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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we

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Speaker 2: go from throwing out so spect I'm saying it's a

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Speaker 2: cash touchtop.

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Speaker 1: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to Swann.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right, this is the ultimate combine and.

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Speaker 3: We are underway.

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Speaker 5: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 5: I'm Jill Glands. I'm joined by the hardest working man

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Speaker 5: at the Action Network, that is Evan Abrams. He joins

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Speaker 5: me each and every week for the recap show, and

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Speaker 5: we're gonna dive into all of the Sunday NFL action

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Speaker 5: for week twelve. Brandon Anderson, of course, will join us.

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Speaker 5: He'll have his hot reads later in the show. And

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Speaker 5: Patrick Everson will join us at the end of the show.

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Speaker 5: He's from Vegas Insider. He'll give us an update on

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Speaker 5: how the sportsbooks did this week in Vegas and how

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Speaker 5: they fared for NFL Sunday. But first, Evan, as always,

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Speaker 5: let's talk about Monday Night Football Bears Vikings and FC

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Speaker 5: North matchup. Vikings' home favorites of minus three with an

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Speaker 5: over under forty three and a half, and I guess

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Speaker 5: for me, Evan, I'm a little worried about the spread

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Speaker 5: in this game. I don't really try. I love Josh Dobbs,

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Speaker 5: don't get me wrong. I think Josh Dobbs is the

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Speaker 5: best story in the NFL. But I don't know if

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Speaker 5: I could trust him as a three point favorite, even

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Speaker 5: against this Bears team.

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Speaker 4: And I'm kind of leaning to the over.

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Speaker 5: I get the primetime under trend we did this last

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Speaker 5: week when we talked about Eagles Chiefs, I was like,

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Speaker 5: I like the over this one. I kind of liked

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Speaker 5: the over because we don't have as solid of defense

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Speaker 5: as involved as what we saw last week. So here's

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Speaker 5: why I like the over forty three and a half.

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Speaker 5: I think the Bears, especially when they play in the

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Speaker 5: dome Justin Fields, they can start fast. We've seen now

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Speaker 5: in the time of Justin Field's either playing in Detroit

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Speaker 5: or playing in Dallas, or anytime he's played in a dome,

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Speaker 5: like for example at Atlanta, the offensive number uptick. You

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Speaker 5: start to see a higher accuracy, you start to see

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Speaker 5: a higher yards per attempt, and I think, like the

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Speaker 5: Lions game last week, they could start fast, score but

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Speaker 5: then leave the door open for that late rally from

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Speaker 5: the Vikings, which is why I'm even at a three. Now,

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Speaker 5: if you gave me a three and a half, we

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Speaker 5: could talk, but or maybe even a four. But at three,

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Speaker 5: I feel like that's a push waiting to happen. And

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Speaker 5: the Bears their defense, they're twenty fifth overall in defensive DVOA,

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Speaker 5: but where they're really weak is versus the past twenty

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Speaker 5: seventh the DVOA versus the past. That's not good for

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Speaker 5: a late cover, like where you're in a position where

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Speaker 5: if your defense needs to hold strong and I think

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Speaker 5: both quarterbacks are gonna throw a lot in this game.

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Speaker 5: The Bears are seven and four to the over this year.

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Speaker 5: That's the best mark in the NFL. There's seventeen and

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Speaker 5: eleven to the over since the start of last season.

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Speaker 5: So I really like the over forty three and a

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Speaker 5: half in this game. I want to stay away from

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Speaker 5: the side. What are you looking at, Evan? Would you

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Speaker 5: play the over? Would you play the under? Or are

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Speaker 5: you think can Vikings cover at home? What are you

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Speaker 5: thinking here?

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Speaker 2: I just think you need to look at this initially

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Speaker 2: from this point of view, So most casual betters looking

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Speaker 2: at this game. Would probably trust Minnesota, right. You seen

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Speaker 2: Dobbs in multiple primetime games. He's looked pretty decent. Minnesota

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Speaker 2: seems like a better team. Chicago has an awful history.

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Speaker 2: They never win these NFC North games. But the interesting

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Speaker 2: thing is you look at the tickets fifty to fifty

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Speaker 2: right now. Personally, I took Chicago plus a three and

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Speaker 2: a half earlier in the week.

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Speaker 4: Better number down to three now.

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Speaker 2: I just don't see it either way, Like and over

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Speaker 2: over under was forty five and a half even failier

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Speaker 2: now down to forty four, even forty three and a

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Speaker 2: half in places, I just don't trust either team really

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Speaker 2: at all, nor do I trust either quarterback. I'm really

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Speaker 2: not a pastor not guy. I'm not a Dobbs guy.

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Speaker 2: I've been saying it from the beginning. He just he's

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Speaker 2: formidable in a position where he I think he's more

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Speaker 2: of a game manager who can move you know, he's

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Speaker 2: got a little ability in that place, but he can't

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Speaker 2: throw it downfield. He's a you know, one to ten

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Speaker 2: guy versus a you know, ten to fifteen in that

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Speaker 2: area when in terms of passing, so you just don't

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Speaker 2: see him like move the chains a ton in that,

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Speaker 2: so and then you're dealing with Fields on the other side,

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Speaker 2: where you know who the heck knows what you're gonna get. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: the trends twelve and one to the under on Monday

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Speaker 2: Night football, Yes, Monday Night Football under his fifty seven

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Speaker 2: twenty eight and one since twenty nineteen, so it's even

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Speaker 2: a long.

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Speaker 4: Term type deal.

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Speaker 2: And then one of my favorite trends when both teams

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Speaker 2: on extended rest expect the low scoring game one oh

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Speaker 2: two forty seven and one. That's sixty eight percent since

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Speaker 2: twenty eighteen and twenty six and five this season, So

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Speaker 2: crazy numbers there, obviously. Uh you know, listen, Initially, I

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Speaker 2: think everyone would say gotta fade the Bears right six

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Speaker 2: twenty and one, it gets a spread versus the NFC North.

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Speaker 2: But I think I think I kind of like him,

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Speaker 2: And from a touchdown point of view, I kind of

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Speaker 2: like Fields. I think first touchdown any time. I think

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Speaker 2: if Chicago actually does what I think they can do

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Speaker 2: and they cover the game, I think it's probably him

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Speaker 2: inside the dome. Maybe he gets running a little bit,

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Speaker 2: but that's my thoughts.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so at the three I would be like, Okay,

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Speaker 5: I would prefer the three and a half. Sure, I

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Speaker 5: would tell you do not bet the Bears money line

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Speaker 5: at this stage. I know people will look at that

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Speaker 5: and think, I'll just take the money line on the

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Speaker 5: short spread. But the Bears they're one and nine straight

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Speaker 5: up in their last ten road games, two and thirteen

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Speaker 5: straight up in their last fifteen road games.

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Speaker 4: I mean, when the.

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Speaker 5: Opponent scores twenty or more points, the Bears and Fields lose.

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Speaker 5: That's really what it's come down to. So I think

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Speaker 5: more points are going to be scored because that's why

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Speaker 5: I think the Bears might end up losing in this stretch.

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Speaker 5: I will say the.

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Speaker 4: Past are not part.

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Speaker 5: I'm not really digging a lot of Vikings touchdown scores,

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Speaker 5: Like right now, it's still undecided if Justin Jefferson's going

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Speaker 5: to play.

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Speaker 4: Even if he does play, you don't.

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Speaker 5: Want to bet a touchdown score on first game coming

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Speaker 5: back from an injury with barely any connection with Dobbs.

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Speaker 5: But I think Dobbs as a touchdown scorer just as

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Speaker 5: valuable maybe as Fields.

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Speaker 4: I feel like they're both kind of playing the same game.

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Speaker 5: And Dobbs, I mean he has rushing touchdowns now in

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Speaker 5: five straight games. Fourteen Red zone carries this year, which

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Speaker 5: is just a notch below where Josh Allen and Jalen

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Speaker 5: hurtzier when it comes to red zone carries per game.

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Speaker 5: And I think another reason why I like Josh Dobbs

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Speaker 5: is similar to because he doesn't really he can't really

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Speaker 5: make those passes past the twenty yard mark. Well, two

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Speaker 5: of his six touchdowns this year have been scored outside

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Speaker 5: of the ten yard line. He's taking off from the

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Speaker 5: fifteen to twenty yard line and then scoring, so two

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Speaker 5: of the touchdowns have been scored from one yard all

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Speaker 5: the rest have it scored outside of ten. So that's

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Speaker 5: one of the things about Dobbs and where he's been

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Speaker 5: successful over the last few weeks, a bit of a

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Speaker 5: poor man's Kyler Murray. I mean, Kyler has scored now

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Speaker 5: in three straight games. And as I said, I think

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Speaker 5: Dobbs is the best story of football, so I really

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Speaker 5: just can't bet against him at this stage. I will

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Speaker 5: say this though, Evan Justin Fields, it shocked me that

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Speaker 5: his interception ads this week are at plus money. So

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Speaker 5: Justin Fields has only had I tracked the interception odds

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Speaker 5: for every quarterback. He has only had plus odds once

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Speaker 5: since the start of last year where he became a starter.

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Speaker 5: It was Week two versus the Buccaneers and he had

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Speaker 5: two interceptions in that game. In thirty two games that

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Speaker 5: Justin Fields has started, he has an interception in twenty

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Speaker 5: of them. That's a sixty two percent hit rate. Ten

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Speaker 5: of seventeen road games in that stretch fifty eight percent. Now,

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Speaker 5: the Vikings, they're not exactly a defensive juggernaut, but they

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Speaker 5: do rank top ten in DVOA in both pass and

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Speaker 5: the rush, and they have a twelve and a half

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Speaker 5: percent pass defended rate along with a two point three

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Speaker 5: percent interception rate, where that ranks is both around the

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Speaker 5: top ten and over the Vikings last six games, an

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Speaker 5: opposing quarterback has thrown an interception in five of them.

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Speaker 5: The one who didn't was Russell Wilson, and the Vikings

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Speaker 5: dropped two would be interceptions in that game, so I

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Speaker 5: think the interception left will come back. Especially, I just

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Speaker 5: find it really hard to pass on Justin Fields and

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Speaker 5: an interception prop when it's plus money, given his track

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Speaker 5: record of bad ball eight and also just throwing interceptions

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Speaker 5: and just looking like a bad quarterback throwing the ball sometimes,

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Speaker 5: I would never knock him as a runner, great runner

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Speaker 5: as a quarterback, but throwing the ball, I think we

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Speaker 5: could both agree, both him and Dobbs, it's going to

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Speaker 5: be difficult to see big passes or at least efficient

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Speaker 5: quality passes that we're used to seeing maybe from the

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Speaker 5: top end of quarterbacks in the NFL. All right, so

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Speaker 5: that's Monday Night football. But now let's dive into Sunday

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Speaker 5: evan where favorites tore it up eleven and three straight

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Speaker 5: up and eleven and three against the spread. Favorites now

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Speaker 5: fifty four and eighteen straight up since Week eight with

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Speaker 5: a thirty nine and thirty one and two against the

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Speaker 5: spread record. Can you put into context like eleven and

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Speaker 5: three straight up and eleven and three against the spread

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Speaker 5: for favorites. We talked about this a little bit off air,

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Speaker 5: but can you expand on how historical this could be.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so we're sitting here watching Sunday night football right now.

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Speaker 2: So if the Ravens do cover as favorites and push

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Speaker 2: that to twelve and three against the spread, that would

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Speaker 2: be only the fifth time in the wild Card era

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Speaker 2: since nineteen ninety that you've seen twelve favorites cover in

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Speaker 2: a week. And we actually in the Super Bowl. Are

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Speaker 2: have never seen thirteen? So uh, the opportunity again sits

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Speaker 2: on the past or not and the Vikings as three

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Speaker 2: point favorite smart and on Monday Night football. If the

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Speaker 2: uh Rams pool cover on Sunday Night Football, Yeah, so uh,

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Speaker 2: twelve and three then could be thirteen and three against

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Speaker 2: the spread wild run. But again, as you said, just

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Speaker 2: a crazy if you've been betting underdogs lately, not pretty

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Speaker 2: only eighteen underdogs winning outright since wek eight in a lot.

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Speaker 5: And another thing that the public loves is overs. And

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Speaker 5: with the recent trend, the season of unders now at

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Speaker 5: one four seventy three and one for the season, so

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Speaker 5: fifty eight percent of all games have gone under this year.

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Speaker 5: We actually saw an uptick in overs this week for

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Speaker 5: Week twelve at nine and five entering Sunday Night Football

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Speaker 5: to the over. And I think we could thank Thanksgiving

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Speaker 5: for that when we saw in Black Friday as well,

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Speaker 5: when we saw four of those games all four of

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Speaker 5: them go over.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, just the roller coaster insane. So overs, unders, overs, unders,

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Speaker 2: but overall one oh four seventy three and one, and

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Speaker 2: even recently is where the trend kind of takes it

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Speaker 2: to a new level most profitable underseasons through twelve weeks

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Speaker 2: since nineteen ninety, twenty twenty three, twenty twenty two, twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty one in that order, So what a ride. And

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Speaker 2: then actually watching this Ravens Chargers games right now, it's

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Speaker 2: worth noting the night unders, Primetime unders, so Primetime unders

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Speaker 2: thirty two and thirteen, which includes the Thanksgiving games, international

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Speaker 2: games basically standalone games this season, and then nighttime twenty

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Speaker 2: seven and nine, so we'll see if that keeps going tonight.

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Speaker 5: Well, one game, Evan that we had did not have

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Speaker 5: to worry about whether or not the total was going

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Speaker 5: to go over or not was Bill's Eagles. We say

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Speaker 5: this every week, it feels like it's the game of

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Speaker 5: the week and they always just kind of fall short.

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Speaker 4: Where this is one game where both teams came to play.

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Speaker 5: We saw some spotty play at the start from the

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Speaker 5: Eagles and then we saw them come back late. So

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Speaker 5: the Eagles win thirty seven to thirty four in overtime.

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Speaker 5: The Eagles do cover is three point home favorites. We're

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Speaker 5: going to talk about that more and here in a second.

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Speaker 5: With the over under of forty nine and Evan, the

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Speaker 5: Bills now a little bit in disarray, fall to seven

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Speaker 5: and six. They've lost three of their last four games,

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Speaker 5: and now they're heading into a buy with the Chiefs

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Speaker 5: on deck. They've got to go into Arrowhead and play

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Speaker 5: the Chiefs coming off of BUYE.

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Speaker 2: Schedules really brutal forgetting just Kansas City, Dallas Chargers and

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Speaker 2: those are next three coming up. And as you said,

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Speaker 2: you can't lose any more games. You're not in the

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Speaker 2: NFC either, you're in the AFC. So it's getting really

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Speaker 2: really late early for Buffalo. We're gonna talk about this

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Speaker 2: every single week because it's just who he is. But

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Speaker 2: it's just worth noting Josh Allen eight straight games now

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Speaker 2: with an interception. He's just that's just what he is

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Speaker 2: as a quarterback. I believe the record is twelve, so

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Speaker 2: you know, we're gonna have to wait a few more

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Speaker 2: weeks to try to get to that. But you know,

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Speaker 2: last time Josh Allen didn't have a turnover and consecutive

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Speaker 2: regular season starts was in twenty twenty, guys, so this

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Speaker 2: is the quarterback he is, most interceptions, most fumbles since

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Speaker 2: twenty eighteen. But I want to say, watching the game today,

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Speaker 2: I think I learned more about Buffalo than I did

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Speaker 2: about Philly. Yeah, the stat about the Eagles being four

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Speaker 2: and oh this year when trailing by ten points or

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Speaker 2: more at any point. We've seen this story before, you know.

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Speaker 2: I was more impressed by Buffalo being in this game

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Speaker 2: based off of all the injuries they've had and the team.

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Speaker 2: I didn't think they were anymore. But they led most

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Speaker 2: of the game. They were in the game, they were up.

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Speaker 2: They did fall apart, but I did kind of like

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Speaker 2: what I saw from the team overall, if that makes

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Speaker 2: any sense.

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Speaker 5: Absolutely, But I will say that the Bills blew it

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Speaker 5: on multiple levels because what we've talked about with Buffalo

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Speaker 5: over the last month is and these games where they're losing,

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Speaker 5: like to the Patriots or to the Jaguars, is they're

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Speaker 5: starting off slow. They're waiting until the third or fourth

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Speaker 5: quarter to turn it on. They didn't do that today.

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Speaker 5: They came out strong. They led seventeen to seven at halftime.

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Speaker 5: They held Jalen Hurts in that offense to less than

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Speaker 5: one hundred yards total. They looked great, But the issue

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Speaker 5: is that they were playing ben don't break type of defense,

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Speaker 5: and when you play that against a team like the

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Speaker 5: Eagles or the Chiefs or the Niners. You can't leave

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Speaker 5: any room for error. You've got to be aggressive. That's

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Speaker 5: easy for me to say sitting in my couch. But

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Speaker 5: at the same time, in overtime, the Bills settled for

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Speaker 5: a field goal. Their defense in the second half hadn't

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Speaker 5: stopped the Eagles at all, and they converted multiple third

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Speaker 5: downs in overtime. They had to score a touchdown there

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Speaker 5: because they were just so gassed. They had to get

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Speaker 5: out of there, because the attrition was just slowly kicking in.

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Speaker 5: Like you said about their defense, because their defense again

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Speaker 5: played well, but just as the game was going on,

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Speaker 5: just starting to become weaker and weaker. And really what

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Speaker 5: it came down to as well, this spread. Those two

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Speaker 5: missed field goals by the Bills. As soon as he

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Speaker 5: missed that second field goal, you knew that was going

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Speaker 5: to play a part in how this spread went down.

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Speaker 5: Because there were people out there with three and a

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Speaker 5: halfs feeling pretty confident, a lot of people out there

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Speaker 5: even with threes, feeling pretty confident with the Bills spread,

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Speaker 5: and they knew when those second field goal got missed,

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Speaker 5: if the Eagles go up by another touchdown, they're going

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Speaker 5: to win by four, and that's exactly what happened. We

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Speaker 5: thought maybe they would go for another field goal, maybe

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Speaker 5: they would settle for the tide. Jalen Hurts runs that in,

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Speaker 5: and you know what gets lost in this That fifty

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Speaker 5: nine yard field goal in the rain by Jake Elliott

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Speaker 5: might have been the best field goal season, might have

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Speaker 5: been the best field goal that we've seen in just

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Speaker 5: a pressure situation with the rain and the elements, and

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Speaker 5: the fact that he nailed that to send that game

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Speaker 5: to overtime I thought was a really impressive thing. But

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Speaker 5: this game, for me Evan, it was a big the

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Speaker 5: analytics stats crowd versus the old head eye test crowd,

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Speaker 5: because everybody will look at that Eagles record, they'll say, well,

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Speaker 5: they're ten and one, so they're clearly the better team.

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Speaker 5: Whereas everybody who will look into the stats and see

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Speaker 5: the luck factor and things that we have seen where

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Speaker 5: they're getting out gained in five straight games. The Bills

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Speaker 5: were a better team on paper, at least from the

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Speaker 5: statistical data, but still could not pull it out because

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Speaker 5: Josh Allen just kind of still puts himself in these

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Speaker 5: positions where he throws an interception or they're not being

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Speaker 5: as aggressive as they should be in those spots.

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Speaker 4: I don't want to put that all on Allen.

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Speaker 5: I think that might be a little bit of Sean McDermott,

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Speaker 5: who you know, you can't you can't blame your offensive

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Speaker 5: coordinator for that, right like at this point, So I

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Speaker 5: think with this game, what we take away from it,

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Speaker 5: Like the Eagles now, they have pretty interesting schedule coming up.

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Speaker 5: They're ten and one, but they've got the forty nine

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Speaker 5: Ers coming up here, very high profile matchup of that

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Speaker 5: NFC Championship game rematch. And then of course they go

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Speaker 5: to Dallas to play the Cowboys, Seahawks Giants Cardinals Giants

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Speaker 5: to end off the year. But those two games really

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Speaker 5: are gonna determine the rest of the year of whether

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Speaker 5: or not they're going to go, you know, sixteen and

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Speaker 5: one or you know, fourteen and three. I think they

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Speaker 5: pretty much have the NFC wrapped up. But tell us

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Speaker 5: a little bit more about what you're thinking for this

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Speaker 5: Eagles Niners game coming up next week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, just something fun I looked up, so an obvious

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Speaker 2: thought process one would have when looking at this. So

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Speaker 2: the Eagles are ten and one now and are currently

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Speaker 2: plus one and a half, so they are home underdogs

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Speaker 2: against the forty nine ers. So Philly would be the

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Speaker 2: fourth team with a ninety percent win percentage in game

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Speaker 2: twelve or later to be a home underdog in the

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Speaker 2: last twenty years. Okay, Now, the craziest thing about that

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Speaker 2: is is two of those previous three home underdogs were

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Speaker 2: because of backup quarterbacks. So that's in a situation where

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Speaker 2: you've got Chad Henny in or you've got you know,

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Speaker 2: m Patrick Mahomes out. It's a situation like that. Only

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Speaker 2: one other time has there been a starter in that spot.

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Speaker 2: So basically, this is a second situation in the last

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Speaker 2: twenty years that the Eagles are in. The other situation

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Speaker 2: where we've had this Ben Roethlisberger in the two thousand

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Speaker 2: and five AFC Championship game against the Patriots, which they lost.

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Speaker 2: So this is a truly unique, once in a you know,

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Speaker 2: two decade game where you've got a forty nine er

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Speaker 2: team that's this complete and this good and you know,

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Speaker 2: Philly was I believe minus one, minus two and then

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Speaker 2: all of a sudden flips, So now the Eagles are

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Speaker 2: home dogs and creating a bit of a unique spot.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I definitely think we're gonna see a lot more

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Speaker 5: money coming in on the Eagles as we get closer

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Speaker 5: to that game, where that spread might just become a

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Speaker 5: Pickham or Niners minus one, I think at that at

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Speaker 5: that stage. But yeah, so that's the Eagles and Bill's game.

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Speaker 5: Let's move on to Jaguars Texans, which also may have

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Speaker 5: had some playoff connotations and trickle down effect as the

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Speaker 5: game went on. But Jaguars do win twenty four to

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Speaker 5: twenty one over the Texans, and the total does go

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Speaker 5: under a forty eight, but the Jaguars do covers one

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Speaker 5: and a half point road favorites, And now Trevor Lawrence

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Speaker 5: and the Jaguars are seven and one straight up in

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Speaker 5: his last eight starts as a favorite. And I think

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Speaker 5: that's important to note because now when you look at

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Speaker 5: the Jaguars upcoming schedule and the Texans upcoming schedule.

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Speaker 4: It's pretty even.

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Speaker 5: But when you look at the Jags schedule, they're probably

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Speaker 5: only going to be an underdog in one of those games.

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Speaker 5: They've got the Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Bucks, Panthers, Titans, So

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Speaker 5: I think the Ravens is the game where they'll likely

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Speaker 5: be an underdog in that spot, but the rest of those,

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Speaker 5: I mean, they're gonna be facing backup quarterbacks in the

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Speaker 5: next two games, so it should be they're going to

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Speaker 5: be favored and those should be easier wins, even as

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Speaker 5: good as the Browns defense is. Uh So, the Jaguars,

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Speaker 5: I think, you know, four and two, if they were

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Speaker 5: to go in that spot, I think that pretty much

391
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Speaker 5: will lock up the AFC South. I don't think it'll

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Speaker 5: be enough though, to get the one.

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Speaker 4: Seed in the AFC.

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Speaker 2: Here's a change of fortune for us though, Like the

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Speaker 2: Jaguars are front runners now they're covering as faiths. But

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Speaker 2: the thing that's so weird about this is entering the season,

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Speaker 2: and I'm going to get this wrong, but I believe

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Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence was like three and seven straight up as

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Speaker 2: a favorite. He was four three, four, five games under

400
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Speaker 2: five hundred and that spo and yeah, exactly right and

401
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Speaker 2: completely and utterly flipped on its head. And you're completely right.

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Speaker 2: They've been really, really good, and they've been covering these

403
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Speaker 2: spreads and these numbers, even on the road, which gets

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Speaker 2: to probably the number of the game for Jacksonville, which

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Speaker 2: is they've now covered ten straight road slash neutral games.

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Speaker 2: That is the longest such streak, not only in Jaguars

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Speaker 2: franchise history, but for any team over the last twenty years.

408
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Speaker 2: A bunch of teams have done it at nine, no

409
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Speaker 2: team has done ten straight. So right now, between London

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Speaker 2: and just going all over the place, Jaguars can't be beat.

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Speaker 2: Their offense is good, their defense is good. Everything is

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Speaker 2: kind of running together, and Peterson is so logistically well

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Speaker 2: put together and well rounded. I think they're just tough

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Speaker 2: to beat.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 2: The thing that's great about this game is also how

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Speaker 2: well put together Houston is. Right, we could say all

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Speaker 2: those great things about Jacksonville and then also on the

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Speaker 2: other side say Houston was also in the game the

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Speaker 2: entire time and also could have won. And also all

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Speaker 2: these things says so much about Demigo, so much about Stroud.

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Speaker 2: You know, I'll say this right. CJ. Stroud was two

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Speaker 2: hundred to one to an MVPN during Week nine. He

424
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Speaker 2: was eleven to one a few hours ago, so he

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Speaker 2: has really entered himself into the conversation. He now has

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Speaker 2: the second most passing yards through eleven starts in history,

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Speaker 2: behind jess Patrick Mahomes. I just don't think enough needs

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Speaker 2: to be said about that. He's been great but fantastic

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Speaker 2: game overall.

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Speaker 5: You know, did passed Justin Herbert for the most passing

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Speaker 5: yards by a rookie though today and he still has

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Speaker 5: six games left, three hundred and six yards and two

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Speaker 5: touchdowns For Stroud, I mean Stroud to his credit, he

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Speaker 5: got the Texans back in de range to potentially tie

435
00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,879
Speaker 5: the game. Amadola missed the field goal, so as a result,

436
00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 5: now the Jags win, they control the AFC South. But really,

437
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 5: I thought the Jaguars blew this game. I feel like

438
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 5: I've said that now four times this year. I feel

439
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 5: like the Jaguars almost blew this game, or they blew

440
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,440
Speaker 5: it in general, because at the end of the first half,

441
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:50,120
Speaker 5: if you were watching, they got a gift with one

442
00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:53,280
Speaker 5: play at the one yard line one second left, Christian

443
00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:55,639
Speaker 5: Kirk gets a long catch, gets out of bounds at

444
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 5: the one yard line, and Doug Peterson. I don't know

445
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:01,879
Speaker 5: why they don't keep the ball in Trevor Lawrence's hands.

446
00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 5: Does this weird pitch to Etien Again. I'm not knocking

447
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:07,080
Speaker 5: him for going for the touchdown, but the play call

448
00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:09,399
Speaker 5: was just not where it needs to be. It was

449
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:11,479
Speaker 5: just a huge missed opportunity because they could have went

450
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:13,560
Speaker 5: up twenty to seven. They were getting the ball at

451
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:15,880
Speaker 5: the start of the second half. But it's just Doug

452
00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:19,159
Speaker 5: Peterson man with these play calls, like sometimes his pants.

453
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 4: They're just they're just a little too fancy sometimes.

454
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 5: And you know, I think the Jaguars were lucky to

455
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 5: pull out this win. I feel like the Texans give

456
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:32,159
Speaker 5: them everything they could, and I think the Texans if

457
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 5: they were to play a third time on a neutral field,

458
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:36,120
Speaker 5: I think the Texans.

459
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:36,439
Speaker 4: Would be favored.

460
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 5: Honestly, I feel like I think a lot of the

461
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:41,080
Speaker 5: public would end up backing Houston just as a better

462
00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 5: story as opposed to the Jaguars. Now, the Texans, I

463
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:47,160
Speaker 5: will say they're six and five in the AFC. They've

464
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:52,240
Speaker 5: got the Broncos, Jets, Titans, Browns, Titans again, and then

465
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:55,480
Speaker 5: the Colts, so three divisional games in the final four games.

466
00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:58,880
Speaker 5: I'm not saying that they can win the AFC South.

467
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,639
Speaker 5: What I'm saying is that if I keep saying the

468
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:04,879
Speaker 5: Jags blew it every week, the Texans are going to

469
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 5: be right there because they have a split on the

470
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:10,119
Speaker 5: season series. So really it just will come down to

471
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 5: whether or not the Jaguars take care of business, but

472
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,399
Speaker 5: so far from what we've seen from Jacksonville is that

473
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 5: when they are favored, they do take care of business.

474
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 5: So that's where we're at now in the AFC South.

475
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 5: But let's move to the AFC North between the Steelers

476
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:27,480
Speaker 5: and the Bengals. Steelers win sixteen to ten in a

477
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:31,879
Speaker 5: classic AFC North score. The total goes under of thirty

478
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 5: six and a half and these Steelers cover as two

479
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 5: point favorites and evan dating back to the start of

480
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:43,359
Speaker 5: the twenty twenty one season. Now Pittsburgh move over Minnesota.

481
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:46,919
Speaker 5: They are twenty two eight and one in one score games.

482
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,120
Speaker 5: The voodoo magic is back for Pittsburgh.

483
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:53,320
Speaker 2: One score games ten and one last eleven I believe,

484
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:56,320
Speaker 2: twelve and two last fourteen. Yeah, they are even after

485
00:23:56,400 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 2: last week where the streak was broken. Welcome back Pittsburgh, right.

486
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 2: The two notes for me Bengals win total under has now.

487
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:06,359
Speaker 4: Cashed with those eleven and a half.

488
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, eleven and a half. So Bengals win total under

489
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,440
Speaker 2: and Panthers win total under which was seven and a

490
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:17,200
Speaker 2: half were first two cashers of the season. Texans over

491
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 2: six and a half was the one we were waiting

492
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 2: for didn't happen today, Maybe next week, but so Bengals

493
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 2: under in the books. The other one that's interesting, low

494
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:31,359
Speaker 2: totals this season, So three and one today. Now, what

495
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:34,399
Speaker 2: does low total means? So totals of seven, totals of

496
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:37,679
Speaker 2: thirty seven or less. Good ready for this one twenty

497
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 2: two four and one. Since twenty twenty twenty two to

498
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 2: four and one thirty eight or less is thirty two

499
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 2: to eleven and one. Patriots, Giants, Steelers, Bengals, Panthers, Titans

500
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 2: all under three and zero, and then Brown's Broncos went over.

501
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 2: So that was there. Three and one. But crazy, crazy

502
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:01,399
Speaker 2: run on these really really low total So I have

503
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 2: to see how that works for next week.

504
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, those games too, even the Broncos game need a

505
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:08,120
Speaker 5: little Shenanigans there at the end.

506
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 4: To even go over.

507
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 5: But outside of the first half in this game, this

508
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:16,720
Speaker 5: was a comfortable under as well, because the Steelers did

509
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 5: not have much to worry about Jake Browning and the Bengals.

510
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 5: They were two and ten on third down. They had

511
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:24,440
Speaker 5: no run game at all, and that's been an ongoing

512
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:26,919
Speaker 5: issue for Cincey. It's not just Joe Burrow or not.

513
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:29,040
Speaker 5: Joe Mixon in this run game just has not got

514
00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 5: anything going. They only had twenty five total rushing yards.

515
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 5: And this was actually the first time in fifty eight

516
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:38,960
Speaker 5: games that the Steelers went over four hundred yards of offense.

517
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,119
Speaker 5: And that's one of the things that I wanted to

518
00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:44,639
Speaker 5: talk about is because we look at that and we're like, Wow,

519
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 5: Matt Canada's gone.

520
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 4: What a resurgence.

521
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 5: And I'm not going to pretend like I'm a Matt

522
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 5: Canada apologist here, but Kenny Pikett still looks awful for

523
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,960
Speaker 5: the most part. Like Steelers were eight for thirteen on

524
00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 5: third down today, six of those canted we're from the

525
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 5: run game. It was not from Kenny Picktt. We get

526
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 5: a lord sometimes with these deep bombs down the sideline

527
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 5: to George Pickens, and there was a nice connection between

528
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 5: him and Friarmuth today. I won't deny that, but I'm

529
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 5: not ready just to be like, oh, Okay, Matt Canada's gone.

530
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 5: Here comes the offensive resurgence by the Steelers team. And

531
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 5: now that we're looking at the AFC North with that

532
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:25,159
Speaker 5: win today and the Browns. We'll talk about the Browns

533
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:27,880
Speaker 5: Broncos later. The Browns did lose. So Browns are seven

534
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 5: and four, Steelers are seven and four in the AFC North,

535
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 5: Bengals down to five and six. Ravens playing the Chargers

536
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 5: right now, they're eight and three. They're likely going to

537
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 5: win that game to move the nine to three. But

538
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:42,159
Speaker 5: right now the Steelers coming up. I've got the Cardinals,

539
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 5: They've got the Patriots, They've got the Colts, and then

540
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:49,439
Speaker 5: the Bengals again, and then Seattle and then Baltimore. The

541
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 5: Steelers are going to backdoor their way into the playoffs,

542
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 5: even I think we just have to admit. I think

543
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:55,919
Speaker 5: we just have to accept it now that even if

544
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:57,920
Speaker 5: we don't like them, they're gonna make it there.

545
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you didn't like Ken, you pick it against

546
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,640
Speaker 2: Cincanty today because you thought they were facing Jake Browning

547
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:07,439
Speaker 2: and maybe their defense was in like a bad leverage situation. Well,

548
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:09,640
Speaker 2: let me tell you. They've got Arizona next week. So

549
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,680
Speaker 2: I think Kenny's gonna look just fine again, and it's gonna,

550
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 2: you know, kind of piss off people. Arizona's defense thinks

551
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 2: they get no pressure. They made the Rams look unbelievable today,

552
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:21,159
Speaker 2: So my guess is it's probably gonna look similar, and

553
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 2: everyone's gonna say, you know, blame Canada as the people

554
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:25,880
Speaker 2: in South Park.

555
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 3: Should we blame the governments or name society or should

556
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:41,639
Speaker 3: we blame the images on team.

557
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 2: That's kind of the situation we're probably gonna run into here. Uh.

558
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 2: The one thing I will say, Tomlin Road unders uh

559
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 2: kind of a crazy one now eighty two fifty nine

560
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 2: as coach of the Steelers, So usually some good defense

561
00:27:57,520 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 2: in those games.

562
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,640
Speaker 5: The Action Network podcast is presented by bet MGM used

563
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:04,040
Speaker 5: bonus code Action when signing up to get up to

564
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 5: fifteen hundred dollars paid back in bonus bets if your

565
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 5: first bet loses. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

566
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:21,879
Speaker 5: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

567
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 5: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

568
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:28,639
Speaker 5: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. Now it is

569
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:30,879
Speaker 5: time for the hot read from our own Brandon Anderson.

570
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:32,639
Speaker 4: Brandon, what do you have us looking for? For? Early

571
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 4: Week thirteen lines?

572
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 3: Hot rap bo.

573
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:42,000
Speaker 2: Seventay on ice rights ice cream Bosluda Radars nineteen seven

574
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 2: nineteen Hoorribille soul trade.

575
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 4: May all right.

576
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 6: Week thirteen hot read oh one and one last week.

577
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 6: Hopefully we at least got that Thanksgiving evening push with

578
00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 6: the colv on the on there. But on the season,

579
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 6: Howard's still fourteen seven and one sixty seven percent hit

580
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 6: rate two out of every three ain't bad. We're going

581
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 6: right in on Week thirteen to the big game on

582
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 6: the slate, the San Francisco forty nine ers at the

583
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 6: Philadelphia Eagles. And what a game this is. We got

584
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 6: it last year in the SCU playoffs, but we didn't

585
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 6: really get it.

586
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 4: All the quarterbacks got hurt.

587
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 6: What a game this should be here the best team

588
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 6: in the NFL and a ten and one team they're

589
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 6: facing off against each other.

590
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 4: Get out of here with these stupid Eagles.

591
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 6: The Eagles get out gained by ninety eight yards, a

592
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:34,240
Speaker 6: fourth straight win.

593
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 4: They're winning games.

594
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 6: They're getting outgained b one hundred yards, out gained by

595
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 6: against Buffalo one hundred and twenty seven yards. Their defense,

596
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:45,080
Speaker 6: Philadelphia's defense can't get off the field right now. The

597
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 6: Bills just gave it away, which is what they've been

598
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 6: doing But enough with this winning DNA and all the

599
00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 6: catchphrases you're hearing. Sometimes we just get lucky, right, We're

600
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 6: just getting lucky. The Eagles are seven to one in

601
00:29:56,800 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 6: one score games. Five of those wins are against teams

602
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 6: are five hundred or worse. So it should be more

603
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 6: important to us that the Eagles are getting into these

604
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 6: tight coin flip finishes against subpar teams or average teams

605
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 6: than it is that they're actually beating them with some luck.

606
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 6: At the end, the Niners are the better team coming

607
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 6: into the weekend.

608
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 4: Forty nine.

609
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 6: Ers are second in DVA, the Eagles. The ten and

610
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 6: one Eagles are tenth. They're tenth place out of thirty

611
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:31,000
Speaker 6: two teams in DVA. Than Niners are number one on offense,

612
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 6: number one on passing offense, and those numbers are going

613
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 6: up since Week eight once they got everyone back healthy.

614
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 6: We know they have that three game losing streak. It

615
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 6: turns out that was just because everyone was hurt, including

616
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 6: Trent Williams, big underrated part of their offensive line. Now

617
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 6: they're all back, they're rolling again. They rolled right through

618
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:54,120
Speaker 6: Seattle on the road that Thanksgiving night game. The Eagles

619
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 6: are going the opposite direction Eagles pass defense nineteenth by

620
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:01,959
Speaker 6: DVA and trending. They just aren't able to get off

621
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 6: the field right now, especially on third down on Sunday,

622
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 6: bottom half of the league DV away on defense. That

623
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 6: is not the profile of a ten to one team,

624
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 6: which is kind of what we're saying here. So in particular,

625
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 6: this matchup, this is one I've had circled since early

626
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 6: in the season.

627
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 4: We knew this was coming.

628
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 6: I think this is a matchup that leans totally in

629
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,400
Speaker 6: the niners favor because of the middle of the field.

630
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 6: The Eagles defense invests heavily on the line and at cornerback.

631
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:30,800
Speaker 6: They did not bring in linebackers. They were getting killed Sunday,

632
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 6: couldn't even get off the field against the Bills, who

633
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 6: don't even run the ball that much, and there's running

634
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 6: like three four times straight up the middle first downs

635
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 6: late in the game. Again, should have kept with and

636
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 6: won the game, but the Niners are gonna stick with

637
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 6: that sort of thing. The middle of the field is

638
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 6: where the Niners live. This is where they thrive on defense.

639
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 6: You got Fred Warner, you got Dray Greenlaw. They controlled

640
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 6: the middle of the field. That's where San Francisco is

641
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 6: elite defensively up against that run that Philly is so

642
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 6: good at in those middle pass and on the other side,

643
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 6: Eagles are dead last DVA against tight end. So I

644
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 6: think George Kittle has a big game. And that middle

645
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 6: of the field where the Niners like to operate, those

646
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 6: play actions, those throws over the middle where pretty likes

647
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 6: to throw, I think they can really eat up the

648
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 6: Eagles defense here. So this is the one that we've

649
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 6: been waiting for. We wanted it last year, we didn't

650
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:21,719
Speaker 6: really get to see it with all the injuries we're

651
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 6: getting in Now I'm grabbing it right away. Give me

652
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 6: the forty nine Ers minus one point fifteen on the

653
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 6: money line.

654
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 4: They are the better team.

655
00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 6: And we're gonna stick with two teams that are the

656
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 6: hottest teams supposedly in football on five game winning streaks.

657
00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:41,560
Speaker 6: We're gonna fade the Broncos too, and right go right

658
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 6: back to Texans Island. Give me the Texans minus two

659
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 6: and a half against the Broncos. Denver continues to have

660
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 6: insane turnover luck. The Browns had five fumbles on Sunday,

661
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 6: and of course only recovered two of them. Denver is

662
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 6: getting these easy points off of that, they've now faced

663
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:01,000
Speaker 6: a third string quarterback to two weeks in a row.

664
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 6: Those five wins that they've had, four of those are

665
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 6: in Denver, with the atmosphere there. We know how good

666
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:10,560
Speaker 6: Denver is at home. Denver is much worse on the

667
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 6: road by offense, especially, they're fringe top ten offense at home.

668
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 6: We saw them do a little bit against Cleveland, a

669
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 6: tough defense, but they're a bottom seven defense on the

670
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 6: road by DVA. Look, these teams are both six and five.

671
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:26,920
Speaker 6: They're tied with the Colts for the seven seed. So

672
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:30,600
Speaker 6: this is basically a playoff game here. What would you

673
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 6: do if this was a playoff game?

674
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 4: How would you cap it?

675
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 6: Let's just keep it simple. How about the better team

676
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 6: with the better quarterback, the better coach playing at home? Right,

677
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 6: it's not that hard minus two and a half. Basically,

678
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 6: we're saying these teams are rated about equally and giving

679
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 6: the home field advantage. I don't think these teams are

680
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 6: rated equally. For me, Denver's defense has gotten much better

681
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 6: the season has gone along. Obviously, hard to get worse

682
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:57,479
Speaker 6: after you give up seventy in a game, but the

683
00:33:57,520 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 6: past has been good at trust CG. I started to

684
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 6: find some answers in the pass rush isn't getting home.

685
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 6: When Stroud has time, he gets the job done. And

686
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:08,400
Speaker 6: the Denver run defense is so bad that even Houston,

687
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 6: I think, can run them a little bit. So Houston's

688
00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:14,480
Speaker 6: pass defense, that's their weakest spot. We saw Trevor Lawrence

689
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:17,840
Speaker 6: get to them on Sunday. I don't think Russell Wilson

690
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 6: can do that anymore. And they don't really scare anyone

691
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:22,440
Speaker 6: on that side of the ball. So minus two and

692
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 6: a half. That's below the key number. You know how

693
00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 6: that goes. You might get a minus three by the

694
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 6: time that you grab this. I still like it there.

695
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:32,319
Speaker 6: We're probably gonna get it above the key number by

696
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:35,240
Speaker 6: the end of the week. So I'm grabbing Texans Island now.

697
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:37,960
Speaker 6: I don't think these teams are even I want the

698
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 6: home team. I want the better quarterback and the better team.

699
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 6: So give me Texans minus two and a half. Week thirteen,

700
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:46,840
Speaker 6: hogh reads forty nine ers, minus one fifteen on the

701
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 6: money line at the Eagles, and right back to Texans

702
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 6: Island minus two and a half against the Broncos.

703
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 5: Thank you, Brandon. Now Van, let's talk Browns Broncos. We

704
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 5: previewed it a little bit earlier there just talk about

705
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,439
Speaker 5: the AFC North, But let's talk about this game between

706
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:05,960
Speaker 5: Browns Broncos where the Broncos do win twenty nine to twelve,

707
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:08,399
Speaker 5: and the total of thirty seven and a half, as

708
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 5: you mentioned earlier, does go over in the Broncos cover

709
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:15,240
Speaker 5: as one and a half point home favorites against arguably

710
00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:17,360
Speaker 5: the best defense in the NFL. I don't feel like

711
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 5: I'm saying anything hot take here, but the Broncos now

712
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:24,880
Speaker 5: six straight wins, Evan, They're six and five now, and

713
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 5: they've got the Texans, pretty tough matchup, and the Lions, Chargers,

714
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 5: Patriots and Chargers.

715
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:31,400
Speaker 4: It's not an easy.

716
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 5: Road to the AFC playoff picture here, But if you

717
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 5: had asked me at Week three, after that Broncos Dolphins

718
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 5: game where they gave up seventy points, do you think

719
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 5: the Broncos can win make the AFC playoffs? I would

720
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:46,319
Speaker 5: have asked you to like check yourself in rehab for

721
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:49,600
Speaker 5: like drugs or something, man, because there is no way

722
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:51,239
Speaker 5: that I would have thought the Broncos would be able

723
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:53,480
Speaker 5: to kind of get to this stage where they are

724
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:54,440
Speaker 5: in the season now.

725
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 2: Six and five, crazy to even look at the standings.

726
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 2: The thing that's the issue at the current moment, Broncos fans,

727
00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 2: Broncos betters, anyone invested in their positive future is at

728
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:10,799
Speaker 2: Houston at Chargers at Lions, three straight road games. I

729
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:13,920
Speaker 2: mean there's a real possibility it's own three. But I

730
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:18,800
Speaker 2: mean it's just yeah, it's it's a tough road ahead.

731
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 2: So I think the schedule doesn't give them any favors.

732
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:25,920
Speaker 2: I think the situation today helped them out. I think

733
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 2: Dorian Thomson Robinson didn't do them, you know, didn't make

734
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 2: it hard on their defense. So with that and I'm

735
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 2: I don't even remember their future for Dorian Thomson Robinson.

736
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:41,279
Speaker 2: I believe PJ. Walker came into the game. Be sure

737
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:42,959
Speaker 2: what the status is going to look like next week

738
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:46,799
Speaker 2: when Cleveland has to go to the Rams. But either way,

739
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 2: I think Denver got a little bit of a gift

740
00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 2: and I think they've looked great, right. I think the

741
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 2: defense which was thirty second I believe in Dvowa within

742
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:58,919
Speaker 2: the first four or five six pros defense man, it's

743
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 2: bad and now it's better. It's been better. It's not great,

744
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:05,359
Speaker 2: but I think it's better. And I think it's really

745
00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:08,880
Speaker 2: helped them, but the road gets tough. You get the

746
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 2: Texans off a loss, you're going to get the Chargers

747
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:14,879
Speaker 2: who look like they're losing right now, all desperate as ever,

748
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:18,920
Speaker 2: So through straight road games not easy. The ones that

749
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:22,879
Speaker 2: I will say not great for Denver one in ten

750
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:26,400
Speaker 2: right now against a third quarter spread eight and twenty

751
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:29,840
Speaker 2: third quarter spread last two seasons, so coming out of

752
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:32,959
Speaker 2: the locker room has been really really slow. So maybe

753
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 2: something to take advantage of on this road trip for them.

754
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 5: Well, the one thing too, and I don't want to

755
00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:40,440
Speaker 5: knock the Browns too much as far as their defense goes,

756
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:42,920
Speaker 5: because there's only so much they can do when they

757
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:45,400
Speaker 5: get virtually nothing on offense.

758
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:45,919
Speaker 4: Both PJ.

759
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 5: Walker and Dorian Thompson Robinson combined for one hundred and

760
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 5: sixty two passing yards. They were two and fourteen on

761
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:55,719
Speaker 5: third down. But even the Browns defense just attrition as this.

762
00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:59,920
Speaker 5: As the game goes, the Broncos rush at running offense.

763
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:03,279
Speaker 5: They had only scored one rushing touchdown the entire year

764
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 5: entering this game. That's their first two touchdowns of the game,

765
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 5: with a touchdown to Jivante and another touchdown to Russell Wilson. Sorry,

766
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:14,000
Speaker 5: Samajah p Run scored the opening touchdown of the game.

767
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 5: Because again Russell, this past events by the Browns is

768
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:18,880
Speaker 5: still really good. He only threw for one hundred and

769
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:21,080
Speaker 5: thirty four passing yards today, So it's not like they

770
00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:23,959
Speaker 5: were just marching down the field. There was just never

771
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:27,759
Speaker 5: a point where the Browns were in a position to

772
00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:31,360
Speaker 5: keep that defense off the field. They were just constantly

773
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:35,359
Speaker 5: playing from behind here. So the Brown's now seven and four.

774
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:40,840
Speaker 5: They've got the Rams, the Jags, Bears, Texans, and Jets,

775
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:44,560
Speaker 5: probably enough to make the playoffs at this point. But

776
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 5: if they went one in four in that stretch just

777
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 5: because of what they can do offensively, that would not

778
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:53,279
Speaker 5: shock me either, And I would not be surprised if

779
00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 5: the Browns just end up slowly backing away from the

780
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 5: playoff picture just because they can't do anything offensively.

781
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:05,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a scary proposition with their quarterback situation, assuming

782
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:08,400
Speaker 2: that Walker and dtr are the options every week, and

783
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:11,160
Speaker 2: even if you bring in a Flacco or something like that,

784
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:13,759
Speaker 2: it's not going to get that much better. So week

785
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:15,799
Speaker 2: in and week out, a lot of pressure on the

786
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:19,799
Speaker 2: defense and you have some defense, decent offenses coming up,

787
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 2: like you said, Rams Jaguars, So it's gonna put a

788
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:25,280
Speaker 2: lot of pressure on the quarterback to what are points

789
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 2: and it's just not great for them. And I'm invested

790
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:30,000
Speaker 2: in Cleveland. I'd love for them to make the playoffs,

791
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:33,880
Speaker 2: but I didn't expect h No Watson.

792
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:37,319
Speaker 5: So yeah, and I mean, really, it's just gonna it's

793
00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:39,120
Speaker 5: just a lot of thirteen to ten games that you're

794
00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 5: gonna see coming up with that team.

795
00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:44,239
Speaker 2: Record twenty twenty nine. Today, you just can't have that.

796
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:47,680
Speaker 2: Cleveland's never going to win a game close, No, not

797
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:48,279
Speaker 2: even close.

798
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 5: All right, let's move to the NFC South Saints Falcons

799
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 5: play today. Falcons win twenty four to fifteen, uh, winning

800
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 5: outright as home dogs, but they do go under the

801
00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:01,520
Speaker 5: toll of forty one and a half.

802
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:04,200
Speaker 4: Derek Carr is a favorite.

803
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:09,320
Speaker 5: This game was very frustrating, like for me because I

804
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 5: will sit there and evaluate quarterbacks. I'm betting on quarterback interceptions,

805
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:15,399
Speaker 5: I'm doing all that stuff. So obviously the interception part

806
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:17,760
Speaker 5: worked out really well, but if you're betting on offense

807
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:21,120
Speaker 5: from these two teams, it is the most frustrating thing

808
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:23,960
Speaker 5: in the world other than maybe like getting your kid

809
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:27,759
Speaker 5: dressed and ready for school because like Desmond Rider at

810
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 5: quarterback just makes me want to slam my head against

811
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:33,360
Speaker 5: the wall. Hat two interceptions today, there's horrible decision making

812
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 5: on third down Arthur Smith, and this team is using

813
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 5: a three running back committee right now. Vijon is averaging

814
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:42,439
Speaker 5: over six yards per carry in the game and they're

815
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:45,480
Speaker 5: still running it with Cordero Patterson like the corpse of

816
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:49,799
Speaker 5: Cordero Patterson still getting carries in this offense. So now

817
00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:55,000
Speaker 5: with the Falcons winning, they by default lead the NFC

818
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:58,839
Speaker 5: South at five and six, the Saints also at five

819
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 5: and six, Bucks just behind them at four and seven,

820
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:03,279
Speaker 5: and we don't need to talk about the Panthers at

821
00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:05,640
Speaker 5: one in ten. But Derek Carr and the Saints team

822
00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 5: is likely going to be favorites in a couple of

823
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:13,240
Speaker 5: games here upcoming. They've got the Lions, Panthers, Giants, Rams, Bucks, Falcons.

824
00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 5: They'll likely be favorites in four of those six games

825
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 5: because they'll be hosting the Falcons of Week eighteen at

826
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 5: home this time. But the reason why I bring that

827
00:41:23,239 --> 00:41:25,000
Speaker 5: up is I don't think you want to take the

828
00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:27,720
Speaker 5: Saints in that spot because Derek Carr is a favorite

829
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:31,440
Speaker 5: has just been awful as a spread beat eighteen thirty

830
00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:33,840
Speaker 5: seven and two against the spread. That means if you

831
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:37,160
Speaker 5: faded Derek Carr as a favorite every game in his career,

832
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 5: you would have won sixty eight percent of the time.

833
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:43,160
Speaker 5: That is the worst ATS percentage in twenty years.

834
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 4: For a quarterback.

835
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:47,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's gonna be rough. They do have three straight

836
00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 2: home games, so the Saints will be in the Dome

837
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:57,040
Speaker 2: for Lions, Panthers, Giants. Probably favorite in the Panthers and

838
00:41:57,120 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 2: Giants games, dog against the Lions. Yeah, either way. The

839
00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 2: situation in the division I think is probably the most interesting.

840
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:07,439
Speaker 2: The Falcons. You look at the standings, you're like, oh wow,

841
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:11,279
Speaker 2: they are three and zero against the NFC South. They

842
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:14,439
Speaker 2: are now tied with the Saints at the top, which

843
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:17,040
Speaker 2: is actually important because you assume New Orleans is going

844
00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:19,200
Speaker 2: to go two and one in those three games, and

845
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 2: Atlanta now travels to the Jets and then faces the Bucks,

846
00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:25,560
Speaker 2: so you know, shrug emoji, put up my shoulders. Who

847
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:28,799
Speaker 2: knows what's going to happen there. From a stats point

848
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:31,279
Speaker 2: of view, this is probably the worst of the worst,

849
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 2: so Dennis Allen, which even if you look win percentage

850
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 2: overall like since nineteen ninety. And you know, even when

851
00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 2: you go further back, he's one of the worst head

852
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:43,480
Speaker 2: coaches you could possibly have. I believe he's like twenty

853
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 2: and forty four something of that nature. But he is

854
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:50,760
Speaker 2: now five fourteen and two against the spread versus divisional opponents,

855
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:53,920
Speaker 2: with both the Raiders and the Saints. That is the

856
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:57,040
Speaker 2: worst for any head coach, not only in the last

857
00:42:57,040 --> 00:42:59,400
Speaker 2: twenty years, but in the wildcard ri since nineteen ninety

858
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:03,400
Speaker 2: worst win percentage. So Dennis Allen not coming through. And

859
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:05,879
Speaker 2: when you watch this game and you said to yourself, well,

860
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:07,200
Speaker 2: the Saints are going to give it to the Falcons,

861
00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:08,360
Speaker 2: and the Falcons are going to get back to the

862
00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 2: Saints kind of how it felt. And then all of

863
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:12,359
Speaker 2: a sudden, Arthur Smith said, well, we're going to give

864
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:14,520
Speaker 2: it to v John Robinson. And then it worked. Not

865
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:17,319
Speaker 2: only that Atlanta covered the first half for the first

866
00:43:17,360 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 2: time what feels like forever, and then they won the game.

867
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:25,759
Speaker 2: So it was a recipe for a win. And will

868
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 2: it keep going, like will it continue against a Jets

869
00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 2: defense next week? Who knows?

870
00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:33,160
Speaker 5: I don't know, man, Just the Saints team like five

871
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 5: trips to the red zone and you come away with

872
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:38,759
Speaker 5: five field goals. By the third field goal, it's like, okay,

873
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:41,160
Speaker 5: on the fourth one, We're going for it on fourth

874
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:41,680
Speaker 5: and whatever.

875
00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:42,279
Speaker 4: I don't care.

876
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 5: We just can't keep settling for field goals here. And

877
00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:48,200
Speaker 5: that was part of the thing, is like, since someone

878
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 5: need to explain to Dennis Allen that seven is more

879
00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 5: than three and this other team is scoring touchdowns on you.

880
00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:57,360
Speaker 5: And by the third quarter, it was the infirmary award

881
00:43:57,440 --> 00:43:59,560
Speaker 5: for the Saints. Like Chrystal Lave had to go to

882
00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:02,840
Speaker 5: the Blue rashichiheb left the game. Juwan Johnson's banged up.

883
00:44:02,880 --> 00:44:03,719
Speaker 4: He left the game.

884
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:07,720
Speaker 5: So you're seeing third string running backs and wide receivers

885
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:10,799
Speaker 5: out there that were on the practice squad a couple

886
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 5: weeks ago, which was kind of impressive that the Saints

887
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:15,800
Speaker 5: were still able to march down the field. But you

888
00:44:15,880 --> 00:44:19,000
Speaker 5: could see even with Derek Carr, they're forty five percent

889
00:44:19,120 --> 00:44:22,720
Speaker 5: right now in red zone conversion percentage to score a touchdown.

890
00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:24,280
Speaker 5: That's twenty third.

891
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:24,880
Speaker 4: In the NFL.

892
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:27,080
Speaker 5: So not as quite as bad as what you see

893
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:29,520
Speaker 5: from like the Giants and the Jets. But the reason

894
00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:31,840
Speaker 5: why I feel like it's just as bad is because

895
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:35,279
Speaker 5: we have expectations. We think, with all this talent on

896
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:37,719
Speaker 5: this Saints team, they should be able to convert when

897
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:40,840
Speaker 5: they get into scoring position. But you have Derek Carr quarterback,

898
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:45,160
Speaker 5: and that's what happens. All right, Chiefs Raiders. Let's move

899
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:47,399
Speaker 5: over now, because I don't want to talk about Derek

900
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:50,160
Speaker 5: Carr anymore. All right, Chiefs Raiders. Chiefs win thirty one

901
00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:53,239
Speaker 5: to seventeen total of forty three. Does go over and

902
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:56,439
Speaker 5: the chief says big favorites nine point favorites do cover

903
00:44:56,600 --> 00:45:00,560
Speaker 5: and win easily. Now, when I say easily, if you

904
00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:03,600
Speaker 5: only watched from the second quarter to the fourth quarter,

905
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:06,920
Speaker 5: of course it was easy. But the first quarter Raiders

906
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:09,040
Speaker 5: came out pretty strong, punched Chiefs in the mouth.

907
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:09,440
Speaker 4: Right off the hop.

908
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 5: They go up by fourteen. Josh Jacobs has a nice

909
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:15,640
Speaker 5: touchdown run. But then like I went to the bathroom,

910
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:17,719
Speaker 5: I come back, it's fourteen to seven. I go back

911
00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:20,000
Speaker 5: up to get a drink. It's now tied fourteen to fourteen.

912
00:45:20,080 --> 00:45:22,120
Speaker 5: It was that fast of how quickly they scored in

913
00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:24,759
Speaker 5: the second quarter. But then the Chiefs they outscored them

914
00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:27,440
Speaker 5: seventeen to three, and the second half never really had

915
00:45:27,480 --> 00:45:30,440
Speaker 5: to trail in that spot, they weren't really too worried.

916
00:45:30,800 --> 00:45:32,880
Speaker 5: In the second half, Isaiah Checko kind of took over.

917
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:35,520
Speaker 5: But an interesting trend about the Chiefs, Evan is now

918
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:39,440
Speaker 5: the Chiefs have now gone under the second half total

919
00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 5: in all eleven games this season. So if you're live

920
00:45:42,760 --> 00:45:44,840
Speaker 5: betting and you're looking at the second half, and you

921
00:45:44,920 --> 00:45:47,399
Speaker 5: were to bet their second half total and go under,

922
00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:50,279
Speaker 5: you would be profitable. Now in all eleven games this.

923
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:53,279
Speaker 2: Season, it's been absolutely nuts. Now they've did a little

924
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:55,800
Speaker 2: bit more scoring in this game. Obviously, I mean they

925
00:45:55,880 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 2: scored thirty one in the end, but even in the

926
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:02,520
Speaker 2: fourth quarter, you know they only put up ten. Wasn't explosive,

927
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:05,160
Speaker 2: But yes, you're right when you watch this game early on,

928
00:46:06,160 --> 00:46:08,080
Speaker 2: I thought Vegas was going to stay in it. There's

929
00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:12,560
Speaker 2: still something not completely right with Kansas City's offense. I

930
00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 2: think you saw it early on where you had the

931
00:46:14,280 --> 00:46:19,000
Speaker 2: Jacobs run and just things didn't you know, flow right.

932
00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:22,200
Speaker 2: I think for them on offense, they just don't have

933
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:26,480
Speaker 2: enough weapons, and I think, you know, Vegas puts some

934
00:46:26,560 --> 00:46:29,080
Speaker 2: pressure on them, but I think O'Connell wasn't good enough.

935
00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:31,960
Speaker 2: Late in the game. Mahomes did his thing. I think

936
00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:34,800
Speaker 2: the Raiders probably should have covered here some crazy stats.

937
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:39,640
Speaker 2: So Raiders zero penalties and zero turnovers. You know, when

938
00:46:39,680 --> 00:46:43,760
Speaker 2: you're plus nine a home in that situation, you probably

939
00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:46,319
Speaker 2: and fifty percent on third down you don't get the cover.

940
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:49,680
Speaker 2: Feels a little tough, but here here's one for you.

941
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:54,879
Speaker 2: So Raiders teams are fifteen and two straight up when

942
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:58,920
Speaker 2: no penalties and no turnovers and not the Raiders today.

943
00:46:59,040 --> 00:46:59,800
Speaker 2: So tough spot.

944
00:47:00,160 --> 00:47:03,640
Speaker 5: The Chiefs now eight and three in the standings, tied

945
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:05,879
Speaker 5: with the Jaguars at eight and three, but obviously would

946
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:08,680
Speaker 5: have the tiebreaker based on their win earlier in the season.

947
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:12,439
Speaker 5: But upcoming schedule now they've got the Packers and then

948
00:47:12,600 --> 00:47:15,799
Speaker 5: they host the Bills, play the Patriots, and then end

949
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:18,520
Speaker 5: the season with Raiders, Bengals and Chargers.

950
00:47:18,960 --> 00:47:19,480
Speaker 1: Not really a.

951
00:47:19,520 --> 00:47:21,680
Speaker 5: Difficult schedule for the Chiefs, But again, with some of

952
00:47:21,760 --> 00:47:25,120
Speaker 5: those issues that you were talking about and how offensively

953
00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:28,719
Speaker 5: how they can stall, don't want to just pretend like, oh,

954
00:47:28,840 --> 00:47:31,600
Speaker 5: that's an easy six to zero, because that's one of

955
00:47:31,640 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 5: the things I feel like with this team. They might

956
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 5: drop one to maybe the Bills or you know, maybe

957
00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 5: the Chargers in Week eighteen because they already have.

958
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:41,279
Speaker 4: The one seed locked up like that kind of thing.

959
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:44,000
Speaker 5: So I just would be a little cautious of whether

960
00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:45,719
Speaker 5: or not I would feel great about if I had

961
00:47:45,840 --> 00:47:48,880
Speaker 5: chiefs for number one seed in the AFC right now.

962
00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:52,239
Speaker 5: So just leaving that there, and then the Raiders they're

963
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:54,799
Speaker 5: five and seven. Now, I'm not going to cross them

964
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:58,560
Speaker 5: off because anything can happen, but looking at their upcoming schedule,

965
00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:03,080
Speaker 5: it's not good. So offensively, they still are not clicking

966
00:48:03,160 --> 00:48:06,160
Speaker 5: with DeVante Adams and An O'Connell yet, so I think

967
00:48:06,200 --> 00:48:08,800
Speaker 5: at this stage, let's call them a write off, not

968
00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:10,719
Speaker 5: just a cross off. We'll just write them off, but

969
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:11,879
Speaker 5: we're not going to cross them off.

970
00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:12,359
Speaker 4: The list yet.

971
00:48:12,480 --> 00:48:16,600
Speaker 2: Casey's in green Bay next week, that is Sunday Night Football.

972
00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:19,400
Speaker 2: That's seven is disappearing. I kind of like that for

973
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:22,839
Speaker 2: green Bay. So obviously you know late podcast right now

974
00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:25,359
Speaker 2: depending on the timing, but I really do think That's

975
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:27,440
Speaker 2: seven's disappearing. So we'll see if you get it.

976
00:48:27,800 --> 00:48:31,080
Speaker 5: Oh hot read by Evan Watch out, Brandon, it's gonna

977
00:48:31,080 --> 00:48:34,640
Speaker 5: take your job, all right, Bucks Colts. Colts win twenty

978
00:48:34,680 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 5: seven to twenty. Total does go over a forty five,

979
00:48:38,080 --> 00:48:40,720
Speaker 5: and the Colts do cover as three point home favorites

980
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:43,320
Speaker 5: Colts now six to five, They've won three straight games,

981
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:50,840
Speaker 5: and their upcoming schedule, they've got the Titans, the Bengals, Steelers, Falcons, Raiders, Texans.

982
00:48:50,880 --> 00:48:54,800
Speaker 5: When you look at this upcoming slate, Evan Sure and

983
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:57,399
Speaker 5: you only see, really, the Texans is maybe the most

984
00:48:57,520 --> 00:48:59,640
Speaker 5: formidable team that they would have to face the rest

985
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:02,279
Speaker 5: of the way. Am I taking crazy pills and thinking

986
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:04,399
Speaker 5: that the Colts are a low key sleeper to make

987
00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:07,920
Speaker 5: the playoffs in the AFC? Because entering this week they

988
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:10,800
Speaker 5: were plus odds to make the playoffs at most sports books,

989
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:13,520
Speaker 5: But if the playoffs started today, they'd be the seventh

990
00:49:13,560 --> 00:49:14,360
Speaker 5: seed in the AFC.

991
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:17,360
Speaker 2: I just here's my thing. I have a blind spot,

992
00:49:17,600 --> 00:49:20,200
Speaker 2: and I know I do. But it's okay because I

993
00:49:20,239 --> 00:49:23,000
Speaker 2: could admit it. I just don't have faith in Gardner Minshew.

994
00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:24,000
Speaker 4: No, that's fine.

995
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:27,040
Speaker 2: I just and the thing that's funny is is I

996
00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 2: even remember earlier in this season I loved Anthony Richardson.

997
00:49:30,120 --> 00:49:31,960
Speaker 2: I thought what he brought to the table was dynamic.

998
00:49:32,800 --> 00:49:35,800
Speaker 2: I thought he made the Colts a better team with

999
00:49:36,000 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 2: him and versus Minshew. And I still believe that to

1000
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:42,200
Speaker 2: this day. But obviously I'm wrong on some level because

1001
00:49:42,239 --> 00:49:46,200
Speaker 2: the Colts are six and five, and I would probably

1002
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:48,719
Speaker 2: guess they would probably lose some of these games with

1003
00:49:48,920 --> 00:49:54,279
Speaker 2: Richardson versus Minshew's experience, I guess, so clearly have a

1004
00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:58,040
Speaker 2: blind spot. So going forward, something needs to be adjusted

1005
00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:02,120
Speaker 2: in my process here. Now they're at Tennessee and at

1006
00:50:02,239 --> 00:50:06,000
Speaker 2: Cincinnati the next two weeks. Oh lucky, then not facing

1007
00:50:06,080 --> 00:50:10,480
Speaker 2: Tannehill and not facing Burrow. But I'm not sure. I

1008
00:50:10,600 --> 00:50:14,560
Speaker 2: don't think I'm going to be able to change my

1009
00:50:14,760 --> 00:50:21,040
Speaker 2: process too much in how I think Minshew is turnover prone.

1010
00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:23,960
Speaker 2: And but that's the thing that I have to really

1011
00:50:24,120 --> 00:50:28,000
Speaker 2: start believing is Indy puts up points. Right, They're seven

1012
00:50:28,040 --> 00:50:29,520
Speaker 2: and four to the over, tied for the best in

1013
00:50:29,520 --> 00:50:33,359
Speaker 2: the NFL. They're nine and two team total over. They

1014
00:50:33,480 --> 00:50:35,799
Speaker 2: had that streak of twenty and you know, I believe, yeah,

1015
00:50:35,840 --> 00:50:38,840
Speaker 2: twenty plus points in all those games. So Indy scores

1016
00:50:39,200 --> 00:50:41,600
Speaker 2: no matter who's a quarterback, no matter what's going on,

1017
00:50:42,080 --> 00:50:44,239
Speaker 2: they figure out a way to put points on the board.

1018
00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:46,480
Speaker 4: And the run game is coming back. Like that's the

1019
00:50:46,520 --> 00:50:46,839
Speaker 4: thing too.

1020
00:50:46,880 --> 00:50:49,560
Speaker 5: With Jonathan Taylor is healthy, you can kind of hide

1021
00:50:49,640 --> 00:50:53,440
Speaker 5: maybe some of those issues with Gardner Minshew. I mean

1022
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:56,000
Speaker 5: Minshew has four rushing touchdowns himself this year. He ran

1023
00:50:56,080 --> 00:50:58,640
Speaker 5: for one today as well. But what was funny is

1024
00:50:58,640 --> 00:51:00,440
Speaker 5: when I wrote this down, because I wrote this at

1025
00:51:00,480 --> 00:51:03,360
Speaker 5: halftime when they were up, you know, like two scores

1026
00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:06,640
Speaker 5: on the Bucks, and then Gardner Mitshew immediately throws an interception,

1027
00:51:06,719 --> 00:51:08,279
Speaker 5: I'm like, yeah, scrap that. I don't know if I

1028
00:51:08,360 --> 00:51:11,480
Speaker 5: want to talk like, I don't know, but their defense

1029
00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:13,879
Speaker 5: has actually played really wells is, like, over the last

1030
00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:16,080
Speaker 5: three games, they've only given up thirty nine points, and

1031
00:51:16,160 --> 00:51:18,040
Speaker 5: that was a real source spot for them, especially in

1032
00:51:18,120 --> 00:51:21,000
Speaker 5: the secondary that they were just giving hemorrhaging.

1033
00:51:20,600 --> 00:51:22,279
Speaker 4: Points via the pass right.

1034
00:51:22,400 --> 00:51:24,160
Speaker 2: So definitely we'll see where this goes.

1035
00:51:24,239 --> 00:51:27,359
Speaker 5: But again, the Colts little frisky, especially if they're able

1036
00:51:27,400 --> 00:51:29,080
Speaker 5: to lean on Jonathan Taylor. They're not going to have

1037
00:51:29,120 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 5: any home games or anything in the playoffs. But I

1038
00:51:31,239 --> 00:51:32,960
Speaker 5: feel like with a run game like that, and if

1039
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 5: their defense shows up, they could at least give a

1040
00:51:35,640 --> 00:51:36,760
Speaker 5: team a give a team.

1041
00:51:36,600 --> 00:51:39,280
Speaker 4: A go in the opening round of the playoffs.

1042
00:51:39,360 --> 00:51:42,160
Speaker 5: So all right, let's run through these final three games.

1043
00:51:42,200 --> 00:51:44,839
Speaker 5: They were all pretty much blowouts. Rams Cardinals. Rams win

1044
00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:48,760
Speaker 5: thirty seven to fourteen total goes over. Rams win easily

1045
00:51:48,800 --> 00:51:52,000
Speaker 5: as two and a half point home favorites, and nothing

1046
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:54,200
Speaker 5: really shocking out of this one. I mean, when Stafford

1047
00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:56,800
Speaker 5: has time, he looks like the best quarterback in the NFL,

1048
00:51:56,840 --> 00:51:59,160
Speaker 5: and when he doesn't, like I said last week, he

1049
00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:00,560
Speaker 5: looks like the old man and who fell.

1050
00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:02,440
Speaker 4: On the sidewalk. Like that's really what happens.

1051
00:52:02,920 --> 00:52:06,439
Speaker 5: Four passing touchdowns. Kyler Murray did rush for another touchdown today,

1052
00:52:06,480 --> 00:52:09,799
Speaker 5: two three straight weeks of hitting a touchdown. Bet over

1053
00:52:09,880 --> 00:52:11,759
Speaker 5: plus two hundred, So keep an eye out for that

1054
00:52:11,880 --> 00:52:15,840
Speaker 5: with Kyler Murray all right. Panthers Titans. Titans wins seventeen

1055
00:52:15,960 --> 00:52:18,840
Speaker 5: to ten. The total goes under of thirty six. Titans

1056
00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:20,840
Speaker 5: do cover as three and a half point home favorites.

1057
00:52:20,880 --> 00:52:24,279
Speaker 5: Panthers now one in ten straight up this year, and they,

1058
00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:28,160
Speaker 5: along with Frank Reich, depending on your POV, continue to

1059
00:52:28,280 --> 00:52:30,960
Speaker 5: either be a cash cow by fading them or you

1060
00:52:31,080 --> 00:52:34,000
Speaker 5: are hemorrhaging money by the week if you bet on them,

1061
00:52:34,040 --> 00:52:36,960
Speaker 5: because dating back to last season, Frank Braich coach teams

1062
00:52:37,480 --> 00:52:39,920
Speaker 5: are two to ten and one against the spread. That's

1063
00:52:40,000 --> 00:52:42,080
Speaker 5: over their last thirteen games that he has coached. And

1064
00:52:42,160 --> 00:52:45,520
Speaker 5: now the Panthers entered today as oz On favorites to

1065
00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:48,719
Speaker 5: have the worst record in the NFL. That market has

1066
00:52:48,840 --> 00:52:52,160
Speaker 5: yet to reopen, but I can't imagine what their upcoming schedule.

1067
00:52:52,680 --> 00:52:55,239
Speaker 5: The Panthers will win, maybe more than one game, so

1068
00:52:55,960 --> 00:52:58,799
Speaker 5: we're probably looking at a two and fifteen Panthers team

1069
00:52:58,880 --> 00:53:02,320
Speaker 5: that will then yield that first overall pick to the Bears,

1070
00:53:02,840 --> 00:53:06,480
Speaker 5: depending on how the rest of this Patriots season goes.

1071
00:53:06,560 --> 00:53:10,640
Speaker 5: Patriots Giants Giants win ten to seven. Evan is a

1072
00:53:11,040 --> 00:53:13,120
Speaker 5: low key Giants fan, maybe not as prominent as he

1073
00:53:13,239 --> 00:53:14,560
Speaker 5: used to be back in the day, but I'm sure

1074
00:53:14,600 --> 00:53:17,120
Speaker 5: he was fist pumping the entire time watching the Giants

1075
00:53:17,160 --> 00:53:20,040
Speaker 5: get another win over the New England Patriots, because the

1076
00:53:20,080 --> 00:53:22,719
Speaker 5: Patriots were actually road favorites four and a half point

1077
00:53:22,800 --> 00:53:25,000
Speaker 5: road favorites, and the under of thirty five and a

1078
00:53:25,040 --> 00:53:29,000
Speaker 5: half does hit very comfortably. Now, Evan, you were on

1079
00:53:29,080 --> 00:53:31,080
Speaker 5: this from the start of the season. The Pats fall

1080
00:53:31,200 --> 00:53:34,239
Speaker 5: to two and nine in the standings, the Cardinals are

1081
00:53:34,239 --> 00:53:36,520
Speaker 5: two and ten, and the Panthers are one in ten,

1082
00:53:36,640 --> 00:53:39,160
Speaker 5: So that's the three way race right now for the

1083
00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:42,600
Speaker 5: first overall pick. But I said this to my buddies

1084
00:53:42,920 --> 00:53:45,360
Speaker 5: watching this game, and I thought that this was actually

1085
00:53:45,880 --> 00:53:50,080
Speaker 5: a masterstroke by Bill Belichick, because this is somebody who

1086
00:53:50,360 --> 00:53:53,680
Speaker 5: knows the history of the game, knows what's a good quarterback,

1087
00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:57,320
Speaker 5: what's a bad quarterback. He knows how bad Mac Jones is.

1088
00:53:57,400 --> 00:54:00,279
Speaker 5: There's no way that he doesn't know what Mac Jones

1089
00:54:00,320 --> 00:54:03,520
Speaker 5: Cannon can't do. He's seen the film, and he puts

1090
00:54:03,640 --> 00:54:06,359
Speaker 5: Mac out there. All week, we didn't know who's gonna

1091
00:54:06,360 --> 00:54:08,200
Speaker 5: be the starting quarterback, but it was gonna be him, Zappy.

1092
00:54:08,239 --> 00:54:11,080
Speaker 4: He put Mac out there knowing it's gonna go bad,

1093
00:54:11,560 --> 00:54:13,040
Speaker 4: and then when it.

1094
00:54:13,080 --> 00:54:16,919
Speaker 5: Blows up in everybody's faces, he's got plausible deniability to say, look,

1095
00:54:17,200 --> 00:54:20,279
Speaker 5: I put Mac out there, didn't work out, but then

1096
00:54:20,400 --> 00:54:25,640
Speaker 5: also simultaneously enabling the tank by switching quarterbacks at halftime,

1097
00:54:25,719 --> 00:54:26,640
Speaker 5: switching quarterbacks for.

1098
00:54:26,719 --> 00:54:27,600
Speaker 4: The game winning drive.

1099
00:54:28,440 --> 00:54:31,239
Speaker 5: For me, dude, this is to me, this is the

1100
00:54:31,320 --> 00:54:34,400
Speaker 5: low key tank of tanks. And honestly, I'm kind of

1101
00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:36,400
Speaker 5: impressed by the Patriots for doing that. I didn't think

1102
00:54:36,440 --> 00:54:38,719
Speaker 5: I'd get any worse. Uh, they missed the field goal

1103
00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:41,040
Speaker 5: to tie it up, but yeah, this is just h

1104
00:54:41,120 --> 00:54:43,360
Speaker 5: This is chess. This isn't checkers, man, This is what

1105
00:54:43,440 --> 00:54:45,600
Speaker 5: they're doing right now, and it's a tank job. That's

1106
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:46,600
Speaker 5: low key stealth.

1107
00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:49,839
Speaker 2: I mean, they have no other options. What else they

1108
00:54:49,960 --> 00:54:51,439
Speaker 2: would you like them to do? I mean they woke

1109
00:54:51,520 --> 00:54:54,480
Speaker 2: up this morning and cut Will Greer and then they

1110
00:54:54,520 --> 00:54:56,239
Speaker 2: said to themselves, are we're gonna play Mac and they're

1111
00:54:56,280 --> 00:54:58,600
Speaker 2: gonna play Bailey and they're gonna go It's just they've

1112
00:54:58,600 --> 00:55:02,320
Speaker 2: got no other options. So Bill's just playing the Listen

1113
00:55:02,719 --> 00:55:04,799
Speaker 2: he called in that field goal. I'm going to say

1114
00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:07,000
Speaker 2: it right now. There was no way. I mean, there's

1115
00:55:07,040 --> 00:55:10,640
Speaker 2: no interest at all in winning that game today and

1116
00:55:10,760 --> 00:55:15,000
Speaker 2: making anybody look good on any level. There's just there,

1117
00:55:15,080 --> 00:55:17,400
Speaker 2: there's no interest in it. There's no there's no reason

1118
00:55:17,520 --> 00:55:22,359
Speaker 2: for any of it. To keep losing. Lose away has

1119
00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:22,960
Speaker 2: to be what they.

1120
00:55:22,960 --> 00:55:23,239
Speaker 1: Want to do.

1121
00:55:23,320 --> 00:55:24,960
Speaker 5: It has to be what they have to do, especially

1122
00:55:24,960 --> 00:55:27,439
Speaker 5: because the Giants they were vibably buying for that number

1123
00:55:27,480 --> 00:55:29,600
Speaker 5: one spot too, So whoever lost that game was likely

1124
00:55:29,680 --> 00:55:31,880
Speaker 5: going to be a top three position no matter what.

1125
00:55:32,120 --> 00:55:33,880
Speaker 5: So they had to lose this game that they were

1126
00:55:33,920 --> 00:55:35,640
Speaker 5: going to try to go for the top overall spot.

1127
00:55:35,960 --> 00:55:37,560
Speaker 2: But even if you look at it, the emotion of

1128
00:55:37,640 --> 00:55:40,000
Speaker 2: the day felt so different right the New England sideline.

1129
00:55:40,000 --> 00:55:42,160
Speaker 2: Even if they had won that game, just felt like

1130
00:55:42,239 --> 00:55:47,120
Speaker 2: the Giants had emotion. They felt like they wanted to

1131
00:55:47,239 --> 00:55:50,480
Speaker 2: win on the New York sideline, like, you know, barring

1132
00:55:50,520 --> 00:55:52,160
Speaker 2: all the other stuff that you know, you probably didn't

1133
00:55:52,160 --> 00:55:54,400
Speaker 2: want to win for a lot of different reasons, you know,

1134
00:55:54,719 --> 00:55:57,560
Speaker 2: de Vito everybody was, you know, ecstatic at the situation.

1135
00:55:57,800 --> 00:56:00,000
Speaker 2: There's something off in New England.

1136
00:56:00,840 --> 00:56:03,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, so it should be interesting to see kind of

1137
00:56:03,200 --> 00:56:05,160
Speaker 5: how the rest of this year goes. I'm not even

1138
00:56:05,160 --> 00:56:06,879
Speaker 5: gonna ask you the question of, oh, do you think

1139
00:56:06,920 --> 00:56:09,360
Speaker 5: Mac Jones is gonna start next week, because I'll say it,

1140
00:56:09,840 --> 00:56:11,800
Speaker 5: I actually think that's what Bill Belichick.

1141
00:56:11,520 --> 00:56:12,400
Speaker 4: Is gonna do the rest of the year.

1142
00:56:12,400 --> 00:56:14,120
Speaker 5: And he's gonna say, you're gonna take your medicine and

1143
00:56:14,120 --> 00:56:15,719
Speaker 5: you're gonna eat shit, and you're gonna eat it in

1144
00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:18,040
Speaker 5: front of everybody. Because he had two picks and a

1145
00:56:18,080 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 5: fumble in the first half. It was one of the

1146
00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:23,439
Speaker 5: worst quarterback performances I've seen this season. And I rail

1147
00:56:23,480 --> 00:56:26,280
Speaker 5: on Desmond Ritter and Zach Wilson every week on this podcast.

1148
00:56:26,360 --> 00:56:28,919
Speaker 5: So can you imagine how bad Mac Jones looked today?

1149
00:56:29,200 --> 00:56:31,920
Speaker 2: The only bad thing for Mac next week if he starts,

1150
00:56:31,960 --> 00:56:34,080
Speaker 2: is that they play the Chargers. You know it's gonna

1151
00:56:34,080 --> 00:56:36,040
Speaker 2: be a one score game, a.

1152
00:56:36,080 --> 00:56:38,160
Speaker 5: One score game, and a game where he'll actually look

1153
00:56:38,239 --> 00:56:42,080
Speaker 5: good passing because that Charger secondary makes every quarterback look

1154
00:56:42,160 --> 00:56:43,920
Speaker 5: like a pro bowler. So maybe this is the bounce

1155
00:56:44,000 --> 00:56:47,520
Speaker 5: back week that everybody's been banking on with Mac Jones.

1156
00:56:48,000 --> 00:56:50,200
Speaker 5: All right, So that's the full Sunday Slate. Let's check

1157
00:56:50,280 --> 00:56:52,600
Speaker 5: in with Patrick Everson from Vegas Insider to see how

1158
00:56:52,640 --> 00:56:55,360
Speaker 5: sportsbook fared in Las Vegas for week twelve.

1159
00:56:55,600 --> 00:56:56,400
Speaker 4: Patrick, thanks a.

1160
00:56:56,400 --> 00:56:58,960
Speaker 1: Lot, Jill, appreciate you having me on the Action Network

1161
00:56:59,080 --> 00:57:05,680
Speaker 1: podcast again. And this was a good NFL Sunday for betters,

1162
00:57:06,160 --> 00:57:09,200
Speaker 1: as bad as Thursday was for the betters. Once the

1163
00:57:09,320 --> 00:57:11,560
Speaker 1: Lions lost that game, it was going to be an

1164
00:57:11,800 --> 00:57:14,080
Speaker 1: uphill battle for betters the rest of the way on

1165
00:57:14,239 --> 00:57:17,760
Speaker 1: Thursday on Thanksgiving because everybody had the Lions, the betters

1166
00:57:17,760 --> 00:57:19,520
Speaker 1: were scrambling from there. It was a great Thursday for

1167
00:57:19,560 --> 00:57:22,680
Speaker 1: the books, but today was not so good and it

1168
00:57:22,760 --> 00:57:25,560
Speaker 1: started slow the early kicks, the early window.

1169
00:57:25,960 --> 00:57:27,000
Speaker 4: It was kind of a toss up.

1170
00:57:27,000 --> 00:57:29,000
Speaker 1: I talked to two different odds makers here in Las

1171
00:57:29,120 --> 00:57:32,480
Speaker 1: Vegas on this Sunday evening. One odds maker said the

1172
00:57:32,520 --> 00:57:35,520
Speaker 1: early games, mixed bag sharps were on Indy, so we

1173
00:57:35,680 --> 00:57:38,200
Speaker 1: lost that, but sharps were also on Carolina and we

1174
00:57:38,320 --> 00:57:40,720
Speaker 1: won that. And he said it was just really an

1175
00:57:40,800 --> 00:57:44,160
Speaker 1: uninspiring early slate, and that meant a lack of regular

1176
00:57:44,240 --> 00:57:47,880
Speaker 1: public interest. The late slate had the Chiefs in it

1177
00:57:48,400 --> 00:57:51,040
Speaker 1: and had the Eagles in it, and the betters were

1178
00:57:51,080 --> 00:57:53,000
Speaker 1: on the Chiefs and the Eagles, and they were on

1179
00:57:53,160 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 1: the Ravens on Sunday night. And even though it was

1180
00:57:55,360 --> 00:57:57,160
Speaker 1: a little back and forth, another odds maker said, we

1181
00:57:57,240 --> 00:58:00,160
Speaker 1: eked out a small win in those early games. The

1182
00:58:00,200 --> 00:58:02,440
Speaker 1: six sides we needed, they went three and three. The

1183
00:58:02,520 --> 00:58:03,800
Speaker 1: four totals they needed, they.

1184
00:58:03,720 --> 00:58:04,440
Speaker 4: Went two and two.

1185
00:58:05,120 --> 00:58:07,880
Speaker 1: So now it's all going to these later games, and

1186
00:58:07,960 --> 00:58:11,040
Speaker 1: you've got very popular teams, very public teams, and the

1187
00:58:11,120 --> 00:58:13,000
Speaker 1: Chiefs and the Eagles, and then of course on Sunday

1188
00:58:13,040 --> 00:58:16,280
Speaker 1: night the Ravens. All three of those teams won and covered.

1189
00:58:16,360 --> 00:58:18,200
Speaker 1: I think the eagles closing number was two and a half,

1190
00:58:18,320 --> 00:58:21,040
Speaker 1: so they just did get there. And all three were

1191
00:58:21,080 --> 00:58:23,320
Speaker 1: certainly in the money line parlays and so forth. So

1192
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:26,640
Speaker 1: it went downhill quickly for the odds makers and went

1193
00:58:26,840 --> 00:58:30,640
Speaker 1: very good, very positive for the betters. One ons maker

1194
00:58:30,720 --> 00:58:33,600
Speaker 1: said after the late window of kicks heading into the

1195
00:58:33,640 --> 00:58:37,760
Speaker 1: Sunday night game, he said, Bill's Eagles game not good,

1196
00:58:38,200 --> 00:58:41,840
Speaker 1: Kansas City really not good, and perhaps surprising, he said,

1197
00:58:42,280 --> 00:58:45,040
Speaker 1: Rams probably the worst of all the rams running over

1198
00:58:45,560 --> 00:58:47,800
Speaker 1: the Cardinals. There was apparently a lot of interest in

1199
00:58:47,840 --> 00:58:50,920
Speaker 1: the rams today, at least out here in Las Vegas,

1200
00:58:51,280 --> 00:58:53,680
Speaker 1: and he turned it a bloodbath. He said, it was

1201
00:58:54,080 --> 00:58:57,280
Speaker 1: just a very bad late slate of games, and then

1202
00:58:57,360 --> 00:59:00,600
Speaker 1: it got worse with the Ravens winning. And the way

1203
00:59:00,640 --> 00:59:03,080
Speaker 1: he put it after that was he said, that is

1204
00:59:03,120 --> 00:59:07,240
Speaker 1: as bad a Sunday as you can have. So it

1205
00:59:07,360 --> 00:59:09,800
Speaker 1: was definitely bad behind the counter and great on this

1206
00:59:09,840 --> 00:59:12,920
Speaker 1: side of the counter of the public. Betters definitely had

1207
00:59:12,960 --> 00:59:15,760
Speaker 1: a good day with a very strong finishing kick. Oh

1208
00:59:15,840 --> 00:59:19,120
Speaker 1: I should add from betem GM specifically here Scott Sheldon

1209
00:59:19,160 --> 00:59:23,320
Speaker 1: that BETAMGM Nevada said of today, he was very succint.

1210
00:59:24,160 --> 00:59:25,400
Speaker 4: We got crushed.

1211
00:59:26,040 --> 00:59:29,280
Speaker 1: In looking at actually some of betam Gym's numbers on

1212
00:59:29,400 --> 00:59:33,160
Speaker 1: today's games, you can kind of tell why the most

1213
00:59:33,400 --> 00:59:37,200
Speaker 1: bet teams by spread ticket count Eagles, Raven Steelers all

1214
00:59:37,240 --> 00:59:39,600
Speaker 1: three win and cover, and then the most bet teams

1215
00:59:39,640 --> 00:59:44,240
Speaker 1: by money Eagles Jaguars. Steelers Eagles Jaguars both get there

1216
00:59:44,280 --> 00:59:47,120
Speaker 1: on the spread. So between that and the way these

1217
00:59:47,120 --> 00:59:49,520
Speaker 1: teams were Keaton parlays and so forth money line parlays,

1218
00:59:49,560 --> 00:59:51,800
Speaker 1: it was definitely ended up being a good day for

1219
00:59:52,120 --> 00:59:56,520
Speaker 1: the betting public. Now looking to the Monday night game,

1220
00:59:56,560 --> 01:00:00,280
Speaker 1: which isn't really an exhilarating matchup with the Bear and

1221
01:00:00,400 --> 01:00:04,080
Speaker 1: the Vikings. On Sunday at BETMGM, it was two way

1222
01:00:04,200 --> 01:00:07,080
Speaker 1: action on the spread, fifty seven percent of bets on

1223
01:00:07,120 --> 01:00:10,520
Speaker 1: the Vikings, fifty eight percent of money on the Bears,

1224
01:00:10,600 --> 01:00:13,680
Speaker 1: which I thought was kind of interesting, Bears getting more

1225
01:00:13,720 --> 01:00:16,480
Speaker 1: money on the road as an underdog and the Bears

1226
01:00:16,680 --> 01:00:20,240
Speaker 1: not necessarily being seen as being that good. And if

1227
01:00:20,280 --> 01:00:22,960
Speaker 1: you go over to the money line, similar situation, fifty

1228
01:00:23,000 --> 01:00:26,440
Speaker 1: eight percent of tickets on Minnesota, fifty five percent of

1229
01:00:26,560 --> 01:00:29,400
Speaker 1: money on the Bears. And if you look at the

1230
01:00:29,440 --> 01:00:31,360
Speaker 1: total for that game in case you're curious about that

1231
01:00:32,280 --> 01:00:35,080
Speaker 1: two way ticketccount almost dead even Ticke account, but seventy

1232
01:00:35,120 --> 01:00:37,400
Speaker 1: eight percent of money on the under and that total's

1233
01:00:37,440 --> 01:00:39,280
Speaker 1: come down it looks like it's come down a couple

1234
01:00:39,320 --> 01:00:44,840
Speaker 1: of points. Now looking toward next week, Week thirteen got

1235
01:00:44,880 --> 01:00:48,080
Speaker 1: a handful of pretty good games on the docket. The

1236
01:00:48,240 --> 01:00:51,720
Speaker 1: biggest and best one among them, no doubt, rematch the

1237
01:00:51,840 --> 01:00:54,760
Speaker 1: NFC Championship game, and it's in the same city. The

1238
01:00:54,960 --> 01:00:58,200
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles get to host the San Francisco forty nine

1239
01:00:58,280 --> 01:01:01,000
Speaker 1: Ers again. Now I thought this was kind of interesting.

1240
01:01:01,000 --> 01:01:02,760
Speaker 1: I talked about an odds maker on Sunday night here

1241
01:01:02,840 --> 01:01:05,600
Speaker 1: in Las Vegas, and he said, we went back and

1242
01:01:05,720 --> 01:01:08,720
Speaker 1: forth on this line, eventually settling on pick them so

1243
01:01:08,880 --> 01:01:11,240
Speaker 1: open this game, pick them didn't even make Philly a

1244
01:01:11,360 --> 01:01:15,960
Speaker 1: favorite after the Eagles exhilarating overtime win against the Buffalo Bills,

1245
01:01:16,440 --> 01:01:19,560
Speaker 1: and then what happened after that kind of surprised me

1246
01:01:19,600 --> 01:01:22,160
Speaker 1: a little bit too. San fran goes to minus one

1247
01:01:22,200 --> 01:01:24,160
Speaker 1: and minus one and a half right out of the

1248
01:01:24,200 --> 01:01:26,680
Speaker 1: gate on Sunday night here in Vegas for this particular

1249
01:01:26,720 --> 01:01:29,800
Speaker 1: odds maker, and what the oddsmaker said was, the Eagles

1250
01:01:29,800 --> 01:01:32,000
Speaker 1: are in the middle of such a difficult stretch and

1251
01:01:32,120 --> 01:01:35,360
Speaker 1: the power rating for San Fran is out of this world,

1252
01:01:35,440 --> 01:01:38,160
Speaker 1: which I think was a pretty interesting comment. He said,

1253
01:01:38,200 --> 01:01:40,560
Speaker 1: we expected plenty of two way action, and this game

1254
01:01:40,600 --> 01:01:42,760
Speaker 1: figures to be among the highest handle games of the

1255
01:01:43,000 --> 01:01:46,800
Speaker 1: entire season. That should be a tremendous game. The Thursday

1256
01:01:46,880 --> 01:01:50,160
Speaker 1: night game could be good. We'll see if the Seattle

1257
01:01:50,200 --> 01:01:53,280
Speaker 1: Seahawks decide they want to get back on track here.

1258
01:01:53,760 --> 01:01:57,080
Speaker 1: But the odds maker that I spoke with here in Vegas,

1259
01:01:57,560 --> 01:02:01,120
Speaker 1: he opened Dallas minus seven minus one, which was a

1260
01:02:01,200 --> 01:02:03,600
Speaker 1: slight adjustment from just the minus seven flat of the

1261
01:02:03,640 --> 01:02:06,720
Speaker 1: look aheadline last week. But they went to seven and

1262
01:02:06,720 --> 01:02:08,960
Speaker 1: a half right away pretty much on this on this

1263
01:02:09,040 --> 01:02:11,919
Speaker 1: Sunday night, I think it came pretty quickly to seven

1264
01:02:11,920 --> 01:02:15,760
Speaker 1: and a half, literally within ninety seconds. And what the

1265
01:02:15,800 --> 01:02:17,600
Speaker 1: oddsmaker said is we didn't want to go too high

1266
01:02:17,640 --> 01:02:19,640
Speaker 1: because this could be a potential bounce back spot for

1267
01:02:19,760 --> 01:02:22,360
Speaker 1: Seattle to compete for a lot longer than it did

1268
01:02:22,560 --> 01:02:25,200
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving against San Francisco. But he said, as is

1269
01:02:25,240 --> 01:02:27,840
Speaker 1: often the case, we'll be rooting against the Cowboys. I'm

1270
01:02:27,920 --> 01:02:31,320
Speaker 1: sure the public will be all over them. And then

1271
01:02:31,400 --> 01:02:33,280
Speaker 1: the Detroit Lions. I alluded to them at the top

1272
01:02:33,440 --> 01:02:36,200
Speaker 1: with their loss on Thanksgiving Day, which obviously set the

1273
01:02:36,280 --> 01:02:38,200
Speaker 1: table for the books to have a really good Thanksgiving

1274
01:02:38,240 --> 01:02:39,720
Speaker 1: and for the better is to get kind of beat up,

1275
01:02:40,080 --> 01:02:43,200
Speaker 1: especially everybody playing those favorite money line parlays on Thanksgiving

1276
01:02:43,840 --> 01:02:46,360
Speaker 1: and this game was minus three on the look ahead

1277
01:02:46,360 --> 01:02:48,800
Speaker 1: Detroit minus three, so really they weren't really favorite Detroit

1278
01:02:48,880 --> 01:02:51,760
Speaker 1: by very much considered how good it season Detroit's had overall.

1279
01:02:52,480 --> 01:02:55,120
Speaker 1: They did reopen this on Sunday night at minus three

1280
01:02:55,120 --> 01:02:58,280
Speaker 1: and a half Detroit because New Orleans is pretty banged up.

1281
01:02:58,640 --> 01:03:00,680
Speaker 1: The oddsmaker said New Orleans looks like it's about out

1282
01:03:00,720 --> 01:03:03,280
Speaker 1: of players, and he said the Saints look bad today

1283
01:03:03,280 --> 01:03:05,840
Speaker 1: against Atlanta. He said it will be interesting to see

1284
01:03:05,880 --> 01:03:08,280
Speaker 1: how the public reacts to Detroit after it looks so

1285
01:03:08,440 --> 01:03:12,600
Speaker 1: bad on Thanksgiving. And again they've got allions a minus

1286
01:03:12,640 --> 01:03:13,640
Speaker 1: three and a half.

1287
01:03:13,480 --> 01:03:13,960
Speaker 2: In this game.

1288
01:03:14,440 --> 01:03:15,600
Speaker 1: So there we have it a little bit of a

1289
01:03:15,680 --> 01:03:18,240
Speaker 1: recap of the weekend. The betters rebound in the NFL

1290
01:03:18,360 --> 01:03:22,680
Speaker 1: from a difficult Thanksgiving Thursday, get a good late run

1291
01:03:22,920 --> 01:03:25,960
Speaker 1: on Sunday with the Chiefs and the Eagles the Ravens

1292
01:03:26,040 --> 01:03:28,400
Speaker 1: to make some money and really take it to the books.

1293
01:03:28,440 --> 01:03:30,040
Speaker 1: Like I said, one haunts maker called it a blood

1294
01:03:30,040 --> 01:03:33,680
Speaker 1: bath and another one said it was really bad. So

1295
01:03:34,280 --> 01:03:36,439
Speaker 1: definitely a good day for the betters. We'll look ahead

1296
01:03:36,480 --> 01:03:38,440
Speaker 1: of the Monday nighter and to look at some of

1297
01:03:38,560 --> 01:03:39,440
Speaker 1: next week's games.

1298
01:03:39,680 --> 01:03:40,680
Speaker 4: Thanks again for having me Joe.

1299
01:03:40,720 --> 01:03:41,480
Speaker 1: We'll see you next week.

1300
01:03:41,800 --> 01:03:43,800
Speaker 5: Thank you, Patrick, and thank you again for listening to

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01:03:43,880 --> 01:03:47,360
Speaker 5: the Action Network podcast presented by bet MGM. Enjoy Monday

1302
01:03:47,400 --> 01:03:49,200
Speaker 5: Night Football. Keep an eye out for all of our

1303
01:03:49,320 --> 01:03:53,400
Speaker 5: NFL Week thirteen podcasts right here on the Action Network.

1304
01:04:09,200 --> 01:04:13,680
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1305
01:04:13,760 --> 01:04:16,520
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1306
01:04:16,560 --> 01:04:19,640
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler