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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read a lot?

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Speaker 1: They're up for running a game so smooth, so sweet.

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Speaker 3: Splendid sisting just glorious execution.

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Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop of mind?

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Speaker 3: God buddy, And that's why you see nor beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picts them.

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Speaker 4: Shut up.

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Speaker 2: I'm trying.

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Speaker 1: Again the wall.

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Speaker 3: It's left to Wada, wide eyed drill pibus, How old

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Speaker 3: Earth big happens.

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Speaker 4: Hello everybody, and welcome back to Wondergirl, the soccer betting

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Speaker 4: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Leeboff

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Speaker 4: and joining me today is always are my friends and colleagues,

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Speaker 4: BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo and lads, let's just get

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Speaker 4: right to it.

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Speaker 2: We have four.

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Speaker 4: Champions League quarterfinals to talk about, a relegation six pointer

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Speaker 4: in the Premier League on Wednesday, and we'll also go

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Speaker 4: through some Europa League before giving our best bets and

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Speaker 4: then getting out of here. But we will start with

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Speaker 4: one of those quarterfinals. We'll start with man City their

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Speaker 4: minus two seventy at home hosting Diego Simeoni's Atletico Madrid.

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Speaker 4: They're eight to one on the money line.

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Speaker 1: To draw is four to one.

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Speaker 4: Man City is minus three seventy five to advance at

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Speaker 4: Letty plus two eighty five.

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Speaker 1: Real, quick, we'll just go.

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Speaker 4: I just want to go through the odds for the

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Speaker 4: whole tournament right now. Cities plus one ninety, Liverpool right

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Speaker 4: behind them plus two hundred Byron three to one, Chelsea

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Speaker 4: four to one, Real Madrid fourteen to one, at Letigo

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Speaker 4: Madrid twenty five to one, be a real eighty to one.

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Speaker 4: Benfica one hundred and fifty to one. The biggest long

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Speaker 4: shot still left with.

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Speaker 1: City and aunt Letty.

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Speaker 4: Like we've talked about this a little bit with Diego

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Speaker 4: Simeoni side, they're really tough to deal with in knockout

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Speaker 4: tournaments because I think they're an outlier team. They're not

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Speaker 4: the type of team that you can really just trust

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Speaker 4: the numbers, because they will put in some incredible performances

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Speaker 4: defensively and just nick games. They have shown throughout Semioni's

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Speaker 4: tenure the wander Metric Politano that they can just do that.

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Speaker 4: They can upset any team on any given night. So

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Speaker 4: that makes me a little nervous to back City in

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Speaker 4: any way here, but it does feel like this is

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Speaker 4: going to be a pretty tight contest BJ two of

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Speaker 4: the best defensive sides in Europe. Is this as simple

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Speaker 4: as just looking towards the under?

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Speaker 1: I think so. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So both sides are averaging are allowing under point nine

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Speaker 3: expected goals for match domestically the season, which is top

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Speaker 3: four in Europe's top five leagues, so automatically that points

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Speaker 3: me to an under, because I mean, what's going to

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Speaker 3: I mean, the pace of this game is going to

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Speaker 3: be incredibly slow, because, as we've talked about many many times,

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Speaker 3: City is back to their just pragmatic, slow build up

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Speaker 3: style of play. They're averaging sixty eight percent possession in

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Speaker 3: the Premier League and they're actually have the lowest sequence

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Speaker 3: time and direc speed of anybody in Europe's.

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Speaker 1: Top five leagues.

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Speaker 3: So they are truly just holding the ball in the

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Speaker 3: opponent's final third and just looking to break them down

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Speaker 3: and with a bunch of build up play. That's fine

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Speaker 3: with that, Lettigo. They're just going to sit back in

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Speaker 3: two low blocks of four. They're going to stay structured

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Speaker 3: and van City is not really the type of team

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Speaker 3: that can exploit them, because if you play that slow

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Speaker 3: and you allow a solid defensive team like Atletico to

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Speaker 3: get back into position very easily, then it's going to

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Speaker 3: be hard to break them down. But my guess is

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Speaker 3: Athletico will probably play very very cautious with being the

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Speaker 3: first leg and with it being at the Ethie Head

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Speaker 3: I mean total total for the season, Athletico has only

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Speaker 3: allowed twenty two big scoring chances in thirty League of matches.

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Speaker 3: You know, allowed one big scoring chance over the two

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Speaker 3: legs against United and really was very dominant in both meetings.

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Speaker 3: So with Athletico just playing very cautious against the Manchester

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Speaker 3: City team that is going to have to beat them

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Speaker 3: with a ton of low quality chances, I think this

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Speaker 3: is just setting up for a perfect under type here.

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Speaker 3: So under two half goals at plus one to ten,

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Speaker 3: I only have two point three goals projected, So I

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Speaker 3: like that price on under two and.

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Speaker 2: A half goals.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. I also like the angle of if City gets

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Speaker 4: ahead in the first thirty minutes or so, then backing

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Speaker 4: another live under too, because Atletico has a lot of

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Speaker 4: costs to play cautiously through to just keep the goal

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Speaker 4: differential in tac going back to Spain for the second leg.

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Speaker 4: So I think it's just you got to look at Unders.

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Speaker 4: I don't mind to plan the draw at four to one.

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Speaker 4: City they play such a like a slow build up style.

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Speaker 4: They pass the ball, they'll think the ball ticki taka

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Speaker 4: around for seemingly twenty thirty minutes at a time, and

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Speaker 4: I think that kind of plays into Atletico's hands a

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Speaker 4: little bit because they're not going to try to press

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Speaker 4: to get the ball back and then make a mistake

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Speaker 4: and have Kevin de Bruyne to put a perfect ball

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Speaker 4: behind them either.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I like the Unders.

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Speaker 4: I think the draw is interesting, Anthony, anything for you

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Speaker 4: City and at LETTI Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I mean City allowing point sixty six expected goals per

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Speaker 2: ninety and the prem this year Atletico Madrid point nine

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Speaker 2: expect the goals per ninety and Spain. The one thing

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Speaker 2: that that kind of gives me, Paul, I wish this

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Speaker 2: game we're at it let the in the first leg

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Speaker 2: and I would love the under a two and a

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Speaker 2: half at plus one ten, I do project two point

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Speaker 2: five to five goals, a little more than BJ, but

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Speaker 2: still enough to the point where at plus money I

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Speaker 2: don't hate the under two point five at all, so

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Speaker 2: it is a lean for me. Not sure that i'll

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Speaker 2: play it yet. I think stylistically, you guys pretty much

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Speaker 2: nailed on what I expect, but City may have to

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Speaker 2: be a little more aggressive given that they are the

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Speaker 2: home team. A draw is not quite good enough for them,

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Speaker 2: so you could see a more aggressive situation from them,

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Speaker 2: especially as we get later on in the match. So

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Speaker 2: maybe a first half under one isn't a bad idea.

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Speaker 2: I don't really see this being open in the beginning,

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Speaker 2: more likely to get zero than two goals, even though

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Speaker 2: that pushes more often than not, so that would be

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Speaker 2: where I would lean. But overall, no play for me

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Speaker 2: on this match.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's an interesting scheduling spot for City and the

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Speaker 4: team we'll talk about next. It's Liverpool their minus two

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Speaker 4: sixty five traveling to Portugal to take Benfica, who were

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Speaker 4: plus seven fifty. The draw here is plus four to

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Speaker 4: twenty five on the three way money line to advance

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Speaker 4: Benficas plus nine twenty Liverpool minus two thousand.

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Speaker 1: City and Liverpool.

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Speaker 4: Play a week from Sunday, which is the day we're

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Speaker 4: recording this April tenth. They'll play in a huge match

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Speaker 4: obviously in the Premier League to see who goes to

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Speaker 4: the top of the table.

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Speaker 1: For the run in.

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Speaker 4: So it's it's just a very strange scheduling spot for

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Speaker 4: both of these teams because there's a lot of pressure

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Speaker 4: on City to win the Champions League. They haven't done

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Speaker 4: it under Pep and there's gonna be a lot of

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Speaker 4: pressure on them at home. Whereas Liverpool they caught a

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Speaker 4: real big break with the draw going to Benfica, a

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Speaker 4: team that was pretty lucky to get out of the

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Speaker 4: round of sixteen against at i Ax. They earned that too,

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Speaker 4: two draw in the first leg and then we're very

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Speaker 4: lucky to win one nil and the second leg.

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Speaker 1: So getting with the City match.

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Speaker 4: Coming and they're not being all that I don't think

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Speaker 4: all that much pressure on Liverpool to get through this

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Speaker 4: one with like a huge result because it's on the road.

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Speaker 4: They'll trust themselves back at anfield to get the job

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Speaker 4: done against Benfica if it's you know, one one going

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Speaker 4: back or even one nil to either side. I think

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Speaker 4: that there's a little bit of value backing Benfica across

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Speaker 4: different markets, like getting eight seven plus seven fifty on

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Speaker 4: a home underdog in a Champions League quarterfinal. That's just

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Speaker 4: really tempting to me, and we've talked about it. Liverpool's

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Speaker 4: due for some defensive regression. They're expected goals numbers and

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Speaker 4: their actual goals numbers.

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Speaker 1: Are off, so I'll probably be on Benfica.

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Speaker 4: I mean, Liverpool beats me every week, so I wouldn't

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Speaker 4: blame anyone for just not giving me two cents on

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Speaker 4: this one. But that's where I've been looking at least, Anthony,

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Speaker 4: Liverpool Benfica. What are your thoughts?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll agree, I'll agree a little bit with a

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Speaker 2: lean towards Benfica a plus one and a half. I

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Speaker 2: think you mentioned the defensive regression. Two chances for Watford

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Speaker 2: one on one with the goalie both times good say

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Speaker 2: from Allison and then just a terrible, terrible miss another

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Speaker 2: loss at seven thirty am. For me, I think I'm

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Speaker 2: now up to twenty percent hit rate on the bets

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Speaker 2: at seven thirty am. I probably just sleep in.

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Speaker 1: But it's a funny game.

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Speaker 4: I just want to say, like it feels like when

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Speaker 4: you know how when when there's a scoring chance coming,

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Speaker 4: you can kind of it flashes in your head and

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Speaker 4: you're either really really confident that someone's going to score,

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Speaker 4: like you could see it going in for some reason

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Speaker 4: with Liverpool, with someone's coming down on Alison and I'm

187
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Speaker 4: just like, this is either going off the bar, over

188
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Speaker 4: the net or Allison's going to get.

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Speaker 1: A paw on it.

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Speaker 4: And I see it and it always comes to fruition anyway.

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Speaker 1: That's in aside.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think you're probably still scarred from watching that

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Speaker 2: League Cup final against Chelsea. But you know, when you

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Speaker 2: look at this Liverpool team, they weren't great in the

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Speaker 2: Watford match. I thought they kind of lacked the typical

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Speaker 2: Liverpool press. They weren't quite winning every fifty to fifty

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Speaker 2: like they normally do. They weren't dominating the possession. There

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Speaker 2: was a late penalty that kind of inflated the expected

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Speaker 2: goals and they were the better side, but it was

200
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Speaker 2: really like a point eight to point six kind of

201
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Speaker 2: game until you get that late penalty. So they weren't

202
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Speaker 2: that much better than Watford at home. Now this is,

203
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Speaker 2: of course, that was a bad spot. They just had

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Speaker 2: to grind out the win. Now they're on the row

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Speaker 2: in the Champions League. But you mentioned it, I don't

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Speaker 2: know that this is a great matchup for Liverpool necessarily

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Speaker 2: either Benfica showed themselves pretty well I thought at home

208
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Speaker 2: against I X. I understand they got pummeled on XG,

209
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Speaker 2: but a lot of those I X chances were blocked.

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Speaker 2: There was some great defending, and I know Benfica overall

211
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Speaker 2: was lucky. I actually hit the post once and they

212
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Speaker 2: missed one really bad sitter. But the ability for Liverpool

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Speaker 2: to get margin away from home, we've seen that in

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Speaker 2: the Champions League in past years hasn't been one of

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Speaker 2: the strengths of this team, so you know they would

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Speaker 2: take a one goal win. I do think I leaned

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Speaker 2: toward Benfica, but again the number is pretty close on

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Speaker 2: to what I have actually, so I'm not playing it.

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Speaker 4: Yes, I think it's gonna come down to if we

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Speaker 4: see that typical Liverpool steam before this match, and if

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Speaker 4: it does.

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Speaker 2: Get a two', that's that's gonna be a play. But

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Speaker 2: I don't think we'll see that. Maybe one in three quarters.

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Speaker 1: I would be interested, uh bja anything for you between. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I definitely lean towards Benefica.

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Speaker 3: I have Liverpool round minus point eighty, so they are

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Speaker 3: overvalued here on the road, and obviously it's the Champions League.

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Speaker 3: It's Champions at quarter finals. I understand that, but you

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Speaker 3: have to imagine one I is on the weekend against

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Speaker 3: Man City.

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Speaker 1: I mean you just have to. So could we get

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Speaker 1: a sleepy Liverpool team in Portugal? Yeah, sure we could.

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Speaker 1: And the interesting thing about Benefica, you know the XG

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Speaker 1: against i AX.

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Speaker 3: I know, if you watch the match, you're like, oh

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Speaker 3: my gosh, i AX just completely dominated, which they did.

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Speaker 3: But the final XG against i as they only over

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Speaker 3: the Agurgate only was plus point three. It was two

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Speaker 3: to one point seven in the first leg and point

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Speaker 3: four to one in the second leg, So not only

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Speaker 3: that dominant. And if you go through all of their

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Speaker 3: Champions Leagu's results and you remove Bayern Munich, which obviously

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Speaker 3: why would you do that for Liverpool, but just you know,

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Speaker 3: for the sake of the argument, you know, if you

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Speaker 3: remove Bayern Munich plus point eight, expect a gold differential

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Speaker 3: in every other Champions League match in total. So it's

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Speaker 3: one of those situations where is Benefica going to sit

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Speaker 3: back into four to four to two and just kind

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Speaker 3: of see this, try to see this out defensively and

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Speaker 3: look to counter like they did.

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Speaker 1: ZIX.

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Speaker 3: Probably we'll be able to do it, be able to

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Speaker 3: do it against Liverpool, I'd say maybe. I mean with

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Speaker 3: a defensive progression you guys mentioned it's possible, but definitely

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Speaker 3: leaning towards Benefica minus one twenty. But I'll be honest,

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Speaker 3: Man City thrashing Sporting Lisbon in Portugal five or in

257
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Speaker 3: five nothing has me scarred trying to met these Portuguese

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Speaker 3: teams kainst English teams. So I will ultimately be passing.

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Speaker 3: But if the number gets good enough, like plus one

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Speaker 3: and a half at even money, I might have to

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Speaker 3: fire on Benefica.

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Speaker 2: I'll be I'll be rooting for a City blowout in

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Speaker 2: a Liverpool loss, so we can get the best possible number.

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Speaker 2: A little look ahead to what I may be betting

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Speaker 2: on Sunday, I'm gonna be disagreeing with.

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Speaker 1: You, I think.

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Speaker 4: All right, let's talk about Wednesday's games now. Via Real

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Speaker 4: they're plus four fifty yellows of them you know, are

269
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Speaker 4: hosting Byron Munich minus one seventy.

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Speaker 1: On the road.

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Speaker 4: The draw is plus three thirty Byron minus twelve hundred

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Speaker 4: two advance via Riya coming back plus six eighty. After

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Speaker 4: a great run of form from the Yellow summary, they've

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Speaker 4: lost three from four with just one goal scored in

275
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Speaker 4: La Liga and the extreme numbers aren't that kind either.

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Speaker 4: It was a dip in defensive form for them after

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Speaker 4: a really impressive two leg showing against Juventus, and maybe

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Speaker 4: it was just like a little bit of a letdown.

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Speaker 4: They're not really in much of a race in La Liga,

280
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Speaker 4: but just that kind of dip in, especially on defense,

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Speaker 4: is not good when you're considering who their opponent is

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Speaker 4: coming to town. Byron with sixteen goals in their last

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Speaker 4: four matches in the Bundesliga. Still, I mean the number,

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Speaker 4: it's just the numbers, right, It's got to be via

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Speaker 4: Reel or nothing, right, BJ.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Ian Byron is overvalued here on the road.

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Speaker 3: Now, you mentioned Virel has not been a good form,

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Speaker 3: but they have the same stylistic play that Salzburg had,

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Speaker 3: which gave Byron muted a lot of trouble in the

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Speaker 3: first leg or away from home, except Vireal had definitely

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Speaker 3: has more attacking talent than Salzburg. Now Virial they completely

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Speaker 3: dominated Uventus over the two legs expecting goals was three

293
00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:03,079
Speaker 3: point four to one point six on aggregate.

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Speaker 1: Now this is a massive step up in competition.

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Speaker 3: And there is definitely a scenario where Byron just completely

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00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:09,720
Speaker 3: blows them out of the water and.

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Speaker 1: We look really stupid. But that's fine. I don't mind

298
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Speaker 1: looking stupid.

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Speaker 3: Bayern themselves, though you could say the last few matches

300
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Speaker 3: have been good, but there's been some questionable results as

301
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Speaker 3: of late. The loss of Bochum comes to mind, drawing

302
00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:23,720
Speaker 3: with Salzburg on the road and then drawing with Lebercousen

303
00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:26,400
Speaker 3: at home where they lost the XG battle. And you know,

304
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Speaker 3: if you're gonna give Bayern problems, you've got to be

305
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Speaker 3: able to play through their high press and you got

306
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Speaker 3: to be able to press them back effectively, which Vrel

307
00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:33,880
Speaker 3: is capable of doing.

308
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Speaker 1: I mean you and I amory side.

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Speaker 3: Is third and pass per defensive action, spinning fourth and

310
00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:40,760
Speaker 3: offensive pass per defensive action. They also did a fantastic

311
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Speaker 3: job against the event end of preventing them from getting

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Speaker 3: inside the penalty area only thirty one touches in the

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Speaker 3: eighteen yard box over the two legs, which is also

314
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Speaker 3: something you really have to prevent Byron from doing because

315
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Speaker 3: they're averaging around forty one touches in the penalty in

316
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Speaker 3: the Bundesliga this year.

317
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Speaker 1: So I mean even so I Viial is a tad

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Speaker 1: undervalued here.

319
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Speaker 3: I mean I have Byron as an even money favorite

320
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Speaker 3: on the road in Spain because you know, buy you

321
00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:07,640
Speaker 3: a way for coefficient. Spain is twenty one points higher

322
00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:10,480
Speaker 3: in the rankings than the Bundesliga, just because the competition

323
00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:12,599
Speaker 3: is a lot better. Spanish teams make it deeper in

324
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Speaker 3: these type of European competitions, so breal plus one at

325
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Speaker 3: minus one ten. I do believe hesten Dog and I

326
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Speaker 3: think they'll be able to get a result here at

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Speaker 3: home in the first leg.

328
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Speaker 4: Anthony, we sung this team's praise as via real before

329
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Speaker 4: the Juventus tie. We looked good for that one. They advance.

330
00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:33,240
Speaker 4: They're still alive. Maybe they're within a shout of cashing

331
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Speaker 4: the miracle ticket for us. But it does feel a

332
00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:39,800
Speaker 4: little different against Byron here. But you're still saying that

333
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Speaker 4: you're with me in BJ right I am.

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Speaker 2: You know a funny story our editor, Jeremy Pond, our

335
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Speaker 2: soccer editor. He asked me which game I want and

336
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Speaker 2: I told him right off the jump, I said, I

337
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Speaker 2: want Buyern Vireal. I'll have the preview for this game

338
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Speaker 2: on the Action Network, And he said, I don't even

339
00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:56,160
Speaker 2: think I need to ask. I know what side you're on,

340
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Speaker 2: and I said, yep, you guessed it, the Yellow submarine.

341
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Speaker 2: I'm on M plus one here. I don't hate a

342
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Speaker 2: shot to advance. I think there's a path where everything

343
00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:10,280
Speaker 2: goes really wrong for Byron, and if it were to happen,

344
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Speaker 2: I think v Real does fit the profile of a

345
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Speaker 2: team who could cause that. Of course, the number is steep.

346
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Speaker 2: I think they're plus four to sixty last time I

347
00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:20,240
Speaker 2: checked to advance. But Byron struggles with teams and Bja

348
00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:24,120
Speaker 2: mentioned this who can cause high turnovers and then what

349
00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:26,800
Speaker 2: happens is they get caught very much open at the

350
00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:30,520
Speaker 2: back and it becomes a counter attack party. It's not

351
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Speaker 2: that different from what happened to United when they played

352
00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:35,840
Speaker 2: Virial earlier this year. Obviously Byron is a lot better.

353
00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:38,760
Speaker 2: They don't have quite those issues. But the stylistic issue

354
00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:41,000
Speaker 2: of if you press this team high and can win

355
00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:43,200
Speaker 2: it high, you can have a lot of success. That's

356
00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:45,920
Speaker 2: very real. And I do expect VI Rial to very

357
00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:47,720
Speaker 2: much parked the bus on the road, but I don't

358
00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:49,320
Speaker 2: think they're going to do that in this lag at home.

359
00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:54,640
Speaker 2: They can't really given those situations. So Byron they did

360
00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:58,440
Speaker 2: get Garetzka back, which I think is a pretty big development,

361
00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:00,360
Speaker 2: and I think that'll be really interesting to mind how

362
00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:02,880
Speaker 2: their defense looks. I didn't get a chance to watch

363
00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:05,120
Speaker 2: the Freiburg match, but I think that, you know, I

364
00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:09,240
Speaker 2: may be watching that closely. Watch how they look out

365
00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:12,600
Speaker 2: of possession when they lose it and if Gretzka is

366
00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:16,360
Speaker 2: helping Kimmick prevent them from getting run right up the

367
00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:19,320
Speaker 2: up the middle of the pitch there. So that's one

368
00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:22,680
Speaker 2: inching angle the other angle from a numerical standpoint, I

369
00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:24,440
Speaker 2: don't hate the both teams to score over two and

370
00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:26,640
Speaker 2: a half, but I do think Virial will get on

371
00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:28,640
Speaker 2: the board. And if you're worried about Bayern running away

372
00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:31,960
Speaker 2: with this, I do think that's even like a small

373
00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:35,720
Speaker 2: hedge off of it. Because since January first, Viril has

374
00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:41,000
Speaker 2: one point six y nine expected goals per ninety in Spain,

375
00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:43,840
Speaker 2: they've only scored about one point two. They've also only

376
00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:46,400
Speaker 2: scored one goal in their last four matches. I think

377
00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:48,520
Speaker 2: the total is a little low here, and the defense

378
00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,600
Speaker 2: has been pretty lucky too. That's the one thing here,

379
00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:53,200
Speaker 2: you know, they've conceded about one point two expected goals

380
00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:56,760
Speaker 2: per ninety and they've managed to only concede about point

381
00:16:56,800 --> 00:16:58,320
Speaker 2: eight off of that, so their defense has.

382
00:16:58,240 --> 00:16:59,000
Speaker 1: Been running a bit hot.

383
00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:01,680
Speaker 2: Kind of saw that they second leg, they probably deserved

384
00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:05,800
Speaker 2: a goal there, But overall Vil coming into this in

385
00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:08,360
Speaker 2: terrible form. I don't really mind that because it's it's

386
00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:10,680
Speaker 2: four games where they have one goal and they have

387
00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:14,200
Speaker 2: three losses, whereas you know in the in between that

388
00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:17,120
Speaker 2: they also did smash eventus, so I'm not too worried

389
00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:19,000
Speaker 2: about the tip and form. I think I might end

390
00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:20,600
Speaker 2: up playing some both teams to score in over two

391
00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:22,640
Speaker 2: and a half as well, but I'm on Virial plus

392
00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:24,680
Speaker 2: one as my best bet for this game.

393
00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:27,479
Speaker 4: There are three teams from England, three teams from Spain

394
00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:30,880
Speaker 4: in the quarterfinals, and we'll wrap up with a team

395
00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:33,840
Speaker 4: from England Chelsea there plus one fifteen at home hosting

396
00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:37,000
Speaker 4: Real Madrid plus two fifty. The draw here is plus

397
00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:40,600
Speaker 4: two forty five to advance Chelsea minus one thirty four

398
00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:43,760
Speaker 4: Madrid plus one oh eight. At the moment, this is

399
00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:47,960
Speaker 4: the only where I should say this is clearly the

400
00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:51,520
Speaker 4: toughest one to call. Bookmakers are telling us that it's

401
00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:54,920
Speaker 4: nearly a coin flip, but I do think that there

402
00:17:55,119 --> 00:18:00,360
Speaker 4: is some value here. And surprisingly, when when this draw

403
00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:03,040
Speaker 4: got announced, I was thinking that I'm going to be

404
00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:06,040
Speaker 4: all over Real Madrid. I thought Chelsea would be inflated

405
00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:09,160
Speaker 4: because they were getting results, but they studied the ship

406
00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:13,560
Speaker 4: and they had one blip here and it was yesterday.

407
00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:16,440
Speaker 4: We're recording this on Sunday, and it was yesterday again

408
00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:18,840
Speaker 4: on Saturday against Brentford, and I was kind of happy

409
00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:21,960
Speaker 4: it happened because they shipped four goals to Brentford after

410
00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:26,040
Speaker 4: a really good run of defensive play, and we're getting

411
00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:27,399
Speaker 4: a little bit of a better number now on the

412
00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:29,639
Speaker 4: Blues at home plus one fifteen. I'm all over it.

413
00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:30,840
Speaker 1: Real Madrid.

414
00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:34,280
Speaker 4: They've been beating teams in La Liga that they should beat,

415
00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:38,040
Speaker 4: but they got run off the park by Barcelona. They deserved,

416
00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:40,320
Speaker 4: I think you can say they deserved to beat PSG.

417
00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:41,400
Speaker 1: They weren't that good.

418
00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:43,440
Speaker 4: They were definitely not at the races in the first leg,

419
00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:45,399
Speaker 4: and then they showed up in the second half and

420
00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:47,600
Speaker 4: kind of did what Real Madrid has been famous for doing,

421
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:51,119
Speaker 4: which is hanging around, getting a couple moments of magic

422
00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:53,719
Speaker 4: and being clinical, and that's what they do. They went

423
00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:58,119
Speaker 4: three to one against PSG. I just don't think Chelsea

424
00:18:58,320 --> 00:18:59,840
Speaker 4: is the type of team that will allow them to.

425
00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:02,879
Speaker 4: They just won't keep the door open. Thomas Dukell is

426
00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:06,479
Speaker 4: not going to let Real Madrid hang around, and if

427
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,440
Speaker 4: he does, the defense should be tighter. So I'm on

428
00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:12,480
Speaker 4: Chelsea plus one fifteen here and I like him a

429
00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:15,040
Speaker 4: little bit. I think too advance. I'd much rather play

430
00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:17,119
Speaker 4: the plus one fifteen though, BJ. What about you?

431
00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:18,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you on Chelsea.

432
00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:21,399
Speaker 3: So I'm very interesting to see what Real Madrid is

433
00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:23,840
Speaker 3: going to do here because the first leg against PSG,

434
00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:26,080
Speaker 3: where they just basically said, you know what, We're just

435
00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:28,440
Speaker 3: gonna sit back and play two low blocks and just

436
00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:30,920
Speaker 3: look to see if we can hit PSG on the counter,

437
00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:33,000
Speaker 3: did not work at all, and they really should have

438
00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:36,600
Speaker 3: conceded more than one goal. I mean in that, I

439
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:39,520
Speaker 3: mean they were so sloppy in transition offense and then

440
00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:42,400
Speaker 3: they couldn't get anything going. They got smothered by PSG's

441
00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,280
Speaker 3: high press. So what do you think Chelsea's going to

442
00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:46,920
Speaker 3: do if they decide to do that. I mean, Chelsea's

443
00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:48,439
Speaker 3: is going to smother them. They're going to keep him

444
00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:50,840
Speaker 3: in the final third. Now, I understand a lot has

445
00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:53,080
Speaker 3: changed over year. Real Madrid has a new manager, but

446
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,360
Speaker 3: these two teams did meet in semi finals last year

447
00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,480
Speaker 3: and Chelsea just absolutely demolished Real Madrid four point three

448
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,320
Speaker 3: expected goals two point six over the two legs. The

449
00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:04,840
Speaker 3: second leggatge Stamford Bridge was especially a big disaster for

450
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:08,920
Speaker 3: Real Madrid. Chelsea put up around three expected goals Real

451
00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:11,960
Speaker 3: madenerally in seven shots seven touches in the penalty area.

452
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:14,520
Speaker 1: It's if something like that.

453
00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:17,400
Speaker 3: Happens again, which is entirely possible because what we saw

454
00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:21,359
Speaker 3: from what we saw with Barcelona against Real Madrid, they

455
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,200
Speaker 3: can be thrashed, especially a really good team, which PSG

456
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:25,479
Speaker 3: also did at them in the first leg.

457
00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:27,800
Speaker 1: So another big thing for Chelsea.

458
00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:30,560
Speaker 3: They're getting Reece James back in the lineup, which is

459
00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:33,160
Speaker 3: massive for twoche three four to two one system. Having

460
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:35,159
Speaker 3: a wing back that has his type of pace and

461
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:37,840
Speaker 3: able to progress the ball up the pitch is huge

462
00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:41,119
Speaker 3: for them from projection standpoint. What's funny is if you

463
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 3: look at these both these teams actual goal differential and

464
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:46,840
Speaker 3: expected gold differential, they're actually pretty much even. They're both

465
00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:50,800
Speaker 3: around plus thirty five actual and plus twenty one expected.

466
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:55,000
Speaker 3: So if you give Chelsea the bump for uaight coefficients

467
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:58,000
Speaker 3: for England being better than Spain plus the home field advantage.

468
00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:00,680
Speaker 3: I do believe that you're getting a little bit of

469
00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,680
Speaker 3: value here on the Blues at home to win the

470
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:05,479
Speaker 3: first leg. So I have them projected at minus one

471
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:08,240
Speaker 3: twenty two. So at plus one fifteen, I think that

472
00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 3: has some good value here in the first leg at

473
00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:11,400
Speaker 3: Stamford Bridge.

474
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:15,159
Speaker 4: I think the strategy here from Real madridis is going

475
00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:19,399
Speaker 4: to be apparent right away. Carlo Ancelotti is for a

476
00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:21,960
Speaker 4: lot of things. He's he's a pragmatist, and he's someone

477
00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:24,920
Speaker 4: who has no problem kind of like playing the long game.

478
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:27,639
Speaker 4: We saw that, we've seen that a lot of his stops,

479
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:29,680
Speaker 4: and I want to be surprised if his plan is,

480
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:33,119
Speaker 4: like we just said, let's stick in this tie as

481
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:35,560
Speaker 4: long as we can get it back to the Burnabout

482
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:37,920
Speaker 4: and try to take care of business there. But I

483
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 4: just I just don't think that really profiles as a

484
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:45,040
Speaker 4: decent strategy against this Chelsea team. So that's where I'm going.

485
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:46,720
Speaker 4: Anthony three for three on.

486
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 2: The Blues and when's the last time I met Chelsea?

487
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:52,919
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean that's where I I genuinely was when

488
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:54,639
Speaker 4: I saw this draw came out, I was like, Okay,

489
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 4: I think the two as like Anthony and I will

490
00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:58,920
Speaker 4: probably be on Real Madrid BJ.

491
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:02,080
Speaker 1: I don't know, but I mean it's moved since the

492
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 1: Brentford match.

493
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 2: I mean we.

494
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:05,200
Speaker 1: Talked.

495
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:08,119
Speaker 3: We talked last Sunday, I believe, and we were like, oh,

496
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,199
Speaker 3: Chelsea's I think they were either even money or.

497
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 1: Plus one o five.

498
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have a plus plus one o seven is

499
00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:16,920
Speaker 3: what I have, and since the Brentford match they've moved

500
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:17,879
Speaker 3: to plus one fifteen.

501
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:21,159
Speaker 4: So with every goal that Brentford matches, it was like,

502
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 4: all right, more more more more so a good situation

503
00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 4: for for the value hunters out there.

504
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:29,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just looked. I have not bet Chelsea since

505
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:32,879
Speaker 2: the Juventus match that they played at home in the

506
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:34,680
Speaker 2: Champions League, and I know BJA was also over that.

507
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 2: That was one of his games of the year, and

508
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 2: I think this is a similar situation. Actually, first, before

509
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:41,800
Speaker 2: I get to that, football is kind of poetic in

510
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 2: a way. Soccer last year April third, so that was

511
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 2: almost a year to the date Chelsea played against West Brom.

512
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 2: Remember they were on that upsurde defensive run.

513
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 1: They lost five to two.

514
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 2: Everyone's like Chelsea's broken, They're done, They're they're finished. And

515
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:00,639
Speaker 2: then when happened, you know, three days later they went

516
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 2: to Porto and thrashed them too now in the Champions

517
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 2: League and then went on to win said league later

518
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 2: on that year. It's one game, and we talked about this.

519
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 2: Brentford dominated them the first leg, dominated them the second

520
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 2: time they played them as well. There were some great

521
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:18,120
Speaker 2: goals from the Bees, without a doubt, they played extremely well.

522
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:20,399
Speaker 2: I think that was more a credit to Brentford than

523
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:24,320
Speaker 2: anything else, who finally took their chances in a game

524
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:26,199
Speaker 2: against a big side where they were brave and they

525
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:31,600
Speaker 2: deserved and sleep the sleep was Chelsea very sleep style break.

526
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 4: With this coming up on a couple of days later,

527
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:35,960
Speaker 4: a lot of excuses to be made for I think

528
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 4: this Brentford match and.

529
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,560
Speaker 2: They played it back four, which you know, people on

530
00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 2: Twitter were bantering Antonio Rudiger for after the game, saying

531
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:45,240
Speaker 2: he's a back three merchant. He's not that great of

532
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 2: a center back, you know. I think people are just

533
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 2: there's a little bit of an overreaction in the market.

534
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:49,239
Speaker 4: Here.

535
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:51,879
Speaker 2: The line for them to advance drop from minus one

536
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 2: twenty five to minus one to fifteen. I'm glad I

537
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 2: didn't bet that one yet because I would have got

538
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 2: a bad number there too. I'm on Chelsea both moneyline

539
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 2: in this game, and I have more on or will

540
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:05,520
Speaker 2: have more on the minus one fifteen to advance. Real

541
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:09,640
Speaker 2: Madrid has now played their last four games against really

542
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 2: good opponents who are some of the better teams across Europe. Right,

543
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:15,919
Speaker 2: Real Madrid played PSG in the first leg. We all

544
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 2: watched it. They got embarrassed. They should have lost that

545
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 2: game by multiple goals. XG was two point six to

546
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 2: point three. They played the second leg and I know

547
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:25,359
Speaker 2: they had this absurd comeback and they scored three goals

548
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,359
Speaker 2: and everybody was like, oh, classic vintage Real Madrid. But

549
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 2: that just felt more like a collapse. I mean the

550
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 2: first half PSG had two goals disallowed. That we're very

551
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 2: razor thin. I mean we were talking very fine margins

552
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:43,159
Speaker 2: from an embarrassing defeat at the Bernabau for Real Madrid,

553
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 2: where PSG could have been up two or three goals

554
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 2: very easily, and then what happens. Benzema has a great moment.

555
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 2: PSG's back line don't a ruma falls apart. They're just

556
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 2: passing the ball to Real Madrid. I don't expect Chelsea

557
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 2: to make those kind of defensive mistakes, and BJ mentioned

558
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 2: it four point three to point six. What's changed since then?

559
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 2: Chelsea's a very similar team. I think they're a little worse,

560
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 2: not quite playing with the same level of defensive solidity.

561
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 2: They're a little bit weaker defensively, but overall they're pretty

562
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 2: similar and Real Madrid I think might be worse. I

563
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 2: understand Real Madrid is gonna win La Liga, but they

564
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 2: got embarrassed trucked by Barsa. That was an awful loss,

565
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 2: and then you even go back to their group stage,

566
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:26,480
Speaker 2: they weren't that good in that either. I mean they

567
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:28,640
Speaker 2: got out played by Inter Milan badly in the first

568
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:32,640
Speaker 2: leg of that match, and then they were pretty mediocre

569
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:34,920
Speaker 2: in the second lef They did win it, but it

570
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:38,119
Speaker 2: was an inter controlled the game once again. So this

571
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 2: Real Madrid team has not really shined against quality opponents

572
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:45,120
Speaker 2: in a long time. Besides a fifteen minute stretch against

573
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:47,920
Speaker 2: PSG that PSG collapsed, and we could even go back

574
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:50,399
Speaker 2: to the last two games they played in Laaliga. They

575
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 2: conceded one point four xg to Majorca MICUs is on

576
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 2: the worst attacks in the league, and then they play

577
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:59,959
Speaker 2: Cult of Ego. They get three penalties in the game

578
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 2: that accounts for two and a half of their two

579
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:05,360
Speaker 2: point nine expected goals, and they otherwise get pretty well

580
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:09,400
Speaker 2: outplayed by by Vigo. So I really I was hoping

581
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 2: to fade both Chelsea and Real Madrid in this leg,

582
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 2: in this in this quarter final round, but there's differing levels.

583
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 2: Do how much each team I think is a little

584
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:22,359
Speaker 2: overvalue in the market, and Real Madrid there are some

585
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 2: very scary signs here and I've been pretty much hammer

586
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 2: fading them the last month and a half, so I'm

587
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 2: gonna keep doing it. So I'm ryan with Chelsea.

588
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, just to put your point about last year, So

589
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 1: Real Madrid this year around.

590
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:36,120
Speaker 3: A plus plus seven point one XG differential per ninety

591
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 3: minutes last season in La Liga points sixty six, so

592
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 3: they're basically close to similar to the exact same team

593
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 3: in terms of the underlying metrics.

594
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 1: They've just drastically overformed this season.

595
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's it's Benzema, right, benz has been

596
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 2: incredible and everybody's gonna say Benzim Benzema, Benzema. Benzima played

597
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 2: both legs. He had a great goal in the first

598
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:57,320
Speaker 2: one last year and then the second. It doesn't matter.

599
00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 2: It's one player. I'm not gonna let one player who

600
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 2: can score a goal or two change what is a

601
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 2: much better Chelsea team.

602
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 3: If you can't get any shots off like you did

603
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 3: against Brent against PSG, then it doesn't matter who you

604
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:09,240
Speaker 3: have on top.

605
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I just don't see Chelsea making those same

606
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 2: mistakes that Rea that PSG did. That was a collapse.

607
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 4: And if he does beat you on his own, you

608
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:18,400
Speaker 4: tip your cap and you bet against him.

609
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 2: Do they get right?

610
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 3: All?

611
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 4: Right?

612
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 2: To the semis? I mean again, it's like last year, right,

613
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 2: they got an overrated Liverpool team who was kind of

614
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 2: struggling and who didn't really match up well because of

615
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 2: their issues and how much they press getting beat in behind.

616
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 2: I don't see that happening here in this quarterfinal.

617
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 4: All right, Let's let's stay in Europe before we get

618
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 4: to the relegation six pointer on Wednesday and go through

619
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 4: a europe Elite real quick. There is a clear headliner there.

620
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:49,920
Speaker 4: It's RB Leipzig and Adalanta. It's Thursday twelve forty five

621
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:54,160
Speaker 4: kickoff BJ Anthony both on the same side. Here, we'll

622
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 4: start with Anthony talk about why you like Ladilla.

623
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, they win Fromleipzig on the weekend, dominated Dortmann on

624
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:06,680
Speaker 2: the counter. I think they were pretty impressive, but kind

625
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 2: of highlights a statistic that I was looking at prior

626
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 2: to the match that almost kept me off Leipzig and

627
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:15,240
Speaker 2: then and something that I'm now a little concerned with

628
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 2: them is that they're just running ridiculously hot under Tedesco,

629
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 2: and I understand the new manager bump, and you know,

630
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 2: they're not as open at the back. They are better

631
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 2: defensively marginally, they're conceding a little bit less in terms

632
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 2: of big scoring chances, but they are now plus point

633
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 2: four extra difference per ninety since January first at even

634
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 2: strength in the Bundesliga. But their actual goal difference per

635
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,959
Speaker 2: ninety is plus one point three, So and you look

636
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 2: at the defensive numbers too, they are overdue to concede

637
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 2: a little bit. Buying Low and Atlanta. I mean, this

638
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 2: team was overperforming a lot the last few years and

639
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 2: they've definitely regressed down to kind of the Europa League

640
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 2: places in Italy. But they have just recently dominated Leberkusen

641
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 2: and that game wasn't. Neither of those legs were really competitive.

642
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 2: Atlanta dominant in the first leg and then pretty much

643
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 2: just sat there and let Leverkusen try to beat them,

644
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 2: and they couldn't in the second leg, and then they

645
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 2: got a late gold a counter. I was all over

646
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 2: to Atlanta in the first matchup against the Bundesliga side.

647
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 2: I'm grabbing them again here. Leipzig's defense against Socia Dodd

648
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 2: showed some weaknesses earlier in this competition in around a

649
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 2: thirty two, so I'm taking at Alanta plus a half.

650
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 2: I show a little bit of value on them too,

651
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 2: which is the main reason I'm betting them here. I

652
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:35,680
Speaker 2: do only have Leipzig projected at plus one twenty five,

653
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:38,640
Speaker 2: so at minus one point fifteen, I'm going to take

654
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 2: Atlanta to get a point or get a draw at

655
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 2: least and then take it home and then we'll see

656
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 2: what the number is in the second leg.

657
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:50,160
Speaker 4: And BJ you're sticking with Lada as well.

658
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, Anthony, you mentioned it. Just Leipzig just

659
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:57,840
Speaker 3: running ridiculously hot. They're on nine match unbeaten streak. In

660
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 3: those nine matches, they have scored twenty six goals off

661
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 3: of thirteen point four expected goals. I mean, it's insane

662
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 3: how hot they've been running in Anthony mentioned this is

663
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 3: a perfect.

664
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 1: Sell high or by low sell high spot.

665
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:10,920
Speaker 3: I don't a lot to just lost three to one

666
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 3: this past weekend a Napoli, but they're actually pretty unlucky

667
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 3: to lose that. They're pretty expected goals is pretty even.

668
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 3: They outshot Napole nineteen to six, so could get some

669
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 3: positive aggression coming back here for aut Alan ten that

670
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 3: stylistically out a lot to present a lot of problems

671
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:28,760
Speaker 3: I think for Rby Leipsig, because if you're going to

672
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 3: beat Arby Lileipsig, first off, you have to be able

673
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 3: to effectively play through pressure and then press them back.

674
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 3: That's basically how you beat German teams have You got

675
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 3: to be able to handle the press, play through it

676
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 3: out a loan to checks both those boxes there second

677
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 3: and passes per defensive action italy fifth and offensive passes

678
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:46,720
Speaker 3: per defensive action. And secondly, you got to be able

679
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 3: to prevent and create big scoring chances against Leipzig out

680
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 3: a lot to can do both those that are averaging

681
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 3: around one point four big scoring chances per match, allowing

682
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 3: under one per match. Additionally, these two teams are essentially

683
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 3: dead even, and in terms of expected goal differential for

684
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:06,120
Speaker 3: the year, Leipsig plus point six xg differential per ninety

685
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 3: Atlanta plus point five to three. And when you take

686
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:11,719
Speaker 3: into account per way coefficients that Italy and Germany are

687
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 3: essentially even in terms of league strength, that this Lipzig

688
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 3: teams maybe is a little tad over valued here at home.

689
00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 1: So I agree with Anthony.

690
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 3: I have Leipzig at plus one forty seven, so I

691
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 3: do love the value on Adelanta plus half a goal

692
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 3: at minus one five.

693
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:27,240
Speaker 4: All right, real quick, right back to you BJ any

694
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 4: other Europa League ones you want to talk about, Yeah.

695
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 3: How about we just ride keep riding the Barcelona train

696
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 3: minus one forty on the road against Frankfurt. I mean,

697
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 3: I could go into detail about all the things that

698
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 3: Shabby has has done to improve, but I mean plus

699
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:44,400
Speaker 3: one point six seven xg differential per ninety minutes under Shavy,

700
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 3: that is elite in Europe.

701
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 1: That is one of the best. I believe during that

702
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 1: whole entire timeframe.

703
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 3: Since February seventeenth, Barcelona twenty four expected goals four five

704
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 3: point eight against and they've been playing they have been

705
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,240
Speaker 3: playing upcakes and that run either. That's two matches against Napoli,

706
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 3: a match against Real Madrid, Athletic Kabibau, and then Symbia

707
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 3: this past weekend.

708
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 1: Frankfurt. They've overformed TAB.

709
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,720
Speaker 3: This season plus one actual gold differential but a minus

710
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 3: five point one expected gold differential. But they have really

711
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 3: struggled versus the top four teams in Germany minus eight

712
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 3: point four expected gold differential in seven matches versus Bayern, Munich, Dortmund, Arbiy,

713
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 3: Leipsig and Leverkustin.

714
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 1: So I have Barcelona projected.

715
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 3: At minus one seventy nine on the road in Frankfurt,

716
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 3: so at minus one forty to win the first leg

717
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:34,480
Speaker 3: in Germany. I think there's some value on Shavi's boys

718
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 3: to continue staying red hot.

719
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 4: All right, Anthony, what about you?

720
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 2: Crazy enough? Frankfort actually beat Byron and drew Leipzig twice,

721
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 2: I think so they've been and then had a two

722
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:46,640
Speaker 2: zero lead against dortmun that they threw away. So that's

723
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 2: they've been a very interesting team, bad favorite for sure.

724
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 2: I lean toward Barsa as well. I just think the

725
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 2: number is a little bit expensive on the road. I'm

726
00:32:57,080 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 2: only make it minus one twenty, so I didn't play that,

727
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 2: but I did play some lyon plus a half. Going

728
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 2: against this west Ham team, this will be the first

729
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 2: time of multiple times in the next month. I'm going

730
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 2: against west Ham. Been looking for the spot. We'll talk

731
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 2: about Everton in a second. It's kind of a good segue.

732
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 2: I was not impressed by west Ham's performance today. I

733
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 2: thought they were very mediocre. They only had seven shots

734
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 2: in like the first seventy minutes, and then one defensive

735
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 2: breakdown from Everton leads to the winning goal and then

736
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 2: the red card happens the game is over. But overall

737
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 2: I thought Everton played relatively even with west Ham and

738
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:35,720
Speaker 2: you can see the free kick goal. This attack just

739
00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 2: is not producing at the level that I would expect

740
00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 2: to produce to overcome their defensive general defensive deficiencies they

741
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:45,240
Speaker 2: do have when you compare them to the rest of

742
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 2: the top six in England. So Leon has played a

743
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 2: lot better in the last two months and Nomalley has

744
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 2: been a welcome addition to the side, and I think

745
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 2: they've been more solid in the midfield with him. They've

746
00:33:56,880 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 2: replaced sche Maris really well. So I'm buying this Leon

747
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:03,600
Speaker 2: team now and I faded them last round against Porto

748
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 2: and they they they got through. But I do think

749
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 2: I'm gonna buy in here at plus a half, at

750
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 2: least in the first Like I don't really like Leonner

751
00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 2: as a favorite if they're at home, but as a

752
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:14,719
Speaker 2: dog to get a draw here, I think they're a good,

753
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:18,320
Speaker 2: good value right now for the moment you evolved.

754
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 1: Wait, wait before you start, Michael.

755
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 3: If anybody is out there sitting at their desk, or

756
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 3: if they're like debating whether they need to go to

757
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 3: the bathroom, do it now, because you're gonna be locked

758
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:28,839
Speaker 3: You're gonna need to be locked in for the next

759
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:29,840
Speaker 3: thirty to forty minutes.

760
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:33,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, the moment everyone's been waiting for.

761
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 2: I don't have a ton on this pervasially, which is

762
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 2: kind of funny.

763
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:38,719
Speaker 1: This is this is like a therapy session. We got

764
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 1: to talk to Michael off the ledge.

765
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 4: Wednesday afternoon at two thirty pm Eastern time. I believe

766
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:48,240
Speaker 4: it is Burnley at home plus one sixty hosting Everden

767
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 4: plus one ninety five. The draw is plus two twenty

768
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 4: is big a relegation six pointers. They will be probably

769
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 4: the season. Let's go through the odds right now. Everytten

770
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 4: is plus one eighty f five to be relegated. Burnley

771
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:05,920
Speaker 4: minus two hundred Everdon in seventeenth place, So the final

772
00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:08,919
Speaker 4: safe spot in the table right now twenty five points

773
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 4: from twenty eight games played, right below them is Watford

774
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:14,720
Speaker 4: their minus six fifty be relegated because they have played

775
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 4: more games of both burn two more games at both

776
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 4: Burnley evident they're twenty two points from thirty so three

777
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:23,479
Speaker 4: back of Everden. Burnley twenty one game points from twenty

778
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:26,919
Speaker 4: eight played, four points back Everdent a chance to claw

779
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 4: themselves within one, and they have a much easier schedule

780
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 4: down the stretch than the Toffees do. Not even worth

781
00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 4: getting into Norwich anymore.

782
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 1: So those are the stakes. But you can't really look too.

783
00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 4: Much into Burnley's match over the weekend. They played man City.

784
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 4: They lost to man City. They barely made a pip squeak.

785
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,719
Speaker 4: I think they had points zero zero six expected goals

786
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:52,759
Speaker 4: against the citizens Everdence. I think you can, and there's

787
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:54,319
Speaker 4: a bunch of different reasons why I thought they were

788
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 4: actually decent. The expected goals weren't didn't show that any

789
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 4: like they were, But I think that the numbers kind

790
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 4: of lie a little bit. They've Everden made three big

791
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 4: mistakes they were punished with all three of them won

792
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:07,840
Speaker 4: with a red card, two with goals.

793
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:09,320
Speaker 1: They also.

794
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 4: They were set to give Nathan Patterson, a Scottish fullback

795
00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:16,800
Speaker 4: who's been looking pretty good for Rangers and then for Scotland,

796
00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 4: his Premier League debut. He rolled his ankle and is

797
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 4: out for a while yesterday, so he's out.

798
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 1: For this match.

799
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:24,520
Speaker 4: And then Donny van deer Bak was supposed to be

800
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 4: in the center of the midfield with Abdulaij de Corey.

801
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 4: He gets hurt and warm ups and comes Mason Holgate

802
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:33,279
Speaker 4: and then Michael King gets a red card. So for

803
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:36,840
Speaker 4: this Burnley match, Everden's going to be without center backs

804
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 4: yurry Me and Michael Kaine. They're gonna be without fullbacks

805
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:44,359
Speaker 4: Nathan Patterson and likely Seamus Coleman who missed the match

806
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 4: against west Ham. They'll be without center midfielders Alan Fabian

807
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:51,880
Speaker 4: dell Andre Gomez and Donnie van deer Bake. And they

808
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 4: will be without their best set piece taker, that's Andres Townsend.

809
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:58,719
Speaker 4: So two center backs, two fullbacks for center midfielders and

810
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:02,480
Speaker 4: a winger all going to be out for this one.

811
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:05,399
Speaker 4: It's not looking good and That's why I don't think

812
00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 4: that Frank Lampard deserves as much stick as he's been

813
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:12,320
Speaker 4: getting because the team he's inherited was already bad and

814
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 4: it's just gotten worse through injuries. Not being said, I

815
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 4: think this number is going to get out of control

816
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 4: on Everdent because of all the things that are going

817
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:21,919
Speaker 4: They're plus one ninety five right now. They were plus

818
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 4: one eighty I think before the west Ham game. So

819
00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 4: this number is just going to continue to tick up

820
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 4: and there's going to be no choice but to back

821
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:33,560
Speaker 4: the Toafees at two to one are better, all right,

822
00:37:33,600 --> 00:37:34,920
Speaker 4: I'm it Just turn it over to you right now.

823
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:35,239
Speaker 1: BJ.

824
00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 3: I still think Everton is fine a four point lead

825
00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:41,120
Speaker 3: on Burnley. Obviously, if Burnley wins here things change a

826
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:44,120
Speaker 3: little bit. But Everton has way too much talent to

827
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 3: continue to play this bad And but what has Burnley

828
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:49,320
Speaker 3: shown us over the last five matches that shows that

829
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:52,960
Speaker 3: they should be able to actually to overtake Everton. I

830
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:55,760
Speaker 3: mean they have four straight losses where they haven't scored

831
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 3: and they've gotten pretty much dominated by Lester, Chelsea, Brentford

832
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:01,839
Speaker 3: and Mansion. Now I understand Everton's not to the level

833
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:06,080
Speaker 3: of those four teams, but specifically for this match, I

834
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:07,400
Speaker 3: actually kind of like the over two and a half

835
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:09,360
Speaker 3: goals of plus one twenty five. With all the injuries,

836
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:12,919
Speaker 3: not only to Everton defensively, they're basically without their only

837
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:16,279
Speaker 3: two center backs on their entire roster, but Ben me

838
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:19,759
Speaker 3: and Nathan Collins are out for Burnley, so they're going

839
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:21,360
Speaker 3: to be finn at the back as well. So I

840
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 3: think we're going to see a lot of chances actually

841
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:27,280
Speaker 3: being created at both ends. Again, Everton is too talented

842
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:29,240
Speaker 3: right now, and if you look at the underlying metrics,

843
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 3: it's really unfair that they're even in this point. I mean,

844
00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:34,240
Speaker 3: only a minus nine point six expect a gold differential

845
00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 3: in the season given all of not only all the

846
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 3: injuries they sustained, the managerial change, just all of the

847
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 3: crap that has happened to Everton, and they're still fourteenth

848
00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 3: and expected gold differential. Some positive regression has to hit

849
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:47,960
Speaker 3: them at some point. You gotta remember, I mean they

850
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 3: were without Dominie Calvert Lewin for a large large stretch

851
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:54,720
Speaker 3: of the season and Charleston has missed quite a few matches.

852
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 3: Both those guys are finally healthy and playing with each

853
00:38:57,239 --> 00:38:59,799
Speaker 3: other now, I understand that it hasn't been that good

854
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:04,319
Speaker 3: of late, but as I really think Everton is fine.

855
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 3: I don't think that Burnley is really gonna challenge them.

856
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:10,320
Speaker 3: I understand the schedule that it's a little more difficult

857
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:14,760
Speaker 3: for Everton, but man, I mean this is the stakes

858
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 3: of this match are about not as high obviously as

859
00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 3: this weekend as we're gonna see between City and Liverpool.

860
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 3: But I mean this is this is about it. Like,

861
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 3: if Everton wins this, I think they're safe. I think

862
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:28,400
Speaker 3: it's it's all wrapped up. I think we know the

863
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:32,720
Speaker 3: three relegation teams are gonna be Even if Everton draws Burnley,

864
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:36,640
Speaker 3: I still think they're fine. But the only way if

865
00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 3: I was an Everton fan, the only way I would

866
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:41,279
Speaker 3: panic is if you lose to Burnley, then it's time

867
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 3: to panic. Then it's time to say, Okay, what are

868
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:44,440
Speaker 3: we gonna do? How are we gonna get out of this?

869
00:39:44,560 --> 00:39:48,400
Speaker 3: But I'm going to stand firm and saying that I

870
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 3: think Everton is fine. I thought about this weekend, Michael.

871
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:53,120
Speaker 3: I feel like I'm sure people have seen it out

872
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 3: there because they won't stop playing at the Guyico commercial

873
00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:57,279
Speaker 3: where the gut co is talking to the motorcycle guys

874
00:39:57,600 --> 00:39:59,360
Speaker 3: and they're like, I need you to hear me. You

875
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:02,080
Speaker 3: deserve to save, Like Michael, I need you to hear me.

876
00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 3: Everton's gonna stay up. Okay. So so I like over

877
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:08,920
Speaker 3: half two and a half goals in this match, and

878
00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:12,840
Speaker 3: I also think that Everton is fine to stay up

879
00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 3: in the Premier League.

880
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 4: Weirdly, that didn't. That didn't make me feel better actually, but.

881
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:19,920
Speaker 1: It's because you're a cynic.

882
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 3: I mean, I could tell you anything right now, and

883
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:23,040
Speaker 3: I don't think he would really make you feel that

884
00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:23,480
Speaker 3: much better.

885
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 1: I think you've just that one. Did that one?

886
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 4: I actually did? I enjoyed that.

887
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:30,520
Speaker 1: I think that the issue here is is the numbers.

888
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:33,839
Speaker 4: The overall numbers for Everton are telling you the story

889
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:36,880
Speaker 4: of a team, a different team. This team is playing

890
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 4: with for the back for it is likely going to

891
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:44,239
Speaker 4: be John Joe, Kenny Batally, Mikhalanko, Mason Holgate and Bank

892
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:46,959
Speaker 4: Godfrey and god blessed benk Godfrey. He played a great

893
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 4: game again. He's really been the only reliable player on

894
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:54,120
Speaker 4: the back line for the past since he's come back

895
00:40:54,120 --> 00:41:01,840
Speaker 4: from injury. And when your defense is this inept at everything.

896
00:41:02,040 --> 00:41:05,080
Speaker 4: They don't progress the ball well, they don't defend well,

897
00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 4: that's going to make everybody, everybody's job in front of

898
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 4: them a lot harder, right Naturally, Dominic calval Lewin's got

899
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:14,719
Speaker 4: to come back deeper to get the ball for Charlison's

900
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:16,480
Speaker 4: got to come back and help defend. It's just got

901
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 4: to have a Domino snowball effect as we go on,

902
00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:22,880
Speaker 4: and I think right now we are the snowball is

903
00:41:22,920 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 4: gigantic because this has been going on for weeks and

904
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:28,440
Speaker 4: that's why we're seeing Everyden continue just to have terrible

905
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 4: performances under Frank Lampard. I will say though that this

906
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:35,920
Speaker 4: one against west Ham was encouraging because it came on

907
00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:38,040
Speaker 4: the road where they just haven't shown up for the

908
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:40,319
Speaker 4: past three months, at least this time against west Ham

909
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:43,200
Speaker 4: they didn't when they went down one nil, which I

910
00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:44,880
Speaker 4: thought was against the run of play. It was a

911
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 4: stupid foul by Mason Holgate right outside the box that

912
00:41:48,640 --> 00:41:52,840
Speaker 4: Aaron Cresswell deposited beautifully like it was against renn of players.

913
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:57,759
Speaker 4: Unlucky whatever, they came back and they they earned their

914
00:41:57,800 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 4: way back into the match and then one more mistake eternal.

915
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:01,399
Speaker 4: But that's what we'll be and it's two to one,

916
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:04,640
Speaker 4: so that was encouraging at least. But I just think

917
00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 4: what you're saying about the numbers is just it needs

918
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:11,480
Speaker 4: more context because of the actual roster that Frank Lampard

919
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:14,840
Speaker 4: is going to have to put out on on Wednesday.

920
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:16,439
Speaker 1: The middle of the park.

921
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:19,440
Speaker 4: I know, maybe he'll play Mason Holgate as a as

922
00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:20,280
Speaker 4: a center midfielder.

923
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:23,600
Speaker 1: Again, I can't play del Ali could, but I don't

924
00:42:23,600 --> 00:42:24,160
Speaker 1: know if that's.

925
00:42:26,080 --> 00:42:27,839
Speaker 4: Because then you're playing him with in a midfield too

926
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:30,720
Speaker 4: with Decore and I don't know, they need like a terrier.

927
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:32,920
Speaker 4: It has to chase the ball down. Yeah, it's it's

928
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:35,920
Speaker 4: like I think if if they had if they had

929
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 4: along now, if he suspended, if he wasn't suspended, I

930
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:41,719
Speaker 4: think then you do you put Delhi Ali in. But

931
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:47,000
Speaker 4: unless like he calls up Onyango from the Academy to

932
00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 4: be the kind of defense, the protector of the back four,

933
00:42:50,520 --> 00:42:52,760
Speaker 4: I don't know. I mean, I actually wouldn't hate Holgate

934
00:42:52,840 --> 00:42:54,799
Speaker 4: being in that spot because I thought it was gonna

935
00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 4: be Faby Dugh but he got hurt again. But then

936
00:42:56,960 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 4: you would be playing Jared Branthwaite, who's got what too

937
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:02,160
Speaker 4: Premier League games of experience with Benk Godfrey in the

938
00:43:02,160 --> 00:43:04,520
Speaker 4: middle and Mason Holgate, who's not a defensive midfielders to

939
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:07,360
Speaker 4: it's mialthfielder son. No matter what happens, it's going to

940
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:10,719
Speaker 4: be a mess. But I still I just think the

941
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:14,160
Speaker 4: number is going to be playable. Unfortunately, Anthony, Yeah, I've

942
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 4: got no play on this game.

943
00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:20,840
Speaker 2: It's lame. I lean toward Everton slightly. I make Burnley

944
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:23,600
Speaker 2: plus one forty five their plus one sixty, so I

945
00:43:23,640 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 2: actually do show a tiny bit of value on Burnley.

946
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 2: But I have concerned about them too. We've talked up

947
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:32,320
Speaker 2: about Everton. Let me talk about Burnley when they signed Vegarst.

948
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:35,680
Speaker 2: Naturally it is a good fit to replace Chris Wood,

949
00:43:36,239 --> 00:43:38,279
Speaker 2: but these shot numbers in the Bundesliga were bad. Like

950
00:43:38,320 --> 00:43:40,959
Speaker 2: he was getting two and a quarter shots per ninety

951
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:43,800
Speaker 2: in the Bundesliga. He's now played ten matches for Burnley.

952
00:43:44,239 --> 00:43:46,240
Speaker 2: They may want to guess how many shots he's gotten

953
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:50,920
Speaker 2: thus far the season. Seven four thirteen is the answer.

954
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:53,520
Speaker 2: So he's one. He's just over one shot a game

955
00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:56,239
Speaker 2: and they're just not There's not enough in this team

956
00:43:56,719 --> 00:43:58,560
Speaker 2: to get away with your striker getting a shot a

957
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:01,400
Speaker 2: game when you know Chris would when he was at

958
00:44:01,440 --> 00:44:04,320
Speaker 2: his best, was getting over to in the prem and

959
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:07,239
Speaker 2: they're just not getting enough going forward and it shows

960
00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 2: in the numbers. I mean you mentioned it. BJ have

961
00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:12,480
Speaker 2: not scored their last four matches. They've only produced two

962
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:14,799
Speaker 2: point six expected goals. So yeah, you could say you're

963
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 2: buying low here, and I agree, I would probably you know,

964
00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:21,400
Speaker 2: lean toward the over just on that point of view alone.

965
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 2: But again, even going back to the games prior to that,

966
00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 2: they put three on Brighton off of point seven xg.

967
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:30,239
Speaker 2: They had one against Tottenham their two best chances came

968
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:33,799
Speaker 2: from set pieces, and then Palace they had point two XG.

969
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:36,760
Speaker 2: So you know we're going back here. They have passed

970
00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:42,200
Speaker 2: one expected goal since signing Vegarst two times and so

971
00:44:42,560 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 2: I think there's just not a lot to like about

972
00:44:45,120 --> 00:44:46,600
Speaker 2: this team. I think if you want to bet Everton,

973
00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:49,279
Speaker 2: I think a better bet might be just Burnley to

974
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 2: go down at minus two hundred because I agree with BJ.

975
00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:54,800
Speaker 2: I think they are Okay they lose this, they're probably

976
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:57,919
Speaker 2: a toss up to get relegated, right, So you're looking

977
00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:00,560
Speaker 2: at minus two hundred and if ever And wins this

978
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:03,879
Speaker 2: you've pretty much won your bet if they draw your

979
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:06,880
Speaker 2: over minus two hundred to win. At that point, I

980
00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:09,000
Speaker 2: think you're coaching to minus three or four hundred, and

981
00:45:09,080 --> 00:45:11,160
Speaker 2: then if you lose, you're probably fifty to fifty. So

982
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:13,520
Speaker 2: I don't hate the bet if you want to bet

983
00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:16,520
Speaker 2: Burnley to be relegated at minus two hundred, because I

984
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:19,200
Speaker 2: do think it's coming down to those two. And you know,

985
00:45:19,239 --> 00:45:21,160
Speaker 2: you look at Burnley and we've talked about how their

986
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:25,120
Speaker 2: schedule is easier, but they're easy matches are all on

987
00:45:25,160 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 2: the road. They go to Watford, they go to Norwich

988
00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 2: so they host that and they still have to go

989
00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:34,440
Speaker 2: to Spurs So and west Ham, so they're like their

990
00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:37,920
Speaker 2: easiest matches are relegation six pointers on the road against

991
00:45:37,920 --> 00:45:39,680
Speaker 2: other teams who are trying to fight off relegation. I

992
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:42,280
Speaker 2: just don't really see it for this Burnley team getting

993
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 2: out here.

994
00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:46,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, Burnley, like you mentioned anything over one expectacle twice

995
00:45:46,960 --> 00:45:49,400
Speaker 3: in their last sixteen matches, even dating back at the

996
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 3: four White Horse.

997
00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:54,520
Speaker 1: So I really just don't see it how Burnley's going

998
00:45:54,560 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 1: to stay up here.

999
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:57,800
Speaker 3: I mean it's going to I honestly truly believe Michael

1000
00:45:58,239 --> 00:46:01,040
Speaker 3: it is going to take some so of collapse of

1001
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 3: epic proportions.

1002
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:03,279
Speaker 1: I mean, we go down.

1003
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:06,280
Speaker 4: They've won, They've won twice since December.

1004
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:10,120
Speaker 1: I don't carried over one exit. I know I'm saying

1005
00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:11,040
Speaker 1: that that's sixteen match.

1006
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:14,640
Speaker 2: It's really is it really is a mid off as they.

1007
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:18,480
Speaker 3: Say, Yeah, and Burnley's won. Berley's won twice since the

1008
00:46:18,560 --> 00:46:19,360
Speaker 3: beginning of November.

1009
00:46:19,640 --> 00:46:21,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, like no, it's like but you can say it

1010
00:46:21,640 --> 00:46:24,200
Speaker 4: will it will take a collapse of epic proportions from everything.

1011
00:46:24,280 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 1: But they're doing it so far. They could stop it.

1012
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:28,560
Speaker 4: And they do have the luxury of which is a

1013
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 4: little dangerous that they don't need to win this match

1014
00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:32,600
Speaker 4: that they need. They need to draw no bet it

1015
00:46:32,680 --> 00:46:34,440
Speaker 4: basically right, They just need to make sure that they

1016
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:36,160
Speaker 4: don't lose it to draw.

1017
00:46:36,600 --> 00:46:38,399
Speaker 2: I wish they said that in the punditry, a drawn

1018
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:39,040
Speaker 2: no bet would be.

1019
00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:39,879
Speaker 1: Good there for ever.

1020
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:44,440
Speaker 3: This is also the match I remember it, the Monday

1021
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:47,160
Speaker 3: night football match where Everton scored three goals and what

1022
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:48,120
Speaker 3: was it like eight minutes?

1023
00:46:48,280 --> 00:46:51,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that was back when Everton was metable.

1024
00:46:51,120 --> 00:46:52,920
Speaker 1: Why don't we just Michael, why don't we just do

1025
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:53,399
Speaker 1: that again?

1026
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:55,560
Speaker 3: We'll have the party and everything will be good and

1027
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:57,719
Speaker 3: we can we can celebrate Everton staying up.

1028
00:46:58,000 --> 00:46:59,520
Speaker 2: I didn't get a text today why don't you just

1029
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:02,200
Speaker 2: bet again Everton every single match? And I thought it's

1030
00:47:02,239 --> 00:47:02,680
Speaker 2: probably right.

1031
00:47:03,239 --> 00:47:04,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, well you can say that.

1032
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:05,120
Speaker 2: Why.

1033
00:47:05,200 --> 00:47:07,440
Speaker 1: I mean, we're we're attle.

1034
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:10,240
Speaker 2: Listening on the on the market here with with with everything.

1035
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:14,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, what's saying road Hindsight's twenty twenty, like

1036
00:47:15,000 --> 00:47:17,040
Speaker 3: why don't you bet against nor Which every single time?

1037
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:20,279
Speaker 3: Why don't think that's Watford every time? But listen, that's

1038
00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:23,160
Speaker 3: that sounds smart? Yeah, maybe a smart person.

1039
00:47:23,320 --> 00:47:24,240
Speaker 2: We're not that smart.

1040
00:47:24,680 --> 00:47:26,360
Speaker 1: I'm not definitely not that smart.

1041
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:31,200
Speaker 4: No, if we were smarter, we wouldn't be ruining for

1042
00:47:31,280 --> 00:47:34,759
Speaker 4: teams that are in relegation battles after spending half a

1043
00:47:34,840 --> 00:47:40,320
Speaker 4: billion dollars on and fourth the I also want to

1044
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:41,799
Speaker 4: say one other thing too, like I think a lot

1045
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:44,799
Speaker 4: of people are giving are saying that Burnley they've been

1046
00:47:44,840 --> 00:47:46,160
Speaker 4: through this before, which is true.

1047
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:47,880
Speaker 1: But I don't I don't really know.

1048
00:47:47,960 --> 00:47:50,160
Speaker 4: If I'm a narrative, I would buy buy into that.

1049
00:47:50,360 --> 00:47:53,080
Speaker 4: One thing I I will say, though this is nothing

1050
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:54,920
Speaker 4: to do with the benning, is if Burnley goes down,

1051
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:57,759
Speaker 4: it's not a huge deal for them like that. They'll

1052
00:47:57,840 --> 00:48:00,839
Speaker 4: yo yo back up, I'm sure, and if everything goes down,

1053
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:04,040
Speaker 4: they're screwed with their finances. So that's why I think

1054
00:48:04,080 --> 00:48:05,560
Speaker 4: the stakes are just so high, and I think that

1055
00:48:05,719 --> 00:48:10,080
Speaker 4: Everton fans are acting the way they are in addition

1056
00:48:10,120 --> 00:48:13,839
Speaker 4: to the fact that their team has won twice since

1057
00:48:14,080 --> 00:48:17,879
Speaker 4: December or something like that. All right, on that positive note,

1058
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:20,320
Speaker 4: we'll move on to our favorite bets for the Champions

1059
00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:21,480
Speaker 4: League the quarterfinals.

1060
00:48:21,520 --> 00:48:23,880
Speaker 1: Their four matches BJ. Let's start with you.

1061
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:26,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go Manchester City Athleticico Madrid under two

1062
00:48:26,719 --> 00:48:28,120
Speaker 3: and a half goals at plus one to ten.

1063
00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:30,879
Speaker 1: The pace of this match is going to be incredibly slow.

1064
00:48:30,920 --> 00:48:33,000
Speaker 3: I expect at Lety cotsit back in their four to

1065
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:35,160
Speaker 3: four to two play, incredibly cautious play.

1066
00:48:35,200 --> 00:48:36,560
Speaker 1: They are two low blocks of four.

1067
00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:38,839
Speaker 3: You know, the Manchester City team. We've talked about them

1068
00:48:38,880 --> 00:48:41,920
Speaker 3: many times, but Pep Garrela aside is playing back to

1069
00:48:41,960 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 3: playing their slow, pragmatic style of play. I mean, they

1070
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:47,760
Speaker 3: have the lowest sequence time of anybody in the Europe's

1071
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:50,239
Speaker 3: top five leagues and the lowest direct speed and they

1072
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:53,759
Speaker 3: also lead everybody in build up play. So they are

1073
00:48:53,880 --> 00:48:57,440
Speaker 3: essentially just holding possession in the opponent's final third and

1074
00:48:57,640 --> 00:48:59,360
Speaker 3: just trying to break them down very slow with a

1075
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:01,719
Speaker 3: lot of low quality chances, which works against a lot

1076
00:49:01,760 --> 00:49:05,560
Speaker 3: of teams, but against a stout defensive tide like Athletico Madrid.

1077
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:08,720
Speaker 3: It's only allowing point nine xg per ninety this season,

1078
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:11,600
Speaker 3: it's gonna be a lot more difficult, especially with allowing

1079
00:49:11,600 --> 00:49:14,440
Speaker 3: Athletic coode to maintain that structure and not trying to

1080
00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:17,080
Speaker 3: exploit them with direct attacks. So I only have around

1081
00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:19,680
Speaker 3: two point three goals projected for this match, so I

1082
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:21,680
Speaker 3: think we're going to see a very slow, pragmatic style

1083
00:49:21,719 --> 00:49:24,160
Speaker 3: from man City and a very cautious play from Athletico Madrid.

1084
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:26,279
Speaker 3: So it wouldn't surprise me to see a one nil

1085
00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:28,840
Speaker 3: Man City winn or potentially a zero zero draw. So

1086
00:49:29,080 --> 00:49:30,359
Speaker 3: I like under two and a half goals a plus

1087
00:49:30,440 --> 00:49:30,759
Speaker 3: one ten.

1088
00:49:31,239 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 4: I like Chelsea plus one fifteen to beat Real Madrid,

1089
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:37,960
Speaker 4: Chelsea and Real Madrid. This bookmakers are projecting this one

1090
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:40,400
Speaker 4: to be the closest of the four Champions League quarterfinals

1091
00:49:40,480 --> 00:49:42,879
Speaker 4: by a long way, and I agree with that notion,

1092
00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:45,080
Speaker 4: and I agree with odds makers that there's really not

1093
00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:46,880
Speaker 4: that much separating these two teams.

1094
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:48,319
Speaker 1: However, it's hard to.

1095
00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:51,879
Speaker 4: Ignore the form that Chelsea was in going into their

1096
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:54,480
Speaker 4: four to one loss to Brentford. As ugly as that

1097
00:49:54,600 --> 00:49:56,799
Speaker 4: match was, it was a pretty tough spot for Chelsea

1098
00:49:56,920 --> 00:49:58,600
Speaker 4: coming back from an international break and.

1099
00:49:58,640 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 1: With Real Madrid on.

1100
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:02,680
Speaker 4: So I'm very happy to draw a line through that

1101
00:50:02,800 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 4: and trust this Chelsea defense that in their five games

1102
00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:08,640
Speaker 4: leading into that loss to Brentford allowed one goal on

1103
00:50:08,800 --> 00:50:11,880
Speaker 4: just three point one expectacles. So I'm going to be

1104
00:50:11,960 --> 00:50:14,000
Speaker 4: back into Blues here, a team that I rarely do

1105
00:50:14,200 --> 00:50:16,239
Speaker 4: bet on, a team that I think the three of

1106
00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:19,640
Speaker 4: us rarely bet on. So Chelsea plus one fifteen, that's

1107
00:50:19,680 --> 00:50:20,359
Speaker 4: my favorite bet.

1108
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:21,680
Speaker 1: Anthony, bring it.

1109
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:23,800
Speaker 2: So yeah, let's make it three for three on Chelsea.

1110
00:50:24,320 --> 00:50:26,719
Speaker 2: All of us are on the Blues here and they're

1111
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:28,680
Speaker 2: my best bet. But I'm not taking the money line.

1112
00:50:28,719 --> 00:50:30,400
Speaker 2: I mean, I am taking the money line, but my

1113
00:50:30,480 --> 00:50:33,640
Speaker 2: best bet is Chelsea two. Advanced to the semifinals at

1114
00:50:33,719 --> 00:50:37,880
Speaker 2: minus one fifteen. Chelsea did have a blip on Saturday.

1115
00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:40,920
Speaker 2: They lost. They have four goals two point four expected.

1116
00:50:41,000 --> 00:50:45,040
Speaker 2: All that's concerning, but we need to consider the relative

1117
00:50:45,440 --> 00:50:48,600
Speaker 2: performances of Chelsea in the last month versus Real Madrid.

1118
00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:51,600
Speaker 2: Real Madrid was very much outplayed by PSG in the

1119
00:50:51,640 --> 00:50:55,480
Speaker 2: first leg. They were getting dominated in the second leg

1120
00:50:55,640 --> 00:50:58,960
Speaker 2: until a second half collapse from PSG ensued we were

1121
00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:01,759
Speaker 2: not that far away from a PSG beatdown. And then

1122
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:04,560
Speaker 2: since then they gave up one point four to Majorca

1123
00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:08,840
Speaker 2: expected goals. They gave up four goals to Barcelona in

1124
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:12,359
Speaker 2: L Classico and an embarrassing loss, and then needed three

1125
00:51:12,400 --> 00:51:15,400
Speaker 2: penalties to beat Vigo on Saturday. So I'm just not

1126
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:18,279
Speaker 2: buying this Madrid team at all. I think they're very

1127
00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:20,480
Speaker 2: overrated and I think Chelsea is going to have a

1128
00:51:20,560 --> 00:51:23,880
Speaker 2: similar beatdown of them in this match they did in

1129
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:26,600
Speaker 2: the Champions League semifinals last season. Not much has changed

1130
00:51:26,600 --> 00:51:28,799
Speaker 2: between these two teams. I'm getting the better team, who

1131
00:51:28,840 --> 00:51:30,680
Speaker 2: plays in the better league and who has been in

1132
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:33,920
Speaker 2: better form. Give me the Blues at minus one fifteen

1133
00:51:33,960 --> 00:51:36,520
Speaker 2: to advance to the semifinals. I'm also taking money line

1134
00:51:36,560 --> 00:51:37,160
Speaker 2: in the first leg.

1135
00:51:37,400 --> 00:51:40,480
Speaker 4: All right, That wraps up another episode of Wonder Goal

1136
00:51:41,280 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 4: for b J Cunningham and Antony Bundo and Michael Lee

1137
00:51:43,680 --> 00:51:46,560
Speaker 4: buff We will be back on Thursday morning. If Everyday loses,

1138
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:48,920
Speaker 4: Anthony and Bj will be back on Thursday morning, and

1139
00:51:48,960 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 4: I'll just speak wandering the streets somewhere, maybe without any clothes.

1140
00:51:55,120 --> 00:51:56,440
Speaker 4: Maybe I've been arrested. I don't know.

1141
00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:57,279
Speaker 1: I just won't be there.

1142
00:51:57,840 --> 00:51:59,080
Speaker 4: But it's been at pleasure.

1143
00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:01,000
Speaker 1: And see you guys Thursday morning.

1144
00:52:10,440 --> 00:52:10,480
Speaker 3: H