WEBVTT - Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend-August 22, 2020

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason

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<v Speaker 1>Kelly from Bloomberg Radio. I'm Jason Kelly and I'm Carol Masser.

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the weekend edition of Bloomberg Business Week. Over

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<v Speaker 1>the next couple of hours, we're gonna bring you news

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<v Speaker 1>of the week, insights from the magazine and more. And Jason,

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<v Speaker 1>it was week working from home, although I did go

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<v Speaker 1>to the office for the first time this week since March.

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<v Speaker 1>So our world is slowly reopening with starts and stops,

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<v Speaker 1>as we know, especially if you look at our schools

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<v Speaker 1>and colleges and universities. We're going to talk about that.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of backtracking, as you know. But you also

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<v Speaker 1>are back from vacation. You got on a plane. I

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<v Speaker 1>got on a plane and came right back into quarantine.

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<v Speaker 1>So a couple of steps forwards and a few steps back. Uh. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's sort of an amazing world that we're living in

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<v Speaker 1>right now. You can move around to a point, and

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<v Speaker 1>we talked about all of that with so many of

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<v Speaker 1>our guests across the show this week. What we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>is the confluence of two pandemics. More House College President

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<v Speaker 1>David Thomas, he talked to us about the dual crises

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<v Speaker 1>facing this kind tree and why his school is going

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<v Speaker 1>all online for the fall, plus how Carnival is navigating

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<v Speaker 1>the financial waves caused by the pandemic. We begin with

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<v Speaker 1>this week's issue, a double issue, the vaccine issue. Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>News Markets and E t F reporter Claire Balantine and

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<v Speaker 1>the editor of the magazine, Joel Webber, joined us to

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<v Speaker 1>talk about Wall Street's view on what a vaccine could

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<v Speaker 1>do to markets. Joe kicks it off. We put all

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<v Speaker 1>of our muscle on into this vaccine issue double issue,

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<v Speaker 1>and one of the things that you know is just

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<v Speaker 1>uniquely Bloomberg I think, is is you know, bringing it

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<v Speaker 1>back to the markets. And one of the questions that

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<v Speaker 1>we sort of put to the equities team was sort

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<v Speaker 1>of like, okay, well, if there is a vaccine at

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<v Speaker 1>some point, um, what does that mean? What what what

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<v Speaker 1>will that do for for markets? Would there be a

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<v Speaker 1>bump or would that bump be short lived or or

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<v Speaker 1>would there be no bump um? And that was sort

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<v Speaker 1>of where we left it. It was just an open

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<v Speaker 1>ended invite to the equities team, and Claire kind of

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<v Speaker 1>picked that that up and and Claire like you came

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<v Speaker 1>up with a couple of scenarios that UM, that people

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<v Speaker 1>thought could be likely. What what were they? The first

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<v Speaker 1>is sort of a new taper tantrum UM, with the

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<v Speaker 1>idea that the stead which has really stepped in and

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<v Speaker 1>helped UM stabilized markets, begins to slowly kind of draw back.

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<v Speaker 1>That really worries people. And we see sort of the

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<v Speaker 1>new taper tantrum UM, which would obviously be be very negative.

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<v Speaker 1>UM could see stocks and bonds falling. UM. That's sort

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<v Speaker 1>of you know, uh maybe worst case, what else could happen?

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<v Speaker 1>So Claire, just let me interrupt if I can't remind

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<v Speaker 1>us what a taper tantrum really is, because we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>this before, and just remind us what that looks like

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<v Speaker 1>to to an everyday investor, and not to be confused

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<v Speaker 1>a temper tantrum that helped you with with some of

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<v Speaker 1>our bosses or spouses or whatever, my two year old

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<v Speaker 1>or you're a two year old. Well yeah, they have

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<v Speaker 1>they have some similarities, true, some some fear um. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>because the set has really supportive markets. You know what

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<v Speaker 1>happens when they take away that helping hand, and a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of it isn't driven by what has actually happened.

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<v Speaker 1>It's more just the fear of that. UM. So in

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<v Speaker 1>that case, could see stocks and bonds falling in tandem

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<v Speaker 1>a possibility, you know, not definitely, not inevitable or anything

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<v Speaker 1>like that. So what I think and I love number two, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>because I feel like, if anything, the fet isn't going

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<v Speaker 1>to rush away anytime soon. But talk to us a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit about the second scenario here. Yeah, so we

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<v Speaker 1>sort of um that came up with the phrase to

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<v Speaker 1>call this the supercharge status quo. So this means that

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<v Speaker 1>you know, a vaccine is successfully introduced, the markets very

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<v Speaker 1>happy about that, and you know, market goes up um,

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<v Speaker 1>and people are saying that that you know, could happen

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<v Speaker 1>for obvious reasons, but also because the FED isn't gonna

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<v Speaker 1>necessarily step away from these huge stimulus efforts right away. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of it is because like what we saw

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<v Speaker 1>with the Taper tan turn back in teen, it's very

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<v Speaker 1>hard to undo this quantine of easing. So in that case,

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<v Speaker 1>the market goes up. Also, everything just gets more expensive.

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<v Speaker 1>And so behind door number three is what lea. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>this is the idea that some of these value stocks

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<v Speaker 1>that have really been beaten down in this UM post

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<v Speaker 1>COVID world means that maybe those can start to do well.

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<v Speaker 1>So some of those areas that have really UM been

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<v Speaker 1>hurt hard, like the airlines, UM cyclicals, small caps, those

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<v Speaker 1>could start to outperform UM. And that would be the

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<v Speaker 1>case of a broad named market. You know, we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>the tech stocks do well, but with a vaccine, that

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<v Speaker 1>could be the gateway to many other sectors also doing well.

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<v Speaker 1>And I gotta say, can I just you know, Jill,

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<v Speaker 1>like you look at something like UM United is down

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<v Speaker 1>this year, you know, when things start to get better,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, these are the kinds of name times that

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<v Speaker 1>ultimately will take off. I mean that in in theory,

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<v Speaker 1>right in theory. The airline the airline industry is obviously

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<v Speaker 1>one that I think a lot of people UM have

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<v Speaker 1>focused on. And you know, I think Claire has written

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<v Speaker 1>about the E T F jets, which has become this

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<v Speaker 1>really interesting one of and it's just like basically a record,

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<v Speaker 1>uh set a record for inflows because so many people

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<v Speaker 1>were like trying to call the bottom. And then you know,

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<v Speaker 1>even now though we you know, we still don't have

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<v Speaker 1>a recovery, that is meaningful for that industry. So but

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<v Speaker 1>you know, value, Claire, is something that gets kicked around

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<v Speaker 1>a lot, is something that like, it's just this revival

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<v Speaker 1>is always just around the corner. What why would have

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine in particular help value stocks? Yeah, so value stocks,

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<v Speaker 1>we're talking about shares that are sort of trading at

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<v Speaker 1>low prices. Were their assets UM and so a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of the UM has really been hurt by the fact that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we've all been locked down and so you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we can't go out to shopping malls and restaurants things

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<v Speaker 1>like that. So some of these UM areas, with a vaccine,

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<v Speaker 1>people might be able to to get out more to

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<v Speaker 1>give small businesses UM their money, and that could help

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<v Speaker 1>get things more back to a more normal economy. And

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<v Speaker 1>that was Bloomberg Business Week editor Joel Webber joined with

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<v Speaker 1>Claire Ballentine, author of what I thought was one of

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<v Speaker 1>the most important stories this week, because it starts to

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<v Speaker 1>answer the question, Carol, what is this next normal look

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<v Speaker 1>like when it comes to the markets? Gotta say, getting

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<v Speaker 1>back to normal? That would certainly be nice. You're listening

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<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week. Coming up, Jason, we head to

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<v Speaker 1>your home state. That's right back to the A T.

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<v Speaker 1>L We're going to hear from Morehouse College President David Thomas,

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<v Speaker 1>why his school, world renowned, is going all online this fault,

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<v Speaker 1>and what it's like to be in Atlanta right now

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<v Speaker 1>facing these many crises. He has been ahead of the

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<v Speaker 1>academic pack. This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly from Bloomberg Radio. Welcome

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<v Speaker 1>back to Bloomberg Business Week. This week, we're focusing a

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<v Speaker 1>lot Carol on what it's like to get back to

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<v Speaker 1>business and most notably back to school right and simply

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<v Speaker 1>put Jason, it's not easy. One incredibly thoughtful voice on

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<v Speaker 1>this is Morehouse College President David Thomas. We caught up

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<v Speaker 1>with him in our own Bloomberg News higher education finance

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<v Speaker 1>reporter Janet Lauren. Janet began by giving us the big picture.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of schools have sent kids home because of

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<v Speaker 1>higher test rates of coronavirus. We saw on earlier this week,

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<v Speaker 1>the University of North Carolina said students should go home

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<v Speaker 1>because a lot of kids were testing positive. Notre Dame

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<v Speaker 1>had eighties students test positive in one day, and they

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<v Speaker 1>decided to pause in person activity for two weeks and

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<v Speaker 1>see what happens in Michigan State said that they would

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<v Speaker 1>they would not be having on campus program. Right, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that's our back draw. Let's bring in David Thomas. He's

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<v Speaker 1>President Morehouse College. He joins us on the phone from

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<v Speaker 1>Atlanta on this Wednesday long. Of course, as you just

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<v Speaker 1>heard with Jenna Lauren, our higher education finance reporter, President Thomas,

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<v Speaker 1>so nice to have you here with us. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a lot on the plate of our countries, colleges

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<v Speaker 1>and universities, the virus, reopening, virtual learning, the cost of education, inequalities.

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<v Speaker 1>What's top of mind for you right now? Well, top

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<v Speaker 1>of top of minds for me is one making sure

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<v Speaker 1>that the quality of what we offer online this semester

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<v Speaker 1>far exceeds what we were able to do last semester,

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<v Speaker 1>and that we're also able to create community in this

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<v Speaker 1>virtual environment, because that's one of the things that draw

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<v Speaker 1>students to more House College. UM, and so we've fired

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<v Speaker 1>all of our faculty who are going to teach UH

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<v Speaker 1>this semester to be certified in online education because one

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<v Speaker 1>of the things we learned is that there's a difference

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<v Speaker 1>between online education and remote instruction. Remote instruction is where

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<v Speaker 1>you essentially do what you do in an in person classroom,

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<v Speaker 1>you just being taked or delivering it on Zoom or

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<v Speaker 1>some other video platform, whereas online education there's actually a

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<v Speaker 1>pedagogy to it that makes it much more dynamics. So

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<v Speaker 1>we've invested in that. And the other thing that you

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<v Speaker 1>know keeps me awake at night is you know whether

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<v Speaker 1>or not we'll be able to bring our students back

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<v Speaker 1>for the spring semester given what we're seeing happen with

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<v Speaker 1>the virus, in particular in the state of Georgia, where

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<v Speaker 1>our positivity rates testing rates are in double digits right now. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>you made the decision quite early on among colleges that

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<v Speaker 1>you could not do in person because there was too

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<v Speaker 1>much risk for everybody, not only the students but also

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<v Speaker 1>the other people working on campus. Now other schools are

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<v Speaker 1>seeing their decisions may not have been such a great

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<v Speaker 1>idea to invite students onto campus, and they're having to

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<v Speaker 1>pivot at a very late date when kids are already there.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you talk about what went into your decision? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it was it was very um, very straightforward. We very

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<v Speaker 1>early on decided that the number one priority for us

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<v Speaker 1>would be keeping our students and our staff and faculty

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<v Speaker 1>say from a health and wellness perspective, and then our

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<v Speaker 1>second priority was ensuring the quality of what we could

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<v Speaker 1>provide educationally. And the last, the third priority was what

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<v Speaker 1>what's going to be the financial impact, because we have

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<v Speaker 1>to stay viable financially, and being clear about that made

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<v Speaker 1>it pretty straightforward for us to move through our decision

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<v Speaker 1>tree and to wind up being among the first schools

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<v Speaker 1>to say that we would be fully remote, especially in

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<v Speaker 1>the context of Georgia, where we also faced a very

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<v Speaker 1>confusing political environment where literally at one point we had

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<v Speaker 1>the governor suing the mayor over whether mass could be

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<v Speaker 1>mandated in the city of Atlanta because the governor was

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<v Speaker 1>not going to allow that to happen in the state

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<v Speaker 1>of Georgia, and we were going to mandate MASK on

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<v Speaker 1>our campus. And it's hard to enforce a rule, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>when students might raise the question, well, that's that's not

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<v Speaker 1>legal in the state. If the mayor can do it,

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<v Speaker 1>how can the college do it? So so that just

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<v Speaker 1>at us on a decision tree, and when we saw

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<v Speaker 1>the rate of positive tests going up, that led us

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<v Speaker 1>to reverse our earlier decision, which was that we would

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<v Speaker 1>be in a low density hybrid format um and uh,

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<v Speaker 1>but it was, you know, in many ways, it was

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<v Speaker 1>pretty straightforward because we just got very clear about, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>what our priorities were in our principles. You may also

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<v Speaker 1>know that we were the first school, first scholarship granting

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<v Speaker 1>school to cancel fall h football in the country, and

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<v Speaker 1>we did that almost three months ago. Uh, and we're

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<v Speaker 1>using the same set of principles. What we've seen is

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<v Speaker 1>the confluence of two pandemics. The first is the COVID

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<v Speaker 1>pandemic and the second is the pandemic of institutionalized racism

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<v Speaker 1>in our institutions and organizations. And you know, if we

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<v Speaker 1>look at COVID, it's revealed just stark inequities in health

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<v Speaker 1>outcomes along lines of race. And then if we look

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<v Speaker 1>at the pandemic of institutionalized racism, what it brings our

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<v Speaker 1>attention to is the fact that there are still policies

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<v Speaker 1>and practices that give license to the conscious and unconscious

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<v Speaker 1>biases that devalue black, black lives and brown lives. That's

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<v Speaker 1>more House College President David Thomas, along with Bloomberg News

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<v Speaker 1>Higher Ed Finance reporter Janet Lauren, those biases and institutionalized

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<v Speaker 1>racism that President Thomas talked about are really, Jason, the

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<v Speaker 1>root of our problems and what struck us as how,

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<v Speaker 1>He's said that well known leaders are now talking about

0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:06.160
<v Speaker 1>it openly and that gives him some hope for some changes.

0:14:06.320 --> 0:14:08.920
<v Speaker 1>And check out that entire conversation on our podcast feed.

0:14:08.920 --> 0:14:11.840
<v Speaker 1>Coming up, How do you think about making sure that

0:14:11.920 --> 0:14:15.960
<v Speaker 1>you're developing a resilient supply chain across a lot of

0:14:16.000 --> 0:14:18.160
<v Speaker 1>different areas. We're going to hear from the President and

0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:28.680
<v Speaker 1>CEO Blue Apron, Linda Kaslowski. This is Bloomberg. This is

0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:32.680
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly from

0:14:32.760 --> 0:14:35.720
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. So, Jason, food has been a theme, you

0:14:35.760 --> 0:14:37.480
<v Speaker 1>know that we returned to a lot in our show,

0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:40.440
<v Speaker 1>including this week big changes as a result of the virus.

0:14:40.680 --> 0:14:43.680
<v Speaker 1>We're all cooking and eating at home more than ever before.

0:14:43.760 --> 0:14:46.200
<v Speaker 1>No one knows that more than Blue Apron President and

0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:49.720
<v Speaker 1>CEO Linda Kozlowski, who has learned to adapt her business

0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:53.200
<v Speaker 1>and as a leader as things have evolved. You know, obviously,

0:14:53.280 --> 0:14:57.280
<v Speaker 1>when when COVID first hit, it was uncertain, you know,

0:14:57.400 --> 0:14:59.320
<v Speaker 1>when things were going to change, how things were going

0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:02.800
<v Speaker 1>to change, how people's behavior and reactions would adjust as

0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:05.680
<v Speaker 1>as things move forward. And what we are seeing is

0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:09.200
<v Speaker 1>we are seeing continued demand for the products UM as

0:15:09.840 --> 0:15:13.040
<v Speaker 1>as people sort of grapple with the new reality and

0:15:13.160 --> 0:15:15.080
<v Speaker 1>think about how much time they want to spend at

0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:17.240
<v Speaker 1>home versus how much time they want to you know,

0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:20.480
<v Speaker 1>want to be out even as things open again. UM.

0:15:20.600 --> 0:15:22.840
<v Speaker 1>There's a lot of new information out in the in

0:15:22.880 --> 0:15:26.720
<v Speaker 1>the world about about continuing to be cautious and continuing

0:15:26.760 --> 0:15:31.200
<v Speaker 1>to UM to sort of stay inside when possible, and

0:15:31.200 --> 0:15:33.840
<v Speaker 1>and how to safely have contacts with other people. But

0:15:33.960 --> 0:15:36.360
<v Speaker 1>we are seeing sort of the manifestation of the trend

0:15:36.480 --> 0:15:39.200
<v Speaker 1>that we talked about in early May, which is the

0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:42.960
<v Speaker 1>fact that people are telling us that no matter what happens, UM,

0:15:43.040 --> 0:15:46.880
<v Speaker 1>they are starting to plan on cooking at home more. UM.

0:15:46.960 --> 0:15:49.400
<v Speaker 1>This is a habit that they've really started to form.

0:15:49.680 --> 0:15:53.000
<v Speaker 1>UM Again, internal and external researches all pointing pointing to

0:15:53.120 --> 0:15:55.880
<v Speaker 1>the same thing that no matter what happens, as things

0:15:55.880 --> 0:15:58.400
<v Speaker 1>start to ease up and restaurants open, what have you,

0:15:58.920 --> 0:16:01.120
<v Speaker 1>that people have gotten what more confident in the kitchen

0:16:01.120 --> 0:16:02.960
<v Speaker 1>and they plan on continuing to cook at home and

0:16:03.280 --> 0:16:06.360
<v Speaker 1>they want interesting solutions to help them think about how

0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:09.440
<v Speaker 1>to make that time more connected to family and less

0:16:09.440 --> 0:16:13.120
<v Speaker 1>focused on preparation and planning. So we're continuing to see

0:16:13.120 --> 0:16:15.440
<v Speaker 1>that trend. I do wonder landed too. You know, when

0:16:15.440 --> 0:16:17.680
<v Speaker 1>you think about scenario planning, right, you think about those

0:16:17.720 --> 0:16:19.640
<v Speaker 1>things that you know out of the box that could

0:16:19.720 --> 0:16:22.400
<v Speaker 1>happen in the pandemic is certainly one of those things.

0:16:22.400 --> 0:16:25.200
<v Speaker 1>But I do think as you look down the road,

0:16:25.240 --> 0:16:29.360
<v Speaker 1>I think you know, when normal returns, you know, what

0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:32.080
<v Speaker 1>are you doing though, and are you thinking about, you know,

0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:35.640
<v Speaker 1>managing and an inevitable fall off in your business? Do

0:16:35.680 --> 0:16:40.160
<v Speaker 1>you anticipate that? Well, I think that's a little bit

0:16:40.200 --> 0:16:43.280
<v Speaker 1>of what UM, what I was referring to earlier. UM,

0:16:43.320 --> 0:16:45.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, there's always going to be ebbs and flows

0:16:45.200 --> 0:16:48.400
<v Speaker 1>as people have different needs. But what we're planning for

0:16:48.720 --> 0:16:51.160
<v Speaker 1>is staying on the thing strategy we wrong before. So

0:16:51.280 --> 0:16:54.080
<v Speaker 1>before we actually got into the pandemic, we had a

0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:57.320
<v Speaker 1>growth strategy that was obviously not based on a pandemic.

0:16:57.360 --> 0:17:01.360
<v Speaker 1>It was based on product improvements, marketing improvements, and audience expansions,

0:17:01.720 --> 0:17:05.280
<v Speaker 1>and we already thought that come together into one UM.

0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:08.679
<v Speaker 1>And now we're continuing to see that those products improvements,

0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:11.159
<v Speaker 1>which we are continuing to do as we sort of

0:17:11.160 --> 0:17:14.760
<v Speaker 1>ease out of the pandemic. Um are engaging people and

0:17:14.760 --> 0:17:18.640
<v Speaker 1>and keeping them involved with the product. So it's there

0:17:18.640 --> 0:17:20.720
<v Speaker 1>will always be ebbs and flows to the business. And

0:17:20.800 --> 0:17:24.080
<v Speaker 1>again there's seasonality trends um when we return to whatever

0:17:24.119 --> 0:17:26.840
<v Speaker 1>that new normal is. But we're more focused on the

0:17:26.920 --> 0:17:29.880
<v Speaker 1>longer term growth potential of some of the product improvements

0:17:29.880 --> 0:17:33.880
<v Speaker 1>that we're putting in around variety, flexibility, healthier options, and

0:17:34.000 --> 0:17:37.720
<v Speaker 1>continuing to drive new ways to create that variety in

0:17:37.760 --> 0:17:41.440
<v Speaker 1>our business, while also managing the complexity and being able

0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:44.920
<v Speaker 1>to expand our operations without having to put significant capital

0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:48.120
<v Speaker 1>at that operations given we already have so much ability

0:17:48.160 --> 0:17:49.760
<v Speaker 1>to do that now. We we made a lot of

0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:52.520
<v Speaker 1>investments early on that are now paying off in in

0:17:52.600 --> 0:17:56.480
<v Speaker 1>automation and the and the ability to um to scale

0:17:56.520 --> 0:17:59.920
<v Speaker 1>with labor essentially. So Linda talk to us about sort

0:18:00.280 --> 0:18:02.920
<v Speaker 1>the supply chain and the logistics side of this, were

0:18:02.920 --> 0:18:05.680
<v Speaker 1>there are things that you had to sort of resolve

0:18:05.720 --> 0:18:09.040
<v Speaker 1>along the way. I mean, you've got folks obviously working physically,

0:18:09.040 --> 0:18:12.159
<v Speaker 1>but you've got other folks working remotely. You're dealing with

0:18:12.160 --> 0:18:15.439
<v Speaker 1>different suppliers. Talk to us about that process of maybe

0:18:15.440 --> 0:18:19.720
<v Speaker 1>solving some of those issues. Yes, so I think the

0:18:19.720 --> 0:18:21.639
<v Speaker 1>the initial thing that we did was very similar to

0:18:21.680 --> 0:18:23.760
<v Speaker 1>what a lot of people did, which is, how do

0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:28.520
<v Speaker 1>you think about making sure that you're developing a resilient

0:18:28.640 --> 0:18:32.560
<v Speaker 1>supply chain across across a lot of different areas at

0:18:32.600 --> 0:18:36.119
<v Speaker 1>the same time. Simplicity is key when faced with UM

0:18:36.440 --> 0:18:39.639
<v Speaker 1>rapidly changing environments. So early on we did make some

0:18:39.680 --> 0:18:43.119
<v Speaker 1>modifications to our menu to to simplify and streamline some

0:18:43.280 --> 0:18:46.440
<v Speaker 1>of the recipe availability, to make it faster and easier

0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:49.480
<v Speaker 1>to pack and to manage logistics than Over time, we

0:18:49.600 --> 0:18:52.160
<v Speaker 1>reintroduced that complexity back in and then it can again

0:18:52.200 --> 0:18:55.480
<v Speaker 1>continued to evolve the products itself with new product offerings

0:18:55.920 --> 0:18:58.480
<v Speaker 1>UM as we were able to manage some of those

0:18:58.480 --> 0:19:00.960
<v Speaker 1>ebbs and flows and continue you to bring labor into

0:19:01.000 --> 0:19:03.919
<v Speaker 1>the facility. So UM a lot of people had to

0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:07.360
<v Speaker 1>streamline their their menus and and look at ways to

0:19:07.359 --> 0:19:10.560
<v Speaker 1>to to avoid some complexity early on, and we're really

0:19:10.600 --> 0:19:13.199
<v Speaker 1>happy that we're able to start bringing that complexity back in.

0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:15.840
<v Speaker 1>We're already back up the full service on our our

0:19:15.880 --> 0:19:20.160
<v Speaker 1>family menu and UM and very close to full variety

0:19:20.240 --> 0:19:22.720
<v Speaker 1>on our two person menu, and so we're going to

0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:25.640
<v Speaker 1>continue to do that along with introducing the new products

0:19:25.640 --> 0:19:28.360
<v Speaker 1>and variety that we have into play. On the supply

0:19:28.440 --> 0:19:30.679
<v Speaker 1>chain side, that's some a scenario where we've had an

0:19:30.720 --> 0:19:33.440
<v Speaker 1>advantage for quite some time because we've worked so closely

0:19:33.480 --> 0:19:36.760
<v Speaker 1>with the producers and because UM we have really really

0:19:36.800 --> 0:19:40.520
<v Speaker 1>high quality standards for our ingredients. UM, we've always had

0:19:40.720 --> 0:19:44.320
<v Speaker 1>really great relationships with our suppliers. We can considit move

0:19:44.440 --> 0:19:47.359
<v Speaker 1>very quickly depending on supply, and we also have the

0:19:47.400 --> 0:19:49.639
<v Speaker 1>ability to substitute and swap out if there's ever a

0:19:49.720 --> 0:19:52.920
<v Speaker 1>challenge UM because of the nature of how our recipes

0:19:52.920 --> 0:19:55.480
<v Speaker 1>are built, and so we're able to really flex that

0:19:55.600 --> 0:19:57.359
<v Speaker 1>supply chain to make sure that we don't have to

0:19:57.400 --> 0:20:00.080
<v Speaker 1>sacrifice any quality during this time where we continue need

0:20:00.119 --> 0:20:02.840
<v Speaker 1>to ramp volume. And that's Blue Apron President and CEO

0:20:02.960 --> 0:20:06.240
<v Speaker 1>Linda Kozlowski back with us. One of the things we're learning, Carol,

0:20:06.480 --> 0:20:09.200
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna be acting differently going forward, and we're gonna

0:20:09.200 --> 0:20:11.679
<v Speaker 1>be eating and cooking more at home, no doubt about that.

0:20:11.720 --> 0:20:14.480
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week coming up. No one

0:20:15.080 --> 0:20:19.919
<v Speaker 1>wants thousands of people. Carnival Corporation CEO and president Arnold

0:20:19.920 --> 0:20:23.160
<v Speaker 1>Donald on how Carnival is getting back to the high seas.

0:20:23.200 --> 0:20:31.000
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

0:20:31.040 --> 0:20:35.280
<v Speaker 1>Masser and Jason Kelly from Bloomberg Radio. Well, Carol, while

0:20:35.320 --> 0:20:38.840
<v Speaker 1>I was on vacation, I was not notably on a cruise,

0:20:38.960 --> 0:20:43.600
<v Speaker 1>but you got to look at the future of that business. Wow. Yeah, exactly.

0:20:43.640 --> 0:20:47.280
<v Speaker 1>An exclusive interview we caught up with Carnival Corporations Arnold Donald.

0:20:47.320 --> 0:20:49.639
<v Speaker 1>We know the cruise industry is one of the hardest

0:20:49.720 --> 0:20:53.000
<v Speaker 1>hit because of the virus, so many issues at play.

0:20:53.040 --> 0:20:56.280
<v Speaker 1>They're losing money, they're raising billions more, they're selling off ships.

0:20:56.480 --> 0:20:59.639
<v Speaker 1>Bottom line though, it's all about getting passengers back to

0:20:59.680 --> 0:21:04.359
<v Speaker 1>see First of all, you know, our primary responsibilities and

0:21:04.359 --> 0:21:08.600
<v Speaker 1>therefore our top priority is always compliance, environmental protection and

0:21:08.600 --> 0:21:11.840
<v Speaker 1>the health, safety and well being of our guests, of

0:21:11.920 --> 0:21:13.800
<v Speaker 1>the people in the places we go, and of course

0:21:14.200 --> 0:21:17.960
<v Speaker 1>our Carnival family, our shipboard and short side personnel. So

0:21:18.320 --> 0:21:20.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, the interests of public health is always in

0:21:20.840 --> 0:21:22.600
<v Speaker 1>the forefront for us. And how do we get people

0:21:22.640 --> 0:21:27.159
<v Speaker 1>back on ships when there's some social gathering and society

0:21:27.320 --> 0:21:31.840
<v Speaker 1>has developed the compensating measures that is comfortable with that

0:21:31.880 --> 0:21:36.040
<v Speaker 1>we have effectively mitigated the spread of COVID nineteen, and

0:21:36.080 --> 0:21:37.679
<v Speaker 1>then we'll be able to cruise again. And there are

0:21:37.680 --> 0:21:39.680
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people, as you know, Caro, who are

0:21:39.680 --> 0:21:42.720
<v Speaker 1>ready to cruise right now. And in fact, we're looking

0:21:42.760 --> 0:21:45.880
<v Speaker 1>at starting up in Europe where the spread has been

0:21:46.280 --> 0:21:49.919
<v Speaker 1>mitigated substantially, in places like Germany and Italy, and we're

0:21:49.920 --> 0:21:52.440
<v Speaker 1>looking at starting up in September there and a few

0:21:52.840 --> 0:21:55.399
<v Speaker 1>um cruise lines have but there's a lot of pin

0:21:55.520 --> 0:21:58.119
<v Speaker 1>up demand, you know, for travel in general, and especially

0:21:58.160 --> 0:22:00.800
<v Speaker 1>for cruise. Well, and when I wonder, Arnold, though, can

0:22:00.840 --> 0:22:02.359
<v Speaker 1>you kind of drill down a little bit what are

0:22:02.400 --> 0:22:04.320
<v Speaker 1>some of the specific protocols that you might put in

0:22:04.359 --> 0:22:07.080
<v Speaker 1>place to get ships safely back at sea. I've been reading,

0:22:07.520 --> 0:22:09.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, about different folks and what they might be

0:22:09.600 --> 0:22:13.440
<v Speaker 1>considering different cruise lines. They're talking about no buffets, constant

0:22:13.640 --> 0:22:18.440
<v Speaker 1>um temperature checks, constant testing, maybe no excursions. What specific

0:22:18.440 --> 0:22:21.200
<v Speaker 1>protocols will you be putting in place? Well, again, as

0:22:21.200 --> 0:22:23.240
<v Speaker 1>you well know, we we have a lot of measures

0:22:23.240 --> 0:22:27.760
<v Speaker 1>in place already on cruise that often short side destinations

0:22:27.840 --> 0:22:30.359
<v Speaker 1>don't already have or didn't have prior to COVID nineteen.

0:22:30.400 --> 0:22:33.600
<v Speaker 1>We do medical screens. We were already doing temperature checks

0:22:33.600 --> 0:22:37.359
<v Speaker 1>in many cases. UM, we had hand sanitizers throughout the

0:22:37.359 --> 0:22:39.920
<v Speaker 1>ship and signs all over about washing your hands because

0:22:39.960 --> 0:22:42.400
<v Speaker 1>we've had to deal with viruses and the over seven

0:22:42.800 --> 0:22:45.960
<v Speaker 1>ports and destinations we go to annually for many years now.

0:22:45.960 --> 0:22:49.520
<v Speaker 1>Of course, CORVID nineteen is especially unique because the whole

0:22:49.560 --> 0:22:52.120
<v Speaker 1>world is shut down, and because of that, there's still

0:22:52.160 --> 0:22:54.760
<v Speaker 1>a lot of learning around COVID nineteen. As you know

0:22:55.119 --> 0:22:58.480
<v Speaker 1>from all the scientists, they're still a line around epidemiology,

0:22:58.480 --> 0:23:00.880
<v Speaker 1>they're lying around testing, their a line around the role

0:23:00.920 --> 0:23:05.960
<v Speaker 1>of testing. The one thing everybody right now is aligned on, though,

0:23:06.440 --> 0:23:09.520
<v Speaker 1>is that you know, good personal care in terms of

0:23:09.560 --> 0:23:13.680
<v Speaker 1>wearing a mask, washing your hands, um, using hand sanitizers,

0:23:14.119 --> 0:23:16.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, physical distancing at appropriate times, but wearing a

0:23:16.920 --> 0:23:20.280
<v Speaker 1>mask is a great way to mitigate the spread. So

0:23:20.480 --> 0:23:23.920
<v Speaker 1>for the time being, any cruises that will happen will

0:23:23.960 --> 0:23:28.520
<v Speaker 1>certainly incorporate some physical distancing and you know, wearing masks.

0:23:28.560 --> 0:23:31.040
<v Speaker 1>And of course what we already had was the the

0:23:31.200 --> 0:23:36.040
<v Speaker 1>hand sanitizers, excetera. Beyond that, UM, there's a plethora of possibilities,

0:23:36.040 --> 0:23:39.040
<v Speaker 1>but it depends on the destination, depends on the level

0:23:39.040 --> 0:23:42.919
<v Speaker 1>of community spreading that destination, etcetera. So there could be

0:23:43.160 --> 0:23:47.119
<v Speaker 1>various testing protocols. I mean, that's the possibility for the US.

0:23:47.280 --> 0:23:50.000
<v Speaker 1>It's premature. You know, we're not ready to sail here yet.

0:23:50.359 --> 0:23:54.359
<v Speaker 1>Obviously the community spread is still pretty vibrant here in

0:23:54.400 --> 0:23:57.960
<v Speaker 1>the US, and when we're out of position to sail here,

0:23:58.040 --> 0:24:01.120
<v Speaker 1>and we're walking cautiously in the other places too, because

0:24:01.160 --> 0:24:04.280
<v Speaker 1>our primary interests is to stand with everyone else in

0:24:04.320 --> 0:24:06.720
<v Speaker 1>mitigating the spread of COVID nineteen. But I did read

0:24:06.720 --> 0:24:09.200
<v Speaker 1>your your Coster Cruise is safety protocols and you talked

0:24:09.200 --> 0:24:12.399
<v Speaker 1>about three tests for crew members before boarding. UM. You

0:24:12.480 --> 0:24:16.160
<v Speaker 1>also talked about, of course social distancing, new filters. UM

0:24:16.320 --> 0:24:19.080
<v Speaker 1>Entertainment will have more shows on during the day so

0:24:19.119 --> 0:24:22.400
<v Speaker 1>that they're smaller groups. And then also no self service restaurants,

0:24:22.400 --> 0:24:24.320
<v Speaker 1>so no buffets, which for many of you go on

0:24:24.320 --> 0:24:26.200
<v Speaker 1>a cruise, they're pretty used to it. So there are

0:24:26.240 --> 0:24:29.320
<v Speaker 1>some changes coming. Oh yeah, absolutely for the ones that

0:24:29.320 --> 0:24:31.280
<v Speaker 1>are going to sail now, we have to be ready.

0:24:31.400 --> 0:24:33.800
<v Speaker 1>Just like hotels today, any hotel that's open the day

0:24:34.080 --> 0:24:36.800
<v Speaker 1>has to deal with the current situation and the limited

0:24:36.840 --> 0:24:39.520
<v Speaker 1>knowledge thereas And so for Costa we are deploying a

0:24:39.680 --> 0:24:43.840
<v Speaker 1>number of testing protocols. Obviously for our crew, we have

0:24:43.920 --> 0:24:47.200
<v Speaker 1>not only testing, but quarantine, etcetera. Because it's really important

0:24:47.480 --> 0:24:49.920
<v Speaker 1>for us to have the clue crew UM, you know,

0:24:50.240 --> 0:24:52.440
<v Speaker 1>safe from the beginning and then to keep them safe.

0:24:52.680 --> 0:24:56.040
<v Speaker 1>And obviously UM once we get guests on board, will

0:24:56.080 --> 0:24:58.399
<v Speaker 1>have protocols on board for them. I do wonder how

0:24:58.440 --> 0:25:00.320
<v Speaker 1>you do it safely. I mean, Arnold, you know this

0:25:00.400 --> 0:25:03.560
<v Speaker 1>industry better than everyone, uh and better than most in

0:25:03.720 --> 0:25:06.440
<v Speaker 1>terms of lay personnel. But I wonder how you do

0:25:06.560 --> 0:25:09.240
<v Speaker 1>it safely because there have been some smaller cruise operations

0:25:09.640 --> 0:25:13.239
<v Speaker 1>that have come out of Europe, come out of Alaska, Tahiti, UM,

0:25:13.320 --> 0:25:15.160
<v Speaker 1>and I believe there are less at least ten crew

0:25:15.240 --> 0:25:18.080
<v Speaker 1>members aboard UM your Aida cruise ships out of Germany

0:25:18.320 --> 0:25:21.720
<v Speaker 1>that contacted the virus ahead of you getting ready to

0:25:21.800 --> 0:25:24.399
<v Speaker 1>kind of get back to the seas UM. That was

0:25:24.440 --> 0:25:26.600
<v Speaker 1>in August. So I just wonder how do you do

0:25:26.760 --> 0:25:29.959
<v Speaker 1>this safely when even when some small cruise operations are

0:25:29.960 --> 0:25:32.160
<v Speaker 1>starting to go back out on the water and still

0:25:32.200 --> 0:25:34.960
<v Speaker 1>having problems with the virus and people are contacting the virus.

0:25:35.480 --> 0:25:37.760
<v Speaker 1>Carol think this two stage. Just one is you want

0:25:37.760 --> 0:25:41.640
<v Speaker 1>to reduce the risk of having UM the COVID nineteen

0:25:41.760 --> 0:25:44.359
<v Speaker 1>come on board from shore. So that's the first thing.

0:25:44.440 --> 0:25:48.080
<v Speaker 1>So you test UM, and you monitor, and you quarantine

0:25:48.119 --> 0:25:49.639
<v Speaker 1>in the case of the crew, So the ones you

0:25:49.760 --> 0:25:52.560
<v Speaker 1>mentioned on Aida, you know, those crew members were tested

0:25:52.600 --> 0:25:54.439
<v Speaker 1>before they left their home country, and then they were

0:25:54.560 --> 0:25:57.119
<v Speaker 1>tested again once they arrived in Germany and we got

0:25:57.240 --> 0:26:00.600
<v Speaker 1>some positives. They were then retested again and a couple

0:26:00.640 --> 0:26:02.879
<v Speaker 1>of in several of those cases the individuals got a

0:26:02.920 --> 0:26:05.480
<v Speaker 1>double negative test after that, which meant they had a

0:26:05.840 --> 0:26:10.119
<v Speaker 1>false positive, and then the others were obviously isolated in quarantine,

0:26:10.160 --> 0:26:12.760
<v Speaker 1>and so the risk of them spreading it on board

0:26:12.840 --> 0:26:15.959
<v Speaker 1>with zero, because we wouldn't have them sail. Okay. Now,

0:26:16.040 --> 0:26:19.000
<v Speaker 1>once you're at that level, the next question is what

0:26:19.119 --> 0:26:21.240
<v Speaker 1>else are you're doing to mitigate spread? And that's why

0:26:21.240 --> 0:26:24.200
<v Speaker 1>all the other practices on board. Any event you do

0:26:24.359 --> 0:26:27.200
<v Speaker 1>get someone on board who has COVID nineteen, if it's

0:26:27.280 --> 0:26:31.240
<v Speaker 1>in society, UM, if it's out there in general, chances

0:26:31.320 --> 0:26:33.800
<v Speaker 1>are you eventually will have someone on board the ship

0:26:33.920 --> 0:26:36.920
<v Speaker 1>that will have it. And so the trick then, of course,

0:26:37.000 --> 0:26:39.120
<v Speaker 1>is to make certain that you are able to quickly

0:26:39.200 --> 0:26:42.280
<v Speaker 1>identify that you can isolate the person and that during

0:26:42.320 --> 0:26:46.119
<v Speaker 1>the time they were exposed there was plenty of mitigation

0:26:46.200 --> 0:26:49.600
<v Speaker 1>of risk protocols in place, so the probability of spread

0:26:49.680 --> 0:26:52.919
<v Speaker 1>has been greatly reduced. And that's where you know, wearing masks,

0:26:53.080 --> 0:26:57.000
<v Speaker 1>physical distancing, washing your hands, um using a hand, sandit,

0:26:57.040 --> 0:26:59.440
<v Speaker 1>sizis that are all come into play. They do also

0:26:59.480 --> 0:27:02.960
<v Speaker 1>wonder know what are your plans for passengers and crew

0:27:03.040 --> 0:27:05.000
<v Speaker 1>members who do get sick in the future. You know,

0:27:05.359 --> 0:27:07.800
<v Speaker 1>you know the horror stories of ships that were you know,

0:27:07.880 --> 0:27:10.359
<v Speaker 1>basically lost at sea they couldn't find a homeport. You

0:27:10.640 --> 0:27:12.720
<v Speaker 1>I know and your team have spent you know, a

0:27:12.800 --> 0:27:15.400
<v Speaker 1>long time repatriating you know, your crew members back home.

0:27:15.480 --> 0:27:17.200
<v Speaker 1>So what do you do? Will there be a way

0:27:17.240 --> 0:27:21.239
<v Speaker 1>to airlift passengers off ships? What will you do? You're

0:27:21.240 --> 0:27:23.479
<v Speaker 1>absolutely right, you know, we had to repay trade over

0:27:23.640 --> 0:27:26.240
<v Speaker 1>eighty thousand crew members and it took us quite a

0:27:26.320 --> 0:27:30.160
<v Speaker 1>while with boorders closed and airlines shut down, et cetera.

0:27:30.280 --> 0:27:33.000
<v Speaker 1>So it took us several months to effectively do that,

0:27:33.080 --> 0:27:35.320
<v Speaker 1>but we were eventually able to do it. In regards

0:27:35.359 --> 0:27:37.880
<v Speaker 1>to now, you know, that was before now there's enough

0:27:38.000 --> 0:27:41.359
<v Speaker 1>understanding we would not go to a destination where we

0:27:41.440 --> 0:27:44.680
<v Speaker 1>did not have a plan already any event that there

0:27:44.800 --> 0:27:47.119
<v Speaker 1>was COVID on board. We're not going to tie up

0:27:47.160 --> 0:27:50.600
<v Speaker 1>thousands of people off of one positive COVID case or

0:27:50.600 --> 0:27:53.160
<v Speaker 1>a couple of positive COVID cases. You know, we would

0:27:53.160 --> 0:27:56.520
<v Speaker 1>have the protocols in place to ensure one that the

0:27:56.600 --> 0:27:59.280
<v Speaker 1>individual is taken care of whoever has it, that we

0:27:59.400 --> 0:28:01.800
<v Speaker 1>can get them the care they need, um. And then

0:28:01.920 --> 0:28:05.879
<v Speaker 1>number two that everyone else uh is an effected. You know,

0:28:06.000 --> 0:28:09.880
<v Speaker 1>we would have some form of contact tracing on boards

0:28:09.880 --> 0:28:11.800
<v Speaker 1>so we know who we're the most exposed people. But

0:28:11.880 --> 0:28:14.560
<v Speaker 1>we have to have those protocols for each destination. We

0:28:14.640 --> 0:28:17.800
<v Speaker 1>go to seven hundred ports and destinations around the world,

0:28:18.200 --> 0:28:20.120
<v Speaker 1>so they're all not going to have the exact same

0:28:20.200 --> 0:28:22.920
<v Speaker 1>protocols and and but we will not go to a

0:28:23.040 --> 0:28:27.600
<v Speaker 1>place where we haven't established exactly any event there is

0:28:27.680 --> 0:28:31.000
<v Speaker 1>a COVID case, exactly what's going to happen, all right,

0:28:31.040 --> 0:28:34.080
<v Speaker 1>But you're not worried about as we know, this virus

0:28:34.359 --> 0:28:38.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, spread so so quickly, um that you could

0:28:38.360 --> 0:28:40.760
<v Speaker 1>go out to see and end up with a handful

0:28:40.800 --> 0:28:44.120
<v Speaker 1>of passengers or a lot more passengers, hundreds of passengers

0:28:44.400 --> 0:28:46.400
<v Speaker 1>and be kind of stuck at sea again. I mean,

0:28:46.400 --> 0:28:48.560
<v Speaker 1>I'm just curious in that game, we won't we won't

0:28:48.600 --> 0:28:51.080
<v Speaker 1>sail on this situation where we could be stuck at sea.

0:28:51.280 --> 0:28:54.320
<v Speaker 1>I think again, there's a lot more knowledge now than

0:28:54.400 --> 0:28:57.560
<v Speaker 1>when that was happening. Number one, you know, we will

0:28:57.640 --> 0:29:00.760
<v Speaker 1>have some capability of testing on board. When that happened before,

0:29:00.840 --> 0:29:04.360
<v Speaker 1>we didn't. We Well, there's a lot of understanding now

0:29:04.400 --> 0:29:08.080
<v Speaker 1>about how to mitigate spread. Back then, nobody was talking about,

0:29:08.240 --> 0:29:11.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, why you were cruising. You know, potentially wearing

0:29:11.160 --> 0:29:15.560
<v Speaker 1>masks are physical distancing that that kind of thing. And similarly,

0:29:15.680 --> 0:29:18.600
<v Speaker 1>we have to look at the incidents of spreading a community.

0:29:18.960 --> 0:29:20.720
<v Speaker 1>You know, we're not going to probably sell out of

0:29:20.720 --> 0:29:23.160
<v Speaker 1>a community where the incidents are spread is very high

0:29:24.040 --> 0:29:26.240
<v Speaker 1>because you're almost certainly they're gonna have it, have it

0:29:26.320 --> 0:29:30.080
<v Speaker 1>on board. We have a great UM group of advisors

0:29:30.320 --> 0:29:33.440
<v Speaker 1>UM scientific advisors. A number of them participated in a

0:29:34.760 --> 0:29:37.360
<v Speaker 1>summit on COVID that we held with the World Travel

0:29:37.400 --> 0:29:40.280
<v Speaker 1>and Tourism Council. Wasn't about travel, it wasn't about cruise,

0:29:40.520 --> 0:29:43.080
<v Speaker 1>it was about the science of COVID and UM a

0:29:43.160 --> 0:29:45.880
<v Speaker 1>number of our advisors participated in that um that that

0:29:46.040 --> 0:29:49.479
<v Speaker 1>we we produced and and my co hosted with Gloria

0:29:49.520 --> 0:29:53.320
<v Speaker 1>Gavira from w TCC, and so we're using their advice.

0:29:53.440 --> 0:29:56.960
<v Speaker 1>And of course every destination is studying this, every port,

0:29:57.120 --> 0:30:03.080
<v Speaker 1>every city, every nation and is always be in compliance. UH.

0:30:03.160 --> 0:30:06.080
<v Speaker 1>And so we'll all have a protocol in place because

0:30:06.240 --> 0:30:09.680
<v Speaker 1>no one wants you know, thousands of people you know

0:30:09.800 --> 0:30:12.680
<v Speaker 1>stuck s C. Nobody wants, no doubt about that. I mean,

0:30:12.720 --> 0:30:14.840
<v Speaker 1>what are you hearing, Arnold right now from the CDC

0:30:15.080 --> 0:30:18.840
<v Speaker 1>about what they want to see specifically from Carnival before

0:30:19.200 --> 0:30:23.320
<v Speaker 1>heading out at sea again. Well, CDC is concentrating initially

0:30:23.440 --> 0:30:26.480
<v Speaker 1>on what we call the pause. You know a number

0:30:26.480 --> 0:30:29.200
<v Speaker 1>of US volunteer to stop sailing and so on. Then

0:30:29.240 --> 0:30:32.040
<v Speaker 1>the CDC issued on no sale orders and so they've

0:30:32.080 --> 0:30:34.760
<v Speaker 1>concentrated on the ships because even though we're in a pause,

0:30:35.600 --> 0:30:39.000
<v Speaker 1>we still have twelve thousand crew required to minimally man

0:30:39.120 --> 0:30:41.880
<v Speaker 1>our ships. The ships are still out there to still operating,

0:30:42.360 --> 0:30:45.280
<v Speaker 1>and so the CDC focus on that initially. UH. And

0:30:45.440 --> 0:30:49.560
<v Speaker 1>now they've started beginning to ask for public input and

0:30:50.160 --> 0:30:54.080
<v Speaker 1>UH to be submitted in terms of consideration for crews

0:30:54.160 --> 0:30:58.120
<v Speaker 1>going forward, But there have been no specific direction given

0:30:58.640 --> 0:31:02.440
<v Speaker 1>on what's expected, what we're gonna do is again use

0:31:02.560 --> 0:31:06.800
<v Speaker 1>our expert advisory group to inform us to use the

0:31:06.880 --> 0:31:10.440
<v Speaker 1>experiences around the world that we have and others have,

0:31:10.920 --> 0:31:14.200
<v Speaker 1>and we'll put together, you know, the appropriate protocol at

0:31:14.240 --> 0:31:17.480
<v Speaker 1>the time we think that it makes sense to begin

0:31:17.560 --> 0:31:22.120
<v Speaker 1>to consider cruising again. That's Carnival Corporation Presidency Arnold Donald.

0:31:22.240 --> 0:31:25.200
<v Speaker 1>Check out that full conversation. It is Jason our extra

0:31:25.280 --> 0:31:28.120
<v Speaker 1>podcast this week. It is indeed great conversation that wraps

0:31:28.200 --> 0:31:30.520
<v Speaker 1>up the first hour of the weekend edition of Bloomberg

0:31:30.520 --> 0:31:33.200
<v Speaker 1>Business Week from Bloomberg Radio. I'm Jason Kelly and I'm

0:31:33.240 --> 0:31:35.680
<v Speaker 1>Carol Masser. Plenty coming up in our next hour, including

0:31:35.720 --> 0:31:38.120
<v Speaker 1>the interview with the man who is called every presidential

0:31:38.200 --> 0:31:41.320
<v Speaker 1>election outcome correctly in the past four decades. Is my

0:31:41.400 --> 0:31:44.080
<v Speaker 1>favorite conversation of the week, I have to confess. Plus

0:31:44.160 --> 0:31:47.840
<v Speaker 1>another great conversation, Mind Buddy founder executive chairman Rick Stollmeyer.

0:31:47.920 --> 0:31:49.840
<v Speaker 1>He talked to us about the importance of wellness and

0:31:49.920 --> 0:31:53.400
<v Speaker 1>fitness during the pandemic. Fast moving business, no doubt about that.

0:31:53.600 --> 0:31:58.600
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

0:31:58.640 --> 0:32:03.160
<v Speaker 1>Masser and Jason Kelly from Bloomberg Radio. Carol Masser and

0:32:03.200 --> 0:32:05.680
<v Speaker 1>I'm Jason Kelly. Plenty ahead for you in this hour

0:32:05.800 --> 0:32:08.640
<v Speaker 1>of the weekend edition of Bloomberg Business Week. Don't worry

0:32:08.680 --> 0:32:12.240
<v Speaker 1>about the ads, the speeches, the debates, the tricks of

0:32:12.360 --> 0:32:17.040
<v Speaker 1>the campaign. Keep your eye on the big picture. American

0:32:17.160 --> 0:32:20.920
<v Speaker 1>University professor of history Alan Lickman. He is really really

0:32:21.080 --> 0:32:25.120
<v Speaker 1>good at predicting presidential elections. You're gonna be talking about

0:32:25.160 --> 0:32:28.400
<v Speaker 1>this one for sure. Plus Mind Body founder and executive

0:32:28.480 --> 0:32:31.800
<v Speaker 1>chairman Rick Stollmeyer. He's writing a book about how to

0:32:31.840 --> 0:32:35.000
<v Speaker 1>start a fitness company. He should know. He started when

0:32:35.120 --> 0:32:37.360
<v Speaker 1>in his garage. We're going to kick off this hour, though,

0:32:37.440 --> 0:32:40.600
<v Speaker 1>Jason with a very thoughtful conversation with Yates enterprise founder

0:32:40.680 --> 0:32:43.720
<v Speaker 1>and trauma surgeon Dr William Yates. He took his experiences

0:32:43.760 --> 0:32:46.520
<v Speaker 1>in the operating room created a company to help solve

0:32:46.560 --> 0:32:49.520
<v Speaker 1>some of our current problems like gun safety and the virus.

0:32:49.800 --> 0:32:51.720
<v Speaker 1>We caught up with him in Chicago and began with

0:32:51.800 --> 0:32:54.640
<v Speaker 1>asking how his city is doing. To go outside, it

0:32:54.720 --> 0:32:57.360
<v Speaker 1>looks like a ghost town. The schools are paralyzed. They

0:32:57.400 --> 0:33:00.240
<v Speaker 1>don't know what to do. The people that constitute Wins

0:33:00.280 --> 0:33:04.120
<v Speaker 1>are afraid, they're anxious, they're unsure about the future. When

0:33:04.160 --> 0:33:06.800
<v Speaker 1>I'm out all the time, people say, Doc, what's gonna happen?

0:33:06.880 --> 0:33:09.600
<v Speaker 1>What are we gonna do? Not to mention it's an

0:33:09.640 --> 0:33:13.720
<v Speaker 1>economic catastrophe here. The Tribute just wrote an article four

0:33:13.800 --> 0:33:17.000
<v Speaker 1>thousand small businesses have gone out of business, and they

0:33:17.080 --> 0:33:19.440
<v Speaker 1>expect a lot more to go out of business even

0:33:19.600 --> 0:33:23.560
<v Speaker 1>with all that stimulus check money. And of course one

0:33:23.600 --> 0:33:25.320
<v Speaker 1>of the good things I see this come out the

0:33:25.560 --> 0:33:29.480
<v Speaker 1>digital dependence is like increase which has made you know,

0:33:29.920 --> 0:33:33.920
<v Speaker 1>remote work better, telemedicine and e commerce is kind of flourishing.

0:33:34.240 --> 0:33:37.040
<v Speaker 1>But other than that, it's pretty much bad news. I

0:33:37.080 --> 0:33:39.160
<v Speaker 1>would say, well, and you know, it's interesting that you

0:33:39.240 --> 0:33:43.560
<v Speaker 1>bring that up up. I do wonder, Dr Yates. You know, unfortunately,

0:33:43.720 --> 0:33:47.560
<v Speaker 1>times of stress and disconnect often lead to better ways

0:33:47.600 --> 0:33:49.520
<v Speaker 1>of doing things. And I do wonder as you look

0:33:49.560 --> 0:33:51.680
<v Speaker 1>at this world, and I don't want to see anybody

0:33:51.800 --> 0:33:53.560
<v Speaker 1>lose their business. I don't want to see anybody be

0:33:53.600 --> 0:33:56.240
<v Speaker 1>out of work. Um, but I do wonder do we

0:33:56.320 --> 0:33:58.880
<v Speaker 1>get to a better side, whether it's you know how

0:33:58.960 --> 0:34:01.920
<v Speaker 1>you run business in businesses, how you do things you

0:34:02.000 --> 0:34:05.600
<v Speaker 1>know more online, more digitally, you know how education is run.

0:34:05.680 --> 0:34:07.760
<v Speaker 1>Do we get to a better side of medical you know,

0:34:07.920 --> 0:34:10.879
<v Speaker 1>we see a lot more telemedicine happening. Do we get

0:34:10.920 --> 0:34:12.799
<v Speaker 1>to a better side in your view, because I feel

0:34:12.800 --> 0:34:15.200
<v Speaker 1>like you understand kind of the old ways of doing

0:34:15.280 --> 0:34:19.799
<v Speaker 1>something and then also embracing technology right well, I mean

0:34:19.880 --> 0:34:23.400
<v Speaker 1>in every catastrophe, something good comes out of it. And

0:34:23.480 --> 0:34:25.920
<v Speaker 1>I say, what I see good coming out of this

0:34:26.160 --> 0:34:29.040
<v Speaker 1>right now is that everybody has to be aware of,

0:34:29.120 --> 0:34:31.719
<v Speaker 1>say of the business supply chain, that we can't be

0:34:31.920 --> 0:34:35.320
<v Speaker 1>dependent on other countries to feed us. That we have

0:34:35.520 --> 0:34:39.839
<v Speaker 1>to become autonomous and we're that's very clear without explaining why.

0:34:40.280 --> 0:34:43.840
<v Speaker 1>And the other thing is the digital platform has shown

0:34:43.920 --> 0:34:47.040
<v Speaker 1>us how sophisticated it can be and how good it is.

0:34:47.120 --> 0:34:50.160
<v Speaker 1>Say it like for education, I was thinking that, you know,

0:34:50.280 --> 0:34:52.799
<v Speaker 1>some of the best teachers in the world can now

0:34:53.040 --> 0:34:56.200
<v Speaker 1>reach some of the worst schools in the world with

0:34:56.440 --> 0:34:59.640
<v Speaker 1>the digital platform, so that can be expanded. That's something

0:35:00.120 --> 0:35:02.400
<v Speaker 1>good has come out. And I think the other thing

0:35:02.520 --> 0:35:05.360
<v Speaker 1>that we should concentrate on there should be more information

0:35:05.520 --> 0:35:09.920
<v Speaker 1>sharing between countries globally, because if that had happened in

0:35:10.000 --> 0:35:12.279
<v Speaker 1>the beginning, I don't think, you know, we'd be in

0:35:12.320 --> 0:35:15.640
<v Speaker 1>this situation. So that's what I think the best things

0:35:15.719 --> 0:35:18.120
<v Speaker 1>that have come out of this and other than we

0:35:18.239 --> 0:35:20.840
<v Speaker 1>all have to be united, which has not happened in

0:35:20.920 --> 0:35:23.480
<v Speaker 1>the United States. Is so fragmented. These people do this,

0:35:24.080 --> 0:35:27.560
<v Speaker 1>these do that. That's why the numbers keep increasing. Well

0:35:27.600 --> 0:35:30.680
<v Speaker 1>and dr yates what one area of fragmentation for sure

0:35:31.040 --> 0:35:33.400
<v Speaker 1>is something you alluded to, which is the world of education,

0:35:33.640 --> 0:35:35.359
<v Speaker 1>and Caroline, I talked about it all the time from

0:35:35.400 --> 0:35:39.040
<v Speaker 1>a personal perspective, both at school aged kids. Um, you know,

0:35:39.120 --> 0:35:41.680
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing these headlines from University of North Carolina, We're

0:35:41.719 --> 0:35:44.640
<v Speaker 1>seeing it from you know, all sorts of places across

0:35:44.680 --> 0:35:46.600
<v Speaker 1>the country. New York City sort of going its own

0:35:46.640 --> 0:35:49.279
<v Speaker 1>way versus Los Angeles and San Francisco and Washington, d C.

0:35:49.440 --> 0:35:51.840
<v Speaker 1>And other places. I read a great New York article

0:35:51.840 --> 0:35:55.160
<v Speaker 1>today about love at school down in my hometown of Atlanta.

0:35:55.520 --> 0:35:58.439
<v Speaker 1>How should we be thinking about schools? This is something

0:35:58.560 --> 0:36:02.200
<v Speaker 1>you've done some specific work. You've got equipment installed in

0:36:02.360 --> 0:36:05.279
<v Speaker 1>schools doing thermal temperature checks. But how should we be

0:36:05.400 --> 0:36:09.720
<v Speaker 1>thinking about education? I think there's a way to actually

0:36:09.800 --> 0:36:13.160
<v Speaker 1>go back to school and go back safely. College is

0:36:13.239 --> 0:36:16.840
<v Speaker 1>another aspect of this, because you have a school basically

0:36:16.960 --> 0:36:20.680
<v Speaker 1>with an assisted living facility. So that's something altogether different.

0:36:21.200 --> 0:36:23.600
<v Speaker 1>But I think schools can open safely if you do

0:36:23.719 --> 0:36:26.360
<v Speaker 1>a couple of things. Are actually four things. Protect the

0:36:26.480 --> 0:36:29.640
<v Speaker 1>students and everyone knows what that means, wearing a mask,

0:36:29.840 --> 0:36:33.600
<v Speaker 1>standing six ft apart um, sanitizing, and then you need

0:36:33.680 --> 0:36:37.920
<v Speaker 1>to screen for potential patients or kids or anyone that

0:36:38.000 --> 0:36:39.640
<v Speaker 1>has the virus. And the way that you do that

0:36:39.880 --> 0:36:43.600
<v Speaker 1>is questionnaires seem to be good, and also with objective

0:36:43.680 --> 0:36:47.440
<v Speaker 1>data of fever because anybody who's infected, the number one

0:36:47.520 --> 0:36:49.680
<v Speaker 1>sign is usually going to be a fever. Now that

0:36:49.760 --> 0:36:53.160
<v Speaker 1>won't catch the asymptomatic people, but still we know that

0:36:53.280 --> 0:36:56.359
<v Speaker 1>people who are symptomatic will have a fever. The third

0:36:56.440 --> 0:36:59.880
<v Speaker 1>thing I think is just broad testing, baseline testing. Everybody

0:37:00.040 --> 0:37:02.640
<v Speaker 1>has to be tested and has to be tested often

0:37:03.000 --> 0:37:06.200
<v Speaker 1>to know if they've contracted the virus. And fourth is

0:37:06.239 --> 0:37:11.440
<v Speaker 1>basically tracking. When you see clusters, you have to track, isolate, quarantine,

0:37:11.520 --> 0:37:15.040
<v Speaker 1>whatever you need to do. And in the school system specifically,

0:37:15.239 --> 0:37:18.880
<v Speaker 1>we've also developed kind of pod units where the students

0:37:19.080 --> 0:37:22.960
<v Speaker 1>can be separated by best basically a plastic partition. And

0:37:23.080 --> 0:37:25.600
<v Speaker 1>it's no way if you do these things. If everybody

0:37:25.680 --> 0:37:28.480
<v Speaker 1>does it, the teachers, administrators and the students you will

0:37:28.520 --> 0:37:32.000
<v Speaker 1>not get coronavirus. So I gotta say it was fascinating

0:37:32.280 --> 0:37:35.080
<v Speaker 1>reading about your background. Tell me how you came to

0:37:35.200 --> 0:37:38.960
<v Speaker 1>be a trauma surgeon to or tell our audience, since

0:37:39.000 --> 0:37:41.040
<v Speaker 1>I've already read a little bit about it, tell our

0:37:41.040 --> 0:37:43.080
<v Speaker 1>audience about how you went from being a trauma surgeon

0:37:43.160 --> 0:37:46.200
<v Speaker 1>to creating this company, and why you decided to focus on,

0:37:47.040 --> 0:37:51.759
<v Speaker 1>you know, these various devices, whether it's metal detectors or

0:37:51.880 --> 0:37:55.000
<v Speaker 1>whether it's you know, being able to take temperatures. Tell

0:37:55.080 --> 0:37:59.840
<v Speaker 1>us a bit about that progress. Well. As a trauma surgeon,

0:38:00.080 --> 0:38:03.640
<v Speaker 1>I just became irritated with hearing over and over again

0:38:03.719 --> 0:38:07.319
<v Speaker 1>about mass school shootings and violence and all the pain

0:38:07.560 --> 0:38:10.120
<v Speaker 1>that it causes on the back end and the front end.

0:38:10.600 --> 0:38:14.000
<v Speaker 1>So I always felt that a simple solution was being missed,

0:38:14.440 --> 0:38:19.240
<v Speaker 1>such as metal detectors just being deployed in schools, open areas,

0:38:19.640 --> 0:38:22.680
<v Speaker 1>municipalities and the like. So what I did was I

0:38:22.719 --> 0:38:27.960
<v Speaker 1>started a company partnered with the manufacturer, started distributing metal

0:38:28.040 --> 0:38:32.439
<v Speaker 1>detectors X ray equipment to different schools. Anybody that would

0:38:32.520 --> 0:38:35.480
<v Speaker 1>listen to me about the effectiveness of this equipment, and

0:38:35.520 --> 0:38:39.080
<v Speaker 1>that's the enterprise founder Dr William Yates and entrepreneur, a

0:38:39.239 --> 0:38:42.440
<v Speaker 1>trauma surgeon, and really someone who's trying to make the

0:38:42.480 --> 0:38:45.560
<v Speaker 1>world a better place. Carol, Yeah, taking his firsthand experience

0:38:45.640 --> 0:38:48.480
<v Speaker 1>and fixing some of today's vexing problems. You're listening to

0:38:48.520 --> 0:38:50.919
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week. Up next, The Keys to the White

0:38:50.960 --> 0:38:53.520
<v Speaker 1>House from the history professor who has correctly called the

0:38:53.600 --> 0:38:59.440
<v Speaker 1>last four years of presidential elections. This is Bloomberg. This

0:38:59.760 --> 0:39:03.280
<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly

0:39:03.640 --> 0:39:07.200
<v Speaker 1>from Bloomberg Radio. Well, Carol, so much going on this week,

0:39:07.280 --> 0:39:10.680
<v Speaker 1>but politics front and center because we're seventy plus days

0:39:10.680 --> 0:39:13.160
<v Speaker 1>away from a big election. And Jason, safe to say,

0:39:13.160 --> 0:39:15.400
<v Speaker 1>one of our more entertaining interviews this week it was

0:39:15.440 --> 0:39:19.040
<v Speaker 1>with Alan Lickman. He's distinguished professor of history at American University.

0:39:19.360 --> 0:39:22.360
<v Speaker 1>He has a predictive model for figuring out US presidential

0:39:22.400 --> 0:39:25.440
<v Speaker 1>winners and you know what, everybody, it consistently works. The

0:39:25.800 --> 0:39:30.560
<v Speaker 1>fundamental insight behind the Keys model is that elections are

0:39:30.760 --> 0:39:35.919
<v Speaker 1>essentially votes up or down on the strength and performance

0:39:36.120 --> 0:39:39.360
<v Speaker 1>of the party holding the White House. That's what the

0:39:39.480 --> 0:39:43.720
<v Speaker 1>thirteen Keys gauge. So forget the polls, forget the pundit

0:39:44.080 --> 0:39:46.880
<v Speaker 1>to get who's up and down on a daily basis.

0:39:47.320 --> 0:39:50.640
<v Speaker 1>Don't worry about the ads, the speeches, the debates, the

0:39:50.760 --> 0:39:55.600
<v Speaker 1>tricks of the campaign. Keep your eye on the big picture.

0:39:55.960 --> 0:39:58.200
<v Speaker 1>And that's what the Keys looked at, the big picture

0:39:58.520 --> 0:40:02.040
<v Speaker 1>of incumbent strength and for formers things like a midterm

0:40:02.080 --> 0:40:06.680
<v Speaker 1>election results, third parties, long and short term economy, scandal,

0:40:06.960 --> 0:40:12.800
<v Speaker 1>social undress, policy change, foreign policy successes and faigures. And

0:40:12.880 --> 0:40:16.280
<v Speaker 1>the way it works, it's six or more of the keys.

0:40:16.400 --> 0:40:19.960
<v Speaker 1>Any six or more, it's nonlinear go against the party

0:40:20.040 --> 0:40:24.080
<v Speaker 1>holding the White House. They are predicted losers, fewer than six,

0:40:24.440 --> 0:40:28.560
<v Speaker 1>they are predicted winners. All right, So take us back

0:40:28.760 --> 0:40:33.160
<v Speaker 1>to before we get to this current election that we're experiencing,

0:40:33.480 --> 0:40:38.360
<v Speaker 1>take us back briefly to what was it that ultimately

0:40:38.520 --> 0:40:42.360
<v Speaker 1>tipped it to Canada. Trump. Yeah, that was probably the

0:40:42.440 --> 0:40:46.000
<v Speaker 1>most difficult and closest call I've ever made in my

0:40:46.160 --> 0:40:49.439
<v Speaker 1>Washington Post interview or I predicted Trump's when I said,

0:40:49.680 --> 0:40:53.440
<v Speaker 1>the Keys very very narrowly point to Trump. And you know, uh,

0:40:54.080 --> 0:40:57.239
<v Speaker 1>I hate to say it, but Bernie Sanders one of

0:40:57.320 --> 0:41:00.480
<v Speaker 1>the Keys, and this was exactly a six key elections.

0:41:00.520 --> 0:41:03.839
<v Speaker 1>So if any he had not turned Clinton would have one,

0:41:03.880 --> 0:41:07.360
<v Speaker 1>and one of the keys that turned was the internal

0:41:07.960 --> 0:41:11.840
<v Speaker 1>nomination contest for the party holding the lighthouse by so

0:41:12.280 --> 0:41:17.640
<v Speaker 1>strongly contesting Hillary Clinton. Uh. Bernie Sanders turned to kay,

0:41:17.680 --> 0:41:20.400
<v Speaker 1>I'm not blaming him. He as a right to do that.

0:41:20.920 --> 0:41:23.440
<v Speaker 1>But that was a very close call. Another very close

0:41:23.520 --> 0:41:26.560
<v Speaker 1>call was the third parties, which we know were quite

0:41:26.640 --> 0:41:30.399
<v Speaker 1>strong in two thousand and sixteen. Gary Johnson went over

0:41:31.920 --> 0:41:34.360
<v Speaker 1>in some of the polls. So those were two of

0:41:34.400 --> 0:41:38.680
<v Speaker 1>the late breaking keys that were incredibly close that turned

0:41:38.719 --> 0:41:42.200
<v Speaker 1>the tide against the Democrats, along with other keys such

0:41:42.320 --> 0:41:47.040
<v Speaker 1>as the lack of a big foreign policy achievement, not

0:41:47.400 --> 0:41:50.880
<v Speaker 1>following up the Affordable Care Act with Republicans in control

0:41:50.920 --> 0:41:55.080
<v Speaker 1>of Congress with another big policy change, losing uh the

0:41:55.160 --> 0:41:59.040
<v Speaker 1>mid term election. Very very tight and tough call. This

0:41:59.239 --> 0:42:01.680
<v Speaker 1>is what's the call away, But go ahead now, please

0:42:01.680 --> 0:42:04.279
<v Speaker 1>go ahead. Right here on my wall, I have this

0:42:04.440 --> 0:42:07.640
<v Speaker 1>note written on a copy of the Washington Post ride

0:42:07.719 --> 0:42:11.600
<v Speaker 1>predicted Trump swin that says professor, congrats, good call, and

0:42:11.760 --> 0:42:16.560
<v Speaker 1>big sharpie letters signed Donald J. Trump. So they followed,

0:42:16.640 --> 0:42:19.120
<v Speaker 1>they follow this. It's so cool though, these thirteen keys,

0:42:19.200 --> 0:42:22.239
<v Speaker 1>and you've mentioned something. You've mentioned them strong long term economy,

0:42:22.719 --> 0:42:26.480
<v Speaker 1>strong short term economy, you know, a third party scandal,

0:42:27.360 --> 0:42:32.680
<v Speaker 1>um for military success, no, social unrest, um, charismatic incumbent,

0:42:32.960 --> 0:42:35.719
<v Speaker 1>un charismatic challenger. I mean, these are the things that

0:42:35.800 --> 0:42:39.680
<v Speaker 1>you're looking at. It's not just about the economy stupid

0:42:39.800 --> 0:42:43.800
<v Speaker 1>as so many have said. No, that's a huge mistake

0:42:44.280 --> 0:42:47.000
<v Speaker 1>that a lot of analysts have made. If you were

0:42:47.239 --> 0:42:49.719
<v Speaker 1>just looking at the economy, Hillary Clinton should have won

0:42:49.840 --> 0:42:53.160
<v Speaker 1>going away. The economy was quite strong in two thousand

0:42:53.600 --> 0:42:56.000
<v Speaker 1>and sixteen. Voters are not that never mind. That's the

0:42:56.640 --> 0:43:00.040
<v Speaker 1>two things that make the keys different is one, I

0:43:00.080 --> 0:43:03.880
<v Speaker 1>don't look at any of the conventional campaigning, pole driven

0:43:04.239 --> 0:43:08.520
<v Speaker 1>punditry models. And two they're not fixated on the economy

0:43:08.680 --> 0:43:13.400
<v Speaker 1>like most econometric and political science models. All right, so

0:43:13.840 --> 0:43:17.160
<v Speaker 1>let's talk about this election. Uh if we can. Um,

0:43:17.800 --> 0:43:21.320
<v Speaker 1>as you go through the keys, how close is it

0:43:21.640 --> 0:43:23.920
<v Speaker 1>and what are the things you're most focused on? As

0:43:23.960 --> 0:43:27.040
<v Speaker 1>you say, it's nonlinear, but they really As you were

0:43:27.120 --> 0:43:29.640
<v Speaker 1>going through all those keys, I'm going check check, check,

0:43:29.800 --> 0:43:34.359
<v Speaker 1>check check. Talk Yeah exactly, So talk to us about

0:43:34.400 --> 0:43:37.719
<v Speaker 1>what this looks like. Yeah, so I'll break it up.

0:43:37.880 --> 0:43:40.359
<v Speaker 1>The end of two thousand nineteen, Trump was only down

0:43:40.680 --> 0:43:44.359
<v Speaker 1>four keys. You have two key cushion uh demandate key.

0:43:44.480 --> 0:43:49.319
<v Speaker 1>Obviously they had lost in the mid term elections. Scandal key.

0:43:49.520 --> 0:43:52.880
<v Speaker 1>You know, the only h only the third president in

0:43:52.920 --> 0:43:55.439
<v Speaker 1>the history impeached by the full House. Not to mention

0:43:55.520 --> 0:43:59.640
<v Speaker 1>other issues, the lack of a big foreign policy success

0:43:59.719 --> 0:44:02.600
<v Speaker 1>any where in the world. Am I most controversial on

0:44:02.719 --> 0:44:05.520
<v Speaker 1>the fact that he was not one of those once

0:44:05.600 --> 0:44:10.520
<v Speaker 1>in a generation truly inspirational candidates with groat appeal like

0:44:10.680 --> 0:44:13.200
<v Speaker 1>Reagan in the nineteen eighties who brought in all those

0:44:13.320 --> 0:44:17.160
<v Speaker 1>raigan Democrats. Trump's strong approval rating is only between twenty

0:44:17.239 --> 0:44:21.439
<v Speaker 1>five and six and more. Don't like him and don't

0:44:21.480 --> 0:44:23.640
<v Speaker 1>think he's on it, but he was only down four.

0:44:24.040 --> 0:44:27.000
<v Speaker 1>Then we get hit with the pandemic and the crist

0:44:27.080 --> 0:44:31.239
<v Speaker 1>for social and racial justice and what Trump acknowledge My

0:44:31.520 --> 0:44:36.080
<v Speaker 1>prediction he didn't understand the system, which is remember it's governing,

0:44:36.520 --> 0:44:41.080
<v Speaker 1>not campaigning that counts. And instead of substantively dealing with

0:44:41.200 --> 0:44:44.600
<v Speaker 1>these problems, he reverted to his two thousand and sixteen

0:44:44.680 --> 0:44:47.319
<v Speaker 1>playbook and thought he can talk his way out of him.

0:44:47.320 --> 0:44:50.200
<v Speaker 1>It didn't work. It cost him three more keys. The

0:44:50.320 --> 0:44:53.680
<v Speaker 1>short term economy key, which is defined by an election

0:44:53.800 --> 0:44:58.200
<v Speaker 1>year recession, which we have the long term economy. He

0:44:58.760 --> 0:45:01.680
<v Speaker 1>because we had such a negative growth that brought this

0:45:01.920 --> 0:45:06.479
<v Speaker 1>average well down and the social unrescued because of what's

0:45:06.600 --> 0:45:09.640
<v Speaker 1>raging across the land. Never in the history of the

0:45:09.760 --> 0:45:13.319
<v Speaker 1>United States has the party holding the White House experienced

0:45:13.719 --> 0:45:17.239
<v Speaker 1>such a dramatic reversal of fortune. In a matter of

0:45:17.320 --> 0:45:20.640
<v Speaker 1>three months, Trump goes from four keys down to seven

0:45:20.719 --> 0:45:24.040
<v Speaker 1>keys down, one more than is needed to predict that

0:45:24.200 --> 0:45:27.239
<v Speaker 1>he is going to lose in November. You have been

0:45:27.719 --> 0:45:31.680
<v Speaker 1>spot on for forty years, but you've also back tested

0:45:31.760 --> 0:45:34.480
<v Speaker 1>it for a hundred twenty years of US presidential history.

0:45:34.480 --> 0:45:37.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you checked it out and it has really

0:45:37.120 --> 0:45:38.880
<v Speaker 1>panned out. But I've got to ask you, and I

0:45:38.960 --> 0:45:41.800
<v Speaker 1>know other people have have um kind of pushed you

0:45:41.880 --> 0:45:46.319
<v Speaker 1>on this. You did call al Gore in two thousand. Yes, yes, yes, Look,

0:45:46.840 --> 0:45:49.239
<v Speaker 1>I'll make two comments on that one. You want to

0:45:49.280 --> 0:45:51.560
<v Speaker 1>say I'm right out of eight of nine, that's fine.

0:45:53.320 --> 0:45:58.239
<v Speaker 1>I like how you think, Uh, what was the right call?

0:45:58.880 --> 0:46:02.040
<v Speaker 1>In two thousand, I correctly called al Gore to win

0:46:02.160 --> 0:46:05.400
<v Speaker 1>the popular vote. He didn't win the electoral college because

0:46:05.480 --> 0:46:07.520
<v Speaker 1>he lost by five or and thirty seven votes in

0:46:07.600 --> 0:46:10.520
<v Speaker 1>Florida when the Streme Court stopped the recount. That was

0:46:10.560 --> 0:46:14.920
<v Speaker 1>a stolen election. Al Gore should have won Florida going away.

0:46:15.120 --> 0:46:17.920
<v Speaker 1>And I proved this in my two thousand and one

0:46:18.000 --> 0:46:21.759
<v Speaker 1>report to the United States Commission on Civil Rights, when

0:46:21.800 --> 0:46:27.239
<v Speaker 1>I showed that there was this huge disproportion of discarded

0:46:27.320 --> 0:46:31.080
<v Speaker 1>votes between African Americans and Lights. And then if you

0:46:31.239 --> 0:46:35.600
<v Speaker 1>correctly assess the intention of voters about that suppression, al

0:46:35.680 --> 0:46:40.040
<v Speaker 1>Gore would have won going away. That's American University Professor

0:46:40.080 --> 0:46:43.720
<v Speaker 1>of History Alan Lickman, voter suppression something that is he noted,

0:46:43.760 --> 0:46:46.560
<v Speaker 1>we are concerned about again along with foreign meddling. Jason,

0:46:46.600 --> 0:46:50.560
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to this November's outcome. Absolutely love that conversation.

0:46:50.640 --> 0:46:52.799
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Coming up, we head

0:46:52.800 --> 0:46:55.799
<v Speaker 1>to Miami check in with the seat of the related group.

0:46:55.880 --> 0:46:59.279
<v Speaker 1>He's been watching real estate for four decades. There's a

0:46:59.400 --> 0:47:03.239
<v Speaker 1>lot come yeah, and some interesting new trends. This is Bloomberg.

0:47:05.520 --> 0:47:09.040
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason

0:47:09.160 --> 0:47:14.160
<v Speaker 1>Kelly from Bloomberg Radio. Well real estate, Carol, we know

0:47:14.440 --> 0:47:17.560
<v Speaker 1>it is a fascinating area, very important where you live

0:47:17.800 --> 0:47:20.319
<v Speaker 1>and how you live. One guy who knows a ton

0:47:20.400 --> 0:47:24.040
<v Speaker 1>about that related group CEO or hey, perez right, They've

0:47:24.040 --> 0:47:26.640
<v Speaker 1>got a portfolio of more than forty billion in real

0:47:26.760 --> 0:47:30.120
<v Speaker 1>estate holdings, largely a Jason in South Florida. And before

0:47:30.200 --> 0:47:33.800
<v Speaker 1>getting into property trends and the real estate market, we

0:47:33.880 --> 0:47:35.959
<v Speaker 1>did ask him about the virus in his home state

0:47:36.120 --> 0:47:38.719
<v Speaker 1>and home city. Yes, you know, we have not reacted

0:47:38.840 --> 0:47:42.120
<v Speaker 1>well in Miami to the virus. It's been a bit

0:47:42.239 --> 0:47:47.800
<v Speaker 1>of an epicenter of new cases. UM. We've you know,

0:47:47.960 --> 0:47:51.080
<v Speaker 1>opened up and then had to close back up the

0:47:51.320 --> 0:47:56.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, the interior restaurants, interior of restaurants. UM. And uh,

0:47:56.280 --> 0:48:02.960
<v Speaker 1>it's been not an easy ride here. UM. Unfortunately, we UM,

0:48:03.560 --> 0:48:07.279
<v Speaker 1>we're not so good here at following instructions. A very

0:48:07.320 --> 0:48:10.759
<v Speaker 1>surprised that I still go out for a walk and uh,

0:48:11.160 --> 0:48:13.600
<v Speaker 1>almost half the people are not wearing masks and in

0:48:13.719 --> 0:48:16.879
<v Speaker 1>the streets. So UM, we need to do a much

0:48:16.920 --> 0:48:22.319
<v Speaker 1>better job at at following directions and and and keeping safe. UM.

0:48:23.120 --> 0:48:27.680
<v Speaker 1>Other than that, you know, Miami has been helped in

0:48:27.800 --> 0:48:32.960
<v Speaker 1>a way by the movement of people from the northeast, UM,

0:48:33.239 --> 0:48:37.680
<v Speaker 1>towards Miami. We we had been seeing that um previously

0:48:37.920 --> 0:48:43.120
<v Speaker 1>previously to the pandemic UM due to the high taxes

0:48:43.239 --> 0:48:47.280
<v Speaker 1>in in places like New York. I think this has accelerated.

0:48:47.400 --> 0:48:49.719
<v Speaker 1>You know, our single family luxury home has been doing

0:48:49.840 --> 0:48:55.799
<v Speaker 1>extremely well. UM A lot of buyers looking to move UM,

0:48:56.560 --> 0:49:01.480
<v Speaker 1>carl Icon and other Wall Street people have uh made

0:49:01.520 --> 0:49:06.000
<v Speaker 1>the announcement that they're moving permanently down to Miami from

0:49:06.080 --> 0:49:10.800
<v Speaker 1>New York and other areas. So in in in that respect,

0:49:10.920 --> 0:49:13.960
<v Speaker 1>I think we are the beneficiaries. You know, the open air,

0:49:15.200 --> 0:49:18.440
<v Speaker 1>the sea, the ocean. I just came from from a

0:49:18.480 --> 0:49:21.080
<v Speaker 1>house that we have an aspen and aspen is even

0:49:21.360 --> 0:49:24.360
<v Speaker 1>that on steroids. Everybody wants to now own a house

0:49:25.160 --> 0:49:30.120
<v Speaker 1>in places that they see as being less congested, less

0:49:30.200 --> 0:49:34.720
<v Speaker 1>prone to um catching the buyrus. Yeah, it is pretty amazing.

0:49:35.239 --> 0:49:38.040
<v Speaker 1>So when you think about you know, you're in the

0:49:38.560 --> 0:49:42.480
<v Speaker 1>entire portfolio and also things that are in development and

0:49:42.760 --> 0:49:45.600
<v Speaker 1>under construction, wor Hey, how has that part of it

0:49:45.840 --> 0:49:48.919
<v Speaker 1>gone in terms of your ability to sort of keep

0:49:49.040 --> 0:49:53.600
<v Speaker 1>going with your business? Well, we we've been. It's been

0:49:53.640 --> 0:49:55.840
<v Speaker 1>a radical change. You know. We we had to be

0:49:56.360 --> 0:50:00.640
<v Speaker 1>very rapidly throughout how do we work efficient and first

0:50:00.640 --> 0:50:03.760
<v Speaker 1>from home and then how do we make our office

0:50:03.880 --> 0:50:07.759
<v Speaker 1>safe for employees to return and and work there. You know,

0:50:07.880 --> 0:50:12.000
<v Speaker 1>we we we reacted very rapidly to that. UM. You know,

0:50:12.200 --> 0:50:17.160
<v Speaker 1>zoom has become you know, the new trend. We communicate

0:50:17.280 --> 0:50:22.359
<v Speaker 1>every day. UM. We've set up UM what what's op

0:50:22.600 --> 0:50:26.719
<v Speaker 1>system and a text system so all the key executives

0:50:26.800 --> 0:50:31.399
<v Speaker 1>and and their groups are constantly in communication. So our

0:50:31.520 --> 0:50:38.799
<v Speaker 1>technology has improved tremendously UM because of the virus. I think, uh,

0:50:38.920 --> 0:50:41.920
<v Speaker 1>this is something that we're going to see into the future.

0:50:42.120 --> 0:50:45.000
<v Speaker 1>You know, we we have become much better, much more

0:50:45.040 --> 0:50:50.480
<v Speaker 1>efficient at working from home, at communicating without being face

0:50:50.600 --> 0:50:55.200
<v Speaker 1>to face. But it's been a real change in the

0:50:55.320 --> 0:50:59.440
<v Speaker 1>way UM we we communicate, we talk to people, we

0:50:59.600 --> 0:51:03.759
<v Speaker 1>execut you orders. UM. Fortunately for us, we are in

0:51:03.840 --> 0:51:07.400
<v Speaker 1>the multi family business, which is probably the sector that

0:51:07.560 --> 0:51:13.319
<v Speaker 1>has been least affected UM by the virus. Retail as

0:51:13.400 --> 0:51:19.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, and hotels UM, convention places, restaurants UM have

0:51:19.560 --> 0:51:22.960
<v Speaker 1>all been affected to a much greater extent than we have.

0:51:23.760 --> 0:51:29.360
<v Speaker 1>Our collections UM have in these months been all over

0:51:31.480 --> 0:51:35.600
<v Speaker 1>which is UM you know above the national lapp UM.

0:51:36.440 --> 0:51:40.560
<v Speaker 1>So you know, we have been relatively lucky as a

0:51:40.680 --> 0:51:44.440
<v Speaker 1>company in that we've adapted rapidly. We dropped a lot

0:51:44.520 --> 0:51:48.160
<v Speaker 1>of the urban jobs, all the retail jobs. We moved

0:51:48.239 --> 0:51:53.080
<v Speaker 1>suburb to suburban locations UM rapidly in our development and

0:51:53.160 --> 0:51:56.480
<v Speaker 1>I think for the next at least year, that is

0:51:56.560 --> 0:52:01.400
<v Speaker 1>going to be the preferred UM housing type. You know,

0:52:01.600 --> 0:52:07.040
<v Speaker 1>people are afraid of being in close environment UM. So

0:52:07.239 --> 0:52:10.400
<v Speaker 1>I think we can see it. Are high rises have

0:52:10.560 --> 0:52:14.359
<v Speaker 1>taken a much greater hit than our suburban products UM

0:52:14.800 --> 0:52:16.840
<v Speaker 1>and and and it's been a shift, you know. And

0:52:17.600 --> 0:52:20.080
<v Speaker 1>we are used to, you know, Florida. I always think

0:52:20.120 --> 0:52:22.480
<v Speaker 1>of Florida as a roller coaster, so we're used to

0:52:22.680 --> 0:52:25.440
<v Speaker 1>up and down and up and down and moving very

0:52:25.640 --> 0:52:28.840
<v Speaker 1>rapidly to adapt the change. That's the related group CEO

0:52:29.000 --> 0:52:31.440
<v Speaker 1>Jorge Perez and Jason as we just heard from him,

0:52:31.560 --> 0:52:33.960
<v Speaker 1>it's all about the pivot related group to that very

0:52:34.040 --> 0:52:37.799
<v Speaker 1>quickly moving from urban to suburban projects during the pandemic. Yeah,

0:52:37.880 --> 0:52:39.719
<v Speaker 1>the city's the burbs where people are going to live.

0:52:39.840 --> 0:52:42.279
<v Speaker 1>It's one of the big questions we keep asking. You're

0:52:42.320 --> 0:52:44.800
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business this week, One thing we know

0:52:45.080 --> 0:52:48.320
<v Speaker 1>people are working out. We discussed the importance of wellness

0:52:48.360 --> 0:52:51.080
<v Speaker 1>amid the new world order. Our conversation with mind Body

0:52:51.120 --> 0:52:54.920
<v Speaker 1>founder Rick Stallmeyer it is so important. This is Bloomberg

0:53:04.239 --> 0:53:08.160
<v Speaker 1>Vases Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly

0:53:08.520 --> 0:53:11.959
<v Speaker 1>from Bloomberg Radio. As we wrap up this week, Jason,

0:53:12.040 --> 0:53:13.640
<v Speaker 1>we know one of the things we've talked about all

0:53:13.680 --> 0:53:15.759
<v Speaker 1>lots until we've all been working from home so much

0:53:16.000 --> 0:53:20.640
<v Speaker 1>is about staying mentally and physically fit. Absolutely no better

0:53:20.680 --> 0:53:22.880
<v Speaker 1>person to talk about that than the founder and executive

0:53:22.960 --> 0:53:26.600
<v Speaker 1>chairman of Mind Body. They are the guts of the

0:53:26.760 --> 0:53:29.279
<v Speaker 1>entire fitness business. Talking about Rick Stallmeyer. Check it out.

0:53:29.320 --> 0:53:32.200
<v Speaker 1>What we're seeing right now is they supply constrained market.

0:53:32.760 --> 0:53:36.520
<v Speaker 1>People want their fitness classes, they want their wellness services

0:53:36.560 --> 0:53:40.000
<v Speaker 1>and experiences more than ever. And you know, one of

0:53:40.080 --> 0:53:43.120
<v Speaker 1>the well I guess one of the unintended consequences of

0:53:43.200 --> 0:53:48.239
<v Speaker 1>this mishmash of state and regional reactions or responses to

0:53:48.360 --> 0:53:51.600
<v Speaker 1>COVID is that what we've seen around the country, as

0:53:51.680 --> 0:53:55.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, some states never really closed down completely. Other

0:53:55.680 --> 0:53:59.240
<v Speaker 1>states reopened very quickly. Um, we all know those stories.

0:53:59.600 --> 0:54:01.799
<v Speaker 1>You know, you're in the Tristate area, which has been

0:54:01.880 --> 0:54:06.279
<v Speaker 1>probably the model of how how discipline the approach has been. Um,

0:54:06.520 --> 0:54:08.399
<v Speaker 1>what we've seen in every one of those cases when

0:54:08.440 --> 0:54:11.960
<v Speaker 1>the businesses are open or when they reopen, Uh, they

0:54:12.000 --> 0:54:17.040
<v Speaker 1>get flooded with consumer interest because people's wellness has been

0:54:17.080 --> 0:54:22.880
<v Speaker 1>severely impacted by this pandemic. Yeah, I do think it's interesting.

0:54:23.000 --> 0:54:25.040
<v Speaker 1>So you talk about people flooding back, and I do

0:54:25.200 --> 0:54:29.360
<v Speaker 1>think about what about new folks who may be thought, Okay,

0:54:29.480 --> 0:54:32.320
<v Speaker 1>it's not that important. I've got work to do or

0:54:32.360 --> 0:54:35.399
<v Speaker 1>I've got you know, X to do, And now they're saying,

0:54:35.440 --> 0:54:37.760
<v Speaker 1>wait a minute, this has got to be fitness. Wellness

0:54:37.920 --> 0:54:41.799
<v Speaker 1>have to be a part of my regular living. Well,

0:54:41.840 --> 0:54:43.520
<v Speaker 1>that's right. I mean we all know, of course, you know,

0:54:43.680 --> 0:54:48.880
<v Speaker 1>the pre existing conditions around obesity, hypertension, heart disease, cardiovascual disease,

0:54:49.280 --> 0:54:52.080
<v Speaker 1>type two diabetes. Those things, of course have been shown

0:54:52.160 --> 0:54:55.160
<v Speaker 1>to be major risk factors for COVID. And I think

0:54:55.200 --> 0:54:57.520
<v Speaker 1>people a lot of people have gotten that memo. I

0:54:57.560 --> 0:54:59.399
<v Speaker 1>mean people that I talked to, people that I see

0:55:00.120 --> 0:55:02.640
<v Speaker 1>at the same time being restricted to our homes for

0:55:03.160 --> 0:55:05.719
<v Speaker 1>such an extended period of time. You know, for many

0:55:05.800 --> 0:55:08.480
<v Speaker 1>people that they put on weight, for many people their

0:55:08.600 --> 0:55:12.120
<v Speaker 1>their their fitness has struggled. Um. And then lastly, you know,

0:55:12.200 --> 0:55:15.400
<v Speaker 1>wellness isn't just physical, is it right, It's also emotional wealthy,

0:55:15.840 --> 0:55:19.000
<v Speaker 1>it's a sense of social connection, it's community, and I

0:55:19.080 --> 0:55:21.120
<v Speaker 1>think we're all suffering in this country, in fact in

0:55:21.200 --> 0:55:24.400
<v Speaker 1>most of the world, from the impact of having all

0:55:24.480 --> 0:55:28.680
<v Speaker 1>of that so severely disrupted. And it's why we remain

0:55:28.880 --> 0:55:31.359
<v Speaker 1>very bullish about the industry we serve for the long term.

0:55:31.640 --> 0:55:33.600
<v Speaker 1>But of course this is a really challenging time on

0:55:33.920 --> 0:55:36.960
<v Speaker 1>both the consumer side and the business owners. What we

0:55:37.080 --> 0:55:40.239
<v Speaker 1>have we have been doing what we can to advocate UM,

0:55:40.520 --> 0:55:44.440
<v Speaker 1>both in UH in Washington as well as at the

0:55:44.520 --> 0:55:47.480
<v Speaker 1>state capitals. I planned personal to do a lot more

0:55:47.520 --> 0:55:49.400
<v Speaker 1>of that, you know, as you alluded to at the

0:55:49.440 --> 0:55:53.000
<v Speaker 1>beginning here. UM, I've just transitioned from being CEO, I mean,

0:55:53.040 --> 0:55:55.680
<v Speaker 1>a role that I've had for twenty years, handled the

0:55:55.719 --> 0:55:59.280
<v Speaker 1>baton to Josh McCarter. He's our new CEO, and Senel

0:55:59.400 --> 0:56:01.759
<v Speaker 1>Roger Say, who was our CTO, has been elevated to

0:56:01.880 --> 0:56:04.600
<v Speaker 1>president and CTO. I mean, this is a dream team.

0:56:04.920 --> 0:56:08.160
<v Speaker 1>These guys in the executive team around them by far

0:56:08.239 --> 0:56:10.200
<v Speaker 1>the strongest we've ever had. So I can feel very

0:56:10.280 --> 0:56:15.400
<v Speaker 1>confident in and the company's continue growth and innovation. And

0:56:15.520 --> 0:56:17.399
<v Speaker 1>what I want to spend more of my time doing

0:56:17.520 --> 0:56:21.680
<v Speaker 1>is that outwardly facing role. Um, these these businesses are

0:56:21.680 --> 0:56:24.680
<v Speaker 1>almost all small business owners, even if you owned an

0:56:24.719 --> 0:56:27.840
<v Speaker 1>Orange their Fitness or an S forty five franchise. For example,

0:56:28.440 --> 0:56:34.440
<v Speaker 1>the classic FRANCHISEZ is a typically like two spouses who

0:56:34.960 --> 0:56:37.320
<v Speaker 1>invested in this business and are running at hands on

0:56:37.600 --> 0:56:40.040
<v Speaker 1>every day. And of course so many these businesses are

0:56:40.080 --> 0:56:43.719
<v Speaker 1>just independent Mama Papa shops, and no one has been

0:56:43.800 --> 0:56:47.720
<v Speaker 1>advocating on their behalf, even looking at how the states

0:56:48.000 --> 0:56:52.080
<v Speaker 1>generally have have issued edicts around whether they could open

0:56:52.120 --> 0:56:54.120
<v Speaker 1>and close as sort of a broad brush. You know,

0:56:54.320 --> 0:56:57.080
<v Speaker 1>no gyms can open, so it doesn't matter if it's

0:56:57.160 --> 0:57:01.080
<v Speaker 1>a eighty thou square foot health club with hundreds of

0:57:01.160 --> 0:57:05.000
<v Speaker 1>people streaming through the door, or small little yoga pilates

0:57:05.280 --> 0:57:07.960
<v Speaker 1>or a group exercise studio, and it maybe in normal

0:57:08.040 --> 0:57:10.680
<v Speaker 1>times might have had twenty people in class and now

0:57:10.760 --> 0:57:13.600
<v Speaker 1>with social distancing, they have maybe eight people. I mean,

0:57:13.680 --> 0:57:17.640
<v Speaker 1>these it's not high risk. They we have seen firsthand.

0:57:18.160 --> 0:57:21.000
<v Speaker 1>If you take the proper precautions, the social distancing, the

0:57:21.080 --> 0:57:23.479
<v Speaker 1>mask wearing, you can go in and have a great

0:57:23.520 --> 0:57:26.960
<v Speaker 1>experience very safely. And I'm not sure I don't think

0:57:27.040 --> 0:57:30.720
<v Speaker 1>many people are telling that story to our government leaders

0:57:30.720 --> 0:57:33.600
<v Speaker 1>who are making new decisions. So, Rick, you and I

0:57:33.760 --> 0:57:36.320
<v Speaker 1>caught up a little earlier in the pandemic for the

0:57:36.360 --> 0:57:39.080
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business of Sports podcast, and you know, one of

0:57:39.080 --> 0:57:41.960
<v Speaker 1>the things we're talking about is, and this goes back

0:57:42.000 --> 0:57:44.040
<v Speaker 1>to where we left off in our conversation, these are

0:57:44.080 --> 0:57:48.080
<v Speaker 1>small businesses. Many of these boutique studios, especially mom and

0:57:48.160 --> 0:57:52.440
<v Speaker 1>pop type shops. Uh, a lot of them are just

0:57:52.480 --> 0:57:54.560
<v Speaker 1>going to go out of business. I think you would

0:57:54.600 --> 0:57:57.720
<v Speaker 1>even predicted maybe a quarter of them, uh would just

0:57:57.880 --> 0:58:01.160
<v Speaker 1>ultimately have to hang it up, pulled up shop. What

0:58:01.280 --> 0:58:05.000
<v Speaker 1>do you what do you make of that prediction? Now, well,

0:58:05.080 --> 0:58:08.120
<v Speaker 1>it hasn't happened yet. Um, these businesses have proven far

0:58:08.240 --> 0:58:11.080
<v Speaker 1>more resilience than we've hope. And of course we've been

0:58:11.160 --> 0:58:14.760
<v Speaker 1>rooting farm from the very beginning of the of the pandemic.

0:58:15.520 --> 0:58:19.640
<v Speaker 1>And you know, immediately when the as the lockdown started

0:58:19.680 --> 0:58:22.640
<v Speaker 1>in the late March, they started adapting. And of course

0:58:23.040 --> 0:58:26.160
<v Speaker 1>the most obvious thing was delivering their classes and experiences

0:58:26.240 --> 0:58:29.080
<v Speaker 1>be a video and so live streaming video and then

0:58:29.120 --> 0:58:32.080
<v Speaker 1>putting up libraries a video on demand. They started doing

0:58:32.120 --> 0:58:36.120
<v Speaker 1>that spontaneously, and my body has been innovating rapidly. We

0:58:36.280 --> 0:58:38.520
<v Speaker 1>now have virtual wellness platform enables them to do that

0:58:38.600 --> 0:58:40.960
<v Speaker 1>in a way that they can sustainable businesses. And you

0:58:41.000 --> 0:58:43.760
<v Speaker 1>and I talked about that, Jason. Now what you see,

0:58:43.800 --> 0:58:46.200
<v Speaker 1>of course, is a lot more of these activities going

0:58:46.200 --> 0:58:50.040
<v Speaker 1>on outside UM. And the science indicates it. Being outside

0:58:50.160 --> 0:58:51.919
<v Speaker 1>is just simply safer than being in a room which

0:58:51.920 --> 0:58:56.320
<v Speaker 1>we sustulating air. And lastly, of course it's just immaculate cleanliness.

0:58:56.920 --> 0:59:01.840
<v Speaker 1>A lot more distance between workout station UM and everybody

0:59:01.920 --> 0:59:06.240
<v Speaker 1>wearing maths. And you know, we've what we have seen UM,

0:59:07.000 --> 0:59:09.960
<v Speaker 1>I think is a remarkable adaptation of an industry that

0:59:10.120 --> 0:59:13.400
<v Speaker 1>being said, you know, this kind of brutal two steps forward,

0:59:13.440 --> 0:59:16.440
<v Speaker 1>one step back, one step forward, two steps back. Uh.

0:59:16.720 --> 0:59:19.680
<v Speaker 1>You know at some point you're gonna start taking a pole. Uh.

0:59:19.840 --> 0:59:22.960
<v Speaker 1>And UM, you know we were rooting for all of

0:59:23.280 --> 0:59:26.000
<v Speaker 1>these businesses, UM. But I think we're still are probably

0:59:26.040 --> 0:59:29.920
<v Speaker 1>going to expect some some notable amounts of business failures

0:59:30.320 --> 0:59:32.760
<v Speaker 1>in the months ahead, given what it just appears that

0:59:32.840 --> 0:59:35.360
<v Speaker 1>dependemic and how it's going to develop. And then we're

0:59:35.360 --> 0:59:38.960
<v Speaker 1>not going to get out of this very challenging situation

0:59:39.120 --> 0:59:41.920
<v Speaker 1>right for at least a few quarters probably. Yeah. It

0:59:41.960 --> 0:59:44.200
<v Speaker 1>kind of breaks my heart about those who have as

0:59:44.200 --> 0:59:46.200
<v Speaker 1>you said to him, it's it's a couple who started

0:59:46.240 --> 0:59:49.440
<v Speaker 1>a business and they're just not going to make it through. UM.

0:59:50.040 --> 0:59:53.280
<v Speaker 1>You talk about live streaming, there's in studio, there's outdoor classes,

0:59:53.360 --> 0:59:56.000
<v Speaker 1>depending on you know, kind of where you live. You know, Rick,

0:59:56.040 --> 0:59:58.160
<v Speaker 1>what we love about talking with you is, you know,

0:59:58.280 --> 1:00:00.360
<v Speaker 1>you guys do have the platform where you you get

1:00:00.400 --> 1:00:03.880
<v Speaker 1>inside into so many different businesses. What other data points

1:00:04.480 --> 1:00:08.040
<v Speaker 1>are you able to kind of see that are revealing

1:00:08.120 --> 1:00:10.840
<v Speaker 1>about what's going on right now and what might continue

1:00:11.040 --> 1:00:13.240
<v Speaker 1>for for sometimes kind of stay with us as we

1:00:13.360 --> 1:00:16.440
<v Speaker 1>all kind of pivot and and kind of embrace some

1:00:16.520 --> 1:00:19.320
<v Speaker 1>of these change ways of doing things, including working out

1:00:19.440 --> 1:00:23.200
<v Speaker 1>and staying well well. First of all, we're seeing you know,

1:00:23.400 --> 1:00:27.000
<v Speaker 1>rising consumer demand for these activities of all types, of

1:00:27.080 --> 1:00:30.560
<v Speaker 1>all categories, and of course fitnesses leading part of that. UM,

1:00:31.000 --> 1:00:33.440
<v Speaker 1>we see high sensitivity in the consumer side. We've been

1:00:33.480 --> 1:00:36.400
<v Speaker 1>serving you know, millions of consumers on our platform, uh,

1:00:36.480 --> 1:00:39.040
<v Speaker 1>and we've been serving people in a scientific way, and

1:00:39.120 --> 1:00:43.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, more than consumers indicate that yes, rigorous santizis

1:00:43.560 --> 1:00:48.000
<v Speaker 1>santization is important. About three fourths of them say the

1:00:48.080 --> 1:00:50.880
<v Speaker 1>new layouts are really important and they like what they're seeing.

1:00:50.920 --> 1:00:53.120
<v Speaker 1>If you haven't visited one of these studios in a

1:00:53.200 --> 1:00:56.120
<v Speaker 1>long time or since the pandemic started, I encourage you

1:00:56.160 --> 1:00:59.000
<v Speaker 1>to go look at him and understand it. UM. We

1:00:59.080 --> 1:01:01.160
<v Speaker 1>can now leverage tech knowledgy in ways that really just

1:01:01.320 --> 1:01:04.640
<v Speaker 1>minimize the kind of contact for example, contact with check

1:01:04.720 --> 1:01:08.440
<v Speaker 1>in and contact with payments. UM. That's extremely important to

1:01:08.520 --> 1:01:13.240
<v Speaker 1>consumers today and I think that it is going to

1:01:13.320 --> 1:01:16.520
<v Speaker 1>be challenging for these businesses. But but the ones that

1:01:16.720 --> 1:01:18.880
<v Speaker 1>do get through this to do that, whether there's are

1:01:18.880 --> 1:01:23.280
<v Speaker 1>going to face a really remarkable market. UM. And for

1:01:23.400 --> 1:01:26.280
<v Speaker 1>some of the most forward leaning businesses, what they're doing

1:01:26.400 --> 1:01:30.120
<v Speaker 1>is as they see UH. In downtown retail areas, of course,

1:01:30.520 --> 1:01:33.280
<v Speaker 1>businesses of all types have been failing. That's opening up

1:01:33.320 --> 1:01:37.720
<v Speaker 1>space and you see the more well capitalized brands swooping

1:01:37.760 --> 1:01:40.840
<v Speaker 1>in because it was really a shortage of prime retail

1:01:40.880 --> 1:01:43.600
<v Speaker 1>space that was holding back the industry before COVID hit.

1:01:44.440 --> 1:01:47.680
<v Speaker 1>And so I think you're gonna see a real changeover. UM. Lastly,

1:01:47.800 --> 1:01:49.960
<v Speaker 1>the ability if I'm going to commit to a membership

1:01:50.520 --> 1:01:53.560
<v Speaker 1>or a prepaid package at this particular studio, well, I

1:01:53.640 --> 1:01:56.080
<v Speaker 1>want to know that regardless of what happens whatever the

1:01:56.160 --> 1:01:59.920
<v Speaker 1>state of of social distancing restrictions or lockdowns in my region.

1:02:00.240 --> 1:02:02.200
<v Speaker 1>So I'm gonna be able to keep engaging. So just

1:02:02.280 --> 1:02:05.560
<v Speaker 1>being able to have hybrid memberships is very important to

1:02:05.640 --> 1:02:09.080
<v Speaker 1>people today, and we see that happening already in the

1:02:09.120 --> 1:02:11.440
<v Speaker 1>businesses that we're serving. If I can just follow them,

1:02:11.480 --> 1:02:13.520
<v Speaker 1>I also do wonder by having such a platform as

1:02:13.560 --> 1:02:18.120
<v Speaker 1>your own, it kind of creates a tracing platform that

1:02:18.520 --> 1:02:21.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, if a case breaks out at a certain

1:02:21.680 --> 1:02:24.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, studio or workout or gym in a place

1:02:25.520 --> 1:02:28.520
<v Speaker 1>that immediately you can say, okay, these were the people

1:02:28.560 --> 1:02:30.760
<v Speaker 1>that were there, and we can kind of be right

1:02:30.840 --> 1:02:34.600
<v Speaker 1>on top of it from the get go. We haven't

1:02:34.600 --> 1:02:36.360
<v Speaker 1>been asked to the bulge that data. I mean, we

1:02:36.440 --> 1:02:40.840
<v Speaker 1>treat in a confidentiality both businesses confidential data and consumers

1:02:40.880 --> 1:02:45.800
<v Speaker 1>confidential data very seriously. So um, it's not something that

1:02:46.000 --> 1:02:49.640
<v Speaker 1>that that we would just um easily offer up. But

1:02:49.800 --> 1:02:52.760
<v Speaker 1>if there were some kind of organized process, uh, you

1:02:52.800 --> 1:02:55.480
<v Speaker 1>know that we could assist, and of course we'd have

1:02:55.600 --> 1:03:00.160
<v Speaker 1>to get people's permission I think to allow us to

1:03:00.520 --> 1:03:03.400
<v Speaker 1>share what you're talking about. That's my Body founder and

1:03:03.480 --> 1:03:06.200
<v Speaker 1>executive chairman, Rick Stollmeyer, and it was interesting because we

1:03:06.320 --> 1:03:08.800
<v Speaker 1>do know his platform, right Jason, They have access to

1:03:08.800 --> 1:03:11.080
<v Speaker 1>a lot of data, and I do wonder you know

1:03:11.280 --> 1:03:14.040
<v Speaker 1>how people might use that, specially in a COVID nineteen

1:03:14.120 --> 1:03:16.600
<v Speaker 1>era to make sure that they can open up their businesses,

1:03:16.640 --> 1:03:20.439
<v Speaker 1>but also keep everybody who goes to gyms and work

1:03:20.520 --> 1:03:23.800
<v Speaker 1>out facilities make sure we keep them safe. Yeah, certainly

1:03:23.880 --> 1:03:27.640
<v Speaker 1>watch this space. It's fast moving and really important, maybe

1:03:27.720 --> 1:03:30.280
<v Speaker 1>more important than ever as we think about how to

1:03:30.360 --> 1:03:32.880
<v Speaker 1>stay healthy going into the fall. Well, that's going to

1:03:32.960 --> 1:03:35.120
<v Speaker 1>wrap up the weekend addition to Bloomberg Business Week from

1:03:35.120 --> 1:03:37.320
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. Thank you so much for joining us. I'm

1:03:37.400 --> 1:03:40.240
<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly and I'm Carol Massa. Wrapping up week twenty

1:03:40.280 --> 1:03:42.760
<v Speaker 1>two from most of us still working from home. Be

1:03:42.840 --> 1:03:45.600
<v Speaker 1>sure to check out our daily show Monday through Friday,

1:03:45.640 --> 1:03:48.080
<v Speaker 1>starting at two pm Wall Street Time on Bloomberg Radio.

1:03:48.120 --> 1:03:50.840
<v Speaker 1>That's where all these interviews come from, and check it out.

1:03:50.920 --> 1:03:52.560
<v Speaker 1>If you miss it, if you're not tuning in live,

1:03:52.600 --> 1:03:55.880
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1:03:56.000 --> 1:03:59.000
<v Speaker 1>you get your podcasts. You can also watch us on YouTube.

1:03:59.080 --> 1:04:01.320
<v Speaker 1>Just go to YouTube and arch Bloomberg Global News and

1:04:01.360 --> 1:04:05.000
<v Speaker 1>don't forget check out Bloomberg Business Week magazine, so many stories,

1:04:05.040 --> 1:04:07.800
<v Speaker 1>including our special double issue. It's called the Vaccine Issue.

1:04:08.080 --> 1:04:11.280
<v Speaker 1>It's on newsstands now, it's on the Bloomberg terminal, of course,

1:04:11.600 --> 1:04:14.400
<v Speaker 1>always at Bloomberg dot com. We'll see you right back

1:04:14.440 --> 1:04:17.520
<v Speaker 1>here next week at the same time. This is Bloomberg