1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:07,320 Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. 3 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 1: All right, here we go from throwing out, I'm sitting. 4 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 3: It's a cash touchdown. 5 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,920 Speaker 2: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they 6 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 2: go to sin. 7 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:23,720 Speaker 1: That's incredible being bank, small bank. 8 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 3: I like to make money. All right, this is the 9 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 3: ultimate combine if you want to. 10 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 1: And we are underway. Welcome into the Action Network Podcast 11 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:40,480 Speaker 1: presented by bet MGM, the King of sports books. It's 12 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:45,839 Speaker 1: time now for NFL Best Bets NFL Conference Championship Sunday. 13 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 1: We've got Brandon Anderson here, Anthony Dbundo and Grant Nefer 14 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:53,559 Speaker 1: for more playoff football picks. If you haven't done so already, 15 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 1: you can find the video version of our podcast on 16 00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. Please like the video. Also, 17 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 1: somebscribe to the channel to find our other great content 18 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:05,840 Speaker 1: as we lead up to the Super Bowl and also 19 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:10,319 Speaker 1: this coming Sunday. Once you hit subscribe, you can get 20 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:13,160 Speaker 1: access to everything. It'll pop right up on your screen 21 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: when we're live. It's great and of course, on the 22 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:18,960 Speaker 1: listening side of things, five star ratings and reviews on 23 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, wherever you listen to your podcasts are 24 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 1: greatly appreciated. You can find Grant, Dabundo Brandon individually in 25 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 1: the free award winning Action Network app. You can find 26 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 1: our other contributors in the Action Network Discord server, including 27 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 1: this episode. In the description, you'll find a link there. 28 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 1: Chat it up with some of the experts, and it's 29 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 1: a great way to form your own gambling community. Divisional 30 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 1: Round three and three for the podcast. All in all 31 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:48,559 Speaker 1: of the season one, two and eighty seven. With only 32 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 1: two games this week, the guys are once again bringing 33 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 1: two best bets to the table. We will start with 34 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson. We will go AFC, then NFC work ourselves 35 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:02,520 Speaker 1: chronological as the Sunday winds down. So let's go to 36 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 1: Baltimore Kansas City. Brandon's first pick, what do you got? 37 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:08,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna go with the under, but I'm gonna 38 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 4: take the second half under twenty two and a half. Really, 39 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:15,080 Speaker 4: for all the talk that we're rightfully getting about Pa 40 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 4: Mahomes Tamar Jackson, when it comes down to in this game, 41 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:21,360 Speaker 4: I just trust the defenses more. I trust the defensive 42 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 4: coordinators more so. Kansas City coming off probably their best 43 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 4: offensive game of the season against the Bills, right, but 44 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 4: the things they did against Buffalo. I don't think are 45 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 4: gonna work here. They won deep Mbs actually cut passes 46 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 4: for the first time in his life. Baltimore is like 47 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 4: top three against the deep ball, so I don't think 48 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:39,639 Speaker 4: that's gonna happen here. Kansasity o in the middle of 49 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 4: the field. They ran a ton of twelve and thirteen personnel, 50 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:45,200 Speaker 4: lots of tight ends out there. Why because Buffalo is 51 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:48,720 Speaker 4: literally out of linebackers. Nobody left. Baltimore is one of 52 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 4: the best linebacking crew in the league. So Buffalo is 53 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:54,920 Speaker 4: playing nickel against them. I think Baltimore can play base there. 54 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 4: I don't see the stuff that worked for the Chiefs 55 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 4: working here. And Joe Toney, great guard, looks like he's 56 00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:03,639 Speaker 4: probably not gonna play here. The other guard, Tray Smith, 57 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:05,800 Speaker 4: has yet to practice this week. I don't think that's 58 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 4: a thing, but man, I would not want to have 59 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 4: even him less than full not great. The interior is 60 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 4: the strength there. Their tackles have not been good all season, 61 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 4: Like Jamar Taylor just got another false start, just hearing 62 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:19,640 Speaker 4: his name talked about on this podcast, Like the man's 63 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 4: a walking penalty. So what happens if you get into 64 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 4: your pressure? We got Mike McDonald all that defense, the 65 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 4: creative pass rush I think he saw against Miami Cover zero. 66 00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 4: Baltimore doesn't do a lot of cover zero kind of 67 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 4: all out blitz there, but mixing that in here and there. 68 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 4: Getting Mahomes under pressure normally not the thing you want. 69 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 4: Do you want to blitz Pat Mahomes with this year? 70 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 4: Mahomes is twenty seventh and with offense and Dvaway under 71 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 4: pressure that's just not been their go too because he 72 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 4: doesn't have trust in his receivers to beat that regularly. 73 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 4: And if you look for his career, the way you 74 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 4: beat Mahomes is you force him to hang out to 75 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 4: the ball longer and have to turn into playmaking because 76 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 4: he's getting pressure coming at him. If he has under 77 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 4: three seconds a throw over ninety percent, win right straight up. 78 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 4: If it's three seconds or more, basically fifty to fifty, 79 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 4: they're gonna win the game. So that's how you get 80 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 4: after the offense. I don't know that I really can 81 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 4: buy the Chiefs offense is just back quote unquote, just 82 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 4: because maybeat Miami, the beat Buffalo. Half the defense are 83 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 4: in the hospital. So I don't know I'm ready to 84 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:25,839 Speaker 4: go there against such a good Baltimore defense, But I 85 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 4: don't know that I trust the Ravens offense to have 86 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 4: this huge game. Either they're gonna run. We all know 87 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 4: they're gonna run. The great run team. Chiefs are among 88 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:36,279 Speaker 4: the bottom of the league against the run run DVA 89 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 4: run stop win rate bottom five and six there. But 90 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 4: Chiefs are a top five pass d by DV away 91 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:46,240 Speaker 4: And honestly, we know how I feel about Tamar Jackson. 92 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:48,719 Speaker 4: The pass offense just hasn't quite passed the eye test 93 00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 4: for me as a top top play there. Look, Lamar Jackson, 94 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 4: we just watched against Houston last week. I know the 95 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 4: final score said, dude, look like a rookie against the 96 00:04:57,560 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 4: blitz for an entire half of football, Like, oh my god, 97 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:00,719 Speaker 4: out they're blitzing me. 98 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:01,240 Speaker 3: What do I do? 99 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 4: I don't know, I'm getting sacked again. Steve Spagnolo is 100 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 4: gonna have some answers and some tests for Lamar. And 101 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:09,280 Speaker 4: it looked like Lamar solved the blitz in the second 102 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:11,479 Speaker 4: half because he did because of what he used to do. 103 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 4: They just kept blitzing every play. Spagnola's gonna mix it up, 104 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:16,719 Speaker 4: He's gonna blitz, He's gonna drop he's gonna change over 105 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 4: the coverages and now you've got Lamar Jackson guessing the 106 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 4: way they solved is real easy. How do you solve 107 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:23,360 Speaker 4: a blitz to get the ball out faster? Like we 108 00:05:23,400 --> 00:05:25,760 Speaker 4: all know that watching, but you can't do that every 109 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 4: time if the coverages are changed. So I think Speg's 110 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 4: can get after Lamar a little bit. I just feel 111 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:33,479 Speaker 4: like there's a lot of avenues here for things to 112 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:37,280 Speaker 4: go low and uh weather factor always in the play. 113 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 4: I don't want to do the weather report. We'll let 114 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:41,479 Speaker 4: the Bundo check in there, but possible wins here definitely 115 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 4: help an under. And then why second half under your 116 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 4: first time about on the podcast a lot this year 117 00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:50,720 Speaker 4: Chiefs second half unders seventeen and two for the season, 118 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 4: Like it looks like it has to be an error 119 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:55,160 Speaker 4: on the paper. If you had just bet Chiefs second 120 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:57,600 Speaker 4: half under all season one hundred bucks a bet, you're 121 00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 4: up thirteen hundred and seventy three dollars just from one 122 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 4: the season of doing that, and Kansas City in the 123 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:06,560 Speaker 4: second half the season five point two points allowed per 124 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:08,360 Speaker 4: game in the second half, Like that has to be 125 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:10,280 Speaker 4: a type all right, But the thing is they're only 126 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:14,040 Speaker 4: scoring six point six under a touchdown themselves. Kansas City's 127 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:18,480 Speaker 4: defense has allowed over one touchdown only four times all season. 128 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:21,839 Speaker 4: That includes seven points in both second halfs combined in 129 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 4: the playoffs so far. If you go back to the 130 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 4: last seven games, twenty six points allowed in the second half. 131 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:30,279 Speaker 4: That includes a Bengals game, Dolphins game, and two Buffalo 132 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:32,840 Speaker 4: Bills games. So this is just what the script has 133 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 4: been all season. It's a tough game to read, but 134 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 4: I lean under, and because of the second half Chiefs 135 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:39,599 Speaker 4: trend so strong, I'm just gonna narrow it to the 136 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:42,880 Speaker 4: second half under Chiefs Ravens second half under twenty two 137 00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 4: and a half. 138 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:46,360 Speaker 1: Okay, and that right now at bet MGM juice to 139 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 1: the under minus one fifteen. So it might be one 140 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:51,600 Speaker 1: you want to play sooner rather than later to get 141 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:53,839 Speaker 1: the best number. Twenty two and a half. Last week 142 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 1: against Buffalo total in the second half, it's twenty one. 143 00:06:57,000 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 1: Chiefs did score fourteen, but they were so efficient in 144 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,640 Speaker 1: that game. They had five less minutes of time of 145 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:07,839 Speaker 1: possession with their efficiency. But a different animal here with 146 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson in that running game. Speaking of which Lamar 147 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 1: Jackson dubundo. Your first bet is surrounded by the quarterback. 148 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:16,760 Speaker 2: In Boltim, Yeah, I'm gonna go with Lamar Jackson under 149 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:19,480 Speaker 2: two eight and a half pass yards has come down 150 00:07:19,480 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 2: a couple of yards. Still think it's okay here in 151 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 2: this game AFC Championship. I think both offenses are gonna 152 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 2: have a bunch of success running the ball, and Baltimore 153 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 2: is probably gonna use some of the stuff that I 154 00:07:31,840 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 2: thought was really interesting last week, which was not using 155 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 2: Lamar as just a scrambler, but using him as part 156 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 2: of designed run offenses, which we hadn't really seen a 157 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 2: lot in the regular season, but we saw them use 158 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:43,400 Speaker 2: more of in this game. And we saw the Bills 159 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:45,960 Speaker 2: use you know, Allen as a runner and use that 160 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 2: advantage to create numbers of advantages against the Chiefs defensive front, 161 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:51,680 Speaker 2: which has not been good against the run. As Brandon 162 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:55,320 Speaker 2: was discussing twenty sixth in run DVOA bottom eight and 163 00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:58,320 Speaker 2: epa per rush allowed. They can get overrun here, and 164 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 2: I think, you know, the one thing that they've really 165 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:04,080 Speaker 2: struggled with defensively is when teams have gone two backers 166 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 2: against them, two running backs in the backfield, they have 167 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 2: been really bad against the run as well. So I 168 00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 2: think the Ravens can throw a lot of different looks 169 00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:14,000 Speaker 2: at them and really create a ton of success on 170 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 2: the ground, and I think it's going to limit the 171 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 2: mount that Lamar is going to have to pass explosively. 172 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 2: You mentioned it last week, you know they played from 173 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 2: the front, which I think they're going to be doing 174 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 2: again in this matchup. I would lean toward Baltimore if 175 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:26,880 Speaker 2: I had to bet the game as well, because I 176 00:08:26,880 --> 00:08:30,160 Speaker 2: do think they have some real advantages. But if they're ahead, 177 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:32,199 Speaker 2: they're going to lean conservatively and lean on the run 178 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 2: game and be successful at it to the point where 179 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:36,439 Speaker 2: I think Mahomes will get his on his side of 180 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:38,880 Speaker 2: the ball, but the Ravens are going to have the 181 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:41,600 Speaker 2: lead be running efficiently. And I bet the last two 182 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:44,440 Speaker 2: games under just because I think this chief secondary has 183 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 2: been undervalued all year. They're really good at taking away 184 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 2: the top receiver sneed's been excellent, and they can kind 185 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 2: of roll coverage over the middle if you know the 186 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:53,199 Speaker 2: Ravens are going to go two tight ends to running backs, 187 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 2: which I actually think we might see a decent amount 188 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 2: of in this game, especially if Andrews is back in 189 00:08:57,360 --> 00:09:00,480 Speaker 2: the lineup, which he's trending toward playing could see like 190 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 2: an Andrews Hill Edwards and likely lineup with is one receiver. 191 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 2: I think they're going to go very narrow and try 192 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 2: to lean on the power run. Where the Chiefs have 193 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 2: really had issues this year is stopping quarterback runs and 194 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 2: stopping power runs. So I think it's going to be 195 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:16,480 Speaker 2: effective for them to run the ball unless Lamar will 196 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:18,960 Speaker 2: go come in under his number, trusting the Chiefs defense 197 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:21,199 Speaker 2: and look, like you said, Brandon, like Lamar. It was 198 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 2: good against the Blitz in the second half last week, 199 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 2: But generally speaking, when you think of what's the best 200 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:28,160 Speaker 2: way to stop Lamar Jackson, it's been the Blitz. And 201 00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 2: I think he's gonna be able to run a bunch 202 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 2: and use his legs to get out of those situations, 203 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:36,440 Speaker 2: not necessarily you know, throwing the ball explosively down the field. 204 00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:39,120 Speaker 2: So I like the under for Lamar, and I think 205 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:41,960 Speaker 2: it's going to be right. You know, we were talking 206 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 2: off air, Brandon and I, and because we're on opposite 207 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 2: sides of the total, I don't necessarily think that a 208 00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 2: Lamar pass yards under is you know, indicative that we're 209 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:51,760 Speaker 2: going to get an under in the game. The weather 210 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:55,520 Speaker 2: is certainly trending the wrong direction for overbetters because the 211 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 2: models are still uncertain about this storm event. But there 212 00:09:57,679 --> 00:10:00,400 Speaker 2: is going to be some precipitation coming through from a 213 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:03,720 Speaker 2: low pressure system in Del Marvis somewhere. How much it 214 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 2: stays around for the whole game is still uncertain, but 215 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 2: certainly at the start of the game looks like it's 216 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:11,320 Speaker 2: gonna be some rain. So I am gonna go with 217 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:13,719 Speaker 2: the Lamar under instead of my over as my best 218 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:14,440 Speaker 2: bet for this game. 219 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 1: Can I ask quickly? Just Devil's advocate and I thought 220 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:20,160 Speaker 1: Likely was a good fill in tight end. But with 221 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:22,360 Speaker 1: Andrews back, does that it all make you think that 222 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:24,439 Speaker 1: maybe they'll look for Andrews more middle of the field 223 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 1: for yards passing. 224 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:28,920 Speaker 2: I mean, certainly like he adds an element of explosiveness 225 00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:30,720 Speaker 2: over the middle for them, But I think Likely was 226 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 2: doing just fine in that role. I agree, So I 227 00:10:33,520 --> 00:10:36,080 Speaker 2: don't know how much more utility they get out of 228 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:36,560 Speaker 2: having both. 229 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:39,960 Speaker 1: Fair Enough, speaking of our friend Lamar Jackson, who is 230 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 1: likely to win the MVP of the National Football League, Brandon, 231 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 1: we didn't do this last week, we should do it 232 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:49,760 Speaker 1: this week because Lamar advanced He's in the conference Championship. 233 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:53,240 Speaker 1: I want to shout out M Torres with two s's, 234 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:55,920 Speaker 1: two r's, two s's. M Torres left a five star 235 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 1: review on the podcast a few weeks back, going after 236 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:05,040 Speaker 1: Brandon in his review for the Constant Lamar Jackson Slander. 237 00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 1: And here he is Conference title game at home as 238 00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:12,720 Speaker 1: a favorite, granted against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. But 239 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:15,199 Speaker 1: and by the way, I'm Torres. You want to email 240 00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 1: podcasts at actionnetwork dot com. Our audio crew will take 241 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 1: care of you. They're going to send you over some 242 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:26,440 Speaker 1: merch for your contributions. But you're helping M Torres continue 243 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:28,720 Speaker 1: the conversation as we set up Brandon because he's on 244 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:31,400 Speaker 1: the same play. But I'm sure there'll be more negativity 245 00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:33,199 Speaker 1: spun into this take from Brandon. 246 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:36,559 Speaker 4: Yeah, well, we'll love a good five star review. We 247 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 4: may as well give another five star pick and give 248 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:40,959 Speaker 4: another Lamar under That's a five star pick if I 249 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 4: ever heard one. It's funny because I prep for this 250 00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 4: game on a Tuesday and came away thinking I'm under 251 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 4: on the game, and of all the props on the 252 00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:54,160 Speaker 4: entire board, touchdowns, yards carries everything, the one prop I 253 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 4: had mark is Lamar Jackson under so as I'm usually 254 00:11:57,559 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 4: kind of part of my process for the week. De 255 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:03,640 Speaker 4: Bundo's pass or play column comes out like late Tuesday usually, 256 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 4: and I try to do my prep and then check, Okay, 257 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 4: where's he at? So I read his whole column and 258 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 4: we're exact opposite. He's over, I'm under. I don't love that. 259 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:15,840 Speaker 4: And then what happens We come to the exact same 260 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 4: prop at the end of Lamar Jackson under so Yeah, 261 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 4: I think I think that's good that we can think 262 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 4: of a very different script of the game and still 263 00:12:25,040 --> 00:12:27,600 Speaker 4: like the same prop. I think that's a good, you know, 264 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 4: good process that depending on how the game goes, there's 265 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 4: a lot of different ways we can get here. Just 266 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:35,840 Speaker 4: some of the numbers on Lamar Jackson under Chiefs allowed 267 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:38,080 Speaker 4: one hundred and ninety seven yards a game passing, so 268 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:41,200 Speaker 4: under two hundred and fourth lowest in the NFL. They 269 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 4: have allowed under two hundred yards passing ten times already 270 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:46,880 Speaker 4: this season, ten times under two hundred. That two hundred 271 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 4: does not seem like much to me. That was really surprising. 272 00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:52,560 Speaker 4: That's both playoff games too. By the way, Josh Allen 273 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:56,000 Speaker 4: one eighty six last week to one ninety nine and 274 00:12:56,040 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 4: that's to a passing from behind all game that one too. 275 00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 4: Chiefs have not allowed three hundred yard all season. So 276 00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 4: when I first thought of this one, before I even 277 00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:06,280 Speaker 4: looked at a line, I was hoping for like a 278 00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:08,120 Speaker 4: one to eighty one eighty five, That's what I was 279 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:10,280 Speaker 4: kind of hoping. Maybe we get a line somewhere that ranged. 280 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 4: This was two eleven and a half when I first 281 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:15,880 Speaker 4: saw it, So, like Dubundo said, I'd rather have the 282 00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:18,959 Speaker 4: extra couple of yards, but don't mind it there. Lamar's 283 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:22,000 Speaker 4: at five playoff games. One time he threw fifty nine 284 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:24,520 Speaker 4: times against the Titans, had three hundred and sixty five yards. 285 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:27,440 Speaker 4: The other four games one ninety four and lower. So 286 00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:31,080 Speaker 4: under in four of his five playoff games doesn't have 287 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 4: to be a slander pick. He can have a big 288 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 4: game with running the ball, Like Dubundo said, he can 289 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 4: escape and scramble there. I think a lot of times 290 00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:41,440 Speaker 4: design scrambles in some way can almost be like the 291 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 4: most dangerous weapon that you have because of what Lamar 292 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:47,480 Speaker 4: does as a runner, He's obviously an absolute electric runner. 293 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:50,480 Speaker 4: So I love the under here. I was going to 294 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 4: make a note of it in my game angle as 295 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:55,480 Speaker 4: my favorite prop for this one, and then thought of 296 00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:58,079 Speaker 4: just chime in with Dubundos. So we're in on our 297 00:13:58,120 --> 00:13:59,560 Speaker 4: five star Lamar under. 298 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:02,360 Speaker 2: This third straight week for me. And you know, I 299 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 2: think the Chiefs defense pass defense has been underrated all playoffs, 300 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:08,760 Speaker 2: and I think even last week you saw it, right. 301 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 2: So some of it was Josh Allen and just kind 302 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:13,280 Speaker 2: of like the Bill's weapons just not being quite in sync. 303 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:16,840 Speaker 2: But the Chiefs did not allow a pass beyond five 304 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 2: yards to be completed last week in the Bills game 305 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 2: against Josh Allen, who's, you know, one of the best 306 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:23,200 Speaker 2: downfield throwers in the league. Granted they're won a ton 307 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 2: of attempts and there was a couple of drops, but 308 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:28,080 Speaker 2: the secondary makes life very difficult for passers to throw 309 00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 2: down the field effectively. You saw that in just about 310 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 2: every good quarterback they played this year struggle to throw 311 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 2: it down the field efficiently. I just think that both 312 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:37,280 Speaker 2: offenses will have success running the ball here and thus 313 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 2: it'll be inefficient, you know, offenses, even though that the 314 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:42,120 Speaker 2: pass won't necessarily be there for Baltimore down the field. 315 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:45,200 Speaker 1: Okay, I think we hammered the Lamar angle. Our Betty 316 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:48,800 Speaker 1: prop Beck guys on the Lamar over rush attempts to 317 00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:50,920 Speaker 1: over nine and a half, which that's moving to ten 318 00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 1: and a half. Would rather get the nine and the half. 319 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 1: Little juice, But I I wanted to add quickly there 320 00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:59,320 Speaker 1: is a lineup for Mark Andrews at bet MGM receiving 321 00:14:59,360 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 1: yards thirty f four and a half slight choose to 322 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:05,080 Speaker 1: the over. Okay, we haven't heard from Grant Neefer. Grant's 323 00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 1: been waiting patiently chime in on the pod. 324 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:10,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, No, I mean I'd actually like that pick. I 325 00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 3: like the Lamar under. I mean it's strength Baltimore being 326 00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 3: one of the best rushing offenses in the entire league 327 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:18,240 Speaker 3: versus the Chiefs on the best pass defenses well below 328 00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:20,000 Speaker 3: average in terms of run defense. It just makes sense 329 00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 3: to Lamar to rush of ball a lot. But I'm 330 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:23,360 Speaker 3: rolling with an over instead of an under, and I'm 331 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:25,240 Speaker 3: rolling on the chief side of things. Even though you 332 00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:27,600 Speaker 3: guys both love the under, still a decent chance it's 333 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 3: gonna hit. But Rashid Rice over sixty and a half 334 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:34,200 Speaker 3: yards is just a little bit low. He's been fantastic 335 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 3: the second half of the season. The Chiefs pretty much 336 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:37,400 Speaker 3: the entirety of the first half of the season, we're 337 00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 3: trying to figure out, all right, who do we put where, 338 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:41,160 Speaker 3: what do we do? Who's going to be the main guy? 339 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 3: I mean, Hardman, you have mvs, you have all sorts 340 00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 3: of just kind of mediocre to bat wide receivers in 341 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 3: this offense, to Tony like everyone has not been that great. 342 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 3: And then Rice comes in here and he finally starts 343 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:54,520 Speaker 3: to do well in the second half of the season. 344 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:57,240 Speaker 3: They finally decide, all right, we're essentially giving him the 345 00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:00,120 Speaker 3: not quite Tyreek role when it was Tyreek and Kell. 346 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 3: But he's gonna be the main guy. He's gonna be 347 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:04,600 Speaker 3: the guy that's gonna be heavily target targeted. He's gonna 348 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:06,640 Speaker 3: be the guy we rely on in the playoffs. So far, 349 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 3: he actually has more targets than all other wide receivers 350 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:12,720 Speaker 3: combined in this offense. And after what Hardman did last week, 351 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 3: I don't expect him to get a ton of volume. 352 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 3: Volume has been fantastic for Rice. He's hit the over 353 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 3: at this number and eight out of or six out 354 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:22,400 Speaker 3: of the last eight games, had nine targets in six 355 00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 3: out of the last eight games. Last week he only 356 00:16:24,640 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 3: had four, but Mahmes only threw the ball twenty three 357 00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 3: times and Brandon kind of went over what was going 358 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 3: on there. Linebackers over Buffalo not great, so they were 359 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 3: just gonna focus on running the ball anyways. Looking at 360 00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 3: the playoffs, like he has one hundred and seventy seven 361 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 3: rushing or receiving yards so far. And it's been terrible 362 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:42,280 Speaker 3: weather game. We talked about how it could potentially be 363 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 3: raining a little bit of wind. It's not like Mahomes 364 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 3: hasn't had to deal with awful weather games. I mean 365 00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:50,960 Speaker 3: the windshield in the Miami game was negative. Buffalo, it's 366 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:53,800 Speaker 3: playing in Buffalo. There was of snow earlier on, it 367 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:56,480 Speaker 3: was cold. There's always win in Buffalo this time of year. 368 00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 3: Like he's played in some rough weather games so far 369 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:01,840 Speaker 3: in the playoffs ready, and still Rice is going to 370 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:05,360 Speaker 3: get a lot of volume. We talk about how MVS 371 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 3: was heavily involved in the last game and actually caught 372 00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:10,679 Speaker 3: two long bombs and they've planned to throw downfield, and 373 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:14,760 Speaker 3: that Baltimore is much better at getting lower at targets, 374 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 3: like Rice is still going to be heavily involved in 375 00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 3: that too. Like he's him and Kelsey are the two 376 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:22,000 Speaker 3: guys in this offense that are going to get all 377 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:24,080 Speaker 3: the volumes, so we can expect Mahomes to be more 378 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:26,560 Speaker 3: like he has for most of the season, thirty seven, 379 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 3: forty passing attempts, not focusing as much on the run. 380 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:31,959 Speaker 3: Even though Baltimore is a much better pass defense, they 381 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:33,840 Speaker 3: are a run defense. There's going to be a high 382 00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 3: volume of throws because that's just kind of the way 383 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:40,680 Speaker 3: this offense operates. I mean, Mahomes had forty plus passing 384 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 3: attempts in like seven games this year. Six games this year. 385 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:46,119 Speaker 3: I want to say Rice is going to get the volume. 386 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 3: Sixty point five is just too low a number. 387 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:52,760 Speaker 1: Okay, Nico Collins while they only scored ten points Houston, 388 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:55,960 Speaker 1: Nico Collins leading receiver sixty eight yards through the air 389 00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 1: on five catches in the divisional round. Okay, good bye. 390 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,480 Speaker 1: By the way, I bet MGM offering Rashi Rice fifty 391 00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:06,040 Speaker 1: nine and a half receiving yards right now. Okay, Brandon 392 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:07,920 Speaker 1: your second pick? Please? What you got? 393 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:10,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, let's go over to the NFC. And I can't 394 00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 4: make up my mind in this game on will Detroit's score. 395 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:16,119 Speaker 4: I think the Niners defense a touch overrated. Obviously, we 396 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:18,359 Speaker 4: know I was fading them last week. With the Packers, 397 00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 4: but we got Jared Goff outdoors. Their offensive line is 398 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:24,520 Speaker 4: banged up. I kind of wanted to avoid the Lions 399 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,439 Speaker 4: side of the equation. The one thing on Sunday that 400 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:29,920 Speaker 4: I feel most confident about in either game, I think 401 00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:32,119 Speaker 4: the Niners are gonna score. So give me the forty 402 00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:35,119 Speaker 4: nine Ers team total over twenty eight and a half. 403 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 4: Like I think everyone agrees with these four teams left, 404 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:41,679 Speaker 4: this is the best offense the Niners. This is the 405 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:44,920 Speaker 4: worst defense the Lions. Like all the four, I think 406 00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 4: we pretty much all agree on that, But I think 407 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:50,080 Speaker 4: that we're missing, perhaps is how much in both of 408 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 4: those directions Detroit's defense they've hit some real issues this season, 409 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:58,280 Speaker 4: especially against the past. San Francisco has been when their 410 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:02,680 Speaker 4: guys are healthy, number one offense and number one passing offense, 411 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:04,919 Speaker 4: but number one passing offense by DV Away by like 412 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:07,919 Speaker 4: a country mile, Like if you look at what the 413 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,600 Speaker 4: number is, the percentage there, really they should be they 414 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:12,920 Speaker 4: their number one and then like two, three, four, five, 415 00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:15,159 Speaker 4: six are just blank spots to show you how far 416 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:17,080 Speaker 4: ahead of the field that they are there. And the 417 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:21,159 Speaker 4: passing defense is where Detroit is really susceptible. To be 418 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 4: attacked here. When Purdy, McCaffrey, Debo, and Trent Williams play together. 419 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:29,439 Speaker 4: They've lost one game ever, that's it, and it's the 420 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:31,320 Speaker 4: Baltimore game. It's a big one. We might get the 421 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:33,879 Speaker 4: rematch in the super Bowl, but when those four are 422 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 4: out there, they're demolishing teams. I personally think that Deebo 423 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:39,919 Speaker 4: was the least important of those four, so I know 424 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 4: he's hurt. We don't know right now as we're recording 425 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,359 Speaker 4: will we play. He did get a limited practice and 426 00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:47,920 Speaker 4: I think that he's going to play. That's just Myrida's situation. 427 00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:50,800 Speaker 4: It's his other shoulder from what was hurt. You hear 428 00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:53,840 Speaker 4: a lot about the Deebo splits. The Deebo splits look 429 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,720 Speaker 4: that way because Trent Williams and Purdy were also hurt 430 00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 4: in the games where Deebo was, and I think they're 431 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,840 Speaker 4: more important than him. So I expect you but to play. 432 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:05,560 Speaker 4: I will like this even if he doesn't, because the 433 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:08,880 Speaker 4: Niners offense is that good. The Lions defense I think 434 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:12,359 Speaker 4: could have some real problems here. They had seven games 435 00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:14,960 Speaker 4: this season out of their eighteen came against a top 436 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:18,760 Speaker 4: half of the league. DVA offensively seven out of eighteen. Now, 437 00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:20,840 Speaker 4: one of those is weak one against the Chiefs, no 438 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:24,000 Speaker 4: Travis Kelce brand new offensive line, so I'm gonna throw 439 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 4: that one out. One of them was Week four against 440 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,440 Speaker 4: the Packers, back when the Packers weren't good yet, back 441 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,240 Speaker 4: before Debundo was even watching the Packers, before Jordan Love 442 00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:35,080 Speaker 4: learn how to play football. Five more games, Lions played 443 00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:37,520 Speaker 4: a top half of the league offense. Top half. That's 444 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:41,600 Speaker 4: a top sixteen. They gave up thirty seven of the Seahawks, 445 00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,240 Speaker 4: thirty eight to the Ravens, twenty nine of the Packers, 446 00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:46,840 Speaker 4: twenty of the Cowboys, twenty three to the Rams, over 447 00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 4: twenty nine points a game, four n and sixteen yards 448 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,919 Speaker 4: a game. They lost every one of those games, except, 449 00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:53,879 Speaker 4: of course, the Rams game in the playoffs, which they 450 00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,879 Speaker 4: won by one point. Probably should have lost by the 451 00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:59,199 Speaker 4: numbers on that one as well, except for some of 452 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:01,800 Speaker 4: the clock management and coaching, et cetera. Down the stretch 453 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:06,439 Speaker 4: last five games. Here's quarterbacks against the Lions that they've played. 454 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:10,199 Speaker 4: My man Nick Mullins four hundred eleven yards Dan three 455 00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:13,080 Speaker 4: ninety six. Two weeks later, Dak put up three forty 456 00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:16,040 Speaker 4: five in the playoffs Stafford three sixty seven, Baker three 457 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:19,920 Speaker 4: forty nine. That three forty five will higher all five guys, 458 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 4: by the way, Purty three forty or more plus five 459 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 4: hundred if you want to get in on a little 460 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 4: long shot prop there. Detroit I think is gonna give 461 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,640 Speaker 4: up a lot of passing here. And I don't love 462 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,160 Speaker 4: Detroit's offense playing from behind, but I do love Dan 463 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:38,400 Speaker 4: Campbell playing from behind because what happens. Dan's not gonna 464 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:40,199 Speaker 4: just run the ball and be like, well, we had 465 00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,920 Speaker 4: a good season, guys, thanks for playing. We're losing here. 466 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:45,640 Speaker 4: Dan Campbell's gonna start going for him fourth down over 467 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:47,639 Speaker 4: and over again if they fall behind. So if he 468 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:51,119 Speaker 4: does turnover run downs up forty nineers to get the 469 00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,640 Speaker 4: ball in the twenty five three plays layer another touchdown 470 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 4: or a field goal, so we get some short field 471 00:21:55,840 --> 00:22:00,119 Speaker 4: scores there. Brockburry's last five games as a starter. Three 472 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:05,400 Speaker 4: games are against Cleveland, Baltimore, Minnesota. Those are swarming defensive pressure, 473 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:09,160 Speaker 4: tough pass defenses. One game he didn't have an arm anymore, 474 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:11,840 Speaker 4: he lost the ability to throw. The other one's a 475 00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:15,200 Speaker 4: Baltimore game. Niners scored nineteen or less in the five 476 00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:18,680 Speaker 4: losses that Perty had he has twenty one wins, they're 477 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:21,359 Speaker 4: averaging almost thirty three points a game. In those wins, 478 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:24,119 Speaker 4: they've scored at least twenty seven points, and all but 479 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:26,680 Speaker 4: three of his twenty one wins since he got into 480 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:30,040 Speaker 4: the lineup, they've had a thirty or more that hits 481 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,320 Speaker 4: the over here fifteen of the twenty one. So unless 482 00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:36,040 Speaker 4: you think the Niners lose, I think twenty seven is 483 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,240 Speaker 4: the floor here that we're expecting. And so we get 484 00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:41,800 Speaker 4: the twenty seven and we need extra field goal or touchdown. 485 00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:44,520 Speaker 4: But I like this at twenty eight and a half. 486 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:46,639 Speaker 4: Some books have a twenty nine and a half numbers 487 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,200 Speaker 4: starting to take up. I don't mind it, because I'm 488 00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 4: gonna take the escalator here. You know, I gotta get 489 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 4: one more escalator in here. Over thirty three and a 490 00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:57,280 Speaker 4: half plus two thirty Niners have scored thirty four or 491 00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:00,000 Speaker 4: more five times already this season, and then the highest 492 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:04,240 Speaker 4: and find forty plus is plus forty seventy. Detroit's allowed 493 00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:07,360 Speaker 4: thirty seven three times already. The Niners scored forty two 494 00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:09,960 Speaker 4: three times a season, once against the Cowboys, once against 495 00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:12,560 Speaker 4: the Eagles. So like against the teams that are in 496 00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:14,400 Speaker 4: the NFC, playoffs that could have been in this game, 497 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:16,920 Speaker 4: said the Lions. I think the Niners score at least 498 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:19,440 Speaker 4: thirty that hits the bat. Here, give me the forty 499 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,919 Speaker 4: nine ers over twenty eight and a half team total. 500 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:24,040 Speaker 1: Jesus, I thought you just lay the seven at this 501 00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:27,639 Speaker 1: point for crying out loud, but uh, team total gone. 502 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 2: Sounds like he's laying the seven, doesn't it it? 503 00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 1: Turres us So, hey, du bundo, so you're next. You 504 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:34,800 Speaker 1: gotta pick here, You're you're gonna take a side and 505 00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:39,440 Speaker 1: pleads weigh in on the possibility of debo. If Debo's out, 506 00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:41,600 Speaker 1: do we get a seven and a half? I imagine 507 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:43,400 Speaker 1: he plays too. I think Brandon's on it. He's probably 508 00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,160 Speaker 1: gonna play at the very at least he's a decoy. 509 00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:47,560 Speaker 1: But give the other side of it. Why are you 510 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:49,600 Speaker 1: backing Detroit. 511 00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:51,239 Speaker 2: In some fash Has anybody made the other side of it? 512 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:53,159 Speaker 2: And like, if you listen to other sports media, it 513 00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,520 Speaker 2: feels like everybody's just kind of penciled in the San 514 00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:57,240 Speaker 2: Francisco forty nine ers into the Super Bowl? 515 00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:59,439 Speaker 1: Look, well, damn it. Give the other side. 516 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:03,719 Speaker 2: Here's the thing, I think this is the most important question. Okay, 517 00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:07,239 Speaker 2: and unless Rock Party Rock. Purdy has now played two 518 00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:08,960 Speaker 2: playoff games in his career. I'm not going to count 519 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,160 Speaker 2: Philly because he got hurt on the first drive. One 520 00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:14,000 Speaker 2: was in perfectly fine weather. One was in bad weather. 521 00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:16,399 Speaker 2: Everybody kind of rode off last week and said, well, 522 00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:19,320 Speaker 2: the weather was bad and that's why Purdy played poorly. 523 00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:21,920 Speaker 2: He couldn't handle the ring in the conditions. 524 00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:24,200 Speaker 1: Winning drive game winning drive, and he looked. 525 00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:25,840 Speaker 2: Winning drive was solid. Yeah, he had a good, good, 526 00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,680 Speaker 2: game winning drive, but he was not good the rest 527 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:30,480 Speaker 2: of the game and really probably should have lost that 528 00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:34,159 Speaker 2: game multiple times over with some dropped interceptions and mis cues. 529 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,560 Speaker 2: H Green Bay will definitely rue the day that they 530 00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,639 Speaker 2: didn't win that game. Red zone and drop picks and whatnot, 531 00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:46,160 Speaker 2: but missfield goals. But I really think we're underrating Detroit here. 532 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,560 Speaker 2: I think we've kind of all, like I understand that 533 00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 2: their their past defense is a problem, and like, I 534 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,320 Speaker 2: think that's there's a reason that sar Goes laying seven. 535 00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:56,200 Speaker 2: It's the number one pass offense explosiveness San Francisco against 536 00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:59,159 Speaker 2: the number thirty two pass defense explosiveness. Whether or not 537 00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:01,200 Speaker 2: Debo Goes don't think he's going to be a hundred percent. 538 00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:03,680 Speaker 2: He's always a risk for re injury if he goes. 539 00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:05,040 Speaker 2: I think it may you may see seven and a 540 00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:07,840 Speaker 2: halfs but I thought it was interesting today a popular 541 00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:11,000 Speaker 2: pick group gave out seven on San Francisco. Market went 542 00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:13,440 Speaker 2: to seven and a half and got bought back immediately 543 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:15,760 Speaker 2: to seven. So I think when you consider the matchup 544 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:19,560 Speaker 2: here right, the biggest difference is that Detroit can stop 545 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,560 Speaker 2: the run and their number one rush defense DVOA, they 546 00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:24,680 Speaker 2: match up decently well in the trenches here. I think 547 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,119 Speaker 2: they can slow down the San Francisco offense. And then 548 00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:28,879 Speaker 2: on the other side, I think Detroit can run the 549 00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,800 Speaker 2: ball on San Francisco. And we just saw this game plan. 550 00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:35,560 Speaker 2: We saw Green Bay come out give San Francisco three 551 00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:39,400 Speaker 2: possessions in the first half of that game. Detroit green 552 00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:43,120 Speaker 2: Bay was methodical. They ran the ball effectively, they converted underneath, 553 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:45,760 Speaker 2: they had long drives. They didn't get enough points out 554 00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:48,199 Speaker 2: of them, but it enabled them to stay competitive in 555 00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:50,879 Speaker 2: the game where one or two almost mistakes from Perdy 556 00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:53,040 Speaker 2: almost cost him the game. And I think Detroit can 557 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:56,280 Speaker 2: capitalize on that and be even better because of their 558 00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,119 Speaker 2: run defense holding up better than Green Bays did. Detroit 559 00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:01,480 Speaker 2: has better special team than Green Bay two, So I 560 00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:05,000 Speaker 2: think overall the most overrated unit in this game is 561 00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:06,840 Speaker 2: the San Francisco defense, and Brandon and I have talked 562 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:08,720 Speaker 2: about it. We talked about it last week. They're twenty 563 00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:11,760 Speaker 2: eighth against the run since Week nine, their bottom ten 564 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:13,880 Speaker 2: and success rate since week nine, Like the second half 565 00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 2: of the season just hasn't been in great defense. And 566 00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:19,240 Speaker 2: I think the biggest coaching edge in this game favors 567 00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:21,720 Speaker 2: Detroit because I think Ben Johnson agains Steve Wilks is 568 00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,440 Speaker 2: a huge advantage for Detroit, and I think the way 569 00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:26,640 Speaker 2: that the two coaches are designed to play and coach 570 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,640 Speaker 2: these games, the way that they're wired, helps Detroit stay 571 00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,920 Speaker 2: competitive here because Shanahan isn't going to trust his offense enough. 572 00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:35,560 Speaker 2: He's going to be too conservative when obviously the plus 573 00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:37,040 Speaker 2: ev play is going to be to go for it 574 00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,840 Speaker 2: because you're facing a bad line secondary. He'll be more 575 00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,920 Speaker 2: conservative and he plays to keep games competitive, which is 576 00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,040 Speaker 2: not great as a favorite and doesn't do enough to 577 00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:48,560 Speaker 2: extend your talent advantage and Campbell's aggressiveness. I think any 578 00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:50,919 Speaker 2: Lions bet in this game should be accompanied by a 579 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:54,280 Speaker 2: money Lion sprinkle because the way he coaches games to 580 00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 2: be aggressive could backfire. If you like San Francisco, I 581 00:26:57,080 --> 00:26:58,960 Speaker 2: think you take also think this is a high variance game. 582 00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:01,600 Speaker 2: But I think Detroit is going to be competitive here 583 00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:03,440 Speaker 2: if they're able to get some good fourth down variants 584 00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:05,200 Speaker 2: and if they get you know, a couple of fourth 585 00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:07,679 Speaker 2: down conversions, that's going to just grind the clock out 586 00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,960 Speaker 2: and shorten the game to the point where Detroit's gonna 587 00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:14,200 Speaker 2: be really live in this one, despite the obvious advantage 588 00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:17,160 Speaker 2: that San Francisco has through the air. Again, we've all 589 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,119 Speaker 2: assumed that like Goff is gonna be the one that 590 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:22,640 Speaker 2: melts under pressure, Detroit gets a lot of pressure defensively, 591 00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:25,440 Speaker 2: they're number one in pressure rate, and I think they 592 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,479 Speaker 2: can get to this, you know, get to go Party 593 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:31,200 Speaker 2: and again, like maybe it was the rain and maybe 594 00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:33,159 Speaker 2: Pertty just gonna be a lead again. But Party was 595 00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:36,439 Speaker 2: elite for like two months last year production wise, and 596 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,160 Speaker 2: then stunk in the playoff game against Alas they barely 597 00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:41,480 Speaker 2: survived it. Then he was elite for a couple of 598 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,000 Speaker 2: months and then he kind of stunk in the in 599 00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:45,800 Speaker 2: the playoff game last week, and he wasn't good against 600 00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:49,080 Speaker 2: Baltimore either like there are still downside risk delaying a 601 00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,840 Speaker 2: full touchdown in an NFC championship game with but I 602 00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:55,119 Speaker 2: still think is the inferior quarterback. So Detroit Detroit Island, 603 00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:58,280 Speaker 2: restore the roar, and hopefully the Lions can pull off 604 00:27:58,280 --> 00:27:59,640 Speaker 2: the unthinkable. 605 00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:04,720 Speaker 1: Rock party to throw an interception over half interception plus 606 00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:07,240 Speaker 1: one h five So that's changed too. 607 00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:10,680 Speaker 2: Throw pick last week and he should have thrown about 608 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:11,120 Speaker 2: two or three. 609 00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:13,800 Speaker 1: Yep, okay, fair enough, but I think. 610 00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:16,880 Speaker 2: The favorite this week. That's actually interesting. Yeah, you would 611 00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:19,800 Speaker 2: think the more of the. 612 00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:23,159 Speaker 4: Pretty as nine interceptions and four losses this year. You 613 00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,200 Speaker 4: guys know I do the every game, every team call 614 00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:28,120 Speaker 4: them pretty clearly. I'm leaning Niners in this game, even 615 00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:31,159 Speaker 4: though I didn't take officially aside here. I think my 616 00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:33,159 Speaker 4: Lion's pick is going to be if you want to 617 00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:35,600 Speaker 4: play the Lions, I think pretty interception is the way 618 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:38,160 Speaker 4: to go. And three of the four losses this year 619 00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:42,320 Speaker 4: he's had interceptions, so yeah, I don't. You usually can't 620 00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:46,240 Speaker 4: parlay the interception with the team result that the books 621 00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,440 Speaker 4: are wise to that, but over one I had two 622 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,840 Speaker 4: perceptions around even odds. But some books do have the 623 00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:56,520 Speaker 4: the interceptions escalator there's a plus five hundred for multiple 624 00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:59,800 Speaker 4: interceptions for party. I think that's the most likely path 625 00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:03,160 Speaker 4: is the Detroit run script, and then Purty starts to 626 00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:04,880 Speaker 4: force in, gets a few mistakes there. 627 00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gathering the book. We need san Fran to 628 00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:10,400 Speaker 1: win in Detroit to cover that is what this is 629 00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,960 Speaker 1: feeling like the stage. Okay, Grant, you gotta break this tie. 630 00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:15,680 Speaker 1: A lot of san Fran love and then we got 631 00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:17,880 Speaker 1: some Detroit love. Where do you stand your last pick 632 00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:19,920 Speaker 1: for these uh these games? NFC title game? 633 00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:22,440 Speaker 3: Well, I mean I love Detroit strangely enough. Minds a 634 00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:25,640 Speaker 3: Detroit under and it's Jared goff under two sixty and 635 00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:28,800 Speaker 3: a half passing yards, and we know the entire script. 636 00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:30,840 Speaker 3: We know the reason why I'm Vegas like the home broke, 637 00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:34,080 Speaker 3: not even the home roads, but the dome outdoors splits. 638 00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,880 Speaker 3: For GoF, I've been pretty drastic, especially since it's been 639 00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:39,080 Speaker 3: over in Detroit. I mean, we look back to twenty 640 00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,640 Speaker 3: twenty one, his first season there, two thirty seven in 641 00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:46,120 Speaker 3: a dome, two eighteen passing yards outdoors. Next year it 642 00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:49,680 Speaker 3: was two seventy five in a dome, and it was 643 00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:54,520 Speaker 3: two forty three outdoors. This year it's two seventy six 644 00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,760 Speaker 3: and two fifty five. Like every single year when we 645 00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:00,240 Speaker 3: consistently see this, Gough is much better in a home 646 00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,480 Speaker 3: and this year we don't really have a huge sample 647 00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:05,480 Speaker 3: size five games outdoor golf, like played multiple games on 648 00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:06,160 Speaker 3: the road in dome. 649 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,160 Speaker 1: The Lions have played one road game in their last 650 00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:11,600 Speaker 1: like thirteen weeks, twelve weeks something like that, and it 651 00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:15,080 Speaker 1: was the Chicago game. Think more than one road game, 652 00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:17,960 Speaker 1: road game outdoor, I meant outdoor road. 653 00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:20,880 Speaker 2: Sorry, they played at Minnesota, they played at Dallas, Yeah, 654 00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:22,600 Speaker 2: pardon me, outdoor. 655 00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:25,280 Speaker 3: Real New Orleans. Yeah, No, they've been in Dome. So 656 00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:27,360 Speaker 3: first of all, he's out of practice playing the way, 657 00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:30,120 Speaker 3: but he's hit the under. So he's played I think 658 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,280 Speaker 3: ten games outside of a dome since beginning of last season, 659 00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:37,160 Speaker 3: hit the under in seven of those. Going back in 660 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,160 Speaker 3: one more season, I think it's like four and fourteen 661 00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:42,440 Speaker 3: or five and fourteen. So he's hitting the under at 662 00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:46,040 Speaker 3: a massive clip for this number on the outdoors. And 663 00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:48,760 Speaker 3: then we look at the potential game script. I get 664 00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:53,720 Speaker 3: the Niners being seven point favorites, but Detroit neutral game 665 00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:57,440 Speaker 3: situations being playing from behind whatever it is they're going 666 00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,600 Speaker 3: to run the ball still a decent amount. We put 667 00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:04,680 Speaker 3: look at situation, neutral pass play percentage. Detroit's way below 668 00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:07,720 Speaker 3: everyone else. Like it doesn't matter what's going to what 669 00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:09,600 Speaker 3: the game script is gonna be, They're still gonna run 670 00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:12,800 Speaker 3: the ball a decent amount. Matchup, San Francisco won the 671 00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,520 Speaker 3: better pass defenses in the league, won the best we 672 00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:18,600 Speaker 3: just talked about the last nine weeks. San Francisco near 673 00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:21,680 Speaker 3: the bottom in terms of run defense. Like they have Gibbs, 674 00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:24,320 Speaker 3: they have Montgomery, They're going to run the ball a lot. 675 00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,240 Speaker 3: Dan Campbell will exploit that they're gonna run the ball 676 00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:30,240 Speaker 3: a ton. Jared Goff being outdoors, I still think he's fine, 677 00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:31,920 Speaker 3: Like I still think he's a good player out doors, 678 00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:34,040 Speaker 3: But they're going to be running the ball a ton. 679 00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:37,160 Speaker 3: It's just not enough volume to justify and over at 680 00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,280 Speaker 3: this number. And I get he's been fantastic this season. 681 00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:41,160 Speaker 3: I get in the playoffs he has two eighty seven 682 00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:43,720 Speaker 3: and two seventy seven passing yards in those two games, 683 00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:45,520 Speaker 3: both which we're gonna Dome, both which are at home. 684 00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:48,080 Speaker 3: We've seen Detroit at home put up massive numbers every 685 00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:51,720 Speaker 3: single time. This is on the road. I'm against Brandon 686 00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:54,840 Speaker 3: here I like Detroit. I'm with Dubundo. I'm also I 687 00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:57,360 Speaker 3: also like the under in this game, both of them. 688 00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:00,480 Speaker 3: I think, are people just blowing out out of abortion 689 00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,480 Speaker 3: now good San Francisco's offenses in Detroit being in huge 690 00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:06,160 Speaker 3: game scripts. But this is going to be very very 691 00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:10,080 Speaker 3: different situation playing outside of a dome with Detroit and 692 00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:14,360 Speaker 3: San Francisco having to rely heavily on the pass. I mean, Purdy, 693 00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:16,520 Speaker 3: he's been good this season, don't get me wrong, but 694 00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:19,280 Speaker 3: he is a little bit of a game manager. Like 695 00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:21,680 Speaker 3: that's the entire way this offense is set up. Not 696 00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:23,600 Speaker 3: to say he's a bad quarterback, not to say he 697 00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:26,000 Speaker 3: couldn't thrive in a different situation. This is also his 698 00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:29,480 Speaker 3: second year in the league. Like he came out of college. 699 00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:31,360 Speaker 3: There's a reason why he was a seventh round draft pick. 700 00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:33,479 Speaker 3: He's a good quarterback, don't get me wrong, But he 701 00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:38,040 Speaker 3: also has the ability to Ryn McCaffrey, Kittle, Ayuk and 702 00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:40,160 Speaker 3: Samuel Like he has one of the best coaches in 703 00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:44,000 Speaker 3: the league, probably the best weapons in the league. He 704 00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:47,960 Speaker 3: hasn't been relied on to win games that often, and 705 00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:50,360 Speaker 3: this is a spot where I could see Detroit getting 706 00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:53,000 Speaker 3: up here a little bit Perdy having to do most 707 00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:54,400 Speaker 3: of the stuff because they're not going to be able 708 00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:57,040 Speaker 3: to just run the ball down Detroit's throughout the entire time. 709 00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:01,040 Speaker 3: So I'm more on the Detroit side a lot. I'm 710 00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:02,760 Speaker 3: more on the under a lot. I think this is 711 00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:04,560 Speaker 3: going to be a ground and pound game for the 712 00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:06,760 Speaker 3: Detroit side of things. I think this is going to 713 00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:08,720 Speaker 3: be a close game, and I think there's a decent 714 00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:10,560 Speaker 3: chance that the Lions end up winning this one. 715 00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,040 Speaker 2: Well, the biggest thing for Detroit is like, Okay, yes, 716 00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:16,360 Speaker 2: they have not been a good defense. They have tightened 717 00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:18,080 Speaker 2: up in the red zone though, because their run defense 718 00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:20,200 Speaker 2: is so good and their secondary gets less exposed in 719 00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:22,320 Speaker 2: those situations. I think there is something to that. And 720 00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:24,680 Speaker 2: of course, like red zone small samples are kind of noisy, 721 00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:26,920 Speaker 2: But I think there's a world where you know, San 722 00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:29,280 Speaker 2: Francisco may move the ball, and they're surely going to 723 00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:30,680 Speaker 2: move the ball. They move ball on everybody, even the 724 00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:33,000 Speaker 2: Baltimore game they had six yards for play. But when 725 00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:34,800 Speaker 2: they get down to the red zone, like, there's gonna 726 00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:36,920 Speaker 2: be situations where they should go for it, and maybe 727 00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:38,840 Speaker 2: they don't. Maybe Shanahan kind of blinks a little bit 728 00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:40,640 Speaker 2: and kicks field goals and that keeps Detroit in this game. 729 00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:41,640 Speaker 2: That's what I think it's going to happen. 730 00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:44,040 Speaker 3: And who's going to go for it every single time? 731 00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:45,480 Speaker 2: MotorCity Dan Campbell. 732 00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:48,959 Speaker 3: Yeah, especially against a bad run defense like we could see. 733 00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:51,240 Speaker 3: We're not used to it too often. I mean outside 734 00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:54,160 Speaker 3: Baltimore game. But Detroit could control time of possession in 735 00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:56,080 Speaker 3: this game, which is a weird thing. You should against 736 00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:58,600 Speaker 3: San Francisco, all right. 737 00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:01,480 Speaker 1: I double checked it. One of their life twelve outside 738 00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:05,880 Speaker 1: with the Chicago Jared Goff won sixty one through the air, 739 00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:08,400 Speaker 1: they ran the ball twenty four times, Gibbs and Montgomery 740 00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:11,520 Speaker 1: sixty six yards apiece on the ground. This podcast is 741 00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:15,000 Speaker 1: proudly presented by BETTMGM used bonus code action when signing 742 00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:17,040 Speaker 1: up to get up to one hundred and fifty eight 743 00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:19,759 Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars for 744 00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:27,080 Speaker 1: new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 745 00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:32,120 Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming. 746 00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:34,840 Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older. 747 00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:39,040 Speaker 1: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler. All right, let's 748 00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:41,840 Speaker 1: have some fun to wrap it up, some potential Super 749 00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:46,040 Speaker 1: Bowl look ahead picks, so full disclosure, some of these 750 00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:48,640 Speaker 1: that these guys give out. You can bet these now. 751 00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:52,319 Speaker 1: But if it doesn't play out, the BET's void. If 752 00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:54,719 Speaker 1: the matchup doesn't happen. In some cases that each of 753 00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:56,040 Speaker 1: the guys are going to weigh in with one. So 754 00:34:56,360 --> 00:35:00,200 Speaker 1: for example, Brandon, you're going to play an angle. Which 755 00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,480 Speaker 1: this is kind of funny because if Detroit does win, 756 00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:05,080 Speaker 1: this sets up for you to maybe get a good 757 00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:06,399 Speaker 1: number on the team they play. 758 00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:09,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, if we get a Ravens Lions super Bowl, that 759 00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,319 Speaker 4: for me. I have two articles up this week, one 760 00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:14,600 Speaker 4: with the Bundo Ones on my own, I ranked the 761 00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:16,680 Speaker 4: super Bowls in order of just how fun are they? 762 00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:20,360 Speaker 4: Ravens lines, to me is my lowest fun because it 763 00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:23,520 Speaker 4: is my most confident in bet, and I would be 764 00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:25,680 Speaker 4: all over the Ravens. So I want to love the 765 00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:28,800 Speaker 4: Ravens Mines three and a half right now, especially because 766 00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:31,160 Speaker 4: I don't think the lines are gonna get there anyway clearly, 767 00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:33,600 Speaker 4: but that bet just gets avoided otherwise. This is the 768 00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:36,719 Speaker 4: one matchup that I just don't think is super competitive. 769 00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:40,759 Speaker 4: Lamar not my MVP, but sure played like it when 770 00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:43,680 Speaker 4: they play the Lions in Week seven, the game was 771 00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:46,719 Speaker 4: over halfway through the second quarters, twenty eight nothing. The 772 00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:50,719 Speaker 4: Ravens drove four times for touchdowns, the Lions went three 773 00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:53,160 Speaker 4: and out three times in between. It's thirty two plays, 774 00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:55,239 Speaker 4: three hundred and twenty three yards at that point to 775 00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:59,480 Speaker 4: thirteen Detroit yards. Lamar has three fifty seven, three touchdowns 776 00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:04,280 Speaker 4: and a running touchdown. Perfect game. Basically. Baltimore's defense also 777 00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:08,560 Speaker 4: had a huge game. Their actual MVP. The Lions offense 778 00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:11,720 Speaker 4: cruising early, got totally shut down. Jared Goff got sacked 779 00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:15,600 Speaker 4: five times. Jared Goff has an interception. They go seven 780 00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:18,239 Speaker 4: of twenty two on third and fourth downs, so gonna 781 00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:20,840 Speaker 4: get a lot of that aggression coming back here. I 782 00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:24,480 Speaker 4: just think it's not outdoors, but Jared Goff against Mike 783 00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:28,160 Speaker 4: McDonald's defense, No way am I backing that side in 784 00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:30,000 Speaker 4: the Super Bowl. Like that's really all I need to 785 00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:32,400 Speaker 4: know is Jared Goff against Mike McDonald and all that 786 00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:35,760 Speaker 4: defense there. So you heard the case earlier about Detroit 787 00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:39,200 Speaker 4: defense against top offenses. Baltimore is not San fran But 788 00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:42,319 Speaker 4: I think they can get some points to first game 789 00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:44,439 Speaker 4: ended thirty eight to six. I don't think we're going 790 00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:46,600 Speaker 4: to thirty eight to six, so it's obviously gonna be 791 00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:49,920 Speaker 4: closer to that. But I honestly think this line should 792 00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:52,479 Speaker 4: be closer to a touchdown than a field goal. It's 793 00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:55,080 Speaker 4: already starting to take up at some books, even as 794 00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:57,120 Speaker 4: a hypothetical line. I've seen a four and a half 795 00:36:57,160 --> 00:37:00,239 Speaker 4: at some books, so I wouldn't be too surprised. Four 796 00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:01,759 Speaker 4: and a half. Five five and a half is kind 797 00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:04,239 Speaker 4: of the dead zone if it's moving that way anyways, 798 00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:06,319 Speaker 4: Could this get to five and a half or six? 799 00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:08,840 Speaker 4: That's where I think it should be. So I'm looking 800 00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:11,520 Speaker 4: for the closing line value as usual. So give me 801 00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:13,680 Speaker 4: the minus three and a half and get in before 802 00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:16,839 Speaker 4: the four if you can at your book. And you know, 803 00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:18,400 Speaker 4: I hope we don't get it, because I don't think 804 00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:20,040 Speaker 4: it'll be a fun super Bowl. I think the Ravens 805 00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:22,040 Speaker 4: will roll, but we may as well make some early 806 00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:23,040 Speaker 4: money and if we can. 807 00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:25,600 Speaker 1: And again to be very clear, I asked this question 808 00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:27,759 Speaker 1: before we record it because even I was unsure you 809 00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:30,360 Speaker 1: can bet this now and if neither of these teams 810 00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:33,120 Speaker 1: are in this Super Bowl. So if it's Kansas City 811 00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:37,879 Speaker 1: in Detroit or Baltimore and San Francisco, the bet voids. Yes, 812 00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:42,360 Speaker 1: it's very clear, so dubundo similar boat, but going to 813 00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:46,680 Speaker 1: a total. The rebatch from Christmas Day San Francisco Baltimore 814 00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:48,520 Speaker 1: is where you're targeting something. 815 00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:51,839 Speaker 2: Ravens Lions is Brandon's worst nightmare because he you know, 816 00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:54,880 Speaker 2: he's been in so anti Lamar and hates the Lions apparently. 817 00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:59,040 Speaker 2: But I love the over again in Ravens Niners. If 818 00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:01,200 Speaker 2: we get it again close forty seven and a half 819 00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:04,640 Speaker 2: on the grass and Santa Clara outdoors, it would be 820 00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:06,879 Speaker 2: forty seven and a half indoors according to the current 821 00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:09,000 Speaker 2: number at Vegas. I don't agree with that it should 822 00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:12,800 Speaker 2: be a full point higher. These two teams played that game. 823 00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:15,080 Speaker 2: I bet the over that day. I said both offense 824 00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:16,560 Speaker 2: are gonna be able to move the ball. The Niners 825 00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:22,040 Speaker 2: defense remains overvalued. And even though San Francisco only got 826 00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:24,879 Speaker 2: to nineteen points, they had six point three yards per 827 00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:26,920 Speaker 2: play and over three hundred and fifty yards offense, they 828 00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:30,400 Speaker 2: just had two red zone interceptions and another one in 829 00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:34,080 Speaker 2: plus territory. So all of the turnovers that happened you know, 830 00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:37,880 Speaker 2: dramatically changed the outcome of the final score, which by 831 00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:40,799 Speaker 2: the way, still went over and went to fifty two. 832 00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:43,040 Speaker 2: So I really think the total would be too low 833 00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:45,160 Speaker 2: given the quality of the offenses at forty seven and 834 00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:47,320 Speaker 2: a half. So I know it's Vinovich and he's a 835 00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:49,600 Speaker 2: notorious under ref doesn't call a lot of flags, but 836 00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:51,880 Speaker 2: I think the over is the play there. If we 837 00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:55,000 Speaker 2: get the Chalky super Bowl and one of the fun things, 838 00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:56,799 Speaker 2: if we do get Ravens Lions, like, yes, we all 839 00:38:56,840 --> 00:38:58,800 Speaker 2: watched that game happen, but there's always a counter. So 840 00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:01,319 Speaker 2: I'd be interest to see with Detroit do to must 841 00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:03,880 Speaker 2: drop a counter to the Baltimore domination in the first meeting. 842 00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:06,760 Speaker 5: Great Grant ne for what do you have for us, 843 00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:11,480 Speaker 5: I'm I'm I'm going with the lowest juiced bet on 844 00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:14,840 Speaker 5: the board generally which you know always line shop but 845 00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:16,680 Speaker 5: generally can find the juice around minus one O two, 846 00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:17,680 Speaker 5: minus one O three. 847 00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:21,400 Speaker 3: I'm going heads. It's been it's been a weird last 848 00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:23,799 Speaker 3: decade in terms of the coin flip. We've we've had 849 00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:26,719 Speaker 3: a lot of streaks four four or five heads in 850 00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:28,960 Speaker 3: a row, four tails in a row, than heads, then 851 00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:31,239 Speaker 3: two tails, two heads, and you think since it was 852 00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:33,120 Speaker 3: tails last year, it's gonna be tails again this year. No, 853 00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:35,520 Speaker 3: it's gonna be heads this year. I think that's what 854 00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:37,880 Speaker 3: I'm going with. It's one of my favorite bets. Every 855 00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:40,759 Speaker 3: single super Bowl, I generally know how my day is 856 00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:43,160 Speaker 3: gonna go after the coin flip outside of last year 857 00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:45,799 Speaker 3: went heads again and lost it and still ended up 858 00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:48,120 Speaker 3: making a boatload of money on the Super Bowl. But 859 00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:52,000 Speaker 3: it's it's I think I have my lean towards heads 860 00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:54,000 Speaker 3: here and I'm really liking. 861 00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:58,440 Speaker 1: That's fantastic. Keep an eye out for more props like 862 00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:00,360 Speaker 1: this for the super Bowl, and the PROPA lose a 863 00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:02,920 Speaker 1: episode leading up to the super Bowl, so keep an 864 00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:06,200 Speaker 1: eye out for that. I think we're done here. Great work, gentlemen, 865 00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:09,719 Speaker 1: great mey for Anthony Dubundo, Brandon Anderson. Find them in 866 00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:12,520 Speaker 1: the Action app. You can find them and follow them individually. 867 00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:14,960 Speaker 1: My name is Brendan glass Sheen. Thank you all for 868 00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:19,920 Speaker 1: listening to our NFL Conference Championship Weekend Best Bets episode 869 00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:23,359 Speaker 1: presented by our friends at bet MGM, the King of Sportsbooks. 870 00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:25,800 Speaker 1: Don't forget to download the app. As I mentioned, find 871 00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:30,040 Speaker 1: our contributors in the Action Network discord, subscribe to our 872 00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:32,799 Speaker 1: YouTube channel, leave a five star review like our pal 873 00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:35,839 Speaker 1: m torres and leave a review about rock Perty if 874 00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:38,480 Speaker 1: you want talk about how great he is, how great 875 00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:41,800 Speaker 1: or how bad Lamar Jackson is really comes to Fruition 876 00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:43,960 Speaker 1: this week. I noticed the Niners jersey too. You'd never 877 00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:44,759 Speaker 1: even mentioned that there. 878 00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:48,320 Speaker 2: It is Lamar jack Hello everybody, you're. 879 00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:50,600 Speaker 1: That kind of guy. Du bundo it. It's great. Hey, everybody, 880 00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:52,440 Speaker 1: best of bluck this weekend. We'll see you next time 881 00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:55,320 Speaker 1: you're in The Action Network podcast, presented by bet MGM 882 00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:55,919 Speaker 1: good Luck. 883 00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:16,239 Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 884 00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:19,080 Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 885 00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:22,200 Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler