1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:26,599 Speaker 1: us live on. 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 2: YouTube Right now, David Balin joins chief executive officers CIO 7 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 2: Capital and of course Decades It's City Group as well. 8 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 2: What is the emotion that you see out there among investors, David? 9 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:42,200 Speaker 3: Is it truly the exuberance of a bull market. 10 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:46,560 Speaker 4: There's no question time that we see the exuberance of 11 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 4: a bull market. And I think that people are beginning 12 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:51,279 Speaker 4: to focus on twenty twenty six and take a look 13 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:53,480 Speaker 4: at what's going to happen for earnings and things like that, 14 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 4: and they are, you know, they're pretty bullish on it. 15 00:00:57,000 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 4: And I think what they're missing right now is that 16 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 4: if tariffs are cleaned up, if we actually knew what 17 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:05,679 Speaker 4: the tariff policy was, we can have a very robust 18 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 4: twenty twenty six. If we continue to have the kind 19 00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 4: of policy now that varies, we're going to see some 20 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 4: real issues with two different parts of the economy, one 21 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 4: manufacturing slowing down, and unemployment rising. And the second is 22 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 4: that there are a lot of tech companies that, if 23 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 4: they don't get air under their wings, will remain unprofitable 24 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:25,960 Speaker 4: in twenty six six and that could create an overhanging 25 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 4: the market. 26 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 3: I look at my chart. 27 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 2: Of the day which was on on Twitter, and it's 28 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 2: a huge investment contribution of AI computer software into our GDP. 29 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 2: Is this a fictional buoyant economy? Is it a pretend 30 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 2: buoyant economy? 31 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 3: It is? 32 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 4: This is tom This is perhaps the most real investment 33 00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 4: cycle that we've seen since the Internet boom. But the 34 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 4: difference this time is we're building an extraordinary amount of 35 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 4: infrastructure order of magnitude. Four hundred billion dollars has been 36 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 4: committed this year alone. We've seen a forty percent increase 37 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 4: right in all of the related hardware and commitments for 38 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:09,919 Speaker 4: chips this year. Next year we expect to see another 39 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 4: growth rate. The market expects about a ten percent growth 40 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 4: rate in that area. We think it'll be more like 41 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 4: fifteen percent on top of that. And that's an enormous 42 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 4: amount of capital. And then, of course, the impact of 43 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:22,840 Speaker 4: AI itself on business will take place after that. Not 44 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 4: all of those investments are going to be successful, but 45 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 4: they are going to transform the economy here in the 46 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 4: United States and certainly in China, and that's happening right now. 47 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 4: And those are both investable, and I think that what 48 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 4: is county railing that and what's makes you doubted, I think, Tom, 49 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:41,880 Speaker 4: and there's legitimate, is that you have a boom in 50 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:43,920 Speaker 4: this area right and you have a bit of a 51 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:46,080 Speaker 4: bust in two parts of the economy, one being in 52 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 4: healthcare and specifically you know in the fact that healthcare 53 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 4: shares are trading perhaps as bad as they have at 54 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 4: any time in the last twenty years on evaluation basis. 55 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:56,920 Speaker 4: And the second is you're not seeing a pick up 56 00:02:56,960 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 4: in manufacturing or manufacturing employment yet that, as I mentioned, 57 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 4: is really TIAP related. 58 00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 2: David, You've done a great study of cash. What's changed, say, 59 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 2: in the last one hundred. 60 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 3: Days, nothing, Tom. 61 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:14,800 Speaker 4: Cash is in my mind, simply the most ignored part 62 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 4: of the retail balance sheet and the family office balant 63 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 4: sheet that I've ever seen in my entire career. Just 64 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:25,280 Speaker 4: to give you some numbers, family offices have somewhere between 65 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 4: on average nine to nine and a half percent in 66 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:29,919 Speaker 4: cash the average yields that they earn on that are 67 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 4: a little bit above two percent, they could be earning 68 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 4: four to four and a half percent, and it is 69 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 4: something something where there is just in transigent laziness on 70 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 4: the part of on the part of investors, and frankly, 71 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 4: I think part of this is on the part of 72 00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:47,000 Speaker 4: firms that are not bringing this to the attention of 73 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 4: their of their clients. I think it's very important that 74 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 4: we treat asked cash like an acid class. That's something 75 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:55,560 Speaker 4: we're going to do at CIO Group from now on 76 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:57,440 Speaker 4: and talk about the fact that if you're going to 77 00:03:57,440 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 4: retain that large a portion of your balance sheet in cash, 78 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 4: that there are ways in different parts of the market 79 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 4: that you should be investing in far more aggressively than 80 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 4: they have been. 81 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 5: David, we've got a federal reserve that's been gone a 82 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 5: rate cutting cycle. Here, what does that mean for the 83 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:13,800 Speaker 5: fixed income market? How are you guys thinking about that? 84 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:15,280 Speaker 3: Right? 85 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:18,480 Speaker 4: You know, we've been encouraging our clients to really think 86 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 4: about having more of their capital deployed in the intermediate 87 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 4: space anywhere between three and seven years, and they're going 88 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:27,279 Speaker 4: to get a higher total return over the course of 89 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 4: the next two years by doing that. 90 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:31,479 Speaker 3: We think that the rate cycle itself will be extended. 91 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 4: In other words, it's not going to come down quickly, 92 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:36,560 Speaker 4: but it will come down consistently over the course of 93 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:39,159 Speaker 4: twenty twenty six. And part of that, of course, is 94 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 4: going to be the fact that the economy itself is 95 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:41,200 Speaker 4: going to be a. 96 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:43,040 Speaker 3: Little weaker with the exception. 97 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:45,919 Speaker 4: Time of AI related activity, and that's going to enable 98 00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 4: them to reduce rates. And also this is part of 99 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 4: a larger plan which I think the administration really wants 100 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:54,719 Speaker 4: to see lower rates, which they've made very clear, but 101 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:56,240 Speaker 4: they're going to then do a lot of the debt 102 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 4: refinancing in the US looking at the five year or 103 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 4: less and I think that's all part of a larger 104 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 4: plan to mitigate I think, what are very large deficits 105 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 4: for the next several years. 106 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 3: David Bamon, thank you so much for CIO capital. Tiffany 107 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 3: Wilding has never gone to three decimal points. 108 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 2: If she did, they throw her out of that acclaim 109 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 2: meeting at PIMCO where she talks to the fixed income managers. 110 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:21,599 Speaker 2: I mean, I'm seeing a buoyancy, Tiffany. How do you 111 00:05:21,680 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 2: do fixed income in a boom economy? 112 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 6: Well, I think that there's I think there's winners and 113 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 6: losers right now in the economy, and that's the result 114 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:36,279 Speaker 6: of you know, what I would call clashing of three 115 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 6: three policy pivot slash cycles that are happening. So you 116 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 6: have the tariffs that have come up quite a bit 117 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:45,560 Speaker 6: more than any time in a century. You also have 118 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:48,320 Speaker 6: immigration policy that's done a U term, and underlying all 119 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 6: of that, we have this tech boom that's also happening. 120 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:53,919 Speaker 6: So what does that mean, Well, it means the economy 121 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 6: is adjusting, and certain parts of the economy are do 122 00:05:57,560 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 6: look like they're doing worse than other parts. I think 123 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 6: the most interesting thing right now is the labor markets. 124 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:05,159 Speaker 6: If you look at the details of it, you know, 125 00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 6: they do look quite recessionary. If you adjust the the 126 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 6: Establishment Survey for some of the overestimation issues that it's 127 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:15,520 Speaker 6: had over the past year or of several years, you know, 128 00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:20,479 Speaker 6: it does look contractionary. But however, despite that, you have consumers. 129 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:23,719 Speaker 6: You have real consumption you know that is still chugging along. 130 00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:27,719 Speaker 6: You have real wage growth that is you know, still 131 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 6: resilient around one percent that's supporting consumption. And you have 132 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 6: this AI capital boom that's happening under the surface as well. 133 00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:36,560 Speaker 6: So there's you know, there's a lot of on the 134 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 6: one hand, on the other hand, not to be a 135 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 6: two handed economist, but it's an interesting it's an interesting 136 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:42,880 Speaker 6: economy right now. 137 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 5: And Tiffany, the inflation data that we just received at 138 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:49,880 Speaker 5: eight thirty this morning suggests that inflations kind of check here. 139 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 5: There's nothing really to spook anybody. I don't think what 140 00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:54,719 Speaker 5: did you make of the inflation data? 141 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I think just taking a step back, 142 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 6: you know, we haven't seen this type of tariff adjustment 143 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:04,280 Speaker 6: in a century, so there is a lot of uncertainty 144 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 6: around just how it would play out. You know, we 145 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:09,159 Speaker 6: try to have some sort of historical benchmark which suggests that, 146 00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 6: you know, tariffs are passed through to prices. But the 147 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 6: reality is is when we look at the data right now, 148 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 6: what's happening is that companies are passing some of it 149 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 6: through but much less and I think most people expect it. 150 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 6: And where you're getting more of an adjustment is lower 151 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 6: cost Companies are trying to manage costs in other places, 152 00:07:27,160 --> 00:07:30,200 Speaker 6: and one of those places is managing labor costs, and 153 00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 6: we think the clash of the AI cycle, you know, 154 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:36,040 Speaker 6: is also allowing them to manage labor costs. You're already 155 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 6: seeing tech entry level job hiring a tech firm start 156 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:43,239 Speaker 6: to slump, So the labor market is taking on more 157 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 6: of this adjustment than I think most people expected. 158 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 3: What's your model number? I'm some fan, you know. 159 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 2: I think Jerome Schneider, I mean, is only working like 160 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 2: a three day work I mean his idea long term 161 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 2: it is ninety day paper. 162 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:58,160 Speaker 3: So you're talking to Jerome Schneider, a Pimco legend and 163 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 3: short term paper, and Tiffany, you have to talk about 164 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 3: the buoyancy of the economy. 165 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:12,840 Speaker 2: Is AI discrete or is the American economy doing better? Yeah? 166 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:16,160 Speaker 6: I mean again, I think if you just look at 167 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 6: growth rates last year versus this year, we have seen 168 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 6: a clear step down in the pace of growth in 169 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:25,680 Speaker 6: the US economy. You know, we were growing you go, 170 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:28,000 Speaker 6: call it two and a half to three percent over 171 00:08:28,040 --> 00:08:30,000 Speaker 6: the last you know, not only last year, but of 172 00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:32,200 Speaker 6: the last several years. And now we've stepped that pace 173 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:33,959 Speaker 6: down to what looks like a one and a half 174 00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:37,679 Speaker 6: to one percent pace. So clearly the economy stepping down, 175 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 6: you know. But I think what's becoming more clear is 176 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:42,640 Speaker 6: that any economist, when you have that big of a 177 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:46,080 Speaker 6: move in growth. You have a deceleration in growth, you know, 178 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:48,320 Speaker 6: you worry about that momentum, so you worry about the 179 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 6: economy stalling. But it looks like, you know, when you 180 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:53,680 Speaker 6: look across indicators, we are not seeing a stalling in 181 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:55,880 Speaker 6: the economy. We're seeing growth that step down. 182 00:08:56,280 --> 00:09:00,440 Speaker 2: Where is the slowing economy? To me, Paul mentioned it earlier, 183 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 2: it's just case shape. There's a part of America flat 184 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 2: on their back. There's a part of America booming wealth 185 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:10,560 Speaker 2: effect whatever. You know that drill tiffany better than I do. 186 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:14,359 Speaker 2: What does a FED do? How does a FED manage 187 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:17,800 Speaker 2: the polarity of the American economic experiment? 188 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 3: Yeah? 189 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 6: I mean I think that it's a really tough environment 190 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:25,320 Speaker 6: to be a central banker, you know, for a lot 191 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:30,440 Speaker 6: of reasons. And I think how you balance this all 192 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 6: of these factors is that you remind yourself, as most 193 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:37,240 Speaker 6: of them do all the time, that you're still above 194 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:41,080 Speaker 6: neutral policy. You still think you're restrictive, and you do 195 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:43,960 Speaker 6: have an economy that has slowed. You have a labor 196 00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 6: market that has slowed quite dramatically, and you have inflation 197 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 6: risks that look less than they did before. And so 198 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 6: What that means in our mind is that you can 199 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:56,560 Speaker 6: start cutting interest rates, you know now, because the economy 200 00:09:56,559 --> 00:09:58,959 Speaker 6: doesn't look like it's stalling, and we wouldn't go as 201 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:01,040 Speaker 6: far as to say recession and aary cuts are needed, 202 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:04,400 Speaker 6: you know, but starting that cutting cycle back to neutral 203 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 6: makes sense to us. You get more information, you see 204 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 6: how the economy is reacting. 205 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:09,320 Speaker 2: When was the last time I did this, Paul? I 206 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:12,440 Speaker 2: just did a fibonacci retrace mail boy from the peak 207 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:13,440 Speaker 2: of the market. 208 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:16,440 Speaker 3: On September twenty two. We had three down days in 209 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:19,560 Speaker 3: a row. Ice. Ice stayed solid because I was all 210 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:20,439 Speaker 3: in cash. 211 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:24,840 Speaker 2: We just hit the fifty percent retracement yep in like 212 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 2: a cup of senka. We just hit the fifty percent 213 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:32,079 Speaker 2: retracement going up of our three day debacle home. 214 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:33,079 Speaker 3: It was a correction. 215 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:36,360 Speaker 5: It was a correction for the ages. So, tiffany one 216 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 5: of the areas that's a little bit concerning for I 217 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:41,560 Speaker 5: think consermers out there is the housing market here. It's 218 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 5: just a affordability of housing is such a problem for 219 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 5: so much of this economy. How do you think about that? 220 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, clearly, the housing affordability issue is a 221 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 6: very big issue, you know, we would argue it's a 222 00:10:57,200 --> 00:11:00,280 Speaker 6: political issue when we look under the surface of the 223 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:04,200 Speaker 6: housing market. However, you know what we see as a 224 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 6: housing market actually that has pretty decent fundamentals, you know, 225 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 6: just in terms of leverage, equity and homes, you know, 226 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 6: and the fact that after the Great Financial Crisis you 227 00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:18,719 Speaker 6: had about a decade of underbuilding relative to relative to 228 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:22,080 Speaker 6: population growth and demographics. You know. So the housing market, 229 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:25,079 Speaker 6: you know, from a supplied demand perspective, you know, it's 230 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 6: it's in a tight spot. So that's you know, not 231 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 6: where it was at all before the you know, the 232 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:33,720 Speaker 6: two thousand and eight financial crisis. But nevertheless, with COVID 233 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 6: you saw this very big run up in prices along 234 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 6: with higher interest rates that's made housing much much less affordable. 235 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:43,599 Speaker 6: So we need the economy, we need real incomes to 236 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 6: basically grow into these housing prices, you know, And our 237 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:49,080 Speaker 6: view is that you're probably going to have housing prices 238 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:51,960 Speaker 6: that are a bit more sluggish in terms of their 239 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:54,200 Speaker 6: appreciation over the next several years as you get that 240 00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:55,439 Speaker 6: economy growing into them. 241 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:57,880 Speaker 2: I mean, Tiffany, I know you lived down the street 242 00:11:57,880 --> 00:11:59,960 Speaker 2: from Antigua a Way in Newport. 243 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:01,400 Speaker 3: Beach into six six zero. 244 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:05,600 Speaker 2: I got four bedrooms, four bass twenty seven hundred square 245 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 2: feet for Paul. That's a small abode, clocking in at 246 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 2: four point two million dollars. 247 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 3: I mean, the housing market is nuts. What is the 248 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:20,959 Speaker 3: most efficacious ten year yield for you? For American society? 249 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 2: What yield would not the bond guys at PIMCO a 250 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 2: legitimate economist, what's the best ten year yield for America? 251 00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:34,400 Speaker 6: Well, I mean I think this gets into this concept 252 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 6: you know that many people criticize but is helpful for 253 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:40,800 Speaker 6: central banks, of what is the neutral interest rate? And 254 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:43,440 Speaker 6: that's like the rate that the economy can handle. It's 255 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:46,079 Speaker 6: never you know, accelerating or decelerating. And I think there's 256 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:48,800 Speaker 6: a lot of debate around that right now, but many 257 00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:52,200 Speaker 6: people think that a nominal kind of neutral interest rate 258 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:55,679 Speaker 6: of three percent is you know, something that is more 259 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 6: neutral for the economy. I mean, if you look at 260 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 6: broader investment, not just how residential investment, which has been 261 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:07,520 Speaker 6: you know, very low, flat slash contractionary, a broader set 262 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 6: of investment in the United States is actually also flat 263 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 6: to slightly contractionary outside of AI. So if you look 264 00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 6: at everything x AI, you know, it does look like 265 00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:20,560 Speaker 6: monetary policy is restrictive, and so I think as a 266 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:22,800 Speaker 6: result of that, they have room to bring down interest rates. 267 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:24,400 Speaker 6: You know, we think kind of a three percent level 268 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 6: still makes a lot of sense to us, you know, 269 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:30,720 Speaker 6: you know, Stephen Myron made a made a case for 270 00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 6: something lower than that. I think we just have to see, 271 00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 6: you know, again, taking small steps, seeing how the economy 272 00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:38,560 Speaker 6: reacts to that is what makes sense to us. 273 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:41,120 Speaker 3: Now, it's gift Tiffany in Trouble Friday. Okay, that's what 274 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 3: it is called, Tiffany. 275 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:45,720 Speaker 2: Do you agree with the certitude Governor Myron has of 276 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 2: a need for a shock rate cut down to a 277 00:13:48,679 --> 00:13:49,319 Speaker 2: new regime. 278 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I think this is the key issue 279 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:58,160 Speaker 6: with monetary policy and central banking. You know, the thing 280 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 6: is is if you're if you're uncertain, the level of 281 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 6: our star is uncertain. Anybody who's worked on the models 282 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,960 Speaker 6: that try to estimate these things understand how big of 283 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:11,839 Speaker 6: bands are around the point estimates and uncertainty. And if 284 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:14,200 Speaker 6: you're uncertain about anything as a central banker, what you 285 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 6: want to do is move more slowly, and you want 286 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:19,880 Speaker 6: to take steps, and you want to see how the 287 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 6: economy reacts. Now, the reasons why you move fast as 288 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 6: a central banker is that you're worried that inflation expectations 289 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 6: are going to become unanchored. Inflation expectations look very stable, 290 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 6: you know, or you worry that the economy is going 291 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 6: into recession, and then you want to move quickly, you know. 292 00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:36,640 Speaker 6: And again, as I mentioned before, you know, there's a 293 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 6: lot of data that suggests that, you know, the economy, 294 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 6: the growth rate has moved down, but we're not necessarily 295 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 6: nearing it, you know, a stall. So you know, again, 296 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:47,720 Speaker 6: I think all of that suggests that moving in a 297 00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:50,880 Speaker 6: methodical way makes a lot of sense here for the. 298 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:53,720 Speaker 2: FED, brilliant, really complete, Thank you so much. Tifhity wild 299 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 2: there as well. We've pried for what three days to 300 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 2: get Ethan Deevin. 301 00:14:57,200 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 5: On with the schedules and schedule. 302 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 2: It joins us right now. Senior investment strategists Manetta Group 303 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 2: love having her on. Even Prime Minister Mitsotakis was collegial 304 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 2: about the challenge of Europe. Can the fiscal tobaccle, which 305 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:18,440 Speaker 2: is Europe, can it affect America? 306 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 7: Very interesting question and yes, better late than never. Great 307 00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 7: to be here again. In terms of Europe, Greece is 308 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 7: actually a great example of a comeback kid when it 309 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 7: comes to Europe. They have come from being one of 310 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 7: the so called pigs back in the day when austerity 311 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 7: have to dominate, and they've really read engineered their economy. 312 00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 7: They've focused a lot on tourism and they really have 313 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:45,920 Speaker 7: moved it into that more positive phase. So I'd say 314 00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:48,120 Speaker 7: that is certainly in Europe in Tagant along with Spain, 315 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:50,360 Speaker 7: as one of the comeback kids. So as to what 316 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:53,160 Speaker 7: whether Europe is is in adulgence, certainly it is not 317 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:56,720 Speaker 7: experiencing the same resilient growth as we see in the US, 318 00:15:57,000 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 7: and is lower inflation even stagflation areas if you look 319 00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 7: at the UK on the periphery of Europe there. 320 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:05,160 Speaker 3: So as to whether it will drive the. 321 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:08,840 Speaker 7: US down, I don't see that the US is firing 322 00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:12,080 Speaker 7: on all cylinders on its own. I think as a 323 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 7: trading partner it's already gaining independence. 324 00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 5: So if one of the concerns here of the marketplace is, boy, 325 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 5: this has been such a big run off of that 326 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:23,160 Speaker 5: April low and if we've gone too far too fast, 327 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:26,280 Speaker 5: our earnings there to support it? Are is fed policy 328 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:29,440 Speaker 5: there to support it? How what are the conversations you're 329 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:31,120 Speaker 5: having with your clients these days about that. 330 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:34,640 Speaker 7: We're starting, we're having the conversations around some of this 331 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:38,240 Speaker 7: uncertainty that is circulating on the policy side, on the 332 00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:41,880 Speaker 7: political side, geopolitical side, and then we're contrasting that with 333 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:45,200 Speaker 7: the resilient market performance which has seemed like that teflon 334 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 7: market that is marched ahead regardless. So our clients are 335 00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 7: clearly pleased that their worries which they are experiencing are 336 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 7: not being reflected in their investment portfolio as far as 337 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:57,440 Speaker 7: whether we see there's a frothiness emerging. How we and 338 00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:00,120 Speaker 7: Manetta are insulating against that is by going back to 339 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 7: our diversification playbook that we've never really strayed from or 340 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:06,720 Speaker 7: going back to kind of validate our strategy there, and 341 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:10,720 Speaker 7: that's diversification into small caps, mid caps, less exciting sectors 342 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:11,440 Speaker 7: of the economy. 343 00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:13,600 Speaker 3: We've always had a linchpin. 344 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:17,159 Speaker 7: Of inflation resilient assets such as such as infrastructure and 345 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:20,360 Speaker 7: real estate. They haven't been stars shining stars at all 346 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:23,720 Speaker 7: in the portfolio. And we've had that international exposure, which 347 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:26,640 Speaker 7: has finally started to earn its keep after about ten 348 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,840 Speaker 7: years of languagehaing under performance, as well as the dollar 349 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 7: was weaker. So the dollar being now and weaker is 350 00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:36,120 Speaker 7: it is making those performance even more compelling. So I'd 351 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:38,320 Speaker 7: say we are a little concerned about froth. But how 352 00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 7: that will manifest is in more volatility in the tech names. 353 00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 5: Real Quick, thirty seconds. Gold what a star? 354 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 8: Yeah, gold has been a star. 355 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 7: We tend to see that more through some of the 356 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:51,080 Speaker 7: picks and shovels around gold, some of the broader holdings 357 00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:54,320 Speaker 7: within our portfolio. We don't have dedicated exposure to gold. 358 00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:57,040 Speaker 7: I think gold though, can be seen as an alarm bell, 359 00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:59,919 Speaker 7: as a signal as to what investors are really thinking 360 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:03,040 Speaker 7: about the fiscal state and the concern about dollar debasement. 361 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:05,560 Speaker 7: So yes, it's positive story, but what can we read 362 00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:05,879 Speaker 7: into that? 363 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:08,000 Speaker 3: If you can't wait to get you into our studios 364 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:08,600 Speaker 3: here in New York. 365 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:12,720 Speaker 2: As devit is, senior investment strategist at Monetta Group. 366 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:13,680 Speaker 3: Stay with us. 367 00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:17,120 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 368 00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:27,960 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 369 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:31,159 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 370 00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:34,919 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 371 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:37,080 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 372 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:41,359 Speaker 2: From trend following, joining us as Katie's Kaminski really one 373 00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:44,000 Speaker 2: of the leaders in the nation at Alpha Simplex on 374 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:47,479 Speaker 2: trend following. Let's go back to Soybetia futures and what 375 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:51,400 Speaker 2: John Henry Monroe, Trout and a whole bunch of others did. 376 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 2: What did they invent with Sparks stations years ago? 377 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:58,479 Speaker 9: So trend following is a strategy where you're looking at 378 00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:02,159 Speaker 9: rules and you're looking over different horizons to determine the 379 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 9: footprint of the market using math. And so what was 380 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 9: exciting about their approach was they were following market trends 381 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:11,800 Speaker 9: using math, and today we do the same thing, perhaps. 382 00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:15,359 Speaker 3: A little more math, but this is beautifully explaining, folks. 383 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 2: What's so important here is they did this on spark stations, 384 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 2: which were unreachable, and then one day Michael Bloomberg and 385 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:27,160 Speaker 2: Tom Secundi showed up with a mini Sparks station called 386 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:30,320 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and all of a sudden, I had 387 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:35,560 Speaker 2: unit choice. In looking at five, six, seven trend following ideas, 388 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:39,399 Speaker 2: which unit right now, Katie Kaminski. 389 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,919 Speaker 3: Is most efficacious for staying on trend? 390 00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:44,680 Speaker 9: Well, I think if you think about units, we tend 391 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 9: to think more about windows and frequencies as the most interesting. 392 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:53,680 Speaker 9: So longer term horizons have been more more profitable recently, 393 00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:56,960 Speaker 9: thank you, but shorter term horizons have really struggled. So 394 00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:57,879 Speaker 9: we'll see what happened. 395 00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 5: So what are some of the areas now that have 396 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:03,159 Speaker 5: your attention right now, whether it's stocks, bonds, commodities. 397 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:06,879 Speaker 9: I think you know who can't ignore what's going on 398 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:09,960 Speaker 9: in precious metals. I mean that's been very interesting to me. 399 00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:11,920 Speaker 9: I mean we're talking about gold, but take a look 400 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:13,159 Speaker 9: at slatinum. 401 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 5: Palladium, looking on GCLO, just really. 402 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:18,720 Speaker 9: Big trends, and that has been something that we've been 403 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:22,280 Speaker 9: certainly following because it is sort of at odds with 404 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:25,800 Speaker 9: sort of that things are looking like we might have cuts. 405 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,200 Speaker 9: So I think what we've seen recently is some new 406 00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:31,959 Speaker 9: trendsforming and some question about fixed income has been just 407 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:32,800 Speaker 9: really difficult. 408 00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:36,439 Speaker 5: But otherwise so I'm seeing again gold up forty two 409 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:39,880 Speaker 5: percent year to date, silver up fifty five percent year 410 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:41,920 Speaker 5: to date. I didn't see that one copper up higher 411 00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:44,879 Speaker 5: as well. Typically for alpha, simplex is a trade that 412 00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:47,720 Speaker 5: you guys put on. What's the typical duration of a 413 00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:48,639 Speaker 5: trade you guys put on? 414 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:52,240 Speaker 9: So trends can vary in size and link. And what's 415 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 9: interesting with the gold trend, it's been going on for 416 00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 9: almost two years, so some of these trends have emerged 417 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:02,640 Speaker 9: more recently. So Gullie silver has been a trend that's 418 00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:06,480 Speaker 9: been emerging more this year. So it really varies depending 419 00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:09,880 Speaker 9: on what the market environment is and what trends are prevailing. 420 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,879 Speaker 2: The first question I mentioned Peter from Connecticut today. The 421 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:17,080 Speaker 2: second question he asked me was, Tom, tell me about 422 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 2: moving averages. I use climate exponential moving averages where I'm 423 00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:25,440 Speaker 2: looking at the area between them on a log WI axis. Okay, 424 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 2: enough jargon. The bottom line for our audience. It drives 425 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 2: me nuts when I hear a study of death cross 426 00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 2: Katie Kaminski and the preper use of moving averages. 427 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 9: So if you think about using moving averages, it's really 428 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,040 Speaker 9: about looking at sort of what is the direction across 429 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 9: different frequencies. So one of the best ways to combine 430 00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 9: these methods is to compare them and then look at 431 00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:51,959 Speaker 9: them across multiple different crosses of moving averages and examine 432 00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:55,720 Speaker 9: how much you're seeing that change across different frequencies of 433 00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:56,680 Speaker 9: trend movements. 434 00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:57,960 Speaker 3: Are you looking at the tangent. 435 00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:00,560 Speaker 2: If you take an exponential moving average, you're looking at 436 00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:04,040 Speaker 2: the engine of it over what time for fourteen days. 437 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 9: So it depends. I'd say exponential moving averages are better 438 00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 9: than moving averages because they don't drop data points. So 439 00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:14,480 Speaker 9: think if you have sort of a you know, an 440 00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:17,959 Speaker 9: April an April seventh data point in there, boom, it 441 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:19,359 Speaker 9: will message just. 442 00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:22,440 Speaker 3: Looking at me time, you're such a nerd. All save 443 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:23,200 Speaker 3: the interview. 444 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,120 Speaker 5: So, in terms of risk managing risk, a typical hedge 445 00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,800 Speaker 5: fund might say, hey, if your position moves ten percent 446 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,119 Speaker 5: against you, you cut it in half and moves another five percent, 447 00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:32,879 Speaker 5: you're just out and don't come crying to me. That 448 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:34,960 Speaker 5: was when I was working hedge funds. That's what my 449 00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:38,600 Speaker 5: Pam would say, is how do you guys manage risk 450 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:39,920 Speaker 5: in terms of movements? 451 00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 9: You know, this is a good question, and that's why 452 00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:45,000 Speaker 9: trend falling as a strategy is meant to be self 453 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:48,359 Speaker 9: correcting in the sense that as trends move against you, 454 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:52,600 Speaker 9: your positions naturally reduce. So as you see trends expand 455 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,800 Speaker 9: you're expanding positioning as you see them contracting, you're contracting positioning. 456 00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 2: All using math, where it is this good morning, Ninettude 457 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,400 Speaker 2: I NFM is a guy named Ed Thorpe. I've had 458 00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:09,440 Speaker 2: the great honor of speaking rhythm a guy named Andrew Lowe. 459 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:13,000 Speaker 2: One of his disciples is Katie Kaminski here and I 460 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:18,520 Speaker 2: should mention it. Imperial College, Paul Wilmot, who change quantitative finance. 461 00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,600 Speaker 3: So within that you get back to the basic thing. 462 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,359 Speaker 2: That all of our listeners and viewers know is, Okay, 463 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 2: I'm going to be responsible. I own a video like 464 00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,680 Speaker 2: I don't, and I'm going to have a stop loss. 465 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:31,840 Speaker 3: You don't do stop losses. 466 00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:34,119 Speaker 2: But what do you do when you get a melt 467 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,879 Speaker 2: up all time highs, you get a pullback? 468 00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:39,720 Speaker 3: How do you gauge when to get out? 469 00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:42,719 Speaker 9: So really, when you have sort of a reversal and signal, 470 00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:45,000 Speaker 9: it's a combination of two things. One is sort of 471 00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:49,560 Speaker 9: the reduction in the signal strength. The other is volatility expansion. 472 00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:52,880 Speaker 9: So as volatility expand, you also integrate that and how 473 00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:56,120 Speaker 9: you measure what your position sizing should be. So when 474 00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 9: you see that's why you see a lot of quants 475 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:01,120 Speaker 9: struggle this year, because when you see those types, it's 476 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:02,040 Speaker 9: hard to measure it. 477 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:05,520 Speaker 3: Paul, I want Paul, I could monopolize the whole thing. 478 00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:11,080 Speaker 2: Rudely, Paul, what she just said, folks, position sizing is 479 00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:15,240 Speaker 2: the single most important thing. 480 00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:16,720 Speaker 3: Silence. 481 00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:19,479 Speaker 5: Okay, Paul, fixed coming, you say you kind of threw 482 00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:21,479 Speaker 5: up your hands with fixed income. Why is that? 483 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:22,000 Speaker 10: So? 484 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,440 Speaker 9: Fixed income has been even though there's been a lot 485 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:27,000 Speaker 9: of talk about it. If you look at the trend signals, 486 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:29,480 Speaker 9: they're very range bound and you've seen sort of long 487 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:33,159 Speaker 9: short But we've actually started to see more momentum in 488 00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:35,679 Speaker 9: fixed income on the long side over the last two months, 489 00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:39,640 Speaker 9: especially going into the first rate cut. So I think 490 00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,280 Speaker 9: for me, that's going to be an asset class that 491 00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:46,320 Speaker 9: could have trend potential. And this week was particularly confusing 492 00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:49,080 Speaker 9: because you also saw yields going up on good growth data. 493 00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 9: So the question is could you have steepening of the 494 00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:52,919 Speaker 9: yield curve? We love things like that. 495 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:56,400 Speaker 2: Are you watching Tiger's Red Sox from Miracle Science? 496 00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:59,920 Speaker 3: The bar perhal gives back in time to see the game? 497 00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:02,440 Speaker 9: I have to admit I live right by Fenway Park, 498 00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:03,560 Speaker 9: so I should probably head. 499 00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:04,000 Speaker 3: Really. 500 00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:07,000 Speaker 2: Somebody said on Twitter we should do a remote from 501 00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:07,880 Speaker 2: caskin Flaggan. 502 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,159 Speaker 5: Sure it would be great, Absolutely, Rip. 503 00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 2: It's exciting isn't it? Katie Kimiski in studio in New York. 504 00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:17,040 Speaker 2: She'll be back at Boston or Doubt for the festivities 505 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:21,200 Speaker 2: this weekend. She's with Alpha Simplex. Stay with us. More 506 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:31,320 Speaker 2: from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 507 00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:35,199 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 508 00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:38,240 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android 509 00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:41,320 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 510 00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:44,680 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 511 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,840 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 512 00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:49,480 Speaker 2: We're gonna do this right now. We're gonna get right 513 00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:53,960 Speaker 2: to it with Tannebaum. Daniel Tannebaum's partner and global anti 514 00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:59,080 Speaker 2: financial crime practice leader at Oliver Wyman. He's brilliant on sanctions. 515 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:00,600 Speaker 3: Five from now. 516 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,879 Speaker 2: We are four years into a Ukraine war. So it 517 00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,760 Speaker 2: takes a while for fancy people like at Oliver Wyman 518 00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,600 Speaker 2: to get together and say do this, do this, do this. 519 00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:18,000 Speaker 2: There's a laundry list China, India, Israel, Turkey, UAE that 520 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:23,120 Speaker 2: are basically helping Russia by taking their oil, their product, 521 00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:25,360 Speaker 2: giving them stuff, taking stuff in that. 522 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:30,240 Speaker 3: What is Europe waiting for four years into Ukraine. 523 00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:32,920 Speaker 10: It's not just Europe. You've also got to remember the 524 00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:37,560 Speaker 10: Trump administration has done literally nothing in terms of actual 525 00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,760 Speaker 10: economic pressure on Russia. It's been like a perpetual state 526 00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:45,760 Speaker 10: of Ted Knight standing at the tee screaming, well, we're waiting. 527 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:47,840 Speaker 10: There have been no actions. It's been a lot of 528 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,760 Speaker 10: idle threats. Europe has already had a plan to wean 529 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:54,440 Speaker 10: itself off of Russian energy. They've already offered to expedite 530 00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:57,679 Speaker 10: that by year. The whole reason why these sanctions have 531 00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:00,000 Speaker 10: evolved the way they were was to not cut off 532 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 10: our nose despite our face. It's the reason the Biden 533 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,480 Speaker 10: administration didn't push too hard in the last time in 534 00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:08,960 Speaker 10: the last term, because they knew that Europe couldn't immediately 535 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:11,480 Speaker 10: go to zero, and so that they are going now. 536 00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:15,160 Speaker 10: They can Now they can on an expedited timeline. 537 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:16,119 Speaker 3: It could mean. 538 00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:19,879 Speaker 10: Increased prices, but there's still action the US needs to 539 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:23,680 Speaker 10: take as well. There's really been a bifurcated effort over 540 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:28,240 Speaker 10: the last nine months, whereas previously the UK, EU and 541 00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:32,960 Speaker 10: US were lockstep in line for three years and just looking. 542 00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:34,840 Speaker 5: At or listening to some of the comments from President 543 00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:38,040 Speaker 5: Trump at the United Nations just this week. It seems 544 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,600 Speaker 5: like for Ukraine and for the Middle East, of presidents 545 00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:45,000 Speaker 5: almost like what you know, wiping his hands and saying, you, guys, 546 00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:46,360 Speaker 5: deal with it well. 547 00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:50,399 Speaker 10: His rhetoric has been as aggressively supportive for Ukraine at 548 00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:52,919 Speaker 10: any point in this term. He's also setting himself up 549 00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,040 Speaker 10: to say, well, I told everyone what to do to 550 00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,440 Speaker 10: end this conflict. They didn't do it, So this isn't 551 00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:00,440 Speaker 10: my fault. Like that is where this is ultimately. 552 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:03,120 Speaker 3: Grizzled pros like you like say, okay, where's the. 553 00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,879 Speaker 2: Senate, where's the House? Or is the sanctions world a 554 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:07,800 Speaker 2: very executive branch dominant. 555 00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,680 Speaker 10: No, the legislative branch had a role. In twenty seventeen, 556 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:14,680 Speaker 10: the Senate passed katsa that went on against the president's 557 00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:16,919 Speaker 10: wishes at the time. I've spoken with some of the 558 00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:20,520 Speaker 10: Senators that are involved in crafting the legislation. It's been 559 00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:23,320 Speaker 10: basically written in a way that gives the president card blanche. 560 00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:26,360 Speaker 10: The Senate will not move on this without the President, 561 00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:28,720 Speaker 10: and that is unfortunate because they have a role to 562 00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:29,280 Speaker 10: play here. 563 00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:33,200 Speaker 5: So how do we think about some of these hotspots 564 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,800 Speaker 5: in the world the Middle East, Ukraine. Is it simply 565 00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:40,320 Speaker 5: at whoever gets into the President's ear at last, that's 566 00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:43,240 Speaker 5: what comes out on truth social social or is there 567 00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:48,040 Speaker 5: a state department driven diplomatic plan for either of these places. 568 00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,640 Speaker 10: What I know is that a lot of the Russia experts, 569 00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:54,320 Speaker 10: for instance, are gone that were career or civil servants. 570 00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:57,120 Speaker 10: There isn't as much depth as there once was. I 571 00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,240 Speaker 10: can't say whether whoever is the last person and the 572 00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:03,720 Speaker 10: president's ear is driving this, but it is unclear what 573 00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:08,840 Speaker 10: tangible actions will be taken to actually execute against this 574 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:12,000 Speaker 10: disappointment that we keep hearing about in public remarks. 575 00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:14,760 Speaker 2: What are you thinking about this weekend? I mean your 576 00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:18,480 Speaker 2: remit at Oliver Wyman is so broad. What is Dan 577 00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:23,520 Speaker 2: Tannebau'm studying this weekend in this dynamic sanction. 578 00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:26,000 Speaker 10: Well, so I'm actually going to Brussels on Sunday to 579 00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:28,440 Speaker 10: speak on a public event that Bloomberg is the media 580 00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:33,680 Speaker 10: sponsor for with the EU ambassador responsible for their sanctions policy, 581 00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:37,000 Speaker 10: and we're talking about our sanctions effective. And I think 582 00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:40,400 Speaker 10: the question is they've certainly had impact, but Russia's a 583 00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:41,080 Speaker 10: big economy. 584 00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:43,320 Speaker 3: It takes time. There's more that needs to be done. 585 00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:46,440 Speaker 2: Okay, does sanctions come out of Brussels or do they 586 00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:50,080 Speaker 2: come out of Paris, Berlin, bunn wherever do they come 587 00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:50,320 Speaker 2: out of. 588 00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,400 Speaker 10: The individual Brussels is trying to align everyone, and the 589 00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:56,680 Speaker 10: work towards the Nineteenth Package in the EU is well underway. 590 00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:00,640 Speaker 10: That is that move towards expediting getting off Ussian energy. 591 00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,040 Speaker 10: It's where the discussions around what to do with the 592 00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:07,120 Speaker 10: immobilized Russian assets about two hundred billion dollars reside in 593 00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:09,280 Speaker 10: Europe and you're seeing a lot more talk of actually 594 00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:11,560 Speaker 10: putting those on the table to do something with which 595 00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:12,520 Speaker 10: will make a difference. 596 00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:14,080 Speaker 3: Are you taking missus Tannebau. 597 00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:15,680 Speaker 10: She does not want to come. 598 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:19,800 Speaker 3: There's a gauntlet of stores in Brussel. Russell's you wouldn't 599 00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:21,360 Speaker 3: believe it. I didn't know. 600 00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:26,840 Speaker 10: This, but it's dangerous. She declined the invitation. Russell's this 601 00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:30,760 Speaker 10: shine very good. I'm shocked. Thank you so much for 602 00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:31,840 Speaker 10: Bloomberg and Brussels. 603 00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:35,320 Speaker 2: Next week he is with Oliver Wyman and we thank 604 00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:37,920 Speaker 2: him for his efforts. 605 00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:39,360 Speaker 3: Stay with us. 606 00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:50,000 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 607 00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:53,920 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday 608 00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:57,360 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 609 00:30:57,400 --> 00:31:00,280 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us 610 00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:04,040 Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminals. 611 00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:06,480 Speaker 2: The newer are for us on the newspapers. Lisa Mintello 612 00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,480 Speaker 2: now with our most popular segment. 613 00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:12,320 Speaker 8: Oh goodness, all right, the pressure's on. So this is 614 00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:14,560 Speaker 8: a topic we've actually been talking about this morning. It's 615 00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:17,640 Speaker 8: the big spending on AI and when it's going to 616 00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:20,320 Speaker 8: pay off. A couple of publications had stories about this, 617 00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:22,280 Speaker 8: so Bloomberg crunts the numbers. So I want to give 618 00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,560 Speaker 8: it to you. Tech giants raise roughly one hundred and 619 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,520 Speaker 8: fifty seven billion dollars so far this year, and that's 620 00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:31,800 Speaker 8: up for about seventy percent from the same period last year. 621 00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,720 Speaker 8: Some are saying, you know what, maybe the hype is overblown. 622 00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:37,800 Speaker 8: They're giving like similar, you know, comparisons to the dot 623 00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:41,520 Speaker 8: com bubble you had. Head fund manager David Einhorney warns 624 00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,160 Speaker 8: that the spending spree could lead to a quote tremendous 625 00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:48,880 Speaker 8: capital destruction even if the technology proves transformative. So you 626 00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,520 Speaker 8: get to the Wall Street Journal. They talked to Bane consultants. 627 00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:54,320 Speaker 8: They estimated the wave of AI infrastructure spending is going 628 00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:58,200 Speaker 8: to require two trillion dollars in annual AI revenue by 629 00:31:58,200 --> 00:31:59,000 Speaker 8: twenty thirty. 630 00:31:59,280 --> 00:31:59,840 Speaker 5: That's how much. 631 00:31:59,880 --> 00:32:03,920 Speaker 8: So how much revenue is there now? Morgan Stanley says 632 00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:06,640 Speaker 8: that last year there was there was around forty five 633 00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:08,800 Speaker 8: billion of revenue for AI products. 634 00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:10,600 Speaker 3: So you see the big difference there. 635 00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:12,959 Speaker 8: I mean it's a mix of subscription fees, right, we 636 00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:15,520 Speaker 8: were talking about that for the chatbots, money paid to 637 00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:18,240 Speaker 8: these companies, data centers, things like that. But it's that 638 00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:19,120 Speaker 8: big gap. 639 00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:22,240 Speaker 5: I think this is a great article because it hits 640 00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:24,920 Speaker 5: home to me. You know, you got to start questioning 641 00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:28,040 Speaker 5: some of the stuff. But you know, they say that 642 00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:31,080 Speaker 5: I just have to wait and see it, you know, 643 00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:34,320 Speaker 5: come to fruition and products and services from I don't know, 644 00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:36,920 Speaker 5: companies far and wide. I guess it's going to happen, 645 00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:38,280 Speaker 5: but wow, it. 646 00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:40,120 Speaker 8: Better is it's going to be a wait and see. 647 00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:42,360 Speaker 8: All right, this one, this one's here for you. Paul Okay. 648 00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:45,000 Speaker 8: Bruce Springsteen on the cover of Time magazine. 649 00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:45,880 Speaker 3: All right, miss. 650 00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:48,040 Speaker 8: Yes, okay, so he talks about a lot of rest. 651 00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:51,480 Speaker 5: Yes, there's still Time magazine. Yes that's the point. 652 00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,680 Speaker 8: That's okay, Yes, there you go. He talked about fame, 653 00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,800 Speaker 8: family therapy, like touring with the Street Band. Also the 654 00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:00,440 Speaker 8: fifteenth anivirtuary of the Board to Run album. Okay, but 655 00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:03,680 Speaker 8: the issue actually five oh five oh yeah, and the 656 00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:06,720 Speaker 8: issue actually comes almost exactly fifty years after he was 657 00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:09,320 Speaker 8: first on Time magazine, So it's kind of like this 658 00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:12,920 Speaker 8: this full circle moment. But the big quotes talked about 659 00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,800 Speaker 8: President Trump, which he's talked about before. They've been exchanging 660 00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:18,320 Speaker 8: bars back and forth. He said a lot of things 661 00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:20,040 Speaker 8: about him, you know, he said a lot of people 662 00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:22,600 Speaker 8: brought into the president's lies as the President doesn't care 663 00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:26,560 Speaker 8: about the forgotten. He also though, poked at the Democratic 664 00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:28,920 Speaker 8: Party though at the same time, and he said that 665 00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:31,880 Speaker 8: they need an effective alternative party or the Democratic Party 666 00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:33,880 Speaker 8: has to like find someone who can speak to the 667 00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:36,400 Speaker 8: majority of the nation. So he really really I just 668 00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:37,360 Speaker 8: said out, yeah. 669 00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:40,000 Speaker 3: There's a lot of people doing fossil rock. He's not. 670 00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:43,680 Speaker 5: He's been more prolific in the last ten or fifteen 671 00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:47,200 Speaker 5: years and in his entire career, and that includes the pandemic. 672 00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:50,800 Speaker 5: The guy and he's on tour all with James Taylor. 673 00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,880 Speaker 2: These guys are older, but they're not they're not. It's 674 00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:56,640 Speaker 2: done fossil rock in any way, No, it's great. 675 00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:57,120 Speaker 7: What else? 676 00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:58,200 Speaker 3: Yeah? Are you done? Okay? 677 00:33:58,280 --> 00:33:59,120 Speaker 5: No? 678 00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:05,640 Speaker 8: No, NBC Universal, Right, they're continuing negotiations with YouTube TV. 679 00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:09,680 Speaker 8: They're battling over pricing for NBC's programming. Right, So last 680 00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:14,760 Speaker 8: night NBC Universal launched this digital attack ad at YouTube PV. 681 00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:18,440 Speaker 8: So they warned customers, they said, YouTube TV to YouTube 682 00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:20,760 Speaker 8: TV that they could lose access to things like Sunday 683 00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:26,320 Speaker 8: Night Football, NBA basketball, WWE Wrestling, Premier League, and also yes, 684 00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:30,000 Speaker 8: the Real Housewives, Sorry about that, but they also threaten 685 00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:32,560 Speaker 8: a blackout, right if an agreement is not paged by 686 00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:33,200 Speaker 8: next Tuesday. 687 00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:37,640 Speaker 5: Isn't this cable tv exactly exactly exactly right, And so 688 00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:39,879 Speaker 5: this is just trying to get paid as much as 689 00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:41,839 Speaker 5: you can for your programming. They'll come to a deal 690 00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:43,440 Speaker 5: at the last minute. But then, but this is a 691 00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:46,880 Speaker 5: little bit different because YouTube is a lot bigger than 692 00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:51,120 Speaker 5: Comcast ever was, and they have so much more leverage. 693 00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:53,520 Speaker 5: So it's not going to be as easy for NBC 694 00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:56,080 Speaker 5: Universal here going against YouTube. But they'll come to a deal. 695 00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:57,480 Speaker 8: And then you mix the peacock in with it. 696 00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:00,640 Speaker 5: Yes, it's treating. It's all about the sport. You notice 697 00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:03,400 Speaker 5: that Universal led with the sports NFL. You know, so 698 00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:06,640 Speaker 5: share you showtime and your show and your YouTube YouTube TV. 699 00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:10,120 Speaker 5: You need the sports you do all right? Very good 700 00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:14,640 Speaker 5: newspapers with news about Friday Friday versions. That's good. 701 00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:19,799 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 702 00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:24,200 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 703 00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:27,799 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 704 00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:31,920 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 705 00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:35,319 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 706 00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:37,240 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal