WEBVTT - FDA Clears Shot for Some With Poor Immune Defence

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>can also listen to our radio show at two pm

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<v Speaker 1>Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube

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<v Speaker 1>search Bloomberg Global News. We mentioned some of the COVID

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<v Speaker 1>and vaccine headlines that have been crossing the Bloomberg. The

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<v Speaker 1>big one really is u S regulators giving a third

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<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen vaccine clearance to that especially for those people

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<v Speaker 1>with weekend immune systems UH. The authorization applying to buff

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<v Speaker 1>Maderna and Fiser with organ transplant recipients or those whose

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<v Speaker 1>immune systems are similarly compromised, so that's what's really being focused. Meantime,

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<v Speaker 1>you've seen some of the other headlines about Australia facing

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<v Speaker 1>its worst COVID nighteen crisis. Yet the schools around the

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<v Speaker 1>country trying to figure it out, voting in many cases

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<v Speaker 1>to require masks for students and teachers. We're seeing that

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<v Speaker 1>certainly in Houston, Chicago also taking steps, and we talked

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<v Speaker 1>about what's going on in Belize one of the carnival

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<v Speaker 1>cruise ships. So let's get our weekly Friday check on

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<v Speaker 1>COVID and the world of medicine at large. Back with

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<v Speaker 1>us is Dr Ian LUs Beder, clinical Professor of Medicine

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<v Speaker 1>at n y U Lango and once with us once

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<v Speaker 1>again on the phone in Long Island. Dr LUs Beder,

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<v Speaker 1>Good to have you here. How's your week been? Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>always the pleasure, Carol, Happy Friday, welcome back from vacation.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you. Yeah. Why why is it's been so busy, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>the office is busy, and we're actually seeing a number

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<v Speaker 1>of patients who have been vaccinated, including some staff who've

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<v Speaker 1>gotten Delta, So we're definitely seeing those breakthroughs. And everybody

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<v Speaker 1>is talking about the third vaccine, who's going to get

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<v Speaker 1>it and uh and when? Well, so, what did you

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<v Speaker 1>make of regulators coming out this week and and giving

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<v Speaker 1>clearance for some to get that third COVID nineteen vaccine.

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like there's gonna be a fair amount of

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<v Speaker 1>confusion here. Yes, I think this is the first step

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<v Speaker 1>to basically everybody getting approved for a third that scene.

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<v Speaker 1>The immuno compromise patients are particularly a concern, and as

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<v Speaker 1>you say, it's about two or three million Americans, and

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<v Speaker 1>they can have solid organ transplants, can be transplant, pancreas transplant,

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<v Speaker 1>long heart transplant UH, and then another group with UH

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<v Speaker 1>immunose suppressant medications UH, things like the antipns for inflammatory

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<v Speaker 1>bottel disease and rheumatorid arthritis. All of those patients to

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<v Speaker 1>some degree may have an element an element of immuno

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<v Speaker 1>suppression and immuno compromise. So the concern is in the

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<v Speaker 1>patients with those organ transplants UH, they overall have a

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<v Speaker 1>worse outcome that they get COVID to they're not they

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<v Speaker 1>don't form antibodies as well, because part of your immune

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<v Speaker 1>system responds to the SHOPS and they also seem to

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<v Speaker 1>lose antibody sooner. So that group really has several why

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<v Speaker 1>a booster shot makes sense. Although we are seeing more

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<v Speaker 1>people like healthcare workers who are vaccinated back in January

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<v Speaker 1>who are losing antibodies who are getting delta. So my

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<v Speaker 1>sense is that this is the first group, and obviously

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<v Speaker 1>it's being studied, but I suspect more and more people

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<v Speaker 1>will have the option open to them. I do think

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<v Speaker 1>that there's probably you know, a lot of people are

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<v Speaker 1>listening to this conversation and they have been throughout the

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<v Speaker 1>week here on Bloomberg trying to understand, well, wait a minute,

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<v Speaker 1>how do I know when my immunity falls off? How

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<v Speaker 1>does it work scientifically? Um? Does it just drop off automatically?

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<v Speaker 1>And I know there's lots of studies being out there

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<v Speaker 1>are people who are being followed very closely so that

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<v Speaker 1>you know, our regulators, UM know when we're gonna need

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<v Speaker 1>a booster on a larger scale. But can you explain

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<v Speaker 1>that a little bit for us? Yeah, so, and I

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<v Speaker 1>AH certainly has a group of patients they're following. Some

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<v Speaker 1>of this data is from Israel with FISER and they

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<v Speaker 1>were one of the first back in November, December, maybe

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<v Speaker 1>even October to start getting the vaccines, and they're beginning

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<v Speaker 1>to see more breakthrough an antibody levels drop. For most Americans,

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<v Speaker 1>we do not necessarily check their antibodies, although I have

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<v Speaker 1>I've checked patients, for example, who are traveling who may

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<v Speaker 1>be going to another country that requires it, and you

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<v Speaker 1>can get a spike uh antibody level. And I would

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<v Speaker 1>say most patients um have antibodies, but we don't know

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<v Speaker 1>the exact number where they're vulnerable. People can have no

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<v Speaker 1>antibodies and obviously they're unprotected, but even as the antibody

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<v Speaker 1>levels drop, we think there's a risk. And Delta seems

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<v Speaker 1>to be a little more resistant to the antibodies. So

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<v Speaker 1>there are several reasons why Delta is not only affecting

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<v Speaker 1>the unvaccinated, which is obviously an epidemic and various counties

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<v Speaker 1>and states, but why we're seeing even vaccinated people now

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<v Speaker 1>carrying it. Delta is able because it as mutated to

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<v Speaker 1>escape some of the antibodies formed from the original alpha

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<v Speaker 1>variant that we gave over the last six to seven months.

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<v Speaker 1>So do you think most of us will ultimately be

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<v Speaker 1>getting a booster. I don't know before the end of

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<v Speaker 1>the year. Well, I think until a Delta vaccine is made,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, specifically for the Delta variant, and of course

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<v Speaker 1>there may be other mutations and variants. All we can

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<v Speaker 1>do is really give a booster of the original, which

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't seem to have some benefit, and I do think

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<v Speaker 1>most of us will be offered that before the end

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<v Speaker 1>of the year. Yes, all right, interesting to see that. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you feel like the situation that we're seeing in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of rising cases and hospitalizations not good but better

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<v Speaker 1>than what we saw perhaps a year ago or at

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<v Speaker 1>the beginning of the pandemic. Yes, we most more people

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<v Speaker 1>are certainly older, more vulnerable people have been vaccinated. They're

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<v Speaker 1>actually doing better. A lot of the young people, because

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<v Speaker 1>they thought they were safe, have not been vaccinated. We

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<v Speaker 1>are seeing more hospitalizations in certain areas, you know, with that,

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<v Speaker 1>And yes, I think we're getting sort of the last

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<v Speaker 1>number of Americans, the fifty or sixty million who were

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<v Speaker 1>not vaccinated. Eventually, we'll all get Delta sooner or later,

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<v Speaker 1>even with masks, UH and cohorting and pods and all

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<v Speaker 1>of that. And I think when that wave goes through

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<v Speaker 1>probably November, December, January, America will be in a little

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<v Speaker 1>better place, assuming no new variants that are resistant comes through.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think it's gonna be a rough ride for

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<v Speaker 1>a few months. Hopefully more people will get the vaccine,

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<v Speaker 1>will get boosters. I think and that should flatten the

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<v Speaker 1>curve a bit, but it's still going to be a

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<v Speaker 1>rough going for several more months. All right, let's get

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<v Speaker 1>back to Dr in Lass Beata, clinical Professor Medicine at

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<v Speaker 1>n y U Landgown, still with us on the phone

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<v Speaker 1>in Long Island. I it does feel like we have

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<v Speaker 1>learned a lot and we have obviously have a vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>and we're gonna talk later on Uh. In just about

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<v Speaker 1>fifteen minutes with one of our reporters is to in

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week about you know, folks, the vaccine works and

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<v Speaker 1>it does make a difference, and we didn't have that

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<v Speaker 1>a year ago. We are also increasingly seeing companies say,

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<v Speaker 1>you know what, we're watching these cases rise. We're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>slow our role in terms of bringing people back to

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<v Speaker 1>the office. So we have learned something, and we are

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<v Speaker 1>learning how to manage this pandemic because we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>have to write because it's with us for a long time. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>it certainly looks that way. Uh. And you know, public

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<v Speaker 1>health measures um ever, really since the Bubonic plague in

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<v Speaker 1>the thirteen hundreds and the Spanish flew, there was a

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<v Speaker 1>whole debate about masks, and of course at that time

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<v Speaker 1>they just had cloth masks, but there were a number

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<v Speaker 1>of people who were sitting on the sidewalk and so forth.

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<v Speaker 1>So and then polio, smallpox. There's always been a pathogen

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<v Speaker 1>at one point or another that that has threatened the public,

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<v Speaker 1>and and the way people respond has always been very variable.

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<v Speaker 1>We're very fortunate to have technology like vaccines and perhaps

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<v Speaker 1>even some medications, whether it's monoclone, land of bodies or

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<v Speaker 1>ever becton or there may be other medications out there

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<v Speaker 1>that we need to pursue that may also be one

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<v Speaker 1>arm of treatment. So you've got prevention, you've got diagnosis,

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<v Speaker 1>you've got treatment. But certainly the vaccines had been very,

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<v Speaker 1>very helpful. It would be great if we could develop

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<v Speaker 1>rapidly a delta vaccine. But in the interim, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we're seeing businesses like Facebook say, you know, maybe you

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<v Speaker 1>need to do that from home. Not all businesses can

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<v Speaker 1>do that. I mean even medicine, which is can be

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<v Speaker 1>remote or telemedicine. People like to commend, people like to interact.

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<v Speaker 1>Many businesses are more productive that way. Um, and I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's good for people's mental health. But every business

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<v Speaker 1>has to make a decision, you know, is it better

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<v Speaker 1>for for their employees to remain distant. Some businesses are

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<v Speaker 1>requiring vaccines. If the FDA formally approves the vaccine, some

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<v Speaker 1>businesses and hospitals will mandate that as part of employment.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's a very dynamic landscape. When you see the

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<v Speaker 1>school struggling and clashing sometimes with unions or with uh

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<v Speaker 1>their state or local officials, a lot of schools are saying, wait,

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<v Speaker 1>we we need to have this mask role and we're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing course roll in and all of this. What do

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<v Speaker 1>you believe needs to be done in order for schools

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<v Speaker 1>to open up safely. Well, I certainly take care of

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<v Speaker 1>the number of teachers and professors that are very reluctant

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<v Speaker 1>to go back into the classroom. And obviously you've got

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<v Speaker 1>some classrooms with open windows, and you've got some classrooms

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<v Speaker 1>where everyone is vaccinated, including um, you know, perhaps the

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<v Speaker 1>eighteen or twenty year olds in college. So it's really

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<v Speaker 1>very variable. I think there are many kinds of masks.

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<v Speaker 1>The N ninety pods are quite effective, most people don't

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<v Speaker 1>wear them, or of access to that. I do think

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<v Speaker 1>each of these is one component. So open windows, pods,

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<v Speaker 1>masking will prevent some degree of transmission. It's not perfect

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<v Speaker 1>by any means. We've always said the virus our souls

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<v Speaker 1>are much tinier than the pores of the mask. But

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<v Speaker 1>I do think all of these things are an effort

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<v Speaker 1>to make everyone feel better that they're trying to do

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<v Speaker 1>something that will probably slow the spread. Inevitably, the way

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<v Speaker 1>most pandemics work is that eventually everyone gets exposed, which

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<v Speaker 1>I think will happen, and so you want to be

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<v Speaker 1>as protected as can be, which certainly would be vaccinations

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<v Speaker 1>at this point, although not perfect, and we need to

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<v Speaker 1>look at other medications that may be helpful with treatment.

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<v Speaker 1>The FDA really needs to be more aggressive with that.

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<v Speaker 1>Hey real quickly, just got about five seconds here. You

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<v Speaker 1>I've heard you mentioned a couple of times a delta vaccine.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that likely before the end of the year. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't think so. If they're working on it, I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's going to be easier to distribute the current manufacturing

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<v Speaker 1>of the first of the alpha basically eventually we may

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<v Speaker 1>need to do that, and I think it's good to

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<v Speaker 1>develop that technology anyway. Well, always good to check. I agree,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think many of the medical profession will concur

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<v Speaker 1>with you. Ian. Thank you so much. Have a good,

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<v Speaker 1>safe weekend. Dr Ian las Bader, his crilitical professor of

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<v Speaker 1>Medicine at n YU Land, going joining us on the

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<v Speaker 1>phone in Long Island. And just as a reminder global

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<v Speaker 1>tracker that we have here at Bloomberg virus cases topping

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<v Speaker 1>two hundred five point six million, deaths passing four point

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<v Speaker 1>three million, and when it comes to the vaccine, more

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<v Speaker 1>than four point six billion doses have been administered. You're

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<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So I've been

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<v Speaker 1>referencing this story as we talked with Dr Ian lous

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<v Speaker 1>Bader over at n y U Land going. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>amid all the headlines of rising virus cases and hospitalizations

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<v Speaker 1>due to the delta variant, it's very easy to lose

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<v Speaker 1>sight of the fact that COVID vaccines are really working.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a Business Week story now online and on the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg terminal. So let's dig into it with Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week editor Joel Weber. He's with us on the remote

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<v Speaker 1>access line in Massachusetts, along with Bloomberg News US healthcare

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<v Speaker 1>reporter Cynthia Kon. She's on the phone in New Jersey,

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<v Speaker 1>Zee and Cynthia. I want to start with you because

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<v Speaker 1>you've been following this. Uh, I feel like you're on

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<v Speaker 1>your soapbox a little bit, but in a good way. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks for having me, Carol. I think the reality is here.

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<v Speaker 1>The data is really confusing for people. There's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of data coming out really quickly, and there's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of anecdotal stories coming out. And I see this in

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<v Speaker 1>my own life. I think people are hearing about breakthrough

0:12:21.760 --> 0:12:25.120
<v Speaker 1>infections in their own community, among their friends and family,

0:12:25.600 --> 0:12:27.560
<v Speaker 1>and they don't know how to make sense of these

0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:29.560
<v Speaker 1>some of these data sets that have been you know,

0:12:29.640 --> 0:12:32.439
<v Speaker 1>made visualizations online showing how rarit is to get a

0:12:32.440 --> 0:12:35.080
<v Speaker 1>breakthrough intraction. So I think people are really confused. And

0:12:35.120 --> 0:12:37.920
<v Speaker 1>I think adding and actually probably feeding that narrative is

0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:40.920
<v Speaker 1>really the fact the CDC hasn't come out with a

0:12:40.960 --> 0:12:45.120
<v Speaker 1>lot of high level data and information about breakthrough infections

0:12:45.160 --> 0:12:48.000
<v Speaker 1>that might help people, you know, get a real handle

0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:51.560
<v Speaker 1>on what we're seeing here. And so there's just this

0:12:51.760 --> 0:12:56.080
<v Speaker 1>overarching seeing that we continue to talk about with doctors

0:12:56.200 --> 0:12:58.200
<v Speaker 1>um when we report on this, and it's that the

0:12:58.240 --> 0:13:01.480
<v Speaker 1>COVID vaccine it doesn't have the ability to stop infection

0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:04.080
<v Speaker 1>the way other vaccines might. You might be thinking of

0:13:04.120 --> 0:13:07.320
<v Speaker 1>the measles vaccine, which prevented you from getting measles entirely,

0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:10.839
<v Speaker 1>but that's not what the COVID vaccine has the capability

0:13:10.880 --> 0:13:13.960
<v Speaker 1>to do, particularly in the face of delta. It does

0:13:14.000 --> 0:13:16.880
<v Speaker 1>have the ability from what we've seen from breakthrough data,

0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:20.240
<v Speaker 1>it weakens the virus and so people's experiences don't lead

0:13:20.280 --> 0:13:24.040
<v Speaker 1>hospitalization and death, and that's critical. That's very critical from

0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:27.680
<v Speaker 1>a public health perspective. But I think people, to be fair,

0:13:27.920 --> 0:13:30.440
<v Speaker 1>they don't get thick in the first place, so it's

0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:34.200
<v Speaker 1>not it's it's there's no You can see why people

0:13:34.200 --> 0:13:36.800
<v Speaker 1>are frustrated by this confusing messaging, and I think the

0:13:36.880 --> 0:13:39.679
<v Speaker 1>CDC needs to come out and give more data about

0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:42.520
<v Speaker 1>breakthrough infections and who's more at risk, because I think

0:13:42.600 --> 0:13:45.400
<v Speaker 1>that's the story that people are really you know, waiting here.

0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:47.199
<v Speaker 1>It's so important, Jill, you know, that's one of the

0:13:47.240 --> 0:13:48.920
<v Speaker 1>things I've been thinking about. It do feel like that

0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:51.880
<v Speaker 1>we're losing some of those important data points that really

0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:54.280
<v Speaker 1>kept us well informed, and especially now that we're dealing

0:13:54.280 --> 0:13:56.880
<v Speaker 1>with the delta variant well, and I think it speaks

0:13:56.880 --> 0:14:00.480
<v Speaker 1>to just like there's there's new information that people who

0:14:00.480 --> 0:14:03.800
<v Speaker 1>are interested in and and and Cynthia just like bringing

0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:06.400
<v Speaker 1>back to the CDC there. I mean, what do we

0:14:06.440 --> 0:14:09.480
<v Speaker 1>know about how they're even tracking breakthrough infections, because as

0:14:09.480 --> 0:14:12.520
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg reported earlier in the year, that was not even

0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:14.160
<v Speaker 1>something that they were keeping an eye on for a

0:14:14.200 --> 0:14:19.080
<v Speaker 1>long time. So they decided only to to track hospitalized

0:14:19.120 --> 0:14:22.360
<v Speaker 1>breakthrough patients. And I don't know if that was because

0:14:22.400 --> 0:14:25.720
<v Speaker 1>of the resources involved in tracking all breakthrough cases, but

0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:28.000
<v Speaker 1>I was really surprised to learn when I did another

0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:31.520
<v Speaker 1>story on sequencing in the US, how there wasn't a

0:14:31.560 --> 0:14:34.320
<v Speaker 1>ton of connectivity in the system. So if a person

0:14:34.360 --> 0:14:37.080
<v Speaker 1>shows up and gets a COVID test, they may not

0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:39.240
<v Speaker 1>be asked if they had had COVID before. They might

0:14:39.320 --> 0:14:41.560
<v Speaker 1>not be asked if they had been vaccinated, for example,

0:14:41.560 --> 0:14:43.880
<v Speaker 1>and so that critical information may not even get to

0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:46.480
<v Speaker 1>the labs where they're sequencing the virus. That may have

0:14:46.560 --> 0:14:49.760
<v Speaker 1>to be pieced together in an epidemiology report or study

0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:52.680
<v Speaker 1>later on, But at that point we're losing weeks in

0:14:52.760 --> 0:14:55.200
<v Speaker 1>terms of figuring out if if we have an increasing

0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:57.640
<v Speaker 1>number of people who are vaccinated and getting the virus.

0:14:57.880 --> 0:15:00.800
<v Speaker 1>So that's problematic to begin with, and that of sort

0:15:00.800 --> 0:15:03.040
<v Speaker 1>of points to this lack of a cohesive system we have.

0:15:03.560 --> 0:15:05.480
<v Speaker 1>But the CDC said they were just going to focus

0:15:05.520 --> 0:15:08.720
<v Speaker 1>on the hospitalized patients because those were the most critical

0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:11.400
<v Speaker 1>in terms of understanding, Okay, this is the most virulent

0:15:12.240 --> 0:15:13.960
<v Speaker 1>type of virus and this is what we need to

0:15:13.960 --> 0:15:17.040
<v Speaker 1>protect against. But even within the public health communities who

0:15:17.040 --> 0:15:19.960
<v Speaker 1>have been watching this closely, there's frustration that we haven't

0:15:20.000 --> 0:15:23.400
<v Speaker 1>gotten lots of reports about the hospitalized patients to begin with,

0:15:23.480 --> 0:15:25.720
<v Speaker 1>so we don't necessarily have a lot of updates on

0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:29.480
<v Speaker 1>were those people, say I don't know, had other home

0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:31.880
<v Speaker 1>moor abilities or when did they get their vaccines. That's

0:15:31.880 --> 0:15:34.360
<v Speaker 1>a big question. Does community wane over time and so

0:15:34.440 --> 0:15:37.520
<v Speaker 1>are these some of the earliest vaccinated patients for example.

0:15:37.600 --> 0:15:41.080
<v Speaker 1>And then lastly, people argued to me that if we

0:15:41.120 --> 0:15:44.320
<v Speaker 1>don't look at break through infections before their hospitalized cases,

0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:47.840
<v Speaker 1>we're missing a really big opportunity to make some deuce

0:15:47.880 --> 0:15:50.520
<v Speaker 1>some interventions or stop this, or have knowledge sooner when

0:15:50.560 --> 0:15:52.840
<v Speaker 1>it's when it's more important for us to know what's

0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:56.240
<v Speaker 1>going on with breakthroughs overall than just the sickst patients.

0:15:56.240 --> 0:15:58.880
<v Speaker 1>So that's another important thought that maybe we do need

0:15:58.920 --> 0:16:00.960
<v Speaker 1>to double down now and say, Okay, this is happening,

0:16:00.960 --> 0:16:03.360
<v Speaker 1>we need to allocute resources and makes us a priority

0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:05.640
<v Speaker 1>to study it. And how much how much does the

0:16:05.760 --> 0:16:11.920
<v Speaker 1>FDA taking into account um breakthrough stuff, break through infections

0:16:12.680 --> 0:16:15.640
<v Speaker 1>and delta for that matter, and what they're doing because obviously,

0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:17.680
<v Speaker 1>and we talked about this a little bit before on

0:16:17.720 --> 0:16:20.640
<v Speaker 1>the show this week, you know, there's especially when it

0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:24.680
<v Speaker 1>comes to kids, like that f d A approval um

0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:27.800
<v Speaker 1>and vaccine hesitancy that that seems to be like sort

0:16:27.800 --> 0:16:30.560
<v Speaker 1>of the next shoe to drop in terms of, uh,

0:16:30.600 --> 0:16:34.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, public health messaging here in terms of getting

0:16:34.120 --> 0:16:37.960
<v Speaker 1>younger children vaccinated you mean, Joel, Yeah, exactly, and like

0:16:38.000 --> 0:16:41.080
<v Speaker 1>even just having the FDA stamp of approval in terms

0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:46.600
<v Speaker 1>of overcoming people who have hesitancy. Still, yes, so there's

0:16:46.600 --> 0:16:49.080
<v Speaker 1>some critical things that should happen soon, which is full

0:16:49.080 --> 0:16:52.440
<v Speaker 1>approval from the FDA. And then to the next stat

0:16:52.520 --> 0:16:55.240
<v Speaker 1>is really the approval for the vaccine under twelves. I

0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:58.280
<v Speaker 1>think there's a five to eleven cohort and then um

0:16:58.320 --> 0:17:00.880
<v Speaker 1>two to five I think are the breakdowns in terms

0:17:00.920 --> 0:17:02.960
<v Speaker 1>of how these have been studied, and so those are

0:17:02.960 --> 0:17:05.320
<v Speaker 1>really important they're they're going to happen this fall. I

0:17:05.640 --> 0:17:08.760
<v Speaker 1>have to say that f D is a really um

0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:12.840
<v Speaker 1>runs a little bit more conservative in terms of drug approvals.

0:17:12.880 --> 0:17:15.160
<v Speaker 1>They may take more time, and I don't think that's

0:17:15.160 --> 0:17:18.040
<v Speaker 1>a bad thing. I know that people are really, you know,

0:17:18.119 --> 0:17:21.960
<v Speaker 1>really want these vaccines for children, for example, perhaps full approval,

0:17:22.160 --> 0:17:24.600
<v Speaker 1>and I'm sure they're working around the clock. I think

0:17:24.640 --> 0:17:26.720
<v Speaker 1>at the end of the day, the FDA taking a

0:17:26.760 --> 0:17:29.639
<v Speaker 1>little more time to do that is probably not a

0:17:29.680 --> 0:17:31.639
<v Speaker 1>bad thing because I think one of the parts of

0:17:31.640 --> 0:17:33.720
<v Speaker 1>the narrative is that this has been hurried. When you

0:17:33.720 --> 0:17:36.159
<v Speaker 1>look at the anti vac sentiment, that's some of this

0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:38.959
<v Speaker 1>that's that comes up a lot. And so the FDA

0:17:39.640 --> 0:17:41.800
<v Speaker 1>is doing things how they want to do it, and

0:17:41.840 --> 0:17:44.200
<v Speaker 1>I think they should resist the pressure to speed things

0:17:44.320 --> 0:17:47.720
<v Speaker 1>up just for the sake of having something that you know,

0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:50.119
<v Speaker 1>they have to use, that follow the process and protocols,

0:17:50.119 --> 0:17:52.880
<v Speaker 1>and they've they've actually been out of step with other

0:17:52.920 --> 0:17:55.439
<v Speaker 1>regulators and drugs in the past, and it's been to

0:17:55.520 --> 0:17:59.199
<v Speaker 1>the safety of the process. So I think that's not

0:17:59.240 --> 0:18:02.560
<v Speaker 1>necessarily a bad thing. But to be fair, these these

0:18:02.560 --> 0:18:05.359
<v Speaker 1>pediatric trials are huge, so it's gonna it may be,

0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:07.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, a little bit longer before we get that data,

0:18:07.800 --> 0:18:09.240
<v Speaker 1>but I think in the grand scheme of things, it

0:18:09.400 --> 0:18:12.320
<v Speaker 1>is coming really soon. It'll be this fall. So I

0:18:12.400 --> 0:18:14.480
<v Speaker 1>think that is really up positive. You gotta say the

0:18:14.520 --> 0:18:16.479
<v Speaker 1>last line in your story and for those who might

0:18:16.520 --> 0:18:18.840
<v Speaker 1>be hesitant about getting the vaccine, if you think it's

0:18:18.880 --> 0:18:21.560
<v Speaker 1>been bad, it could get much worse. And you cite

0:18:21.600 --> 0:18:25.320
<v Speaker 1>somebody in an immunology professor at Louisa Louisiana State University

0:18:25.880 --> 0:18:28.040
<v Speaker 1>in treport who said, I would almost guarantee that we

0:18:28.119 --> 0:18:30.359
<v Speaker 1>have more variants that come and they may be worse

0:18:30.400 --> 0:18:33.040
<v Speaker 1>than delta. That's why it's so critical to get immunized.

0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:35.919
<v Speaker 1>I mean, if we don't get to hurt immunity, the

0:18:35.960 --> 0:18:37.760
<v Speaker 1>potential for it to get much worse is out there

0:18:37.800 --> 0:18:42.240
<v Speaker 1>and just quickly, um Cynthia. Yeah. And the thing is

0:18:42.400 --> 0:18:45.840
<v Speaker 1>the unvaccinated population is how these variants emerged. So the

0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:48.760
<v Speaker 1>act of not being vaccinated isn't just about not spreading

0:18:48.800 --> 0:18:51.399
<v Speaker 1>COVID to your neighbors are getting it yourself. It's also

0:18:51.440 --> 0:18:54.000
<v Speaker 1>about not becoming a breeding ground for a variant that

0:18:54.040 --> 0:18:58.880
<v Speaker 1>becomes more dangerous than delta. So getting vaccinated protects your neighbor, yourself,

0:18:59.160 --> 0:19:02.640
<v Speaker 1>your household, and the rest of society when it comes

0:19:02.680 --> 0:19:06.720
<v Speaker 1>to not creating new variants in this ecosystem. So that

0:19:06.880 --> 0:19:08.680
<v Speaker 1>is the most important thing we can do. It's the

0:19:09.359 --> 0:19:11.639
<v Speaker 1>beyond masking and other things that we can do that

0:19:11.680 --> 0:19:15.119
<v Speaker 1>our public health measures. But but as an individual, getting

0:19:15.119 --> 0:19:18.880
<v Speaker 1>a vaccine is really powerful for preventing whatever is coming

0:19:18.880 --> 0:19:22.120
<v Speaker 1>behind delta. Yep, back to thinking about your community. Cynthia Coons,

0:19:22.200 --> 0:19:24.680
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much, US healthcare reporter at Bloomberg News.

0:19:24.720 --> 0:19:27.400
<v Speaker 1>Check out her story on the Bloombergain at Bloomberg dot com.

0:19:27.440 --> 0:19:30.040
<v Speaker 1>Toe Webber, have a good weekend, editor of Bloomberg Business

0:19:30.040 --> 0:19:34.439
<v Speaker 1>Week from Massachusetts. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

0:19:34.520 --> 0:19:38.960
<v Speaker 1>Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio.

0:19:39.440 --> 0:19:41.960
<v Speaker 1>All right, there's a fascinating and thoughtful column that you

0:19:42.000 --> 0:19:44.879
<v Speaker 1>can find at Bloomberg dot com also on the Bloomberg Terminal.

0:19:45.119 --> 0:19:47.840
<v Speaker 1>It asks a question, what could possibly unite a drug

0:19:47.880 --> 0:19:51.520
<v Speaker 1>developer with a manufacturer of electric cars. It's all in

0:19:51.560 --> 0:19:56.880
<v Speaker 1>the narrative, so writes Bloomberg Opinion column that our next guest,

0:19:56.960 --> 0:19:59.600
<v Speaker 1>Max Neeson. He is biotech format and healthcare columnist at

0:19:59.600 --> 0:20:02.679
<v Speaker 1>Blomberg Opinion. You wrote it with our Bloomberg Liam at

0:20:02.720 --> 0:20:05.080
<v Speaker 1>Denning and Max training us on the phone in New

0:20:05.119 --> 0:20:08.000
<v Speaker 1>York City. Max. It's a great column. It's a thoughtful column,

0:20:08.000 --> 0:20:10.560
<v Speaker 1>and it really does make you stop and think. Tell

0:20:10.640 --> 0:20:17.000
<v Speaker 1>us about the comparison on Maderna and Tesla. Sure, absolutely, so,

0:20:17.680 --> 0:20:21.520
<v Speaker 1>you know there's obvious comparison is that both of them,

0:20:21.600 --> 0:20:25.040
<v Speaker 1>um have have added you know, more than a hundred

0:20:25.080 --> 0:20:27.560
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars in Testl's case, several hundreds of billions of

0:20:27.600 --> 0:20:31.280
<v Speaker 1>dollars um in value in a very short amount of

0:20:31.320 --> 0:20:35.960
<v Speaker 1>time um. And and that has people calling Maderna, including

0:20:36.000 --> 0:20:39.520
<v Speaker 1>some anos, the Tesla biotech just in that it's added

0:20:39.520 --> 0:20:45.480
<v Speaker 1>a tremendous amount of value. Yeah, um in it um

0:20:45.800 --> 0:20:48.280
<v Speaker 1>it Also it's sort of being valued like a platform,

0:20:48.640 --> 0:20:51.760
<v Speaker 1>not just for its enorvously successful COVID vaccine, but for

0:20:51.880 --> 0:20:53.960
<v Speaker 1>what comes next. So that sort of prompted us to

0:20:54.040 --> 0:20:57.400
<v Speaker 1>take a closer work and what sort of you can

0:20:57.480 --> 0:20:59.800
<v Speaker 1>learn by by looking at the two of them together. Well,

0:20:59.840 --> 0:21:01.560
<v Speaker 1>for Tesla, for a long time, I mean we had

0:21:01.640 --> 0:21:05.359
<v Speaker 1>so many conversations here on Bloomberg with analysts, investors. It

0:21:05.480 --> 0:21:07.400
<v Speaker 1>was really a wait and see and there was lots

0:21:07.400 --> 0:21:10.440
<v Speaker 1>of promises about what it would be for a long time,

0:21:10.480 --> 0:21:13.119
<v Speaker 1>and it you really had to have faith in the company.

0:21:13.119 --> 0:21:16.760
<v Speaker 1>And it feels like I get the comparison because obviously

0:21:16.760 --> 0:21:18.920
<v Speaker 1>we get Macderna. We talked about it daily. The run

0:21:18.960 --> 0:21:21.760
<v Speaker 1>up that we've seen has been tremendous. Um a little

0:21:21.760 --> 0:21:23.840
<v Speaker 1>bit of a pullback this week, but certainly a lot

0:21:24.200 --> 0:21:28.040
<v Speaker 1>so far in one. And yet it's it's got to

0:21:28.080 --> 0:21:30.560
<v Speaker 1>be about more than just a COVID vaccine in order

0:21:30.600 --> 0:21:35.280
<v Speaker 1>for those expectations to play out. Yeah, that's what's so

0:21:35.440 --> 0:21:38.960
<v Speaker 1>interesting about It remains a wait and see, but it's

0:21:38.960 --> 0:21:41.439
<v Speaker 1>a wait and see that that to some extent is materialized.

0:21:41.480 --> 0:21:44.200
<v Speaker 1>You know, they continue to grow sales. If people look

0:21:44.200 --> 0:21:47.119
<v Speaker 1>out over time, you know they're multiple is very very

0:21:47.200 --> 0:21:48.800
<v Speaker 1>high right now. But if you look at it a

0:21:48.800 --> 0:21:51.560
<v Speaker 1>few years hour and it gets more reasonable. Macderna is

0:21:51.680 --> 0:21:56.080
<v Speaker 1>the opposite. It looks reasonable now because they're generating enormous

0:21:56.119 --> 0:21:58.920
<v Speaker 1>sales from from their COVID vaccine, but go a few

0:21:59.000 --> 0:22:02.040
<v Speaker 1>years later or when those sales are expected to prime

0:22:02.480 --> 0:22:06.840
<v Speaker 1>one hopes as the pandemic receives and the multiple suddenly

0:22:06.840 --> 0:22:10.480
<v Speaker 1>looks very high. Indeed, because it's going to be quite

0:22:10.560 --> 0:22:14.679
<v Speaker 1>some time before the rest of its pipeline arrives, So

0:22:14.760 --> 0:22:17.680
<v Speaker 1>you really have to believe that you have our name

0:22:18.200 --> 0:22:22.080
<v Speaker 1>technology can can succeed in a variety of other ways.

0:22:22.560 --> 0:22:25.000
<v Speaker 1>Um and in fact, you know, at a higher rate

0:22:25.320 --> 0:22:29.320
<v Speaker 1>and with better commercial potential than other drunk companies usually

0:22:29.359 --> 0:22:32.280
<v Speaker 1>managed to justify its evaluation. You know, it just as

0:22:32.320 --> 0:22:35.160
<v Speaker 1>a reminder to Max that deep down, you know, when

0:22:35.200 --> 0:22:37.440
<v Speaker 1>you get away from all the headlines and you forget

0:22:37.480 --> 0:22:39.360
<v Speaker 1>all the things that Elon Musk does and is out

0:22:39.400 --> 0:22:42.600
<v Speaker 1>there that at you know, at its heart, Tesla has been,

0:22:43.160 --> 0:22:46.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, a startup tech company at least at its roots, right,

0:22:46.240 --> 0:22:49.440
<v Speaker 1>and it had to play out and an innovator, a disruptor,

0:22:49.480 --> 0:22:51.520
<v Speaker 1>and so you know, you had to kind of wait

0:22:51.560 --> 0:22:54.280
<v Speaker 1>for it to grow into its expectations. And as you

0:22:54.320 --> 0:22:57.199
<v Speaker 1>say with Maderna, it's in many ways now going to

0:22:57.240 --> 0:22:59.679
<v Speaker 1>go back to being a traditional biotech company, right with

0:22:59.680 --> 0:23:04.240
<v Speaker 1>prom his promises, investments, investments, and then ultimately maybe it'll

0:23:04.240 --> 0:23:06.520
<v Speaker 1>pay off long term. One of the things that you

0:23:06.560 --> 0:23:07.960
<v Speaker 1>get to into your story that I think is so

0:23:08.000 --> 0:23:11.080
<v Speaker 1>important for our audience. You talk about TAM the total

0:23:11.160 --> 0:23:14.760
<v Speaker 1>addressable market. That's key in understanding both of these stories

0:23:16.359 --> 0:23:18.960
<v Speaker 1>you are. So with Tons, that's always been the thing

0:23:19.080 --> 0:23:23.920
<v Speaker 1>that justifies it's ever expanding valuation, um suggesting that it's

0:23:23.920 --> 0:23:27.600
<v Speaker 1>going to get into new businesses, some more plausible than others,

0:23:27.920 --> 0:23:31.200
<v Speaker 1>which is why, you know, even even though it certainly

0:23:31.240 --> 0:23:34.240
<v Speaker 1>make grow into its vallerations still very rich and the

0:23:34.440 --> 0:23:36.440
<v Speaker 1>still have to make a lot of assumptions to get there.

0:23:36.880 --> 0:23:39.639
<v Speaker 1>But with mcderna, it's a little bit of a different

0:23:39.720 --> 0:23:43.320
<v Speaker 1>story in that you know, there there's certainly many other

0:23:43.440 --> 0:23:46.400
<v Speaker 1>drug markets that can break into, but it's already sort

0:23:46.400 --> 0:23:49.800
<v Speaker 1>of being valued at the same level as a you know,

0:23:49.840 --> 0:23:53.119
<v Speaker 1>mature drug companies that have you know, big tens of

0:23:53.160 --> 0:23:57.760
<v Speaker 1>billions in recurring revenue, not sort of just pandemic specific revenue.

0:23:58.080 --> 0:23:59.880
<v Speaker 1>So so it has a long way to go into

0:24:00.119 --> 0:24:02.720
<v Speaker 1>it can actually prove that it can generate that on

0:24:02.720 --> 0:24:05.520
<v Speaker 1>an ongoing basis, So to be very interesting to watch

0:24:05.600 --> 0:24:08.520
<v Speaker 1>if you can actually you know, fulfilling and maybe expand

0:24:08.560 --> 0:24:10.960
<v Speaker 1>its market in a way that that sort of lives

0:24:11.000 --> 0:24:13.760
<v Speaker 1>up to what people are valuing. I mentioned you wrote

0:24:13.760 --> 0:24:16.920
<v Speaker 1>this column with ar Liam Denning, who follows the tech

0:24:16.960 --> 0:24:19.119
<v Speaker 1>space and names like Tesla in particular, what some of

0:24:19.119 --> 0:24:21.600
<v Speaker 1>the conversations went back and forth between you two about

0:24:22.000 --> 0:24:26.080
<v Speaker 1>how it was the same, how it was different. Sure,

0:24:26.200 --> 0:24:28.840
<v Speaker 1>so it really it really was because it was just

0:24:29.480 --> 0:24:32.360
<v Speaker 1>going back through the history of of how Tesla got

0:24:32.400 --> 0:24:35.720
<v Speaker 1>to its valuation and then how Maderna did. Um it

0:24:35.840 --> 0:24:38.320
<v Speaker 1>Elk sort of goes back to that that tam story

0:24:38.480 --> 0:24:41.720
<v Speaker 1>where um, you know, at every point you find for

0:24:42.440 --> 0:24:44.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, some sort of justification to take things further

0:24:45.000 --> 0:24:47.720
<v Speaker 1>and further. And then what we got to was, you know,

0:24:48.400 --> 0:24:51.520
<v Speaker 1>people keep finding a way to expand that for Tesla,

0:24:51.640 --> 0:24:54.199
<v Speaker 1>but but they may have reached a bit of a

0:24:54.240 --> 0:24:57.679
<v Speaker 1>morbal limit with Maderna. Just looking at the different industries

0:24:57.720 --> 0:25:00.919
<v Speaker 1>and and how I think people for yeah, um, in

0:25:00.960 --> 0:25:04.120
<v Speaker 1>the context of the pandemic, how well did you fail?

0:25:04.160 --> 0:25:06.960
<v Speaker 1>Youre prone? The drug process not the drug making process

0:25:07.040 --> 0:25:09.600
<v Speaker 1>is not drunk R and D. You know, most products

0:25:09.640 --> 0:25:13.840
<v Speaker 1>you you investigate end up failing. So I'm really did

0:25:14.040 --> 0:25:16.880
<v Speaker 1>um make for a really interesting conversation and I hope

0:25:16.880 --> 0:25:19.080
<v Speaker 1>column as well. Yeah, it's a great read. We were

0:25:19.080 --> 0:25:20.640
<v Speaker 1>talking about it in the newsroom and I'm so glad

0:25:20.640 --> 0:25:22.960
<v Speaker 1>you were able to come on and share your thoughts

0:25:22.960 --> 0:25:25.080
<v Speaker 1>with us with our audience. Max Neison, thank you so

0:25:25.160 --> 0:25:27.560
<v Speaker 1>much of a great weekend. Max is biotech format and

0:25:27.600 --> 0:25:36.119
<v Speaker 1>healthcare columnist A Blooberg opinion Bro mac Journal. Now, but

0:25:36.240 --> 0:25:40.400
<v Speaker 1>you let me drive? Oh no, no, no no, no, oh

0:25:40.480 --> 0:25:44.560
<v Speaker 1>night please, I'll do the right drivel. I want to drive,

0:25:47.320 --> 0:25:59.240
<v Speaker 1>Just drive, baby, It's good. Questions to dry. Yeah, this

0:25:59.800 --> 0:26:07.040
<v Speaker 1>is the drive to the globe. D TikTok. We're just

0:26:07.119 --> 0:26:09.680
<v Speaker 1>about ten half minutes away from wrapping up not only

0:26:09.680 --> 0:26:12.119
<v Speaker 1>the trading day but the trading week, and we are

0:26:12.119 --> 0:26:15.480
<v Speaker 1>seeing stocks bouncing around little change. Is very tight trading range.

0:26:15.840 --> 0:26:18.040
<v Speaker 1>It does feel like everybody's headed to the beach. Uh

0:26:18.359 --> 0:26:21.640
<v Speaker 1>for uh the week and the weekend already, let's bring

0:26:21.640 --> 0:26:25.440
<v Speaker 1>in the Rebecca Corbyn, founder and CEO at Corbin Advisors. Uh.

0:26:25.480 --> 0:26:28.080
<v Speaker 1>They are a strategic consultancy and research firms. She joins

0:26:28.160 --> 0:26:30.520
<v Speaker 1>us once again on the phone from Farmington, Connecticut. Rebecca,

0:26:30.600 --> 0:26:34.119
<v Speaker 1>how are you? Where is everybody? Hi? Carol, Well, mostly

0:26:34.200 --> 0:26:37.520
<v Speaker 1>on vacation. You know, we're essentially wrapping up earning season

0:26:37.600 --> 0:26:39.760
<v Speaker 1>and this has been a tough year. Hopefully they're taking

0:26:39.760 --> 0:26:42.400
<v Speaker 1>a little break. If you work for Carlisle, you get

0:26:42.400 --> 0:26:45.960
<v Speaker 1>the week off next week. So, uh, we're seeing that happen.

0:26:46.040 --> 0:26:49.800
<v Speaker 1>We talked with them this week, UM human capital management

0:26:49.840 --> 0:26:54.120
<v Speaker 1>story exactly exactly. Hey, you are constantly checking in on

0:26:54.160 --> 0:26:58.880
<v Speaker 1>what's on the mind of investors, UM. What are you hearing? Sure? Well,

0:26:58.920 --> 0:27:01.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, heading into the order, a lot of optimism,

0:27:01.880 --> 0:27:07.160
<v Speaker 1>big expectations for significant beats that was handily delivered to them.

0:27:07.200 --> 0:27:11.520
<v Speaker 1>We just did a pulse pole yesterday. Global institutional investors

0:27:12.040 --> 0:27:19.200
<v Speaker 1>UM more are more concerned about UM COVID UH, they're

0:27:19.240 --> 0:27:24.040
<v Speaker 1>raising delta and landed variants, concerns around the VACU resistant population,

0:27:24.520 --> 0:27:27.880
<v Speaker 1>and almost forty or more concerned around inflation than they

0:27:27.880 --> 0:27:30.560
<v Speaker 1>were just a month prior. So, you know, there's a

0:27:30.600 --> 0:27:34.120
<v Speaker 1>lot of UM sentiment. Obviously, we have very strong earnings,

0:27:34.119 --> 0:27:37.639
<v Speaker 1>we had guides that were raised UM. But heading into

0:27:37.840 --> 0:27:40.000
<v Speaker 1>Q three and Q four UM, there is a lot

0:27:40.000 --> 0:27:42.840
<v Speaker 1>of concern heading into that with regard to COVID inflation,

0:27:43.000 --> 0:27:46.520
<v Speaker 1>other supply chain disruption. Still, hey, wait, I want to

0:27:46.520 --> 0:27:49.560
<v Speaker 1>make sure I understand this. So this pole yesterday global investors,

0:27:49.600 --> 0:27:54.240
<v Speaker 1>you're saying that fifty percent are more concerned, are more

0:27:54.240 --> 0:27:58.080
<v Speaker 1>concerned about okay, and more concerned about inflation than they

0:27:58.080 --> 0:28:01.760
<v Speaker 1>were a month ago. Yeah, and last last quarter we

0:28:01.840 --> 0:28:07.080
<v Speaker 1>registered the highest level of concern around inflation. Okay, And

0:28:07.080 --> 0:28:08.399
<v Speaker 1>I do feel like you know, once we get through

0:28:08.440 --> 0:28:11.560
<v Speaker 1>those earnings periods, everybody is a little bit lost, especially

0:28:11.600 --> 0:28:14.600
<v Speaker 1>because there are so many questions about COVID at there,

0:28:14.640 --> 0:28:17.320
<v Speaker 1>what might be next for FED policy. It's just funny,

0:28:17.320 --> 0:28:19.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, markets like it when it's sure right when

0:28:19.080 --> 0:28:22.240
<v Speaker 1>we're either gangbusters or we're falling apart, because policy is

0:28:22.240 --> 0:28:24.439
<v Speaker 1>then very clear, and that's not where we are right

0:28:24.480 --> 0:28:27.159
<v Speaker 1>now now. And I think we also, you know, we

0:28:27.240 --> 0:28:30.720
<v Speaker 1>talked last time around the dynamics that are happening. We're

0:28:30.760 --> 0:28:34.399
<v Speaker 1>seeing record levels of demand. There there is no shortage

0:28:34.400 --> 0:28:38.480
<v Speaker 1>of demand for product right now. However, once one of

0:28:38.520 --> 0:28:41.760
<v Speaker 1>the factors that is changing relative to what we were

0:28:41.800 --> 0:28:45.600
<v Speaker 1>saying is the consumer. And the consumer as we saw UM,

0:28:45.920 --> 0:28:50.880
<v Speaker 1>consumer sentiment plunged today to the lowest level since UM.

0:28:50.960 --> 0:28:53.840
<v Speaker 1>They're feeling it in their wallet. And as we talked

0:28:53.840 --> 0:28:57.120
<v Speaker 1>about last time, right the supply chain, that cost inflation

0:28:57.200 --> 0:29:00.280
<v Speaker 1>has to move through the supply chain. The last person

0:29:00.360 --> 0:29:03.520
<v Speaker 1>holding the hot potato is the consumer because there's no

0:29:03.560 --> 0:29:05.880
<v Speaker 1>one else to pass the cost too. And so they're

0:29:05.920 --> 0:29:08.840
<v Speaker 1>going to speak UM loudly, and you know, we should

0:29:08.880 --> 0:29:11.480
<v Speaker 1>be listening to whether they're continuing to spend or not. Yeah,

0:29:11.480 --> 0:29:13.640
<v Speaker 1>it was interesting that consumer sentiment number two that they

0:29:13.640 --> 0:29:17.360
<v Speaker 1>were worried. I'm just looking back. Uh, percent of respondents

0:29:17.440 --> 0:29:20.520
<v Speaker 1>expected decline in the jobless rate. Only percent of respondents

0:29:20.560 --> 0:29:22.640
<v Speaker 1>expected to cline in the jobless rate. That's down from

0:29:22.680 --> 0:29:27.120
<v Speaker 1>fifty the prior month. Despite record job openings, consumers also

0:29:27.160 --> 0:29:30.600
<v Speaker 1>became decidedly downbeat about their income prospects. The gauge of

0:29:30.640 --> 0:29:34.080
<v Speaker 1>expected personal finances fell to a seven year low. That's

0:29:34.120 --> 0:29:38.360
<v Speaker 1>pretty dramatic. Yeah, And you know what's interesting is we

0:29:38.440 --> 0:29:42.160
<v Speaker 1>saw a massive increase in the number of companies talking

0:29:42.160 --> 0:29:45.760
<v Speaker 1>about labor or wage inflation. I should say it was

0:29:45.800 --> 0:29:51.160
<v Speaker 1>actually higher than those talking about commodity inflation, which is significant.

0:29:51.440 --> 0:29:53.360
<v Speaker 1>And those are things that stay stay with the company

0:29:53.360 --> 0:29:57.360
<v Speaker 1>for a while. So okay, so that's out there. That's

0:29:57.800 --> 0:30:00.840
<v Speaker 1>one narrative. Right. We've had an interesting trading week. We've

0:30:00.880 --> 0:30:03.560
<v Speaker 1>been in a very tight range. It's been lower volume.

0:30:03.560 --> 0:30:05.840
<v Speaker 1>It does feel like everybody has gone away for a

0:30:05.880 --> 0:30:07.640
<v Speaker 1>little bit, and maybe they're all just waiting for Jackson

0:30:07.680 --> 0:30:10.080
<v Speaker 1>Holland to see what the latest shoe might be to

0:30:10.200 --> 0:30:12.840
<v Speaker 1>drop from the Federal Reserve. They'll most think that they're

0:30:12.880 --> 0:30:16.160
<v Speaker 1>not going to change their narrative. Speaking of narratives, UM

0:30:16.200 --> 0:30:19.560
<v Speaker 1>a lot, how you know. And then we keep having

0:30:19.600 --> 0:30:22.120
<v Speaker 1>record after record in the s and P five. Here

0:30:22.120 --> 0:30:23.640
<v Speaker 1>we are again, and I think we're gonna be apt.

0:30:24.000 --> 0:30:25.960
<v Speaker 1>What is it if we get a record close today,

0:30:25.960 --> 0:30:29.360
<v Speaker 1>it's forty eight record closes this year. How do you

0:30:29.680 --> 0:30:32.120
<v Speaker 1>balance that against some of the nervousness we're seeing the market?

0:30:32.160 --> 0:30:34.920
<v Speaker 1>Does that set up the equity market at least for

0:30:35.200 --> 0:30:38.560
<v Speaker 1>some kind of pullback at some point? Well, you know,

0:30:38.600 --> 0:30:42.120
<v Speaker 1>there there's so much um, there's so much capital out there.

0:30:43.000 --> 0:30:46.080
<v Speaker 1>Uh So you know, I I just I can't imagine

0:30:46.200 --> 0:30:48.640
<v Speaker 1>a time where the equity markets you know, sure we'll

0:30:48.680 --> 0:30:52.960
<v Speaker 1>go through you know kind of potential like crashes and

0:30:53.000 --> 0:30:56.120
<v Speaker 1>then obviously fits and starts here and there, but you know,

0:30:56.160 --> 0:31:00.400
<v Speaker 1>over time, the equity markets will continue to drive higher. Um.

0:31:00.480 --> 0:31:02.120
<v Speaker 1>You know, there is a lot of concern around the

0:31:02.120 --> 0:31:05.400
<v Speaker 1>said policy. So there's windows of opportunity when you can

0:31:05.480 --> 0:31:08.400
<v Speaker 1>raise interest rates where it feels okay. And and the

0:31:08.440 --> 0:31:11.920
<v Speaker 1>benefit of raising interest rates UM is actually for the

0:31:11.960 --> 0:31:16.280
<v Speaker 1>opportunity that when we get into a position of you know,

0:31:16.360 --> 0:31:20.600
<v Speaker 1>economic deceleration, you have a lever to pull and that

0:31:20.680 --> 0:31:25.400
<v Speaker 1>lever sits very comfortably with the consumer. Um, we really

0:31:25.480 --> 0:31:28.040
<v Speaker 1>don't have those levers right now, and we're and we're

0:31:28.080 --> 0:31:31.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, the the window is closing because of the

0:31:31.360 --> 0:31:35.240
<v Speaker 1>massive inflation that's hitting the consumer. So I mean, we're

0:31:35.280 --> 0:31:37.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, I would just say that we're really out

0:31:37.040 --> 0:31:40.720
<v Speaker 1>of wack on this cycle. COVID very very quick to

0:31:40.840 --> 0:31:47.760
<v Speaker 1>go into companies adapted extremely diligently and agile e learning

0:31:47.800 --> 0:31:51.680
<v Speaker 1>from the g SC right great Financial Crisis, and now

0:31:51.680 --> 0:31:55.440
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing this sling shot into you know, growth momentum

0:31:55.560 --> 0:31:58.320
<v Speaker 1>somewhere it needs to you know, even out and get

0:31:58.360 --> 0:32:02.240
<v Speaker 1>to normalization UM. But there's still discussion around you know,

0:32:02.400 --> 0:32:07.000
<v Speaker 1>strong growth into In fact, estimates that have been provided

0:32:07.040 --> 0:32:09.880
<v Speaker 1>for Q three and Q four still show continued growth

0:32:10.040 --> 0:32:13.680
<v Speaker 1>above UM five year averages. And you know, in terms

0:32:13.720 --> 0:32:15.440
<v Speaker 1>of that, that's because there's a lot of stimulus out

0:32:15.480 --> 0:32:18.520
<v Speaker 1>there right at this point. I mean, there's still tons

0:32:18.680 --> 0:32:21.000
<v Speaker 1>of you know, and that's actually what's creating the labor

0:32:21.000 --> 0:32:25.720
<v Speaker 1>shortage to a lot of extent um you know, the

0:32:26.320 --> 0:32:28.719
<v Speaker 1>and and that's going to increase, so you know, in

0:32:28.840 --> 0:32:31.560
<v Speaker 1>terms of inflation, and we talked about this last and

0:32:31.600 --> 0:32:34.959
<v Speaker 1>there are going to be inflationary costs that are not transitory,

0:32:35.040 --> 0:32:40.280
<v Speaker 1>and those are really going to be around um, you know, wages, salaries.

0:32:40.400 --> 0:32:43.520
<v Speaker 1>It is an employee and employees market right now, highest

0:32:43.720 --> 0:32:48.960
<v Speaker 1>level of turnover um ever recorded. And every single company,

0:32:49.080 --> 0:32:53.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, eighty two percent of companies on on earnings

0:32:53.040 --> 0:32:58.760
<v Speaker 1>talked about labor issues. No, it's really you know exactly,

0:32:58.840 --> 0:33:00.920
<v Speaker 1>it's important. We keep hearing it. And you know, this

0:33:00.960 --> 0:33:02.200
<v Speaker 1>is why I think we're waiting to see some of

0:33:02.240 --> 0:33:04.920
<v Speaker 1>the data points when we get into September October. If

0:33:04.960 --> 0:33:07.320
<v Speaker 1>the world reopens, if kids go back to school, if

0:33:08.040 --> 0:33:10.120
<v Speaker 1>people who maybe couldn't go back to their jobs can

0:33:10.120 --> 0:33:12.160
<v Speaker 1>now go back, maybe we get to see some truer

0:33:12.240 --> 0:33:14.600
<v Speaker 1>numbers and maybe those jobs get filled. But I guess

0:33:14.640 --> 0:33:16.800
<v Speaker 1>time will tell, especially it's a little tricky here with

0:33:16.840 --> 0:33:20.800
<v Speaker 1>the delta variant. Having said that, the outlook for next week,

0:33:20.840 --> 0:33:23.520
<v Speaker 1>what are you expecting another quiet week at this point, again,

0:33:23.640 --> 0:33:27.480
<v Speaker 1>just counting down to Jackson Hall. Absolutely, I mean earning

0:33:27.520 --> 0:33:31.280
<v Speaker 1>season is essentially completed. We do get from that. We

0:33:31.320 --> 0:33:34.520
<v Speaker 1>will hear from retailers, right, We'll hear from the retail sectors. Yeah,

0:33:34.640 --> 0:33:36.840
<v Speaker 1>they're they're off cycle though, right, so they're kind of

0:33:36.840 --> 0:33:40.800
<v Speaker 1>on their own cycle based on the retail um segment.

0:33:40.880 --> 0:33:43.440
<v Speaker 1>But you know, it is going to be quiet, and

0:33:43.480 --> 0:33:45.240
<v Speaker 1>I think people are going to investors are going to

0:33:45.360 --> 0:33:48.680
<v Speaker 1>digest this. You know, clearly with the with the raisors

0:33:48.680 --> 0:33:51.360
<v Speaker 1>and guidance, there is still confidence heading into the back house.

0:33:51.680 --> 0:33:54.480
<v Speaker 1>But margins are are are likely to be impacted. And

0:33:54.520 --> 0:33:56.479
<v Speaker 1>so we're going to you know, we're really going to

0:33:56.520 --> 0:33:59.239
<v Speaker 1>see what happens with inflation as it works through its

0:33:59.240 --> 0:34:02.280
<v Speaker 1>system and as those you know, the kind of box

0:34:02.280 --> 0:34:05.120
<v Speaker 1>stops here. I think one thing that we need to

0:34:05.120 --> 0:34:08.839
<v Speaker 1>be um looking out for is a the margin um

0:34:08.920 --> 0:34:13.440
<v Speaker 1>would be you know, sequential sequential growth or deceleration, not

0:34:13.560 --> 0:34:15.640
<v Speaker 1>year over year. That's a good point because that makes

0:34:15.640 --> 0:34:17.440
<v Speaker 1>a big difference because a year over year we know

0:34:17.520 --> 0:34:19.480
<v Speaker 1>or last year we know what was happening. Hey, Rebecca,

0:34:19.480 --> 0:34:21.400
<v Speaker 1>I have a great week. And Rebecca Corbin Chi's founder

0:34:21.440 --> 0:34:24.440
<v Speaker 1>and chief executive officer of Corbyn Advisors joining us on

0:34:24.480 --> 0:34:27.520
<v Speaker 1>the phone from Farmington, Connecticut. They are a strategic consultancy

0:34:27.880 --> 0:34:31.799
<v Speaker 1>at research firm. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.

0:34:31.920 --> 0:34:35.520
<v Speaker 1>Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud or Bloomberg dot com

0:34:35.560 --> 0:34:37.200
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0:34:37.200 --> 0:34:39.799
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0:34:39.840 --> 0:34:44.799
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