WEBVTT - The Beginning Of The Beginning:  Mike Lyons Talks to A&G

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<v Speaker 1>People have just been told leave by any means possible.

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<v Speaker 1>There are just over two million people in the Gaza strip.

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<v Speaker 1>It is broken up into roughly too heavily populated areas,

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<v Speaker 1>the north with Gaza City, and then in the south.

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<v Speaker 1>And what Israel has done at han unis in the south,

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<v Speaker 1>and what Israel has said, everyone should leave the north,

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<v Speaker 1>evacuate Gaza City, evacuate an entire city of a million people,

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<v Speaker 1>and get in their cars, get in donkey carts. And

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<v Speaker 1>there are still donkey carts in use in Gaza, and

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<v Speaker 1>move south, moved below the Wadi Gaza Valley.

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<v Speaker 2>That's the biggest news overnight, Israel saying, hey, you in

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<v Speaker 2>the north, move south. And I assume that means the

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<v Speaker 2>ground war is about to start.

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<v Speaker 3>Major Mike Clons served the United States military in a

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<v Speaker 3>number of capacities around the world. He has now respected

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<v Speaker 3>military analysts for CNN, among others. Mike's always a pleasure.

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<v Speaker 4>How are you take one of guys great to be

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<v Speaker 4>with you?

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<v Speaker 3>So I think it goes without saying that the fighting

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<v Speaker 3>in Gaza, when it does commence, is going to be

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<v Speaker 3>difficult to watch and difficult to execute. What should we expect.

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<v Speaker 4>Let's hope there's not a lot of video coming from it. Frankly,

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<v Speaker 4>if they've shut down the Internet and everything coming, because

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<v Speaker 4>it's going to be exactly that, you know, a concrete jungle.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm still not quite sure this is as imminent as

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<v Speaker 4>people think home because these defensive positions have been prepared.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, this has been a wrong plan that they've

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<v Speaker 4>had here, and I think Israel's going to still look

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<v Speaker 4>to protect their force. That's going to be very important

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<v Speaker 4>for them. So I don't know. You know, the thing is,

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<v Speaker 4>you do you run all the traps on all the

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<v Speaker 4>different courses of action that happen here, and is this

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<v Speaker 4>the time that we're going to kind of change this

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<v Speaker 4>cycle of what happens of war in the Middle East,

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<v Speaker 4>And that is it's just gonna win. They're going to

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<v Speaker 4>go in there and they're going to flatten things and

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<v Speaker 4>level things, are gonna kill thousands of civilians, and at

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<v Speaker 4>some point the West says enough's enough and Israel's forced

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<v Speaker 4>to stop and Hamasco's you know, back to their holes,

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<v Speaker 4>and then in the next three or four years they

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<v Speaker 4>regroup and they do the same thing all over and

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<v Speaker 4>over again. So I personally think though Israel's had enough,

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<v Speaker 4>and I think you heard their chief of staff say

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<v Speaker 4>it's time for war. So I think I don't think

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<v Speaker 4>they're going to stop this time. I think there's a

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<v Speaker 4>lot more things to go, and I think we're at

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<v Speaker 4>the beginning of the beginning, so to speak.

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<v Speaker 2>So in other words, you think Israel, even with lots

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<v Speaker 2>of collateral damage, you said earlier this week, it's going

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<v Speaker 2>to be the worst we've seen this century, probably with

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<v Speaker 2>lots of collateral damage, they're just going to keep going

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<v Speaker 2>until they've wiped out Homas. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, And they're gonna they're gonna take over. Likely they're

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<v Speaker 4>going to cut the Gods Strip in half and they're

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<v Speaker 4>going to occupy the northern portion of it, and they'll

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<v Speaker 4>set up another border between north and the northern port

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<v Speaker 4>of Gaza and the southern portion. And I mean, look,

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<v Speaker 4>we're the Arab nations helping these Palestinian refugees. Where are

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<v Speaker 4>the Egypt has closed their border. They're pretty smart. We

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<v Speaker 4>should be that smart close our border, right. They're not

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<v Speaker 4>letting these people into their country, why because they know

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<v Speaker 4>they would come in and disrupt what's going on there.

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<v Speaker 4>No other Arab countries are taking these refugees. Israel needs

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<v Speaker 4>an ally. They don't have anybody on the Arab side

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<v Speaker 4>to do this. And here's the United States now, and

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<v Speaker 4>I still look to the north. There's a Washington Post

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<v Speaker 4>as an article that says the United States intelligence agencies

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<v Speaker 4>thinks that are war and the North is unlikely, which

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<v Speaker 4>is called for it's likely, right. I mean, those guys

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<v Speaker 4>have not been very good at predicting what's actually going

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<v Speaker 4>to happen. And if you're Hesbla, you're looking at Israel saying,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, you guys are over stretched right now. If

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<v Speaker 4>you're going to commit all these forces to the south,

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<v Speaker 4>I got to think they're not going to put thre

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<v Speaker 4>hundred forces to twe undred thousand soldiers down there. That

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<v Speaker 4>just doesn't make any sense. But now now the time,

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<v Speaker 4>Israel is vulnerable. So if it's time for war, HEAs

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<v Speaker 4>block to say, you know what, let's go. Here we go.

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<v Speaker 4>So they're marched to Tel Aviv from the north, and

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<v Speaker 4>now it's Juel's got this two front war. So and

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<v Speaker 4>then what's the US doing? Did the US then go

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<v Speaker 4>after are we in? And now too are we going

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<v Speaker 4>to start attacking from there? So there's so many tipping

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<v Speaker 4>points still to happen here.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I have a quick observation, then a question on

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<v Speaker 3>that tech I saw comparing contrast the gates. The security

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<v Speaker 3>apparatus of the gate out of Gaza into Egypt contrasted

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<v Speaker 3>with that into Israel, and the one into Egypt is

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<v Speaker 3>much more secure and fortifying. The Egyptians are serious about

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<v Speaker 3>not let adding hamask guys into their country, no matter

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<v Speaker 3>what it takes. So as usual, the Arab world yells

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<v Speaker 3>and beats their chest, then does nothing for the Palestinians.

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<v Speaker 3>But I was going to observe that the Biden administration, Well,

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<v Speaker 3>the United States military is moving various hardware from ships

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<v Speaker 3>to planes much closer in the region. Is that merre

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<v Speaker 3>gesturing Mike, or might we use that hardware?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, the hardware is right now. It's going to be

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<v Speaker 4>air support. We won't put troops on the ground. But

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<v Speaker 4>you know we've got that Navy, the carrier group that's there.

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<v Speaker 4>There's a lot of combat power that's there. I think

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<v Speaker 4>that's what we would do if something does come from

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<v Speaker 4>the north to protect Israel, and then does it open

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<v Speaker 4>up an avenue to attack into Iran. I think you know,

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<v Speaker 4>Israel is not going to let Iran get away with

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<v Speaker 4>this anymore. I think they're going to go after their

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<v Speaker 4>capability to manufacture oil and petroleum and drill, and then

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<v Speaker 4>as well as they're going after those, their nuclear capabilities

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<v Speaker 4>just a matter of time. They did it in the Rock,

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<v Speaker 4>they hit it in Syria, and the second we think

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<v Speaker 4>we've talked about, the second they know that they have

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<v Speaker 4>that capability, they're going to go after it. I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>and all these everything has been done in the past

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<v Speaker 4>to kick the can down the road. I think the

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<v Speaker 4>can is here now. I think this might happen. I

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<v Speaker 4>think is right. I think we're ready to go.

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<v Speaker 2>So given all that and where this is likely headed,

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<v Speaker 2>why wouldn't now be the best time for China to

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<v Speaker 2>move on Taiwan that's ever gonna come with us as

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<v Speaker 2>involved as we are with supplying Ukraine, and we might

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<v Speaker 2>actually be involved in this situation in the Middle least,

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<v Speaker 2>and a senile old president my words, not yours.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, it could be. It could be that as well.

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<v Speaker 4>It depends on what they're looking at. I mean, they

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<v Speaker 4>still want shipping lanes open, you know, they're they're they've

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<v Speaker 4>got their own internal problems themselves, and all these countries

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<v Speaker 4>now that are aggressive. Countries are making these calculated risks

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<v Speaker 4>as to what they should do. I mean, like I said,

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<v Speaker 4>Lebanon has blown the north of Chinese into i Wan.

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<v Speaker 4>Russia already made their commitment last year. They thought it

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<v Speaker 4>would be over by now. They thought they'd be you know,

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<v Speaker 4>having coffee in Kiev by now. But that's just as

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<v Speaker 4>it happened. So you know, these are the decisions that

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<v Speaker 4>countries make when they go to war as an extension

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<v Speaker 4>of foreign posts, right, because that's really what this is.

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<v Speaker 4>When when Israel said we're going to war, everything's changed

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<v Speaker 4>that you know, that means that that there's an extension

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<v Speaker 4>of foreign policy. They can use their military or accomplish

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<v Speaker 4>what they what they want to do. And then the

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<v Speaker 4>Second World I think we talked about a siege. The

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<v Speaker 4>word siege means pretty clear things. To a military guy,

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<v Speaker 4>it means everything's going.

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<v Speaker 3>Mike Lyon's military analyst on the line. Mike, back to

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<v Speaker 3>the Middle East. What should we know about the capability

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<v Speaker 3>of the hesbalav forces or Lebanon. Is the Lebanese government

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<v Speaker 3>in bed with Hewela? Are they frenemies? How does that

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<v Speaker 3>all work?

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<v Speaker 4>Yes, they they've got more capability than Hamastas, more anti tank,

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<v Speaker 4>more fighters, more experienced fighters. I think it potentially draws

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<v Speaker 4>the Syrian military, whatever's left of that into this. I

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<v Speaker 4>think the mask becomes a target. I think Asad is

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<v Speaker 4>going to be targeted then too. It's back. It's literally

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<v Speaker 4>nineteen seventy three, it's just fifty years later. Can't gets

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<v Speaker 4>kicked down the road. I think that they've got more

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<v Speaker 4>capability and that's why Israel cannot sleep. And I know

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<v Speaker 4>there's somebody in the room there saying that to bebing

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<v Speaker 4>Net and Yahoo. Is that if we're going to put

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<v Speaker 4>one hundred thousand, if we're going to put one hundred

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<v Speaker 4>thousand troops or two hundredousand troops in the south, we've

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<v Speaker 4>got to put another couple of hundred thousand up north

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<v Speaker 4>because that really could go fast and it would be

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<v Speaker 4>the same, literally, the same thing that happened back in

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<v Speaker 4>seventy three. They'd get to the goal and heights and

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<v Speaker 4>then just because of poor military operations on the other side,

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<v Speaker 4>they won. That wouldn't happen now. Hamas has got much

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<v Speaker 4>better a military fighters, much more capability than was in

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<v Speaker 4>nineteen seventy three.

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<v Speaker 2>Do we have the ability to continue to supply Ukraine

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<v Speaker 2>the way we are and promise Israel that their iron

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<v Speaker 2>dome won't run short and all these different things. Can

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<v Speaker 2>we do all that?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, it's funny said two different weapons systems. Rather, the

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<v Speaker 4>Ukraine military needs one five to five ammunition, which we've

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<v Speaker 4>pretty much in the last year now increased our capacity

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<v Speaker 4>to manufacture. That's still nuts to where they need it.

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<v Speaker 4>We still aren't getting it from a lot of different places,

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<v Speaker 4>but that's what they need. One five to five rounds.

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<v Speaker 4>Israel is going to need small arms fire seven point

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<v Speaker 4>sixty two rounds as well as the Tamiir rockets. Those

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<v Speaker 4>are made by Raythion. Here they still have about thirty

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<v Speaker 4>to thirty five thousand rockets inside of the Gaza Strip someplace.

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<v Speaker 4>So that's what the military is going after right now.

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<v Speaker 4>But they still have capacity. And here it is day

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<v Speaker 4>six and Hamas is still firing rockets into Israel. It

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<v Speaker 4>shows you they have capability and that so what Israel

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<v Speaker 4>needs is those Tamio rockets.

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<v Speaker 3>Mike Lyons. I think the quote of the interview Mike

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<v Speaker 3>is we're at the beginning of the beginning, so we

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<v Speaker 3>sure appreciate the thoughts and the perspective. Good to talk

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<v Speaker 3>to you.

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<v Speaker 4>Thanks guys, thanks for me every weekend. Armstrong and Getty