1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:07,360 --> 00:00:09,600 Speaker 2: Let's turn back to the labor market. The government shut 3 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 2: down holding the release of the payroll data. Becky Frankewitz 4 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:15,920 Speaker 2: of Manpac Group, one of the world's leading staffing companies, 5 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 2: writes the following, The official jobs report might be on pause, 6 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:22,360 Speaker 2: but the labor market keeps moving and our data shows 7 00:00:22,600 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 2: a market in transition. Becky joins us now for more. Becky, 8 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 2: welcome to the show. It's been too long. What are 9 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:30,639 Speaker 2: we transitioning from and to what? 10 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 1: Yeah? 11 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:36,159 Speaker 3: So, first, it's a strange no jobs report jobs Friday. 12 00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 3: So usually we say happy jobs Friday, and it is 13 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 3: still a happy jobs Friday. 14 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:41,360 Speaker 1: Because we see. 15 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 3: Real time, real world data and John, we're watching three trends. First, 16 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 3: job hugging is the new job switching, so we're not 17 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:53,240 Speaker 3: seeing workers switch jobs anymore. We're seeing them hold onto 18 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:57,279 Speaker 3: their jobs. In fact, switching us down fifty percent in 19 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:00,279 Speaker 3: the last two years, so workers are staying put. The 20 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:03,080 Speaker 3: second big trend that we're seeing is lateral is a 21 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:06,760 Speaker 3: new vertical. Employers are holding on to their talent and 22 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 3: so there's this change called micro mobility where we're seeing 23 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 3: people change titles but not change companies. And the final 24 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:17,960 Speaker 3: piece I'd say is growth isn't gone, it's just moved. 25 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:21,679 Speaker 3: So we're seeing growth in immediate benefit roles, a lot 26 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:26,320 Speaker 3: of growth in the data scientists, databased architects, things that 27 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 3: are tech forward, and we're seeing some shifts in and 28 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 3: even manufacturing where we're seeing blue collar workers like engineers, 29 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:35,679 Speaker 3: people who are on the front line in terms of 30 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 3: manufacturing starting to grow. 31 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 1: Logistics is a little bit soft. 32 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:43,040 Speaker 3: Of course, education, retail is showing some strength, but there 33 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 3: is still growth. 34 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:45,640 Speaker 1: You just have to look harder to find it. 35 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 4: Bekay, is there growth in entry level jobs? 36 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 3: And Marie, it's one of the top things we're watching. 37 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:53,160 Speaker 3: So if you said what are you watching closely, I 38 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 3: would tell you impact of AI and entry level jobs. 39 00:01:56,120 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 3: We are seeing reduced demand for the educated yet inexperienced, 40 00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:04,919 Speaker 3: and that is people coming out of college. So employers 41 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:09,240 Speaker 3: are prioritizing people who have actual experience because again they 42 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 3: want immediate impact. Employers aren't hiring to develop people, They're 43 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 3: hiring to actually get benefit from their hires today, and 44 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:18,919 Speaker 3: that is impacting our entry level professionals. 45 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 4: Historically, what kind of time can you reckon this back 46 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 4: to when did we see such a weak environment for 47 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 4: entry level jobs. 48 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:31,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's been a long time memory. We're we're not 49 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:34,920 Speaker 3: in the two thousand and eight stage yet, which was 50 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 3: a huge crisis. But we are seeing a drop of 51 00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 3: about six percent in terms of the demand for entry 52 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:43,080 Speaker 3: level jobs. And it's coming at the same time the 53 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 3: overall job market is continuing to cool. 54 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: It's not just cooled, it's continuing to cool. 55 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:51,959 Speaker 3: We see total jobs posted again, I don't need BLS 56 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:54,800 Speaker 3: to tell you this. We look every day. Total jobs 57 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 3: posted have dropped under seven million. It's always been a 58 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 3: seven million mark, under seven million in to the lowest 59 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 3: level in four years. And we're seeing this overall slowing 60 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:07,320 Speaker 3: in jobs, and we're seeing a change and the kinds 61 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 3: of jobs people are hiring entry level And in part 62 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 3: it's a bit of weight and see on AI. I 63 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 3: heard one of your prior guests talk about that. It's 64 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 3: a bit of weight and see. But it's also a 65 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:21,079 Speaker 3: bit of economic uncertainty causing me to prioritize today versus tomorrow. 66 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 2: Becky, can we just pick up on the AI point. 67 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:26,360 Speaker 2: Where are you seeing that, how's it showing up and 68 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:28,679 Speaker 2: how you do your draw a distinction between what is 69 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 2: driven by AI and what's driven by traditional broader economic concerns. 70 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 1: Yeah. 71 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 3: Well, it's hard to break apart, John, if I'm honest, 72 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 3: but I'll tell you what the data is showing us, 73 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 3: and the data is showing us that. 74 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 1: Tech forward roles are surging again. 75 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 3: Database scientists, data architects, anything on security is surging today. 76 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 3: Of course, we've seen some softening and software developers, but 77 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 3: guess what, back to entry level roles, it's still one 78 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 3: of the top three entry level roles. It's down almost 79 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:00,440 Speaker 3: fifty percent year over year, but it's still in volume, 80 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 3: one of the top three. 81 00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 1: So we're seeing a pretty balanced view on AI right now. 82 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 3: Employers are still telling us that if they're more tech 83 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:12,680 Speaker 3: forward as an employer digitizing faster, they're intending to hire more. 84 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 3: We're waiting to see that play out, but right now, 85 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:17,360 Speaker 3: I would say we're seeing a balanced view on AI. 86 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 3: But there is a lot of weight and see on 87 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:22,560 Speaker 3: the promise of the impact of what AI can give 88 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 3: our economy. 89 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:26,200 Speaker 2: So, Becky, are you seeing any supply side issues, because 90 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 2: the big debate on Wall Street is yes, we've seen 91 00:04:28,560 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 2: a step down in payrolls growth, but we've also seen 92 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 2: a step down and supply and the economics will come 93 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:36,039 Speaker 2: on the program and some of them disagree with each other. 94 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 2: Some might say this is bad, we need to respond 95 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:40,480 Speaker 2: to it. Others might say, well, this is a supply 96 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:43,160 Speaker 2: side story. Yes, you've had a step down in payrolls, 97 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:45,279 Speaker 2: but you've not had an increase in labor market slack. 98 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:48,280 Speaker 2: From your standpoint, is there a supply side issue? Do 99 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:49,719 Speaker 2: you see that showing up in the business. 100 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, we're not seeing significant supply side issues, John. What 101 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:55,960 Speaker 3: I would say we're seeing is a bit of it. 102 00:04:55,960 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 3: I'm not using it economically, a bit of stagnation in 103 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 3: terms of mobility. People are staying put, and when people 104 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 3: stay put, it is harder to free up some of 105 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:09,040 Speaker 3: the supply to actually generate this transition that normally underpins 106 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 3: our economy. When I tell you that job switching is 107 00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:15,279 Speaker 3: down fifty percent five zero in the last two years, 108 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,159 Speaker 3: that is significant and that's not having an impact on 109 00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:21,359 Speaker 3: overall supply, but it is having an impact on mobility, 110 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:23,920 Speaker 3: and mobility generally leads to growth in our economy. 111 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 4: Does this mean workers are not asking for higher wages? 112 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:27,560 Speaker 2: Yeah? 113 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 3: Great, great question, Amory. What we're seeing now again, during 114 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:33,839 Speaker 3: the heights of the pandemic, we saw huge bonuses for 115 00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 3: switching jobs. We're seeing that level has dropped below seven percent. 116 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 3: So the premium on switching a job in terms of 117 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 3: your pay increase, traditionally runs around seven percent. We've seen 118 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:48,200 Speaker 3: that now dropped about six and three quarters. So we're 119 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:50,240 Speaker 3: not in sending people to move, and we're seeing an 120 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:52,839 Speaker 3: increase in people who stay put. So I'm telling you 121 00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:55,359 Speaker 3: this whole idea of job hugging is real from the 122 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:59,799 Speaker 3: employee view. And this idea of lateral not vertical, giving 123 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:02,360 Speaker 3: titles and a little bit of pay is real from 124 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:04,919 Speaker 3: an employee point of view. So they're coming together in 125 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 3: a way that people aren't moving. 126 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 4: Workers that are able though, to move structurally higher in 127 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:13,560 Speaker 4: an organization because they moved an organization. What sectors is 128 00:06:13,560 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 4: that happening in. 129 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:18,320 Speaker 3: So Amory, we're seeing only two sectors we're seeing this 130 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:20,360 Speaker 3: increase in switching, if you will. 131 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 1: That is construction and that is in the financial markets. 132 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 3: And you've seen the headlines on the financial analysts that 133 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:28,840 Speaker 3: are switching all over New York City. So those two 134 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 3: roles still have quite a bit of agency and we 135 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:33,760 Speaker 3: are seeing switching there. But for the others, we're really 136 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 3: seeing people stay put. 137 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 2: So, Becky, we've been in this low chain dynamic in 138 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 2: the labor market for a while now. Economists have been 139 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:43,479 Speaker 2: talking about it on this program. You have too. When 140 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 2: things break one way or the other, we're always looking 141 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 2: for that early indication. Now, correct me if I'm wrong. 142 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:50,719 Speaker 2: I think you used to lead Quaker Foods when you 143 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:54,000 Speaker 2: over saw that business. Becky, what kind of behavioral changes 144 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:56,960 Speaker 2: were always looking out for for a leaning indicator of 145 00:06:56,960 --> 00:06:59,120 Speaker 2: which way this economy was about to break? 146 00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:01,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, so John, you're taking me in the wayback machine. 147 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 3: Now, we would look at number of items in the basket, 148 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:07,839 Speaker 3: and so how many goods are people buying? Trips to 149 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 3: store average purchase price that you're actually putting in your basket. 150 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 3: And I know now from the jobs market report or 151 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:17,679 Speaker 3: what we see in terms of people actually hiring who's 152 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 3: hiring today, it is the cost conscious consumer companies that 153 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 3: are hiring. Domino's is hiring, Low's is hiring. So we're 154 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 3: not seeing the high end retailers hiring. We're seeing the 155 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 3: more accessible retailers hiring, which tells me in terms of 156 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:36,000 Speaker 3: early indicator, people are still very cost conscious, uncertain about 157 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:38,280 Speaker 3: what's coming, and holding. 158 00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:39,960 Speaker 1: Onto their dollars like they're holding onto their jobs. 159 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 2: Becky, this was great. Let's do it again soon. Let's 160 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 2: go to see who needs the jobs report when you've 161 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:45,880 Speaker 2: got Becky Frankowitz of Manpack Group