Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing
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Speaker 1: YouTube search Bloomberg cloverl News. Well. Another story, of course,
Speaker 1: driving markets today has to do with the monthly jobs
Speaker 1: report for the month of October, which we got this
Speaker 1: morning at eight thirty am Wall Street Time. US job
Speaker 1: growth quickening as a gain of five and thirty one
Speaker 1: thousand outstrips estimates, the best numbers that we've seen in months.
Speaker 1: A leading voice that we like to go to each
Speaker 1: and every month when we do get a job's report
Speaker 1: is Becky Frankowitz, the president of Manpower Group North America.
Speaker 1: Manpower Group is a workforce solutions company that sources, assesses,
Speaker 1: develops and manages talent across eighty countries from more than
Speaker 1: four hundred thousand clients. Becky, it's great to chat with
Speaker 1: you again. Your your reaction to this morning's number. Yeah, Hi, Tim,
Speaker 1: So the morning really represented the beginning, the beginning of
Speaker 1: a reconciliation between American companies and American workers. You know,
Speaker 1: a stimulus ended, Tim, Employers now realized they need to
Speaker 1: move closer to what workers want to bring them back
Speaker 1: in and it truly is wages plus. So the plus
Speaker 1: is around flexibility, autonomy, you know, a focus on health
Speaker 1: and well being, and a sense of purpose. You know,
Speaker 1: but I do mean the beginning, because there are low
Speaker 1: lights and highlights to this report, UM. You know, some
Speaker 1: of the highlights are as you mentioned, strong numbers, particularly
Speaker 1: in manufacturing. You know, the p m I has been
Speaker 1: over sixty now for several months, which is great to
Speaker 1: see hospitality leisure starting to bounce back, showing some signs
Speaker 1: of healing. Women. Women were a headline today. You know,
Speaker 1: the labor force grew by hundred and four thousand people
Speaker 1: entirely due to the increase in women and back into
Speaker 1: the workforce, and of course wage growth. UM continues to
Speaker 1: be a headline UM and and obviously leading to a
Speaker 1: concern around inflation. And the low lights are really around participation.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's not where any of us would want
Speaker 1: it to be. Um, it's hovering around a fifty year low,
Speaker 1: and workers are are slowly trickling back. Yet there's more
Speaker 1: that needs to be done to bring people back into
Speaker 1: the workforce. But that's my summary. But does our idea
Speaker 1: of participation have to change? Are not necessarily our metrics,
Speaker 1: but what labor force participation at a full level looks like?
Speaker 1: Does that have to change? Like FED chair Powell alluded
Speaker 1: to earlier this week that some people who left the
Speaker 1: labor force during the pandemic just aren't going to be
Speaker 1: going back to the labor force. Well, what we know,
Speaker 1: so I think it's a little early to tell that.
Speaker 1: What we know is that we have people retiring early,
Speaker 1: which I know you just you just spoke about, and
Speaker 1: we have women that have left the workforce. So the
Speaker 1: real question around you know, the retirees, the early ones
Speaker 1: that retired on average two years early, is will we
Speaker 1: see the resurgence of boomerang retire Probably not in the
Speaker 1: next two or three or four months, tim, but six months,
Speaker 1: twelve months, people take some time off and decide, you know,
Speaker 1: they're still young enough to participate. And on women, we
Speaker 1: really need the sectors where women are overrepresented to come
Speaker 1: back a little stronger, you know, encouraging on hospitality. You know,
Speaker 1: you saw education did not move in the right direction
Speaker 1: this morning through government hiring. Um so lots of work
Speaker 1: to do there. So I would say it's a little
Speaker 1: early to talk about redefining participation because what we know
Speaker 1: is we have a lot more jobs than we have people,
Speaker 1: and people are what fuel are economic growth. Well, okay,
Speaker 1: I want to talk more about women because if we
Speaker 1: look at the prime age women participation rate, it did
Speaker 1: pick up last month, but only slightly. And I mean,
Speaker 1: like you said, we have to see those sectors where
Speaker 1: women are overrepresented come back more strongly. But I mean
Speaker 1: if you look at you know, leisure and hospitality, that
Speaker 1: sector did see a big pick up last month. So
Speaker 1: so what's still holding back women from really re entering
Speaker 1: the workforce. Yes, I think it's a couple of things.
Speaker 1: You know, first you have to understand why women left,
Speaker 1: and women left in part because the sectors that they
Speaker 1: were overrepresented in were hit the hardest, hospitality and leisure, education, childcare, etcetera.
Speaker 1: So that's one they also left because we still I
Speaker 1: say we because obviously I'm a woman, we still bear
Speaker 1: um and and assume most of the housework, childcare, elder
Speaker 1: care in our homes. And many opted out and said
Speaker 1: now I'm a you know, I'm a full time worker
Speaker 1: and a full time teacher. Something has to give and
Speaker 1: opted out to stay home to help support the family.
Speaker 1: And so I thinks as these sectors come back, and
Speaker 1: you mentioned hospitality and leisure, definitely encouraging numbers, but still
Speaker 1: a on a very very low base. Um. But the
Speaker 1: real tell is going to be can we invite women
Speaker 1: back with the flexibility that they've now enjoyed as they've
Speaker 1: opted into, you know, playing a different role in their
Speaker 1: in their homes and families, and and that that really
Speaker 1: leads to the need for employers to redefine flexibility. It's
Speaker 1: not all about remote working, um, but we have to
Speaker 1: to find flexibility to attract women back into the workforce. Also,
Speaker 1: want to get your thoughts on the month months ahead,
Speaker 1: because we are entering, you know, the holiday season when
Speaker 1: you see a lot of businesses higher temporary workers just
Speaker 1: for that season. And I mean there's been a lot
Speaker 1: of consternation about what it's going to look like for
Speaker 1: retailers because we have all these supply chain issues. I'm
Speaker 1: curious what it's going to look like for those companies
Speaker 1: that are trying to hire seasonal workers. Yeah, so you
Speaker 1: use the word temporary, hiring temporary workers, you know, I
Speaker 1: would say, what is a temporary worker? These days? With
Speaker 1: the quit right, you know, reaching record highs ever reported,
Speaker 1: I guess in a lot of cases, a lot of
Speaker 1: folks are temporary, depending on how you define it. But
Speaker 1: it is something we're watching closely. And what we've seen
Speaker 1: our clients do is over higher early and so we
Speaker 1: started seeing, you know, job postings for three hundred thousand
Speaker 1: people for a client versus the traditional one hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty thousand they would go to higher and so we've
Speaker 1: seen really the combination instead of thing I'm hiring for
Speaker 1: seasonal workers, clients are saying I'm hiring and not putting
Speaker 1: an end date on that. And so you know, the
Speaker 1: real question is if you wanted to opt into the
Speaker 1: flexibility and some additional income from a worker view, you
Speaker 1: have more opportunities than ever before to opt into that
Speaker 1: kind of workforce. And you know, I think the smart
Speaker 1: companies are saying, hey, we just want to hire you.
Speaker 1: You can opt in and out for the number of
Speaker 1: hours and the length of assignment that you want to have.
Speaker 1: And so, you know, the trick is that we're going
Speaker 1: to have enough workers to support the growth we need
Speaker 1: over you know, over the holidays. And you've seen all
Speaker 1: the headlines around concerns not just for supply chain, but
Speaker 1: for for productivity. Yeah. Look what Amazon just announced last
Speaker 1: week that they might not even have a profitable quarter
Speaker 1: as a result of the incentives that they'll have to
Speaker 1: pay people to come in during the fourth quarter. Hey, Becky,
Speaker 1: give us an idea of what you see in the
Speaker 1: data from the companies that you work with at Manpower
Speaker 1: and what we saw on the jobs report today when
Speaker 1: it comes specifically to wage growth. Yeah, so we're definitely
Speaker 1: seeing wage inflation. Um, you know, wages are table stakes now,
Speaker 1: tim And it's so ironic if you go back twenty
Speaker 1: four months. You know, right before the crisis, we were
Speaker 1: all saying wages should be increasing based on the economic
Speaker 1: principles of supply and demand, and they didn't, and and
Speaker 1: they are now as you saw, we're up to four
Speaker 1: point nine on a on an average twelve months basis
Speaker 1: for wage increase. So we're definitely seeing wage increases. There's
Speaker 1: never been a more effective strategy in moving the fifteen
Speaker 1: dollar wage than in any of the movements we've seen
Speaker 1: outside of this crisis. And so we've been encouraged by that. UM.
Speaker 1: You know, we keep a close eye on on the
Speaker 1: other costs that are going up around our workers because
Speaker 1: if wages, you know, don't keep up with the inflationary
Speaker 1: cost of goods, then we also have an imbalance, and
Speaker 1: so that's important. But we're definitely seeing wage growth. And
Speaker 1: you know, another another hot sector I'll tell you going
Speaker 1: forward because you said, you know, looking out what we
Speaker 1: see UM. The headline of story, it's all around i T.
Speaker 1: So i T demand for jobs and that knowledge worker
Speaker 1: space of of i T is up thirty one year
Speaker 1: on year, and and remember we've talked about this in
Speaker 1: several reports. It continues to be on a high base,
Speaker 1: not a low base. It's not the story of hospitality.
Speaker 1: I T is the story of you know, step change
Speaker 1: year over year, month over month growth and last month
Speaker 1: in America, software developers overtook nurses as the number one
Speaker 1: most in demand role in our country. So nurses have
Speaker 1: moved to number two software developers and number one. So
Speaker 1: I t you know, talent is definitely the driver's seat
Speaker 1: in our country. Wow, I gotta think there's there's some
Speaker 1: signal to take about, you know, the fact that we
Speaker 1: are maybe getting out of this pandemic, the fact that
Speaker 1: nurses happened overtaken. But I do want to take us
Speaker 1: back to that labor force participation rate. Still scratching my
Speaker 1: head about it, the fact that again it really hasn't
Speaker 1: moved for months from sixty one point six per cent, Becky,
Speaker 1: how does that start to get higher? What's going to
Speaker 1: push it there? Well, again, at the end of stimulus,
Speaker 1: I think American employers, you know, we're holding their breath
Speaker 1: for you know, what I called the September sunrise on
Speaker 1: a prior program, you know, hoping that when stimulus ended,
Speaker 1: workers would come back in the workforce. Now, what of
Speaker 1: course we know, is that's not happening in the rate
Speaker 1: that anyone expected it too. And so if you step
Speaker 1: back and say what's going on in the households of
Speaker 1: of America, it truly is you know, a complex challenge.
Speaker 1: It's safety and I know you just had the visor
Speaker 1: CEOs speaking about vaccination rates, So it is safety. Cannot
Speaker 1: go into work and be safe. It is increasing responsibilities
Speaker 1: at home, which is primarily hardest hitting for women, but
Speaker 1: impacting families. And it's also America's are saving and so
Speaker 1: they're having the opportunity to you know, change their lifestyle,
Speaker 1: move to new cities and often too different ways of working.
Speaker 1: And so I think our our hope should be rooted
Speaker 1: around seasonal labor that you mentioned earlier, you know, coming
Speaker 1: back on maybe a part time basis to invite people
Speaker 1: back into the workforce and say, you know, come on in,
Speaker 1: it's it's actually okay. Becky Francowitz, President at Manpower Group
Speaker 1: North America, joining us on the phone from Chicago. Becky,
Speaker 1: thank you so much for taking the time. Really appreciate it.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic from Bloomberg Radio. Well shebil new
Speaker 1: coin craze is driving demand for a less than ideal
Speaker 1: dog breed. Claire Valentine is a reporter for Bloomberg News.
Speaker 1: She's covers markets and et f s, but I think
Speaker 1: it's fair we can call her the dogdog reporter for
Speaker 1: this story. She joins us on the phone from New
Speaker 1: York City. Claire, First of all, I have to ask you,
Speaker 1: was it trips to the dog park with your one
Speaker 1: year old dog Riley that got your attention for this story?
Speaker 1: It actually was. It was a combination of that and
Speaker 1: then also seeing this she thedio coin just skyrocket recently,
Speaker 1: and just with both of those sort of observations happening,
Speaker 1: you know, it just seemed like it was right for investigation.
Speaker 1: And sure enough, when I talked with some breeders across
Speaker 1: the country, they confirmed that people want the news now. Okay,
Speaker 1: So what did the breeders tell you about the way
Speaker 1: that people are getting in touch with them so much
Speaker 1: more than in just a few months ago. Well, it's
Speaker 1: so funny because some of these breeders that I called,
Speaker 1: there's act she Beat You New Association of America. They're
Speaker 1: all these national organizations, and these these are all like
Speaker 1: hobby breeders. They you know, they're she beat You knows
Speaker 1: have litters of three puppies at a time, and all
Speaker 1: of a sudden people are finding them and are calling
Speaker 1: them and on their waning list and and just lining
Speaker 1: up to get these dogs. Can we talk about Sida
Speaker 1: you news, because they're actually really cool. They're Japanese hunting dogs.
Speaker 1: I have been really into them for a while and
Speaker 1: I feel like does before before doughs. They're really cool,
Speaker 1: always painfully. But you say in the headline they're less
Speaker 1: than ideal dogs. Let's walk through that a little bit. Yeah,
Speaker 1: So from talking with with the actual breeders and my
Speaker 1: own personal experience, UM, I think the dogs they're they're
Speaker 1: very cute and they're very athletic. Um they're sort of
Speaker 1: aloof though is with the word that was used and
Speaker 1: a bit catholic. Yeah, well you're speaking Katie's language. Okay,
Speaker 1: this is the dog for you. I know. I feel
Speaker 1: like Katrick and a shiba, they would they would find
Speaker 1: if anyone, Yeah, if anyone hasn't seen Katie's dog, just
Speaker 1: follow her on her cat excuse me, kat Rick, um,
Speaker 1: just follow her on social media. I want to bring
Speaker 1: in Joel Webber, editor at Bloomberg Business Week. He's with
Speaker 1: us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. So Joel, we
Speaker 1: talked about uh Claire at the dog park with Riley
Speaker 1: and that being the genesis of this story. So when
Speaker 1: she and the team brought it to you, did you
Speaker 1: just say, yes, absolutely, this is exactly what we want
Speaker 1: to say. Because I love this story. I will fact
Speaker 1: check that story and just say that it happened a
Speaker 1: little differently. Oh okay, although I think Claire was the
Speaker 1: most perfect writer imaginable for it. But um, we we
Speaker 1: look like the new thing like it's just been um,
Speaker 1: you know, you can't look away from it, right, And
Speaker 1: it started with the doe interesting and then Ellen got
Speaker 1: his and and that mayde just kind of go, you know,
Speaker 1: is it just the craze kind of continued. I was like,
Speaker 1: it's got to be crossing over, right, And so that
Speaker 1: made me call Claire and I was like, hey, could
Speaker 1: you make some phone calls? And she was like, you know,
Speaker 1: this is my dream the side. So so thank you, Claire.
Speaker 1: But you know, Claire, UM, I know, I know I
Speaker 1: put the less than ideal dog breed um in the headline,
Speaker 1: but obviously that's in the beholder. Um, what are some
Speaker 1: positive traits about this dog? The positive choice, I think
Speaker 1: is that it's it's very athletic. I mean, it can
Speaker 1: you know, they're they were bred as hunting dogs, so
Speaker 1: you know, in terms of running and just you know,
Speaker 1: tearing it up with with other dogs like it can
Speaker 1: be really fun. Um also see it's very conducive to memes. Yes, yes, definitely.
Speaker 1: And I think it's you know, it's it's all about
Speaker 1: how you raise a dog and the training and that
Speaker 1: kind of thing. So they're not always bad dogs, but
Speaker 1: they do have some tendencies that could be you know,
Speaker 1: as we say, less than ideal. So Claire, you're writing
Speaker 1: your story that it's not the first time that pop
Speaker 1: culture has driven the purchases of pets, and it makes
Speaker 1: me think back to the nineties with Walt Disney's live
Speaker 1: action version of A hundred and one Dalmatians. Real puppies
Speaker 1: were given as Christmas gifts, you write, a spike and
Speaker 1: pupps at animal shelters after families realized though that dogs
Speaker 1: of this breed tend to bite and don't often like children.
Speaker 1: I'm wondering when we'll know if this is a lasting
Speaker 1: trend or if we'll see some sort of similar activity
Speaker 1: when it comes to uh the excitement around Shiba. Well,
Speaker 1: it could be you know, uh, many years away. I
Speaker 1: will say, you know, going off of the president for that.
Speaker 1: You know, my my dog Riley, who's a cocker Spaniel.
Speaker 1: He's actually the second or the third cocker spaniel I've
Speaker 1: owned in my life. When I was young and I
Speaker 1: watched Lady in the Tramp um my my parents got me.
Speaker 1: We had two cocker spaniels. So look at that. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a personal experience there and with you know, dogs, lifespands.
Speaker 1: You know this, this could be with us for quite
Speaker 1: a while. Next time we bring that into this story, Claire,
Speaker 1: Like you know, the cocker spaniel, there was like a
Speaker 1: whole other chapter to this story that I didn't know.
Speaker 1: I was hoping you were going to say we were
Speaker 1: going to bring a shiba into the studio. I mean,
Speaker 1: it could be arranged. Maybe I would like to say, yeah,
Speaker 1: I you know. Now. The other thing I will say
Speaker 1: here though, is that, um, you know, as long as
Speaker 1: we're on Mimi Dogs, do you know about the Benghazi
Speaker 1: ben JAZZI? Is that? That's it? Claire? Right, that's my
Speaker 1: that's my up and comer for for what I think
Speaker 1: is going to be the next meme dog is it?
Speaker 1: What is it? Curly tail hypoallergenic? Yeah, I don't think
Speaker 1: it has a coin yet, but you know, maybe able
Speaker 1: to start win this weekend. And well, you know, does
Speaker 1: it have cats? I mean, are you in the market?
Speaker 1: Is that know what you're saying. I live in a
Speaker 1: two bedroom with a cat, so and a husband. I'm
Speaker 1: not alone. So meanwhile, you know, we've got these coins
Speaker 1: that are kind of going crazy. Claire, Um, what's um?
Speaker 1: What's getting out to you in the on the coin world?
Speaker 1: And you know the other thing that was interesting here
Speaker 1: was that there are people who uh, you know, predated
Speaker 1: the meme moment right in terms of the Yeah, definitely.
Speaker 1: There are some people who you know who had Seba
Speaker 1: unity before dodge coin was was created. And for them
Speaker 1: it's you know, it's it's pretty weird all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: your your dog everywhere. Um. And one woman that I
Speaker 1: talked to, how does she the un and then later
Speaker 1: found out about the uniw coin and thought, oh, that's
Speaker 1: perfect for me. I'm going to invest in it. So
Speaker 1: it's sort of you know, each feed off the other. Um.
Speaker 1: But yeah, the Sheba new coin especially has just had
Speaker 1: so much um, grassroots support on social media for it.
Speaker 1: People are very into it. All. I gotta tell you
Speaker 1: I'm you know, you're the editor. I'm missing a picture
Speaker 1: of Riley the cocker Spaniel in this piece. You know,
Speaker 1: I guess, I guess. There are many things that we
Speaker 1: could have added to this story, including you know, my
Speaker 1: own story with but you know, you know, it doesn't
Speaker 1: all doesn't make the final car exactly. And again, this
Speaker 1: is like a really fun story and like one of
Speaker 1: those ones that it was just like, oh, there's you know,
Speaker 1: the real market. You know, well, what's happening in crypto,
Speaker 1: but there's actually a real real market, which is the
Speaker 1: crossover story of what's happening in with with this pretty
Speaker 1: a perfect story for Friday afternoon. You can read Claire's story.
Speaker 1: It's featured in the new issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine.
Speaker 1: It's available on newsstands and at Bloomberg dot com slash
Speaker 1: business Week. Joe Weber is editor of Bloomberg Business Week,
Speaker 1: joining us in the Bloomberg Interactive broker's studio. Claire Ballentine
Speaker 1: markets and ets reporter for Bloomberg new She joined us
Speaker 1: on the phone from New York City. This is Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim
Speaker 1: Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. It's Bloomberg Business Week. Tim Stinofeck
Speaker 1: and Katie Greifeld live in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio
Speaker 1: in New York. SHARE's a Viser. I are by eight
Speaker 1: point seven percent right now after the company is saying
Speaker 1: that it's COVID nineteen pill reduced hospitalizations and deaths in
Speaker 1: high risk patients by eight At the same time, we
Speaker 1: are seeing shares of MODERNA down about as a result
Speaker 1: of That's the big question is does this marking new
Speaker 1: stage in the fight against the pandemic. Well, let's ask
Speaker 1: a voice that we go to each and every week.
Speaker 1: Dr Ian LUs Beder, clinical professor of Medicine at n
Speaker 1: y U Lane Owns Medical Center. He joins us on
Speaker 1: the phone from New York City. Dr LUs Bader, what
Speaker 1: were your thoughts when you saw this news from Viser
Speaker 1: early this morning, Happy Friday, Tim and Katie. I think
Speaker 1: very good news. You know, certainly it's another addition to
Speaker 1: the armamentarium. You know, we are seeing cases dropping. I
Speaker 1: do think over the next several months, uh kind of
Speaker 1: de factor we're going to be seeing, you know, an
Speaker 1: end of the pandemic. Maybe endemic, but the end of
Speaker 1: a pandemic in the US obviously not globally. But the
Speaker 1: FISER pill is a protease inhibitor, and we use protease
Speaker 1: inhibitors to treat HIV, usually in combination as well. Hepatitis
Speaker 1: C also in a combination pill. And in this particular study,
Speaker 1: it showed that the FISER pill combined with one of
Speaker 1: the HIV pills that we use, ritonity Are, which is
Speaker 1: a protease inhibitor. All of these act in different ways
Speaker 1: to decrease viral replication. You know, it's very significant. They
Speaker 1: did the study in twelve patients. There are some other
Speaker 1: medications out there that are also encharging, some over the
Speaker 1: counter and not over the counter, some meta generic, I
Speaker 1: should say. The Wall Street Journal also reported a few
Speaker 1: weeks ago of a Lancet study with fluvoxamine, which is
Speaker 1: an S s R I that also is encouraging. Not
Speaker 1: quite as many patients in that study there were at
Speaker 1: six patients. Here, it's about twelve patients. So I think
Speaker 1: we're moving in the right direction with increased vaccinations, some
Speaker 1: new anti viral so I think there's hope on the front.
Speaker 1: And so it's interesting I mean, obviously you're seeing visor
Speaker 1: stocks searge today, but like Tim mentioned, you're seeing Maderna
Speaker 1: shares down at the moment. And some of the logic
Speaker 1: there that's been offered is that there's a pill available,
Speaker 1: people are less likely to get the vaccine in shot form.
Speaker 1: H does that logic cold water with you? Well, Maderna
Speaker 1: has a very deep field, you know, the the messenger
Speaker 1: RNA vaccines are going to be used for many things.
Speaker 1: Cancer virus is a huge number of things. So Maderna,
Speaker 1: in my opinion as his visor, is a great company.
Speaker 1: So I wouldn't get too excited one way or another. Um,
Speaker 1: the reality is percent of people over sixty five have
Speaker 1: received at least one dose of the vaccine. Fully vaccinated
Speaker 1: is of people sixty five and older, and for twelve
Speaker 1: and older fully vaccinated, it's about six. So between natural
Speaker 1: immunity from the forty six million cases of COVID in
Speaker 1: the US plus vaccines. UM, I'm not sure how many
Speaker 1: people in the US are going to need those anti
Speaker 1: viral pills, but it doesn't matter. There's going to be
Speaker 1: a new pandemic. There's going to be a new virus.
Speaker 1: I mean, all of this will be helpful. How much
Speaker 1: we're really going to be using these anti viral pills
Speaker 1: in the next month. Uh, I don't think it's going
Speaker 1: to be great, but it is useful to have. Certainly,
Speaker 1: the rest of the world is going to be struggling
Speaker 1: with COVID and these may be useful against other viruses
Speaker 1: or other viruses that we deal with now epstein bar
Speaker 1: appatitis C. You know, we have to explore where else
Speaker 1: it will be used. So even if it's not going
Speaker 1: to be treating a lot of people in the US,
Speaker 1: there's potential worldwide. That is a really good coin. Dr
Speaker 1: Spader and I do wonder how we get to a
Speaker 1: level where the pandemic becomes endemic in the United States
Speaker 1: while still a pandemic outside of the United States, and
Speaker 1: other variants could pop up exactly good point tim as
Speaker 1: as usually you're on the case. We don't know. Uh. Certainly,
Speaker 1: I think we'll have some protection in the US, both
Speaker 1: unfortunately from infection and natural immunity as well as the vaccinations.
Speaker 1: But there is theoretically, Look, we're seeing breakthrough. You know,
Speaker 1: we're giving alpha shops for a delta virus, and there
Speaker 1: could be another mutation as long as billions of people
Speaker 1: have yet to be infected. There is that potential for
Speaker 1: a new strain coming up. You know, we'll have to
Speaker 1: see what happens. Hopefully that won't be the case, and
Speaker 1: hopefully we will have some protection both from the vaccine
Speaker 1: and or natural immunity, but we don't really know. And
Speaker 1: so former FDI Commissioner Scott Gottlie told c NBC this
Speaker 1: morning that you know, with these new treatments, you could
Speaker 1: see the pandemic end in the US by January. Curious
Speaker 1: to hear your perspective on that, whether that's a realistic
Speaker 1: timeline and also what does the pandemic ending actually look like.
Speaker 1: And we should know he is on the board of FISER.
Speaker 1: That's important. Yeah, right right, No, no invested interests there. Um,
Speaker 1: you know, I think just statistically we're seeing more vaccinations,
Speaker 1: unfortunately some more infections, and I think we will be
Speaker 1: one way or another headed towards um kind of de
Speaker 1: facto close to her community, somewhere in the January February range.
Speaker 1: So I agree with him. I think in the next
Speaker 1: few months, I don't think we can pinpointed January exactly,
Speaker 1: but somewhere in that range January February probably the latest
Speaker 1: in March, the number of cases will be dropping really
Speaker 1: to a very low level um, And you're right, there
Speaker 1: may be a few spoty cases here and there, but
Speaker 1: I think de facto, uh, it will be much much lower.
Speaker 1: And you know, the question is do we change things,
Speaker 1: do we get rid of you know, masks, And we'll
Speaker 1: have to figure out how much of this we carry over.
Speaker 1: But I think from a psychologic point of view, people
Speaker 1: will certainly be feeling more positive, you know, which is important.
Speaker 1: Seconds lafter thirty seconds, I should say, Dr LUs Bader,
Speaker 1: what do you think for timing for kids under the
Speaker 1: age of five being able to get the vaccine? When
Speaker 1: does that happen? Does it happen, especially as here in
Speaker 1: New York and other parts of the country we did
Speaker 1: this week, start to see kids ages five to eleven
Speaker 1: get the shot. Yeah, no, I think that's happening soon.
Speaker 1: Parents have to be involved in decide, you know, the
Speaker 1: pros and cons. That's not a very high risk group
Speaker 1: in terms of death and disability, but they certainly can
Speaker 1: transmit it. Um. It could be a standard in the future.
Speaker 1: I don't think we know yet. At this point. It
Speaker 1: really is an option UM, but certainly not mandatory. I
Speaker 1: think we may need to wait a little more time
Speaker 1: to just see how it works out in that group,
Speaker 1: but certainly it's available if parents want to do it
Speaker 1: all right. Dr In the lust Bider, clinical professor of
Speaker 1: medicine joins us each and every Friday. He's from n
Speaker 1: y U Langones Medical Center, joining us on the phone
Speaker 1: from New York City. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week
Speaker 1: with Carol Messier and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Well, the Bloomberg Financial Innovation Summit wrapped up,
Speaker 1: but earlier today I spoke with Zach Prince, the founder
Speaker 1: and CEO at Block five. In this excerpt, Zach talks
Speaker 1: all about the firms bitcoin rewards credit card check it out.
Speaker 1: The people that are using the card are a mix
Speaker 1: of cryptocurrency enthusiasts who are always looking for more ways
Speaker 1: to earn bitcoin um and and keep growing. There you know,
Speaker 1: stack of of cryptocurrencies, but we've also seen a really
Speaker 1: interesting cohort of folks that that we refer to internally
Speaker 1: as crypto curious people. UM. These tend for us to
Speaker 1: be high earners working in the financial or technology industry. UH.
Speaker 1: They're kind of in a U shaped geographically in the
Speaker 1: US and in major cities on the coasts of California
Speaker 1: or the East coast or Texas or Florida. UM, they
Speaker 1: skew younger and UH, and they spend a lot on
Speaker 1: credit cards. So you know, the average spin that we're
Speaker 1: seeing on Block five cards right now is around five
Speaker 1: thousand dollars a month. Compare that to you know, am
Speaker 1: X or Visa premium cards that are more in the
Speaker 1: two to two range per month. So we've got a young, smart, wealthy, UH,
Speaker 1: you know, really excited consumer base. And and one of
Speaker 1: the things we're gonna be rolling out next year that
Speaker 1: I'm really excited about is UH is merchant offers where retailers,
Speaker 1: UM and other types of firms that want to advertise
Speaker 1: and promote their products to this incredibly high value UH
Speaker 1: segment of customers that use the Block five card. They'll
Speaker 1: be able to do that through offering UH incentives UM
Speaker 1: where you know, right now the base rate is one
Speaker 1: and a half percent Bitcoin back on every transaction. In
Speaker 1: your first ninety days, you're in three and a half percent.
Speaker 1: But we'll have some really citing stuff coming out early
Speaker 1: next year, where at select merchants or you know, for
Speaker 1: select products will get even higher raised than that. Here's
Speaker 1: the thing, though you live in New York. I live
Speaker 1: in New York. We can't actually get this card right now.
Speaker 1: It's not available in New York. Yeah. So, so the
Speaker 1: credit card is available in in forty nine out of
Speaker 1: the fifty states in the US, New York is the
Speaker 1: only one where it's not currently available. What are the
Speaker 1: conversations you're having with regulators to make it available to
Speaker 1: New Yorkers. I imagine it's a that's an audience, that's
Speaker 1: a customer base you want to have. Yeah. Absolutely. UM,
Speaker 1: I can't comment too much on, uh, the the ongoing
Speaker 1: dialogue that that we're having it blocked five with a
Speaker 1: number of regulators, uh, you know in New York. Uh
Speaker 1: included in that. Um. But but I think we're optimistic
Speaker 1: that the card and other products on our platform will
Speaker 1: be available in New York sometime next year. Okay, so
Speaker 1: the first half, second half? What do you think either one?
Speaker 1: I'm really interested in what you said about the crypto
Speaker 1: curious who come to Block five through the rewards credit card.
Speaker 1: Are you seeing the credit card is kind of like
Speaker 1: a you know, for lack of a better term, a
Speaker 1: gateway drug to get people into the Block five platform
Speaker 1: and get people into cryptocurrency who aren't familiar with it
Speaker 1: or don't use other platforms. Yeah. Absolutely, I mean, we
Speaker 1: we think of our kind of position in the market
Speaker 1: when compared to uh, most of the other large cryptocurrency companies,
Speaker 1: which are exchanges. We think of ourselves as a bit
Speaker 1: more of a wealth management type of platform, where we
Speaker 1: want to be offering a suite of products to folks
Speaker 1: that are easy to use, that are really valuable for
Speaker 1: them to use. UM and each product can be the
Speaker 1: hook and in the first kind of acquisition of a
Speaker 1: customer in and of itself. The credit card is just
Speaker 1: the newest um iteration of that. But but yes, absolutely,
Speaker 1: the behavior that we typically see UM is someone will
Speaker 1: start with the credit card or start with our interest
Speaker 1: account product, and then over time they'll also be trading
Speaker 1: or potentially taking out a loan. UH. And we really
Speaker 1: want to build that high level of engagement with our
Speaker 1: clients and we hope that uh, you know, they'll see
Speaker 1: a lot of value out of multiple products that we
Speaker 1: already have and products that we're launching in the future.
Speaker 1: Be in conversations that I had with you and your
Speaker 1: team ahead of of this conversation today, I learned that
Speaker 1: about five of your revenue comes from the credit card
Speaker 1: right now. How do you want that to grow? I think, um,
Speaker 1: you know payments as a category. So the credit card
Speaker 1: is our is our first product in the payments category.
Speaker 1: We expect that to be ten to fifteen percent of
Speaker 1: revenue by the end of next year and close tot
Speaker 1: of our overall revenue by the end of next year.
Speaker 1: By the end of next year, will likely also have
Speaker 1: a debit card available UM and more payment options, especially
Speaker 1: outside the US. Uh. You know, today, for our US
Speaker 1: clients they can send money to and from their bank
Speaker 1: account and their block Fire account. But for our clients
Speaker 1: outside the US, which is about thirty percent of our
Speaker 1: client base, they're still reliant on cryptocurrent see payment rails only.
Speaker 1: So they can send us Bitcoin, ethery um, stable coins,
Speaker 1: but but they can't send us money from their traditional
Speaker 1: bank account yet. And so payments is a big growth
Speaker 1: area for us, both in terms of products and features. Well.
Speaker 1: That was Zach Prance, the founder and CEO at Block five,
Speaker 1: from the Bloomberg Financial Innovation Summit. You can check out
Speaker 1: that entire interview by going to Bloomberg Live dot com.
Speaker 1: We talked a lot about regulation as well, Katie, because
Speaker 1: the company has been in the crosshairs of regulators not
Speaker 1: for its credit card product, although New York State it
Speaker 1: has been, but for its interest sparing crypto account. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and obviously that is a hot topic with regulators. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's not just Block five under scrutiny right now. You
Speaker 1: have coined based to uh, you know, really coming into
Speaker 1: the focus of regulators. Glad you spent a lot of
Speaker 1: time there because I mean, every that's what everyone wants
Speaker 1: to know in the crypto community and the crypto curious
Speaker 1: what's going to happen. It seems like the US has
Speaker 1: really stepped up there. Uh, just focus on the industry
Speaker 1: as a whole. Well, it has been remarkable to hear
Speaker 1: how Block five has been able to capture the zeke
Speaker 1: some capture the moment, especially over the last couple of years.
Speaker 1: The companies on track this year for four hundred and
Speaker 1: seventy five million dollars in gross revenue. The average spent
Speaker 1: on their credit card five thousand dollars a month. Prince
Speaker 1: told me that people pay off those credit cards. They
Speaker 1: don't carry a balance. Not profitably yet though, right, not
Speaker 1: profitably yet, getting there, getting there, all right. Yeah, it's
Speaker 1: worth between three and four billion dollars. That's the last
Speaker 1: funding rounds a company who started like lesson five years ago.
Speaker 1: I mean, crypto companies, they're so hot right now they are.
Speaker 1: We're gonna have more crypto later in the show with
Speaker 1: Michael Son and Hin at Gray Scale. In the meantime,
Speaker 1: you're listening to Bloomberg Radio, and this is Bloomberg Business Week. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no,
Speaker 1: this is not a toy, all right, please, I'll I
Speaker 1: don't want to drive. Good question. This is the drive
Speaker 1: to the Clothes on the Bloomberg Radio. It's just ten
Speaker 1: and a half minutes away from the close of the
Speaker 1: equity markets on this Friday, November five. Tim Stunofeck and
Speaker 1: Kati Gratzeld live in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studios. Very
Speaker 1: pleased now to be joined by a familiar voice to
Speaker 1: our audience. Ryan Dietrich, chief market strategist at LPL Financial,
Speaker 1: joining us once again on the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina, Ryan,
Speaker 1: how are you, Tim? We're making new highs once again.
Speaker 1: I guess you'd say I'm gonna pretty good mood. I mean,
Speaker 1: this is tim the seventh new all time high in
Speaker 1: a row, assuming we closed there, which is looking like
Speaker 1: we will. This is the second time this year we've
Speaker 1: had a seven day all time high wind streak. I
Speaker 1: just was looking these years might sound familiar to the bowls.
Speaker 1: Sixty four, sixty five, and ninety seven are the only
Speaker 1: other years in history that have seen two separate seven
Speaker 1: day wind streaks. That all we're at all time highs.
Speaker 1: This is just truly wait, let me make okay, So
Speaker 1: if we finished higher today, right, we will see the
Speaker 1: two seven day win streaks, which has only happened eight
Speaker 1: other times since nineteen fifty. Well, seven day win streaks
Speaker 1: are all closed it all time highs, seven day win
Speaker 1: streak in a row of new highs, and it happened
Speaker 1: earlier this year, so this is the second time we've
Speaker 1: done that. So it's just, you know, there's so many
Speaker 1: ways we can break it down, right, but that just
Speaker 1: it's just fascinating when you when you um, you see
Speaker 1: it like that. Also, this will be the sixteenth win
Speaker 1: winning day the past eighteen you gotta go back to May.
Speaker 1: The last time we saw that in nineteen seventy one
Speaker 1: before that. So just a lot of ways of saying
Speaker 1: this is. You know, I was one of the guys
Speaker 1: a month ago and said, you know, everybody thought about
Speaker 1: remember the rich dad poor dad guy was given all
Speaker 1: the warnings by October. We said, we just don't see it.
Speaker 1: You know, there's a lot of strength there. Maybe Arnie
Speaker 1: someone better and expected there's a better mean, we thought,
Speaker 1: But my o, my it, we are getting stretched. But
Speaker 1: it's been a great run clearly the last you know,
Speaker 1: several weeks here, well, Ryan's been a great run. I mean,
Speaker 1: those are some amazing size and scopes that you just
Speaker 1: laid out for us. I can see Tim writing them down.
Speaker 1: But where do we go from here? Because you know
Speaker 1: you mentioned October sees only it wasn't supposed to be
Speaker 1: as good as it was. November tends to be pretty
Speaker 1: good for the stock market. But if seasonals didn't hold
Speaker 1: in October, why should they in November? Yeah, Katian, interesting
Speaker 1: about October. Um, when you live an odd number year
Speaker 1: like we had, October is actually really good. What happens
Speaker 1: in an odd number year, Well nothing really because even
Speaker 1: number years you have on elections, we were saying maybe
Speaker 1: pre election Juter, so little strength in October made sense.
Speaker 1: But you're right up six percent, like almost seven percent.
Speaker 1: That's a little stretch, but it is what it is.
Speaker 1: November is the strongest month of the year, and when
Speaker 1: you're up twenty percent for the year heading into the
Speaker 1: usually strong November, it's actually never been lower going back
Speaker 1: to World War Two, higher eight out of eight times.
Speaker 1: So let's put a bow on this. I mean, we
Speaker 1: are stretched extremely, but what's neat about it? Those are
Speaker 1: large caps, I mean small caps. Know everyone's bullish small
Speaker 1: caps now, but you know, small caps with nowhere for
Speaker 1: nine months and just broke out this week. There's a
Speaker 1: lot of other areas that have truly mid caps just
Speaker 1: broke out last week. So there's some areas that are saying, hey,
Speaker 1: we're gonna take a ton for a while. Maybe small
Speaker 1: caps take a well I'm sorry, large caps take a
Speaker 1: well deserved break, but some of these other areas are
Speaker 1: gonna keep it going. And that's the lifeblood of a
Speaker 1: major secular bowl market, which we believe we're in. Different
Speaker 1: groups get to take their turn and we think small
Speaker 1: caps can take the turn for a while. So the question,
Speaker 1: Ryan is what does this I'll tell you about where
Speaker 1: we're going to go for the rest of the year. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean the rest of the year still still looks strong.
Speaker 1: I mean again, we were extremely overstretched, yes, but again,
Speaker 1: you know, we might have a little correction, little pullback,
Speaker 1: but again you know, November December usually strong. There's still
Speaker 1: the tail winds of the FED and then the fiscal policy,
Speaker 1: and and it just still looks good. And let's be honest. Okay,
Speaker 1: what's about the market. Let's about the tommy for a second. Historically,
Speaker 1: when you have new highs and transports and small caps
Speaker 1: and financials, and the financial financials are flat today, yet
Speaker 1: the tenure yields down significantly, I think that's a good thing.
Speaker 1: I think that's encouraging. I mean, these are cyclical things
Speaker 1: that are leading us, and that's the market's way of
Speaker 1: leading the economy. In our views, the six to nine
Speaker 1: months from now, we should have probably a lot stronger economy.
Speaker 1: And people think we all saw that two percent GDP
Speaker 1: print in the third quarter. That was bad, but that
Speaker 1: was also backward looking. Stock market stan economies, better footing
Speaker 1: than most people think here next six to nine months. Okay,
Speaker 1: I'm glad you brought up the bond market because it's
Speaker 1: quite a move that we're seeing. I mean, the tenure
Speaker 1: yield down eight basis points today, that's following pretty much
Speaker 1: an eight basis point decline yesterday as well. What's going on.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm somewhat surprised to see this on a
Speaker 1: week where the FED officially announced that yes, we are tapering. Oh,
Speaker 1: you're right, and it's not just the US. And I'm
Speaker 1: just looking at all the different tenure yields around the
Speaker 1: globe and they're all they're all tanking, um, you know,
Speaker 1: And I think it's it's a unique situation. I think
Speaker 1: it does have something to do with the central bank policy. Um,
Speaker 1: you know, in the in the past we've seen some
Speaker 1: US store squirrely, some squirrely moves after central bank decisions,
Speaker 1: Fed interest rate decisions. But it is some somewhat perplexing
Speaker 1: with the drop in the yields were talking about, which
Speaker 1: is yield curves in general, and it could just be um,
Speaker 1: you know, the market is sniffing out. Okay, well, tapering
Speaker 1: is here. We don't need to readjust to what that
Speaker 1: might mean, but to us, we're still focusing more on
Speaker 1: those earnings, which we understand a little bit more. Those
Speaker 1: earnings were spectacular, as we all you guys have talked
Speaker 1: to guests, talked about it. You know, over eight percent
Speaker 1: of companies be came in way above expectations. Again, start
Speaker 1: of the year, people thought spin of earnings to be
Speaker 1: one sixty five. It's looking like it's gonna be like
Speaker 1: two oh five maybe a little more. That's like twenty
Speaker 1: five percent higher. SMPS up about twenty for the year.
Speaker 1: So kind of interesting how that works. Hey, I'm wondering
Speaker 1: Ryan about and you and Katie were talking about this
Speaker 1: a little bit, but what we learned from the jobs
Speaker 1: report today. I know earnings is what you see driving it,
Speaker 1: But do you get a better idea for the way
Speaker 1: that the economy is recovering based on the numbers and
Speaker 1: the revision? Yeah, I mean that the revision was nice.
Speaker 1: We all kind of assumed that after a last month
Speaker 1: of that really low number, we assumed to be revised higher.
Speaker 1: But I think it just makes sense in the whole
Speaker 1: idea that finally open it up, you know, a little bit,
Speaker 1: more people are getting back to work and then things
Speaker 1: are fairly strong and with some of the benefits that
Speaker 1: officially ended over a month ago, approximately, people are getting
Speaker 1: back in and then we anticial we fully anticipate the
Speaker 1: next two months or so we should see some really
Speaker 1: big numbers. Again, maybe we don't quit it a million
Speaker 1: in a month, but you know, up over five hundred
Speaker 1: thousand the next couple of months makes a lot of
Speaker 1: sense to us. And we're still I think it's what
Speaker 1: about four and a half million jobs away still from
Speaker 1: where were pre pandemic. So you know, there's still that's
Speaker 1: there's still some still still some hiring that is needed
Speaker 1: to even get back free prandemic. This is something we've
Speaker 1: been talking about all day. Do you think those jobs
Speaker 1: ever come back? We do, eventually, I do, But you
Speaker 1: know what the last recession, you know how long it
Speaker 1: took seven years after the financial crisis recession for those
Speaker 1: jobs to come back. There's one thing we've been saying
Speaker 1: at the LFL Research to our more than our nearly
Speaker 1: twenty thousand advisers. Don't expect these jobs to come back
Speaker 1: right away. The stock market comes back, earnings come back,
Speaker 1: GDP comes back, but jobs historically do take a while
Speaker 1: to come back, and they will eventually. It took seven
Speaker 1: years last time, and I might not take that long
Speaker 1: this time, but several years could just be the playbook.
Speaker 1: And right, it's interesting to see bringing it back to
Speaker 1: the bond market. I lived there. Uh, interesting to see.
Speaker 1: So clickles break Apart from yields today, I mean, obviously
Speaker 1: the Fiser pill news really boosting some of those cyclical
Speaker 1: sectors and the Russell two thousand, But how long can
Speaker 1: that dynamic last? Does do yields have to rise? Or
Speaker 1: you know, is this cyclical boost that we're seeing today
Speaker 1: going to fade? No, we would say the cyclical boost
Speaker 1: is not going to fade. I mean you mentioned, you know,
Speaker 1: just the economy in general, we think is getting stronger.
Speaker 1: That helps cyclicals, the Fiser news subcyclicals. I see small
Speaker 1: caps once again up over two percent. Feel like almost
Speaker 1: every day this week they've been up over two percent.
Speaker 1: I know they haven't been, but it feels like that.
Speaker 1: And let's not forget taxes. Right a year ago, right now,
Speaker 1: after the election, most of us would have assumed we'd
Speaker 1: have significantly higher taxes this time a year ago or
Speaker 1: a year later, and here we are, we know more
Speaker 1: spendings coming. But you know, likely we're gonna have much
Speaker 1: lower taxes than we expected. And who does that benefit
Speaker 1: more than anybody? The small caps. Small caps do not
Speaker 1: like higher taxes. And now taxes are, you know, lower
Speaker 1: than what the market anticipated just this time two months ago.
Speaker 1: Let's be honest, and that's another tale. And for those
Speaker 1: cyclical areas, specifically small caps. Ryan Dietrich, chief market strategist
Speaker 1: at LPL Financial, He joins us on the phone from Charlotte,
Speaker 1: North Carolina. Ryan, always great to chat with you. Thank
Speaker 1: you so much for taking the time. Thanks for listening
Speaker 1: to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,
Speaker 1: or Bloomberg dot com. And you can also listen to
Speaker 1: our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio
Speaker 1: or watch us on YouTube. Search to Bloomberg Global News