1
00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,920
Speaker 1: What does invading Iran actually look like, what would we face,

2
00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:07,320
Speaker 1: how many troops would we need, what would happen economically,

3
00:00:07,760 --> 00:00:10,560
Speaker 1: and definitely what would be the political fallout?

4
00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:12,880
Speaker 2: Today on the David Rutherford.

5
00:00:12,440 --> 00:00:25,080
Speaker 1: Show, Welcome back to the show, everybody, I'm David Rutherford,

6
00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:28,200
Speaker 1: your host. Thank you so much for all the support lately.

7
00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:31,800
Speaker 1: It's been been incredible. We really appreciate you.

8
00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:32,280
Speaker 2: Again.

9
00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:36,400
Speaker 1: What helps us is if you like, subscribe and share,

10
00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:40,040
Speaker 1: tell all your friends you're getting good quality content and

11
00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:42,800
Speaker 1: we're delivering on our promise to give you the flash

12
00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:46,800
Speaker 1: bang of truth and to contextualize the tsunami of information

13
00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:49,760
Speaker 1: coming at you. All right, let's get started. Where are

14
00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:52,720
Speaker 1: we right now with the Iranian war? All right, So

15
00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:56,960
Speaker 1: we launched on February twenty eighth. Right, we've had probably

16
00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:00,920
Speaker 1: over one thousand strikes in the first couple twelve hours.

17
00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:05,679
Speaker 1: We killed the Supreme Leader and his family in a

18
00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:09,600
Speaker 1: ton of the other up echelon right, Operation Epic Fury.

19
00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:13,800
Speaker 1: As we're twenty one days into this thing, we've had

20
00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:21,679
Speaker 1: over seven thousand US targets struck seventy six hundred Israeli strikes,

21
00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:26,360
Speaker 1: and we'd have a pretty aggressive air campaign on Iranian

22
00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:30,720
Speaker 1: naval vessels as well as other strategic missile sites around

23
00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:35,440
Speaker 1: the country. Iran's response has been, I guess, in my

24
00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:39,240
Speaker 1: mind pretty predictable, but apparently other people didn't predict this.

25
00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:44,160
Speaker 1: But there's been massive waves of missile strikes all throughout

26
00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:49,600
Speaker 1: the region, including at Israel, US air bases in Iraq,

27
00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:56,120
Speaker 1: Bahran and Kuwait, and Qatar's ros Lafon LNG refinery and

28
00:01:56,240 --> 00:02:00,200
Speaker 1: Saudi and UAE energy sites have also been hit as well.

29
00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:03,720
Speaker 1: Terms of casualties, rough estimates and Iran are about forty

30
00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:11,720
Speaker 1: eight hundred military kias, nineteen US kias, thirteen combat and

31
00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:18,520
Speaker 1: six aircraft have been taken out. Iranian civilian casualties Some

32
00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:22,200
Speaker 1: are saying it's around fourteen hundred with about eighteen and

33
00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:26,600
Speaker 1: a half thousand injured. There's a new Supreme Leader that's

34
00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:33,640
Speaker 1: been placed, and that's moy Moyitoba Kahamani Khamane, who's the

35
00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:39,600
Speaker 1: son and the IRGC is dedicated as its loyalty to them.

36
00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:43,239
Speaker 1: The IRGC is also claiming that most of their weapons

37
00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:47,160
Speaker 1: caches are still intact and that they've only been getting

38
00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:49,880
Speaker 1: rid of the old missiles and that they still have

39
00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:55,000
Speaker 1: predominantly all their new technology waiting to deploy, most especially

40
00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:59,360
Speaker 1: all their drones, the massive stockpile of drones they've had.

41
00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:04,560
Speaker 1: On a side note, regionally, the leban nine war has

42
00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:09,040
Speaker 1: been reignited, and some people are saying eight hundred and

43
00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:13,520
Speaker 1: fifty people have been killed Lebanese with a million displays,

44
00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,680
Speaker 1: and that there's also been strikes on some other major

45
00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:22,040
Speaker 1: civilian infrastructure, including the Dubai Airport, which is one of

46
00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:24,720
Speaker 1: the most busy airports in the world.

47
00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:26,600
Speaker 2: All Right, so one of the.

48
00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:31,120
Speaker 1: Things that is being heavily contested debated. Obviously, last week,

49
00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:37,120
Speaker 1: the director of the Counter National counter Terrorism Center, Joe Kent,

50
00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:43,280
Speaker 1: former Green Beret Tier one covert SMU unit as well

51
00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:48,400
Speaker 1: as a Special Activities Division Ground Branch member for twenty

52
00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:57,920
Speaker 1: five plus years, basically resigned, suggesting alleging that Israel is

53
00:03:58,080 --> 00:04:03,000
Speaker 1: basically in control of making strategic decisions within the war

54
00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:03,520
Speaker 1: and Iran.

55
00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:05,160
Speaker 2: And what he says is.

56
00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:08,360
Speaker 1: That this has been proven several times over by statements

57
00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:12,680
Speaker 1: that Mark Rubio, the Johnson Speaker of the House as

58
00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:16,040
Speaker 1: well as Trump has said. And then Tulci Gabbert was

59
00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:23,840
Speaker 1: on the Hill last Thursday suggesting that there is no

60
00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:27,359
Speaker 1: imminent threat from my rant. Now, a lot of people

61
00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:30,120
Speaker 1: have different opinions of that. Radcliffe, the head of the CIA,

62
00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:33,719
Speaker 1: immediately said afterwards, no, there is an imminent threat, and

63
00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:35,919
Speaker 1: then Tulsi actually came back and said, listen, it's up

64
00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:38,040
Speaker 1: to the President of the United States to decide.

65
00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:39,039
Speaker 2: What's imminent in what's not.

66
00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:44,760
Speaker 1: So one of the things that now we're getting to

67
00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:46,760
Speaker 1: is a point of.

68
00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:50,680
Speaker 2: Is it realistic to begin a groundwar.

69
00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:55,359
Speaker 1: Now we've seen Trump launched a MEEW of about forty

70
00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:58,720
Speaker 1: five hundred marines. Over a couple of weeks ago, we

71
00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:04,520
Speaker 1: saw another large contingency large I mean for marines, you know,

72
00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:09,200
Speaker 1: two thousand is a lot that was just recently sent over.

73
00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:12,320
Speaker 1: We all also saw an aircraft carrier was removed from

74
00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:16,760
Speaker 1: the area because they had a massive fire outbreak, which

75
00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:21,479
Speaker 1: basically left about two hundred sailors without birthing and some

76
00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:25,160
Speaker 1: other things. We also did see the first F thirty

77
00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:29,320
Speaker 1: five to ever get shot down on the border of

78
00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:33,440
Speaker 1: Iraq Iran. We're still waiting to get some more information

79
00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:36,840
Speaker 1: about that as well too. Okay, so what does it

80
00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:42,520
Speaker 1: mean to invade Iran in order to really have an

81
00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:45,799
Speaker 1: impact on the so called regime change war?

82
00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:47,120
Speaker 2: Now?

83
00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:50,920
Speaker 1: As I led into this, I'm trying to maintain kind

84
00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:54,760
Speaker 1: of a historical perspective on this, and so the historical

85
00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:58,880
Speaker 1: perspectives I wanted to really root myself in was the

86
00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:04,120
Speaker 1: First Gulf War UH and then Iraq Afghanistan, with Iraq

87
00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:09,919
Speaker 1: Afghanistan being the most relevant way to analyze potential UH,

88
00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:16,200
Speaker 1: numbers of troops, costs, UH, the impact of forces on

89
00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:19,200
Speaker 1: the ground, the whole the whole gamble that you have

90
00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:23,320
Speaker 1: to analyze when you're drawing up war plans for an

91
00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:27,080
Speaker 1: operation of this magnitude in size, and just so you know,

92
00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:35,719
Speaker 1: most military experts and think tanks and military historians are

93
00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:42,600
Speaker 1: suggesting this would be the single greatest requirement on resources,

94
00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:48,880
Speaker 1: military and civilian resources that we've seen since World War Two,

95
00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:50,000
Speaker 1: even more so.

96
00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:52,440
Speaker 2: Than than Vietnam.

97
00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:55,240
Speaker 1: So I just wanted to give you a little bit

98
00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:58,960
Speaker 1: of analysis of what we've seen in the past to

99
00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:03,200
Speaker 1: get throw and I'm gonna break down militarily, economically, and

100
00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:06,760
Speaker 1: then politically. So let's start all right now. Desert Storm

101
00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:12,680
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety one, there were six hundred and ninety seven

102
00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:17,600
Speaker 1: thousand US troops seven hundred and fifty thousand total coalition

103
00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:23,560
Speaker 1: from thirty four different nations, the largest US deployment since Vietnam.

104
00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:27,600
Speaker 1: All Right, Iraq enemy forces totaled roughly about six hundred

105
00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:30,480
Speaker 1: thousand Iraqi military and at the time they were the

106
00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,320
Speaker 1: fourth largest army in the world in the terms of

107
00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:36,720
Speaker 1: their conventional force. Now it opened, there was a five

108
00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:40,000
Speaker 1: week air campaign, one thousand sorties a day.

109
00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:45,640
Speaker 2: Then there was one hundred hour ground war. Now I

110
00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:47,640
Speaker 2: remember this, man, I was up at.

111
00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:52,080
Speaker 1: Boarding school going through and I remember watching straight for

112
00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:56,960
Speaker 1: twenty four hours CNN at the time, thinking, oh boy,

113
00:07:57,080 --> 00:07:59,280
Speaker 1: this is it. This is where I'm gonna get drafted.

114
00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:01,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go to war, you know, the whole thing.

115
00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:05,280
Speaker 1: And man, it was. It was an interesting time for me,

116
00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:08,680
Speaker 1: as I'm sure it's very interesting for a lot of

117
00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:12,120
Speaker 1: young men that are out there trying to figure out

118
00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:14,920
Speaker 1: is this the time to enlist? Is this the time

119
00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:18,720
Speaker 1: to join? Is this to time? Is this a righteous war?

120
00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:21,240
Speaker 1: Is this something we could do? Obviously, when you do

121
00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:24,760
Speaker 1: have a guy like Joe Kent resign the way he did,

122
00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:28,880
Speaker 1: saying that he does not believe that we should go

123
00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:32,520
Speaker 1: any farther with this, and that our tactical or military

124
00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:36,040
Speaker 1: strategic initiatives are are.

125
00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:37,720
Speaker 2: Are being led by Israel.

126
00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:43,080
Speaker 1: Now, obviously that has been refuted vigorously from the top down,

127
00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:49,080
Speaker 1: from Pete Hagseeth to Donald Trump, President Trump, to Marco Rubio.

128
00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:51,920
Speaker 1: Everybody out there is basically saying, you know what, this

129
00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:54,200
Speaker 1: guy doesn't know what he's talking about. He hasn't been

130
00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:58,079
Speaker 1: involved in a lot of the military planning that's been

131
00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:00,800
Speaker 1: taking place in the build up to it. So uh,

132
00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:03,560
Speaker 1: he's he's not accurate with his assessments.

133
00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:07,840
Speaker 2: So now here was some kickers.

134
00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:09,319
Speaker 1: And this is something I want you to start thinking

135
00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:12,239
Speaker 1: about because in my mind, this is the greatest strategic

136
00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:17,319
Speaker 1: uh thing that we have to evaluate, which is basically terrain,

137
00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:22,360
Speaker 1: right waging war all the way back to sun Zou

138
00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:25,839
Speaker 1: When you go back and you read those writings, one

139
00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:29,880
Speaker 1: of the most substantial aspects of waging any kind of

140
00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:33,640
Speaker 1: war is where you're fighting, if your ground troop, where

141
00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:35,839
Speaker 1: you're fighting, what does the terrain look like, what does

142
00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:36,800
Speaker 1: the weather look like?

143
00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:38,120
Speaker 2: What's the heat?

144
00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:44,760
Speaker 1: Right? What's the freezing temperatures? You know, is there supply

145
00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:48,720
Speaker 1: routes that are going to be accessible in these features? Uh?

146
00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:50,800
Speaker 2: Is it going to require airlifts?

147
00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:56,120
Speaker 1: There are there choke points of ingress and egress, Uh,

148
00:09:56,240 --> 00:09:58,800
Speaker 1: you know, what are the what does urban warfare look

149
00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:01,400
Speaker 1: like in these situations? And so you know, when you

150
00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:05,120
Speaker 1: start to break down a tactical perspective of waging a

151
00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:08,200
Speaker 1: ground camping, even if you're a small unit like I

152
00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:11,760
Speaker 1: used to be a part of, you still evaluate every

153
00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:15,760
Speaker 1: single piece of detail from you know, if you're doing

154
00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:18,160
Speaker 1: a recon on a compound, you.

155
00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:20,440
Speaker 2: Know, what are the doors made of? What are the hinges?

156
00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:21,640
Speaker 2: Does it open end? Does it out?

157
00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:24,000
Speaker 1: How many vehicles do are any of the vehicles armored?

158
00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:26,520
Speaker 1: How many personnel are or what type of weapons systems

159
00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:28,160
Speaker 1: they have? How many women are on site? How many

160
00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:30,520
Speaker 1: children are on site? Do they have air cover, they

161
00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:33,880
Speaker 1: have antennas? Do they have comms? Like it's everything that

162
00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:35,839
Speaker 1: you can think of. Where are we going to assault from?

163
00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:38,280
Speaker 1: Is it a helo born? And if you look at

164
00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:42,760
Speaker 1: our past right and the seal teams, we suffered the

165
00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:46,280
Speaker 1: two single biggest loss in one day in both Iraq

166
00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:50,880
Speaker 1: and Afghanistan with Operation Red Wings and the helicopters getting

167
00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:56,600
Speaker 1: shot at Skuy, including the recon team that the three

168
00:10:56,679 --> 00:10:59,240
Speaker 1: out of four guys died. And then also if you

169
00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:02,440
Speaker 1: look at Extortion seventeen, where we lost, you know, twenty

170
00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:06,800
Speaker 1: two Seal Team six members as well as aircrew and

171
00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:09,240
Speaker 1: some Afghans on that as well too, So you know,

172
00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:13,079
Speaker 1: and that was in what mountainous terrain where a lot

173
00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:15,600
Speaker 1: of that took place, and we actually had one more

174
00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:18,440
Speaker 1: helicopter that we lost a life in the beginning of

175
00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:21,760
Speaker 1: the Afghan War. Neil Roberts. They were going into a

176
00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:26,280
Speaker 1: very defended position where there was an anti aircraft gun

177
00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:28,560
Speaker 1: at during Torbora and they said, you know, some people

178
00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:30,040
Speaker 1: were like, don't go in there, and they're like, no,

179
00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:33,840
Speaker 1: we got to take out this this defensive position and

180
00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:37,600
Speaker 1: shot an RPG. He fell out, ended up getting killed.

181
00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:41,240
Speaker 1: But also we lost what perhaps was one of the

182
00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:45,400
Speaker 1: most impressive Metal of Honor recipient actions ever, which was

183
00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:49,320
Speaker 1: Chapman Seal. Another Seal also received the Medal of Honor

184
00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:53,280
Speaker 1: during that as well too. So when you think about Iran,

185
00:11:53,679 --> 00:11:56,360
Speaker 1: what I want you to do is I want you

186
00:11:56,400 --> 00:11:58,959
Speaker 1: to think about a map of Iran and maybe Jordan.

187
00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:01,760
Speaker 2: You could pull up a topographical map.

188
00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:04,760
Speaker 1: Lie start thinking about this, right, all right, So when

189
00:12:04,760 --> 00:12:10,320
Speaker 1: you think about Iraq, right, mostly flat terrain, especially from

190
00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:15,439
Speaker 1: Kuwait all the way into Baghdad, ideal for armor vehicles.

191
00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:17,480
Speaker 1: I mean, how that's when we first used the desert

192
00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:22,800
Speaker 1: patrol vehicles. Our guys, did you know, really positive terrain

193
00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:24,960
Speaker 1: for massive troop movement?

194
00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:27,240
Speaker 2: All right, you got that. I want to flash it

195
00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:28,160
Speaker 2: up for me, a coik.

196
00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:31,240
Speaker 1: I just want to give them a reference point for

197
00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:37,400
Speaker 1: how the mountain terrain looks in Iran. And we'll reference

198
00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:39,480
Speaker 1: that again here, I said, Okay, you can take it

199
00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:43,280
Speaker 1: down now, all right. So what I want you to

200
00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:47,480
Speaker 1: start to think about too, is is populations. Because in

201
00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:50,880
Speaker 1: Iraq at that time, you know it was it was

202
00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:55,280
Speaker 1: four hundred and thirty seven thousand square kilometers. There was

203
00:12:55,320 --> 00:13:01,400
Speaker 1: an eighteen million population right now. During that war, we

204
00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:04,480
Speaker 1: had Kia American kias of two hundred and ninety nine

205
00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:09,760
Speaker 1: and the cost of that was sixty one billion dollars. Okay,

206
00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:13,560
Speaker 1: very short war in out all right. It was one

207
00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:17,120
Speaker 1: of the things that actually, George Bush Senior said, we

208
00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:24,320
Speaker 1: broke the mental hurdle of what the Vietnam War had

209
00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:28,559
Speaker 1: done to the consciousness of America, that regained our prowess

210
00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:33,640
Speaker 1: as a superpower militarily, that we can be quick decided

211
00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:42,319
Speaker 1: and show overwhelming a power of might and military and technology,

212
00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:46,080
Speaker 1: right and that's what it was. Now, let's move to

213
00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:49,440
Speaker 1: Iraq in two thousand and three, right, we had an

214
00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:52,840
Speaker 1: initial invasion force of one hundred and seventy thousand people.

215
00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:55,959
Speaker 1: Have several buddies that were part of that, some really

216
00:13:56,000 --> 00:14:00,640
Speaker 1: interesting ops during that time. Now, this coal is initially

217
00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:03,960
Speaker 1: was US in the UK, and it was a very

218
00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:08,199
Speaker 1: it was a much smaller coalition. Why because many people

219
00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:11,680
Speaker 1: had already bought into the Coalition of Afghanistan, which had

220
00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:15,200
Speaker 1: taken place beginning in October of two thousand and one,

221
00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:18,800
Speaker 1: and a lot of people were saying, you know what,

222
00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:22,560
Speaker 1: we don't buy the intelligence your spout member, Colin Powell,

223
00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:26,840
Speaker 1: this is a slam dunk weapons of mass destruction, you know,

224
00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:31,760
Speaker 1: very similar intelligence collection during that war, the Iraq War

225
00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:36,920
Speaker 1: as what we're seeing now. And so it really was,

226
00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:41,680
Speaker 1: you know, we during the Iraq we didn't have enough

227
00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:44,880
Speaker 1: for occupation, but we still went for Now the enemy

228
00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:48,720
Speaker 1: forces during that time three hundred and seventy five thousand

229
00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:53,280
Speaker 1: Iraqi military and which had been dramatically weakened by twelve

230
00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:56,800
Speaker 1: years of sanctions, and the Republican Guard of about eighty

231
00:14:56,920 --> 00:15:03,160
Speaker 1: thousand people. Now, everybody remembers their TV the shock in Awe, right,

232
00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:08,440
Speaker 1: and everybody's like, oh my god. And you know, last summer,

233
00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:11,960
Speaker 1: we saw pretty substantial shock in Awe.

234
00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:13,760
Speaker 2: At the ending of the Twelve Day War.

235
00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:18,200
Speaker 1: We saw this thirty two aircraft you know, bunker busting,

236
00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:24,000
Speaker 1: Jadam dropping like assault on the nuclear and everybody's like damn.

237
00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:26,800
Speaker 1: And then you combine that with what happened in Venezuela

238
00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:28,600
Speaker 1: and I think people had a little bit of that

239
00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:32,040
Speaker 1: shock and al vibe going in them again, right, where

240
00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:36,200
Speaker 1: nobody's gonna beat us down, like we're running the tables.

241
00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:36,560
Speaker 2: Now.

242
00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:40,600
Speaker 1: Meanwhile, let's just ignore everything that we saw in Ukraine

243
00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:42,640
Speaker 1: and Russia over the last few years. I'm not gonna

244
00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:47,160
Speaker 1: pay attention to that, that stalemate of probably.

245
00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:49,320
Speaker 2: One point five one, you know, one point.

246
00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:53,360
Speaker 1: Seven million men grinding it out in drone trench warfare.

247
00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:55,320
Speaker 2: Not gonna look at any of that. Nope, nope, nope,

248
00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:57,120
Speaker 2: I want to look at our shock in all.

249
00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:05,200
Speaker 1: Okay, So again, the terrain of Iraq was was really

250
00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:08,760
Speaker 1: in our behalf. I mean, when you think about jets

251
00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:12,680
Speaker 1: and helicopters flying over massive ground troops rolling in tanks

252
00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:16,000
Speaker 1: and rolling in humvees, and you know, all these vehicles

253
00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:19,600
Speaker 1: and helicopters and all this stuff like it's it's about perfect.

254
00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:21,400
Speaker 1: One of the worst things that you know would face

255
00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:24,960
Speaker 1: during those times was sandstorms, right, really beat up on

256
00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:27,200
Speaker 1: helicopters and other aircraft.

257
00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:28,800
Speaker 2: Hew impedes visualization.

258
00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:33,080
Speaker 1: Obviously, the technology we had then was a great drone technology. Now,

259
00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:36,920
Speaker 1: obviously we were in a whole new battle space in

260
00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:41,960
Speaker 1: terms of unmanned aerial drones, you know, vehicle drones, every

261
00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:44,920
Speaker 1: kind of drone you can think of, and as well

262
00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:47,800
Speaker 1: as the aircraft that we have from technology, our our

263
00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:52,240
Speaker 1: satellite systems, you know, being able to you know, watch

264
00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:55,520
Speaker 1: a guy picking his nose from you know, a mile

265
00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:58,520
Speaker 1: up in the air, right, you know, that's the kind

266
00:16:58,560 --> 00:16:59,560
Speaker 1: of technology we do have.

267
00:16:59,600 --> 00:16:59,640
Speaker 3: No.

268
00:16:59,800 --> 00:17:01,320
Speaker 2: But again, going back to this.

269
00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:07,359
Speaker 1: So obviously, you know there was once we got through

270
00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:12,960
Speaker 1: we kind of toppled Saddam's group pretty pretty rapidly. I

271
00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:15,840
Speaker 1: remember the Saddams like second in command.

272
00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:18,840
Speaker 2: No, we're winning the war. Meanwhile, there's like a tank

273
00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:19,679
Speaker 2: behind him.

274
00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:23,399
Speaker 1: Rolling through the city, completely lying on television.

275
00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:27,880
Speaker 2: Meanwhile, you know, Sada Musseim nowhere to be found.

276
00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:31,840
Speaker 1: He found his little hole right all right, Now here's

277
00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:34,720
Speaker 1: some other things right in the country again, as I said,

278
00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:39,040
Speaker 1: three and four hundred and thirty seven thousand kilometers square

279
00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:46,240
Speaker 1: kilometers twenty five million population. Now, Kia's American KIAS through

280
00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:50,840
Speaker 1: twenty eleven was four thousand, four hundred and thirty one.

281
00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:56,920
Speaker 1: And remember, primarily after four moving into four and five,

282
00:17:57,440 --> 00:18:01,840
Speaker 1: we were fighting an insurgency and now not necessarily the

283
00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:04,720
Speaker 1: Iraqi military, although there are many of those people just

284
00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:07,240
Speaker 1: took off the uniform and became a part of the insurgency.

285
00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:11,200
Speaker 1: But that insurgency was led by al Kaite Iraq right

286
00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:15,639
Speaker 1: in the Sunni triangle. And then there was Eastern with

287
00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:20,679
Speaker 1: mccada Alsader that was being supported by Iranian proxies to

288
00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:21,520
Speaker 1: fight against us.

289
00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:23,639
Speaker 2: And that's something I want you to think about.

290
00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:27,760
Speaker 1: Right when we went in before that, it was soon

291
00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:33,479
Speaker 1: he's fighting Bathists, fighting Shia's fighting whatever. Right, Iraq Iran

292
00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:35,880
Speaker 1: war back in the day, them fighting each other, which

293
00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,520
Speaker 1: was a stalemate war that we funded both sides by

294
00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:43,800
Speaker 1: the way for eight years, right, Okay, ground to a halt,

295
00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:45,280
Speaker 1: just beating the snot out.

296
00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:45,640
Speaker 2: Of each other.

297
00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:50,600
Speaker 1: Okay, want you to really think about these details, all right,

298
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:56,840
Speaker 1: So total cost of the Iraq War, what do you think, George,

299
00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:58,119
Speaker 1: are you going to take a shot at what that

300
00:18:58,560 --> 00:18:59,400
Speaker 1: number was that I.

301
00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:06,640
Speaker 3: Got here, total costs. I want to say two trillion, one.

302
00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:11,600
Speaker 2: Point nine trillion. Good job, But there we go, JORDI,

303
00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:13,200
Speaker 2: nicely done, all right.

304
00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:18,000
Speaker 1: Afghanistan, right, two thousand and one one fat We invaded

305
00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:21,679
Speaker 1: right in October September eleventh, went in. I think it

306
00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:24,760
Speaker 1: was like October twenty something, October thirty something. I remember

307
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:27,800
Speaker 1: buddies of mine, that Red team like free falls, hey

308
00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:30,960
Speaker 1: ho and jumping in right. They were driving cars I

309
00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:34,760
Speaker 1: in ground branch and then what the triple nickel oda

310
00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:38,399
Speaker 1: those guys up in the north riding horses in man like,

311
00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,040
Speaker 1: that's what That's what we.

312
00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:41,200
Speaker 2: Did in Afghanistan.

313
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:44,879
Speaker 1: Why because the terrain was insane up north and the

314
00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:48,879
Speaker 1: northern Hindu Kush coming in from Uzbekistan right, you had

315
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,320
Speaker 1: to climb over the Hindukush to get down into the

316
00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:53,879
Speaker 1: other side of Bogram. Right, you have the mountains on

317
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:57,080
Speaker 1: Pakistani border, and then you come down all the way

318
00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:00,359
Speaker 1: down and then you kind of the plateaus across western

319
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:05,160
Speaker 1: Afghanistan into Iran right, landlocked Iran right, and then down

320
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:08,560
Speaker 1: in the southeast corner where Mula Omar was in Cueta,

321
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,560
Speaker 1: you had the desert of death down there, so again,

322
00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:17,800
Speaker 1: insane terrain, insane difficult and again, I just I know

323
00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 1: I'm saying again a lot I've known, Kayla, but I

324
00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:24,639
Speaker 1: just want you to stop and think about Afghanistan.

325
00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:25,760
Speaker 2: Right.

326
00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:30,680
Speaker 1: There's a reason why people say Afghanistan is a place

327
00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:32,960
Speaker 1: where empires go to die.

328
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:38,760
Speaker 2: Right. Russian invaded it twice, lost both. Britain or England

329
00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:40,160
Speaker 2: invaded it twice.

330
00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:43,679
Speaker 1: Lost both. We went in lost that one. Now, I

331
00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:45,520
Speaker 1: got it. I know what you're gonna say, if you're

332
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:48,360
Speaker 1: out there, you're diehard patriot like I am, You're gonna say,

333
00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:54,200
Speaker 1: rut man, rut buddy. Listen, listen. We won all the battles.

334
00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:57,399
Speaker 1: We just couldn't. We just weren't allowed to win the war.

335
00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:00,639
Speaker 1: And I agree with you, man, I was there. I

336
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:04,600
Speaker 1: agree with you. But what the fuck does that get us,

337
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:08,000
Speaker 1: That's all I'm saying, man, Like, what is the strategic

338
00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:09,359
Speaker 1: win you're talking about?

339
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:09,640
Speaker 2: Then?

340
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:13,680
Speaker 1: Yes, we became the most elite fighters on the planet

341
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:19,439
Speaker 1: in urban for Iraq and land and mountain terrain in Afghanistan,

342
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:25,560
Speaker 1: But technology is all but erased a lot of what

343
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:28,320
Speaker 1: we thought we were the best at anymore, because now

344
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,720
Speaker 1: you can buy a five hundred dollars drone, put a

345
00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:35,919
Speaker 1: hand grenade on it or claymore, fly it over twenty

346
00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:38,280
Speaker 1: five dudes and drop it in their thing in the

347
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:42,280
Speaker 1: middle of the night. Because you've got infrared or flears

348
00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:48,960
Speaker 1: or any different type of ability for low grade technology

349
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:54,080
Speaker 1: that everybody has access, most especially Iran. Why because they

350
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 1: are partners with Russia and China, who, by the way,

351
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:03,399
Speaker 1: Russia has just become what battle hardened over the last

352
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,199
Speaker 1: four or five years in Ukraine. So now they have

353
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 1: the technology up to speed, the weapons production, the whole

354
00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:12,400
Speaker 1: thing dialed in. And then you also have Chinese ability

355
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:15,159
Speaker 1: with satellite support, intelligence support, all that.

356
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,439
Speaker 2: So again, Iraq didn't have any of that.

357
00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:24,400
Speaker 1: Afghanistan didn't have any of that stuff, all right, all right, now,

358
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 1: Afghanistan six hundred and fifty two thousand square kilometers, twenty

359
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:35,320
Speaker 1: five million people. In our conflict, we had us Kia's

360
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 1: two thy four hundred and sixty one, a bunch of

361
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:42,479
Speaker 1: my friends and a cost. Jordy, what do you think

362
00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 1: the cost in Afghanistan was, Buddy.

363
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 3: I'm going to go lower than Iraq. I'm gonna say

364
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 3: only only one trillion.

365
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:54,879
Speaker 1: Nope, that'd be two point three trillion dollars. I couldn't

366
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 1: be more wrong, more wrong. And guess what, after twenty

367
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:00,880
Speaker 1: years in a fight there ended up giving it back

368
00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 1: to the Talban, left them eighty six billion dollars. And

369
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 1: now there are roughly twenty to twenty three thousand terrorists,

370
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,960
Speaker 1: you know, different organizations and whole list. Go check out

371
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 1: Sarah Adams to get the whole list of who's training there, right.

372
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 1: And by the way, they do say that some of

373
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:22,879
Speaker 1: the people that perpetrated October seventh in Israel had trained

374
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 1: to receive training from people or trained in Afghanistan, which

375
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:27,640
Speaker 1: by the way, is.

376
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,879
Speaker 2: Bordered right next to where Iran.

377
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:34,199
Speaker 1: And also if you go to the other side Iran,

378
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:38,879
Speaker 1: what's that border too, right, Iraq and Iraq is bordered

379
00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 1: to Syria. And who's in charge of Syria now? The

380
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 1: former head of al Qaida in Iraq? And guess who's

381
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:51,119
Speaker 1: in charge of Iran now? All of the Iranian proxies

382
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:55,640
Speaker 1: from eastern Iran that came in through Marktada Alsardo, those

383
00:23:55,640 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 1: who networks, now they're basically they've taken over Iraq. Yeah right,

384
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 1: I'm just trying to map out the strategic layout of

385
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 1: that region and what we would face.

386
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:14,440
Speaker 2: Okay, all right, let's talk about.

387
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,640
Speaker 1: We already went through. Let's talk all right, here we go.

388
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 1: Let's talk about just some strategic concepts to get your

389
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 1: mind thinking again. All right, Uh, pull up that map

390
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 1: of I Ran again for me.

391
00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:25,919
Speaker 2: Would you?

392
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 1: I want to just keep doing this for people to

393
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:32,919
Speaker 1: get this visualization? All right now if you if you

394
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:36,120
Speaker 1: can't identify where I Ran is on the map, then

395
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 1: you need work.

396
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 2: All right, So pretty unbelievable place.

397
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, bring up that one that has kind of the

398
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 1: color structure and relief right there.

399
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 2: That's a good one to start with.

400
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:53,640
Speaker 1: So if you look at that, obviously, if you look

401
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:58,159
Speaker 1: at the topographical relief, what you're looking for is variations

402
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:02,120
Speaker 1: in terms of terrain, because the steeper the terrain, the

403
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:03,359
Speaker 1: harder it is to fight.

404
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 2: Right.

405
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:07,120
Speaker 1: Uh, And then you have to because what are you doing.

406
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 1: You're gonna have to invade. So there'll be invasion points, right,

407
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 1: So there will be a water born invasion from our

408
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 1: aircraft carriers of offshore right maybe landing in We'll have

409
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 1: helicopter landing water born invasions maybe like D Day and

410
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 1: stuff back in the day. Maybe through the CASPI and

411
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:32,200
Speaker 1: c up top. We do have relationship with Azerbaijan and

412
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 1: some of those other countries, maybe a water born from

413
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:41,120
Speaker 1: up north. But essentially what you need is you need

414
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:44,919
Speaker 1: to be able to position your forces in a place

415
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 1: that can a mass scale it up like we did

416
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 1: in Kuwait, right, or we did in Uzbekistan. We certainly

417
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,960
Speaker 1: didn't a massim in Pakistan for Afghanistan. We did the

418
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 1: massim in Iran for anything, right, what we do We

419
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 1: capped Bagram Airfield and then we started, you know, landing

420
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:08,959
Speaker 1: Sea seventeen's, C five's, Sea one thirties and just just

421
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:16,640
Speaker 1: tons of air supply planes with materials because guess what

422
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:20,040
Speaker 1: your soldiers need to eat. They need to drink water,

423
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 1: they need more bullets, they need more kit, they need

424
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:26,920
Speaker 1: to take rest, they need equipment that they can drive

425
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:32,159
Speaker 1: around through terrain. Right, it's a logistic thing. So you

426
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 1: have to think of it now while you're looking at

427
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 1: that map right there, I want you to think, right,

428
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 1: I ran in particular Tehran. There are these massive massive

429
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:46,160
Speaker 1: mountain change. There's the Zagros Mountains and the Aubars Mountains,

430
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:51,680
Speaker 1: which is basically like a natural fortress. And by the way,

431
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 1: I ran as four times the size of Iraq. There's

432
00:26:56,680 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 1: a fifteen hundred kilometer mountain wall.

433
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 2: On the western approach, right.

434
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 1: That just right there, and the country is one point

435
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:12,879
Speaker 1: sixty five million square kilometers with the population and the

436
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:18,160
Speaker 1: high eighty low ninety millions, right, that's sixty eight percent

437
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 1: larger than Iraq and Afghanistan combined, right, combined with forty

438
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 1: percent more people. And I also want you to think that, remember,

439
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 1: Iraq had a big dispersion of people. You had Sundi

440
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 1: Shii Bathists, right Afghanistan, you had the Northern Alliance, the

441
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 1: Pastuan people. Then you had the kind of the Sudi

442
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 1: radicals that had been flown in the form of Muhajhaden.

443
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 1: And then you had all these tribal regions spread out

444
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:55,440
Speaker 1: as well too that were basically independent governor governments, right

445
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 1: all right, and Iran, these people are pretty unified.

446
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 2: Now.

447
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 1: Granted we've seen uprisings, we've seen people in the streets,

448
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:05,399
Speaker 1: the whole thing. But I don't want you to go

449
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 1: too far overboard with your valuation of that potentiality.

450
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:11,359
Speaker 2: Like we're gonna, you know.

451
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:15,840
Speaker 1: Sneak through these mountain passes, which are are pretty radical

452
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:17,399
Speaker 1: in terms of our heights, and I'll get to that

453
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 1: in a bit of in what it might look like now.

454
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 2: So so far in.

455
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 1: The war and I ran, we have you know, nineteen

456
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 1: USA US members that have been KIA. We've spent roughly

457
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 1: what one hundred and twenty billion dollars or something like that,

458
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:36,400
Speaker 1: and climbing each day five to seven billion a day.

459
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 1: Now the rough estimated people are throwing around right there,

460
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 1: low end one point five trillion, high end five trillion,

461
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 1: And that's just in these immediate futures right now. The

462
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 1: key number this is what you got to think about,

463
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 1: because you got to think about your grandson, your granddaughter

464
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 1: now right because they're involving women in combat operations and

465
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 1: they're going to need every single one of them. We

466
00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 1: got roughly what maybe one point three million people in

467
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:11,959
Speaker 1: our military right now across all the branches, and then

468
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 1: who knows, with contractors, you could flex certainly, but right

469
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 1: now you only have about one point three and then

470
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 1: you have to think about the next thing. Right you

471
00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 1: have to think about where they're stationed. How long does

472
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 1: it take to mobilize the sizable force you would need

473
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 1: to enter into Iran and sweep through village to village,

474
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 1: city to city, right region to region to capture the

475
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 1: strategic right initiatives in all over the country. And how

476
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 1: would you do that? And granted they've already had these plans,

477
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 1: they've had these plans for years and years and years

478
00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 1: and years. All right, So rough estimates, estimations, it's somewhere

479
00:29:55,360 --> 00:30:00,040
Speaker 1: between five hundred to one million.

480
00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 2: Truth hoops for the invasion.

481
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 1: All right, Now, let's talk about I'm gonna put this

482
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 1: into a frame of reference for you. So during the

483
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 1: g WAT, probably you know, SOCOM Special Operations Command flex

484
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 1: to somewhere between seventy to eighty thousand personnel right with,

485
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 1: you know, and you think, oh, you know, we've got

486
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 1: all these Special Operations guys that are just killing it

487
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 1: right at a height during the g WAT and the teams,

488
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:34,960
Speaker 1: I think we had a maxed out somewhere around like

489
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 1: maxed out numbers somewhere around thirty six, thirty seven, thirty

490
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 1: eight hundred dudes. And not all those guys are operational

491
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:48,280
Speaker 1: right only at the teams in the platoons they're operational.

492
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 1: Everybody else's logistics or support or admin or whatever. So

493
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 1: of the set, let's call SOCOM seventy thousand, seventy five

494
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 1: thousand personnel, right, and they just did a big socom brief.

495
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 1: You can go just go into X and type in

496
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 1: so Calm Congressional Brief, and that you can hear all

497
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 1: the seal, admiral and some generals talk about the current

498
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 1: state of so calm.

499
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 2: In their operational capabilities.

500
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 1: Right, You got to listen closely to their answers because

501
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 1: there's always some military jargon they throw in there. All right,

502
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 1: So you've got the rough estimate five hundred thousand to

503
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:28,360
Speaker 1: a million you're gonna need with logistics to put these

504
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 1: people in there, and the contracting Jordy, we look up,

505
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 1: I didn't I didn't do this. When you look up

506
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 1: how many at the height of the g WAT in

507
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 1: both Iraq and Afghanistani, how many US contractors were employed?

508
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:42,280
Speaker 2: All right?

509
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 1: All right, so now let's take a look tactically at

510
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 1: the Iranian military presence, all right. So they have this

511
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 1: kind of dual structure, right. They have the Arteche, which

512
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 1: is the regular army. Rough estimates about three hundred and

513
00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 1: fifty thousand regular conventional forces, all right. Now, the IRGC

514
00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 1: is about one hundred and twenty five to one hundred

515
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 1: and ninety thousand, and these are your asymmetric, your operators,

516
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 1: if you will, right, who answer to the supreme Iotola.

517
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 1: All right, Now, the IRGC is not your typical military.

518
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 1: It's like I said, it's like they're soft unit. Right,

519
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 1: they're intelligence, they're in charge of their economics. They're ideological

520
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 1: enforcer of what the etolas want. Right, and they control

521
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 1: about thirty percent of Iran's economy.

522
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 2: What number did you get there for me, buddy? All right?

523
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 3: So the key numbers are in the Iraq peak, the

524
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:39,440
Speaker 3: DoD employed one hundred and fifty five eight hundred and

525
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 3: twenty six private contractors in Iraq, alongside one hundred and

526
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 3: fifty thousand IS troops. Afghanistan peak private security contractors alone

527
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:50,760
Speaker 3: peaked over twenty eight thousand. Total peaked around one hundred

528
00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 3: and seventeen thousand and twenty twelve combine you GYT total.

529
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 3: There's not a clean number, but you're talking between one

530
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 3: and two hundred thousand.

531
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 1: So let's triple that for Iran, right, trimple it. Trimple that,

532
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 1: and trust me, there's a lot of dudes that would

533
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 1: would throw their kit back on for sure. Uh. If

534
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 1: this reduced to a ground ground uh engagement as well.

535
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 1: But there's also a lot who wouldn't, by the way,

536
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 1: and that's I'll get to that politically here.

537
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:19,719
Speaker 2: All right.

538
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 1: Then you got the Kuds force, right, and this is

539
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 1: their elite troops.

540
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:25,000
Speaker 2: These are the guys that.

541
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:28,240
Speaker 1: Were making the e m P or the the e

542
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 1: FPS and the v bids and all the real technical

543
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 1: efficient explosive devices improvised explosive device that killed so many

544
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 1: American troops in Iraq and Afghanistan too, and out in

545
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 1: Garrat in that area as well. So you know, think

546
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 1: about these guys, and you know, these are the people

547
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 1: who train the Hesbla Hamas, the Iraqi PMF, the houthis

548
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 1: all right, and and these are the the those kind

549
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 1: of guerrilla force. These are your ground branch guys, your

550
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 1: special mission units who use local forces. So they'd go

551
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:11,279
Speaker 1: out into all these different regions in Iran and we

552
00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:13,800
Speaker 1: pull up how many different regions.

553
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:15,040
Speaker 2: Are there in Iran too as.

554
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:17,880
Speaker 1: Well, and they'll go in, they'll train the civilians in

555
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 1: there to wage what a counter insurgency warfare. Now if

556
00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 1: I say counterinsurgency, hopefully that's triggering your head back to

557
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:32,479
Speaker 1: two thousand and four when we had four contractors from

558
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 1: Blackwater gets stopped in Flujah, gunned up, had their bodies

559
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 1: taken out, mutilated, burned to death and hung from the

560
00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 1: bridge there, which kicked off the Battle of Fallujah and

561
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:46,840
Speaker 1: really launched.

562
00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, go for it.

563
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:52,400
Speaker 3: So Iran has thirty one provinces which are the primary

564
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:56,880
Speaker 3: administrative divisions. In twenty fourteen, those thirty one provinces were

565
00:34:56,880 --> 00:35:02,840
Speaker 3: grouped into five administrative regions. You've got is basically Northwest, Northwest,

566
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 3: south and East.

567
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 2: I'll show that on the screen, So there you go,

568
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:07,799
Speaker 2: and there you have.

569
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:10,640
Speaker 1: So each one of those will be decentralized and act

570
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 1: as its own military command center for the region. So

571
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 1: they have different regional protective defensive programs or tactics or

572
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:23,400
Speaker 1: systems in place for each region. And also each region

573
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:27,880
Speaker 1: has their fair share of drone production capability and drone

574
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:32,399
Speaker 1: reserves and missile reserves as well as explosives. Right, these

575
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:36,279
Speaker 1: IEDs or v bids are all these different ways to

576
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:39,279
Speaker 1: engage plus anything they're going to be fed through their

577
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:44,839
Speaker 1: rat lines through these different areas around. Remember, China also

578
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 1: owns Bogram Air Base now in Afghanistan, so they can

579
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:52,719
Speaker 1: fly stuff into Afghanistan and then either fly it or

580
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 1: truck it over to the border Harat or fly into

581
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 1: Herat because there's an airport and Rotte we built one

582
00:35:57,200 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 1: there too, and they can basically just funnel as much

583
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:01,719
Speaker 1: as they want.

584
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 2: Into support these regions.

585
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:07,080
Speaker 1: Now, obviously we'll set up you know, defensive or try

586
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:10,480
Speaker 1: to interrupt those supply routes. We'll do overflights and you know,

587
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 1: and those types of restrictive supply will cut off those

588
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 1: supply chains as much as possible. But still, in any counterinsurgency,

589
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 1: rat lines become all over, especially if you have the

590
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:26,200
Speaker 1: will of the people that don't want to be conquered,

591
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:32,279
Speaker 1: they will participate in that. All right, Let's see we

592
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:39,239
Speaker 1: talked about Iraq Iran's missile defenses all this stuff. Obviously

593
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 1: we've destroyed much of their air force, almost probably all

594
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:44,720
Speaker 1: their air force, all their navy.

595
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:47,320
Speaker 2: But again, all you need.

596
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:50,360
Speaker 1: Is a fishing junk filled with five hundred pounds of

597
00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 1: C four and you've got the USS coal bombing that

598
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:58,280
Speaker 1: took place pre nine to eleven. All right, now, total

599
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:01,319
Speaker 1: active members something like six and ten thousand, maybe nine

600
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:06,279
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty with reserves. It it's pretty substantial. All right,

601
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:07,720
Speaker 1: let's talk geography again.

602
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 2: All right.

603
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:13,640
Speaker 1: The Zagros Mountains a fifteen hundred milli kilometer wall along

604
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:18,760
Speaker 1: the entire western border with peaks up to four thousand meters.

605
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:22,960
Speaker 1: All right, I don't know about anybody, Jordan, give me

606
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 1: that mathematician. He what's four thousand meters and feet?

607
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 2: Buddy?

608
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 3: Was that twelve thousand or so?

609
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:30,880
Speaker 1: Twelve thousand feet? You ever tried to operate at twelve

610
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:31,759
Speaker 1: thousand feet, Bud?

611
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 3: I don't think I've ever been twelve thousand feet if

612
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:36,239
Speaker 3: I was in an airplane.

613
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:37,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, tell, I'll tell you what.

614
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 1: It's not easy, right, Anything over eight thousand feet becomes

615
00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:46,319
Speaker 1: more difficult. Anything over nine you're starting to look at

616
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:50,360
Speaker 1: some type of potential SIPE or sudden induced pulmon area edema.

617
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 1: Got all kinds of problems at altitude, right. Plus, Mountain

618
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 1: warfare is its own unique training, right think Tenth Mountain Group,

619
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:02,880
Speaker 1: a very famous group back in World War Two, you know,

620
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 1: fighting in the Swiss Alps, the French Alps, the Italian Alps.

621
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:08,440
Speaker 1: I mean, just incredibly difficult warfare.

622
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 2: All right.

623
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:13,399
Speaker 1: Then you have the Alborz Mountains to protect Tehran from

624
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:16,840
Speaker 1: the north. There's a whole northern mountain change that you

625
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 1: have to get over to hit Tehran too, and these

626
00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 1: peaks go up to fifty six hundred meters were that's

627
00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 1: almost what sixteen thousand feet or something like that. I'm

628
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:32,759
Speaker 1: counting out, dude, which essentially creates a natural fortress.

629
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 2: Now again, shock and awe.

630
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 1: Everybody's gonna say, right, you just shocking all the hell

631
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:41,000
Speaker 1: out of the city and flatten the city. And then

632
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:44,160
Speaker 1: what do you do? You enrage populations, you whatever? You know,

633
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:46,720
Speaker 1: now you got this counter insurgency nightmare.

634
00:38:46,320 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 2: All right.

635
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 1: You know, there's also there's two big deserts in Iran

636
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:52,640
Speaker 1: that that cause issues. If you go back and you

637
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 1: think about Desert Eager Desert Claw, which was the failed

638
00:38:57,360 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 1: rescue tempt from Delta for the Iran hostage crisis.

639
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 2: They were out in the desert. They had a helicopter hit.

640
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:06,360
Speaker 1: A refueling thing and it blew up and some people

641
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:09,480
Speaker 1: died and they had to cancel that rescue, the hostage rescue.

642
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 1: So those deserts again, those you know, Jeordie will show

643
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 1: you some pictures in the desert. It's hard to operate

644
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 1: out in the open in the desert, for sure, So again,

645
00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:25,800
Speaker 1: you know the bottom line is this, I think these

646
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:28,880
Speaker 1: these estimates, and you know I tried to search like

647
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 1: Rand Group, Ceesis and some other you know think tanks

648
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 1: in terms of my analysis and where I was pulling from.

649
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 1: But the rough estimate they believe or they're saying is

650
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:42,760
Speaker 1: about five hundred thousand to a million US ground troops.

651
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:48,760
Speaker 1: That means a draft. There's no fsands butts. That means

652
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 1: a draft. If you get up to a million, that

653
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 1: means a draft. And remember at its height in in Vietnam,

654
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:00,719
Speaker 1: I think we had something like six undred seven undred

655
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:04,480
Speaker 1: thousand people in Vietnam at one point, right, what was

656
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:09,360
Speaker 1: the max number of US personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan

657
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 1: in twenty eleven, Jordy, would you tell me that?

658
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:16,240
Speaker 2: Please? All right, now, here's the other thing.

659
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:21,239
Speaker 1: If you were not to do a draft, and you

660
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 1: pulled our troops from all over the world, right Germany,

661
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:33,080
Speaker 1: South Korea, Japan, Australia, Guam, everything, put everybody in theater,

662
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:37,279
Speaker 1: what happens to our capabilities to protect Taiwan or to

663
00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:41,960
Speaker 1: protect to support Ukraine? Because you ain't gonna be able

664
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:44,160
Speaker 1: to support Ukraine anymore if we go all in on

665
00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:46,200
Speaker 1: a war here, I'll tell you that right now. And

666
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 1: it doesn't seem like there's a lot of support you

667
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:49,719
Speaker 1: got that for us?

668
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 2: What is it? What was it? I do?

669
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:54,759
Speaker 3: So the peak in terms of personnel is actually two

670
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:58,279
Speaker 3: thousand and seven and two thousand and eight, so the

671
00:40:58,320 --> 00:41:02,200
Speaker 3: peak was about hundred and sixty eight thousand troops plus

672
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 3: roughly one hundred and fifty thousand contractors in Iraq in

673
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:08,600
Speaker 3: Iraq at the peak, yeah.

674
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:10,920
Speaker 1: At its peak, and that was way bigger than Afghanistan.

675
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 1: So all right, so just think again, numbers, Think about

676
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 1: numbers and logistics. Wars are won and lost by logistics.

677
00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:23,880
Speaker 1: It's a numbers game. It's always a numbers game. And

678
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:26,960
Speaker 1: if you don't believe me, just go back and read

679
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:33,240
Speaker 1: a freaking history book. Okay, it's there. It's all there

680
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 1: for you. So when you start to get into this like.

681
00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 2: But we're the US, they man, we.

682
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:43,799
Speaker 1: Can kick anybody's ass like and whole, right and whole,

683
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:49,120
Speaker 1: you have to think realistically and warfare is logistics, plain

684
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:56,320
Speaker 1: and simple, right, all right, So again, and then the

685
00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 1: last little please say, we we mass this face, this group,

686
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 1: we send them in. Then there's also all the other

687
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 1: regional players that could come to help them as well

688
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 1: too that are trained in counterinsurgency guerrilla warfare that could

689
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:15,360
Speaker 1: wreak havoc. You don't need a lot of fighters to

690
00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 1: wreak havoc against US personnel. There's time and time again

691
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 1: where you've seen it right, where you've seen it happen.

692
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:29,480
Speaker 1: And now with drone technology, it's it's, it's, it's it's

693
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 1: pretty pretty substantial.

694
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:32,879
Speaker 2: All right, Sorry for the interruption of the show.

695
00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:35,400
Speaker 1: I hope you're enjoying the content, but I wanted to

696
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:37,839
Speaker 1: really give a shout out to a new partner with us,

697
00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:42,360
Speaker 1: and that's Revival Nutrition. This is an incredible company that

698
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:47,680
Speaker 1: is providing the latest in technology for supplemental delivery.

699
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:48,560
Speaker 2: Now what do I mean?

700
00:42:48,680 --> 00:42:52,200
Speaker 1: Typically we get our supplements from Pillar powder, which by

701
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 1: the way, is pretty low on its bioavailability.

702
00:42:55,600 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 2: What does that mean?

703
00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 1: What is absorbed into your gut and into your system

704
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 1: with with pill and powder, you can lose up to

705
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:07,960
Speaker 1: fifty percent of the supplemental impact. Right well, with Revival Nutrition,

706
00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:10,399
Speaker 1: and there are two lines, There's an adult line called

707
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:14,160
Speaker 1: Revive a Some and a kid's line named Revival Sprout.

708
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:17,200
Speaker 1: What you do is it's a liquid form and your

709
00:43:17,200 --> 00:43:21,200
Speaker 1: body absorbs about eighty percent of that, so I just

710
00:43:21,360 --> 00:43:23,840
Speaker 1: can't tell you. As a person who takes about thirteen

711
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:27,400
Speaker 1: to fifteen supplements a day, this has really changed the

712
00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:30,279
Speaker 1: way I think about now. The other great aspect of

713
00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:32,640
Speaker 1: it is that it tastes phenomenal.

714
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:33,799
Speaker 2: Right, I put it.

715
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:35,680
Speaker 1: In my shakes in the morning, I mix it with

716
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:39,920
Speaker 1: my juice at night. Right, these are incredibly good tasting

717
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:42,879
Speaker 1: product for supplements which typically have bad taste to them,

718
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:44,279
Speaker 1: but these are phenomenal.

719
00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:46,840
Speaker 2: The other aspect is our value.

720
00:43:47,480 --> 00:43:50,640
Speaker 1: I would hold our value against any other company out

721
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:53,520
Speaker 1: there in fact better. In most cases, it's just you

722
00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 1: can't be It's better science, it tastes better, and it's

723
00:43:56,719 --> 00:43:59,600
Speaker 1: a better value overall. All Right, one of the products

724
00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:02,880
Speaker 1: that I really really just love is this magnesium complex.

725
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:04,840
Speaker 2: Right, this is so awesome.

726
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 1: Now, if you're not taking magnesium complex, some of the

727
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:10,520
Speaker 1: things that it can promote is it promotes relaxation and

728
00:44:10,600 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 1: RESTful sleep, supports the body's response to occasional stress, supports

729
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:20,760
Speaker 1: balance and emotional well being, supports heart health and cardiovascular function,

730
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:24,440
Speaker 1: and promotes healthy bones and teeth. So right before you

731
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:27,520
Speaker 1: go to bed, you take a little magnesium complex and

732
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:28,400
Speaker 1: you feel great.

733
00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:29,759
Speaker 2: The other one is glutathion.

734
00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:33,560
Speaker 1: Right, Glutathion is an incredible product that I've been taken

735
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:36,720
Speaker 1: for the past year and it has done so much

736
00:44:36,880 --> 00:44:42,200
Speaker 1: for my system in terms of my immune function, recovery, longevity, aging,

737
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:45,319
Speaker 1: gastrointestinal health because I have a bad gut for being

738
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 1: at war so much, and then also antioxidants in terms

739
00:44:49,200 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 1: of skin. So with all of saying all that to

740
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:55,279
Speaker 1: say this, just give us, give them a shot. Go

741
00:44:55,320 --> 00:45:00,439
Speaker 1: to Revival nutrition dot com forward slash rut rut, check

742
00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:03,400
Speaker 1: out all the different things we have to offer, and

743
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:05,759
Speaker 1: if you decide to buy, you're going to get a

744
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:09,600
Speaker 1: free box of vitamin C with any purchase price that

745
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:12,240
Speaker 1: you have. And if you type in the promo code

746
00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:16,359
Speaker 1: David d div id in your checkout, you're going to get

747
00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:19,600
Speaker 1: another twenty percent off for me. So once again, check

748
00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 1: the link below or go to revival nutrition dot com

749
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:26,719
Speaker 1: forward slash rut and you type in your promo code

750
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:31,800
Speaker 1: David when you check out, and enjoy your liposomal supplements each.

751
00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:33,080
Speaker 2: And every day. Oo yah.

752
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:35,040
Speaker 1: Now you got to start to think, all right, what

753
00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 1: would be the economic fallout of all this?

754
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:39,120
Speaker 2: And I'm going to go through this pretty quick.

755
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:41,239
Speaker 1: All right, So some of the things that you want

756
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:43,360
Speaker 1: to really think about is what were some of the

757
00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:48,480
Speaker 1: ideas that took place economically? So first Gulf War, Golf War, Web,

758
00:45:48,560 --> 00:45:52,759
Speaker 1: Desert Storm first one, all right. Basically it was a

759
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:56,719
Speaker 1: short war, right, Yes, oil popped a little bit, but

760
00:45:57,000 --> 00:46:00,600
Speaker 1: afterwards there was a huge, huge rally in in the

761
00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:05,239
Speaker 1: s and P five hundred came back strong. Now the

762
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:08,880
Speaker 1: year later and essentially after ninety one ninety two we

763
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:12,680
Speaker 1: went into an inflationary place and that was probably from

764
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:15,359
Speaker 1: all the spending that was kind of hidden that came

765
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:18,800
Speaker 1: up to speed. You had the savings and loans eighty seven,

766
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:22,239
Speaker 1: you had the covert war in Afghanistan. There were some

767
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:27,080
Speaker 1: other economic challenges that took place during that time. But again,

768
00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:31,080
Speaker 1: you know, wars typically short wars boost economy. Now, what

769
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:32,399
Speaker 1: I want to do is I want to talk about

770
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 1: defense spending. Okay, so defense spending basically two thousand and one,

771
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 1: two years prior to but we started nine to eleven,

772
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:48,760
Speaker 1: defense spending was three hundred and thirty five billion dollars

773
00:46:48,800 --> 00:46:52,000
Speaker 1: a year. By two thousand and seven that number had

774
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:55,960
Speaker 1: gone to five hundred and fifty seven billion. All Right,

775
00:46:56,440 --> 00:46:59,680
Speaker 1: there you go, great graph up there. And so when

776
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 1: you look at defense spending in the Afghanistan war prior

777
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:07,600
Speaker 1: to two hundred ninety two, same thing by the end

778
00:47:07,760 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 1: up to five what is that? Five five hundred and

779
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:14,560
Speaker 1: six billion, five hundred and six billion, all right, first war.

780
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:20,120
Speaker 1: It actually dropped post war. But again we weren't even talking.

781
00:47:20,120 --> 00:47:23,399
Speaker 1: We were talking about such a deminimous fight there, and

782
00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 1: it wasn't a full regime change. Remember we went in,

783
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:28,440
Speaker 1: punched him in his nose, got kway back, and then

784
00:47:28,480 --> 00:47:29,000
Speaker 1: took off.

785
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:29,480
Speaker 2: All right.

786
00:47:29,520 --> 00:47:33,919
Speaker 1: By the way, this is per year, yes, yeah, yeah, Sorry,

787
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:34,560
Speaker 1: it wasn't clear.

788
00:47:34,719 --> 00:47:39,040
Speaker 2: This is per year. Right now? Where are we right now?

789
00:47:40,040 --> 00:47:43,240
Speaker 1: President just requested we're all we're close to a trillion

790
00:47:43,280 --> 00:47:45,840
Speaker 1: dollars a year and spending now nine hundred and some

791
00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:48,880
Speaker 1: odd billion, and the president just requested to go up

792
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:52,320
Speaker 1: to a one point five billion dollars spend on defense.

793
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:55,400
Speaker 1: Maybe he knew how a little premonition of what was

794
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:59,840
Speaker 1: to come or not. But think about that, and that's

795
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:03,000
Speaker 1: you know, again, what is it potentially going to happen

796
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:07,480
Speaker 1: for the defense spending here?

797
00:48:07,640 --> 00:48:10,200
Speaker 2: Right? So rough estimate.

798
00:48:11,000 --> 00:48:15,520
Speaker 1: If ground troops go in history says oil is going

799
00:48:15,600 --> 00:48:17,759
Speaker 1: to go skyrocket over.

800
00:48:19,080 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 2: A hundred barrels.

801
00:48:20,680 --> 00:48:22,319
Speaker 1: Let me go back, and I just want to talk

802
00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:27,759
Speaker 1: about oil prices, Iraq War two, And this is one's key.

803
00:48:27,880 --> 00:48:31,439
Speaker 2: Right in twoy twenty two thousand.

804
00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:36,360
Speaker 1: And two, one year prior to the Iraq War, oil

805
00:48:36,480 --> 00:48:40,880
Speaker 1: was twenty six dollars a barrel. Right twenty two thousand

806
00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:43,760
Speaker 1: and three, it went to twenty thirty one. It rose

807
00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:49,520
Speaker 1: throughout the year four forty two dollars, five fifty seven dollars,

808
00:48:49,880 --> 00:48:54,279
Speaker 1: six sixty six dollars, oh, seven seventy two, and then

809
00:48:54,440 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 1: spikee to what one hundred and forty seven dollars a

810
00:48:58,719 --> 00:49:02,239
Speaker 1: barrel into thousand and eight? What also happened in two

811
00:49:02,280 --> 00:49:07,080
Speaker 1: thousand and eight, Jordy.

812
00:49:05,960 --> 00:49:07,040
Speaker 2: There's a movie about it.

813
00:49:08,520 --> 00:49:13,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, great big short, the big short. A massive economic

814
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:17,160
Speaker 1: collapse we have now? Is that going to necessarily happen?

815
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:20,799
Speaker 1: I've talked to certain economists who believe we're already on

816
00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 1: the precipice of an economic collapse or recession, minimally maybe

817
00:49:26,640 --> 00:49:32,280
Speaker 1: a depression. Obviously, we've got the AI laying off thousands

818
00:49:32,360 --> 00:49:37,400
Speaker 1: of jobs. We've got the market kind of weighted in

819
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 1: only seven the Super seven, those stocks, the tech stocks.

820
00:49:40,920 --> 00:49:44,439
Speaker 1: We've got a massive problem going on in commercial real

821
00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:48,439
Speaker 1: estate devaluation, and in many places they believe that we're

822
00:49:48,440 --> 00:49:53,120
Speaker 1: in a home sale economic sales. Way more sellers than

823
00:49:53,120 --> 00:49:57,280
Speaker 1: buyers out there right now. So we're all teetering and

824
00:49:57,360 --> 00:50:02,040
Speaker 1: flirting with this whole thing, all right now. I will

825
00:50:02,080 --> 00:50:05,240
Speaker 1: say this that when the military industrial complex gets ramped

826
00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:08,480
Speaker 1: up and starts producing, we can shift to a war

827
00:50:08,960 --> 00:50:12,839
Speaker 1: industry of war footing economically, which can have some benefits,

828
00:50:13,600 --> 00:50:20,360
Speaker 1: but again, long term impacts do not generally are favorable

829
00:50:20,440 --> 00:50:25,720
Speaker 1: for oil prices as well as the markets, all right now.

830
00:50:25,920 --> 00:50:29,880
Speaker 1: The other challenge is long term spending. In terms of

831
00:50:29,920 --> 00:50:34,200
Speaker 1: our overall deathicit. Obviously we're coming up. We're right around

832
00:50:34,200 --> 00:50:39,320
Speaker 1: thirty nine trillion, high probability will cross forty trillion in debt.

833
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:43,000
Speaker 1: Now again we have to pay interest on those that debt,

834
00:50:43,280 --> 00:50:46,840
Speaker 1: and the interest payments are skyrocketing right now, so that's

835
00:50:46,840 --> 00:50:49,840
Speaker 1: a factor too. And all this you combine that with

836
00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:52,680
Speaker 1: global You pulled up the infamous.

837
00:50:52,239 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 2: Debt clock on me, buddy, what's that sucker?

838
00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:55,439
Speaker 1: Say?

839
00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:58,279
Speaker 2: Over there? How close are we to? We went over

840
00:50:58,360 --> 00:50:59,680
Speaker 2: thirty nine? Right?

841
00:50:59,719 --> 00:51:02,279
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, we're we're just over thirty nine just over

842
00:51:02,320 --> 00:51:02,879
Speaker 3: thirty nine.

843
00:51:03,040 --> 00:51:06,919
Speaker 1: Congratulations, yeah, yeah, who yeah, everybody, Your kids have six

844
00:51:07,000 --> 00:51:09,799
Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars in debt before they even get out

845
00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:10,520
Speaker 1: of middle school.

846
00:51:10,600 --> 00:51:10,960
Speaker 2: All right.

847
00:51:12,239 --> 00:51:14,440
Speaker 1: The other challenge you on it think about is what

848
00:51:14,560 --> 00:51:17,800
Speaker 1: is it? How does it affect politically? Right, it's the

849
00:51:17,840 --> 00:51:19,839
Speaker 1: lastal piece, and I'll be quick about this. I'll wrap

850
00:51:19,880 --> 00:51:22,160
Speaker 1: this up in the next few minutes. All Right, politically

851
00:51:22,239 --> 00:51:25,800
Speaker 1: first and foremost. If you look at the first golf

852
00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:28,480
Speaker 1: war right status Storm one, we had a good little

853
00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:32,160
Speaker 1: coalition going in right there, right to in particular the

854
00:51:32,280 --> 00:51:38,400
Speaker 1: UK because they had very strategic initiatives with their energy

855
00:51:38,400 --> 00:51:42,239
Speaker 1: production in the region as well too. When you look

856
00:51:42,280 --> 00:51:47,080
Speaker 1: at Afghanistan, we had a massive coalition right Iraq, things

857
00:51:47,080 --> 00:51:49,919
Speaker 1: shrunk down, And what we've seen over the last few

858
00:51:49,920 --> 00:51:55,600
Speaker 1: weeks is a very substantial pushback from our NATO members

859
00:51:56,040 --> 00:52:01,960
Speaker 1: and now that our Golf Coast Golf State collective of group,

860
00:52:02,000 --> 00:52:06,080
Speaker 1: they're all pretty pissed off right now. But what's gonna

861
00:52:06,080 --> 00:52:09,120
Speaker 1: happen is we're gonna be at this thing by ourselves.

862
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:13,200
Speaker 1: Trump just went out and basically called everybody cowards because

863
00:52:13,239 --> 00:52:16,320
Speaker 1: nobody wants to dedicate warships to open up the straits

864
00:52:16,320 --> 00:52:18,359
Speaker 1: of horror moves because they don't want to jeopardize their

865
00:52:18,400 --> 00:52:22,839
Speaker 1: personnel because what happens if they do it destroys them politically.

866
00:52:23,440 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 1: And I also think there's some games and ship going

867
00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:28,440
Speaker 1: on with NATO allies because they're pissed. Trump said, well,

868
00:52:28,440 --> 00:52:31,760
Speaker 1: we're not gonna keep spending all the money for Ukraine.

869
00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:34,439
Speaker 1: You guys got a pony up too, and if you don't,

870
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:37,560
Speaker 1: you've probably forgotten already. Just four or five months ago,

871
00:52:37,960 --> 00:52:40,320
Speaker 1: NATO is coming out and saying we don't need America.

872
00:52:40,440 --> 00:52:43,400
Speaker 1: We're gonna increase to eight hundred billion dollars annually for

873
00:52:43,480 --> 00:52:44,520
Speaker 1: our defense spending.

874
00:52:44,719 --> 00:52:46,440
Speaker 2: Meanwhile, the UK has what.

875
00:52:47,480 --> 00:52:50,600
Speaker 1: One hundred thousand or so troops, Right, you think they're

876
00:52:50,640 --> 00:52:55,320
Speaker 1: gonna go into an enlistment or a conscription to support

877
00:52:55,320 --> 00:52:56,000
Speaker 1: a warn Iran.

878
00:52:56,760 --> 00:52:58,480
Speaker 2: Hell no, they're not going to do that.

879
00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:04,640
Speaker 1: This is our war or we own it, right, Okay,

880
00:53:05,480 --> 00:53:09,359
Speaker 1: So the worldwide geopolitics is very problematic.

881
00:53:09,480 --> 00:53:09,640
Speaker 2: Right.

882
00:53:09,680 --> 00:53:12,760
Speaker 1: There's already been a huge push with bricks, the initiative

883
00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:17,040
Speaker 1: of bricks to start driving away from the dollar being

884
00:53:17,040 --> 00:53:20,960
Speaker 1: the reserve currency. Now typically in global conflicts, the dollar

885
00:53:21,040 --> 00:53:26,279
Speaker 1: gains strength and remains in particular within energy sectors, which

886
00:53:26,320 --> 00:53:28,960
Speaker 1: is a lot of what the everybody's paying the close

887
00:53:29,040 --> 00:53:32,960
Speaker 1: attention to. But if energy gets to two one hundred

888
00:53:33,000 --> 00:53:34,960
Speaker 1: dollars a barrel or more, and by the way, we

889
00:53:35,239 --> 00:53:38,399
Speaker 1: can be self sustained in America, especially with our new

890
00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:42,200
Speaker 1: deal with Venezuela, because we have refineries in the golf

891
00:53:42,239 --> 00:53:45,359
Speaker 1: that are designed for that heavy crew to refine that.

892
00:53:45,440 --> 00:53:49,200
Speaker 1: So regionally, with our own energy production, we should be good.

893
00:53:49,480 --> 00:53:53,239
Speaker 1: But what happens is we lose prowess overseas. In particular,

894
00:53:53,640 --> 00:53:58,600
Speaker 1: China's probably still purchasing oil from a bunch of different people.

895
00:53:58,640 --> 00:54:02,359
Speaker 1: In the end, Russias can produce its own oil all

896
00:54:02,400 --> 00:54:05,360
Speaker 1: through there, and you know, we have all these other.

897
00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:08,200
Speaker 2: Ways to go around.

898
00:54:08,920 --> 00:54:11,840
Speaker 1: But again, the energy crisis is going to affect everyone,

899
00:54:11,880 --> 00:54:17,840
Speaker 1: including what supply chains. Again, we saw how catastrophically we

900
00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:22,520
Speaker 1: were during COVID when those supply chains got shut down.

901
00:54:23,120 --> 00:54:25,360
Speaker 1: And guess what do you think China could start to

902
00:54:25,400 --> 00:54:28,440
Speaker 1: pinch our supply chain a little bit, or India pinch

903
00:54:28,480 --> 00:54:31,520
Speaker 1: ourge supply chain. So you got to think about fertilizer,

904
00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:34,200
Speaker 1: You got to think about all the different chemicals and

905
00:54:34,239 --> 00:54:37,120
Speaker 1: things that we import around that area of the world.

906
00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:42,200
Speaker 1: And that being reduced dramatically in an already kind of economy.

907
00:54:42,239 --> 00:54:46,799
Speaker 1: We got right going right now, all right politically in

908
00:54:46,840 --> 00:54:50,359
Speaker 1: the United States, domestically, we're already seeing it happen. Right.

909
00:54:51,840 --> 00:54:54,319
Speaker 1: You might not believe so, but I'm telling you here,

910
00:54:54,400 --> 00:54:59,240
Speaker 1: I pay attention. The Maga Coalition is broken, hands down.

911
00:54:59,560 --> 00:55:01,440
Speaker 1: I hate the be the bearer of bad news. I

912
00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:03,200
Speaker 1: hate to tell you what you don't want to hear.

913
00:55:03,640 --> 00:55:06,719
Speaker 1: But if you don't start paying attention to this, you're

914
00:55:06,880 --> 00:55:11,200
Speaker 1: you're you're living in a in a in a siloed perspective.

915
00:55:11,800 --> 00:55:16,760
Speaker 1: The Maga coalition is broken. You've got an anti war group,

916
00:55:16,880 --> 00:55:22,360
Speaker 1: You've got an anti Israeli government group. You've got uh uh,

917
00:55:22,400 --> 00:55:25,600
Speaker 1: you know, a pro Trump at all costs. You know,

918
00:55:25,680 --> 00:55:29,719
Speaker 1: you've got America First group. You've got all these factions

919
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:31,919
Speaker 1: now that are out. And then on the flip side

920
00:55:31,920 --> 00:55:35,960
Speaker 1: of that, you've got the Democrats where all the pressure

921
00:55:35,960 --> 00:55:38,319
Speaker 1: and all the eyes are on that. They're regrouping right now,

922
00:55:38,480 --> 00:55:41,840
Speaker 1: they're regrouping around all this messaging, and you're starting to

923
00:55:41,880 --> 00:55:45,880
Speaker 1: see that take place on Capitol Hill. So whereas we

924
00:55:45,960 --> 00:55:50,040
Speaker 1: thought we had them completely defeated. If we lose the House,

925
00:55:50,120 --> 00:55:53,960
Speaker 1: which most people are predicting in twenty six and that's

926
00:55:54,000 --> 00:55:55,600
Speaker 1: not coming from democratic polling.

927
00:55:55,760 --> 00:55:57,840
Speaker 2: And by the way, I hate polling. It's just ridiculous.

928
00:55:58,400 --> 00:56:00,640
Speaker 1: You know, when we when polling suit us, we love

929
00:56:00,680 --> 00:56:03,359
Speaker 1: it when polling does what we call it bull all

930
00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:04,160
Speaker 1: polling's bull.

931
00:56:04,280 --> 00:56:06,320
Speaker 2: It is what it is. You gotta be paying.

932
00:56:06,080 --> 00:56:10,400
Speaker 1: Attention to the sentiments of what's taking place on people

933
00:56:10,400 --> 00:56:13,600
Speaker 1: who are in quotation influencers.

934
00:56:12,880 --> 00:56:13,920
Speaker 2: Or the new media.

935
00:56:14,200 --> 00:56:16,719
Speaker 1: The new media is where you're hearing the sentiment of

936
00:56:16,719 --> 00:56:20,080
Speaker 1: what's going on. Just look at legacy media the last

937
00:56:20,120 --> 00:56:24,520
Speaker 1: three elections completely living in La La Land. Well, guess what,

938
00:56:24,800 --> 00:56:27,040
Speaker 1: now's your turn to come out of Llalla Land and

939
00:56:27,080 --> 00:56:30,840
Speaker 1: start paying attention to independent media because that's what you

940
00:56:31,000 --> 00:56:34,800
Speaker 1: have to pay attention. The numbers, the sheer scale of numbers.

941
00:56:34,880 --> 00:56:38,720
Speaker 1: Let's just take Megan Kelly's number, and one month Megan

942
00:56:38,800 --> 00:56:42,320
Speaker 1: Kelly did like one hundred and fifty seven million downloads

943
00:56:42,440 --> 00:56:48,640
Speaker 1: on her Show's that's every major news outlet all combined,

944
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:52,680
Speaker 1: and she's still be defeated at one person. So if

945
00:56:52,680 --> 00:56:57,960
Speaker 1: you still think that Fox is relevant, CNN's relevant, MSNBC's relevant,

946
00:56:57,960 --> 00:57:00,640
Speaker 1: News Max is relevant, any of that out of your

947
00:57:00,719 --> 00:57:06,080
Speaker 1: mind right. People are sourcing the information, especially young people.

948
00:57:06,200 --> 00:57:09,239
Speaker 1: And by the way, they are a significant motor block.

949
00:57:09,560 --> 00:57:12,839
Speaker 1: They're bigger than you boomers. If you're a boomer and

950
00:57:12,880 --> 00:57:16,280
Speaker 1: you're listening to this, gen Z and millennials, they're a

951
00:57:16,320 --> 00:57:21,040
Speaker 1: bigger contingency of voters than you are. And they're not

952
00:57:21,160 --> 00:57:23,880
Speaker 1: paying attention to Fox. They're not watching any of this,

953
00:57:24,080 --> 00:57:27,320
Speaker 1: and they're pissed off. I'm telling you they are. Yes,

954
00:57:27,360 --> 00:57:30,200
Speaker 1: there is a big group out there that is go America.

955
00:57:30,280 --> 00:57:33,440
Speaker 1: As am I right, I want America to win always.

956
00:57:33,480 --> 00:57:37,080
Speaker 1: I'm not a I a Tola sympathizer.

957
00:57:37,240 --> 00:57:38,680
Speaker 2: I'm not anti Semitic.

958
00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:42,000
Speaker 1: What I am is a realist because why because I've

959
00:57:42,040 --> 00:57:45,320
Speaker 1: seen twenty two years of combat and the g WATT

960
00:57:45,320 --> 00:57:47,400
Speaker 1: and what it did to our forces, what it did

961
00:57:47,400 --> 00:57:49,560
Speaker 1: to our economy, what it did to our debt, and

962
00:57:49,600 --> 00:57:52,760
Speaker 1: what it did to our population in terms of skepticism

963
00:57:52,880 --> 00:57:57,960
Speaker 1: for what new regime change wars. And that's what's taking

964
00:57:58,040 --> 00:58:03,640
Speaker 1: place right now. So we will know soon enough. We

965
00:58:03,720 --> 00:58:08,640
Speaker 1: will know in November twenty twenty six the profound impact. Now,

966
00:58:08,680 --> 00:58:11,480
Speaker 1: if we lose the House and we lose the Senate,

967
00:58:11,960 --> 00:58:17,320
Speaker 1: I guarantee you Donald Trump will be impeached. I guarantee

968
00:58:17,400 --> 00:58:22,240
Speaker 1: it multiple times. Right, this is going plus, all funding

969
00:58:22,280 --> 00:58:25,640
Speaker 1: will be shut down for this war. They'll stop funding it,

970
00:58:25,680 --> 00:58:28,439
Speaker 1: they'll stop doing this maybe, I don't know. Usually when

971
00:58:29,280 --> 00:58:31,360
Speaker 1: people come out and bark a big game, but as

972
00:58:31,400 --> 00:58:35,720
Speaker 1: if they've got some military component in their region or area,

973
00:58:35,880 --> 00:58:38,800
Speaker 1: they're going to still in private, you know, vote for

974
00:58:38,840 --> 00:58:40,880
Speaker 1: more funding because it helps their constituents.

975
00:58:40,920 --> 00:58:42,760
Speaker 2: It's just the state of the world, all.

976
00:58:42,720 --> 00:58:46,040
Speaker 1: Right, But I will tell you this, it certainly will

977
00:58:46,080 --> 00:58:51,640
Speaker 1: make twenty eight a much more difficult reality for Republicans.

978
00:58:52,160 --> 00:58:55,080
Speaker 1: All Right, that was a lot of information. I've been

979
00:58:55,160 --> 00:58:59,160
Speaker 1: going for about an hour. I hope you have some

980
00:58:59,200 --> 00:59:05,480
Speaker 1: more contact in this. A ground invasion of Iran is

981
00:59:05,560 --> 00:59:14,000
Speaker 1: a multi year million plus and my estimation we would.

982
00:59:14,240 --> 00:59:15,720
Speaker 2: Probably lose.

983
00:59:19,200 --> 00:59:23,400
Speaker 1: One hundred thousand, two hundred thousand ground force troops in

984
00:59:23,520 --> 00:59:27,880
Speaker 1: that three to three to five year period, right, because

985
00:59:27,920 --> 00:59:32,040
Speaker 1: this is unlike anything we've ever engaged in. It's not Iraq,

986
00:59:32,520 --> 00:59:36,400
Speaker 1: it's not like, it's not Sudan, it's not Libya, it's

987
00:59:36,440 --> 00:59:37,200
Speaker 1: not Syria.

988
00:59:38,000 --> 00:59:42,240
Speaker 2: Right, it's none of that. This is the next level of.

989
00:59:43,920 --> 00:59:50,320
Speaker 1: Technological warfare in the modern era, and we would have

990
00:59:50,400 --> 00:59:54,919
Speaker 1: to throw millions of our young men and women at

991
00:59:54,960 --> 00:59:59,600
Speaker 1: this this effort in order to be able to eradicate

992
00:59:59,640 --> 01:00:03,760
Speaker 1: the REGI hold it for long period of time and

993
01:00:03,880 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 1: figure out how to install somebody in a country ninety

994
01:00:08,760 --> 01:00:11,600
Speaker 1: million plus people, you got to figure eighty percent of

995
01:00:11,600 --> 01:00:16,360
Speaker 1: them are die hard Shia Islamists or supportive. And after

996
01:00:16,400 --> 01:00:18,640
Speaker 1: we go in and we kill a couple hundred thousand

997
01:00:18,760 --> 01:00:21,960
Speaker 1: or a million civilians, women and children, now all of

998
01:00:21,960 --> 01:00:26,720
Speaker 1: a sudden, you hyper radicalize an entire country, the oldest,

999
01:00:26,840 --> 01:00:32,400
Speaker 1: longest running culture in society in human history, against the

1000
01:00:32,440 --> 01:00:40,480
Speaker 1: great Satan America itself. So that's a sobering thought. I'm

1001
01:00:40,560 --> 01:00:44,320
Speaker 1: just once again trying to contextualize this. Is there a

1002
01:00:44,440 --> 01:00:49,280
Speaker 1: high potential for victory? It depends on how you gauge

1003
01:00:49,320 --> 01:00:51,840
Speaker 1: what victory is. What is mission success?

1004
01:00:51,880 --> 01:00:52,240
Speaker 2: For you?

1005
01:00:52,720 --> 01:00:56,840
Speaker 1: Does mission success? Does it look like Afghanistan? Does mission

1006
01:00:56,960 --> 01:01:02,400
Speaker 1: success look like Iraq? Does mission success look like Vietnam?

1007
01:01:03,080 --> 01:01:07,200
Speaker 1: Does mission success look like Korea? What does mission success

1008
01:01:07,280 --> 01:01:10,320
Speaker 1: look like? And if you're old enough to remember, or

1009
01:01:10,320 --> 01:01:15,880
Speaker 1: you've studied enough, if mission success is World War Two,

1010
01:01:17,840 --> 01:01:21,280
Speaker 1: we lost over four hundred thousand people and another millions

1011
01:01:21,320 --> 01:01:27,840
Speaker 1: affected long term for that type of engagement right again,

1012
01:01:28,240 --> 01:01:29,760
Speaker 1: I just want to be a realist.

1013
01:01:29,800 --> 01:01:31,760
Speaker 2: I want to give you some context.

1014
01:01:32,360 --> 01:01:36,160
Speaker 1: If you're gung ho about waging a ground war in Iran,

1015
01:01:36,800 --> 01:01:40,280
Speaker 1: what's some ideas that you need to process and think about.

1016
01:01:40,840 --> 01:01:43,960
Speaker 1: All right, thank you so much for tuning in with us, Jordy.

1017
01:01:44,080 --> 01:01:46,960
Speaker 1: Once again, thanks for all your help, buddy. I love

1018
01:01:47,040 --> 01:01:50,080
Speaker 1: doing a show with you. I hope you all enjoyed this.

1019
01:01:50,360 --> 01:01:52,920
Speaker 1: If you learn something new, please share it with somebody

1020
01:01:52,960 --> 01:01:56,840
Speaker 1: a friend, super easy. Just clink the licks below, clink

1021
01:01:56,840 --> 01:01:59,560
Speaker 1: the licks blow or follow us on all social media

1022
01:01:59,680 --> 01:02:02,120
Speaker 1: sites at David Rutherford Show or on ex at d

1023
01:02:02,320 --> 01:02:06,080
Speaker 1: Rutherford or follow me at Team frog Logic on x

1024
01:02:06,640 --> 01:02:13,920
Speaker 1: on on uh, Facebook, Team frog Logic and on Instagram

1025
01:02:14,280 --> 01:02:17,520
Speaker 1: at Team frog Logic for posts and ideas behind this

1026
01:02:18,240 --> 01:02:21,440
Speaker 1: and uh, I just am so thankful for you and

1027
01:02:21,440 --> 01:02:24,880
Speaker 1: and I just my prayers are that that God can

1028
01:02:24,920 --> 01:02:28,560
Speaker 1: come down and and generate some peace in that region. Uh.

1029
01:02:28,600 --> 01:02:32,080
Speaker 2: And we can go back to some civility. Uh. And

1030
01:02:32,080 --> 01:02:35,120
Speaker 2: and young people can stop dying at scale all right?

1031
01:02:35,200 --> 01:02:45,600
Speaker 2: Who Yeah,