WEBVTT - How to Convince Biden to Quit 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:16.044 Pushkin. 0:00:23.724 --> 0:00:27.524 Hi, everyone, welcome back to Risky Business, our podcast about 0:00:27.524 --> 0:00:29.964 making better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakova. 0:00:30.524 --> 0:00:31.284 I'm Nate Silver. 0:00:31.844 --> 0:00:33.004 So today we're going. 0:00:32.884 --> 0:00:35.644 To be doing a little bit of a deep dive 0:00:35.804 --> 0:00:39.804 into the political situation that is a Joe Biden, and 0:00:39.964 --> 0:00:42.244 then we'll be talking about the World Series of Poker. 0:00:42.604 --> 0:00:45.524 It is currently the main event, and we are taping 0:00:45.524 --> 0:00:49.204 this right before I go play day three. I'm running 0:00:49.204 --> 0:00:52.044 on about four hours of sleep, but I'm very excited 0:00:52.044 --> 0:00:54.884 to be here Nate, and we're going to get totally 0:00:54.924 --> 0:00:58.204 psyched up to play by talking about the amazing decisions 0:00:58.244 --> 0:01:00.644 that the United States political machinery is making. 0:01:00.924 --> 0:01:04.484 I got a great night's sleep after having gotten knocked 0:01:04.484 --> 0:01:06.004 out of the main event on the last level. There 0:01:06.044 --> 0:01:08.364 is more poker later this week, but good luck to you, Maria, 0:01:09.004 --> 0:01:09.884 Thanks so much, Nate. 0:01:15.844 --> 0:01:16.964 Let's do a quick recap. 0:01:17.044 --> 0:01:19.964 So last time we spoke about the elections, it was 0:01:20.524 --> 0:01:24.324 right after the debate, which I think the scientific consensus 0:01:24.364 --> 0:01:25.684 was it was a total cluster fuck. 0:01:25.764 --> 0:01:28.124 It's epic shit storm, I think is the. 0:01:28.124 --> 0:01:31.364 Okay, actually perfect, I'm sorry, total cluster fuck. That's a 0:01:31.404 --> 0:01:33.924 little less than shit storm, right, No, actually. 0:01:33.724 --> 0:01:36.084 I think you're right. It's like a it's a shit 0:01:36.164 --> 0:01:39.564 storm inside a black hole, inside a cluster, fuck inside. 0:01:39.164 --> 0:01:42.084 Of fucking Okay, that sounds reasonable. So that's where we 0:01:42.084 --> 0:01:45.404 were last time. We are recording this on Tuesday morning, 0:01:45.604 --> 0:01:48.764 Vegas time. Now it's been a week and a half later, right, 0:01:48.884 --> 0:01:49.524 something like that. 0:01:49.604 --> 0:01:50.284 Two weeks later. 0:01:50.484 --> 0:01:53.964 Yeah, it's been it's been twelve twelve restless nights for 0:01:54.044 --> 0:01:56.724 the since the debate for Joe Biden and the Democrats. 0:01:57.084 --> 0:01:59.564 Yes, and things have gone up and down. Right in 0:01:59.604 --> 0:02:02.164 the immediate aftermath of the debate, it seemed like people 0:02:02.244 --> 0:02:06.004 were absolutely horrified. And then Joe Biden is now going 0:02:06.044 --> 0:02:07.604 on his I'm not resigning tour. 0:02:08.524 --> 0:02:12.044 Look, some comeators. You know. Benji Sarlin's a very bright 0:02:12.164 --> 0:02:15.844 reporter for Semaphore and talks about the kind of mutually 0:02:15.844 --> 0:02:20.484 assured destruction scenario that Biden is presenting for Democrats right 0:02:21.484 --> 0:02:23.044 where he's saying basically, well, I'm going to be the 0:02:23.044 --> 0:02:26.524 nominee whether you like it or not, and so anything 0:02:26.564 --> 0:02:28.284 you do now will just put me in an even 0:02:28.284 --> 0:02:32.204 worse position against Trump. Right, So first of all, let 0:02:32.204 --> 0:02:35.404 me stay this is like actually not Biden's only option. 0:02:35.564 --> 0:02:39.564 Biden has the right to stand down. The ballots are 0:02:39.604 --> 0:02:41.964 not been printed yet. That's all misinformation, right, we haven't 0:02:41.964 --> 0:02:45.644 had the convention yet. By the way, it's actually technically 0:02:45.764 --> 0:02:50.164 speaking not the Democrats only option. There is a conscious 0:02:50.204 --> 0:02:53.724 clause in the convention which says, if you're in you're 0:02:53.764 --> 0:02:55.764 good conscious, you think this guy should not be the nominee, 0:02:56.044 --> 0:02:58.524 then you are not legally bound to vote for him. Now, 0:02:59.084 --> 0:03:01.924 ninety eight ninety nine percent of the delegates where people 0:03:01.964 --> 0:03:06.364 selected by Joe Biden. When you vote in the primaries, 0:03:06.364 --> 0:03:09.004 you vote both for a candidate and for his or 0:03:09.004 --> 0:03:11.484 her Dell gets the convention as chosen by the candidate, right, 0:03:12.044 --> 0:03:14.364 So they're loyal to Biden. But there also weren't really 0:03:14.364 --> 0:03:17.524 necessarily planned for a scenario like this. There might be regular, 0:03:17.724 --> 0:03:20.404 normy Democrats who are kind of local party leaders. If 0:03:20.444 --> 0:03:24.564 you look at polling now of Democratic voters, it's actually 0:03:24.604 --> 0:03:26.644 pretty close. I think in one poll which was put 0:03:26.724 --> 0:03:28.564 up by group it's advocating for this, So take that 0:03:28.604 --> 0:03:30.644 with a grain of salt. Right, In one poll, a 0:03:30.684 --> 0:03:33.684 majority Democratic voters actually said they prefer to have an 0:03:33.724 --> 0:03:36.844 open nomination process to Biden. I mean, I don't know 0:03:36.884 --> 0:03:39.764 what kind of cave people are hiding in. But like 0:03:39.844 --> 0:03:44.164 the concern about Biden's age and the debate is certainly 0:03:44.164 --> 0:03:47.964 not confined to uh, just elites, right, I mean, it's 0:03:48.084 --> 0:03:52.404 with registered impuls of voters for a long time, for months, 0:03:52.404 --> 0:03:56.324 for years, voters have said, sorry, we tolerated up to 0:03:56.364 --> 0:03:59.684 age eighty one, which he is now, right, but another 0:04:00.724 --> 0:04:03.204 another six months this plus another four years eighty six, 0:04:03.284 --> 0:04:04.444 that's not going to work for us, right. 0:04:05.404 --> 0:04:07.404 And if you talk to like, has that has that 0:04:07.444 --> 0:04:08.764 clause ever been used? 0:04:10.764 --> 0:04:13.204 I don't think so. But look, the general no, I 0:04:13.244 --> 0:04:15.124 mean I don't. Well, look, I mean it depends because 0:04:15.124 --> 0:04:18.404 before nineteen seventy two, roughly then, it was kind of 0:04:18.404 --> 0:04:22.564 a smoke filled rooms scenario where parties would have minimal 0:04:22.644 --> 0:04:25.404 to no input from voters. The primaries are mostly for show, 0:04:25.524 --> 0:04:27.804 and then they get going to the convention, like actually 0:04:27.804 --> 0:04:31.404 pick the candidates what the convention was for? You know, 0:04:31.564 --> 0:04:36.644 Since then there hasn't been a situation where the superdugets 0:04:36.684 --> 0:04:39.404 had to be invoked, although it was close in some years, right, 0:04:40.364 --> 0:04:44.484 you know, Hillary versus Obama was fairly close. For example, 0:04:44.804 --> 0:04:46.924 there was talk on the Republican side where Trump at 0:04:46.964 --> 0:04:49.804 one point had a plurality, but not a majority of delegance. 0:04:49.844 --> 0:04:52.604 In twenty sixteen, he wound up though sweeping the last 0:04:52.644 --> 0:04:56.604 twenty percent of states to have a clear majority in 0:04:56.644 --> 0:05:00.204 the end. But look, I mean, the reason you write 0:05:00.244 --> 0:05:03.884 emergency procedures is for emergencies, and Democrats are in kind 0:05:03.884 --> 0:05:06.884 of an emergency. I'm not going to be one of 0:05:06.884 --> 0:05:08.804 those peoplehos like, oh Trump gets elected, it's going to 0:05:08.804 --> 0:05:10.804 be the last election. I think it's probably hyperbolic, right, 0:05:10.804 --> 0:05:12.724 but like one of your goals as a party is 0:05:12.724 --> 0:05:16.404 to elect winning candidates and win elections, and Joe Biden's 0:05:16.404 --> 0:05:18.764 probably not going to beat Donald Trump. And in fact, 0:05:18.764 --> 0:05:21.684 even Democrats if you read the reporting, even Democrats who 0:05:21.684 --> 0:05:24.724 say we can't switch candidates, if you talk to them privately, 0:05:24.724 --> 0:05:28.324 they say, we think Biden's gonna lose. We just don't 0:05:28.324 --> 0:05:31.284 think we have a choice, right, we want to save 0:05:31.364 --> 0:05:35.164 down ballot racist things like that. It's just not very rational. 0:05:35.204 --> 0:05:37.884 I don't think, no, I mean, and it's a you know, 0:05:38.084 --> 0:05:39.764 it's a problem that you get in decision making a 0:05:39.764 --> 0:05:42.724 lot when it's a collective action problem and you need 0:05:42.764 --> 0:05:45.204 that one person to step up and to say something 0:05:45.244 --> 0:05:48.004 and to actually be the person who becomes that voice 0:05:48.004 --> 0:05:50.724 that says, Okay, we need to say publicly what everyone 0:05:50.764 --> 0:05:54.764 is saying privately. But unless that happens, that galvanizing force 0:05:54.924 --> 0:05:58.884 can't gain momentum. And so many times then in these 0:05:58.884 --> 0:06:01.204 decision making processes, and by the way, right right now 0:06:01.284 --> 0:06:04.284 we're talking about the presidency, which is huge, but this 0:06:04.324 --> 0:06:07.444 happens in boardrooms, this happens in corporate decision makings, This 0:06:07.524 --> 0:06:12.604 happens everywhere when everyone is thinking something privately but they 0:06:12.644 --> 0:06:17.164 can't say it publicly because they're too afraid of the repercussions. 0:06:17.324 --> 0:06:19.284 And the calculus just doesn't work out if we put 0:06:19.324 --> 0:06:22.204 it in our game theoretical framework. Right, you start looking 0:06:22.244 --> 0:06:24.524 at the payoff matrix and you say, okay, what's my 0:06:24.564 --> 0:06:27.364 payoff matrix? If I'm the person who speaks out and 0:06:27.404 --> 0:06:29.684 then people don't support me and all these things happen, 0:06:29.924 --> 0:06:32.604 and then I'm the one who loses. And Biden is 0:06:32.604 --> 0:06:37.204 actually playing into that because he's stacking it. He's explicitly saying, Okay, 0:06:37.284 --> 0:06:41.644 your payoff matrix looks like shit because you know I'm 0:06:41.724 --> 0:06:43.724 going to do this, and you don't want to be 0:06:43.764 --> 0:06:47.244 the person who betrayed me, right, you don't want to 0:06:47.244 --> 0:06:49.284 be Buddhists in this scenario. 0:06:50.244 --> 0:06:52.044 Well, look, I don't think he's going to be president 0:06:52.084 --> 0:06:53.644 for much longer. I'm not sure he's going to be 0:06:53.684 --> 0:06:56.764 an influential political figure for much longer, or in good 0:06:56.804 --> 0:06:59.924 health if he is already for much longer. Right, Look, 0:06:59.964 --> 0:07:01.764 I have an article I'm running on I'll finish for 0:07:01.884 --> 0:07:05.244 newsletter subscribers after we finished taping this podcast. I think 0:07:05.364 --> 0:07:08.204 Biden has a weekend and it's running a pretty bad bluff. 0:07:08.244 --> 0:07:11.924 And I think who select to go into politics tend 0:07:11.964 --> 0:07:14.964 to be what I would call knits meeting there. We've 0:07:15.044 --> 0:07:16.964 used that term before on the show, right, And it's 0:07:17.004 --> 0:07:21.124 like a neurotic riskivers person, and elected Democrats are like 0:07:21.404 --> 0:07:25.084 neurotic and riskivers and also very people pleasing. You advance 0:07:25.124 --> 0:07:30.084 in the party by by building alliances and the different 0:07:30.084 --> 0:07:33.564 constituents and commitments you have finding ways to balance those 0:07:34.244 --> 0:07:36.604 pleasing donors, which sounds like the worst thing in the 0:07:36.644 --> 0:07:38.524 world to me, right, to have like some rubber chicken 0:07:38.524 --> 0:07:41.204 dinner where you're pleasing these donors who are rich but 0:07:41.244 --> 0:07:42.804 have dumb opinions about politics most of the time. 0:07:42.884 --> 0:07:46.764 Let's be honest, Yes, you know that sounds like that chicken, 0:07:48.364 --> 0:07:50.724 especially public offer IPO chicken because when you go to 0:07:50.764 --> 0:07:53.884 IPO dinners, they always serve this rubber chicken. 0:07:54.204 --> 0:07:56.684 So yes, they have IPO chicken dinners. 0:07:57.644 --> 0:07:59.724 That life sounds like torture to me. You couldn't fucking 0:07:59.724 --> 0:08:01.444 pay me enough to be a fucking center or something 0:08:01.484 --> 0:08:04.444 like that. However, it selects for people who are not 0:08:04.564 --> 0:08:09.404 inclined to rock the boat. But look, there are several 0:08:09.524 --> 0:08:13.764 things here. What is that Biden has Clearly the first 0:08:13.764 --> 0:08:18.644 move was to get Biden to take a hint gently. 0:08:18.844 --> 0:08:20.164 I mean, the first move is you hope that he 0:08:20.244 --> 0:08:22.244 kind of is aware of the situation on his own right. 0:08:22.604 --> 0:08:24.124 The first move is said, get Biden to take the 0:08:24.164 --> 0:08:27.404 hit gently and then maybe not so quite so gently, 0:08:27.444 --> 0:08:29.404 where you start to have anonymous leaks and then you 0:08:29.444 --> 0:08:35.284 have backbenchers meaning relatively obscure members of Congress kind of saying, hey, 0:08:35.284 --> 0:08:37.244 you should think about this. As far as I know, 0:08:37.324 --> 0:08:39.884 as far as any reporting has suggested, there has not 0:08:39.964 --> 0:08:43.204 been like a posse of senior leaders who has gone 0:08:43.244 --> 0:08:46.884 to the White House and said, Joe, we're not fucking around. 0:08:47.164 --> 0:08:50.004 You're gonna lose, You're gonna embarrass your party, You're gonna 0:08:50.484 --> 0:08:54.444 embarrass your position in history. It's time to stand down. 0:08:54.684 --> 0:08:58.124 So far as I know, that hasn't happened. Really, they 0:08:58.204 --> 0:09:00.644 have kind of gone halfway up the escalatory spiral, but 0:09:00.724 --> 0:09:03.764 they haven't really used their best ammunition yet. Never mind 0:09:03.804 --> 0:09:06.604 these nuclear options like the conscious Clause or the twenty 0:09:06.604 --> 0:09:09.044 fifth Amendment is an amendment to the US Constitution that 0:09:09.044 --> 0:09:11.284 CanCERN if a president is unable to carry out his 0:09:11.364 --> 0:09:14.644 duties and the cabinet can say that the vice president 0:09:14.724 --> 0:09:18.244 ought to take over. I also think that like they 0:09:18.284 --> 0:09:21.764 haven't fully played the Kamala Harris card, and I want 0:09:21.764 --> 0:09:23.524 to talk about Harris in kind of the second half 0:09:23.564 --> 0:09:27.804 of this segment. But like you know, one of the 0:09:27.804 --> 0:09:32.684 ironies is that the Congressional Black Caucus has been what's 0:09:32.724 --> 0:09:36.884 helped Biden to save ground, to salvage ground so far right, 0:09:38.124 --> 0:09:40.124 I don't think there have been any Congressional Black Caucus 0:09:40.124 --> 0:09:42.124 members who have come out yet and said that Biden 0:09:42.164 --> 0:09:45.044 should step aside. There have been many who said that 0:09:45.084 --> 0:09:48.404 he should not step aside, and so you know that 0:09:48.484 --> 0:09:50.444 has been very helpful to him. But if Biden were 0:09:50.484 --> 0:09:54.124 to step aside, the most likely replacement would be, you know, 0:09:54.524 --> 0:09:56.844 the first woman president or the first woman. I guess, 0:09:56.924 --> 0:09:58.964 you know, I know you would take over immediately, But like, 0:09:59.084 --> 0:10:01.084 but Kamala Harris, who could become the first woman president 0:10:01.564 --> 0:10:03.564 and a black woman and an Asian woman as well, 0:10:04.604 --> 0:10:08.444 So it seems like I don't really buy. Look, my 0:10:08.524 --> 0:10:10.324 preference is that you'd have some type of voter input, 0:10:10.444 --> 0:10:14.044 more open nomination process. But like, it seems like, do 0:10:14.164 --> 0:10:17.804 they really prefer Biden to a black vice president who 0:10:17.884 --> 0:10:20.244 was at this point in her life much more capable 0:10:20.604 --> 0:10:24.124 than he is? Right, eighty one year old Biden's not 0:10:24.124 --> 0:10:26.564 more capable than Kamala Harris. I mean, he's not right, 0:10:26.724 --> 0:10:30.484 he's not prosecuting the case against Trump. He's not capable 0:10:30.484 --> 0:10:33.404 of like being up time when you need a potential crisis. 0:10:33.564 --> 0:10:36.084 I mean, you can think Kamala Harris is a mediocre 0:10:36.124 --> 0:10:38.004 at best politician, which I do, and she might not 0:10:38.004 --> 0:10:40.324 be your cup of tea. But like, but it's just 0:10:40.364 --> 0:10:42.804 a bizarre argument that like, you know, so I think 0:10:42.844 --> 0:10:46.604 if if they said, Okay, we might not have enough 0:10:46.684 --> 0:10:50.084 leverage to have this West Wing Aaron Sorkin fantasy convention, 0:10:50.644 --> 0:10:52.924 that Nate Silver might like, right, do you not have 0:10:52.964 --> 0:10:56.804 the leverage to say, let's agree that Kamala Harris is 0:10:56.884 --> 0:11:00.484 a less bad option, right, she is capable of actually 0:11:00.564 --> 0:11:03.924 prosecuting the case against Trump. You're not lying to the 0:11:03.964 --> 0:11:08.564 American public about her fitness for office, and you know what, 0:11:08.564 --> 0:11:11.404 she'll probably lose, but like, but Biden's probably gonna lose too. Like, 0:11:11.524 --> 0:11:15.204 what's the world in which Biden wins that Harris doesn't win. 0:11:15.764 --> 0:11:18.044 I mean, it's like the world where Biden win, involved 0:11:18.044 --> 0:11:19.644 world where the polling is so far off that we 0:11:19.644 --> 0:11:21.484 don't know what I'm gonna begin with, or where like 0:11:21.524 --> 0:11:24.084 Trump goes to jail or something, and like, like any 0:11:24.124 --> 0:11:27.604 Democrat can win into those conditions, any any halfway competent democrat. 0:11:27.684 --> 0:11:29.684 Maybe we're not gonna get more than a halfway competent option. 0:11:29.804 --> 0:11:33.284 But like, I mean, look, we're in Nevada, not Nevada, right, 0:11:33.284 --> 0:11:38.844 Nevada Nevada's And you see ads in Nevada because it's 0:11:38.844 --> 0:11:41.964 a swing state, which New York is not. Saw some 0:11:42.004 --> 0:11:44.564 Spanish language ad for example, where they're like, you know, 0:11:44.644 --> 0:11:47.564 Joe Biden is very competent, he is a steady hand, 0:11:48.004 --> 0:11:49.484 and like he does not have a steady hand. I 0:11:49.484 --> 0:11:52.524 mean literally, I'm not sure he has a steady hand. Anymore. 0:11:52.524 --> 0:11:54.644 I don't mean to diagnosed semtically, but like, but you 0:11:54.684 --> 0:11:59.764 can't project we are the campaign that is just a 0:11:59.764 --> 0:12:04.084 steady hand competence, no chaos anymore. Right, that cat is 0:12:04.684 --> 0:12:07.004 out of the bag. It's too late for that. You're 0:12:07.044 --> 0:12:11.284 selling people on a lie like it just you know, 0:12:11.444 --> 0:12:13.564 the honest thing to do is to say, we chose 0:12:13.564 --> 0:12:16.244 this woman to be vice president, and she has served 0:12:16.724 --> 0:12:19.964 as vice president for three and a half years. Now, 0:12:20.844 --> 0:12:23.724 at any moment she could become president. Joe Biden could 0:12:23.724 --> 0:12:25.684 have a heart attack, there could be some type of 0:12:25.684 --> 0:12:30.644 attack on whenever Joe Biden is located. We elected people 0:12:30.684 --> 0:12:33.404 elected Kamala Harris to be vice president and clearly you're 0:12:33.444 --> 0:12:35.404 in a situation where she is more fit to be 0:12:35.484 --> 0:12:40.004 president than Biden over the next four years. And like, 0:12:40.044 --> 0:12:43.204 what's it say about her or what's it say about 0:12:43.244 --> 0:12:46.884 like how cynical the decision was, Like maybe you picked 0:12:46.924 --> 0:12:51.364 her in June twenty twenty because you're in a period 0:12:51.364 --> 0:12:53.044 summer twenty twenty when you're in a period where there's 0:12:53.044 --> 0:12:57.324 a lot of this racial reckoning, so called right, but 0:12:57.364 --> 0:12:59.044 she is a center from California, She's been in this 0:12:59.164 --> 0:13:01.164 attorney right, she is like someone who I think is 0:13:01.644 --> 0:13:04.804 generally regarded as being very smart and competent. The problems 0:13:04.804 --> 0:13:07.644 were mostly the fact that like that, like politically she 0:13:07.684 --> 0:13:10.444 wasn't a very compelling hand ain't unless have some upside potential, 0:13:10.484 --> 0:13:12.644 But like, what is it saying that these people don't 0:13:12.724 --> 0:13:15.444 trust her in a circumstance where she you know, I 0:13:15.444 --> 0:13:17.684 think obviously it seems more fit for the job now, 0:13:17.764 --> 0:13:19.084 let alone for four more years. 0:13:19.444 --> 0:13:21.564 So what I but I actually so, I don't think 0:13:21.804 --> 0:13:24.204 we're I don't think what we're seeing is as much 0:13:24.244 --> 0:13:26.884 what it says about Kamala Harris. I think it's more 0:13:26.924 --> 0:13:30.884 what we're saying about delusion and doubling down, and what's 0:13:30.924 --> 0:13:34.444 going on psychologically with kind of with the Democratic Party 0:13:34.484 --> 0:13:36.404 and with Biden himself. So I think there are a 0:13:36.444 --> 0:13:42.244 few different real real fallacies happening here and real real issues. 0:13:42.364 --> 0:13:46.364 The first is that Democrats are saying, you know, Biden 0:13:46.444 --> 0:13:48.044 is a good man, like we can convince him to 0:13:48.084 --> 0:13:51.484 step down by kind of these these subtle hence, these 0:13:51.484 --> 0:13:55.044 subtle you know, he'll see the light. What they don't 0:13:55.124 --> 0:13:58.924 understand is that when you attack someone's core identity, right 0:13:59.004 --> 0:14:02.004 who they are, how they see themselves, what their reason 0:14:02.084 --> 0:14:05.764 for being is. That does not work, and what ends 0:14:05.844 --> 0:14:10.244 up happening is you double down and you really do 0:14:10.404 --> 0:14:13.324 not see kind of the light. And I think that's 0:14:13.644 --> 0:14:16.204 that's even worse with Biden right now, because he is 0:14:17.244 --> 0:14:20.164 degrading a little bit when it comes to cognitive capacity. 0:14:20.524 --> 0:14:24.124 We all know see the world through rose colored glasses, 0:14:24.164 --> 0:14:26.404 you know, have this kind of better than average effect 0:14:26.444 --> 0:14:28.884 where we think we're you know, better, et cetera, et cetera. 0:14:29.124 --> 0:14:31.524 But in the case of someone who is president right, 0:14:31.604 --> 0:14:34.964 who has that kind of hubris, who's been reinforced over 0:14:35.044 --> 0:14:37.764 and over and over, that's going to be completely doubled. 0:14:37.804 --> 0:14:39.884 I've wrote an article a number of years ago from 0:14:39.884 --> 0:14:41.924 The New Yorker called I Don't Want to be Right, 0:14:42.444 --> 0:14:45.924 and it's basically about how difficult it is to get 0:14:45.964 --> 0:14:49.764 people to change their minds when the essence of who 0:14:49.804 --> 0:14:53.604 they see themselves as is attacked. And so relying on 0:14:53.644 --> 0:14:56.004 Biden and trying to appeal to his good nature to 0:14:56.084 --> 0:14:58.924 step aside, that is not going to work. And we 0:14:58.964 --> 0:15:02.324 see that actually backfiring right now. We see Biden saying, 0:15:02.324 --> 0:15:04.084 you know, I'm not going to step aside. I'm going 0:15:04.124 --> 0:15:07.004 to fight, and it's obviously not helped that he has 0:15:07.044 --> 0:15:11.924 people around him like Hunter likes Joe Biden who are 0:15:12.004 --> 0:15:14.444 telling him, Oh, no, this is great, this is wonderful. 0:15:14.724 --> 0:15:16.844 And then the flip side of that is that you 0:15:16.924 --> 0:15:20.204 have this party that is a. 0:15:20.124 --> 0:15:24.444 Little bit kind of I don't know if diluted. 0:15:24.044 --> 0:15:26.764 Is the right term. It's a little strong, but it 0:15:26.844 --> 0:15:29.604 might be correct. So I think we've talked on the 0:15:29.604 --> 0:15:33.444 pod before, maybe not about how I see the Trump 0:15:33.484 --> 0:15:37.524 supporters as basically being cult followers, right, doesn't matter what happens, 0:15:37.804 --> 0:15:41.284 They're in this cult. So they're going to rationalize everything away. 0:15:42.084 --> 0:15:45.084 No red flags are actually red flags, and instead they're 0:15:45.124 --> 0:15:47.964 going to kind of go through this cognitive dissonance reduction 0:15:48.524 --> 0:15:50.484 so that they end up saying, no, this is still 0:15:50.524 --> 0:15:52.844 the best candidate, this is wonderful, this is great, like 0:15:52.884 --> 0:15:55.444 no matter what, we're voting for him. And I actually 0:15:55.524 --> 0:15:58.644 see think we're seeing a little bit of that in 0:15:58.684 --> 0:16:01.684 the Democratic Party, where it's not a cult, but it's 0:16:01.724 --> 0:16:06.524 more like Stockholm syndrome ish where they're also rationalizing away 0:16:06.564 --> 0:16:09.684 the red flags. And I think that actually intersects with 0:16:09.724 --> 0:16:11.924 what you were talking about with the risk aversion factor, 0:16:12.244 --> 0:16:15.404 because they're scared and they're scared of taking this kind 0:16:15.444 --> 0:16:18.444 of this gamble. They're scared of doing something unprecedented, and 0:16:18.484 --> 0:16:21.404 that is self reinforcing. So you have that, and then 0:16:21.444 --> 0:16:24.204 you have the kind of the delusion of no, everything's 0:16:24.244 --> 0:16:26.084 going to be okay. This isn't actually a red flag. 0:16:26.124 --> 0:16:29.044 He just had a bad day. And the more you rationalize, 0:16:29.524 --> 0:16:32.204 the easier it becomes to rationalize, and the more you 0:16:32.244 --> 0:16:35.884 actually start believing that this is reality. Because in the 0:16:35.884 --> 0:16:38.124 immediate aftermath of the debates, you were like, holy shit, 0:16:38.204 --> 0:16:41.164 were fucked right, And then like the next day you're like, oh, well, 0:16:41.204 --> 0:16:43.204 maybe it wasn't so bad. And then two days later 0:16:43.204 --> 0:16:45.324 you're like, Okay, really it wasn't so bad. You know, 0:16:45.324 --> 0:16:48.644 you kind of start rewriting history, you start rewriting the 0:16:48.684 --> 0:16:51.324 way that you perceive it, and you end up in 0:16:51.324 --> 0:16:55.324 this place where you're pretty divorced from reality. And that 0:16:55.484 --> 0:16:57.804 is a really dangerous place to be. And I think 0:16:57.844 --> 0:16:59.844 that might be kind of where we are right now. 0:17:19.524 --> 0:17:24.284 So let's say I commission you some I'm Barack Obama, 0:17:24.444 --> 0:17:30.164 right and you're my PhD Columbia psychologists, and I say 0:17:30.204 --> 0:17:33.284 I need to devise a plan to get Joe fucking 0:17:33.284 --> 0:17:35.644 Biden to quit, and I have a week to do 0:17:35.684 --> 0:17:38.084 it before we reach the point of no return. I 0:17:38.084 --> 0:17:40.084 can use any trick in the book, as long as 0:17:40.124 --> 0:17:43.844 it's not illegal, any psychological trick in the book. What 0:17:44.044 --> 0:17:48.444 is a plan to make Joe Biden think it's in 0:17:48.444 --> 0:17:50.204 his best interest to quit? Or is it not a 0:17:50.204 --> 0:17:53.404 matter of or is a matter of playing pure hardball? 0:17:53.564 --> 0:17:53.764 Well? 0:17:53.804 --> 0:17:56.004 I think I think that there can be too approaches 0:17:56.004 --> 0:17:57.964 to it. First, I think you do need to be 0:17:58.044 --> 0:18:01.644 completely straightforward with him and straightforward with the people around him. Right, 0:18:01.684 --> 0:18:03.484 you need to sit Hunter and Jill down as well 0:18:03.484 --> 0:18:07.564 and be like, stop fucking around, like this is bad, right, 0:18:07.924 --> 0:18:10.164 and get that, get that out of the way. But 0:18:10.244 --> 0:18:12.004 then I think you need to be straightforward with him, 0:18:12.004 --> 0:18:13.164 and you need to do it in a way that 0:18:13.164 --> 0:18:16.764 does not attack who he is, but actually reinforces it 0:18:17.524 --> 0:18:20.084 and says, you know, you want to go down in 0:18:20.244 --> 0:18:24.484 history as the great president who stopped Donald Trump. The 0:18:24.524 --> 0:18:28.204 only way to do that is by stepping aside. These 0:18:28.244 --> 0:18:30.324 are all the amazing things that you would be doing. 0:18:30.484 --> 0:18:32.764 This does not make you look weak. It's not because 0:18:32.764 --> 0:18:35.004 you're old. Of course, we know you're competent. Of course, 0:18:35.044 --> 0:18:38.284 we know what you're doing the other people are idiots, though, 0:18:38.324 --> 0:18:42.244 and you need to understand political perception. You need to understand, 0:18:42.524 --> 0:18:45.804 you know, how people are reacting. They're not rational, but 0:18:45.844 --> 0:18:49.484 it doesn't matter because you know that's who we're dealing with. 0:18:49.804 --> 0:18:51.564 So you need to be the bigger man and do 0:18:51.604 --> 0:18:53.724 the right thing. And you're smart enough to do it. 0:18:53.724 --> 0:18:56.284 You're competent enough to do it. You know, you're brilliant, 0:18:56.524 --> 0:18:59.404 use your brilliant mind to step aside and do the 0:18:59.444 --> 0:19:03.244 strategically correct thing to save the country from the brink 0:19:03.244 --> 0:19:06.284 of disaster. So you're doing several things right. You're playing 0:19:06.324 --> 0:19:08.604 to his ego. You're not saying he's weak, you're not 0:19:08.644 --> 0:19:10.884 saying he's too old, you're not saying you're not attacking 0:19:10.964 --> 0:19:14.244 him in ways that make him feel attacked. And instead 0:19:14.244 --> 0:19:16.684 you're trying to say, okay, how do you cement your legacy? 0:19:16.884 --> 0:19:20.524 And honestly, I might even do something like pull the 0:19:20.724 --> 0:19:25.524 RBG card and say, you know, let's let's look at RBG. 0:19:25.924 --> 0:19:29.004 You know someone who was this absolutely brilliant mind. 0:19:29.004 --> 0:19:32.564 Charles Carls Dickens film where the Ghost of RBG Comes. 0:19:32.284 --> 0:19:35.484 From, the Ghost of RBG comes. You know, I can 0:19:35.564 --> 0:19:38.124 dress up as RBG. You said, pull out all the stops, right, 0:19:38.164 --> 0:19:41.764 we can get some CGI special effects and I might 0:19:41.804 --> 0:19:43.764 be a little taller than she is, but you know, 0:19:44.124 --> 0:19:45.484 we'll figure it out actually work. 0:19:45.484 --> 0:19:49.004 Because Biden said, if the God Almighty came down right, Like, 0:19:49.084 --> 0:19:51.924 I'm thinking there's like a twenty percent chance, like if 0:19:51.924 --> 0:19:54.404 you actually stage that in the clever way, would actually work. 0:19:54.444 --> 0:19:57.164 And I'm like, I had some vision and like, you know, 0:19:57.764 --> 0:20:01.684 give him some stroom gummies. It's probably it's probably probably illegal. 0:20:01.684 --> 0:20:02.604 I didn't mean to suggest that. 0:20:03.444 --> 0:20:05.724 Yeah, so we're not going to do anything illegal, but yeah, 0:20:05.844 --> 0:20:08.284 I mean you could even pull that RBG card the 0:20:08.284 --> 0:20:11.764 ghosts of the ghosts justice has passed and saying, you know, 0:20:12.124 --> 0:20:14.564 I bet, like I actually bet that if we if 0:20:14.564 --> 0:20:16.564 we got the ghost of RBG on the pod, she'd 0:20:16.564 --> 0:20:19.644 regret her decision after she saw what happened. You know, 0:20:19.684 --> 0:20:22.364 she was a smart woman. She just let her ego 0:20:22.444 --> 0:20:24.644 get in the way. And I think that that's what's 0:20:24.644 --> 0:20:28.004 happening here. And you can compare, I mean, if you compare, Biden, like, 0:20:28.524 --> 0:20:30.964 I think the key also is to find other good 0:20:31.124 --> 0:20:34.444 historical precedents of people who he admires and who he 0:20:34.524 --> 0:20:37.284 thinks you know, are strong leaders who did something like this, 0:20:37.604 --> 0:20:39.484 who you can be like. You know, you can be 0:20:39.764 --> 0:20:42.644 like or you can be like RBG right, like you 0:20:42.684 --> 0:20:45.284 can do you can do these things. And it's not 0:20:45.404 --> 0:20:49.324 about you the whole thing, right, we always talk about 0:20:49.764 --> 0:20:52.324 you look at all these presidential addresses over you know, 0:20:52.444 --> 0:20:55.204 hundreds of years, and it's all about it's not about you, 0:20:55.244 --> 0:20:57.684 it's about the country. It's about the greater good. And 0:20:57.764 --> 0:21:00.764 so to try to kind of get to that and 0:21:01.004 --> 0:21:02.804 have him hear it, and the only way he's going 0:21:02.884 --> 0:21:05.964