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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance says not much that Rudy unites

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Speaker 1: the bricks a pomp from their size. That the huge

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Speaker 1: not just in terms of that gene pep, in terms

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Speaker 1: of the population. We're still underweight. We're not convinced that

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Speaker 1: the risker war trade off is all that attractive. And

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Speaker 1: a m that's for the fact is run below. He's

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Speaker 1: super saint target for very very many years. It shouldn't

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Speaker 1: worry about over shooting a little bit. Bloomberg Surveillance. You're

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Speaker 1: linked to the world of economics, finance and investment. On

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Good morning everyone, Michael McKee and Tom Keene

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveilless. Mr kow Berry, Ridholt Yeoman's duty this week,

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Speaker 1: five days in a row. Five I say, we got

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Speaker 1: ripples up in a godly hour. Usually you know he's like,

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Speaker 1: I'm up this hour anyway, eight thirty coffee. You check

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Speaker 1: the BlackBerry. You see my reads at seven am. I'm

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Speaker 1: up this hour. It's uh, I don't know where the

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Speaker 1: week ones hours fly by so quickly. That's what we

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Speaker 1: try to do. It's got nothing to do with me,

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Speaker 1: it's got to do with why you yen and are

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Speaker 1: great team and all of them. I look at foreign

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Speaker 1: exchange on the move Karen Moscow talking euro Sterling. The

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Speaker 1: forex brief brought to by Interactive Brokers, winner of X

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Speaker 1: Weeks two thousand and fifteen award for the Best Retail

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Speaker 1: for X training platform visit ib and I b k

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Speaker 1: R dot Com slash four X. I could go on

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Speaker 1: for four X for an hour, NonStop. That's how interesting

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Speaker 1: it is. And all you need to know is, as

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Speaker 1: a general statement, week dollars stronger other currencies. Yeah, one eleven,

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Speaker 1: that's a one eleven prints stronger Yen over the last

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Speaker 1: three days, a euro solid one fourteen one, fourteen oh six.

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Speaker 1: And as Karen mentioned, something we don't talk that much

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Speaker 1: about in New York, but Francie Laqui lives in London.

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Speaker 1: Euro Sterling stronger euro weaker sterling, and it's a big

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Speaker 1: round number. It's like a down ten thousand number point

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Speaker 1: eight zero. It was printed moments ago against stronger euro.

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Speaker 1: Massive shout out to Stevens Say well Being and p

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Speaker 1: Perry Boud the Deutsche Bank people for their outlier vision

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Speaker 1: on a stronger year. Olds. That's enough on foreign exchange,

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Speaker 1: uh right now, um, the punch bowl is full to

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Speaker 1: the brim, not to the record brim yet, but we're

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Speaker 1: right up there here to provide oxygen and some alka seltzer.

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Speaker 1: David Wilson, Is that anything go down this week? Well? Sure,

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Speaker 1: I mean plenty of things went down this week. In fact,

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Speaker 1: the auto stocks are going down today well. US automakers

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Speaker 1: set to release their March sales figures awards. Automotive looking

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Speaker 1: for an annual rate of seventeen and a half million units,

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Speaker 1: pretty much in line with what we had in February.

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Speaker 1: General Motors, Ford Motive, Freak, Chrysler all down, Chrysler notable

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Speaker 1: with a two and a half percent to quine. In

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Speaker 1: early trading, Tasla Motors though the most active stock game

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Speaker 1: they dos trading. They're up about seven the line I

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Speaker 1: was not how about you, No, no, I'm not going

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Speaker 1: near I got hey. Though there are a hundred and

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Speaker 1: thirty four thousand reservations yesterday for Tesla's new Model three.

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Speaker 1: Would be buyers of the electric car put down thousand

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Speaker 1: dollar deposits. The Model three costs about thirty five thousand dollars.

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Speaker 1: That's less than half the price of Tesla's biggest seller

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Speaker 1: final free financing. Think about how much money they just

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Speaker 1: gave Tesla. What you learned this week about in buying

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Speaker 1: I mean the star with the whole star Ward ballet.

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Speaker 1: I mean you've been doing this for decades, Dave. Have

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Speaker 1: you ever seen it not so quickly in terms of

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Speaker 1: a company moving in to make a bid and then

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Speaker 1: moving out sort of on a dime. That's really how

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Speaker 1: things turned out. And Starward Hotels and Resorts shares are

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Speaker 1: down about four and a half percent after that group,

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Speaker 1: led by China's Unbang Insurance withdrew a fourteen billion dollar

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Speaker 1: takeover offer for the hotel change Now end Banks moved

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Speaker 1: cleared the way for Starwood to be brought by Marriott

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Speaker 1: International for thirteen point two billion dollars in cash and stock,

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Speaker 1: and Marriott shares are down five and a half percent.

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Speaker 1: So be careful what you wish for, you might get it.

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Speaker 1: I guess it's a story there. Re General and Pharmaceuticals

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Speaker 1: up three and a half percent. The drug makers has

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Speaker 1: proposed treatment for a severe form of eczema met the

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Speaker 1: goal of two final stage trials. Re General is developing

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Speaker 1: the drug with Francis Santa Fee. Uh, you've got airline

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Speaker 1: stocks down American Delta, United Continental, and Hawaiian Holdings all

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Speaker 1: off two percent to two and a half percent. The

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Speaker 1: four carriers were reduced to hold from by at Deutsche Bank.

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Speaker 1: Marvel Technology down four percent to chip maker delayed filing

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Speaker 1: its fiscal report with US regulators because the county is used.

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Speaker 1: Marvel did say it expects the results to show a

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Speaker 1: net loss and significantly lower revenue for the year. David Wilson,

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Speaker 1: thank you for the particularly in Star. Somehow, I think

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Speaker 1: there'll be some wrap ups on all of that. It

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Speaker 1: is the most interesting American economy. He has done important

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Speaker 1: research on our nation's mobility. John Sylvia holds fort at

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Speaker 1: Fortress Stump Wells Fargo with a whole different global and

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Speaker 1: American outlook. And we're thrilled to go from Jim Glassman

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Speaker 1: to Bill gross to John. So if you John, good morning.

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Speaker 1: Within the better American economy five percent unemployment, do you

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Speaker 1: see with job levers better? Are we moving around again

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Speaker 1: like we used to? Oh? No, not at all. We

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Speaker 1: are moving around. There is some improvement and labor market mobility.

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Speaker 1: But when we look at some of the longer term indicates,

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Speaker 1: for example, employed part time for economic reasons that remains

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Speaker 1: fairly high, and the labor force participation right continues to

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Speaker 1: improve um and we are getting some of the marginal

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Speaker 1: work is coming back in, so that's good to see.

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Speaker 1: But now we're not at all the eighties and nine

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Speaker 1: nineties labor market. So let's talk a little bit about wages. John.

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Speaker 1: We we've seen them tick up point three in this report,

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Speaker 1: but by any historical measure, the they've been lagging what

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Speaker 1: we like to see more robust wage growth. Are we

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Speaker 1: on the verge as our mutual fishing buddy David Rosenberg

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Speaker 1: has suggested a big improvement in wages and salaries. Oh,

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Speaker 1: I think we are seeing an improvement in wages and salaries.

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Speaker 1: But I look back at the gain and wages at

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Speaker 1: this stage of the cycle and the prior three economic recoveries,

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Speaker 1: and in each case we're talking about four percent kind

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Speaker 1: of gains, and now we're talking about two and a

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Speaker 1: quarter two point three percent gains. So I think you're

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Speaker 1: quite right. Very improvement, yes, but certainly not to the

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Speaker 1: pace we've seen in the prior recoveries. I think globalization

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Speaker 1: has made a huge difference. I think the change in

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Speaker 1: the type of workers has made a big we we

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Speaker 1: just don't have manufacturing workers of back office clerical workers

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Speaker 1: like we had in years ago. Okay, Dr Sylvia, you're

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Speaker 1: gonna answer the question that I I rose to the

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Speaker 1: defense of corporate America. I was at the wonderful David

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Speaker 1: Sower Quinnipiac game for him yesterday, which is fourteen under

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Speaker 1: really really wicked smart college kids from all around the

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Speaker 1: world in the US, Canada and such and and John Sylvia.

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Speaker 1: When people tell me there's no investment by corporations, I

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Speaker 1: go nuts. I mean, the answer is there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of capex going on. I see it on the Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: Where are we in capex investment? Is it great? Is

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Speaker 1: it good? Is it so so? Or there's a gloomsters

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Speaker 1: say is it terrible? Well, you know, I'll get back

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Speaker 1: to something new. And Barry touched upon earlier this morning.

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Speaker 1: You've got to think about the fact that with interest

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Speaker 1: rates as low as this is, the cost of capital

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Speaker 1: to finance investment is actually quite low. And so what

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Speaker 1: you've seen, in an odd sort of way in the

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Speaker 1: capital labor market, substitute should or a capital financed at

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Speaker 1: very low interest rates is substituting for labor and I

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Speaker 1: think that's a sort of an unintended consequence of the

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Speaker 1: continued low interest rates, saying and Domini consummate Deutsche Banker

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Speaker 1: was just fabulous thinking along this line. Is Well, then, John,

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Speaker 1: if that's the case, as you say, a globalization, which

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Speaker 1: I'm thunderstruck, hasn't come up in the presidential campaign. Do

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Speaker 1: we need a regime of fair trade? Is Secretary Clinton

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Speaker 1: talked about years ago? Well, I think clearly for the

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Speaker 1: American populist uh, the free trade is really not viewed

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Speaker 1: as fair trade. And uh when you're competing again with uh,

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Speaker 1: enterprises of other countries where the enterprise is truly not

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Speaker 1: a private enterprise but in fact is a government sponsor,

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Speaker 1: it's supported whatever you wanna call an enterprise. Um. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: there are significant issues. And I think that what maybe

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Speaker 1: Valuable will comment on, because I've say this before, is that,

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Speaker 1: you know, we we have to stop with the ideological

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Speaker 1: free trade stuff. It's not dealing with the realities of

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Speaker 1: the trade in the Let's come back with John Sylvia

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Speaker 1: Wells Fargo. Mr Ridholts with a comment. Dr Sylvia demands

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Speaker 1: a rid Holtzi in comment, you know it's important to

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Speaker 1: recognize that globalization is here. It's not going away. You

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Speaker 1: can't erect trade barriers. NAFTA has helped create jobs even

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Speaker 1: for US auto workers. T p P is probably going

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Speaker 1: to be a huge boon for the United States. What

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Speaker 1: we need is retraining for the workers. There are not

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Speaker 1: gonna be anymore socks and underwear mills in North Carolina.

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Speaker 1: Those jobs are gone and gone forever. We need to

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Speaker 1: retrain those workers so they could be part of the

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Speaker 1: twenty cent Verry Ridholts where this was where is the

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Speaker 1: missing Michael McKee? And it's great. Maybe McKee, you and

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Speaker 1: me love to do a special twelve hours surveillance or

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Speaker 1: you could keep them on vacation another week. Don't know.

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Speaker 1: Did you get everybody together and do this? With John

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Speaker 1: Sylvia falls Fargo Economic Policy Institute, I mentioned them earlier.

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Speaker 1: They just put out a spectacular chart which I put

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Speaker 1: back out on Twitter, which is the unemployment rate we

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Speaker 1: all know four point nine percent up to five percent,

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Speaker 1: and then they calculate missing workers looking for work and

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Speaker 1: that takes five point zero percent up to six point

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Speaker 1: three percent, which is nowhere near where you wanted to be.

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Speaker 1: So e P I putting out that important chart signaling

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Speaker 1: to some differences across all of America. We're throwing to

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Speaker 1: bring you John Sylvia will do oil later with oil

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Speaker 1: moving down thirty six West Texas. Donna Salert dollar forty

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Speaker 1: a barrel. And now to the news in New York

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Speaker 1: is Michael barr Ton Barry, thank you very much. The

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Speaker 1: latest survey by Marquette University Doll School shows Republican presidential

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Speaker 1: a Ted Cruz topping front runner Donald Trump by ten

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Speaker 1: points in Wisconsin. Big loss for Trump in the States

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Speaker 1: primary next week would greatly reduce his chances of securing

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Speaker 1: the delegates he needs to clinch the Republican nomination. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: Democrat Hillary Clinton is focusing on New York today ahead

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Speaker 1: of the States April nineteenth primary. She's releasing a plan

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Speaker 1: to revitalize manufacturing in Syracuse. Clinton was in New York

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Speaker 1: as a senator by arrival. Bernie Sanders grew up in Brooklyn.

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Speaker 1: Investigators are puzzled over a motive for the shooting death

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Speaker 1: of a Virginia State trooper on a training mission at

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Speaker 1: the Richmond Bus Station. The shooting began after a brief

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Speaker 1: encounter between the trooper and the gunman. The gunman was

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Speaker 1: shot dead by other officers. Global News twenty four hours

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Speaker 1: a day, powered by our twenty four hundred journalists and

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Speaker 1: more than a hundred fifty news bureaus from around the world.

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Speaker 1: I'm Mike Labar, Tom Barry, Michael, thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: Shoulder with us on this job's day, and economics, finance,

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Speaker 1: investment on the international relations as well. Again we'll look

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Speaker 1: at oil here in our next power John Sylvia with

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Speaker 1: us from Wells Fargo and Surveillance being brought to you

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Speaker 1: plus mobil and on your radio is a Bloomberg Business Flash.

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Speaker 1: And I'm Karen Moscow. The Bloomberg Futures Report, rosy Vay,

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Speaker 1: c m E Group and U Stock Index futures are falling,

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Speaker 1: tracking declines in crude oil amid data showing job gains

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Speaker 1: and higher wages as supported the case for raising interest rates.

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Speaker 1: West Texas Intermediate Oil erased its twenty sixteen games as

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Speaker 1: Saudi's Arabia says a frieze depends on Iran, and we'll

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Speaker 1: have more in that story in just a moment. Futures

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Speaker 1: this morning again are moving lower SNPE. Many futures are

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Speaker 1: down thirteen and a half points downing, many futures down

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Speaker 1: a hundred seven NASA EVE any futures down thirty. The

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Speaker 1: ten year treasuries have one thirty second the yield one

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Speaker 1: point seven six percent. Im Ex Secret Oil down three

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Speaker 1: percent or a dollar forty seven to thirty six eighties

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Speaker 1: six of barrel and co mix schal down one point

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Speaker 1: four percent or seventeen dollars ten cents to twelve eighteen

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Speaker 1: seventy announced. That's a bloomberg business flash, Tom and Barry, Karen,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much again. And deteration in futures. Those great

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Speaker 1: data checks from Karen Moscow Oil Front Center will do

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Speaker 1: that in a bit. From forty dollars down to thirty

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Speaker 1: six eighty one on West Texas Intermedia. I'll be honest,

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Speaker 1: I haven't done the technical work without businity. We've been

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Speaker 1: but the idea here a goal of oil rather really

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Speaker 1: getting the support, and that's what dollar dynamics as well.

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Speaker 1: There's there's there's issues at Bloomberg Surveillance that you don't

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Speaker 1: see the sausage making his brutal. My people talk to

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Speaker 1: Barry ridholts Is people. Riddholts had a tantrum that we

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Speaker 1: had to talk to John Sylvia about the Economic Policy

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Speaker 1: Institute's study. So we're ripping up the script here because

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Speaker 1: ridholds Is people had a Friday attitude John Sylvia, does

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Speaker 1: retraining work if we've got permanently unemployed? Are you kidding me?

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Speaker 1: Retraining and spending that government money doesn't actually work? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think the evidence suggests that for some people it

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Speaker 1: does work. I mean, the reality is it's the old

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Speaker 1: question of leading a horse to water. For those people

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Speaker 1: that have some incentive and desire, you have to give

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Speaker 1: them the opportunity and to do the retraining. And and

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Speaker 1: if some people drop off, they drop off. But you're

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Speaker 1: not gonna save everybody. You're not gonna save everybody's career.

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Speaker 1: And I couldn't agree with a Barry moy This has

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Speaker 1: been a I seem like we're going around in circle sometimes.

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Speaker 1: We had this discussion up in Maine for like five

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Speaker 1: six years now. Um, yes, I would support retraining the

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Speaker 1: government spending on retraining programs that I really aimed at

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Speaker 1: getting people jobs knowing that a significant percentage of them

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Speaker 1: will drop out never complete. I got that. But you

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Speaker 1: know you can't say everybody, by the way, main is

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Speaker 1: the fishing trip. Rosenberg and Kotok and McCulley and myself

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Speaker 1: go on that that you're not invited to. Tom, Maybe

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Speaker 1: we'll get you up there one day and put a

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Speaker 1: rod in your hand and see what you can do. John,

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Speaker 1: Let's talk a little bit about the chart that Tom

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Speaker 1: referenced earlier, which is this unemployment rate that seems to

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Speaker 1: be understanding weakness in the in the job rate. You know,

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Speaker 1: those missing workers who are looking looking for employment and

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Speaker 1: not finding it and are not counted as part of

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Speaker 1: the unemployment rate. If we work them back into the

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Speaker 1: full use six numbers, that's an unemployment rate that was

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Speaker 1: twelve percent after the crisis, but has been cut in

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Speaker 1: half to six point three all things considered, This was terrible,

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Speaker 1: it's considerably better, and it's still trending in the right direction.

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Speaker 1: Are these people finding jobs? Is that? Is this really

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Speaker 1: as bad as some people painted? Well, well, there is

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Speaker 1: some evidence Barry that when you look at labor force

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Speaker 1: participation rates by age cohort over the last six months,

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Speaker 1: you have seen improvement and the less than college educated workers.

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Speaker 1: So yes, just get a little bit like what we

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Speaker 1: saw in the nineteen nineties, where you are bringing in

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Speaker 1: marginally attached workers into the labor force. And so yes,

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Speaker 1: I would again say, yeah, that there is an improvement there.

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Speaker 1: I mean, and that's two thirds the people we need

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Speaker 1: to bring in. And we we learned from Jim Glassman

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Speaker 1: of JP Morgan earlier that two thirds of the labor

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Speaker 1: force in America do not have a college degree. And

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Speaker 1: and many of these folks still have fairly well paying

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Speaker 1: jobs in specific sectors and specific industries. So is that

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Speaker 1: a demographic metrics that's going to change, or we're going

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Speaker 1: to see the labor force become more educated, or is

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Speaker 1: this something that's just the nature of the US uh population. Well,

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Speaker 1: I would say that over the last twenty or three years,

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Speaker 1: more and more the population has become college educated. I

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Speaker 1: think a more and more the population can become educated

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Speaker 1: again through you know, sometimes the post high school or

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Speaker 1: completion of high school is really key to start with

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Speaker 1: post high school, going to community colleges, junior colleges call

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Speaker 1: you with the will um and developing particular skills um

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Speaker 1: that can evolve. I don't think. I gotta believe that

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Speaker 1: every one of us when we go home at night

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Speaker 1: on the weekend, this weekend, we will see an ad

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Speaker 1: on TV for some plumbing company, some glass company, something local,

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Speaker 1: and it's oftentimes run by somebody who doesn't have a

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Speaker 1: college degree but has twenty of thirty years of hot experience.

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Speaker 1: And I believe, you know, you can't throw these people away.

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Speaker 1: You've got to get him well and okay, fine, not

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Speaker 1: all of them finished some education, fine, but some well Okay,

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Speaker 1: speaking of throwing away John Sylvia's something else went up

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Speaker 1: this week besides economics. David Ortiz batting average went from

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Speaker 1: a one seventy one to a one seventy five for

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg twelve Boston. You are surveillance Red SOX expert. We

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Speaker 1: spoke to Sam Kennedy about the third base tobacco uh

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Speaker 1: and then they're gonna go with Mr Shaw. David Ortiz

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Speaker 1: has he got another season left? Mr Sylvia, Yes, I

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Speaker 1: think he does have another season left good enough baseball

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Speaker 1: to help the Red Sox. Absolutely, we'll leave it at that,

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Speaker 1: John Sylvia, you heard it there, or teases d H

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Speaker 1: will have a wonderful victory lap and we'll ascend from

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Speaker 1: as well as seventy five spring training average. We think

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Speaker 1: John Sylvia wells Fargo for his perspective and very importantly

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Speaker 1: his perspective on the mobility of American labor and how

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Speaker 1: they move around. And Barry I thought that Economic Policy

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Speaker 1: Institute angle was great. There's still a lot of Americans

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Speaker 1: out there struggling, There's no doubt about it. That's why

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Speaker 1: this has been the wacky political season. They found voice

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Speaker 1: on the left and the right with Bernie and Donald.

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Speaker 1: One of our important voices on jobs, say, Scott Mather

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Speaker 1: will join us from Pimco. Really with a with a

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Speaker 1: wonderful holistic view. To get you to Friday and into

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Speaker 1: your weekend reading, Are you gonna publish Barry within your crush?

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Speaker 1: You know your your twelve hour workday with us? Are

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Speaker 1: you got something coming out this weekend? I have something

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Speaker 1: coming up on the missing productivity numbers and a good

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Speaker 1: long term, long form weekend reach. Do you think you

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Speaker 1: think Ridholtz works three hours a day, But to be honest, folks,

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Speaker 1: he's like putting it in. I'm like John Tucker, just

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Speaker 1: like this vacation, getting it done, Scott Mather, Pimco. Next,

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Speaker 1: then oil, counting down to the open and down product

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Speaker 1: you by the Jeep Grand Cherokee that ust toward a

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Speaker 1: sub after the Grand Cherokee continues to raise the bar

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Speaker 1: with its luxurious interior legendary four by four A capability

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Speaker 1: tripolot at your local jeep dealer today