Speaker 1: The Ukrainian troops on this side of the border are nervous.
Speaker 1: They're worried about what they describe as provocations. They say
Speaker 1: that the Russians are and Russian back separatists are trying
Speaker 1: to goad them into a fight. And if you remember,
Speaker 1: just a few days ago, the White House said and
Speaker 1: the Pentagon announced that Russia it believed had already infiltrated
Speaker 1: provocateurs into this country who could carry out an attack
Speaker 1: to deliberately cause a conflict, to to deliberately give Russia
Speaker 1: a pretext to cross the Rubicon, to cross that border
Speaker 1: and invade Ukraine. As richer angle of NBC News, it
Speaker 1: seems that the tensions between Russian and Ukraine and just
Speaker 1: the world in general have ratcheted up quite a bit
Speaker 1: in the last twenty four hours or emergency meetings going
Speaker 1: on today now. Europe is heavily involved, France and Germany
Speaker 1: among others, in talking to Russia and Ukraine and trying
Speaker 1: to figure this all all kinds of threats, going various
Speaker 1: directions of sanctions and not starting up the nord Stream pipeline, etcetera.
Speaker 1: To assess the military and diplomatic aspects of this thing.
Speaker 1: It's a great pleasure to welcome back to the show.
Speaker 1: Mike Lions, military analyst who served with various military organizations,
Speaker 1: uh in the US and Europe throughout his career. You've
Speaker 1: seen him on Network TV the rest of it. Mike,
Speaker 1: how are you sir? Hey, guys, great to be back
Speaker 1: with you. Have you new year? Oh yeah, and and
Speaker 1: the same to you. Uh. First of all, let's start
Speaker 1: with Vladimir Putin. What is his interest in Ukraine, whether
Speaker 1: legitimate or no. Yeah, he needs it from a monetary perspective, Um,
Speaker 1: you know, Russia's is a dying country. Unfortunately in in
Speaker 1: some place that covers the web land masses with thousand
Speaker 1: nuclear weapons. It's got that outside. But country is going
Speaker 1: in the wrong direction in a lot of ways. And
Speaker 1: so this is a money play and it costs money
Speaker 1: to go to war. But he's figuring that the money
Speaker 1: he'll take out of Ukraine and we'll get from it
Speaker 1: will allow his country to survive, you know, maybe another
Speaker 1: decade or so. I mean, he's got a short lifespan now. Uh.
Speaker 1: It's himself and that he realizes that he wants to
Speaker 1: you know, at the former Soviet Union. And this is
Speaker 1: how he's gonna do it. I mean, it's very clear
Speaker 1: they've moved troops now into Belarus, into the north. Um,
Speaker 1: They've got Ukraine totally surrounded with a large number of troops.
Speaker 1: And from from a straight military perspective, it's it's just
Speaker 1: a matter of time. So I was looking at your tweets.
Speaker 1: Do you feel like the whole Belarus angles not getting
Speaker 1: enough attention that and that it's important. Yeah, I think
Speaker 1: a couple of things. So Belarus in the last year
Speaker 1: and now has fall out of favor with NATO. It's
Speaker 1: not one of those alliance partners anymore so, so that
Speaker 1: relationship has been shattered. Now you look to the north
Speaker 1: again of of Belarus, the stony Latvia, Lithuania, and those
Speaker 1: are NATO countries Poland on the border of Belarus. Now
Speaker 1: Poland is gonna feel threatened as a NATO country with
Speaker 1: Russian troops the other Russians could possibly move nuclear weapons
Speaker 1: into Belarus. I think, I think Belarus is gonna end
Speaker 1: up falling very quickly now under Russia in terms of
Speaker 1: kind of like a new Iron curtain so to speak.
Speaker 1: Are just gonna fall in their in their atmosphere as
Speaker 1: a very minimum and allow Russia now to attack Ukraine
Speaker 1: from from the north. As people are going to try
Speaker 1: to leave KiB They're gonna try to leave Ukraine go
Speaker 1: probably due west, but they can't no longer escape from
Speaker 1: the north now at this point, with that that kind
Speaker 1: of anvil at the top of their country now being
Speaker 1: being locked off, I'm gonna jump to like maybe the
Speaker 1: biggest question that the average person who doesn't follow this
Speaker 1: stuff very closely wonders. Any chance where militarily with actual
Speaker 1: troops pulled into this US, I don't see it. We
Speaker 1: wouldn't get there on time. It'll be over before we
Speaker 1: could get troops to a boat to get them anywhere
Speaker 1: near the place. There's not a chance. I mean that
Speaker 1: that ship sailed. Back in the nineties when we took
Speaker 1: three troops out of out of Europe Um, we talked
Speaker 1: of big game NATO. NATO has tried to be this
Speaker 1: alliance now and it's become too big and too wielding,
Speaker 1: and of how it's intimidating all. One of one of
Speaker 1: Russia's demands is to basically restore NATO back to it
Speaker 1: was in which kicks out about fourteen countries, kicks out
Speaker 1: all those Slovenia kicks out Romania, Lithuania, the Estonia's, Hungary, Poland,
Speaker 1: and the Czech Republic. So so you know, they want
Speaker 1: to set the clock back and because of what they
Speaker 1: feel the threat is. Now we have some troops in
Speaker 1: these places, but nothing to the matter of a hundred
Speaker 1: and twenty seven thousand. We have to have three hundred
Speaker 1: a thousand troops in order to try to do anything
Speaker 1: in Ukraine at this point, well to that demand of NATO.
Speaker 1: With all due respect, Mr Putin, go to hell, I mean, please,
Speaker 1: never going to happen. I hate to get political about
Speaker 1: it this about this, but it does strike me that
Speaker 1: I thought Trump was the Russian stooge who Putin was
Speaker 1: running rough shot over and that that Biden would stand
Speaker 1: up to him. Yeah. No, And I think the other
Speaker 1: calculation that Putin's are making is that he's probably only
Speaker 1: got about a year left of the Democrats running the
Speaker 1: country right now, because the Republicans will come and take
Speaker 1: over the House and the Senate next fall. Let's saying
Speaker 1: if that happens without the president, it doesn't matter. You're
Speaker 1: just gonna see a lot more Republican influence here. So yeah, no,
Speaker 1: for sure, we were elected because Joe Biden was gonna
Speaker 1: save NATO. It was gonna be great. Um and he
Speaker 1: and he was going to force them to back down.
Speaker 1: And and it's just the opposite. Is like everything else
Speaker 1: you've been gasolate from, you know, these people about what
Speaker 1: actually happened during the last free years and the Trump
Speaker 1: administration and and um, now here we go, the student's
Speaker 1: gonna start. So you've talked before about how many retired
Speaker 1: generals there are out there in the media. So there
Speaker 1: there's an awful lot of them, and they they there
Speaker 1: are a lot of different opinions among them. I've heard
Speaker 1: some opinions that Putin most likely is going to do
Speaker 1: something because this is way too expensive to just be
Speaker 1: a bluff. How do you feel about that? I agree
Speaker 1: it is. It is too expensive. You can't um moved
Speaker 1: to the amount of troops and the logistics he's moved
Speaker 1: not only close to the border, but second and third
Speaker 1: tiers away from it. There from what we've seen in
Speaker 1: satellite shots, again, I bring back Belarus by moving troops
Speaker 1: in there and the threads making their You know, we
Speaker 1: always knew he needed he needed Crimea because he has
Speaker 1: to have that warm water port from for Russia to
Speaker 1: have any kind of fordable navy power, to be able
Speaker 1: to project power throughout the world. So that was gonna happen.
Speaker 1: Happened at the Obama nothing was really responded to that
Speaker 1: we could have moved troops into pol We could have
Speaker 1: done a lot more things back then to repair what
Speaker 1: was going to happen now. But I do think that
Speaker 1: at this point, similar to US when we were moving
Speaker 1: troops to Saudi Arabia and moving to these places, the
Speaker 1: thirst thing I thought of it is like, you don't
Speaker 1: move down that level of troops there without using them.
Speaker 1: So it's just a just again think it's just a
Speaker 1: matter of time. Major Mike Clients is on the phone, Mike,
Speaker 1: I've heard it suggested that the US might indeed arm
Speaker 1: UH the Ukrainian forces top rate as guerillas and perhaps
Speaker 1: may get so painful and financially draining for the the
Speaker 1: Russians that they have to pull out eventually or or
Speaker 1: soften what they're doing. It's you know, it is straight
Speaker 1: out of our playbook in Afghanistan way back in the
Speaker 1: eighties and nineties. What do you think of that possibility, Well,
Speaker 1: I think it's a little bit more challenging because Ukraine's
Speaker 1: more of a developed country. It's a built up area
Speaker 1: they don't have. That happened in Afghanistan because the terrain,
Speaker 1: because they were able to use the terrain against the
Speaker 1: Russia invaders at the point. But now Ukraine's got built
Speaker 1: up areas. It's it's red basket. It grows wheat, it's
Speaker 1: not It doesn't have the same advantages that you would
Speaker 1: from a from a counterinsurgency perspective to try to do that.
Speaker 1: I don't know how we're gonna get that money in
Speaker 1: the first thing he's gonna do is like likely sealed
Speaker 1: the border. He's gonna own those areas within the Black Sea,
Speaker 1: Odessa and places without you know, so supplies. You're not
Speaker 1: coming in from from water. He's he's sealed off the
Speaker 1: northern portion. It's gonna come only from the east. I'm
Speaker 1: not sure how that stuff is getting there. And this
Speaker 1: is what this has come down to, And that's what
Speaker 1: the calculus is is what's there now, what's going to
Speaker 1: get there in the future? On how basket he closed
Speaker 1: it off. It's just not the same kind of place
Speaker 1: to conduct the counterinsurgency. It's it's not it's not a
Speaker 1: desert of a rock, or it's not the mountains of Afghanistan.
Speaker 1: Ukraine is built up areas that he can easily control
Speaker 1: with the forces he's got there. So we um, we're
Speaker 1: threatening all kinds of sanctions Europe is threatening and then
Speaker 1: you know they'd be after the fact, loaning of arms
Speaker 1: and all that sort of stuff that we've talked about.
Speaker 1: But you said it would be over too fast for
Speaker 1: us to help even if we wanted to. How do
Speaker 1: you see this playing out militarily? Is it something that
Speaker 1: last days, weeks, months? How does how does that look days,
Speaker 1: two weeks or so? Let's say I mean the kind
Speaker 1: of material and equipment that they have on their border
Speaker 1: there is in line with more of like a blitz
Speaker 1: Creek heavy armor infantry mobilized mechanized infantry type operation that
Speaker 1: will move very quickly in areas that they'll bypass where
Speaker 1: there's any strongholds, like the Ukrainian military has built up.
Speaker 1: They've done certain things, but I think they're we're setting
Speaker 1: themselves up to a big failure as well. Um, they'll
Speaker 1: just bypassed any of those strong points and then you know,
Speaker 1: hook back around them and then looked us around them
Speaker 1: and choked them off. So I just it's gonna it's
Speaker 1: gonna go too fast for us to try to think
Speaker 1: we're gonna get anything there with any time, with any
Speaker 1: kind of urgency that's going to help the Ukrainian military
Speaker 1: do with what they need to do. You know, Mike
Speaker 1: cat like to circle back to one of the first
Speaker 1: things you said. You're describing how Russia is a decaying country,
Speaker 1: how it's economically you know, bordering Third World is um
Speaker 1: I did hear it asked the other day by somebody
Speaker 1: I can't remember who. Do you have a single product
Speaker 1: in your home, in your garage where you work that
Speaker 1: was made in Russia? And the answer is absolutely not.
Speaker 1: Right now that they are one they're one trick pony,
Speaker 1: and that is energy gas. Um. You know that pipeline
Speaker 1: is important to them. But at some point this taking
Speaker 1: Ukraine brings another economic lever intom and that's wheat, and
Speaker 1: that's other other products that come out of the country
Speaker 1: that will likely, you know, be closed off initially, but
Speaker 1: look what sanctions have done to run that's that's that's
Speaker 1: stopped them. They still continue to fund terrorism. I mean,
Speaker 1: we continue to talk this good game with all these partners,
Speaker 1: but at the end of the day, some of these
Speaker 1: partners have to still do business with with Iran and
Speaker 1: then something in some cases the Germans again, for example,
Speaker 1: the Germans outsourced energy. You've got to be kidding me,
Speaker 1: you know, they outsourced their energy to the Russians here
Speaker 1: and now they're talking about closing off the pipeline. This
Speaker 1: is just talked because at the end of the day,
Speaker 1: there's not going to be cold nights in Germany just
Speaker 1: because of this. They're just gonna say, you know, well,
Speaker 1: we're gonna we'll figure it out and and we'll continue
Speaker 1: to buy our energy from from the Russians after closing
Speaker 1: down all the nuclear plants, so you know, you get
Speaker 1: will go broke, because really, what's happen to some of
Speaker 1: these just you know, these Western European countries. Final question,
Speaker 1: if you were in charge, do you think this is
Speaker 1: worth American lives? You know, if we had the opportunity, Yeah,
Speaker 1: not one at this point. It's it's unfortunate. It's the
Speaker 1: way of the world. It's it's again, it's so many
Speaker 1: things could have happened in the past, not to this spot.
Speaker 1: But as you look at China with their hundred year
Speaker 1: view of the world, Russia is probably more ten to fifteen.
Speaker 1: And how this has been going on, you know since then,
Speaker 1: the fact that they want to restore NATO back to
Speaker 1: who tells me that Russia has been looking at this
Speaker 1: for the past twenty years, but we're every four years.
Speaker 1: Every four years, we decided to change and we can't
Speaker 1: kind of figure out what to do there. So I
Speaker 1: think again the die has been cast for this to happen. Um.
Speaker 1: Ronald Reagan try to foresee that back when he was president,
Speaker 1: for example, recognized the nuclear problem to the disarmament. This
Speaker 1: is this transcends just the conventional side of Ukraine. It's
Speaker 1: the missile trees that we don't have anymore with the
Speaker 1: Chinese and the Russians, and it's all the other things
Speaker 1: that are gonna escalate as an arms race that's gonna
Speaker 1: take place once this happens. And the question is how
Speaker 1: can we get the lid back on that as soon
Speaker 1: as possible. I'm not sure we have the intellectual capital,
Speaker 1: I'm not sure we have the stomach to do that
Speaker 1: within this this administration, at least, whether or not the
Speaker 1: next administration just will see it's an ugly world. Major
Speaker 1: Mike lyons a great follow on Twitter. By the way,
Speaker 1: Mike is always great fun to talk to you. Thanks
Speaker 1: a million for making the time. Oakkay, thanks for having me.
Speaker 1: It's an ugly world, Like Joe just said, it always
Speaker 1: has been. We had a brief period that we all
Speaker 1: got lulled into thinking, No, this is the natural state
Speaker 1: of things where everything you know, one country wouldn't invade
Speaker 1: another country. That just can't happen anymore. And we got
Speaker 1: lulled in to thinking that the stated world. No, this
Speaker 1: is the state of the world. The bully on the
Speaker 1: playground does whatever the hell he wants unless somebody can
Speaker 1: stop them. That's the state of the world, right, And
Speaker 1: you can keep him out of year yard, but you
Speaker 1: probably can't keep him out of two yards away unless
Speaker 1: you're willing to fight him. And everybody's got to come
Speaker 1: up with their own self interesting, like Mike Line said, no,
Speaker 1: no, no no, not one, not one. American life is worth this.
Speaker 1: So you know, hey, Europe, you want to send some troops,
Speaker 1: go ahead. Otherwise that what are you gonna do? Interesting?
Speaker 1: And Putin knows that too, of course he does. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he's not much of a sentimentalist. Putent right, more like
Speaker 1: a reptile. I'm glad we talked to Mike, because man,
Speaker 1: this could happen at any moment, As the White House
Speaker 1: said yesterday,