WEBVTT - Get Woke, Go Broke.  Mike Lyons Talks to A&G

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<v Speaker 1>The Ukrainian troops on this side of the border are nervous.

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<v Speaker 1>They're worried about what they describe as provocations. They say

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<v Speaker 1>that the Russians are and Russian back separatists are trying

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<v Speaker 1>to goad them into a fight. And if you remember,

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<v Speaker 1>just a few days ago, the White House said and

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<v Speaker 1>the Pentagon announced that Russia it believed had already infiltrated

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<v Speaker 1>provocateurs into this country who could carry out an attack

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<v Speaker 1>to deliberately cause a conflict, to to deliberately give Russia

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<v Speaker 1>a pretext to cross the Rubicon, to cross that border

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<v Speaker 1>and invade Ukraine. As richer angle of NBC News, it

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<v Speaker 1>seems that the tensions between Russian and Ukraine and just

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<v Speaker 1>the world in general have ratcheted up quite a bit

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<v Speaker 1>in the last twenty four hours or emergency meetings going

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<v Speaker 1>on today now. Europe is heavily involved, France and Germany

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<v Speaker 1>among others, in talking to Russia and Ukraine and trying

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<v Speaker 1>to figure this all all kinds of threats, going various

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<v Speaker 1>directions of sanctions and not starting up the nord Stream pipeline, etcetera.

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<v Speaker 1>To assess the military and diplomatic aspects of this thing.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a great pleasure to welcome back to the show.

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<v Speaker 1>Mike Lions, military analyst who served with various military organizations,

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<v Speaker 1>uh in the US and Europe throughout his career. You've

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<v Speaker 1>seen him on Network TV the rest of it. Mike,

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<v Speaker 1>how are you sir? Hey, guys, great to be back

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<v Speaker 1>with you. Have you new year? Oh yeah, and and

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<v Speaker 1>the same to you. Uh. First of all, let's start

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<v Speaker 1>with Vladimir Putin. What is his interest in Ukraine, whether

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<v Speaker 1>legitimate or no. Yeah, he needs it from a monetary perspective, Um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, Russia's is a dying country. Unfortunately in in

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<v Speaker 1>some place that covers the web land masses with thousand

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear weapons. It's got that outside. But country is going

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<v Speaker 1>in the wrong direction in a lot of ways. And

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<v Speaker 1>so this is a money play and it costs money

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<v Speaker 1>to go to war. But he's figuring that the money

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<v Speaker 1>he'll take out of Ukraine and we'll get from it

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<v Speaker 1>will allow his country to survive, you know, maybe another

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<v Speaker 1>decade or so. I mean, he's got a short lifespan now. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>It's himself and that he realizes that he wants to

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<v Speaker 1>you know, at the former Soviet Union. And this is

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<v Speaker 1>how he's gonna do it. I mean, it's very clear

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<v Speaker 1>they've moved troops now into Belarus, into the north. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>They've got Ukraine totally surrounded with a large number of troops.

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<v Speaker 1>And from from a straight military perspective, it's it's just

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<v Speaker 1>a matter of time. So I was looking at your tweets.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you feel like the whole Belarus angles not getting

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<v Speaker 1>enough attention that and that it's important. Yeah, I think

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of things. So Belarus in the last year

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<v Speaker 1>and now has fall out of favor with NATO. It's

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<v Speaker 1>not one of those alliance partners anymore so, so that

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<v Speaker 1>relationship has been shattered. Now you look to the north

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<v Speaker 1>again of of Belarus, the stony Latvia, Lithuania, and those

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<v Speaker 1>are NATO countries Poland on the border of Belarus. Now

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<v Speaker 1>Poland is gonna feel threatened as a NATO country with

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<v Speaker 1>Russian troops the other Russians could possibly move nuclear weapons

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<v Speaker 1>into Belarus. I think, I think Belarus is gonna end

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<v Speaker 1>up falling very quickly now under Russia in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>kind of like a new Iron curtain so to speak.

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<v Speaker 1>Are just gonna fall in their in their atmosphere as

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<v Speaker 1>a very minimum and allow Russia now to attack Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>from from the north. As people are going to try

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<v Speaker 1>to leave KiB They're gonna try to leave Ukraine go

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<v Speaker 1>probably due west, but they can't no longer escape from

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<v Speaker 1>the north now at this point, with that that kind

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<v Speaker 1>of anvil at the top of their country now being

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<v Speaker 1>being locked off, I'm gonna jump to like maybe the

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<v Speaker 1>biggest question that the average person who doesn't follow this

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<v Speaker 1>stuff very closely wonders. Any chance where militarily with actual

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<v Speaker 1>troops pulled into this US, I don't see it. We

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<v Speaker 1>wouldn't get there on time. It'll be over before we

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<v Speaker 1>could get troops to a boat to get them anywhere

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<v Speaker 1>near the place. There's not a chance. I mean that

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<v Speaker 1>that ship sailed. Back in the nineties when we took

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<v Speaker 1>three troops out of out of Europe Um, we talked

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<v Speaker 1>of big game NATO. NATO has tried to be this

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<v Speaker 1>alliance now and it's become too big and too wielding,

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<v Speaker 1>and of how it's intimidating all. One of one of

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<v Speaker 1>Russia's demands is to basically restore NATO back to it

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<v Speaker 1>was in which kicks out about fourteen countries, kicks out

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<v Speaker 1>all those Slovenia kicks out Romania, Lithuania, the Estonia's, Hungary, Poland,

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<v Speaker 1>and the Czech Republic. So so you know, they want

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<v Speaker 1>to set the clock back and because of what they

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<v Speaker 1>feel the threat is. Now we have some troops in

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<v Speaker 1>these places, but nothing to the matter of a hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and twenty seven thousand. We have to have three hundred

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<v Speaker 1>a thousand troops in order to try to do anything

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<v Speaker 1>in Ukraine at this point, well to that demand of NATO.

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<v Speaker 1>With all due respect, Mr Putin, go to hell, I mean, please,

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<v Speaker 1>never going to happen. I hate to get political about

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<v Speaker 1>it this about this, but it does strike me that

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<v Speaker 1>I thought Trump was the Russian stooge who Putin was

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<v Speaker 1>running rough shot over and that that Biden would stand

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<v Speaker 1>up to him. Yeah. No, And I think the other

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<v Speaker 1>calculation that Putin's are making is that he's probably only

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<v Speaker 1>got about a year left of the Democrats running the

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<v Speaker 1>country right now, because the Republicans will come and take

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<v Speaker 1>over the House and the Senate next fall. Let's saying

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<v Speaker 1>if that happens without the president, it doesn't matter. You're

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<v Speaker 1>just gonna see a lot more Republican influence here. So yeah, no,

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<v Speaker 1>for sure, we were elected because Joe Biden was gonna

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<v Speaker 1>save NATO. It was gonna be great. Um and he

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<v Speaker 1>and he was going to force them to back down.

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<v Speaker 1>And and it's just the opposite. Is like everything else

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<v Speaker 1>you've been gasolate from, you know, these people about what

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<v Speaker 1>actually happened during the last free years and the Trump

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<v Speaker 1>administration and and um, now here we go, the student's

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<v Speaker 1>gonna start. So you've talked before about how many retired

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<v Speaker 1>generals there are out there in the media. So there

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<v Speaker 1>there's an awful lot of them, and they they there

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<v Speaker 1>are a lot of different opinions among them. I've heard

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<v Speaker 1>some opinions that Putin most likely is going to do

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<v Speaker 1>something because this is way too expensive to just be

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<v Speaker 1>a bluff. How do you feel about that? I agree

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<v Speaker 1>it is. It is too expensive. You can't um moved

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<v Speaker 1>to the amount of troops and the logistics he's moved

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<v Speaker 1>not only close to the border, but second and third

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<v Speaker 1>tiers away from it. There from what we've seen in

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<v Speaker 1>satellite shots, again, I bring back Belarus by moving troops

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<v Speaker 1>in there and the threads making their You know, we

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<v Speaker 1>always knew he needed he needed Crimea because he has

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<v Speaker 1>to have that warm water port from for Russia to

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<v Speaker 1>have any kind of fordable navy power, to be able

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<v Speaker 1>to project power throughout the world. So that was gonna happen.

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<v Speaker 1>Happened at the Obama nothing was really responded to that

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<v Speaker 1>we could have moved troops into pol We could have

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<v Speaker 1>done a lot more things back then to repair what

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<v Speaker 1>was going to happen now. But I do think that

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<v Speaker 1>at this point, similar to US when we were moving

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<v Speaker 1>troops to Saudi Arabia and moving to these places, the

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<v Speaker 1>thirst thing I thought of it is like, you don't

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<v Speaker 1>move down that level of troops there without using them.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's just a just again think it's just a

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<v Speaker 1>matter of time. Major Mike Clients is on the phone, Mike,

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<v Speaker 1>I've heard it suggested that the US might indeed arm

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<v Speaker 1>UH the Ukrainian forces top rate as guerillas and perhaps

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<v Speaker 1>may get so painful and financially draining for the the

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<v Speaker 1>Russians that they have to pull out eventually or or

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<v Speaker 1>soften what they're doing. It's you know, it is straight

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<v Speaker 1>out of our playbook in Afghanistan way back in the

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<v Speaker 1>eighties and nineties. What do you think of that possibility, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's a little bit more challenging because Ukraine's

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<v Speaker 1>more of a developed country. It's a built up area

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<v Speaker 1>they don't have. That happened in Afghanistan because the terrain,

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<v Speaker 1>because they were able to use the terrain against the

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<v Speaker 1>Russia invaders at the point. But now Ukraine's got built

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<v Speaker 1>up areas. It's it's red basket. It grows wheat, it's

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<v Speaker 1>not It doesn't have the same advantages that you would

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<v Speaker 1>from a from a counterinsurgency perspective to try to do that.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know how we're gonna get that money in

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<v Speaker 1>the first thing he's gonna do is like likely sealed

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<v Speaker 1>the border. He's gonna own those areas within the Black Sea,

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<v Speaker 1>Odessa and places without you know, so supplies. You're not

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<v Speaker 1>coming in from from water. He's he's sealed off the

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<v Speaker 1>northern portion. It's gonna come only from the east. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>not sure how that stuff is getting there. And this

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<v Speaker 1>is what this has come down to, And that's what

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<v Speaker 1>the calculus is is what's there now, what's going to

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<v Speaker 1>get there in the future? On how basket he closed

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<v Speaker 1>it off. It's just not the same kind of place

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<v Speaker 1>to conduct the counterinsurgency. It's it's not it's not a

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<v Speaker 1>desert of a rock, or it's not the mountains of Afghanistan.

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine is built up areas that he can easily control

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<v Speaker 1>with the forces he's got there. So we um, we're

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<v Speaker 1>threatening all kinds of sanctions Europe is threatening and then

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<v Speaker 1>you know they'd be after the fact, loaning of arms

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<v Speaker 1>and all that sort of stuff that we've talked about.

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<v Speaker 1>But you said it would be over too fast for

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<v Speaker 1>us to help even if we wanted to. How do

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<v Speaker 1>you see this playing out militarily? Is it something that

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<v Speaker 1>last days, weeks, months? How does how does that look days,

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<v Speaker 1>two weeks or so? Let's say I mean the kind

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<v Speaker 1>of material and equipment that they have on their border

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<v Speaker 1>there is in line with more of like a blitz

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<v Speaker 1>Creek heavy armor infantry mobilized mechanized infantry type operation that

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<v Speaker 1>will move very quickly in areas that they'll bypass where

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<v Speaker 1>there's any strongholds, like the Ukrainian military has built up.

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<v Speaker 1>They've done certain things, but I think they're we're setting

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<v Speaker 1>themselves up to a big failure as well. Um, they'll

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<v Speaker 1>just bypassed any of those strong points and then you know,

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<v Speaker 1>hook back around them and then looked us around them

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<v Speaker 1>and choked them off. So I just it's gonna it's

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<v Speaker 1>gonna go too fast for us to try to think

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<v Speaker 1>we're gonna get anything there with any time, with any

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<v Speaker 1>kind of urgency that's going to help the Ukrainian military

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<v Speaker 1>do with what they need to do. You know, Mike

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<v Speaker 1>cat like to circle back to one of the first

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<v Speaker 1>things you said. You're describing how Russia is a decaying country,

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<v Speaker 1>how it's economically you know, bordering Third World is um

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<v Speaker 1>I did hear it asked the other day by somebody

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<v Speaker 1>I can't remember who. Do you have a single product

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<v Speaker 1>in your home, in your garage where you work that

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<v Speaker 1>was made in Russia? And the answer is absolutely not.

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<v Speaker 1>Right now that they are one they're one trick pony,

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<v Speaker 1>and that is energy gas. Um. You know that pipeline

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<v Speaker 1>is important to them. But at some point this taking

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine brings another economic lever intom and that's wheat, and

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<v Speaker 1>that's other other products that come out of the country

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<v Speaker 1>that will likely, you know, be closed off initially, but

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<v Speaker 1>look what sanctions have done to run that's that's that's

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<v Speaker 1>stopped them. They still continue to fund terrorism. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we continue to talk this good game with all these partners,

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<v Speaker 1>but at the end of the day, some of these

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<v Speaker 1>partners have to still do business with with Iran and

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<v Speaker 1>then something in some cases the Germans again, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>the Germans outsourced energy. You've got to be kidding me,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, they outsourced their energy to the Russians here

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<v Speaker 1>and now they're talking about closing off the pipeline. This

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<v Speaker 1>is just talked because at the end of the day,

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<v Speaker 1>there's not going to be cold nights in Germany just

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<v Speaker 1>because of this. They're just gonna say, you know, well,

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<v Speaker 1>we're gonna we'll figure it out and and we'll continue

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<v Speaker 1>to buy our energy from from the Russians after closing

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<v Speaker 1>down all the nuclear plants, so you know, you get

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<v Speaker 1>will go broke, because really, what's happen to some of

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<v Speaker 1>these just you know, these Western European countries. Final question,

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<v Speaker 1>if you were in charge, do you think this is

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<v Speaker 1>worth American lives? You know, if we had the opportunity, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>not one at this point. It's it's unfortunate. It's the

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<v Speaker 1>way of the world. It's it's again, it's so many

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<v Speaker 1>things could have happened in the past, not to this spot.

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<v Speaker 1>But as you look at China with their hundred year

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<v Speaker 1>view of the world, Russia is probably more ten to fifteen.

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<v Speaker 1>And how this has been going on, you know since then,

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that they want to restore NATO back to

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<v Speaker 1>who tells me that Russia has been looking at this

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<v Speaker 1>for the past twenty years, but we're every four years.

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<v Speaker 1>Every four years, we decided to change and we can't

0:11:09.160 --> 0:11:11.000
<v Speaker 1>kind of figure out what to do there. So I

0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:15.079
<v Speaker 1>think again the die has been cast for this to happen. Um.

0:11:15.200 --> 0:11:17.880
<v Speaker 1>Ronald Reagan try to foresee that back when he was president,

0:11:17.920 --> 0:11:21.000
<v Speaker 1>for example, recognized the nuclear problem to the disarmament. This

0:11:21.040 --> 0:11:23.520
<v Speaker 1>is this transcends just the conventional side of Ukraine. It's

0:11:23.520 --> 0:11:25.400
<v Speaker 1>the missile trees that we don't have anymore with the

0:11:25.480 --> 0:11:27.840
<v Speaker 1>Chinese and the Russians, and it's all the other things

0:11:27.840 --> 0:11:29.600
<v Speaker 1>that are gonna escalate as an arms race that's gonna

0:11:29.640 --> 0:11:32.240
<v Speaker 1>take place once this happens. And the question is how

0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:33.560
<v Speaker 1>can we get the lid back on that as soon

0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:35.800
<v Speaker 1>as possible. I'm not sure we have the intellectual capital,

0:11:35.880 --> 0:11:37.240
<v Speaker 1>I'm not sure we have the stomach to do that

0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:39.360
<v Speaker 1>within this this administration, at least, whether or not the

0:11:39.400 --> 0:11:42.480
<v Speaker 1>next administration just will see it's an ugly world. Major

0:11:42.559 --> 0:11:45.280
<v Speaker 1>Mike lyons a great follow on Twitter. By the way,

0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:47.960
<v Speaker 1>Mike is always great fun to talk to you. Thanks

0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:50.520
<v Speaker 1>a million for making the time. Oakkay, thanks for having me.

0:11:51.200 --> 0:11:54.160
<v Speaker 1>It's an ugly world, Like Joe just said, it always

0:11:54.280 --> 0:11:57.240
<v Speaker 1>has been. We had a brief period that we all

0:11:57.280 --> 0:11:59.760
<v Speaker 1>got lulled into thinking, No, this is the natural state

0:11:59.800 --> 0:12:03.880
<v Speaker 1>of things where everything you know, one country wouldn't invade

0:12:03.880 --> 0:12:06.640
<v Speaker 1>another country. That just can't happen anymore. And we got

0:12:06.720 --> 0:12:08.760
<v Speaker 1>lulled in to thinking that the stated world. No, this

0:12:08.840 --> 0:12:11.800
<v Speaker 1>is the state of the world. The bully on the

0:12:11.840 --> 0:12:14.400
<v Speaker 1>playground does whatever the hell he wants unless somebody can

0:12:14.440 --> 0:12:17.400
<v Speaker 1>stop them. That's the state of the world, right, And

0:12:17.520 --> 0:12:19.520
<v Speaker 1>you can keep him out of year yard, but you

0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:21.920
<v Speaker 1>probably can't keep him out of two yards away unless

0:12:21.920 --> 0:12:24.000
<v Speaker 1>you're willing to fight him. And everybody's got to come

0:12:24.040 --> 0:12:26.040
<v Speaker 1>up with their own self interesting, like Mike Line said, no,

0:12:26.040 --> 0:12:28.640
<v Speaker 1>no, no no, not one, not one. American life is worth this.

0:12:28.800 --> 0:12:31.040
<v Speaker 1>So you know, hey, Europe, you want to send some troops,

0:12:31.040 --> 0:12:34.080
<v Speaker 1>go ahead. Otherwise that what are you gonna do? Interesting?

0:12:34.480 --> 0:12:37.880
<v Speaker 1>And Putin knows that too, of course he does. Yeah,

0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:41.440
<v Speaker 1>he's not much of a sentimentalist. Putent right, more like

0:12:41.480 --> 0:12:43.920
<v Speaker 1>a reptile. I'm glad we talked to Mike, because man,

0:12:43.960 --> 0:12:45.800
<v Speaker 1>this could happen at any moment, As the White House

0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:49.080
<v Speaker 1>said yesterday,