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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: An attempted coup in Benin has been thwarted by rapid

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Speaker 2: action from its West African neighbors, led by Nigeria.

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Speaker 3: Nigeria came to our aid by conducting strikes at the

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Speaker 3: end of the day with its military aircraft, which immobilized

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Speaker 3: some of the armored vehicles.

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Speaker 2: At least nine countries have faced coups in Africa since

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Speaker 2: the COVID pandemic, but after years of inaction by the

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Speaker 2: regional Economic block. This time the response was much more emphatic.

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Speaker 3: I would like to commend the sense of duty of

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Speaker 3: our army and its leaders who remained republican and loyal

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Speaker 3: to the nation. With them, we stood firm, recaptured our

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Speaker 3: positions and cleared the last packets of resistance from the mutineers.

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Speaker 3: This treachery will not to go unpunished.

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Speaker 2: On today's episode of The Next Africa Podcast, well look

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Speaker 2: at what happened in Benin, which other countries could be

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Speaker 2: at risk, and whether the domino of West African coups

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Speaker 2: could be halted. I'm Jennifer's Abasadov and this is the

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Speaker 2: Next Africa Podcast, bringing you one story each week from

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Speaker 2: the Continent, driving the future of global growth with the

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Speaker 2: context only Bloomberg can provide. Joining us this week is

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Katerina Joyhe, who is based in West Africa and

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Speaker 2: has written this week's Next Africa newsletter. Katerina, thanks so

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Speaker 2: much for joining us on the podcast again. Katerina, Let's

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Speaker 2: start with the weekend's events. Talk us through what exactly

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Speaker 2: happened in Benin and when it became clear that something

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Speaker 2: potentially damaging for the country was happening.

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Speaker 1: On Sunday morning. For the people in Courtanu, it was

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Speaker 1: probably you know when gunfire started as the soldiers attactive

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Speaker 1: military base and raided at arms. Case for the rest

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Speaker 1: of the world, I think it was when they came

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Speaker 1: on State TV saying that they had also the president

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Speaker 1: and taking control fort a very familiar picture here in

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Speaker 1: West Africa. The soldiers then managed to actually get close

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Speaker 1: enough to the President's residency for him to witness the

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Speaker 1: clash's first hand. They also succeeded in kidnapping two senior

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Speaker 1: military officers who were only released the next day. But

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Speaker 1: the fact that Talom was never arrested and could get

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Speaker 1: called through to Nigeria as President Bollatinovu, who before the

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Speaker 1: end of the day sent in the fighter jets took

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Speaker 1: that conducted airstrate against the soldiers, and then that was

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Speaker 1: joined by troops from Ivory Coast, while one of Benin's allies, France,

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Speaker 1: provided intelligence and logistics. I think this was all a

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Speaker 1: much swifter response to a clear coup attempt than we'd

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Speaker 1: seen in the region more often. And you know, by

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Speaker 1: the end of the day, the soldiers were back in

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Speaker 1: control in Kotunu. We know that they're still chasing down

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Speaker 1: the last mutineers, but basically a botched coup in a

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Speaker 1: few hours.

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Speaker 2: And we know that as you were just pointing out there,

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Speaker 2: the response from echoas in the past has not been

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Speaker 2: as swift. What changed this time? I mean you said

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Speaker 2: it was over by the end of the day. That's

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Speaker 2: that's quite different than what we've seen elsewhere.

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Speaker 1: Compared to its neighbors Bulkina, Faso, Niger, Benin is still

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Speaker 1: seen as quite relatively stable, which gives it more political

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Speaker 1: weight and makes Echos more willing to defend an elected government.

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Speaker 1: Also again the fact that Talon was not arrested. The

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Speaker 1: other thing is, of course the fear of Benin joining

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Speaker 1: the Sahel military block with Marlin, Niger and Bukina Faso,

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Speaker 1: it still sort of shows that they're not completely they

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Speaker 1: still don't know exactly how to handle these cups because

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Speaker 1: Echo's in action in Guinea Bisau last month where it

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Speaker 1: was a coup for example, sort of shows that whether

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Speaker 1: they react or not still remains mainly on whether it's

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Speaker 1: politically important to them, and not exactly because they're playing

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Speaker 1: by a rule book and Katarina.

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Speaker 2: Over the past few years we've reported as you have

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Speaker 2: two of the retreat of French troops and France more

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Speaker 2: broadly in the region, why did they decide to step

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Speaker 2: in here in Benin?

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Speaker 1: France has remained loyal to Binin or vice versa, unlike

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Speaker 1: countries like Marl Nigier and Burkina Faso where we've seen

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Speaker 1: French troops along with this European al as forced to leave.

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Speaker 1: So France providing a bit of logistics support and intelligence

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Speaker 1: as they confirmed and as Beinin has also confirmed as well.

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Speaker 1: Makes sense then obviously avoiding sending troops getting in underground,

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Speaker 1: which has proved to be unsuccessful in the past. Benin

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Speaker 1: remains again not a huge market for France, but the

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Speaker 1: coastal countries are still where where France has their main

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Speaker 1: business interest right now. So defending these countries and preventing

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Speaker 1: as bill a or biggest billover of violence from the

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Speaker 1: SAHELLE is another strategic interest for France. We've also seen

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Speaker 1: France moving closer to Nigeria. President McConn was in Abuja

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Speaker 1: as late as September, so again that backing a new

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Speaker 1: ally in the region could also have been motivation for

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Speaker 1: France to react in.

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Speaker 2: This case, which of course brings up President Tinubu. Because

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Speaker 2: you pointed out the crucial role that Nigeria played, how

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Speaker 2: do you read into his response and his role in

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Speaker 2: this whole scenario.

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Speaker 1: I mean Nigeria moved fast for its own interests. Beanin

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Speaker 1: is vital to Nigeria's economy. The porting continu is important

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Speaker 1: for trade and movement and goods. It's close to Nigeria's

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Speaker 1: biggest city, Legos, which is then also a commercial capital. Secondly,

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Speaker 1: as the security spillover risks were high in this case,

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Speaker 1: Al Qaeda militants have recently crossed from into Nigeria, sort

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Speaker 1: of making a stable Beanin more important for Tinabu. I

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Speaker 1: think there's also some personal motivations here. It was sort

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Speaker 1: of a chance for him to show that he has

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Speaker 1: a strong role regionally. In twenty twenty three, he tried

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Speaker 1: to react against the coup in neighbor in Nigier, but

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Speaker 1: because it was too slow Toinebri had just come to power.

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Speaker 1: When Nigeria and the regional bloc finally reacted, you know,

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Speaker 1: the coup was only completed. That this was maybe a

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Speaker 1: way of him to rectifying that image.

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Speaker 2: And we've talked about just how concerning some parts of

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Speaker 2: Nigeria are, just given some of the militants and the

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Speaker 2: Islamust militants and the threat that they pose. Do you

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Speaker 2: think he was maybe trying to send a message to

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Speaker 2: his electorate that he is taking a stand.

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Speaker 1: Well, I mean, if he was doing that, he would

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Speaker 1: have maybe reacted in Nigeria. The country has seen a

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Speaker 1: spiky militant activity with mass abductions and attacks against civilians.

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Speaker 1: Only last month the gunman at the church killing pastor

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Speaker 1: and worshippers, and days later, maybe even more significant, more

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Speaker 1: than three hundred students and teachers, we're kidnapped from a

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Speaker 1: boarding school. I mean, President Tinobu has reacted by naming

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Speaker 1: a new defense chief, but hasn't actually been able to

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Speaker 1: stop these attacks. And he's also become under pressure from

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Speaker 1: US President Trump, who has warned at Christianity in Nigeria

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Speaker 1: faces an exontential threat and threatening to cut aid and

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Speaker 1: even intervene militarily. So I'm thinking that Nigeria's are probably wondering,

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Speaker 1: if we can send fighter jets to beinin why can't

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Speaker 1: we do the same in our country.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely stick with me, Katerina. When we come back, we'll

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Speaker 2: broad in the conversation out from Nigeria and talk about

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Speaker 2: some of the other states in the region that are

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Speaker 2: potentially nervous about potential coups in the future and what

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Speaker 2: that might mean for twenty twenty six. We'll be right back.

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Speaker 2: Welcome back today. On the podcast, we're digging into the

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Speaker 2: attempted coup and Benin and what it means for democratic

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Speaker 2: governments in West Africa. Our reporter Katerina Joye is still

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Speaker 2: with me. So, Katerina, you wrote in the newsletter this

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Speaker 2: week about the eight coups that have taken place in

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Speaker 2: Africa since twenty twenty. You briefly touched on it before,

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Speaker 2: but how do you assess the reason why there's been

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Speaker 2: so many over the past just five years.

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Speaker 1: I mean they're all taking place in sort of like

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Speaker 1: a regional context of insecurity and often fragile leadership, with violence,

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Speaker 1: especially from the Sales State, spreading into West African coastal countries. Here.

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Speaker 1: I think Benin it's already been the deadliest year yet

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Speaker 1: which attacks from militants violence has searched, with fatalities reaching

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Speaker 1: nearly seventy percent increase. There's also discontent with political elites,

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Speaker 1: leaders who've been elected more or less fairly and then

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Speaker 1: failed to actually improve lives for the citizens. Again, in Benin,

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Speaker 1: we heard the military speak about the lack of development.

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Speaker 1: They mentioned education and also economic mismanagement, and that is

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Speaker 1: something that we've seen and across the board, and which

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Speaker 1: is which is very vivid among large, growing, young populations

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Speaker 1: that are struggling to find jobs and you make a

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Speaker 1: living for themselves. Then again, I mean absolutely there is

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Speaker 1: the regional local differences, but I think the sort of

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Speaker 1: main factor this we've been driving coups in recent years.

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Speaker 2: There's plenty of states that are likely looking to the

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Speaker 2: situation in beneath and wondering what that could mean. For them.

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Speaker 2: Of course, earlier this year we did see Madagascar with

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Speaker 2: a similar situation. Are there any other states in West

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Speaker 2: Africa that you think potentially are in a position to

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Speaker 2: be vulnerable to kous And.

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Speaker 4: I think, without naming any names, anywhere where leaders have

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Speaker 4: extended their power either by changing constitutions or or by

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Speaker 4: preventing opponents from running in elections, I mean then we

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Speaker 4: can mention Ivercoast and Togo there is a risk.

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Speaker 1: And this is again pad with you know, big young

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Speaker 1: populations that are demanding better opportunities along with Islamist violence

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Speaker 1: in some of these states. So I think any any

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Speaker 1: country that are seeing display out is at risk more

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Speaker 1: is more vulnerable to accoup.

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Speaker 2: To say, and that's becoming even increasing in the number

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Speaker 2: of states that we see across the continent. What are

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Speaker 2: you paying attention to next, Katarina? Just given this latest

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Speaker 2: incident in Benin.

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Speaker 1: I think what's going to be interesting to look at is,

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Speaker 1: of course his elections coming up in Benin next year.

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Speaker 1: And Talon has done exactly what I mentioned that you

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Speaker 1: probably shouldn't be doing. He has been sidelining political opponents

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Speaker 1: and he's now paving the way for his successor Finance

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Speaker 1: Minister Romal Bardani to take over power while but done.

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Speaker 1: He is a great technocrat who's been hailed as the

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Speaker 1: man behind Benin's economic success. He might not have the

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Speaker 1: same credentials or political ideas as Kaloon has, so that's

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Speaker 1: definitely a risk. And then I'll be looking at neighboring countries.

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Speaker 1: We have Togo that's seen protests since President Forgna Singbe

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Speaker 1: extended his rule there earlier this year, so that's definitely

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Speaker 1: what we're looking at. And again the security issues, the

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Speaker 1: triangle with Nizier ben In Nigeria is seeing a spread

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Speaker 1: of Islamist violence. Again, I would say fertile ground for violence.

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Speaker 2: And who's Katherine, Thanks again so much for joining us

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Speaker 2: today and you can read karina is reporting from West Africa,

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Speaker 2: including her recent newsletter on Bloomberg platforms. Now here's some

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Speaker 2: of the other stories we've been following across the region

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Speaker 2: this week. US Trade Representative Jamison Greer says he is

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Speaker 2: happy to consider removing South Africa from the list of

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Speaker 2: Africans that receives duty free access known as a go

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Speaker 2: up to the American economy and the streets of Tanzania's

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Speaker 2: biggest city, Dharsalam, were deserted this week as residents heated

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Speaker 2: government orders to remain indoors to avoid arrest. Assign the

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Speaker 2: state's bloody crackdown may have deterred protesters. Marches have been

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Speaker 2: planned across the East African nation to mark the sixty

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Speaker 2: fourth anniversary of independence from the UK. The government, though

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Speaker 2: canceled official celebrations in anticipation of the demonstrations, and you

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Speaker 2: can follow these stories across Bloomberg, including the Next African Newsletter.

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Speaker 2: Will put a link to that in the show notes.

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Speaker 2: This program was produced by Adrian Bradley and Tiua Debaio.

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Speaker 2: Don't forget to follow and review this show wherever you

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Speaker 2: usually get your podcasts. But for now, I'm Jennifer Zabasaja.

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Speaker 2: Thanks as always for listening