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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: It's day four in Israel, where the deathtoll is now

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Speaker 1: approaching two thousand. Welcome to the fastest show in politics,

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Speaker 1: as Israel prepares for the next phase of its retaliation

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Speaker 1: against Tomas, which has already brought hundreds of deaths as

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Speaker 1: well in Gaza. We'll talk about the strategies at hand

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Speaker 1: now for the Israelis, as well as potential US involvement

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Speaker 1: with the former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper. He'll be

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Speaker 1: with us in just a moment, we're standing by to

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Speaker 1: here from President Biden. He'll be addressing the situation in

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Speaker 1: Israel from the White House. So welcome to the Tuesday

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Speaker 1: edition of Sound On as we wait to hear from

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Speaker 1: the President, as I mentioned, set to address the nation

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Speaker 1: from the State Dining Room, and we do have a

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Speaker 1: sense that he will be obviously condemning the attacks from Hamas,

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Speaker 1: but it's unclear exactly what he's going to say about

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Speaker 1: a potential supplemental request for funding to what extent the

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Speaker 1: US will lean into this.

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Speaker 3: We know we have, of.

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Speaker 1: Course a carrier strike group that's on its way to

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Speaker 1: Israel right now, and that's where we begin our conversation

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Speaker 1: with Mark Esper, chairman national security partner at Red Cell Partners.

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Speaker 1: As we've told you, he is also author of the

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Speaker 1: New York Times best selling memoir A Sacred Oath, and

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Speaker 1: mister Secretary, I welcome you back to Bloomberg. It's great

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Speaker 1: to have you. We're reporting on the terminal now that

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Speaker 1: the build up of forces is getting to be something

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Speaker 1: of note here as Israel stands by for the next phase,

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Speaker 1: and I wonder what you see in the days ahead

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Speaker 1: as the next phase in this retaliation against Hamas.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Joe, good afternoon. First of all, good to be

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Speaker 4: with you and your viewers and listeners. Look, at this

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Speaker 4: point in time, I think the Israeli defense forces certainly

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Speaker 4: need to make sure that all militants in Israel have

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Speaker 4: been killed or captured. The reports are that that has

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Speaker 4: been accomplished. Second, we see that they're massing forces now

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Speaker 4: they've called the reserves three hundred and sixty thousand or so.

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Speaker 4: You see heavy equipment coming in, tanks, armored personnel carriers,

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Speaker 4: et cetera. It will take them a few days short

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Speaker 4: days to again muster, mobilize, brief plans, and then be

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Speaker 4: prepared to move into Gaza. In the meantime, what they

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Speaker 4: really have to do is tamp down on this rocket

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Speaker 4: fire coming out of Gaza. As we speak, Hamas is

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Speaker 4: shooting rockets into Ashkalan, have been doing so for a

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Speaker 4: couple hours or so, continue to pummel Iran. I'm sorry,

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Speaker 4: Israeli towns and cities. So I think those are the

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Speaker 4: next few steps. As we look at it politically, bbing

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Speaker 4: Net and Yaho's already come out and talked about forming

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Speaker 4: a unity government. That's a good move. Obviously lining up

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Speaker 4: supporters globally. I think that's one of the things we'll

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Speaker 4: here about from President Biden when he comes on. But

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Speaker 4: there's this political international dynamic that needs to happen as well,

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Speaker 4: particularly warning off would be opportunists. Opportunists such as Syria,

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Speaker 4: Iran and other groups like Hezbalah.

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Speaker 1: We see today Boeing speeding one thousand smart bombs to

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Speaker 1: Israel following the attacks. Mister Secretary, to what extent can

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Speaker 1: we transfer weapons now, either from our stockpiles here in

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Speaker 1: the US or our stockpiles in Israel without going to Congress,

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Speaker 1: without further delay.

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Speaker 4: Well, we do have some stockpiles presently in Israel, so

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Speaker 4: that's available, and we can move other munitions from throughout

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Speaker 4: the region and of course from the United States. But

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Speaker 4: you know, the munition's precision. Got munitions in particular will

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Speaker 4: be a top request for the israelis Actually a top

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Speaker 4: of that will be intelligence, both tactical with regard to

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Speaker 4: what's happening on the ground in Gaza, around Gaza, but

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Speaker 4: also strategic what's happening in the region, making sure that

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Speaker 4: we had our eyes and ears out about what other

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Speaker 4: moves countries might make. So I think intelligence munitions. Maybe

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Speaker 4: air defense might be another request as well. And of course,

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Speaker 4: as you mentioned up front, the presence of the Carrier

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Speaker 4: Strike Group and the Eastern Mediterranean sends a very very

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Speaker 4: powerful message of support for Israel, but also deterrens again

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Speaker 4: from others who might want to act here in the

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Speaker 4: coming days and weeks.

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Speaker 1: Are there guardrails on transferring weapons from our stockpiles in

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Speaker 1: Israel to the Israelis? Are there guardrails on using them

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Speaker 1: in Gaza, of course, a heavily populated area that's full

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Speaker 1: of civilians.

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Speaker 4: Well, the transfer or sell weapons from the United States

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Speaker 4: to Israel, it's something been happening for decades. We know

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Speaker 4: it very well.

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Speaker 5: Of course.

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Speaker 4: I think the United States provides over three billion dollars

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Speaker 4: a year in assistance to Israel. Good chunk of that military,

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Speaker 4: so we know what they need, we know what's been

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Speaker 4: improved in the past. We always expect those to whom

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Speaker 4: we sell provide weapons will act in accordance with the

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Speaker 4: laws of war and the Geneva Conventions. The Israelis the

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Speaker 4: IDEA F is a very professional military force. We're confident

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Speaker 4: they take great care to avoid civiling casualties and unnecessary harm.

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Speaker 4: That's going to be difficult to do in Gaza, of course,

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Speaker 4: because of the density of that area, but also the

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Speaker 4: fact that Hamas uses humans to include not just the

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Speaker 4: Israelis they've captured, but Palestinians as well, to hide within

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Speaker 4: those densely populated as populated areas, putting weapons where they shouldn't,

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Speaker 4: such as in schools and whatnot. So it's a challenge

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Speaker 4: in that place when you're dealing with Hamas.

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Speaker 1: It's been pretty remarkable seeing the Iron Dome in action

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Speaker 1: over these past four days. Mister Secretary, you know all

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Speaker 1: about it. I mean, they're obviously dealing with overwhelming numbers

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Speaker 1: of rockets, but they've repelled an incredible number of them.

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Speaker 1: I think most would suggest that it's a success, and

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Speaker 1: at some point they're going to need many more missiles

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Speaker 1: to make up for those that have already been used.

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Speaker 1: This is something that came up with Kevin McCarthy, the

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Speaker 1: former Speaker, yesterday, and I'll play you something that he

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Speaker 1: said in a moment. But I wonder how quickly I

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Speaker 1: believe Raytheon helps to make those missiles in partnership with

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Speaker 1: an Israeli company, how speedy could those be? Replaced.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, I don't know the exact number, but

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Speaker 4: it's not like you're making donuts. They don't go in

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Speaker 4: at night and come out in the morning. I mean,

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Speaker 4: these things take weeks, if not months. Has been my experience,

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Speaker 4: many months to build missiles. So I'm I'm sure Israel

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Speaker 4: has stockpiled a good deal. But as you said, what

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Speaker 4: Hamas is shooting three thousand and four thousand rockets in

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Speaker 4: a two to three day period, you have to have

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Speaker 4: a lot of stockpile because not every interceptor hits. Although

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Speaker 4: it's a great system, right, a ninety percent success rate,

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Speaker 4: But if you figure if you're shooting at one thousand

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Speaker 4: missiles and you hit ninety percent, that means one hundred

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Speaker 4: are getting through and so not perfect very good. I

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Speaker 4: think it's when you compliment that with Israeli warning systems

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Speaker 4: and bunkers and whatnot, it goes a long way. But

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Speaker 4: clearly you have to continue production. We have to accelerate that.

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Speaker 4: Keep in mind that Hesbala has well over one hundred

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Speaker 4: thousand rockets and missiles in southern Lebanon. Estimates have been

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Speaker 4: as high as one hundred and forty or one hundred

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Speaker 4: and fifty thousand that can easily overwhelm Iron Dome, particularly

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Speaker 4: if you fire you know, hundreds and hundreds at once.

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Speaker 4: So it's a big concern. And we're not even talking

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Speaker 4: about Iran yet too. So it's something that we have

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Speaker 4: to accelerate on our end, and I'm sure they are

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Speaker 4: doing on theirs as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So when Kevin McCarthy was asked yesterday about potential supplemental

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Speaker 1: funding for Ukraine, potential supplemental funding for Israel, and also

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Speaker 1: replenishing our own munitions, I thought it was an interesting

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Speaker 1: turn that he took here, and I'd love for you

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Speaker 1: to listen to what he said and respond when it

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Speaker 1: comes to and something that you know about, intimately the

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Speaker 1: supply chain and the manufacturing chain on these weapons systems.

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Speaker 2: Here's Kevin McCarthy right now.

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Speaker 6: Ukraine still has another nine billion that they can draw

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Speaker 6: down sitting there for arms. The question comes now in

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Speaker 6: our stockpiles.

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Speaker 4: We need a whole.

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Speaker 6: New ability for the procurement and movement of the building

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Speaker 6: of our weapons. It's too slow, it takes too long,

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Speaker 6: and we've watched others try to take advantage of it.

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Speaker 1: Secretary Esper, I wonder your thoughts on that what needs

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Speaker 1: to be done now, knowing that the push and pull

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Speaker 1: from Ukraine in Israel are not going to be going

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Speaker 1: away anytime soon, and they will be continued. Major asks

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Speaker 1: here of the US and requests for supplemental funding to

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Speaker 1: create these weapons, but we don't have the infrastructure to

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Speaker 1: make them.

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Speaker 4: What needs to be done, well, you have to go

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Speaker 4: back in time. I mean the speed by which we produce,

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Speaker 4: deliver order weapons equipment is too slow, not just for

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Speaker 4: what Israel is asking or Ukraine is asking for, but

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Speaker 4: for what the United States military itself needs. And look,

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Speaker 4: there are two guilty players here. One is the Pentagon

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Speaker 4: with the slowness of contracting and determined requirements and building

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Speaker 4: their budgets and sorting through this and that. But then

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Speaker 4: it goes to Capitol Hill, and Capitol Hill is an

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Speaker 4: eighteen month process, right, and then they put restrictions on

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Speaker 4: how many can be built, and they don't allow multi

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Speaker 4: year purchases. In many cases they could not just give

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Speaker 4: predictability to industry but also lower the price per unit

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Speaker 4: for the United States taxpayer. So all hands are dirty

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Speaker 4: on this. We certainly need a new system, I think

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Speaker 4: the defense industrial base. If we're willing to make the

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Speaker 4: investments in it to have sufficient not just in time delivery,

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Speaker 4: but just more than enough delivery as well, so we

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Speaker 4: have ample room in case we get into a bigger

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Speaker 4: fight with China. So I think there's a lot of needed.

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Speaker 4: But if you look at the defense budget of the

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Speaker 4: past few years, each budget submitted by President Biden has

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Speaker 4: been below inflation, so it's been a cut in real terms.

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Speaker 4: And then the budget cap is that was recently agreed

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Speaker 4: to the last several months also imposed as a cap

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Speaker 4: and next year will be even further smaller. So defense

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Speaker 4: is not keeping up with the needs of what the

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Speaker 4: world is presenting us. The threats are far greater than

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Speaker 4: the supply. And I think it's not just more money.

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Speaker 4: I've always argued for three to five percent annual real growth.

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Speaker 4: We certainly need that, but we also need reforms to

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Speaker 4: both how Congress works and how DoD works. I co

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Speaker 4: chair commission at the Atlanta Council that has focused just

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Speaker 4: on that. I work in the venture capital space. I

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Speaker 4: see it from the innovator's perspective. We are way too

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Speaker 4: slow to bureaucratic and it's not just a pentagon that's

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Speaker 4: in the way, but it's the White House and it's

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Speaker 4: Congress too.

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Speaker 1: Well, in the meantime, sir, it's going to be door

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Speaker 1: to door fighting. It appears in Gaza with a hostage

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Speaker 1: rescue operation underway. God knows what is going to follow.

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Speaker 1: When we consider the idea of a ground invasion, what

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Speaker 1: is it that Israel actually needs? Obviously Hamas doesn't have

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Speaker 1: an air force. What are the tools required for this job?

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Speaker 4: Well, I think in terms of munition's request, it's going

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Speaker 4: to be smart weapons, particularly you know, precision bombs, small

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Speaker 4: bombs that don't create as much collateral damage, such as

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Speaker 4: the small diameter bomb and so on. But look, the

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Speaker 4: bigger question is what does Israel aim to do. Are

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Speaker 4: they going to go in to punish Hamas by decapitate,

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Speaker 4: decaptaining the leadership, knocking out command centers, destroying stockpiles. Are

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Speaker 4: they going in there to create a more of a

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Speaker 4: buffer within the Gaza strip itself, to push back the

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Speaker 4: settlements even further? Are they going to go into occupy

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Speaker 4: to make sure that Hamas doesn't rise up again? And

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Speaker 4: each one of those has pros and cons. Clearly, I

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Speaker 4: think the sentiment is nobody wants to do another because

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Speaker 4: of you know, another occupation of Gaza, but I think

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Speaker 4: that has to be defined first. And the big complicating

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Speaker 4: factor here is that Hamas is holding somewhere between one

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Speaker 4: hundred and thirty to one hundred and fifty Israelis hostage

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Speaker 4: and they promise to start killing them on TV filming

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Speaker 4: it if Israel continues to attack without warning severe sites,

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Speaker 4: and of course that would include an incursion into Gaza.

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Speaker 4: So it's very complicated for the Israelis. What do they do?

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Speaker 4: How do they conduct this war in a manner consistent

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Speaker 4: with the laws of war and whatnot when they're dealing

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Speaker 4: with a barbaric enemy who doesn't follow any rules and

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Speaker 4: is holding their people hostage. And some, by the way,

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Speaker 4: we suspect of those hostages are foreign nationals, to include

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Speaker 4: possibly Americans, So it's real complicated. This is not an

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Speaker 4: easy situation for these Raelis at all, and for anybody.

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Speaker 1: It sure isn't. So to what extent, then, does the

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Speaker 1: gerald Ford Carrier group actually play a role in all

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Speaker 1: of this? We're talking about precision maneuvering in a congested

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Speaker 1: urban environment. Where does an aircraft carrier come into play?

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Speaker 1: Or is that simply about projecting American strength?

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Speaker 4: I think first and foremost that's about projecting Americans support

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Speaker 4: and confidence in Israel. It's a very muscular, visible thing

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Speaker 4: to do. Second, it's about deterring adversaries, particularly nation states

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Speaker 4: like Syria like Iran, from doing anything trying to take

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Speaker 4: advantage of the situation. A Third, it does give us,

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Speaker 4: of course, capability between the carrier and then the cruiser

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Speaker 4: and four destroyers that are accompanying the carrier to provide firepower,

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Speaker 4: long range missiles strike aircraft if something were to go awry.

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Speaker 4: But I think the other thing it more likely provides

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Speaker 4: is a platform by which we can conduct non combatant

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Speaker 4: evacuation operations for Americans, and if worse comes to worse,

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Speaker 4: we actually have the capability to use those ships as

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Speaker 4: platforms to go and conduct hostage rescue missions alongside with

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Speaker 4: side by side with the Israeli So I think it

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Speaker 4: provides a number of functions. But first and foremost it's

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Speaker 4: about sending a power signal to Israel and to Israel's

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Speaker 4: adversaries in the region.

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Speaker 1: To what extent it is also potentially for a widening conflict.

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Speaker 1: The long game worst case scenario, well, the.

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Speaker 4: Long game is that the roots to this operation, not

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Speaker 4: just the funding and the arming and the training, but

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Speaker 4: actually the planning and the green lighting are positively, definitively

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Speaker 4: determined to go back to Iran. Then I think it's

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Speaker 4: a much bigger game. It's now could be a regional conflict,

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Speaker 4: depending on how Israel responds or wants to respond. They

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Speaker 4: can't take on too much at once. But in that case,

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Speaker 4: you can suspect that we will be providing more support.

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Speaker 4: The TEL here for me would be more American forces,

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Speaker 4: particularly strike aircraft and air defense systems, moving into the region.

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Speaker 4: That tells us that something bigger may be up. And

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Speaker 4: I look, at the end of the day, all roads

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Speaker 4: lead back to Iran. They're funding all this terrorism throughout

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Speaker 4: the region, whether it's Amas has Belah and Yemen, she

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Speaker 4: I militia groups in Iraq or you know Shea groups

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Speaker 4: in other countries, it all goes back. Then, we've been

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Speaker 4: dealing with this for forty years. You're never going to

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Speaker 4: get rid of it until you deal with the I

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Speaker 4: told all once.

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Speaker 7: And for all.

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Speaker 1: Well, there you have it from the former Secretary of Defense.

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Speaker 1: Mark Esper is now a partner and board member at

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Speaker 1: Red Cell Partners and of course author of the book

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Speaker 1: A Sacred Oath.

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Speaker 2: It's great to have you back.

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Speaker 1: Mister Secretary, and appreciate your insights here at an important time.

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Speaker 1: As we assemble our panel, Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributor

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Speaker 1: with us, as well as Genie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributor

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Speaker 1: in New York, we're going to get to hear from

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Speaker 1: both of them. Genie, I'm going to start with you

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Speaker 1: as we stand by for President Biden. What does he

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Speaker 1: need to say today from the White House.

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Speaker 3: He needs to express sympathy and empathy for all of

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Speaker 3: the victims and their families. That is critical. He needs

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Speaker 3: to express again rock solid support for Israel, our closest

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Speaker 3: ally in the region. He needs to condemn what Hamas

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Speaker 3: has done, and he needs to express full US support

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Speaker 3: for whatever it takes to help Israel in this moment

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Speaker 3: of distress. Beyond that, I think he needs to rally

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Speaker 3: the American people. This is particularly important. I have just

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Speaker 3: been talking to young people. You look at college campuses

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Speaker 3: across the country. There are some very divergent opinions on

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Speaker 3: this issue as it pertains to the treatment of the Palestinians.

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Speaker 3: He needs to address that. It is something we are

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Speaker 3: going to hear an awful lot about the fear of

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Speaker 3: many supporters Israel is that you go forward in a

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Speaker 3: few weeks, a few months, support that is now very

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Speaker 3: robust will diminish as we see Israel do what it

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Speaker 3: needs to do to take care of Hamas. So these

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Speaker 3: are very real concerns for the President and the administration.

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Speaker 1: Brick Davis with me here in Washington. How much of

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Speaker 1: a hardline then, does Joe Biden need to take today?

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Speaker 7: Look, I think that he's got to be pretty tough.

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Speaker 7: You know, there's been a deafening silence from the administry

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Speaker 7: so far on this. I mean, they've obviously said the

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Speaker 7: minimum basic requirements for support for Israel. I think the

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Speaker 7: President needs to put this in the context of where

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Speaker 7: the United States is in the world and how dangerous

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Speaker 7: it is.

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Speaker 1: We're going to take the deep dive with our panel

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Speaker 1: coming up, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano. As we stand

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Speaker 1: by for the president. We will bring you his remarks

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Speaker 1: from the White House live as well here on the

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Speaker 1: radio and on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. The cameras

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Speaker 1: are lit here on another important day in Washington. We

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Speaker 1: haven't even mentioned the battle for speaker. Yet we'll get

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Speaker 1: to all of it ahead. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

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Speaker 2: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

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Speaker 2: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 2: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 1: President Biden said to address the nation from the White

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Speaker 1: House well twenty three minutes ago. Clearly things have been

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Speaker 1: delayed because we've just learned that he's been on a

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Speaker 1: phone call with Prime Minister Benjamin net and Yahoo both

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on this call, which might

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Speaker 1: mean that we'll hear from him shortly. As we know

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Speaker 1: the call has ended. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington with

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Speaker 1: our panel, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno with a s

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Politics contributors, trying to understand the way forward here. Rick,

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Speaker 1: you were making the point that the President needs to

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Speaker 1: take a pretty hard line today, and I suspect that

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Speaker 1: getting off the phone with Benjamin nett Yaho would go

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Speaker 1: a long way to getting him to that point.

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Speaker 7: That's right, And I think that you know, we're in

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Speaker 7: a bipolar world situation. We're very much in competition with

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Speaker 7: our adversaries China, Russia, Iran, and this is a hot

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Speaker 7: war that Iran has either inspired or instigated. And so

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Speaker 7: in that context, we see a lot of storm clouds gathering,

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Speaker 7: whether it's in Lebanon with Hesbala, what's already happened with Hamas,

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Speaker 7: and ultimately we're going to have to deal with Iran

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Speaker 7: on all this. And so the President needs to start

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Speaker 7: to set the stage that this is not just a

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Speaker 7: Hamas incursion into Israel, but this is a competition you

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Speaker 7: know that we have going on around the world. We

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Speaker 7: have a hot war in Ukraine, now, a hot war

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Speaker 7: in Israel. We have a lot of tensions around Taiwan.

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Speaker 7: I mean, I don't want to take the attension away

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Speaker 7: from Israel, but the President needs to understand, you know,

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Speaker 7: like communicate to the American public that we live in

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Speaker 7: dangerous times and these are our adversaries. They're not our competitors, right,

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Speaker 7: there are adversaries, and we need to start thinking about

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Speaker 7: what we need to be prepared to do. We have

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Speaker 7: these lame debates in the House of Representatives out whether

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Speaker 7: we give aid to Ukraine at a time when you know,

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Speaker 7: we've got all these adversaries gathering around us. This is

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Speaker 7: not a safe place for Americans in the world today. Well, Genie,

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Speaker 7: we know that forces are amassing along the Gaza border

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Speaker 7: here and that there will likely be a ground invasion.

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Speaker 7: It's just a question of timing and scale. What do

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Speaker 7: you expect to see.

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Speaker 1: From Israel and so what extent will it color the

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Speaker 1: way Americans are looking at this.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it is a very moment. They are

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Speaker 3: gathered at that border. We do expect a ground invasion.

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Speaker 3: They have to respond, and they have to respond with force,

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Speaker 3: and I'm sure we will hear the President support that.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 3: The challenge for Israel, and the challenge for the president

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Speaker 3: is that so much of this is going to be

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Speaker 3: covered on social media and we are going to see

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Speaker 3: live pictures. So the president is going to have to

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Speaker 3: underscore the brutality of what happened, of what Hamas did

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Speaker 3: to the Israelis and to the Palestinians, what they did

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Speaker 3: to their own people over this weekend, and the terror

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Speaker 3: that they wrought and explain why this tough response is necessary,

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Speaker 3: why we need to support it not just today and

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Speaker 3: tomorrow and for the next few days, but for weeks

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Speaker 3: and months going on forward, because that's how long it

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Speaker 3: is going to take. I think he has also got

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Speaker 3: to address what is a looming public opinion challenge for

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Speaker 3: him in the United States and for Israel, which is

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Speaker 3: that you see an awful lot of dissension already in

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Speaker 3: hours after this on college campuses and in cities across

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Speaker 3: this country. He has got to bring people along to

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Speaker 3: explain why this isn't our interest and what we can

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Speaker 3: do as peace loving democratic people to support a proper

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Speaker 3: way forward on this. So it is an enormous challenge

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Speaker 3: for him, and he is doing so with the United States,

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Speaker 3: you know, United States rather one hand behind our back,

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Speaker 3: having no Speaker of the House, and our own domestic

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Speaker 3: politics and something of disarray. So an enormous challenge. But

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Speaker 3: the president has got to be up to it. It

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Speaker 3: has been two days of silence, as you mentioned yesterday,

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Speaker 3: at this time, Joe, they put a lid on the

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Speaker 3: president at eleven yesterday. We haven't heard from him since.

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Speaker 3: He's got to come out strongly here and he's got

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Speaker 3: a promise to be president every day going forward to

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Speaker 3: lead the world through this crisis.

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Speaker 1: Update from Turkey, Rick Davis, I've been waiting to hear

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Speaker 1: what kind of language that Erdawan would use, and it's

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Speaker 1: not good. We heard from him at a news conference

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Speaker 1: with the Austrian Chancellor a short time ago. This is

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Speaker 1: just off the terminal, Rick. He says, what is a

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Speaker 1: US aircraft carrier doing in Israel? This is a direct quote.

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Speaker 1: It is going to shoot around Gaza and cause a

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Speaker 1: very serious massacre. This is of course a NATO member speaking.

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Speaker 1: How much does the US need to worry about President Erduwan?

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Speaker 7: Look, I think we have to always be on alert

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Speaker 7: that Erdwan is under enormous pressure within his own region.

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Speaker 7: He is dependent upon Russia for oil and gas supplies.

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Speaker 7: He treads lightly with Russia on security assistance because he

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Speaker 7: is a member of NATO and we obviously have a

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Speaker 7: shooting war are going on in Europe. So so he

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Speaker 7: finds himself in a very particular position. And not to

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Speaker 7: mention the fact that he has a lot going on

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Speaker 7: with Russia, you know, vis a vis the fighting that's

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Speaker 7: going on in Syria. So they are engaged in the

436
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Speaker 7: backyard of Israel with Russia, you know, fighting you know,

437
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 7: various groups of terrorists. So he is completely conflicted, and

438
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 7: I am confident that that Vladimir Putin is using this

439
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:31,080
Speaker 7: opportunity to try and divide allies and nations in a

440
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 7: way that can create as much disruption for Israel as possible.

441
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:34,959
Speaker 2: Uh.

442
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 7: This is a This is a great day for the

443
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,440
Speaker 7: desk spots around the world because they see America now

444
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 7: having to traffic cop another skirmish in the region that otherwise,

445
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 7: you know, a week ago, seemed like a peaceful, relatively

446
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:55,480
Speaker 7: peaceful location. So I think Erdawan is making good use

447
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 7: of his his his geography, uh and trying to preserve

448
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 7: options for himself. But it doesn't do the United States

449
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 7: any good whatsoever.

450
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 1: GINI, what does Joe Biden need to say about hostages today?

451
00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:08,640
Speaker 1: There are a lot of worries about Americans who might

452
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 1: be held in Gaza as we speak.

453
00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 3: He's got to say, we are going to do everything

454
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,679
Speaker 3: we can to support Israel and to bring all of

455
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 3: the hostages home safely.

456
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 8: You know.

457
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 3: One of the things that we haven't talked a lot about.

458
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 3: It is a major precept of Judaism that you don't

459
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 3: leave anyone behind. So this is not only an issue

460
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 3: of national and political commitment, but also a religious commitment

461
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,880
Speaker 3: for anybody who is Jewish. And so the President has

462
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,640
Speaker 3: got to say, and we just heard from Mark Esper,

463
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,440
Speaker 3: there may be Americans held over there as well other

464
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:46,439
Speaker 3: foreign nationals, that we are going to do everything we

465
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 3: can to support bringing those hostages all home safely. And

466
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 3: you know, just to follow on what you were talking

467
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 3: about about Turkey. This is why the tweet that came

468
00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:00,280
Speaker 3: out of the State Department that they then deleted was

469
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:03,479
Speaker 3: so frustrating for so many people. This was that tweet

470
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 3: which said Anthony Blinken saying and obviously not written by him,

471
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:10,399
Speaker 3: that they were talking to Turkey about a ceasefire, and

472
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:13,080
Speaker 3: then that was deleted. It was the second deleted State

473
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:16,440
Speaker 3: Department tweet since this crisis. They've got to be very

474
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 3: very careful about statements like that. Obviously, again not something

475
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:24,280
Speaker 3: Tony Blinken himself, you know, sent out or was justified,

476
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 3: and they did delete it. But it is very very

477
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:31,200
Speaker 3: concerning because of the situation in Turkey. Yes we should

478
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,240
Speaker 3: be talking to them, but they have to be very

479
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 3: careful about the statements that come out, and that tweet

480
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,960
Speaker 3: was a mammoth mistake by the State Department.

481
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 1: Well, you know, it reminds us how careful President Biden

482
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 1: will need to be with his words. Albeit stern. I

483
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 1: think to your point, Rick, this would be one of

484
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 1: those days where the communications office is saying, no questions, right,

485
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 1: We're going to go out there, We're going to stick

486
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:55,159
Speaker 1: to the script, a strong message, come back behind closed doors.

487
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 7: Yeah, you would think that would be the case. It'll

488
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,160
Speaker 7: be interesting just moments from now from the president directly

489
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 7: and see whether or not he undermines that potential request

490
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 7: by the communications officer to let the speech speak for itself.

491
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:11,159
Speaker 1: That would be your advice.

492
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,639
Speaker 7: That would certainly be my advice, especially if the speech

493
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 7: has any kind of importance to it visa VID, the

494
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 7: American people and the Israeli people.

495
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 1: I gotta believe it will, right.

496
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 7: And the presumption is he's going to say something important

497
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 7: because he's the president and this is an important time.

498
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:30,520
Speaker 7: But like the minute he starts taking questions, because he

499
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 7: loves to take questions. I give him credit for that.

500
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 7: He likes to talk to the American public through the press.

501
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:38,400
Speaker 7: You know, no, tell him what's going to come out

502
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 7: of his mouth? And this is one where you just

503
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:42,359
Speaker 7: want to leave well enough alone and let the speech

504
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:44,159
Speaker 7: or the talk speak for itself.

505
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:46,399
Speaker 1: What do you think, Genie, no freelancing today or is

506
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 1: this the moment where he digs down and speaks passionately

507
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:49,400
Speaker 1: from the heart.

508
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 3: You know, I'm not sure he should freelance. That's never

509
00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 3: a good idea in times like this. But certainly all

510
00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:58,919
Speaker 3: the reporters from Bloomberg and Elter will be trying to

511
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 3: get a question in and he is a very trick's

512
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 3: point tempted to answer them. We know that's his personality.

513
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 3: So they're going to give it a try, and we'll

514
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 3: see if he goes for it.

515
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:10,960
Speaker 1: He should not, however, Okay, you got the advice from

516
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:14,119
Speaker 1: two crack strategists here. I hope the President, of course,

517
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 1: is listening.

518
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

519
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:25,399
Speaker 2: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

520
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on

521
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 2: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

522
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 1: There have been many questions in our time here without

523
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:37,880
Speaker 1: a speaker of the House about what happens with funding

524
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:41,920
Speaker 1: for Israel, never mind Ukraine. With the White House already

525
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 1: making that supplemental request, we do have a headline important

526
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 1: on the terminal right now. Democrats introduce House bill to

527
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 1: restock Israel's Iron Dome. Bipartisan bill to appropriate two billion

528
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 1: dollars for Israel, introduced as we reassemble our panel, Rick

529
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 1: Davis and Genie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick, We've talked

530
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 1: a lot about life without a speaker here. It's not

531
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:07,400
Speaker 1: making things any easier. And incidentally, if you're following along

532
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 1: on your home game, they're going to be behind closed

533
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:13,159
Speaker 1: doors five pm a few hours from now, Steve Scaliez,

534
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:16,159
Speaker 1: Jim Jordan making their case to the Republican Conference. But

535
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:20,400
Speaker 1: we don't expect an actual speaker's vote. Well, I guess

536
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:22,159
Speaker 1: it could happen as soon as tomorrow, Rick, But I

537
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:24,359
Speaker 1: don't think a lot of folks see an outcome in

538
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 1: the immediate term here. To what extent will that hamper

539
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 1: our ability to help Israel?

540
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think that we're a bit tied up. I mean,

541
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 7: even people like Congressman McCall was asking for resolutions of

542
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 7: support to Israel be done on the floor of the

543
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 7: House of Representatives a relatively benign but important measure to

544
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 7: show us support for our ally in the region, and

545
00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 7: we have no mechanism to get a resolution passed. I mean,

546
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 7: that's how dysfunctional the House of Representatives are. I mean, tonight,

547
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 7: the caucus will meet and hear from you know, Steve

548
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 7: Scalize and Jim Jordan. They will ostensibly start trying to

549
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 7: select a caucus candidate. Democrats will unanimously support tonight in

550
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 7: their own version, Hakim Jeffreys for the job of Speaker,

551
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:19,720
Speaker 7: And so they'll be standing on the floor tomorrow morning saying.

552
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 3: Let's vote.

553
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 7: We got a candidate, and so Republican are like, oh,

554
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 7: we'll get right back to you. So you're right. We

555
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 7: don't know how long it's going to last. But there

556
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 7: is more urgency today than there was a week ago

557
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 7: when they broke because the reality is the business of

558
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 7: the House is important and it does need to get going.

559
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 7: And in addition to funding our government in just a

560
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 7: few short weeks, we need to start showing our support

561
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 7: for Israel, and that includes being able to allocate economic

562
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:46,800
Speaker 7: and military aid.

563
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 1: Genie. When you see the headline like this, Democrats introduce

564
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 1: House bill. This is the Republican majority right in the House.

565
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 1: The Democrats introduce House bill to restock Israel's Iron Dome.

566
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 1: Are democrats 's running the House right now?

567
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, they don't have the numbers too, but they're certainly

568
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:09,239
Speaker 3: trying to get their statements out there. And you know,

569
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 3: the reality is, we hope that this what's happened in

570
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 3: Israel introduces some urgency to the Republicans on all of this,

571
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 3: but the fact is that the Speaker's vote is going

572
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 3: to have very little to do with messaging to the

573
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 3: outside world or even the rest of the United States.

574
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 3: It's going to be about the rules of the speaker,

575
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 3: how you overthrow and funding the government, all the things

576
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 3: it was about before this happened. And it just shows

577
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 3: us once again how this kind of dysfunction in our

578
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 3: own domestic politics has in real world consequences on everybody

579
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:48,200
Speaker 3: around the world and ourselves included, and has to be addressed.

580
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 3: But there's little mechanism to do that. So we suspect

581
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 3: we will get votes, as nobody seems ready or nearly

582
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,920
Speaker 3: close to the two seventeen to eighteen necessary to become

583
00:30:57,960 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 3: speaker on the Republican.

584
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 1: Side, there's a debate within the Republican Conference, Rick Davis

585
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 1: about whether to pass a rule that requires the votes

586
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 1: to be counted before they bring this speaker's battle to

587
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 1: the floor. So you get behind closed doors, you pick

588
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 1: a Jordan, Escalise, whomever gets to two seventeen, and not

589
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 1: until that moment do we go in front of the

590
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 1: American people. Does that need to happen?

591
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:26,479
Speaker 7: That's what's happening. That's the plan to hopefully produce a

592
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 7: caucus not just a majority of the caucus, but literally

593
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 7: the entire weucus stands behind a winner. You can assume

594
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:39,959
Speaker 7: that there'll be a few members who choose to go

595
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 7: the other way, a different way, but the reality is

596
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:48,160
Speaker 7: it would be an immense embarrassment to recreate the fifteen

597
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 7: ballot slog that Kevin McCarthy had to go through to

598
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 7: become speaker. And if neither one of these candidates actually

599
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 7: can get there, the question then is who within the

600
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:02,040
Speaker 7: caucus can try and create a you know, sort of

601
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 7: coalition to rule the Republicans. And and and we haven't

602
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 7: gotten anywhere near there, right, We've got to test Scalise

603
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 7: and Jordan to see whether or not they can actually

604
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 7: move votes from one to the other. And if not, uh,

605
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 7: then people are going to be starting to look at

606
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 7: other people like hern or you know, others to to

607
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:26,239
Speaker 7: see if there's a third, fourth, or fifth candidate and

608
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 7: ultimately potentially even Kevin McCarthy again uh, to serve as

609
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 7: speaker and unite the caucus.

610
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 1: We spent some time here in the bloomberg of Washington

611
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:38,560
Speaker 1: Bureau today with Larry Hogan, the former governor of Maryland,

612
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 1: of course Republican who's on all the shortlists of potential

613
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 1: third party candidate, no labels, what have you. But of

614
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 1: course you know, he was one of the Republicans to

615
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 1: come out early against Donald Trump and sort of buck

616
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 1: the conventional wisdom in his party. And he's dismayed.

617
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 2: At what's going on right now.

618
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 1: Here's here's how he put it earlier today.

619
00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 9: It would have been a mistake anyway. And and then

620
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 9: it's in the middle of an election year. We're trying

621
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 9: to show that we can govern, and we're showing that

622
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 9: we can't. We're proving what everybody hates about Washington. It's

623
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 9: nothing but divisiveness and dysfunction that they can't get out

624
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 9: of their own way. And to make matters worse, We're

625
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 9: now in multiple crisises around the world, with the war

626
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 9: in Ukraine and this war in the Middle East, and

627
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 9: we're rudderless.

628
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 1: We are rudderless, Genie. What are Democrats to do in

629
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 1: the midst of all this? Just keep voting for Hakim

630
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 1: Jeffries every rounder? Are they engaging with the Republican leadership

631
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:40,479
Speaker 1: as it stands now? Patrick McHenry, whoever else qualifies to

632
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 1: try to create a relationship, to try to maybe strike

633
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 1: a deal to move this forward.

634
00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, at this point, all we know is that there

635
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 3: are lock step behind takeem Jeffries, as they have been

636
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 3: since this House began. Would that change? I'm not sure,

637
00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 3: but i will tell you we do hear from people

638
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 3: in the last forty eight hours on the Democratic side,

639
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:07,240
Speaker 3: and I'm talking just people in passing constituents who say

640
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 3: Democrats should do something, particularly given what's going on in Israel,

641
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 3: to get even a temporary speaker in place. So they

642
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:18,839
Speaker 3: may be hearing some of that from their constituents who

643
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 3: say enough is enough. And you know what's fascinating to

644
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:25,919
Speaker 3: Hogan's point, You go down to Matt Gates District while

645
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 3: he is being you know, really you know look down

646
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 3: at in Washington, d C. In his own district, they

647
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 3: are cheering on what he did. And that is the

648
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 3: problem for people like Larry Hogan and others. They are

649
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:40,880
Speaker 3: getting support the Matt's Gates of the world and the

650
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 3: Marjorie Taylor Greens in their own districts, and so the

651
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 3: idea that anything would be different this time around is

652
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 3: probably not in the often.

653
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,680
Speaker 1: Rick, Larry Hogan was asked about Matt Gates at a

654
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:55,879
Speaker 1: different part of the conversation. You referred to him as

655
00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:58,759
Speaker 1: a cancer on the party and the institution.

656
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:01,400
Speaker 7: So is it surgery or chemo?

657
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 1: I don't know about that. You'll have to tell me.

658
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:07,400
Speaker 1: You're the insider. I'm Joe Matthew and Washington, Rick Davis

659
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 1: and Genie Shanzeno.

660
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the

661
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:18,360
Speaker 2: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

662
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:21,800
Speaker 2: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

663
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:24,759
Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

664
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

665
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:33,919
Speaker 1: Welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe

666
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 1: Matthew in Washington alongside Kaylee Lines, who joins us for

667
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:40,319
Speaker 1: the conversation every day at this time, and Kaylee, we

668
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:42,799
Speaker 1: thought we would have heard from President Biden already, this

669
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 1: would be our post speech analysis with you, and he

670
00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 1: hasn't started yet, and there's a good reason for that.

671
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:50,800
Speaker 1: He was actually on the phone with Benjamin at and Yahoo.

672
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:54,239
Speaker 1: As we understand, the Vice President was as well, kind

673
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 1: of outlining the actions taking place here, and Bloomberg is

674
00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:58,759
Speaker 1: reporting that he's going to take a pretty hard line

675
00:35:58,880 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 1: in this address.

676
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:03,040
Speaker 10: We're expecting him to outline specifically what the US is

677
00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:05,840
Speaker 10: doing to support Israel after these attacks from Hamas and

678
00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:08,319
Speaker 10: amid the ongoing violence that we are still very much

679
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 10: seeing in the region at the moment. But of course

680
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 10: it becomes a question of what exactly the President is

681
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,839
Speaker 10: going to promise and whether or not he needs congressional

682
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:18,720
Speaker 10: buy and buy it in order to actually deliver, because

683
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 10: if it's any aid that requires congressional approval, there is

684
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:24,359
Speaker 10: a giant question mark, Joe as to how quickly that

685
00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 10: approval can actually be granted, considering there is no Speaker

686
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:27,919
Speaker 10: of the House.

687
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 1: We just finished a conversation with Rick Davis and Genie Shanze,

688
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 1: and I don't think either of them see a speaker

689
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 1: emerging by the end of the week, never mind something tomorrow.

690
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,200
Speaker 1: But that is actually what the Republican Conference is hoping.

691
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:39,040
Speaker 10: They're going to try.

692
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:42,720
Speaker 1: They'll try. Whether Jim Jordan Stevescals get to two seventeen

693
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 1: is another thing, but it might take a small miracle

694
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:45,160
Speaker 1: for that to happen.

695
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 10: Yeah, you need the majority number in order to actually

696
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:51,120
Speaker 10: get the speaker's gavel, and if you're kind of splitting

697
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:54,719
Speaker 10: votes in the different factions of the Republican Conference, it's

698
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 10: hard to figure out how exactly the math is going

699
00:36:57,200 --> 00:36:59,439
Speaker 10: to work, and frankly, whether they're going to be ready

700
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:01,919
Speaker 10: to bring something to the floor in the next, say,

701
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:03,319
Speaker 10: twenty four hours in r.

702
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:05,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, my question right now is you know, is

703
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:08,320
Speaker 1: Hakim Jeffrey's running the House? You see Democrats introduced a

704
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 1: bill to restock Israel's Iron Dome, which is exactly what

705
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 1: you're talking about here. You're not going to get anywhere

706
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 1: without a speaker though, or the rest of the House,

707
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 1: and so a lot of question marks. As we wait

708
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:22,880
Speaker 1: to hear from the President. Will bring you those remarks

709
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 1: live once again and a great opportunity to bring in

710
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:29,880
Speaker 1: the general, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, retired, former Commanding General

711
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:32,440
Speaker 1: US Army Europe. It's great to see you, General, Welcome

712
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:36,880
Speaker 1: back to Bloomberg. We have very specific questions about what's

713
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:40,719
Speaker 1: going to happen next here as this retaliation unfolds. We

714
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:43,439
Speaker 1: know that the first order of business, though, is what's

715
00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 1: been described essentially as a hostage rescue mission. To what

716
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:51,080
Speaker 1: extent can the Israelis, working with the US get these

717
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 1: hostages out of Gaza before this ground invasion.

718
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:59,280
Speaker 5: Well, of course, what Hamas has done and the reports

719
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 5: that came out today the infants that were murdered just

720
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 5: really highlights who it is Israelis are dealing with and

721
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:13,880
Speaker 5: what kind of people Hamas has probably a major concern

722
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:18,360
Speaker 5: for the IDF Israeli Defense Forces. How do they carry

723
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 5: out their mission and also try to get hostages out

724
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:24,719
Speaker 5: of there. That's going to be very difficult because Hamas

725
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:27,759
Speaker 5: of course, will be using these hostages exactly for the

726
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 5: purpose of making it difficult for the IDF. At some

727
00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 5: point the mission is going to have to be not

728
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 5: only is it hostage rescue, but also the response to

729
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 5: Hamas they're not going to be able to wait a

730
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 5: lot longer before they have to put troops in there,

731
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:45,720
Speaker 5: I believe.

732
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 10: Okay, So if you think that moment is coming, it

733
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 10: also is a question of how this fighting should be

734
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 10: done general, how do you fight this kind of war?

735
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 10: Obviously we have all seen the images videos in the

736
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 10: past several days of the Iron Dome in action, you know,

737
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 10: blocking missiles coming from Gaza, and yet this is also

738
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 10: kind of door to door warfare in some sense, right,

739
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 10: what does Israel need to be utilizing in this moment?

740
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:20,280
Speaker 5: Well, Kaylee, you've touched on a couple of important points here.

741
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:25,360
Speaker 5: There are different aspects to this fight. The missiles and

742
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 5: rockets that are coming. Still, they're coming from somewhere. I

743
00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:34,800
Speaker 5: mean Hamas has belied they are being resupplied by Iran.

744
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:37,160
Speaker 5: And so if you can step back from the door

745
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:39,760
Speaker 5: to door fighting for just a minute and think strategically,

746
00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 5: this is connected to Russia. I mean, Russia is who's

747
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:46,960
Speaker 5: benefiting from this to see the US and others distracted.

748
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:50,600
Speaker 5: Nobody's even mentioned Ukraine in the last seventy two hours,

749
00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:53,279
Speaker 5: and I think that this is Russia and it's the

750
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:58,280
Speaker 5: most important ally Iran opening a second front to relieve

751
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:02,960
Speaker 5: pressure on Russia to distract support away from Ukraine. Iran,

752
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 5: of course, which is the closest ally to Russia, has

753
00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 5: been wanting to prevent Israel and Saudi Arabia, Iran's number

754
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:15,759
Speaker 5: one rival, from coming closer together. So that's the strategic

755
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:19,440
Speaker 5: level of what's going on, and so keeping the pressure

756
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:24,319
Speaker 5: on Russia will help reduce I think Iran's ability to

757
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:28,280
Speaker 5: help Hamas and his Bolah. Now to the actual fighting

758
00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:33,640
Speaker 5: that's going to happen once it begins. Interestingly, the Israelis

759
00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:37,319
Speaker 5: have mobilizer called up three hundred thousand reservers. I mean

760
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:42,520
Speaker 5: that's everybody. So they are thinking long term massive combat power.

761
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:45,840
Speaker 5: But I think also they don't want to go rushing

762
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:48,480
Speaker 5: in there. They're going to I think they'll take their time,

763
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:51,000
Speaker 5: doing what they can to get as many hostages out

764
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 5: of there as possible. They're going to be conscious that

765
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:56,040
Speaker 5: the world is watching to see how much damage is

766
00:40:56,080 --> 00:41:01,880
Speaker 5: done to civilian infrastructure inside the gas's but they are

767
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:04,319
Speaker 5: not going to mess around. They're going to do what

768
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 5: they have to I think, to punish Humas so much

769
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:10,799
Speaker 5: that it's a very long time before they try this again.

770
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:15,840
Speaker 1: We have eyes on the State dining Room and the

771
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:18,719
Speaker 1: podium that has been set up for President Biden, we

772
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:20,799
Speaker 1: will be hearing from the President. Will bring you his

773
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:23,840
Speaker 1: remarks live when he is set to speak, or about

774
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:27,960
Speaker 1: an hour and ten minutes late for his appointment right now. General.

775
00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 1: We spoke earlier in the broadcast with the former Secretary

776
00:41:31,160 --> 00:41:34,319
Speaker 1: of Defense Mark Esper, who talked to us about the

777
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:38,120
Speaker 1: ability for the US to transfer American weapons that are

778
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:43,319
Speaker 1: being actually housed in Israel to Israel for their use.

779
00:41:44,120 --> 00:41:46,560
Speaker 1: Is that something that should be happening now? Do we

780
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:49,279
Speaker 1: kind of unlock the doors and give them everything we've got,

781
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:52,400
Speaker 1: or do we need to hold some of these munitions

782
00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:53,239
Speaker 1: for our own use?

783
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:58,440
Speaker 5: Well. I think the President has stated that rock solid

784
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 5: support of the United States Israel has have other countries.

785
00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:05,560
Speaker 5: So I imagine if the Israelis asked for specific things,

786
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:09,839
Speaker 5: to include weapons that might be stored inside Israel, that

787
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:13,239
Speaker 5: they will probably be handed over unless there is some

788
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:15,759
Speaker 5: overarching reason that we would not want to do that.

789
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:18,960
Speaker 5: But I imagine this kind of thing will go quickly

790
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:22,879
Speaker 5: once the decision is made. But one of the key

791
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:26,320
Speaker 5: factors is and if I was the Israeli ground commander,

792
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:28,880
Speaker 5: I would want to know what is my mission? What

793
00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:32,880
Speaker 5: is the expectation? And they're not just going into Gaza

794
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:35,640
Speaker 5: to kill a bunch of people. Is it going to

795
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:41,400
Speaker 5: be a punishment mission, a punitive mission or is it

796
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:43,040
Speaker 5: going to be something Are they going to have to

797
00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:48,000
Speaker 5: occupy Gaza for the long term? That calls for a

798
00:42:48,080 --> 00:42:50,919
Speaker 5: different sort of approach to doing this, and that will

799
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:54,200
Speaker 5: also require a lot of people and there will be

800
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:57,160
Speaker 5: a lot of casualties. So what is the mission? And

801
00:42:57,200 --> 00:42:59,040
Speaker 5: then if I know what the mission is, and that

802
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:02,080
Speaker 5: tells me what kind of the munitions and other weapons

803
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:03,799
Speaker 5: systems and support I'm going to need.

804
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:08,800
Speaker 10: Well to your point on the mission, does the mission

805
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 10: change if other players get drawn into this in a

806
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:14,920
Speaker 10: more material way? General, you're just speaking about the notion

807
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:19,000
Speaker 10: of Iran supporting this effort, potentially Russia by extension. What

808
00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:21,719
Speaker 10: if Iran were to get drawn into this in a

809
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:25,239
Speaker 10: more material race, should Israel hypothetically decide to retaliate for

810
00:43:25,280 --> 00:43:28,839
Speaker 10: supporting Hamas for example, or the role of Hesbealah in this?

811
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:31,719
Speaker 10: How are you viewing the Iran wildcard right now?

812
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:37,000
Speaker 5: So this is an important consideration for the Israeli staff,

813
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 5: the commander and staff. They don't they want They will

814
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 5: not all go rushing into Gaza because they have to

815
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:46,880
Speaker 5: be concerned about in the West Bank, they have to

816
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:50,799
Speaker 5: be worried about Hasbellah in the north of Israel. So

817
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:53,920
Speaker 5: I think that they will be very alert to all

818
00:43:54,000 --> 00:43:59,200
Speaker 5: the different possibilities. They'll maintain forces and capabilities that could

819
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 5: flex to where other requirements might arise, and I think

820
00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:07,359
Speaker 5: it would be I think Iran actually does not want

821
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 5: to get drawn into this. I think they're quite happy

822
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:11,120
Speaker 5: to have Hamas and has be allowed to do all

823
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:14,839
Speaker 5: the fighting Iran being able to stay out of that

824
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:20,440
Speaker 5: to avoid strikes not only from Israel but from anywhere else.

825
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 5: If that's being considered, So the Iranians will have I mean,

826
00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:28,279
Speaker 5: they know what kind of a punch the Israelis have,

827
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:31,560
Speaker 5: and so I think that they are not right ready

828
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:34,839
Speaker 5: yet to see it expand in that way.

829
00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:38,680
Speaker 1: Well, so what are we in for here when this

830
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:43,200
Speaker 1: retaliation really kicks into gear. Obviously Israeli troops are amassing

831
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:47,400
Speaker 1: on the Gaza border general, will Israel have any regard

832
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:51,720
Speaker 1: for Palestinian civilians who are living in Gaza?

833
00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 5: Yeah? Absolutely, Look the President Natya who has been telling

834
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:01,640
Speaker 5: Palestinians they need to leave. They need to move away

835
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:08,839
Speaker 5: from places where Israeli's forces are likely to strike. And

836
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 5: I think the Israelis know that the whole world is

837
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:15,000
Speaker 5: watching to see. You know, will the Israelis be indiscriminate?

838
00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:20,240
Speaker 5: Will they just launch weapons into the heavily, very densely

839
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:24,600
Speaker 5: populated area, or or will they be consideration given I

840
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:28,479
Speaker 5: think there will Hamas knows this. Of course they will

841
00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:34,600
Speaker 5: use even their own the Gozins as shields. They will

842
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:38,680
Speaker 5: they will use mosques to store ammunition and to operate.

843
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:40,920
Speaker 5: So now this is this will be tough at the

844
00:45:41,000 --> 00:45:43,279
Speaker 5: end of the day. It comes down to what is

845
00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:46,440
Speaker 5: the mission? What is the desired end state that Israel has?

846
00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:49,920
Speaker 5: Is this punitive or are they thinking they may have

847
00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:54,279
Speaker 5: to occupy a portion of Gaza to try and eradicate

848
00:45:54,440 --> 00:45:58,080
Speaker 5: it as a base or attacks against Israel.

849
00:46:00,400 --> 00:46:00,840
Speaker 3: In general.

850
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:05,280
Speaker 10: There's been a lot of comparison here to Hamas and ISIS,

851
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:07,720
Speaker 10: and the idea that maybe Hamas needs to be targeted

852
00:46:07,719 --> 00:46:10,799
Speaker 10: in the same way that Isis was health fair? Is

853
00:46:10,840 --> 00:46:14,040
Speaker 10: that comparison and where are there difficulties in making that

854
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:17,600
Speaker 10: kind of comparison when viewing the terrorist organization itself as

855
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:18,520
Speaker 10: it's been designated.

856
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:24,160
Speaker 5: Well, that's an interesting comparison. I think the similarity, of course,

857
00:46:24,280 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 5: or that these are terrorist organizations that absolutely do not

858
00:46:27,640 --> 00:46:31,440
Speaker 5: care about whether or not they kill innocent people if

859
00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:35,920
Speaker 5: it helps them accomplish their goal. Hamas does not care

860
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:39,319
Speaker 5: about Palestinian people. This is all about trying to kill

861
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:44,759
Speaker 5: as many Israelis as they possibly can. So when you

862
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:50,319
Speaker 5: talk about fighting against ISIS or fighting against Hamas, and

863
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 5: the target is similar, but the context the environment is different.

864
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:58,719
Speaker 5: I mean ISIS of course was spread over much of

865
00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:03,520
Speaker 5: the Middle East and Africa, whereas Hamas is a very

866
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:08,600
Speaker 5: specific organization in a specific place, which, by the way,

867
00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:17,160
Speaker 5: has a rival organization as well, another Palestinian organization that

868
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:23,280
Speaker 5: is not as militant as is Hamas. So the Israelis

869
00:47:23,320 --> 00:47:25,560
Speaker 5: will have to go after that in a way different

870
00:47:25,600 --> 00:47:28,000
Speaker 5: from the way we have gone after ISIS.

871
00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:32,480
Speaker 1: General, it's great to have you. We appreciate your insights today.

872
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:35,359
Speaker 1: Obviously something that we're going to continue talking about. We'd

873
00:47:35,360 --> 00:47:38,520
Speaker 1: love to include you in our conversations going forward. General

874
00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:41,000
Speaker 1: Ben Hodges a former Commanding General US Army Europe with

875
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:44,240
Speaker 1: US here live on Bloomberg. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington,

876
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 1: along with Kaylie Lines as we bring you the show

877
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:49,719
Speaker 1: here on the radio, on the satellite, and on YouTube,

878
00:47:50,080 --> 00:47:52,759
Speaker 1: where you can join us right now search Bloomberg Global News.

879
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 1: Our cameras are up and our guests are smiling, although

880
00:47:56,080 --> 00:47:58,239
Speaker 1: there's not a lot to smile about today, Kaylie, with

881
00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:00,640
Speaker 1: the news that's coming from overseas and here in Washington.

882
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:03,439
Speaker 1: We have to keep getting back to the fact that

883
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:05,440
Speaker 1: this is actually a very important day in the capital

884
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:08,479
Speaker 1: as well as the Republican Conference meets behind closed doors

885
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:11,440
Speaker 1: to try to coalesce around a candidate for speaker, and

886
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:14,040
Speaker 1: as we began this hour, there's no clear direction in

887
00:48:14,080 --> 00:48:16,759
Speaker 1: where that is going. All these stories overlap when it

888
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:18,040
Speaker 1: comes to the matter of funding.

889
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:21,839
Speaker 10: Absolutely, as we await remarks from President Biden, who is

890
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:26,160
Speaker 10: going to support express US support for Israel. Congress may

891
00:48:26,200 --> 00:48:28,359
Speaker 10: have a very large role to play there, and as

892
00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:31,319
Speaker 10: you said, the Joe Congress, while paying attention to this

893
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:34,680
Speaker 10: conflict obviously we've heard a number of members outspoken about

894
00:48:34,680 --> 00:48:37,680
Speaker 10: it in recent days, also has the distraction of trying

895
00:48:37,719 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 10: to elect new leadership, trying to get someone the speaker's gabble,

896
00:48:41,560 --> 00:48:44,879
Speaker 10: and they're going to try further this evening. Theoretically five

897
00:48:44,920 --> 00:48:47,239
Speaker 10: pm is when the Republican conference will meet to try

898
00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:50,000
Speaker 10: to coalesce around one candidate. But right now it is

899
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:52,680
Speaker 10: so very fractured it's very hard to see how you

900
00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:53,920
Speaker 10: get to a majority vote.

901
00:48:54,040 --> 00:48:56,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely right. They're going to gather in the Ways

902
00:48:56,800 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 1: and Means Committee room at five pm, just in time

903
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:01,920
Speaker 1: for balance of power. I figured they're all going to

904
00:49:01,920 --> 00:49:05,640
Speaker 1: gather around the television. The candidate's forum at one time, though,

905
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:08,000
Speaker 1: was supposed to be on television. Just when you think

906
00:49:08,000 --> 00:49:10,200
Speaker 1: about the stuff that has being gone over the last week,

907
00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:13,640
Speaker 1: for about twelve hours, that was a Fox broadcast that

908
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:16,640
Speaker 1: it wasn't Is he still doing the thing behind closed doors?

909
00:49:17,040 --> 00:49:19,280
Speaker 1: I don't even know where that stands right now, because

910
00:49:19,280 --> 00:49:21,279
Speaker 1: they've got to make their case here and they're meeting

911
00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:23,480
Speaker 1: as well with the delegations. You were outside that Texas

912
00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 1: delegation meeting a couple of days ago. Today, the Florida delegation,

913
00:49:26,719 --> 00:49:29,960
Speaker 1: that's twenty members as they pick their way through the conference,

914
00:49:30,560 --> 00:49:32,640
Speaker 1: trying to find enough people to make this work, and

915
00:49:32,760 --> 00:49:35,319
Speaker 1: so far neither can make that claim.

916
00:49:35,400 --> 00:49:37,880
Speaker 10: Yeah, and you mentioned the Florida delegation. Yeah, there's a

917
00:49:38,120 --> 00:49:42,360
Speaker 10: Republican congressmen from Florida. Carlo Samenez said he'd only vote

918
00:49:43,080 --> 00:49:44,120
Speaker 10: for Kevin McCarthy.

919
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 3: Uh huh.

920
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:50,640
Speaker 1: The guy another representative from Florida got fired, right, So

921
00:49:50,760 --> 00:49:52,240
Speaker 1: that's going to be an interesting meeting.

922
00:49:56,040 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 2: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

923
00:49:59,600 --> 00:50:02,759
Speaker 2: Live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

924
00:50:02,840 --> 00:50:05,960
Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on

925
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:07,960
Speaker 2: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

926
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:13,360
Speaker 1: I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington alongside Kaylee Lines. This is

927
00:50:13,360 --> 00:50:16,480
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Sound on the fastest show in politics, and just

928
00:50:16,520 --> 00:50:20,680
Speaker 1: heard from President Biden. Kayley taken a pretty hard line

929
00:50:20,800 --> 00:50:23,440
Speaker 1: on the situation in Israel. It's pretty difficult to tell

930
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:25,239
Speaker 1: what's going to happen though in the next twenty four

931
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 1: to forty eight hours when it comes to Israel's own strategy.

932
00:50:28,200 --> 00:50:30,160
Speaker 1: They've been amassing troops on the border of Gaza for

933
00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:32,279
Speaker 1: some time, but we've got American hostages, as we've just

934
00:50:32,360 --> 00:50:36,040
Speaker 1: learned you pointed out here along with many Israeli civilians

935
00:50:36,400 --> 00:50:38,600
Speaker 1: who are being held captive, and that's certainly going to

936
00:50:38,800 --> 00:50:40,399
Speaker 1: direct what comes next.

937
00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:43,200
Speaker 10: Yeah, and President Biden saying the US is engaged with

938
00:50:43,320 --> 00:50:47,120
Speaker 10: Israel in terms of how to best retrieve those hostages.

939
00:50:47,200 --> 00:50:49,239
Speaker 10: But he did say in the speech, as he has

940
00:50:49,280 --> 00:50:52,040
Speaker 10: said over the course of the last several days, that

941
00:50:52,160 --> 00:50:55,640
Speaker 10: Israel has a right and indeed a duty to respond

942
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:58,239
Speaker 10: to these vicious attacks. The idea that the US is

943
00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:02,520
Speaker 10: supporting Israel, and I wonder if that does extend, will extend,

944
00:51:02,560 --> 00:51:06,319
Speaker 10: should they actually have to occupy it as part of

945
00:51:06,760 --> 00:51:07,800
Speaker 10: this disputed area.

946
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:10,160
Speaker 1: We have a lot still to learn a broad end

947
00:51:10,160 --> 00:51:12,040
Speaker 1: here in Washington, which is why we want to add

948
00:51:12,040 --> 00:51:15,440
Speaker 1: the voice of Jennifer Welsh, one of the best titles

949
00:51:15,480 --> 00:51:20,960
Speaker 1: I think at Bloomberg in Washington. Bloomberg Economics Chief geoeconomics analyst,

950
00:51:21,400 --> 00:51:23,600
Speaker 1: Jenny Welcome. It's great to see you. Welcome to the table,

951
00:51:23,600 --> 00:51:26,680
Speaker 1: and welcome to Bloomberg here in Washington. You're formerly of

952
00:51:26,680 --> 00:51:28,960
Speaker 1: the Biden administration, you worked with the CIA, and you

953
00:51:29,000 --> 00:51:30,839
Speaker 1: have a unique view on what's going on here when

954
00:51:30,840 --> 00:51:35,520
Speaker 1: we consider the idea of geoeconomics. Though, how are you

955
00:51:35,640 --> 00:51:38,680
Speaker 1: viewing what's happening here in Israel with a stock market

956
00:51:38,719 --> 00:51:41,919
Speaker 1: that seems to think there's no immediate impact. What's got

957
00:51:41,920 --> 00:51:42,440
Speaker 1: your attention?

958
00:51:43,120 --> 00:51:45,240
Speaker 11: No, Thanks so much for having me first of all.

959
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:48,120
Speaker 11: So obviously very early stages at this conflict. There's a

960
00:51:48,160 --> 00:51:51,000
Speaker 11: lot of different ways in which it can involve, including

961
00:51:51,040 --> 00:51:53,040
Speaker 11: the amassing of troops suggests that there is a major

962
00:51:53,080 --> 00:51:56,399
Speaker 11: military operation in the future, at least towards Gaza. There's

963
00:51:56,440 --> 00:51:59,359
Speaker 11: also this open question of Iran's involvement and what that

964
00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:02,160
Speaker 11: might lead to. And the larger the scale of the

965
00:52:02,160 --> 00:52:04,920
Speaker 11: conflict obviously the larger the market impact. But if you

966
00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:07,320
Speaker 11: look back at some of the past commerces we've seen

967
00:52:07,640 --> 00:52:10,160
Speaker 11: between Israel and Gaza, there tends to be a pretty

968
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:13,880
Speaker 11: limited impact, in part because we're not affecting oil directly here.

969
00:52:14,360 --> 00:52:16,280
Speaker 11: I think we'll just have to see how the conflict evolves,

970
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:18,120
Speaker 11: though it is better assess the market reaction.

971
00:52:18,640 --> 00:52:18,839
Speaker 3: Well.

972
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:21,919
Speaker 10: Of course, you heard the former Speaker Kevin McCarthy in

973
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:25,279
Speaker 10: the Capitol yesterday speaking as no one else seemed like

974
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:27,680
Speaker 10: they were going to step up and fill that void

975
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:30,480
Speaker 10: at the time, Joe, as we discussed yesterday, but he

976
00:52:30,520 --> 00:52:32,640
Speaker 10: talked about the idea of the US needing to more

977
00:52:32,640 --> 00:52:37,600
Speaker 10: strictly impose sanctions on Iranian oil, and that kind of

978
00:52:37,680 --> 00:52:40,520
Speaker 10: is one of the concerns, right, the flow of oil,

979
00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:43,160
Speaker 10: not just from Iran, whether that supply could be restricted,

980
00:52:43,160 --> 00:52:46,480
Speaker 10: but also what Iran may do in retaliation in the

981
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:48,120
Speaker 10: strait of hooor moves. Can you just kind of walk

982
00:52:48,200 --> 00:52:50,560
Speaker 10: us through what that could look like hypothetically.

983
00:52:50,680 --> 00:52:53,280
Speaker 11: No, I think that's a really good question. And again

984
00:52:53,400 --> 00:52:57,319
Speaker 11: we know that Iran has been watching this closely. No

985
00:52:57,440 --> 00:53:01,680
Speaker 11: direct evidence of Iranian involvement yet, including coming from senior

986
00:53:01,680 --> 00:53:04,760
Speaker 11: officials in Israel from the White House. Biden just spoke

987
00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:07,879
Speaker 11: to this, as did John Kirby earlier today. I think

988
00:53:07,920 --> 00:53:10,160
Speaker 11: it remains to be seeing the reaction there, and I

989
00:53:10,200 --> 00:53:13,040
Speaker 11: think that will enlarge part drive Israel's reaction towards Iran.

990
00:53:13,120 --> 00:53:15,600
Speaker 11: I think another key variable here is what happens to

991
00:53:15,800 --> 00:53:20,480
Speaker 11: the frozen then unfrozen funds, which billion dollars exactly which

992
00:53:20,680 --> 00:53:22,880
Speaker 11: the White House has said earlier and made very clear

993
00:53:22,960 --> 00:53:25,880
Speaker 11: that they could suspend that again if they felt the

994
00:53:25,960 --> 00:53:28,799
Speaker 11: need to. There's clearly a deterrence effort here to try

995
00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:31,200
Speaker 11: and prevent any other regional forces from trying to take

996
00:53:31,239 --> 00:53:33,319
Speaker 11: advantage of the situation, which is why I think they

997
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:35,280
Speaker 11: made that threat clear and put it on the table.

998
00:53:35,760 --> 00:53:38,200
Speaker 11: But still very much an evolving situation here.

999
00:53:39,120 --> 00:53:43,359
Speaker 1: So when we consider economic impact. Your broad view then

1000
00:53:43,920 --> 00:53:46,640
Speaker 1: drives this through the oil market, right, are we missing

1001
00:53:46,680 --> 00:53:49,560
Speaker 1: the ball somewhere else when it comes to consumer behavior

1002
00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:52,120
Speaker 1: the impact on travel, for instance, So there are other

1003
00:53:52,160 --> 00:53:54,279
Speaker 1: areas of the economy that could be impacted by a

1004
00:53:54,280 --> 00:53:55,000
Speaker 1: conflict like this.

1005
00:53:55,160 --> 00:53:57,840
Speaker 11: I think there's definitely other areas that can be affected. Obviously,

1006
00:53:58,120 --> 00:54:00,879
Speaker 11: Israel is also a major tech cub There's a lot

1007
00:54:00,880 --> 00:54:03,520
Speaker 11: of industries that run through this region. So I don't

1008
00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:05,880
Speaker 11: mean to simplify it just in terms of oil, but

1009
00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:08,040
Speaker 11: I do think that oil tends to be kind of

1010
00:54:08,080 --> 00:54:09,719
Speaker 11: the big marker in the region in terms of what

1011
00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:12,400
Speaker 11: people are looking for and when they're reacting to events

1012
00:54:12,400 --> 00:54:15,719
Speaker 11: in the region. That being said, I also think it's

1013
00:54:15,760 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 11: early days to go too far in saying that the

1014
00:54:18,600 --> 00:54:20,799
Speaker 11: rest of the supply chains and the region are going

1015
00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:23,000
Speaker 11: to shut down at this point. I think a huge

1016
00:54:23,000 --> 00:54:25,880
Speaker 11: part of this might be how long Israel can sustain

1017
00:54:26,000 --> 00:54:28,160
Speaker 11: Iron Dome and its defenses and make sure that the

1018
00:54:28,160 --> 00:54:30,360
Speaker 11: rest of its economy can continue to run as normal.

1019
00:54:30,719 --> 00:54:33,520
Speaker 11: Right now, I don't see any indication that that's under challenge.

1020
00:54:33,560 --> 00:54:36,359
Speaker 11: The US is already sending resources towards air is Reel.

1021
00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:39,560
Speaker 11: There's a stockpile available in country that can help reinforce.

1022
00:54:39,960 --> 00:54:41,520
Speaker 11: But the duration of the conflict is going to be

1023
00:54:41,560 --> 00:54:46,480
Speaker 11: a key variable here. Obviously, Ukraine's been stretching global ammunition resources,

1024
00:54:46,960 --> 00:54:49,839
Speaker 11: the DIB, the US sorry defense industrial base is under

1025
00:54:49,840 --> 00:54:52,880
Speaker 11: strain as it is, So there's a question looming on

1026
00:54:52,920 --> 00:54:56,520
Speaker 11: the horizon of if this extends much further, will there

1027
00:54:56,680 --> 00:54:59,359
Speaker 11: be enough resources to sustain Tho's air defenses, allow their

1028
00:54:59,360 --> 00:55:01,120
Speaker 11: economy toction as normal.

1029
00:55:01,160 --> 00:55:03,799
Speaker 10: Well, and just the question of can additional resources go

1030
00:55:03,920 --> 00:55:06,879
Speaker 10: through the appropriate approval process in a timely manner given

1031
00:55:06,880 --> 00:55:09,240
Speaker 10: what we're seeing in the legislative branch at the moment.

1032
00:55:09,280 --> 00:55:11,480
Speaker 10: President Biden and part of the speech he just gave

1033
00:55:11,520 --> 00:55:13,399
Speaker 10: said we will make sure Israel has what it needs

1034
00:55:13,440 --> 00:55:15,239
Speaker 10: to take care of its citizens. So that speaks to

1035
00:55:15,320 --> 00:55:18,800
Speaker 10: kind of more of the economic element here and defend itself.

1036
00:55:19,440 --> 00:55:22,120
Speaker 10: But is that something that can be guaranteed at this moment?

1037
00:55:22,239 --> 00:55:25,680
Speaker 10: How does what is happening on Capitol Hill make what

1038
00:55:25,719 --> 00:55:30,440
Speaker 10: the White House is trying to promise more difficult.

1039
00:55:29,520 --> 00:55:32,120
Speaker 11: The current moment. The resources that are already on their

1040
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:35,759
Speaker 11: way to Israel, so additional ammunition and other equipment to

1041
00:55:35,760 --> 00:55:38,680
Speaker 11: help sustain Iron Dome Duty has made clear that they

1042
00:55:38,680 --> 00:55:41,120
Speaker 11: can send that with the current resources and authorities don't

1043
00:55:41,120 --> 00:55:43,680
Speaker 11: need anything from Congress at the moment. At the same time,

1044
00:55:43,719 --> 00:55:46,520
Speaker 11: we're seeing the administrations clearly trying to keep Congress up

1045
00:55:46,560 --> 00:55:50,560
Speaker 11: to date, briefing members of Congress earlier today on the situation,

1046
00:55:50,640 --> 00:55:53,360
Speaker 11: and I think laying down a marker that that situation

1047
00:55:53,480 --> 00:55:57,080
Speaker 11: might evolve and that they want to have the ability

1048
00:55:57,120 --> 00:56:00,839
Speaker 11: to seek additional resources if needed. So, yeah, a real

1049
00:56:00,920 --> 00:56:03,959
Speaker 11: question looming on the horizon the House discussion leader tonight

1050
00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:07,000
Speaker 11: among Republicans on selecting a speaker candidate, the possible vote

1051
00:56:07,040 --> 00:56:10,320
Speaker 11: tomorrow where that will land the House, and then obviously

1052
00:56:10,440 --> 00:56:12,880
Speaker 11: pushing an aid package through. I do think there tends

1053
00:56:12,880 --> 00:56:16,000
Speaker 11: to be broader bipartisan support for Israel, then say for Ukraine,

1054
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:18,680
Speaker 11: and then say for Ukraine exactly. And so the odds

1055
00:56:18,719 --> 00:56:20,839
Speaker 11: there if they can get us speaker so that they

1056
00:56:20,880 --> 00:56:24,080
Speaker 11: can actually start pushing business through the House, I think

1057
00:56:24,080 --> 00:56:26,640
Speaker 11: the odds there are pretty good. But the first question,

1058
00:56:26,760 --> 00:56:29,200
Speaker 11: the prerequisite is obviously they have to select a speaker.

1059
00:56:30,280 --> 00:56:32,680
Speaker 1: God knows when that's going to happen. As we spend

1060
00:56:32,680 --> 00:56:36,799
Speaker 1: some time with Bloomberg's Jenny Welch, having just heard from

1061
00:56:36,880 --> 00:56:39,439
Speaker 1: President Biden, if you're just joining us. We did hear

1062
00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 1: at last from the Commander in Chief on the situation

1063
00:56:42,280 --> 00:56:46,279
Speaker 1: in Israel, following a conversation that he had with Benjamin Netanyahu.

1064
00:56:46,400 --> 00:56:50,040
Speaker 8: Here he is at this moment, we must be crystal clear.

1065
00:56:50,760 --> 00:56:57,359
Speaker 8: We stand with Israel. We stand with Israel. We will

1066
00:56:57,360 --> 00:56:59,279
Speaker 8: make sure who has what it needs to take care

1067
00:56:59,320 --> 00:57:03,360
Speaker 8: of its citizens, defend itself respond to this attack.

1068
00:57:05,560 --> 00:57:08,040
Speaker 1: Jenny Welch, you mentioned the dib I, like that, the

1069
00:57:08,080 --> 00:57:10,200
Speaker 1: Defense Industrial Base. This is something we talked about with

1070
00:57:10,239 --> 00:57:16,080
Speaker 1: Mark Esper last hour about the challenges in manufacturing a

1071
00:57:16,120 --> 00:57:19,240
Speaker 1: lot of weapons at once. If we are going to

1072
00:57:19,280 --> 00:57:21,520
Speaker 1: stand with Israel as long as it takes, according to

1073
00:57:21,640 --> 00:57:24,560
Speaker 1: President Biden, much like we are with Ukraine.

1074
00:57:24,560 --> 00:57:25,800
Speaker 2: According to President.

1075
00:57:25,440 --> 00:57:28,600
Speaker 1: Biden, will there need to be an executive order, an

1076
00:57:28,640 --> 00:57:33,280
Speaker 1: Act of Congress, or something to start accelerating supply chains

1077
00:57:33,280 --> 00:57:34,800
Speaker 1: and manufacturing chains.

1078
00:57:34,520 --> 00:57:35,040
Speaker 2: To this end.

1079
00:57:36,160 --> 00:57:38,600
Speaker 11: There are a lot of options at the administration disposal.

1080
00:57:38,840 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 11: There's things like the Defense Production Act, where the administration

1081
00:57:42,520 --> 00:57:45,720
Speaker 11: can kind of push defense companies to surge production of

1082
00:57:45,760 --> 00:57:49,120
Speaker 11: certain things, or even surge production of widgets that go

1083
00:57:49,240 --> 00:57:51,840
Speaker 11: into those things. It really depends on kind of the

1084
00:57:51,840 --> 00:57:55,400
Speaker 11: package of materials that they're looking to increase production of.

1085
00:57:56,440 --> 00:57:59,640
Speaker 11: There's also obviously additional orders that can be put in

1086
00:57:59,680 --> 00:58:03,120
Speaker 11: that help incentivize production. The challenge here is really the

1087
00:58:03,240 --> 00:58:06,200
Speaker 11: lead times that are often involved in weapons production. So

1088
00:58:06,280 --> 00:58:08,920
Speaker 11: a lot of times defense companies won't start a production

1089
00:58:09,080 --> 00:58:12,640
Speaker 11: line until they actually have a contract or order on hand,

1090
00:58:13,080 --> 00:58:15,280
Speaker 11: then they'll invest the resources. So you kind of have

1091
00:58:15,320 --> 00:58:18,760
Speaker 11: to walk backwards from that point to determining where you're

1092
00:58:18,760 --> 00:58:20,480
Speaker 11: going to end up in the future. And that's been

1093
00:58:20,560 --> 00:58:22,800
Speaker 11: part of the challenge with Ukraine is there has been

1094
00:58:22,920 --> 00:58:26,720
Speaker 11: such a relatively quick surge in terms of need and

1095
00:58:26,800 --> 00:58:28,480
Speaker 11: it's hard for supply to catch up to that.

1096
00:58:29,520 --> 00:58:32,320
Speaker 10: Of course, as Ukraine has engaged in this conflict with Russia,

1097
00:58:32,400 --> 00:58:34,920
Speaker 10: just as Israel as now engaged in conflict with Hamas,

1098
00:58:34,920 --> 00:58:37,640
Speaker 10: and we have heard Russia coming up in these conversations

1099
00:58:37,640 --> 00:58:39,120
Speaker 10: as well. We were just speaking at the top of

1100
00:58:39,160 --> 00:58:42,160
Speaker 10: this hour with of retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, who

1101
00:58:42,200 --> 00:58:44,720
Speaker 10: was talking about Russia's influence on Iran. We heard Kevin

1102
00:58:44,760 --> 00:58:47,720
Speaker 10: McCarthy again at the Capitol yesterday talking about a new

1103
00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:51,880
Speaker 10: access of evil being Iran, Russia and China. Jenny, how

1104
00:58:51,960 --> 00:58:53,800
Speaker 10: much is this really about the Middle East and how

1105
00:58:53,880 --> 00:58:57,000
Speaker 10: much of it is about these wider geopolitical dynamics.

1106
00:58:57,160 --> 00:58:59,240
Speaker 11: I think you can't isolate the region from the wider

1107
00:58:59,280 --> 00:59:02,400
Speaker 11: geopolitical I think that's a really good point, and China

1108
00:59:02,520 --> 00:59:04,680
Speaker 11: is walking headfirst into this with some of their recent

1109
00:59:04,760 --> 00:59:07,320
Speaker 11: comments and response to what's been happening over the weekend.

1110
00:59:07,840 --> 00:59:11,080
Speaker 11: I think from China's perspective, they are clearly trying to

1111
00:59:11,080 --> 00:59:14,280
Speaker 11: stay as neutral as possible, while also recognizing that they

1112
00:59:14,320 --> 00:59:17,000
Speaker 11: have interests in the region and want to be more

1113
00:59:17,040 --> 00:59:21,080
Speaker 11: of a player in global geopolitics more broadly. I at

1114
00:59:21,080 --> 00:59:23,240
Speaker 11: the same time, don't expect that they will play nearly

1115
00:59:23,280 --> 00:59:25,200
Speaker 11: as much of a direct role as the United States

1116
00:59:25,240 --> 00:59:27,720
Speaker 11: will be. Clearly, the US has already engaged in the region,

1117
00:59:27,840 --> 00:59:30,920
Speaker 11: sending the carrier strikeforce right up there to support Israel,

1118
00:59:31,720 --> 00:59:34,920
Speaker 11: engaging with diplomatic partners all around the world to try

1119
00:59:34,960 --> 00:59:38,400
Speaker 11: and kind of rally around Israel. I think China is

1120
00:59:38,400 --> 00:59:40,960
Speaker 11: still kind of watching and waiting to see how things develop,

1121
00:59:41,080 --> 00:59:43,240
Speaker 11: but we'll want to at least have a voice in

1122
00:59:43,280 --> 00:59:43,960
Speaker 11: the discussion.

1123
00:59:44,440 --> 00:59:46,640
Speaker 1: So much for being a peacemaker. Huh. That was the

1124
00:59:46,640 --> 00:59:48,640
Speaker 1: conversation about China and Ukraine.

1125
00:59:48,680 --> 00:59:49,280
Speaker 2: Six months ago.

1126
00:59:49,800 --> 00:59:52,720
Speaker 1: We'll see how that goes this time. Jenny, I'm so

1127
00:59:52,760 --> 00:59:54,320
Speaker 1: glad you could come to talk to us many thanks

1128
00:59:54,320 --> 00:59:59,360
Speaker 1: for sharing your expertise. Bloomberg Economics Chief geo economics analyst.

1129
01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:02,120
Speaker 1: She doesn't know it yet, but she's going to be

1130
01:00:02,160 --> 01:00:05,360
Speaker 1: a regular on Bloomberg sound On. I think Kaylee would agree.

1131
01:00:05,360 --> 01:00:10,200
Speaker 1: I'm sure Matthew, along with Kaylee lions in Washington. Thanks

1132
01:00:10,240 --> 01:00:12,360
Speaker 1: for listening to the sound On podcast. Make sure to

1133
01:00:12,360 --> 01:00:15,560
Speaker 1: subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere

1134
01:00:15,560 --> 01:00:17,960
Speaker 1: else you get your podcasts, and you can find us

1135
01:00:18,000 --> 01:00:21,360
Speaker 1: live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm Eastern

1136
01:00:21,400 --> 01:00:25,120
Speaker 1: Time at Bloomberg dot com