WEBVTT - Yellen Warning on Debt Ceiling; PacWest Leads Regionals Higher

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<v Speaker 1>From the Bloomberg Interactive Burgers Studios. This is Bloomberg day

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<v Speaker 1>Break for Monday, May eighth.

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<v Speaker 2>Coming up today, Janet Yellen warns of a constitutional crisis

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<v Speaker 2>over the debt ceiling.

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<v Speaker 1>Joe Biden trails Donald Trump in a new presidential poll.

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<v Speaker 2>Pac West extends gains after Friday's.

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<v Speaker 1>Record search, and Wall Street awaits two key readings on inflation.

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<v Speaker 3>Protests continue over last week's depth of a homeless New

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<v Speaker 3>York subway writer. Glass of vigil was held in Allen,

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<v Speaker 3>Texas for those killed in the latest mass shooting. I'm

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<v Speaker 3>Michael Barr.

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<v Speaker 4>More ahead, I'm John staph Shown sports lost US with

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<v Speaker 4>the Mets and Yankees. The Devil's won Game three. The

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<v Speaker 4>Knicks have their game board tonight.

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<v Speaker 5>That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break, The business

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<v Speaker 5>news you need to starn your day in just one

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<v Speaker 5>fifteen minute podcast each morning on Apples, Spotify, the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 5>Business app, and everywhere you get your podcasts.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.

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<v Speaker 1>And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today.

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<v Speaker 2>Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says there are no good options

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<v Speaker 2>for solving the issue. Other than Congress lifting the cab.

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<v Speaker 2>Yellen says the White House invoking the fourteenth Amendment is

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<v Speaker 2>not a good option and could provoke a constitutional crisis.

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<v Speaker 6>All I want to say is that it's Congress's job

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<v Speaker 6>to do this. If they fail to do it, we

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<v Speaker 6>will have an economic and financial catastrophe that will be

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<v Speaker 6>of our own making. And there is no action that

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<v Speaker 6>President Biden in the US Treasury can take to prevent

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<v Speaker 6>that catastrophe.

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<v Speaker 2>Treasury Secretary Yellen made the comments on ABC's This Week.

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<v Speaker 2>You can catch the program every Sunday on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>Well Nathan. While the president tries to reach a debt

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<v Speaker 1>ceiling deal, he's also struggling on another front. The president's

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<v Speaker 1>approval rating has now reached a career low. Amy Morris

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<v Speaker 1>has details from our Bloomberg ninety nine one news room

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<v Speaker 1>in Washington.

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<v Speaker 7>The ABC News Washington Post poll finds Biden's approval rating

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<v Speaker 7>at thirty six percent, six points lower than in February.

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<v Speaker 7>Some fifty six percent disapproved of Biden's performance. Sixty eight

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<v Speaker 7>percent say President Biden, who is eighty, is too old

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<v Speaker 7>to serve a second term. Biden is lagging behind Donald

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<v Speaker 7>Trump and early voter preferences for the twenty twenty four election.

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<v Speaker 7>The poll shows voters rated Trump's physical health and mental

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<v Speaker 7>acuity higher than Biden's, and they believe he did a

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<v Speaker 7>better job with the economy than Biden has done so far.

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<v Speaker 7>In Washington, I'm Mamy Morris Bloomberg Daybreak.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks Amy Meantime, President Biden's unveiling plans today that could

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<v Speaker 2>affect travel around the country. He's looking to make things

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<v Speaker 2>easier for passengers who experience flight delays or cancelations. The

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<v Speaker 2>President will announce new rules that could require airlines to

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<v Speaker 2>provide meals, hotels, and additional compensation to travelers uncanceled or

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<v Speaker 2>severely delayed flights. The move comes ahead of an expected

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<v Speaker 2>spike in summer travel.

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<v Speaker 1>Well. Turning to the economy, now, Nathan, A few key

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<v Speaker 1>economic reports this week have an impact on FED policy.

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<v Speaker 1>We get data on consumer prices this Wednesday, followed by

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<v Speaker 1>a reading on producer prices on Thursday. We get more

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<v Speaker 1>from Bloomberg Economics correspondent Michael McKee.

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<v Speaker 8>We get two CPI reports, two jobs reports before the

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<v Speaker 8>next FED meeting, and one PCE so we will have

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<v Speaker 8>the opportunity to see a couple months worth of inflation data.

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<v Speaker 8>It may or may not have a bearing on what

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<v Speaker 8>they do the next month, but if it does come down,

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<v Speaker 8>that will feed into this narrative that maybe.

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<v Speaker 2>We're going to get out of this not without.

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<v Speaker 8>A recession necessarily, but without having a real slowed down

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<v Speaker 8>or forcing the Fed to raise rates so much more.

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<v Speaker 1>And Bloomberg's Michael McKee says economists expect Wednesday CPI report

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<v Speaker 1>to show prices increased four tenths of a percent in April,

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<v Speaker 1>and that would bring the annual inflation rate to five percent.

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<v Speaker 2>So there's economic data and the debt ceiling careen, but

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<v Speaker 2>let's not also forget about earnings. Wall Street gets more

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<v Speaker 2>of those to digest. This week. We get a preview

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<v Speaker 2>from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett.

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<v Speaker 9>There are ongoing concerns over turmoil in the financial sector,

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<v Speaker 9>of the debt ceiling, sticky inflation, and economic growth. Sarah

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<v Speaker 9>Mallick is chief investment officer at Neuven.

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<v Speaker 10>Revenue growth has been positive, but it basically significantly has

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<v Speaker 10>pricing power in it rather than volume growth. And if

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<v Speaker 10>in inflation is rolling over, so I think it's going

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<v Speaker 10>to be hard for companies to hold onto that pricing power.

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<v Speaker 10>That's another leg that will take earnings down and that

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<v Speaker 10>I think then at the S ANDP looks expensive.

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<v Speaker 9>Among some of the companies reporting this week, Apollo Global Management,

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<v Speaker 9>Devon Energy, Duke Energy, Occidental Petroleum, PayPal, and the Walt

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<v Speaker 9>Disney Company in New York, Charlie Palett Bloomberg Daybreak. All right, Charlie,

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<v Speaker 9>thanks well. Over the weekend, we got earnings from Berkshire.

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<v Speaker 9>Hathaway Warren.

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<v Speaker 1>Buffett's conglomerate reported in almost thirteen percent gain in operating

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<v Speaker 1>earnings to post results of more than eight billion dollars

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<v Speaker 1>in the first quarter. However, Buffett expects earnings at the

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<v Speaker 1>majority of Berkshire's operations to fall this year, he says

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<v Speaker 1>as a long predicted downturn will slow economic activity.

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<v Speaker 2>Seeing regional banks continue their bounce back this morning, Karen

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<v Speaker 2>Pack West, which surged eighty one percent on Friday, is

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<v Speaker 2>up another thirteen and a half percent this morning. The

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<v Speaker 2>bank slashed its quarterly dividend and said business remains sound.

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<v Speaker 2>Western Alliance is also gaining. It's up nearly five percent

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<v Speaker 2>after soaring forty nine percent on Friday.

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<v Speaker 1>Even so, Nathan, this year's banking turmoil is winging on

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<v Speaker 1>the sector. Overall regional bank shares and the S and

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<v Speaker 1>P five hundred are down forty percent on the year,

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<v Speaker 1>and the recent selloff threatens to push broader bank shares

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<v Speaker 1>below a technical threshold that could say no more pain ahead.

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<v Speaker 1>The S and P five hundred Financials indexes on the

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<v Speaker 1>verge of falling back below its two thousand and seven peak,

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<v Speaker 1>and we get more from Bloemberg Market's reporter Valerie Titel.

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<v Speaker 11>You think about what happened after thousand and two thousand

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<v Speaker 11>and eight, and that hit to the banking.

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<v Speaker 2>Sector took a decade to clawback.

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<v Speaker 11>And now we're teetering about to fall below those two

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<v Speaker 11>thousand and seven highs. And you have to think of

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<v Speaker 11>that with the backdrop that it looks like monetary policy

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<v Speaker 11>is going to say restrictive for longer. Given Friday to

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<v Speaker 11>Day's hot payroll report, it doesn't look like the labor

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<v Speaker 11>market in the US is starting to turn, and the

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<v Speaker 11>Fed is not going to pivot into cuts until they

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<v Speaker 11>start to see some real weakness there.

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<v Speaker 1>In Bloomberg's Valery Titels, as we'll get an update on

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<v Speaker 1>how banks are adapting to the turmoil on the fence

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<v Speaker 1>quarterly lending Standards survey, and that's due out later today.

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<v Speaker 2>Time out to take a look at some of the

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<v Speaker 2>other stories making news in New York and around the world.

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<v Speaker 2>For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Vahr.

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<v Speaker 3>Good morning, Michael, Good morning, Nathan. New York protesters are

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<v Speaker 3>demanding justice in the choke old death of thirty year

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<v Speaker 3>old Jordan Neely in the subway. The corner has ruled

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<v Speaker 3>the death of homicide. The Manhattan District Attorney's office is

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<v Speaker 3>investigating the case, which could go before a grand jury

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<v Speaker 3>this week. The twenty four year old man Daniel Penny,

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<v Speaker 3>who allegedly caused Neely's death, says he was defending himself

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<v Speaker 3>after Neely aggressively threatened him and others on board the train. Meanwhile,

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<v Speaker 3>some demonstrators supporting Neely jumped on the tracks, preventing the

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<v Speaker 3>f train from arriving.

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<v Speaker 12>It is devastating and it was absolutely preventable and the

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<v Speaker 12>city and the state have failed us again.

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<v Speaker 3>Police arrested thirteen people over the weekend. The city of Allen, Texas,

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<v Speaker 3>held a vigiled yesterday and for the eight people killed

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<v Speaker 3>and seven injured during a weekend mass shooting in a

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<v Speaker 3>shopping mall. Governor Abbott and Lieutenant Governor Patrick were among

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<v Speaker 3>the crowd at Cottonwood Creek Church, which hosted the vigil.

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<v Speaker 3>Alan Mayor ken Folk also spoke at the vigil.

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<v Speaker 12>We will not let the actions of one individual impact

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<v Speaker 12>our resolve. We will band together as a community and

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<v Speaker 12>will emerge even stronger. But in this time of sorrow,

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<v Speaker 12>please continue to pray for the victims and the families

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<v Speaker 12>of the victims.

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<v Speaker 3>The gunman was killed. President Biden ordered flags flown and

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<v Speaker 3>half staff, denouncing the violence as senseless. In Brownsville, Texas, yesterday,

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<v Speaker 3>an suv plowed into people gathered near a migrant shelter,

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<v Speaker 3>killing eight. The shelter's director said that the facility surveillance

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<v Speaker 3>video showed an suv running a light and crashing into

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<v Speaker 3>people's sitting at the bus stop. Victor Maldonado runs the

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<v Speaker 3>Ozamanam Center, a shelter serving people in need of emergency

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<v Speaker 3>housing assistant.

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<v Speaker 5>It's is tragic. I mean, we've never had a situation

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<v Speaker 5>like this happening, you know, here at the shelter or

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<v Speaker 5>in the city.

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<v Speaker 3>Maldonado says. Some of the victims were migrants. Closing arguments

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<v Speaker 3>began today in the New York civil assault and defamation

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<v Speaker 3>trial against former President Donald Trump. He decided not to

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<v Speaker 3>testify in his own defense. Author e Jen Carroll claims

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<v Speaker 3>Trump sexually assaulted her in a Bergdorf Goodman dressing room

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<v Speaker 3>in the nineteen nineties. Jury deliberations are expected tomorrow. Global

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<v Speaker 3>News twenty four hours a day, powered by more than

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<v Speaker 3>twenty seven hundred journalist nanailists in over one hundred and

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<v Speaker 3>twenty countries. I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg, Nathan.

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<v Speaker 3>Thank you, Michael.

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<v Speaker 2>Time now for our Bloomberg Sports Update. Good morning, John Stanshout.

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<v Speaker 4>Good morning, Avan mess and Yankees combined to win two

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<v Speaker 4>two one hundred regular season games last season. Things not

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<v Speaker 4>going so well this year, and both they're looking at

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<v Speaker 4>already large deficits in their divisions. Mets look City Field

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<v Speaker 4>lost to Colorado thirteen to six. Rockies hit two home

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<v Speaker 4>runs of the seven run fifteen. The Mets have now

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<v Speaker 4>lost five to the last six, eleven of the last fourteen,

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<v Speaker 4>and Atlanta keeps winning.

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<v Speaker 2>The Braziers seven games ahead.

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<v Speaker 3>Looked as if the Yankees were.

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<v Speaker 4>Gonna win the series at Tampa Bay got six to

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<v Speaker 4>nothing with Garrett Cole on the mount. In seven starts,

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<v Speaker 4>Cole had not allowed more than two runs.

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<v Speaker 9>He allowed six.

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<v Speaker 2>Raise took the lead.

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<v Speaker 4>Yanks tied at the Raise one eight to seven.

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<v Speaker 3>In ten.

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<v Speaker 4>It is there now twenty eight and seven. They are

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<v Speaker 4>ten games ahead of the Yankees, who are expecting to

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<v Speaker 4>get Aaron Judge back tomorrow via Blue who passed away

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<v Speaker 4>at seventy three. As a twenty one year old. Pitching

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<v Speaker 4>for Oakland, Golo won the Cy Young and MDP Awards.

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<v Speaker 4>Familiar script for the Devils, who lost games one and

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<v Speaker 4>two to the Rangers by combining ten to two, but

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<v Speaker 4>then won the series. They lost the first two to

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<v Speaker 4>Carolina by a combined eleven to two, but they won

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<v Speaker 4>Game three in Newark eight to four. Jack Hughes two

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<v Speaker 4>goals to assist brother Luke added two assist seattlebey Dallas

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<v Speaker 4>seven to two, surprising Florida one again three two and

0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:09.520
<v Speaker 4>overtime over Toronto. Sixers beat the Celtics in overtime. That

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<v Speaker 4>series tied to two. So are the Nuggets and Sons

0:10:12.480 --> 0:10:15.680
<v Speaker 4>Phoenix one game for an incident in that game when

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<v Speaker 4>Denver Starr Nikoliochers took the ball from a fan made

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<v Speaker 4>contact with him, and that fan was Matt as Bia,

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<v Speaker 4>who owns the Sons. Jocus contended it was Ishbia who

0:10:24.360 --> 0:10:27.040
<v Speaker 4>first made contact with him. Next to their two losses

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<v Speaker 4>to the heat of shot, only fifteen of seventy four

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<v Speaker 4>on three point ers. Game four is tonight in Miami.

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<v Speaker 4>John stash Hellen.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Sports.

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<v Speaker 5>Live from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,

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<v Speaker 5>Boston to Washington, d C. Nationwide on SiriusXM, the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 5>Business app in Bloomberg dot com. This is Bloomberg Day Break.

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<v Speaker 5>Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.

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<v Speaker 2>We are kicking off a new trading week that could

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<v Speaker 2>be dominated by concerns over the debt impasse in Washington,

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<v Speaker 2>the health of regional banks as well. That says the

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<v Speaker 2>Federal Reserve appears on course to keep interest rates elevated

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<v Speaker 2>after another strong monthly jobs report. Well, this week's inflation

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<v Speaker 2>data changed the calculus for this central bank. Let's bring

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<v Speaker 2>in Dennis Gartman to get this trading week started, chairman

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<v Speaker 2>of the University of Akron Endowment Investment Committee, and of course,

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<v Speaker 2>the former publisher of the Gartman Letter, Dennis, good morning.

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<v Speaker 2>What's the biggest market risk for you right now?

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<v Speaker 13>I think the biggest risk is the fact that people,

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<v Speaker 13>including yourself, called the employment number on Friday a strong number.

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<v Speaker 13>Let's be honest, it really wasn't that strong.

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<v Speaker 1>There.

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<v Speaker 13>Revisions were one hundred and forty thousand down for the

0:11:34.640 --> 0:11:38.000
<v Speaker 13>previous month, and actually almost all in fact, all of

0:11:38.040 --> 0:11:41.640
<v Speaker 13>the increase was predicated upon the birth death adjustment number,

0:11:41.679 --> 0:11:44.200
<v Speaker 13>which was plus three hundred and eighty thousand. It's the

0:11:44.280 --> 0:11:47.040
<v Speaker 13>largest number of the year. We'll probably start to see

0:11:47.040 --> 0:11:49.679
<v Speaker 13>some lesser numbers on the birth death adjustment. So I

0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:52.320
<v Speaker 13>think that the non farm payrolls number was actually almost

0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:56.720
<v Speaker 13>clearly almost negative if you take out the birth the

0:11:56.760 --> 0:12:00.840
<v Speaker 13>birth death adjustment phenomenon. So let's be honest, it was

0:12:00.880 --> 0:12:03.360
<v Speaker 13>not that strong a number. And I was quite surprised

0:12:03.360 --> 0:12:06.360
<v Speaker 13>by the response by the stock market, with the Dow

0:12:06.440 --> 0:12:09.480
<v Speaker 13>gaining what five hundred points during the course of the day.

0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:15.000
<v Speaker 13>That caught me rather off guard. I'm I'm somewhat bearish

0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:17.600
<v Speaker 13>of stocks, marginally, so in my own account, I'm short

0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:21.120
<v Speaker 13>about seven percent. I've got a large cash position, a

0:12:21.200 --> 0:12:23.800
<v Speaker 13>large position in a two year note, and a somewhat

0:12:23.880 --> 0:12:26.800
<v Speaker 13>larger position in gold. So I'm short a little bit

0:12:26.840 --> 0:12:29.240
<v Speaker 13>of stocks, long a little bit of gold that basically

0:12:29.280 --> 0:12:35.520
<v Speaker 13>predicated upon the uncertainty regarding the economy. My biggest position

0:12:35.559 --> 0:12:37.280
<v Speaker 13>is in the two year note, and I'm comfortable sitting

0:12:37.320 --> 0:12:39.679
<v Speaker 13>right there essentially on the sidelines.

0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:42.040
<v Speaker 2>All Right, So you have been pretty bearish on this

0:12:42.160 --> 0:12:47.120
<v Speaker 2>market for quite some time. Are you raising your forecast

0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:50.600
<v Speaker 2>for a recession coming out of the data that we've seen.

0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:55.240
<v Speaker 13>I think that when the data is actually revised, I

0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:58.439
<v Speaker 13>think given the fact that we've revised downward the non

0:12:58.480 --> 0:13:01.000
<v Speaker 13>farm payrolls number by one hundred and forty, which is

0:13:01.000 --> 0:13:03.760
<v Speaker 13>a big number, I think we may well be already

0:13:03.800 --> 0:13:06.440
<v Speaker 13>in recession. It depends on which industry you're in. If

0:13:06.440 --> 0:13:09.080
<v Speaker 13>you're in the if you're in the commercial real estate,

0:13:09.120 --> 0:13:12.280
<v Speaker 13>there's no question you're in recession. If you're in retail business,

0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:15.480
<v Speaker 13>you're probably worried about being the in recession, and if

0:13:15.480 --> 0:13:18.079
<v Speaker 13>you're in some if you're in travel, you're you're wondering,

0:13:18.280 --> 0:13:20.280
<v Speaker 13>how can it be any better than what we've got?

0:13:20.280 --> 0:13:22.640
<v Speaker 13>So it depends upon which industry you're in. But I

0:13:22.640 --> 0:13:26.600
<v Speaker 13>think on balance, when we when the NBER sits down

0:13:26.640 --> 0:13:29.600
<v Speaker 13>in several months and looks back and says the recession

0:13:29.640 --> 0:13:32.040
<v Speaker 13>began probably in the first quarter of this year. Tom

0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:33.960
<v Speaker 13>will tell right now.

0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:36.240
<v Speaker 2>You've also said that you believe that the Fed is

0:13:36.280 --> 0:13:38.760
<v Speaker 2>going to keep interest rates higher for quite a bit

0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:41.400
<v Speaker 2>longer than the market is expecting. If we are starting

0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:45.960
<v Speaker 2>to get the data showing the possibility of a recession

0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:49.840
<v Speaker 2>sooner than expected, could that cause the Fed to bring

0:13:49.960 --> 0:13:51.640
<v Speaker 2>rates down sooner than expected?

0:13:52.760 --> 0:13:55.160
<v Speaker 13>The Fed will be slow in responding. To be quite honest,

0:13:55.200 --> 0:13:58.640
<v Speaker 13>the Fed is always slow. They're always laid to the adjustment,

0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:02.040
<v Speaker 13>either to tighten or to ease. I've maintained that the

0:14:02.040 --> 0:14:04.559
<v Speaker 13>Fed will be holding interest rates higher for a longer

0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:07.280
<v Speaker 13>period of time, listening to what mister Powell has said

0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:13.480
<v Speaker 13>and basically reverberating or or reiterating what he is always

0:14:13.640 --> 0:14:16.000
<v Speaker 13>what he has commented upon. I think the odds of

0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:19.760
<v Speaker 13>the SAD pivoting and reducing interest rates by the end

0:14:19.800 --> 0:14:23.920
<v Speaker 13>of the year are negligible, borderline zero. I think it'll

0:14:23.920 --> 0:14:26.320
<v Speaker 13>be early in twenty twenty four before the Fed considers

0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:29.080
<v Speaker 13>the possibility of lowering the overnight FED funds. Right, so

0:14:29.120 --> 0:14:30.440
<v Speaker 13>it's a long ways into the future.

0:14:30.760 --> 0:14:33.040
<v Speaker 2>And I also heard you say that you're comfortable staying

0:14:33.040 --> 0:14:37.360
<v Speaker 2>in two year treasuries. Where do you see treasury yields

0:14:37.400 --> 0:14:38.560
<v Speaker 2>going in this environment?

0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:42.480
<v Speaker 13>Probably not much direction either way. We haven't gone far

0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:44.680
<v Speaker 13>either way in the course of the past several months,

0:14:44.680 --> 0:14:46.880
<v Speaker 13>and I think we're going to sit essentially where we

0:14:46.920 --> 0:14:50.200
<v Speaker 13>are right now. So holding short term interest rates or

0:14:50.200 --> 0:14:53.400
<v Speaker 13>holding short term positions, either in short term te bills

0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:55.360
<v Speaker 13>or two year notes is probably the place to be

0:14:55.440 --> 0:14:58.320
<v Speaker 13>for the next twelve to eighteen months. I don't think

0:14:58.320 --> 0:15:00.680
<v Speaker 13>there'll be much movement and in the state direction higher

0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:01.560
<v Speaker 13>or lower from here.

0:15:01.920 --> 0:15:04.400
<v Speaker 2>In our last minute here, Dennis, we've seen a rally

0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:06.960
<v Speaker 2>at least in the last couple of days in regional

0:15:07.040 --> 0:15:10.000
<v Speaker 2>bank stocks. What's your outlook for the regionals and the

0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:12.160
<v Speaker 2>impact that they could have on the brighter stock market.

0:15:12.800 --> 0:15:15.520
<v Speaker 13>I think we've probably had too much bearishness in the

0:15:15.880 --> 0:15:19.360
<v Speaker 13>regional bank stocks. If there's one area in the economy

0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:21.680
<v Speaker 13>where you want to be a buyer, buying the regionals,

0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:23.760
<v Speaker 13>especially in the southeast here in the United States. So

0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:25.720
<v Speaker 13>I think that's a very good place to go hide

0:15:25.760 --> 0:15:28.560
<v Speaker 13>for a while. If you must hold equities, holding them

0:15:28.600 --> 0:15:31.600
<v Speaker 13>in regional bank stocks that have I think been decimated

0:15:31.640 --> 0:15:34.440
<v Speaker 13>and unduly so over the course the past month and

0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:36.480
<v Speaker 13>a half or so. So that's one of the few

0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:38.960
<v Speaker 13>areas that I can actually put together a bullish pheno,

0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:40.280
<v Speaker 13>a bullish posture.

0:15:42.240 --> 0:15:45.320
<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the

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