WEBVTT - White House Nuclear Energy Push Meets Uncertain Market 0:00:00.400 --> 0:00:03.080 This is Tom Rowland's Reese, and you're listening to Switched 0:00:03.120 --> 0:00:05.320 on the podcast brought to you by B and EF. 0:00:05.840 --> 0:00:10.080 After the Fukushima incident of twenty eleven, attitudes towards nuclear 0:00:10.080 --> 0:00:13.280 power as a secure energy source shifted, with some nations 0:00:13.360 --> 0:00:16.720 such as Germany, accelerating the phase out of its nuclear fleet, 0:00:16.840 --> 0:00:21.160 while the US increased regulations Once in nuclear energy heavyweight, 0:00:21.400 --> 0:00:24.000 the US has seen construction of nuclear plants slow to 0:00:24.040 --> 0:00:26.439 a crawl. The country has fallen far behind Russia and 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:29.000 China in terms of its technology and equipment being used 0:00:29.000 --> 0:00:32.000 for nuclear power builds around the world. The Trump administration 0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:34.040 has made no secret of its desire to change this, 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:36.920 and last month issued four executive orders that seek to 0:00:37.000 --> 0:00:40.040 reinvigorate the US's domestic nuclear power fleet. But is this 0:00:40.080 --> 0:00:43.120 policy push enough to stimulate a risk averse private sector 0:00:43.280 --> 0:00:46.120 and what forms of nuclear technology are North American companies 0:00:46.159 --> 0:00:48.160 looking at today? I am joined by B and EF's 0:00:48.240 --> 0:00:51.440 lead nuclear analyst, Kris Kodoonsky, and we discussed findings from 0:00:51.440 --> 0:00:54.400 his note, Trump pushes nuclear, but market pull is uncertain. 0:00:54.720 --> 0:00:56.840 Which B and EF plants can find at BNEF go 0:00:57.160 --> 0:01:00.360 on the Bloomberg terminal or on BNF dot com. All right, 0:01:00.400 --> 0:01:02.200 let's get to talk about the future of US nuclear 0:01:02.280 --> 0:01:09.759 energy with Chris. 0:01:13.120 --> 0:01:14.319 Chris, welcome to the show. 0:01:14.600 --> 0:01:16.800 Thank you, Tom, it's a pleasure to be back. Yeah. 0:01:16.800 --> 0:01:18.280 I was just going to say, it doesn't feel like 0:01:18.319 --> 0:01:20.640 it was that long ago that we had you on 0:01:21.040 --> 0:01:21.800 the podcast. 0:01:22.200 --> 0:01:24.320 So why are we speaking today. 0:01:24.840 --> 0:01:28.000 Well, there's a lot of excitement about nuclear power in 0:01:28.080 --> 0:01:32.959 the media, among governments and larger organizations institutions, and that 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:37.440 has been triggered most recently by the May twenty third 0:01:37.560 --> 0:01:41.319 signing by President Trump of four Executive Orders. And the 0:01:41.360 --> 0:01:44.440 four executive Orders are taking aim at some of the 0:01:44.480 --> 0:01:49.200 fundamental issues and problems that has led to the US 0:01:49.320 --> 0:01:53.200 becoming a laggard in nuclear energy construction around the world. 0:01:53.280 --> 0:01:55.840 And so I'll be very very curious to see what 0:01:56.040 --> 0:01:59.760 transpires and how the executive orders will be able to 0:01:59.800 --> 0:02:04.040 work and coexist with Everetts by DOGE to sort of 0:02:04.080 --> 0:02:08.160 cut the government workforce and create an environment where the 0:02:08.200 --> 0:02:11.880 private sector will rally behind what is left of government 0:02:11.919 --> 0:02:14.520 funding to support this to go ahead and build out 0:02:14.600 --> 0:02:15.840 nuclear power in the country. 0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:18.480 So you recently published a report on this, and the 0:02:18.520 --> 0:02:22.040 title of the report Trump pushes nuclear but market poll 0:02:22.240 --> 0:02:26.240 is uncertain, which kind of tells maybe, I mean gives 0:02:26.400 --> 0:02:28.760 in a nutshell where you stand on this. I think 0:02:28.760 --> 0:02:30.680 it was interesting, and you know, when it comes to Chris, 0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:33.760 I'm not just a fan who has come lately. I'm 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:37.320 familiar with your entire back catalog, so I know that 0:02:37.440 --> 0:02:40.320 in December twenty twenty four you also published a piece 0:02:40.360 --> 0:02:44.120 called US Nuclear Goals in the Cards or just an Illusion, 0:02:44.240 --> 0:02:46.960 which was in reference to some targets put in place 0:02:47.000 --> 0:02:50.120 by the Biden administration. And I also remember that in 0:02:50.200 --> 0:02:53.560 May twenty twenty you published a piece I've got all 0:02:53.560 --> 0:02:57.400 the receipts here called Trump Administration Aims to make Nuclear 0:02:57.440 --> 0:03:00.440 Greats Again, which, unlike those other two titles, doesn't at 0:03:00.480 --> 0:03:03.760 a slight skepticism on your part on the gap between 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:06.280 ambitions and reality. But I'm just going to read from 0:03:06.320 --> 0:03:09.840 the executive's summary, and this is again from May twenty twenty. 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:13.239 The US nuclear industry has ceded global leadership to Russia 0:03:13.280 --> 0:03:16.359 and China, as evidenced by the underwhelming presence of US 0:03:16.440 --> 0:03:19.520 vendors participating in global markets. Be in the f questions 0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:24.200 whether the appropriate strategic elements in place in the nfwg's plan. NFWG, 0:03:24.320 --> 0:03:27.320 by the way, Sorry's Nuclear Fuel Working Group will materialize 0:03:27.360 --> 0:03:29.840 to US re establish the US as a contender without 0:03:29.880 --> 0:03:34.519 bipartisan support and appropriate funding. The nfwg's policy goals represent 0:03:34.639 --> 0:03:39.040 wishful thinking rather than an executable objectives to restore global leadership. 0:03:39.240 --> 0:03:42.440 So again, although it was in the title definitely have 0:03:42.880 --> 0:03:44.840 your and I say this, you're someone who is I 0:03:44.880 --> 0:03:47.000 think it's fair to say pro nuclear. 0:03:47.120 --> 0:03:48.960 I don't think that you are. 0:03:48.480 --> 0:03:51.960 Just saying this because you are not in favor of nuclear, 0:03:52.000 --> 0:03:55.520 but you, I think appreciate the challenges and how far 0:03:55.640 --> 0:03:58.880 behind the US is. So I suppose over the years 0:03:58.880 --> 0:04:02.120 we've seen that sort of skepticism on your part. The 0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:04.120 thing that's interesting though, is now when we look at 0:04:04.120 --> 0:04:07.240 this sort of the pattern is Trump administration Mark one 0:04:07.640 --> 0:04:10.720 was pro nuclear. The Biden administration for the most part 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:13.440 was kind of most of its time, I would say, 0:04:13.560 --> 0:04:16.680 slightly neutral. It had those tax credits in the IRA 0:04:17.040 --> 0:04:21.760 to support nuclear if the economics weren't working out. But 0:04:21.839 --> 0:04:25.000 then right at the end there was this ambitious set 0:04:25.000 --> 0:04:27.719 of goals set out for nuclear and then of Trump 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:29.920 has come back in and he has come out as 0:04:29.920 --> 0:04:32.880 being very pro nuclear with these executive orders. So we're 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:36.080 starting to see actually a little bit of bipartisanship emerging 0:04:36.080 --> 0:04:39.159 around nuclear. And yet you're still a bit skeptical maybe 0:04:39.279 --> 0:04:42.359 about how challenging this is and whether that challenge is 0:04:42.360 --> 0:04:43.120 fully appreciated. 0:04:43.360 --> 0:04:43.920 Is that fair? 0:04:44.279 --> 0:04:46.600 I am I being fair to your read on this 0:04:46.640 --> 0:04:47.200 whole space. 0:04:48.040 --> 0:04:51.520 I think it's absolutely correct, and maybe an anecdote can 0:04:51.600 --> 0:04:56.160 illustrate the reasons for my skepticism. Back in twenty ten 0:04:56.680 --> 0:04:59.800 or twenty eleven, before the fu Kushimi event, we had 0:04:59.800 --> 0:05:03.240 a conversation with an SMR developer in the US and 0:05:03.360 --> 0:05:06.920 with the Russians, and the conversation in twenty ten went 0:05:07.279 --> 0:05:10.640 like this. The Russians said, we're going to have a 0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:14.720 SMR operating north the Arctic Circle by twenty twenty, and 0:05:14.880 --> 0:05:18.560 the US SMR developer said, well, we will have a 0:05:18.600 --> 0:05:23.040 SMR operating in the US by twenty twenty. Come twenty twenty, 0:05:23.080 --> 0:05:25.880 what has happened is that the Russians are operating in 0:05:26.080 --> 0:05:29.640 SMR north of the Arctic Circle in a floating nuclear 0:05:29.640 --> 0:05:33.320 power plant, a tremendous innovation that has implications for global 0:05:33.360 --> 0:05:38.280 markets in South Asia and in Pacific region, and the 0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:42.280 US development looks like, well, we might be likely if 0:05:42.320 --> 0:05:45.120 we have something by twenty thirty. So I'm trying to 0:05:45.120 --> 0:05:48.159 look and say, well, what has happened to the US 0:05:48.279 --> 0:05:51.000 industry why we can't deliver where you look at the 0:05:51.080 --> 0:05:54.600 Russians and they are very very aggressive in delivering SMRs 0:05:54.640 --> 0:05:58.640 in remote places, and they're leading global construction, and so 0:05:58.880 --> 0:06:01.480 I sort of am and wondering what it is that 0:06:01.839 --> 0:06:05.800 has handicapped the US industry so we can't build, And 0:06:06.160 --> 0:06:08.719 there are a whole slew of reasons for doing so. 0:06:08.960 --> 0:06:11.920 But that's why I remain skeptical, because what's really really 0:06:11.960 --> 0:06:15.919 important is not so much policy push but market pull. 0:06:16.080 --> 0:06:18.920 Then I use the analogy of pushing a string as 0:06:18.920 --> 0:06:21.520 opposed to pulling a string, And so if we had 0:06:21.560 --> 0:06:24.240 a lot of market pull, if you until the executives 0:06:24.240 --> 0:06:26.839 stood up, raises hands says, I want a nuclear reactor 0:06:26.960 --> 0:06:29.520 that's a very very strong single and we're starting to 0:06:29.560 --> 0:06:33.040 see that from the hyperscalers because they are facing tremendous 0:06:33.080 --> 0:06:36.080 demands for electricity to power their data centers. 0:06:36.200 --> 0:06:38.680 I want us to explore this idea of market pull, 0:06:38.960 --> 0:06:40.440 and we'll get to it in de course. And also 0:06:40.440 --> 0:06:42.880 I think we just a moment, will we'll dive into 0:06:42.960 --> 0:06:46.880 some of the reasons or your assessment of the reasons 0:06:46.920 --> 0:06:50.080 why the US has sort of fallen behind in this race. 0:06:50.160 --> 0:06:52.120 One thing I meant to mention, for those of you 0:06:52.160 --> 0:06:54.560 who are not familiar with the term SMO that sounds 0:06:54.600 --> 0:06:59.360 for small modular reactor. It's a next generation nuclear reactor, 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:02.479 and as the names just, it's significantly smaller than a 0:07:02.520 --> 0:07:06.039 conventional nuclear actor and therefore is less restricted by where 0:07:06.040 --> 0:07:08.960 it can be deployed. Before we dive into the reasons 0:07:09.360 --> 0:07:13.400 why we think that nuclear progress in the US has 0:07:13.480 --> 0:07:16.560 fallen so far behind, I think that you actually, and 0:07:16.600 --> 0:07:18.520 you laid it out really well in the note you 0:07:18.560 --> 0:07:23.480 recently published the number of reactors under construction worldwide by 0:07:23.560 --> 0:07:26.000 the country, not of where they're being constructed, but by 0:07:26.000 --> 0:07:29.440 where the technology comes from. It paints a very stark picture. 0:07:29.480 --> 0:07:32.480 Can you just really illustrate your point talk us through 0:07:32.480 --> 0:07:33.240 that very quickly. 0:07:33.520 --> 0:07:37.440 So, the country in which the greatest construction effort is 0:07:37.480 --> 0:07:40.840 going on as China, something like twenty eight twenty nine reactors. 0:07:41.160 --> 0:07:44.360 Of those twenty eight twenty nine reactors for those reactors 0:07:44.400 --> 0:07:47.240 are being built by the Russians. Russia is only building 0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:50.200 four reactors in its own country, but it's also building 0:07:50.280 --> 0:07:54.880 four reactors in Turkey, four reactors in Egypt, two reactors 0:07:54.960 --> 0:07:58.840 in Bangladesh, and four reactors in India. So that brings 0:07:58.920 --> 0:08:02.320 Russia to a total amount of twenty six reactors under 0:08:02.360 --> 0:08:06.520 construction that are Russian designs, and if you compare that 0:08:06.560 --> 0:08:10.200 to the US, there are no nuclear reactors under construction 0:08:10.480 --> 0:08:13.320 of US design. Now there's an issue here is that 0:08:13.520 --> 0:08:18.440 China is building several CAP one thousands. CAP one thousands 0:08:18.480 --> 0:08:21.480 are the Chinese version of the AP one thousand that 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:25.040 is a Westinghouse or US design. Westinghouse will argue that 0:08:25.160 --> 0:08:27.280 is they're part of their design, but we look at 0:08:27.560 --> 0:08:31.280 the components are eighty percent manufactured in China. There are 0:08:31.320 --> 0:08:34.680 certain other modifications and changes that they've done, so we 0:08:34.840 --> 0:08:39.319 characterize that perhaps incorrectly, but I think realistically as as 0:08:39.360 --> 0:08:42.439 a reactor of Chinese design as opposed to US design, 0:08:42.520 --> 0:08:43.959 that will be a debatable point. 0:08:44.520 --> 0:08:48.120 It's a debatable point, but you know, whatever the actual answer, 0:08:48.200 --> 0:08:50.880 and I think there's not a right or wrong answer. 0:08:51.000 --> 0:08:53.320 You know, the picture that emerges is very clear. China 0:08:53.440 --> 0:08:56.479 is the biggest market for nuclear power and a significant 0:08:56.480 --> 0:08:59.920 proportion of that is being served by Chinese supply chain, 0:09:00.240 --> 0:09:03.400 Chinese developers, and so this puts, like with so many 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:05.560 other markets, China in a good position in the future 0:09:05.600 --> 0:09:08.680 to be an exporter of that expertise and know how. 0:09:08.920 --> 0:09:13.120 Russia is currently the world's leading exporter of that expertise 0:09:13.160 --> 0:09:17.000 and know how. And the US neither has a thriving 0:09:17.040 --> 0:09:19.640 domestic market like China which would be a platform to 0:09:19.679 --> 0:09:23.120 become an exporter, and it is certainly not an exporter today. 0:09:23.200 --> 0:09:25.880 So this is a pretty clear picture and it's hard 0:09:25.920 --> 0:09:28.240 to argue with it. So before we talk about how 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:30.640 these executive orders might try and address some of this, 0:09:30.679 --> 0:09:33.160 before we talk about the demand pool, what in your 0:09:33.280 --> 0:09:35.439 view has gone wrong here, Like if we go back 0:09:35.440 --> 0:09:38.200 to when you were having that conversation in twenty ten, 0:09:38.240 --> 0:09:41.800 where there was ambitions around small modular reactors, for example, 0:09:42.080 --> 0:09:44.880 at that point in time, maybe already the US was 0:09:44.920 --> 0:09:47.160 being to lag, but at least people to be making 0:09:47.200 --> 0:09:49.400 the claims that have a smaller modul reactor. By twenty twenty, 0:09:49.440 --> 0:09:51.600 there must have been stakeholders in the US who felt 0:09:51.600 --> 0:09:54.120 the US was in the race, you know, And since 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:56.280 then the US are so comprehensively lost. 0:09:56.559 --> 0:09:57.640 So what has gone wrong? 0:09:57.720 --> 0:10:01.120 Well, let me clarify a few things. I'm there the nuances. 0:10:01.240 --> 0:10:03.840 Nuance is a very good word to use with regards 0:10:03.840 --> 0:10:06.360 to the discussion of the nuclear power industry as far 0:10:06.400 --> 0:10:10.079 as development of advanced reactors, by far in the way, 0:10:10.200 --> 0:10:12.680 the US is in first place. We have a whole 0:10:12.720 --> 0:10:16.280 slew of advanced reactive technologies that are being developed by 0:10:16.320 --> 0:10:19.480 a wide variety of companies. However, we haven't gotten to 0:10:19.520 --> 0:10:22.600 the point where we are licensing them or building them, 0:10:22.760 --> 0:10:25.880 and that are two necessary steps. And licensing is a 0:10:26.000 --> 0:10:29.559 very challenging process to undergo in the US, and it's 0:10:29.640 --> 0:10:32.839 one of the executive orders that Trump signed on May 0:10:32.920 --> 0:10:36.560 twenty third was to address NRC reform and but doing 0:10:36.600 --> 0:10:39.480 so it will help speed up the process and reduce 0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:44.000 the risk of these nuclear technologies. We're all new innovative technologies, 0:10:44.160 --> 0:10:47.360 most of them coming across the finish line getting licensed 0:10:47.400 --> 0:10:49.679 and then get it constructed and built. So I don't 0:10:49.679 --> 0:10:52.480 want to paint a picture that there's no nuclear leadership 0:10:52.520 --> 0:10:55.680 in the US. There's nuclear leadership as far as developing 0:10:55.760 --> 0:10:59.840 new technologies, but we are certainly laggards in actually building 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:03.079 UCAR power plants. We have no nuclear reactors under construction 0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:05.719 in North America, never mind in the US all lot. 0:11:06.040 --> 0:11:08.480 So I suppose maybe a more nuanced picture that we 0:11:08.520 --> 0:11:11.960 could paint is, when it comes to what is happening 0:11:12.120 --> 0:11:15.320 right now, the US has fallen behind in terms of 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:18.000 the deployment of nuclear technologies, and a lot of what 0:11:18.040 --> 0:11:20.240 we've spoken about in terms of those figures refers to 0:11:20.320 --> 0:11:23.520 conventional nuclear technologies where Russia is the global exporter of 0:11:23.640 --> 0:11:27.559 China is the biggest market, and so the US's hopes 0:11:27.920 --> 0:11:32.880 of establishing leadership globally in this space do not hinge 0:11:33.000 --> 0:11:35.600 on I guess what you'd call say, catching up in 0:11:35.679 --> 0:11:39.440 that area. It is making sure that this other great 0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:43.160 hope of these next generation of technologies is that the 0:11:43.240 --> 0:11:46.800 US doesn't get in its own way of winning that race, 0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:48.400 which it is well positioned to win. 0:11:48.640 --> 0:11:49.839 Is that maybe the. 0:11:49.840 --> 0:11:52.360 Nuanced take of what the picture currently looks like, and 0:11:52.440 --> 0:11:55.160 maybe what these executive orders are aiming to address is, 0:11:55.360 --> 0:11:59.320 let's ensure that the US can capitalize on this sort 0:11:59.320 --> 0:12:02.200 of new generation of technologies that it has led the 0:12:02.200 --> 0:12:02.960 way in developing. 0:12:04.240 --> 0:12:08.760 A fundamental first step is building advanced reactors in the US, 0:12:08.840 --> 0:12:12.240 whether or not on military basis, on federal land or 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:15.760 by utilities or with hyperscalar demand pull to go ahead 0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:17.920 and do that. That's the first step. Once we start 0:12:17.960 --> 0:12:21.360 building nuclear reactors in the US, we can expect interest 0:12:21.400 --> 0:12:25.280 from other markets overseas to follow, and that makes a 0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:27.600 lot of sense. There are a couple of proposals right 0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:30.680 now to build reactors in Eastern Europe that have not 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:33.000 been built in the US, and to me, that strikes 0:12:33.040 --> 0:12:36.240 me as a very risky proposition for the new host 0:12:36.360 --> 0:12:39.160 country to consider a technology that has yet to be 0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:41.840 built in the US. And I think that. 0:12:41.720 --> 0:12:43.720 And these are American technologies. 0:12:43.200 --> 0:12:46.440 American technologies or so, and we're starting to see some progress. 0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:51.680 The most exciting development is the General Electric Kitachi nuclear 0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:55.600 power plant that's going to be built in Ontario, Canada 0:12:55.920 --> 0:12:59.199 by Ontario Power Generation. They're going to be four units. 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:03.920 Four days before the executive orders were signed by President Trump, 0:13:04.000 --> 0:13:08.120 the Tennessee Value Authority, with large government utility has also 0:13:08.200 --> 0:13:11.360 decided to submit a construction permit for several of the 0:13:11.440 --> 0:13:14.320 same reactors. And that's a very very important key is 0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:18.439 that the key too mass deployment of these nuclear reactors 0:13:18.600 --> 0:13:22.000 is having a significant project pipeline. It's very hard for 0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:25.160 a developer or a vendor of a nuclear power plan 0:13:25.280 --> 0:13:27.240 to say, give me a couple of billion dollars and 0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:30.240 I'll build your reactor. It's a much easier line, and 0:13:30.320 --> 0:13:33.040 the financial community is much more receptive. It says, give 0:13:33.040 --> 0:13:35.679 me a couple of billion dollars to build a factory 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:39.600 with which I can manufacture ten to twenty reactors, and 0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:42.840 here's the project pipeline I have. So General Electric Hitachi, 0:13:43.000 --> 0:13:47.880 for example, has four projects now underway, at least in Canada, 0:13:48.040 --> 0:13:52.120 more in Alberta and Saskatchewan. For in the US at 0:13:52.160 --> 0:13:56.520 the Tennessee Value Authority, some perhaps in Estonia too. The 0:13:56.600 --> 0:14:00.319 General Electric Attachi maybe was a contender for the Great 0:14:00.320 --> 0:14:03.320 British Nuclear Program, although Rolls Royce has seemed to have 0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:07.360 succeeded in taking being nominated first. But that doesn't preclude 0:14:07.440 --> 0:14:10.520 General Electric Katachi for participating in that market. And if 0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:13.400 I was the UK policy makers, I've sort of divide 0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:17.280 allocate eighty twenty percent, give eighty percent to the SMR 0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:20.680 of Rolls Royce Company and twenty percent to General Electric 0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:23.800 Tiktaci to create some tension in the marketplace so that 0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:27.280 there'll be some cost considerations and that if Rolls Royce 0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:31.200 is too expensive, we have another operation. And finally, in Poland, 0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:33.840 they have talked about building twenty four of these general 0:14:33.840 --> 0:14:37.400 electric katachis. That's a pretty long project pipeline, and they 0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:41.360 can make the long term investment necessary to get from 0:14:41.400 --> 0:14:43.400 a first of a kind cost to end of a 0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:46.360 kind cost as quickly as possible. That's the secret to 0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:49.040 getting a widespread deployment of nuclear power. 0:14:49.480 --> 0:14:50.640 So, I mean, that's really interesting. 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:55.280 So Poland is potentially a key market for next generation 0:14:55.360 --> 0:14:58.560 technologies because they've they've put in place dot ambition, not 0:14:58.600 --> 0:15:02.160 just in terms of a gig target, but specifically actual 0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:05.480 projects under development for these technologies. 0:15:05.880 --> 0:15:10.000 My cousins of Poland present a very complicated picture. They've 0:15:10.160 --> 0:15:13.080 articulated that they have no nuclear power. And Poland is 0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:16.160 the only country that built nuclear power plants and decommissioned 0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:18.680 them without ever operating them in the wake of the 0:15:18.760 --> 0:15:22.120 Chernobyl disaster. Now Poland has said we need six to 0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:26.120 nine gigawatts of nuclear power to reduce our carbon footprint 0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:29.840 because it's largely generating electricity through coal plants. That's very 0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:33.600 very ambitious. There's three potential pathways that have surfaced right 0:15:33.600 --> 0:15:36.320 now for them to do that. One, they've signed contracts 0:15:36.360 --> 0:15:40.320 with the Westinghouse eight p one thousand for three reactors 0:15:40.360 --> 0:15:42.840 or went to three reactors at a very very high cost. 0:15:42.880 --> 0:15:45.720 They've also looked at the General Electric Katachi and looked 0:15:45.760 --> 0:15:48.880 to build They've announced twenty four projects and finally the 0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:51.280 Koreans wanted to get into the act as well, and 0:15:51.320 --> 0:15:55.440 they're making proposals for a smaller one gigawatt version of 0:15:55.480 --> 0:15:58.480 their reactor at another site. So you have three potential 0:15:58.640 --> 0:16:03.480 solutions to Poland's nuclear ambitions. Perhaps two or three will 0:16:03.480 --> 0:16:06.840 go through. But it's important to recognize that for Poland, 0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:10.560 building large reactors that are manufactured in the US or 0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:13.920 Korea does not necessarily solve all of their social and 0:16:13.960 --> 0:16:17.320 political problems. You have a large percentage of the population 0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:20.640 who is reliant on coal and a coal industry that 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:26.200 you're introducing technologies to reduce their participation in the Polish economy. 0:16:26.320 --> 0:16:29.200 So the idea for Poland to sort of develop a 0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:32.840 technology that they can build locally and create a knowledge 0:16:32.920 --> 0:16:36.280 industry and industry where there is a lot of participation 0:16:36.360 --> 0:16:40.280 from society to support the developing commercialation of lear power 0:16:40.440 --> 0:16:43.120 is very very important. And if they can build a 0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:46.720 lot of the components in Poland for the long term perspective, 0:16:46.760 --> 0:16:47.960 that would be much healthier. 0:16:49.160 --> 0:16:53.440 So with thinking about US technologies, this is maybe partly 0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:56.720 the reason, one of the reasons why the plan is 0:16:56.720 --> 0:17:00.840 so much more robust if it'll relies on the US 0:17:01.040 --> 0:17:03.560 market first. So let's bring it back to the US. 0:17:03.720 --> 0:17:05.280 You know, we're going to get to these executive orders 0:17:05.320 --> 0:17:07.520 in a moment, so we painted this picture. US is 0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:11.440 very well poised in terms of next generation technologies. Maybe, 0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:13.680 and I say this because I read a lot of 0:17:13.320 --> 0:17:17.160 your research. They're not going to be commercial as soon 0:17:17.280 --> 0:17:20.040 as some might hope, but they are still you know, 0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:22.919 one day, these next generation nuclear technology is going to 0:17:22.920 --> 0:17:25.000 be very relevant, and the US is in the lead 0:17:25.080 --> 0:17:27.919 on those, but has fallen behind when it comes to 0:17:27.960 --> 0:17:31.320 conventional nuclear technology. And so this is the narrative I'm 0:17:31.320 --> 0:17:34.080 going with is that, you know, maybe these executive orders 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:37.680 will help ensure the success of these new technologies by 0:17:37.720 --> 0:17:40.720 removing roadblocks. And so I think it is still important 0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:44.720 to understand why the US fell behind in conventional nuclear 0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:48.080 technology because I'm presuming that some of the challenges faced 0:17:48.160 --> 0:17:51.879 there could impact the next generation of nuclear technologies and 0:17:51.920 --> 0:17:54.879 therefore why some of these challenges need to be addressed 0:17:54.920 --> 0:17:57.720 by these executive orders. So why has the US fallen 0:17:57.760 --> 0:17:59.919 behind in conventional nuclear technology if you. 0:18:00.080 --> 0:18:03.800 Look over the last fifteen years. The Fukushima event in 0:18:03.880 --> 0:18:07.840 twenty eleven in March of twenty eleven cast a poll 0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:11.600 over the global nuclear power industries and infected countries in 0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:17.520 different ways. Japan ended up reducing their fleet significantly, Germany 0:18:17.680 --> 0:18:20.199 closed their entire fleet and closed them I get the 0:18:20.320 --> 0:18:22.560 end of twenty twenty three or so, and in the 0:18:22.720 --> 0:18:26.520 US we closed thirteen reactors for a variety of different purposes. 0:18:26.560 --> 0:18:30.080 So you had this poll hanging over the industry globally. 0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:35.280 In some countries were China and Russia paused but realized 0:18:35.320 --> 0:18:37.959 that nuclear has a very big role to play in 0:18:38.040 --> 0:18:41.640 their societies, and so they went forward and recovered more quickly. 0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:44.639 In the US, we have a preference for renewables, and 0:18:44.680 --> 0:18:48.560 we had some support for renewables, and so that has 0:18:48.800 --> 0:18:52.040 been a priority in many many ways. And we also 0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:55.680 had very cheap natural gas, and we also have very 0:18:55.720 --> 0:18:58.919 high labor costs that made the prospect of building and 0:18:58.960 --> 0:19:02.479 operating large new your power plants more problematic than it 0:19:02.600 --> 0:19:04.879 was in other parts of the country. Remember this, Our 0:19:04.920 --> 0:19:08.040 analysis suggests that to build a nuclear power plant in China, 0:19:08.160 --> 0:19:11.000 they can do it for approximately one fifth cost that 0:19:11.040 --> 0:19:13.720 it costs us to build the last two ap one 0:19:13.760 --> 0:19:17.240 thousands in Georgia. That's a huge delta. So one can understand, well, 0:19:17.280 --> 0:19:20.040 I can build reactors for one fifth of costs in China, 0:19:20.160 --> 0:19:23.120 continued doing so, and so in this country where where 0:19:23.240 --> 0:19:26.440 we have this high cost label attached to the nuclear 0:19:26.440 --> 0:19:28.840 power and I don't think we'll go forward unless we 0:19:28.880 --> 0:19:32.040 can somehow address that. And some of the executive orders 0:19:32.119 --> 0:19:36.040 that Trump has signed may address some of those issues. 0:19:36.200 --> 0:19:38.480 Well, let's let's get onto the main event. Then. 0:19:38.680 --> 0:19:40.920 I think we've done a lot of contextualizing so far. 0:19:41.080 --> 0:19:43.479 But we came here to talk about these executive orders. 0:19:43.720 --> 0:19:47.400 So talk us through these executive orders and what they're 0:19:47.640 --> 0:19:51.160 intended to accomplish, and you know your view on whether 0:19:51.160 --> 0:19:52.639 they can accomplish those things. 0:19:53.440 --> 0:19:58.159 We sign four nuclear executive orders and their aim is 0:19:58.200 --> 0:20:01.959 to revitalize the nuclear energy industry. And some of the 0:20:02.000 --> 0:20:06.040 issues that we have or the arguments that the Nuclear 0:20:06.160 --> 0:20:09.560 Regulatory Commission, which is the gold standard of regulation of 0:20:09.640 --> 0:20:13.119 nuclear power, has been too constraining to the society, and 0:20:13.200 --> 0:20:15.800 so we're talking about perhaps let's think of a way 0:20:15.920 --> 0:20:19.520 to make the process less expensive, less daunting to the 0:20:19.600 --> 0:20:22.080 companies that are trying to run down that path and 0:20:22.359 --> 0:20:25.639 accomplish that in say twenty four months, as opposed to 0:20:25.760 --> 0:20:29.480 forty four months that has taken the less licensed application 0:20:29.640 --> 0:20:33.000 to get approved. So that's a very very important thing. 0:20:33.240 --> 0:20:38.000 And we're also talking about leveraging US Department of Energy 0:20:38.040 --> 0:20:42.439 research laboratories to help speed speed that forward. And that 0:20:42.600 --> 0:20:44.720 is something that we could also have. You have a 0:20:44.760 --> 0:20:49.960 lot of resources available to sponsor and spur research and development. 0:20:50.040 --> 0:20:53.000 We'll try to adjuss that. And we want to reinvigorate 0:20:53.040 --> 0:20:56.320 the nuclear industrial base, and so Trump has said, let's 0:20:56.359 --> 0:20:59.639 try to have ten new reactors under construction by twenty 0:20:59.680 --> 0:21:02.399 third and he has set a target for four hundred 0:21:02.440 --> 0:21:06.200 giga wats of capacity, adding an additional three hundred capacity 0:21:06.200 --> 0:21:09.000 to the existing fleet by twenty to fifty. Those are 0:21:09.119 --> 0:21:13.640 very very ambition plans, more ambitious than the preceding plan. 0:21:13.880 --> 0:21:17.840 It's also important that we try to develop and supply 0:21:18.000 --> 0:21:21.840 some of these nuclear power plants to support our military 0:21:22.600 --> 0:21:28.200 basis and also to support the anticipated demand from hyperscalers 0:21:28.240 --> 0:21:31.000 to power the data centers, which is in many ways 0:21:31.000 --> 0:21:34.480 a national security issue. We've seen some progress already. There 0:21:34.520 --> 0:21:37.560 was a discussion about Oklahm, one of the companies that 0:21:37.760 --> 0:21:41.560 is developing an innovative advanced react to technology, was recently 0:21:41.680 --> 0:21:46.040 given the go ahead to move forward for supplying electricity 0:21:46.280 --> 0:21:49.800 very nuclear their five banguwatt reactor to a site Alsaid 0:21:49.840 --> 0:21:52.440