WEBVTT - Surveillance: Bloomberg Global Business Forum

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily

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<v Speaker 1>we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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<v Speaker 1>and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. This

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<v Speaker 1>is a joy as we've spoken with Roger Ferguson, a

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<v Speaker 1>former vice chairman with Cass Sunstein of Harvard on impeachment.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the moments of of this September we speak

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<v Speaker 1>to David Lipton now, who I believe his title as

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<v Speaker 1>of this I'm looking at my watch and I think

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<v Speaker 1>we've got like a two hour tick as acting Managing director,

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<v Speaker 1>David Lipton joins us. Now certainly without question, Dr Lipton,

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<v Speaker 1>the American representative to the UH International Monetary Fund, to

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<v Speaker 1>get an update, and it is truly a day of

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<v Speaker 1>celebration for the International Monetary Fund. Krystallina Georgieva of Bulgaria,

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<v Speaker 1>truly a frontline academic, will join the i m F.

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<v Speaker 1>Is it in the matter of ours? Dr Lipton? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>This week is a big week of transition for US.

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<v Speaker 1>We have Christine Legard departed, will be celebrating her this weekend.

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<v Speaker 1>We expect Krystalline and Georgieva to be approved by our

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<v Speaker 1>decision body, the Executive Board, in a matter of hours,

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<v Speaker 1>and she'll be Managing director starting Monday morning. It's an

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<v Speaker 1>extraordinary transition of geography and and tone. Is is well

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<v Speaker 1>UH the former leader of the World Bank, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>esteemed an international economics for years. What does the shift

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<v Speaker 1>like within the institution? Is it just business as usual? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>we're very good at transitions. This happens quite a bit.

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<v Speaker 1>The institution is used to it ready to help her

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<v Speaker 1>take the helm. You know, you're right. She has vast experience.

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<v Speaker 1>Not only is she from Europe, but her experience across

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<v Speaker 1>emerge and developing economies in her work UH in in

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<v Speaker 1>in UH, the in Europe and at the World Bank,

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<v Speaker 1>I think gives her a huge reservoir of support from

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<v Speaker 1>our membership, really very broadly emerging market countries correctly say

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<v Speaker 1>this is the first UH managing director from an emerging

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<v Speaker 1>market Bulgaria. So everyone's very excited and I'm looking forward

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<v Speaker 1>to this transition myself. I remember the first rate Bulgarian

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<v Speaker 1>mathematics of the Koran School of New York University in

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<v Speaker 1>the academics just extraordinary. I find it fascinating here within

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<v Speaker 1>the tone of modern capitalism, like Angela Merkel coming out

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<v Speaker 1>of East Germany that uh, the crystallity Gurgeva came out

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<v Speaker 1>of the Carl Marks Higher Institute of Economics. Man, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>there's this is a real shift. This is thesis antithesis

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<v Speaker 1>and now we're going to have synthesis. It's really Paul,

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<v Speaker 1>Please David, So as a new managing director comes in, David,

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<v Speaker 1>what do you think is the one of the key

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<v Speaker 1>challenges facing the I m F Right now? You know,

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<v Speaker 1>we see UH risks to growth in the short term,

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<v Speaker 1>and we've had a period of slowing growth in the

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<v Speaker 1>core economies for a number of years. After all, just

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<v Speaker 1>two years ago global growth that's closer to four percent,

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<v Speaker 1>and now it's closer to three percent. So in this

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<v Speaker 1>era where there's questions about integration and interconnectedness and multilateralism,

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<v Speaker 1>the challenges to get our members to cooperate to ward

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<v Speaker 1>off the risks, to try to secure continued growth UH

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<v Speaker 1>and to promote faster growth in the future. So I

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<v Speaker 1>think it will be a growth orientation achieved through international cooperation.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the threats to that growth orientation is uncertainty

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<v Speaker 1>that we have in the global economy, principally from trade

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<v Speaker 1>issues and uncertainty about global trade. How does that play

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<v Speaker 1>into kind of the mandate at the I m F. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>we do see trade tensions and certainty around that as

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<v Speaker 1>as the number one risk. But but you know and

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<v Speaker 1>and that it is important that the US and China

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<v Speaker 1>sit down and resolve this through dialogue. And I think

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<v Speaker 1>that will mean China having to deal with some of

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<v Speaker 1>the shortcomings in policies that are UM causing spillovers that

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<v Speaker 1>are causing discontent in other countries around the world. But

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<v Speaker 1>that said, there are other uncertainties to Brexit is a

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<v Speaker 1>huge uncertainty UM. There are geopolitical uncertainties in the in

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<v Speaker 1>in the tensions with Iran, various others, and so if

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<v Speaker 1>uncertainty is UH allowed to continue, this slowdown in trade,

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<v Speaker 1>which is bringing a slowdown in investment, may become a

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<v Speaker 1>crippling problem for the global economy. It's not our base case,

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<v Speaker 1>our base cases for continued growth UM and it really

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<v Speaker 1>is important that the world work together to try to

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<v Speaker 1>address these uncertainties and not have unforced errors. Let's get

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<v Speaker 1>out front of the meeting that you will have here

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<v Speaker 1>in a number of weeks, will release the World Economic Outlook,

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<v Speaker 1>the Green Book, the Stability. I can't remember the color

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<v Speaker 1>of the books right now. You keep changing them, I mean, David,

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<v Speaker 1>But the bottom line is what our audience wants to know,

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<v Speaker 1>our global Wall Street audience wants to know. Is the

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<v Speaker 1>second derivative Right now, I look at Korean export important

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<v Speaker 1>numbers that German numbers the other day. I'm not asking

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<v Speaker 1>the acting managing director to have these memorized, but you're

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<v Speaker 1>very aware of the GAMA, the convexity accelerations that are

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<v Speaker 1>out there right now. How urgent is it. I think

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<v Speaker 1>that the way to think about this is that, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>with the trade tensions, we're seeing trade investment and manufacturing slowing,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's very broad. But at the same time, consumer sentiment,

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<v Speaker 1>consumer spending, and service sector is very strong. And so

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<v Speaker 1>the question is what will happen in the future. Will

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<v Speaker 1>the um difficulties in the business sector eventually impair consumer

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<v Speaker 1>sentiment and slow things down, or will the consumer strength

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<v Speaker 1>and service sector strength eventually help pull business up. That's

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<v Speaker 1>possible if we're able to reduce acieties for the future.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think the uh. You know. To me, the

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<v Speaker 1>bottom line is growth is slowing, risk of growing and

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<v Speaker 1>policy makers need to get going and at rhymes and

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<v Speaker 1>it's an easy to remember. So well, David Lipton with

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<v Speaker 1>US of the International Monetary Fund, the acting Managing director

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<v Speaker 1>here as we celebrate Christallina Orgava of Bulgaria will become

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<v Speaker 1>the new Managing director, replacing Christine Legard. H Christine Leguard

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<v Speaker 1>will become the President of the European Center Bank. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>not gonna ask you to get out front of negative

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<v Speaker 1>interest rates in the ECB. That would be rude, but

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<v Speaker 1>I can I ask you. I can ask you, David,

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<v Speaker 1>the questions of our Buenos Aires office. They have a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of questions of how the i m F will

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<v Speaker 1>handle the original experiment that is Argentine. Uh, political, economic,

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<v Speaker 1>even social economics. What's the next step for the i

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<v Speaker 1>m F with an ever dynamic Argentina. You know, Argentina's

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<v Speaker 1>situation right now is extremely complex. They've had a shock

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<v Speaker 1>based on the political results of a of a primary

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<v Speaker 1>and in that setting have had to take some very

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<v Speaker 1>strong measures to try to calm things down. And I

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<v Speaker 1>think they have calmed markets down. So our job in

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<v Speaker 1>this setting is to help them get through this period,

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<v Speaker 1>give them advice, work towards an eventual UH resumption of

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<v Speaker 1>a relationship between of some kind of financial relationship with them,

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<v Speaker 1>which may have to wait a while. UM, but we're

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<v Speaker 1>we're in discussion, they are. The Minister is going to

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<v Speaker 1>be in Washington having discussions with our team shortly, and

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<v Speaker 1>we'll be continuing those discussions at the the annual meetings

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<v Speaker 1>that you mentioned that come up in later in October.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, we're trying to help Argentina deal with a

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<v Speaker 1>very difficult situation, and they're working hard to do that. David,

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<v Speaker 1>do you think the political will exists in Argentina today

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<v Speaker 1>to move that country or it's the rude questions Argentines

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<v Speaker 1>want to stabilize their country and resume growth. I think

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<v Speaker 1>everyone shares that it's not our business to try to

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<v Speaker 1>UH divine the political path forward. We can't do that.

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<v Speaker 1>But we're standing ready to help whichever UH side wins

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<v Speaker 1>the presidential election and help them find the best way

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<v Speaker 1>forward for the sake of the Argentine people. The hallmark

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<v Speaker 1>of the modern I m F is transparency of data.

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<v Speaker 1>What do you do in any given nation where you

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<v Speaker 1>haven't quoted in this case Argentine and Paso in a

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<v Speaker 1>black market set with a greater depreciation, how does the

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<v Speaker 1>institution like you deal with the multiple markets of currency

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<v Speaker 1>or yield day to look, there are places where data

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<v Speaker 1>are are a big problem, like Venezuela where the data

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<v Speaker 1>flow has stopped, but that's not the case in Argentina.

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<v Speaker 1>We've dealt with countries that have parallel markets in many,

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<v Speaker 1>many circumstances before. That's not a big challenge, you know.

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<v Speaker 1>There they've had to put on capital controls in the

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<v Speaker 1>midst of the market developments that they've had. And when

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<v Speaker 1>you have capital controls, of course some people try to

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<v Speaker 1>UMU look for another way to move money out of

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<v Speaker 1>the country, and parallel rates arise. I think that's something

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<v Speaker 1>that we can monitor and we can help them over

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<v Speaker 1>time deal with UH. You know. I think the bigger

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<v Speaker 1>the bigger issues there are how to calm the markets

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<v Speaker 1>and stabilize the situation so that there can be UH

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<v Speaker 1>an administration after the election that makes longer term plans

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<v Speaker 1>and policies that can help bring stability, lasting stability and

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<v Speaker 1>growth to Argentina. You mentioned that it's a very complex

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<v Speaker 1>issue obviously it's there any sense of timing based upon

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<v Speaker 1>your discussions with the administration of maybe how this might

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<v Speaker 1>play out. Now, it's too soon to be able to

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<v Speaker 1>say that. I mean we we were having discussions with them.

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<v Speaker 1>Those will be continuing in Washington this week and then

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<v Speaker 1>again during the meetings. You know their election is coming

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<v Speaker 1>up later in October. It's it's just, uh, not something

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<v Speaker 1>one can foresee. If you're just joining us a few

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<v Speaker 1>more minutes with David Lipton of the International Monetary FUNE,

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<v Speaker 1>of course out of Wesleyan and at Harvard Sterling Economics

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<v Speaker 1>over the years, and I always, David, love to go

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<v Speaker 1>back with you to your tenure with Jeffrey Sachs on Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>Could we go you have a visceral I would suggest

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<v Speaker 1>you and Professor Sachs have more of a visceral understanding

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<v Speaker 1>of the Russian economic experiment out of than anyone breathing,

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<v Speaker 1>and give us an update on Putin economics in the

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<v Speaker 1>strength of Russia right now. He had a difficult Moscow election.

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<v Speaker 1>Granted that's a one off, but give us an update

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<v Speaker 1>on Russia. Is a frontier economy and e M economy

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<v Speaker 1>or a g nation. The Russian economy has been managed

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<v Speaker 1>very well from the standpoint of macroeconomic stability. They've been

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<v Speaker 1>very careful about their maintaining a sound budget. As a result,

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<v Speaker 1>they have almost no UH federal debt UH. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>President Putin has given strong mandates to his Central Bank

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<v Speaker 1>Governor Naviolina to make sure that inflation is under control.

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<v Speaker 1>That's not the issue they have as as a result

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<v Speaker 1>of there the oil situation and the economic situation and

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<v Speaker 1>the sanctions, they have a low growth rate. When we

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<v Speaker 1>project their growth rate forward, we see it as lower

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<v Speaker 1>than or roughly the same as Europe in per capita terms.

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<v Speaker 1>Now that what that means is we are not foreseeing

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<v Speaker 1>Russian standards of living catching up or going in the

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<v Speaker 1>direction of catching up to Europe. That's a problem because

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<v Speaker 1>their their their standard living is lower than Europe, and

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<v Speaker 1>they should be able, they should be aspiring to raise

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<v Speaker 1>that standard of living. So I think the challenge for

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<v Speaker 1>Russia is the broader long term business model question. What

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<v Speaker 1>is their strength where they they are a country with

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<v Speaker 1>great UH education and great technological prowess. The question is

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<v Speaker 1>how to build a system that has a stronger private

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<v Speaker 1>sector drive in the adoption and use of technology in

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<v Speaker 1>ways that will bring prosperity to Russia. That's the challenge.

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<v Speaker 1>I think they understand that, but that's the challenge. But

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<v Speaker 1>this is fascinating because with you and Jeff Sex at

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<v Speaker 1>the nascent capitalism of the collapse of the Soviet Union,

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<v Speaker 1>you go to the era I'm going to say, the

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<v Speaker 1>Oligarcs or whatever that means. How do you perceive Russian

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<v Speaker 1>capitalism forward? Do they move beyond the early models of

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<v Speaker 1>the nineties and the two thousand's. Well, I don't know

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<v Speaker 1>quite how they get from where they are to what

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<v Speaker 1>I'm talking about, because I think it does mean UH

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<v Speaker 1>having a system in which there's a more vibrant private

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<v Speaker 1>economy with true competition and UH corporations that are able

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<v Speaker 1>to UH compete with global counterparts and be modern. And

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<v Speaker 1>it's I think it's not happening sufficiently at this point,

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<v Speaker 1>and to me that the challenge for them is to

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<v Speaker 1>find a way to have a more vibrant, vigorous, dynamic

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<v Speaker 1>private sector. David, are we seeing direct private investment in

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<v Speaker 1>Russia today? Just give us a sense of our companies,

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<v Speaker 1>Western companies investing in Russia. I think it's modest and

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<v Speaker 1>more modest than before the the UH conflict in Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 1>which led to sanctions and great hesitancy on the part

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<v Speaker 1>of untry companies from a number of Western countries uneasy

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<v Speaker 1>about their part participation. David Lipton, thank you so much.

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<v Speaker 1>We look forward to all of us at Bloomberg to

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<v Speaker 1>your meetings here in He's I'm gonna say this to

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<v Speaker 1>the acting managing director do one more time as we

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<v Speaker 1>truly celebrate the changing of the guard at the UH

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<v Speaker 1>International Monetary Phone. Kristolini or gave A will take over

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<v Speaker 1>as Managing director of course Frontline Economics from Bulgaria. Dr Lipton,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You

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