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Speaker 1: People have just been told leave by any means possible.

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Speaker 1: There are just over two million people in the Gaza strip.

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Speaker 1: It is broken up into roughly too heavily populated areas,

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Speaker 1: the north with Gaza City, and then in the south.

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Speaker 1: And what Israel has done at han unis in the south,

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Speaker 1: and what Israel has said, everyone should leave the north,

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Speaker 1: evacuate Gaza City, evacuate an entire city of a million people,

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Speaker 1: and get in their cars, get in donkey carts. And

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Speaker 1: there are still donkey carts in use in Gaza, and

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Speaker 1: move south, moved below the Wadi Gaza Valley.

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Speaker 2: That's the biggest news overnight, Israel saying, hey, you in

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Speaker 2: the north, move south. And I assume that means the

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Speaker 2: ground war is about to start.

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Speaker 3: Major Mike Clons served the United States military in a

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Speaker 3: number of capacities around the world. He has now respected

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Speaker 3: military analysts for CNN, among others. Mike's always a pleasure.

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Speaker 4: How are you take one of guys great to be

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Speaker 4: with you?

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Speaker 3: So I think it goes without saying that the fighting

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Speaker 3: in Gaza, when it does commence, is going to be

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Speaker 3: difficult to watch and difficult to execute. What should we expect.

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Speaker 4: Let's hope there's not a lot of video coming from it. Frankly,

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Speaker 4: if they've shut down the Internet and everything coming, because

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Speaker 4: it's going to be exactly that, you know, a concrete jungle.

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Speaker 4: I'm still not quite sure this is as imminent as

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Speaker 4: people think home because these defensive positions have been prepared.

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Speaker 4: You know, this has been a wrong plan that they've

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Speaker 4: had here, and I think Israel's going to still look

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Speaker 4: to protect their force. That's going to be very important

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Speaker 4: for them. So I don't know. You know, the thing is,

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Speaker 4: you do you run all the traps on all the

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Speaker 4: different courses of action that happen here, and is this

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Speaker 4: the time that we're going to kind of change this

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Speaker 4: cycle of what happens of war in the Middle East,

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Speaker 4: And that is it's just gonna win. They're going to

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Speaker 4: go in there and they're going to flatten things and

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Speaker 4: level things, are gonna kill thousands of civilians, and at

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Speaker 4: some point the West says enough's enough and Israel's forced

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Speaker 4: to stop and Hamasco's you know, back to their holes,

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Speaker 4: and then in the next three or four years they

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Speaker 4: regroup and they do the same thing all over and

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Speaker 4: over again. So I personally think though Israel's had enough,

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Speaker 4: and I think you heard their chief of staff say

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Speaker 4: it's time for war. So I think I don't think

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Speaker 4: they're going to stop this time. I think there's a

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Speaker 4: lot more things to go, and I think we're at

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Speaker 4: the beginning of the beginning, so to speak.

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Speaker 2: So in other words, you think Israel, even with lots

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Speaker 2: of collateral damage, you said earlier this week, it's going

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Speaker 2: to be the worst we've seen this century, probably with

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Speaker 2: lots of collateral damage, they're just going to keep going

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Speaker 2: until they've wiped out Homas. Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And they're gonna they're gonna take over. Likely they're

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Speaker 4: going to cut the Gods Strip in half and they're

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Speaker 4: going to occupy the northern portion of it, and they'll

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Speaker 4: set up another border between north and the northern port

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Speaker 4: of Gaza and the southern portion. And I mean, look,

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Speaker 4: we're the Arab nations helping these Palestinian refugees. Where are

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Speaker 4: the Egypt has closed their border. They're pretty smart. We

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Speaker 4: should be that smart close our border, right. They're not

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Speaker 4: letting these people into their country, why because they know

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Speaker 4: they would come in and disrupt what's going on there.

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Speaker 4: No other Arab countries are taking these refugees. Israel needs

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Speaker 4: an ally. They don't have anybody on the Arab side

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Speaker 4: to do this. And here's the United States now, and

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Speaker 4: I still look to the north. There's a Washington Post

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Speaker 4: as an article that says the United States intelligence agencies

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Speaker 4: thinks that are war and the North is unlikely, which

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Speaker 4: is called for it's likely, right. I mean, those guys

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Speaker 4: have not been very good at predicting what's actually going

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Speaker 4: to happen. And if you're Hesbla, you're looking at Israel saying,

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Speaker 4: you know, you guys are over stretched right now. If

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Speaker 4: you're going to commit all these forces to the south,

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Speaker 4: I got to think they're not going to put thre

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Speaker 4: hundred forces to twe undred thousand soldiers down there. That

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Speaker 4: just doesn't make any sense. But now now the time,

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Speaker 4: Israel is vulnerable. So if it's time for war, HEAs

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Speaker 4: block to say, you know what, let's go. Here we go.

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Speaker 4: So they're marched to Tel Aviv from the north, and

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Speaker 4: now it's Juel's got this two front war. So and

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Speaker 4: then what's the US doing? Did the US then go

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Speaker 4: after are we in? And now too are we going

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Speaker 4: to start attacking from there? So there's so many tipping

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Speaker 4: points still to happen here.

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Speaker 3: Well, I have a quick observation, then a question on

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Speaker 3: that tech I saw comparing contrast the gates. The security

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Speaker 3: apparatus of the gate out of Gaza into Egypt contrasted

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Speaker 3: with that into Israel, and the one into Egypt is

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Speaker 3: much more secure and fortifying. The Egyptians are serious about

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Speaker 3: not let adding hamask guys into their country, no matter

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Speaker 3: what it takes. So as usual, the Arab world yells

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Speaker 3: and beats their chest, then does nothing for the Palestinians.

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Speaker 3: But I was going to observe that the Biden administration, Well,

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Speaker 3: the United States military is moving various hardware from ships

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Speaker 3: to planes much closer in the region. Is that merre

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Speaker 3: gesturing Mike, or might we use that hardware?

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Speaker 4: Well, the hardware is right now. It's going to be

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Speaker 4: air support. We won't put troops on the ground. But

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Speaker 4: you know we've got that Navy, the carrier group that's there.

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Speaker 4: There's a lot of combat power that's there. I think

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Speaker 4: that's what we would do if something does come from

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Speaker 4: the north to protect Israel, and then does it open

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Speaker 4: up an avenue to attack into Iran. I think you know,

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Speaker 4: Israel is not going to let Iran get away with

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Speaker 4: this anymore. I think they're going to go after their

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Speaker 4: capability to manufacture oil and petroleum and drill, and then

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Speaker 4: as well as they're going after those, their nuclear capabilities

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Speaker 4: just a matter of time. They did it in the Rock,

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Speaker 4: they hit it in Syria, and the second we think

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Speaker 4: we've talked about, the second they know that they have

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Speaker 4: that capability, they're going to go after it. I mean,

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Speaker 4: and all these everything has been done in the past

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Speaker 4: to kick the can down the road. I think the

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Speaker 4: can is here now. I think this might happen. I

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Speaker 4: think is right. I think we're ready to go.

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Speaker 2: So given all that and where this is likely headed,

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Speaker 2: why wouldn't now be the best time for China to

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Speaker 2: move on Taiwan that's ever gonna come with us as

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Speaker 2: involved as we are with supplying Ukraine, and we might

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Speaker 2: actually be involved in this situation in the Middle least,

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Speaker 2: and a senile old president my words, not yours.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it could be. It could be that as well.

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Speaker 4: It depends on what they're looking at. I mean, they

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Speaker 4: still want shipping lanes open, you know, they're they're they've

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Speaker 4: got their own internal problems themselves, and all these countries

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Speaker 4: now that are aggressive. Countries are making these calculated risks

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Speaker 4: as to what they should do. I mean, like I said,

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Speaker 4: Lebanon has blown the north of Chinese into i Wan.

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Speaker 4: Russia already made their commitment last year. They thought it

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Speaker 4: would be over by now. They thought they'd be you know,

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Speaker 4: having coffee in Kiev by now. But that's just as

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Speaker 4: it happened. So you know, these are the decisions that

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Speaker 4: countries make when they go to war as an extension

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Speaker 4: of foreign posts, right, because that's really what this is.

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Speaker 4: When when Israel said we're going to war, everything's changed

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Speaker 4: that you know, that means that that there's an extension

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Speaker 4: of foreign policy. They can use their military or accomplish

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Speaker 4: what they what they want to do. And then the

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Speaker 4: Second World I think we talked about a siege. The

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Speaker 4: word siege means pretty clear things. To a military guy,

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Speaker 4: it means everything's going.

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Speaker 3: Mike Lyon's military analyst on the line. Mike, back to

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Speaker 3: the Middle East. What should we know about the capability

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Speaker 3: of the hesbalav forces or Lebanon. Is the Lebanese government

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Speaker 3: in bed with Hewela? Are they frenemies? How does that

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Speaker 3: all work?

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Speaker 4: Yes, they they've got more capability than Hamastas, more anti tank,

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Speaker 4: more fighters, more experienced fighters. I think it potentially draws

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Speaker 4: the Syrian military, whatever's left of that into this. I

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Speaker 4: think the mask becomes a target. I think Asad is

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Speaker 4: going to be targeted then too. It's back. It's literally

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Speaker 4: nineteen seventy three, it's just fifty years later. Can't gets

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Speaker 4: kicked down the road. I think that they've got more

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Speaker 4: capability and that's why Israel cannot sleep. And I know

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Speaker 4: there's somebody in the room there saying that to bebing

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Speaker 4: Net and Yahoo. Is that if we're going to put

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Speaker 4: one hundred thousand, if we're going to put one hundred

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Speaker 4: thousand troops or two hundredousand troops in the south, we've

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Speaker 4: got to put another couple of hundred thousand up north

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Speaker 4: because that really could go fast and it would be

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Speaker 4: the same, literally, the same thing that happened back in

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Speaker 4: seventy three. They'd get to the goal and heights and

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Speaker 4: then just because of poor military operations on the other side,

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Speaker 4: they won. That wouldn't happen now. Hamas has got much

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Speaker 4: better a military fighters, much more capability than was in

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Speaker 4: nineteen seventy three.

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Speaker 2: Do we have the ability to continue to supply Ukraine

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Speaker 2: the way we are and promise Israel that their iron

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Speaker 2: dome won't run short and all these different things. Can

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Speaker 2: we do all that?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's funny said two different weapons systems. Rather, the

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Speaker 4: Ukraine military needs one five to five ammunition, which we've

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Speaker 4: pretty much in the last year now increased our capacity

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Speaker 4: to manufacture. That's still nuts to where they need it.

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Speaker 4: We still aren't getting it from a lot of different places,

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Speaker 4: but that's what they need. One five to five rounds.

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Speaker 4: Israel is going to need small arms fire seven point

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Speaker 4: sixty two rounds as well as the Tamiir rockets. Those

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Speaker 4: are made by Raythion. Here they still have about thirty

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Speaker 4: to thirty five thousand rockets inside of the Gaza Strip someplace.

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Speaker 4: So that's what the military is going after right now.

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Speaker 4: But they still have capacity. And here it is day

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Speaker 4: six and Hamas is still firing rockets into Israel. It

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Speaker 4: shows you they have capability and that so what Israel

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Speaker 4: needs is those Tamio rockets.

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Speaker 3: Mike Lyons. I think the quote of the interview Mike

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Speaker 3: is we're at the beginning of the beginning, so we

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Speaker 3: sure appreciate the thoughts and the perspective. Good to talk

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Speaker 3: to you.

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Speaker 4: Thanks guys, thanks for me every weekend. Armstrong and Getty