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Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Gloomberg even to Washington, d C,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg dwell unders to San Francisco, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: to the Country, Exam General one, and around the globe

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Radio, Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberk Surveillance.

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Speaker 1: Good Morning A thirty on All Street I Michael McKee

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Speaker 1: along with Tom Keene. Economic Indicators brought to you by

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Speaker 1: Commonwealth Financial Network. When it's time to change the conversation,

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Speaker 1: talk with a broker dealer r I A. That's regular.

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Speaker 1: Listen called eight six six four six two three three eight,

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Speaker 1: or visit Commonwealth dot com to learn more. A number

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Speaker 1: of numbers out right now, perhaps the most important one.

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Speaker 1: The trade balance for March comes in at forty point

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Speaker 1: four billion. That is significantly lower than Februaries forty seven

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Speaker 1: point one, and it's lower than the forty one point

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Speaker 1: two that had been forecast by economists. That suggests the

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Speaker 1: first quarter numbers for GDP would be revised. Higher productivity

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Speaker 1: and cost This is the second estimate here. The first

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Speaker 1: estimate rather for productivity and costs for the first quarter

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Speaker 1: UH productivity down one percent in the prior quarter was

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Speaker 1: down one point seven percent on a revised basis, so

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Speaker 1: an improvement in a negative sense. Unit labor costs though

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Speaker 1: up four point one percent in the fourth quarter two

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Speaker 1: point seven percent. Unit labor costs starting to rise. That's

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Speaker 1: an inflation concern. Let's see what happens to the bond

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Speaker 1: market after that. Later this morning, we get the I

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Speaker 1: s M Non Manufacturing Composite Index at ten am, along

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Speaker 1: with factory orders and an update on durable goods and

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Speaker 1: capital goods orders within that report, So a lot of

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Speaker 1: numbers this morning. We also had fifteen minutes ago the

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Speaker 1: ADP report a hundred and fifty six thousand jobs created

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Speaker 1: in April private sector jobs according to a DP, and

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Speaker 1: we'll see how that translates into what happens on Friday.

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Speaker 1: Jason Schenker joins us now from Prestig's Economics is president

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Speaker 1: and chief economists, and Jason some mixed news this morning.

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Speaker 1: I don't know how much weight you put on a DP,

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Speaker 1: but the trade balance obviously suggest that GDP was reported

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Speaker 1: too low the first time around, and it does look

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Speaker 1: like in the unit labor costs we may have a

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Speaker 1: little bit of price pressure. Well yeah, so I think

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Speaker 1: there are a couple of things that are you know,

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Speaker 1: if we're looking for the kernel of things that that

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Speaker 1: look right, we can look at that trade balance is

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Speaker 1: definitely better. And of course the dollar was weaker in March,

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Speaker 1: and it remains weaker, which after last week having closed

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Speaker 1: below arrange that it had been in since January two

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Speaker 1: thousand and fifteen. So that weaker dollar is going to

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Speaker 1: be helpful there. But if we look at the jobs number,

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Speaker 1: I mean, my number for Friday is more than one

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Speaker 1: seventy five, and that's definitely a lot lower than the

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Speaker 1: consensus number, which is floating between two hundred UM and

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Speaker 1: a d P number doesn't surprise me a lot, because

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Speaker 1: I think that we're going to see the labor market

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Speaker 1: start slowing. Here. There has been only one other time

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Speaker 1: in modern history where the nation's productivity, looking at a

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Speaker 1: presidential moving average of four years, has been this low.

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Speaker 1: This is the ugly double recession thirty five years ago

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Speaker 1: in the early nineties, and of course Paul Volker was

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Speaker 1: distracted there with modest inflation. Jason Schenker, what does it

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Speaker 1: mean that the sixteen quarter moving average ticked downwards with

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Speaker 1: the latest data? You know, it just it's a very

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Speaker 1: bad sign I think for the economy in general. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think you know, I've got a book I published

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Speaker 1: a couple of months ago called Recession Proof. I do

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Speaker 1: expect the US recession will start by the end of

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Speaker 1: the year. I think that there's a lot of economic

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Speaker 1: data it looks really bad. Productivity is just one of

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Speaker 1: many data points that don't look good right now. If

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Speaker 1: you look at industrial production year over year, it's been

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Speaker 1: negative for the last seven months. And you know, the

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Speaker 1: feed's been collecting that data since nineteen nineteen, and the

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Speaker 1: last time we weren't in a recession or recovering from one,

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Speaker 1: and the data was that bad since nine was never

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Speaker 1: So there's a lot of data out there that doesn't

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Speaker 1: look very good. UM, rail trucking, oil and gas, manufacturing. UM.

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Speaker 1: You know, if you look, we also compile a proprietary

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Speaker 1: index material handling. You're seeing contractions and new orders and shipments,

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Speaker 1: and and that's for goods moving through the economy. For

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Speaker 1: for consumption, I think you're going to see a slowing

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Speaker 1: in the I s M non manufacturing index. I think

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Speaker 1: the I s M in the next couple of months

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Speaker 1: is going to go back below fifty. You know, I

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Speaker 1: think that there are a number of things. While the

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Speaker 1: trade number was a little better, I think productivity fills

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Speaker 1: in with this. You know, you're you're seeing slowing growth,

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Speaker 1: you're seeing outside risk. Well, the the labor numbers six,

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Speaker 1: if that were indeed the case still enough to push

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Speaker 1: unemployment lower, Well, that's right. And you know my unemployment

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Speaker 1: numbers for Friday is for eight, so um, so I

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Speaker 1: think the unemployment rate is likely to go lower on Friday.

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Speaker 1: Right it's at five right now, so um. And that's true.

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Speaker 1: But but the problem is is that the mix of

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Speaker 1: jobs is shifting away from household formation jobs. You've had

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Speaker 1: a lot of losses and oil and gas and manufacturing jobs,

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Speaker 1: and so the jobs that you're, um, you know, you're

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Speaker 1: filling in with are are not sustainable I think for

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Speaker 1: new household formation. And I think that's one of the

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Speaker 1: reasons in March you saw housing starts, building permits, and

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Speaker 1: new home sales all go down, even though the back

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Speaker 1: end of the yield curve felt So you know, I

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Speaker 1: think that there are are you know, some problems there

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Speaker 1: where you're adding jobs, but they're not necessarily contributing you know,

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Speaker 1: the growth and I think that that's something that we're

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Speaker 1: seeing in the productivity. Jason, on the thirty seconds we

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Speaker 1: got left, We've got to get your back on for

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Speaker 1: a lot longer here. Will will your call of a

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Speaker 1: tepid economy be part of our presidential politics come the

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter? Absolutely? I have a book coming out in August,

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Speaker 1: Electing Recession will be out August twenty two. You know,

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Speaker 1: I think that this is going to be a huge

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Speaker 1: situation that they're going to have to deal with. Um.

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Speaker 1: This slowing economy is um you know, not something that's

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Speaker 1: going to go away in coming months, and it's it

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Speaker 1: will absolutely be uh, you know, the front and center

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Speaker 1: for for the debate that we're going to see between

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Speaker 1: Trump and Clinton. Jason Schenker with US as we look

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Speaker 1: at uh, interesting always controversial data, whether it was a

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Speaker 1: DP which moved the market, and certainly productivity maybe not

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Speaker 1: moving the market, but never those sobering to those looking

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Speaker 1: more to the long term. Jason Schenker with Prestige Economics,

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Speaker 1: Future is negative thirteen, del futures negative ninety five. Mike,

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Speaker 1: I really don't know what to make of the market

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Speaker 1: other than it's a jumble and a churn today as

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Speaker 1: we go? Is it a lot? It's a live show today.

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Speaker 1: I guess we would have a life. It's a live

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Speaker 1: fed meeting coming up. Future is a negative. I have

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Speaker 1: not a check in with Michael R. Get the latest

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Speaker 1: world in national headlines by time, Thank you very much.

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Speaker 1: President Obama will be in Flint, Michigan later today concerning

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Speaker 1: the city's led to contaminated water crisis. President Obama will

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Speaker 1: meet with an eight year old girl who wrote to

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Speaker 1: him and asked him to come to Flint. White House

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Speaker 1: spokesman Josh Ernest says the President will also go to

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Speaker 1: a food bank and meet with Michigan Governor Rick Snyder.

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Speaker 1: The President willna take part in a neighborhood roundtable discussion

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Speaker 1: where he will hear from Flint residents dealing firsthand with

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Speaker 1: the impact of the crisis. The President also deliver remarks

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Speaker 1: to a crowd about a thousand people at Northwestern High School,

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Speaker 1: which is located in predominantly African American North Flint. The

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Speaker 1: November presidential races in Sharper Foe kissed. Today, Republican front

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Speaker 1: runner Donald Trump called Ted Cruz a tough competitor. After

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Speaker 1: the Texas Senators has spended his campaign. Last night, Trump

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Speaker 1: won the Indiana primary for the Democrats. Bernie Sanders edgeddal

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Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton in Indiana, but Clinton is far ahead and

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Speaker 1: the delicate count New York. Stonewall Inn is set to

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Speaker 1: be the first national monument for gay rights. President Obama

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Speaker 1: plans to approve the proposal, honoring the history of the

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Speaker 1: gay and lesbian community. The stone Wall In was the

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Speaker 1: scene of the nineteen s nine uprising in Greenwich Village.

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Speaker 1: Global News twenty four hours a day, powered by our

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Speaker 1: twenty four hundred journalists at more than a hundred fifty

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Speaker 1: news bureaus from around the world. Michael bar Mike Tom Alright,

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Speaker 1: time now to check in with John stash Hour and

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Speaker 1: get the latest world in national headlines. John alright sor yeah,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to adventures. We'll move on from Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump to the Islanders, who had three differently last night.

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay scored late to tie and then again in overtime.

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Speaker 1: Brian Boyle, the X Ranger and the Lightning won five

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Speaker 1: four for a two one series lead. I under coach

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Speaker 1: Jack Tap you want to felt Boyle should not have

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Speaker 1: been allowed on the ice after his earlier hit of

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Speaker 1: Thomas Hickey. It's a direct shot to the head. I mean,

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Speaker 1: probably gonna get suspended the game, That's what I mean,

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Speaker 1: like the whole game. It shouldn't come down to that. Um,

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Speaker 1: he's standing right there. I've watched the numerous times. Now.

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Speaker 1: Those are the type of hits that we're trying to

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Speaker 1: eliminate from my game. So it's just too bad that

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Speaker 1: had been that way hit on. Hickey perhaps paid back

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Speaker 1: for his second period hit on Tampa's Jonathan Drew, and

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Speaker 1: I had to leave the game. Gave five Friday at

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Speaker 1: Barkley's NBA Playoffs on the win for Golden State even

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Speaker 1: without Steph Curry came from behind beat Portland one ninety

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Speaker 1: nine for two nothing lead. Miami won in overtime at

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Speaker 1: Toronto in Game one, Kyle Lowry had forced the ot

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Speaker 1: with a shot from mid court. Between the Medicine Yankees

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Speaker 1: last night only eight hits and one run. Mentantly had

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Speaker 1: one hit, three nothing lost to Atlanta. Matt Whistler beat

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Speaker 1: Matt Harvey, Chris Tillman beat Luis Severino in Baltimore, and

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Speaker 1: and the Yankees dropped to eight and sixteen after four

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Speaker 1: one losses. There worst starts with the Bloomberg NBC Sports Update.

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Speaker 1: I'm John, John, thanks so much, greatly appreciate that sports report.

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Speaker 1: Future secret of thirteen JAFF futures. A negative eels come

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Speaker 1: in a little bit. One point eight zero is where

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Speaker 1: we were one point seven eight right now. Even the

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Speaker 1: two year yield coming in by a full basis point

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Speaker 1: point seven four six zero for those keeping score at home.

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Speaker 1: Oil advances, dollar churning, yen churning, Euro strengthens throughout the

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Speaker 1: morning one zero eight right now. So looking at the data,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna call to Jumble again. I'm really focused on

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Speaker 1: the German two year in tenure, and they've been relatively

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Speaker 1: rock solid within global foreign exchange UH movement. Michael McKee

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Speaker 1: and Tom Keane Bloomberg Surveillance stay with us, counting you

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Speaker 1: down to the opening bell. Brought to you by the

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