WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Tom Porcelli & Steph Guild

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best idea on

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<v Speaker 1>Apple podcasts to get the week started, a busy economic week.

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<v Speaker 1>PPI tomorrow. That's the business inflation. It's not the same

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<v Speaker 1>as my youth. They've reformulated it, but it's become very

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<v Speaker 1>important and then critically important. The CPI report on Wednesday,

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<v Speaker 1>All including Chairman Paul, will be looking at that, and

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<v Speaker 1>then retail sales pro tip. Remember that retail sales dynamics

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<v Speaker 1>in the actual series is reported nominally. It's not inflation adjusted,

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<v Speaker 1>so it's more noisy. There's more dynamic there. I do

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<v Speaker 1>look at what's called the control group, and sort of

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<v Speaker 1>that's where I focus on as Michael McKee looks at

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<v Speaker 1>thirty forty sixty line items of retail sales. We'll do

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<v Speaker 1>that on a Thursday this week on the jobs front,

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<v Speaker 1>and unfortunately we can be talking any economic theme, but

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<v Speaker 1>when Tom Parcelli's on with PGUM, I have to go

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<v Speaker 1>back to his competency that brought him to my attention

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<v Speaker 1>and all of financial media years ago, which is this

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<v Speaker 1>careful study of the job market wage growth, wage dynamics,

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<v Speaker 1>if you will, and then inflation adjusted wage growth, the

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<v Speaker 1>real wage here from Pgium Tom Parcelli on the fragility

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<v Speaker 1>of the market.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's very fragile. I think, and again everyone

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<v Speaker 2>should prove this to themselves. Just look at real spending

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<v Speaker 2>year a year, and then look at the change in

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<v Speaker 2>the unemployment rate year on year, and look at that relationship.

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<v Speaker 2>The consumption tends not to respond well when the unemployment

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<v Speaker 2>rate is rising, and I think that's the real challenge

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<v Speaker 2>for the economic backdrop. I mean, I see slower growth

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<v Speaker 2>in the months to come. I still think that we

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<v Speaker 2>can avoid a recession, but the fit has to get

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<v Speaker 2>on with it to basically help in that regard. But

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<v Speaker 2>it's going to be a close one.

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<v Speaker 1>Tom Perscelli of PGUM there, and we'll get much more

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<v Speaker 1>on this as we get closer to dare I say,

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<v Speaker 1>the CPI report Wednesday and then onto that critical jobs report.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't even know what date it is sometime, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>labor day gets in there, school school goes back September

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<v Speaker 1>fourth for one of the cherubs. I was sort of shocked.

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<v Speaker 1>That's like southern or Midwest, that's appallingly early. But the anyway,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we get to September and we'll get a

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<v Speaker 1>Jobs report as well. We never know who's going to

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<v Speaker 1>come in the door in a home run. Today we

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<v Speaker 1>have different phrases we used to judge people. And she

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<v Speaker 1>was lights out. Steph Guild is with Robinhood and she's

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<v Speaker 1>doing strategy for robin Hood. It's just a fascinating conversation.

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<v Speaker 1>She comes from JP Morgan small Bank and she's come

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<v Speaker 1>over to Robinhood, which is the biggest adjustment of anybody

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<v Speaker 1>in the history of Bloomberg surveyals. There's no question about that.

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<v Speaker 1>And she was riveting, riveting on all that's going on

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<v Speaker 1>with a younger dynamic. She said, average agent Robinhood is

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<v Speaker 1>thirty three years old. I thought it was like fifteen

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<v Speaker 1>or sixteen. Shows you what I know. But here is

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<v Speaker 1>Steph Guild on teaching people that are doing meme stocks

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<v Speaker 1>how to be diversified stuff. Guild of Robinhood.

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<v Speaker 3>You have to, you know, stay diversified. I always say,

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<v Speaker 3>like everyone's money is kind of like a pyramid. You

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<v Speaker 3>need to have an emergency cash, you know, just so

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<v Speaker 3>you lose your job whatever happens. Like you've got that

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<v Speaker 3>for at least six months, then the next layer. Make

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<v Speaker 3>sure you have some diversification and our customer base, like

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<v Speaker 3>we were seeing it this past you know week of volatility.

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<v Speaker 3>They weren't just buying the names that are in our

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<v Speaker 3>Robinhood Investor in next they were also buying broad based

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<v Speaker 3>index funds. Is using is a way to add to it.

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<v Speaker 3>And then after that, you know, yes, like invest in

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<v Speaker 3>your aspirational things because I think if you always just

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<v Speaker 3>ever say fully diversified, you're never gonna see it. You

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<v Speaker 3>have to take risk to get returned. That always comes

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<v Speaker 3>with it.

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<v Speaker 1>Stuff Guild really successful with Robinhood. We'll have her back again.

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<v Speaker 1>So it writes, are you ready for this? She writes

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<v Speaker 1>a blog for robin Hood Stephanie Guild and it's called

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<v Speaker 1>Investors Guild, Investment Guild something like that. How cute it works.

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<v Speaker 1>It's single best idea on a Monday before a very

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<v Speaker 1>busy week. Let me tell you about a burgeoning social

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<v Speaker 1>because we're making some changes. I think they're constructive and

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<v Speaker 1>they're particularly addressed to a market. We knew it existed,

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<v Speaker 1>but we did not understand the size, and that is

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<v Speaker 1>our international market. We're out on Apple car Play that's

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<v Speaker 1>worldwide at least twenty nations. Android Auto same thing Android

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<v Speaker 1>on YouTube and subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. It's by far

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<v Speaker 1>if I can figure it out, Instagram and we're going

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<v Speaker 1>huge thrust to our international audience. We're getting it out

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<v Speaker 1>of the coming days. If that Bill can teach me

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<v Speaker 1>how to do Instagram, because I failed. I took TikTok

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<v Speaker 1>one on one and failed, so we're tried Instagram. This

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<v Speaker 1>is on Apple Podcasts. Single best idea.