1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:14,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best idea on 2 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:17,960 Speaker 1: Apple podcasts to get the week started, a busy economic week. 3 00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:22,639 Speaker 1: PPI tomorrow. That's the business inflation. It's not the same 4 00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: as my youth. They've reformulated it, but it's become very 5 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:29,800 Speaker 1: important and then critically important. The CPI report on Wednesday, 6 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:33,680 Speaker 1: All including Chairman Paul, will be looking at that, and 7 00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 1: then retail sales pro tip. Remember that retail sales dynamics 8 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:44,520 Speaker 1: in the actual series is reported nominally. It's not inflation adjusted, 9 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 1: so it's more noisy. There's more dynamic there. I do 10 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:50,920 Speaker 1: look at what's called the control group, and sort of 11 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:53,159 Speaker 1: that's where I focus on as Michael McKee looks at 12 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 1: thirty forty sixty line items of retail sales. We'll do 13 00:00:56,880 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: that on a Thursday this week on the jobs front, 14 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 1: and unfortunately we can be talking any economic theme, but 15 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:07,840 Speaker 1: when Tom Parcelli's on with PGUM, I have to go 16 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 1: back to his competency that brought him to my attention 17 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:17,200 Speaker 1: and all of financial media years ago, which is this 18 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:23,640 Speaker 1: careful study of the job market wage growth, wage dynamics, 19 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 1: if you will, and then inflation adjusted wage growth, the 20 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 1: real wage here from Pgium Tom Parcelli on the fragility 21 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:33,920 Speaker 1: of the market. 22 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:36,720 Speaker 2: I think it's very fragile. I think, and again everyone 23 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:40,399 Speaker 2: should prove this to themselves. Just look at real spending 24 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 2: year a year, and then look at the change in 25 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 2: the unemployment rate year on year, and look at that relationship. 26 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 2: The consumption tends not to respond well when the unemployment 27 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 2: rate is rising, and I think that's the real challenge 28 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 2: for the economic backdrop. I mean, I see slower growth 29 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 2: in the months to come. I still think that we 30 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 2: can avoid a recession, but the fit has to get 31 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 2: on with it to basically help in that regard. But 32 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:10,960 Speaker 2: it's going to be a close one. 33 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:14,239 Speaker 1: Tom Perscelli of PGUM there, and we'll get much more 34 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:17,480 Speaker 1: on this as we get closer to dare I say, 35 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 1: the CPI report Wednesday and then onto that critical jobs report. 36 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:25,120 Speaker 1: I don't even know what date it is sometime, you know, 37 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 1: labor day gets in there, school school goes back September 38 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 1: fourth for one of the cherubs. I was sort of shocked. 39 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 1: That's like southern or Midwest, that's appallingly early. But the anyway, 40 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 1: you know, we get to September and we'll get a 41 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:40,919 Speaker 1: Jobs report as well. We never know who's going to 42 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 1: come in the door in a home run. Today we 43 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:46,960 Speaker 1: have different phrases we used to judge people. And she 44 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 1: was lights out. Steph Guild is with Robinhood and she's 45 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:57,079 Speaker 1: doing strategy for robin Hood. It's just a fascinating conversation. 46 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 1: She comes from JP Morgan small Bank and she's come 47 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 1: over to Robinhood, which is the biggest adjustment of anybody 48 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 1: in the history of Bloomberg surveyals. There's no question about that. 49 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:11,799 Speaker 1: And she was riveting, riveting on all that's going on 50 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:14,959 Speaker 1: with a younger dynamic. She said, average agent Robinhood is 51 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:17,399 Speaker 1: thirty three years old. I thought it was like fifteen 52 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 1: or sixteen. Shows you what I know. But here is 53 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 1: Steph Guild on teaching people that are doing meme stocks 54 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:30,720 Speaker 1: how to be diversified stuff. Guild of Robinhood. 55 00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 3: You have to, you know, stay diversified. I always say, 56 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 3: like everyone's money is kind of like a pyramid. You 57 00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:38,760 Speaker 3: need to have an emergency cash, you know, just so 58 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 3: you lose your job whatever happens. Like you've got that 59 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 3: for at least six months, then the next layer. Make 60 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 3: sure you have some diversification and our customer base, like 61 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 3: we were seeing it this past you know week of volatility. 62 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 3: They weren't just buying the names that are in our 63 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:56,960 Speaker 3: Robinhood Investor in next they were also buying broad based 64 00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 3: index funds. Is using is a way to add to it. 65 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 3: And then after that, you know, yes, like invest in 66 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:08,560 Speaker 3: your aspirational things because I think if you always just 67 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 3: ever say fully diversified, you're never gonna see it. You 68 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 3: have to take risk to get returned. That always comes 69 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 3: with it. 70 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:18,679 Speaker 1: Stuff Guild really successful with Robinhood. We'll have her back again. 71 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 1: So it writes, are you ready for this? She writes 72 00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:26,279 Speaker 1: a blog for robin Hood Stephanie Guild and it's called 73 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:31,839 Speaker 1: Investors Guild, Investment Guild something like that. How cute it works. 74 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 1: It's single best idea on a Monday before a very 75 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 1: busy week. Let me tell you about a burgeoning social 76 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 1: because we're making some changes. I think they're constructive and 77 00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:46,039 Speaker 1: they're particularly addressed to a market. We knew it existed, 78 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:50,320 Speaker 1: but we did not understand the size, and that is 79 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 1: our international market. We're out on Apple car Play that's 80 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:59,719 Speaker 1: worldwide at least twenty nations. Android Auto same thing Android 81 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:02,240 Speaker 1: Auto doing very well. Both of them are coming out 82 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:09,480 Speaker 1: with revamps if you will, of their software. We're out 83 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:13,160 Speaker 1: on YouTube and subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. It's by far 84 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 1: and away the best place to help us. And of 85 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:18,839 Speaker 1: course we're doing this podcast and we're thinking of launching 86 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:22,719 Speaker 1: if I can figure it out, Instagram and we're going 87 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 1: to be doing Bloomberg surveillance on YouTube Instagram with a 88 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:30,360 Speaker 1: huge thrust to our international audience. We're getting it out 89 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 1: of the coming days. If that Bill can teach me 90 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:36,800 Speaker 1: how to do Instagram, because I failed. I took TikTok 91 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:40,440 Speaker 1: one on one and failed, so we're tried Instagram. This 92 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: is on Apple Podcasts. Single best idea.