WEBVTT - HPE Earnings, Mnuchin Chases Wall Street Glory

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is Bloomberg Intelligence

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<v Speaker 1>with Alex Steel and Paul Sweeney.

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<v Speaker 2>The real app performance has been in US corporate high yield.

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<v Speaker 3>Are the companies lean enough? Have they trimmed all the fats?

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<v Speaker 2>The semiconductor business is a really cyclical business.

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<v Speaker 1>Breaking market headlines and corporate news from across the globe.

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<v Speaker 3>Do investors like the M and A that we've seen?

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<v Speaker 2>These are two big time blue chip companies.

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<v Speaker 3>The window between the peak and cut changing super fast.

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Intelligence with Alex Steel and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm Paul Sweeney and I'm John Tucker filling in for

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<v Speaker 4>Alex Steele.

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<v Speaker 2>On today's Bloomberg Intelligence Show. We dig inside the big

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<v Speaker 2>business stories impacting Wall Street and the global markets.

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<v Speaker 4>Each and every week we provide in depth research and

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<v Speaker 4>data on some of the two thousand companies at one

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<v Speaker 4>hundred and thirty industries our analysts cover worldwide.

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<v Speaker 2>Today, we'll look at why the athletic perrol retailer Lululemon

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<v Speaker 2>raised his profit outlook for the full year.

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<v Speaker 4>Plus, We're going to discuss where we are in the

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<v Speaker 4>US with developing the carbon market, but.

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<v Speaker 2>First we dive into information technology. HPE reported better than

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<v Speaker 2>expected second quarter revenue this week.

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<v Speaker 4>The results were fueled by sales of servers built for

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<v Speaker 4>artificial intelligence work for more.

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<v Speaker 2>Co hosts Alex Steele and I were joined by wou Jinho,

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Intelligence senior technology analysts. We first asked him for

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<v Speaker 2>his key takeaways from HPE's earnings.

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<v Speaker 5>I will tell you I don't think many people gave

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<v Speaker 5>heughlet Packard the benefit of the doubt in terms of

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<v Speaker 5>the AI server story. We saw that in the multiple

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<v Speaker 5>relative to Dell, HPE had a multiple less than eight. Dell,

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<v Speaker 5>even with the pullback, was at seventeen. So you know

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<v Speaker 5>they delivered on the story. AI servers doubled on a

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<v Speaker 5>sequential basis, and it seems as if the momentum could

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<v Speaker 5>be carried through into the second half of the year.

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<v Speaker 6>And Woods reading your react note, which is a great

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<v Speaker 6>part of BI folks, You know of a big piece

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<v Speaker 6>of news hits, you want to know what the bi

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<v Speaker 6>analysts are thinking, and they get out with what they

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<v Speaker 6>call or react a quick thought on a big piece

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<v Speaker 6>of news. And your react Wood in your research note said,

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<v Speaker 6>maybe they didn't take this revenue beat far enough in

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<v Speaker 6>their in their guidance going forward, tell us about that.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so if we think about the magnitude of the beat,

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<v Speaker 5>it was about four hundred million dollars in the quarter.

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<v Speaker 5>They only raise the guidance for about by about three

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<v Speaker 5>hundred million, So something doesn't tie here. A couple of

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<v Speaker 5>things I think may have happened was probably networking maybe

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<v Speaker 5>coming in a little bit lighter in the second half,

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<v Speaker 5>which is becoming a drag on the second half growth,

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<v Speaker 5>and that was somewhat to be expected. The one thing

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<v Speaker 5>I will say, and similar to what I said in Dell,

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<v Speaker 5>is that there might be still some conservatism as it

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<v Speaker 5>relates to the AI server sales going into the second

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<v Speaker 5>half of the year. Part of it. They addressed it

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<v Speaker 5>on the call. There's some constraints in terms of the

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<v Speaker 5>data centers where they can put start putting these AI servers.

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<v Speaker 5>And this is something new, and I think this is

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<v Speaker 5>going to be a bigger thing, a bigger deal going

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<v Speaker 5>into twenty twenty five. Are there enough data centers that

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<v Speaker 5>can really support these AI service going forward?

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<v Speaker 3>Will there be?

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<v Speaker 5>I say yes, the cloud guys as well as enterprise

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<v Speaker 5>guys will will eventually figure it out, but it takes

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<v Speaker 5>time to build these out.

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<v Speaker 2>Where do you think HPE should trade relative to Dell?

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<v Speaker 5>You know going forward, Well, there is a leverage issue

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<v Speaker 5>here in terms of the debt that they're taking on

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<v Speaker 5>the pending Juniper deal, they are going to be taking

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<v Speaker 5>on more debt, which is going to anchor the valuation

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<v Speaker 5>just a bit. Dell has a more favorable capital structure

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<v Speaker 5>which helps quite a bit. But I will tell you

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<v Speaker 5>if the AI story really starts to take off relative

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<v Speaker 5>to someone like a Delaware, a super Micro, we could

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<v Speaker 5>start seeing multiples rise a little bit more.

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<v Speaker 3>This might be a super silly question, but as someone

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<v Speaker 3>who has to like input all of these earnings for

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<v Speaker 3>software and for services and enterprise when it comes to AI,

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<v Speaker 3>who is a legit competitor with Hpe? Is it just Dell?

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<v Speaker 3>Are there smaller guys out there that do something similar?

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<v Speaker 5>I'll tell you that that's an excellent question. Right. So

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<v Speaker 5>the three pulicly trade names that compete hut to head

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<v Speaker 5>with Dell are super Micro, Dell, Hpe, and Lenovo. Right,

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<v Speaker 5>But what we heard from a copy text out of

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<v Speaker 5>Taiwan and video striking deals with these white box manufacturers,

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<v Speaker 5>like like a fox cod or a Quanta to directly

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<v Speaker 5>build these AI servers for these clouds. So you are

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<v Speaker 5>going to start seeing heightened competition in the landscape.

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<v Speaker 2>So you know, HPE is this it? I mean in

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<v Speaker 2>the sense that can we sit back and say, I

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<v Speaker 2>think these guys have it. They have an AI product

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<v Speaker 2>in their product lineup, and these guys can, in fact,

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<v Speaker 2>in the long term be players in this business.

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<v Speaker 5>So I think there's just been a The narrative on

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<v Speaker 5>HPE has been a little bit off for quite some

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<v Speaker 5>time now. We have to keep in mind that they've

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<v Speaker 5>been in a super computing game for quite a few years.

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<v Speaker 5>After the acquisition of Kray, now a couple of things

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<v Speaker 5>on the traditional service side, they didn't have the product

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<v Speaker 5>lineup to compete against like a super Micro and Dell.

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<v Speaker 5>But we're still in the early innings. And one thing

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<v Speaker 5>that I will tell you they are going to have

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<v Speaker 5>their discovered conference and schedule to be on stage is

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<v Speaker 5>the CEO of Nvidia, and that should really help prop

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<v Speaker 5>up the product narrative on the AI server side. Look,

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<v Speaker 5>we're still in the early innings, second, third, fourth, fifth inning.

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<v Speaker 5>HPE is going to be in the center of this.

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<v Speaker 3>I am curious how does the first mover advantage thing

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<v Speaker 3>play out? Like, if I'm a company, am I married

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<v Speaker 3>to Dell? How easy is it for me to switch

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<v Speaker 3>when Hpe kind of comes roaring?

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<v Speaker 5>So I want to take it in a different way. Right,

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<v Speaker 5>at the end of the day, it's a hardware, please.

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<v Speaker 5>You know a laptop is a laptop is a laptop, right,

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<v Speaker 5>you know my HP laptop is similar to a Dell laptop,

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<v Speaker 5>and you know it depends on the bells and whistles.

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<v Speaker 5>AI is actually going to be a different animal, especially

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<v Speaker 5>for the corporate enterprise, and you're going to have to

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<v Speaker 5>start wrapping around services around with the hardware itself. There

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<v Speaker 5>are probably three companies that can actually do that, Lenovo, Dell,

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<v Speaker 5>and Hpe, And you'll need the extensive services that can

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<v Speaker 5>help not only supply the hardware, not only supply the

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<v Speaker 5>maintenance and repair, but AI will need ex software expertise

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<v Speaker 5>to help build out these AI models for these corporations.

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<v Speaker 5>And you know there aren't many IT services companies that

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<v Speaker 5>can do that.

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<v Speaker 4>Hpe is one of them thanks to Wouji and Hull

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<v Speaker 4>Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Technology Analyst.

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<v Speaker 2>We next take a look at the Swedish Swiss company a.

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<v Speaker 4>B b ABB is a technology leader in electrification and automation,

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<v Speaker 4>enabling a more sustainable and resource efficient future.

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<v Speaker 2>Guest host Jessman and I were joined by ABB chairman

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<v Speaker 2>Peter Vasser. We first asked Peter where the focus this

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<v Speaker 2>company is these days.

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<v Speaker 7>It's clearly it's the energy transition, which is not only

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<v Speaker 7>the hard to abate tech betas, it's in general the

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<v Speaker 7>move from a more fossile driven energy system into electric

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<v Speaker 7>energy system and there we obviously contribute with our products

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<v Speaker 7>and systems, which gives us energy savings between twenty and

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<v Speaker 7>forty or even fifty percent. So that's one angle.

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<v Speaker 1>The other one is.

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<v Speaker 7>All linked to new technologies around automation and robotics, because

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<v Speaker 7>we are world leading company in both areas, and that

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<v Speaker 7>has to do with the reshuring, bringing things closer home

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<v Speaker 7>again where the markets are, but also in some countries,

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<v Speaker 7>dealing with the demographics because we have less and less

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<v Speaker 7>people working in the working age, and therefore robotics and

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<v Speaker 7>the automation becomes very important. And the last one is AI,

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<v Speaker 7>which will revolutionize obviously all what's related to automation in

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<v Speaker 7>the future.

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<v Speaker 8>We'll talk to us more about what you think is

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<v Speaker 8>the best way to try to scale manufacturing when it

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<v Speaker 8>comes to the EVE charging space.

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<v Speaker 7>Think what we really need on the e moobility side.

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<v Speaker 7>Let me put it this way, is really work on

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<v Speaker 7>two fronts. One is a technical side on the charging side,

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<v Speaker 7>but the other one is also on the user friendliness side,

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<v Speaker 7>so that they become actually more reliable, they are much

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<v Speaker 7>more modern. On the manufacturing side, I think we have

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<v Speaker 7>had clearly in some countries and regions there was some

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<v Speaker 7>scarcity of manufacturing capacity which I think have been sold.

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<v Speaker 7>Was not an issue for ABB in that sense, but

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<v Speaker 7>it's the product evolution which is.

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<v Speaker 1>Very key now.

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<v Speaker 7>On the other side, I think one that should not

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<v Speaker 7>forget that the whole network of electrification needs to be

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<v Speaker 7>up to speed. You cannot just actually consume much more energy.

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<v Speaker 7>You also need to build the transmission lines that the

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<v Speaker 7>power actually comes in. Where we have got let's say

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<v Speaker 7>the charge is installed either for a private passenger cars

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<v Speaker 7>or for busses, ships, trains, whatever you want to call it.

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<v Speaker 7>So I think we need much more infrastructure investments on

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<v Speaker 7>the one side, and really really to actually get to

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<v Speaker 7>EV charging and the passenger cars based on electrification much

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<v Speaker 7>more developed in the future.

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<v Speaker 2>Peter, who are some of your bigger customers that you're

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<v Speaker 2>working with these days.

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<v Speaker 7>We are here in the United States, so we have

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<v Speaker 7>all kinds of our manufacturing companies in that sense. But

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<v Speaker 7>on the industrial side, any any company you can think of,

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<v Speaker 7>which are they are in manufacturing space. For example, they

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<v Speaker 7>use our actification products, they use our automation products. So

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<v Speaker 7>you have all the industrial companies and that's where we

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<v Speaker 7>make the difference. The other side, utilities are very key.

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<v Speaker 7>As I just said, they need to make sure we

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<v Speaker 7>have an off supply.

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<v Speaker 2>And I know I'm just looking at our PGeo function

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<v Speaker 2>where I can see where your revenue comes by geography,

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<v Speaker 2>you're everywhere. You see certain parts of the world that

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<v Speaker 2>are more in front of you know, kind of making

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<v Speaker 2>the transition then some others.

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah, I think I would say that Europe has started

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<v Speaker 7>this rather early with the new Green Deal in Europe,

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<v Speaker 7>but also moving into a very different energy systems paid

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<v Speaker 7>some price with the wars in Russia, so energy prices

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<v Speaker 7>have gone up and that some rethinking has taken place.

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<v Speaker 7>I think here in the US you quite clearly see

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<v Speaker 7>the demand is there in all industries now supported by

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<v Speaker 7>the various acts you have here, either the Inflation Act

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<v Speaker 7>or then also the Industrial Act, and that is driving

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<v Speaker 7>investments now. It's much earlier days than in Europe for example.

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<v Speaker 7>Aha is a little bit of mixed back, I have

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<v Speaker 7>to say. So you see some countries at the leading edge,

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<v Speaker 7>like smaller company countries like Singapore. In China, which is

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<v Speaker 7>our second biggest market after the US, you see actually

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<v Speaker 7>a lot of efforts now being put in place to

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<v Speaker 7>change the electric system in in China, a lot of

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<v Speaker 7>EV cards are coming in and you can see that

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<v Speaker 7>those really are now generating the growth in China by

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<v Speaker 7>city subdued compared to the US at this stage. So indeed,

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<v Speaker 7>we are operating across the world in more than one

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<v Speaker 7>hundred countries. We get good insights. At the moment, the

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<v Speaker 7>driving forces are really the US and Europe, with let's

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<v Speaker 7>say Asia apart from India are lacking somewhat.

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<v Speaker 8>So where else do you go to expand from here?

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<v Speaker 8>When you already are in so many places?

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<v Speaker 7>It's quite clearly US is our key number one market

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<v Speaker 7>and that's where we have a developing We have over

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<v Speaker 7>the last ten years, we have put more than fourteen

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<v Speaker 7>billion dollars into the US in terms of investments. We

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<v Speaker 7>have got forty manufacturing sites in twenty states. We're operating

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<v Speaker 7>in all states with our services, et cetera. So that's

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<v Speaker 7>a key market. We see the electrification market in the

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<v Speaker 7>US as key, but the industrial one which has a

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<v Speaker 7>lot to do with bringing home let's say, manufacturing capabilities

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<v Speaker 7>and capacity. And then the second one is clearly India,

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<v Speaker 7>which at the moment is in terms of growth outstripping

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<v Speaker 7>all other countries in a big way. They are very

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<v Speaker 7>low in manufacturing capacity and that's where a lot of

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<v Speaker 7>investments now for the high end manufacturing goes in. And

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<v Speaker 7>then the third one will be Europe quite clearly as

0:12:28.920 --> 0:12:33.160
<v Speaker 7>the European change Indian energy system, but also the demographic

0:12:33.600 --> 0:12:37.560
<v Speaker 7>issues which we have in Europe which will take out

0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:41.960
<v Speaker 7>about fifty million kind of working people over the next

0:12:42.000 --> 0:12:44.800
<v Speaker 7>ten years and that needs to be replaced by automation

0:12:44.960 --> 0:12:47.560
<v Speaker 7>and robotics. So there's a lot of investments on going there.

0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:50.880
<v Speaker 2>Thanks to Peter Vassar, chairman of ABB, coming.

0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:54.520
<v Speaker 4>Up a look at new carbon offset guidelines from the US.

0:12:54.320 --> 0:12:57.120
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing in

0:12:57.400 --> 0:13:00.880
<v Speaker 2>research and data on two thousand companies and thirty industries.

0:13:01.040 --> 0:13:03.840
<v Speaker 2>You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via big on the terminal.

0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:07.079
<v Speaker 4>I'm Paul Sweeney, Mad, I'm John Tucker. This is Bloomberg.

0:13:11.080 --> 0:13:14.960
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live

0:13:15.040 --> 0:13:18.120
<v Speaker 1>weekdays at ten am Eastern on AFFL car playing Enroud

0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:21.199
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0:13:21.320 --> 0:13:24.440
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0:13:26.040 --> 0:13:28.400
<v Speaker 4>Oh, Paul Sweeney Ant, I'm John Tucker, filling in for

0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:29.240
<v Speaker 4>Alex Steele.

0:13:29.520 --> 0:13:33.320
<v Speaker 2>We look next at the Canadian athletic apparel retailer Lululemon Athletica.

0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:36.040
<v Speaker 4>Lulu Lemon raised its profit outlook for the full year

0:13:36.080 --> 0:13:39.200
<v Speaker 4>while also beating market expectations for earnings in the first quarter,

0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:42.600
<v Speaker 4>and this came despite investor concerns over the company's slowing

0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:43.400
<v Speaker 4>sales growth.

0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:45.240
<v Speaker 2>For more, guest host John Tucker and I were joined

0:13:45.240 --> 0:13:48.840
<v Speaker 2>by Punham Goyle, senior US retail analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

0:13:49.040 --> 0:13:52.160
<v Speaker 4>We first danced Poonham for her key takeaways from Lululemon's

0:13:52.160 --> 0:13:52.800
<v Speaker 4>earnings report.

0:13:53.160 --> 0:13:55.320
<v Speaker 9>So, I think the earnings are better than expected because

0:13:55.360 --> 0:13:57.959
<v Speaker 9>while we do see slowing growth at Lululemon, where it's

0:13:57.960 --> 0:14:02.040
<v Speaker 9>accelerating from the mid teams to low double digits near

0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:05.880
<v Speaker 9>ten percent. There was concern that is that because of

0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:09.079
<v Speaker 9>a slower macro and the fact that lul Lemon is

0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:13.640
<v Speaker 9>losing out to competition Aloyoga, et cetera. We discovered that

0:14:13.840 --> 0:14:15.520
<v Speaker 9>part of that is true, but part of that is

0:14:15.640 --> 0:14:17.640
<v Speaker 9>not true, and I think that's why investors have a

0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:18.760
<v Speaker 9>little more confidence.

0:14:19.560 --> 0:14:22.080
<v Speaker 4>How big is the US market for them? And are

0:14:22.160 --> 0:14:23.920
<v Speaker 4>they selling overseas and how much?

0:14:24.920 --> 0:14:27.680
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, so the US market the America is eighty percent

0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:31.360
<v Speaker 9>of their business. International is twenty percent, with China half

0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:31.600
<v Speaker 9>of that.

0:14:32.280 --> 0:14:34.840
<v Speaker 4>And is demand picking up or slowing in China or

0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:36.880
<v Speaker 4>is it new to the Lulu Lemon market.

0:14:37.840 --> 0:14:41.280
<v Speaker 9>So international was a bright spot this quarter. International sales

0:14:41.400 --> 0:14:45.720
<v Speaker 9>grew about thirty five percent, and within that, China was

0:14:45.800 --> 0:14:48.440
<v Speaker 9>up Mainland China was up forty five percent, So a

0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:51.560
<v Speaker 9>lot of growth there. It's a bright spot for lul Lemon.

0:14:51.680 --> 0:14:54.720
<v Speaker 9>International is part of their three pronged strategy to double

0:14:54.800 --> 0:14:58.640
<v Speaker 9>sales into twenty twenty seven. It's been doing very, very

0:14:58.680 --> 0:15:00.040
<v Speaker 9>well and we expect that to cont.

0:15:00.600 --> 0:15:02.600
<v Speaker 2>And I'm looking at your research here, Poonam. You're talking

0:15:02.600 --> 0:15:05.240
<v Speaker 2>about you know when you talk about that doubling sales

0:15:05.920 --> 0:15:07.480
<v Speaker 2>to twelve and a half billion, you know by twenty

0:15:07.520 --> 0:15:11.360
<v Speaker 2>twenty six the company and you're saying strong international growth. Okay,

0:15:11.400 --> 0:15:14.720
<v Speaker 2>I get that men's growth. Talk thus about Lululemon and

0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:16.960
<v Speaker 2>Men's I mean, it's just not John and I don't

0:15:16.960 --> 0:15:17.560
<v Speaker 2>know where to go with this.

0:15:17.640 --> 0:15:19.400
<v Speaker 4>Do real men go to Lululemon?

0:15:20.360 --> 0:15:24.160
<v Speaker 9>Is what it's Real men are going to Lululemon. You know,

0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:26.720
<v Speaker 9>it's one of their bright spots right now. And they

0:15:26.920 --> 0:15:29.760
<v Speaker 9>actually think that Men's could become overtime. I think you'll say,

0:15:29.840 --> 0:15:32.560
<v Speaker 9>take some time fifty percent of the business. So there's

0:15:32.760 --> 0:15:35.200
<v Speaker 9>a lot of opportunity in men's. And you know when

0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:37.600
<v Speaker 9>you walk those stores and I looked at the men's inventory,

0:15:37.720 --> 0:15:40.840
<v Speaker 9>it actually looks great. It's not just about outfitting the

0:15:40.920 --> 0:15:43.440
<v Speaker 9>men to go to the gym. It's about outfitting the

0:15:43.520 --> 0:15:47.320
<v Speaker 9>men to go into work with casual, comfortable where that

0:15:47.520 --> 0:15:47.840
<v Speaker 9>they can.

0:15:49.960 --> 0:15:52.160
<v Speaker 4>Everybody who listens to this program of views is on

0:15:52.240 --> 0:15:56.520
<v Speaker 4>YouTube knows Paul is the company fashion place. Yes, if

0:15:56.560 --> 0:15:59.560
<v Speaker 4>you saw somebody in like Lululemon come into the office,

0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:01.040
<v Speaker 4>might be a film.

0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:02.680
<v Speaker 2>It might be a problem. But I'm going to refer

0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:04.920
<v Speaker 2>to to Punum because she knows fashion here and she

0:16:05.040 --> 0:16:07.880
<v Speaker 2>knows what works. So if I'm Lulu Lemon, talk to

0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:12.000
<v Speaker 2>us just about what they're saying about the consumer out there, Punham.

0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:14.960
<v Speaker 9>So the consumer, We've been talking about this for a

0:16:15.000 --> 0:16:18.680
<v Speaker 9>while now. The consumer is selective. They're choosing where to shop,

0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:21.200
<v Speaker 9>when to shop, how to shop, and if they see

0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:23.680
<v Speaker 9>the right product, they are still purchasing it. The one

0:16:23.760 --> 0:16:26.440
<v Speaker 9>thing that struck out during the call was that traffic

0:16:26.640 --> 0:16:29.400
<v Speaker 9>was up in the quarter, which means people are still

0:16:29.520 --> 0:16:32.360
<v Speaker 9>going to lul Lemon. They still have purchase intent. But

0:16:32.720 --> 0:16:35.480
<v Speaker 9>there were some product missteps which they're working to correct

0:16:35.520 --> 0:16:37.920
<v Speaker 9>into the second half of the year, where they didn't

0:16:38.000 --> 0:16:40.240
<v Speaker 9>have the right colors, or they didn't have enough colors

0:16:40.240 --> 0:16:42.960
<v Speaker 9>I should say, they didn't have enough depth and sizes.

0:16:43.000 --> 0:16:45.000
<v Speaker 9>They were running out of the small sizes. So these

0:16:45.040 --> 0:16:47.560
<v Speaker 9>are problems that I would think are execution related and

0:16:47.800 --> 0:16:50.080
<v Speaker 9>are being fixed and can be fixed into the back half.

0:16:50.440 --> 0:16:52.720
<v Speaker 9>So while there is still part of a macro problem,

0:16:53.200 --> 0:16:56.280
<v Speaker 9>the story isn't that Little Lemon people are not going

0:16:56.320 --> 0:16:58.560
<v Speaker 9>to shop there. People still are interested in the apparel.

0:16:58.600 --> 0:17:01.160
<v Speaker 9>They just have to fix the product a little and

0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:03.600
<v Speaker 9>really improve our execution into the back half.

0:17:04.000 --> 0:17:07.000
<v Speaker 4>They're known for form fitting, but just to get back

0:17:07.040 --> 0:17:10.040
<v Speaker 4>to the men's fashion, they have anything for old fat guys.

0:17:11.680 --> 0:17:15.480
<v Speaker 9>Well. Their ABC men's franchise is really popular and it's

0:17:15.640 --> 0:17:19.239
<v Speaker 9>not form fitting. It's about the casual flare and they

0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:22.399
<v Speaker 9>have done very well there. And you don't need to

0:17:22.440 --> 0:17:25.320
<v Speaker 9>wear a tight leggings for men's that's not the appeal there.

0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:27.880
<v Speaker 9>That's for the women. But I'd say even for the woman,

0:17:27.960 --> 0:17:30.080
<v Speaker 9>you know what worked really well in the corner where

0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:33.280
<v Speaker 9>they're loose fitting pants and their biker shorts. So yes,

0:17:33.400 --> 0:17:35.840
<v Speaker 9>leggings is a big business for them, but they are

0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:37.840
<v Speaker 9>broadening that. Eight.

0:17:37.920 --> 0:17:39.480
<v Speaker 2>Let's switch gears just a little bit. I saw it

0:17:39.560 --> 0:17:42.680
<v Speaker 2>yesterday reporting in the Wall Street Journal Punium Dollar Tree

0:17:43.560 --> 0:17:46.560
<v Speaker 2>is among the potential sales spin off of Family Dollar.

0:17:46.800 --> 0:17:49.480
<v Speaker 2>What is going on with the dollar stores here? I

0:17:49.640 --> 0:17:52.680
<v Speaker 2>would have thought that if a part of the consumer

0:17:52.840 --> 0:17:56.159
<v Speaker 2>market is weak and the lower end economically, that perhaps

0:17:56.240 --> 0:17:59.520
<v Speaker 2>that would be good for the dollar stores. But what's

0:17:59.560 --> 0:17:59.959
<v Speaker 2>going on there?

0:18:00.680 --> 0:18:04.159
<v Speaker 9>So they're really two very different types of dollar stories.

0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:07.920
<v Speaker 9>Gen Bartashus covers the space, but from my coverage every

0:18:08.040 --> 0:18:11.320
<v Speaker 9>years ago, I can tell you that dollar Tree targets everyone, right.

0:18:11.480 --> 0:18:13.320
<v Speaker 9>I would shop at Dollar Tree, Paul, You would shop

0:18:13.359 --> 0:18:15.720
<v Speaker 9>a Dollar Tree. You buy that one twenty five item

0:18:15.800 --> 0:18:19.800
<v Speaker 9>there and you go treasure hunt. But a family Dollar customer,

0:18:19.960 --> 0:18:22.920
<v Speaker 9>that's their principal discount store. That is where they buy

0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:25.000
<v Speaker 9>their groceries, that is where they buy their day to

0:18:25.080 --> 0:18:28.400
<v Speaker 9>day needs. So as that customer's wallet is being stretched,

0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:30.840
<v Speaker 9>that business does come into more pressure.

0:18:31.280 --> 0:18:34.760
<v Speaker 4>Thanks to Pootamgoyle, senior US e commerce and retail analysts

0:18:34.840 --> 0:18:36.639
<v Speaker 4>at Bloomberg Intelligence, we have.

0:18:36.680 --> 0:18:39.840
<v Speaker 2>Something here at Bloomberg called Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The

0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:43.880
<v Speaker 2>idea behind it is to provide data on commodities, power, transport, industries,

0:18:44.040 --> 0:18:46.240
<v Speaker 2>building and agriculture and new technology.

0:18:46.400 --> 0:18:49.560
<v Speaker 4>And this week we looked at new carbon offset guidelines

0:18:49.600 --> 0:18:53.160
<v Speaker 4>for the US. US government recently outlined seven key principles

0:18:53.200 --> 0:18:56.960
<v Speaker 4>that US buyers and sellers should follow to responsibly take

0:18:57.040 --> 0:18:59.080
<v Speaker 4>part in the voluntary carbon market.

0:18:59.280 --> 0:19:01.080
<v Speaker 2>For more on what they this means, guest host Jess

0:19:01.119 --> 0:19:03.480
<v Speaker 2>Mettin and I we're joined by Kyle Harrison, head of

0:19:03.560 --> 0:19:07.560
<v Speaker 2>sustainability research at bloomerk n EF. We first asked Kyle

0:19:07.640 --> 0:19:09.800
<v Speaker 2>to talk to us about where we are in the

0:19:09.880 --> 0:19:10.960
<v Speaker 2>developing carbon market.

0:19:11.480 --> 0:19:13.600
<v Speaker 10>So for several decades now, we've had what's called a

0:19:13.760 --> 0:19:16.280
<v Speaker 10>voluntary carbon market. This is where companies can go and

0:19:16.320 --> 0:19:19.879
<v Speaker 10>they can buy verified emission reduction certificates in order to

0:19:20.080 --> 0:19:23.520
<v Speaker 10>achieve a for example, carbon neutrality goal where they're neutralizing

0:19:23.560 --> 0:19:25.680
<v Speaker 10>their emissions, and so they'll go out and they'll buy

0:19:25.680 --> 0:19:28.080
<v Speaker 10>these carbon credits. But the market has gotten a lot

0:19:28.119 --> 0:19:30.880
<v Speaker 10>of criticism over the past couple of years for low

0:19:30.960 --> 0:19:31.960
<v Speaker 10>integrity projects.

0:19:32.359 --> 0:19:35.800
<v Speaker 2>So when a Hollywood sled flies on their private jet

0:19:35.840 --> 0:19:37.960
<v Speaker 2>and say, oh, but I offset it with a carbon footprint,

0:19:38.320 --> 0:19:38.920
<v Speaker 2>what does that mean.

0:19:39.280 --> 0:19:41.760
<v Speaker 10>So they're going out and they're buying these carbon credits,

0:19:41.800 --> 0:19:44.000
<v Speaker 10>and they're investing in a project somewhere else in the

0:19:44.040 --> 0:19:47.760
<v Speaker 10>world that is reducing or removing or avoiding carbon emissions.

0:19:48.080 --> 0:19:50.959
<v Speaker 10>But the challenge has always been the integrity of those investments, right,

0:19:51.000 --> 0:19:54.760
<v Speaker 10>It's been in projects that aren't necessarily leading to decarbonization.

0:19:55.359 --> 0:19:57.160
<v Speaker 10>And so this market has gotten a lot of criticism.

0:19:57.600 --> 0:19:59.919
<v Speaker 10>But there's been a lot of efforts from the privates

0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:02.720
<v Speaker 10>actor specifically over the past couple of years to boost

0:20:02.800 --> 0:20:04.880
<v Speaker 10>that integrity, and now they have support from the US

0:20:04.960 --> 0:20:06.480
<v Speaker 10>government with this announcement last week.

0:20:06.920 --> 0:20:08.080
<v Speaker 8>So what happens next.

0:20:08.440 --> 0:20:11.240
<v Speaker 10>So, as you guys mentioned, it's a big ringing endorsement

0:20:11.359 --> 0:20:13.920
<v Speaker 10>for this market. What the US government did is it

0:20:14.000 --> 0:20:17.640
<v Speaker 10>publicly supported a couple of initiatives, such as the Integrity

0:20:17.680 --> 0:20:20.560
<v Speaker 10>Council on Voluntary Carbon Markets. This is a group of

0:20:20.800 --> 0:20:25.200
<v Speaker 10>non governmental organizations as well as financial institutions and corporations

0:20:25.240 --> 0:20:27.760
<v Speaker 10>that are working and creating their own standards for what

0:20:27.840 --> 0:20:30.800
<v Speaker 10>a good quality carbon credit looks like if you follow

0:20:30.960 --> 0:20:34.680
<v Speaker 10>that Integrity Council principle or that framework. As a corporate buyer,

0:20:34.760 --> 0:20:36.720
<v Speaker 10>I know I can buy those credits and I'm not

0:20:36.720 --> 0:20:39.240
<v Speaker 10>going to get accused of greenwashing, so I can fly

0:20:39.400 --> 0:20:41.800
<v Speaker 10>those flights or I can continue to do business, but

0:20:41.880 --> 0:20:45.840
<v Speaker 10>I can be relying on a tangible, impactful investment into decarbonization.

0:20:46.320 --> 0:20:49.080
<v Speaker 2>You know, folks, the work coming out of BENF I

0:20:49.119 --> 0:20:53.000
<v Speaker 2>think is absolutely the gold plate for this entire industry,

0:20:53.880 --> 0:20:56.760
<v Speaker 2>and we rely upon these folks pretty heavily. Here's just

0:20:56.840 --> 0:20:59.239
<v Speaker 2>some crazy numbers. Every company in the world will need

0:20:59.280 --> 0:21:02.400
<v Speaker 2>carbon credits to achieve net zero goals, and you guys

0:21:02.560 --> 0:21:06.320
<v Speaker 2>benef estimate annual carbon offset demand could reach five point

0:21:06.480 --> 0:21:10.240
<v Speaker 2>nine billion tons of carbon equivalent annually in twenty fifty.

0:21:10.560 --> 0:21:13.320
<v Speaker 2>That's some from one hundred and sixty four million today.

0:21:13.480 --> 0:21:15.919
<v Speaker 2>What industries are going to be getting us there?

0:21:16.040 --> 0:21:18.280
<v Speaker 10>For lack of a better word, as you mentioned, it's

0:21:18.320 --> 0:21:20.919
<v Speaker 10>really every single industry. But really you can look at

0:21:20.960 --> 0:21:24.399
<v Speaker 10>the heaviest emitting sectors as the biggest potential demand sources

0:21:24.800 --> 0:21:28.479
<v Speaker 10>oil and gas companies, metals, and mining industrials. These are

0:21:28.560 --> 0:21:32.920
<v Speaker 10>heavy emitting sectors that can't easily decarbonize. You mentioned airlines before.

0:21:33.359 --> 0:21:35.440
<v Speaker 10>As an airline, how do you reduce your emissions? Do

0:21:35.440 --> 0:21:38.320
<v Speaker 10>you stop flying planes? That's the most tangible way to

0:21:38.400 --> 0:21:41.000
<v Speaker 10>go ahead and do that, right, And so carbon credits

0:21:41.000 --> 0:21:44.680
<v Speaker 10>will be an important part of their decarbonization strategy long term.

0:21:45.160 --> 0:21:48.160
<v Speaker 10>And as you mentioned, demand could reach six billion tons

0:21:48.640 --> 0:21:50.840
<v Speaker 10>to give you a sense of scale, that's around ten

0:21:50.920 --> 0:21:54.440
<v Speaker 10>percent of global carbon dioxide emissions today. So this will

0:21:54.480 --> 0:21:57.440
<v Speaker 10>play a huge role in the global climate change or

0:21:57.480 --> 0:21:59.440
<v Speaker 10>the global fight against climate change in the future.

0:22:00.000 --> 0:22:02.959
<v Speaker 8>So then every company in the world would need carbon

0:22:03.000 --> 0:22:05.600
<v Speaker 8>credits to achieve net zero goals.

0:22:05.680 --> 0:22:08.240
<v Speaker 10>This is how it works exactly, and so you can

0:22:08.359 --> 0:22:11.679
<v Speaker 10>use this analogy with any company, but carbon credits typically

0:22:11.680 --> 0:22:13.879
<v Speaker 10>should only be used as for those emissions or that

0:22:14.359 --> 0:22:17.040
<v Speaker 10>itch that a company can't scratch. Once it's done everything

0:22:17.119 --> 0:22:19.879
<v Speaker 10>it can to reduce what it physically emits as a company,

0:22:20.240 --> 0:22:23.280
<v Speaker 10>it'll have what we call residual emissions somewhere along its

0:22:23.359 --> 0:22:26.479
<v Speaker 10>value chain. That is your perfect universe for carbon credits.

0:22:26.680 --> 0:22:28.879
<v Speaker 10>And the US government was very vocal about this in

0:22:28.920 --> 0:22:32.399
<v Speaker 10>their announcement last week, is that companies shouldn't abandon their

0:22:32.440 --> 0:22:36.919
<v Speaker 10>decarbonization efforts. They should prioritize those efforts, and then they

0:22:36.920 --> 0:22:39.879
<v Speaker 10>should use carbon credits. But those must be reliable carbon credits.

0:22:40.200 --> 0:22:42.480
<v Speaker 10>And so that's kind of where these credits play a

0:22:42.600 --> 0:22:44.720
<v Speaker 10>role towards the end of that value chain.

0:22:44.920 --> 0:22:46.440
<v Speaker 2>All right, I'll tell you why this gets my attention,

0:22:46.560 --> 0:22:49.240
<v Speaker 2>because it's got the intention of Michael R. Bloomberg, the

0:22:49.359 --> 0:22:52.520
<v Speaker 2>founder of Bloomberg LP and this little radio TV station

0:22:52.640 --> 0:22:54.520
<v Speaker 2>thing we got going here. He's out with an editorial

0:22:54.920 --> 0:22:57.040
<v Speaker 2>really kind of calling out the Biden administration saying that

0:22:57.080 --> 0:22:59.760
<v Speaker 2>this new plan might work and it's something we need

0:22:59.760 --> 0:23:02.240
<v Speaker 2>to pay attention to. I mean, is this something that's

0:23:02.320 --> 0:23:05.120
<v Speaker 2>at the whim of whatever administrations in the White House

0:23:05.160 --> 0:23:06.919
<v Speaker 2>at the moment? Not necessarily.

0:23:07.720 --> 0:23:10.080
<v Speaker 10>As I mentioned, right, the private sector is going to

0:23:10.160 --> 0:23:12.439
<v Speaker 10>be the biggest leader and kind of moving this forward

0:23:12.480 --> 0:23:16.560
<v Speaker 10>and spearheading it. It has been financial institutions and corporations

0:23:17.119 --> 0:23:18.800
<v Speaker 10>that have taken the reins and they will continue to

0:23:18.880 --> 0:23:21.320
<v Speaker 10>do so. They will be the biggest demand source, but

0:23:21.440 --> 0:23:24.560
<v Speaker 10>they need to be complemented by strong government support, right,

0:23:24.680 --> 0:23:28.200
<v Speaker 10>and so this endorsement is hugely important, and it's you know,

0:23:28.280 --> 0:23:30.520
<v Speaker 10>obviously it's the Department of Treasury, but it's also the

0:23:30.560 --> 0:23:34.200
<v Speaker 10>Department of Energy. The Department of Energy will be subsidizing

0:23:34.240 --> 0:23:37.960
<v Speaker 10>and investing in early stage carbon removal projects through this initiative.

0:23:38.320 --> 0:23:41.119
<v Speaker 10>And then the Department of Agriculture was also involved and

0:23:41.200 --> 0:23:43.960
<v Speaker 10>they're going to be going ahead and catalyzing and providing

0:23:44.080 --> 0:23:47.800
<v Speaker 10>farmers with subsidies in order to pivot to low carbon farming.

0:23:47.960 --> 0:23:51.280
<v Speaker 10>So it's really a kind of a combined effort that's

0:23:51.280 --> 0:23:52.879
<v Speaker 10>going to be needed both from the government and the

0:23:52.920 --> 0:23:56.000
<v Speaker 10>private sector. But even with an administration change, for example,

0:23:56.600 --> 0:23:59.320
<v Speaker 10>if you still have corporations and financials focused, it'll still

0:23:59.359 --> 0:23:59.840
<v Speaker 10>move this market.

0:24:00.800 --> 0:24:02.760
<v Speaker 8>We really have about a minute left, but talk to

0:24:02.840 --> 0:24:06.320
<v Speaker 8>us about tech companies like Microsoft and their plans when

0:24:06.359 --> 0:24:09.720
<v Speaker 8>it comes to being more active in carbon offsetting today

0:24:09.760 --> 0:24:11.880
<v Speaker 8>and how they really think of where it could continue

0:24:11.920 --> 0:24:12.960
<v Speaker 8>going into twenty fifty.

0:24:13.400 --> 0:24:16.520
<v Speaker 10>Technology companies have always prided themselves on their ability to

0:24:16.720 --> 0:24:19.680
<v Speaker 10>lead in the icebreakers when it comes to decarbonization. So

0:24:20.320 --> 0:24:23.359
<v Speaker 10>tech companies like Microsoft and Google and Amazon, they were

0:24:23.359 --> 0:24:26.200
<v Speaker 10>the first large scale corporations to buy clean energy from

0:24:26.280 --> 0:24:29.159
<v Speaker 10>solar and wind projects for example, it's only natural that

0:24:29.240 --> 0:24:31.600
<v Speaker 10>they're kind of the icebreakers when it comes to voluntary

0:24:31.640 --> 0:24:35.879
<v Speaker 10>carbon markets. You're seeing companies like Microsoft announce huge carbon

0:24:35.920 --> 0:24:39.600
<v Speaker 10>removal deals for these nascent technologies that maybe aren't necessarily

0:24:39.640 --> 0:24:42.440
<v Speaker 10>at scale today, and they're also not competitive from a

0:24:42.480 --> 0:24:45.760
<v Speaker 10>cost standpoint. What those investments will do is that they'll

0:24:45.760 --> 0:24:47.960
<v Speaker 10>bring the cost down and it'll make it more attractive

0:24:48.040 --> 0:24:50.480
<v Speaker 10>and competitive for all those other companies that are out

0:24:50.520 --> 0:24:53.920
<v Speaker 10>there to invest in carbon removal and therefore this voluntary

0:24:53.960 --> 0:24:54.520
<v Speaker 10>carbon market.

0:24:54.800 --> 0:24:58.160
<v Speaker 2>Thanks tot Kyle Harrison, head of Sustainability research at Bloomberg

0:24:58.200 --> 0:24:58.879
<v Speaker 2>an ef.

0:24:58.920 --> 0:25:00.560
<v Speaker 4>Coming up of a program we're going to look at

0:25:00.560 --> 0:25:04.920
<v Speaker 4>how former US Treasury Secretary Steve Manosan is chasing Wall

0:25:05.040 --> 0:25:05.840
<v Speaker 4>Street glory.

0:25:06.160 --> 0:25:09.639
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing research

0:25:09.720 --> 0:25:11.960
<v Speaker 2>and data on two thousand companies in one hundred and

0:25:11.960 --> 0:25:14.760
<v Speaker 2>thirty industries. You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via b I

0:25:14.840 --> 0:25:16.399
<v Speaker 2>go on the terminal. I'm Paul Sweeney.

0:25:16.480 --> 0:25:19.080
<v Speaker 4>MAA don John Tucker. This is Bloomberg.

0:25:23.280 --> 0:25:27.120
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

0:25:27.240 --> 0:25:30.760
<v Speaker 1>weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

0:25:30.800 --> 0:25:33.520
<v Speaker 1>Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

0:25:33.680 --> 0:25:36.760
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0:25:37.160 --> 0:25:39.880
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0:25:40.240 --> 0:25:41.080
<v Speaker 2>Hey there, I'm Paul.

0:25:40.960 --> 0:25:43.600
<v Speaker 4>Sweeney and I'm John Tucker filling in for Alex Steele.

0:25:43.880 --> 0:25:47.239
<v Speaker 2>We move now to energy and Trafagora. Traffagora is one

0:25:47.280 --> 0:25:50.520
<v Speaker 2>of the world's largest suppliers of commodities.

0:25:50.119 --> 0:25:53.000
<v Speaker 4>And this week the company posted the first half profits

0:25:53.040 --> 0:25:56.080
<v Speaker 4>down seventy three percent from a year earlier. This comes

0:25:56.119 --> 0:25:59.719
<v Speaker 4>as the commodity giant adjusted calmer conditions across it's key

0:26:00.040 --> 0:26:02.199
<v Speaker 4>energy and metals Marcus For.

0:26:02.280 --> 0:26:04.199
<v Speaker 2>More on this guest host John Tucker and I were

0:26:04.280 --> 0:26:07.800
<v Speaker 2>joined by Archie Hunter, Bloomberg Commodities reporter. We first asked

0:26:07.920 --> 0:26:10.280
<v Speaker 2>Archie for his take on this week's earnings report.

0:26:10.800 --> 0:26:13.240
<v Speaker 11>It's a big drop off, It's still a huge profit

0:26:13.640 --> 0:26:16.520
<v Speaker 11>as far as the sector goes. Look the commodity trading

0:26:16.600 --> 0:26:19.920
<v Speaker 11>industry is coming out of, and perhaps what the signals

0:26:20.000 --> 0:26:21.879
<v Speaker 11>is the trading industry is coming out of like a

0:26:22.000 --> 0:26:26.920
<v Speaker 11>real real boom time where COVID nineteen and then the

0:26:27.119 --> 0:26:29.960
<v Speaker 11>sort of Russian invasion of Ukraine's really sort of super

0:26:30.040 --> 0:26:33.920
<v Speaker 11>sized volatility, especially in the energy space, that's starting to

0:26:34.000 --> 0:26:36.119
<v Speaker 11>peter out. You know, we're still getting big moves. I

0:26:36.200 --> 0:26:39.639
<v Speaker 11>think you've seen some big moves on gas, but you know,

0:26:39.880 --> 0:26:42.600
<v Speaker 11>it's really not as extreme as it was over the

0:26:42.680 --> 0:26:45.320
<v Speaker 11>past few years. And as a result, you know, whilst

0:26:45.400 --> 0:26:48.080
<v Speaker 11>this is a still really big number historically for a

0:26:48.119 --> 0:26:51.240
<v Speaker 11>company like traffic Eura, you know, there's been a big

0:26:51.320 --> 0:26:53.440
<v Speaker 11>drop off since this time last year.

0:26:53.600 --> 0:26:56.760
<v Speaker 4>So I don't need to cry for commodities traders at

0:26:56.800 --> 0:26:57.240
<v Speaker 4>this point.

0:26:58.840 --> 0:27:01.320
<v Speaker 11>I don't know about that. Look, these companies have made

0:27:01.680 --> 0:27:05.600
<v Speaker 11>extraordinary amounts of money over the past few years, especially

0:27:05.720 --> 0:27:08.359
<v Speaker 11>the biggest companies, and and look, you know, one of

0:27:08.400 --> 0:27:11.040
<v Speaker 11>the interesting things about them is that they're owned by

0:27:11.840 --> 0:27:15.399
<v Speaker 11>the top executives who either trade or are part of

0:27:15.920 --> 0:27:17.320
<v Speaker 11>middle office or back office.

0:27:17.880 --> 0:27:19.639
<v Speaker 4>By the employees essentially, right.

0:27:19.800 --> 0:27:23.520
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, exactly. So, Look, these companies have paid out big dividends,

0:27:23.920 --> 0:27:27.880
<v Speaker 11>big share buybacks, to those shareholders over the past few years.

0:27:28.200 --> 0:27:31.080
<v Speaker 11>They're still doing that, right. Look, traffic Eurer paid out

0:27:31.240 --> 0:27:33.640
<v Speaker 11>I think was over six hundred million in the way

0:27:33.720 --> 0:27:37.080
<v Speaker 11>that it reimburses its shareholders over the first half. So

0:27:37.480 --> 0:27:39.080
<v Speaker 11>that's still a lot of a lot of money for

0:27:39.119 --> 0:27:42.960
<v Speaker 11>the roughly one four hundred people, so relatively few people

0:27:43.000 --> 0:27:44.200
<v Speaker 11>who hold stock in the company.

0:27:44.440 --> 0:27:46.600
<v Speaker 4>So if I'm one of the executives there and I've

0:27:46.680 --> 0:27:48.879
<v Speaker 4>really cleaned up, I'm just going to pack up and

0:27:48.960 --> 0:27:51.840
<v Speaker 4>go go live on an island somewhere, right.

0:27:52.000 --> 0:27:55.840
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, I mean you and I might think that, but look,

0:27:56.280 --> 0:27:58.800
<v Speaker 11>there's definitely some movement happening in the sector. At the

0:27:58.840 --> 0:28:01.920
<v Speaker 11>same time. Look, view owned shares in these companies that

0:28:02.040 --> 0:28:04.720
<v Speaker 11>seem to be doing really well every single year. I think,

0:28:05.280 --> 0:28:07.120
<v Speaker 11>you know, from what we see, a lot of people

0:28:07.280 --> 0:28:09.400
<v Speaker 11>seem to be sticking around as well, right, And look,

0:28:09.800 --> 0:28:12.240
<v Speaker 11>it's still really interesting time to be trading commodities. I

0:28:12.240 --> 0:28:14.720
<v Speaker 11>think what these results show is that, you know, whilst

0:28:14.720 --> 0:28:18.000
<v Speaker 11>it's a big drop off from the last couple of years,

0:28:18.280 --> 0:28:21.879
<v Speaker 11>like historically, you know, Trafficker would make in some of

0:28:21.960 --> 0:28:25.120
<v Speaker 11>its best years before the pandemic, it would make maybe

0:28:25.160 --> 0:28:28.240
<v Speaker 11>a billion a billion dollars would have been an absolutely

0:28:28.240 --> 0:28:31.320
<v Speaker 11>mammoth year, some of its best years, and so you know,

0:28:31.520 --> 0:28:34.159
<v Speaker 11>the company made that in half a year, which just

0:28:34.240 --> 0:28:36.200
<v Speaker 11>goes to show, you know, you know, whilst it's not

0:28:36.800 --> 0:28:40.640
<v Speaker 11>absolutely mammoth as we have seen, it's still very big

0:28:40.800 --> 0:28:42.400
<v Speaker 11>and people are still making a lot of money.

0:28:42.800 --> 0:28:44.800
<v Speaker 2>Archie, I don't know anything about this company, traffic Aer,

0:28:45.000 --> 0:28:48.120
<v Speaker 2>primarily because it's a private company. A. Where is it based?

0:28:48.200 --> 0:28:49.600
<v Speaker 2>And b why is it public?

0:28:49.960 --> 0:28:55.640
<v Speaker 11>So Traffiicura is headquartered in Switzerland, but it's domstald in Singapore.

0:28:56.320 --> 0:28:59.479
<v Speaker 11>A lot of these commodity trading companies are very global

0:28:59.520 --> 0:29:04.080
<v Speaker 11>in their re but can be domiciled in various different jurisdictions.

0:29:04.480 --> 0:29:07.600
<v Speaker 11>Why isn't it public? I think you know that that's

0:29:07.640 --> 0:29:09.960
<v Speaker 11>been a question over the past few years. One is

0:29:10.280 --> 0:29:12.719
<v Speaker 11>that you have to open yourself up to a bit

0:29:12.760 --> 0:29:16.000
<v Speaker 11>more scrutiny. Like Trafficer has a bond, so it does

0:29:16.280 --> 0:29:19.520
<v Speaker 11>publish it's you know, its numbers to the market. But

0:29:19.840 --> 0:29:22.479
<v Speaker 11>I think you know, these these people have been doing

0:29:22.560 --> 0:29:25.800
<v Speaker 11>very well only in the company themselves. Why would they

0:29:25.840 --> 0:29:28.920
<v Speaker 11>need to raise more equity potentially? You know, they're still

0:29:28.960 --> 0:29:32.000
<v Speaker 11>getting huge amounts of money in financing from banks, which

0:29:32.040 --> 0:29:35.120
<v Speaker 11>is really the lifeblood of the trading industry, right. You know,

0:29:35.360 --> 0:29:39.400
<v Speaker 11>companies can buy and sell huge cargoes of oil or

0:29:39.480 --> 0:29:42.080
<v Speaker 11>copper on their own equity, but you know most of

0:29:42.160 --> 0:29:45.440
<v Speaker 11>the time they do it through tapping major banks for

0:29:45.680 --> 0:29:46.440
<v Speaker 11>financing lines.

0:29:46.680 --> 0:29:49.840
<v Speaker 4>Now, who are their customers? Are their customers also the

0:29:50.480 --> 0:29:53.440
<v Speaker 4>end users of these products, and certainly with the boom

0:29:53.480 --> 0:29:56.640
<v Speaker 4>and commodity prices, I would imagine that they've been heard.

0:29:57.240 --> 0:29:59.880
<v Speaker 11>So look, Trafficer noted in it in its results that

0:30:00.080 --> 0:30:01.920
<v Speaker 11>it had some clients that were struggling to deal with

0:30:02.400 --> 0:30:05.160
<v Speaker 11>the higher the normal commodity prices. I think you've got

0:30:05.200 --> 0:30:07.400
<v Speaker 11>to bear in mind that we might look on the

0:30:07.640 --> 0:30:11.440
<v Speaker 11>on the Bloemoe terminal, we might see commodity prices denominated

0:30:11.480 --> 0:30:14.600
<v Speaker 11>in dollars. Look, a lot of buyers, for example, of

0:30:14.720 --> 0:30:18.560
<v Speaker 11>like oil products in emerging markets, aren't buying those commodities

0:30:18.600 --> 0:30:20.880
<v Speaker 11>and dollars. They're buying them in their local currency. And

0:30:20.960 --> 0:30:23.160
<v Speaker 11>the dollar is appreciated, as we know, quite a bit

0:30:23.400 --> 0:30:25.480
<v Speaker 11>over the past a year or so, so you know,

0:30:25.600 --> 0:30:28.600
<v Speaker 11>that's even more expensive, and I think that's what they're

0:30:28.600 --> 0:30:31.280
<v Speaker 11>alluding to there. But look on the whole you can

0:30:31.360 --> 0:30:35.000
<v Speaker 11>see that high prices have started to have an impact

0:30:35.080 --> 0:30:39.280
<v Speaker 11>on demand in some commodities, or perhaps prices of as

0:30:39.320 --> 0:30:43.400
<v Speaker 11>traffic Gura said, and its results, prices for copper overran fundamentals.

0:30:43.480 --> 0:30:45.840
<v Speaker 11>So that's why I know you guys were talking a

0:30:45.880 --> 0:30:48.760
<v Speaker 11>little bit about the becom. You know, copper has retreated

0:30:49.600 --> 0:30:51.800
<v Speaker 11>a little bit over the past couple of weeks, in

0:30:51.880 --> 0:30:55.040
<v Speaker 11>part because I think market analysts feel that it's sort

0:30:55.040 --> 0:30:58.040
<v Speaker 11>of overrun the actual supply and demand dynamics.

0:30:58.200 --> 0:31:01.680
<v Speaker 4>All right. Thanks to Archie Hunter, Commodities Reporter, we.

0:31:01.760 --> 0:31:03.560
<v Speaker 2>Now take a look at one of the Bloomberg Big

0:31:03.640 --> 0:31:06.920
<v Speaker 2>Takes stories featured this week on Bloomberg Intelligence. It focuses

0:31:07.040 --> 0:31:10.040
<v Speaker 2>on former Treasury Secretary Steveh Nuchin, who now leads the

0:31:10.080 --> 0:31:12.760
<v Speaker 2>private equity firm Liberty Strategic Capital.

0:31:13.040 --> 0:31:17.120
<v Speaker 4>The Big Take piece is titled MANUSI Chases Wall Street

0:31:17.160 --> 0:31:19.520
<v Speaker 4>Glory with war chest of foreign money.

0:31:19.680 --> 0:31:21.520
<v Speaker 2>For more, guest host Jess Men and I were joined

0:31:21.520 --> 0:31:24.920
<v Speaker 2>by the story's author, Max Abelson, Bloomberg News Finance reporter.

0:31:25.160 --> 0:31:27.840
<v Speaker 2>We first asked Max for more context on his story.

0:31:28.480 --> 0:31:30.640
<v Speaker 12>This is a story I think at its heart, it's

0:31:30.680 --> 0:31:34.360
<v Speaker 12>really about ambition and what we write about in the story.

0:31:34.400 --> 0:31:36.920
<v Speaker 12>Although I should say, I should say, mess my servant

0:31:37.040 --> 0:31:39.720
<v Speaker 12>I write about it in this story is that you

0:31:39.760 --> 0:31:43.160
<v Speaker 12>know what we saw eight years ago when when Zachmeider

0:31:43.200 --> 0:31:46.760
<v Speaker 12>and I wrote that BusinessWeek profile of Mnuchins as Trump's moneyman,

0:31:47.280 --> 0:31:49.320
<v Speaker 12>you were able to kind of get a snapshot of

0:31:49.400 --> 0:31:51.520
<v Speaker 12>what it looks like when someone tries to take their

0:31:51.600 --> 0:31:54.320
<v Speaker 12>Wall Street wealth and turn it into Washington power.

0:31:54.440 --> 0:31:56.040
<v Speaker 2>And he did that. He was successful.

0:31:56.080 --> 0:31:57.920
<v Speaker 12>You know, people I think look down their nose at it.

0:31:57.960 --> 0:31:59.960
<v Speaker 12>They thought they thought Trump's campaign was ridiculous when he

0:32:00.040 --> 0:32:02.600
<v Speaker 12>when he agreed to do it, they were wrong. Manutia

0:32:02.680 --> 0:32:05.440
<v Speaker 12>really saw something that other people missed, and Trump won,

0:32:05.640 --> 0:32:08.440
<v Speaker 12>he became Treasury secretary. You kind of forget this, But

0:32:08.720 --> 0:32:11.440
<v Speaker 12>people went in and out those four years. Manucha stayed.

0:32:11.840 --> 0:32:14.440
<v Speaker 12>He kept his head down. And what this story is

0:32:14.480 --> 0:32:18.560
<v Speaker 12>about is capturing him as he takes that Washington power

0:32:18.720 --> 0:32:22.080
<v Speaker 12>that he accumulated and he turns it into even more money.

0:32:22.120 --> 0:32:24.840
<v Speaker 12>And it's a story about scale. I mean, this guy

0:32:25.040 --> 0:32:28.240
<v Speaker 12>was an investor beforehand. Now he's a big investor. He's

0:32:28.240 --> 0:32:31.040
<v Speaker 12>got this big war chest of Middle East money. He's

0:32:31.080 --> 0:32:33.200
<v Speaker 12>going for deals that could be kind of like, I

0:32:33.240 --> 0:32:35.320
<v Speaker 12>don't know, it's a little silly to say world historic.

0:32:35.440 --> 0:32:37.960
<v Speaker 12>But if this guy can pull off a deal for TikTok,

0:32:38.880 --> 0:32:41.360
<v Speaker 12>it's going to send him into this echelon of You're

0:32:41.400 --> 0:32:42.920
<v Speaker 12>gonna have to read the story to understand this, but

0:32:43.040 --> 0:32:45.600
<v Speaker 12>you know, not just gorillas, but the senior gorillas of

0:32:45.680 --> 0:32:46.440
<v Speaker 12>global finance.

0:32:46.640 --> 0:32:51.120
<v Speaker 8>TikTok walk us through this about how that's associated with

0:32:51.400 --> 0:32:54.720
<v Speaker 8>how when it comes to this war chest of wealth

0:32:54.760 --> 0:32:55.520
<v Speaker 8>that he's been building.

0:32:55.600 --> 0:32:57.200
<v Speaker 12>Yep, So let me take you back in time. So

0:32:57.600 --> 0:33:00.120
<v Speaker 12>I think you and I spoke back in March, and

0:33:00.320 --> 0:33:03.080
<v Speaker 12>New York Community Bank was I mean, it was mayhem.

0:33:03.280 --> 0:33:05.200
<v Speaker 12>There was news that leaked that New York Community Bank

0:33:05.240 --> 0:33:07.320
<v Speaker 12>really needed capital, and that is not good. If you're

0:33:07.360 --> 0:33:10.080
<v Speaker 12>a bank, you do not want news out saying, you know,

0:33:10.240 --> 0:33:13.920
<v Speaker 12>it'd be a nice to ray some cash. Unbeknownst to

0:33:14.000 --> 0:33:16.600
<v Speaker 12>us at the time when that headline hit, Mnuchin and

0:33:16.680 --> 0:33:19.880
<v Speaker 12>some partners were like basically a day away from investing

0:33:19.880 --> 0:33:21.640
<v Speaker 12>in New York Community Bank, and they decided, you we

0:33:21.760 --> 0:33:25.400
<v Speaker 12>still go forward, and they did. Of course that actually

0:33:25.520 --> 0:33:27.440
<v Speaker 12>on paper, you know what their profits on that New

0:33:27.520 --> 0:33:29.760
<v Speaker 12>York Community Bank deal, they have made a pretty penny

0:33:29.800 --> 0:33:32.880
<v Speaker 12>at least on paper, Like basically doubling their money. But

0:33:33.440 --> 0:33:37.440
<v Speaker 12>a few days after that deal closed, he goes on

0:33:37.600 --> 0:33:41.520
<v Speaker 12>TV and he says, you know what, I'm putting together

0:33:41.560 --> 0:33:43.800
<v Speaker 12>a deal to buy TikTok. I've got a plan. And

0:33:43.920 --> 0:33:46.440
<v Speaker 12>it was weird for a couple of reasons. One because

0:33:46.800 --> 0:33:48.680
<v Speaker 12>New York Community Bank made a lot of sense for

0:33:48.720 --> 0:33:51.640
<v Speaker 12>Steven Mnuchin because he bought do you remember remember One West,

0:33:51.800 --> 0:33:54.160
<v Speaker 12>Remember that bank deal he did. New York Community Bank

0:33:54.200 --> 0:33:56.680
<v Speaker 12>makes sense in that like TikTok. On the other hand,

0:33:57.000 --> 0:33:59.160
<v Speaker 12>you know, the guy invested in Hollywood. People forget about

0:33:59.200 --> 0:34:02.520
<v Speaker 12>that muchin find out some serious blockbusters, including Avatar if

0:34:02.560 --> 0:34:06.400
<v Speaker 12>you saw it. But you know, it's like why TikTok?

0:34:06.920 --> 0:34:09.880
<v Speaker 12>And I think the way he sees it is according

0:34:09.880 --> 0:34:12.160
<v Speaker 12>to interviews with people who aren't working on that deal

0:34:12.200 --> 0:34:14.200
<v Speaker 12>with him, but no him, well, it's like he's got

0:34:14.280 --> 0:34:16.520
<v Speaker 12>an edge and when it comes to national security matters,

0:34:16.560 --> 0:34:19.520
<v Speaker 12>and don't forget TikTok is now by law, the Chinese

0:34:19.600 --> 0:34:22.560
<v Speaker 12>parent companies essentially gonna have to sell it. So he

0:34:22.640 --> 0:34:24.759
<v Speaker 12>thinks he's got an edge with national security and then

0:34:24.800 --> 0:34:27.680
<v Speaker 12>also with deal making. On the other hand, his fund

0:34:27.760 --> 0:34:29.480
<v Speaker 12>is like maybe three billion dollars or so it is

0:34:29.600 --> 0:34:31.759
<v Speaker 12>going to take a lot more than that to buy

0:34:31.880 --> 0:34:33.880
<v Speaker 12>TikTok here in the States. We're going to be watching

0:34:33.960 --> 0:34:35.560
<v Speaker 12>to see if what kind of partners he can bring

0:34:35.600 --> 0:34:37.920
<v Speaker 12>together and if he buys his first ever you know,

0:34:38.200 --> 0:34:39.200
<v Speaker 12>social media empire.

0:34:39.520 --> 0:34:42.799
<v Speaker 2>All right, I senior reporting Max, Mister Mnutchen made about

0:34:42.840 --> 0:34:45.840
<v Speaker 2>thirty visits to the Middle Eastern nations while in office.

0:34:46.320 --> 0:34:49.680
<v Speaker 2>That's around as many as is European and Asian visits combined.

0:34:49.719 --> 0:34:52.080
<v Speaker 2>So we spent a lot of time there when in office.

0:34:52.480 --> 0:34:54.719
<v Speaker 2>Is that getting translating into some investors in his fund?

0:34:54.880 --> 0:34:56.840
<v Speaker 12>I think I think that's really a key question. So

0:34:56.960 --> 0:34:59.320
<v Speaker 12>out of fairness, I just want to cite his spokesperson,

0:34:59.360 --> 0:35:02.320
<v Speaker 12>a guy by the of Devon O'Malley, who liked to

0:35:02.360 --> 0:35:04.000
<v Speaker 12>say to me while I was reporting the story that

0:35:04.719 --> 0:35:08.080
<v Speaker 12>those thirty visits, according to him, are like different legs

0:35:08.200 --> 0:35:10.960
<v Speaker 12>of just nine trips to a region that he describes

0:35:11.000 --> 0:35:13.879
<v Speaker 12>as is like, you know, highly strategically important. O'Malley would

0:35:13.880 --> 0:35:17.000
<v Speaker 12>say that Nusian was advancing US foreign policy economic interests,

0:35:17.120 --> 0:35:19.520
<v Speaker 12>not going to collect money. But I think as a

0:35:19.560 --> 0:35:23.080
<v Speaker 12>matter of historical record, you can see Mnusian going to

0:35:23.680 --> 0:35:25.799
<v Speaker 12>the United Arab Emirates. You could see him going to Cutter,

0:35:25.840 --> 0:35:28.160
<v Speaker 12>you can see him going to Saudi Arabia. And you know,

0:35:29.120 --> 0:35:31.680
<v Speaker 12>I'm talking about not just at his time at when

0:35:31.719 --> 0:35:33.840
<v Speaker 12>he was Treasury secretary, but certainly in the months after that.

0:35:34.320 --> 0:35:36.319
<v Speaker 12>And what does he end up with. He ends up

0:35:36.360 --> 0:35:38.440
<v Speaker 12>with a fund, as I say, about three billion dollars,

0:35:38.520 --> 0:35:40.560
<v Speaker 12>and a lot of that money is coming from the

0:35:40.560 --> 0:35:43.160
<v Speaker 12>Middle East. These are essentially the deepest pockets in the world,

0:35:43.239 --> 0:35:47.160
<v Speaker 12>the sovereign wealth funds essentially. And you know, if you're

0:35:47.200 --> 0:35:49.960
<v Speaker 12>an investor, that means that you get to play with

0:35:50.080 --> 0:35:53.040
<v Speaker 12>some pretty fun money. He's gonna need some more money

0:35:53.120 --> 0:35:55.040
<v Speaker 12>than that if he wants to do TikTok, but it

0:35:55.160 --> 0:35:58.040
<v Speaker 12>means that it's turned him into a essentially a private

0:35:58.080 --> 0:35:59.959
<v Speaker 12>equity investor on a really big scale.

0:36:00.200 --> 0:36:03.600
<v Speaker 8>Where else does he have his eyes on next beyond TikTok?

0:36:04.000 --> 0:36:04.200
<v Speaker 5>Well?

0:36:04.600 --> 0:36:07.000
<v Speaker 12>I had some fun reporting on the story. Not as

0:36:07.040 --> 0:36:08.960
<v Speaker 12>much fun as that famous picture of him holding up

0:36:09.000 --> 0:36:09.359
<v Speaker 12>the cash.

0:36:09.480 --> 0:36:11.120
<v Speaker 8>I feel like we all remember that photo of the

0:36:11.200 --> 0:36:12.520
<v Speaker 8>cash that it.

0:36:12.600 --> 0:36:15.560
<v Speaker 12>Was more fun. But I had fun looking at cybersecurity.

0:36:16.040 --> 0:36:20.200
<v Speaker 12>Not only did Liberty take over an entire cybersecurity company. Rather,

0:36:20.239 --> 0:36:22.440
<v Speaker 12>it's a mobile security platform. It's called Simperium. I don't

0:36:22.440 --> 0:36:25.280
<v Speaker 12>know if you've heard of that. But he has plowed

0:36:25.360 --> 0:36:28.920
<v Speaker 12>money into cyber Reason, Contrast Security, Blue Voyant, and these

0:36:28.920 --> 0:36:31.319
<v Speaker 12>are some interesting cybersecurity startups, and I want to tell

0:36:31.360 --> 0:36:33.800
<v Speaker 12>you not all of them have been a pretty picture.

0:36:34.280 --> 0:36:36.560
<v Speaker 12>Liberty about twenty million shares of satell Logic for like

0:36:36.680 --> 0:36:38.719
<v Speaker 12>seven fifty each. You know, back in twenty twenty two

0:36:39.440 --> 0:36:41.439
<v Speaker 12>was below a dollar twenty the last time I checked.

0:36:41.800 --> 0:36:44.640
<v Speaker 12>And then there's cyber Reason that was supposed to be

0:36:44.719 --> 0:36:47.760
<v Speaker 12>worth like billions of dollars when he made his investment.

0:36:48.239 --> 0:36:50.840
<v Speaker 12>The valuation now is said to be like three hundred

0:36:50.880 --> 0:36:53.160
<v Speaker 12>million dollars. You do not want that order, you know,

0:36:53.239 --> 0:36:55.160
<v Speaker 12>you're supposed to invest when it's worth three hundred million

0:36:55.160 --> 0:36:57.920
<v Speaker 12>dollars and then sell when it's worth billions. So manuchen

0:36:58.200 --> 0:37:00.799
<v Speaker 12>is you know, it's been really fun sort of take

0:37:00.840 --> 0:37:02.040
<v Speaker 12>me a snapshot of ambition.

0:37:02.160 --> 0:37:03.120
<v Speaker 4>But I want to be clear with you.

0:37:03.560 --> 0:37:06.640
<v Speaker 12>It's not a story of like these waltzing into becoming

0:37:06.680 --> 0:37:08.880
<v Speaker 12>a multi billionaire. It's going to be much more interesting

0:37:09.040 --> 0:37:10.800
<v Speaker 12>and a little bit more up and down than that.

0:37:11.200 --> 0:37:14.000
<v Speaker 2>Is he in it just for the money, or does

0:37:14.040 --> 0:37:15.760
<v Speaker 2>he want to be thought of in the same sense

0:37:15.800 --> 0:37:18.600
<v Speaker 2>as Julian Robertson at George Soros as some of those

0:37:18.880 --> 0:37:20.000
<v Speaker 2>big legendary names.

0:37:20.120 --> 0:37:22.200
<v Speaker 12>Thank you for asking that, you know his old boss

0:37:22.239 --> 0:37:24.759
<v Speaker 12>at Omen Sachs. John Corzine said to me, look, Max,

0:37:24.960 --> 0:37:26.879
<v Speaker 12>money's nice. I get it, I get it, but it's

0:37:26.920 --> 0:37:28.960
<v Speaker 12>more than that. I was actually kind of moved by

0:37:29.000 --> 0:37:31.680
<v Speaker 12>something John Corzin said to me, because don't forget Corsin

0:37:31.760 --> 0:37:33.959
<v Speaker 12>after running Goldman. Yeah, I mean I think I believe

0:37:34.000 --> 0:37:35.799
<v Speaker 12>you're a New Jersey or one one of you two

0:37:35.840 --> 0:37:39.239
<v Speaker 12>live in New Jersey. They're both right. You know, Corzine

0:37:39.280 --> 0:37:41.920
<v Speaker 12>managed to do the same thing. He went from finance

0:37:42.000 --> 0:37:44.040
<v Speaker 12>into government and he was successful. He was a senator,

0:37:44.120 --> 0:37:47.040
<v Speaker 12>he's a governor. Corzine said that there's this feeling of

0:37:47.160 --> 0:37:50.120
<v Speaker 12>being important and being at that table. Once you're at

0:37:50.200 --> 0:37:52.880
<v Speaker 12>that table of global influence, it is really hard to

0:37:52.960 --> 0:37:54.480
<v Speaker 12>leave it. Corsiin said to me, you know, this whole

0:37:54.520 --> 0:37:55.879
<v Speaker 12>quote didn't make it into the story, but he said,

0:37:55.920 --> 0:37:59.279
<v Speaker 12>you know, some people are programmed that they leave that

0:37:59.440 --> 0:38:02.799
<v Speaker 12>table of global importance and global influence and they're able

0:38:02.840 --> 0:38:04.480
<v Speaker 12>to go do something else. You know, It's like I

0:38:04.600 --> 0:38:07.680
<v Speaker 12>like gardening on weekends. You know and some people some

0:38:07.920 --> 0:38:11.600
<v Speaker 12>people want more influence and want more opportunity and want

0:38:11.640 --> 0:38:14.719
<v Speaker 12>to be more engaged and can't disengage. And I think

0:38:14.800 --> 0:38:16.240
<v Speaker 12>that helps explain Stephen MANUCI.

0:38:16.560 --> 0:38:18.680
<v Speaker 2>Thanks to Max Abelson, Bloomberg News Financial Reporter.

0:38:18.920 --> 0:38:19.520
<v Speaker 8>This is the.

0:38:19.600 --> 0:38:24.399
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