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Speaker 1: Pushkin.

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Speaker 2: Hi, everyone, welcome back to Risky Business, our podcast about

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Speaker 2: making better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakova.

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Speaker 3: I'm Nate Silver.

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Speaker 1: So today we're going.

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Speaker 2: To be doing a little bit of a deep dive

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Speaker 2: into the political situation that is a Joe Biden, and

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Speaker 2: then we'll be talking about the World Series of Poker.

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Speaker 2: It is currently the main event, and we are taping

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Speaker 2: this right before I go play day three. I'm running

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Speaker 2: on about four hours of sleep, but I'm very excited

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Speaker 2: to be here Nate, and we're going to get totally

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Speaker 2: psyched up to play by talking about the amazing decisions

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Speaker 2: that the United States political machinery is making.

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Speaker 3: I got a great night's sleep after having gotten knocked

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Speaker 3: out of the main event on the last level. There

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Speaker 3: is more poker later this week, but good luck to you, Maria,

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Speaker 3: Thanks so much, Nate.

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Speaker 1: Let's do a quick recap.

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Speaker 2: So last time we spoke about the elections, it was

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Speaker 2: right after the debate, which I think the scientific consensus

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Speaker 2: was it was a total cluster fuck.

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Speaker 3: It's epic shit storm, I think is the.

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Speaker 2: Okay, actually perfect, I'm sorry, total cluster fuck. That's a

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Speaker 2: little less than shit storm, right, No, actually.

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Speaker 3: I think you're right. It's like a it's a shit

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Speaker 3: storm inside a black hole, inside a cluster, fuck inside.

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Speaker 2: Of fucking Okay, that sounds reasonable. So that's where we

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Speaker 2: were last time. We are recording this on Tuesday morning,

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Speaker 2: Vegas time. Now it's been a week and a half later, right,

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Speaker 2: something like that.

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Speaker 1: Two weeks later.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's been it's been twelve twelve restless nights for

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Speaker 3: the since the debate for Joe Biden and the Democrats.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and things have gone up and down. Right in

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Speaker 2: the immediate aftermath of the debate, it seemed like people

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Speaker 2: were absolutely horrified. And then Joe Biden is now going

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Speaker 2: on his I'm not resigning tour.

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Speaker 3: Look, some comeators. You know. Benji Sarlin's a very bright

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Speaker 3: reporter for Semaphore and talks about the kind of mutually

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Speaker 3: assured destruction scenario that Biden is presenting for Democrats right

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Speaker 3: where he's saying basically, well, I'm going to be the

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Speaker 3: nominee whether you like it or not, and so anything

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Speaker 3: you do now will just put me in an even

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Speaker 3: worse position against Trump. Right, So first of all, let

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Speaker 3: me stay this is like actually not Biden's only option.

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Speaker 3: Biden has the right to stand down. The ballots are

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Speaker 3: not been printed yet. That's all misinformation, right, we haven't

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Speaker 3: had the convention yet. By the way, it's actually technically

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Speaker 3: speaking not the Democrats only option. There is a conscious

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Speaker 3: clause in the convention which says, if you're in you're

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Speaker 3: good conscious, you think this guy should not be the nominee,

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Speaker 3: then you are not legally bound to vote for him. Now,

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Speaker 3: ninety eight ninety nine percent of the delegates where people

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Speaker 3: selected by Joe Biden. When you vote in the primaries,

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Speaker 3: you vote both for a candidate and for his or

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Speaker 3: her Dell gets the convention as chosen by the candidate, right,

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Speaker 3: So they're loyal to Biden. But there also weren't really

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Speaker 3: necessarily planned for a scenario like this. There might be regular,

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Speaker 3: normy Democrats who are kind of local party leaders. If

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Speaker 3: you look at polling now of Democratic voters, it's actually

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Speaker 3: pretty close. I think in one poll which was put

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Speaker 3: up by group it's advocating for this, So take that

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Speaker 3: with a grain of salt. Right, In one poll, a

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Speaker 3: majority Democratic voters actually said they prefer to have an

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Speaker 3: open nomination process to Biden. I mean, I don't know

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Speaker 3: what kind of cave people are hiding in. But like

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Speaker 3: the concern about Biden's age and the debate is certainly

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Speaker 3: not confined to uh, just elites, right, I mean, it's

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Speaker 3: with registered impuls of voters for a long time, for months,

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Speaker 3: for years, voters have said, sorry, we tolerated up to

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Speaker 3: age eighty one, which he is now, right, but another

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Speaker 3: another six months this plus another four years eighty six,

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Speaker 3: that's not going to work for us, right.

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Speaker 2: And if you talk to like, has that has that

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Speaker 2: clause ever been used?

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Speaker 3: I don't think so. But look, the general no, I

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Speaker 3: mean I don't. Well, look, I mean it depends because

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Speaker 3: before nineteen seventy two, roughly then, it was kind of

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Speaker 3: a smoke filled rooms scenario where parties would have minimal

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Speaker 3: to no input from voters. The primaries are mostly for show,

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Speaker 3: and then they get going to the convention, like actually

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Speaker 3: pick the candidates what the convention was for? You know,

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Speaker 3: Since then there hasn't been a situation where the superdugets

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Speaker 3: had to be invoked, although it was close in some years, right,

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Speaker 3: you know, Hillary versus Obama was fairly close. For example,

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Speaker 3: there was talk on the Republican side where Trump at

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Speaker 3: one point had a plurality, but not a majority of delegance.

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Speaker 3: In twenty sixteen, he wound up though sweeping the last

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Speaker 3: twenty percent of states to have a clear majority in

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Speaker 3: the end. But look, I mean, the reason you write

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Speaker 3: emergency procedures is for emergencies, and Democrats are in kind

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Speaker 3: of an emergency. I'm not going to be one of

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Speaker 3: those peoplehos like, oh Trump gets elected, it's going to

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Speaker 3: be the last election. I think it's probably hyperbolic, right,

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Speaker 3: but like one of your goals as a party is

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Speaker 3: to elect winning candidates and win elections, and Joe Biden's

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Speaker 3: probably not going to beat Donald Trump. And in fact,

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Speaker 3: even Democrats if you read the reporting, even Democrats who

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Speaker 3: say we can't switch candidates, if you talk to them privately,

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Speaker 3: they say, we think Biden's gonna lose. We just don't

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Speaker 3: think we have a choice, right, we want to save

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Speaker 3: down ballot racist things like that. It's just not very rational.

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Speaker 2: I don't think, no, I mean, and it's a you know,

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Speaker 2: it's a problem that you get in decision making a

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Speaker 2: lot when it's a collective action problem and you need

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Speaker 2: that one person to step up and to say something

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Speaker 2: and to actually be the person who becomes that voice

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Speaker 2: that says, Okay, we need to say publicly what everyone

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Speaker 2: is saying privately. But unless that happens, that galvanizing force

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Speaker 2: can't gain momentum. And so many times then in these

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Speaker 2: decision making processes, and by the way, right right now

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Speaker 2: we're talking about the presidency, which is huge, but this

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Speaker 2: happens in boardrooms, this happens in corporate decision makings, This

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Speaker 2: happens everywhere when everyone is thinking something privately but they

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Speaker 2: can't say it publicly because they're too afraid of the repercussions.

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Speaker 2: And the calculus just doesn't work out if we put

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Speaker 2: it in our game theoretical framework. Right, you start looking

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Speaker 2: at the payoff matrix and you say, okay, what's my

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Speaker 2: payoff matrix? If I'm the person who speaks out and

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Speaker 2: then people don't support me and all these things happen,

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Speaker 2: and then I'm the one who loses. And Biden is

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Speaker 2: actually playing into that because he's stacking it. He's explicitly saying, Okay,

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Speaker 2: your payoff matrix looks like shit because you know I'm

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Speaker 2: going to do this, and you don't want to be

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Speaker 2: the person who betrayed me, right, you don't want to

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Speaker 2: be Buddhists in this scenario.

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Speaker 3: Well, look, I don't think he's going to be president

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Speaker 3: for much longer. I'm not sure he's going to be

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Speaker 3: an influential political figure for much longer, or in good

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Speaker 3: health if he is already for much longer. Right, Look,

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Speaker 3: I have an article I'm running on I'll finish for

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Speaker 3: newsletter subscribers after we finished taping this podcast. I think

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Speaker 3: Biden has a weekend and it's running a pretty bad bluff.

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Speaker 3: And I think who select to go into politics tend

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Speaker 3: to be what I would call knits meeting there. We've

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Speaker 3: used that term before on the show, right, And it's

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Speaker 3: like a neurotic riskivers person, and elected Democrats are like

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Speaker 3: neurotic and riskivers and also very people pleasing. You advance

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Speaker 3: in the party by by building alliances and the different

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Speaker 3: constituents and commitments you have finding ways to balance those

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Speaker 3: pleasing donors, which sounds like the worst thing in the

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Speaker 3: world to me, right, to have like some rubber chicken

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Speaker 3: dinner where you're pleasing these donors who are rich but

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Speaker 3: have dumb opinions about politics most of the time.

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Speaker 2: Let's be honest, Yes, you know that sounds like that chicken,

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Speaker 2: especially public offer IPO chicken because when you go to

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Speaker 2: IPO dinners, they always serve this rubber chicken.

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Speaker 1: So yes, they have IPO chicken dinners.

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Speaker 3: That life sounds like torture to me. You couldn't fucking

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Speaker 3: pay me enough to be a fucking center or something

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Speaker 3: like that. However, it selects for people who are not

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Speaker 3: inclined to rock the boat. But look, there are several

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Speaker 3: things here. What is that Biden has Clearly the first

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Speaker 3: move was to get Biden to take a hint gently.

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Speaker 3: I mean, the first move is you hope that he

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Speaker 3: kind of is aware of the situation on his own right.

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Speaker 3: The first move is said, get Biden to take the

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Speaker 3: hit gently and then maybe not so quite so gently,

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Speaker 3: where you start to have anonymous leaks and then you

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Speaker 3: have backbenchers meaning relatively obscure members of Congress kind of saying, hey,

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Speaker 3: you should think about this. As far as I know,

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Speaker 3: as far as any reporting has suggested, there has not

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Speaker 3: been like a posse of senior leaders who has gone

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Speaker 3: to the White House and said, Joe, we're not fucking around.

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Speaker 3: You're gonna lose, You're gonna embarrass your party, You're gonna

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Speaker 3: embarrass your position in history. It's time to stand down.

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Speaker 3: So far as I know, that hasn't happened. Really, they

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Speaker 3: have kind of gone halfway up the escalatory spiral, but

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Speaker 3: they haven't really used their best ammunition yet. Never mind

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Speaker 3: these nuclear options like the conscious Clause or the twenty

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Speaker 3: fifth Amendment is an amendment to the US Constitution that

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Speaker 3: CanCERN if a president is unable to carry out his

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Speaker 3: duties and the cabinet can say that the vice president

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Speaker 3: ought to take over. I also think that like they

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Speaker 3: haven't fully played the Kamala Harris card, and I want

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Speaker 3: to talk about Harris in kind of the second half

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Speaker 3: of this segment. But like you know, one of the

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Speaker 3: ironies is that the Congressional Black Caucus has been what's

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Speaker 3: helped Biden to save ground, to salvage ground so far right,

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Speaker 3: I don't think there have been any Congressional Black Caucus

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Speaker 3: members who have come out yet and said that Biden

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Speaker 3: should step aside. There have been many who said that

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Speaker 3: he should not step aside, and so you know that

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Speaker 3: has been very helpful to him. But if Biden were

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Speaker 3: to step aside, the most likely replacement would be, you know,

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Speaker 3: the first woman president or the first woman. I guess,

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Speaker 3: you know, I know you would take over immediately, But like,

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Speaker 3: but Kamala Harris, who could become the first woman president

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Speaker 3: and a black woman and an Asian woman as well,

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Speaker 3: So it seems like I don't really buy. Look, my

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Speaker 3: preference is that you'd have some type of voter input,

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Speaker 3: more open nomination process. But like, it seems like, do

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Speaker 3: they really prefer Biden to a black vice president who

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Speaker 3: was at this point in her life much more capable

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Speaker 3: than he is? Right, eighty one year old Biden's not

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Speaker 3: more capable than Kamala Harris. I mean, he's not right,

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Speaker 3: he's not prosecuting the case against Trump. He's not capable

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Speaker 3: of like being up time when you need a potential crisis.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you can think Kamala Harris is a mediocre

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Speaker 3: at best politician, which I do, and she might not

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Speaker 3: be your cup of tea. But like, but it's just

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Speaker 3: a bizarre argument that like, you know, so I think

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Speaker 3: if if they said, Okay, we might not have enough

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Speaker 3: leverage to have this West Wing Aaron Sorkin fantasy convention,

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Speaker 3: that Nate Silver might like, right, do you not have

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Speaker 3: the leverage to say, let's agree that Kamala Harris is

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Speaker 3: a less bad option, right, she is capable of actually

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Speaker 3: prosecuting the case against Trump. You're not lying to the

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Speaker 3: American public about her fitness for office, and you know what,

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Speaker 3: she'll probably lose, but like, but Biden's probably gonna lose too. Like,

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Speaker 3: what's the world in which Biden wins that Harris doesn't win.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's like the world where Biden win, involved

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Speaker 3: world where the polling is so far off that we

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Speaker 3: don't know what I'm gonna begin with, or where like

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Speaker 3: Trump goes to jail or something, and like, like any

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Speaker 3: Democrat can win into those conditions, any any halfway competent democrat.

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Speaker 3: Maybe we're not gonna get more than a halfway competent option.

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Speaker 3: But like, I mean, look, we're in Nevada, not Nevada, right,

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Speaker 3: Nevada Nevada's And you see ads in Nevada because it's

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Speaker 3: a swing state, which New York is not. Saw some

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Speaker 3: Spanish language ad for example, where they're like, you know,

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Speaker 3: Joe Biden is very competent, he is a steady hand,

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Speaker 3: and like he does not have a steady hand. I

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Speaker 3: mean literally, I'm not sure he has a steady hand. Anymore.

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Speaker 3: I don't mean to diagnosed semtically, but like, but you

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Speaker 3: can't project we are the campaign that is just a

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Speaker 3: steady hand competence, no chaos anymore. Right, that cat is

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Speaker 3: out of the bag. It's too late for that. You're

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Speaker 3: selling people on a lie like it just you know,

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Speaker 3: the honest thing to do is to say, we chose

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Speaker 3: this woman to be vice president, and she has served

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Speaker 3: as vice president for three and a half years. Now,

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Speaker 3: at any moment she could become president. Joe Biden could

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Speaker 3: have a heart attack, there could be some type of

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Speaker 3: attack on whenever Joe Biden is located. We elected people

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Speaker 3: elected Kamala Harris to be vice president and clearly you're

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Speaker 3: in a situation where she is more fit to be

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Speaker 3: president than Biden over the next four years. And like,

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Speaker 3: what's it say about her or what's it say about

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Speaker 3: like how cynical the decision was, Like maybe you picked

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Speaker 3: her in June twenty twenty because you're in a period

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Speaker 3: summer twenty twenty when you're in a period where there's

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Speaker 3: a lot of this racial reckoning, so called right, but

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Speaker 3: she is a center from California, She's been in this

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Speaker 3: attorney right, she is like someone who I think is

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Speaker 3: generally regarded as being very smart and competent. The problems

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Speaker 3: were mostly the fact that like that, like politically she

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Speaker 3: wasn't a very compelling hand ain't unless have some upside potential,

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Speaker 3: But like, what is it saying that these people don't

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Speaker 3: trust her in a circumstance where she you know, I

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Speaker 3: think obviously it seems more fit for the job now,

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Speaker 3: let alone for four more years.

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Speaker 2: So what I but I actually so, I don't think

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Speaker 2: we're I don't think what we're seeing is as much

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Speaker 2: what it says about Kamala Harris. I think it's more

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Speaker 2: what we're saying about delusion and doubling down, and what's

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Speaker 2: going on psychologically with kind of with the Democratic Party

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Speaker 2: and with Biden himself. So I think there are a

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Speaker 2: few different real real fallacies happening here and real real issues.

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Speaker 2: The first is that Democrats are saying, you know, Biden

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Speaker 2: is a good man, like we can convince him to

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Speaker 2: step down by kind of these these subtle hence, these

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Speaker 2: subtle you know, he'll see the light. What they don't

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Speaker 2: understand is that when you attack someone's core identity, right

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Speaker 2: who they are, how they see themselves, what their reason

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Speaker 2: for being is. That does not work, and what ends

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Speaker 2: up happening is you double down and you really do

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Speaker 2: not see kind of the light. And I think that's

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Speaker 2: that's even worse with Biden right now, because he is

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Speaker 2: degrading a little bit when it comes to cognitive capacity.

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Speaker 2: We all know see the world through rose colored glasses,

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Speaker 2: you know, have this kind of better than average effect

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Speaker 2: where we think we're you know, better, et cetera, et cetera.

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Speaker 2: But in the case of someone who is president right,

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Speaker 2: who has that kind of hubris, who's been reinforced over

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Speaker 2: and over and over, that's going to be completely doubled.

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Speaker 2: I've wrote an article a number of years ago from

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Speaker 2: The New Yorker called I Don't Want to be Right,

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Speaker 2: and it's basically about how difficult it is to get

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Speaker 2: people to change their minds when the essence of who

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Speaker 2: they see themselves as is attacked. And so relying on

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Speaker 2: Biden and trying to appeal to his good nature to

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Speaker 2: step aside, that is not going to work. And we

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Speaker 2: see that actually backfiring right now. We see Biden saying,

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Speaker 2: you know, I'm not going to step aside. I'm going

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Speaker 2: to fight, and it's obviously not helped that he has

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Speaker 2: people around him like Hunter likes Joe Biden who are

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Speaker 2: telling him, Oh, no, this is great, this is wonderful.

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Speaker 2: And then the flip side of that is that you

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Speaker 2: have this party that is a.

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Speaker 1: Little bit kind of I don't know if diluted.

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Speaker 2: Is the right term. It's a little strong, but it

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Speaker 2: might be correct. So I think we've talked on the

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Speaker 2: pod before, maybe not about how I see the Trump

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Speaker 2: supporters as basically being cult followers, right, doesn't matter what happens,

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Speaker 2: They're in this cult. So they're going to rationalize everything away.

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Speaker 2: No red flags are actually red flags, and instead they're

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Speaker 2: going to kind of go through this cognitive dissonance reduction

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Speaker 2: so that they end up saying, no, this is still

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Speaker 2: the best candidate, this is wonderful, this is great, like

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Speaker 2: no matter what, we're voting for him. And I actually

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Speaker 2: see think we're seeing a little bit of that in

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Speaker 2: the Democratic Party, where it's not a cult, but it's

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Speaker 2: more like Stockholm syndrome ish where they're also rationalizing away

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Speaker 2: the red flags. And I think that actually intersects with

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Speaker 2: what you were talking about with the risk aversion factor,

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Speaker 2: because they're scared and they're scared of taking this kind

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Speaker 2: of this gamble. They're scared of doing something unprecedented, and

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Speaker 2: that is self reinforcing. So you have that, and then

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Speaker 2: you have the kind of the delusion of no, everything's

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Speaker 2: going to be okay. This isn't actually a red flag.

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Speaker 2: He just had a bad day. And the more you rationalize,

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Speaker 2: the easier it becomes to rationalize, and the more you

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Speaker 2: actually start believing that this is reality. Because in the

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Speaker 2: immediate aftermath of the debates, you were like, holy shit,

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Speaker 2: were fucked right, And then like the next day you're like, oh, well,

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Speaker 2: maybe it wasn't so bad. And then two days later

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Speaker 2: you're like, Okay, really it wasn't so bad. You know,

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Speaker 2: you kind of start rewriting history, you start rewriting the

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Speaker 2: way that you perceive it, and you end up in

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Speaker 2: this place where you're pretty divorced from reality. And that

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Speaker 2: is a really dangerous place to be. And I think

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Speaker 2: that might be kind of where we are right now.

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Speaker 3: So let's say I commission you some I'm Barack Obama,

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Speaker 3: right and you're my PhD Columbia psychologists, and I say

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Speaker 3: I need to devise a plan to get Joe fucking

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Speaker 3: Biden to quit, and I have a week to do

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Speaker 3: it before we reach the point of no return. I

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Speaker 3: can use any trick in the book, as long as

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Speaker 3: it's not illegal, any psychological trick in the book. What

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Speaker 3: is a plan to make Joe Biden think it's in

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Speaker 3: his best interest to quit? Or is it not a

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Speaker 3: matter of or is a matter of playing pure hardball?

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Speaker 1: Well?

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Speaker 2: I think I think that there can be too approaches

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Speaker 2: to it. First, I think you do need to be

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Speaker 2: completely straightforward with him and straightforward with the people around him. Right,

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Speaker 2: you need to sit Hunter and Jill down as well

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Speaker 2: and be like, stop fucking around, like this is bad, right,

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Speaker 2: and get that, get that out of the way. But

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Speaker 2: then I think you need to be straightforward with him,

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Speaker 2: and you need to do it in a way that

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Speaker 2: does not attack who he is, but actually reinforces it

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Speaker 2: and says, you know, you want to go down in

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Speaker 2: history as the great president who stopped Donald Trump. The

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Speaker 2: only way to do that is by stepping aside. These

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Speaker 2: are all the amazing things that you would be doing.

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Speaker 2: This does not make you look weak. It's not because

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Speaker 2: you're old. Of course, we know you're competent. Of course,

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Speaker 2: we know what you're doing the other people are idiots, though,

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Speaker 2: and you need to understand political perception. You need to understand,

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Speaker 2: you know, how people are reacting. They're not rational, but

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Speaker 2: it doesn't matter because you know that's who we're dealing with.

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Speaker 2: So you need to be the bigger man and do

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Speaker 2: the right thing. And you're smart enough to do it.

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Speaker 2: You're competent enough to do it. You know, you're brilliant,

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Speaker 2: use your brilliant mind to step aside and do the

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Speaker 2: strategically correct thing to save the country from the brink

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Speaker 2: of disaster. So you're doing several things right. You're playing

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Speaker 2: to his ego. You're not saying he's weak, you're not

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Speaker 2: saying he's too old, you're not saying you're not attacking

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Speaker 2: him in ways that make him feel attacked. And instead

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Speaker 2: you're trying to say, okay, how do you cement your legacy?

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Speaker 2: And honestly, I might even do something like pull the

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Speaker 2: RBG card and say, you know, let's let's look at RBG.

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Speaker 2: You know someone who was this absolutely brilliant mind.

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Speaker 3: Charles Carls Dickens film where the Ghost of RBG Comes.

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Speaker 2: From, the Ghost of RBG comes. You know, I can

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Speaker 2: dress up as RBG. You said, pull out all the stops, right,

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Speaker 2: we can get some CGI special effects and I might

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Speaker 2: be a little taller than she is, but you know,

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Speaker 2: we'll figure it out actually work.

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Speaker 3: Because Biden said, if the God Almighty came down right, Like,

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Speaker 3: I'm thinking there's like a twenty percent chance, like if

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Speaker 3: you actually stage that in the clever way, would actually work.

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Speaker 3: And I'm like, I had some vision and like, you know,

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Speaker 3: give him some stroom gummies. It's probably it's probably probably illegal.

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Speaker 3: I didn't mean to suggest that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so we're not going to do anything illegal, but yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean you could even pull that RBG card the

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Speaker 2: ghosts of the ghosts justice has passed and saying, you know,

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Speaker 2: I bet, like I actually bet that if we if

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Speaker 2: we got the ghost of RBG on the pod, she'd

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Speaker 2: regret her decision after she saw what happened. You know,

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Speaker 2: she was a smart woman. She just let her ego

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Speaker 2: get in the way. And I think that that's what's

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Speaker 2: happening here. And you can compare, I mean, if you compare, Biden, like,

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Speaker 2: I think the key also is to find other good

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Speaker 2: historical precedents of people who he admires and who he

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Speaker 2: thinks you know, are strong leaders who did something like this,

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Speaker 2: who you can be like. You know, you can be

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Speaker 2: like or you can be like RBG right, like you

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Speaker 2: can do you can do these things. And it's not

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Speaker 2: about you the whole thing, right, we always talk about

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Speaker 2: you look at all these presidential addresses over you know,

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Speaker 2: hundreds of years, and it's all about it's not about you,

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Speaker 2: it's about the country. It's about the greater good. And

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Speaker 2: so to try to kind of get to that and

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Speaker 2: have him hear it, and the only way he's going

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Speaker 2: to hear it is if he doesn't feel attacked, and

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Speaker 2: if he doesn't feel like you're disrespecting him, if he

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Speaker 2: doesn't feel billittled, if he doesn't feel like you're talking

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Speaker 2: to him like an old man. Because he does not

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Speaker 2: see himself that way, I think it's really important to

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Speaker 2: project to him the way that he sees himself. He

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Speaker 2: sees himself as still that young, capable senator who can

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Speaker 2: do anything. In the debate, that became very clear because

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Speaker 2: when he was asked, you know, what do you say

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Speaker 2: about the age about the age complaints, he was like, well,

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Speaker 2: I used to be the youngest, and everyone is complaining

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Speaker 2: about my age. Well, that doesn't answer the question, but

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Speaker 2: that actually gives you a really really interesting psychological lens

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Speaker 2: into what's going on in his head. In his mind,

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Speaker 2: he's still the youngest, he can still make it work.

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Speaker 2: He just has off days. He is doing that exact

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Speaker 2: same rationalization, and I think he truly truly believes it.

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Speaker 2: I do not think he thinks he's slipping, and he

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Speaker 2: can rationalize away like one bad day, et cetera, et cetera.

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Speaker 2: And if he actually has diminished cognitive capacity, then once

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Speaker 2: again it's going to be much that much more difficult

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Speaker 2: for him to see reality. So the way the best

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Speaker 2: con artists operate is to sell people the vision of

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Speaker 2: the world that they already believe is true. And so

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Speaker 2: here I'm suggesting we use the persuasion tactics of con

426
00:22:22,604 --> 00:22:26,644
Speaker 2: artists to try to gently get persuade Biden to do

427
00:22:26,804 --> 00:22:29,244
Speaker 2: what's best and make make him think that it's his

428
00:22:29,284 --> 00:22:32,604
Speaker 2: own idea. That's the other thing that they do. Right,

429
00:22:32,764 --> 00:22:35,204
Speaker 2: Instead of saying like give me your money, they make

430
00:22:35,284 --> 00:22:37,484
Speaker 2: me say, Nate, you know, I think you really want

431
00:22:37,564 --> 00:22:38,244
Speaker 2: to give me your money.

432
00:22:38,244 --> 00:22:39,644
Speaker 1: And you're like, hey, you know what, Maria, I.

433
00:22:39,684 --> 00:22:42,324
Speaker 2: Really want to give you my money, and so I

434
00:22:42,364 --> 00:22:44,404
Speaker 2: think that's what we need to do with Biden, so

435
00:22:44,484 --> 00:22:46,884
Speaker 2: that he ends up thinking himself, you know what, maybe

436
00:22:46,884 --> 00:22:48,844
Speaker 2: I do want to step down. Maybe this is really

437
00:22:48,844 --> 00:22:51,364
Speaker 2: for the best of everything, and maybe this is how

438
00:22:51,844 --> 00:22:54,084
Speaker 2: I cement my legacy as the great man that I

439
00:22:54,124 --> 00:22:55,204
Speaker 2: know that I am.

440
00:22:55,764 --> 00:22:58,404
Speaker 3: What's challenging is that you have two kind of games

441
00:22:59,564 --> 00:23:01,724
Speaker 3: in the sense of things that game theory might apply

442
00:23:01,804 --> 00:23:06,324
Speaker 3: to going on at once. On the one hand, you

443
00:23:06,364 --> 00:23:10,764
Speaker 3: have this private tactic that you're talking about, right, and

444
00:23:10,804 --> 00:23:14,524
Speaker 3: the senators, supposed to the representatives are mostly saying things like, well,

445
00:23:15,444 --> 00:23:18,164
Speaker 3: I was troubled the Susan Collins if you're a politics

446
00:23:18,524 --> 00:23:21,284
Speaker 3: and I was troubled by what I saw on the debate,

447
00:23:21,364 --> 00:23:23,524
Speaker 3: And I've gone back to my constituents to see what

448
00:23:23,564 --> 00:23:26,404
Speaker 3: they think. But I wouldn't want to make a decision

449
00:23:26,444 --> 00:23:28,724
Speaker 3: on behalf of Joe Biden, the greatest man who ever lived.

450
00:23:29,524 --> 00:23:30,964
Speaker 3: It's like that kind of shit, like that.

451
00:23:31,564 --> 00:23:32,684
Speaker 1: You should become a voice actor.

452
00:23:32,724 --> 00:23:36,604
Speaker 3: Okay, thank you, Maria. I think that's kind of maybe

453
00:23:36,604 --> 00:23:39,884
Speaker 3: the right play in terms of the psychology of it.

454
00:23:39,964 --> 00:23:40,084
Speaker 1: Right.

455
00:23:40,124 --> 00:23:42,724
Speaker 3: However, you also have this thing where all these Democrats

456
00:23:42,764 --> 00:23:45,324
Speaker 3: think Joe Biden should quit. And they have a collective

457
00:23:45,364 --> 00:23:49,164
Speaker 3: action problem and kind of a preference cascade problem where

458
00:23:49,324 --> 00:23:54,004
Speaker 3: people are acting differently than what they really think, you know.

459
00:23:54,524 --> 00:23:57,124
Speaker 3: And so what Biden did on Monday is they kind

460
00:23:57,164 --> 00:23:59,244
Speaker 3: of rounded up all of the people I think they

461
00:23:59,244 --> 00:24:02,444
Speaker 3: could who would go on record for whatever selfish or

462
00:24:02,524 --> 00:24:06,964
Speaker 3: unselfish reason or naive or not naive reason, you know,

463
00:24:07,084 --> 00:24:09,644
Speaker 3: AOC and all these Democrats kind of when I record

464
00:24:09,684 --> 00:24:11,524
Speaker 3: instead of course he has to be our nominee. It's

465
00:24:11,844 --> 00:24:13,604
Speaker 3: not actually that many as a share of the caucus,

466
00:24:13,644 --> 00:24:16,284
Speaker 3: but like, you know, but they're not worried about the

467
00:24:16,284 --> 00:24:18,124
Speaker 3: preference cascade game. They're coming out and saying what they

468
00:24:18,124 --> 00:24:20,084
Speaker 3: actually think, or maybe actually they're saying things that they

469
00:24:20,124 --> 00:24:22,884
Speaker 3: don't actually believe but like but that they don't bear

470
00:24:22,924 --> 00:24:25,364
Speaker 3: as much of a personal cost, or at least they

471
00:24:25,364 --> 00:24:28,484
Speaker 3: don't think so, or or the presidents calling in favors

472
00:24:28,564 --> 00:24:31,884
Speaker 3: or whatever else. So he made this aggressive move to

473
00:24:32,004 --> 00:24:35,324
Speaker 3: like reverse this momentum and staunch the bleeding for how

474
00:24:35,364 --> 00:24:37,604
Speaker 3: long I don't know. I mean, the fundamental problem is

475
00:24:37,644 --> 00:24:39,724
Speaker 3: that he doesn't have the goods, right, He doesn't have

476
00:24:39,724 --> 00:24:43,084
Speaker 3: the goods to run a normal campaign, and his slim chances,

477
00:24:43,084 --> 00:24:46,604
Speaker 3: which aren't zero, but slim rests on you know, something

478
00:24:46,644 --> 00:24:49,044
Speaker 3: about the information environment that we don't understand, or something

479
00:24:49,044 --> 00:24:51,644
Speaker 3: that hasn't happened yet, some other dilemma that makes Trump

480
00:24:51,964 --> 00:24:55,204
Speaker 3: even know nothing seems to change Trump's numbers. On principle,

481
00:24:55,204 --> 00:24:58,124
Speaker 3: you could imagine. I'm not sure what that way now.

482
00:24:58,124 --> 00:24:59,924
Speaker 1: I can't. I can't imagine anything on principle.

483
00:25:00,044 --> 00:25:02,684
Speaker 2: But I actually thought about one other thing that is

484
00:25:02,724 --> 00:25:06,164
Speaker 2: happening right now that we've talked about before in a

485
00:25:06,204 --> 00:25:09,404
Speaker 2: past episode that can be a data point for people

486
00:25:09,644 --> 00:25:13,724
Speaker 2: to use with Biden and was convincing him that sometimes

487
00:25:13,724 --> 00:25:17,524
Speaker 2: these gambles pay off. Macron and France like, holy shit,

488
00:25:17,804 --> 00:25:20,084
Speaker 2: you know what happened in the second round of elections

489
00:25:20,324 --> 00:25:23,564
Speaker 2: when when people thought the National Front was going to

490
00:25:23,604 --> 00:25:26,844
Speaker 2: sweep it and might become, you know, the majority, that

491
00:25:26,844 --> 00:25:30,524
Speaker 2: didn't happen, right, that it actually his gamble kind.

492
00:25:30,324 --> 00:25:33,684
Speaker 3: Of you know, we were we were a little bit wrong.

493
00:25:34,204 --> 00:25:35,124
Speaker 1: It kind of paid off.

494
00:25:35,164 --> 00:25:37,604
Speaker 2: I mean, we'll see, right, we'll see what happens. But

495
00:25:38,484 --> 00:25:41,644
Speaker 2: the country really came together to stop this threat, and

496
00:25:41,804 --> 00:25:45,484
Speaker 2: he did something completely unprecedented. You know, we we thought

497
00:25:45,484 --> 00:25:48,444
Speaker 2: that it was totally insane, and now we see that.

498
00:25:48,644 --> 00:25:52,244
Speaker 2: Oh wow, Like it's not it's not just because the

499
00:25:52,284 --> 00:25:56,004
Speaker 2: country actually are in le Pen got like thirty nine

500
00:25:56,004 --> 00:25:58,204
Speaker 2: percent of the vote by far the largest.

501
00:25:58,644 --> 00:26:03,164
Speaker 3: Absolutely, absolutely, But however, predicted adults in the room acted

502
00:26:03,244 --> 00:26:05,444
Speaker 3: like adults, and they said, what happens. You had very

503
00:26:05,524 --> 00:26:09,044
Speaker 3: high turnout in all these constituencies, So like three candidates

504
00:26:09,124 --> 00:26:11,524
Speaker 3: qual five for the ballot. You'd often have a right

505
00:26:11,564 --> 00:26:14,924
Speaker 3: wing candidate, a centrist and elect wing candidate and the

506
00:26:15,044 --> 00:26:18,644
Speaker 3: left in the center agree that in every constituency where

507
00:26:18,644 --> 00:26:21,484
Speaker 3: one of us finished their third place, right, if it's first,

508
00:26:21,524 --> 00:26:24,524
Speaker 3: two will battle it out, right, but like if one finished.

509
00:26:25,964 --> 00:26:29,964
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it worked, actually worked, They did it. They

510
00:26:30,004 --> 00:26:30,644
Speaker 2: had the third.

511
00:26:30,444 --> 00:26:34,084
Speaker 3: Bar twenty twenty in an amnic way when Democrats said,

512
00:26:34,764 --> 00:26:37,284
Speaker 3: we are in the middle of an impending pandemic and

513
00:26:37,324 --> 00:26:40,404
Speaker 3: we don't want to really left wing nomine like Bernie.

514
00:26:40,444 --> 00:26:42,924
Speaker 3: And you can say that was the wrong decision or

515
00:26:43,004 --> 00:26:45,564
Speaker 3: unfair to Bernie, but they did get Biden elected and

516
00:26:45,604 --> 00:26:48,404
Speaker 3: they were able to like close down that primary pretty quickly.

517
00:26:48,444 --> 00:26:51,404
Speaker 3: And so like you know, the notion that Biden is

518
00:26:51,404 --> 00:26:53,524
Speaker 3: like running some anti elite campaign. First of all, he

519
00:26:53,564 --> 00:26:57,204
Speaker 3: calls into like fucking like mourning Joe the like breakfast

520
00:26:57,204 --> 00:27:01,884
Speaker 3: cereal of like the most elite political elites in the country,

521
00:27:02,084 --> 00:27:05,044
Speaker 3: right to complain about how I mean it's very Trumpian

522
00:27:05,124 --> 00:27:08,444
Speaker 3: or Nixonian. It's Trumpian. I mean, it's not like I'm

523
00:27:08,484 --> 00:27:11,324
Speaker 3: not playing around with this. I'm being fucking both sides.

524
00:27:11,524 --> 00:27:13,644
Speaker 3: I think. I think Joe Biden has acted more and

525
00:27:13,644 --> 00:27:15,844
Speaker 3: more like Richard Dixon and Donald Trump in recent days.

526
00:27:16,804 --> 00:27:19,764
Speaker 3: But like you know, he was appointed to positions by

527
00:27:19,764 --> 00:27:23,364
Speaker 3: decisions made by elites. He finished in eighth place in

528
00:27:23,404 --> 00:27:26,404
Speaker 3: the two thousand and eight Democratic primary or something, and

529
00:27:26,284 --> 00:27:29,604
Speaker 3: and Barack Obama appointed him as his vice president. Right

530
00:27:29,804 --> 00:27:32,044
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty, there was an intervention on his behalf.

531
00:27:32,084 --> 00:27:34,604
Speaker 3: I think he might have eventually won maybe anyway, it

532
00:27:34,724 --> 00:27:37,204
Speaker 3: was probably pretty close between him and burning other people.

533
00:27:37,364 --> 00:27:39,404
Speaker 3: But there was an intervention by all these party elites

534
00:27:39,404 --> 00:27:42,444
Speaker 3: to like Maximiz's chances as much as possible. So who

535
00:27:42,444 --> 00:27:43,924
Speaker 3: the fuck is he is to think that he didn't

536
00:27:44,284 --> 00:27:47,004
Speaker 3: earn this for being like the most impressive order or

537
00:27:47,044 --> 00:27:49,244
Speaker 3: in America or the smartest person, right, I mean, if

538
00:27:49,244 --> 00:27:51,404
Speaker 3: we're being fucking honest, like of the of the forty

539
00:27:51,404 --> 00:27:53,284
Speaker 3: six hownty persons that it's at forty six, I'm losing

540
00:27:53,284 --> 00:27:55,804
Speaker 3: my train to that. Yeah. Yes, in terms of what

541
00:27:55,884 --> 00:27:58,524
Speaker 3: he's accomplished outside of politics, he's like not in the

542
00:27:58,604 --> 00:28:00,364
Speaker 3: upper half of like no.

543
00:28:00,764 --> 00:28:02,764
Speaker 2: But he but if you say this to him, like

544
00:28:02,884 --> 00:28:05,284
Speaker 2: in his mind, he will have rewritten history, right, Like

545
00:28:05,484 --> 00:28:08,044
Speaker 2: that's the way that self serving bias works, especially when

546
00:28:08,044 --> 00:28:11,484
Speaker 2: you're in that position of power and you get that reinforced.

547
00:28:11,564 --> 00:28:13,564
Speaker 2: He does not remember that it wasn't him. He does

548
00:28:13,604 --> 00:28:16,284
Speaker 2: not remember that he finished aith. I mean, obviously he remembers,

549
00:28:16,644 --> 00:28:19,604
Speaker 2: but he has already rationalized a bit away as I

550
00:28:19,684 --> 00:28:22,124
Speaker 2: was always the best choice. I was going to win regardless.

551
00:28:22,284 --> 00:28:24,444
Speaker 2: But what the Democrats need to remember is they made

552
00:28:24,484 --> 00:28:27,164
Speaker 2: it happen. Right, So let's forget Biden. Like he's not

553
00:28:27,244 --> 00:28:30,324
Speaker 2: gonna he's gonna say like I made it happen. But

554
00:28:30,364 --> 00:28:33,364
Speaker 2: what the party needs to understand is that collective action

555
00:28:33,564 --> 00:28:35,644
Speaker 2: is actually possible. And we just saw it in France,

556
00:28:35,844 --> 00:28:39,404
Speaker 2: where that coordination worked and the fact that the candidates

557
00:28:39,444 --> 00:28:41,604
Speaker 2: worked together, that they put aside their egos, that they

558
00:28:41,604 --> 00:28:44,204
Speaker 2: stepped aside, you know, that they did what was right,

559
00:28:44,244 --> 00:28:47,244
Speaker 2: and that, as you said, they behaved like adults. Why

560
00:28:47,284 --> 00:28:50,804
Speaker 2: can't our country behave like adults. They're behaving like fucking children.

561
00:28:51,164 --> 00:28:54,964
Speaker 2: Like it's really like both parties and you, you know

562
00:28:55,044 --> 00:28:56,964
Speaker 2: what you said. The reason that I started saying that

563
00:28:57,164 --> 00:28:59,404
Speaker 2: some of the things I was saying about connartists and cults,

564
00:28:59,404 --> 00:29:02,764
Speaker 2: et cetera, and Trump, I'm now applying to the Democrats,

565
00:29:02,964 --> 00:29:05,604
Speaker 2: that is because I kind of agree with you that

566
00:29:05,644 --> 00:29:10,964
Speaker 2: Biden is acting in those ways more right now than

567
00:29:11,404 --> 00:29:13,084
Speaker 2: he ever has in the past. And of course all

568
00:29:13,164 --> 00:29:16,044
Speaker 2: politicians have a little bit of kind of that bent

569
00:29:16,244 --> 00:29:18,204
Speaker 2: to them because you have to convince people to do

570
00:29:18,284 --> 00:29:23,164
Speaker 2: things all the time. But he now is becoming increasingly

571
00:29:23,204 --> 00:29:27,324
Speaker 2: divorced from reality and from what's going on. And as

572
00:29:27,364 --> 00:29:31,044
Speaker 2: soon as your decisions become driven by ego as opposed to,

573
00:29:31,764 --> 00:29:34,804
Speaker 2: you know, by what you should be doing as a

574
00:29:34,844 --> 00:29:37,844
Speaker 2: politician the country, et cetera, et cetera, that's when things

575
00:29:38,164 --> 00:29:41,124
Speaker 2: start to go wrong. So I but, as I said,

576
00:29:41,364 --> 00:29:44,004
Speaker 2: let's let's call on the Democratic Party to actually remember

577
00:29:44,044 --> 00:29:47,524
Speaker 2: who got him there, and that they are capable of

578
00:29:47,884 --> 00:29:50,884
Speaker 2: doing big things like this, and that we now we

579
00:29:51,004 --> 00:29:54,604
Speaker 2: see evidence that this works, and it's worked in other countries,

580
00:29:54,644 --> 00:29:57,884
Speaker 2: and it's worked in our country, and why not try

581
00:29:57,924 --> 00:30:01,364
Speaker 2: it again? Because yeah, it might not work, but what

582
00:30:01,444 --> 00:30:03,284
Speaker 2: we're doing right now shures hell ain't working.

583
00:30:04,364 --> 00:30:08,764
Speaker 3: Yeah. Look, if he is not able to process this,

584
00:30:08,804 --> 00:30:10,404
Speaker 3: then maybe we should to book the twenty fifth Amendment.

585
00:30:10,404 --> 00:30:12,044
Speaker 3: I mean it's kind of like, you know, I don't

586
00:30:12,364 --> 00:30:16,444
Speaker 3: like the people around Biden. With them, would you play

587
00:30:16,444 --> 00:30:18,284
Speaker 3: hardball or is that still about it? Because if for me,

588
00:30:18,844 --> 00:30:21,084
Speaker 3: I'd be like, first of all, every fucking piece of

589
00:30:21,084 --> 00:30:22,244
Speaker 3: dirt that we have on he was going to come

590
00:30:22,244 --> 00:30:24,124
Speaker 3: out unless he quits in a week, right, Yeah.

591
00:30:24,204 --> 00:30:26,564
Speaker 2: Okay, So the people the people around Biden are different

592
00:30:26,564 --> 00:30:29,004
Speaker 2: from Biden. With them, I would play hardball. With Biden,

593
00:30:29,044 --> 00:30:31,604
Speaker 2: I wouldn't be you know, I would start off with

594
00:30:31,684 --> 00:30:34,684
Speaker 2: the strategy that I already that I already outlined. The

595
00:30:34,684 --> 00:30:37,524
Speaker 2: people around Biden, that's totally different. Yeah, with them, you

596
00:30:37,604 --> 00:30:40,404
Speaker 2: absolutely play hardball. And this is where you just go

597
00:30:40,524 --> 00:30:42,044
Speaker 2: down and dirty and you do what you need to

598
00:30:42,084 --> 00:30:45,084
Speaker 2: do to get them to act and to actually light

599
00:30:45,124 --> 00:30:47,524
Speaker 2: a fire under their asses so that they do what

600
00:30:47,684 --> 00:30:49,684
Speaker 2: needs to be done for the good of the country,

601
00:30:49,684 --> 00:30:52,364
Speaker 2: because right now, you know, they've been left alone and

602
00:30:52,364 --> 00:30:55,604
Speaker 2: that's not working. Whatever's happening right now is not working.

603
00:30:55,924 --> 00:31:00,044
Speaker 3: I do wonder if you're some senior Biden's staffer. Right,

604
00:31:00,124 --> 00:31:02,844
Speaker 3: what if you turn out to be the whistleblower and

605
00:31:02,884 --> 00:31:04,964
Speaker 3: you write an not that for the New York Times

606
00:31:06,164 --> 00:31:08,204
Speaker 3: and go on all the TV shows, come on this

607
00:31:08,244 --> 00:31:13,244
Speaker 3: podcast and say Biden is not fit to be president.

608
00:31:13,924 --> 00:31:15,564
Speaker 3: We've been propping it. We put it a much more

609
00:31:15,604 --> 00:31:18,164
Speaker 3: diplomatic way. Obviously Biden was a great man, right, but

610
00:31:18,244 --> 00:31:20,964
Speaker 3: as as time has evolved, he has had more and

611
00:31:21,004 --> 00:31:23,804
Speaker 3: more challenges with day to day tasks. And I cannot

612
00:31:23,924 --> 00:31:27,164
Speaker 3: get conscious not convey this to the American people anymore, Right,

613
00:31:27,204 --> 00:31:28,764
Speaker 3: And I think he should step aside and let his

614
00:31:28,844 --> 00:31:33,884
Speaker 3: extremely talented elected Vice president Kamala Harris be the nominee instead. Right,

615
00:31:34,524 --> 00:31:37,484
Speaker 3: First of all, if if your cards play right, you

616
00:31:37,524 --> 00:31:39,564
Speaker 3: might look like a genius for doing that. Although there's

617
00:31:39,604 --> 00:31:43,884
Speaker 3: one other problem, which is that, like if let's say

618
00:31:43,924 --> 00:31:46,564
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris has like a I'm going to give you

619
00:31:46,604 --> 00:31:47,924
Speaker 3: if you've listened this far, and I'm gonna give you

620
00:31:48,004 --> 00:31:51,444
Speaker 3: some numbers. Right, Let's say she has a thirty five

621
00:31:51,524 --> 00:31:54,844
Speaker 3: or forty percent chance to win, and Biden has a

622
00:31:55,124 --> 00:31:57,124
Speaker 3: twenty percent chance to win if he if he's forced

623
00:31:57,124 --> 00:31:58,924
Speaker 3: to stay in, Right, I think it might.

624
00:31:58,804 --> 00:32:02,964
Speaker 2: Be high, but these numbers, Yeah, I was going to say,

625
00:32:02,964 --> 00:32:04,484
Speaker 2: are these numbers based on your model?

626
00:32:04,924 --> 00:32:07,164
Speaker 3: The models is twenty nine percent. But there's one big

627
00:32:07,204 --> 00:32:09,204
Speaker 3: problem with that, which is a model assumes that like

628
00:32:10,644 --> 00:32:13,044
Speaker 3: Joe Biden is capable of running the type of campaigns,

629
00:32:13,524 --> 00:32:15,444
Speaker 3: running the type of campaign that feeds a data in

630
00:32:15,484 --> 00:32:17,884
Speaker 3: the model. Right, if you took Joe Biden right now

631
00:32:17,924 --> 00:32:20,964
Speaker 3: in a hole and replaced him with an average Democrat

632
00:32:21,364 --> 00:32:24,684
Speaker 3: John Kerry, maybe Joe Biden twenty twenty, who was notably

633
00:32:24,684 --> 00:32:28,084
Speaker 3: a better performer, right, you know, if you put like

634
00:32:28,124 --> 00:32:31,724
Speaker 3: an average Democrat in his shoes, Hubert h Humphrey or something,

635
00:32:33,244 --> 00:32:35,764
Speaker 3: then I think twenty nine percent, the most recent reading,

636
00:32:37,284 --> 00:32:40,764
Speaker 3: you know, might be reasonable. However, I don't think he's

637
00:32:40,804 --> 00:32:42,884
Speaker 3: capable of running a normal campaign at all. He hasn't

638
00:32:42,924 --> 00:32:46,244
Speaker 3: been so far. Every media cycle has been distracted, was

639
00:32:46,244 --> 00:32:47,964
Speaker 3: going to turn into a distruction about like his age

640
00:32:47,964 --> 00:32:51,524
Speaker 3: and performance and things like that. There's another debate coming up,

641
00:32:52,604 --> 00:32:54,644
Speaker 3: so like, I think the chances might be if i'm

642
00:32:54,884 --> 00:32:57,684
Speaker 3: you know, if i'm kind of I mean, my gut

643
00:32:57,724 --> 00:33:00,284
Speaker 3: is the chancellor zero right now. I don't weigh my

644
00:33:00,284 --> 00:33:02,804
Speaker 3: gut that heavily. My gut is like, there's just no

645
00:33:02,844 --> 00:33:04,804
Speaker 3: fucking way then America is gonna like this guy for

646
00:33:04,804 --> 00:33:08,324
Speaker 3: another four years, just fundamentally untenable. And he's already behind.

647
00:33:08,364 --> 00:33:11,324
Speaker 3: Now he's fallen further behind. So if I average twenty

648
00:33:11,364 --> 00:33:13,204
Speaker 3: nine percent zero, then you get in the fifteen percent

649
00:33:13,324 --> 00:33:17,804
Speaker 3: range or whatever. Right, a kind of balancing head and model.

650
00:33:17,844 --> 00:33:19,924
Speaker 3: And the reason why in this case I think it's

651
00:33:19,964 --> 00:33:22,404
Speaker 3: important not to go up pure model is that there's

652
00:33:22,404 --> 00:33:25,044
Speaker 3: not a precedent in circumstance for this, right, there's not

653
00:33:25,084 --> 00:33:29,684
Speaker 3: a circumstance where like the canon is so obviously not

654
00:33:29,804 --> 00:33:33,084
Speaker 3: ready to run a normal campaign anymore. And I think

655
00:33:33,124 --> 00:33:35,924
Speaker 3: also like in a more technical matter, like we still

656
00:33:35,964 --> 00:33:39,244
Speaker 3: haven't had that much high quality state polling since a debate,

657
00:33:39,564 --> 00:33:41,284
Speaker 3: the model's being a little bit conservativebout it. So I

658
00:33:41,324 --> 00:33:45,084
Speaker 3: bet on the model being twenty five percent anyway, that's

659
00:33:45,084 --> 00:33:47,724
Speaker 3: where I get to, like fifteen or twenty percent. I

660
00:33:47,804 --> 00:33:49,764
Speaker 3: think it's not zero, but like in Harris, I think

661
00:33:49,844 --> 00:33:51,884
Speaker 3: might be double that roughly.

662
00:33:51,964 --> 00:33:55,724
Speaker 2: Which is huge, by the way, even if we're below

663
00:33:55,924 --> 00:33:58,444
Speaker 2: fifty percent, double Biden is huge.

664
00:33:58,884 --> 00:34:00,444
Speaker 3: A lot of Marie on the turn picked up a

665
00:34:00,484 --> 00:34:02,244
Speaker 3: lot of outs or hand looked back exactly. It picked

666
00:34:02,284 --> 00:34:04,364
Speaker 3: up like a straight fluster on the turn. Not too

667
00:34:04,444 --> 00:34:04,884
Speaker 3: bad badly.

668
00:34:05,244 --> 00:34:06,604
Speaker 1: Now we have a combo draw.

669
00:34:06,644 --> 00:34:09,964
Speaker 3: Combo draw, maybe even heading a pair. Maybe we hit

670
00:34:10,004 --> 00:34:11,844
Speaker 3: that queen and the combo draw. Maybe that would be good.

671
00:34:11,884 --> 00:34:12,364
Speaker 3: You never know.

672
00:34:13,124 --> 00:34:17,244
Speaker 2: Absolutely, yeah, absolutely, and and so so I think that

673
00:34:18,524 --> 00:34:20,524
Speaker 2: it seems to me, you know, last time we were

674
00:34:20,524 --> 00:34:24,564
Speaker 2: talking about different options, I think that we agree that

675
00:34:24,684 --> 00:34:28,604
Speaker 2: Kamala is kind of the best option given given where

676
00:34:28,644 --> 00:34:32,044
Speaker 2: we are, just in terms of the fact that you know,

677
00:34:32,124 --> 00:34:34,364
Speaker 2: she has all the machinery in place, she has all

678
00:34:34,404 --> 00:34:36,764
Speaker 2: of the funds in place. You know, she gets to

679
00:34:36,844 --> 00:34:39,164
Speaker 2: use the however many like ninety one million dollars.

680
00:34:39,244 --> 00:34:41,044
Speaker 3: I don't want the machinery the best part of kom

681
00:34:41,124 --> 00:34:43,724
Speaker 3: Will you get rid of this fucking incompetent Biden staffers? Right?

682
00:34:43,724 --> 00:34:46,164
Speaker 2: Absolutely, But but she gets to use the money that

683
00:34:46,204 --> 00:34:49,164
Speaker 2: has been you that has been raised for the for

684
00:34:49,204 --> 00:34:50,564
Speaker 2: the Biden Harris ticket.

685
00:34:50,844 --> 00:34:52,764
Speaker 1: She gets to use kind of she she.

686
00:34:52,844 --> 00:34:57,124
Speaker 2: Is already someone who doesn't need to start from not zero,

687
00:34:57,324 --> 00:35:00,124
Speaker 2: but from a from a much lower point. And right now,

688
00:35:00,244 --> 00:35:03,804
Speaker 2: you know, getting to that double Biden's numbers seems to

689
00:35:03,804 --> 00:35:06,964
Speaker 2: be a victory. But I think we should be taking

690
00:35:07,084 --> 00:35:09,284
Speaker 2: every edge, right, take every edge you get.

691
00:35:10,564 --> 00:35:14,964
Speaker 3: But let's say that kam Leg gets nominated and the

692
00:35:15,164 --> 00:35:18,084
Speaker 3: sixty percent chance roughly that she loses got someone that

693
00:35:18,124 --> 00:35:22,844
Speaker 3: plays out in our world. I guess you look bad then, right,

694
00:35:22,884 --> 00:35:24,764
Speaker 3: because then you're like, well, you know, Joe, if only

695
00:35:24,844 --> 00:35:27,644
Speaker 3: Joe Biden had stayed in I mean, this is but

696
00:35:27,724 --> 00:35:29,924
Speaker 3: this is where like this, I think people are not

697
00:35:30,204 --> 00:35:36,644
Speaker 3: willing to admit the untenability of the situation that like,

698
00:35:37,004 --> 00:35:41,564
Speaker 3: I mean Biden again, the things that would allow him

699
00:35:41,564 --> 00:35:44,524
Speaker 3: to win are things that would allow any Democrat.

700
00:35:44,124 --> 00:35:45,164
Speaker 1: Anyone win, to win.

701
00:35:45,644 --> 00:35:47,604
Speaker 3: I mean, look and look, I wrote some the New

702
00:35:47,684 --> 00:35:51,604
Speaker 3: York Times last week. If you compare Democrats polling and

703
00:35:51,644 --> 00:35:55,284
Speaker 3: Senate races to Biden, they are doing better in literally

704
00:35:55,404 --> 00:35:58,524
Speaker 3: every single poll, literally every single pole in a say

705
00:35:58,564 --> 00:36:00,604
Speaker 3: it's both a swing state. They're tied in one excuse me,

706
00:36:00,644 --> 00:36:03,884
Speaker 3: out of like fifty poles. Democrats are actually doing pretty

707
00:36:03,884 --> 00:36:07,204
Speaker 3: fucking well down the ballot. It's Biden that's the problem.

708
00:36:07,364 --> 00:36:09,524
Speaker 3: The reason that's a problem is because he's eighty eighty

709
00:36:09,564 --> 00:36:14,444
Speaker 3: one years old and is in rapid decline. I think, yeah,

710
00:36:14,444 --> 00:36:16,884
Speaker 3: that's obvious to anyone with a fucking brain and like

711
00:36:17,124 --> 00:36:20,244
Speaker 3: it just you can't sell that much of a shit

712
00:36:20,324 --> 00:36:23,804
Speaker 3: sandwich to voters. It's not something you can compartmentalize because

713
00:36:23,804 --> 00:36:25,684
Speaker 3: it gets into the very way that he speaks, the

714
00:36:25,804 --> 00:36:27,764
Speaker 3: very way that he conducts the business of the White House.

715
00:36:28,004 --> 00:36:30,084
Speaker 3: It's not like he you know, it's not like he

716
00:36:30,124 --> 00:36:33,684
Speaker 3: screwed some intern and then and you can put that

717
00:36:33,724 --> 00:36:34,364
Speaker 3: out of your mind.

718
00:36:34,604 --> 00:36:39,124
Speaker 2: Right. No, this is fundamentally the person making our national

719
00:36:39,204 --> 00:36:43,124
Speaker 2: security decisions, right This is the person who is reacting

720
00:36:43,204 --> 00:36:46,644
Speaker 2: in times of crisis. This is the person who we

721
00:36:46,724 --> 00:36:50,364
Speaker 2: turn to for the major executive decisions that matter. And

722
00:36:50,404 --> 00:36:55,924
Speaker 2: you need someone with very clear executive making capacity, which

723
00:36:55,964 --> 00:36:58,644
Speaker 2: I think right now he lacks. Now, of course, I'm

724
00:36:58,764 --> 00:37:00,884
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna say this goes without saying because a

725
00:37:00,884 --> 00:37:02,764
Speaker 2: lot of people are like the what about is and

726
00:37:02,884 --> 00:37:05,004
Speaker 2: with well what about Trump? Yeah, of course, like Trump

727
00:37:05,084 --> 00:37:07,604
Speaker 2: lacks it too. Trump should step aside, blah blah blah.

728
00:37:07,444 --> 00:37:10,564
Speaker 2: That ain't happening, So like let's let's not let's not

729
00:37:10,604 --> 00:37:12,644
Speaker 2: worry about that. To the people listening right now and

730
00:37:12,724 --> 00:37:15,684
Speaker 2: being like, well, you know, what about No, not what about?

731
00:37:15,724 --> 00:37:17,244
Speaker 1: Like Trump is awful?

732
00:37:17,844 --> 00:37:20,564
Speaker 2: He can't think clearly, He's you know, he's too old,

733
00:37:20,884 --> 00:37:23,004
Speaker 2: he has cognitive problems. We don't want him with the

734
00:37:23,044 --> 00:37:26,444
Speaker 2: nuclear codes, you know, he but he is not stepping aside.

735
00:37:26,524 --> 00:37:28,964
Speaker 2: So so that's just going to I just want to

736
00:37:29,004 --> 00:37:30,444
Speaker 2: like get that, get that out of the way.

737
00:37:30,844 --> 00:37:33,444
Speaker 3: Look, if you detect like a little peak in my tone,

738
00:37:33,484 --> 00:37:36,244
Speaker 3: in Maria's tone today, I mean there's two things. Like one,

739
00:37:36,324 --> 00:37:40,684
Speaker 3: I'm just offended by strategic stupidity and high stake situations right, although,

740
00:37:40,964 --> 00:37:42,644
Speaker 3: to be fair, we don't know what individual motives are

741
00:37:42,684 --> 00:37:47,404
Speaker 3: and that gets complicated. But also like I feel angry

742
00:37:47,924 --> 00:37:51,804
Speaker 3: as a voter that I am not offered an acceptable alternative.

743
00:37:51,844 --> 00:37:53,284
Speaker 3: I said last week, I'm not going to vote. I'm

744
00:37:53,284 --> 00:37:54,764
Speaker 3: not going to vote for Biden. I'm not in a

745
00:37:54,764 --> 00:37:57,004
Speaker 3: swing state. I don't know because.

746
00:37:56,764 --> 00:37:59,084
Speaker 1: I'm in Nevada. Yeah, and he's come.

747
00:37:59,644 --> 00:38:01,764
Speaker 2: But I hope that I don't have to write I

748
00:38:01,804 --> 00:38:03,884
Speaker 2: really really hope that I'll be voting for Harris or

749
00:38:03,924 --> 00:38:07,684
Speaker 2: for for whoever replaces him. I truly hope that, because

750
00:38:08,044 --> 00:38:10,204
Speaker 2: you know, of course I will vote for Biden, but

751
00:38:10,604 --> 00:38:12,644
Speaker 2: I do it kind of with a heavy heart because

752
00:38:13,204 --> 00:38:16,284
Speaker 2: I don't want Trump to win. So let's just say,

753
00:38:16,564 --> 00:38:19,124
Speaker 2: let's just put it out there, there's no way that

754
00:38:19,484 --> 00:38:22,164
Speaker 2: Trump is withdrawing from the race. That just ain't happening.

755
00:38:22,444 --> 00:38:26,764
Speaker 2: So there's only one party that exists that has the

756
00:38:26,804 --> 00:38:30,604
Speaker 2: option of actually giving us a good candidate that we

757
00:38:30,724 --> 00:38:34,724
Speaker 2: want to vote for, and that's the Democrats. So please,

758
00:38:35,124 --> 00:38:39,124
Speaker 2: Joe Biden, now is the time be a hero withdraw

759
00:38:39,244 --> 00:38:40,804
Speaker 2: from the race and do it now.

760
00:38:41,844 --> 00:38:44,684
Speaker 3: Marie, I think I need something relaxing to talk about,

761
00:38:44,724 --> 00:38:47,284
Speaker 3: like high stakes pumper tournaments instead, let's do it.

762
00:39:05,364 --> 00:39:08,964
Speaker 2: We are in the middle of the largest main event

763
00:39:09,084 --> 00:39:12,524
Speaker 2: in World Series of Poker history night so records were

764
00:39:12,604 --> 00:39:17,444
Speaker 2: broken ten one hundred and twelve something like that. People,

765
00:39:19,444 --> 00:39:21,844
Speaker 2: an insane number of people are out here in Vegas

766
00:39:22,324 --> 00:39:24,324
Speaker 2: going for that ten million dollar first prize.

767
00:39:24,404 --> 00:39:27,004
Speaker 3: So I'm of the roughly, what is it like sixty

768
00:39:27,004 --> 00:39:29,404
Speaker 3: five hundred of the ten and twelve that are no

769
00:39:29,444 --> 00:39:31,444
Speaker 3: longer in the tournament, you are in the four thousand

770
00:39:31,484 --> 00:39:33,924
Speaker 3: or something that are tell me about how it's gone

771
00:39:33,964 --> 00:39:34,564
Speaker 3: for you so far?

772
00:39:36,204 --> 00:39:36,724
Speaker 1: So far.

773
00:39:36,844 --> 00:39:39,324
Speaker 2: So we're about to start day three, so this means

774
00:39:39,324 --> 00:39:41,804
Speaker 2: that we're not in the money yet, so there's still

775
00:39:42,044 --> 00:39:44,724
Speaker 2: quite a ways to go until then. So far, the

776
00:39:45,124 --> 00:39:48,644
Speaker 2: tournament has been very up and down for me, but

777
00:39:48,804 --> 00:39:51,484
Speaker 2: I have I've not been running well, so Nate, I'm

778
00:39:51,524 --> 00:39:54,404
Speaker 2: keeping track of our prop bet and yesterday I actually

779
00:39:54,444 --> 00:39:58,524
Speaker 2: lost every single all in except for one tiny one,

780
00:39:59,404 --> 00:40:02,404
Speaker 2: so and I would get it and I was an

781
00:40:02,484 --> 00:40:05,844
Speaker 2: overwhelming favorite. I got two out of three times. My

782
00:40:05,924 --> 00:40:08,364
Speaker 2: table thought this was very, very amusing. But I kept

783
00:40:08,364 --> 00:40:12,844
Speaker 2: building back and being able to survive, and honestly, that's

784
00:40:12,884 --> 00:40:15,724
Speaker 2: the key. So right now I'm going to have about

785
00:40:15,724 --> 00:40:19,364
Speaker 2: fifty big lines heading into day three, which is totally fine, right,

786
00:40:19,404 --> 00:40:21,924
Speaker 2: It's solid, it's not huge. I'm not one of the

787
00:40:21,924 --> 00:40:23,924
Speaker 2: big stacks, but I'm not one of the micro stacks.

788
00:40:24,804 --> 00:40:27,884
Speaker 2: And what's really really important to remember in an event

789
00:40:27,924 --> 00:40:31,244
Speaker 2: like this, which lasts over many days, is survival matters.

790
00:40:31,604 --> 00:40:31,844
Speaker 1: Right.

791
00:40:32,084 --> 00:40:35,324
Speaker 2: It's one of these things where even if you don't

792
00:40:35,324 --> 00:40:37,204
Speaker 2: have a huge chip stack, as long as you have

793
00:40:37,244 --> 00:40:39,524
Speaker 2: some chips and as long as you pick your spots,

794
00:40:40,444 --> 00:40:42,764
Speaker 2: then you're in it. And of course this is poker,

795
00:40:42,804 --> 00:40:43,804
Speaker 2: so anything can happen.

796
00:40:44,164 --> 00:40:44,364
Speaker 1: You know.

797
00:40:44,724 --> 00:40:46,244
Speaker 2: I did have a couple of moments where I could

798
00:40:46,244 --> 00:40:48,244
Speaker 2: have been knocked out, and I took the more conservative

799
00:40:48,244 --> 00:40:51,684
Speaker 2: line and it served me well. And so I'm proud

800
00:40:51,724 --> 00:40:57,084
Speaker 2: of not of lasting through those but who knows. As

801
00:40:57,124 --> 00:40:59,524
Speaker 2: you get shallower, you know, when I have two hundred

802
00:40:59,564 --> 00:41:01,164
Speaker 2: big lines, it's much easier to avoid those.

803
00:41:01,164 --> 00:41:02,884
Speaker 1: It's much easier to find the fold.

804
00:41:02,844 --> 00:41:05,244
Speaker 2: When you have fifty and you have you know, said,

805
00:41:05,444 --> 00:41:07,724
Speaker 2: when you're in a situation like that, at some point

806
00:41:07,724 --> 00:41:08,364
Speaker 2: you can't fold.

807
00:41:08,724 --> 00:41:13,364
Speaker 3: It's a tricky tournament because on the one hand, there

808
00:41:13,404 --> 00:41:17,004
Speaker 3: are inclinations to be riskivers yourself. On the other hand,

809
00:41:17,044 --> 00:41:18,764
Speaker 3: everyone else thaks the same way, so it can kind

810
00:41:18,804 --> 00:41:22,324
Speaker 3: of like can kind of devolve into a game of

811
00:41:22,404 --> 00:41:23,804
Speaker 3: Chicken a little bit.

812
00:41:23,924 --> 00:41:24,164
Speaker 1: You know.

813
00:41:24,524 --> 00:41:26,564
Speaker 3: I was never getting very much going as far as

814
00:41:26,604 --> 00:41:29,924
Speaker 3: like hitting hands right. So mostly ups and downs involved

815
00:41:29,924 --> 00:41:32,244
Speaker 3: different types of bluffs. I tried to run, some successfully,

816
00:41:32,644 --> 00:41:35,364
Speaker 3: some not. But you can run pretty big bluffs in

817
00:41:35,404 --> 00:41:37,484
Speaker 3: the in the main event. People don't want to lose

818
00:41:37,484 --> 00:41:39,684
Speaker 3: all their chips and get and get knocked out. Yeah,

819
00:41:39,724 --> 00:41:41,324
Speaker 3: but yeah, I don't have a great narrative. I mean

820
00:41:41,364 --> 00:41:44,044
Speaker 3: I was kind of just you know, remaining very patient

821
00:41:45,444 --> 00:41:47,884
Speaker 3: because you can just like, oh, I lost like ten

822
00:41:47,924 --> 00:41:49,764
Speaker 3: pots in a row, and because you have so many chips,

823
00:41:49,764 --> 00:41:52,404
Speaker 3: and like you actually it's not affecting you all that much.

824
00:41:53,524 --> 00:41:55,884
Speaker 3: But at some point, kind of late on day two.

825
00:41:55,924 --> 00:41:57,644
Speaker 3: If you'd ever played the event, that's when the blinds

826
00:41:57,644 --> 00:42:00,724
Speaker 3: start to creep up enough. You know, goes from one

827
00:42:00,764 --> 00:42:03,204
Speaker 3: thousand big bline to fifteen hundred and then two thousand

828
00:42:03,324 --> 00:42:06,804
Speaker 3: in two levels. Right, that's a doubling in two levels.

829
00:42:06,844 --> 00:42:08,884
Speaker 3: And that's where a lot of people like me start

830
00:42:08,924 --> 00:42:11,924
Speaker 3: to get knocked out or in a situation where where

831
00:42:11,924 --> 00:42:15,564
Speaker 3: there was actually a cost to being patient, right where

832
00:42:15,604 --> 00:42:18,084
Speaker 3: it's like, yeah, I just you know, I went I

833
00:42:18,244 --> 00:42:20,004
Speaker 3: know if I wanted to technical about the terms, right,

834
00:42:20,004 --> 00:42:22,964
Speaker 3: but like I shoved, I went all in with with

835
00:42:23,004 --> 00:42:24,564
Speaker 3: the okay hand because I thought I had a lot

836
00:42:24,564 --> 00:42:26,204
Speaker 3: of full equity. I've been playing very tight. I thought

837
00:42:26,204 --> 00:42:28,444
Speaker 3: I had a good image. But you can have a

838
00:42:28,444 --> 00:42:30,524
Speaker 3: good image of the m the theifona has kings, then

839
00:42:30,844 --> 00:42:31,884
Speaker 3: it doesn't matterimes you.

840
00:42:32,004 --> 00:42:32,724
Speaker 1: Just run into it.

841
00:42:33,004 --> 00:42:34,804
Speaker 2: You know. Sometimes it's a good spot. You made the

842
00:42:34,884 --> 00:42:38,044
Speaker 2: right decision and they just have they just have it,

843
00:42:38,324 --> 00:42:40,564
Speaker 2: and those those situations are going to happen, and that

844
00:42:40,564 --> 00:42:41,924
Speaker 2: doesn't mean you made the wrong decision.

845
00:42:42,204 --> 00:42:42,364
Speaker 1: You know.

846
00:42:42,404 --> 00:42:46,324
Speaker 2: Once again, this is to go back to what we've

847
00:42:46,324 --> 00:42:48,044
Speaker 2: talked about a lot, and to tie this a little

848
00:42:48,044 --> 00:42:51,084
Speaker 2: bit back to politics. The process is what matters, and

849
00:42:51,164 --> 00:42:54,004
Speaker 2: you can't be you know, outcome oriented. If you made

850
00:42:54,004 --> 00:42:57,044
Speaker 2: the right decision for the right reasons, even if you

851
00:42:57,204 --> 00:42:59,884
Speaker 2: ended up losing, you can't be mad at yourself. So

852
00:43:00,164 --> 00:43:03,724
Speaker 2: you know, if you ran the right bluff, went all

853
00:43:03,764 --> 00:43:06,644
Speaker 2: in with the right hand, picked the right spot, and

854
00:43:06,684 --> 00:43:09,204
Speaker 2: they just happened to have it, so be it. But

855
00:43:09,404 --> 00:43:11,884
Speaker 2: at least you know that you did everything possible to

856
00:43:11,884 --> 00:43:15,124
Speaker 2: put yourself in the situation to win. And I think

857
00:43:15,164 --> 00:43:18,604
Speaker 2: that everyone would do well too to remember that lesson

858
00:43:18,964 --> 00:43:19,724
Speaker 2: and to not be.

859
00:43:19,764 --> 00:43:22,324
Speaker 1: Like, but what happens if I lose? I can't.

860
00:43:22,724 --> 00:43:25,644
Speaker 2: You cannot have that sort of risk averse thinking going

861
00:43:25,684 --> 00:43:28,244
Speaker 2: in that said, you know, I'm going to you know,

862
00:43:28,324 --> 00:43:31,564
Speaker 2: my plan for today is to just play well, try

863
00:43:31,604 --> 00:43:35,004
Speaker 2: to pick good spots, and hope for the best, because

864
00:43:35,044 --> 00:43:37,204
Speaker 2: you do need to you do need to run well

865
00:43:37,284 --> 00:43:41,164
Speaker 2: in these in these tournaments, and patience is important and

866
00:43:41,204 --> 00:43:43,924
Speaker 2: not panicking is really really important because a lot of

867
00:43:43,964 --> 00:43:46,084
Speaker 2: people when they start, you know, when their chips start

868
00:43:46,164 --> 00:43:49,124
Speaker 2: going down, they start making decisions they shouldn't, They start

869
00:43:49,124 --> 00:43:51,684
Speaker 2: taking risks they shouldn't to try to build back up,

870
00:43:52,364 --> 00:43:55,164
Speaker 2: and that's not a good mindset. So I will try

871
00:43:55,164 --> 00:43:56,364
Speaker 2: to be zen going into.

872
00:43:56,284 --> 00:43:58,644
Speaker 3: The day and the main event. I mean benefits for

873
00:43:58,684 --> 00:44:02,004
Speaker 3: people who have made like a deep run before. I think,

874
00:44:02,084 --> 00:44:04,404
Speaker 3: I mean, you see one thing that was good. I

875
00:44:04,444 --> 00:44:06,084
Speaker 3: made this deep run last year, which will not be

876
00:44:06,084 --> 00:44:08,924
Speaker 3: repeated now obviously, But like you, you get that monkey

877
00:44:08,964 --> 00:44:13,444
Speaker 3: off your back, and I felt loose. In What I

878
00:44:13,444 --> 00:44:16,404
Speaker 3: think is I think you'd mostly rather be looser than

879
00:44:16,444 --> 00:44:18,284
Speaker 3: tighter when you're playing poker. I don't mean in terms

880
00:44:18,284 --> 00:44:20,884
Speaker 3: of like how you construct your ranges, right, that's a

881
00:44:20,884 --> 00:44:23,204
Speaker 3: different type of looser tight yep. I mean in terms of, like,

882
00:44:23,844 --> 00:44:29,164
Speaker 3: in terms of your vibe and your mood. I I

883
00:44:29,204 --> 00:44:32,964
Speaker 3: don't think there's any harm from looking at the main

884
00:44:33,004 --> 00:44:36,204
Speaker 3: event as quote just another poker tournament, right, I think

885
00:44:36,244 --> 00:44:38,884
Speaker 3: that's more good than harmful. Now that might mean that,

886
00:44:39,004 --> 00:44:41,284
Speaker 3: like now, strategically, their differences I don't apply to any

887
00:44:41,324 --> 00:44:43,804
Speaker 3: other tournament, right. And there are things like it's more

888
00:44:43,844 --> 00:44:46,364
Speaker 3: worth it to get your rest and your fitness and

889
00:44:46,404 --> 00:44:48,764
Speaker 3: eat well instead of the cheap burger or whatever right

890
00:44:48,764 --> 00:44:51,724
Speaker 3: on the break, right, the expected value difference is higher.

891
00:44:52,924 --> 00:44:56,004
Speaker 3: But like you know, people who have success in the

892
00:44:56,044 --> 00:44:58,404
Speaker 3: main tend to have repeated success because they've been there before.

893
00:44:58,564 --> 00:45:00,604
Speaker 3: And I have anything to prove, and like, I think

894
00:45:00,644 --> 00:45:03,724
Speaker 3: that's usually that's usually helpful any tournament where patience is

895
00:45:03,804 --> 00:45:04,604
Speaker 3: very rewarded.

896
00:45:05,404 --> 00:45:09,564
Speaker 2: Yep, absolutely so. So you know, here here's hoping that

897
00:45:10,524 --> 00:45:12,564
Speaker 2: I will be rewarded today. I will do my best,

898
00:45:12,644 --> 00:45:15,204
Speaker 2: but whatever happens, I just hope that I'm happy with

899
00:45:15,244 --> 00:45:16,564
Speaker 2: my decisions at the end of the day.

900
00:45:18,884 --> 00:45:20,804
Speaker 3: May you want to wrap it up? I mean I think,

901
00:45:21,124 --> 00:45:23,004
Speaker 3: you know, yeah, a lot of politics, a little bit poker,

902
00:45:23,044 --> 00:45:25,204
Speaker 3: but trust me, listeners, it'll be the reverse of that

903
00:45:25,404 --> 00:45:26,484
Speaker 3: in some episodes in the future.

904
00:45:27,004 --> 00:45:27,964
Speaker 1: That's absolutely right.

905
00:45:28,524 --> 00:45:31,604
Speaker 2: But with that, I am going to go and prepare

906
00:45:31,684 --> 00:45:34,164
Speaker 2: to play day three of the main I'm.

907
00:45:34,044 --> 00:45:36,044
Speaker 3: Going to go and enter some other event where I'm sad.

908
00:45:36,884 --> 00:45:43,404
Speaker 3: I'm sad, sad with the losers, the loser bracket.

909
00:45:45,044 --> 00:45:47,604
Speaker 1: Good luck, good luck. You are my favorite loser.

910
00:45:47,804 --> 00:45:48,164
Speaker 3: Thank you.

911
00:45:52,604 --> 00:45:55,844
Speaker 2: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kannakova and.

912
00:45:55,924 --> 00:45:56,724
Speaker 3: Me Nate Silver.

913
00:45:57,604 --> 00:46:01,284
Speaker 2: The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia.

914
00:46:01,924 --> 00:46:05,804
Speaker 2: This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer

915
00:46:05,884 --> 00:46:09,364
Speaker 2: is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

916
00:46:10,164 --> 00:46:12,564
Speaker 3: And if you want to listen to and add free version.

917
00:46:12,604 --> 00:46:15,244
Speaker 3: Sign up for Pushkin Plus for six thirty nine a month,

918
00:46:15,484 --> 00:46:18,484
Speaker 3: you get access to ad free listening. Thanks for tuning in.