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Speaker 2: Earlier today on Surveance, we had Dan Ives from What
Speaker 2: Bush Securities on doing a little victory lap on his
Speaker 2: bullish tesla call. The stocks up seventeen percent today, the
Speaker 2: most since March of twenty twenty one, on the back
Speaker 2: of some pretty darn good earnings numbers. Let's break it
Speaker 2: down to Craig Trudell. He's a Global autos editor for
Speaker 2: Bloomberg News. Joins us from Zoom from London on Zoom
Speaker 2: on that technology there. Hey, Craig, what stood out to you?
Speaker 2: Why do you think the stock is up seventeen percent today?
Speaker 2: What did you see it out of earnings release?
Speaker 3: I mean it was really It's really quite a combination,
Speaker 3: because oftentimes it feels like it's not necessarily the case
Speaker 3: that you can count on both both earnings and the
Speaker 3: vision to be positive. In this case, they both both
Speaker 3: were working in Musk's favor. I think the earnings were
Speaker 3: much better than expected. I do think that those expectations
Speaker 3: came down quite a bit over the last year year
Speaker 3: and a half, but they sort of they did exceed
Speaker 3: expectations by pretty significant measures. And the profit margins in particular,
Speaker 3: or something that everybody keeps a very close eye on
Speaker 3: their automotive profit margins when you back out the credits
Speaker 3: that they sell to other automakers for regulatory purposes, those
Speaker 3: in particular, I feel like, are you know, just quarter
Speaker 3: in and quarter out what everybody looks at? That was
Speaker 3: a big beat. And then I think Musk was as
Speaker 3: self assured as I've ever heard. He's never won lacking
Speaker 3: in confidence. And for him to throw out, you know,
Speaker 3: twenty to thirty percent sales increase for next year, I
Speaker 3: think was very surprising to people. After you know, we're
Speaker 3: nine ten months into the year and they've delivered fewer
Speaker 3: vehicles in twenty twenty four than they did in twenty
Speaker 3: twenty three.
Speaker 4: Hey, Craig, So when I'm walking around New York City
Speaker 4: ever so often, every so often I will see, to
Speaker 4: my surprise, a cyber truck. What is the leaatest on that?
Speaker 4: What do they say in earnings? What can we expect there?
Speaker 3: Yeah, they said that it was gross margin positive for
Speaker 3: the first time in the most recent quarter. And so
Speaker 3: we're almost we're roughly a year into the launch of
Speaker 3: that vehicle. So I would I would say that's a
Speaker 3: little on the early side, just relative to how Tesla
Speaker 3: has you know, are done with with the new vehicle
Speaker 3: launches in the past. So so that is another another
Speaker 3: positive I think, you know, in terms of volume, it's
Speaker 3: it's still quite low relative to the Model Y and
Speaker 3: the Model three. That is still where you see the
Speaker 3: vast majority of of Tesla's deliveries, so much so that
Speaker 3: Tesla has even yet to break out that that vehicle.
Speaker 3: And in terms of you know, quarterly results, and so
Speaker 3: you know, I think we have a rough idea of
Speaker 3: how many they've sold. Ironically, based on the recalls that
Speaker 3: the company has had to do with the vehicle. It's
Speaker 3: it's as of the latest recall was, which was just
Speaker 3: a few weeks ago. It was around twenty seven thousand units,
Speaker 3: I believe, So, you know, that's that's pretty small for
Speaker 3: a company that you know, may sell somewhere around one
Speaker 3: point eight million vehicles this year.
Speaker 2: Where is the the focus from the company here in
Speaker 2: terms of they've seems like they have a lot of
Speaker 2: balls in their obviously the car business itself, robotaxis, artificial intelligence.
Speaker 2: What do they what do you think they really want
Speaker 2: you to focus on? What does Elon want investors to
Speaker 2: focus on?
Speaker 5: Do you think?
Speaker 3: I think that's actually really one of the most interesting
Speaker 3: things here. And I think Liam Denning's column for Bloomberg
Speaker 3: Opinion this morning, uh, you know, does a great job
Speaker 3: of laying out this idea that uh, you know, Musk's
Speaker 3: emphasis has really been on, you know, don't don't bother
Speaker 3: with the here and now, forget uh you know, forget
Speaker 3: that the near term earnings. The sort of big potential
Speaker 3: for this company has to do with, you know, selling
Speaker 3: self driving cars and humanoid robots and and things that uh,
Speaker 3: you know, we've heard Elon talk about time and time again,
Speaker 3: but not actually deliver. Uh. And I think you know,
Speaker 3: if if if you're sort of looking at this company
Speaker 3: sort of class half full. It's it's uh, you know,
Speaker 3: I'm I'm less concerned than I am today about the
Speaker 3: here and now of this company and the earnings power
Speaker 3: of Tesla and its current business, and therefore, you know,
Speaker 3: more encouraged that they have, you know, the ability and
Speaker 3: the time and the financial wherewithal to go out and
Speaker 3: pursue those you know, big stretch goals that Musk has
Speaker 3: stepped for the company, and you know, depending on who
Speaker 3: you ask, you know may or may not be able
Speaker 3: to actually follow through on his various predictions.
Speaker 4: Well, from an equity perspective, this stock has been all
Speaker 4: over the place this year. I mean we were just
Speaker 4: looking earlier and year to date the stock was in
Speaker 4: the red. Now it seems as though today's games have
Speaker 4: pushed it to drift about eight ten percent higher for
Speaker 4: the year. What's the goal case here? What are people saying,
Speaker 4: how many how much legs do they have to run?
Speaker 4: Can the stock go much further? What's the consensus there?
Speaker 3: You're absolutely right. I mean back in April this was
Speaker 3: a stock that was down forty three percent for the year,
Speaker 3: and so for them to have, you know, come all
Speaker 3: the way back. They it sold off quite a bit,
Speaker 3: you know, after the Robotaxi unveiling just a few weeks ago,
Speaker 3: and you know, we we've now seen the shares go
Speaker 3: go positive again for the year. We'll see if they
Speaker 3: stay in positive territory. I think, you know, whether whether
Speaker 3: or not the company can can actually grow next year
Speaker 3: with deliveries, I think is really important because even Musk,
Speaker 3: who's you know, sort of perpetually said, you know, next
Speaker 3: year will be our year for autonomy, even he is saying,
Speaker 3: you know that that this cyber cab that they showed
Speaker 3: a couple of weeks ago isn't going to be ready
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty six, and so we need this company
Speaker 3: to bring you know, more affordable vehicles to market, to
Speaker 3: to make teslas more accessible to to to more consumers
Speaker 3: and get back to when it's you know, growing again,
Speaker 3: to put it to put it, put it simply, and
Speaker 3: you know, I think it's still unclear what exactly they
Speaker 3: have to offer that's going to make make help them
Speaker 3: get there.
Speaker 2: Craig, thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate getting
Speaker 2: some of your time and perspective. Craig Trudell, He's a
Speaker 2: global autos editor for Bloomberg News. He's based in London,
Speaker 2: joining us via that zoom thing. You know, I think
Speaker 2: for me, and I think for a lot of investors
Speaker 2: and a lot of people that just think about the
Speaker 2: EV business, what is the ultimate demand out there for EV's.
Speaker 2: We had the early adopters, go, We've had the people
Speaker 2: that just love the technology.
Speaker 5: You know, they've bought their evs.
Speaker 2: Now it's about okay, Now I got to service the
Speaker 2: rest of the people the exact one value the people
Speaker 2: they may want cool design.
Speaker 4: Get the rest of us on board.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I'm just not sure how that plays on.
Speaker 2: We've seen some of the existing auto manufacturers, like the
Speaker 2: Volkswagens and Fords kind of.
Speaker 6: Pulled back a little bit exactly.
Speaker 4: They started to pull back on their development there because
Speaker 4: they weren't really seeing demand as you just mentioned. So
Speaker 4: I think it's really interesting when we think about the
Speaker 4: broader landscape and whether or not they're actually going to
Speaker 4: be able to attract the broader group.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 2: You know, you got that whole thing about the charging network.
Speaker 2: You got to you know a lot of people I
Speaker 2: talked to so say, when the charging network is like
Speaker 2: the gasoline state, network in this country.
Speaker 5: That's one I'll think about an EP.
Speaker 2: I don't know how that all plays out, but great
Speaker 2: day for Tesla and Edge shareholders.
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Speaker 2: Following not getting the deal done? What's going on there?
Speaker 2: Because they need to get people back to work. They
Speaker 2: need to start cracking out some airplanes and getting some
Speaker 2: cash into the door. Next guest has some thoughts on
Speaker 2: all this whole labor negotiation, unrest issues, workplace issues.
Speaker 5: Jessica Kriegel joints.
Speaker 2: It's in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio chief scientists of
Speaker 2: Workplace Culture and the firm is named Culture Partners. So
Speaker 2: there you go, joining us here in our Bloomberg Interactive
Speaker 2: Broker Studio. Thirty five percent seen or thirty percent whatever.
Speaker 2: It was seemed pretty good to me, helping out with
Speaker 2: the four to one k's. Then labor comes back with
Speaker 2: defined pensions. Now my response would be nobody. I'm six
Speaker 2: years old. I don't know one person with a defined
Speaker 2: benefit pension plan that's nineteen seventies. Can you give us
Speaker 2: your thoughts about what's happening between Boeing and their striking workers.
Speaker 5: How do you view it?
Speaker 7: I don't know anyone that has a pension anymore these days,
Speaker 7: but they've been asking for it since the beginning, and
Speaker 7: it's a non starter. They're not going to get the pensions.
Speaker 7: I think Boeing will literally go bankrupt if they have
Speaker 7: to give up those pensions. But they have been asking
Speaker 7: for forty percent since the beginning. Boeing originally offered twenty five.
Speaker 7: They said overwhelmingly absolutely not enough. Then they came back
Speaker 7: at thirty percent, which was their quote unquote best and
Speaker 7: final offer, but apparently not because two weeks later they
Speaker 7: came back with thirty five percent. And they've got two
Speaker 7: thirds of the union that is still saying that's not enough,
Speaker 7: a third has been converted, a third did say yeah,
Speaker 7: I'll go back to work for that. So they're getting
Speaker 7: closer and they're going to have to bridge that gap.
Speaker 7: I think they'll have to go to forty percent, and
Speaker 7: since they're probably not going to get the pension, they
Speaker 7: might have to go above forty percent. They might have
Speaker 7: to go to forty five percent in order to say
Speaker 7: no pensions. But we'll give you more, and we'll give
Speaker 7: you a bigger signing bonus to make up for all
Speaker 7: the time that they haven't been paid. It's hard right now.
Speaker 3: For the union workers.
Speaker 4: Jessica, I know that you are of the opinion that
Speaker 4: management has been so focused on their balance sheet that
Speaker 4: they've pretty much forgotten about the workplace culture. What does
Speaker 4: that look like? I mean, how do you kind of
Speaker 4: turn that around? You did say that it seems like
Speaker 4: it's a little bit too late now.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean CEOs all over the world are focused
Speaker 7: on driving results right now, and some can take that
Speaker 7: so literally to only mean focusing on the financial results.
Speaker 7: But as we're seeing with Boeing, this is a classic
Speaker 7: example if you focus so much on the financials and
Speaker 7: not on the hearts and minds of your employees and
Speaker 7: bringing people along for the ride. Culture is really about
Speaker 7: how you think and act. It's not about the buzzwords
Speaker 7: you have on a poster board about your values. Kelly
Speaker 7: Orper did an interview the other day saying we got
Speaker 7: to focus on culture change, and we're doing that right
Speaker 7: now by revisiting our values. I mean, is that really
Speaker 7: going to move the need for the people who feel
Speaker 7: so much resentment, feel like they've lost so much, they
Speaker 7: have to see leaders take the lead on culture change,
Speaker 7: which means pay us what we think we're owed, show
Speaker 7: up on the floor, stop focusing so much on the
Speaker 7: balance seat, and also focus on quality control. Also focus
Speaker 7: on what we as people bring to the organization and
Speaker 7: what we need.
Speaker 2: High school buddy Mine life long engineer at Boeing in Seattle,
Speaker 2: and he says, hey, you know, he's not a radical dude,
Speaker 2: He's just saying, hey, this is what I think happened.
Speaker 2: They've management left the c suite, left Seattle twenty years
Speaker 2: ago for Chicago.
Speaker 5: Now they're in DC.
Speaker 2: That felt to a lot of these engineering types who
Speaker 2: take pride in the work that we lost their support,
Speaker 2: or we lost their support of the engineers drive Boeing
Speaker 2: and they started focusing more on profitability as opposed to
Speaker 2: the engineering prowess of Boeing.
Speaker 5: And that's twenty years ago.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and one could argue they think that's the beginning
Speaker 2: of perhaps some of these problems that we're now seeing
Speaker 2: twenty years later, I don't know how you get that back.
Speaker 7: Well. I think they've done a good job actually, because
Speaker 7: Kelly Orperg is someone with an engineering background, so they
Speaker 7: have realized they don't need to be encounter at the
Speaker 7: c suite level. They need someone who's been an engineer,
Speaker 7: who understands he's saying, let's get back to the floor.
Speaker 7: He bought a house in Seattle. He said, we're going
Speaker 7: back to Seattle. So there is already a shift to
Speaker 7: make up for what that is a well documented complaint
Speaker 7: that the union workers has if you lost the soul
Speaker 7: of this company, and this is a fight for the soul, right.
Speaker 2: I always tell people that one of the great drives
Speaker 2: from an airport to a downtown is in Seattle. You
Speaker 2: get out of your plane in Sea Tech, you get
Speaker 2: on one over that eye whatever that is, and you
Speaker 2: drive to Seattle.
Speaker 5: It's about a forty minute drive in.
Speaker 2: On the left of you on the highway for almost
Speaker 2: forty miles is Boeing, and it's airfield after airfre right,
Speaker 2: and hangar after hangar, and plane after plane, and they're
Speaker 2: taken off and flane. All about that to me is
Speaker 2: Boeing and the fact when senior management left there, it
Speaker 2: seemed like for a lot of people, oh lost to
Speaker 2: heart and soul there.
Speaker 4: So, in building off of Paul's earlier question, I'm curious,
Speaker 4: did it seem as though there was a stronger, more
Speaker 4: intense crackdown after all the hiccups that Boeing has seen
Speaker 4: this year, or does this seem like it's kind of
Speaker 4: been a bubbling up point and it's finally bubbling over.
Speaker 4: As to why workers are so unhappy.
Speaker 7: Well, Boeing has had a lot of very public embarrassments
Speaker 7: right in recent times, and I think the employees are
Speaker 7: saying the executives are not protecting the company's brand and reputation,
Speaker 7: so we will We are not okay with the quality control,
Speaker 7: we are not okay with the way that production has
Speaker 7: deteriorated over time, and so we are going to fight
Speaker 7: to do things the right way. Because these are engineers
Speaker 7: who take a lot of value. They love the fact
Speaker 7: that they can produce some of the most high quality
Speaker 7: machines in the world. Right they don't want to create
Speaker 7: garbage material anymore. So they're fighting for it. And I
Speaker 7: think this is something that will get resolved. It will
Speaker 7: absolutely get resolved. They're going to get back to the table.
Speaker 7: Maybe a few more weeks. Some people say we're only
Speaker 7: at the halfway point. Either way, they're going to come together.
Speaker 7: Boeing will get back on track. I'm not worried about
Speaker 7: the future of the company.
Speaker 2: Let's pivot a little bit away from Boeing get back
Speaker 2: to another key issue which I keep raising because I
Speaker 2: just wonder how things revolving. Are people back in the office,
Speaker 2: what's the new oral? I guess we are when you
Speaker 2: talk to your clients. Yeah, Are we in a permanent
Speaker 2: hybrid situation?
Speaker 1: Now?
Speaker 5: No?
Speaker 7: I mean right now. I think twenty twenty five is
Speaker 7: going to be the year of forcing people back into
Speaker 7: the office. Amazon just made an announcement that people have
Speaker 7: to be back five days a week. I think that
Speaker 7: is regressive thinking, if you want my personal opinion, because
Speaker 7: think of the language people use when they talk about
Speaker 7: return to the office. Go back to the office. It's
Speaker 7: going backwards, as if COVID was just a pause and
Speaker 7: now we can press play again and nothing's changed. But
Speaker 7: the reality is culture has changed. If culture is how
Speaker 7: people think and act, we had a major experience that
Speaker 7: evolved our thinking about how we can be productive. And
Speaker 7: I think companies that are forcing people back into the
Speaker 7: office are counting on some people to leave that it's
Speaker 7: a way to do layoffs without doing layoffs, and they're
Speaker 7: relying on activity based manager. It's easy to manage activity
Speaker 7: of your employees if you can see them at the desk.
Speaker 7: The more elevated way of leading a team is to
Speaker 7: manage to outcomes and you don't have to be in
Speaker 7: the office to manage to outcomes. So companies that want
Speaker 7: the competitive edge on attracting talent from all over the nation,
Speaker 7: they're going to allow people to work from home. And
Speaker 7: companies that have a real estate bill that they're worried about,
Speaker 7: they're going to force people back into the office.
Speaker 4: And I mean our incentives enough as food and all
Speaker 4: the different things enough to lure people back into the office.
Speaker 4: Or do you think that a lot of people are
Speaker 4: really hard and fast I want to be removed.
Speaker 7: Well, it depends on the person, right There are some
Speaker 7: people who are just excited to get back into the office.
Speaker 7: They want the kombucha Fridays and the Hawaiian shirt Tuesdays
Speaker 7: or whatever it is that people do right now to
Speaker 7: create quote unquote culture. Those are not culture things. Those
Speaker 7: are just perks, they're fun. Ultimately, it's how are we
Speaker 7: making decisions, how are people thinking? How are we committed
Speaker 7: to the mission of the organization? And I can do
Speaker 7: that at home or I can do that in the office.
Speaker 7: And I would ask, if you're questioning right now as
Speaker 7: a leader, whether or not you should force people back
Speaker 7: into the office. Is think about what are the results
Speaker 7: we're trying to achieve, What are the shared beliefs within
Speaker 7: our team that are getting in the way of hitting
Speaker 7: those results, and what do we need those beliefs to
Speaker 7: be And is working from home going to help drive
Speaker 7: those correct beliefs that will get us the results or not.
Speaker 7: That's really the deeper work of leadership, rather than add
Speaker 7: do we get people in the office three or five
Speaker 7: days a week? So that's that's arbitrary.
Speaker 5: I think that Amazon might be a little bit of
Speaker 5: harbring rym. We might see more companies.
Speaker 7: Yeah, well absolutely. Also, Amazon is not going to have
Speaker 7: trouble replacing people that that don't want right because it's Amazon,
Speaker 7: and so there are companies like that that can do
Speaker 7: whatever they want and they'll be able to hire other companies.
Speaker 7: They have to be a little bit more strategic about
Speaker 7: how theyre going to attract talent.
Speaker 5: Interesting.
Speaker 2: I guess it's just ever evolving, satary evolved a Bloomberg
Speaker 2: or four.
Speaker 5: Days a week. I don't know, you will see. I'm
Speaker 5: fine a week working. Just find for me.
Speaker 2: Jessica Krigle, thank you so much for joining us. Jessica Krikles,
Speaker 2: she's a chief scientist of workplace culture at Culture Partners,
Speaker 2: joining us. Lifer in a Bloomberg interactive studio talking about
Speaker 2: Boeing and just kind of the workplace in general, kind
Speaker 2: of the evolving US workplace.
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Speaker 2: All Right, it is earnings, fast and furious. I think
Speaker 2: today was probably the busiest day, or will be the
Speaker 2: busiest day of the week. What's been a busy week,
Speaker 2: and we've heard from pretty much everybody across the board,
Speaker 2: all types of industries. One of the companies is United
Speaker 2: Parcel Service UPS came out with some numbers. The stock
Speaker 2: is up five percent, today, So some pretty good numbers.
Speaker 2: Presumably Lee Claskal is he's right here now to Lee Clascott,
Speaker 2: Senior Transport Logistics and Shipping annols for Bloomberg Intelligence. He
Speaker 2: joins us from our Princeton, New Jersey offices. Hayley talk
Speaker 2: to us about UPS stocks up five percent. So I
Speaker 2: guess the market like what they saw.
Speaker 8: Yeah, hey, Paul, Yeah, So UPS had a pretty good
Speaker 8: print this morning, and they all so you know, indicated
Speaker 8: that earnings might be a little better than expectations are
Speaker 8: in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 6: UPS has been kind of a show me story.
Speaker 8: They've been doing a lot of self help things, but
Speaker 8: a lot of those initiatives really haven't bubbled up to
Speaker 8: the bottom line or the revenue numbers, just given the
Speaker 8: difficult backdrop. And what we saw today was earnings per
Speaker 8: share finally inflected, earnings per share growth finally inflected positively
Speaker 8: after seven quarterly declines. So I see things seem to
Speaker 8: be working for UPS. And you know, we expect earnings
Speaker 8: expectations for the fourth quarter and probably next year to
Speaker 8: move higher on kind of the progress that they've made
Speaker 8: thus far.
Speaker 4: Hey, Lee, I mean you mentioned that difficult backdrop. As
Speaker 4: I'm looking at ups, we're seeing shares down about twelve
Speaker 4: percent year to date. As we're thinking about the future,
Speaker 4: I mean, how much of a move higher do you
Speaker 4: really anticipate as we're thinking about the year end, should
Speaker 4: investors start to see some gains here?
Speaker 8: Well, we don't do buy whole cell recommendations of Bloomberg Intelligence,
Speaker 8: but you know, what we can tell you is that
Speaker 8: the company are doing the right things to see their
Speaker 8: margins expand and and you know, our view is that
Speaker 8: margin expansion could be more than than where where the
Speaker 8: market currently is at. And a lot of that has
Speaker 8: to do with a lot of the cost savings that
Speaker 8: they've been able to generate. They've been able to, you know,
Speaker 8: shut down various shifts, sorting shifts, They've been able to
Speaker 8: close some facilities and just do more with the network
Speaker 8: that they have. That and if you fast forward that,
Speaker 8: you know, maybe you know, volumes could start to improve
Speaker 8: a little more meaningfully from here. You know, they expect
Speaker 8: a better peak season this year, albeit probably not as
Speaker 8: as robust as they were probably planning for three months ago,
Speaker 8: but the peak season is expected to grow and the
Speaker 8: reason for you know, them tempering the outlook for the
Speaker 8: peak season is given the fact that the peak season
Speaker 8: is condensed. The peak season, for those don't know, is
Speaker 8: from Black Friday to Christmas Eve. And because of that
Speaker 8: condensed peaks time, you know, a lot of retailers think
Speaker 8: that some consumers might be going to the stores versus
Speaker 8: ordering online.
Speaker 6: And making that gamble whether or not you get it
Speaker 6: under the tree in time.
Speaker 2: Haylee, we love talking to you for a variety of reason.
Speaker 2: It's not the least of which is the companies you
Speaker 2: cover lead give us a real sense of how the
Speaker 2: underlying economy is doing, whether it's stuff's being shipped by
Speaker 2: rail or truck or air cargo. What's GPS telling you
Speaker 2: about kind of underlying activity that they're seeing.
Speaker 8: Well, first and foremost, I love talking to you as well, Paul,
Speaker 8: But you know what I think they're telling us is
Speaker 8: the consumer is doing okay. You know, it's not doom
Speaker 8: and gloom going into to the holiday season.
Speaker 6: I think that you know, you are going to see growth.
Speaker 8: Like I said earlier, that growth might be a little
Speaker 8: more tempered, but you know, we are seeing a return
Speaker 8: to kind of seasonality, which is really good because it's
Speaker 8: not just going to impact the parcel providers. It's going
Speaker 8: to impact the truckload providers, you know, like the Knights,
Speaker 8: Swifts and the Warners of the world. It's going to
Speaker 8: impact the intermodial providers like the JB Hunts and the
Speaker 8: hub groups of.
Speaker 6: The world, and the railroads as well.
Speaker 8: So, you know what we're hearing about the consumer and
Speaker 8: the fact that B to B volume grew for the
Speaker 8: first time in a long time within their domestic business
Speaker 8: is also telling me, you know that things might be
Speaker 8: might be a little better in twenty twenty five. So
Speaker 8: you know, we're pretty optimistic that demand should be increasing
Speaker 8: across most of the modes that we cover, and you know,
Speaker 8: twenty twenty five, in our view, is going to be
Speaker 8: a much better year than twenty twenty four was.
Speaker 4: And I do know back in about April, I remember
Speaker 4: that it became UPS became USPS's primary air cargo provider.
Speaker 4: Is that still a topic of conversation? How much does
Speaker 4: that really add to the business if at all?
Speaker 6: Yeah, so it is a great business win for them.
Speaker 8: You know, FedEx walked away from it for various reasons
Speaker 8: and UPS decided to pick it up. It's going to
Speaker 8: be consistent volumes at a consistently good margin.
Speaker 6: And you know what they're doing is.
Speaker 8: They're really restructuring their overall business. They've been getting out
Speaker 8: of businesses that are a lot more volatile. They just
Speaker 8: sold their freight brokerage business, which was called Coyote to
Speaker 8: r XO and and then that was earlier last month.
Speaker 8: And then in twenty twenty one they sold their less
Speaker 8: than truckload business UPS Freight to TFI and those were
Speaker 8: not great businesses for UPS. And now UPS can really
Speaker 8: focus on being a parcel provider. And to answer your question,
Speaker 8: what that US postal service business can also do, It's
Speaker 8: going to build density, and density is the name of
Speaker 8: the game in any transportation company, and so they can
Speaker 8: build off that density with other volumes.
Speaker 2: All right, Lee, thanks so much for joining us. I'd
Speaker 2: appreciate getting your expertise and all things logistics, railroads, trucks,
Speaker 2: the sea transport, the air transport. Lee covers it all
Speaker 2: and again his transports companies just got to give you
Speaker 2: a real good insight into the strength of the overall
Speaker 2: economy when you can see kind of what types of
Speaker 2: goods are being transported all around the country and the world.
Speaker 5: So some good stuff there.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 5: Thirty R Normal lend us sitting in for Alex still on.
Speaker 2: Paul Sweney, You're live here in on our Bloomberg Interactive
Speaker 2: Broker Studio, streaming video live on what.
Speaker 5: Is that YouTube?
Speaker 2: That's the interesting that thing the internetew dot com. So
Speaker 2: just head over there and search Bloomberg Podcast, Bloomberg News
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Speaker 5: We got to pull out this morning. I'm just gonna
Speaker 5: guess dead heat.
Speaker 2: Jody Schneider joined political news director for Bloomberg Television and Radio.
Speaker 2: She joined us in Washington, DC. Jody, what do we
Speaker 2: learn from the latest Bloomberg Morning Console poll.
Speaker 9: Well, it reconfirms Paul that things are just very very close.
Speaker 9: Probably couldn't get any closer. It is that dead heat.
Speaker 9: We've seen some of that during this last year or
Speaker 9: so of the polls we've done with Morning Consult, but
Speaker 9: this one is as close as ever. And of course
Speaker 9: it's the last one before the election, So it matters
Speaker 9: as much as ever we're really seeing, you know, it's
Speaker 9: up maybe a point or half a point in particular states,
Speaker 9: but it's forty nine forty nine when you get to
Speaker 9: all the swing states, and we are focused on those
Speaker 9: swing states, the ones where they are going to determine
Speaker 9: who wins the electoral college, which is who wins the presidency.
Speaker 4: Definitely, And Jody, as you just said, we are really
Speaker 4: coming up less than two weeks away from the election.
Speaker 4: What are you seeing from those swing states? What has
Speaker 4: really been general consensus of this latest chapter.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I think the poll really reflects that that it
Speaker 9: is so close that almost you know, too close to call.
Speaker 9: In a number of states. There's some talk about, well,
Speaker 9: one or the other may win the popular vote, but
Speaker 9: that is, you know, almost beside the point. It is
Speaker 9: those swing states where in the past somebody has won
Speaker 9: by twenty thousand votes or forty thousand votes. Hillary Clinton
Speaker 9: lost the blue Wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania
Speaker 9: by fewer than eighty thousand votes in twenty sixteen, so
Speaker 9: it really is kind of, you know, down to that
Speaker 9: so called knife's edge in the final days of the campaign,
Speaker 9: and that's why you see the candidates in their running
Speaker 9: mates almost exclusively focusing in those seven swing states, and
Speaker 9: the Democratic candidate so much on those blue wall states.
Speaker 9: She really needs to win there.
Speaker 2: Jody, what are your sources tell you about the timing
Speaker 2: of when we may have some resolution all on the
Speaker 2: actual vote itself. Will we know eleven pm on November fifth,
Speaker 2: or will be hours later, days later?
Speaker 9: Yeah, that's the question everybody I know is asking me.
Speaker 9: So that's what everybody wants to know. When are we
Speaker 9: gonna know? And we may well not know that night,
Speaker 9: not only the presidential but the House of Representatives. The
Speaker 9: House is going to be a close race for control
Speaker 9: of the House and it's going to go through New
Speaker 9: York and California, So we may not know that night
Speaker 9: who will control the House will probably know the Senate.
Speaker 9: The presidential we may not know. In twenty twenty, of course,
Speaker 9: we didn't find out till Saturday, but you might recall
Speaker 9: two thousand, where we didn't know until December when it
Speaker 9: went to the Supreme Court. So we may be in
Speaker 9: a situation like that, and you know, the markets may
Speaker 9: not wake up to that uncertainty until it starts happening
Speaker 9: as well, which will be something else for us to
Speaker 9: cover here at Bloomberg.
Speaker 4: How exactly are the candidates strategizing in this last stretch
Speaker 4: to mobilize voters.
Speaker 9: Yeah, so they're really going to those swing states, you know,
Speaker 9: trying to really make their case. They're so called closing arguments.
Speaker 9: Kamala Harris is trying to do that in and we
Speaker 9: heard her at a CNN town hall doing this last night,
Speaker 9: sort of saying, I am you know, I have a
Speaker 9: plan for the future, but I have experience with I've
Speaker 9: been the vice president for the past four years, and
Speaker 9: Donald Trump will be a danger to America. That's her case.
Speaker 9: Donald Trump's case has been to kind of double down
Speaker 9: on his rhetoric of making people feel that this administration
Speaker 9: has failed them. He's done it on the economy, and
Speaker 9: he's been successful on the economy, including a chosen our
Speaker 9: poll that he is the one people trust more on
Speaker 9: the economy. And he's making the case that to leave
Speaker 9: this with her would be a danger to the future
Speaker 9: of this country. So they're both making arguments based somewhat
Speaker 9: more on that their other, their opponent, would do harmful
Speaker 9: things to the future of America than as much on
Speaker 9: their record. Their closing arguments are kind of mirror images
Speaker 9: of themselves in some ways.
Speaker 2: Jody, turnout, I've been told by the experts is really
Speaker 2: really important here.
Speaker 5: What do we expect turnout to be?
Speaker 2: And number two, does either party have an advantage in
Speaker 2: driving turnout?
Speaker 9: Yeah, so I think turnout is key.
Speaker 10: It's certainly key.
Speaker 9: In those swing states. The other interesting fact, Paul, to
Speaker 9: edit all this is early voting. We're seeing massive early voting.
Speaker 9: I think it's as much as eighteen million or more
Speaker 9: people have already voted, either by mail or in person,
Speaker 9: and we will be seeing a massive amount of that
Speaker 9: in the next week, historic amounts of early voting. Now,
Speaker 9: in the past people said early voting tended to favor Democrats,
Speaker 9: but now the Republicans are pushing it as well, and
Speaker 9: it's becoming more the fabric of people thinking, well, why
Speaker 9: should I wait? Why should I wait till election day?
Speaker 9: So some of these closing arguments really might be falling
Speaker 9: and so called jaffiers because people have already voted. And
Speaker 9: we'll see when we do the historical analysis of this
Speaker 9: campaign how early voting played into it.
Speaker 4: With about thirty seconds or less. Just how important is
Speaker 4: age in this election? Is that playing a factor at all?
Speaker 9: It's playing a factor, but more gender seems to be.
Speaker 9: It really does seem to be a very gender focused election.
Speaker 9: The Democrats, you know, winning more women and Donald Trump
Speaker 9: kind of doubling down on the mail vote, both older
Speaker 9: and younger. But it really gender seems to be the
Speaker 9: dividing line here more than age.
Speaker 5: Jody, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 2: Really appreciate your reporting as always. Jody Schneider. She's political
Speaker 2: news director for Bloomberg Television and Radio. She joins us
Speaker 2: from our newsroom in Washington, d C.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 1: Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 5: Normal.
Speaker 2: Linda is sitting in for Alex Steele Paul Swhen you
Speaker 2: allow here on Bloomberg in nactive broke restview streaming the
Speaker 2: video thing on YouTube, so aheadver YouTube dot com search
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast. That's where your finest is. John was just
Speaker 2: reporting new home sales give in a little bit better
Speaker 2: than expect it. Let's break it down with an expert.
Speaker 2: We can do that with Bloomberg Intelligence. They got everybody
Speaker 2: over there, Drew reading, he's a Bloomberg Intelligence US home
Speaker 2: building analyst, Drew.
Speaker 5: What you make of these numbers?
Speaker 6: Here?
Speaker 2: The new home sales seven hundred and thirty eight thousand.
Speaker 2: Consensus was seven hundred and twenty thousand, so a little
Speaker 2: bit better than expected.
Speaker 11: Yeah, and not surprised to see a good number in September.
Speaker 11: You have to remember in September we had mortgage rates
Speaker 11: at the lowest level in about a year and a half,
Speaker 11: so they hit as low as six point one. So
Speaker 11: we got the data today and it's already backward looking
Speaker 11: because since the beginning of October rates have shot back up.
Speaker 11: It's about six point nine percent, and if you look
Speaker 11: at the payment on a monthly basis, that's about nine
Speaker 11: percent higher. So what we have heard is things have
Speaker 11: started to slow down. The builders are noting more seasonality,
Speaker 11: so we would expect things to slow down a little
Speaker 11: bit as we get October data.
Speaker 4: So as we think about the FED moving forward, Drew
Speaker 4: and people expecting potential cuts what does this mean for
Speaker 4: home builders when we're thinking about it on a longer scale,
Speaker 4: looking further out.
Speaker 11: Yeah, well, certainly, you know, it's all about affordability, and
Speaker 11: mortgage rates are certainly a key part of that. Our
Speaker 11: expectation was that we would get somewhere in that low
Speaker 11: six percent range that would help spur at a little
Speaker 11: bit of activity. I think you really need to see
Speaker 11: a five handle to see more robust activity. But it's
Speaker 11: important to mind it's not just about rates, it's prices too.
Speaker 11: Prices are up more than fifty percent since the beginning
Speaker 11: of twenty twenty. That's really the biggest component. And you know,
Speaker 11: we did an analysis on monthly payments relative income and
Speaker 11: based strictly on that just to show you how how
Speaker 11: to whack the market is. Right now, prices would need
Speaker 11: to fall somewhere about twenty five percent in order for
Speaker 11: monthly payments relative income to fall in line with historical averages.
Speaker 11: So it's a combination of what's happening with prices and
Speaker 11: what's happening with rates.
Speaker 4: Right, and so if we were to see a potential
Speaker 4: uptake in we're to see a flight of existing homes
Speaker 4: to come back on the market. How much competition do
Speaker 4: you think that would actually pose for home builders when
Speaker 4: we're thinking about new properties.
Speaker 11: Yeah, that's a great question. Inventories are up about twenty
Speaker 11: percent compared to last year. At the national level, they're
Speaker 11: still down about twenty percent compared to pre pandemic levels,
Speaker 11: but it's very market specific. You're seeing markets in Texas
Speaker 11: think you know, Austin, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio, as
Speaker 11: well as most of the markets across Florida where inventories
Speaker 11: are rising, you know, anywhere from thirty to fifty percent year.
Speaker 11: Every year their back above twenty nineteen levels. So the
Speaker 11: competitive dynamic is certainly shifting for builders in those markets,
Speaker 11: particularly in Texas, and I think what you'll ultimately see
Speaker 11: is that builders are going to have to continue to
Speaker 11: lean on incentives. I think it could start to put
Speaker 11: some downward pressure on prices as we move forward. So
Speaker 11: if builders want to clear that speco inventory that they've
Speaker 11: build up over the last year, they're gonna have to
Speaker 11: keep their foot down on the gas pedal in terms
Speaker 11: of their use of sales incentives.
Speaker 2: Hey, Drew, thanks for joining us. We appreciate you hopping
Speaker 2: on there. Drew reading home Building analysts Bloomberg Intelligence from Princeton,
Speaker 2: New Jersey a little bit better than expected new home sales,
Speaker 2: so we note that.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: All right. When I started in the media business on
Speaker 2: Wall Street thirty five years ago, my clients were radio companies,
Speaker 2: TV companies, magazine companies, newspaper companies. Then along came cable television,
Speaker 2: and then seeing the Internet, can You Age?
Speaker 5: Which upended everything.
Speaker 2: Our next guest was the MNA banker for the old media,
Speaker 2: and now he's the lead m and A banker for
Speaker 2: the new media. Terry kwasa JOINTS and he's the founder
Speaker 2: and CEO of Luma Partners. I work with two moons
Speaker 2: ago back on Wall Street when we were banking some
Speaker 2: of those older media companies. Now it's all about Google, Facebook, Snapchat,
Speaker 2: all these kinds of Amazon now major player and digital advertising. Terry,
Speaker 2: thanks so much for joining us here in our studio.
Speaker 2: You are in the biggest best industry I can think of,
Speaker 2: I mean digital advertising. It has exploded over the last
Speaker 2: ten to fifteen years. You banked the companies that support
Speaker 2: the technology of all those big media companies that we like,
Speaker 2: like Google and Facebook. Talk to us about the state
Speaker 2: of digital advertising today. Is this as strong as it
Speaker 2: it's been over the last several years.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 10: Look, first of all, you're absolutely right to denote that,
Speaker 10: you know, this is massive. We're talking about a trillion
Speaker 10: dollars of spend globally. And what's interesting about it is
Speaker 10: that the vast majority of that spend is actually those
Speaker 10: ads are bought programmatically and all that that's just a
Speaker 10: fancy word meaning auction bought in auctions, and so there's
Speaker 10: a lot of technology that requires sort of real time
Speaker 10: assessment and targeting of each particular ad slot that happens
Speaker 10: in milliseconds. So the technology has completely moved to this
Speaker 10: sort of software intermediated world. From a from a business
Speaker 10: model standpoint, the giants that you mentioned there are somewhere
Speaker 10: in the ninety plus percent of their revenue comes from advertising.
Speaker 10: Not everyone can be bloomberg, right, I mean, I mean
Speaker 10: so and but but it's beyond just those large platforms
Speaker 10: so media and historically subscription based media like a Bloomberg,
Speaker 10: but also like a Netflix and like a you know,
Speaker 10: Disney that had these sort of B to B models
Speaker 10: in the old TV world that you and I covered
Speaker 10: well decades ago.
Speaker 5: That's all.
Speaker 10: They're all now shifting to advertising in order to garner
Speaker 10: larger audiences and supplement their revenues.
Speaker 4: I mean, obviously, this is ever evolving space. It seems
Speaker 4: like there's something new every single day. How do you
Speaker 4: all stay nimble?
Speaker 10: You're absolutely right, Nora. In fact, I describe this sector
Speaker 10: as having uniquely sorry, having five attributes scale. I mentioned
Speaker 10: at trillion dollars, right, growth, So if you looked at
Speaker 10: the combin and a growth rate of digital advertising, it's
Speaker 10: over twenty percent for twenty years. Name another industry that
Speaker 10: has that characteristic of growth. I'll wait, there is none.
Speaker 10: It has fragmentation. There are thousands of companies across this
Speaker 10: ecosystem that either offer services, media, data, software. It's very,
Speaker 10: very complex. That's the fourth item. Tremendous amount of complexity.
Speaker 10: And fifth what you mentioned, Noura, it's dynamic. It just
Speaker 10: keeps changing. If you don't like it. Wait three months,
Speaker 10: it'll be different. Either there will be a new technology,
Speaker 10: or there'll be a new media channel witness TikTok vertical video,
Speaker 10: a short form video, or there'll be a new technology
Speaker 10: policy Google with you know, removing cookies, which is there
Speaker 10: sort of identifier. Or there could be new regulation and
Speaker 10: we're seeing a virulent antitrust and privacy legislation from both
Speaker 10: the US government and Europe.
Speaker 5: That's kind of where I wanted to go.
Speaker 2: Terry and his firm, Luma Partners, they host these leading
Speaker 2: conferences where all these tech people come together.
Speaker 5: And I go to these conferences and.
Speaker 2: I don't know anyone, I don't know any company, but
Speaker 2: I just step back and I say, collectively, these are
Speaker 2: the people that put all the ads on the Googles
Speaker 2: of Facebook.
Speaker 5: They figure it out. That's how I think about it.
Speaker 2: Talk to us about M and A in your business,
Speaker 2: because it's comprised of in the advertising technology space that
Speaker 2: supports all the digital advertising that we all experience every day,
Speaker 2: a lot of M and A. That's where you fit.
Speaker 2: Talk to us about how that activity has been over
Speaker 2: the last several years.
Speaker 10: So first of all, you're right, your non recognition of
Speaker 10: these people that are really driving the Internet. I mean,
Speaker 10: think about it, right, who gets the headlines? Rupert Murdoch,
Speaker 10: David Zaslov, right, great guys, meaningless as in terms of
Speaker 10: their power and influence over how this all gets made.
Speaker 10: The real people are these people that we don't even know,
Speaker 10: you know, doing sort of B to B advertising technology,
Speaker 10: certainly do so. This sector has gone through a wave
Speaker 10: of new company formation, and there's always new innovation, so
Speaker 10: there's always new companies, but it's direly in need of consolidation.
Speaker 10: That's where I identified this as an opportunity fourteen years
Speaker 10: ago when I formed Luma, and it's completely manifested and has.
Speaker 6: A lot more to go.
Speaker 10: Lately, the last eighteen months or eighteen of the last
Speaker 10: twenty four months, we saw a huge slowdown in NEMENA
Speaker 10: activity at ten year low because you know, the economy,
Speaker 10: all these macro uncertainties. People weren't sure what was going
Speaker 10: to happen with interest rates, with inflation, and so basically
Speaker 10: everyone cut costs, improved their profitability in twenty two and
Speaker 10: twenty three in anticipation for a recession that never came.
Speaker 10: I swear to God, if we get to the end
Speaker 10: of twenty four and there's not a recession. Jerome Powell
Speaker 10: deserves to be on the twenty dollars bill. I mean,
Speaker 10: what an incredible job. And so now everyone is like, wait,
Speaker 10: we haven't done m and A for a couple of years.
Speaker 10: We direly need new technologies and new markets to enter
Speaker 10: and by the way, we've got our ebit done a
Speaker 10: great place right now and we can't and the ad
Speaker 10: market continues to grow. So not only is there not
Speaker 10: a recession, digital ANTSPENT is growing fourteen percent this year
Speaker 10: I'm talking about is the trillion dollar industry growing at
Speaker 10: fourteen percent. Those are large numbers, so every year it
Speaker 10: forms like an industry size of growth. And next year
Speaker 10: forecasted to grow twelve percent. So it turns out you
Speaker 10: can't cut your way to growth. And so they're back
Speaker 10: on the bandwagon and strategic M and A is coming back.
Speaker 2: The biggest platforms, as you mentioned before, the Facebook's, the Googles,
Speaker 2: the Amazons of the world. It feels like Washington is
Speaker 2: they got their regulatory sites trained upon them. How does
Speaker 2: that impact kind of everybody else.
Speaker 5: In the industry.
Speaker 10: Excellent question. Here is my problem with the DOJ and
Speaker 10: the FTC so Jonathan and Lena, they're well intended policies
Speaker 10: to curb big tech. No one would argue with that
Speaker 10: big tech. Look, come on, man, these companies have enormous power,
Speaker 10: so by all means rain them in. However, the effect
Speaker 10: of the well intended legislation was to put a pall
Speaker 10: on all M and A activity. I mean, when they
Speaker 10: blocked the Simon and Schuster deal, it's like it's like, sorry,
Speaker 10: nineteen seventy seven called and they want their antitrust legislation back.
Speaker 10: So it's it's totally ludicrous. They've i think overstepped. And
Speaker 10: the net result is, you know, if you've got a
Speaker 10: half a dozen companies that are omni powerful like at Amazon, Google, Facebook,
Speaker 10: you know, and it's it's it's companies numbered seven through
Speaker 10: fifty that you need to be doing M and A
Speaker 10: in order to compete with the top six, and now
Speaker 10: they're foreclosed from doing so. And so actually it's had
Speaker 10: the opposite effect. It's actually increased monopoly power.
Speaker 4: So let's talk AI. I mean, not that big of
Speaker 4: a deal, but I'm curious, how does it actually impact
Speaker 4: your business? Of course, that is something that everyone's been
Speaker 4: watching in terms of AI and how obviously it trickles
Speaker 4: into social media and how we think about the Internet
Speaker 4: and things of that nature. And I'm sure it's very,
Speaker 4: very critical to digital ad.
Speaker 10: So I put AI in the category of shiny new objects, right,
Speaker 10: I mean, and marketing loves the shiny new object. People
Speaker 10: in this industry went crazy for Oh my god, five
Speaker 10: g web three NFTs And you know, I feel there's
Speaker 10: a responsibility, as someone who understands what's going on here
Speaker 10: to call balls and strikes. So I said, this is nonsense,
Speaker 10: this is bunk. You're wasting your dollars by all means.
Speaker 10: Marketers spend in those categories for experimental purposes to look
Speaker 10: cool and speak at conferences. But you're just know that
Speaker 10: you're lighting all of that money on fire. Now AI.
Speaker 10: There's a lot of hype around AI. So wait, are
Speaker 10: we saying this is yet another shiny new object. I
Speaker 10: believe this is one where there's both hype and reality.
Speaker 10: In fact, one could make the argument that digital advertising
Speaker 10: in media is the perfect application for AI because these
Speaker 10: are large language models that do a lot of interesting things,
Speaker 10: but they need huge amounts of data. Well, there is
Speaker 10: no industry with more data in terms of real time
Speaker 10: bidded trillions of AD calls daily in real time. It's
Speaker 10: the perfect application for AI, and we're going to see
Speaker 10: a spectrum from evolution to revolution. I put them in
Speaker 10: three buckets. There's, of course, they're going to improve efficiency
Speaker 10: in and around media data and workflow around how all
Speaker 10: this stuff works because it's complex and AI will improve that.
Speaker 10: Then there is another category around generative AI that's going
Speaker 10: to improve content and the creative of the ads so
Speaker 10: that they become more effective, not just more efficient, but
Speaker 10: more effective. And then there's a third category of who
Speaker 10: knows it could fundamentally change navigation on the web. What
Speaker 10: do I mean by that it's gonna change search because
Speaker 10: search is where you ask questions, whereas AI gives you answers. Right,
Speaker 10: why do we need to manually navigate to websites? If
Speaker 10: the if the publisher can simply publish to the ll M,
Speaker 10: because the interface isn't gonna be manual navigation to a
Speaker 10: www dot you know. Uh, it's just you're just gonna
Speaker 10: ask your AI and a I'll give you the answer.
Speaker 10: So the whole digital media world from a publisher standpoint,
Speaker 10: could be going from uh B two C to B
Speaker 10: two B where the B two B the other the
Speaker 10: last B on B two B is in fact the
Speaker 10: l ll ms of the AI.
Speaker 5: You haven't lost your energy.
Speaker 10: Dude, Oh no, hell no, I'm just getting so.
Speaker 2: I told these people when this guy comes in, you're
Speaker 2: gonna you're gonna know. Terry Quash, I thank you so
Speaker 2: much for joining us. Tarry Quash is founder and CEO
Speaker 2: of loom of Partners, really focusing on the digital advertising market,
Speaker 2: all the companies that kind of fuel the global digital
Speaker 2: advertising and what's digital advertising.
Speaker 5: It's all the ads that come on your.
Speaker 2: Facebook feed, each Google search, Snapchat, all that kind of stuff.
Speaker 2: Somebody's responsible for that. Terry is certainly one of them.
Speaker 2: The investment banker to the tech world getting an upbeat
Speaker 2: view of digital advertising. Artificial intelligence a big, big player.
Speaker 2: You know, if you're an advertiser, you want to make
Speaker 2: sure that your ad message gets to the right person,
Speaker 2: the right customer or potential customer, and AI can.
Speaker 5: Certainly help in that. So we'll keep an eye on that.
Speaker 2: So we appreciate getting a few minutes of Terry's presence
Speaker 2: here in our New York studio.
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