Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser and I'm
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Speaker 1: search Bloomberg Global News. We mentioned some of the COVID
Speaker 1: and vaccine headlines that have been crossing the Bloomberg. The
Speaker 1: big one really is u S regulators giving a third
Speaker 1: COVID nineteen vaccine clearance to that especially for those people
Speaker 1: with weekend immune systems UH. The authorization applying to buff
Speaker 1: Maderna and Fiser with organ transplant recipients or those whose
Speaker 1: immune systems are similarly compromised, so that's what's really being focused. Meantime,
Speaker 1: you've seen some of the other headlines about Australia facing
Speaker 1: its worst COVID nighteen crisis. Yet the schools around the
Speaker 1: country trying to figure it out, voting in many cases
Speaker 1: to require masks for students and teachers. We're seeing that
Speaker 1: certainly in Houston, Chicago also taking steps, and we talked
Speaker 1: about what's going on in Belize one of the carnival
Speaker 1: cruise ships. So let's get our weekly Friday check on
Speaker 1: COVID and the world of medicine at large. Back with
Speaker 1: us is Dr Ian LUs Beder, clinical Professor of Medicine
Speaker 1: at n y U Lango and once with us once
Speaker 1: again on the phone in Long Island. Dr LUs Beder,
Speaker 1: Good to have you here. How's your week been? Okay,
Speaker 1: always the pleasure, Carol, Happy Friday, welcome back from vacation.
Speaker 1: Thank you. Yeah. Why why is it's been so busy, Well,
Speaker 1: the office is busy, and we're actually seeing a number
Speaker 1: of patients who have been vaccinated, including some staff who've
Speaker 1: gotten Delta, So we're definitely seeing those breakthroughs. And everybody
Speaker 1: is talking about the third vaccine, who's going to get
Speaker 1: it and uh and when? Well, so, what did you
Speaker 1: make of regulators coming out this week and and giving
Speaker 1: clearance for some to get that third COVID nineteen vaccine.
Speaker 1: I feel like there's gonna be a fair amount of
Speaker 1: confusion here. Yes, I think this is the first step
Speaker 1: to basically everybody getting approved for a third that scene.
Speaker 1: The immuno compromise patients are particularly a concern, and as
Speaker 1: you say, it's about two or three million Americans, and
Speaker 1: they can have solid organ transplants, can be transplant, pancreas transplant,
Speaker 1: long heart transplant UH, and then another group with UH
Speaker 1: immunose suppressant medications UH, things like the antipns for inflammatory
Speaker 1: bottel disease and rheumatorid arthritis. All of those patients to
Speaker 1: some degree may have an element an element of immuno
Speaker 1: suppression and immuno compromise. So the concern is in the
Speaker 1: patients with those organ transplants UH, they overall have a
Speaker 1: worse outcome that they get COVID to they're not they
Speaker 1: don't form antibodies as well, because part of your immune
Speaker 1: system responds to the SHOPS and they also seem to
Speaker 1: lose antibody sooner. So that group really has several why
Speaker 1: a booster shot makes sense. Although we are seeing more
Speaker 1: people like healthcare workers who are vaccinated back in January
Speaker 1: who are losing antibodies who are getting delta. So my
Speaker 1: sense is that this is the first group, and obviously
Speaker 1: it's being studied, but I suspect more and more people
Speaker 1: will have the option open to them. I do think
Speaker 1: that there's probably you know, a lot of people are
Speaker 1: listening to this conversation and they have been throughout the
Speaker 1: week here on Bloomberg trying to understand, well, wait a minute,
Speaker 1: how do I know when my immunity falls off? How
Speaker 1: does it work scientifically? Um? Does it just drop off automatically?
Speaker 1: And I know there's lots of studies being out there
Speaker 1: are people who are being followed very closely so that
Speaker 1: you know, our regulators, UM know when we're gonna need
Speaker 1: a booster on a larger scale. But can you explain
Speaker 1: that a little bit for us? Yeah, so, and I
Speaker 1: AH certainly has a group of patients they're following. Some
Speaker 1: of this data is from Israel with FISER and they
Speaker 1: were one of the first back in November, December, maybe
Speaker 1: even October to start getting the vaccines, and they're beginning
Speaker 1: to see more breakthrough an antibody levels drop. For most Americans,
Speaker 1: we do not necessarily check their antibodies, although I have
Speaker 1: I've checked patients, for example, who are traveling who may
Speaker 1: be going to another country that requires it, and you
Speaker 1: can get a spike uh antibody level. And I would
Speaker 1: say most patients um have antibodies, but we don't know
Speaker 1: the exact number where they're vulnerable. People can have no
Speaker 1: antibodies and obviously they're unprotected, but even as the antibody
Speaker 1: levels drop, we think there's a risk. And Delta seems
Speaker 1: to be a little more resistant to the antibodies. So
Speaker 1: there are several reasons why Delta is not only affecting
Speaker 1: the unvaccinated, which is obviously an epidemic and various counties
Speaker 1: and states, but why we're seeing even vaccinated people now
Speaker 1: carrying it. Delta is able because it as mutated to
Speaker 1: escape some of the antibodies formed from the original alpha
Speaker 1: variant that we gave over the last six to seven months.
Speaker 1: So do you think most of us will ultimately be
Speaker 1: getting a booster. I don't know before the end of
Speaker 1: the year. Well, I think until a Delta vaccine is made,
Speaker 1: you know, specifically for the Delta variant, and of course
Speaker 1: there may be other mutations and variants. All we can
Speaker 1: do is really give a booster of the original, which
Speaker 1: doesn't seem to have some benefit, and I do think
Speaker 1: most of us will be offered that before the end
Speaker 1: of the year. Yes, all right, interesting to see that. Um.
Speaker 1: Do you feel like the situation that we're seeing in
Speaker 1: terms of rising cases and hospitalizations not good but better
Speaker 1: than what we saw perhaps a year ago or at
Speaker 1: the beginning of the pandemic. Yes, we most more people
Speaker 1: are certainly older, more vulnerable people have been vaccinated. They're
Speaker 1: actually doing better. A lot of the young people, because
Speaker 1: they thought they were safe, have not been vaccinated. We
Speaker 1: are seeing more hospitalizations in certain areas, you know, with that,
Speaker 1: And yes, I think we're getting sort of the last
Speaker 1: number of Americans, the fifty or sixty million who were
Speaker 1: not vaccinated. Eventually, we'll all get Delta sooner or later,
Speaker 1: even with masks, UH and cohorting and pods and all
Speaker 1: of that. And I think when that wave goes through
Speaker 1: probably November, December, January, America will be in a little
Speaker 1: better place, assuming no new variants that are resistant comes through.
Speaker 1: So I think it's gonna be a rough ride for
Speaker 1: a few months. Hopefully more people will get the vaccine,
Speaker 1: will get boosters. I think and that should flatten the
Speaker 1: curve a bit, but it's still going to be a
Speaker 1: rough going for several more months. All right, let's get
Speaker 1: back to Dr in Lass Beata, clinical Professor Medicine at
Speaker 1: n y U Landgown, still with us on the phone
Speaker 1: in Long Island. I it does feel like we have
Speaker 1: learned a lot and we have obviously have a vaccine
Speaker 1: and we're gonna talk later on Uh. In just about
Speaker 1: fifteen minutes with one of our reporters is to in
Speaker 1: Business Week about you know, folks, the vaccine works and
Speaker 1: it does make a difference, and we didn't have that
Speaker 1: a year ago. We are also increasingly seeing companies say,
Speaker 1: you know what, we're watching these cases rise. We're gonna
Speaker 1: slow our role in terms of bringing people back to
Speaker 1: the office. So we have learned something, and we are
Speaker 1: learning how to manage this pandemic because we're going to
Speaker 1: have to write because it's with us for a long time. Well,
Speaker 1: it certainly looks that way. Uh. And you know, public
Speaker 1: health measures um ever, really since the Bubonic plague in
Speaker 1: the thirteen hundreds and the Spanish flew, there was a
Speaker 1: whole debate about masks, and of course at that time
Speaker 1: they just had cloth masks, but there were a number
Speaker 1: of people who were sitting on the sidewalk and so forth.
Speaker 1: So and then polio, smallpox. There's always been a pathogen
Speaker 1: at one point or another that that has threatened the public,
Speaker 1: and and the way people respond has always been very variable.
Speaker 1: We're very fortunate to have technology like vaccines and perhaps
Speaker 1: even some medications, whether it's monoclone, land of bodies or
Speaker 1: ever becton or there may be other medications out there
Speaker 1: that we need to pursue that may also be one
Speaker 1: arm of treatment. So you've got prevention, you've got diagnosis,
Speaker 1: you've got treatment. But certainly the vaccines had been very,
Speaker 1: very helpful. It would be great if we could develop
Speaker 1: rapidly a delta vaccine. But in the interim, you know,
Speaker 1: we're seeing businesses like Facebook say, you know, maybe you
Speaker 1: need to do that from home. Not all businesses can
Speaker 1: do that. I mean even medicine, which is can be
Speaker 1: remote or telemedicine. People like to commend, people like to interact.
Speaker 1: Many businesses are more productive that way. Um, and I
Speaker 1: think it's good for people's mental health. But every business
Speaker 1: has to make a decision, you know, is it better
Speaker 1: for for their employees to remain distant. Some businesses are
Speaker 1: requiring vaccines. If the FDA formally approves the vaccine, some
Speaker 1: businesses and hospitals will mandate that as part of employment.
Speaker 1: So it's a very dynamic landscape. When you see the
Speaker 1: school struggling and clashing sometimes with unions or with uh
Speaker 1: their state or local officials, a lot of schools are saying, wait,
Speaker 1: we we need to have this mask role and we're
Speaker 1: seeing course roll in and all of this. What do
Speaker 1: you believe needs to be done in order for schools
Speaker 1: to open up safely. Well, I certainly take care of
Speaker 1: the number of teachers and professors that are very reluctant
Speaker 1: to go back into the classroom. And obviously you've got
Speaker 1: some classrooms with open windows, and you've got some classrooms
Speaker 1: where everyone is vaccinated, including um, you know, perhaps the
Speaker 1: eighteen or twenty year olds in college. So it's really
Speaker 1: very variable. I think there are many kinds of masks.
Speaker 1: The N ninety pods are quite effective, most people don't
Speaker 1: wear them, or of access to that. I do think
Speaker 1: each of these is one component. So open windows, pods,
Speaker 1: masking will prevent some degree of transmission. It's not perfect
Speaker 1: by any means. We've always said the virus our souls
Speaker 1: are much tinier than the pores of the mask. But
Speaker 1: I do think all of these things are an effort
Speaker 1: to make everyone feel better that they're trying to do
Speaker 1: something that will probably slow the spread. Inevitably, the way
Speaker 1: most pandemics work is that eventually everyone gets exposed, which
Speaker 1: I think will happen, and so you want to be
Speaker 1: as protected as can be, which certainly would be vaccinations
Speaker 1: at this point, although not perfect, and we need to
Speaker 1: look at other medications that may be helpful with treatment.
Speaker 1: The FDA really needs to be more aggressive with that.
Speaker 1: Hey real quickly, just got about five seconds here. You
Speaker 1: I've heard you mentioned a couple of times a delta vaccine.
Speaker 1: Is that likely before the end of the year. I
Speaker 1: don't think so. If they're working on it, I think
Speaker 1: it's going to be easier to distribute the current manufacturing
Speaker 1: of the first of the alpha basically eventually we may
Speaker 1: need to do that, and I think it's good to
Speaker 1: develop that technology anyway. Well, always good to check. I agree,
Speaker 1: and I think many of the medical profession will concur
Speaker 1: with you. Ian. Thank you so much. Have a good,
Speaker 1: safe weekend. Dr Ian las Bader, his crilitical professor of
Speaker 1: Medicine at n YU Land, going joining us on the
Speaker 1: phone in Long Island. And just as a reminder global
Speaker 1: tracker that we have here at Bloomberg virus cases topping
Speaker 1: two hundred five point six million, deaths passing four point
Speaker 1: three million, and when it comes to the vaccine, more
Speaker 1: than four point six billion doses have been administered. You're
Speaker 1: listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So I've been
Speaker 1: referencing this story as we talked with Dr Ian lous
Speaker 1: Bader over at n y U Land going. You know,
Speaker 1: amid all the headlines of rising virus cases and hospitalizations
Speaker 1: due to the delta variant, it's very easy to lose
Speaker 1: sight of the fact that COVID vaccines are really working.
Speaker 1: That's a Business Week story now online and on the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal. So let's dig into it with Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: Week editor Joel Weber. He's with us on the remote
Speaker 1: access line in Massachusetts, along with Bloomberg News US healthcare
Speaker 1: reporter Cynthia Kon. She's on the phone in New Jersey,
Speaker 1: Zee and Cynthia. I want to start with you because
Speaker 1: you've been following this. Uh, I feel like you're on
Speaker 1: your soapbox a little bit, but in a good way. Well,
Speaker 1: thanks for having me, Carol. I think the reality is here.
Speaker 1: The data is really confusing for people. There's a lot
Speaker 1: of data coming out really quickly, and there's a lot
Speaker 1: of anecdotal stories coming out. And I see this in
Speaker 1: my own life. I think people are hearing about breakthrough
Speaker 1: infections in their own community, among their friends and family,
Speaker 1: and they don't know how to make sense of these
Speaker 1: some of these data sets that have been you know,
Speaker 1: made visualizations online showing how rarit is to get a
Speaker 1: breakthrough intraction. So I think people are really confused. And
Speaker 1: I think adding and actually probably feeding that narrative is
Speaker 1: really the fact the CDC hasn't come out with a
Speaker 1: lot of high level data and information about breakthrough infections
Speaker 1: that might help people, you know, get a real handle
Speaker 1: on what we're seeing here. And so there's just this
Speaker 1: overarching seeing that we continue to talk about with doctors
Speaker 1: um when we report on this, and it's that the
Speaker 1: COVID vaccine it doesn't have the ability to stop infection
Speaker 1: the way other vaccines might. You might be thinking of
Speaker 1: the measles vaccine, which prevented you from getting measles entirely,
Speaker 1: but that's not what the COVID vaccine has the capability
Speaker 1: to do, particularly in the face of delta. It does
Speaker 1: have the ability from what we've seen from breakthrough data,
Speaker 1: it weakens the virus and so people's experiences don't lead
Speaker 1: hospitalization and death, and that's critical. That's very critical from
Speaker 1: a public health perspective. But I think people, to be fair,
Speaker 1: they don't get thick in the first place, so it's
Speaker 1: not it's it's there's no You can see why people
Speaker 1: are frustrated by this confusing messaging, and I think the
Speaker 1: CDC needs to come out and give more data about
Speaker 1: breakthrough infections and who's more at risk, because I think
Speaker 1: that's the story that people are really you know, waiting here.
Speaker 1: It's so important, Jill, you know, that's one of the
Speaker 1: things I've been thinking about. It do feel like that
Speaker 1: we're losing some of those important data points that really
Speaker 1: kept us well informed, and especially now that we're dealing
Speaker 1: with the delta variant well, and I think it speaks
Speaker 1: to just like there's there's new information that people who
Speaker 1: are interested in and and and Cynthia just like bringing
Speaker 1: back to the CDC there. I mean, what do we
Speaker 1: know about how they're even tracking breakthrough infections, because as
Speaker 1: Bloomberg reported earlier in the year, that was not even
Speaker 1: something that they were keeping an eye on for a
Speaker 1: long time. So they decided only to to track hospitalized
Speaker 1: breakthrough patients. And I don't know if that was because
Speaker 1: of the resources involved in tracking all breakthrough cases, but
Speaker 1: I was really surprised to learn when I did another
Speaker 1: story on sequencing in the US, how there wasn't a
Speaker 1: ton of connectivity in the system. So if a person
Speaker 1: shows up and gets a COVID test, they may not
Speaker 1: be asked if they had had COVID before. They might
Speaker 1: not be asked if they had been vaccinated, for example,
Speaker 1: and so that critical information may not even get to
Speaker 1: the labs where they're sequencing the virus. That may have
Speaker 1: to be pieced together in an epidemiology report or study
Speaker 1: later on, But at that point we're losing weeks in
Speaker 1: terms of figuring out if if we have an increasing
Speaker 1: number of people who are vaccinated and getting the virus.
Speaker 1: So that's problematic to begin with, and that of sort
Speaker 1: of points to this lack of a cohesive system we have.
Speaker 1: But the CDC said they were just going to focus
Speaker 1: on the hospitalized patients because those were the most critical
Speaker 1: in terms of understanding, Okay, this is the most virulent
Speaker 1: type of virus and this is what we need to
Speaker 1: protect against. But even within the public health communities who
Speaker 1: have been watching this closely, there's frustration that we haven't
Speaker 1: gotten lots of reports about the hospitalized patients to begin with,
Speaker 1: so we don't necessarily have a lot of updates on
Speaker 1: were those people, say I don't know, had other home
Speaker 1: moor abilities or when did they get their vaccines. That's
Speaker 1: a big question. Does community wane over time and so
Speaker 1: are these some of the earliest vaccinated patients for example.
Speaker 1: And then lastly, people argued to me that if we
Speaker 1: don't look at break through infections before their hospitalized cases,
Speaker 1: we're missing a really big opportunity to make some deuce
Speaker 1: some interventions or stop this, or have knowledge sooner when
Speaker 1: it's when it's more important for us to know what's
Speaker 1: going on with breakthroughs overall than just the sickst patients.
Speaker 1: So that's another important thought that maybe we do need
Speaker 1: to double down now and say, Okay, this is happening,
Speaker 1: we need to allocute resources and makes us a priority
Speaker 1: to study it. And how much how much does the
Speaker 1: FDA taking into account um breakthrough stuff, break through infections
Speaker 1: and delta for that matter, and what they're doing because obviously,
Speaker 1: and we talked about this a little bit before on
Speaker 1: the show this week, you know, there's especially when it
Speaker 1: comes to kids, like that f d A approval um
Speaker 1: and vaccine hesitancy that that seems to be like sort
Speaker 1: of the next shoe to drop in terms of, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, public health messaging here in terms of getting
Speaker 1: younger children vaccinated you mean, Joel, Yeah, exactly, and like
Speaker 1: even just having the FDA stamp of approval in terms
Speaker 1: of overcoming people who have hesitancy. Still, yes, so there's
Speaker 1: some critical things that should happen soon, which is full
Speaker 1: approval from the FDA. And then to the next stat
Speaker 1: is really the approval for the vaccine under twelves. I
Speaker 1: think there's a five to eleven cohort and then um
Speaker 1: two to five I think are the breakdowns in terms
Speaker 1: of how these have been studied, and so those are
Speaker 1: really important they're they're going to happen this fall. I
Speaker 1: have to say that f D is a really um
Speaker 1: runs a little bit more conservative in terms of drug approvals.
Speaker 1: They may take more time, and I don't think that's
Speaker 1: a bad thing. I know that people are really, you know,
Speaker 1: really want these vaccines for children, for example, perhaps full approval,
Speaker 1: and I'm sure they're working around the clock. I think
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, the FDA taking a
Speaker 1: little more time to do that is probably not a
Speaker 1: bad thing because I think one of the parts of
Speaker 1: the narrative is that this has been hurried. When you
Speaker 1: look at the anti vac sentiment, that's some of this
Speaker 1: that's that comes up a lot. And so the FDA
Speaker 1: is doing things how they want to do it, and
Speaker 1: I think they should resist the pressure to speed things
Speaker 1: up just for the sake of having something that you know,
Speaker 1: they have to use, that follow the process and protocols,
Speaker 1: and they've they've actually been out of step with other
Speaker 1: regulators and drugs in the past, and it's been to
Speaker 1: the safety of the process. So I think that's not
Speaker 1: necessarily a bad thing. But to be fair, these these
Speaker 1: pediatric trials are huge, so it's gonna it may be,
Speaker 1: you know, a little bit longer before we get that data,
Speaker 1: but I think in the grand scheme of things, it
Speaker 1: is coming really soon. It'll be this fall. So I
Speaker 1: think that is really up positive. You gotta say the
Speaker 1: last line in your story and for those who might
Speaker 1: be hesitant about getting the vaccine, if you think it's
Speaker 1: been bad, it could get much worse. And you cite
Speaker 1: somebody in an immunology professor at Louisa Louisiana State University
Speaker 1: in treport who said, I would almost guarantee that we
Speaker 1: have more variants that come and they may be worse
Speaker 1: than delta. That's why it's so critical to get immunized.
Speaker 1: I mean, if we don't get to hurt immunity, the
Speaker 1: potential for it to get much worse is out there
Speaker 1: and just quickly, um Cynthia. Yeah. And the thing is
Speaker 1: the unvaccinated population is how these variants emerged. So the
Speaker 1: act of not being vaccinated isn't just about not spreading
Speaker 1: COVID to your neighbors are getting it yourself. It's also
Speaker 1: about not becoming a breeding ground for a variant that
Speaker 1: becomes more dangerous than delta. So getting vaccinated protects your neighbor, yourself,
Speaker 1: your household, and the rest of society when it comes
Speaker 1: to not creating new variants in this ecosystem. So that
Speaker 1: is the most important thing we can do. It's the
Speaker 1: beyond masking and other things that we can do that
Speaker 1: our public health measures. But but as an individual, getting
Speaker 1: a vaccine is really powerful for preventing whatever is coming
Speaker 1: behind delta. Yep, back to thinking about your community. Cynthia Coons,
Speaker 1: thank you so much, US healthcare reporter at Bloomberg News.
Speaker 1: Check out her story on the Bloombergain at Bloomberg dot com.
Speaker 1: Toe Webber, have a good weekend, editor of Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: Week from Massachusetts. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol
Speaker 1: Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: All right, there's a fascinating and thoughtful column that you
Speaker 1: can find at Bloomberg dot com also on the Bloomberg Terminal.
Speaker 1: It asks a question, what could possibly unite a drug
Speaker 1: developer with a manufacturer of electric cars. It's all in
Speaker 1: the narrative, so writes Bloomberg Opinion column that our next guest,
Speaker 1: Max Neeson. He is biotech format and healthcare columnist at
Speaker 1: Blomberg Opinion. You wrote it with our Bloomberg Liam at
Speaker 1: Denning and Max training us on the phone in New
Speaker 1: York City. Max. It's a great column. It's a thoughtful column,
Speaker 1: and it really does make you stop and think. Tell
Speaker 1: us about the comparison on Maderna and Tesla. Sure, absolutely, so,
Speaker 1: you know there's obvious comparison is that both of them,
Speaker 1: um have have added you know, more than a hundred
Speaker 1: billion dollars in Testl's case, several hundreds of billions of
Speaker 1: dollars um in value in a very short amount of
Speaker 1: time um. And and that has people calling Maderna, including
Speaker 1: some anos, the Tesla biotech just in that it's added
Speaker 1: a tremendous amount of value. Yeah, um in it um
Speaker 1: it Also it's sort of being valued like a platform,
Speaker 1: not just for its enorvously successful COVID vaccine, but for
Speaker 1: what comes next. So that sort of prompted us to
Speaker 1: take a closer work and what sort of you can
Speaker 1: learn by by looking at the two of them together. Well,
Speaker 1: for Tesla, for a long time, I mean we had
Speaker 1: so many conversations here on Bloomberg with analysts, investors. It
Speaker 1: was really a wait and see and there was lots
Speaker 1: of promises about what it would be for a long time,
Speaker 1: and it you really had to have faith in the company.
Speaker 1: And it feels like I get the comparison because obviously
Speaker 1: we get Macderna. We talked about it daily. The run
Speaker 1: up that we've seen has been tremendous. Um a little
Speaker 1: bit of a pullback this week, but certainly a lot
Speaker 1: so far in one. And yet it's it's got to
Speaker 1: be about more than just a COVID vaccine in order
Speaker 1: for those expectations to play out. Yeah, that's what's so
Speaker 1: interesting about It remains a wait and see, but it's
Speaker 1: a wait and see that that to some extent is materialized.
Speaker 1: You know, they continue to grow sales. If people look
Speaker 1: out over time, you know they're multiple is very very
Speaker 1: high right now. But if you look at it a
Speaker 1: few years hour and it gets more reasonable. Macderna is
Speaker 1: the opposite. It looks reasonable now because they're generating enormous
Speaker 1: sales from from their COVID vaccine, but go a few
Speaker 1: years later or when those sales are expected to prime
Speaker 1: one hopes as the pandemic receives and the multiple suddenly
Speaker 1: looks very high. Indeed, because it's going to be quite
Speaker 1: some time before the rest of its pipeline arrives, So
Speaker 1: you really have to believe that you have our name
Speaker 1: technology can can succeed in a variety of other ways.
Speaker 1: Um and in fact, you know, at a higher rate
Speaker 1: and with better commercial potential than other drunk companies usually
Speaker 1: managed to justify its evaluation. You know, it just as
Speaker 1: a reminder to Max that deep down, you know, when
Speaker 1: you get away from all the headlines and you forget
Speaker 1: all the things that Elon Musk does and is out
Speaker 1: there that at you know, at its heart, Tesla has been,
Speaker 1: you know, a startup tech company at least at its roots, right,
Speaker 1: and it had to play out and an innovator, a disruptor,
Speaker 1: and so you know, you had to kind of wait
Speaker 1: for it to grow into its expectations. And as you
Speaker 1: say with Maderna, it's in many ways now going to
Speaker 1: go back to being a traditional biotech company, right with
Speaker 1: prom his promises, investments, investments, and then ultimately maybe it'll
Speaker 1: pay off long term. One of the things that you
Speaker 1: get to into your story that I think is so
Speaker 1: important for our audience. You talk about TAM the total
Speaker 1: addressable market. That's key in understanding both of these stories
Speaker 1: you are. So with Tons, that's always been the thing
Speaker 1: that justifies it's ever expanding valuation, um suggesting that it's
Speaker 1: going to get into new businesses, some more plausible than others,
Speaker 1: which is why, you know, even even though it certainly
Speaker 1: make grow into its vallerations still very rich and the
Speaker 1: still have to make a lot of assumptions to get there.
Speaker 1: But with mcderna, it's a little bit of a different
Speaker 1: story in that you know, there there's certainly many other
Speaker 1: drug markets that can break into, but it's already sort
Speaker 1: of being valued at the same level as a you know,
Speaker 1: mature drug companies that have you know, big tens of
Speaker 1: billions in recurring revenue, not sort of just pandemic specific revenue.
Speaker 1: So so it has a long way to go into
Speaker 1: it can actually prove that it can generate that on
Speaker 1: an ongoing basis, So to be very interesting to watch
Speaker 1: if you can actually you know, fulfilling and maybe expand
Speaker 1: its market in a way that that sort of lives
Speaker 1: up to what people are valuing. I mentioned you wrote
Speaker 1: this column with ar Liam Denning, who follows the tech
Speaker 1: space and names like Tesla in particular, what some of
Speaker 1: the conversations went back and forth between you two about
Speaker 1: how it was the same, how it was different. Sure,
Speaker 1: so it really it really was because it was just
Speaker 1: going back through the history of of how Tesla got
Speaker 1: to its valuation and then how Maderna did. Um it
Speaker 1: Elk sort of goes back to that that tam story
Speaker 1: where um, you know, at every point you find for
Speaker 1: you know, some sort of justification to take things further
Speaker 1: and further. And then what we got to was, you know,
Speaker 1: people keep finding a way to expand that for Tesla,
Speaker 1: but but they may have reached a bit of a
Speaker 1: morbal limit with Maderna. Just looking at the different industries
Speaker 1: and and how I think people for yeah, um, in
Speaker 1: the context of the pandemic, how well did you fail?
Speaker 1: Youre prone? The drug process not the drug making process
Speaker 1: is not drunk R and D. You know, most products
Speaker 1: you you investigate end up failing. So I'm really did
Speaker 1: um make for a really interesting conversation and I hope
Speaker 1: column as well. Yeah, it's a great read. We were
Speaker 1: talking about it in the newsroom and I'm so glad
Speaker 1: you were able to come on and share your thoughts
Speaker 1: with us with our audience. Max Neison, thank you so
Speaker 1: much of a great weekend. Max is biotech format and
Speaker 1: healthcare columnist A Blooberg opinion Bro mac Journal. Now, but
Speaker 1: you let me drive? Oh no, no, no no, no, oh
Speaker 1: night please, I'll do the right drivel. I want to drive,
Speaker 1: Just drive, baby, It's good. Questions to dry. Yeah, this
Speaker 1: is the drive to the globe. D TikTok. We're just
Speaker 1: about ten half minutes away from wrapping up not only
Speaker 1: the trading day but the trading week, and we are
Speaker 1: seeing stocks bouncing around little change. Is very tight trading range.
Speaker 1: It does feel like everybody's headed to the beach. Uh
Speaker 1: for uh the week and the weekend already, let's bring
Speaker 1: in the Rebecca Corbyn, founder and CEO at Corbin Advisors. Uh.
Speaker 1: They are a strategic consultancy and research firms. She joins
Speaker 1: us once again on the phone from Farmington, Connecticut. Rebecca,
Speaker 1: how are you? Where is everybody? Hi? Carol, Well, mostly
Speaker 1: on vacation. You know, we're essentially wrapping up earning season
Speaker 1: and this has been a tough year. Hopefully they're taking
Speaker 1: a little break. If you work for Carlisle, you get
Speaker 1: the week off next week. So, uh, we're seeing that happen.
Speaker 1: We talked with them this week, UM human capital management
Speaker 1: story exactly exactly. Hey, you are constantly checking in on
Speaker 1: what's on the mind of investors, UM. What are you hearing? Sure? Well,
Speaker 1: you know, heading into the order, a lot of optimism,
Speaker 1: big expectations for significant beats that was handily delivered to them.
Speaker 1: We just did a pulse pole yesterday. Global institutional investors
Speaker 1: UM more are more concerned about UM COVID UH, they're
Speaker 1: raising delta and landed variants, concerns around the VACU resistant population,
Speaker 1: and almost forty or more concerned around inflation than they
Speaker 1: were just a month prior. So, you know, there's a
Speaker 1: lot of UM sentiment. Obviously, we have very strong earnings,
Speaker 1: we had guides that were raised UM. But heading into
Speaker 1: Q three and Q four UM, there is a lot
Speaker 1: of concern heading into that with regard to COVID inflation,
Speaker 1: other supply chain disruption. Still, hey, wait, I want to
Speaker 1: make sure I understand this. So this pole yesterday global investors,
Speaker 1: you're saying that fifty percent are more concerned, are more
Speaker 1: concerned about okay, and more concerned about inflation than they
Speaker 1: were a month ago. Yeah, and last last quarter we
Speaker 1: registered the highest level of concern around inflation. Okay, And
Speaker 1: I do feel like you know, once we get through
Speaker 1: those earnings periods, everybody is a little bit lost, especially
Speaker 1: because there are so many questions about COVID at there,
Speaker 1: what might be next for FED policy. It's just funny,
Speaker 1: you know, markets like it when it's sure right when
Speaker 1: we're either gangbusters or we're falling apart, because policy is
Speaker 1: then very clear, and that's not where we are right
Speaker 1: now now. And I think we also, you know, we
Speaker 1: talked last time around the dynamics that are happening. We're
Speaker 1: seeing record levels of demand. There there is no shortage
Speaker 1: of demand for product right now. However, once one of
Speaker 1: the factors that is changing relative to what we were
Speaker 1: saying is the consumer. And the consumer as we saw UM,
Speaker 1: consumer sentiment plunged today to the lowest level since UM.
Speaker 1: They're feeling it in their wallet. And as we talked
Speaker 1: about last time, right the supply chain, that cost inflation
Speaker 1: has to move through the supply chain. The last person
Speaker 1: holding the hot potato is the consumer because there's no
Speaker 1: one else to pass the cost too. And so they're
Speaker 1: going to speak UM loudly, and you know, we should
Speaker 1: be listening to whether they're continuing to spend or not. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it was interesting that consumer sentiment number two that they
Speaker 1: were worried. I'm just looking back. Uh, percent of respondents
Speaker 1: expected decline in the jobless rate. Only percent of respondents
Speaker 1: expected to cline in the jobless rate. That's down from
Speaker 1: fifty the prior month. Despite record job openings, consumers also
Speaker 1: became decidedly downbeat about their income prospects. The gauge of
Speaker 1: expected personal finances fell to a seven year low. That's
Speaker 1: pretty dramatic. Yeah, And you know what's interesting is we
Speaker 1: saw a massive increase in the number of companies talking
Speaker 1: about labor or wage inflation. I should say it was
Speaker 1: actually higher than those talking about commodity inflation, which is significant.
Speaker 1: And those are things that stay stay with the company
Speaker 1: for a while. So okay, so that's out there. That's
Speaker 1: one narrative. Right. We've had an interesting trading week. We've
Speaker 1: been in a very tight range. It's been lower volume.
Speaker 1: It does feel like everybody has gone away for a
Speaker 1: little bit, and maybe they're all just waiting for Jackson
Speaker 1: Holland to see what the latest shoe might be to
Speaker 1: drop from the Federal Reserve. They'll most think that they're
Speaker 1: not going to change their narrative. Speaking of narratives, UM
Speaker 1: a lot, how you know. And then we keep having
Speaker 1: record after record in the s and P five. Here
Speaker 1: we are again, and I think we're gonna be apt.
Speaker 1: What is it if we get a record close today,
Speaker 1: it's forty eight record closes this year. How do you
Speaker 1: balance that against some of the nervousness we're seeing the market?
Speaker 1: Does that set up the equity market at least for
Speaker 1: some kind of pullback at some point? Well, you know,
Speaker 1: there there's so much um, there's so much capital out there.
Speaker 1: Uh So you know, I I just I can't imagine
Speaker 1: a time where the equity markets you know, sure we'll
Speaker 1: go through you know kind of potential like crashes and
Speaker 1: then obviously fits and starts here and there, but you know,
Speaker 1: over time, the equity markets will continue to drive higher. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, there is a lot of concern around the
Speaker 1: said policy. So there's windows of opportunity when you can
Speaker 1: raise interest rates where it feels okay. And and the
Speaker 1: benefit of raising interest rates UM is actually for the
Speaker 1: opportunity that when we get into a position of you know,
Speaker 1: economic deceleration, you have a lever to pull and that
Speaker 1: lever sits very comfortably with the consumer. Um, we really
Speaker 1: don't have those levers right now, and we're and we're
Speaker 1: you know, the the window is closing because of the
Speaker 1: massive inflation that's hitting the consumer. So I mean, we're
Speaker 1: you know, I would just say that we're really out
Speaker 1: of wack on this cycle. COVID very very quick to
Speaker 1: go into companies adapted extremely diligently and agile e learning
Speaker 1: from the g SC right great Financial Crisis, and now
Speaker 1: we're seeing this sling shot into you know, growth momentum
Speaker 1: somewhere it needs to you know, even out and get
Speaker 1: to normalization UM. But there's still discussion around you know,
Speaker 1: strong growth into In fact, estimates that have been provided
Speaker 1: for Q three and Q four still show continued growth
Speaker 1: above UM five year averages. And you know, in terms
Speaker 1: of that, that's because there's a lot of stimulus out
Speaker 1: there right at this point. I mean, there's still tons
Speaker 1: of you know, and that's actually what's creating the labor
Speaker 1: shortage to a lot of extent um you know, the
Speaker 1: and and that's going to increase, so you know, in
Speaker 1: terms of inflation, and we talked about this last and
Speaker 1: there are going to be inflationary costs that are not transitory,
Speaker 1: and those are really going to be around um, you know, wages, salaries.
Speaker 1: It is an employee and employees market right now, highest
Speaker 1: level of turnover um ever recorded. And every single company,
Speaker 1: you know, eighty two percent of companies on on earnings
Speaker 1: talked about labor issues. No, it's really you know exactly,
Speaker 1: it's important. We keep hearing it. And you know, this
Speaker 1: is why I think we're waiting to see some of
Speaker 1: the data points when we get into September October. If
Speaker 1: the world reopens, if kids go back to school, if
Speaker 1: people who maybe couldn't go back to their jobs can
Speaker 1: now go back, maybe we get to see some truer
Speaker 1: numbers and maybe those jobs get filled. But I guess
Speaker 1: time will tell, especially it's a little tricky here with
Speaker 1: the delta variant. Having said that, the outlook for next week,
Speaker 1: what are you expecting another quiet week at this point, again,
Speaker 1: just counting down to Jackson Hall. Absolutely, I mean earning
Speaker 1: season is essentially completed. We do get from that. We
Speaker 1: will hear from retailers, right, We'll hear from the retail sectors. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they're they're off cycle though, right, so they're kind of
Speaker 1: on their own cycle based on the retail um segment.
Speaker 1: But you know, it is going to be quiet, and
Speaker 1: I think people are going to investors are going to
Speaker 1: digest this. You know, clearly with the with the raisors
Speaker 1: and guidance, there is still confidence heading into the back house.
Speaker 1: But margins are are are likely to be impacted. And
Speaker 1: so we're going to you know, we're really going to
Speaker 1: see what happens with inflation as it works through its
Speaker 1: system and as those you know, the kind of box
Speaker 1: stops here. I think one thing that we need to
Speaker 1: be um looking out for is a the margin um
Speaker 1: would be you know, sequential sequential growth or deceleration, not
Speaker 1: year over year. That's a good point because that makes
Speaker 1: a big difference because a year over year we know
Speaker 1: or last year we know what was happening. Hey, Rebecca,
Speaker 1: I have a great week. And Rebecca Corbin Chi's founder
Speaker 1: and chief executive officer of Corbyn Advisors joining us on
Speaker 1: the phone from Farmington, Connecticut. They are a strategic consultancy
Speaker 1: at research firm. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.
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