1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:03,080 Speaker 1: This is Tom Rowland's Reese, and you're listening to Switched 2 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: on the podcast brought to you by B and EF. 3 00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: After the Fukushima incident of twenty eleven, attitudes towards nuclear 4 00:00:10,080 --> 00:00:13,280 Speaker 1: power as a secure energy source shifted, with some nations 5 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:16,720 Speaker 1: such as Germany, accelerating the phase out of its nuclear fleet, 6 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 1: while the US increased regulations Once in nuclear energy heavyweight, 7 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 1: the US has seen construction of nuclear plants slow to 8 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:26,439 Speaker 1: a crawl. The country has fallen far behind Russia and 9 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 1: China in terms of its technology and equipment being used 10 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 1: for nuclear power builds around the world. The Trump administration 11 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 1: has made no secret of its desire to change this, 12 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:36,920 Speaker 1: and last month issued four executive orders that seek to 13 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 1: reinvigorate the US's domestic nuclear power fleet. But is this 14 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:43,120 Speaker 1: policy push enough to stimulate a risk averse private sector 15 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 1: and what forms of nuclear technology are North American companies 16 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:48,160 Speaker 1: looking at today? I am joined by B and EF's 17 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:51,440 Speaker 1: lead nuclear analyst, Kris Kodoonsky, and we discussed findings from 18 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 1: his note, Trump pushes nuclear, but market pull is uncertain. 19 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 1: Which B and EF plants can find at BNEF go 20 00:00:57,160 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg terminal or on BNF dot com. All right, 21 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:02,200 Speaker 1: let's get to talk about the future of US nuclear 22 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:09,759 Speaker 1: energy with Chris. 23 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:14,319 Speaker 2: Chris, welcome to the show. 24 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 3: Thank you, Tom, it's a pleasure to be back. Yeah. 25 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:18,280 Speaker 1: I was just going to say, it doesn't feel like 26 00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 1: it was that long ago that we had you on 27 00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 1: the podcast. 28 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:24,320 Speaker 2: So why are we speaking today. 29 00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 3: Well, there's a lot of excitement about nuclear power in 30 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:32,959 Speaker 3: the media, among governments and larger organizations institutions, and that 31 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 3: has been triggered most recently by the May twenty third 32 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:41,319 Speaker 3: signing by President Trump of four Executive Orders. And the 33 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:44,440 Speaker 3: four executive Orders are taking aim at some of the 34 00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 3: fundamental issues and problems that has led to the US 35 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 3: becoming a laggard in nuclear energy construction around the world. 36 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 3: And so I'll be very very curious to see what 37 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 3: transpires and how the executive orders will be able to 38 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 3: work and coexist with Everetts by DOGE to sort of 39 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 3: cut the government workforce and create an environment where the 40 00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 3: private sector will rally behind what is left of government 41 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,520 Speaker 3: funding to support this to go ahead and build out 42 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 3: nuclear power in the country. 43 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 1: So you recently published a report on this, and the 44 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 1: title of the report Trump pushes nuclear but market poll 45 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 1: is uncertain, which kind of tells maybe, I mean gives 46 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 1: in a nutshell where you stand on this. I think 47 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:30,680 Speaker 1: it was interesting, and you know, when it comes to Chris, 48 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 1: I'm not just a fan who has come lately. I'm 49 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 1: familiar with your entire back catalog, so I know that 50 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 1: in December twenty twenty four you also published a piece 51 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 1: called US Nuclear Goals in the Cards or just an Illusion, 52 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:46,960 Speaker 1: which was in reference to some targets put in place 53 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 1: by the Biden administration. And I also remember that in 54 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 1: May twenty twenty you published a piece I've got all 55 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:57,400 Speaker 1: the receipts here called Trump Administration Aims to make Nuclear 56 00:02:57,440 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 1: Greats Again, which, unlike those other two titles, doesn't at 57 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:03,760 Speaker 1: a slight skepticism on your part on the gap between 58 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: ambitions and reality. But I'm just going to read from 59 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:09,840 Speaker 1: the executive's summary, and this is again from May twenty twenty. 60 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:13,239 Speaker 1: The US nuclear industry has ceded global leadership to Russia 61 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:16,359 Speaker 1: and China, as evidenced by the underwhelming presence of US 62 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:19,520 Speaker 1: vendors participating in global markets. Be in the f questions 63 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 1: whether the appropriate strategic elements in place in the nfwg's plan. NFWG, 64 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 1: by the way, Sorry's Nuclear Fuel Working Group will materialize 65 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: to US re establish the US as a contender without 66 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:34,519 Speaker 1: bipartisan support and appropriate funding. The nfwg's policy goals represent 67 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 1: wishful thinking rather than an executable objectives to restore global leadership. 68 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 1: So again, although it was in the title definitely have 69 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 1: your and I say this, you're someone who is I 70 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:47,000 Speaker 1: think it's fair to say pro nuclear. 71 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:48,960 Speaker 2: I don't think that you are. 72 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 1: Just saying this because you are not in favor of nuclear, 73 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 1: but you, I think appreciate the challenges and how far 74 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 1: behind the US is. So I suppose over the years 75 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:02,120 Speaker 1: we've seen that sort of skepticism on your part. The 76 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 1: thing that's interesting though, is now when we look at 77 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 1: this sort of the pattern is Trump administration Mark one 78 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 1: was pro nuclear. The Biden administration for the most part 79 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 1: was kind of most of its time, I would say, 80 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 1: slightly neutral. It had those tax credits in the IRA 81 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 1: to support nuclear if the economics weren't working out. But 82 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 1: then right at the end there was this ambitious set 83 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 1: of goals set out for nuclear and then of Trump 84 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:29,920 Speaker 1: has come back in and he has come out as 85 00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 1: being very pro nuclear with these executive orders. So we're 86 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 1: starting to see actually a little bit of bipartisanship emerging 87 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:39,159 Speaker 1: around nuclear. And yet you're still a bit skeptical maybe 88 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:42,359 Speaker 1: about how challenging this is and whether that challenge is 89 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 1: fully appreciated. 90 00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:43,920 Speaker 2: Is that fair? 91 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:46,600 Speaker 1: I am I being fair to your read on this 92 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:47,200 Speaker 1: whole space. 93 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 3: I think it's absolutely correct, and maybe an anecdote can 94 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 3: illustrate the reasons for my skepticism. Back in twenty ten 95 00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:59,800 Speaker 3: or twenty eleven, before the fu Kushimi event, we had 96 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:03,240 Speaker 3: a conversation with an SMR developer in the US and 97 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:06,920 Speaker 3: with the Russians, and the conversation in twenty ten went 98 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 3: like this. The Russians said, we're going to have a 99 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:14,720 Speaker 3: SMR operating north the Arctic Circle by twenty twenty, and 100 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 3: the US SMR developer said, well, we will have a 101 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 3: SMR operating in the US by twenty twenty. Come twenty twenty, 102 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 3: what has happened is that the Russians are operating in 103 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 3: SMR north of the Arctic Circle in a floating nuclear 104 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:33,320 Speaker 3: power plant, a tremendous innovation that has implications for global 105 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:38,280 Speaker 3: markets in South Asia and in Pacific region, and the 106 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:42,280 Speaker 3: US development looks like, well, we might be likely if 107 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 3: we have something by twenty thirty. So I'm trying to 108 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:48,159 Speaker 3: look and say, well, what has happened to the US 109 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 3: industry why we can't deliver where you look at the 110 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:54,600 Speaker 3: Russians and they are very very aggressive in delivering SMRs 111 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 3: in remote places, and they're leading global construction, and so 112 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:01,480 Speaker 3: I sort of am and wondering what it is that 113 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 3: has handicapped the US industry so we can't build, And 114 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:08,719 Speaker 3: there are a whole slew of reasons for doing so. 115 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:11,920 Speaker 3: But that's why I remain skeptical, because what's really really 116 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:15,919 Speaker 3: important is not so much policy push but market pull. 117 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:18,920 Speaker 3: Then I use the analogy of pushing a string as 118 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 3: opposed to pulling a string, And so if we had 119 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 3: a lot of market pull, if you until the executives 120 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:26,839 Speaker 3: stood up, raises hands says, I want a nuclear reactor 121 00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 3: that's a very very strong single and we're starting to 122 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:33,040 Speaker 3: see that from the hyperscalers because they are facing tremendous 123 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 3: demands for electricity to power their data centers. 124 00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 1: I want us to explore this idea of market pull, 125 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 1: and we'll get to it in de course. And also 126 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:42,880 Speaker 1: I think we just a moment, will we'll dive into 127 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 1: some of the reasons or your assessment of the reasons 128 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 1: why the US has sort of fallen behind in this race. 129 00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 1: One thing I meant to mention, for those of you 130 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 1: who are not familiar with the term SMO that sounds 131 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:59,360 Speaker 1: for small modular reactor. It's a next generation nuclear reactor, 132 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:02,479 Speaker 1: and as the names just, it's significantly smaller than a 133 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:06,039 Speaker 1: conventional nuclear actor and therefore is less restricted by where 134 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 1: it can be deployed. Before we dive into the reasons 135 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 1: why we think that nuclear progress in the US has 136 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 1: fallen so far behind, I think that you actually, and 137 00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:18,520 Speaker 1: you laid it out really well in the note you 138 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 1: recently published the number of reactors under construction worldwide by 139 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 1: the country, not of where they're being constructed, but by 140 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 1: where the technology comes from. It paints a very stark picture. 141 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 1: Can you just really illustrate your point talk us through 142 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:33,240 Speaker 1: that very quickly. 143 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:37,440 Speaker 3: So, the country in which the greatest construction effort is 144 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:40,840 Speaker 3: going on as China, something like twenty eight twenty nine reactors. 145 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:44,360 Speaker 3: Of those twenty eight twenty nine reactors for those reactors 146 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:47,240 Speaker 3: are being built by the Russians. Russia is only building 147 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 3: four reactors in its own country, but it's also building 148 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 3: four reactors in Turkey, four reactors in Egypt, two reactors 149 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:58,840 Speaker 3: in Bangladesh, and four reactors in India. So that brings 150 00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 3: Russia to a total amount of twenty six reactors under 151 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 3: construction that are Russian designs, and if you compare that 152 00:08:06,560 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 3: to the US, there are no nuclear reactors under construction 153 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 3: of US design. Now there's an issue here is that 154 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 3: China is building several CAP one thousands. CAP one thousands 155 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 3: are the Chinese version of the AP one thousand that 156 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 3: is a Westinghouse or US design. Westinghouse will argue that 157 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:27,280 Speaker 3: is they're part of their design, but we look at 158 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:31,280 Speaker 3: the components are eighty percent manufactured in China. There are 159 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:34,680 Speaker 3: certain other modifications and changes that they've done, so we 160 00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:39,319 Speaker 3: characterize that perhaps incorrectly, but I think realistically as as 161 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:42,439 Speaker 3: a reactor of Chinese design as opposed to US design, 162 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:43,959 Speaker 3: that will be a debatable point. 163 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:48,120 Speaker 1: It's a debatable point, but you know, whatever the actual answer, 164 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 1: and I think there's not a right or wrong answer. 165 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:53,320 Speaker 1: You know, the picture that emerges is very clear. China 166 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:56,479 Speaker 1: is the biggest market for nuclear power and a significant 167 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 1: proportion of that is being served by Chinese supply chain, 168 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 1: Chinese developers, and so this puts, like with so many 169 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:05,560 Speaker 1: other markets, China in a good position in the future 170 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:08,680 Speaker 1: to be an exporter of that expertise and know how. 171 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 1: Russia is currently the world's leading exporter of that expertise 172 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 1: and know how. And the US neither has a thriving 173 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 1: domestic market like China which would be a platform to 174 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 1: become an exporter, and it is certainly not an exporter today. 175 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 1: So this is a pretty clear picture and it's hard 176 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:28,240 Speaker 1: to argue with it. So before we talk about how 177 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 1: these executive orders might try and address some of this, 178 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 1: before we talk about the demand pool, what in your 179 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:35,439 Speaker 1: view has gone wrong here, Like if we go back 180 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:38,200 Speaker 1: to when you were having that conversation in twenty ten, 181 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 1: where there was ambitions around small modular reactors, for example, 182 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 1: at that point in time, maybe already the US was 183 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 1: being to lag, but at least people to be making 184 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:49,400 Speaker 1: the claims that have a smaller modul reactor. By twenty twenty, 185 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:51,600 Speaker 1: there must have been stakeholders in the US who felt 186 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:54,120 Speaker 1: the US was in the race, you know, And since 187 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 1: then the US are so comprehensively lost. 188 00:09:56,559 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 2: So what has gone wrong? 189 00:09:57,720 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 3: Well, let me clarify a few things. I'm there the nuances. 190 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:03,840 Speaker 3: Nuance is a very good word to use with regards 191 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 3: to the discussion of the nuclear power industry as far 192 00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:10,079 Speaker 3: as development of advanced reactors, by far in the way, 193 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:12,680 Speaker 3: the US is in first place. We have a whole 194 00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 3: slew of advanced reactive technologies that are being developed by 195 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 3: a wide variety of companies. However, we haven't gotten to 196 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:22,600 Speaker 3: the point where we are licensing them or building them, 197 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 3: and that are two necessary steps. And licensing is a 198 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:29,559 Speaker 3: very challenging process to undergo in the US, and it's 199 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:32,839 Speaker 3: one of the executive orders that Trump signed on May 200 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:36,560 Speaker 3: twenty third was to address NRC reform and but doing 201 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 3: so it will help speed up the process and reduce 202 00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 3: the risk of these nuclear technologies. We're all new innovative technologies, 203 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:47,360 Speaker 3: most of them coming across the finish line getting licensed 204 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:49,679 Speaker 3: and then get it constructed and built. So I don't 205 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:52,480 Speaker 3: want to paint a picture that there's no nuclear leadership 206 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:55,680 Speaker 3: in the US. There's nuclear leadership as far as developing 207 00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 3: new technologies, but we are certainly laggards in actually building 208 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:03,079 Speaker 3: UCAR power plants. We have no nuclear reactors under construction 209 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:05,719 Speaker 3: in North America, never mind in the US all lot. 210 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:08,480 Speaker 1: So I suppose maybe a more nuanced picture that we 211 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:11,960 Speaker 1: could paint is, when it comes to what is happening 212 00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:15,320 Speaker 1: right now, the US has fallen behind in terms of 213 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:18,000 Speaker 1: the deployment of nuclear technologies, and a lot of what 214 00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:20,240 Speaker 1: we've spoken about in terms of those figures refers to 215 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 1: conventional nuclear technologies where Russia is the global exporter of 216 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:27,559 Speaker 1: China is the biggest market, and so the US's hopes 217 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:32,880 Speaker 1: of establishing leadership globally in this space do not hinge 218 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 1: on I guess what you'd call say, catching up in 219 00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 1: that area. It is making sure that this other great 220 00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:43,160 Speaker 1: hope of these next generation of technologies is that the 221 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 1: US doesn't get in its own way of winning that race, 222 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 1: which it is well positioned to win. 223 00:11:48,640 --> 00:11:49,839 Speaker 2: Is that maybe the. 224 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 1: Nuanced take of what the picture currently looks like, and 225 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 1: maybe what these executive orders are aiming to address is, 226 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:59,320 Speaker 1: let's ensure that the US can capitalize on this sort 227 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:02,200 Speaker 1: of new generation of technologies that it has led the 228 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:02,960 Speaker 1: way in developing. 229 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:08,760 Speaker 3: A fundamental first step is building advanced reactors in the US, 230 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 3: whether or not on military basis, on federal land or 231 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:15,760 Speaker 3: by utilities or with hyperscalar demand pull to go ahead 232 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 3: and do that. That's the first step. Once we start 233 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 3: building nuclear reactors in the US, we can expect interest 234 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 3: from other markets overseas to follow, and that makes a 235 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:27,600 Speaker 3: lot of sense. There are a couple of proposals right 236 00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:30,680 Speaker 3: now to build reactors in Eastern Europe that have not 237 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 3: been built in the US, and to me, that strikes 238 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:36,240 Speaker 3: me as a very risky proposition for the new host 239 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:39,160 Speaker 3: country to consider a technology that has yet to be 240 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:41,840 Speaker 3: built in the US. And I think that. 241 00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 2: And these are American technologies. 242 00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:46,440 Speaker 3: American technologies or so, and we're starting to see some progress. 243 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:51,680 Speaker 3: The most exciting development is the General Electric Kitachi nuclear 244 00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:55,600 Speaker 3: power plant that's going to be built in Ontario, Canada 245 00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:59,199 Speaker 3: by Ontario Power Generation. They're going to be four units. 246 00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 3: Four days before the executive orders were signed by President Trump, 247 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:08,120 Speaker 3: the Tennessee Value Authority, with large government utility has also 248 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:11,360 Speaker 3: decided to submit a construction permit for several of the 249 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:14,320 Speaker 3: same reactors. And that's a very very important key is 250 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:18,439 Speaker 3: that the key too mass deployment of these nuclear reactors 251 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:22,000 Speaker 3: is having a significant project pipeline. It's very hard for 252 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 3: a developer or a vendor of a nuclear power plan 253 00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 3: to say, give me a couple of billion dollars and 254 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:30,240 Speaker 3: I'll build your reactor. It's a much easier line, and 255 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 3: the financial community is much more receptive. It says, give 256 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 3: me a couple of billion dollars to build a factory 257 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:39,600 Speaker 3: with which I can manufacture ten to twenty reactors, and 258 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:42,840 Speaker 3: here's the project pipeline I have. So General Electric Hitachi, 259 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:47,880 Speaker 3: for example, has four projects now underway, at least in Canada, 260 00:13:48,040 --> 00:13:52,120 Speaker 3: more in Alberta and Saskatchewan. For in the US at 261 00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 3: the Tennessee Value Authority, some perhaps in Estonia too. The 262 00:13:56,600 --> 00:14:00,319 Speaker 3: General Electric Attachi maybe was a contender for the Great 263 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:03,320 Speaker 3: British Nuclear Program, although Rolls Royce has seemed to have 264 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:07,360 Speaker 3: succeeded in taking being nominated first. But that doesn't preclude 265 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:10,520 Speaker 3: General Electric Katachi for participating in that market. And if 266 00:14:10,520 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 3: I was the UK policy makers, I've sort of divide 267 00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 3: allocate eighty twenty percent, give eighty percent to the SMR 268 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 3: of Rolls Royce Company and twenty percent to General Electric 269 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 3: Tiktaci to create some tension in the marketplace so that 270 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 3: there'll be some cost considerations and that if Rolls Royce 271 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 3: is too expensive, we have another operation. And finally, in Poland, 272 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:33,840 Speaker 3: they have talked about building twenty four of these general 273 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 3: electric katachis. That's a pretty long project pipeline, and they 274 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:41,360 Speaker 3: can make the long term investment necessary to get from 275 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:43,400 Speaker 3: a first of a kind cost to end of a 276 00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 3: kind cost as quickly as possible. That's the secret to 277 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 3: getting a widespread deployment of nuclear power. 278 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 2: So, I mean, that's really interesting. 279 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 1: So Poland is potentially a key market for next generation 280 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:58,560 Speaker 1: technologies because they've they've put in place dot ambition, not 281 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:02,160 Speaker 1: just in terms of a gig target, but specifically actual 282 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 1: projects under development for these technologies. 283 00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 3: My cousins of Poland present a very complicated picture. They've 284 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:13,080 Speaker 3: articulated that they have no nuclear power. And Poland is 285 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:16,160 Speaker 3: the only country that built nuclear power plants and decommissioned 286 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 3: them without ever operating them in the wake of the 287 00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:22,120 Speaker 3: Chernobyl disaster. Now Poland has said we need six to 288 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 3: nine gigawatts of nuclear power to reduce our carbon footprint 289 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:29,840 Speaker 3: because it's largely generating electricity through coal plants. That's very 290 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 3: very ambitious. There's three potential pathways that have surfaced right 291 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 3: now for them to do that. One, they've signed contracts 292 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 3: with the Westinghouse eight p one thousand for three reactors 293 00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 3: or went to three reactors at a very very high cost. 294 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:45,720 Speaker 3: They've also looked at the General Electric Katachi and looked 295 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:48,880 Speaker 3: to build They've announced twenty four projects and finally the 296 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:51,280 Speaker 3: Koreans wanted to get into the act as well, and 297 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:55,440 Speaker 3: they're making proposals for a smaller one gigawatt version of 298 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:58,480 Speaker 3: their reactor at another site. So you have three potential 299 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:03,480 Speaker 3: solutions to Poland's nuclear ambitions. Perhaps two or three will 300 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 3: go through. But it's important to recognize that for Poland, 301 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:10,560 Speaker 3: building large reactors that are manufactured in the US or 302 00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 3: Korea does not necessarily solve all of their social and 303 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 3: political problems. You have a large percentage of the population 304 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:20,640 Speaker 3: who is reliant on coal and a coal industry that 305 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 3: you're introducing technologies to reduce their participation in the Polish economy. 306 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:29,200 Speaker 3: So the idea for Poland to sort of develop a 307 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:32,840 Speaker 3: technology that they can build locally and create a knowledge 308 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 3: industry and industry where there is a lot of participation 309 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:40,280 Speaker 3: from society to support the developing commercialation of lear power 310 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 3: is very very important. And if they can build a 311 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 3: lot of the components in Poland for the long term perspective, 312 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:47,960 Speaker 3: that would be much healthier. 313 00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 1: So with thinking about US technologies, this is maybe partly 314 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:56,720 Speaker 1: the reason, one of the reasons why the plan is 315 00:16:56,720 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 1: so much more robust if it'll relies on the US 316 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 1: market first. So let's bring it back to the US. 317 00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:05,280 Speaker 1: You know, we're going to get to these executive orders 318 00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 1: in a moment, so we painted this picture. US is 319 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:11,440 Speaker 1: very well poised in terms of next generation technologies. Maybe, 320 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:13,680 Speaker 1: and I say this because I read a lot of 321 00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:17,160 Speaker 1: your research. They're not going to be commercial as soon 322 00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:20,040 Speaker 1: as some might hope, but they are still you know, 323 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:22,919 Speaker 1: one day, these next generation nuclear technology is going to 324 00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:25,000 Speaker 1: be very relevant, and the US is in the lead 325 00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:27,919 Speaker 1: on those, but has fallen behind when it comes to 326 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 1: conventional nuclear technology. And so this is the narrative I'm 327 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:34,080 Speaker 1: going with is that, you know, maybe these executive orders 328 00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:37,680 Speaker 1: will help ensure the success of these new technologies by 329 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:40,720 Speaker 1: removing roadblocks. And so I think it is still important 330 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:44,720 Speaker 1: to understand why the US fell behind in conventional nuclear 331 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:48,080 Speaker 1: technology because I'm presuming that some of the challenges faced 332 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:51,879 Speaker 1: there could impact the next generation of nuclear technologies and 333 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 1: therefore why some of these challenges need to be addressed 334 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:57,720 Speaker 1: by these executive orders. So why has the US fallen 335 00:17:57,760 --> 00:17:59,919 Speaker 1: behind in conventional nuclear technology if you. 336 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:03,800 Speaker 3: Look over the last fifteen years. The Fukushima event in 337 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 3: twenty eleven in March of twenty eleven cast a poll 338 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:11,600 Speaker 3: over the global nuclear power industries and infected countries in 339 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 3: different ways. Japan ended up reducing their fleet significantly, Germany 340 00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:20,199 Speaker 3: closed their entire fleet and closed them I get the 341 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 3: end of twenty twenty three or so, and in the 342 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:26,520 Speaker 3: US we closed thirteen reactors for a variety of different purposes. 343 00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:30,080 Speaker 3: So you had this poll hanging over the industry globally. 344 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:35,280 Speaker 3: In some countries were China and Russia paused but realized 345 00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:37,959 Speaker 3: that nuclear has a very big role to play in 346 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:41,640 Speaker 3: their societies, and so they went forward and recovered more quickly. 347 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:44,639 Speaker 3: In the US, we have a preference for renewables, and 348 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 3: we had some support for renewables, and so that has 349 00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:52,040 Speaker 3: been a priority in many many ways. And we also 350 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:55,680 Speaker 3: had very cheap natural gas, and we also have very 351 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:58,919 Speaker 3: high labor costs that made the prospect of building and 352 00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:02,479 Speaker 3: operating large new your power plants more problematic than it 353 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:04,879 Speaker 3: was in other parts of the country. Remember this, Our 354 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:08,040 Speaker 3: analysis suggests that to build a nuclear power plant in China, 355 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 3: they can do it for approximately one fifth cost that 356 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:13,720 Speaker 3: it costs us to build the last two ap one 357 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 3: thousands in Georgia. That's a huge delta. So one can understand, well, 358 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 3: I can build reactors for one fifth of costs in China, 359 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:23,120 Speaker 3: continued doing so, and so in this country where where 360 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:26,440 Speaker 3: we have this high cost label attached to the nuclear 361 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:28,840 Speaker 3: power and I don't think we'll go forward unless we 362 00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 3: can somehow address that. And some of the executive orders 363 00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 3: that Trump has signed may address some of those issues. 364 00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 2: Well, let's let's get onto the main event. Then. 365 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:40,920 Speaker 1: I think we've done a lot of contextualizing so far. 366 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:43,479 Speaker 1: But we came here to talk about these executive orders. 367 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:47,400 Speaker 1: So talk us through these executive orders and what they're 368 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:51,160 Speaker 1: intended to accomplish, and you know your view on whether 369 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:52,639 Speaker 1: they can accomplish those things. 370 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:58,159 Speaker 3: We sign four nuclear executive orders and their aim is 371 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,959 Speaker 3: to revitalize the nuclear energy industry. And some of the 372 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:06,040 Speaker 3: issues that we have or the arguments that the Nuclear 373 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 3: Regulatory Commission, which is the gold standard of regulation of 374 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:13,119 Speaker 3: nuclear power, has been too constraining to the society, and 375 00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:15,800 Speaker 3: so we're talking about perhaps let's think of a way 376 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 3: to make the process less expensive, less daunting to the 377 00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 3: companies that are trying to run down that path and 378 00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:25,639 Speaker 3: accomplish that in say twenty four months, as opposed to 379 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:29,480 Speaker 3: forty four months that has taken the less licensed application 380 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 3: to get approved. So that's a very very important thing. 381 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 3: And we're also talking about leveraging US Department of Energy 382 00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:42,439 Speaker 3: research laboratories to help speed speed that forward. And that 383 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:44,720 Speaker 3: is something that we could also have. You have a 384 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:49,960 Speaker 3: lot of resources available to sponsor and spur research and development. 385 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 3: We'll try to adjuss that. And we want to reinvigorate 386 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,320 Speaker 3: the nuclear industrial base, and so Trump has said, let's 387 00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:59,639 Speaker 3: try to have ten new reactors under construction by twenty 388 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,399 Speaker 3: third and he has set a target for four hundred 389 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:06,200 Speaker 3: giga wats of capacity, adding an additional three hundred capacity 390 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:09,000 Speaker 3: to the existing fleet by twenty to fifty. Those are 391 00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:13,640 Speaker 3: very very ambition plans, more ambitious than the preceding plan. 392 00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 3: It's also important that we try to develop and supply 393 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 3: some of these nuclear power plants to support our military 394 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:28,200 Speaker 3: basis and also to support the anticipated demand from hyperscalers 395 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:31,000 Speaker 3: to power the data centers, which is in many ways 396 00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 3: a national security issue. We've seen some progress already. There 397 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:37,560 Speaker 3: was a discussion about Oklahm, one of the companies that 398 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:41,560 Speaker 3: is developing an innovative advanced react to technology, was recently 399 00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:46,040 Speaker 3: given the go ahead to move forward for supplying electricity 400 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 3: very nuclear their five banguwatt reactor to a site Alsaid 401 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:52,440 Speaker 3: Air Force Base in Alaska, and that has created a 402 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:56,679 Speaker 3: tremendous amount of enthusiasm for the fact that perhaps the 403 00:21:56,840 --> 00:22:01,399 Speaker 3: environment created by releasing these executive orthors may speed up 404 00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:04,719 Speaker 3: the process for the commercialization of a lot of different 405 00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:06,000 Speaker 3: advanced reactors. 406 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:11,360 Speaker 1: So there's this government push on various fronts to unlock 407 00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:15,080 Speaker 1: the potential of US nuclear And yet I know that 408 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:18,000 Speaker 1: you as someone who maybe appreciates how challenging this is, 409 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:21,439 Speaker 1: how long people have been trying, I still sense a 410 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:23,480 Speaker 1: certain amount of skepticism. I mean, just you know, as 411 00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,880 Speaker 1: we said before, the title of your note was Trump 412 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:29,240 Speaker 1: pushes nuclear, but market pull is uncertain. So the market 413 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,919 Speaker 1: pull is a really important factor there. We can all 414 00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:34,840 Speaker 1: about the market pull in a moment, but why is 415 00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:37,280 Speaker 1: it that policy push is not enough? You use this 416 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:39,800 Speaker 1: analogy of trying to push a piece of string. Can 417 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,400 Speaker 1: we just explain a little bit more why why that 418 00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:45,600 Speaker 1: wouldn't be enough? Because in some areas policy push is enough, 419 00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:47,560 Speaker 1: but why not for nuclear. 420 00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:50,880 Speaker 3: So if you are a utility executive, the CEO of utility, 421 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,280 Speaker 3: you're at the job for seven to eight years and 422 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:57,320 Speaker 3: your compensation is largely based upon the performance of the 423 00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 3: utility stock. And so you may a decision, an announcement 424 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:03,720 Speaker 3: to the world that you are going to build a 425 00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:07,119 Speaker 3: large nuclear power plant. And because we don't have the 426 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:11,600 Speaker 3: experience and the workflows and the workforce that the Chinese 427 00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 3: have now in building that, Wall Street views this, Oh 428 00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,800 Speaker 3: my god, they're going to go and build a nuclear 429 00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:20,920 Speaker 3: power plant. Let's short the stock. Because the Wall Street's view, 430 00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:22,879 Speaker 3: at least some of the bankers that I talked to 431 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:26,239 Speaker 3: on a regular basis, suggests that every project in the 432 00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:29,359 Speaker 3: US will be first of a kind project, as opposed 433 00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,040 Speaker 3: to down the pathway towards the end of a kind. 434 00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,239 Speaker 3: And that's the case that all the workers who were 435 00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:38,480 Speaker 3: assembled for the Westinghouse AP one thousand project in Georgia, 436 00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:42,359 Speaker 3: there's no second project. They're all dispersed, and so recreating 437 00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:44,959 Speaker 3: that workforce is going to be much more challenging. So 438 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:48,760 Speaker 3: you're starting at a new site with a large percentage 439 00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:52,200 Speaker 3: of a new workforce, and it's not like a cooker 440 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,200 Speaker 3: cutting approach like the Chinese. The Chinese will build six 441 00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 3: reactors at the same site, so the workforce goes the 442 00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:00,199 Speaker 3: one reactor to the next reactor, the next reactor, and 443 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:02,720 Speaker 3: each one becomes less and less expensive. And as a 444 00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:05,879 Speaker 3: result of that, they can build reactors in a short 445 00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:08,600 Speaker 3: period of time five years as opposed to ten years, 446 00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:10,760 Speaker 3: and for a one fifth of cost that we can 447 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:14,040 Speaker 3: over there. So the utility executive is kind of saying, well, 448 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,600 Speaker 3: I don't want to be the next nuclear power plant 449 00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 3: builder because of the risks to the company by making 450 00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,520 Speaker 3: a decision to go ahead and do that. I happen 451 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,520 Speaker 3: to have visited Saudi Arabia at a time when Saudi 452 00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:29,919 Speaker 3: Arabia was considering building nuclear power plants, and the reason 453 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:33,600 Speaker 3: I visited Saudi Arabia was to understand which company in 454 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:36,479 Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia could be the host institution to do that, 455 00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:39,040 Speaker 3: and the only company that I have discovered in my 456 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:43,679 Speaker 3: travels there was Saudi Aramco. Saudis are still discussing building 457 00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 3: nuclear power plants, but they always end up discussing them 458 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:50,920 Speaker 3: without any firm plants. I'm moving forward. So utilities are 459 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:54,720 Speaker 3: wary of the cost of building a nuclear power plant, 460 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,159 Speaker 3: and so they're standing back and saying I prefer not 461 00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 3: to be the next one to commit. Let's see if 462 00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:02,639 Speaker 3: some some of the estimates from the US government suggests 463 00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:05,520 Speaker 3: that maybe a thirty percent drop would be an appropriate 464 00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,479 Speaker 3: estimate for a new nuclear power plant in the US. 465 00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:11,200 Speaker 3: That takes it from thirty four billion dollars to twenty 466 00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:14,680 Speaker 3: four billion dollars or so. That's a huge cost. The Koreans, 467 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:17,040 Speaker 3: on the other hand, are suggesting that they can build 468 00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:21,600 Speaker 3: two large reactors in Czech Republic for eighteen nineteen billion dollars, 469 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:25,240 Speaker 3: so still significantly less. But in the nuclear industry, price 470 00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:29,239 Speaker 3: because of high interest rates inflation tend to rise, and 471 00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:32,600 Speaker 3: so very infrequently do you see a nuclear project in 472 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,640 Speaker 3: the US or in Western Europe coming less than it's 473 00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:39,840 Speaker 3: forecast to the cost. It's always higher, and sometimes significantly higher. 474 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:42,840 Speaker 3: The West has a terrible track record of building large 475 00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:47,080 Speaker 3: nuclear power plants. It's interesting the way you describe it. 476 00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:50,400 Speaker 3: You know that utilities would rather someone else goes first. 477 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,080 Speaker 3: There's various idioms we could apply to that. 478 00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:55,959 Speaker 1: One would be the US nuclear industry faces a bit 479 00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:58,119 Speaker 1: of a chicken and egg problem. I would prefer to 480 00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,360 Speaker 1: say that you need a critical of projects. 481 00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:06,440 Speaker 3: There are ideas circulating around where there should be some 482 00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:10,679 Speaker 3: sort of mechanism among US utilities to share risk and 483 00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:14,600 Speaker 3: perhaps to form consortiums so that you have access to 484 00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:18,240 Speaker 3: a project that's going through the construction phase, but you're 485 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:20,800 Speaker 3: not on the hook for the entire cost for doing so, 486 00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:23,359 Speaker 3: and so by sharing that risk, you may have a 487 00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:26,760 Speaker 3: fifteen to twenty percent risk for the cost overrun. But 488 00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:29,560 Speaker 3: by doing so you start the process and perhaps the 489 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:32,639 Speaker 3: third or fourth project you'll be able to have a 490 00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,680 Speaker 3: better higher confidence on what the cost will actually be. 491 00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:38,960 Speaker 3: And there's also mechanisms to isolate the cost of the 492 00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:42,600 Speaker 3: nuclear components from the construction cost, so you can offer 493 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:45,720 Speaker 3: the utility a fixed cost contract for the reactor, pressure 494 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,520 Speaker 3: vessel and associated nuclear commitment, and then put it on 495 00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,520 Speaker 3: the utility to manage the construction costs, so that you 496 00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:55,400 Speaker 3: have partially a fixed price contract and a construction contract 497 00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,120 Speaker 3: with the utility itself will manage and that will tend 498 00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:00,640 Speaker 3: to sort of take some of the risk way from 499 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:05,080 Speaker 3: the large deployment risk that is slowing to US utilities 500 00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:08,200 Speaker 3: from buying Nuco. No Nuco's under construction in this country. 501 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:11,240 Speaker 1: I mean, it's really interesting this idea of the sort 502 00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:13,840 Speaker 1: of the high risks of project overruns, and so if 503 00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:18,040 Speaker 1: it relates to the project scale, it seems almost you know, 504 00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:22,800 Speaker 1: from what you're describing, that private sector will inherently struggle 505 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:25,679 Speaker 1: to make this market happen. And you know, in the 506 00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:29,919 Speaker 1: US is it is the archetype of capitalism. It is 507 00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:33,240 Speaker 1: an inherently a country that relies on the private sector 508 00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:36,359 Speaker 1: for innovation and development, and maybe this technology, because of 509 00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:40,720 Speaker 1: the scale of involved, is not well suited to. 510 00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:41,479 Speaker 2: Thrive in that environment. 511 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,439 Speaker 1: Now, obviously, the next generation wave of technologies are not 512 00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,960 Speaker 1: so big in scale, which might mean that it's less challenging. 513 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:50,800 Speaker 1: But there are private sector organizations that do have a 514 00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:54,000 Speaker 1: certain amount of scale that goes, you know, way beyond utilities. 515 00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:57,000 Speaker 1: We think of utilities as big, but tech companies they 516 00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:00,639 Speaker 1: are another proposition entirely. And you mentioned and already the 517 00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,800 Speaker 1: demand pull, and you mentioned hyperscalers. Do you think they 518 00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:07,399 Speaker 1: can help untangle this challenging puzzle? And they certainly have 519 00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:09,919 Speaker 1: incentives to do so with the need for power for 520 00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:14,320 Speaker 1: AI and how do the executive orders from Trump sort 521 00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:17,239 Speaker 1: of enable those organizations to play a more leading role 522 00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:19,120 Speaker 1: in the development of nuclear in this country. 523 00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:23,560 Speaker 3: So before the Trump executive authors, there was a note 524 00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:26,240 Speaker 3: I wrote and I guess December and November of last 525 00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:30,359 Speaker 3: year reflecting the fact that Amazon had participated in a 526 00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:34,479 Speaker 3: Series A or B or C investment in x Energy. 527 00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:38,800 Speaker 3: And there is also Google committed to purchase three hundred 528 00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 3: gig ors the capacity of chirostud reactors. So you do 529 00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:45,720 Speaker 3: have hyperscalers, large data center companies coming in saying yes, 530 00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:48,760 Speaker 3: we have an interest in this technology and we're supportive 531 00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:52,080 Speaker 3: of that. But the question has to be is how 532 00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:55,880 Speaker 3: much money are they investing in the company itself versus 533 00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,960 Speaker 3: how much are they committing in a power purchase agreement 534 00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:01,800 Speaker 3: for that and so, or how strong is that commitment 535 00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:06,440 Speaker 3: and how quickly can the vendors mobilize the technology. Some 536 00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,560 Speaker 3: of these companies have yet to go through the licensing process, 537 00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:13,680 Speaker 3: so there's still licensing risk and construction risk for a 538 00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 3: first of a kind. So the large hyperscalers are circling 539 00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:20,520 Speaker 3: the area looking where to place their bets, and we 540 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,880 Speaker 3: see companies like Amazon being a leader in that effort, 541 00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:27,200 Speaker 3: and I would be curious to see how Meta, Microsoft 542 00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:30,680 Speaker 3: and Google will sort of follow in placing bets on 543 00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:32,000 Speaker 3: various nuclear companies. 544 00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:35,240 Speaker 1: It's so interesting because it's almost for those large tech companies, 545 00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:38,200 Speaker 1: it's the opposite challenge that say the utilities face. The 546 00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:40,320 Speaker 1: utilities don't want to go first, they don't want to 547 00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,480 Speaker 1: move too quickly. They want someone else to do the 548 00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:45,000 Speaker 1: work to bring the costs down. The problem that the 549 00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:48,240 Speaker 1: large tech companies face is they need power sooner rather 550 00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:52,040 Speaker 1: than later. Is this technology ready enough? And maybe they 551 00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:54,720 Speaker 1: are less averse to investing in first of a kind 552 00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:56,840 Speaker 1: and being the first mover on some of these But 553 00:29:57,000 --> 00:30:00,000 Speaker 1: actually there's some of these nuclear technology developers are not 554 00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:04,760 Speaker 1: far enough along in the development process and the process 555 00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:07,840 Speaker 1: of getting licensed to meet their needs. And so do 556 00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:10,320 Speaker 1: you think the executive orders could help address some of 557 00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:11,560 Speaker 1: that of that challenge? 558 00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:16,160 Speaker 3: Well, the executive officers address the NRC reform, they're creating 559 00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:20,120 Speaker 3: an environment that's uncertain with regards to the tax incentives 560 00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,040 Speaker 3: that are going to be available to the advanced nuclear 561 00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:26,120 Speaker 3: power industry. It's something that's in discussion right now even 562 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:28,800 Speaker 3: as we sit here talking about nuclear power right now. 563 00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:32,080 Speaker 3: But I think the fundamental thing that the Executive Orders 564 00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:36,240 Speaker 3: done is giving government support to the industry, or vocalizing 565 00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:39,479 Speaker 3: government support. How that can be monetized is very very 566 00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:43,640 Speaker 3: important issue. China and Russia are leading the commercialization of 567 00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:46,920 Speaker 3: nuclear power because they have very strong support from the 568 00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:49,920 Speaker 3: top The Russian government is very interested in nuclear, as 569 00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,520 Speaker 3: is the Chinese government in very interested in nuclear We 570 00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:56,480 Speaker 3: have not had a significant because of our nature, because 571 00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,280 Speaker 3: of our capitalist system, we tend to not have such 572 00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:02,160 Speaker 3: strong from the top down support. Perhaps this is an 573 00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:05,680 Speaker 3: opportunity through the Executive Orders to demonstrate that yes, we 574 00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:08,480 Speaker 3: have it, and we're starting to see some indication of that, 575 00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:12,120 Speaker 3: specifically with the rapid announcement of the fact that Oklow, 576 00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:15,320 Speaker 3: a project that has been languishing for two years, all 577 00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:17,560 Speaker 3: of a sudden has been announced that now they had 578 00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:19,880 Speaker 3: the go ahead there that one's selected. So the nukea 579 00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:24,080 Speaker 3: industry moves forward like molasses. Hopefully the Executive Orders will 580 00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:27,840 Speaker 3: create an environment where we move some of the uncertainty 581 00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:31,160 Speaker 3: and gives a clear path we're going forward. What's also helping, 582 00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:33,320 Speaker 3: quite frankly, is the fact that there's been such a 583 00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:37,640 Speaker 3: Definius demanded interest in large combined cycle turpins, that the 584 00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:40,240 Speaker 3: backlog for that is now extending to the point that 585 00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:42,440 Speaker 3: perhaps you may not be able to get a guest 586 00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:46,320 Speaker 3: turbine soon enough to meet your requirements. And so if 587 00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:49,280 Speaker 3: you can have a very fast track for an advanced reactor, 588 00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:53,080 Speaker 3: perhaps that might be an option that becomes increasingly more attractive, 589 00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:57,280 Speaker 3: even though the technical readiness is perhaps not there, and 590 00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:59,840 Speaker 3: the technical risk and the regulatory risk still. 591 00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:03,560 Speaker 1: I'm sort of reminded as we talk about this conversation 592 00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:08,640 Speaker 1: of that famous American movie, The Field of Dreams, which 593 00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:12,520 Speaker 1: originated the famous phrase, if you build it, they will come. 594 00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:14,680 Speaker 2: Have you seen that movie? Yes, so you know what 595 00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:16,479 Speaker 2: I'm referring to. It's a good movie. You should check 596 00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:17,880 Speaker 2: it out if you don't know what I'm talking about. 597 00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:23,720 Speaker 1: So it seems like this US nuclear renaissance is a 598 00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:25,000 Speaker 1: bit of a dream right now. 599 00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:25,479 Speaker 2: You know. 600 00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:27,720 Speaker 1: You look at what is possible, and it could be 601 00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,840 Speaker 1: so good for the power section in this country. It 602 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:34,280 Speaker 1: could create jobs in the country, and so the government 603 00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:37,240 Speaker 1: is in this position of trying to build the right 604 00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:40,800 Speaker 1: environment within this framework. As we've mentioned, of a company 605 00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:43,600 Speaker 1: that is inherently driven by the private sector create the 606 00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:47,280 Speaker 1: right environment so that these projects, these technologies will come. 607 00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:49,440 Speaker 1: So I was saying, it reminds me of the field 608 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:51,520 Speaker 1: of dreams. I'm left with this thought, if you build it, 609 00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:55,040 Speaker 1: they will come. Maybe that's what these executive orders are 610 00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:58,440 Speaker 1: part of. And again, this is not a partisan issue. 611 00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:00,960 Speaker 1: In quite the same way, the previous administration was also 612 00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:04,160 Speaker 1: very pro nuclear. It seems like successive US governments are 613 00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:06,520 Speaker 1: trying to figure out how to build the right environment 614 00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:10,000 Speaker 1: to allow the US to capsulize on the progress that 615 00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,479 Speaker 1: has already made in the next generation of nuclear That 616 00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:15,000 Speaker 1: is my takeaway from all of this. Interesting to see 617 00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:16,880 Speaker 1: if you think that's a bad way of thinking of 618 00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,520 Speaker 1: it or does that make sense to you, Chris. 619 00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:21,440 Speaker 3: I think it makes a tremendous amount of sense. But 620 00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:26,400 Speaker 3: I'll introduce one final complicating factor. There are five pathways 621 00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:30,760 Speaker 3: to putting nuclear electrons on the grid. There's large reactors, 622 00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:33,720 Speaker 3: which is problematic in the US because of the big 623 00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:37,360 Speaker 3: deployment risk. There are small reactors that we see moving 624 00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:41,120 Speaker 3: forward in Canada and hopefully in the US. Then you 625 00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:44,960 Speaker 3: have advanced reactors, the reactors that offer some innovation and 626 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:48,480 Speaker 3: a fast reactor, high temperature gas reactor a molten salt 627 00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:52,000 Speaker 3: reactor that are technologically different and perhaps won't be more 628 00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:55,800 Speaker 3: quest competitive and safer. And then you have the microreactors, 629 00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:58,320 Speaker 3: which are very small reactors can be deployed in the 630 00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:01,360 Speaker 3: back of a truck, and the lorry in an airplane yourself. 631 00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:04,800 Speaker 3: And finally, the biggest confusing factor perhaps is the advent 632 00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:07,960 Speaker 3: of fusion. Okay, so if you are looking to buy 633 00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:12,160 Speaker 3: nuclear electrons, there's a big shopping list, five different pathways, 634 00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:17,520 Speaker 3: different timelines, uncertain courts, different technical readiness lists, different types 635 00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:21,480 Speaker 3: of risks. So it's a very confusing landscape for the 636 00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:25,359 Speaker 3: utilities and hyperscalers to operate in right now. And it's 637 00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:27,640 Speaker 3: going to be fascinating to see which one of those 638 00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:31,000 Speaker 3: many many companies that are participating will cross the finish 639 00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:34,720 Speaker 3: line generate reactors or respond to your field of dreams. 640 00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:35,960 Speaker 2: If we build it, they will come. 641 00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,440 Speaker 1: Well, you know, thinking of the field of dreams. You know, 642 00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:40,600 Speaker 1: in that movie for those you haven't seen it, Kevin 643 00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:43,719 Speaker 1: Costner builds a baseball field and a bunch of ghosts 644 00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:47,800 Speaker 1: of famous baseball players show up and start playing baseball. 645 00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:50,440 Speaker 1: I don't think the film ever addresses which of the 646 00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:53,120 Speaker 1: Ghosts one at baseball. But this is a little bit 647 00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:55,600 Speaker 1: like from Kevin Costner's point of view, it didn't matter 648 00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:58,319 Speaker 1: which of the ghosts one, but for the ghosts, presumably 649 00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:01,759 Speaker 1: as competitive baseball players, they wanted to have been the 650 00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:04,440 Speaker 1: one to win. So maybe the government here is Kevin Costner. 651 00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:07,319 Speaker 1: So long as somebody wins, that's a good outcome. And 652 00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,320 Speaker 1: for the ghosts, well, they've got to turn up to 653 00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:11,239 Speaker 1: the field of the dream and compete, but at least 654 00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:14,319 Speaker 1: they have an opportunity to compete. Chris, this has been, 655 00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:17,080 Speaker 1: as always a fascinating conversation. I hope that there's more 656 00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:18,960 Speaker 1: development so we have an excuse to bring you on 657 00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:21,279 Speaker 1: again because I always enjoy talking to you. But thank 658 00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:23,640 Speaker 1: you very much for joining us today. 659 00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:24,399 Speaker 2: Thank you, Tavi. 660 00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:25,400 Speaker 3: It's always the pleasure. 661 00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:37,319 Speaker 1: Today's episode of Switched On was produced by Cam Gray 662 00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:41,200 Speaker 1: with production assistants from Kamala Shelling. Bloomberg NIF is a 663 00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:44,360 Speaker 1: service provided by Bloomberg Finance LP and its affiliates. This 664 00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:47,640 Speaker 1: recording does not constitute, nor should it be construed, as investment, 665 00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:51,120 Speaker 1: a vice, investment recommendations, or a recommendation as to an 666 00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:54,320 Speaker 1: investment or other strategy Bloomberg ANNIF should not be considered 667 00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:57,680 Speaker 1: as information sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. 668 00:35:57,760 --> 00:36:00,759 Speaker 1: Neither Bloomberg Finance LP nor any of its affiliates makes 669 00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:04,520 Speaker 1: any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness 670 00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:05,799 Speaker 1: of the information contained in 671 00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:08,360 Speaker 2: This recording, and any liability as a result of this 672 00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:10,239 Speaker 2: recording is expressly disclaimed