about atmosphere. Like 0:02:58.040 --> 0:03:03.640 I'm in the World Cup. I'm rooting for England because 0:03:03.880 --> 0:03:08.720 I know that the clips on social media if England 0:03:08.720 --> 0:03:11.840 wins or loses in the finals are going to be 0:03:12.000 --> 0:03:16.079 at such peak ends of the spectrum, meaning it will 0:03:16.120 --> 0:03:23.800 be the absolute worst devastation or the high of highs 0:03:24.280 --> 0:03:28.960 because of England's fraught relationship and tortured relationship with international soccer. 0:03:30.080 --> 0:03:30.960 That's what I'm rooting for. 0:03:30.960 --> 0:03:35.040 And so I'm rooting for great, genuine emotional fan moments 0:03:35.480 --> 0:03:37.240 more than I'm rooting for something on the field. 0:03:38.200 --> 0:03:39.240 Yeah, I don't want to. I don't want to. 0:03:39.320 --> 0:03:41.160 I don't want to expose myself too much because all 0:03:41.160 --> 0:03:43.440 the pandemic come my way. But Chad knows I am 0:03:43.640 --> 0:03:46.920 losing my mind right about England. I know you've been 0:03:46.920 --> 0:03:48.680 e loving to say a wonderwall after every game. 0:03:48.960 --> 0:03:51.440 Yes, oh my god, it's That's what I'm talking about, though, 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:54.520 like or when they're singing Hey Jude, I don't know. 0:03:55.440 --> 0:03:57.880 To me. This is a magical thing for social media 0:03:58.800 --> 0:04:03.040 is it's power to share the joy of fandom, and 0:04:03.080 --> 0:04:04.640 I think it does it as well as it does 0:04:04.680 --> 0:04:06.840 anything else. And it's honestly, it's why I got into 0:04:06.840 --> 0:04:11.280 the Phillies, like the Phillies fans rooting for Trey Turner 0:04:11.920 --> 0:04:14.640 when he was struggling after his first year free agency 0:04:15.440 --> 0:04:20.480 is the exemplar of how social media can inspire fandom, 0:04:20.880 --> 0:04:23.200 and it shares the traditions and what it means to 0:04:23.240 --> 0:04:26.640 be a fan of these teams globally, and I think 0:04:26.680 --> 0:04:28.680 it inspires more people to be interested in be fans, 0:04:28.680 --> 0:04:32.200 and I think that's amazing. I'm being totally I'm totally 0:04:33.320 --> 0:04:36.800 like being sentimental. I am not being typical sort of 0:04:37.720 --> 0:04:41.279 sarcastic here, like I just think it's it's awesome, So 0:04:41.839 --> 0:04:44.839 I want I want that fandom reaction the. 0:04:45.279 --> 0:04:47.920 COVID part, right memory, Just in COVID, how we just 0:04:48.080 --> 0:04:50.080 we always knew how much we cared about fans, and 0:04:50.080 --> 0:04:52.520 then being there, yes, lintil Code, you were just like, 0:04:52.600 --> 0:04:55.160 oh my god. It It literally makes up I guess 0:04:55.200 --> 0:04:57.800 sixty percent same percent of the experience. I don't know 0:04:57.839 --> 0:04:59.760 how to explain it, but it really does that connection 0:05:00.600 --> 0:05:03.960 watching games with other people, and uh yeah for the 0:05:04.000 --> 0:05:06.960 World Cup. I mean, maybe I'll save it for our 0:05:06.960 --> 0:05:09.720 next show because it's there's just so much chad that 0:05:09.880 --> 0:05:14.000 Americans wouln't understand. Between England and Argentina. I don't really 0:05:14.000 --> 0:05:16.480 know who America's rival would be. I guess in sports, 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:18.279 I guess Canada. We kind of hate them because of 0:05:18.279 --> 0:05:22.760 hockey and other things like that. But Russia, yeah, Russia 0:05:22.839 --> 0:05:25.839 right right, right, But this this is like next level, 0:05:25.960 --> 0:05:29.720 Like you know, these people have killed each other over. 0:05:29.960 --> 0:05:31.960 An island if you want to look into all that. 0:05:32.040 --> 0:05:36.760 So yeah, it's Falklands. Yeah, yeah, So. 0:05:36.839 --> 0:05:39.000 I'm old enough to remember the Falkland Island. 0:05:39.040 --> 0:05:41.920 You really, Yeah, I don't know how many Americans really 0:05:41.960 --> 0:05:44.640 remember that, but it was It's something I know they 0:05:44.800 --> 0:05:46.840 still hold pretty close to their chest. 0:05:46.920 --> 0:05:49.479 And yeah, I Chad knows. 0:05:49.520 --> 0:05:52.080 I am someone that I won't make my feelings too 0:05:52.080 --> 0:05:54.000 hard on the Germans here, but a lot of Germans 0:05:54.000 --> 0:05:55.880 after World War Two went Argentina and that's why I 0:05:55.880 --> 0:06:00.400 as an Englandman, we forever kind of hate Argentine in 0:06:00.480 --> 0:06:04.720 many ways as well. So the dream scenario for this 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:06.400 World Cup, but we all know it's a little fixed 0:06:06.400 --> 0:06:10.800 in so many ways. England, Argentina, Spain, France couldn't ask 0:06:10.880 --> 0:06:13.440 for much more than that, Chad. So between that and 0:06:13.480 --> 0:06:15.360 Homer Derby, like you're saying, it's been a great, great 0:06:15.480 --> 0:06:17.599 fan experience, it feels like these last couple of. 0:06:17.600 --> 0:06:19.000 Weeks we are listen. 0:06:19.040 --> 0:06:21.599 You know, I'm a huge Tottenham Spurs fan, and so 0:06:21.800 --> 0:06:25.080 because of that, and because of Harry Kane's legacy with Tottenham, 0:06:25.680 --> 0:06:28.120 I am all in on England. That in my Anglo 0:06:28.160 --> 0:06:30.599 file nature and the fact that my wife and I 0:06:30.680 --> 0:06:32.839 met in London when we were students, I just have 0:06:32.880 --> 0:06:35.640 a lot of affinity for English culture. So we're all 0:06:35.680 --> 0:06:40.760 in on England. We're gonna hopefully be singing Wonderwall after 0:06:40.800 --> 0:06:45.400 the finals on Sunday and certainly after this next match 0:06:45.400 --> 0:06:49.120 against Argentina. But we were just talking about the home 0:06:49.160 --> 0:06:52.880 runer every summer. Way back in March, we dove into 0:06:53.279 --> 0:06:56.840 Major League Baseball betting the Major League Baseball season from 0:06:56.839 --> 0:07:00.560 a betting perspective with our old pal Seans from the 0:07:00.560 --> 0:07:05.200 Action Network, one of the sharpest, most obsessive baseball betting 0:07:05.480 --> 0:07:12.080 minds anywhere, co host of the Wonderful Payoff Pitch podcast. 0:07:12.120 --> 0:07:16.200 He looks Simon. He looks like an angel for those 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:18.800 watching on YouTube. It's only because he's sitting in his 0:07:18.840 --> 0:07:21.360 backyard because the construction in his house was so loud 0:07:21.760 --> 0:07:28.320 we sent him into the back yard. Shonzillo, Welcome back, buddy. 0:07:28.400 --> 0:07:31.520 You listen, we're going to get to this in the show. 0:07:32.840 --> 0:07:35.840 You gave out some bets that are trending towards winners, 0:07:36.600 --> 0:07:38.800 so I'm thrilled for you. And I don't don't get 0:07:38.800 --> 0:07:40.400 into him yet because we're going to talk about him 0:07:40.440 --> 0:07:40.880 on the show. 0:07:42.080 --> 0:07:44.240 But well done, Shonzarella. 0:07:45.240 --> 0:07:45.440 Yeah. 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:47.680 I enjoyed the Hermer on Derby last night. Really liked 0:07:47.680 --> 0:07:48.280 the new format. 0:07:48.320 --> 0:07:50.240 I think they got to stick with that format, Maybe 0:07:50.240 --> 0:07:53.000 get rid of the magenta colored baseballs because that seemed 0:07:53.000 --> 0:07:55.080 to be a little bit difficult for the hitters to 0:07:55.120 --> 0:07:58.000 pick up on, potentially considering nobody homewred on them until 0:07:58.040 --> 0:08:01.000 the final round and then for Jordan Walker if you've 0:08:01.040 --> 0:08:04.720 been able to catch online. So all the extra baseballs, 0:08:04.760 --> 0:08:06.960 all the bonus base balls were supposed to be magenta. 0:08:08.000 --> 0:08:09.760 The home run that Jordan Walker hit to end the 0:08:09.840 --> 0:08:10.800 night was white. 0:08:11.320 --> 0:08:13.840 So there's a bit of controversy surrounding the fact that 0:08:13.920 --> 0:08:16.679 Jordan Walker was not being fed the correct baseballs during 0:08:16.680 --> 0:08:19.920 his little run in the bonus round. But completely agree, 0:08:20.000 --> 0:08:22.800 love the atmosphere, thought the Philly fans were electric. Them 0:08:22.840 --> 0:08:26.880 booing Contreras and Walker throughout their final rounds against Shober 0:08:27.080 --> 0:08:30.840 was absolutely electrifying. Love the format, just absolutely hated the 0:08:30.960 --> 0:08:33.760 Netflix broadcast seem to have no feel for the rules, 0:08:34.000 --> 0:08:35.600 seem to have no feel for the moment. There was 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:38.920 no leaderboard on the screen telling you how anybody was 0:08:38.920 --> 0:08:41.520 Doing's definitely a lot of kinks to work out on 0:08:41.559 --> 0:08:45.120 the Netflix front. The boxing ring at second base kind 0:08:45.120 --> 0:08:48.400 of matching their cringe energy from the Giants Yankees opening 0:08:48.480 --> 0:08:50.560 day when they had like the trolley carts in the 0:08:50.559 --> 0:08:52.959 subway car out and left and right field. So I 0:08:52.960 --> 0:08:54.760 think Netflix doing a little bit too much on the 0:08:54.760 --> 0:08:56.520 movie production end. 0:08:56.559 --> 0:08:57.640 Just leave the game as is. 0:08:57.960 --> 0:08:59.400 You don't need to do too much, but give us 0:08:59.400 --> 0:09:02.280 the information that actually helps make the inf event a 0:09:02.320 --> 0:09:04.000 little bit more informative as you're watching it. 0:09:04.679 --> 0:09:07.440 Not a lot of the lovers of the Netflix broadcasts 0:09:07.480 --> 0:09:10.440 so far in baseball for Giants, Yankees or for home 0:09:10.520 --> 0:09:13.040 run Derby, So look, they've they got to figure that 0:09:13.080 --> 0:09:16.600 one out. But listen, we're not talking about broadcasts here. 0:09:16.720 --> 0:09:19.520 We're talking about betting. It is the MLB All Star 0:09:19.559 --> 0:09:23.880 Game tonight, annual right of passage, the unofficial midway point 0:09:23.880 --> 0:09:25.600 of a very long baseball season. 0:09:26.600 --> 0:09:29.040 Sean, I'm so glad you're here. 0:09:30.280 --> 0:09:34.839 Let's talk about the actual baseballs, because in the spring 0:09:35.400 --> 0:09:40.200 you told us about differences and variations that could be 0:09:40.280 --> 0:09:44.319 possible in the balls. You're always on top of the balls. 0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:49.600 Major League Baseball uses over the course of the season 0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:51.720 different balls. They change the balls. 0:09:52.960 --> 0:09:53.560 Catch us up. 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:56.240 Where is where does the balls stand right now? 0:09:56.720 --> 0:09:58.480 I'm not going to go around telling people that I'm 0:09:58.480 --> 0:10:00.679 always on top of the balls. We'll find a different 0:10:00.720 --> 0:10:03.719 way to phrase that, But it does seem like we've 0:10:03.760 --> 0:10:07.360 had a change to the baseballs in twenty twenty six, 0:10:07.400 --> 0:10:10.120 and that now makes five times I believe in the 0:10:10.120 --> 0:10:12.800 past seven years where we have evidence, we have people 0:10:13.160 --> 0:10:16.520 slicing into the baseballs physically proving that they're different. Now, 0:10:16.559 --> 0:10:20.160 Major League Baseball came out a few weeks ago after 0:10:20.760 --> 0:10:24.160 I started putting out articles investigating it further. You know, 0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:26.840 sarahs was kind of the one who initially drove the 0:10:26.880 --> 0:10:28.720 conversation on it, and then I took it a step 0:10:28.760 --> 0:10:31.840 further in terms of my research. But essentially, the balls 0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:34.640 are flying further. You can only explain away about a 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:38.280 third to a half of the further carry due to weather. 0:10:38.960 --> 0:10:43.520 The biggest difference and the biggest, most obvious like change 0:10:43.960 --> 0:10:47.240 that immediately stands out in dome stadiums, so you can 0:10:47.280 --> 0:10:49.760 filter out most of the weather impact. At dome stadiums. 0:10:50.000 --> 0:10:52.960 There is still some of a weather impact as temperatures increase, 0:10:53.000 --> 0:10:57.160 the humidity increases, et cetera. But in the past five 0:10:57.280 --> 0:11:02.400 years or so, as the way warms up in dome stadiums, 0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:05.000 you only see an increase in ball flight by about 0:11:05.040 --> 0:11:07.520 a foot and a half. The maximum we've seen in 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:10.880 any year was three feet. This year it's jumped nine feet, 0:11:11.720 --> 0:11:14.839 and it happened in the middle of the season, at 0:11:14.880 --> 0:11:19.760 about the end of May, right around Memorial Day. The 0:11:19.760 --> 0:11:23.680 ball essentially overnight started flying nine feet further. And you 0:11:23.720 --> 0:11:26.760 can't tell me that the weather warmed up enough to 0:11:27.000 --> 0:11:29.400 have caused a nine foot increase. That would be like 0:11:29.480 --> 0:11:33.120 a thirty degree temperature increase. About fifteen temperatures is equivalent 0:11:33.200 --> 0:11:35.840 to four feet. But what you can track, and I 0:11:35.880 --> 0:11:39.240 talked about this in the preseason, is the drag coefficient data, 0:11:39.280 --> 0:11:45.080 which Major League Baseball makes readily available on baseballsavant dot com. Essentially, 0:11:45.160 --> 0:11:48.120 the range of outcomes of drag this year, and each 0:11:48.160 --> 0:11:50.200 point of drag is worth four feet of ball flight. 0:11:50.920 --> 0:11:53.280 The range of drag this year has fluctuated by as 0:11:53.320 --> 0:11:56.320 many as four points, four tenths of a point, what 0:11:56.480 --> 0:12:00.280 have you. So essentially that's the difference between sixteen feet 0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:03.960 plus or minus from one baseball to the next, and 0:12:04.320 --> 0:12:09.240 it stabilized essentially now in July, below the lowest point 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:13.280 it hit last year. So the baseballs are obviously different. 0:12:13.320 --> 0:12:16.040 Major Leagues Baseball's excuse for this, or their way of 0:12:16.080 --> 0:12:19.640 explaining this away was to say that the oils from 0:12:19.720 --> 0:12:23.160 inside of the baseball had leaked out, had caused some 0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:25.640 sort of yellow staining on the outside of the ball. 0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:28.960 But essentially they're saying that, yes, there's an issue. We 0:12:29.120 --> 0:12:33.800 tested these balls independently. We didn't find anything specific wrong 0:12:33.880 --> 0:12:38.040 with them, and therefore we consider them to be viable 0:12:38.120 --> 0:12:40.840 for play. But what we are seeing is on the field, 0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:44.120 catchers are tossing out way more balls. You know that 0:12:44.120 --> 0:12:46.080 they're being given by the umpire. They're throwing them out 0:12:46.120 --> 0:12:48.120 of play because they don't think the quality is up 0:12:48.120 --> 0:12:51.520 to standards. We know that MLB bought Rawlings in twenty 0:12:51.600 --> 0:12:54.960 nineteen to gain better control over the process of manufacturing 0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:57.679 the balls. Clearly, there's still going to be some variants 0:12:57.720 --> 0:12:59.800 from one ball to the next because they're hands sewn, 0:13:00.240 --> 0:13:03.520 but there's never been this much variance within one particular year. 0:13:03.640 --> 0:13:07.840 So the main theories are here. Baseball started the year 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:10.880 with the baseballs from last year. As the season has 0:13:10.920 --> 0:13:13.480 gone on, they started mixing in more baseballs that were 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:16.360 meant for this season, and we've seen drag decrease as 0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:18.920 a result, and now kind of settle back in a 0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:21.280 neutral point because we're using all the baseballs that were 0:13:21.280 --> 0:13:24.320 meant for twenty twenty six. But the other main takeaway 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:28.000 from MLB's statement is the fact that, hey, we realize 0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:30.920 this was a problem. We alerted all these teams in February. 0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:33.800 They didn't say whether they alerted sportsbooks in February. They 0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:36.600 didn't notify the public in February. They just started talking 0:13:36.640 --> 0:13:40.520 about it in June. But the other opshot is they 0:13:40.559 --> 0:13:43.480 said that they're going to be cycling in another new 0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:45.960 match of baseballs by the end of this year, if 0:13:46.000 --> 0:13:48.240 not early next year. So we already have a built 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:51.040 in excuse when MLB does change the baseballs and wants 0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:53.400 to mess with the baseballs in the postseason, which they've 0:13:53.440 --> 0:13:55.920 been caught doing in the past, they've already built an 0:13:55.960 --> 0:13:58.880 excuse that they're going to be changing the baseballs again 0:13:59.320 --> 0:14:01.640 in September. So I don't know how those baseballs are 0:14:01.640 --> 0:14:04.360 going to play. Presumably they will be less bouncy than 0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:06.840 the ones that we're currently seeing in play. But the 0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:10.520 upshot is the balls are traveling about another five feet 0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:12.880 further than you would expect just based upon the weather 0:14:13.000 --> 0:14:15.320 increases as you would go into the season, and as 0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:17.560 a result, the home run rate and run scoring has 0:14:17.559 --> 0:14:19.760 been at its highest level since twenty nineteen. 0:14:20.360 --> 0:14:23.880 Simon, do you know what player who had been slumping 0:14:24.040 --> 0:14:29.320 terribly went on a Ruthiean tear around the same time. 0:14:29.920 --> 0:14:33.280 The baseballs seem to be flying out of ballparks at 0:14:33.280 --> 0:14:34.240 a prodigious rate. 0:14:35.760 --> 0:14:36.360 I have no idea. 0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:42.440 What is it, Phillies, Pete Crow, Armstrong, Sean, how much 0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:48.840 do you think PCA's explosion had to do with those balls? 0:14:48.880 --> 0:14:52.400 And if you've seen a change since sort of the 0:14:52.400 --> 0:14:54.920 balls have started to drift back a little bit. 0:14:55.880 --> 0:14:58.680 Yeah, I don't think it's necessarily for PCA specifically, and 0:14:58.680 --> 0:15:00.560 some of the Cubs players specifically. You know you've seen 0:15:00.600 --> 0:15:03.880 Danzeby Swanson go on that crazy run of homers and ribbies. 0:15:04.120 --> 0:15:06.520 They played a lot of games at Wrigley recently with 0:15:06.640 --> 0:15:08.960 totals of twelve and a half thirteen and a half, 0:15:09.160 --> 0:15:11.800 where the wind was blowing out aggressively, the temperatures were 0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:14.080 in the ninety degrees. I would say in July the 0:15:14.120 --> 0:15:16.880 weather's actually been more temperate throughout the country than it 0:15:16.960 --> 0:15:19.160 was in June. I never expected to become a meteorologist, 0:15:19.240 --> 0:15:22.200 or at least an amateur meteorologist in terms of doing 0:15:22.240 --> 0:15:24.560 my job handicapping baseball, but I have to pay attention 0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:27.360 to the temperatures and the weather everywhere on a daily basis. 0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:29.280 I think July has been a little bit more temperate 0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:31.600 than June was, but I do think the Cubs at 0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:34.000 home have had a lot of really good offensive weather. 0:15:34.320 --> 0:15:35.160 That is how PCA. 0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:37.560 I also think PCA is just the very streaky player 0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:40.080 who's going to go through a lot of big hot 0:15:40.080 --> 0:15:43.000 streaks and cold streaks throughout his career just because of 0:15:43.040 --> 0:15:46.800 the swing decisions he makes, the lack of end zone 0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:49.360 contact that he can have at times. He has crazy power, 0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:52.600 crazy speed, crazy athleticism, but the bat on ball skills 0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:54.000 are going to fluctuate a little bit, and I think 0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:57.400 that could lead to streakiness. But overall, you know, you 0:15:57.480 --> 0:16:01.640 are seeing home run per fly ball increase, home run 0:16:01.720 --> 0:16:04.880 rates increase, and the way that I can say, hey, 0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:08.720 this isn't validated by the bounce. I shouldn't have said 0:16:08.720 --> 0:16:11.560 the bounciness of the ball, because that's not actually what's happening. 0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:14.520 That was an incorrect phrase that I just used. It's 0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:16.800 not that the balls are bouncy specifically, It's not that 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:18.440 the balls are bouncy. If they want to make the 0:16:18.480 --> 0:16:23.200 balls bounce here, they would increase the core of the baseball, 0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:26.200 which is like essentially the middle of the baseball, like 0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:29.400 the core of the earth, but it's spelled cor That's 0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:31.960 how bouncy the ball is off of the bat. And 0:16:32.000 --> 0:16:33.760 what that would do if they wanted to make the 0:16:33.760 --> 0:16:36.640 balls jumpier, you would see it show up an exit 0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:39.320 velocity figures. The balls would be coming off of the 0:16:39.360 --> 0:16:42.080 bat hotter, which in turn would make them fly further. 0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:44.840 That's not what's happening here. What's happening is the balls 0:16:44.840 --> 0:16:47.280 are being hit just as hard, if not less hard 0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:49.800 than they were in June as compared to May and April, 0:16:50.160 --> 0:16:52.840 but they're flying further in the air. The resistance on 0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:55.240 them as they're carrying in the air is not there 0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:58.360 as much. And I've pulled several examples where balls were 0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:03.160 hit same batted ball, project exit velocity, distance path on 0:17:03.240 --> 0:17:06.359 the field, same weather in those games, and some balls 0:17:06.359 --> 0:17:09.280 from April May in the same temperatures as they were 0:17:09.320 --> 0:17:12.520 in June, we're flying forty feet further, forty five feet 0:17:12.560 --> 0:17:15.360 further in June. And you know, there is some things 0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:18.520 that you have to quantify for like backspin versus front spin. 0:17:19.840 --> 0:17:22.720 There's things that you don't necessarily show up immediately in 0:17:22.760 --> 0:17:25.880 the stackass data that could slightly affect that, but it's 0:17:25.920 --> 0:17:29.240 been too dramatic in terms of the impact. And again 0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:32.199 just reverting to the indoor parks thing in the dome stadiums, 0:17:33.520 --> 0:17:36.480 the Ranger Stadium in particular, Global Life Park had become 0:17:36.920 --> 0:17:39.320 over the past couple of years the most pitcher friendly 0:17:39.400 --> 0:17:42.480 environment in baseball. It had gone from being a hitter 0:17:42.560 --> 0:17:45.280 friendly park when they won the World Series all the 0:17:45.280 --> 0:17:48.480 way back to on the level of t Mobile Park 0:17:48.480 --> 0:17:51.200 in Seattle. You know, the run scoring environment in Texas 0:17:51.280 --> 0:17:54.159 for the past two years had basically been fifteen percent 0:17:54.160 --> 0:17:57.760 below the major league average. Right around that time that 0:17:57.840 --> 0:18:01.560 I pointed out that May twenty fifth time, Texas started 0:18:01.600 --> 0:18:05.280 seeing a huge increase in five ball distance the Unders, 0:18:05.280 --> 0:18:07.960 which had hit there at like a sixty five percent clip. 0:18:08.000 --> 0:18:10.800 Not kidding, it had been like sixty five percent for 0:18:10.920 --> 0:18:14.640 two years. Because the park factor keeps fluctuating so dramatically 0:18:14.720 --> 0:18:16.520 there that the market has not been able to catch 0:18:16.600 --> 0:18:19.360 up to how low it got there, and unders were 0:18:19.400 --> 0:18:20.680 just hitting at a ridiculous clip. 0:18:20.720 --> 0:18:22.399 Every total was like a run too high. 0:18:22.880 --> 0:18:26.480 Now it's come back and it's become an overpark very aggressively. 0:18:26.840 --> 0:18:28.280 Over the past six weeks, it's been one of the 0:18:28.320 --> 0:18:32.600 best over parks in baseball because either the baseballs are different, 0:18:32.880 --> 0:18:35.040 or they turned off the humid or there or a 0:18:35.080 --> 0:18:36.879 combination of both. And that is the other point I 0:18:36.920 --> 0:18:40.960 didn't emphasize earlier. I think there is a possibility, based 0:18:40.960 --> 0:18:43.320 on the fact that I'm seeing different data and different 0:18:43.320 --> 0:18:47.879 ballflight data from different parks. MLB standardized tudors in parks, 0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:50.480 and I believe twenty twenty one, I think there is 0:18:50.520 --> 0:18:53.159 a chance that they allowed some of these teams to 0:18:53.200 --> 0:18:55.480 turn them off in secret. I think that's very much 0:18:55.480 --> 0:18:59.240 a possibility, given how the ball does not seem to 0:18:59.280 --> 0:19:01.520 be getting that extra carry at. 0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:04.120 All parks across the board. 0:19:04.280 --> 0:19:06.959 Uniformly, it does seem like even in the dome stadiums, 0:19:07.280 --> 0:19:09.440 it's actually flying a little bit further than you would 0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:12.399 expect outdoors. So I do think there's a chance, on 0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:14.720 top of the baseball's being different, that there may have 0:19:14.760 --> 0:19:17.919 been a change in HUT or policy, either from MLB 0:19:18.480 --> 0:19:20.480 or from some of these teams internally, that just said 0:19:20.480 --> 0:19:22.560 we're not going to use the human or like we're 0:19:22.600 --> 0:19:25.000 supposed to and as a result, they're getting increased offense 0:19:25.000 --> 0:19:25.840 in those parks. 0:19:26.560 --> 0:19:29.240 From our last show when you talked without Baseballs, I 0:19:29.280 --> 0:19:31.879 knew a professional group that went out and bought baseballs 0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:34.879 from like twenty twenty five years ago off eBay and 0:19:34.920 --> 0:19:37.120 they cut all of them open and try to look 0:19:37.119 --> 0:19:39.679 at if there's differences from balls right now and then 0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:40.640 home run balls people. 0:19:40.480 --> 0:19:43.119 Are catching right now and then selling online. And I 0:19:43.240 --> 0:19:44.119 just be in contact with them. 0:19:44.119 --> 0:19:46.040 Their theory about it was kind of interesting about how 0:19:46.040 --> 0:19:48.919 the baseballs have changed in the last twenty five years, 0:19:48.920 --> 0:19:52.119 the inside of them, I should say. But I just 0:19:52.160 --> 0:19:53.679 love that they did it because of our show. It's like, 0:19:53.720 --> 0:19:55.360 you know, they got a couple thousand dollars to burn, 0:19:55.440 --> 0:19:57.560 why not buy these old balls to see if there's 0:19:57.560 --> 0:19:58.280 actually a difference. 0:19:59.320 --> 0:20:03.040