Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Let's turn back to the labor market. The government shut
Speaker 2: down holding the release of the payroll data. Becky Frankewitz
Speaker 2: of Manpac Group, one of the world's leading staffing companies,
Speaker 2: writes the following, The official jobs report might be on pause,
Speaker 2: but the labor market keeps moving and our data shows
Speaker 2: a market in transition. Becky joins us now for more. Becky,
Speaker 2: welcome to the show. It's been too long. What are
Speaker 2: we transitioning from and to what?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 3: So, first, it's a strange no jobs report jobs Friday.
Speaker 3: So usually we say happy jobs Friday, and it is
Speaker 3: still a happy jobs Friday.
Speaker 1: Because we see.
Speaker 3: Real time, real world data and John, we're watching three trends. First,
Speaker 3: job hugging is the new job switching, so we're not
Speaker 3: seeing workers switch jobs anymore. We're seeing them hold onto
Speaker 3: their jobs. In fact, switching us down fifty percent in
Speaker 3: the last two years, so workers are staying put. The
Speaker 3: second big trend that we're seeing is lateral is a
Speaker 3: new vertical. Employers are holding on to their talent and
Speaker 3: so there's this change called micro mobility where we're seeing
Speaker 3: people change titles but not change companies. And the final
Speaker 3: piece I'd say is growth isn't gone, it's just moved.
Speaker 3: So we're seeing growth in immediate benefit roles, a lot
Speaker 3: of growth in the data scientists, databased architects, things that
Speaker 3: are tech forward, and we're seeing some shifts in and
Speaker 3: even manufacturing where we're seeing blue collar workers like engineers,
Speaker 3: people who are on the front line in terms of
Speaker 3: manufacturing starting to grow.
Speaker 1: Logistics is a little bit soft.
Speaker 3: Of course, education, retail is showing some strength, but there
Speaker 3: is still growth.
Speaker 1: You just have to look harder to find it.
Speaker 4: Bekay, is there growth in entry level jobs?
Speaker 3: And Marie, it's one of the top things we're watching.
Speaker 3: So if you said what are you watching closely, I
Speaker 3: would tell you impact of AI and entry level jobs.
Speaker 3: We are seeing reduced demand for the educated yet inexperienced,
Speaker 3: and that is people coming out of college. So employers
Speaker 3: are prioritizing people who have actual experience because again they
Speaker 3: want immediate impact. Employers aren't hiring to develop people, They're
Speaker 3: hiring to actually get benefit from their hires today, and
Speaker 3: that is impacting our entry level professionals.
Speaker 4: Historically, what kind of time can you reckon this back
Speaker 4: to when did we see such a weak environment for
Speaker 4: entry level jobs.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's been a long time memory. We're we're not
Speaker 3: in the two thousand and eight stage yet, which was
Speaker 3: a huge crisis. But we are seeing a drop of
Speaker 3: about six percent in terms of the demand for entry
Speaker 3: level jobs. And it's coming at the same time the
Speaker 3: overall job market is continuing to cool.
Speaker 1: It's not just cooled, it's continuing to cool.
Speaker 3: We see total jobs posted again, I don't need BLS
Speaker 3: to tell you this. We look every day. Total jobs
Speaker 3: posted have dropped under seven million. It's always been a
Speaker 3: seven million mark, under seven million in to the lowest
Speaker 3: level in four years. And we're seeing this overall slowing
Speaker 3: in jobs, and we're seeing a change and the kinds
Speaker 3: of jobs people are hiring entry level And in part
Speaker 3: it's a bit of weight and see on AI. I
Speaker 3: heard one of your prior guests talk about that. It's
Speaker 3: a bit of weight and see. But it's also a
Speaker 3: bit of economic uncertainty causing me to prioritize today versus tomorrow.
Speaker 2: Becky, can we just pick up on the AI point.
Speaker 2: Where are you seeing that, how's it showing up and
Speaker 2: how you do your draw a distinction between what is
Speaker 2: driven by AI and what's driven by traditional broader economic concerns.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Well, it's hard to break apart, John, if I'm honest,
Speaker 3: but I'll tell you what the data is showing us,
Speaker 3: and the data is showing us that.
Speaker 1: Tech forward roles are surging again.
Speaker 3: Database scientists, data architects, anything on security is surging today.
Speaker 3: Of course, we've seen some softening and software developers, but
Speaker 3: guess what, back to entry level roles, it's still one
Speaker 3: of the top three entry level roles. It's down almost
Speaker 3: fifty percent year over year, but it's still in volume,
Speaker 3: one of the top three.
Speaker 1: So we're seeing a pretty balanced view on AI right now.
Speaker 3: Employers are still telling us that if they're more tech
Speaker 3: forward as an employer digitizing faster, they're intending to hire more.
Speaker 3: We're waiting to see that play out, but right now,
Speaker 3: I would say we're seeing a balanced view on AI.
Speaker 3: But there is a lot of weight and see on
Speaker 3: the promise of the impact of what AI can give
Speaker 3: our economy.
Speaker 2: So, Becky, are you seeing any supply side issues, because
Speaker 2: the big debate on Wall Street is yes, we've seen
Speaker 2: a step down in payrolls growth, but we've also seen
Speaker 2: a step down and supply and the economics will come
Speaker 2: on the program and some of them disagree with each other.
Speaker 2: Some might say this is bad, we need to respond
Speaker 2: to it. Others might say, well, this is a supply
Speaker 2: side story. Yes, you've had a step down in payrolls,
Speaker 2: but you've not had an increase in labor market slack.
Speaker 2: From your standpoint, is there a supply side issue? Do
Speaker 2: you see that showing up in the business.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're not seeing significant supply side issues, John. What
Speaker 3: I would say we're seeing is a bit of it.
Speaker 3: I'm not using it economically, a bit of stagnation in
Speaker 3: terms of mobility. People are staying put, and when people
Speaker 3: stay put, it is harder to free up some of
Speaker 3: the supply to actually generate this transition that normally underpins
Speaker 3: our economy. When I tell you that job switching is
Speaker 3: down fifty percent five zero in the last two years,
Speaker 3: that is significant and that's not having an impact on
Speaker 3: overall supply, but it is having an impact on mobility,
Speaker 3: and mobility generally leads to growth in our economy.
Speaker 4: Does this mean workers are not asking for higher wages?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Great, great question, Amory. What we're seeing now again, during
Speaker 3: the heights of the pandemic, we saw huge bonuses for
Speaker 3: switching jobs. We're seeing that level has dropped below seven percent.
Speaker 3: So the premium on switching a job in terms of
Speaker 3: your pay increase, traditionally runs around seven percent. We've seen
Speaker 3: that now dropped about six and three quarters. So we're
Speaker 3: not in sending people to move, and we're seeing an
Speaker 3: increase in people who stay put. So I'm telling you
Speaker 3: this whole idea of job hugging is real from the
Speaker 3: employee view. And this idea of lateral not vertical, giving
Speaker 3: titles and a little bit of pay is real from
Speaker 3: an employee point of view. So they're coming together in
Speaker 3: a way that people aren't moving.
Speaker 4: Workers that are able though, to move structurally higher in
Speaker 4: an organization because they moved an organization. What sectors is
Speaker 4: that happening in.
Speaker 3: So Amory, we're seeing only two sectors we're seeing this
Speaker 3: increase in switching, if you will.
Speaker 1: That is construction and that is in the financial markets.
Speaker 3: And you've seen the headlines on the financial analysts that
Speaker 3: are switching all over New York City. So those two
Speaker 3: roles still have quite a bit of agency and we
Speaker 3: are seeing switching there. But for the others, we're really
Speaker 3: seeing people stay put.
Speaker 2: So, Becky, we've been in this low chain dynamic in
Speaker 2: the labor market for a while now. Economists have been
Speaker 2: talking about it on this program. You have too. When
Speaker 2: things break one way or the other, we're always looking
Speaker 2: for that early indication. Now, correct me if I'm wrong.
Speaker 2: I think you used to lead Quaker Foods when you
Speaker 2: over saw that business. Becky, what kind of behavioral changes
Speaker 2: were always looking out for for a leaning indicator of
Speaker 2: which way this economy was about to break?
Speaker 1: Yeah, so John, you're taking me in the wayback machine.
Speaker 3: Now, we would look at number of items in the basket,
Speaker 3: and so how many goods are people buying? Trips to
Speaker 3: store average purchase price that you're actually putting in your basket.
Speaker 3: And I know now from the jobs market report or
Speaker 3: what we see in terms of people actually hiring who's
Speaker 3: hiring today, it is the cost conscious consumer companies that
Speaker 3: are hiring. Domino's is hiring, Low's is hiring. So we're
Speaker 3: not seeing the high end retailers hiring. We're seeing the
Speaker 3: more accessible retailers hiring, which tells me in terms of
Speaker 3: early indicator, people are still very cost conscious, uncertain about
Speaker 3: what's coming, and holding.
Speaker 1: Onto their dollars like they're holding onto their jobs.
Speaker 2: Becky, this was great. Let's do it again soon. Let's
Speaker 2: go to see who needs the jobs report when you've
Speaker 2: got Becky Frankowitz of Manpack Group