1 00:00:04,640 --> 00:00:07,960 Speaker 1: On this episode of Newtsworld. My guest today wrote an 2 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: article on Tuesday, March twenty second for The Washington Times 3 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:14,920 Speaker 1: entitled the Death of mad and the urgent need to 4 00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:20,120 Speaker 1: re establish deterrance. As we've watched Putin's invasion of Ukraine unfold, 5 00:00:20,560 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 1: the topic of defense as well as deterence has been 6 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 1: on my mind, so I'm really looking forward to this conversation. 7 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 1: Since the nineteen fifties, we've relied on to terence to 8 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:34,960 Speaker 1: stop anyone from using nuclear weapons because the reaction would 9 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 1: be so terrible, and for seventy years it worked. Now 10 00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:41,479 Speaker 1: we're moving into a world where we need to consider 11 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:44,560 Speaker 1: what defending is going to mean for nuclear or cyber attack, 12 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:49,040 Speaker 1: as well as rebuilding an effective deterrence. And I'm really 13 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:53,320 Speaker 1: pleased to welcome my guest Cliffmay, founder and President of 14 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 1: the Foundation for Defensive Democracies and the author of the 15 00:00:56,560 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 1: Washington Times article. The Foundation for Defensive Democracies is a Washington, 16 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:07,960 Speaker 1: DC based nonpartisan, nonprofit research institute focusing on national security 17 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:10,680 Speaker 1: and foreign policy, and I have to say it brings 18 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 1: together some of the smartest people thinking about national defense 19 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 1: in the entire country, and Cliff May is their leader 20 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 1: and has done an amazing job. Cliff, thank you for 21 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:34,960 Speaker 1: joining me. In your Washington Times article the Death of Mad. 22 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:38,760 Speaker 1: You argue there is an urgent need to re establish 23 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:43,680 Speaker 1: the terrence. First, would you explain for our listeners exactly 24 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 1: what MAD means mutually assured destruction? How did that develop 25 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 1: and what does it mean? So? MAD or mutually as short, 26 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 1: destruction was a principle during the Cold War, and it 27 00:01:55,800 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 1: was determined vulnerability. Actually, the idea was if both the 28 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 1: US and the Soviet Union were unable to protect themselves 29 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:10,240 Speaker 1: from attack, that would be stabilizing rather than the reverse. 30 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 1: Why because there would be no incentive for either side 31 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 1: to go first, because the other side could respond and 32 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:21,040 Speaker 1: the nuclear exchange would be devastating to both sides. So 33 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:24,639 Speaker 1: it depended on the rationality of both sides in order 34 00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:26,919 Speaker 1: to succeed. And I remember studying it in graduate school. 35 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 1: I went to the Russian Institute, I went to the 36 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 1: School of International Affairs at Columbia, and I thought, well, 37 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: this does make sense, and it kind of did. I 38 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 1: had been an exchange student in the Soviet Union and 39 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 1: I had come to the conclusion eventually that the rulers 40 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 1: of the Soviet Union were evil but rational, and they 41 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:47,839 Speaker 1: also had fresh in their minds the memories of the 42 00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:51,920 Speaker 1: horrors the Soviet Union suffered in World War Two. So 43 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:55,519 Speaker 1: it seemed to be a reasonable idea that we would say, okay, 44 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:58,399 Speaker 1: a nuclear exchange. That will be a lose lose proposition, 45 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:01,680 Speaker 1: and so no one will go ahead with it. But 46 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 1: I would argue that the world situation has changed and 47 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:08,639 Speaker 1: we haven't adapted to it since then. You know. One 48 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 1: of the things you note in your article president Reagan's 49 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 1: plan for high tech missile defense, and part of that, 50 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:18,640 Speaker 1: I think was that Reagan had come to the conclusion 51 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 1: that a nuclear war would really be horrifying, and that 52 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 1: he would like to abolish nuclear weapons, but in the 53 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:28,680 Speaker 1: interim he wanted to make it extraordinarily difficult to use them. 54 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,800 Speaker 1: Could you outline for our listeners what the Reagan plan 55 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 1: was for a high tech missile defense. Yeah. Reagan was 56 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 1: the first, I think to say, you know, I'm not 57 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 1: entirely comfortable with this idea of mutually assured destruction as 58 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 1: our principle. I want to think beyond it. I want 59 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 1: to think about the possibility of missile defense, of an umbrella, 60 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 1: of a way to prevent our adversaries from attacking us, 61 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 1: rather than just saying they won't because afterwards we'd strike 62 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 1: back and they won't want that. And that idea was 63 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 1: derided as star wars for one Again, those who believed 64 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 1: in arms control and mad thought it's a bad idea 65 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 1: because if we ever get invulnerable, then it's destabilizing. They 66 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:12,120 Speaker 1: also thought it's impossible to do. You can't hit a 67 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 1: bullet with a bullet. But of course there was research 68 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:17,560 Speaker 1: on missile defense, quite a bit of good research on 69 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 1: missile defense. Some of it was actually implemented. We've worked 70 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 1: somewhat with the Israelis on missile defense. The one result 71 00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 1: is Iron Dome, which has kept Israel from having to 72 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 1: respond much more forcefully for continuing attacks from Hamas and Gaza, 73 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 1: for example in Hesbollah in Lebanon most recently just last year. 74 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:41,679 Speaker 1: But we haven't really gone nearly as far as we could. 75 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 1: We haven't implemented the technology we have or produced more. 76 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:49,800 Speaker 1: Back during the Obama administration, then Secretary of State Hillary 77 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 1: Clinton talked about a defense umbrella. That's a little bit 78 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 1: of an ambiguous phrase. Doesn't necessarily mean a missile umbrella, 79 00:04:56,360 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 1: but a defense umbrella, and she said America had this 80 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:02,160 Speaker 1: and would then its allies in Asia, the Middle East, 81 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:04,840 Speaker 1: and Europe. The problem was, and I wrote an op 82 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:07,039 Speaker 1: ed along with the Alan Berman in the Wall Street 83 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:10,680 Speaker 1: Journal on this that while we should have a defense umbrella, 84 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 1: one that is not small and doesn't have holes, we don't. 85 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:19,560 Speaker 1: And at that time Obama was cutting funding for missile defense, 86 00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:22,240 Speaker 1: cutting it entirely. During the campaign. He said I'm going 87 00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:25,719 Speaker 1: to cut ten billion from missile defense research at a 88 00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:29,120 Speaker 1: time when we were devoting nine billion to missile defense research. 89 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:32,520 Speaker 1: So my argument is that among the things we need 90 00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 1: to do is to really get back and think about 91 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:39,520 Speaker 1: missile defense because we don't have necessarily rational allies we 92 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:42,640 Speaker 1: can depend on. One can imagine North Korea's Kim Jong 93 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 1: un saying, you know what, if I could take out Washington, 94 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:47,279 Speaker 1: that would be worth one of my cities, would it not? 95 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:50,839 Speaker 1: One could imagine Kameney, who was a supreme leader of 96 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:54,760 Speaker 1: Iran certainly saying one nuclear missile will destroy Israel forever. 97 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:58,600 Speaker 1: If I lose a city for that, isn't that worthwhile? Trade? 98 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:02,280 Speaker 1: Then you have putin, of course, and putin he is 99 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:05,720 Speaker 1: not the same as the materialists of the Soviet era. 100 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 1: He takes all this very personally. We're not going to 101 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:11,320 Speaker 1: be able to establish mission defensive way we want tomorrow, 102 00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:14,039 Speaker 1: but we should be working on this. And the other 103 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:16,040 Speaker 1: thing I think we need to work on is much 104 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:20,040 Speaker 1: more robust deterrence. Note that Putin thought about going into 105 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:23,239 Speaker 1: Ukraine and was not deterred by NATO, was not deterred 106 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:25,360 Speaker 1: by the US. He thought, no, no, I can do this. 107 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 1: We should have a military that our adversaries recognize as 108 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:34,039 Speaker 1: so overwhelming that they can never engage us in a 109 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:38,600 Speaker 1: fair fight. Let's stick with that for a second. When Putin, 110 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:44,000 Speaker 1: about two or three weeks before he invaded Ukraine, went 111 00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:50,000 Speaker 1: to a series of tests that were designed to test 112 00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:54,960 Speaker 1: I think seven different nuclear weapons systems, and I thought 113 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:56,599 Speaker 1: at the time that that was sort of an early 114 00:06:56,680 --> 00:07:01,599 Speaker 1: warning signal that he does have nuclear weapons and he 115 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:04,480 Speaker 1: might use them. And then later, of course, he actually 116 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:07,479 Speaker 1: talked about the fact that there were circumstances where he 117 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 1: would use them. Do you take that seriously? Yes, Actually, 118 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 1: I think we have to take it seriously. It was 119 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 1: a threat. There was an element of what's called strategic 120 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 1: ambiguity in that, and strategic ambiguity deters he had it, 121 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:24,240 Speaker 1: we didn't. Therefore, he was deterring us more than we 122 00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 1: were deterring him. We have allowed him to develop many 123 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:32,640 Speaker 1: more tactical nukes, which means much smaller nukes, nukes that 124 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:34,760 Speaker 1: could be used on the battlefield, not here or Shima 125 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 1: size or beyond. I think he has something like two thousand. 126 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 1: I think we have something like two hundred. He put 127 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:43,559 Speaker 1: his nuclear forces, you'll recall on alert, which was also 128 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 1: abbey to scare us and what he was saying, and 129 00:07:45,840 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 1: we couldn't rule this out. We probably still can't, even 130 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 1: though things look a little better right now that he 131 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 1: might say, use a tactical nuclear weapon to demolish a 132 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 1: Ukrainian city, carrying the threat that I can do this 133 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 1: as well in the Hawkins, I can do this as 134 00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 1: well in Poland or Moldova. I'll do this anywhere I 135 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 1: want to. What will you do in response? I am 136 00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 1: going to re establish the Russian Empire because that is 137 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 1: my job. I am meant to be a conquering czar 138 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 1: along the lines of Peter the Great, and you can't 139 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 1: do anything about it. I'm going to be able to 140 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 1: deter you. You're not going to trade an American city 141 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 1: for a Ukrainian city, and that's probably correct, but it 142 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 1: also shows real weaknesses in terms of our strategic planning well. 143 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 1: And it both means because we made a conscious decision 144 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:41,200 Speaker 1: not to have a robust tactical nuclear capability, and we 145 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 1: actually got rid of most of our tactical nuclear weapons, 146 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:47,439 Speaker 1: I think partly because we wanted to create this gap. 147 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 1: We have very sophisticated conventional weapons that can do basically 148 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:56,000 Speaker 1: anything a tactical nuke can do, and we wanted to 149 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 1: make clear that to go nuclear was to cross a 150 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:02,920 Speaker 1: threshold that was horrifying. And I think at one level 151 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 1: Putin actually follows a more traditional Russian view, which is 152 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 1: they're just big artillery shells. I mean, you know, you 153 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 1: can take out Mariopo with one hit rather than have 154 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 1: to spend three weeks bonding it. I mean, they have 155 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: supposedly knocked down ninety two percent of the buildings in 156 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 1: Mariopal So conventional war can be pretty horrifying in its 157 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 1: own right. But it struck me at the time that 158 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:29,840 Speaker 1: as dangerous as he is, and I think you have 159 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:33,280 Speaker 1: to sort of see him as a genuine Russian bear 160 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 1: that you don't particularly want to get in the cage with. 161 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:40,959 Speaker 1: When people like Iran with its religious motivation, or Kim 162 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:44,600 Speaker 1: Jong un, whose motivation is beyond our comprehension, when they 163 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:49,200 Speaker 1: have ICBMs and nuclear weapons, you really have to think 164 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:52,440 Speaker 1: both about how are we going to deter them and 165 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:55,400 Speaker 1: what is it we would do to defend ourselves if 166 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 1: the deterrence broke down. And I think there's been almost 167 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:03,800 Speaker 1: no thinking about what would happen if deterrence collapsed with 168 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 1: one of these secondary countries. I think that's right, and 169 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:09,719 Speaker 1: I just inject two more points. Putin also used a 170 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:14,200 Speaker 1: hypersonic missile. It launched from an aeroplane. We don't have 171 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:17,320 Speaker 1: hypersonics yet, we've been slow in developing them, and we 172 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 1: don't have defense against hypersonics yet. This should be a 173 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 1: wake up call to us as well. And you know, 174 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:28,559 Speaker 1: although Putin used as an excuse that here his invasion 175 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:32,560 Speaker 1: and attempt to conquer Ukraine, that he was threatened by NATO, 176 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 1: the fact of the matter is NATO has been a 177 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 1: weakening and declining force for many years. More countries come in, 178 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:41,200 Speaker 1: but spending went up a little bit during the Trump years, 179 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 1: but not enough, and it may change now. Germany was 180 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:48,079 Speaker 1: not contributing to the collective security in any appreciable way, 181 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 1: and it's the richest nation in Europe. I've had arguments 182 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:54,320 Speaker 1: with German diplomats about this over the years. I think 183 00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:59,200 Speaker 1: the new Chancellor, all of Schultz, gets that Germany needs 184 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:03,079 Speaker 1: to contribute. Why that's important. The West, particularly Europe, has 185 00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:08,880 Speaker 1: become increasingly dependent on energy supplies from Russia. That dependence 186 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:13,199 Speaker 1: is also one of the factors that Putin considered before 187 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:15,960 Speaker 1: going into Ukraine. He thought, I can cut these guys off. 188 00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:18,920 Speaker 1: I don't care they do. In all these ways, we 189 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 1: haven't had what I would consider to be a coherent 190 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:28,840 Speaker 1: strategy visa Putin or really our other adversaries and potential 191 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:30,920 Speaker 1: enemies out there. And by the way, we should talk 192 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:35,720 Speaker 1: about this right now. Biden's diplomats are in Vienna, where 193 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 1: they're negotiating with an Iranian delegation, but not directly. What 194 00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 1: I mean by that is that the Iranian delegation will 195 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:46,040 Speaker 1: not deign to sit down with Infidel Satanic Americans. So 196 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:50,440 Speaker 1: despite what's going on in Ukraine, the Russian envoy in 197 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:53,840 Speaker 1: Vienna is playing the role of and I say this 198 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 1: in quotes, honest broker. We have to go through him 199 00:11:56,960 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 1: to talk to the Iranians, and the Russian are saying, well, great, 200 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 1: we want some benefits from this deal as well. For example, 201 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: we want to carve out to the sanctions being opposed 202 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 1: due to Ukraine, so we can continue to sell arms 203 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 1: to the Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear weapons plans for 204 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:16,440 Speaker 1: peaceful purposes only, of course, we want to carve out 205 00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 1: and unless we get it, we won't. And what's more, 206 00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:21,520 Speaker 1: and you know this very well, the deal that appears 207 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:25,880 Speaker 1: to being negotiated now would be weaker even than Obama's deal, 208 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:28,960 Speaker 1: and it would give the Iranian regime a path to 209 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons, maybe a little more slowly than they would 210 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 1: have otherwise, not clear, but it would give them that path. 211 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:39,680 Speaker 1: And then we have a regime that doesn't have relations 212 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:42,320 Speaker 1: with us, that won't talk to us, that precites the 213 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:46,000 Speaker 1: chant death to America and death to Israel every Friday night, 214 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:50,080 Speaker 1: tens of thousands of people possessing nuclear weapons. We have 215 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:52,760 Speaker 1: to think very hard about that situation if that's what 216 00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:55,559 Speaker 1: the Biden administration is going to saddle us with. Although 217 00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 1: I hope they won't, but I'm not confident that they won't. 218 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 1: When I was in high school, my dad was serving 219 00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:26,160 Speaker 1: at Fort Riley, Kansas. I remember reading a novel called Tomorrow, 220 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:31,960 Speaker 1: and it was a description of a nuclear attack on 221 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 1: Kansas City in a very detailed sense of this is 222 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 1: how it would happen, this is what the effect would be, 223 00:13:40,480 --> 00:13:43,080 Speaker 1: and I was horrify. It's probably one of the reasons 224 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:46,319 Speaker 1: I ultimately got involved in public life is I was horrified. 225 00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:50,280 Speaker 1: I don't think people realize that the threshold number of 226 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 1: being terrified is one. We have thousands, the Russians have thousands, 227 00:13:55,320 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 1: but North Korea and they apparently now have between forty 228 00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 1: and fifty. North Korea would one deliverable is terrifying. The 229 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:06,720 Speaker 1: idea of Iran. I mean, if I were Israeli, I 230 00:14:06,760 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 1: would probably go to preemptive war to block them from 231 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:13,640 Speaker 1: ever getting a nuclear weapon, because one nuclear weapon in 232 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:17,720 Speaker 1: Iran would be the equivalent of the Holocaust if delivered 233 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 1: on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. That's right, they've said Israel 234 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 1: is a one nuclear weapon country. We could wipe it out, 235 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 1: and they might very well say that's worth it if 236 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:30,200 Speaker 1: all that happens. In responses Israel takes out one of 237 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:33,840 Speaker 1: our cities, because don't forget the revolution in nineteen seventy nine, 238 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 1: Iran was not an Iranian revolution. It was very specifically 239 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 1: said to be an Islamic revolution. And if the Jewish 240 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 1: state is the enemy of Muslims, now plenty of Arabs 241 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 1: and Muslims no longer feel that way about it. We 242 00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 1: just a meeting of Arabs and Israelis in the Negev. 243 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 1: It's really quite a remarkable thing. But the rulers in 244 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:54,880 Speaker 1: Tehran do think that, and so they might think it's 245 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 1: small sacrifice to make everybody who dies will be a martyr, 246 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 1: So therefore that's a good thing. Also worth keeping in 247 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 1: mind is that in terms of North Korea, going back 248 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 1: to you'll require this nineteen ninety four. At that point, 249 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 1: President Clinton had negotiations with North Korea that he said, Okay, 250 00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 1: we've solved this problem diplomatically. We're going to give them 251 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:17,360 Speaker 1: various benefits, but they promised not to develop nuclear weapons. 252 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 1: Wendy Sherman, who is now Deputy Secretary of State, she 253 00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 1: was one of the negotiators. Of course that negotiation and 254 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 1: that deal failed. Who was meant to prevent North Korea 255 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:30,680 Speaker 1: the Kim dynasty from getting nuclear weapons. They have them, 256 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 1: and as you point, out they have increasingly sophisticated missiles 257 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 1: with which deliver them, and we do not have what 258 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:42,400 Speaker 1: we need. We have some missile defense, but insufficient. Yeah, 259 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:48,440 Speaker 1: if you're weighing the survival of Seattle or Cincinnati or Washington, 260 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:53,440 Speaker 1: you wouldn't particularly want to gamble, particularly because we bought 261 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 1: into this. I think idiotic notion that you're going to 262 00:15:56,640 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 1: have a land based system which has a limited cover reach. 263 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 1: For example, the North Koreans and the Chinese and the 264 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 1: Russians all have proven orbital weapons. Once you launched a satellite, 265 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 1: if the satellite has a nuclear weapon in it, it 266 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 1: is in fact an orbiting weapon. The current missile defense 267 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:18,440 Speaker 1: would have virtually no effect if, in fact they had 268 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:21,760 Speaker 1: an orbital device which would not go into action until 269 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:24,960 Speaker 1: it was over the North American continent. It's a little 270 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 1: bit like inventing an anti aircraft system which only operates 271 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 1: if you promised to come in from one particular direction 272 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:34,240 Speaker 1: at one time of the day. Yeah. One of the 273 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:41,040 Speaker 1: objections to Reagan's Star Wars plan was militarizing space. And 274 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 1: that's a bad idea. It on a militarized space, and 275 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 1: Elan Berman I made the case, said, well, no space 276 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:49,680 Speaker 1: will be militarized. When a missile is fired through space 277 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:52,760 Speaker 1: aiming at a target at say in the US, what 278 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 1: we want to do is stop that missile from reaching 279 00:16:55,960 --> 00:17:00,640 Speaker 1: its intended dictums. That's not militarizing space. That's demilitary rising space. 280 00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:03,240 Speaker 1: But a good missile defense system would be what they 281 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 1: called layered or comprehensive. And part of what that means 282 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 1: is you could detect a missile on launch and perhaps 283 00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:10,640 Speaker 1: hit it right there in the pad. You could get 284 00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:13,200 Speaker 1: it in flight, You could get it on various points 285 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:15,840 Speaker 1: in its trajectory of even though it only takes seconds, 286 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:17,639 Speaker 1: you have various ways to do it. Now that part 287 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 1: of the problem with the hypersonics is it raises the 288 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 1: possibility of missiles where you can't mathematically predict the trajectory 289 00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:28,159 Speaker 1: because it can change. That is more challenging. There are 290 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 1: people working on this, there are people thinking about this, 291 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:33,119 Speaker 1: or people know a lot more than I do about this, obviously, 292 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:37,959 Speaker 1: but the research and development of ways to protect Americans 293 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:42,199 Speaker 1: and our American allies and American forces abroad, that is 294 00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:45,320 Speaker 1: not going on in a robust manner right now, and 295 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 1: it really should be. If we recognize what's going on 296 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:51,679 Speaker 1: in the world. Matt Pottinger, I surely know who he 297 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:55,720 Speaker 1: shares our China program. He was on the National Security Council. 298 00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:58,600 Speaker 1: The way he phrases it, look a second Cold War 299 00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 1: has been declared against us. Now, if that is true, 300 00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:06,160 Speaker 1: and our adversaries are mobilizing and even fighting, then we 301 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 1: have to mobilize in fight or the outcome is unlikely 302 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 1: to be pleasant. Easy to imagine a coalition of Iran, China, 303 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 1: and Russia, all of whom are unified by their opposition 304 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:21,320 Speaker 1: to US and to democracy. Yes, and I think that 305 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:25,720 Speaker 1: coalition has already formed. Member. On February fourth, Chijing Ping 306 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:29,479 Speaker 1: and Vladimir Putin issued a five thousand words statement in 307 00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:34,920 Speaker 1: which they said their relationship has quote no limits. And meanwhile, 308 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:38,000 Speaker 1: the Islamic propect Iran is a junior partner in this relationship, 309 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:42,359 Speaker 1: but it's a partner. In recent days, they've been mobilizing Hezbollah, 310 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:46,680 Speaker 1: their military political proxy, which has brought Lebanon to its 311 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:50,880 Speaker 1: current stature as a failing state. They were mobilizing Hezbollah 312 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:54,560 Speaker 1: to go to Ukraine fight for the Russians. I would 313 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 1: say they're a junior partner. Other junior partners are Venezuela 314 00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:01,920 Speaker 1: under Maduro, I would say Cuba, I would say Nicaragua. 315 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:05,320 Speaker 1: These are our adversaries in this Cold War. And it's 316 00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:07,280 Speaker 1: different from Cold War One because in the Cold War One, 317 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:10,600 Speaker 1: the Soviet Union was the major player, in China was 318 00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:13,359 Speaker 1: a sidekick. Now China is a major player, in Russia 319 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:17,480 Speaker 1: is a sidekick. Don't forget. Iran and Russia together have 320 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:21,960 Speaker 1: managed to prop up the Assad dictatorship in Syria at 321 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:26,919 Speaker 1: the cost of over five hundred thousand lives, and the 322 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:29,840 Speaker 1: so called international community has sort of said, oh, that's 323 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:32,560 Speaker 1: too bad. But what are you gonna do? Right if 324 00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:34,399 Speaker 1: you go back to what Obama said, I think in 325 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:38,680 Speaker 1: twenty thirteen, Assad has now lived as the leader nine 326 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 1: years longer than Obama predicted because we weren't prepared to 327 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 1: do what it would have taken to have knocked him out. 328 00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:49,000 Speaker 1: So you also have this I think danger that it's 329 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:52,919 Speaker 1: very hard for the West to take seriously the scale 330 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 1: of the threat. And I want to have you take 331 00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:57,920 Speaker 1: just a minute and talk about the point you were 332 00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:00,440 Speaker 1: making in your article. How do you do you think 333 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:04,400 Speaker 1: we need to rebuild the deterrent side and what investments 334 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:07,400 Speaker 1: do we need to make to maximize our ability to 335 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 1: deter anyone from taking us on. Well, at the very least, 336 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:16,159 Speaker 1: if we recognize that there's a new Cold War, we 337 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:17,879 Speaker 1: need to get back to what we were doing in 338 00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 1: the Cold War. And the Cold War we were spending 339 00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:22,960 Speaker 1: probably double what we're spending now as a percentage of 340 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:26,720 Speaker 1: GDP on defense. Our navy is not what it should 341 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 1: be when you consider what Beijing is doing in terms 342 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:33,440 Speaker 1: of building up its seapower, taking over at Solomon Islands, 343 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 1: and building up reefs into military fortresses in the South 344 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:40,680 Speaker 1: China Sea, which is a usually important international trade and 345 00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:44,960 Speaker 1: shipping lane. We need to upgrade and renew our nuclear 346 00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:48,600 Speaker 1: forces again, we need to work on missile defense. There's 347 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:50,640 Speaker 1: just a huge number of things we need to do 348 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 1: if we acknowledge that this is a second Cold War 349 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:58,240 Speaker 1: and a more challenging one. Because Xijingping has a richer 350 00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:01,200 Speaker 1: regime than the Soviet Union ever was, and I think 351 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:04,120 Speaker 1: he's frankly a shrewder and more formidable player than any 352 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,919 Speaker 1: of the Soviet leaders ever were. And then you have 353 00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:09,479 Speaker 1: Russia behind him with a lot of nuclear weapons, a 354 00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:13,760 Speaker 1: lot of ambitions in terms of Eastern Europe and probably 355 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:17,240 Speaker 1: Central Asia as well. So military thinkers need to get 356 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:19,720 Speaker 1: together on this and be thinking about it. But you 357 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:22,440 Speaker 1: need a president who says, yes, this is a priority, 358 00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 1: and that's going to mean a lot of things. That 359 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 1: America needs to be an energy superpower again we were 360 00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 1: just two or three years ago. We can be, but 361 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,199 Speaker 1: we can't be if we believe that the answer to 362 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:36,960 Speaker 1: our fears of a climate change is to get everybody 363 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:40,200 Speaker 1: in America to drive a tesla. That's probably not going 364 00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:43,360 Speaker 1: to do the trick. China is not buying in on 365 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:48,399 Speaker 1: climate change, despite the persuasiveness of John Kerry as a 366 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:52,520 Speaker 1: climate change envoid. It's upgrading its production of coal, among 367 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:54,680 Speaker 1: other things, which is among the worst things he could do. 368 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:57,160 Speaker 1: You want to think of climate change is a challenge, fine, 369 00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:01,160 Speaker 1: but not as an emergency that clips is all other 370 00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:04,000 Speaker 1: threats that we face. And so we need to drill, 371 00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:05,679 Speaker 1: and we need to frack, and we need to do 372 00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,520 Speaker 1: allen g and we need to export, and we need 373 00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:11,359 Speaker 1: to be energy secure, if not energy independent. We need 374 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 1: to work with Canada, and we need to help our 375 00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 1: European allies become more energy secure and not depend on Russia. 376 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:19,359 Speaker 1: A lot of things we need to do if we 377 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:23,760 Speaker 1: understand that the world has changed and we face serious threats. Now, 378 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,720 Speaker 1: we don't have a world in which there's an international 379 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:28,800 Speaker 1: community that all agrees and everything. By the way, the 380 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,040 Speaker 1: other thing we look at it hard is the United Nations, 381 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:35,520 Speaker 1: which has been increasingly subverted, not least by China. The 382 00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:39,120 Speaker 1: UN Human Rights Council is a club for human rights abusers. 383 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:43,119 Speaker 1: The World Health Organization answers to Beijing, the World Trade 384 00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 1: Organization not doing a good job. And even the IMF, 385 00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:48,959 Speaker 1: where we have really a controlling interests we don't use. 386 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:51,560 Speaker 1: In the midst of this, had been giving money to 387 00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:54,720 Speaker 1: Putin's Russia, which it shouldn't be at a time like this, 388 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:58,040 Speaker 1: And even right now, for all the sanctions, Putin has 389 00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:01,159 Speaker 1: been getting about a billion dollars a day through energy sales. 390 00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 1: That money at the very least should be going into 391 00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:25,840 Speaker 1: escrow and not into his pocket. If I can build 392 00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:30,120 Speaker 1: on the deterrence issue, back in two thousand, the Heart 393 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:34,680 Speaker 1: Rudman Commission, which was the largest three year comprehensive look 394 00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:38,440 Speaker 1: since nineteen forty seven, came back and they said that 395 00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:40,960 Speaker 1: the greatest threat to the United States was a weapon 396 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:44,400 Speaker 1: of mass destruction going off in an American city, probably 397 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,760 Speaker 1: by a terrorist group. They went on to say that 398 00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:51,199 Speaker 1: should prevention and deterrence fail, the United States must have 399 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:57,119 Speaker 1: the means of active defense against both mortal danger and blackmail, 400 00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:03,240 Speaker 1: and it went on to advocate that US military, law, enforcement, intelligence, economic, financial, 401 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:06,840 Speaker 1: and diplomatic means have to be effectively integrated for this purpose. 402 00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:11,120 Speaker 1: Coming out of that, we created the Department of Homeland Security, 403 00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:15,199 Speaker 1: which unfortunately was a total disaster the original and I 404 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:17,920 Speaker 1: know this because Clinton and I created the Heart Rudman Commission, 405 00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:20,360 Speaker 1: and he generously asked me to serve on it after 406 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:22,960 Speaker 1: I stepped down a speaker, and I spent three years 407 00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:26,520 Speaker 1: working on this, and our idea of a homeland defense 408 00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:31,760 Speaker 1: department was that it would be capable and focused on 409 00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:36,080 Speaker 1: actually defending the country from attack. So, for example, if 410 00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 1: you had a nuclear weapon go off, or if you 411 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:42,320 Speaker 1: had a weapon of mass disruption like a cyber attack 412 00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,359 Speaker 1: that took down all of the ATMs in the country, 413 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:50,560 Speaker 1: you'd have a department that was focused almost like a gigantic, 414 00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:54,320 Speaker 1: sophisticated civil defense system. To the best of my knowledge, 415 00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:58,680 Speaker 1: we today have nothing capable of responding on that scale, 416 00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:02,280 Speaker 1: and as a result, we are in real danger. I 417 00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:06,399 Speaker 1: think if deterrence fails and we get either a weapon 418 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,600 Speaker 1: of mass disruption, which is very likely, or a weapon 419 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:12,640 Speaker 1: of mass destruction, which is very possible but not quite 420 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:17,320 Speaker 1: as likely, we're totally unprepared to shift over to defending 421 00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:20,240 Speaker 1: the quality of our life, or to defending our freedom, 422 00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:23,960 Speaker 1: or to defending people's lives. So part of reason wanted 423 00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:25,960 Speaker 1: to chat with you today is I think we both 424 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:29,199 Speaker 1: have to rebuild our deterrance so that it's robust and 425 00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:33,880 Speaker 1: totally believable, and we have to take seriously, whether it's 426 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:38,920 Speaker 1: electromagnetic pulse attack or cyber attack or nuclear attack, how 427 00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:43,479 Speaker 1: we would defend America against an aggressive, active effort to 428 00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:46,800 Speaker 1: undermine and destroy us. Now, I'd be curious to get 429 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:50,879 Speaker 1: your reaction to this idea of reasserting defense as a 430 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:54,560 Speaker 1: major component of how we think about national security. Oh, 431 00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:59,360 Speaker 1: I think it's absolutely essential. Improper deterrence means peace through strength. 432 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:02,199 Speaker 1: That Reagan race is that your enemies look at you 433 00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:05,119 Speaker 1: and say it would be too dangerous to provoke or 434 00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:08,280 Speaker 1: challenge the United States they could do us such damage, 435 00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 1: rather than to think, you know, we might be able 436 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:12,560 Speaker 1: to take them. And by the way, you mentioned cyber 437 00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:14,960 Speaker 1: and I neglected to mention that, but it's usually important. 438 00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:18,800 Speaker 1: We have cyber capabilities, but what we want is not 439 00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:22,480 Speaker 1: what we've had. Where China, for example, for years, has 440 00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:25,520 Speaker 1: been stealing billions and billions of dollars of intellectual property, 441 00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:29,520 Speaker 1: including defense intellectual property that is very valuable to us. 442 00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:32,639 Speaker 1: We should be able to prevent that. But also let 443 00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,280 Speaker 1: Russia know that if you do this, we can do 444 00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,840 Speaker 1: damage to you that you cannot recover from. And again 445 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:42,520 Speaker 1: it will not be a fair fight. We have cyber 446 00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:45,320 Speaker 1: abilities that you do not have and you will not have. 447 00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:48,440 Speaker 1: People don't like this, but there's a cyber arms race, 448 00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:50,359 Speaker 1: and there's an arms race in other ways. You've mentioned 449 00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:53,680 Speaker 1: a hypersonic missiles. Yet if there is an arms race, 450 00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:55,879 Speaker 1: we have to not just be winning it. We have 451 00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:58,200 Speaker 1: to be more than a nose ahead of the next horse. 452 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:02,080 Speaker 1: We have to be lengths ahead. That's ambitious, but it's doable, 453 00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:05,480 Speaker 1: and it's more dangerous not to do it than to 454 00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:07,879 Speaker 1: do it. If you're way out in front, they know 455 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,359 Speaker 1: they can't defeat you. If they think, you know what, 456 00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:13,199 Speaker 1: we probably can. They have better capabilities, but we have 457 00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:17,240 Speaker 1: the will. Then we are in a really dangerous situation. Again, 458 00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:20,040 Speaker 1: that's sort of what putin thought here. Okay, I can't 459 00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:22,239 Speaker 1: really take on NATO, but I don't think NY has 460 00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:24,440 Speaker 1: the will to take on me. In two thousand and eight, 461 00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:28,200 Speaker 1: I sliced off two provinces of neighboring Georgia, no one 462 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:31,280 Speaker 1: did anything. In twenty fourteen, I took Crimea and I 463 00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:35,080 Speaker 1: began to occupy the eastern region, the Dunbas region of Ukraine, 464 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,560 Speaker 1: and nothing really bad happened to me as a result. 465 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:41,160 Speaker 1: I can do this again and again and again until 466 00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:42,840 Speaker 1: I do what I want to do and have the 467 00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:45,560 Speaker 1: legacy I want, which is that I restored the Russian 468 00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:49,600 Speaker 1: Empire and perhaps expanded it. That's my mission. And again, 469 00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:52,200 Speaker 1: he's a guy, I understand this. He has more money 470 00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:54,320 Speaker 1: than he can ever spend, with a billion dollar palace 471 00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:57,720 Speaker 1: on the black seat. He has a girlfriend half his age. 472 00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:00,840 Speaker 1: He obeys no laws whatsoever where he can kill people 473 00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:03,239 Speaker 1: when he wants to. And that's okay. So what does 474 00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:05,479 Speaker 1: he want to do. He wants to go down in 475 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,639 Speaker 1: history as Ladimir the Great, a conqueror. And we in 476 00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:11,040 Speaker 1: America and the West don't understand who want to be 477 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:14,000 Speaker 1: a conqueror. But you know, as a historian, that for 478 00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:18,720 Speaker 1: countless centuries. That was the grand ambition to conquer. That's 479 00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:22,240 Speaker 1: what people want it because we don't want that, and 480 00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:24,679 Speaker 1: we only say, oh, we're number one at sports games. 481 00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:28,000 Speaker 1: We've sublimated that drive we think everybody else has, but 482 00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:31,600 Speaker 1: everybody else hasn't. That's right in there's a long Russian tradition. 483 00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 1: He's precisely in the tradition of Peter the Great or 484 00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:40,840 Speaker 1: Catherine or going a lot further back, Ivan the Terrible, 485 00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:43,880 Speaker 1: which meant Ivan the Terrible to his enemies, although it 486 00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,160 Speaker 1: is true that he killed his son at a moment 487 00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:50,000 Speaker 1: of irritation. Wonderful painting by v at Apin. As you know, 488 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:51,760 Speaker 1: I haven't. My wife will let me put it up 489 00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,840 Speaker 1: anywhere where people can see. In the house, the rape 490 00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:57,960 Speaker 1: and painting shows Ivan the Terrible. He has hid his 491 00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:00,280 Speaker 1: son over the head with a big cane. The cane 492 00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:02,600 Speaker 1: is on the floor. He's hit him so hard that 493 00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:05,360 Speaker 1: he's dying. He now realizes what he has done. He 494 00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:08,320 Speaker 1: is mortified. He's holding his son in his arms, the 495 00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:10,560 Speaker 1: canes on the floor, there's a puddle of blood, blood 496 00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:12,760 Speaker 1: is dripping, and he realizes, this is my only heir, 497 00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,000 Speaker 1: and I've just killed him in a fit of temper, 498 00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:18,440 Speaker 1: and it's just an absolutely amazing painting. I think it's 499 00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:20,800 Speaker 1: at the Trechikov Gallery. People should google it and look 500 00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,320 Speaker 1: at it because it's astounding, and I think you've sort 501 00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:26,080 Speaker 1: of captured part of the Russian tradition just in that 502 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:30,200 Speaker 1: one painting. The thing that strikes me it's very hard 503 00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:35,160 Speaker 1: for Americans one to realize how dangerous the world is 504 00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:38,600 Speaker 1: and always has been, how fortunate we've been to have 505 00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:41,600 Speaker 1: been a country with two oceans and ability to grow, 506 00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:45,960 Speaker 1: although our Civil war was horrible. But in addition, you've 507 00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,560 Speaker 1: made a point I really want to reemphasize. That is 508 00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:52,200 Speaker 1: something I've said for my entire career, starting in nineteen 509 00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:55,680 Speaker 1: seventy nine. I've been interacting with the American military on 510 00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 1: a routine basis since then, and I always emphasize we're 511 00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:03,120 Speaker 1: not the business of fair fights. What we want to 512 00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:08,320 Speaker 1: have is overwhelming capacity to win at minimum costs to ourselves, 513 00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:12,160 Speaker 1: and to win as rapidly as possible and as decisively 514 00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:14,760 Speaker 1: as possible. And I think that we have to come 515 00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:17,680 Speaker 1: to grips with how different the world is, how huge 516 00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:21,200 Speaker 1: a challenge China is, how dangerous a challenge Russia is, 517 00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:24,840 Speaker 1: but also that in both Iran and North Korea, you 518 00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:29,040 Speaker 1: have regimes we don't understand and regimes who don't operate 519 00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:33,200 Speaker 1: by our standard or our timetable, and we are not 520 00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:36,760 Speaker 1: today prepared to cope with the scale of threat that 521 00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:39,480 Speaker 1: they represent. And I think that's why we both have 522 00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:42,920 Speaker 1: to rebuild our deterrence, and we have to figure out 523 00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:46,520 Speaker 1: a brand new and much deeper and more sophisticated defense 524 00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:50,600 Speaker 1: system that would enable us to take a punch, minimize 525 00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,560 Speaker 1: casualties to the country, and be able to come roaring 526 00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,440 Speaker 1: back in a very aggressive way. I don't see any 527 00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,120 Speaker 1: way we can avoid that and survive as a country. 528 00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:01,840 Speaker 1: I think it's absolutely right. And the bumpers sticker for 529 00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:04,720 Speaker 1: what you just described is peace through strength. I don't 530 00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:08,200 Speaker 1: think that the Biden administration has come to that conclusion 531 00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:10,720 Speaker 1: at this point. I'll just mention this. I've been writing 532 00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:13,840 Speaker 1: about this, and I'd be helpful to hear your thoughts. Biden, 533 00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:16,960 Speaker 1: when he talked to the Business Roundtable last week, he 534 00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:19,760 Speaker 1: talked about a new world order, and people were very 535 00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:22,560 Speaker 1: puzzled at what that meant. Now, one new world order 536 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:25,240 Speaker 1: was after World War Two, where we set up the 537 00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:29,240 Speaker 1: UN and we tried to establish international laws and institutions, 538 00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:33,040 Speaker 1: and when human rights and all of that, it didn't 539 00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:35,800 Speaker 1: succeed marvelously well. But then you had the collapse of 540 00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:38,440 Speaker 1: the Soviet Union. In President George H. W. Bush talked 541 00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:40,440 Speaker 1: again about a new world order because he threw up. 542 00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:43,320 Speaker 1: With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the international community 543 00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:45,360 Speaker 1: would be more on the same page and we would 544 00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:49,480 Speaker 1: be able to have diplomatic solutions. I think what's very 545 00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:51,800 Speaker 1: clear now is that this gets back to where we're 546 00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:55,120 Speaker 1: saying that the rulers of China, Russia, and Iran all 547 00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:58,000 Speaker 1: see that they want to establish a new world order, 548 00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:01,280 Speaker 1: one in which the US world would be very much diminished. 549 00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:04,160 Speaker 1: It would not be what we've called for years, somewhat 550 00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:10,040 Speaker 1: unwieldy phrase, the liberal rules based American led international order. 551 00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:13,280 Speaker 1: They would make the rules. It would be distinctly illiberal. 552 00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:16,840 Speaker 1: They would say, we are what democracy means, not what 553 00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:20,240 Speaker 1: the United States, that chaotic place, that decadent place, that 554 00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:24,360 Speaker 1: declining place, what they represent. They are trying to establish 555 00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:27,000 Speaker 1: a new world order. Now, again, I don't know exactly 556 00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:29,880 Speaker 1: what Biden had in mind, and I'm not sure he 557 00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:32,880 Speaker 1: necessarily does. And there are a lot of conspiracy theories 558 00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:36,240 Speaker 1: regarding that. But what we have to do is decide 559 00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:38,360 Speaker 1: what we want. There will be an order or there 560 00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:40,840 Speaker 1: will be chaos. We have to decide what we want 561 00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,040 Speaker 1: and what we're willing to do to achieve it. And 562 00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:46,000 Speaker 1: I think that should be the challenge for President Biden. 563 00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:48,600 Speaker 1: He has three years. It certainly has to be the 564 00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:51,560 Speaker 1: challenge for the next president because without that there will 565 00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:54,560 Speaker 1: be declined between now and then. Well, I think that 566 00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:58,520 Speaker 1: if there is a new Republican Congress, as seems likely, 567 00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:03,240 Speaker 1: they need to really make having hearings that are serious, 568 00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:08,280 Speaker 1: intellectually tough, and really exploring this. I mean, you could 569 00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:12,200 Speaker 1: imagine that the scale of the vote in the UN 570 00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:15,080 Speaker 1: was actually pretty startling, and that the degree to which 571 00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:19,280 Speaker 1: large parts of the world responded negatively to Putin's invasion 572 00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:27,719 Speaker 1: probably surprised Jijinping. But translating general positive applause into effective 573 00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:31,800 Speaker 1: military power and being capable in the much harder world 574 00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:36,040 Speaker 1: of reality to move beyond that, I think is a 575 00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:39,239 Speaker 1: very very tall challenge. And again, you live in an 576 00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:43,480 Speaker 1: era where you know, if either Kim Jong un or 577 00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:48,800 Speaker 1: Hamani decided to launch one missile with one nuclear warhead, 578 00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:55,360 Speaker 1: that eliminates any United Nations vote as utterly totally irrelevant, 579 00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:57,720 Speaker 1: and of course it was the United Nations vote in 580 00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:01,080 Speaker 1: the General Assembly. The Security Council couldn't do that because 581 00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,920 Speaker 1: Russia has a veto, China has a veto, So the 582 00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:07,520 Speaker 1: Security Council it was totally impotent in this regard. And 583 00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:10,040 Speaker 1: while the resolution made by the General Assembly was strong, 584 00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:12,960 Speaker 1: it was not nearly as vehement as say statements from 585 00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:16,480 Speaker 1: the General Assembly against Israel for daring to defend itself 586 00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:20,120 Speaker 1: from Hamas rockets. I see huge problems that the United 587 00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:23,160 Speaker 1: Nations as a center of any international community. Again, I 588 00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:26,280 Speaker 1: don't think there really is an international community. The idea 589 00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:31,040 Speaker 1: that China and Costa Rica, Canada and Belgium are all 590 00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:33,880 Speaker 1: members of the same community that can hardly be taken seriously. 591 00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:37,160 Speaker 1: What there should be is a community of nations that 592 00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:40,000 Speaker 1: are free or aspire to be free, and they should 593 00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:43,840 Speaker 1: recognize who opposes those goals and the expansion of freedom. 594 00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:46,160 Speaker 1: And that gets you back into the mode of a 595 00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:47,799 Speaker 1: sort of cold who art, doesn't it, But I think 596 00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:51,360 Speaker 1: it's necessary. Well. I think that the scale of rethinking, 597 00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:55,000 Speaker 1: in the scale of resetting how we approach this is 598 00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:59,640 Speaker 1: truly historic and may actually be as historic as the 599 00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:03,000 Speaker 1: effort that had to go underway between nineteen forty five 600 00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:05,920 Speaker 1: and nineteen fifty In coming to groups with how different 601 00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:08,080 Speaker 1: the world was, I said, I want to thank you 602 00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:10,719 Speaker 1: for joining me. I think this is a really important 603 00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,920 Speaker 1: and timely topic, and we're going to connect your article 604 00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:18,160 Speaker 1: and also the Foundation for the Defensive Democracy on our 605 00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:21,080 Speaker 1: show page. And you do amazing work. The team you've 606 00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:24,680 Speaker 1: assembled is one of the smartest national security teams that 607 00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,160 Speaker 1: I know of, and it's a great honor to have 608 00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:29,600 Speaker 1: you be with us. My honor be with you a 609 00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:35,839 Speaker 1: long time friend and admirers, So thanks so much. Thank 610 00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,200 Speaker 1: you to my guests. Cliff May you can read his 611 00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:41,120 Speaker 1: article the Death of mad and the urgent need to 612 00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:44,880 Speaker 1: re establish the Terrence on our show page at newtsworld 613 00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:48,160 Speaker 1: dot com, as well as a connection to the Foundation 614 00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:51,960 Speaker 1: for the Defensive Democracy. Newtsworld is produced by Gingwish three 615 00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:56,719 Speaker 1: sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Garnsey Sloan, our 616 00:35:56,760 --> 00:36:00,960 Speaker 1: producer is Rebecca Howe, and our researcher is Rachel Peterson. 617 00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:04,600 Speaker 1: The artwork for the show was created by Steve Penley. 618 00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:08,319 Speaker 1: Special thanks to the team at Gingwidge three sixty. If 619 00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:10,600 Speaker 1: you've been enjoying newts World, I hope you'll go to 620 00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:14,160 Speaker 1: Apple Podcast and both rate us with five stars and 621 00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:16,560 Speaker 1: give us a review so others can learn what it's 622 00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:19,879 Speaker 1: all about. Right now, listeners of newts World can sign 623 00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:23,600 Speaker 1: up for my three free weekly columns at Gingwish three 624 00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:28,000 Speaker 1: sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrich. This is 625 00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:28,680 Speaker 1: newts World