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Speaker 1: Welcome to the solid verbal home that for me. I'm

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Speaker 1: a man, I'm for I've heard so many players say

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Speaker 1: I want to be happy. You want to be happy

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Speaker 1: for Dake Edith Steak, is that woo woom?

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Speaker 2: And Tom Maties I like that. The Two's Cruise, Dan,

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Speaker 2: Two's Cruise sales once more. We got such a response

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Speaker 2: last week.

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Speaker 1: We had to do it again. It's back.

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Speaker 2: It is back for the foreseeable future. How are you,

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Speaker 2: my first Lieutenant, Dan Rubenstein.

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Speaker 1: I'm staying dry here, Ty. I know some people are

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Speaker 1: water logged out there on the high seas of college football,

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Speaker 1: but look, I watched my own personal favorite team look

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Speaker 1: pretty water logged physically because there was a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a monsoon there in the first like quarter and

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Speaker 1: a half first half against Cal and Eugene for the

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Speaker 1: Oregon Ducks. But otherwise, Ty, what a joy it is.

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Speaker 2: This is, of course, our college football Slash themed college

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Speaker 2: football podcast episode we do three a week. We've got

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Speaker 2: the campfire that we put out every Sunday morning on

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Speaker 2: the public feed. We've of course got the preview that

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Speaker 2: we do a little bit later on in this year

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Speaker 2: week on Wednesday, around midday or so. This is the

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Speaker 2: in between show where we zoom out, take to the

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Speaker 2: high seas, take a look at the college football landscape,

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Speaker 2: look upon the horizon, try not to look down. If

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Speaker 2: you look down and get seasick, you got to look out.

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Speaker 2: And today we are playing a game called Dan Overboard, Baby,

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Speaker 2: Dan Overboard, just because it sounds like man overboard.

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Speaker 1: Of course, and I think the last time we did

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Speaker 1: something like this, I have the eight bit version of

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Speaker 1: the blink onin eighty two song.

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Speaker 2: Yes that sound right, I may have that somewhere in

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Speaker 2: the dropbox.

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Speaker 1: But continue in which we are. We're comparing resumes. We're

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Speaker 1: at the point of the season in early November that

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Speaker 1: you know, I don't like looking at too far ahead

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Speaker 1: in the periscope in the from the Crow's Nest at

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Speaker 1: the college football playoff. But the first rankings are out.

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Speaker 1: It is November, and we have enough of a data set,

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Speaker 1: it's not great, but enough of a sample size that

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Speaker 1: you know, most teams have played nine to ten games,

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Speaker 1: most teams have played six or seven conference games at

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Speaker 1: this point, and we just have a general feel for

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Speaker 1: how teams have or haven't evolved to this point that

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Speaker 1: I think it's it's relatively reasonable. There are some extreme

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Speaker 1: examples Michigan of teams that have played precisely nobody, so

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Speaker 1: there's less to go on. But that seems to be

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Speaker 1: much like you like your Aha Tuna serve tie very rare.

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Speaker 1: Oh yes, that's another seafaring reference.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, let's talk through resumes, let's talk through remaining schedules.

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Speaker 2: Let's look at who's got the inside track here on

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Speaker 2: the college football playoff. This clip you're listening to is

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Speaker 2: part of a full episode that we post out on

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Speaker 2: our patreon at verballers dot com, So you can go

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Speaker 2: there now sign up if you want to listen to

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Speaker 2: the full thing where we talk about all sorts of

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Speaker 2: verballer questions. I'm looking at them now. They're great things

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Speaker 2: about Jimbo's ma. Sure, what does it mean now that

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Speaker 2: Alex Grinch has been relieved of command? Potential thirty for

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Speaker 2: thirty titles in the upcoming Michigan sign Stealing Controversy documentary.

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Speaker 2: I think we can get a little bit creative with that.

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Speaker 2: We've got all sorts of questions that came in from

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Speaker 2: the verballerhood. Rebollers dot com is where you can go

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Speaker 2: for that. Of course, if you just want to subscribe

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Speaker 2: to this show. We would appreciate it. Hit subscribe or

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Speaker 2: follow wherever it is you get your podcast. Dan, Let's

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Speaker 2: play the game. Do you got a sound? Thank you?

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Speaker 2: Of course, very goofy. That's the sound of us dropping

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Speaker 2: maybe Michigan's resume. Sure, the cold icy depths of the

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Speaker 2: North Atlantic.

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Speaker 1: Uh huh.

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Speaker 2: The game here is we are going to compare resumes

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Speaker 2: between two teams, between three teams, maybe between more teams,

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Speaker 2: depends where the podcast takes us, okay, and we're going

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Speaker 2: to drop the loser into the abyss okay of the ocean.

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Speaker 2: Now you mentioned miss we have uncovered. We spend ten

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Speaker 2: minutes before we hit record today trying to go through

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Speaker 2: Big ten tiebreaker scenarios which are.

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Speaker 1: Not even Big ten type Big ten divisional Big ten.

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Speaker 2: Divisional tiebreaker scenarios which are nuts crazy. You're going all

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Speaker 2: the way down to like the fifth or sixth or

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Speaker 2: seventh tiebreaker in order to decide this thing. The teams

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Speaker 2: that I want to compare here you are ready mentioned Michigan.

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Speaker 2: Let's throw Ohio State in the mix. Let's also throw

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Speaker 2: Penn State in the mix. So the way things stand

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Speaker 2: right now, strength of schedule just on that number alone,

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Speaker 2: Michigan one hundred and eleventh in the nation, Penn State

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Speaker 2: eighty first in the nation. Ohio State the clear winner

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Speaker 2: at time of recording. Again, it's Monday, November sixth. The

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Speaker 2: lot's going to happen over the next three weeks. Ohio

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Speaker 2: State is twentieth in terms of remaining strength of schedule.

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Speaker 2: We've got Michigan number one in the country, Ohio State

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Speaker 2: number seven in the country, Penn State twenty first in

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Speaker 2: the country. Both Penn State and Ohio State and Michigan

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Speaker 2: have games against one another, so things are going to

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Speaker 2: break here as we go down the stretch in the

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Speaker 2: Big Ten East. We have determined that in the event

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Speaker 2: Penn State beats Michigan and Michigan beats Ohio State, as

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Speaker 2: long as Iowa keeps winning and State would win, the

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Speaker 2: Big Ten East go on to play Iowa and if

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Speaker 2: they beat Iowa again likely be the playoff representative for

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Speaker 2: the Big Ten. Did I get that correct?

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Speaker 1: I think so, yes, Penn State beats Michigan, Michigan beats

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Speaker 1: Ohio State, Iowa keeps winning. It's the fifth tiebreaker, the

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Speaker 1: fifth Big Ten divisional tiebreaker that would put Penn State

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Speaker 1: into the Big Ten Championship game, and presumably because they've

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Speaker 1: already beaten Iowa, if Iowa is the West representative, they

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Speaker 1: beat Iowa. I think thirty one to nothing was the

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Speaker 1: final in that one, that's right. So there's not a

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Speaker 1: lot to indicate that the Deacon Hill led Iowaha guys

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Speaker 1: would have enough to beat Penn State in Indy. So yeah, yes,

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Speaker 1: that's the scenario. You'd have to compare cumulative Big Ten

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Speaker 1: West records of Penn State, Michigan, and Ohio State's opponents.

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Speaker 2: As you look at those three resumes, what is the

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Speaker 2: point of comparison for you? Like, what is the thing

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Speaker 2: that jumps out? Because right now Michigan's best wins are

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Speaker 2: over Minnesota Rutgers in Nebraska. Clearly they are the weakest

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Speaker 2: win compared to Ohio State, which beat Notre Dame on

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Speaker 2: the road, Penn State at home, and Wisconsin on the

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Speaker 2: road backup quarterback Wisconsin, but still hostile environment. Even Penn

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Speaker 2: State's got to win over Iowa. They beat Maryland on

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Speaker 2: the road, hammered Maryland on the road, and had that

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Speaker 2: win opening weekend against West Virginia at home. So clearly

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Speaker 2: the strength of those wins is better than what Michigan's got.

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Speaker 2: It does sort of go back into this conversation that

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Speaker 2: I've been having, and Michigan, to my eye, has taken

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Speaker 2: care of business better than almost everybody in the country.

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Speaker 1: Yes, the TCB index taking care of business index from

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Speaker 1: Michigan is extraordinarily strong just in terms of me or

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Speaker 1: surpassing expectations against below average opponents of those three teams.

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Speaker 1: If we are comparing what could be by the end

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Speaker 1: of the year Ohio State short of them getting destroyed

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Speaker 1: by Michigan, right then it's a different conversation. If they

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Speaker 1: lose that game forty nine to seventeen or something like that.

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Speaker 1: Short of that happening, they're the team that's best position. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: winning you're in and lose close to Michigan, and the

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Speaker 1: rest of the sport sets up that a one lost

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Speaker 1: non conference champion can get in. Ohio State is best

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Speaker 1: position because of how they've played so in this scenario,

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Speaker 1: because of how Penn State didn't play against Ohio State,

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Speaker 1: because of how Penn State has struggled at times against

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Speaker 1: clearly inferior opponents. You look at the Indiana game, you

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Speaker 1: look at the Northwestern first half. Look, we're sort of

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Speaker 1: on the margins here. I'm going Dan overboard with Penn

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Speaker 1: State throwing them over Yeah, I just think they have

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Speaker 1: the longest swim to safety at this moment.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, an interesting candidate to also be thrown

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Speaker 2: overboard would be Michigan.

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Speaker 1: Sure.

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Speaker 2: Even though I'm very, very high on the Michigan Wolverines.

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Speaker 2: You know this, they were my national championship pick. I

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Speaker 2: have not seen anything so far that has led me

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Speaker 2: to think otherwise. But you get two things when you

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Speaker 2: play allows the schedule, you have a two lane comfort

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Speaker 2: cruise and the words of Cosmo Kramer, through to about

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Speaker 2: ten or eleven wins, maybe even twelve wins if you're Michigan.

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Speaker 2: You also get no benefit of the doubt if you lose. Right,

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Speaker 2: and so, given the fact that they've got Penn State

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Speaker 2: and Ohio State in the remaining three weeks of the schedule,

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Speaker 2: Michigan loses their big time DAN overboard, their big time

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Speaker 2: DAN overboard. They do not get the benefit of the

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Speaker 2: doubt from anybody, from the tiebreakers, from the playoff committees,

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Speaker 2: from anybody.

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Speaker 1: What if I can I go through this with you?

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Speaker 1: I'm trying to be very straightforward. Michigan in a scenario

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Speaker 1: goes twelve and one losing to Iowa is the strength

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Speaker 1: of what Michigan has listened to me. Listen to me,

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Speaker 1: listen to this chaos the chaos theory. Yes, Michigan at

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Speaker 1: twelve and one, twelve zero, running the table, beating Penn State,

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Speaker 1: Ohio State, two great wins. Losing to Iowa not a

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Speaker 1: great loss. But you might be talking about ten and

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Speaker 1: two Iowa, you would be or eleven in two Iowa.

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Speaker 1: In that moment, does Michigan find themselves in a TCU

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Speaker 1: situation where they can get into the playoff without with

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Speaker 1: running the table then losing the conference championship game like

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Speaker 1: TCU did last year? Now, obviously the rest of the

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Speaker 1: sport and I'm not going to go but you know,

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Speaker 1: contender by contender. But Michigan in that scenario, as a

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Speaker 1: non champ losing to an eleven win team, are you

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Speaker 1: giving them benefit of the doubt? I guess I'd have

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Speaker 1: to give you a just one team, right, twelve and one?

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Speaker 1: This is you decide, Dan Overboard here twelve and one

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Speaker 1: non champ Michigan, we have three surefire teams in twelve

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Speaker 1: and one non champ Michigan, twelve and one champ Oregon.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I k know you're gonna say Oregon.

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Speaker 1: What about I'm trying to think of who another one,

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Speaker 1: like twelve and one champ Florida State, right against Michigan

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Speaker 1: twelve and one non champ Michigan.

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Speaker 2: If you compare resumes at that point, you're assuming Michigan

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Speaker 2: beats Penn State and beats Ohio State. Yes, and that

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Speaker 2: Florida State, you know, wins out, maybe lose to somebody. Oregon,

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Speaker 2: of course, has the loss to Washington on the schedule.

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Speaker 2: I think I still go Michigan because those those two

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Speaker 2: wins over both Penn State and Ohio State would trump

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Speaker 2: just about all of the other ones that I'm seeing

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Speaker 2: from these other teams.

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Speaker 1: So I'm saying Florida State loses to Miami but still

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Speaker 1: wins the ACC No.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm just looking at quality of wins, and

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Speaker 2: I think the quality of beating Penn State, the quality

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Speaker 2: of beating Ohio State would surpass beating a four loss

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Speaker 2: Clemson on the road, a duke team that has sputtered

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Speaker 2: for obvious reasons, LSU, which does not play defense.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm saying specifically twelve and one Michigan non champ

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Speaker 1: twelve and one champ Florida State, you'd go Michigan.

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Speaker 2: I would go Michigan, Yeah, over.

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Speaker 1: An ACC champ. So that would be a Florida State win,

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Speaker 1: likely over Louisville over It would be a top ten team,

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Speaker 1: right if they're winning out. Yeah, so that's a comparable win.

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Speaker 1: So that would mean Florida State with wins over LSU

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Speaker 1: and Louisville is not good enough.

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Speaker 2: No, because I think wins over Ohio State and Penn

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Speaker 2: State are better. Okay, but that's a tough one. That's

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Speaker 2: Tompson screwing Florida State there. Yep, Yeah, throw Florida State

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Speaker 2: over play the sound.

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Speaker 1: Throw Florida State over.

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Speaker 2: Wow from over Sorry about Alabama. Alabama is fascinating, a

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Speaker 2: fascinating case here. Alabama is the eighth best strength of schedule.

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Speaker 2: They've got wins over Tennessee, LSU, Old Miss, and Texas

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Speaker 2: A and M. Their biggest loss was at home against Texas.

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Speaker 2: It's their only loss, but it's pretty big, pretty big

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Speaker 2: in the grand scheme of things here because Texas is

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Speaker 2: also in the running.

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Speaker 1: Right exactly. There's the head to head data point that

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Speaker 1: not a lot of these teams will that the non

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Speaker 1: teams in different conferences will have.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, both Texas and Alabama have one loss. Texas lost

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Speaker 2: to Oklahoma Red River shootout. They of course beat Bama

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Speaker 2: on the road. They've also beaten k State as well

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Speaker 2: as Kansas. Remaining strength of schedule between these two teams

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Speaker 2: favors Alabama slightly. They've got Kentucky this weekend. I think

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Speaker 2: that is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. They've

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Speaker 2: also got the Iron Bowl to close out the year. Texas,

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Speaker 2: meanwhile's got three Big twelve opponents TCU on the road

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Speaker 2: this weekend, Iowa State Week twelve on the road. That'll

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Speaker 2: be a raucous environment. They close out the year against

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Speaker 2: Texas Tech. I guess my question to you is if

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Speaker 2: both Texas and Alabama win out, they're fighting for a

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Speaker 2: fourth spot, and they're fighting for a fourth spot, who

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Speaker 2: do you give it to? I would give it to Texas,

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Speaker 2: even if Alabama goes into the SEC chann and beats

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Speaker 2: Georgia boks off Georgia.

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Speaker 1: Yes, Okay, So in this scenario, Texas will have also

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Speaker 1: beaten the best team on its schedule, which happens to

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Speaker 1: be the team you're comparing them against on the road.

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Speaker 1: So you're saying Alabama beats Georgia quote unquote neutral it's

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Speaker 1: in Atlanta, but Texas to go into tusc loose. So

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Speaker 1: now you're talking about September results versus December results. So

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Speaker 1: I would put slightly more weight on if you're talking

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Speaker 1: about a single result, probably Alabama beating Georgia, because at

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Speaker 1: least you can talk to your you talk yourself into

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Speaker 1: that these are completed products. Jalen Molroe is not who

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Speaker 1: he was then as he is now. But if you're

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Speaker 1: talking about two conference champs, and Texas in this scenario

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Speaker 1: either beats Oklahoma again or beats Oklahoma State, who is

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Speaker 1: going to be a top twelve ish right team if

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Speaker 1: they win out and end up in the conference championship game,

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Speaker 1: I think the quality wins are there. They both scheduled

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Speaker 1: well because they scheduled each other, and then the margins

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Speaker 1: of this are you know. The Alabama box set includes

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Speaker 1: a DVD that features Alabama looking horrendous against what is

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Speaker 1: now a four and five team from the American with

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Speaker 1: a first year coach in USF and he's like, well,

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Speaker 1: they didn't have Jalen Monroe. They chose not to start

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Speaker 1: their best quarterback right as far as.

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Speaker 2: We got at the time, we didn't know he was

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Speaker 2: the best quarterback, but.

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Speaker 1: Right they chose not to start him. And it's not

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Speaker 1: like they started a walk on. They played a former

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Speaker 1: five star that had been in their program for multiple

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Speaker 1: years and a former starter for Notre Dame himself, a

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Speaker 1: blue chip player. Inconsistent, but that's it's not they weren't starting,

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Speaker 1: you know, a five foot four guy who's just learning

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Speaker 1: the sport. So that's that's an ugly data point for Alabama.

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Speaker 1: On the margins, Bama almost also almost lost to Arkansas

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Speaker 1: three and six, I believe at the moment. Yeah, so

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Speaker 1: the TCB and X man right now, Alabama, I don't

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Speaker 1: think Alabama has a top forty offense at the moment.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they're like points per drive, whatever metric

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Speaker 1: you prefer. I don't think Alabama's offense is there, and

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Speaker 1: Alabama's defense is not where it has been. They are

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Speaker 1: underperforming their talent level on defense. Still good but not crazy.

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Speaker 2: Good man, you're down on Alabama.

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Speaker 1: I'm just I'm trying to figure it out with Alabama

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Speaker 1: right now.

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Speaker 2: See, I think they are coming together at the right time,

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Speaker 2: and I don't have zombie Alabama in front of me.

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Speaker 1: That's totally fine. And look, if you're beating Georgia, that's

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Speaker 1: an enormous data point that says we're not who we

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Speaker 1: were in September. I mean, I'm willing to concede that.

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Speaker 2: If Alabama runs the table, that means they beat Kentucky

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Speaker 2: and Auburn and the SEC, They're obviously going to be Chattanooga.

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Speaker 2: What it means they go to Atlanta and they knock

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Speaker 2: off Georgia, Alabama would be your SEC champion. You'd have

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Speaker 2: to put him in. They're the SEC champion. The question

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Speaker 2: for me is not whether or not you'd put them

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Speaker 2: in over Texas. The question is what happens to Georgia,

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Speaker 2: because Georgia is also in a very interesting spot. Their

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Speaker 2: best wins right now the Missouri win this past week,

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Speaker 2: and I thought was impressive. Obviously, they've got wins over

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Speaker 2: Kentucky and Florida. Both of those games were impressive as well.

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Speaker 2: Correct of their remaining games, They've got Ole miss this weekend,

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Speaker 2: which is the biggest I think on their remaining slate

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Speaker 2: of games. They've also got a big one on the

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Speaker 2: road at Tennessee in week twelve and they close things

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Speaker 2: out against Georgia Tech. So George's got some amo here

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Speaker 2: on the schedule. I don't think it's quite as easy

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Speaker 2: as maybe we thought at the start of the year.

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Speaker 2: But what happens to Georgia in that scenario?

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Speaker 1: So if Georgia also fascinating because they didn't schedule anybody

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Speaker 1: and at least have some sort of excuse because they

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Speaker 1: had an Oklahoma series that was canceled, So that's part

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Speaker 1: of the context, part of the context.

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Speaker 2: But if we're going to throw Alabama overboard in the

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Speaker 2: event that all things are equal with Texas and give

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Speaker 2: the nod to Texas because Texas beat them heads up, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: what happens if Alabama knocks off Georgia and we've got

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Speaker 2: two teams in the SEC that are twelve and one?

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Speaker 2: Do they both get in?

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Speaker 1: Depending on the situation. You're gonna have to give me

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Speaker 1: some more color here, But like twelve and one pack

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Speaker 1: twelve champ Oregon winning over Washington, so they're avenging the

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Speaker 1: one loss and have taken care of business at least

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Speaker 1: after that Texas Tech game. And that was Texas Tech

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Speaker 1: with their starting quarterback. You know, across the board, they're

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Speaker 1: destroying everybody. And then if you're talking about a Big

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Speaker 1: Ten champion that's either undefeated or has one loss, I'd

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Speaker 1: put the Big Ten champion over a non champ Georgia,

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Speaker 1: an undefeated Big Ten champion. Wow.

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Speaker 2: So you'd potentially be looking at a team like Michigan

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Speaker 2: or team like Ohio State over Georgia.

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Speaker 1: Undefeated Michigan over one loss, non champ Georgia. Definitely you

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Speaker 1: would take twelve and one non champ Georgia over thirteen

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Speaker 1: to no Michigan.

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Speaker 2: I don't think you can do that. No, no, okay,

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Speaker 2: I just haven't thought through all these scenarios yet, and

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Speaker 2: they're crazy.

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Speaker 1: No, there's a lot, there's a lot happening around the

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Speaker 1: sport talking about margins with Georgia, right, not crazy impressive

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Speaker 1: against Auburn, who will make a bowl game. Not crazy

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Speaker 1: impressive against South Carolina who probably won't make a bowl game.

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Speaker 1: Or it's looking pretty iffy and they don't have the

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Speaker 1: non conference.

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Speaker 2: So in a scenario, in a scenario where we've got

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Speaker 2: Georgia and Alabama both finishing.

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Speaker 1: Twelve and one, who wins who wins? In CEE Alabama.

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Speaker 1: I mean, obviously it's Alabama.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but let's say they both finished twelve and one.

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Speaker 2: Let's say Michigan goes undefeated, runs the table, wins a

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Speaker 2: big ten. I think both those SEC teams are in,

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Speaker 2: and my question would be who gets thrown overboard of

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Speaker 2: the remaining teams, because suddenly then you've got a battle

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Speaker 2: royale between.

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Speaker 1: What's Florida State's record Florida State.

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Speaker 2: Let's assume Florida State wins out as well.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so that's it. That's that where State wins out.

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Speaker 1: So then your question, your your overboard question then becomes

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Speaker 1: undefeated Florida State or undefeated Washington.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: I think it's undefeated Florida State because their win over

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Speaker 1: LSU is going to shine brighter than either the Michigan

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Speaker 1: State or Boise State wins. They're going to have a

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Speaker 1: win against a top ten ish in this scenario, Louisville.

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Speaker 1: They'll have a win over Florida, they'll have a win

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Speaker 1: over Miami, they'll have a win over Clemson, they'll have

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Speaker 1: a win over nine win Boston College.

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Speaker 2: Nine in three goals.

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Speaker 1: Maybe that's going out there nine in three goals. I

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Speaker 1: think you take Florida State. I think you take an

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Speaker 1: undefeated Florida State over undefeated Washington because Washington struggles with Stanford,

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Speaker 1: they struggle with Arizona State, and even though they've beaten

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Speaker 1: Oregon twice, if you're comparing undefeated moments and you're comparing

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Speaker 1: taking care of business Florida State, what are the moments

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Speaker 1: where they didn't?

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Speaker 2: Right? The Boston College?

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Speaker 1: Boston College they didn't, Clemson they didn't. And I think

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Speaker 1: were they down to Duke in the fourth quarter or

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Speaker 1: tied with Duke in the fourth?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it was close. I mean they struggled for a

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Speaker 2: half with Pitt.

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Speaker 1: But I don't think any any Florida's State result will

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Speaker 1: be as bad as not scoring an offensive touchdown against

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Speaker 1: Arizona State. Right, I don't think anything will be that low,

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Speaker 1: and Washington won't have the LSU think, so I would

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Speaker 1: give the nod to Florida State.

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Speaker 2: There the Washington and Oregon conversations interesting in the event

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Speaker 2: that let's say we've got an undefeated Georgia goes through

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Speaker 2: SEC Championship one. Yep, they win thirteen and zero. Let's

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Speaker 2: say Michigan thirteen and oh, let's say Florida State thirteen

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Speaker 2: and O. I also say Texas wins the Big twelve championship.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so we have one lost champ Texas, yep. And

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Speaker 1: let's throw the Oregon Ducks in there, and so we're

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Speaker 1: saying Texas versus Oregon, Texas versus Oregon, Okay, so they'll

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Speaker 1: have a common opponent in Texas Tech, which I think

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Speaker 1: it's who Texas finishes the season with. Texas is not

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Speaker 1: taking care of business moments on the margins are being

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Speaker 1: tied with Wyoming in the fourth quarter. It was ten

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Speaker 1: all in the fourth quarter there, and probably needing a

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Speaker 1: hilariously bad spot against Houston and now that's a quin

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Speaker 1: Youewers injury game also relevant context, But they sneak by Houston,

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Speaker 1: sneaking by Kansas State is nothing to be ashamed of

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Speaker 1: their good team. So I think it's it's probably is

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Speaker 1: there anything else with Texas. I mean, the Oklahoma loss

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Speaker 1: is going to look worse.

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Speaker 2: The Oklahoma loss looks worse worse, but the Bama win

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Speaker 2: is incredible. The Bama win is incredible. The Bama win

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Speaker 2: is incredible. So I think you give the odd to

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Speaker 2: Texas there.

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Speaker 1: So you're saying twelve and one Texas over twelve and

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Speaker 1: one Oregon.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, even though I think Oregon's better, Why do you

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Speaker 2: think Oregon's better. I've watched the games, just resume wise,

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Speaker 2: just I've watched the games. Wise, I think they will.

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Speaker 1: Oregon has a better loss Washington. Excuse me. Oregon has

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Speaker 1: a better loss. Texas has a better win. Yeah, but

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Speaker 1: you can say Alabama wasn't who they were back in

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Speaker 1: September if they beat Georgia and some kind of scenario.

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Speaker 1: I think that's right, because Texas has largely taken care

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Speaker 1: of business with Quinn yours I numbers wise, Texas is

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Speaker 1: very good. I think Oregon's better.

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Speaker 2: Is there any scenario in which either Old Miss or

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Speaker 2: Louisville could find itself into the playoff? Louisville lost to

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Speaker 2: Pit a week after.

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Speaker 1: That's a bad loss.

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Speaker 2: Beating Notre Dame. That's the worst loss of any of

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Speaker 2: the teams that we're talking about here, but still kind

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Speaker 2: of in the mix, right, they're still there, yep. And

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Speaker 2: Old Miss has the loss on the road to Alabama,

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Speaker 2: but they've got Georgia this weekend. You beat Georgia, suddenly

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Speaker 2: things start opening up a little bit. If you're Louisville.

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Speaker 2: You've got I think cakewalk, a relative cakewalk the rest

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Speaker 2: of the way. I don't know how confidently we believe

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Speaker 2: in the Cardinals. But Virginia on the road at Miami

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Speaker 2: home against Kentucky to close out the year in the

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Speaker 2: Governor's Cup. So you went out, you go to the

437
00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 2: a SEC title game. Potentially you beat Florida State, go

438
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 2: twelve and one. If you're Ole Miss, obviously you don't

439
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 2: have that tiebreaker over Alabama. So there's a question about

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00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 2: what happens to Bama do this. Bama still get in

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00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:10,199
Speaker 2: over you'd probably need some help to get into that

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00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,919
Speaker 2: title game, but there's a pretty good chance to beat Georgia.

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Speaker 2: You're going at least eleven and one. Is there a

444
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 2: case for either of those teams? And what would need

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00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 2: to happen?

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Speaker 1: So you're basically what Ole Miss needs is they need

447
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 1: Alabama to lose twice to make the SEC Championship game

448
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:30,439
Speaker 1: more or less. Yeah, they basically can't get to the

449
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:35,440
Speaker 1: SEC Championship game. But if Ole Miss beats Georgia SEC

450
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 1: champ Georgia this week, that's right. So Ole Miss is

451
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 1: winning this game. Let's even say in somewhat impressive fashion.

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00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 1: They beat Georgia thirty five to twenty four. Okay, Ole

453
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:48,120
Speaker 1: Miss beats Georgia, is nowhere near the SEC championship game.

454
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:52,160
Speaker 1: Georgia loses again to Alabama. Okay, so Georgia is now

455
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,880
Speaker 1: out of it. So Georgia has two losses. Alabama wins

456
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 1: the SEC with Womass, and then Ole Miss finishes the

457
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:02,120
Speaker 1: year eleven and one with a win over Georgia. They

458
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 1: still need help because on the margins, Ole Miss the

459
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 1: season hasn't been incredible. They were I think tied with

460
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 1: two lanes backup quarterback in the fourth quarter.

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Speaker 2: That's right.

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00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:14,119
Speaker 1: They didn't separate themselves from all of the teams on

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00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 1: their schedule. They've had nice wins. The Auburn win was

464
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 1: a touchdown. It was a late touchdown from Auburn. So

465
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 1: Ole Miss definitely needs help and they have to be

466
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:22,440
Speaker 1: george obviously.

467
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 2: So what we've done here, I think we stopped throwing

468
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 2: people overboard. Dan, you stop playing this stuff. It's fine.

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Speaker 2: Speak for yourself.

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00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:33,040
Speaker 1: Okay, I threw Georgia overboard losing to Ole Miss. Yeah.

471
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 2: I think what we've laid out here are some very

472
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 2: interesting chaos scenarios. One in which Penn State could find

473
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 2: its way still into the playoff if nothing more, find

474
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 2: its way into the Big Ten championship game. We've also

475
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:48,720
Speaker 2: got potentially a heads up between Texas and Alabama to

476
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 2: get into the final playoff spot, maybe Oregon and Texas

477
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:55,840
Speaker 2: to get into that final spot. Florida State just sort

478
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:58,679
Speaker 2: of lurking. If Florida State continues to win out and

479
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:00,920
Speaker 2: doesn't have any slip ups the rest of the way,

480
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 2: it'd be hard to leave the Knowles out at this point.

481
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:05,639
Speaker 2: But final three weeks of the season, we're going to

482
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,560
Speaker 2: see some stuff break. We just know that from experience.

483
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 2: We're going to get some big answers this weekend in

484
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:14,639
Speaker 2: college football Week eleven. It's still pretty wide open all

485
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:17,679
Speaker 2: things considered. Oh, We've got a number of conferences that

486
00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 2: feel wide open, and the playoff race I think is

487
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:22,360
Speaker 2: more wide open than a lot of people realize.

488
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 1: Oh man, I really hope we get that scenario where

489
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 1: we have that three way twenty eight Big Twelve tie

490
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 1: but atop the Big Ten East, I just I want

491
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:34,119
Speaker 1: the fate of that division in the hands of Purdue.

492
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,679
Speaker 1: That's all I want. If I'm reading these tiebreakers correctly,

493
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:41,760
Speaker 1: If I'm reading the bylaws correctly that all of these

494
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 1: lowly big ten West teams are actually going to decide

495
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 1: the East crazy. We need Drew Aller against Michigan. We

496
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 1: need it all right, but otherwise I want it so

497
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:51,920
Speaker 1: badly tie.

498
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 2: So listen. Uh, thank you for listening to the Tues cruise,

499
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:57,640
Speaker 2: for hopping aboard the ship here with us. We will

500
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:01,199
Speaker 2: do this again next Tuesday. We've also got a just

501
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:05,360
Speaker 2: whole host of questions that came in via our patreon

502
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 2: at verbowlers dot com. We're going to go through some

503
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 2: of those now here on the full version of this episode.

504
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:13,200
Speaker 2: We'd encourage you one more time to go to verballers

505
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:16,920
Speaker 2: dot com, sign up and listen to the full episode.

506
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 2: We also offer bonus perks like ad free episodes, get

507
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 2: access to our discord, which goes crazy every Saturday game

508
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 2: Day goes nuts. It's like trying to read the matrix,

509
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 2: got so many messages going through there, and of course

510
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 2: you get access to our bonus content as well, where

511
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 2: we do team spotlights on Thursdays. We also have Jeff

512
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 2: video Jeff Schwartz breaking down schemes, all sorts of fun

513
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:42,199
Speaker 2: stuff out on our patreon forballers dot Com, hope US

514
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 2: see over