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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds and an economist. You gov poll found

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Speaker 1: that fifty six percent of respondents strongly or somewhat disapprove

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Speaker 1: of the president's handling of the Epstein investigations. We have

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Speaker 1: such a great show for you today, talking fed's own

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Speaker 1: Harry Litman stops by to talk about Trump's legal snap

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Speaker 1: foods with the Epstein files. Then we'll talk to Strength

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Speaker 1: and Numbers Substack author g Elliott Morris about the interesting

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Speaker 1: polling he has discovered and how it shows that Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump is not popular with independence and he's becoming really

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Speaker 1: not popular with young people.

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Speaker 2: But first the news, So Molly, yesterday the k file

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Speaker 2: from CNN found pictures of Jeffrey Epstein at Trump and

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Speaker 2: Marvel Maple's wedding. It's really shocked to hear that his

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Speaker 2: best friend of decade would be at his wedding and

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Speaker 2: they called him and Trump took it really well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean the headline in The New Republic, which

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Speaker 1: we love because it's edited by the great Mike Tamaski.

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Speaker 1: Among other things, Trump crashes out over damning surface photos.

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Speaker 1: So there's a guy at CNN whose name is Andrew Kazinski,

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Speaker 1: no relation to Ted. And Andrew Kazinsky is like a

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Speaker 1: super sluice. You just never want Andrew Kazinski coming after you,

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Speaker 1: is all I can say. You'll be very surprised to

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Speaker 1: hear that. Not only did Donald Trump say in two

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Speaker 1: thousand and two to New York Magazine that Jeffrey Emstein

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Speaker 1: is a terrific guy and who likes beautiful women almost

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Speaker 1: as much as I do, and some of them on

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Speaker 1: the younger side. Not only did he say quotes about him,

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Speaker 1: but he also took photos with him. And it turns

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Speaker 1: out that jeff epp was at a lot of things

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Speaker 1: in New York Magazine. He said that Epstein was a

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Speaker 1: terrific guy, and he's known him for fifteen years. Anyway,

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Speaker 1: these pictures, there's pictures Jeffrey Epstein at Trump's second wedding.

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Speaker 1: When Kazinski called Trump, he said, we were not on

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Speaker 1: the phone very long. I think our call lasts about

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Speaker 1: thirty seconds. But when I asked him about the wedding photo,

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Speaker 1: he said he sort of paused for a second and

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Speaker 1: then and then said, quote, you've got to be kidding

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Speaker 1: me before calling CNN fake news and hanging up. Stephen Chung,

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Speaker 1: who is known to be a very thoughtful and sensitive guy.

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Speaker 1: The White House Communications Director, ferociously spit back at the network,

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Speaker 1: decrying the images as nothing more than out of context

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Speaker 1: frame grabs of innocuous videos and pictures of widely intended events.

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Speaker 1: Was in everyone at Trump's second wedding. U QCNN of

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Speaker 1: leveraging the images in its reporting to discuss stingy infer

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Speaker 1: something nefarious. Yes, that's right. Weren't we all friends with

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Speaker 1: Jeffrey Epstein? The fact that the President kicked him out

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Speaker 1: of his club for being a creep, which Trump World

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Speaker 1: says is nothing more. Again, you know whatever, they they're

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Speaker 1: going to deny it.

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Speaker 2: So let me take the listeners down a very stupid

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Speaker 2: hole of the internet. Kendas Owens, who is a former

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Speaker 2: Daily Wire host and has a very very popular podcast,

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Speaker 2: often does this very weird conspiracy theory that first Lady

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Speaker 2: Bridget Macrone, the wife of Emmanuel Macron, is trans and

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Speaker 2: her followers and her transvestigate her all day where they

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Speaker 2: look at her calf muscles and analyze that they are

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Speaker 2: off by millimeters and so clearly she was born to mail. Well,

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Speaker 2: guess what they're suing for defamation now, and that's exactly

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Speaker 2: what should happen.

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Speaker 1: So Owens had an eight part podcast for eight parts, okay,

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Speaker 1: eight parts? How many parts we have on Project twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five?

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Speaker 2: Four?

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Speaker 1: Four? Okay? So we had four on Project twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 1: which is this book that the Trump administration pages. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: he has seven hundred page book of things the Trump

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Speaker 1: administration put out, but they had eight parts of becoming

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Speaker 1: Brigid as a secret trans woman and a blood relative

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Speaker 1: of her husband. Again, there was very disgusting conservative lie.

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Speaker 1: Conservative is the wrong word, Maga lie about Michelle Obama.

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Speaker 1: And I just want to point out McCrone has this

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Speaker 1: interesting marriage because he's very, very handsome, and his wife

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Speaker 1: is older than him, and in a very misogynistic culture,

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Speaker 1: an older wife is almost you know, there's sort of

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Speaker 1: a like, should you be married to someone who's older.

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Speaker 1: It's her value, she has less value. That's the misogyny, right,

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Speaker 1: that as women get older, they get less valuable to

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Speaker 1: the culture. And so the idea is, here's macrone, he's

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Speaker 1: the president of France, he's very handsome, he should be

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Speaker 1: married to someone who's much younger, because that is the

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Speaker 1: innate misogyny of this situation. So why this is important

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Speaker 1: is besides the fact that it's disgusting and appalling and

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Speaker 1: the Crones are right pursuing, it's also just another way

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Speaker 1: in which a woman has internalized misogyny and is now

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Speaker 1: spouting it out right. The idea is that somehow there's

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Speaker 1: no world in which he could actually love an older woman,

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Speaker 1: that in fact, this is some kind of conspiracy.

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Speaker 2: The conspiracy is that the world is being run by

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Speaker 2: a gang of satanic pedophiles masquating as Jewish people. That's

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Speaker 2: an exact quote.

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Speaker 1: Actually, wow, it's just worth remember that there's always this

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Speaker 1: sort of another terrifying subtext to all of this.

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Speaker 2: Well, and the other terrifying subtext, which is kind of

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Speaker 2: not subtext, is that she's not backing down. She says

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Speaker 2: that she's going to keep going, which is going to

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Speaker 2: make this defamation suit just keep mounting and mounting and mounting,

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Speaker 2: which I for one hope it really brings her.

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Speaker 1: Room and she's going to lose by the way she is.

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Speaker 2: So let's get to my personal nightmare fuel unregulated AI

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Speaker 2: development today with the Trump administration unveiled its plans to

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Speaker 2: give AI to developers a freehand, and what I would

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Speaker 2: more say is no regulation and no oversight.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, you'd be shocked, right because Congress is

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Speaker 1: also going to give them no regulation and no oversight.

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Speaker 1: I just want to point out this is like my

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Speaker 1: favorite hobby horse, because this is one where Democrats have

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Speaker 1: apps of fucking lotely fallen down on the job big time.

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Speaker 1: This is Congress' is grift right that they have kids

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Speaker 1: who work for tech companies, they have spouses who invest

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Speaker 1: in technology. They have this and that that have created

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Speaker 1: a incentive structure that rewards not regulating tech companies. And

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Speaker 1: so here is AI something that gets smarter or something

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Speaker 1: that has capabilities that we don't totally understand, that uses

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Speaker 1: tons and tons and tons and tons of electricity, that

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Speaker 1: will use more electricity than I read a statistic that

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Speaker 1: it uses more electricity than certain states do in a year.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it is just something that desperately needs to

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Speaker 1: be regulated. So Donald Trump, the King of regulation, just kidding,

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Speaker 1: has said he won't regulate it. And you'll remember that

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Speaker 1: in the BBB there was this weird bit of legislative

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Speaker 1: language about States being not allowed to regulate AI for

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Speaker 1: a decade. Clearly this was a setup and the people,

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Speaker 1: from what I understand, the person who is the most

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Speaker 1: against regulating AI going to be shocked to hear this

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Speaker 1: is the quietly the most evil of the whole crew.

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Speaker 1: Can you guess Teal now? Cool? Mark Zuckerberg, Oh yeah,

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Speaker 1: that makes sense. It squares right. The man who kept

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Speaker 1: who is basically managed to make it so that tech

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Speaker 1: is not regulated. And I mean Congress, certainly there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of blame to go around here, but that he

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Speaker 1: is the person. Again that's not reported. That's just what

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Speaker 1: I heard from gossip. But it is still something so.

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Speaker 2: In really great news for the American economy that always

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Speaker 2: ends up being a harbinger of really great things to come.

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Speaker 2: Take my sarcasm as it is. Home prices have hit

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Speaker 2: a record high in June, driving down sales. That always

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Speaker 2: leads to great things, right, Molly.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you'll remember that Trump said he was going to

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Speaker 1: make everything cheaper. That was his big thing. You know

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Speaker 1: this that bacon cheaper. Well, home prices are not cheaper.

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Speaker 1: In fact, we've hit a record high home price reflecting

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Speaker 1: multiple years of undersupply. So this is inflation, and Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump has a solution, which is to fire the FED chair,

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Speaker 1: which will not lower inflation. If anything, it will be

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Speaker 1: inflationary again. Just a complete, incomplete, complete, complete, complete disaster.

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Speaker 1: Or here the second quarter we had negative growth. So

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Speaker 1: now it just seems to me very likely that we

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Speaker 1: are paying a price for the trade war already.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Harry Littman is a former US attorney and the host

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Speaker 1: of the podcast Talking Feds.

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Speaker 3: Hey, Hey, everyone, it's our latest Molly Harry mashup where

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Speaker 3: Mallijong Fast throws legal questions my way and I return

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Speaker 3: fire with political questions. Let me just say, always a

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Speaker 3: pleasure to be with the celebrated Maulli Young Fast, who

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Speaker 3: has added since the last time we were here to

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Speaker 3: her long famous resume, a new book, How to Lose

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Speaker 3: Your Mother, which came out last month muzzletub New York

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Speaker 3: Times bestseller Baby, New York Times bestseller Baby. Okay, And

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Speaker 3: speaking of the New York Times, man, you had a

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Speaker 3: great article in there that was sort of part memoir

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Speaker 3: and part political analysis about the Stephen Colbert firing. And

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Speaker 3: let me start with that. You wrote there that canceling

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Speaker 3: Colbert isn't funny, but you noted how the point of

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Speaker 3: authoritarian coercion is. It's a motivator, and man, we're seeing

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Speaker 3: it sort of everywhere where he's been. Has Trump in

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Speaker 3: this first eighth of his new term pretty damn successful

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Speaker 3: in getting people, including broad sectors of civil society, to

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Speaker 3: really toe the line or approach the line. Why is

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Speaker 3: he so much more effective at doing that and sort

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Speaker 3: of calling the speech of big sectors of the country

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Speaker 3: than he was last time around? Do you think so?

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Speaker 1: There's actually a really smart piece in the Times today,

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Speaker 1: an opinion piece from the former ambassador to Hungary a

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Speaker 1: bad vector or bond and how dangerous all of this is.

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Speaker 1: And I would say I think Trump is effective at

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Speaker 1: doing it because people don't understand the stakes of the decisions.

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Speaker 1: So if you're Sherry Redstone, you think, I want to

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Speaker 1: do this merger so I can have two billion dollars,

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Speaker 1: And you think, well, you know Colbert nighttime shows, they

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Speaker 1: are not the business they once were, and all of

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Speaker 1: this is very expensive and it's a huge headache. So

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Speaker 1: let's just kill it. It'll make Trump happy, it'll make

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Speaker 1: the deal go, right, That's what she's thinking. She's thinking,

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Speaker 1: whatever it doesn't matter. I just got to get my

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Speaker 1: deal done. This is a consequence of an imperial presidency, right,

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Speaker 1: a presidency that no longer has any kind of firewall

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Speaker 1: between regulation and Trump's whims. So Trump does not like

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Speaker 1: to be made fun of. His regular Tory body serves

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Speaker 1: at his pleasure ergo goodbye to late night hosts, possibly

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Speaker 1: one and all, because, as you and I both know,

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Speaker 1: network television and also cable television has a regulatory body that,

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Speaker 1: unlike the Internet or anything else, really is regulated.

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Speaker 3: They're going to be jumpy at least, right. And it's

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Speaker 3: a great article, by the way, because he said I

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Speaker 3: saw this happening.

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Speaker 1: And basically what he says is, you don't put together

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Speaker 1: this one decision with what it ends up happening. Now.

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Speaker 1: I'm not convinced that Hungary and America are one to

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Speaker 1: one for any number of reasons, but we certainly have

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Speaker 1: an Orbanic figure in Trump, right, orbon putin, an autocrat

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Speaker 1: who does not believe the rule of law applies to him.

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Speaker 1: So I do think there are a lot of parallels.

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Speaker 1: So it means really that powerful people might stand up

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Speaker 1: to Trump. That means it's more important than ever that

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Speaker 1: a Jeff Bezos, who obviously in his heart knows all

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Speaker 1: of this is insanitay that he stands up and again,

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Speaker 1: all of the writing about authoritarianism, all of the books

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Speaker 1: about authoritarism, say it's a game of inches, not feed.

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Speaker 3: That's so important.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, all right, so bring it. We're going to

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Speaker 1: do legal on Epstein. This entire time breaking news which

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Speaker 1: won't be breaking by tomorrow when people listen to this.

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Speaker 1: But Pam Bondi, who is very much in the hot

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Speaker 1: seat right now, decided she wanted the grand jury stuff

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Speaker 1: for Epstein, which is, by the way, just a very

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Speaker 1: very small slice of all of the Epstein stuff she

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Speaker 1: has on her desk, probably from the FBI to the DOJ.

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Speaker 1: All of that, A very slim sliver of it is

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Speaker 1: the grand jury stuff. And fyi, we know that all

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Speaker 1: the names will be redacted in grand jury stuff, accusers

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Speaker 1: and victims, which I think it's important data point. So

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Speaker 1: the judge said, no, go on that. Explain to us

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Speaker 1: why and what that looks like.

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Speaker 3: Sure, let me just start with the headline. It's not

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Speaker 3: just a slim slice. It's a slice that, in the

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Speaker 3: Van diagram has zero connection with what everyone's clamoring for

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Speaker 3: it's the slice that the parted marine Konmi you put

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Speaker 3: to put together an indictment that doesn't talk about It's

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Speaker 3: all about Epstein and Maxwell and the underage girls and

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Speaker 3: the people who facilitated. But what's Paul Engelmeyer up to

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Speaker 3: the rules? Molly say, here's six reasons why it's a

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Speaker 3: serious thing to uncover grand jury stuff in any event,

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Speaker 3: and yes, you were dac names. Here's six reasons why

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Speaker 3: you can do it. Guess what none of them is

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Speaker 3: the public interest, which is what this four page filing

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Speaker 3: by the Deputy Attorney General stunning in itself, says. But

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Speaker 3: there's no warrant for that in the rules. There maybe

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Speaker 3: is a little play in it joints according to one

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Speaker 3: second Circuit opinion, but that was not about public interest.

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Speaker 3: And imagine if public interest were a reason for piercing

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Speaker 3: this and going into a grand jurial. Maybe Trump wants

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Speaker 3: him to deny it. What is he doing for now?

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Speaker 2: Though?

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Speaker 3: Angel Myer says, I'm going to deal with this quickly,

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Speaker 3: but I need a few things, like the transcripts which

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Speaker 3: you haven't given me administration, Like what is Maxwell as

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Speaker 3: Julane's Maxwell's position on this. I want to hear about

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Speaker 3: the victims. This is just what I need so I

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Speaker 3: can make the decision. Is there a reason to do

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Speaker 3: this even though it's clearly not in the rules. So

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Speaker 3: you know, I think it's a gambit on their part.

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Speaker 3: They maybe hope he'll turn them down. But the number

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Speaker 3: one thing to understand, it's got nothing to do with

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Speaker 3: what everyone's clamoring for. What's that it's an FBI database

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Speaker 3: of three hundred gigabytes, that's like a million and a

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Speaker 3: half pages with the motherload of everything and the case

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Speaker 3: if you look at the indictment, you just didn't need

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Speaker 3: to prove anything about customers, pals wingman as we're now hearing,

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Speaker 3: or besting. He's got nothing to do with it, nor

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Speaker 3: even what you know maga's obsession with there being a

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Speaker 3: whole cabal of pedophiles and a leaf zero zero part

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Speaker 3: of the case. The case was sealed so that they

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Speaker 3: could retry Maxwell on the same charge as if they

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Speaker 3: wanted to. If you uncover it, it'll give nothing, which brings

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Speaker 3: me to my Epstein question. I only Fire wanted you,

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Speaker 3: But like Man, this is so different. I mean, he's

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Speaker 3: been flouting the Constitution and doing all these outrageous kinds

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Speaker 3: of a legal conduct. But this is the one that

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Speaker 3: has stuck. He has stepped in it for reasons that

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Speaker 3: I think a lot of people on one of them

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Speaker 3: didn't fully appreciate the real vehemence of the you saw.

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Speaker 3: Maybe Stewart Rhodes's quote comes out, this is what we

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Speaker 3: care about. We don't give a shit about trade pairs

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Speaker 3: any of that. This is what he's there for.

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Speaker 1: Explain who Stuart Roads is?

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Speaker 3: Okay, Stuart Rhoades maybe number one insurrectionists whom Trump pardoned.

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Speaker 3: He's the Yale glasschool guy with the patch who got

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Speaker 3: like a twenty year sentence, mister insurrey, and he's coming out.

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Speaker 1: Isn't he the head of the Proud Boys?

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Speaker 3: I think it is the Proud Boys, not not the

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Speaker 3: three not keep okay.

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Speaker 1: They have it fun fact he shot out his own

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Speaker 1: eye by accident.

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Speaker 3: These things happen right when you're yeah, all right? Anyway?

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Speaker 3: Does the administration is doing everything throwing stuff against the wall.

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Speaker 3: Maybe we'll talk about more, But the really big sally

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Speaker 3: in difference here is it's Maga that's up in arms.

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Speaker 3: And my you know, my question to you is whether

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Speaker 3: any of these half measures, like if the grand Jury

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Speaker 3: were to come out, but even more, will it satisfy them?

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Speaker 3: Is there a time when Maga, which you know is

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Speaker 3: even cowing members of Congress, the speaker, et cetera, will

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Speaker 3: say okay and let go of the bone that they have,

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Speaker 3: or is this not going away until Trump plays an

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Speaker 3: open hand with whatever the hell that reveals, because Mago

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Speaker 3: won't let it go away.

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Speaker 1: So this is a real question, and I think it's wild.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think we could start by realizing that

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Speaker 1: it's a great example of how in twenty sixteen there

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Speaker 1: were things that happened where we all thought they would

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Speaker 1: matter because they mattered to us, but they didn't matter

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Speaker 1: to the Trump Bay. So the Trumpeys operate in a

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Speaker 1: completely different sphere. A lot of times they wouldn't hear

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Speaker 1: about this stuff because it was in the liberal bobble,

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Speaker 1: and when they did, they were sort of immune to

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Speaker 1: it because Trump had in nerd them to it. He

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Speaker 1: had said, you know, the even like a really interesting

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Speaker 1: moment was during this whole thing where he was like,

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Speaker 1: it's a hoax. It's a fake hoax, like the Russia, Russia, Russia.

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Speaker 1: When he spoke during the election. He would say things

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Speaker 1: like bacon, and his people would know he was talking

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Speaker 1: about inflation. Right, I'd say, bacon, and that's what this is, right,

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Speaker 1: This is the base is very tuned into him. They

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Speaker 1: usually respond, Like with bacon, they usually respond, But here,

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden, that's not what's happening. And I

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Speaker 1: think it's caught him very off guard, and he thought

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Speaker 1: he could just sort of bully them into submission, which

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Speaker 1: he has been able to do with all. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you have to remember all elected Republicans, from Mitch McConnell

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Speaker 1: to John Thoon to Mike Johnson, if they haven't behaved,

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Speaker 1: he's just kicked him out. So there has been no one.

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Speaker 1: He has effectively had pushback from no one, with the

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Speaker 1: exception of maybe Elon after he fired Elon, right, but

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Speaker 1: Elon's out, so he has almost no pushback, and all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden, the base starts pushing back and he

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Speaker 1: is not ready for that, and so he just says,

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Speaker 1: don't be weak, which I think was strategically the worst

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Speaker 1: thing he could have said to them. Like I think

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Speaker 1: if he had said, I was here to sow, you know,

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Speaker 1: to find the deep state, you Remember he has for

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Speaker 1: almost a decade been like, I am here to solve

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Speaker 1: the deep state, and then he gets there and he's like,

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Speaker 1: you're stupid for thinking there's a deep state. And I

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Speaker 1: think it's very undermining. I mean, I just think the

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Speaker 1: problem here is Trump one point zero would have fired everyone, right.

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Speaker 1: He would have fired Pam Bondi, he would have fired Bongino,

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Speaker 1: he might have fired Patel. And what would have happened,

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Speaker 1: I think is that the chaos would have sort of

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Speaker 1: absorbed what happened. But instead he's like very into this,

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Speaker 1: not firing people and just moving them around in the

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Speaker 1: hopes that they won't leave. And I actually think it

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Speaker 1: doesn't serve got it?

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Speaker 3: And you maybe I got a legal point to that,

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Speaker 3: But maybe that's what you're going to ask me, because

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Speaker 3: you say you're all Epstein all the time, at least today,

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Speaker 3: So bring it. What do you got?

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Speaker 1: No, if you have a legal point, go, well, what boy.

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Speaker 3: Is just this? You say, he's done the stupidest thing.

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Speaker 3: I it's politically strategically, he's done absolute lutely the stupidest

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Speaker 3: thing legally, because look, there is some truth to him.

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Speaker 3: You know, he's some kind of pal there's not necessarily

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Speaker 3: any reason to think he's a client or anything like that.

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Speaker 3: But he made it in his reflexive way all about

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Speaker 3: he came out fake media, and it's all about this

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Speaker 3: piece of paper, this letter he wrote Epstein, and he's

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Speaker 3: saying it's fake and I'm sorry. We know anybody was

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Speaker 3: sophisticated about the media knows this is not fake. Wall

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Speaker 3: Street Journal has it buttoned down, not just the actual letter.

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Speaker 1: Rupert Murdach knows about publishing controversial stuff and he's not

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Speaker 1: gonna do it unless right.

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Speaker 3: And they are all in. This is not like CBF

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Speaker 3: or Amy, where they're gonna knuckle under. So he's done

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Speaker 3: the exact strategy that A extends things be puts him

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Speaker 3: through a like discovery and a deposition, and at the

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Speaker 3: end of the day the card gets turned over and

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Speaker 3: it's exactly what he's been saying. It isn't so legally.

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Speaker 3: I can't think of anything worse than the defamation suit.

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Speaker 1: Tina Brown, though, did have an amazing quip at the

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Speaker 1: end of this New York Times article where she was like,

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Speaker 1: we have Rupert Murdock is the only media mogul.

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Speaker 3: I mean freedoms, yes, ex but.

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Speaker 1: It is kind of amazing and also pretty disturbing.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, but I think in his universe you wouldn't know better, Molly.

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Speaker 3: But I think, look, that news operation of the Wall

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Speaker 3: Street Journal is just a separate thing. Everyone would just

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Speaker 3: leave if he totally pulled out the run from under them.

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Speaker 3: It's not Fox News.

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Speaker 1: Right, no question. And by the way, Fox News has

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Speaker 1: not been covering it, right, I mean like there's been

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Speaker 1: It's been mentioned twice some Fox News and supposedly. I

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Speaker 1: mean I read this in the in the ft, so.

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Speaker 3: It's Tony, you cover the waterfront.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not entirely sure what this means. But what

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Speaker 1: Murdoch's lieutenant, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Rupert

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Speaker 1: was pushing to see whether the base was still with Trump.

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Speaker 1: Because what Rupert Murdoch, which I think is pretty smart,

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Speaker 1: I mean bad for American democracy and for all of us,

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Speaker 1: and morally very dicey, but smart, what he saw in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty was that he is that Fox News is

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Speaker 1: not more powerful than its viewers, that the viewers are

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Speaker 1: actually more powerful than the narrative. And so if the

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Speaker 1: narrative goes off the cliff and says Trump didn't win

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Speaker 1: the election, and Trump says he did win the election.

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Speaker 1: They will just tune out, they will turn off. So

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Speaker 1: he is trying to poke and now see if they

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Speaker 1: are going to be separated from him, And there's certainly

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Speaker 1: some evidence to support a possibility that they will be.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean more than some it seems so far.

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Speaker 3: It's not just do it road right. You've also seen

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Speaker 3: like a whole cast of characters, Cannon and Ingram and

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Speaker 3: Meghan Kelly basically finding something they care about more than

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: So it's so supid because like they should care about

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Speaker 1: rural hospitals closing but whatever.

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Speaker 3: And the constitution and the rule of law.

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Speaker 4: But here we go.

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Speaker 1: I want to know Congress has been talking about maybe

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Speaker 1: trying to get some of this stuff released. There's a

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Speaker 1: huge amount of Ebstein stuff that's at the DOJIB.

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Speaker 3: Three hundred gigabytes, like a million and a half pages

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Speaker 3: roughly speaking, depending what's on there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so if you wanted to get it released, who

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Speaker 1: could get it released?

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump or Pam Bondy. It's with the FBI now,

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Speaker 3: so it implicates the whole Bongino Patel Bondy mess. Now

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Speaker 3: and we've seen over the you know in Trump one

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Speaker 3: point zero Congress on paper has pretty strong you know,

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Speaker 3: they were going to maybe do it subpoena. I don't

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Speaker 3: see that working basically. I think you'll see stonewalling, maybe

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Speaker 3: even embedded by the court, if a Supreme Court, if

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Speaker 3: it comes to it, And that means it's going to

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Speaker 3: be a decision that will be on Trump alone. In

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Speaker 3: that means it's going to be based on the political dynamic.

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Speaker 3: But all this stuff, Mollie, the DOJ is now wading

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Speaker 3: into it and doing this grand jury thing. This is

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Speaker 3: not what they do. It is all funky in the extreme.

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Speaker 3: Normally there's a case they're investigating or something. Now there

431
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:22,680
Speaker 3: is no warrant for much less the Deputy Attorney General

432
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 3: to go I just want to talk to Gilaine Maxwell.

433
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 3: God knows what he's going to try to offer her.

434
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:31,359
Speaker 3: On the like, they are all upriver and doing this

435
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 3: sort of thing they would never have done before because

436
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:37,919
Speaker 3: it's so plainly political. It's a political operation that at

437
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,200
Speaker 3: least for now you can imagine they're sort of constructing

438
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:44,639
Speaker 3: something that has a kind of law enforcement hook up

439
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 3: to and including you know, some people say Epstein was

440
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 3: murdered for example. But right now they're just freelancing for

441
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 3: political reasons and inappropriately at least pre Trump era, because

442
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 3: they're obviously the number one lookout here is solving a

443
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,680
Speaker 3: political crisis for the White House. So they've thrown out

444
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 3: the rule book long since, and they're playing by whatever

445
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 3: rules they want and making people try to stop them,

446
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 3: and so far on this kind of thing anyway, you know,

447
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:13,360
Speaker 3: the record of the courts for stopping them isn't good.

448
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 3: So the bottom line answer has to be greenlighted by Trump.

449
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 3: And you would know this better than I. But I

450
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 3: think that's a political dynamic, right, no question, Oh miter,

451
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 3: so interested in what's going on with young voters who

452
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:29,440
Speaker 3: were among the people who deserted Harris and the others

453
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:32,399
Speaker 3: and really seemed young males, but really young voters in

454
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 3: general to do so much so we have I've never

455
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:40,159
Speaker 3: seen something quite like this, A like reversal from what

456
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 3: was it, you know, seventy twenty fourth pro to like

457
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 3: the exact opposite. You know, the buyer's remorse is super strong.

458
00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:49,399
Speaker 3: What do you make of the shift? And do you

459
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:51,360
Speaker 3: think it's got legs?

460
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 1: Funny? You should ask that, but I believe it or not.

461
00:26:56,200 --> 00:27:00,160
Speaker 1: The other interview on this episode is a guy called

462
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 1: g Elliott Morris who goes through the polling with me

463
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:08,159
Speaker 1: one by one and explain sort of what happened. But basically,

464
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 1: young adults age eighteen two thirty four have he sold

465
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 1: himself on the podcast and then he got in there

466
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 1: and they don't like anything he's doing. And I think

467
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 1: they don't like the regressive taxation, they don't like the

468
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 1: tax cuts for billionaires, they don't like the dissolving of Medicaid.

469
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,240
Speaker 1: They don't like any of it. And I think he

470
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 1: had a very smart point. They grew up in Obama Land.

471
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:38,959
Speaker 1: They believed that the government. You know, they're not Reagan kids.

472
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 1: You know, I grew up in Reagan when the goal

473
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 1: of Reagan was to make the government as small as possible.

474
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 1: Droughted in the bathtub, you know, how dare you want

475
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:48,920
Speaker 1: a weather forecast?

476
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:53,160
Speaker 3: You know their traffic controller R care to you a monster?

477
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 1: You can control your own air. And I think that

478
00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:03,159
Speaker 1: Obama really reset and then COVID really reset again. So

479
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 1: the thing that he said that I thought was the

480
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:07,640
Speaker 1: most interesting, And you should listen to this interview because

481
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 1: there's just a lot of really interesting stuff in there

482
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:13,680
Speaker 1: that I wouldn't have just to get you don't miss it.

483
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:15,640
Speaker 1: Just to have him walk through the data was made

484
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:18,159
Speaker 1: was really interesting. But the thing that he said that

485
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 1: I thought was the most interesting was that the only

486
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:26,919
Speaker 1: thing less popular than what they're doing now was in

487
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:31,360
Speaker 1: Trump's first term when he tried that Obamacare repeal. So

488
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 1: because the BBB hasn't it a skinny Medicare Medicaid or

489
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:40,080
Speaker 1: repeal that was hidden in reconciliation. By the way, what

490
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 1: happened to the parliamentarian who was like, yes, you can

491
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 1: repeal Obamacare, you know in the in reconciliation, like.

492
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 3: The ghost of Robert Byrd seems to have left the building,

493
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 3: doesn't it. Yeah?

494
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, But that I think is really interesting. And again,

495
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 1: so the question is have his midterm. We're six months

496
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:01,200
Speaker 1: into Trump's term, which means we're eighteen months for the midterms.

497
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 1: The question is young voters are already unhappy. How much more

498
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:08,960
Speaker 1: unhappy can they get? For Breezio, Trump's pollster says it

499
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 1: about ten percent of his base are like straight QAnon

500
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 1: right there, the paranoid style in American politics, So that

501
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 1: ten percent, here's a real question, does he lose that

502
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 1: ten percent.

503
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 3: I mean because of Epstein, right.

504
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 1: And if he loses that ten percent, even if they

505
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 1: don't vote for Democrats, they just don't go out for

506
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 1: him and they don't vote for his candidates. Ten percent

507
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:31,480
Speaker 1: is a lot of.

508
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 3: Voters for him've been governing on a minority razor's edge.

509
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, last question. Trump has a lot of fanciful

510
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 1: stuff to try to distract. One of them is Telsea

511
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 1: Gabbert has this crazy Barack Obama treason. She's going to

512
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:52,040
Speaker 1: refer it to the Justice Department. It seems insane, But

513
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 1: is there a world in which this really does, Like

514
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 1: do we see Trump trying to arrest Barack Obama? Or

515
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 1: is this just fanciful so we don't see it?

516
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 3: And we've had a lot of this, Yeah, I mean

517
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 3: my favorite I gather there's like an AI thing out

518
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 3: there they've created with Obama, you know, talk about the

519
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 3: new world we are in now. It does strike me,

520
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 3: Mollie that these are mainly diversionary tactic. Same thing with

521
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 3: the Redskins, and I'm going to scuttle that if they

522
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:23,080
Speaker 3: don't change the name. You know, really a whole bunch

523
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 3: of stuff that best I can tell is just not working.

524
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,240
Speaker 3: But I don't think there's a world, even our world,

525
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:34,440
Speaker 3: even the Hungary version of our world, where he tries

526
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 3: to arrest Obama, and I don't think Obama thinks so

527
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 3: either much. We're to say on that, but don't need to.

528
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 3: I think that's the bottom line, and I know we're

529
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,480
Speaker 3: out of time. Always so fun and best of luck

530
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 3: with the book. And by the way, that New York

531
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 3: Times article talks about your grandfather and the McCarthy era

532
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 3: and it's returning now. Everyone should read that too.

533
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 1: Key Elliott Morris is the author The Strength in Numbers

534
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 1: substat Welcome to Fast Politics, Elliot.

535
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 4: Morris, Hey, thanks for having me back, Molly.

536
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 1: So I always like to just for everyone who's not

537
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 1: completely read up on this, I've been a longtime fan

538
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 1: of Elliott's work doing polling, statistical sort of the more

539
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 1: math side of politics. I think that's fair and I.

540
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 4: Had it's a very generous way to put it, Molly.

541
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 1: I long wanted to have him on the podcast, but

542
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 1: he was at five thirty eight, and then now you

543
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 1: started at five thirty eight, right, and then the economist

544
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 1: he was.

545
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:36,280
Speaker 4: An economist, and then five thirty eight slash ABC that's

546
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:38,360
Speaker 4: probably where we were running into some problems setting me

547
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 4: on the bar.

548
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:42,200
Speaker 1: Right, But even the economists is actually we have a

549
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 1: lot of people from the economists on and their fabulous anyway.

550
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 1: Point is, I've been a longtime fan of your work

551
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 1: because you look at the numbers in a more of

552
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 1: a sort of whole body experience, and because so much

553
00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 1: of this kind of stuff is about what's asked, how

554
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 1: it's asked, what medium it's asked. There's just a lot

555
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 1: of nuance that can really mess you up if you

556
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 1: have it wrong. So you have new polls yesterday, and

557
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 1: I would love you to start by talking about that. Sure.

558
00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, So over at Strengthened Numbers my sub stack, we've

559
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 4: been doing a poll with pulling from called versaite.

560
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 3: I'm supposed to say them.

561
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:21,400
Speaker 4: We do this every month, so we've done this with May, June,

562
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:23,840
Speaker 4: and July. This is our third survey. That's important because

563
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 4: we can look at changes over time, so for example,

564
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:28,600
Speaker 4: or the lack of changes.

565
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:28,840
Speaker 2: Really.

566
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 4: For example, we found the Democrats have been leading in

567
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 4: the generic house ballot for the last three surveys. They're

568
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 4: up by four. Now, for context, that's the survey that

569
00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 4: asks who would you vote for in your local district

570
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 4: at the election we're hell today, so it's a proxy

571
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 4: for the House vote, so stable pro democratic. We also

572
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:49,800
Speaker 4: asked Trump approval.

573
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 1: Just for a second, because I just because not everyone

574
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 1: is this read in on this as perhaps they would

575
00:32:57,400 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 1: like to not be, but they need to be because

576
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:02,520
Speaker 1: this is the future of American democracy and possibly our

577
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 1: last election. What not to be hyperbolic, but I think

578
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 1: it's pretty much true. Can you explain what usual House

579
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 1: generic is like usually sort of historically what the numbers are,

580
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:21,960
Speaker 1: because four it is actually a seismically huge number for that. Yeah.

581
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, So typically what happens is in the like two

582
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 4: years before in midterm, so once the new president takes office,

583
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 4: between that day, which in this case was January twentieth,

584
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 4: twenty twenty five, and the next midterm, which will be

585
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 4: next November, the party that controls the White House, in

586
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 4: this case Republicans tends to lose ground over time, so

587
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 4: they start off doing pretty well, so that would indicate

588
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 4: that Republicans should be doing much better in fact, maybe

589
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 4: even leading or tied in the generic ballot. The fact

590
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 4: that they're down forward now is consequential for them. It

591
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 4: points to a bad midterm. Just for context, at this

592
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 4: point in twenty eighteen, Democrats were up six, so not four,

593
00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 4: but like we know, within the margin of error.

594
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 1: Right, it's still humongo. These are huge numbers. Usually the day,

595
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:10,759
Speaker 1: you know, usually one party is up one or two

596
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 1: in these generic because you don't have a candidate, it's

597
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:17,320
Speaker 1: really just a which party is making you the least

598
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:21,200
Speaker 1: mad kind of question? All right, so continue.

599
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:24,440
Speaker 4: So, so we've got those generic ballot numbers and the

600
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 4: paradox here, which you'll notice Democrats are up for Trump

601
00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 4: is underwater severely in his approval ratings. He's down by

602
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 4: fifteen points, So fifty seven percent of the public say

603
00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 4: they disapprove of him, forty two percent say they approve.

604
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 4: That's pretty terrible. For context, no other president except for

605
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 4: Trump in his first term, has had an approval rating

606
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:51,160
Speaker 4: that bad at this point through their term.

607
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:54,359
Speaker 1: Because we're six months into the Trump press Trump two

608
00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 1: point zero.

609
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, six months cent of president's typically still popular by

610
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:01,239
Speaker 4: like twenty points. Even you'll bind that this point was

611
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:05,760
Speaker 4: popular by fifteen points, so minus fifteen is also a

612
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:09,640
Speaker 4: very bad number. Trump is at the issue level, He's

613
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:14,880
Speaker 4: unpopular on everything from inflation and jobs in the economy

614
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:19,640
Speaker 4: and tariffs to deportations, and immigration, where his numbers have

615
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 4: decreased significantly since our June survey.

616
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 1: So let's stop and talk about those immigration numbers for

617
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 1: a minute, because I think that's really important Trump. What

618
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 1: the sort of the two things that Trump was elected on,

619
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:36,759
Speaker 1: if you're going to take the sort of what information

620
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 1: we got from that twenty twenty four cycle was the

621
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:44,319
Speaker 1: economy and immigration. People were mad at immigrants, people were

622
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 1: mad at inflation, right, I think it's important to realize, like,

623
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 1: he's underwater in the economy. This is, like, I think, also,

624
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:55,880
Speaker 1: the first time he's ever been underwater on the economy,

625
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 1: or at least in this way. So can you talk

626
00:35:58,200 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 1: us through that.

627
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:02,719
Speaker 4: So through his first term, Trump had a slight lead

628
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:06,399
Speaker 4: on the economy until his numbers got so bad that he,

629
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:09,319
Speaker 4: you know, was just dragged down on everything. He's never

630
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:13,400
Speaker 4: been thirty points underwater on inflation right now, he's fifteen

631
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:16,840
Speaker 4: points excuse me, ten points underwater on jobs in the economy.

632
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 4: At this point in his first term, he was positive

633
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:21,799
Speaker 4: on both of these. Thanks. So yeah, I mean that

634
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 4: contributed to the I guess perception of Trump as a

635
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:30,359
Speaker 4: president who could like usher in economic growth or I

636
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 4: guess bring down prices or something, as the campaign claimed

637
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:36,479
Speaker 4: during the twenty twenty four election. Obviously, voters don't feel

638
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 4: that way anymore. Even if they did, you know, feel

639
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:42,479
Speaker 4: that way during the election, sixty one percent of people

640
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 4: are saying they don't like how he's handling inflation or

641
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 4: the economy right now. That's actually worse than Joe Biden

642
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 4: at this point in his presidency. So, you know, if

643
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:54,360
Speaker 4: you have this mental image of Joe Biden, that's like

644
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:57,879
Speaker 4: some sort of catastrophic president who raised prices. Actually, people

645
00:36:57,880 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 4: are feeling the same way about Trump right now, at

646
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:01,040
Speaker 4: least on inflation.

647
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 1: But more they're actually really feeling like there was some

648
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:07,760
Speaker 1: you know, there was a feeling that Trump that Biden

649
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 1: lost because of inflation, but he was still he had

650
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 1: better numbers on the economy than Trump did at this moment.

651
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:18,960
Speaker 4: At this point. Yeah, but even if if you look

652
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 4: at the twenty twenty four, if you look at the

653
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:23,000
Speaker 4: twenty twenty four impression of Biden, it's about this bad,

654
00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:25,880
Speaker 4: if not a little bit worse on the economy overall.

655
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 4: I think the thing here is that people just don't

656
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:30,920
Speaker 4: like how presidents. And not to get too much into this,

657
00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 4: but they just don't like inflation in general. So if

658
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:35,960
Speaker 4: you ask them, hey, how are you feeling about how

659
00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:38,239
Speaker 4: the president's handling inflation, They're going to say they don't

660
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 4: like it. And as soon as that's an issue for Trump,

661
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:44,960
Speaker 4: the reelection prospects for Republicans tank's it's not really a

662
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:47,439
Speaker 4: Republican thing. It's just a who's in party thing.

663
00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 1: People make people hate inflation and it kills her party.

664
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:55,359
Speaker 1: And that's true for Trump. Yeah, that's true, true, true

665
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:59,319
Speaker 1: for Democrats. The immigration stuff super interesting. I would love

666
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 1: you to talk us through where Trump was on immigration

667
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 1: on election day, where he is now, and some of

668
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:10,040
Speaker 1: how he got there. Sure.

669
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:14,359
Speaker 4: So when Trump took office, the idea was, you know,

670
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 4: the American people support his master deportation agenda. They want

671
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:21,960
Speaker 4: to get rid of criminals and everyone else. Importantly, who's

672
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 4: here you.

673
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:28,440
Speaker 1: Know without grandmotheration or whatever forty years Yeah.

674
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 4: Or this case in Missouri, the woman who works at

675
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:32,680
Speaker 4: the diner and the whole community is like, where did

676
00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 4: Carol go?

677
00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:33,560
Speaker 3: Right?

678
00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:36,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, she was taking went to a camp.

679
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:37,719
Speaker 3: Yeah.

680
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:41,359
Speaker 4: So so he was positive on immigration by about ten

681
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:45,759
Speaker 4: points when he started. Now he's underwater by five, and

682
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:48,920
Speaker 4: we can break this out. We can separate the questions,

683
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:51,040
Speaker 4: how do you think about the president handling immigration and

684
00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:53,839
Speaker 4: how do you think about the president handling deportation. Deportation's

685
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 4: actually worse close from to minus fifteen now almost as

686
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:01,440
Speaker 4: bad as people say he's doing on the economy, which

687
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:03,120
Speaker 4: is important because he used to be doing worse on

688
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 4: the economy now doing he's doing about the same on both.

689
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:11,320
Speaker 4: So that's just important from a strategy messaging perspective, And.

690
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 1: It's important because what it says is that people don't

691
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 1: like the camps, that Alligator Alcatraz is only for the base,

692
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:24,239
Speaker 1: at the very online base, but that normal people do

693
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:27,800
Speaker 1: not like a camp, and they.

694
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 4: Don't like to put the put the polling point on this.

695
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:37,520
Speaker 4: They don't like non criminal, unauthorized immigrants being deported period.

696
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:41,879
Speaker 4: For as often as we will see the image come

697
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 4: up on social media of all the people at the

698
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:47,840
Speaker 4: Trump rally holding the mass deportation sign, the impression of

699
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:50,359
Speaker 4: in what the campaign was claiming was that they were

700
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 4: going to deport everyone who's like a criminal, who's a

701
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:55,440
Speaker 4: bad guy. They have a real bad ombre, right, not

702
00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:57,839
Speaker 4: everyone else. And if you ask them, should we deport

703
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:00,160
Speaker 4: people who've been here for ten years? The supermajority the

704
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 4: public says no. If you ask them, should we deport

705
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 4: people who have kids here? People say no. So the

706
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:09,200
Speaker 4: more often Trump does that, his numbers fall off a cliff,

707
00:40:09,200 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 4: really underwater.

708
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:16,480
Speaker 1: So every story about a grandmother being deported, or a

709
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:21,120
Speaker 1: kid being separated from a mother, or a you know,

710
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 1: any of this stuff, which nobody wanted to begin with,

711
00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 1: probably ends up changing even more hearts and minds.

712
00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, and just think about the images too, that people

713
00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:34,239
Speaker 4: are saying on their television, Like, you know, it's one

714
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 4: thing to see the guy with the shaved head and

715
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:41,800
Speaker 4: the tattoo kneeling and in Cetot he saw an El Salvador,

716
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:44,959
Speaker 4: and like there are some cases where that's also people

717
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 4: are gonna think about that with like negative affect. They're

718
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:49,640
Speaker 4: gonna be like, oh, that's like weird. I don't like that.

719
00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 4: People watching Fox News they're gonna be like, okay, good,

720
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:53,919
Speaker 4: Like they're getting rid of the criminals. When they have

721
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:59,200
Speaker 4: like normal looking people, parents and kids being taken from

722
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 4: the bus to of the ice facility. That's a different

723
00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 4: image that people are seeing. And they've told us that

724
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:07,160
Speaker 4: they don't like those sorts of deportations. So you can

725
00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 4: imagine that the more those images are on TV, the

726
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:12,560
Speaker 4: more people start to reframe. They have a different image

727
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:16,880
Speaker 4: in their head about what the administration's deportation agenda is.

728
00:41:16,920 --> 00:41:19,720
Speaker 4: And that's worse for politically worse for Trump then before.

729
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:22,400
Speaker 4: It's also morally worse. But just try I'm not politics.

730
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:24,160
Speaker 1: Here, Yeah, yeah, yeah, keep going. Sure.

731
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 4: So we've also asked if I can change the subject

732
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 4: support for One Big Beautiful Bill.

733
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 1: That was actually where I was going to go next.

734
00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 1: So that's good.

735
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 4: And so yeah, if we're thinking about the theme of like, shit,

736
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:39,280
Speaker 4: that's bad for Donald Trump. This is probably worse than immigration.

737
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:41,680
Speaker 1: We asked not just.

738
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:43,960
Speaker 4: You know, do you support the bill, We get people specifics.

739
00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:46,760
Speaker 4: We said, it's cutting medicaid, it's cutting SNAP, it's increasing

740
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:49,279
Speaker 4: ice funding, and yeah, some people are going to get

741
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:51,880
Speaker 4: a tax cut, a lot of people aren't. So we

742
00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 4: asked support for those individual four things. They're all underwater,

743
00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 4: and medicaid is the most underwater. Sixty two percent of

744
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:03,239
Speaker 4: the public said they oppose of the Medicaid cuts in

745
00:42:03,320 --> 00:42:06,759
Speaker 4: the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which is one of

746
00:42:06,800 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 4: the worst numbers I've ever seen for these like support

747
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 4: oppose of the presidents agenda.

748
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 1: Ever seen sixty two percent of America. I mean, that's

749
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:18,640
Speaker 1: a crazy in polling world, that's a crazy number.

750
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:19,319
Speaker 2: Yeah.

751
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 4: To get sixty two percent of the public disapproving, you

752
00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:26,160
Speaker 4: have to do something pretty disastrous because it means inherently

753
00:42:26,239 --> 00:42:29,439
Speaker 4: that independence are like twenty points against you and you've

754
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:32,919
Speaker 4: lost like twenty percent of your party. To answer a question,

755
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:35,920
Speaker 4: I've never seen something that is, I guess in this

756
00:42:36,000 --> 00:42:41,240
Speaker 4: case thirty thirty points underwater, except for the twenty seventeen

757
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:43,319
Speaker 4: Republican health care bill that tried to do the same

758
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 4: thing that Republicans just did. Now, so the previous really

759
00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:50,320
Speaker 4: unpopular thing you'll maybe remember is a tarp bailout in

760
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:53,400
Speaker 4: two thousand, Right, that was terrible. That's what was gonna

761
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 4: like sun sunk. There was gonna sink Democrats in the House.

762
00:42:57,160 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 4: That was only eight points underwater, not thirty.

763
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 1: Wow.

764
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:04,360
Speaker 4: Aah, that's a really The ACA was five points underwater.

765
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 1: Right, And the ACA, I mean it's more important to

766
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:10,640
Speaker 1: remember that the ACA, which is Obamacare, which is now

767
00:43:11,000 --> 00:43:14,720
Speaker 1: this Medicaid expansion, which is now having a skinny repeal

768
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:18,719
Speaker 1: in the BBB, which is so unpopular, was unpopular because

769
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:20,759
Speaker 1: it was new and people didn't understand what it is.

770
00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:23,960
Speaker 1: This is unpopular because it's taking it away.

771
00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:28,479
Speaker 4: It's taking away benefit. I think people largely see us

772
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:30,400
Speaker 4: helping their neighbors.

773
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:34,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's something they had like that they're entitled to.

774
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:36,960
Speaker 4: In the tradeoff, people don't like the trade off. Specifically,

775
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:39,719
Speaker 4: we asked in our last survey in June, would you

776
00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:43,840
Speaker 4: rather the government extend tax cuts and cut services to

777
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 4: fund those tax cuts, or would you rather them raise

778
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 4: taxes and keep current level of spending so you can

779
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 4: decrease the deficit, And by like a sixty to ten

780
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:54,480
Speaker 4: percent margin very expected, people said, Oh yeah, I just

781
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:56,920
Speaker 4: raise taxes on the wealthy a little bit, don't cut

782
00:43:57,040 --> 00:43:59,719
Speaker 4: services for people like people like when the government is

783
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:03,880
Speaker 4: doing stuff for them. In Republicans, even though like the

784
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:06,400
Speaker 4: young people that I'm in lots of circles with that

785
00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:09,680
Speaker 4: voted for Trump having previously supported Democrats, they just want

786
00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:12,160
Speaker 4: the government to do stuff for them, and they don't

787
00:44:12,160 --> 00:44:15,240
Speaker 4: want it to give tax cuts to super wealthy people.

788
00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:17,879
Speaker 1: I'm shocked. One of the many reasons why I wanted

789
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:22,160
Speaker 1: to have you on is about these young Trump voters

790
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 1: the millennial is it millennial or it's younger than millennial.

791
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 1: I'm gen z technically okay, but these young people who

792
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:37,399
Speaker 1: were Democrats, pretty reliably Democrat or pretty democratic or low

793
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:40,920
Speaker 1: frequency who went to this sort of podcast bros. The

794
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:43,279
Speaker 1: people who heard him on Joe Rogan and were like,

795
00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 1: this guy's great. Those people are having some buyers remorse.

796
00:44:47,920 --> 00:44:51,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's right. So it's important to note this group

797
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:54,919
Speaker 4: of people probably only voted fifty to fifty for Trump

798
00:44:55,000 --> 00:44:57,360
Speaker 4: to begin with. So again, the picture we have in

799
00:44:57,400 --> 00:44:59,919
Speaker 4: our head of this group may have already been miscalibrated

800
00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:01,800
Speaker 4: or formed.

801
00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:04,960
Speaker 1: But Jimedia, a point here is that they would have

802
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:09,800
Speaker 1: been previous elections sixty four day.

803
00:45:10,120 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 4: Right, yeah, yeah, they've definitely become more trumpeting. Just a

804
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:16,600
Speaker 4: note on calibration. Yeah, yeah, So that group of people,

805
00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:20,800
Speaker 4: according to Yugov, actually just young people overall, according to YouGov.

806
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:23,240
Speaker 1: He asked him what age.

807
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:26,879
Speaker 4: Less than thirty four? In Okay, I'm not calling people

808
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:30,800
Speaker 4: who are thirty seven old. That's just Yugov's typification between

809
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:34,800
Speaker 4: twenty one and thirty four. That's that's young teen eighteen

810
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:38,040
Speaker 4: thirty eighteen, sorry, eighteen thirty four. Yeah. So that group

811
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:41,400
Speaker 4: of people, about half of them said they approved of

812
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 4: Trump when his presidency started, and half said they disapproved.

813
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 4: So he was even at this point that group of people,

814
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:50,319
Speaker 4: Trump's underwater by forty points. That's seventy five percent say

815
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:52,920
Speaker 4: they disapprove of it than twenty five percent say they

816
00:45:53,360 --> 00:45:54,120
Speaker 4: approve of him.

817
00:45:54,239 --> 00:45:56,640
Speaker 1: That seems a lot in six months.

818
00:45:57,160 --> 00:45:59,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, that is the biggest decline of any age group,

819
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:03,240
Speaker 4: is the biggest decline of any racial group or income group.

820
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:06,759
Speaker 4: So if you want to characterize them as having buyers remorse, yeah,

821
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:09,600
Speaker 4: I think that's probably what's you know, a little bit

822
00:46:09,640 --> 00:46:13,400
Speaker 4: of what's going on here. And yeah, I think this

823
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:15,000
Speaker 4: goes back to the point I was just saying, like,

824
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:19,640
Speaker 4: this group of people specifically has a kind of an

825
00:46:19,640 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 4: Obama era government in their head, one that's providing services

826
00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:28,640
Speaker 4: that's redistributive, that as progressive tax system to fund services,

827
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:31,480
Speaker 4: and they're not getting that anymore. And the reason they

828
00:46:31,560 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 4: voted for Trump was not because they wanted a regressive

829
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:37,120
Speaker 4: tax system or tax cussed for super wealthy, et cetera,

830
00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:40,040
Speaker 4: just because they just didn't like inflation. So at the

831
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:41,520
Speaker 4: beginning of his term, when he was still saying we're

832
00:46:41,520 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 4: going to bring down prices, and that looked like something

833
00:46:43,160 --> 00:46:46,239
Speaker 4: he might do. Then he was fifty to fifty. When

834
00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:50,239
Speaker 4: he starts increasing taxes by passing tariffs and redistributing wealth

835
00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:52,560
Speaker 4: upwards and cutting services, these people like, O, no, no, no,

836
00:46:52,600 --> 00:46:54,279
Speaker 4: that's not what we signed up for. That makes sense

837
00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:54,480
Speaker 4: to me.

838
00:46:54,760 --> 00:46:59,400
Speaker 1: It's what we kept telling everyone. So it's infuriating, but

839
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:03,360
Speaker 1: it's also interesting. Okay, so tell what other we're I

840
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:05,399
Speaker 1: want you to just sort of what other things are

841
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:08,560
Speaker 1: we missing here in this data? Look, I think what

842
00:47:08,600 --> 00:47:10,560
Speaker 1: else is important to talk about?

843
00:47:11,120 --> 00:47:14,400
Speaker 4: Yeah? So the other thing that I'll mention just I

844
00:47:14,440 --> 00:47:19,040
Speaker 4: guess one theme here is like stuff people and political

845
00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:21,799
Speaker 4: analysts think that is wrong, Like you should focus on

846
00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:25,319
Speaker 4: please coommigration or the economy, not immigration or whatever. The

847
00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:28,440
Speaker 4: other thing that our survey says is wrong. There's an

848
00:47:28,440 --> 00:47:32,920
Speaker 4: idea that Democrat or that the Democratic Party's favorability grating

849
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:34,960
Speaker 4: is low because they're too low. They've gone too far

850
00:47:35,000 --> 00:47:38,279
Speaker 4: to the left. Oh yeah, so so we'd asked about this.

851
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:42,600
Speaker 4: We asked our representative sample of Americans to tell us

852
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:45,160
Speaker 4: do you think the Democratic Party has moved too far left,

853
00:47:45,680 --> 00:47:48,120
Speaker 4: too far right? Or is it fine? Has it not

854
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:50,200
Speaker 4: moved too far at all, and we asked the same

855
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:54,240
Speaker 4: thing about Republicans. The results of this is forty percent

856
00:47:54,280 --> 00:47:57,040
Speaker 4: of people say the Democratic Party has gone too far left.

857
00:47:57,440 --> 00:48:01,480
Speaker 4: That's more than the percent of people who say that

858
00:48:01,600 --> 00:48:04,640
Speaker 4: they're good, which is thirty five percent. But forty two

859
00:48:04,719 --> 00:48:07,080
Speaker 4: percent of people say the Republicans have gone too far right.

860
00:48:07,600 --> 00:48:11,080
Speaker 4: So there's no evidence in our data that the public

861
00:48:11,120 --> 00:48:13,400
Speaker 4: is saying the Democratic Party is too far to the

862
00:48:13,480 --> 00:48:16,960
Speaker 4: left at least. If anything, they're saying Republicans are a

863
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:19,600
Speaker 4: little bit more too far right than the Democrats are

864
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:23,600
Speaker 4: too far left. So yeah, wokeism to the extent that's

865
00:48:24,080 --> 00:48:27,280
Speaker 4: has tanked the Democratic Party brand. That's like a two

866
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 4: ten to twenty twenty four phenomenon that doesn't show up

867
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 4: in the data at all anymore.

868
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:34,680
Speaker 1: Just explain this to me, because even though forty percent

869
00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:38,960
Speaker 1: of all Democrats think that the party is too lefty,

870
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:41,280
Speaker 1: that's normal, or explain.

871
00:48:41,080 --> 00:48:43,760
Speaker 4: I'm not sure it's normal. I don't have compare comparative numbers.

872
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:46,279
Speaker 4: I guess I would rationalize this by saying, let me

873
00:48:46,280 --> 00:48:48,759
Speaker 4: put it this way, forty five percent of voters say

874
00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 4: the Democratic Party either is in the right place or

875
00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:55,720
Speaker 4: has gone too far to the right, and forty percent

876
00:48:55,719 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 4: of people say it has gone too far to the left.

877
00:48:58,040 --> 00:49:01,239
Speaker 4: So on balance, people are saying the average person is

878
00:49:01,239 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 4: saying Democracratic Party is good or needs to move a

879
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:06,759
Speaker 4: little bit to the left. They're saying the same thing

880
00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:09,319
Speaker 4: about the Republicans, but to the right, they're saying either

881
00:49:09,320 --> 00:49:11,719
Speaker 4: it's good, or it needs to you know, or it's

882
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:13,879
Speaker 4: a little bit too far, too far to the left,

883
00:49:14,040 --> 00:49:16,759
Speaker 4: it needs to be a little bit more conservative. So, yeah,

884
00:49:16,800 --> 00:49:20,800
Speaker 4: there's no evidence here that like the Democratic Party brand

885
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:25,319
Speaker 4: is underwater because of biological extremism, right or else. It's

886
00:49:25,360 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 4: the Republican party brand just as bad, basically.

887
00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:32,880
Speaker 1: Right, That's exactly what is important here, is that the

888
00:49:33,080 --> 00:49:38,839
Speaker 1: problem with the Democratic brand it's politics, right, It's it's leadership, right.

889
00:49:38,880 --> 00:49:44,800
Speaker 1: It's the faces, not the ideas that are getting Democrats

890
00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:46,800
Speaker 1: in trouble right now, is that what you're saying?

891
00:49:47,239 --> 00:49:49,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's right. If you ask people to

892
00:49:49,680 --> 00:49:53,160
Speaker 4: rate Democratic Party leaders then the ones in charge, Chuck

893
00:49:53,160 --> 00:49:57,200
Speaker 4: Schumer and hicking Jeffrees are about twenty to thirty points underwater.

894
00:49:57,320 --> 00:50:00,560
Speaker 4: The party brand is thirty five points underwater. The people

895
00:50:00,719 --> 00:50:05,160
Speaker 4: who are making headlines as sort of reformers, Alexandro Cosio Cortez,

896
00:50:05,160 --> 00:50:08,359
Speaker 4: Bernie Sanders, those people people to judge. Those are the

897
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:11,759
Speaker 4: only Democratic Party figures today that are popular and not

898
00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:15,719
Speaker 4: popular with the average person. That includes lots of Republicans

899
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:19,480
Speaker 4: and independents, and notably, those people are not Those are

900
00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:21,160
Speaker 4: not the people in power in the Democratic Party.

901
00:50:21,600 --> 00:50:24,000
Speaker 1: So interesting, Thank you, Elliott.

902
00:50:24,120 --> 00:50:32,240
Speaker 4: Okay, thanks Molly, there a moment perfectly, Jesse Cannon Smiley.

903
00:50:32,280 --> 00:50:36,440
Speaker 2: The Intercept has this disturbing article where we have quotes

904
00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:40,440
Speaker 2: from ICE Deputy Director Madison Shean where they're basically saying

905
00:50:40,480 --> 00:50:44,319
Speaker 2: that they're going to start arresting anybody who's helping to

906
00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:46,919
Speaker 2: protest ICE. It's not looking good.

907
00:50:47,239 --> 00:50:50,239
Speaker 1: Well, I also want to add that these guys are

908
00:50:50,280 --> 00:50:53,319
Speaker 1: such Okay, so they want to make it so you

909
00:50:53,400 --> 00:50:58,239
Speaker 1: can't give people masks. Right, ally's anti ICE movement has

910
00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:02,319
Speaker 1: been wearing masks, and the Trump administration is trying to

911
00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:05,840
Speaker 1: criminalize activism like trying to wear masks.

912
00:51:05,880 --> 00:51:08,600
Speaker 2: Well, we should also say our own mayor also has

913
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:10,880
Speaker 2: been doing things like this too and keep sporting with

914
00:51:10,960 --> 00:51:11,319
Speaker 2: us too.

915
00:51:11,719 --> 00:51:16,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, but here's the thing. ICE wears masks. That's right,

916
00:51:16,440 --> 00:51:21,520
Speaker 1: So on morning, Joe We had Tom Holman on who

917
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:26,839
Speaker 1: was defending I wasn't there for that, but he was

918
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:33,200
Speaker 1: defending ICE's use of masks because he was like, everyone

919
00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:35,839
Speaker 1: so mean to them. Yes, I swear to god. He

920
00:51:35,920 --> 00:51:38,719
Speaker 1: was like, they're so everyone's so mean to them.

921
00:51:38,920 --> 00:51:42,760
Speaker 2: They're just trying to illegally deport people and accidentally taking

922
00:51:42,760 --> 00:51:45,200
Speaker 2: the wrong people out. They're so mean to them.

923
00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:51,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're really, really, really really mean, and they don't

924
00:51:51,560 --> 00:51:53,440
Speaker 1: like it when people are mean to them, and so

925
00:51:53,480 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 1: they wear masks. So now they want to arrest protesters

926
00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:01,960
Speaker 1: for wearing masks. Seems kind of mean.

927
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:03,200
Speaker 2: Seems that way.

928
00:52:04,080 --> 00:52:08,439
Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in

929
00:52:08,760 --> 00:52:14,200
Speaker 1: every Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday to hear the best

930
00:52:14,280 --> 00:52:18,600
Speaker 1: minds and politics make sense of all this chaos. If

931
00:52:18,600 --> 00:52:21,680
Speaker 1: you enjoy this podcast, please send it to a friend

932
00:52:22,120 --> 00:52:25,320
Speaker 1: and keep the conversation going. Thanks for listening.